AFC West – The AFC West last year was an AFC mess. Did the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? Yes, but they definitely did not look like a super bowl team during the regular season and they certainly had a lot of situational help along the way. The Denver Broncos were toast as soon as Russell Wilson said the words, “giddy up”. The Raiders were an utter embarrassment as they let their coach go during the regular season. The Chargers had about as much electricity as rubbing a balloon on your head and sticking it to your shirt. For 2024, there are a lot of big changes including two new coaches, two new starting quarterbacks (most likely), and a bunch of hope. This division plays the AFC North and the NFC South for their at large which I would call pretty medium. Basically the hardest and the easiest divisions. The Chiefs will certainly be the focal point looking for the three-peat. Let’s see how all of this pans out.
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large @ San Francisco, @ Buffalo, vs Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: CB L’Jarious Sneed, G Nick Allegretti, ILB Willy Gay, S Mike Edwards, WR Marqez Valdez-Scantling, T Donavan Smith
Key additions: WR Marquise Brown, QB Carson Wentz
Key draft picks: WR Xavier Worthy, T Kingsley Suamataia, C Hunter Nourzad, S Jaden Hicks
Summary: The Chiefs have proven to be the most dangerous team in football. I am not talking about the regular season. I am talking about the playoffs to the Super Bowl. Even if this team just limps in to the playoffs with a wildcard, they should be the ones favored to win it all. Patrick Mahomes is maybe the only quarterback worth paying a boat load of money, and he has proven that when they got rid of key guys in every offseason. Now the Chiefs had to get rid of their second best defender in cornerback L’Jarious Sneed. They let wide receiver MVS walk after making a key clutch catch against the Ravens to advance to the Super Bowl. Will it work out again this year? Well, maybe not so much in the regular season. Last year, the Chiefs only finished 11th in offensive EPA and 5th on defense. They were that care-free super bowl champion that showed up only when it counted. May they do that again this year? I am going to say probably, but the fact that they were allowed to pick the fastest man in the draft at wide receiver really really scares me for the other teams that they may be facing. In saying that, I still think that the Chiefs lost a lot in the offseason with defensive guys like Snead, Gay and Edwards taking the walk. They still should be very solid on defense, but the Chiefs may take a minute to get back into the swing of things. I also must say that the division has gotten harder with Jim Harbaugh lurking out west. On a positive note, Kansas City has a nice easy schedule for 2024 with a +5 net rest advantage against opponents. I think the Chiefs will be that team that wins hard fought games that they should be blowing opponents away a little too close for comfort. They will have a few stinkers and some massive comebacks in Mahomes type fashion.
My Number: 10.46
Action Under 11.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 6
Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -155
2023 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 7.05
Schedule: Easy – at large @ Arizona, vs Tennessee, @ New England
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses – Coach Brandon Staley, OC Kellen Moore, LB Kenneth Murray, TE Gerald Everette, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, CB Michael Davis, LB Eric Kendricks, C Corey Linsley
Key additions: Coach Jim Harbaugh, OC Greg Roman, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, OLB Bud Dupree, CB Kristian Fulton, WR DJ Chark, LB Denzel Perriman
Key draft picks: T Joe Alt, TE Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe
Summary: I was bearish on the Chargers last year predicting eight wins, but even I didn’t see this team winning only five games without an injury to their quarterback. Anyways, now the men take over as Jim Harbaugh takes over the team to change the culture of the program. So does that mean this is going to happen overnight? No, probably not, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me as I have the utmost respect for Harbaugh. The problem is that this team literally turned over everyone with a pulse on this team minus quarterback Justin Herbert and edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The good news for the Chargers is that they already have some decent guys in the trenches which will be anchored by the top offensive lineman in the draft in Joe Alt. Another great thing is that this schedule is very very workable even with a -10 net days rest. I think that Jim could actually shock some people and get this team into the playoffs his very first year. The problem is that I do not like the price of that at only +110 as the market is already a bit too high on this team. Gonna go shopping for a better number.
My Number: 9.77 wins
Action – None
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: -2
Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -130
2023 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.65
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ LA Rams, vs Miami, @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Josh McDaniels, RB Josh Jacobs, DE Bilal Nichols, T Jermain Eluemunor, CB Emik Robertson, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE Austin Hooper, DT Jerry Tillery, WR Hunter Renfrow, QB Brian Hoyer
Key additions: Coach Antonio Pierce, OC Luke Getsy, DT Christian Wilkins, QB Garner Minshew, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Josh Jenkins
Key draft picks: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, T Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg
Summary: Now that the Raiders team did everything that they could to save interim coach Antonio Pierce’s job, many of them got the chopping block. Thanks guys! Anyways, the Raiders bring in the mustache Gardner Minshew to try and make a push this year in the AFC West. As much as I like the guy, he isn’t a starting quarterback in the league. Many folks including myself think that the Raiders should have made a move to trade up for a real quarterback in the draft, but I myself have soured on that lately. Maybe Aiden O’Connell takes a big step forward. He isn’t the most mobile guy, but he does throw a decent ball. The Raiders defense is the thing that kept them in some big games, and their ranking shot up all the way to 9th in EPA. The offense ranking 26th in EPA was the reason that Josh McDaniels had gotten fired. The big question is if Luke Getsy is a good OC or not. It’s hard to tell that from the last few years working with a guy who can’t read a defense like Justin Fields, but it seemed that the market was much quicker to scoop up Luke Getsy than to sign Justin Fields to their roster as a quarterback. Looking at the Raiders last few games, they played quite well blowing out the Chargers and the Broncos, while beating the Chiefs without having to complete a pass for the last three quarters. I think the Raiders could be a little dangerous this year.
My Number: 7.58 wins
Action – Over 6.5 wins for 1 star
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -3
Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -120
2023 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 6.77
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Seattle, @ NY Jets, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, DT Johnathan Harris, S Justin Simmons, DE Mike Purcell, CB K’Waun Phllips, T Cameron Fleming
Key additions: S Brandon Jones, WR Josh Reynolds, DE Malcom Roach, LB Cody Barton
Summary: Imagine hating your quarterback that you just payed 1.5 years ago so much that you just give him away while paying his salary. This is the Sean Payton Denver Broncos. The big question to me is if this is really Russell Wilson’s fault? The Broncos ranked 20th in dropback EPA and 17th in rush EPA. I mean, it isn’t great but Russell also didn’t have a bunch of good non-injured skill guys to really throw the ball to. The real ugly spot was the defense who finished ranking 25th in EPA. I will say that they did improve in the middle of the season, but then faltered again down the stretch. The really strange thing last year to bettors was how Denver beat the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns mid-season, almost giving them a false sense of hope. Denver told Russell Wilson to restructure his deal or be benched. I thought that was very strange thing to do during the regular season. Turns out that Wilson had some injury clauses that would guarantee him a lot of money had he gotten injured at the end of 2023. Anyways, the Bo Nix era has began, and I am higher on this quarterback than most of the market. Maybe Jared Stidham starts the first few games, but I just do not see him lasting that long. Denver didn’t get much help in free agency or the draft due to that large Wilson contract, so I have to assume that this team is in for some trouble. The schedule is quite rough this year as this team is also second worst in net rest days at -17. I lean under the win total, but I have a lot of respect for Sean Payton and probably wouldn’t bet under 5.5.
My number: 4.88
Action – Lean under
Denver Broncos Power Rating: -6
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Best Bet: Chiefs under 11.5 wins -115 – 1 star and Raiders over 6.5 wins -130 for 1 star
Baseball season continues chugging along. I am not having the greatest season in MLB, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 10 Units, and then we got 13 back in May, followed by a 10 unit downswing in June. For the season we currently sit at -8.6 Units, but I have a 100+ Unit MLB season on my record so I believe in my methods. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some very rare 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Petco Park in San Diego, CA where the San Diego Padres (48-43) will host the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) at 9:40 ET. The current line sits with the Diamondbacks as slight favorites at -112 (Padres -108) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 71 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 7mph.
The Snakes have played much better as of late going 17-12 since June 1st to climb back into the NL Wild Card race. They were a Game 1 blown save away from sweeping the Dodgers to start the week and put up 26 runs in their three game set at Chavez Ravine.
They will start Slade Cecconi on Friday night. He is the owner of a 5.81 ERA, which looks slightly inflated with his 4.41 xFIP. He has also been much better on the road with a 3.35 ERA outside of AZ and an 11.65 ERA at home. He has had good control only walking 1.73 Batters per 9 innings, while rocking a strikeout rate of 7.53 K/9. The Snakes are 5-7 in games that Cecconi starts this year. This Padres team hit him hard when they faced him in San Diego in early June chasing him after 4.1 IP giving up 3 runs on 7 hits.
The Padres have been on a very good run the last two weeks going 11-3 and averaging 5.93 Runs per game during that stretch. They return home tonight and have a nice long 9 game home stand before the All-Star Break.
The Friars will start Randy Vasquez. He has a 4.88 ERA, with a 4.72 xFIP. He has really struggled to strike batters out at the major league level with a career K/9 at only 6.55. He does limit walks as well though to a tune of 2.26 BB/9 so far in 2024. He has been a bit unlucky on batted ball statistics in 2024 with a .362 BABIP against. He also started against the Diamondbacks in early June allowing three runs in 6.2 IP allowing 6 hits with no walks and three strikeouts. He will need to find a way to cool off Christian Walker who is hitting .542 with 5 Home Runs in his last six games.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? I am looking at a couple of key metrics in making a differentiation between two very similar pitchers taking the mound tonight.
First on the offensive side of things. Both of these teams are solid checking in at 8th and 9th in runs scored (San Diego has 421 and Arizona 420.) The difference is in OPS vs Right Handed pitching where San Diego has a clear advantage with a .760 mark good for third in MLB. Aiding that number is that the Padres strikeout at the second lowest rate in MLB and when facing a guy without put away stuff like Cecconi they should get plenty of wood on the ball.
Secondly the Padres bullpen has performed much better in 2024. Arizona is 23rd in MLB with a 4.38 Bullpen ERA while the Padres sit at 3.83. The Padres may hold back some of their top arms as they have pitched in back to back games. While the DBacks aren’t in any back to back trouble, they did use plenty of bullpen pitches overall in the series with the Dodgers with four of their arms going in two of three games and two other guys throwing over 40 pitches in a game. They actually made a move to call up a fresh bullpen arm for tonight.
Fat Friars Feed
Padres -108 1.5 Units
BONUS FREE PARLAY – 1 Unit Orioles and Royals + 151
We have a great show for you today! The one and only Mike North @North2North is back to break down some sports! First, Kiev talks some AFC East and West divisional previews with some plays. Next, Mike comes on and the guys get right into baseball. What happened to the Cubbies? Then, Mike and Kiev get into some football with some rule changes and some Chicago Bears talk. Finally, the guys get into some teams that may have some value from division from a season win total or even an ATS perspective. Happy 4th of July everyone! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Cam Davis won the Rocket Mortgage Classic, earning his second PGA TOUR title. Unfortunately for us, Davis Thompson (35-1) came up just short, finishing one shot behind Davis. We’ve now had the winner or the runner-up in each of the last four events.
The PGA TOUR now heads to Silvis, Illinois, for the 53rd playing of the John Deere Classic.
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth, a two-time winner at the John Deere Classic, returns to TPC Deere Run, the site of his first TOUR victory.
Sepp Straka
SeSepp Straka aims to become the first repeat winner at the John Deere Classic since Steve Stricker, who won three consecutive titles from 2009-2011. Straka has three top-five finishes this season.
Luke Clanton
Luke Clanton, the standout from Florida State, made the cut at the U.S. Open and contended at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before finishing with a 72 on Sunday (T10).
Harry Higgs
Harry Higgs, who has already won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour, has secured his PGA TOUR return next season. This will be his sixth TOUR start this season.
Jackson Buchanan
Jackson Buchanan, the Big Ten Golfer of the Year in 2024, will make his non-major PGA TOUR debut. Buchanan, a junior at the University of Illinois, missed the cut at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
Cole Sherwood
Cole Sherwood will make his PGA TOUR debut after participating in two Korn Ferry Tour events and last week’s PGA TOUR Americas event. Sherwood, who finished No. 7 on the PGA TOUR University rankings, helped Vanderbilt win seven team titles this season and earned All-SEC First Team honors.
Neal Shipley
Neal Shipley returns to action after finishing T20 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Shipley was the Low Amateur at both the Masters and the U.S. Open before turning professional.
TPC Deere Run, located in Silvis, Illinois, was established in 1999 and designed by former PGA Tour professional D.A. Weibring. The course is set along the Rock River, offering picturesque views and a blend of natural landscapes, including wooded areas, rolling hills, and lush fairways. The signature hole, the par-3 16th, features a dramatic downhill shot to a green surrounded by water, making it a favorite among players and spectators alike.
The John Deere Classic has been held annually at TPC Deere Run since 2000. Originally known as the Quad Cities Open, the tournament began in 1971 as a “satellite event” for the PGA Tour and became an official PGA Tour event a year later. The tournament has undergone several name changes and title sponsors over the years, including Miller Brewing Company (1982–85), Hardee’s (1986–94), and John Deere (since 1999).
Traditionally held in July, the John Deere Classic is well-regarded for its community involvement and charitable contributions. The tournament is part of the “Birdies for Charity” program, which has raised millions of dollars for local and regional charities. The event has also been a pivotal platform for emerging talent, with several young golfers achieving their first PGA Tour victories here.
One of the tournament’s highlights is the “John Deere Classic Charter,” a special charter flight that transports players directly to the British Open immediately following the conclusion of the event, ensuring that top competitors can participate in both tournaments seamlessly.
Notable champions of the John Deere Classic include Jordan Spieth, who secured his first PGA Tour win here in 2013 at the age of 19, and Steve Stricker, who won the event three consecutive times from 2009 to 2011. Michelle Wie was also given a sponsor’s exemption in 2005 and 2006.
After the John Deere Classic wrapped up in 2021, TPC Deere Run underwent a major renovation. The $1.8 million project involved new tee boxes on the 1st hole, the reconfiguration of numerous bunkers, and a better drainage system for the course.
72-Hole Record (Event):
257, Michael Kim (2018)
18-Hole Record (Event):
59, Paul Goydos (1st Round, 2010)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by D.A. Weibring in 1999, TPC Deere Run features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.
In terms of length, TPC Deere Run is one of the more average courses on the Tour measuring 7,289 yards.It ranks 22nd out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 8th of 44, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,500 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are only 76 bunkers which ranks as the 21st most of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 158 yards and 226 yards.Last year, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par, No. 16 (-0.134).
No. 3 ‘Stone House’, 186 Yards, Par 3: “This uphill Par 3 will play much longer than it reads on the scorecard. A set of bunkers guard the right side, while a bent grass collection area is ready to grab the shots that go long and left. The green runs from front to back, making club selection crucial to hitting the green in regulation.”
No. 7 ‘Timber Ridge’, 226 Yards, Par 3: “This is the longest of the 3 pars on the course, and the most picturesque. Into the normal prevailing wind, this hole will test the accuracy of even the best players. Carry it to the green or carry the bunker on the right and let the ball feed down to the green. You choose your plan of attack.”
No. 12 ‘Master Stroke’, 215 Yards, Par 3: “A long par 3 through a tree-lined fairway to a well-bunkered green. This is one of the bigger greens on the course… but don’t miss it, there is trouble all around it.”
No. 16 ‘Mother Earth’, 158 Yards, Par 3: “Most likely, the “Signature Hole.” This picturesque, short par 3 sits on a bluff 40 feet above the Rock River. It is guarded in front by a deep ravine and to the right by a large bunker. To the left is the Rock River and all the perils it commands. It may be short, but it is dangerous.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Deere Run. No. 14 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 361 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 503 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9 (+0.144).
No. 4 ‘Friendship Farm’, 454 Yards, Par 4: “A unique hole with a large oak tree in the middle of the landing area that creates a double fairway. Bunkers guard the left side while trees guard the right side of the fairway. The green sits at one of the highest points on the course, and if you miss the green left right, or long, you are in for a tough chip to a small green.”
No. 6 ‘William Butterworth’, 367 Yards, Par 4: “The second-shortest par 4 on the course is also the tightest. This hole was carved out of the forest, and while short on length, it is long on danger. A straight drive will leave a short iron to a green that has a large swale and bunkers in the front, and a bent grass collection area in the back. Miss this green, and you have a tough chip to an undulating green.”
No. 11 ‘Jump Start’, 432 Yards, Par 4: “A hole that from the tee looks benign. A drive to a tree-lined fairway that requires length and accuracy. The second shot to a demanding green that sits on the edge of one of the two ravines that run through the property. Short of the green slopes toward the ravine, but a courtesy bunker is placed on the right side of the green to save most balls from finding a watery grave.”
No. 14 ‘Deere Run’, 361 Yards, Par 4: “This is the ultimate risk/reward hole. It is drivable but the perils are many. Go for it and miss left and you are in the “valley of sin.” A tightly-mowed area that will leave you with a blind shot to a small, well-protected green. Go long and you will be lost down a 60-foot bluff.”
No. 18 ‘Conquistador’, 476 Yards, Par 4: “A great finishing hole that will put a premium on driving accuracy. Hit it long and straight to avoid the fairway bunker on the left, but you must keep it on the left side of the fairway. From there, it is a long shot to a deep and narrow green that is guarded on the right by two large bunkers and on the left by a long and narrow pond.”
There are three Par 5’s at TPC Deere Run, No. 2, No. 10, & No. 17. They all played under par in 2023, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 2 with a scoring average of 4.485.
No. 2 ‘Colonel Davenport’, 561 Yards, Par 5: “A downhill tee shot to a fairway some 50 feet below makes this hole play shorter than its listed length. A good drive, and it should be reachable in two. The entrance to the green is tight, and is guarded by wetland bunkers and a stand of trees. The smallish green was designed to make pinpoint accuracy a must.”
No. 10 ‘Cor-ten’, 596 Yards, Par 5: “Not real tight on your first and second shots, but they better be long. The green is very small for a par 5 and there is no room for error on your third shot. Bunkers protect the left side while a pond protects the right.”
No. 17 ‘Stadium’, 569 Yards, Par 5: “Probably reachable in two for the longest hitters, but they will have to have a perfectly-placed tee shot to do it. The fairway is tight and tree-lined, and the green is guarded in front by bunkers. The green is elevated slightly with bent grass collection areas all around. Miss the green, and you will have a tough chip to the hole.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC Deere Run
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.51
285.77
Driving Accuracy
62%
71%
GIR Percentage
66%
70%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.16
27.67
Scrambling Percentage
58%
59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.49
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Deere Run.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Dougherty
Alejandro Tosti
Kevin Yu
Cameron Champ
Keith Mitchell
Rico Hoey
Jordan Spieth
Jhonattan Vegas
Aaron Rai
Luke Clanton
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at TPC Deere Run. Four of the past five winners ranked 18th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kelly Kraft
Aaron Rai
Sepp Straka
Russell Knox
Joel Dahmen
Kevin Yu
Keith Mitchell
Lee Hodges
Ben Griffin
Troy Merritt
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The average green size at Detroit Golf Club is 5,500 sq. ft. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.Three of the past four winners ranked 17th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Robby Shelton
Joseph Bramlett
Jorge Campillo
Davis Thompson
Sungjae Im
C.T. Pan
Jacob Bridgeman
Patrick Cantlay
Adam Long
Beau Hossler
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The green complexes at TPC Deere Run are L-93 bentgrass .100”. Four of the past six winners ranked 4th or better in SG: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
Dylan Wu
J.T. Poston
Maverick McNealy
Taylor Montgomery
Beau Hossler
Roger Sloan
Harry Hall
Richy Werenski
Andrew Landry
Nick Dunlap
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Deere Run range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sami Valimaki
Adam Schenk
Sam Ryder
Kevin Yu
Kelly Kraft
Sungjae Im
Alejandro Tosti
Michael Kim
Zac Blair
Chez Reavie
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
Five of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Deere Run range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Mac Meissner
Taylor Montgomery
Sepp Straka
Ryo Hisatsune
Adam Svensson
Chad Ramey
Kevin Yu
Pierceson Coody
Andrew Putnam
Will Gordon
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
All three Par 5’s at TPC Deere Run range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Thompson
J.J. Spaun
Jake Knapp
Ryan McCormick
Patrick Cantlay
Zecheng Dou
Sungjae Im
Seamus Power
Jacob Bridgeman
Sam Stevens
Birdies or Better Gained
The winning score has been -21 or better in four of the last five editions of the John Deere Classic. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Justin Lower
Maverick McNealy
Davis Thompson
Wesly Bryan
Nick Dunlap
Sungjae Im
Pierceson Coody
Keith Mitchell
Luke Clanton
Davis Riley
Proximity Gained: 100-150 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 100-150 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Montgomery
Jacob Bridgeman
Cody Gribble
Andrew Landry
Adam Long
Sam Ryder
Patton Kizzire
Joshua Creel
Roger Sloan
Russell Knox
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Nicholas Lindheim
Lucas Glover
Russell Knox
Justin Lower
Chan Kim
Scott Gutschewski
Chandler Phillips
Andrew Novak
Cody Gribble
J.T. Poston
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the TPC Deere Run has proven to be slightly advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Jordan Spieth
Greyson Sigg
Alex Smalley
Sepp Straka
Adam Svensson
Maverick McNealy
Adam Schenk
Seamus Power
Daniel Berger
Denny McCarthy
The Field:
This year’s John Deere Classic will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winner – FedExCup – Last Five Seasons
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
Past Champion of Respective Event
Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
Top 70 in prior year’s FedExCup Points List through the FedExCup Playoffs
Top 125 Prior Seasons FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Point Lists
Career money exemption
Sponsor exemption (DP World Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, Q-School Category)
Sponsor exemption (members not otherwise exempt)
Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
PGA Section Champion/Player of the Year
Major medical extension
Leading points winner from Korn Ferry Tour
Reorder of DPWT / KFT / Q-School Category
No. 1 player PGA TOUR University (current year)
Reorder Category – Cat. 39 thru 44
Open Qualifying
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Sepp Straka (’23), J.T. Poston (’22), Lucas Glover (’21), Dylan Frittelli (’19), Michael Kim (’18), Ryan Moore (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15, ’13), Zach Johnson (’12), Sean O’Hair (’05)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Aaron Rai, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Benjamin Griffin, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Cole Sherwood, Davis Riley, Erik Barnes, Harry Hall, Hayden Springer, Jackson Buchanan, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Luke Clanton, Mac Meissner, Max Greyserman, Neal Shipley, Nick Dunlap, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Tracy Vest, Wilson Furr
Sponsor Exemptions:
Jackson Buchanan, Luke Clanton, Harry Higgs, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Cole Sherwood, Neal Shipley, Kyle Westmoreland
Players with ties to Illinois in the Field:
Birthplace:
Doug Ghim – Des Plaines, Illinois
Nick Hardy – Northbrook, Illinois
Kevin Streelman – Winfield, Illinois
College:
Adrien Dumont de Chassart – Illinois (2023)
Nick Hardy – Illinois (2018)
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
WD: Patrick Cantlay
WD: Cam Davis
WD: Taylor Montgomery
IN: Zecheng Dou (Alternate)
IN: Cody Gribble (Alternate)
IN: Russell Knox (Alterante)
IN: Joshua Creel (Monday Qualifying)
IN: Chase Johnson (Monday Qualifying)
IN: Blake Hathcoat (Monday Qualifying)
IN: Anders Larson (Monday Qualifying)
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Sungjae Im (+1400) is coming off a T3 finish at the Travelers Championship, which was his best performance of the season. Before that, he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, finished T8 at the Memorial Tournament, and T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but did win the Woori Financial Group Championship on the KPGA (Korean Tour). This will be his third appearance at the John Deere Classic having finished T47 in 2021 and T26 in 2019.
Sepp Straka (+1600) is the defending champion of the John Deere Classic. He started off the 2024 season on a rough note missing the cut in three of his first six events but has turned things around as of late. Straka has two top 5 finishes in his last four starts and is coming off a T23 finish at the Travelers Championship.
Aaron Rai (+2000) is coming off his best performance of the season finishing T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has now finishes inside the top 20 in each of his last three starts. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week at the John Deere Classic.
Jordan Spieth (+2200) has struggled this season only finishing inside the top ten three times this season. In his last three starts, he missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament, finished T41 at the U.S. Open, and T63 at the Travelers Championship. Spieth’s last appearance in the John Deere Classic was back in 2015 when he won the event for his second time having previously won this tournament also back in 2013.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score at the Rocket Mortgage Classic has been under 263.5 in four of the last five editions. The lone exception was in 2021 when Lucas Glover posted a 265 (-19). Half of the 22 winners on this par-71 public course have matched or exceeded 20 under par. This includes 2018 champion Michael Kim, who finished with a 27-under 257, the seventh-lowest score in TOUR history.
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be a Playoff? (Yes +300 / No -400)
The John Deere Classic has not ended in a playoff since 2015 when Jordan Spieth defeated Tom Gillis.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes -125 / No -115
In 2023, there were no one hole-in-one’s made. In 2022, there were two holes-in-one, one made on No. 3 and one made on No. 12.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses (Event):
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (perround)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Adam Svensson
3
67.92
T21
T24
–
T18
–
Greyson Sigg
2
67.63
T13
T16
–
–
–
Seamus Power
5
67.95
T13
–
T8
T61
T16
Alex Smalley
3
67.75
T2
T16
T47
–
–
Adam Schenk
5
67.93
T4
WD
T4
T6
MC
Patton Kizzire
5
68.68
MC
T16
T11
–
T30
Ryan Moore
14
68.29
MC
T24
T2
T18
T55
Sepp Straka
3
67.80
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (perround)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Sunghoon Kang
7
70.00
MC
MC
MC
–
MC
Ryan Brehm
5
72.00
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Joseph Bramlett
4
71.13
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Ben Martin
7
73.00
MC
MC
MC
–
–
K.H. Lee
2
70.75
MC
–
–
MC
–
Ben Taylor
2
73.00
MC
–
MC
–
–
Robby Shelton IV
3
69.38
MC
–
MC
–
–
Kevin Chappell
5
69.38
MC
MC
–
–
–
Zecheng Dou
2
72.25
MC
–
–
–
MC
Zac Blair
5
70.00
MC
–
–
–
MC
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Sepp Straka (-21)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sepp Straka
7th
7th
18th
34th
4th
2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
J.T. Poston
15th
1st
10th
1st
31st
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
Price: 55-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Lucas Glover
29th
4th
3rd
17th
19th
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
Price: 90-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Dylan Frittelli
10th
15th
60th
2nd
2nd
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Sepp Straka
T64 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T38 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T16 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T29 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
2022: J.T. Poston
T2 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T37 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T9 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2021: Lucas Glover
T41 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
T37 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2019: Dylan Frittelli
T46 – 3M Open (PGA)
T46 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
59 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Sepp Straka
2021
2019
Sepp Straka
MC
T26
2022: J.T. Poston
2021
2019
2018
2017
J.T. Poston
MC
MC
T65
T64
2021: Lucas Glover
2019
2017
2015
2014
2013
2009
2008
2007
2005
2004
Lucas Glover
T10
T25
MC
MC
T15
T66
MC
T11
MC
T32
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2019: Dylan Frittelli
Tournament Debut
Picks (Outrights):
Denny McCarthy (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Maverick McNealy (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Seamus Power (+5000) – BetRivers
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Jhonattan Vegas (+8000) – BetRivers
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
David Skinns (+15000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
Harry Hall (+25000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.04 to win 10.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.02 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Luke Clanton (+175) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Ben Griffin (+188) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Andrew Novak (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Ben Kohles (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Brewers vs Rockies +109 O/U 11.5
Coors field today with the wind blowing in. Should that matter? Not according to the money. This total went up from 11 to 11.5 this morning, and for good reason. Dallas Keuchel is taking the helm for the Brew Crew and this dude has an atrocious 11.25 ERA and a 14.64 xERA. Ryan Feltner is pitching for the Rockies with a 5.82 ERA and a .348 wOBA. This isn’t good at all for unders. I know that the wind is blowing in some, but that may not matter much at Coors where the ball flies freely. The Brewers are good at hitting the right handed pitchers ranking 5th in wRC+. Now we know that Colorado is maybe the worst hitting team in all of baseball, but they at least rank 16th in runs per game at 4.26. Against Keuchel that should be the low end. Colorado’s bullpen ranks 28th in FIP while the Brewers rank only 18th. I see some runs this game and will take the over.
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Twins vs Mariners +110 O/U 7.5
This should be a good game today were the Twins visit the west coast in Seattle. This will be a late game. Pablo Lopez takes the mount for the Twinkies and he has been poor with a 5.11 ERA and a 3.97 FIP. Giving up the long ball has been his crutch. The Mariners have one of their ace’s Bryce Miller at the helm with a 3.9 ERA and a 4.16 FIP. Pretty average I should say, but definitely the better pitcher in this matchup. The Twins get the slight nod for hitting ranking 9th in wRC+ to the Mariners at 18th, but I will say that the Twins have had a much easier strength of schedule up to this point. I do not trust the Mariners bullpen anymore as they have been moving down the ranks over the past month, but I do trust that they will start out hot with the better pitcher. Both teams are pretty healthy. I am getting plus money here on the home team. I have to take that for 5.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is back from vacation, refreshed and ready to dive into college football! The one and only Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports is back to break down the 2024 college football conferences. First, Kiev talks about some football packages that are now live up at The OddsBreakers website. Then, Brad comes on and the guys get right into some fun summer plans that Brad has cooking. After that, Kiev and Brad talk college football rule changes, top 5 coaches and potential playoff teams that are not ranked. Next, the guys get into some teams that may have some value from each conference from a season win total or even an ATS perspective with a bunch of FREE PLAYS. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 303 and a few plays that he is making for the big event. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The 2024 NHL Draft is poised to be an exciting event, beginning on Friday, June 28. Round 1 will be held on Friday, June 28 (7 p.m. ET, ESPN, ESPN+, SN, SN+, TVAS), followed by Rounds 2‑7 on Saturday, June 29 (11:30 a.m. ET, NHLN, ESPN+, SN, SN1, SN+). This annual gathering offers a prime opportunity to delve into the future of hockey and speculate on the next generation of talent entering the league.
While the secretive nature of NHL front offices makes it difficult to predict their strategies and scouting assessments, several prospects have emerged as standout picks, drawing significant attention. This year’s draft, hosted at Sphere in Las Vegas, promises to be a spectacle as teams vie for the best young talent to bolster their rosters.
Macklin Celebrini of Boston University, the Hobey Baker Award winner, is expected to be the No. 1 overall draft pick this year. After his selection, the rest of the draft becomes more unpredictable. I’ll analyze a few draft position props and share my thoughts on who might be picked and where they’ll likely land.
NHL First Round Draft Order
Pick Number
Team
1
San Jose Sharks
2
Chicago Blackhawks
3
Anaheim Ducks
4
Columbus Blue Jackets
5
Montreal Canadiens
6
Utah Hockey Club
7
Ottawa Senators
8
Seattle Kraken
9
Calgary Flames
10
New Jersey Devils
11
Buffalo Sabres
12
Philadelphia Flyers
13
Minnesota Wild
14
San Jose Sharks (from PIT)
15
Detroit Red Wings
16
St. Louis Blues
17
Washington Capitals
18
Chicago Blackhawks (from NYI)
19
Vegas Golden Knights
20
New York Islanders (from TBL via CHI)
21
Los Angeles Kings
22
Nashville Predators
23
Toronto Maple Leafs
24
Colorado Avalanche
25
Boston Bruins (via DET and OTT)
26
Montreal Canadiens (from WPG)
27
Carolina Hurricanes
28
Calgary Flames (from VAN)
29
Dallas Stars
30
New York Rangers
31
Anaheim Ducks (from EDM)
32
Philadelphia Flyers (from FLA)
Liam Greentree Under 21.5 (-120) – DraftKings
Liam Greentree (6-3, 215) didn’t have the best showing for Canada at the recent U18 Worlds, with only four points (two goals, two assists) in seven games. However, he led the Windsor Spitfires with 36 goals and 54 assists, totaling 90 points in 64 games. Greentree is a big winger who can protect the puck and go hard to the net creating traffic. Even with his size, he’s a creative player with great puck skills who can make smart passes. However, his greatest asset is his NHL-quality shot. As one NHL scout said, “I think he’s a beast right now. Imagine him in two years.”
Liam Greentree has been linked to the Detroit Red Wings at pick No. 15, the St. Louis Blues at pick No. 16, the New York Islanders at pick No. 20, and the Los Angeles Kings at pick No. 21.
Given his skillset, I believe he’ll be selected within the 15-21 range. The positive aspect is that multiple teams have shown interest in him, increasing his chances of going around the midpoint of the first round.
Greentree could significantly aid the Red Wings’ rebuilding efforts. The Blues, having sold off a few key pieces in the last few years, landed some top prospects but still lack overall depth. The Islanders, with a limited prospect pool due to their lack of high-end draft picks, also need a goal-scorer, a role Greentree could effectively fill.
To bet on this prop at DraftKings, you can click the following link.
Leo Sahlin Wallenius Under 31.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Sahlin Wallenius (6-0, 180) is a smooth skater with a high hockey IQ, excellent vision, and impressive puck movement skills. In Sweden’s junior league, the 18-year-old tallied 42 points (11 goals, 31 assists) in 43 games.
According to NHL Director of European Scouting Jukka-Pekka Vuorinen, Leo Sahlin-Wallenius has a playing style comparable to Red Wings defenseman prospect Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who was the No. 17 pick in the 2023 draft.
Wallenius has been linked to the Carolina Hurricanes at the No. 27 pick and the Calgary Flames at the No. 28 pick.
The Hurricanes haven’t drafted a defenseman earlier than the fourth round in the past two years and haven’t selected one in the first round since Jake Bean in 2016. With no defenseman currently on their roster signed beyond the 2025-26 season, there’s a clear need to build prospect depth at the position. Despite this need, the Hurricanes have a decent number of defensive prospects close to being NHL-ready, including Scott Morrow (NCAA) and Alexander Nikishin (KHL). They also have other notable prospects such as Aleksi Heimosalmi, Domenick Fensore, and Anttoni Honka. The Hurricanes pride themselves on having a solid blueline, so if Morrow and Nikishin make the jump to the NHL, they’ll want to replenish their prospect pool.
The Flames are in a similar situation, with only one defenseman on their roster signed beyond the 2025-26 season, indicating a need to build prospect depth at the position. Last year, Calgary drafted two defensemen: Etienne Morin in the second round and Axel Hurtig in the seventh, after drafting none in 2022. The last time they selected a defenseman in the first round was in 2017 when they picked Juuso Valimaki, who currently plays for the Utah Hockey Club. The Flames have two solid defensive prospects in Etienne Morin and Jeremie Poirier, both high-flying, offensive defenders with good potential. However, beyond these two, they lack defensive prospects and need to focus on adding more depth.
While Wallenius has been linked to Carolina at No. 27 and Calgary at No. 28, I believe it is more likely that he goes to Calgary at No. 28.
To bet on this prop at DraftKings, you can click the following link.
Dominik Badinka Over 32.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Dominik Badinka (6-3, 190) played for the Malmo Redhawks J20 of the J20 Nationell, the Malmo Redhawks of the Swedish Hockey League (SHL), and the Czechia U20 International-Jr teams last season. He tallied three goals and 14 assists for a total of 17 points in 53 games. He has committed to playing for the Malmo Redhawks in the SHL for the 2024-25 season. Badinka is known for his defensive prowess, excelling at closing gaps, blocking shots, protecting his goaltender, and sacrificing his body to clear the zone.
However, Badinka tends to take ill-advised penalties, often reacting poorly when beaten or losing a one-on-one battle. His stick-handling is not the best in this draft, and his passing skills can be lackluster, leading to turnovers. Despite needing significant improvements, he has the potential to become a second-pairing defenseman. Missing the U18 Worlds last year due to appendicitis hurt his draft stock.
In all the mock drafts I’ve read, Dominik Badinka is not projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft. The highest projection I’ve seen for him is at pick No. 32 to the Chicago Blackhawks.
To bet this prop at DraftKings, you can click the following link.
Andrew Basha Under 35.5 (+105) – DraftKings
Andrew Basha (5-11, 187) showcases an incredible compete level with high-end puck skills, impressive skating, and the ability to shake off and beat defenders. Besides his skating, Basha’s best attribute is his playmaking. Although he isn’t the tallest player in the draft class, he plays bigger than his size. In 63 games for the Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL, he tallied 85 points (30 goals, 55 assists), including 28 power-play points (10 goals) and two short-handed goals.
Basha has been linked to the Montreal Canadiens at the No. 26 pick, the Philadelphia Flyers at the No. 31 pick, and the Anaheim Ducks at the No. 35 pick.
Given his lack of size and play off the puck, he might fall to the late first round or early second round. However, his versatility in various roles is appealing to many teams. If he doesn’t go in the first round, I believe Anaheim at No. 35 is a prime spot for him to be selected.
To bet on this prop at DraftKings, you can click the following link.
1st to Be Drafted – Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (-115) over Stian Solberg – DraftKings
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has been linked to the Minnesota Wild at the No. 13 pick, the Detroit Red Wings at the No. 15 pick, the St. Louis Blues at the No. 16 pick, and the Chicago Blackhawks at the No. 18 pick.
Brandsegg-Nygard (6-1, 207) plays in Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second division, and is a hard-working two-way player with good first-step quickness, decision-making, and vision. The 18-year-old recorded 18 points (eight goals, 10 assists) in 41 regular-season games and 10 points (four goals, six assists) in 12 playoff games. He also contributed five points (three goals, two assists) while averaging 17:22 of ice time in five games for Norway at the 2024 WJC.
Stian Solberg, on the other hand, has been linked to the Vegas Golden Knights at the No. 19 pick, though some mock drafts project him to go in the second round.
Solberg had a strong second half of his season, finishing with 15 points (five goals, 10 assists) in 42 regular-season games and nine points (two goals, seven assists) in 17 playoff games in Norway’s top men’s league. At the 2024 IIHF World Championship, the 18-year-old had three points (two goals, one assist) and led Norway with an average ice time of 22:44 in seven games. He is expected to play for Farjestad in the Swedish Hockey League next season.
On DraftKings, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard’s projected draft position is 15.5, while Stian Solberg’s projected draft position is 16.5.
To bet on this prop at DraftKings, you can click the following link.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Bettin
Scottie Scheffler continues his dominance on the PGA Tour winning the Travelers Championship. With his fourth Signature Event win of the season, Scheffler opens a 2,510-point gap over Xander Schauffele in the FedExCup. He plans to take the next 3 weeks off before The Open at Royal Troon.
Tiger's first 15 starts in 2000:
• 15 starts • 6 wins • 12 Top 10s • 0 MCs • 32 rounds in 60s • 68.7 Average
Scottie's first 15 starts in 2024:
• 15 starts • 6 wins • 13 Top 10s • 0 MCs • 40 rounds in 60s • 67.8 Average
Unfortunately for us, Tom Kim (50-1) came up short in the playoff. However, we did turn a profit this week (+2.41 Units) hitting several placements including P. Cantlay T10 (+160), B. Harman T10 (+250), and S. Scheffler 1st Round T10 (+100).
Scottie Scheffler has prevented us from having a nice little run.
Last 3 Events: the Memorial – Collin Morikawa (14-1)* U.S. Open – Bryson Dechambeau (20-1) 💰 Travelers – Tom KIim (50-1)*
* lost to Scottie Scheffler
— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) June 24, 2024
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Rickie Fowler
Rickie Fowler aims to defend his title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he emerged victorious in a three-man playoff against Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin last year. Despite a career resurgence last season, Fowler has struggled this year, managing only two top-20 finishes. He enters the event after missing the cut at both the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open, although he did secure a T20 finish at the Travelers Championship last week.
The senior at Ohio State has earned a sponsor’s exemption for this week’s event. Neal Shipley will make his non-major PGA TOUR debut. He is just the sixth player to win low amateur honors at both the Masters and the U.S. Open. Shipley made his professional debut on PGA TOUR Americas last week, tying for ninth at The Beachlands Victoria Open.
Luke Clanton
Luke Clanton, who narrowly lost to Neal Shipley for low amateur honors at the U.S. Open, is also competing in Detroit. Ranked as the world’s fifth-best amateur, Clanton had an exceptional season at Florida State, leading the team to the NCAA Championship final. He won three consecutive tournaments, was a finalist for all the major awards, and set the school’s single-season scoring record.
Fifteen-year-old Miles Russell is making his PGA TOUR debut after becoming the youngest player to make the cut on the Korn Ferry Tour. Last year, Russell won both the Junior PGA Championship and the Junior PLAYERS Championship, and he was the youngest player ever named the American Junior Golf Association’s Player of the Year—a distinction only Tiger Woods achieved before turning 16. Russell made the cut at this season’s LECOM Suncoast Classic, finishing tied for 20th.
Tom Kim
After leading in each of the first three rounds of the Travelers Championship, Tom Kim fell short in the playoff, losing to Scottie Scheffler. He will now compete in his ninth consecutive event.
Akshay Bhatia
Akshay Bhatia was in the final group at the Travelers Championship on Sunday but carded a 69 in the final round, placing T5 and taking him out of contention. Earlier this season, he secured his second career PGA Tour victory at the Valero Texas Open. Bhatia enters this week in great form, having finished inside the top 25 in each of his last three events.
Cameron Young
Cameron Young recorded the 13th sub-60 round in PGA TOUR history in Round 3 of the Travelers Championship, shooting an 11-under par with two eagles. He has previously played in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, finishing T2 in 2022.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen will make his second start as a pro after debuting at the Travelers Championship, where he finished T39. He topped the PGA TOUR University ranking in May, earning PGA TOUR membership for the remainder of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, following four celebrated seasons at Stanford.
Ben Griffin
Ben Griffin finished 67th at the Travelers Championship last week. He recently underwent a procedure to repair five retinal holes in his eyes. Despite still seeing “floaters,” which might be a permanent condition, Griffin has fully adjusted to wearing shades on the course.
Last week, @BenGriffinGolf had a procedure to get five retinal holes repaired in his eyes. Said he still sees "floaters", and it might be something he has to live with permanently. Has fully adjusted to wearing shades on the course and is still smiling like always. pic.twitter.com/Wm1aboI7NG
Nick Bienz, who works at Golf Galaxy and has never played in a PGA Tour-sanctioned event, shot a 65 in the Monday Qualifying round, earning a spot in a 5-for-4 playoff. While waiting for the rest of the field to finish, he enjoyed three beers. Bienz then secured his place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the eighth playoff hole. All credit goes to Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) for following this story. To read more about the four players who qualified on Monday for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, you can click the following link.
If this four minutes doesn’t make you love Mondays I can’t help you. Nick Bienz works at Golf Galaxy, has never played any pga tour sanctioned event, he is so nervous he’s pounding beers. Just shot 65. Please take the time to watch this. pic.twitter.com/BeXgsjiWFv
Playoff Format: Sudden-death format, with playoff holes being 18, 15, 16, then 14 played repeatedly
Historic Cut Line:
2023: -4
2022: -3
2021: -3
Course Scoring Average:
2023: 69.92 (-2.08), Rank 43 of 49
2022: 70.40 (-1.60), Rank 38 of 50
2021: 70.55 (-1.45), Rank 40 of 51
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Donald Ross (1916)
Recent Renovations:
Robert Trent Jones
Arthur Hills
Bruce Hepner
North Course will undergo a full renovation by Tyler Rae in 2025. Every aspect of the layout will be updated, including the drainage and irrigation system. To read more about the renovation, you can click the following link.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic was founded in 2019 replacing the Quicken Loans National. It’s been held at Detriot Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan every year. In 2022, the Rocket Mortgage Classic was the second last event on the FedExCup Regular Season schedule. However, in 2023 it was moved up in the schedule which has attracted a much stronger field than in previous editions.
The Detroit Golf Club was founded in 1899 by a group of wealthy Detroit businessmen. Initially, it featured a six-hole course laid out by professional golfer Willie Dunn. Due to increasing membership and demand, the club expanded to 18 holes in 1900. By 1913, it had grown to include two 18-hole courses. In 1916, the club hired the renowned Scottish golf course designer Donald Ross to redesign its courses. Ross is known for his work on over 400 courses across the United States. Ross designed two distinct courses for the club, the North and South Courses. Ross’s design philosophy focused on natural terrain use, strategic bunkering, and complex green structures, making his courses challenging yet fair. Over the years, the courses have undergone several restorations to preserve Ross’s original design elements while updating the facilities to modern standards.
In 2019, the Detroit Golf Club became the host venue for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, bringing PGA Tour golf back to Detroit for the first time since the 2009 Buick Open. Before playing host to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the club had only hosted two prior major tournaments including the 1911 Western Amateur and 1992 U.S Mid-Amateur.
72-Hole Record (Event):
262, Tony Finau (2022)
18-Hole Record (Event):
63, Nate Lashley (2019, first round), J.T. Poston (2019, second round), Davis Thompson (2021, first round), Cameron Young (2022, second round), Tom Kim (2022, fourth round), Adam Hadwin (2023, third round), Stephan Jaeger (2023, fourth round), Andrew Landry (2023, second round).
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Rocket Mortgage Classic layout is comprised of 17 holes from the North Course and one from the South Course. The PGA TOUR layout begins with holes 8 and 9 serving as Nos. 1 and 2, followed by hole 1 from the South Course serving as No. 3. The course then plays holes 2-7 of the North Course as Nos. 4-9 before the standard North Course back nine makes up the final nine for the championship.
Hole
Par
Yardage
Non-Tournament Routing
No. 1
4
397
North Course No. 8
No. 2
4
453
North Course No. 9
No. 3
4
393
North Course No. 1 Tee Box – South Course No. 1 Green
No. 4
5
635
North Course No. 2
No. 5
3
167
North Course No. 3
No. 6
4
461
North Course No. 4
No. 7
5
552
North Course No. 5
No. 8
4
372
North Course No. 6
No. 9
3
207
North Course No. 7
No. 10
4
425
North Course No. 10
No. 11
3
233
North Course No. 11
No. 12
4
489
North Course No. 12
No. 13
4
393
North Course No. 13
No. 14
5
555
North Course No. 14
No. 15
3
160
North Course No. 15
No. 16
4
446
North Course No. 16
No. 17
5
577
North Course No. 17
No. 18
4
455
North Course No. 18
Originally crafted by Donald Ross in 1916, Detroit Golf Club features a Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
In terms of length, Detroit Golf Club is one of the more average courses on the Tour measuring 7,370 yards. It ranks 22nd out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 10th of 44, with the average fairway width being 35.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,150 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers are one of the main defensives as there are 87 which ranks as the 11th most of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 160 yards and 233 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 150-175 yards. Last year, two of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par, No. 9 (+0.134) and No. 11 (+0.182).
No. 5, 167 Yards, Par 3: This uphill hole plays slightly longer than the yardage. A back hole location can produce difficult putting conditions as a spine runs through that area of the green. This hole is recreated on the Ross Memorial course at Boyne Highlands in Harbor Springs, Michigan
No. 11, 233 Yards, Par 3: Birdies are hard to come by on the longest of the four par three holes on the north. Guarded by two bunkers, this green looks relatively simple from the tee. However, closer inspection will reveal a front bowl and several places to hide the hole location
There are ten Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club. No. 8 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 372 yards with the longest being No. 12, playing 489 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 6 (+0.192).
No. 1, 397 Yards, Par 4: The two left-side fairway bunkers tighten up the driving area a bit, but there is plenty of room to the right. A good drive will leave players with a mid to short iron into the green for their second shot. The mighty oak off the right side of the tee was bent as a sapling by Native Americans to mark their Detroit to Saginaw trail. A bronze tablet at the base of this tree memorializes this bit of history
No. 8, 372 Yards, Par 4: Driver may not be the play off of the tee for everyone. Several fairway bunkers and out-of-bounds left may produce a layup tee ball short of any trouble. The second short normally plays about half of a club more as the green is slightly uphill.
No. 18, 455 Yards, Par 4: This great par four finishing hole has a diagonal penalty area that will dictate strategy from tee to green. With fairway bunkers left and right, a tee shot in the fairway will be most important, leaving long to mid-iron into the green. However, once on the green, the fun has just begun. Players will be faced with possibly the most difficult putting surface on the course.
There are four Par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club, No. 4, No. 7, No. 14, & No. 17. They all played under par in 2023, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 7 with a scoring average of 4.405.
No. 7, 552 Yards, Par 5: Again, being accurate off of the tee will determine how the player will attack this hole. Those that find the fairway may have the opportunity to reach this par five in two. Those that don’t will have to negotiate a challenging layup as a large tree on the left-hand side of the fairway and fairway bunkers short right of the green dictate strategy.
No. 14, 555 Yards, Par 5: Big hitters normally have a go at this green in two but the player needs to beware of the large penalty area short of the green. A layup shot can be challenging as the player will need to avoid a cross bunker on the right and the penalty are on the left. Once on the green, putting won’t come easy on this large and undulating surface
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6-8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Detroit Golf Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.47
296.02
Driving Accuracy
62%
66%
GIR Percentage
66%
72%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
28.42
Scrambling Percentage
58%
62%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.52
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Detroit Golf Club.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Dougherty
Keith Mitchell
Cameron Champ
Alejandro Tosti
Min Woo Lee
Rico Hoey
Kevin Yu
Jhonattan Vegas
Tom Kim
Taylor Moore
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Detroit Golf Club. Four of the past five winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kelly Kraft
Joel Dahmen
Keith Mitchell
Aaron Rai
Tom Kim
Kevin Yu
Bud Cauley
Lee Hodges
Ben Griffin
Dylan Wu
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The average green size at Detroit Golf Club is 5,150 sq. ft. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.Four of the past five winners ranked 14th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Webb Simpson
Joseph Bramlett
Alex Noren
Davis Thompson
Aaron Baddeley
Jorge Campillo
Martin Laird
C.T. Pan
Roger Sloan
Wesley Bryan
Driving Distance
We’ve seen long hitters have an advantage at this course in the past due to the soft fairways and patchy non-penal rough. There are also a lack of hazards which favors an aggressive approach off the tee.
Leaders in this category this season:
Min Woo Lee
Kevin Dougherty
Chris Gotterup
Gary Woodland
Alejandro Tosti
Jhonattan Vegas
Vincent Norrman
Kevin Yu
Pierceson Coody
Carl Yuan
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass & Poa Annua)
The green complexes at Detroit Golf Club are Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”. Four of the past five winners ranked 15th or better in SG: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Beau Hossler
Dylan Wu
Taylor Montgomery
Kevin Kisner
Aaron Baddeley
Maverick McNealy
S.H. Kim
Harry Hall
Min Woo Lee
Brendon Todd
Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at Detroit Golf Club range between 150-175 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Brendon Todd
Stewart Cink
Davis Skinns
Erik can Rooyen
Chandler Phillips
Adam Schenk
Tyler Duncan
Aaron Baddeley
K.H. Lee
Chan Kim
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards (x4)
Four of the ten Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club range between 350-400 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Stewart Cink
Martin Laird
Davis Thompson
Taylor Pendrith
Brandt Snedeker
Zac Blair
Tom Kim
Lanto Griffin
Zach Johnson
Doug Ghim
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x4)
Four of the ten Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Mark Hubbard
Tom Kim
Alex Noren
Aaron Rai
Ryan Moore
Rico Hoey
Robert MacIntyre
Min Woo Lee
Ben Kohles
Justin Lower
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Martin Trainer
Jacob Bridgeman
Keith Mitchell
Ryan McCormick
Davis Riley
Akshay Bhatia
Tom Kim
Michael Thorbjornsen
Beau Hossler
Cameron Champ
Birdies or Better Gained
The winning score has been -23 or better in four of the last five editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Kim
Pierceson Coody
Justin Lower
Ben Griffin
Maverick McNealy
Jacob Bridgeman
Keith Mitchell
Davis Riley
Wesley Bryan
Matti Schmid
Proximity Gained: 75-100 Yards / 200+ Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 75-100 yard range along with the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 75-100 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Joel Dahmen
Doug Ghim
Patrick Rodgers
Hayden Springer
Andrew Novak
Cam Davis
Jason Dufner
Nick Dunlap
Michael Kim
Beau Hossler
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Dougherty
Thorbjørn Olesen
Kevin Yu
Tom Kim
Patrick Fishburn
Robert MacIntyre
Andrew Novak
Sami Valmaki
Joe Highsmith
Brice Garnett
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Detroit Golf Club has proven to be slightly advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Taylor Moore
Taylor Pendrith
Stephan Jaeger
Justin Lower
Chris Kirk
Troy Merritt
Alex Noren
Tom Kim
Cameron Davis
J.J Spaun
The Field:
This year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winner of PGA/Open Championship
Winner of THE PLAYERS Championship
Winner of Open Championship
PGA TOUR tournament winner
Career money exemption
Sponsor exemption (DP World Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, Q-School Category)
Sponsor exemption (members not otherwise exempt)
Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
PGA Section Champion/Player of the Year
Past champion member
Top 30 on FedExCup Points List
Top 70 in prior year’s FedExCup Points List through the FedExCup Playoffs
Top 125 in prior season’s FedExCup Points List through the FedExCup Fall
Top 125 on prior season’s FedExCup (non-member)
Major medical extension
Leading points winner from Korn Ferry Tour
Top 10 and ties from previous event
Players 2-30 from prior year’s Korn Ferry Tour Points List, Top 10 from prior year’s DP World Tour and Top five and ties from PGA TOUR Q-School
No. 1 player PGA TOUR University (current year)
Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Rickie Fowler (’23), Cameron Davis (’22), Nate Lashley (’19)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Benjamin James, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Daniel Berger, Eric Cole, Erik Barnes, Francesco Molinari, Hayden Springer, Jackson Koivun, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Luke Clanton, Mac Meissner, Max Greyserman, Min Woo Lee, Neal Shipley, Nick Dunlap, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Miles, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Taylor Montgomery, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Wilson Furr
Sponsor Exemptions:
Luke Clanton, Jason Dufner, Ben James, Jackson Kolvun, Miles Russell, Neal Shipley, Jimmy Walker
Players with ties to Michigan in the Field:
Birthplace:
Erik Barnes – Kalamazoo, Michigan
Ryan Brehm – Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Willie Mack III – Flint, Michigan
College:
Ryan Brehm – Michigan State (2008)
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
OUT: Philip Knowles -> IN: Kelly Kraft (Alternate)
IN: Willie Mack III (Sponsor Exemption; Winner of The John Shippen)
IN: Nick Benz (Monday Qualifier)
IN: Danny Guise (Monday Qualifier)
IN: Angelo Giantsopoulos (Monday Qualifier)
IN: Brandon Berry (Monday Qualifier)
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Tom Kim (+1200) enters this week following a runner-up finish at the Travelers Championship, where he lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler. Prior to the Travelers, Kim finished T26 at the U.S. Open, T43 at the Memorial Tournament, and T4 at the RBC Canadian Open. This will be his third appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished 7th in 2022 and missing the cut last year.
Cameron Young (+1600) finished T9 at the Travelers Championship last week, marking his fifth top-10 finish this season on the PGA Tour. Despite eight runner-up finishes throughout his three-year career, he is still searching for his first victory on the PGA Tour. His best finish this season was at the Valspar Championship, where he finished two shots behind winner Peter Malnati. Young has played in this event once before, finishing runner-up to Tony Finau in 2022.
Min Woo Lee (+2000) will make his tournament debut this week. He enters in good form, having finished T21 at the U.S. Open and T24 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He came close to his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, finishing runner-up to Austin Eckroat.
Akshay Bhatia (+2200) captured his second career PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the Valero Texas Open. He enters this week in great form, having finished inside the top 25 in each of his last three events. Bhatia made his tournament debut last year, where he missed the cut.
Taylor Pendrith (+2500) has been playing well lately, heading into this week’s event. In his last three starts, he finished T33 at the Memorial Tournament, T16 at the U.S. Open, and T23 at the Travelers Championship. This will be his third appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T2 in 2022 and T14 in 2023.
Stephan Jaeger (+2500) captured his first career PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. In his last two starts, he finished T21 at the U.S. Open and T31 at the Travelers Championship. This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, where he missed the cut in 2019, finished 5th in 2022, and T9 in 2023.
Maverick McNealy (+2800) has been playing well recently, heading into this week’s event. In his last three starts, he finished T23 at the PGA Championship, T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T7 at the RBC Canadian Open. This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T8 in 2020, T21 in 2021, and missing the cut in 2022.
Keith Mitchell (+3000) is coming off one of his best performances of the season, finishing T10 at the RBC Canadian Open. Prior to that, he finished T37 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. This will be his second appearance at this event, having missed the cut in his tournament debut in 2019.
Alex Noren (+3000) has missed the cut in two of his last three PGA Tour starts, with the lone exception being a T22 finish at the Memorial Tournament. This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, where he missed the cut in 2020, finished T4 in 2021, and T9 in 2023.
Aaron Rai (+3000) enters this week in good form, having finished T14 at the RBC Canadian Open and T19 at the U.S. Open in his last two starts. His best finish on the PGA Tour was last month at TPC Craig Ranch (THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson), where he finished T4. He has played in this event once before, finishing T9 last year.
Davis Thompson (+3500) is coming off his second-best performance of the season after finishing T9 at the U.S. Open. His best finish of the year was at the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he finished runner-up to Chris Gotterup. This will be his third appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T58 in 2021 and T24 in 2023.
Will Zalatoris (+3500) hasn’t been in great form, failing to finish inside the top 40 in each of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. Last week, he finished T42 at the Travelers Championship. He has played in this tournament twice before, finishing 77th in 2021 and T20 in 2022.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score has been above 263.5 in three of the last five editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The outliers were in 2022 when Tony Finau set the 72-hole tournament record positing 262 (-26) and in 2019 when Nate Lashley finished -25 (263).
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be a Playoff? (Yes +300 / No -400)
Since the first edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019, the tournament has ended in a playoff twice. The most recent playoff happened last year when Rickie Fowler defeated Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes -230 / No +160)
In 2023, there was one hole-in-one which was made by Max Homa on No. 15. In 2022, there were two holes-in-one, one made on No. 11 and one made on No. 15.
To place a bet at FanDuel on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses (Event)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Taylor Moore
2
67.00
T4
6
–
–
–
Taylor Pendrith
2
67.25
T14
T2
–
–
–
Stephan Jaeger
3
68.00
T9
5
–
–
MC
Justin Lower
2
68.25
8
T30
–
–
–
Chris Kirk
4
68.38
T14
T17
T12
T21
–
Troy Merritt
4
68.44
T17
T14
T2
T8
MC
J.J Spaun
5
68.70
T33
T8
T32
T30
T13
Alex Noren
3
68.60
T9
–
T4
MC
–
Callum Tarren
2
68.75
T29
T20
–
–
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Michael Kim
3
73.83
–
–
MC
MC
MC
Andrew Novak
2
73.25
MC
MC
–
–
–
Scott Piercy
2
73.00
–
MC
MC
–
–
Martin Trainer
5
72.50
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
C.T. Pan
2
72.50
–
MC
–
MC
–
Benjamin Taylor
3
72.17
MC
–
MC
MC
–
Nick Hardy
2
72.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Erik van Rooyen
2
72.00
MC
–
–
MC
–
Joseph Bramlett
4
71.75
MC
MC
MC
MC
–
Bill Haas
2
71.50
–
MC
–
MC
–
Jason Dufner
4
71.00
MC
–
MC
MC
MC
Gary Woodland
3
71.00
–
MC
MC
–
MC
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Rickie Fowler (-24)
Price:14-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rickie Fowler
30th
3rd
2nd
14th
12th
2022: Tony Finau (-26)
Price: 14-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Tony Finau
2nd
1st
6th
9th
15th
2021: Cameron Davis (-18)
Price: 150-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Cameron Davis
34th
4th
9th
5th
22nd
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
Price: 7-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Bryson DeChambeau
1st
4th
51st
26th
1st
2019: Nate Lashley (-25)
Price: 250-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Nate Lashley
29th
3rd
6th
13th
2nd
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Rickie Fowler
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T5 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T6 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2022: Tony Finau
WON – 3M Open (PGA)
T28 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
2021: Cameron Davis
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T45 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T59 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T26 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – Valspar Championship (PGA)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
T6 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T8 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T3 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
2019: Nate Lashley
T28 – U.S. Open (PGA)
MC – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
69 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T29 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
T45 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Rickie Fowler
2022
2021
2020
2019
Rickie Fowler
MC
T32
T12
T46
2022: Tony Finau
2020
Tony Finau
T53
2021: Cameron Davis
2020
2019
Cameron Davis
MC
MC
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
Tournament Debut
2019: Nate Lashley
Tournament Debut
Picks (Outrights):
Maverick McNealy (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Maverick McNealy enters this week in strong form, having finished T23 at the PGA Championship, T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T7 at the RBC Canadian Open in his last three starts. His iron play, which was struggling earlier in the season, has improved significantly, with him gaining strokes on approach in four of his last five events.
McNealy has played in this tournament three times before, with his best finish (T8) coming in 2020 during his tournament debut. He also finished T21 in 2021 and missed the cut in 2022.
Over the last 24 rounds, McNealy ranks 13th in SG: Off the Tee, 21st in SG: Approach, 28th in SG: Around the Green, and 6th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His driving distance, where he ranks 46th on the Tour this season, should be advantageous this week. McNealy also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (5th), Par 4 Scoring 350-400 Yards (11th), Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards (17th), Par 5 Scoring 550-600 Yards (53rd), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (61st).
Taylor Pendrith (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Taylor Pendrith captured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at TPC Craig Ranch, winning THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He comes into this week having finished inside the top 25 in three of his last four starts. His putting has improved significantly, gaining strokes in six of his last seven starts. Pendrith’s approach play has also been trending positively, gaining strokes in that category in three of his last four starts.
Pendrith has played in this event twice before, finishing T2 in 2022 and T14 in 2023. Heading into the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Pendrith had three consecutive top-20 finishes. In 2023, when he finished T14, he was coming off two missed cuts.
Over the last 24 rounds, Pendrith ranks 38th in SG: Off the Tee, 50th in SG: Approach, 51st in SG: Around the Green, and 26th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His driving distance, where he ranks 15th on Tour this season, should be advantageous this week. Pendrith also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (18th), Par 4 Scoring 350-400 Yards (4th), Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards (22nd), Par 5 Scoring 550-600 Yards (20th), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (24th).
Davis Thompson (+3500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Davis Thompson is coming off his second-best performance of the season, finishing T9 at the U.S. Open. His best finish of the year was at the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he finished runner-up to Chris Gotterup. His overall game has been trending positively, especially his putting and approach play, in his last two starts.
This will be his third appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T58 in 2021 and T24 in 2023. In 2021, when he finished T58, he was fresh out of college, making his seventh start on the PGA Tour. Last year, when he finished T24, he was coming off two missed cuts.
Over the last 24 rounds, Thompson ranks 14th in SG: Off the Tee, 65th in SG: Approach, 4th in SG: Around the Green, and 86th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His putting has improved recently, gaining strokes in each of his last two starts. Thompson has also gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts. His driving distance, where he ranks 44th on the Tour this season, should be advantageous this week. Thompson also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (16th), Par 4 Scoring 350-400 Yards (3rd), Par 5 Scoring 550-600 Yards (34th), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (21st).
Matt Wallace (+5500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Matt Wallace struggled at the beginning of the season, missing the cut in four of his first eight starts. He turned things around at the Valspar Championship, finishing T17. Since then, he has only missed the cut once in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. His best finish of the season was at TPC Craig Ranch, where he finished 4th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Wallace is coming off a 15th-place finish at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour.
This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T12 in 2020, T10 in 2022, and T78 in 2023. Last season, when he finished T78, he had missed the cut in six of his eight prior starts.
Over the last 24 rounds, Wallace ranks 83rd in SG: Off the Tee, 27th in SG: Approach, 36th in SG: Around the Green, and 17th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His driving has improved in his last three starts, and his iron play, which struggled earlier in the season, has also improved, gaining strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Wallace also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (60th), Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards (12th), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (26th). While his ranking in Birdies or Better is lower than other selections, he has proven his ability to win in easy scoring conditions, as shown by his victory at the Corales Puntacana Championship last season with a winning score of -19.
Lee Hodges (+7500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units
Lee Hodges enters this week in solid form, contrasting his start to the season. In his last five events, Hodges has not finished outside the top 45. His best finishes during this stretch came at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge, where he finished T12 in both events.
This will be his third appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T44 in 2022 and missing the cut in 2023. However, when he missed the cut last year, his iron play was not in great shape leading into the tournament. Hodges won at a comparable course, capturing his first career victory at the 3M Open last season.
Over the last 24 rounds, Hodges ranks 125th in SG: Off the Tee, 8th in SG: Approach, 83rd in SG: Around the Green, and 51st in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His driving has improved in his last five starts, and his short game, which struggled earlier in the season, has gained strokes around the green in three of his last five starts.
Michael Kim (+15000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
Michael Kim enters this week’s event having finished inside the top 20 in four of his last six starts. In his most recent start, he finished T14 at the RBC Canadian Open. His best finish of the season was back in January, where he finished T6 at The American Express.
This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having missed the cut in each of his three prior trips. However, he is playing some of the best golf of his career, so his prior starts in the Rocket Mortgage Classic hold less weight. Last season, Kim played well at Sedgefield Country Club (a comparable course), finishing T5 at the Wyndham Championship.
Over the last 24 rounds, Kim ranks 136th in SG: Off the Tee, 41st in SG: Approach, 59th in SG: Around the Green, and 93rd in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). His driving has improved, gaining strokes in that category in two of his last three starts. Kim also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (15th), Par 4 Scoring 350-400 Yards (25th), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (9th).
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.13 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Stephan Jaeger (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Stephan Jaeger captured his first career PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He enters this week’s event having finished inside the top 25 in four of his last seven starts. His best performance during that span was at the RBC Heritage, where he finished T18.
This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having missed the cut in 2019, finishing 5th in 2022, and T9 last year.
Over the last 24 rounds, Jaeger ranks 15th in SG: Off the Tee, 70th in SG: Approach, 41st in SG: Around the Green, and 144th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). Although he has struggled on the greens in recent starts, he gained strokes putting in each of his last two appearances at this venue. His iron play has been inconsistent, but he has been trending in the right direction, gaining strokes on approach in his last two starts. Jaeger’s driving distance, where he ranks 17th on the Tour this season, should be advantageous this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Nicolai Hojgaard started the season with an impressive runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. Since then, he has had one other top-20 finish this season, which came at the Masters Tournament. In his last two starts, he finished T35 at the RBC Canadian Open and T50 at the U.S. Open.
This will be his second appearance at the Detroit Golf Club, having finished T21 at this tournament last year. Heading into that event, he was in worse form than this year, having missed the cut in both of his prior starts.
Over the last 24 rounds, Hojgaard ranks 79th in SG: Off the Tee, 55th in SG: Approach, 135th in SG: Around the Green, and 18th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Annua). While he ranks 79th in SG: Off the Tee due to accuracy issues, this week that should be less of an issue, and his distance is much more advantageous. His iron play has been improving, gaining strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Hojgaard also ranks highly in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds, including Birdies or Better Gained (45th), Par 4 Scoring 350-400 Yards (14th), Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards (21st), and Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (73rd).
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Alejandro Tosti (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Alejandro Tosti struggled at the beginning of the season, missing the cut in four of his first six starts. He found his form at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing T2. After that, he experienced another dip but is coming off his second-best finish of the season at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he finished T17.
He will be making his tournament debut this week, but the course should favor his skill set. Tosti is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, ranking 8th in Driving Distance this season. His iron play has also been more consistent in his recent starts.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Unit
Picks (Matchups):
Thorbjorn Olesen (+110) over Mark Hubbard – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Total Risk on Matchups: 1.00 Unit
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
This should be a good game today, but the wrong team is favored. I do not understand what the love is for Houston. This team ranks a nice 7th in wOBA, but their pitching isn’t all that good ranking 21st in opponent weighted on base average. The Orioles are both good at hitting and at pitching ranking 3rd and 4th in those same categories respectively. Framber Valdez takes the helm for the Astros with a 3.91 ERA and a 4.05 xERA. Albert Suarez is pitching for the Orioles with a huge 2.05 ERA and a 3.78 xERA. Everything that I see minus being at home favors the Baltimore. Take the Os.
