We’re back for the MLB second half. Need to have a big one to turn a profit as we closed poorly before the break and are sitting -12.2 Units on MLB this season. I wanted to take a peek at my futures bets to see how we are sitting coming out of my Pre-season predictions for you all here at TheOddsbreakers.com. Speaking of futures my NFL Pre-season preview articles will start soon and my Football package will be available to subscribers right here.
So how do we look so far? Here’s the list of my Pre-season plays and where I think they come in.
Cincinnati Reds OVER 82.5 47-50. They’ll need a nice second half, but it’s possible.
San Francisco Giants UNDER 81.5 47-50. Also could go either way, but SF has easiest remaining MLB schedule
Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 103.5 56-41. Sitting good here. They’d need to go 48-17 for me to lose.
Oakland Athletics OVER 58.5 37-61. On Pace here, but could go either way.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 84.5 48-48. Have a chance here, but they have the hardest remaining schedule in MLB.
Baltimore Orioles OVER 90.5 58-38. I need them to play .500 over the remainder which I believe will happen.
How about we start the second half off with a winner….
My Analysis today turns to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA where the Seattle Mariners (52-46) will host the Houston Astros (50-46) at 10:10 ET. The current line sits with the Mariners as slight favorites at -116 (Astros -104) with an Over/Under of 7 juiced to the Over at -120. Game time temperature will be 72 degrees under partly clear skies with the wind blowing in slightly from left at roughly 8mph.
The Astros have been playing very well of late going 17-6 since June 19th and climbing back from 7 games under .500. They did have a very easy schedule in that stretch, but had both pitching and hitting working well for them.
They will start Hunter Brown on Friday night coming out of the break. Brown has a 4.39 ERA overall, but is due for some improvement with a 3.69 xFIP. He is striking out 9.61 batters per 9 innings and walking 3.48. His struggles arise when he has issues with the long ball with a career 1.31 HR/9 allowed. Across his last ten starts since May 22nd however he only has one blip on his game log where he got hammered for 7 runs against the Twins. The other 9 starts have all been QS, and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 8 of those outings.
The Mariners have been trending the other direction going 8-15 since June 19th and dropping from a peak of 13 games over .500. They have scored just 3.60 Runs per game during that span.
The Mariners will start ace Luis Castillo who has a 3.53 ERA with a 3.82 xFIP. He has been solid with a 8.90 K/9 and a 2.61 BB/9 and his numbers are consistent with his career norms which are excellent.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? I am looking at a couple of key metrics in making a differentiation between two very similar pitchers taking the mound tonight.
The main emphasis for me in this match-up is the offense for the Mariners. Or in reality the lack thereof. The M’s just can’t seem to put the ball in play consistently as they lead MLB in strikeouts by a considerable margin. Overall they are now 28th in runs scored in MLB, and 28th in OPS. That’s not sustainable to remain a playoff contender, no matter how good that rotation and bullpen are. They will need to find a way to add some offense at the deadline. The OPS against righties is all the way down at .664.
On the flip side Houston is up to 10th in runs scored at 4.76 runs per game. They are third in strikeouts only recording 669 so far on the season (Seattle is at 1,013). OPS is 9th overall at .740.
With the Mariners not putting the ball in play and coming off the break I like a low scoring game here, the Astros offense will have the edge and end up being the difference in this contest.
We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting comes on to break down the 2024 Open Championship! First, Kiev O’Neil does a quick Big 12 preview! What does the conference look like as a whole? Which teams are fade teams? Who is he betting on for 2024? Next, Patrick comes on and the guys get right into the 2024 Open Championship. What does the course play like? Who are the contenders? Which golfers fit the Royal Troon? Who are we betting on for some Free Picks? Get Patrick’s wonderful article right here! https://theoddsbreakers.com/the-2024-open-championship-preview-picks/ Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $150 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 1ST 2024
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to do a 2024 Big 10 Preview! We go over some of the major changes of every team in the Big 10. We talk about positions, advanced stats, returning production, new coaches and more. We also share some Free Plays for you to enjoy with some surprises for the big football season. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $150 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 1ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise. Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
Robert MacIntyre was defeated by a birdie on the 72nd hole at the Genesis Scottish Open in 2023. This year, he earned sweet revenge by birdieing the final hole on Sunday at The Renaissance Club, overtaking Adam Scott to win his home country’s open by a shot. MacIntyre is now a two-time winner this season, having won the RBC Canadian Open just six weeks ago. He is the first Scottish golfer since 1988 to win more than once in a season. With this victory, he moved to a career-best 16th in the world ranking.
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler has maintained his dominant form on the PGA Tour, winning six of his last ten starts. After a brief hiatus following his playoff victory over Tom Kim at the Travelers Championship, Scheffler returns to action. Both of his Major Championship victories have come at Augusta National, and he’ll be looking to expand his already impressive resume this week. Scheffler has competed in the Open Championship three times before, finishing T8 in 2021, T21 in 2022, and T23 in 2023.
So thrilled to welcome Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns to the iconic Ailsa course at @TrumpTurnberry, now ranked No. 8 in the world, just in time for their preparation for the Open Championship! We look forward to hosting you both at our Trump properties again in the future!🙌 pic.twitter.com/yaAmwOfujq
In preparation for this week’s event, he played the Ailsa Course at Trump Turnberry in Turnberry, South Ayrshire, Scotland, along with Sam Burns. The Ailsa Course was originally designed by 1883 Open Champion Willie Fernie and was recently redesigned by Martin Ebert from 2015 to 2016.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. He has now placed inside the top 15 in each of his last six starts, including victories at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and the Wells Fargo Championship. McIlroy has competed in the Open Championship fourteen times, with his best finish coming in 2014 at Royal Liverpool, where he won by two strokes. The last time the Open Championship was held at Royal Troon, in 2016, McIlroy finished T5.
Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm withdrew from the U.S. Open last month due to an infected cut on his left foot. After taking some time off, he has since recovered. In his last two starts on the LIV Tour, he finished T3 at LIV Nashville and T10 at LIV Andalucia. Rahm boasts two Major Championships: the 2021 U.S. Open and the 2023 Masters Tournament. His best performance in an Open Championship came last year at Royal Liverpool, where he finished T2. Rahm also competed at Royal Troon in 2016, the last time this venue hosted the event, finishing T59.
Brian Harman
Brian Harman captured his first Major Championship last year at Royal Liverpool, winning by an impressive six shots. He now aims to become the first golfer since Padraig Harrington (2007-2008) to win the Open Championship in back-to-back years. Harman enters this event in good form, having finished inside the top 25 in each of his last three starts.
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele won his first Major Championship two months ago at Valhalla. He has been outstanding this season, finishing outside the top 25 only once in seventeen starts. Since winning the PGA Championship, Schauffele has maintained his strong form, finishing T8 at the Memorial Tournament, T7 at the U.S. Open, T13 at the Travelers Championship, and T15 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. He has played in the Open Championship six times before, with his best performance coming in 2018 at Carnoustie, where he finished T2, two shots behind Francesco Molinari.
Bryson DeChambeau
Bryson DeChambeau won his second U.S. Open last month at Pinehurst No. 2. Following that victory, he finished T3 at LIV Nashville and 9th at LIV Andalucia. DeChambeau has competed in the Open Championship six times, with his best performance coming in 2022 at St. Andrews, where he finished T8, marking his only top 10 in this event.
Tiger Woods returns to action after missing the cut at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. The only Major Championship where he made the cut this year was the Masters Tournament, as he also failed to make the cut at the PGA Championship. In his only other appearance on the PGA Tour this season, he withdrew from the Genesis Invitational. This will be his fifteenth appearance at the Open Championship, where he claimed victory in 2005 at St. Andrews and 2006 at Royal Liverpool. He has played at Royal Troon twice before, finishing T24 in 1997 and T9 in 2004. When Royal Troon hosted the tournament again in 2016, Tiger was out injured. He’s currently +260 on Superbook to make the cut.
2016 Open Championship
Royal Troon has hosted the Open Championship nine times, with the most recent edition taking place in 2016. In that tournament, Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson engaged in a thrilling final round, with Stenson emerging victorious after shooting a remarkable 63, matching Johnny Miller for the lowest closing round by a major champion. He finished at 20-under 264, setting the record for the lowest 72-hole score ever in a major. Stenson became only the fourth player to win the Open Championship with all four rounds in the 60s, joining the ranks of Tiger Woods, Nick Price, and Greg Norman.
Course Architect: George Strath and Willie Fernie (1888); James Braid (1923)
Recent Renovations:
Mackenzie and Ebert (2014 and 2021)
After the Prestwick greenkeeper, Charlie Hunter, and Troon professionals George Strath and Willie Fernie carried out the early work in laying out and developing the course at Troon, James Braid was responsible for toughening the layout for its first Open in 1923.
To read more about the renovation, you can click the following link.
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Royal Liverpool – The 2023 Open Championship – RESULTS
Royal St. George’s – The 2021 Open Championship – RESULTS
Royal Portrush – The 2019 Open Championship – RESULTS
Designer Link (Willie Fernie):
St. Andrews (Old Course) – Willie Fernie Renovation – The 2022 Open
Royal Troon Golf Club, located in Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland, has a rich history dating back to its founding in 1878. Initially established as a six-hole course in 1878 by Old Tom Morris protégé Charlie Hunter. It was quickly expanded to 18 holes by 1888 under the guidance of the club’s first professional, George Strath. The course has since undergone several modifications, most notably by renowned designers such as Willie Fernie, James Braid, and Alister MacKenzie, enhancing its reputation as one of the premier links courses in the world. Royal Troon gained royal status in 1978, celebrating its centenary. The club has hosted The Open Championship nine times, with the first being in 1923 and most recently in 2016.
In addition to the Old Course, Royal Troon also has two other courses, the Portland and the Craigend course. Troon’s Portland Course, originally laid out by Willie Fernie in 1895, was redesigned by Dr Alister MacKenzie in 1921 and was used for qualifying in The Open in 1923. It has its own clubhouse and is located slightly further inland and further north than the Old Course, with no holes bordering the Firth of Clyde. The club also has a nine-hole, par-3 layout called Craigend.
The British Open, often referred to simply as The Open, is one of the most prestigious golf tournaments in the world and the oldest of the four major championships in professional golf. First held in 1860 at Prestwick Golf Club in Scotland, Willie Park Sr. won the inaugural tournament. Over the years, The Open has grown in stature, attracting the best golfers from around the globe. The tournament is renowned for its rotation of historic links courses, including St Andrews, Royal Troon, and Carnoustie, each presenting unique challenges with their coastal winds and rugged terrains. The Claret Jug, introduced in 1872, has become one of the most coveted trophies in golf, symbolizing excellence and tradition. Since 1949, the silver medal is awarded to the leading amateur, provided that the player completes all 72 holes. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are the only silver medal winners who have gone on to win the Open. The Open has witnessed legendary performances, such as Tom Watson’s five victories and Jack Nicklaus’s three, as well as dramatic moments like Jean van de Velde’s heartbreaking finish at Carnoustie in 1999. Managed by The R&A, The Open continues to uphold its legacy, blending tradition with modernity, and remains a pinnacle event in the golfing calendar, celebrated for its rich history and the rigorous test it presents to the world’s best players.
Following The Open in 2004, The R&A commissioned a review of the course as part of a broader study of all Open venues to assess potential improvements for the modern game. The review involved extensive historical research into the evolution of the course, including an examination of club archives, old newspaper articles, and past aerial and ground photography. A noteworthy illustration of the 1923 Open layout was also discovered. Additionally, club members with long memories and former green staff were consulted, contributing to the proposals that were ultimately considered by the Club and The R&A, leading to the implementation of certain adjustments outlined in the accompanying booklet.
It’s important to note that the review of the Old Course did not result in significant lengthening. The course measured 7,175 yards in 2004 and played at 7,190 yards in 2016, with only a few holes lengthened by a minor amount.
While minor adjustments were made to every hole for the 145th Open in 2016, the major changes focused on the 9th, 10th, and 15th holes. The 9th green’s backdrop of trees was replaced with a dunescape, the old bunker on the 10th hole was restored, and the tees and initial part of the 15th fairway were moved left of the 14th hole, reinstating the old line of the hole.
Before the 2024 Open Championship, nine new tee boxes have been added to accommodate the nearly 200-yard increase in the Old Course’s length. All three par 5s have been lengthened. Since the course last hosted The Open eight years ago, it has increased in length by 2.8%, matching the average distance gain of 2.8% for PGA TOUR players during that period. Additionally, three new bunkers have been introduced on the first fairway, the sixth fairway, and next to the sixth green.
Alongside the renovations at the Old Course, the club’s nine-hole par-3 course, Craigend, underwent a dramatic redesign and was relocated to higher, drier ground, providing target greens for the temporary practice range for The Open.
Hole
Par
2016 Yardage
2024 Yardage
No. 1
4
367
366
No. 2
4
390
389
No. 3
4
377
376
No. 4
5
555
599
No. 5
3
209
220
No. 6
5
601
623
No. 7
4
401
403
No. 8
3
123
123
No. 9
4
422
440
No. 10
4
451
450
No. 11
4
482
498
No. 12
4
430
451
No. 13
4
473
473
No. 14
3
178
200
No. 15
4
499
502
No. 16
5
554
572
No. 17
3
220
242
No. 18
4
458
458
71
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (Event – Open Championship):
264, Henrik Stenson (2016 at Royal Troon)
18-Hole Record (Event – Open Championship):
62, Branden Grace (3rd round, 2017 at Royal Birkdale)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Course – Royal Troon):
264, Henrik Stenson (2016)
18-Hole Record (Course – Royal Troon):
63, Henrik Stenson (4th round, 2016), Phil Mickelson (1st round, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by George Strath and Willie Fernie in 1888, the Old Course at Royal Troon features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.
Royal Troon is located on Scotland’s west coast, along the sandy, windswept shores of the Firth of Clyde, a large bay bordered by Northern Ireland to the south and the Kintyre Peninsula to the north, opening up to the North Atlantic.
The course offers a distinct contrast between its two nines. The front nine presents players with scoring opportunities, particularly on holes No. 1-6, which play downwind. As players reach holes No. 7-9, the challenge increases slightly. On the back nine, golfers must strive to avoid any high scores, as making par is an excellent outcome on most, if not all, holes.
If players decide the be a agressive on No. 3, and it plays downwind, there are several golfers with great odds to make birdie or better on that hole.
Birdie or Better – Hole 3 (Rd. 1) Clark (+245) McIlroy (+210) Dechambeau (+225) https://t.co/XYr6IDIaRj
— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2024
The four Par 3’s (No. 5, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 17) on the Old Course at Royal Troon range between 123 yards and 242 yards. In 2016, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par with the most difficult being, No. 17 (+0.234). In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-255 yards.
No. 5 ‘Greenan’, 220 Yards, Par 3: The old Kennedy Castle ruin just south of Ayr lends its name to the short fifth hole.
A fine short hole requiring a well-struck long iron shot to carry into the heart of the green. The green has dangerous bunkers to the left, front, and right. A difficult hole, which has the prevailing wind blowing off the beach.
No. 8 ‘Postage Stamp’, 123 Yards, Par 3: Originally called “Ailsa” because there is a perfect view of the rocky islet of that name, from the tee. The smallness of the putting surface accounted for the current name when William Park writing in “Golf Illustrated” said, ”A pitching surface skimmed down to the size of a Postage Stamp”.
Much has been written about the famous eighth hole at Royal Troon, aptly named the “Postage Stamp”. The tee is on high ground and a dropping shot is played over a gully to a long but extremely narrow green set into the side of a large sandhill. Two bunkers protect the left side of the green while a large crater bunker shields the approach. Any mistake on the right will find one of the two deep bunkers with near vertical faces. There is no safe way to play this hole, the ball must find the green with the tee-shot. Many top players have come to grief at this the shortest hole in Open Championship golf.”
No. 14 ‘Alton’, 200 Yards, Par 3: Named after the part of the Fullarton estate, to the north side of the railway.
A difficult par-3 following on from a number of brutal par-4s. This hole usually plays back into the headwind, slightly out of the left, and, although not a long hole, can wreak havoc on scorecards. Club selection is especially important on the 14th, with bunkers lurking short and the green widening out long. Despite the yardage, par is not to be sniffed at here, and Alton can certainly hit back if you do not strike your tee shot perfectly.
No. 17 ‘Rabbit’, 242 Yards, Par 3: A popular location for members of the Leporidae family. Clearly the passing of one hundred years has not diminished the rabbit’s enthusiasm for the Links.
The last and most difficult of the short holes. The tee shot can be as much as a driver, depending upon the wind. The plateau green falls away sharply on both sides and is well guarded by bunkers, short and on the right and left-hand sides.
There are eleven Par 4s on the Old Course at Royal Troon.No. 1 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 366 yards with the longest being No. 15, playing 502 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course in 2016 was No. 11 (+0.559).
No. 7 ‘Tel-el-Kebir’, 403 Yards, Par 4: Named after a battle fought in 1882 just before the hole was created.
The seventh is visually stunning from a slightly raised tee, and the first hole at Royal Troon to be played directly away from the sea. Tel-El-Kebir is not an overly long hole, and most players will be able to take a long iron or fairway wood from the tee, but the challenge on this hole is accuracy. An array of fairway bunkers intimidate players from the tee, while the green is among the longest and narrowest on the course.
No. 9 ‘The Monk’, 440 Yards, Par 4: Faces towards the village of Monkton.
The Monk is a tricky hole to close out the front nine, and will typically signal the end of the downwind holes at Royal Troon. Although fairly generous off the tee, the ninth is not short in length and the green is tricky with run-off areas on both sides. Players who manage to avoid the perfectly placed pair of bunkers to the left of the fairway from their tee shot will usually have a blind second shot into the green, which is sometimes difficult to hold downwind.
No. 11 ‘The Railway’, 498 Yards, Par 4: Named after the railway line, which runs alongside the 11th hole.
While Sandhills is difficult, The Railway takes the honour of being the hardest hole at Royal Troon and one of the toughest in golf. Once again, a significant carry is required from the back tees to a fairway angled away to the right. The ideal line involves a carry-over of gorse bushes and the bravery to not be put off by the out-of-bounds railway line running tight along the right-hand side. While the opening shot can vary in difficulty depending on tee position, the second remains devilish in all circumstances, with the railway line always in play, gorse bushes down the left-hand side, and a lone greenside bunker awaiting any shots that ‘bail out’.
No. 13 ‘Burmah’, 473 Yards, Par 4: The Club’s founding Captain, James Dickie had trading connections with Burmah, now Myanmar, and it is thought this is the reason for the name of the hole.
Continuing the trend of tough holes on the back nine, Burmah is another tricky test. Find the tight fairway off the tee, though, and the hole becomes much simpler, partially due to its lack of bunkering. Finding the green is still no easy feat, as the target is small and raised.
No. 15 ‘Crosbie’, 502 Yards, Par 4: The name given to a small fortification near Alton, which was the home of the Fullarton Family for centuries.
Another hole, another daunting challenge on the back nine at Royal Troon. This time, Crosbie offers up another difficult tee shot, albeit one that is at least straighter than on some of the previous holes. That does not make it any easier, with hazards in full view, be it the scattering of fairway bunkers or the heavy rough down the left. You will often be faced with a blind second shot to a green a fair distance away, with bunkers protecting the left-hand side. There is room down the right, utilizing the contouring, but that requires a significant carry as a well-placed bunker is there to gobble up poorly struck shots.
Let’s take a look at the 18th at @RoyalTroonGC The ideal drive on this par 4, eighteenth is straight down the middle to avoid the bunkers on either side of the fairway. These bunkers have the steepest face, there’s no way you’re hitting the green from there. @TheOpenpic.twitter.com/5v9uotlhe3
No. 18 ‘Craigend’, 458 Yards, Par 4: The name of the old farm demolished at the turn of the century has given its name in perpetuity to the closing hole. The Old Course and the Portland Course are formed on the Craigend grazing.
The final chapter of a wonderful 18 and testing back nine, Craigend has all the hallmarks of a great finishing hole. Three bunkers at 25-yard intervals ensure that anything leaked left off the tee will be lucky to avoid penalty. A further bunker down the right at driver’s length will persuade many to lay up, especially with The Open on the line. From the center of the fairway, a mid-to-long iron will await, with a well-bunkered green short and right. Fail to carry the cross bunkers short of the putting surface and a likely five awaits, while anything leaked slightly right at all will usually bring the same result. With out-of-bounds lurking behind the putting surface, there are no easy shots until your ball is on the green.
There are three Par 5’s on the Old Course at Royal Troon, No. 4, No. 6, & No. 16. They all played under par in 2016, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.813. No. 16 did get lengthened out nearly twenty yards so it will play slightly more difficult but I would still expect it to be the easiest hole on the course.
No. 4 ‘Dunure’, 599 Yards, Par 5: The village of Dunure and its ruined Castle sits proudly overlooking the sea south of Ayr.
The first of the par fives, the long fourth is a dog-leg to the right. A deep bunker positioned right, in the neck of the dog-leg, adds danger with any attempt to cut the corner too close. The second shot should be played into position to give the best line for a short iron shot into the two-tiered green.
No. 6 ‘Turnberry’, 623 Yards, Par 5: The point at Turnberry can be seen from Troon. The lighthouse marks the site of Turnberry Castle childhood home of the Bruce.
Troon has the longest and the shortest holes in Open Championship golf and at 601 yards, the sixth is the longest. An arrow straight tee shot is required to finish between the fairway bunkers to the left and right. The second shot with a fairway wood should be aimed slightly left to avoid the bunker on the right, which will put you in the perfect position for a soft pitch to a long and narrow green beautifully framed by sand dunes on both sides.
No. 16 ‘Well’, 572 Yards, Par 5: A freshwater well was situated not far from the house of the Course Manager.
The first genuine respite of the back nine arrives at the 16th with Well. The first par-5 since the 6th, this hole provides some much-needed relief to players battling to save par, and provides a very good birdie chance, despite usually playing against the wind. Yet even the 16th provides no free handouts, as a perfectly placed burn that cuts through the center of the fairway can often take the driver out of the hands of all but the longest hitters. This leaves a very long second shot, which can render the green out of reach. A cross bunker ensures a hit-and-hope strategy will likely fail too, ensuring most players will be left with a shot of between 80 and 100 yards to possibly the most abundantly bunkered green on the course. A birdie chance, for sure, but you most certainly will have to work for it.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Royal Troon.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Ludvig Aberg
Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Bryson DeChambeau
Davis Thompson
Joaquin Niemann
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed on the Old Course at Royal Troon.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Corey Conners
Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Aberg
Tom Hoge
Sepp Straka
Viktor Hovland
Ben Griffin
Rory McIlroy
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
C.T. Pan
Davis Thompson
Justin Thomas
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka
Collin Morikawa
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Denny McCarthy
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Greens on the Old Course at Royal Troon are Browntop Bentgrass with Fescue.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Matt Fitzpatrick
J.T. Poston
Denny McCarthy
Keegan Bradley
Tyrrell Hatton
Xander Schauffele
Aaron Rai
Cameron Smith
Viktor Hovland
Victor Perez
Strokes Gained: Total (High Wind)
Based on the current weather forecast gusts of 15+mph are expected for the majority of days at the Open Championship.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Sungjae Im
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Akshay Bhatia
Patrick Cantlay
Denny McCarthy
Wyndham Clark
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s on the Old Course at Royal Troon range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-250 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Sami Valimaki
Adam Schenk
Akshay Bhatia
Guido Migliozzi
Matthew Southgate
Gary Woodland
Dean Burmester
Matt Wallace
Tyrrell Hatton
Taylor Moore
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
Five of the eleven Par 4’s on the Old Course at Royal Troon range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Ludvig Aberg
Brooks Koepka
Collin Morikawa
Marcel Siem
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Lucas Glover
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
Two of the three Par 5’s on the Old Course at Royal Troon range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Billy Horschel
Davis Thompson
Tony Finau
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Sam Horsfield
Patrick Cantlay
Jason Day
Bogey Avoidance
The Old Course at Royal Troon ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Hideki Matsuyama
Bryson DeChambeau
Tommy Fleetwood
Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores. In the most recent Open held at Royal Troon, the top four finishers ranked 7th, 1st, 4th, and 3rd in Scrambling.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Alexander Bjork
Rory McIlroy
Brian Harman
Sam Burns
Xander Schauffele
Denny McCarthy
Tommy Fleetwood
Guido Migliozzi
Sand Saves Gained
A player’s ability to get up and down from greenside bunkers, saving par or better will be crucial this week. Successfully executing sand saves can help a player maintain momentum during a round. Avoiding bogeys or worse from bunkers prevents scorecard damage and keeps a player in contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Moore
Billy Horschel
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tommy Fleetwood
Sam Burns
Justin Rose
Tyrrell Hatton
Hideki Matsuyama
Russell Henley
Matteo Manassero
Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
Most approach shots on the Old Course at Royal Troon come from the 150-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Kurt Kitayama
C.T. Pan
Corey Conners
Matteo Manassero
Keegan Bradley
Guido Migliozzi
Ryan Fox
Jon Rahm
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Brooks Koepka
Nicolai Højgaard
Ludvig Aberg
Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Marcel Siem
Justin Rose
Byeong Hun An
Alex Cejka
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience on the Old Course at Royal Troon has proven to be slightly advantageous.
The Field:
This year’s Open Championship will feature a total of 158 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
The Open Champions aged 60 or under on 21 July 2024 (for all Champions up to 2024)
The Open Champions aged 55 or under on 21 July 2024 (for all Champions from 2024)
The Open Champions for 2013-2023
First 10 anyone tying for 10th place in The 151st Open at Royal Liverpool in 2023
The first 50 players on the OWGR for Week 21, 2024
First 30 in the Final Race to Dubai Rankings for 2023
The BMW PGA Championship winners for 2021-2023
First 5 DP World Tour members and any Race to Dubai members tying for 5th place, not otherwise exempt, in the top 20 of the Race to Dubai Rankings on completion of the 2024 BMW International
The US Open Champions for 2019-2024
The Masters Tournament Champions for 2019-2024
The PGA Champions for 2018-2024
The PLAYERS Champions for 2022-2024
Top 30 players for the Final 2023 FedEx Cup
First 5 PGA TOUR members and any PGA TOUR members tying for 5th place, not exempt in the top 20 of the PGA TOUR FedEx Cup for 2024 on completion of the 2024 Travelers Championship
The 117th VISA Open de Argentina 2024 Champion
The first 5 players on the 2024 Federations Ranking List as of closing date
The Japan Open Champion for 2023
The Senior Open Champion for 2023
The Amateur Champion for 2024
The US Amateur Champion for 2023
The European Amateur Champion for 2024
The Mark H McCormack Medal (Men’s WORLD AMATEUR GOLF RANKING) winner for 2023
The Asia-Pacific Amateur Champion 2023
The Latin America Amateur Champion 2024
The Open Amateur Series winner 2024
The Africa Amateur Champion 2024
Medical Exemption
The Open Qualifying Series
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Brian Harman (2023), Cameron Smith (2022), Collin Morikawa (2021), Shane Lowry (2019), Francesco Molinari (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Henrik Stenson (2016), Zach Johnson (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014), Phil Mickelson (2013), Ernie Els (2012, 2002), Darren Clarke (2011), Louis Oosthuizen (2010), Stewart Cink (2009), Pádraig Harrington (2008, 2007), Tiger Woods (2006, 2005, 2000), Todd Hamilton (2004), Justin Leonard (1997), John Daly (1995)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Aguri Iwasaki, Akshay Bhatia, Altin van der Merwe(a), Andy Ogletree, Angel Hidalgo Portillo, Austin Eckroat, Calum Scott(a), Charlie Lindh, Daniel Brown, David Puig, Davis Thompson, Denwit David Boriboonsub, Dominic Clemons(a), Elvis Smylie, Eric Cole, Gordon Sargent(a), Guntaek Koh, Jack McDonald, Jacob Skov Olesen(a), Jaime Montojo Fernandez(a), Jasper Stubbs(a), Jesper Svensson, Joe Dean, Kazuma Kobori, Liam Nolan(a), Ludvig Aberg, Luis Masaveu(a), Mason Andersen, Matthew Dodd-Berry(a), Ryan van Velzen, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Hutsby, Santiago De la Fuente(a), Sebastian Soderberg, Stephan Jaeger, Tom McKibbin, Tommy Morrison(a), Vincent Norrman
Players with ties to Scotland in the Field:
Birthplace:
Ewen Furguson – Glasgow, Scotland
Robert MacIntyre – Oban, Scotland
Jack McDonald – Kilmarnock, Scotland
Calum Scott – Nairn, Scotland
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
IN: Richard Mansell (Open Qualifying Series – Scottish Open)
IN: Alex Noren (Open Qualifying Series – Scottish Open)
IN: Aaron Rai (Open Qualifying Series – Scottish Open)
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Scottie Scheffler (+450) returns to action after a three-week break. He has won six of his last ten starts, most recently capturing the Travelers Championship. Scheffler has played in the Open Championship three times, finishing T8 in 2021, T21 in 2022, and T23 in 2023.
Rory McIlroy (+750) finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. He has placed inside the top 15 in each of his last six starts, including wins at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and the Wells Fargo Championship. McIlroy has competed in the Open Championship fourteen times, with his best finish being a victory in 2014 at Royal Liverpool. He finished T5 at Royal Troon in 2016, the last time the Open was held at this venue.
Xander Schauffele (+1100) won his first Major Championship at Valhalla two months ago. He has been exceptional this season, finishing outside the top 25 only once in seventeen starts. Since winning the PGA Championship, Schauffele has maintained his form with finishes of T8 at the Memorial Tournament, T7 at the U.S. Open, T13 at the Travelers Championship, and T15 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He has played in the Open Championship six times, with his best finish coming in 2018 at Carnoustie, where he placed T2, two shots behind Francesco Molinari.
Ludvig Aberg (+1400) held the 54-hole lead at the Genesis Scottish Open but finished T4. He has been close to securing his second PGA Tour victory this season, finishing runner-up at both the Masters Tournament and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Aberg will be making his Open Championship debut this week.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1400) won his second U.S. Open last month at Pinehurst No. 2. Since then, he finished T3 at LIV Nashville and 9th at LIV Andalucia. DeChambeau has played in the Open Championship six times, with his best performance coming in 2022 at St. Andrews, where he finished T8, his only top 10 in this event.
Collin Morikawa (+1400) finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. He has placed inside the top 15 in ten of his last eleven PGA Tour starts. Despite his strong play, Morikawa is still seeking his first victory since the 2023 ZOZO Championship. He has played in the Open Championship three times, winning in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, but he has missed the cut in the last two editions.
Will There Be a Playoff at the Open Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)
The Open Championship has not ended in a playoff since 2015 when Zach Johnson defeated Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen in a four-hole aggregate score playoff.
Royal Troon has hosted the Open Championship nine times before and the tournament ended in a playoff twice, in 2004 and 1989.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Open Championship? (Yes -175 / No +125)
In 2016, the last time Royal Troon hosted the Open Championship, there was one hole-in-one made by Louis Oosthuizen on No. 14. Since the last edition of the Open Championship at Royal Troon Hole No. 14 has been lengthened out by 22 yards.
In 2004 at the Open Championship, Ernie Els made the lone hole-in-one of the tournament on the iconic No. 8.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Brian Harman (-13) – Royal Liverpool
Price: 125-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Brian Harman
34th
17th
24th
22nd
1st
2022: Cameron Smith (-20) – St. Andrews
Price: 28-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Cameron Smith
15th
17th
30th
27th
1st
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) – Royal St. George’s Golf Course
Price: 40-1
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Shane Lowry (-15) – Royal Portrush Golf Club
Price: 70-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Brian Harman
T12 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T9 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T2 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
2022: Cameron Smith
T10 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T48 – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
T13 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2021: Collin Morikawa
T71 – abrdn Scottish Open (DPWT)
T4 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T14 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry
T34 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Open (DPWT)
T28 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T2 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (PGA)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Majors that year):
2023: Brian Harman
T43 – U.S. Open
MC – PGA Championship
MC – The Masters
2022: Cameron Smith
MC – U.S. Open
T13 – PGA Championship
T3 – The Masters
2021: Collin Morikawa
T4 – U.S. Open
T8 – PGA Championship
T18 – The Masters
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry
T28 – U.S. Open
T8 – PGA Championship
MC – The Masters
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Brian Harman
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
St Andrews
Royal St George’s
Royal Portrush
Carnoustie
Royal Birkdale
St Andrews
Royal Liverpool
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
Brian Harman
T6
T19
MC
MC
MC
MC
T26
2022: Cameron Smith
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
Royal St George’s
Royal Portrush
Carnoustie
Royal Birkdale
2021
2019
2018
2017
Cameron Smith
T33
T20
78
MC
2021: Collin Morikawa
Tournament Debut
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
The Open Championship
Carnoustie
Royal Birkdale
Royal Troon
St Andrews
Royal Liverpool
Muirfield
Royal Lytham & St Annes
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2010
Shane Lowry
MC
MC
MC
MC
T9
T32
T37
Picks:
Outrights:
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Tyrrell Hatton is coming into the Open Championship in good form winning LIV Nashville and finishing 3rd at LIV Andalucia. He’s also played well at the three prior Major Championships this season finishing T9 at the Masters Tournament, T63 at the PGA Championship, and T26 at the U.S. Open.
He’ll be playing in his twelfth Open Championship this week. Hatton struggled in this event in his first few editions missing the cut in each of his first four Open Championships. However, in his last two Open Championships Hatton finished T11 in 2022 at St. Andrews and T20 in 2023 at Royal Liverpool. Hatton finished T5 at Royal Troon in 2016 the last time the Open Championship was held at this venue.
In the last 24 rounds, Hatton ranks 5th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 17th in SG: Around the Green, and 50th in SG: Off the Tee. In terms of scoring, he ranks 12th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 19th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, and 48th in Bogey Avoidance. Hatton’s short game has also been great lately ranking 44th in Scrambling Gained and 6th in Sand Saves Gained.
Patrick Cantlay (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Patrick Cantlay is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T3 at the U.S. Open and T5 at the Travelers Championship. In addition to playing well at the U.S. Open, Cantlay also played well at Augusta National finishing T22 at the Masters Tournament.
He’ll be playing in his sixth Open Championship this week with his best performance coming back in 2022 at St. Andrews where he finished T8. Despite only having one top-10 finish in the Open Championship, Cantlay has only missed the cut once.
In the last 24 rounds, Cantlay ranks 33rd in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 16th in SG: Around the Green, and 50th in SG: Approach. In terms of scoring, he ranks 64th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 26th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 26th in Bogey Avoidance. Cantlay’s short game has also been great lately ranking 39th in both Scrambling Gained and Sand Saves Gained.
Cameron Smith (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Cameron Smith is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T9 at LIV Nashville, T6 at LIV Andalucia, and T32 at the U.S. Open. In addition to playing well at the U.S. Open, Smith also played well at Augusta National finishing T6 at the Masters Tournament.
He’ll be playing in his seventh Open Championship this week. Smith struggled in this event in his first two editions missing the cut in 2017 and finishing 78th in 2018. However, he turned things around in 2019 finishing T20 at Royal Portrush. Smith was able to build on that finish winning the Open Championship in 2022 at St. Andrews. Last year at Royal Liverpool, he finished T33 at Royal Liverpool.
In the last 24 rounds, Smith ranks 8th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 13th in SG: Around the Green, and 33rd in SG: Approach. In terms of scoring, he ranks 73rd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 56th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 13th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 17th in Bogey Avoidance.
Tom Kim (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Tom Kim has yet to win this season with his best chance coming last month at the Travelers Championship when he lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler. Following that, he struggled in the following week at Detroit Golf Club where he missed the cut. However, he rebounded last week at the Renaissance Club finishing T15.
He’ll be playing in his third Open Championship this week. He finished T47 in his tournament debut in 2022 at St. Andrews and T2 last year at Royal Liverpool.
In the last 24 rounds, Kim ranks 11th in SG: Off the Tee, 43rd in SG: Around the Green, and 15th in SG: Approach. In terms of scoring, he ranks 3rd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 18th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 19th in Bogey Avoidance. Kim’s short game has also been great lately ranking 52nd in both Scrambling Gained.
Joaquin Niemann (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Joaquin Niemann is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T3 at LIV Nashville, T6 at LIV Andalucia, and T32 at LIV Houston. He’s also won twice on the LIV Tour this season. Regarding Major Championships this season, Niemann finished T22 at the Masters Tournament and T39 at the PGA Championship.
He’ll be playing in his fifth Open Championship this week. He hasn’t had a ton of success at this event in the past missing the cut twice (2019, 2023) and finishing T59 (2021) and T53 (2022). That being said, he’s in much better form heading into this week’s event so I’m hopeful he can turn things around.
In the last 24 rounds, Niemann ranks 10th in SG: Off the Tee, 55th in SG: Around the Green, and 21st in SG: Approach. In terms of scoring, he ranks 67th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 7th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 49th in Bogey Avoidance. Niemann’s short game has also been good lately ranking 67th in Scrambling Gained and 46th in Sand Saves Gained.
Sungjae Im (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Sungjae Im is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T3 at the Travelers Championship, T12 at the John Deere Classic, and T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. He’s yet to win on the PGA Tour but did win the Woori Financial Group Championship on the KPGA. He started the season off strong playing well in his first two events but struggled for the next four months only recording one top-20 finish from January to April. He turned things around at the RBC Heritage, which sparked the good run he’s been on since.
He’ll be playing in his fourth Open Championship this week. Sungjae struggled in this event in his first two editions missing the cut in 2019 and finishing T81 in 2022. However last year at Royal Liverpool, he finished T20.
In the last 24 rounds, Sungjae ranks 25th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 8th in SG: Around the Green, 31st in SG: Off the Tee, and 29th in SG: Approach. In terms of scoring, he ranks 36th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 26th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 18th in Bogey Avoidance. His short game has also been great lately ranking 23rd in Scrambling Gained and 28th in Sand Saves Gained.
Wyndham Clark (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Wyndham Clark is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T9 at the Travelers Championship and T10 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s had his ups and downs this season but when he’s in good form he’s one of the best players on the PGA Tour. Clark also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a stateside course comp for this week’s event.
He’ll be playing in his third Open Championship this week. He finished T76 in his tournament debut in 2022 at St. Andrews and T33 last year at Royal Liverpool.
In the last 24 rounds, Clark ranks 24th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 71st in SG: Around the Green, and 31st in SG: Off the Tee. In terms of scoring, he ranks 7th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 90th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 91st in Bogey Avoidance. His short game has also been good lately ranking 51st in Scrambling Gained and 47th in Sand Saves Gained.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.22 Units
Top 20:
Tony Finau (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Tony Finau is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing inside the top 20 in each of his last five events. In his last two starts, he finished T3 at the U.S. Open and T5 at the Travelers Championship.
He’ll be playing in his eighth Open Championship this week. During that span, he has four top 20 finishes with his best performance in this event coming back in 2019 at Royal Portrush where he finished 3rd.
In the last 24 rounds, Finau ranks 3rd in SG: Approach and 9th in SG: Around the Green. In terms of scoring, he ranks 44th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 49th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 10th in Bogey Avoidance. Finau’s short game has also been great lately ranking 34th in Scrambling Gained and 50th in Sand Saves Gained.
Cameron Young (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Cameron Young is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T9 at the Travelers Championship and T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his last two starts.
He’ll be playing in his third Open Championship finishing runner-up at St Andrews in 2022 and T8 in 2023 at Royal Liverpool.
In the last 24 rounds, Young ranks 24th in SG: Off the Tee and 53rd in SG: Around the Green. In terms of scoring, he ranks 48th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 35th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 61st in Bogey Avoidance. Young’s putting on bentgrass surfaces has also been better than other surfaces.
Brian Harman (+225) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.25 Units
Brian Harman is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T21 in the U.S. Open, T9 at the Travelers Championship, at 21 at the Genesis Scottish Open in his last three starts.
He’ll be playing in his ninth Open Championship this week. Harman struggled in this event in his first few editions missing the cut in four of his first five Open Championships. However, he turned things around in 2021 finishing T19 at Royal Portrush. Harman was able to build on that finishing T6 in 2022 at St. Andrews and winning the Open Championship last year at Royal Liverpool.
In the last 24 rounds, Harman ranks 7th in SG: Approach, 42nd in SG: Around the Green, and 58th in SG: Off the Tee. In terms of scoring, he ranks 70th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 68th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 64th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. Harman’s short game has also been great lately ranking 7th in Scrambling Gained.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
Top 30:
Alex Noren (+175) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Alex Noren had a slow start to the season but was able to put things together starting at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches where he had eight consecutive top-25 finishes. Heading into the Genesis Scottish Open, Noren had missed two consecutive cuts at the U.S. Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic. However, he was able to figure things out at The Renaissance Club where he placed T10 last week.
He’ll be playing in his twelfth Open Championship with his best performance coming in 2017 when he finished T6 at Royal Birkdale. Noren finished T46 at Royal Troon in 2016 the last time the Open Championship was held at this venue.
In the last 24 rounds, Noren ranks 41st in SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Around the Green. In terms of scoring, he ranks 66th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 60th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 43rd in Bogey Avoidance. Noren’s short game has also been great lately ranking 14th in Scrambling Gained and 21st in Sand Saves Gained.
Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Unit
Top 40:
Si Woo Kim (+145) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Si Woo Kim is coming into the Open Championship in good form finishing T26 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T31 at the Travelers Championship, T32 at the U.S. Open, and T15 at the Memorial Tournament in his last four starts.
He’ll be playing in his sixth Open Championship with his best performance coming in 2022 when he finished T15 at St Andrews.
In the last 24 rounds, Si Woo ranks 27th in SG: Approach, 50th in SG: Around the Green, and 56th in SG: Off the Tee. In terms of scoring, he ranks 46th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 47th in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards, and 20th in Bogey Avoidance. Kim’s short game has also been great lately ranking 16th in Scrambling Gained and 9th in Sand Saves Gained.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Unit
Additional Bets/ Angles:
Top Left Hander – Open Championship
– [0.5u] B. Harman (+260) – DK – [0.4u] A. Bhatia (+350) – DK
Only six players are in this market including one amateur w/ MacIntyre being the current favorite (+125). However, I think either Bhatia & Harman have a great chance to beat him. pic.twitter.com/VyByRhyfFS
— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) July 17, 2024
Here are two props that I like for the 1st Rd:
Hole 1 – Par 4 – 366 Yards
L. Åberg v B.DeChambeau v T. Kim – R1 Group Combined Hole Score – Hole 1 – R1 – 1 or Better (+115)
S. Lowry v C. Smith v M. Fitzpatrick – R1 Group Combined Hole Score – Hole 1 – R1 – 1 or Better (+120) pic.twitter.com/Idsf1PzQss
— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2024
If players decide the be a agressive on No. 3, and it plays downwind, there are several golfers with great odds to make birdie or better on that hole.
Birdie or Better – Hole 3 (Rd. 1) Clark (+245) McIlroy (+210) Dechambeau (+225) https://t.co/XYr6IDIaRj
— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2024
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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Royals vs Red Sox -130 O/U 9
It’s a beautiful day in Boston with a nice 77 degree temperature and no rain. The Royals visit the Red Sox with both teams trying to stay relevant. Royals Ace Seth Lugo takes the mound with a huge 2.21 ERA and a 2.7 WAR. He faces Kutter Crawford with a pretty good 3.2 ERA and a 2.0 WAR. The wind is blowing out over the green monster. Crawford’s fly ball percentage is a high 47.8% while Lugo’s is a low 36.9%. Both teams rank pretty closely in hitting off righties. The Red sox certainly get the Bullpen nod as they rank in the top and the Royals are below average in that department, but why even get them involved? Right now you can get plus money on Lugo for the 1st 5 innings which I think is a steal in this situation. Let’s go with Lugo today.
We head to the first weekend at Saratoga with some money in our pockets as we hit Dornoch at 17-1 to win the Belmont Stakes!
The first weekend of Saratoga Race Course is upon us. This is truly one of my favorite weekends of the year and I can not wait to be there in August. The morning dew coming off the track as horses warm up, the run for picnic tables when the gates open, the coffee shops on Broadway packed with everyone studying the program, it’s truly a horse ball paradise. For everyone who’s been, I don’t need to get into the Carolina Street antics when the races are over but for anyone who hasn’t been and loves horse racing, Saratoga is the place to be.
Please keep in mind my handicapping style lines up with Saratoga (the Graveyard of favorites) where I usually try to beat the favorite in each race. I understand everyone has a different style of handicapping, which is the beauty of horse racing, so if that’s not normally your style please feel free to use my top picks underneath in your exotics. Also, if your units are different than mine please feel free to adjust accordingly. As always best of luck and let’s get into the three graded stakes races taking place on Saturday at the Spaaaaaaaaaa.
Weather:
Day: Mostly sunny and humid 88 F, 12% Chance of Rain
Barring any unforeseen showers, we anticipate a fast track at Saratoga Race Course this week.
Kelso Stakes (Grade 3)
Race History:
The Kelso Stakes, previously known as the Forbidden Apple Stakes, was named in honor of Forbidden Apple, who won the 2001 Grade I Manhattan Handicap and the Grade II Kelso Handicap twice. The event’s inaugural running took place on Independence Day in 2014 at Belmont Park. In 2019, the race was moved to Saratoga and was classified as a Grade III event by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. In 2023, NYRA announced that the event would be renamed the Kelso Stakes, in honor of Kelso, a horse who was a five-time American Horse of the Year from 1960 to 1964.
Race Information:
Date: July 13th, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Call Me Harry had several good performances heading into 2024 finishing inside the money in each of his last five starts. However, this year the 8-year-old gelding finished 8th in an $80k Optional Claiming race at Belmont at the Big A in May and more recently 4th in an $62k Optional Claiming race at the same track. He’ll make his graded stakes debut in the Kelso Stakes so we’ll see if he can improve on his two previous performances this year. Call Me Harry has raced well at Saratoga in the past but will have to run better than he’s shown if he wants to contend here. Luis Saez has ridden this horse in the past and has had success finishing inside the money in each of his five previous mounts.
Name: Mysterious Night (IRE)
ML Odds: 8-5
Owner(s): Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Mistrusting
Sire: Dark Angel
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
14
5
2
2
2024
4
2
1
0
2023
4
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
0
1
0
Mysterious Night is coming off one of the best performances of his career running 2nd in the Grade III Poker Stakes. In that race, he beat fellow entrants Talk of the Nation who ran third, and Carl Spackler who finished fifth. That race also took place at Saratoga last month so he’s well accustomed to the surface and track. One change for this race is that Flavien Prat will take over the mount from William Buck who has ridden this horse in every start prior.
Name: Northern Invader
ML Odds: 5-1
Owner(s): West Point Thoroughbreds and David Ingordo
Trainer: Cherie Devaux
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Dam: Androeah (Arch)
Sire: Collected (City Zip)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
3
4
0
2024
3
1
0
0
2023
7
2
4
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Northern Invader is coming off a 4th place finish in the Grade III Arlington Stakes where he was outmatched down the stretch. In his only other Graded Stakes race, he ran 5th in the Grade II Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Downs. This colt has certainly shown potential flashes of greatness on a few occasions but has struggled to put it all together when he takes a step up in class. He’ll certainly try to get out to an early speed which has proven as a successful strategy for him in the past but may not be able to given the speed some of these other front runners possess. If he can put everything together he’s certainly a contender, but that’s a big if. Jose L. Ortiz will retain the mount.
Name: Talk of the Nation
ML Odds: 2-1
Owner(s): Allen Stable, Inc. and CHC INC.
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: She’s Not Here (Street Cry)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
4
4
1
2024
2
0
1
1
2023
7
3
3
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
1
Talk of the Nation is coming off a 3rd in the Grade III Poker Stakes where he was bested by fellow entrant Mysterious Night who ran second finishing a head in front of him. In his only other race this year, he finished 2nd in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs losing to fellow entrant Carl Spackler by a head. He’s seemed to enjoy the switch to turf and has posted some impressive speed figures in his last two races despite not winning so he’s certainly a contender. Talk of the Nation has run his best races from the front so I’m sure Irad Ortiz, Jr. will try to adopt a more aggressive strategy in this race.
Name: Carl Spackler (IRE)
ML Odds: 2-1
Owner(s): e Five Racing Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Zindaya (More Than Ready)
Sire: Lope de Vega (Shamardal)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
4
1
0
2024
2
1
0
0
2023
5
3
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
3
2
0
0
Carl Spackler won his first race of the year beating fellow entrant Talk of the Nation in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs. In that race, he posted a 98 Beyer Speed Figure which tied his career best. In his last race, he ran 5th in the Grade III Poker Stakes behind fellow entrants Mysterious Night (2nd) and Talk of the Nation (3rd). He didn’t get a great trip in that race and faltered down the stretch. However, this colt has done well at Saratoga winning two of his three previous races at this venue. He draws the outside in a field of early speed so I would expect him to hang back at the start and take more of a closing approach to this race hoping the front runners tire themselves out. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount.
MAIN TRACK ONLY
Based on the project forecast, I don’t see this race being moved off the turf so I’m going to exclude him from my handicapping process. If this race gets moved off the turf, I will update my article so be sure to stay tuned.
Name: Repo Rocks (MTO)
ML Odds: 7-5
Owner(s): Double B Racing Stables
Trainer: Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
Jockey: Rider TBA
Dam: Hawaiian Love (Not For Love)
Sire: Tapiture (Tapit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
38
9
7
7
2024
2
0
0
1
2023
6
4
1
0
Saratoga Race Course6
6
0
2
2
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
#4 Talk of the Nation
Off the Pace
#1 Call Me Harry
#3 Northern Invader
Middle of the Pact
#2 Mysterious Night (Ire)
Back of the Pact
#5 Carl Spackler (Ire)
Picks:
I don’t love these races with small fields so my approach to this race is going to be fairly straightforward. I have one horse to win and that’s about it. Given the odds, the payouts won’t be great so I don’t like to go overboard with my bankroll. If you’d like to take a different approach and maybe single one/two horses in a Pick 3-5 that’s also not a bad call.
$5 WIN – #5 Carl Spacker
TICKET COST $5.00
He’s coming off a bad performance in the Grade III Poker Stakes but has proven he can rebound from a bad performance. He’s now well rested coming off just over a month’s layoff so he should be ready to go. There’s a lot of early speed in this race which could set up nicely for him down the stretch if Gaffalione can put him just off the pace. He has the speed to compete in this race and has proven that he can beat the other horses in this race. At 2-1, it’s certainly not a great price if I’m being honest, but that’s why I’m singling him here in the Kelso Stakes. If you’re looking for another horse to bet in this race I would look at the #4 Talk of the Nation.
Diana Stakes (Grade 1)
Race History:
The Diana Stakes was inaugurated in 1939 and is named in honor of the Roman goddess Diana, who is associated with hunting, forests, and wild animals. The Diana Stakes is typically run in mid-July and is open to fillies and mares four years old and up. The race is contested over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the turf. The Diana Stakes has held various grading statuses over the years but since 2003 is classified as a Grade I event.
Race Information:
Date: July 13th, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Owner(s): Lanni Bloodstock LLC, Madaket Stables LLC and SF Racing LLC
Trainer: Kevin Attard
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Devine Aida (Unbridled’s Song)
Sire: Ghostzapper (Awesome Again)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
13
5
4
2
2024
6
1
3
2
2023
5
3
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Moira will run for the first time this year. In her last race, she finished 3rd in the Grade I Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf despite having a rough start. Despite finishing 3rd, she posted her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. Her last win came back in September of last year at Woodbine, where she’s made most of her starts, in the Grade II Canadian Stakes. This filly has hit the board in 11 of her 13 career starts and is a contender in this race. She’s also coming off a significant layoff but has had a layoff of a similar time in the past (2022 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf -> 2023 Belle Mahone Stakes) that has proved to be advantageous. Tyler Gaffalione will take over the mount.
Name: Coppice (GB)
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori
Dam: Helleborine (Observatory)
Sire: Kingman (Invincible Spirit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
4
1
0
2024
2
0
1
0
2023
7
3
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
0
Coppice shipped over to the United States in May of this year to run in the Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes where she ran 2nd losing by a nose to fellow entrant Chili Flag. Despite having an awkward start, she posted an impressive Beyer Speed Figure of 97. In her most recent race, she finished 6th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes where he had a poor start again. Lanfranco Dettori will retain the mount.
Name: Mission of Joy
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): RyZan Sun Racing, LLC and Madaket Stables LLC
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Dam: Smart Mission (Smart Strike)
Sire: Kitten’s Joy (El Prado)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
12
4
0
3
2024
3
0
0
1
2023
7
3
0
2
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
1
Mission of Joy has races three times this season only hitting the board once which game in her most recent race the Grade I Just a Game Stakes at Saratoga. In that race, she was beaten by fellow entrants Chili Flag who won, and Whitebeam, who ran 2nd. Despite not having won in her last two starts, she hasn’t been that far off, and with a better trip, this mare is certainly a contender and one to keep an eye on especially at this price. John R. Velazquez will retain the mount.
Name: Didia (Arg)
ML Odds: 7-2
Owner(s): Merriebelle Stables and Resolute Racing
Trainer: Ignacio Correas, IV
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Dam: Delambre (Rainbow Corner)
Sire: Orpen (Lure)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
17
11
2
1
2024
3
2
0
1
2023
5
3
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
1
0
0
Didia has had an impressive 2024 campaign winning the Grade II TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes and more recently the Grade I New York Stakes where she posted the best speed figure of her career. In the Grade I New York Stakes, she beat fellow entrant Neecie Marie, who ran 2nd by a length and a half. Jose L. Ortiz will retain the mount.
Name: Gina Romantica
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Peter M. Brant
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Dam: Special Me (Unbridled’s Song)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
13
5
2
0
2024
2
0
0
0
2023
4
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
1
0
0
Gina Romantica has raced twice this year finishing 7th in the Grade I Jenny Wiley Stakes and 5th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. She’s had a disappointing start to the year after a strong finish to the 2023 season where she won the Grade I First Lady Stakes. Manuel Franco will take over the mount.
Name: Whitebeam (GB)
ML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Sleep Walk (Oasis Dream)
Sire: Caravaggio (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
13
5
4
1
2024
2
0
2
0
2023
5
2
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
1
1
0
Whitebeam has raced twice this year finishing runner-up in both the Grade III Beaugay Stakes and the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Her last win was at last year’s Grade I Diana Stakes. Flavien Prat will retain the mount.
Name: Fluffy Socks
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Head of Plains Partners LLC
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Dam: Breakfast Time (Kitten’s Joy)
Sire: Slumber (Cacique)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
26
6
9
4
2024
4
1
0
1
2023
5
1
2
1
Saratoga Race Course
5
0
3
0
Fluffy Socks has raced four times this year winning her most recent race the Grade III Gallorette Stakes by over seven lengths. She was the heavy favorite in that race and posted her bestBeyer Speed Figure of the year. In last year’s Diana Stakes, she ran 5th failing to kick down the stretch. Joel Rosario will take over the mount.
Name: Neecie Marie
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Michael Milam
Trainer: Robert E. Reid, Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Lode Lady (Posse)
Sire: Cross Traffic (Unbridled’s Song)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
11
5
3
0
2024
2
1
1
0
2023
9
4
2
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
1
0
Neecie Marie started off her 2024 campaign by winning the Grade III Beaugay Stakes and finishing runner-up in the Grade I New York Stakes behind fellow entrant Didia. Her pace is certainly a concern in this race but has shown she shouldn’t be underestimated. Luis Saez will take over the mount.
Name: Evvie Jets
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): The Estate of Robert J. Amendola
Trainer: Mertkan Kantarmaci
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Dam: Natchez Trace (Consolidator)
Sire: Twirling Candy (Candy Ride)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
25
7
6
3
2024
2
0
0
0
2023
6
3
0
1
Saratoga Race Course
5
2
1
0
Evvie Jets has raced twice this year finishing 8th in the Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes and 4th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Her last win was in the Grade II Ballston Spa Stakes which took place at Saratoga. Dylan Davis will retain the mount.
Name: Chili Flag (Fr)
ML Odds: 9-2
Owner(s): Madaket Stables LLC, Michael Dubb, Michael E. Kisber, and Michael J. Caruso
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Flag Day (Pivotal)
Sire: Cityscape (Selkirk)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
19
7
6
1
2024
4
3
0
0
2023
6
2
3
1
Saratoga Race Course
2
1
1
0
Chili Flag has won her last three starts including the Grade III Honey Fox Stakes, Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes, and most recently, the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Since Chad Brown took over training this horse, she’s turned into an absolute monster on the turf. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will retain the mount.
MAIN TRACK ONLY
Based on the project forecast, I don’t see this race being moved off the turf so I’m going to exclude him from my handicapping process. If this race gets moved off the turf, I will update my article so be sure to stay tuned.
Name: Venti Valentine
ML Odds:
Owner(s): NY Final Furlong Racing Stable and Parkland Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Jorge R. Abreu
Jockey: Rider TBA
Dam: Glory Gold (Medaglia d’Oro)
Sire: Firing Line (Line of David)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
21
7
5
5
2024
4
1
2
1
2023
7
2
1
3
Saratoga Race Course
3
2
0
1
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
#6 Whitebeam (GB)
Off the Pace
#9 Evvie Jets
Middle of the Pact
#2 Coppice (GB)
#3 Mission of Joy
#4 Didia (Arg)
#5 Gina Romantica
Back of the Pact
#10 Chili Flag (Fr)
Closers
#1 Moira
#7 Fluffy Socks
#8 Neecie Marie
Picks:
$5 WIN – #1 Moira, #4 Didia
TICKET COST $10.00
$2 EXACTA – 1, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
TICKET COST $16.00
Sanford Stakes (Grade 3)
Race History:
The first Sanford Memorial Stakes was run in 1913. The race was named in honor of the Sanford family, prominent horse owners and breeders from Amsterdam, New York, who had a significant impact on horse racing in the region. Typically run in mid-July, the Sanford Stakes is open to two-year-old horses and is contested over a distance of 6 furlongs (three-quarters of a mile) on a dirt track. The distance and conditions of the Sanford Stakes have evolved over the years, but it has remained a key event for assessing the potential of two-year-old horses. It is seen as an early indicator of talent and often features horses that go on to compete in other major races, including the Triple Crown series. The Sanford Stakes has held different grading statuses over the years and is currently classified as a Grade III race. One of the most famous editions of the Sanford Stakes was in 1919 when the legendary Man o’ War suffered the only defeat of his career, losing to a horse named Upset.
Race Information:
Date: July 13th, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Mentee is a full brother to last year’s juvenile champion Fierceness. This colt won his first race, a $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A by a nose after having a five-length lead entering the stretch. His first race was at 5 furlongs so we’ll see if he can handle the increase in distance after barely winning back in June. In that race, he posted an impressive 88 Beyer Speed Figure, the top speed figure from any horse in the field. John Velazquez will retain the mount.
Name: Mr. Squeaky Wheels
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Bella Mia Stables
Trainer: Kevin Rice
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Dam: Follow the Lite (Lite the Fuse)
Sire: Gormley (Malibu Moon)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
1
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Mr. Squeaky Wheels won a 4 1/2 furlong $30k Maiden Special Weight at Presque Isle Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by 3 1/4 lengths. That race was on a synthetic surface so he’ll make his first start on dirt this weekend. He won that race with a 55 Beyer Speed Figure against a much weaker field than he’ll face in the Sanford Stakes. Jose Ortiz will pick up the mount.
Name: Baby Dukes
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Cash is King LLC and LC Racing LLC
Trainer: Robert E. Reid, Jr.
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Dam: Flatter’s Secret (Flatter)
Sire: Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
1
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Baby Dukes won a 4 1/2 furlong $52k Maiden Special Weight at Presque Isle Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by 4 lengths. That race was on the main track so he’ll be accustomed to the surface. He won that race with a 61 Beyer Speed Figure. While this will certainly be a step up in class, he did have an impressive debut and showed he can certainly build on that. He’s a long shot to watch out for in this race. Jose Lezcano will pick up the mount.
Name: Soontobeking
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Our Blue Streaks Stable, SGV Thoroughbreds and George Weaver
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Eric Cancel
Dam: Swayed (Freud)
Sire: King for a Day (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
1
2024
2
1
0
1
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Soontobeking made his debut in a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight over a muddy Aqueduct track where he ran third. He didn’t have a great trip in that race as he was bumped off the start. In his next start, he won a 5 1/2 furlong $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A. He also didn’t have a great trip in that race either but managed to close down the stretch winning by a head posting a 60 Beyer Speed Figure. The Sanford will certainly be a step up in class and he’ll need to improve on his past two starts if he wants to be a contender. However, if he gets a clean trip and the pace is slow, he may be able to close on the leader. Soontobeking is also coming off a long layoff so he should be well rested. I would consider using this horse to use underneath. Eric Cancel will retain the mount.
Name: Three Echoes
ML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): L and N Racing LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Bayou Miss (Dixie Union)
Sire: Echo Town (Speightstown)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
1
2024
2
1
0
1
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
1
Three Echoes won a 5 furlong $117k Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by three-quarter-lengths. He won that race despite being bumped at the start posting a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. He took a step up in class his next race in the Tremont and finished third behind fellow entrant Studlydoright, who won. However, he did improve in that race posting a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s run well in both of his first two career starts and if he can get a better trip, he’s a contender. Flavien Prat will retain the mount.
Name: Studlydoright
ML Odds: 7-2
Owner(s): David R. Hughes
Trainer: John J. Robb
Jockey: Xavier Perez
Dam: Peach of a Gal (Curlin)
Sire: Nyquist (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
1
0
0
Studlydoright won a 4 1/2 furlong $52k Maiden Special Weight at Laurel Park over a sloppy surface in his debut beating the rest of the field by one and a half lengths. He posted a 61 Beyer Speed Figure in that race which isn’t overly impressive but was able to close well despite the poor track conditions. He took a step up in class his next race in the Tremont and won beating fellow entrant Three Echoes, who ran third. He didn’t have a great start in that race but was able to close well even with the increase in distance to 5 1/2 furlongs. Studlydoright improved in his second race posting an 82 Beyer Speed Figure. He has the pace to compete in this race and is a contender. Xavier Perez will retain the mount.
Name: War Tax
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Peter Tournas
Trainer: Carlos F. Martin
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Dam: Transaction Tax (Gemologist)
Sire: Outwork (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
0
2024
2
1
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
War Tax won a 5 furlong $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A in his debut beating the rest of the field by two lengths. It was a fairly weak field where he posted a 66 Beyer Speed Figure in that race which isn’t overly impressive. He took a step up in class his next race in the Bashform Manor at Churchill Downs and finished 8th after a poor start. He wasn’t great in that race and looked tired so it’ll be interesting to see how this horse performs coming off an extremely short layoff (13 days). Javier Castellano will pick up the mount.
Name: Mo Plex
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): R and H Stable
Trainer: Jeremiah C. Englehart
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Mo Joy (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Complexity (Maclean’s Music)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
1
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Baby Dukes won a 5 1/2 furlong $75k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A in his debut beating the rest of the field by an outstanding 10 lengths. That race was on the main track so he’ll be accustomed to the surface. He won that race with a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. While this will certainly be a step up in class, he did have an impressive debut and showed he can certainly build on that. Mo Plex is a contender in this race and should be considered, especially with the current odds. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will pick up the mount.
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
#1 Mentee
Off the Pace
#3 Baby Dukes
#8 Mo Plex
Middle of the Pact
#5 Three Echoes
#7 War Tax
Back of the Pact
#2 Mr. Squeaky Wheels
Closers
#4 Soontobeking
#6 Studlydoright
Picks:
We have some pretty decent odds in this field so I don’t mind spending a little more money than I usually do on a race. Mentee is the morning line favorite currently listed a 6-5 after an impressive debut. While he is the deserving favorite in this race, you know my strategy by now which is to look at other horses to beat him.
$5 WIN – #6 Studlydoright, #8 Mo Plex
TICKET COST $10.00
Studlydorigh is the only two-time winner in the field and has shown his ability to improve in each race. He has the closing ability to do well in this race and with Xavier Perez retaining the mount he knows how to set this colt up for success heading down the stretch. Mo Plex put together an impressive debut winning by ten lengths. He was on the outside post in that race and with Irad Ortix Jr. retaining the mount I’m sure he’ll follow a similar strategy in the Sanford.
$2 EXACTA – 6, 8 / 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
TICKET COST $16.00
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports from @DocSports and @MyBookie is back to break down some football! First, the guys get into some props and prop ideas for the 2024 season. Next, the guys talk about the landscape of the future in college football. Then, Raphael and Kiev give out a few FREE PLAYS for the 2024 NCAAF season. After that, the guys get into the NFL with some more plays in each division. Finally, the guys talk about some more of the exotic prop bets for the NFL 2024 season! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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This should be a fun day in Philly. The weather calls for high winds out to left center at 15.5 MPH. The weather will be sunny and hot with no rain. Pitching today for the Dodgers is Gavin Stone. This guy has improved from last year to a nice 3.05 ERA from his rough season out last year. The issue is that this guy has faced some very easy teams, and when he goes against real hitting teams, he has given up some serious runs. Christopher Sanchez takes the helm for the Phillies. He is also having a solid seAson at 2.96 ERA, but nothing much else to wright home about. Neither of these pitchers are considered aces and they are facing the top two batting teams in the league with the wind blowing out. To add to this, both teams have burned through a few key guys in the bullpen the last few days in guys like Michael Mercado, Jose Ruiz, Greg Soto for the Phillies and Ryan Yarbrough, Yohan Ramirez and Michael Peterson for the Dodgers. I think with the wind blowing out, this is a high score game. Take the over.
Davis Thompson secured his first PGA TOUR title by winning the John Deere Classic. Although we didn’t back him for the second consecutive week, we still turned a profit with Luke Clanton finishing in the Top 20 (+175), Ben Griffin in the Top 20 (+188), and Andrew Novak in the Top 40 (+120).
Now, the PGA TOUR heads to The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open.
The Genesis Scottish Open marks the 31st event of the FedExCup Regular Season, with only four weeks remaining until the start of the FedExCup Playoffs. This is the third consecutive year that the Genesis Scottish Open is co-sanctioned by the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour as part of the Strategic Alliance between both tours.
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy will return to defend his title at the Genesis Scottish Open, marking his first PGA TOUR appearance since narrowly missing out at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. McIlroy claimed victory at last year’s Genesis Scottish Open in his debut at The Renaissance Club.
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele aims to continue his impressive 2024 season as he heads across the pond. Schauffele has achieved 11 top-10 finishes in 16 events this year, including a win at the PGA Championship. He has also secured five consecutive top-15 finishes on the PGA TOUR and won the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open.
Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris is set to compete after withdrawing from the Rocket Mortgage Classic due to a hip injury.
DPWT
With the Genesis Scottish Open co-sanctioned by the DP World Tour, approximately 75 DP World Tour pros will be participating this week, including Rasmus Højgaard (along with his brother Nicolai) and Alex Fitzpatrick (along with his brother Matt).
This European Tour event debuted in 1972 as the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open held at Downfield Golf Club. One year later in 1973, the event was moved to the Old Course at St Andrews. Following that edition of the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open, TV rights could not be arranged so from 1974-1985 no tournament was not played.
In 1986, the event was brought back as the Bell’s Scottish Open and took place at Haggs Castle Golf Club. Just a year later, the event was moved to Gleneagles where it was held until 1994. From 1995 -1996 the event was held at Carnoustie and was renamed the Scottish Open.
In 1996 the event moved once more to Loch Lomond where it was played until 2010 under a variety of different names. The 2011 event was held at Castle Stuart Golf Links due to the financial difficulties being suffered by Loch Lomond. Castle Stuart Golf Links would also host the event for another two years.
From 2014-2018, the event bounced around to several different courses before finding its current home in 2019, the Renaissance Club. In 2022, this event became co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and the title sponsor became Genesis.
The Renaissance Club, located in East Lothian, Scotland, is a relatively new but highly esteemed addition to the world of golf. Founded in 2008, the club quickly garnered attention for its stunning coastal setting and meticulously designed course, created by the renowned architect Tom Doak. Nestled between the historic Muirfield and North Berwick courses, The Renaissance Club blends traditional Scottish links characteristics with modern golf course design. It has rapidly risen in prominence, hosting the Scottish Senior Open and, more notably, the Genesis Scottish Open since 2019. The course is celebrated for its challenging layout, pristine conditions, and breathtaking views of the Firth of Forth.
72-Hole Record (Event):
262, Bernd Wiesberger (2019)
18-Hole Record (Event):
61, Bernd Wiesberger (Round 2, 2019), Byeong Hun An (Round 1, 2023)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Tom Doak in 2008, The Renaissance Club features a Par 70 layout, comprising five Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and three Par 5s.
In terms of length, The Renaissance Club is one of the more average courses on the Tour measuring 7,237 yards. It ranks 18th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 16th of 44, with the average fairway width being 32.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 83 bunkers which ranks as the 12th most of 44 courses.
At the 2022 edition of the Genesis Scottish Open, the Par was 71 and the yardage was listed at 7,293. However last year, the Par has been changed to 70 and the yardage has dropped to 7,237. The 7th hole has been converted to a long Par 4 instead of a short Par 5.
The five Par 3’s range between 147 yards and 218 yards.Last year, only two of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par, No. 12 (-0.047) and No. 14 (-0.084).
There are ten Par 4’s at The Renaissance Club with the majority (six) ranging between 450 – 500 yards. No. 5 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 338 yards with the longest being No. 7, playing 505 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 18 (+0.293).
There are three Par 5’s at The Renaissance Club, No. 3, No. 10, & No. 16. They all played under par in 2023, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 2 with a scoring average of 4.601.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
The Renaissance Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.58
294.90
Driving Accuracy
62%
49%
GIR Percentage
66%
61%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
27.25
Scrambling Percentage
58%
54%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.44
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at The Renaissance Club.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Keith Mitchell
Min Woo Lee
Collin Morikawa
Ludvig Aberg
Viktor Hovland
Davis Thompson
Jordan Smith
Tom Kim
Jordan Spieth
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at The Renaissance Club. Three of the past five winners ranked 7th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Yu
Corey Conners
Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Aberg
Aaron Rai
Antoine Rozner
Keith Mitchell
Tom Hoge
Sepp Straka
Viktor Hovland
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.Three of the past four winners ranked 15th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Davis Thompson
Justin Thomas
Alex Noren
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Denny McCarthy
Eric Cole
Sungjae Im
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x3)
Three of the five Par 3’s at The Renaissance Club range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Yu
Sami Valimaki
Brice Garnett
Guido Migliozzi
Gary Woodland
Matthew Southgate
Keith Mitchell
Luke Donald
Matt Wallace
Max Greyserman
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the ten Par 4’s at The Renaissance Club range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Ludvig Aberg
Aaron Rai
Collin Morikawa
Marcel Siem
Hideki Matsuyama
Mark Hubbard
Max Greyserman
Xander Schauffele
Lucas Glover
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
All three Par 5’s at The Renaissance Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Thompson
Billy Horschel
Eric Cole
Min Woo Lee
Rory McIlroy
Keith Mitchell
Masahiro Kawamura
Davis Riley
Austin Eckroat
Tom Hoge
Birdies or Better Gained
Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Thompson
Collin Morikawa
Sungjae Im
Rory McIlroy
Corey Conners
Xander Schauffele
Tom Kim
Andrew Novak
Justin Lower
Keith Mitchell
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 175-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Yu
Nicolai Hojgaard
Ludvig Aberg
Adri Arnaus
Cam Davis
Antoine Rozner
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Marcel Siem
Justin Rose
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the The Renaissance Club has proven to be slightly advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Andrew Putnam
Tom Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Max Homa
Matt Fitzpatrick
Robert MacIntyre
Bernd Wiesberger
Thomas Detry
Wyndham Clark
The Field:
This year’s Genesis Scottish Open will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 30 on prior season’s FedExCup
Current FedExCup season leaders
Sponsor exemption (members not otherwise exempt)
DP World Tour eligibility (75 players)
Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
KPGA (three spots)
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Rory McIlroy (’23), Xander Schauffele (’22), Min Woo Lee (’21), Aaron Rai (’20), Bernd Wiesberger (’19), Alex Noren (’16), Rickie Fowler (’15), Justin Rose (’14), Luke Donald (’11)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Aaron Cockerill, Adam Hadwin, Alejandro Del Rey, Alex Fitzpatrick, Ben Kohles, Brendon Todd, Brice Garnett, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, Cole Rueck, Daniel Brown, David Skinns, Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy, JeongWoo Ham, Jesper Svensson, Jordan Gumberg, Jung-hwan Lee, Justin Lower, Keita Nakajima, Mark Hubbard, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Rikuya Hoshino, Ryo Hisatsune, Samuel Stevens, Santiago Tarrio Ben, Seamus Power, Taylor Moore, Todd Clements, Ugo Coussaud, Vincent Norrman, Yuto Katsuragawa
Sponsor Exemptions:
Tom Kim, David Law, Cole Rueck, Sanghyun Park, Jeong Woo Ham, Junghwan Lee, Stewart Cink, Gary Woodland
Players with ties to Scotland in the Field:
Birthplace:
Ewen Ferguson – Glasgow, United Kingdom
Grant Forrest – Livingston, United Kingdom
Calum Hill – Kirkcaldy, United Kingdom
Scott Jamieson – Glasgow, United Kingdom
David Law – Stevenage, United Kingdom
Robert MacIntyre – Oban, United Kingdom
Richie Ramsay – Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Connor Syme – Kirkcaldy, United Kingdom
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
OUT: Patrick Rodgers -> IN: Max Greyserman (Alternate)
IN: Santiago Tarrio (DPWT)
IN: Bernd Wiesberger (DPWT)
OUT: Beau Hossler -> IN: Taylor Montgomery (Alternate)
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Rory McIlroy (+800) is set to defend his title at the Genesis Scottish Open. He has won two of his last six events and has consistently placed within the top 15 in the other four. This will be his first start in just under a month, following his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open.
Xander Schauffele (+900) has had a stellar season, finishing outside the top 25 only once. He claimed victory at the PGA Championship in May and has placed no worse than T13 in his last three starts. Schauffele won this event in 2022 but finished T42 last year.
Collin Morikawa (+1600) has not secured a win this season but has demonstrated remarkable consistency with top 15 finishes in each of his last five starts. In this event, he finished T71 in 2021 and missed the cut in 2022.
Ludvig Aberg (+1600), who made his tournament debut last year but missed the cut, has shown strong recent form. He finished T5 at the Memorial Tournament, T12 at the U.S. Open, and T27 at the Travelers Championship in his last three events.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score at the Genesis Scottish Open has been above 263.5 in each of the last two editions.
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be a Playoff? (Yes +350 / No -500)
The Genesis Scottish Open has ended in a playoff in three of the last five editions.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes -215 / No +150)
In 2023, there was one hole-in-one made on No. 14 by Nicolas Colsaerts.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses (Event):
Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
Abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Tom Kim
2
68.25
T6
3
–
–
–
Xander Schauffele
3
68.33
T42
1
T10
–
–
Max Homa
2
69.00
T12
T16
–
–
–
Andrew Putnam
2
67.75
T42
–
–
–
T4
Thomas Detry
7
69.12
T42
T10
T2
T30
T43
Tommy Fleetwood
9
69.62
T6
T4
T26
2
–
Wyndham Clark
2
69.25
T25
T16
–
–
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
Abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Daniel Gavins
2
72.50
MC
MC
–
–
–
Mackenzie Hughes
2
72.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Sungjae Im
2
71.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Si Woo Kim
2
71.75
–
MC
–
–
MC
Francesco Molinari
12
70.41
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Julien Guerrier
5
70.92
–
MC
MC
MC
–
Oliver Wilson
13
70.58
MC
–
MC
MC
T69
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
9
71.21
–
MC
MC
–
T80
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Rory McIlroy (-15)
Price: 8-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
3rd
1st
4th
38th
29th
2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
Price: 20-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Xander Schauffele
16th
1st
7th
15th
27th
2021: Min Woo Lee (-18)
Price: 200-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Min Woo Lee
41st
4th
21st
2nd
17th
2020: Aaron Rai (-11)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Aaron Rai
14th
2nd
23rd
8th
23rd
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22)
Price: 40-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Bernd Wiesberger
27th
3rd
3rd
44th
21st
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Rory McIlroy
T7 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T9 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T7 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T7 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2022: Xander Schauffele
WON – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T14 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2021: Min Woo Lee
T17 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Open (DPWT)
T42 – BMW International Open (DPWT)
MC – Porsche European Open (DPWT)
T52 – Made in HimmerLand (DPWT)
T21 – Betfred British Masters (DPWT)
2020: Aaron Rai
2 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Open (DPWT)
T15 – ISPS HANDA UK Championship (DPWT)
T44 – ISPS HANDA Wales Open (DPWT)
T31 – Celtic Classic (DPWT)
T44 – English Championship (DPWT)
2019: Bernd Wiesberger
T2 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Open (DPWT)
T16 – BMW International Open (DPWT)
76 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
8 – Belgian Knockout (DPWT)
WON – Made in Denmark (DPWT)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Rory McIlroy
Genesis Scottish Open
abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
Dundonald Golf Links
Royal Aberdeen Golf Club
2023
2021
2019
2017
2014
Rory McIlroy
WON
MC
T34
MC
T14
2022: Xander Schauffele
Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
abrdn Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
2023
2022
2021
Xander Schauffele
T42
WON
T10
2021: Min Woo Lee
Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
2023
2022
2021
2020
Min Woo Lee
T35
MC
WON
T30
2020: Aaron Rai
Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
Gullane Golf Club
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Aaron Rai
MC
MC
T35
WON
MC
T9
2019: Bernd Wiesberger
abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Barclays Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club
Dundonald Golf Links
Royal Aberdeen Golf Club
Castle Stuart
Castle Stuart
Castle Stuart
2021
2020
2019
2017
2014
2013
2012
2011
Bernd Wiesberger
T26
T48
WON
T51
T41
T31
MC
MC
Picks (Outrights):
Tom Kim (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Min Woo Lee (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Aaron Rai (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Wyndham Clark (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Brian Harman (+6000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Thomas Detry (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Nicolai Hojgaard (+260) – DraftKings (Top 20 Finish Including Ties)
Risk 1.00 to win 2.60 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Ben Griffin (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Matt Wallace (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
The AFC East – Was supposed to be one of the strongest divisions in 2023, but what it turned out as was the most injured division in football. At least when it comes to key injuries. Only four plays into the season for the Jets, newly acquired quarterback Aaron Rogers tore his Achilles and was ruled out for the season. The Bills lost a bunch of defensive line and linebackers, while the Dolphins lost their best two defenders in edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradly Chubb. The Patriots lost their best defender in Matthew Judon, but let’s face it, they really didn’t have much going into the season anyways. The AFC East plays the AFC South and the NFC West this year. I would call that pretty medium as their are not many bad teams on the schedule. Let’s see if this division can live up to the hype from early 2023.
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ Baltimore, vs Kansas City, @ Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OC Ken Dorsey, WR Stephon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, OLB Leonard Floyd, C Mitch Morse, CB Dane Jackson, DT Tim Settle, LB Tyrei Dodson, CB Tre’Davious White, FS Jordan Poyer, DE Jordan Phillips, SS Micah Hyde, ILB Tyler Matakevich
Key additions: OC Joe Brady, WR Curtis Samuel, QB Mitch Trubisky, DT Austin Johnson, S Mike Edwards, DE Dawuane Smoot, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, RT La’El Collins
Key Draft Picks: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DL DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedrick Van Pran and a bunch of hope.
Summary: Remember when Damar Hamlin was the biggest story in the league last year? I am not sure how someone that comes back from death doesn’t get comeback player of the year, but hey, that’s the New York media for you. Anyways, the Bills went through some rough patches last year. If you remember me saying that they should have drafted a linebacker rather than a tight end, you may have said that I was lucky to get that right. Well, I like Dalton Kinkaid and all, but I still think that this team really hurt themselves ranking 24th in opponent rush EPA due to the injuries to Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard. I also thought Dawson Knox was fine at tight end and didn’t need another star at that ignored position. Head coach Sean McDermott took on defensive coordinator duties after Leslie Frazier’s departure, and that turned out to not be the greatest idea. For 2024 the Bills promote Bobby Babich as the new DC so let’s see if he can get this defense back to being a power-house. Let’s face it, this Bills team was basically run through Josh Allen’s amazing dual threat quarterback abilities. I attest the run to the playoffs due to his skills. Is this sustainable or even repeatable? I am not so sure. The Bills once again had to shed a ton of talent last year and were not able to spend a bunch of money to get some back. It is all up to how the draft turns out for this Bills team. The biggest loss in the offseason is probably Leonard Floyd, but everyone is talking about the Stephon Diggs trade. Diggs was a cancer in the locker room and no wide receiver is worth the headaches. So why then pick up Chase Claypool? He himself has proven to be a loud mouth without the numbers to back it up. The pass catching core needs to step it up for 2024. I think the Bills could miss the playoffs next year, and I am very worried that Josh Allen runs out of gas at some point. My power rating on the Bills will start at 4 points better than the average team which is a big downgrade from 6.5 to end the season last year.
My Number: 10.53
Action– No Play
Power Rating: 4
2. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:9.5 juiced to the over -150
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.15
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Denver, vs Minnesota (neutral game), @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Bryce Huff, S Jordan Whitehead, DT Quinton Jefferson, T Mekhi Becton, CB Justin Hardy, CB Bryce Hall, DE Carl Lawson, T Duane Brown
Key additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, G John Simpson, WR Mike Williams, DT Javon Kinlow, T Tyron Smith.
Whom they drafted: T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen, QB Jordan Travis.
Summary: The elephant in the room for this team is Aaron Rogers and all of the attention that he requires. Even when injured, he had to be in the spot light in 2023. The big question is, how much better would this Jets team had been if he played 15 games? I mean, it’s not like Rogers had a great last year with the Packers. Coach Robert Saleh has to manage his team this year and I do not think that he appreciates Rogers antics. In saying that, this team is fully loaded with talent and I do like their draft. The Jets lost a few big names on defense to free agency, but these guys were getting old and they also should be replaceable. The Jets ranked 3rd in defensive EPA and dead last on offense. This year, they have the schedule to compete, and if Rogers could just be average, this team should easily make the playoffs. I like the Jets this year to win the division, but I also could see this team still being defensive oriented. No play on the season win total. Take the division odds as I see Buffalo and Miami having it rough this year.
My Number: 9.58
Action –Jets to win division +240 – 1 star
New York Jets Power Rating: 2
3.Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total:9.5 juiced to the over -135
Pythagorean Wins: 10.93
2023 Wins: 11
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Las Vegas, @ Green Bay, @ Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Vic Fangio, DT Christian Wilkins, G Robert Hunt, OLB Andrew Van Ginkle, S Brandon Jones, DT Raekwon Davis, OLB Jerome Baker, S Deshon Elliot, WR Cedrick Wilson, CB Xavien Howard, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, C Conner Williams, CB Eli Apple
Key additions: DC Anthony Weaver, LB Jordyn Brooks, C Aaron Brewer, CB Kendall Fuller, TE Jonnu Smith, OLB Shaq Barrett, WR Odell Beckham
Whom they drafted: Edge Chop Robinson, T Patrick Paul and a bunch of hope.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins were looking great up to week 16 when they beat Dallas at home 22-20, just to completely fall apart shorty after. Injuries played somewhat of a roll while the offense had gotten away from what made them great. Run the football! Anyways, we all know that this team had to shed some guys and will have to pay Tua Tagovailoa some series cash. They missed the window and things are getting expensive. Let’s not forget that Tyreke Hill has over nine kids to feed along with some baby-mommas. The schedule looks easy on paper, yet going to Cleveland and Green Bay will be tricky. The Dolphins had a great offense ranking 3rd in drop back EPA and 5th in Rush EPA. The defense however took a step back ranking 15th in overall EPA, but we must not forget that they lost some of their best players to injury. Now the mammals of the sea get rid of their best defensive coach in Vic Fangio for another unproven Baltimore Raven in Anthony Weaver. I am quite concerned for the losses of some key guys like Christian Wilkins, Brandon Jones, and edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkle. The draft wasn’t plentiful as they didn’t have much for high draft picks. In saying all of that, this team won 11 games with their Pythagorean win total all the way up to 10.93. The schedule this year is very manageable without any world travel, but the Dolphins will have a -8 day net rest disadvantage over the season. I see a very strong offense but a below average defense for 2024. The Dolphins should cover as a good size favorite yet maybe falter as a dog.
My Number: 9.97
Action – None
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 2.25
4. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under -160
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.12
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Cincinnati, @ Chicago, vs LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Bill Belichick, LB Mack Wilson, RT Trenton Brown, TE Pharaoh Brown, TE Mike Gesicki, RB Ezekiel Elliot, CB Miles Bryant, CB Jalen Mills, CB JC Jackson, S Adrian Phillips, DT Lawrence Guy.
Key additions: Coach Jerad Mayo, OC Alex Van Pelt, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, LB Sione Takitaki, WR KJ Osborne, T Chukwuma Okafor, TE Austin Hooper, DT Armon Watts, G Nick Leverett
Key Draft Picks: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, T Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson
Summary: This Patriots team was once again quite pathetic in 2023. The long time marriage between Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick has finally divorced and it doesn’t look pretty. Jerod Mayo takes over as a defensive minded coach and former player. His OC will be Alex Van Pelt who served the same role on the Browns. Last year, the Pats went from dumb to stupid by going from Matt Patricia to bringing in Bill O’Brien as their offensive coordinator which helped them rank 31st in offensive EPA. The strength was the defense ranking 8th in EPA, but I am not even sure that is the real number. Last year, Pats opponents were running clock to win the game making the Patriots defense look better than they actually were. Injuries to Matthew Judon of course didn’t help, but if this team can’t move the ball for 2024, it isn’t going to matter. The Patriots draft looked more like a poor man’s Chicago Bears draft as they got the 3rd best quarterback and the 2nd best wide receiver from the Huskies. Picking up Jacoby Brissett is a good fit with a new coach, but he may be asked to win games with second rate skill position guys. This is asking too much for this team on a rebuild. I think Drake Maye comes in after six or seven games to try and be the player they felt he was in the draft. The 2024 schedule is flat out brutal with some rough at large games. The only good thing I see is that the Patriots rank second highest in net rest at +12. Otherwise, expect a rough season.
My Number: 3.56 wins
Summary: Lean under
New England Patriots Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
