When I saw this open, I couldn’t cease to believe it! Ok, I’ll work on my comedy. Anyways, Dylan Cease is pitching for the Dads against Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Both of these pitchers are going in different directions in their careers as Mikolas xERA is at a nasty 4.37 to Cease at a nice 3.27. The Padres also hit much better than the Cardinals as they rank 8th in wOBA to 19th respectively for Saint Louis. Looking at this line, it assumes that home advantage should be over 80 cents to a dollar!
We have a quick show for you today! The show is on late and Kiev goes solo due to a medical issue yesterday. Kiev recaps his great weekend and Circa Sports and talks about the contests. He also gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 1. At the end, Kiev talks some fantasy football sleepers and busts in the wide receiver, tight end, and defense positions. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
Coaching changes are HUGE when it comes to betting totals. It is good to get ahead of the market. There are not just personnel and scheme changes, but there are also pace changes that we all must be aware of in order to correctly handicap the total as well as the side. Some of the research involved is that we can find out the history of these coaches and how they run their respective phase of their previous teams. Were they coordinators that ran the same schemes? Were they assistants who might follow the same footsteps as their leaders? It is great to try and find an edge this way and I decided to put some work into is so that I could share my thoughts on attempting to predict the future tempos of the teams with new coaches for the 2024 season.
1. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Previous Job: Head Coach, Washington
Speed Change – Slow to medium fast: Alabama last year slowed it down ranking 113th in pace of play. I expect a big jump forward ranking in the high 30s due to Kalen Deboer’s offense.
Projection: 39th in tempo
2. Brent Brennan, Arizona
Previous Job: Head Coach, San Jose State
Speed Change – Medium to Slow: Brent Brennan’s team last year really slowed it down at San Jose State ranking 121st in tempo. I expect slow, but not quite that slow.
Projection: 95th in tempo
3. Spencer Danielson, Boise State
Previous Job: DC at Boise State
Speed Change – Slow to Slow: No change here as Danielson coached most of the year. They tend to slow it down when beating opponents by margin.
Projection: 90th in Tempo
4. Bill O’Brian, Boston College
Previous Job: OC at NFL New England Patriots, before that Alabama OC
Speed Change – Medium to Fast: Alabama was 12th in plays per game during the Mac Jones era. I expect a much faster tempo out of Boston College.
5. Pete Lembo, Buffalo
Previous Job: AHC at South Carolina
Speed Change – Medium to Medium – Long has it been since Pete’s coaching tenure at Ball State. He has bounced around some. Tempo may go up slightly.
Projection: 51st in Tempo
6. Manny Diaz, Duke
Previous Job: DC at Penn State
Speed Change – Medium to Medium: Manny Diaz is defensive minded. He was the coach of Miami for a bit.
Projection: 73rd in Tempo
7. Dell McGee, Georgia State
Previous Job: AHC at Georgia
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Slow:Dell is from the Kirby tree and I do not see them rushing for anything.
Projection: 76th in tempo
8. Willi Fritz, Houston
Previous Job: Head Coach at Tulane
Speed Change – Medium to Slow:Willie Fritz isn’t rushing for anyone, they will rank in the 90s.
Projection: 92nd in Tempo
9. Curt Cignetti, Indiana
Previous Job: Head Coach at James Madison
Speed Change: Medium to Medium Slow: James Madison was darn good efficient, but they did not play all that fast. I still expect points scored for the Hoosiers.
Projection: 93rd in Tempo
10. Bob Chesney, James Madison
Previous Job: Head Coach, Holy Cross
Projection: 68th in Tempo
11. Sherrone Moore, Michigan
Previous Job: DC at Michigan
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Slow: Jim Harbaugh is gone, but his DC takes over. Why would he speed things up with a good running game and a good defense? He will do what worked last year
Projection: 125th in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach at Oregon State
Speed Change – Medium to Medium Slow: Jonathan Smith slowed down more and more over the years. He has a rushing game focus and knows how to get guys open.
Projection: 99th in Tempo
13. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee State
Previous Job: DC at Oklahoma State, old coach at Vanderbilt
Speed Change – Fast to Medium Slow – MTSU should slow it down a lot going from Rick Stockstill to Derek Mason as coach. Defensive mind.
Projection: 94th in Tempo
Previous Job: OC at Oklahoma
Speed Change – Slow to Very Fast:Jeff Lebby’s offense ranked 9th in plays per game at Oklahoma. I expect a huge change of pace here going from 115th in plays per game.
Projection: 8th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Mississippi State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: Choate comes from the Long Horns. He was a defensive coordinator making it hard to get a real gauge on the new speed.
Projection: 71st in Tempo
16. Bronco Mendenhall, New Mexico
Previous Job: Head Coach at San Diego State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Very Slow:Not many teams played slower than the Aztecs over the past five years or so. I expect more defensive approach from the Lobos.
Projection: 129th in Tempo
17. Tony Sanchez, New Mexico State
Previous Job: Wide Receivers coach at New Mexico State
Speed Change – Slow to Medium slow: Some continuity here after pretty much the rest of the team left for Vanderbilt. I think that this team keeps it slower, but not as slow as last year.
Projection: 88th in Tempo
Previous Job: DC at Oregon State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: I expect the same type of offense here with the continuity after Jon Smith left.
Projection: 105th in Tempo
19. San Diego State, Sean Lewis
Previous Job: OC at Colorado, and Kent State head coach before that
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Fast:Sean Lewis had an extremely fast offense at Kent State. He had the Buffs high flying as well before Deion Sanders had his mid season melt down. I expect ultra speed!
20. Ken Niumatalolo, San Jose State
Previous Job: TE coach at UCLA, but before that Navy for 15 years.
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Slow: No change here, but I expect San Jose State to go run heavy. I don’t think that they will do the option, but they will have to find an identity and it will most likely start on the ground.
Projection – 119th in Tempo
21. Major Applewhite, South Alabama
Previous Job: OC at South Alabama
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Fast: No big changes as Major Applewhite was offensive coordinator here last year
Projection: 36h in Tempo
22. Fran Brown, Syracuse
Previous Job: Defensive Backs Coach at Georgia
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: I do not expect a fast pace from a defensive coach.
Projection: 85th in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach at Duke
Speed Change – Slow to Medium:Duke’s pace was close to average last year and I think that Texas A&M will also be around that.
Projection: 71st in Tempo
24. Gerard Parker, Troy
Previous Job: OC at Notre Dame
Speed Change – Medium to Slow:Parker did not run a fast offense in Notre Dame rankings 119th in plays per game. I expect Troy to slow downs some.
Projection: 113th in Tempo
25. Jon Sumrall, Tulane
Previous Job: Head Coach at Troy
Speed Change – Slow to Medium: I expect Tulane to pick up the pace some, especially if they are trailing in the AAC. Troy’s pace was ranked last year in the high 50s. ‘
Speed Change -Very Fast to Medium Fast: There is continuity here, but I also think that Foster will focus on the defense some. I can’t imagine this being run exactly like Chip Kelly did it.
Projection: 29th in Tempo
27. Bryant Vincent, Louisiana Monroe
Previous Job: OC at New Mexico, but before that UAB
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Slow:This should be a pretty drastic change as Bryant Vincent runs a slow offense. He ranked in the 100s at UAB and last year at New Mexico
Projection: 105th in Tempo
28. Scotty Walden, UTEP
Previous Job: Head Coach at Austin Peay
Speed Change – Slow to Medium Fast: I expect a good deal faster over at UTEP this year, but harder to predict being that last year, Walden coached a good Austin Peay FCS team.
Projection: 38th in Tempo
29. Jedd Fisch, Washington
Previous Job: Head Coach at Arizona
Speed Change – Medium to Medium Fast: Washington actually was a fast team, but they slowed it down just due to blowing teams out. I think Fisch goes a little faster this year
Projection: 45th in Tempo
30. Wyoming, Jay Sawvel
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator at Wyoming
Speed Change – Slow to Slow: More continuity at Wyoming as I do not think a lot changes here.
Projection: 115th in Tempo
31. Fresno State, Tim Skipper
Previous Job: Assistant Head Coach at Fresno State
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Fast: Hope Jeff Tedford improves his health as interim Tim Skipper steps in from being the assistant. No changes.
Projection: 21st in Tempo
OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES:
Baylor – Jake Spavital will bring in the Air Raid at OC and I project the tempo at 16th from 55th
Pittsburgh’s new OC Kade Bell averaged 37.5 points per game at Western Carolina. I project the tempo at 40th from 67th.
East Carolina new OC John David Baker from from Ole Miss. I project the Tempo ranking 8th from 50th last year.
Stanford coach Troy Taylor will speed it up even more this year. I expect tempo to around 25th from 57th last year.
I expect Arkansas to speed it up some with new OC Bobby Petrino. I expect Tempo ranking in the 50s from 83rd last year.
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! We are LIVE at the Circa Las Vegas with some wonderful guests! Kiev @OBKiev and Shawn @TheGreatKnoche are joined by Mike Palm from Circa, Kramer from Sports Gambling Podcast and Vegas Matty from Footballcontest! #CircaMillions and #CircaSuvovor contests and some college and NFL Football! with some football and more! College Football Week 0-1 and NFL Division totals! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
The Travers Stakes headlines a thrilling Saturday at Saratoga, featuring five Grade 1 stakes races.
Race History:
The Travers Stakes, often referred to as the “Mid-Summer Derby,” is one of the most prestigious horse races in the United States. Held annually at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, the race was first run in 1864, making it the oldest major thoroughbred horse race in America. Named after William R. Travers, the president of the Saratoga Racing Association at the time, the race has been a significant event for three-year-old horses. Its history is rich with legendary winners, including champions like Man o’ War, Whirlaway, and American Pharoah. The Travers Stakes is part of Saratoga’s summer meet and is known for its challenging 1¼-mile dirt track. Its position on the racing calendar, after the Triple Crown series, often attracts top contenders, making it a key race in determining the year’s best three-year-old horse.
Race Information:
Date: August 24th, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Owner(s): Brookdale Racing, Inc., Edwards, Mark, Hicks, Judy B. and Magdalena Racing
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Dam: Sataves (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Fast Anna (Medaglia d’Oro)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
6
1
0
2024
4
4
0
0
2023
3
2
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
2
0
0
Name: Sierra Leone
ML Odds: 7-2
Owner(s): Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B., Smith, Derrick, Westerberg, Rocket Ship R
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)
Sire: Gun Runner (Candy Ride*Arg)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
3
3
1
2024
5
2
2
1
2023
2
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
0
1
1
Name: Unmatched Wisdom
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Klaravich Stables, Inc.
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Glide On By (Pure Prize)
Sire: Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
3
0
0
2024
3
3
0
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
1
0
0
Name: Corporate Power
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Courtlandt Farms (Donald and Donna Adam)
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Dam: Road to Victory (Quality Road)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
2
0
2024
5
2
2
0
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
1
0
Name: Batten Down
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Close Hatches (First Defence)
Sire: Tapit (Pulpit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
1
2
2024
6
2
1
2
2023
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
1
Name: Honor Marie
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Ribble Farms LLC, Eiserman, Michael H., Silver, Earl I., Fishbein, Kenneth E. an
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Dame Marie (Smart Strike)
Sire: Honor Code (A.P. Indy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
2
2
0
2024
4
0
1
0
2023
3
2
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
0
Name: Dornoch
ML Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, Two E
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: Good Magic (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
9
5
2
0
2024
5
3
0
0
2023
4
2
2
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
1
1
0
Name: Fierceness
ML Odds: 3-1
Owner(s): Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Dam: Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty)
Sire: City of Light (Quality Road)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
4
0
1
2024
4
2
0
1
2023
3
2
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
2
2
0
0
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
#1 – Thorpedo Anna
#7 – Dornoch
#8 – Fierceness
Off the Pace
#3 – Unmatched Wisdom
#5 – Batten Down
Middle of the Pact
#4 – Corperate Power
Closers
#2 – Sierra Leone
Picks:
$20 WIN – #2 Sierra Leone
TICKET COST $20.00
$5 EXACTA – 2 / 1, 4, 7, 8
TICKET COST $20.00
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! We are LIVE at the Circa Las Vegas with some wonderful guests! Kiev @OBKiev and Shawn @TheGreatKnoche are joined by Derek Stevens @DerekJStevens and Tony George @TGeorgeSports from @DocsSports! #CircaMillions and #CircaSuvovor contests and some college and NFL Football! with some football and more! College Football Week 0-1 and NFL Division totals! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We have a HUGE show for you today! We are LIVE at the Circa Las Vegas with some wonderful guests! Kiev @OBKiev and Shawn @TheGreatKnoche are joined by Las Vegas Cris @LasVegasCris, Jeff Benson @JeffreyBenson12, and Tony Gordon @Durbify #CircaMillions and #CircaSuvovor contests and some college and NFL Football! with some football and more! College Football Week 0-1 and NFL Division totals! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We have a HUGE show for you today! We are LIVE at the Circa Las Vegas with some wonderful guests! Kiev @OBKiev and Shawn @TheGreatKnoche are joined by Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas to discuss #CircaMillions and #CircaSuvovor contests and some college and NFL Football! with some football and more! College Football Week 0-1 and NFL Division totals! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Sorry for some audio issues due to wifi and mic. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We have a HUGE show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks is back to break down college football 2024! We will be streaming live on Thursday at 4PM Eastern and on Friday at 1PM Eastern. Please tune in! First, Kiev talks about the Circa this weekend. Next, Kiev talks some preseason football with a Free Play! Then, Kyle comes in and he gets right into his charity where he gives away free season win total winners for your donation to a good cause! Then, the guys get into some tempo changes for a bunch of teams in college football for 2024! Some are pretty drastic. After that, the guys get into some season win totals for 2024! Finally, the guys get into college football week 1! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
AFC South
2023 Records
Houston 10-7/ Jacksonville 9-8/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Tennessee 6-11
Houston Texans
Demeco Ryans led a huge turnaround last year in Houston. This year they hope to be a Super Bowl contender. C.J. Stroud proved he was the QB that should have gone #1 overall. He joined elite company in Joe Montana and Tom Brady as the only QBs in the last 50 years to lead the league in Passing yards per game and TD/INT ratio. He already had plenty of weapons, but picked up a few more in the off-season in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. I think Diggs is a locker room cancer, and it will only be a matter of time before he has issues in Houston as well. With Tank Dell and Nico Collins also in the mix and Dalton Schultz at TE this offense should be able to stretch the field once again in 2024. The OL was oft-injured in 2023 and if they stay any healthier should improve even with questions of who will start at the guard spots. This will be the unit that struggles the most for the offense.
The defense was gutted and overhauled a bit with 14 new faces signed on that side of the ball plus five players drafted. They used second and third round choices to solidify depth in the secondary. Second round pick Kamari Lassiter will compete with Jeff Okudah opposite stingy top corner Derek Stingley Jr. Up front they lose 3/4 of the DL with only Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. returning. They will need Denico Autry to repeat his performance from last season in Tennessee, but he is getting up there in years. They typically roll with only two linebackers on the field and I love the play of Christian Harris. Free agent Azeez Al-Shaair will be his likely partner who is familiar with Ryans’ defense from his time in San Francisco.
I like Demeco Ryans a bunch, and I think they can repeat in this division, but they have some tough obstalces ahead of them.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars faded down the stretch and are no longer the trendy team to take the next step having been passed over by Houston. They couldn’t run the ball at all in 2023 finishing 30th in rushing EPA. Travis Etienne is a solid three down performer, but needs some holes on the ground. The added veteran Mitch Morse to be their starting center, but the rest of the line is unchanged, and I don’t see drastic improvement here in pass or run blocking. That means Trevor Lawrence will need to be smarter when under duress and take care of the ball. He led the league in turnovers in 2023 with 21 total (14 picks, 7 fumbles) and has to be better. His offensive receiving core should be better this year with top draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. joining Christian Kirk and Even Engram. They also added former Buffalo WR Gabe Davis.
New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will look to improve upon a middling unit. Josh Allen and Travon Walker will be the keys to pressure again this season for the Jags after combining for 27.5 sacks in 2023. They signed Arik Armstead to anchor the DT spot and help their biggest weakness which was against the run. Devin Lloyd is stout at MLB, but the outsides will need to improve especially against the run. The secondary sees a big transition with Ronald Darby coming in to man one of the corner spots and Darnell Savage taking over at Free safety. They should be better than the group was in 2023. Overall, this group has potential to be Top 10 I think in 2024.
It wouldn’t shock me to see this team to make the playoffs or even win the division if Lawrence cuts down the turnovers.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced evenly at -115
Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrabel is gone and Brian Callahan is in. Derrick Henry is gone and Tony Pollard is in. I could just keep going like this. Lots of turnover in Tennessee this off-season. They have Will Levis entrenched as the starting QB and will get to find out if he is their guy this year with some more options surrounding him. They added Calvin Ridley to join DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. Then made another great move snagging Tyler Boyd who will line up in the slot and is familiar with Callahan’s system. The offensive line has been awful, but they took JC Latham seventh overall in the draft to be their franchise left tackle. They also got Center Lloyd Cushenberry to start at center. The biggest get however is all-world OL Coach Bill Callahan.
The defense was middle of the road across the board in 2023 finishing 14th in yards per game against the run, and 18th overall against the pass. What they didn’t do was take the ball away finishing 31st in the NFL in takeaways per game. They started by overhauling the secondary here trading for L’Jarius Sneed and signing Chidobe Awuzie. Up front is where I could see some issues with them losing Denico Autry. They did draft a big bad man in T’vondre Sweat to plug up the middle however. Linebacker took a step back losing Azeez Al-Shaair and replacing him with Kenneth Murray.
I think this team could surprise as they have done a decent quick rebuild around Will Levis. The querstion is will Will Levis turn out to be good? I am not buying it.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts basically did nothing in free agency in the off-season other than adding Backup extraordinaire Joe Flacco. So they have a solid option in place again this season when Anthony Richardson gets blown-up running the football. We will see if Shane Steichen continues to call designed runs for Richardson or if he plays it safer in his second year. A healthy Jonathan Taylor is a godsend to take some pressure off the QB, but they lose Zach Moss if he goes down again. They resigned Wr Michael Pittman and added Adonai Mitchell in the draft to complement him and Josh Downs. Also returning after missing all of last year is Tight End Jelani Woods. The OL has perennial All-Pros Quenton Nelson at Guard and Ryan Kelly at center. The questions are at tackle with both injury histories and skill problems especially at LT.
The biggest move on defense was resigning leader Zaire Franklin at MLB. On the DL they brought back Julian Blackmon, signed tackle Raekwon Davis, and drafted DE Laiatu Latu in the first round. It should be a better group than 2023. The secondary however is going to be the downfall of the Colts this year I believe. Not upgrading this group was a mistake and is going to cost them. Safety Julian Blackmon is the only above average player in the back-end and they will continue to give up too many big plays.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
2024 AFC South Predictions:
Houston Texans 10-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8
Tennessee Titans 6-11
Indianapolis Colts 5-12
AFC South Action:
This division gets the NFC North and AFC East which is really a rough pair of divisions to face.
Houston Texans – No Action. Besides those tough pair of divisions the Texans also have @DAL, @KC and vsBAL on the schedule. I think they still win the division, but I can’t play anything here as they could just as easily go 6-11 as 11-6 with the teams they’re facing.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville to win division +250, 1 Unit. I don’t trust Lawrence, but this team was only 1 game out last year even with all the mistakes, and again look at Houston’s schedule. +250 is way too much here and I’m taking it.
Tennessee Titans- No Action. If Levis is really bad this likely goes under, but I am staying away.
Indianapolis Colts – Under 8.5 +115, 2 Units. Well folks, I don’t like Richardson. I don’t like that they did nothing to upgrade their team. I don’t like that their Pythagorean Wins was over a full win lower than what they got last year. And finally I don’t like how their schedule starts off. It’s possible they’ll have given up by the midpoint of the season. VsHOU, @GB, vsCHI, vsPIT, @JAX, @TEN, vsMIA, @HOU, @MIN, vsBUF, @NYJ, vsDET. After that it gets easier, but are they going to have 5 wins in their first 12 games? I doubt it. Even if they do, they would need to go 4-1 down the stretch to hit this over. I am all out on the Colts this season.
