The AFC South – This may have been the most interesting division in football from 2023. The Texans go from worst to first while the Jaguars fumbled their way out of the playoffs. The Titans were just flat out bad while the Colts had a very promising year even after their stud quarterback Anthony Richardson got hurt. One thing to note is that the top three teams here all over-achieved from an expected win total. This year, there is certainly a lot of speculation in the direction of these teams as there is a lot of love for the Texans and Colts, and almost no love for the Titans and Jaguars. The AFC South plays the NFC North and the AFC East for at large scheduling. This is quite rough as there are only two teams that have win totals under 8.5 from both divisions. The AFC South used to be the worst in football. Not anymore. Let’s see how this division is worthy this year as one of the better ones in football.
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ Dallas, @ Kansas City, vs Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: DE Jonathan Greenard, DT Sheldon Rankings, LB Blake Cashman, RB Devin Singletary, T George Fant, P Cameron Johnson, ILB Denzel Perryman, G Michael Dieter, DE Jerry Hughes, CB Steven Nelson, DT Hassan Ridgeway.
Key additions: WR Stephan Diggs, RB Joe Mixon, OLB Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DE Denico Autry, P Tommy Townsend, DT Tim Settle, DE Foley Fatuaski, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Michael Ford.
Key Draft Picks: CB Kamari Lassiter, T Blake Fisher, S Calen Bullock, TE Cade Stover
Summary: The Houston Texans are all in for 2024. What a great move last year drafting the top quarterback and the top edge rusher in this draft. Going from worst to first in this division was nice, and now DeMeco Ryans (whome I think was snubbed for coach of the year), has his work cut out for him. The unique thing about the NFL is that they always try to equalize the teams on a year to year basis. The Texans now will go from having one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, to a first place schedule that is pretty darn hard. They opened the check book this year to sign some big names, but I really do not like the Stephan Diggs move. Diggs is not a good locker room guy and he is expensive. Houston got by last year based on clutch QB play from C.J. Stroud, and great defense ranking 6th in rush EPA. Where the Texan’s were not quite as good was against the pass ranking 19th in drop-back EPA. They also struggled to run the ball well on offense ranking 26th in rush EPA. The Texans over-achieved some last year, and should have only won 8.6 games according to Pythagorean standards. I think that this team will continue to be good against the run, but I am not so sure about against the pass. My biggest concern is for the offensive line. Joe Mixon has been added to the run game while Devin Singletary gets cut. Will this be enough? I am not sure. If I had to pick a player/coach that might be the biggest candidates for a Sophomore slump, it would be CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. With the tough schedule, I am going 8.7 wins and I’ll take an under 10 when one pops.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean Under
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.75
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 8.5
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.84
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Cleveland, @ Philadelphia, @ LA Raiders
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Calvin Ridley, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DE Foley Fatukasi, K Brandon McManus, OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, WR Zay Jones
Key additions: DE Arik Armstead, WR Gabriel Davis, S Darnell Savage, C Mitch Morse, WR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby
Key Draft Picks: WR Brian Thomas Jr., DL Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, T Javon Foster, DL Jordan Jefferson and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: 2023 was a very strange year for the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence. I watched this team make mistake, after mistake, and I just could not understand it. At the end of the season, I thought to myself that Trevor’s mind ain’t right and maybe he needs a sports psychologist. Was it the pressure that got to him? He is supposed to be a franchise guy, but now I am just not quite so sure. The 55 million dollar per year contract with 200M guaranteed says he is anyways. I guess it wasn’t all that bad if you look at the numbers. The Jaguars were 14th in drop-back EPA and Lawrence was 17th in QBR. The biggest issue was running the ball ranking 30th in rush EPA. Turnovers hurt as well finishing at -3 in turnover margin for the season. On defense, this team was just very average ranking 13th in EPA per play. The schedule eases up maybe just a little this year going from a first place situation to a second. The Jaguars are a net positive this year in rest days at +4, but the bad side is that two home games vs the Bears and the Patriots are overseas in London. They are used to London, but still, there will be fans from both teams. What I do like is some of their free agency moves. The Jags shed some WRs that were not producing to then draft a good one in the first round in Brian Thomas. This team really seamed to like LSU guys as they also drafted two LSU defensive lineman. Like the Texans, I am concerned for the Jaguars offensive line. Mike Clay put out his rankings and he has the Texans at 29th and the Jaguars at 28th. Not good. I think that this team has a shot at making the playoffs, but I also think that they might want to win their division back. I could see a small bet on one of those outcomes.
My Number: 9.67
Action – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +130 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – 1.75
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -125
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.89
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zach Moss
Key additions: DT Raekwon Davis, QB Joe Flacco
Whom they drafted: Edge Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, T Matt Goncalves, C Tanor Bortolini, WR Anthony Gould
Summary: The Colts must really really like their team being that they signed all of their free agents and didn’t spend much time shopping. I will say that Shane Steichen did an tremendous job with what he had. This team manufactured nine wins while only getting 3.5 games from their top draft pick in Anthony Richardson. Now I will say that the jury is still out on this young quarterback. We do not know if he will really pan out in the NFL, and having Gardner Minshew as the backup wasn’t all that bad. This team was one win away from making the playoffs, and Minshew heled this team win 6 of their last 9 games. Now Minshew is gone and Flacco takes the backup reigns. It is hard for me to really gauge what this Colts team really is with Anthony Richardson. On offense they had average numbers ranking 17th in EPA. On defense, the Colts were pretty close to average at 19th in EPA. They over-achieved some last year winning nine games when their Pythagorean win total was 7.89. I can only say that this team should be around average for the start of the 2024 season. Maybe Richardson proves that he is a franchise guy this year, but I am not holding my breath.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -1
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 7
Schedule: Hard – At large games @ LA Chargers, @ Washington, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Mike Vrable, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Bunting, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denico Autry, RB Derick Henry, CB Kristian Fulton, QB Ryan Tannehill
Key additions: Coach Brian Callahan, OC Nick Holz, DC Dennard Wilson, WR Calvin Ridley, C Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Chidobe Awuzie, RB Tony Pollard, LB Kenneth Murray, DT Sebastian Joseph, K Nick Folk, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Tyler Boyd
Summary: The Tennessee Titans have definitely experienced the most change in this division. Out goes Mike Vrable, and in comes Brian Callahan. Gonna be up front here and say that I do not like this change. Vrable had gotten a lot out of a team that was cursed with some very bad general management. I also am not to keen on Brian Callahan as he comes from the Zac Taylor tree in Cincinnati. I have always thought that Cincinnati could have been better had they had good coaching and coordinators. I am also not too sure of Dennard Wilson as a defensive coordinator. He was most recently under the Ravens and before that the Eagles, so he does have some good accolades, but that doesn’t mean he can run the show. Titans running back Derrick Henry has finally left the franchise who was a staple on this team. Will Levis will be the week one starter as expected, but I am not so sure that he can have that much success as he wasn’t all that successful in college at Kentucky. Levis has a powerful arm, but he isn’t all that accurate. I think that there is a pretty solid chance that Mason Rudolph ends up taking the reigns come mid season. The wide receiver crew is led by some aging veterans like DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. Tyler Boyd decided to join the team as well as he completes the geriatric trifecta. The Titans had a pretty rough defense last year ranking 28th in EPA, while the offense was close to average. Even though the Titans couldn’t win a lot of games, they did at least have an expected win total of seven. I personally think that the Titans could have a rough year if things do not all their way. Gonna agree some with the market here.
My Number: 5.75
Action: Lean under
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -4
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Best Bet: Jacksonville to make the playoffs +130 – .5 stars
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is on vacation and is going solo to preview the AFC South division from a sports betting and a win total perspective! We have some info on key losses and key pickups from each division. A FREE PLAY is also warranted on a team that should have been better as of last year. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY MLB BASEBALL PACKAGE or 50% OFF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 30th 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise. Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
Baseball season continues chugging along and with the NBA coming to a close, hockey one game away potentially from being done and two months until football season it is really time to go deep on baseball.
My Analysis today turns to Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL where the Chicago Cubs (34-39) will host the San Francisco Giants (36-37) at 8:05 ET. The current line sits with both teams at -110 with an Over/Under of 9.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 83 degrees under mostly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out hard to left center at roughly 15mph.
The Cubs have really struggled lately after peaking at 17-9 in late April. Currently they are riding a rough stretch of 10-22 their last 32 contests. They are really being let down by their bullpen who is now carrying a 4.49 ERA and is the 2nd worst in the majors since May 1st.
The Cubs will trot out Justin Steele Tuesday night. Steele has been solid, but not spectacular and has been let down by the bullpen a handful of times as well. This will be his tenth start on the season and he is still looking for his first win. He owns a 3.22 ERA and a 3.72 xFIP. The difference is being driven by his luck in the BABIP department with opponents only putting up a .257 mark against him. He has an 8.58 K/9 with a 2.32 BB/9 for a solid ratio. He has thrown four very good outings in a row only allowing two earned runs in his last 25 innings to go along with twenty five strikeouts and seven walks over those four starts.
The Giants are plodding along kind of as expected with a near .500 record. What hasn’t been as predicted is the offense is actually in the upper half of the league rankings, while the pitching staff has really struggled. I thought the strengths would be the other way around. Blake Snell having issues along with the bullpen (4.32 ERA) are the main drivers of the pitching issue, but the young hitters have performed above expectations.
Logan Webb will get the ball for the Giants tonight in Wrigley. Webb has been very good this season as per usual, with a 6-5 record and a 3.02 ERA, which looks to be right on with his 3.07 xFIP. The ratios are solid with 7.6 K/9 and 1.95 BB/9. He hasn’t gone less than six innings in his last seven outings and has struck out at least five batters in each of those games.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? Well the weather is certainly a part of my decision. When the temps/dewpoints are high and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley it really is a different game being played. What is normally a 330 foot fly ball to left center is going to be onto Waveland Avenue this evening.
The key metrics when it comes to my play is two-fold. First let’s look at the offenses. Versus right-handed pitchers, the Cubs are 25th in MLB with a .671 OPS. Against left-handed pitchers the Giants are 5th in MLB with a .767 OPS. That’s over a 100 points difference for the start of this match-up. Secondly, when the ball is flying out of the ball park it is always a good idea to check out the pitchers Home Runs allowed tendencies. Steele sits at 1.07 HR/9, while Webb comes in at 0.39 HR/9. These metrics are driven by their abilities to force hitters into ground balls. Steele only has a 42.6% GB rate, while he also owns an inflated 38.3% FB rate. Webb on the other hand is at 56.3% GB Rate vs only a 20.9% Fly Ball rate. This major difference is where I have to make my play.
Taking these key stats into the equation I have my internal number at -130 for the Giants so I am playing them at the -110 on the board. I will also sprinkle a little on the Giants F5 -.5 for +125. If you want to take the bullpens out of the equation and just play the Giants F5 at -125 I don’t hate that route, but it isn’t very far off where a value it.
Bryson DeChambeau wins the U.S. Open at 20-1! Alongside hitting the outright winner, we also cashed three of our four placement bets: Hideki Matsuyama T20 (+160), Si Woo Kim T40 (+115), and Aaron Rai T40 (+150).
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Signature Event
The Travelers Championship marks the final Signature Event of the season.
Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley aims to become the first golfer to win back-to-back at the Travelers Championship since Phil Mickelson in 2001-02. Last year, Bradley set the tournament scoring record at 23-under. This season, he has finished runner-up twice: first at the Sony Open in Hawaii, where he lost in a playoff to Grayson Murray, and more recently at the Charles Schwab Challenge, finishing five strokes behind Davis Riley.
Xander Schauffele
2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele returns to action at the Travelers Championship. Schauffele, the 2022 champion at TPC River Highlands, has 11 top-10 finishes in 15 events this season, including four consecutive top-10s, showcasing a tremendously complete campaign in 2024.
Scottie Scheffler
World No. 1 and FedExCup leader Scottie Scheffler looks to bounce back after his performance at the U.S. Open. Following a closing 74 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday and rounds of 71-74-71-72 at the U.S. Open, it marked Scheffler’s first time shooting five straight over-par rounds. However, with five victories this season and a T4 finish at the Travelers last year, Scheffler remains a top contender.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen will make his professional debut at the Travelers Championship. Finishing No. 1 in the PGA TOUR University ranking in May, Thorbjornsen earned PGA TOUR membership for the remainder of the 2024 and 2025 seasons. During his four seasons at Stanford, he earned three victories and climbed to No. 2 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking. Thorbjornsen finished solo fourth at the Travelers Championship in 2022, marking the first top-five by an amateur on the PGA TOUR since 2017.
TPC River Highlands was founded in 1928 and was known back then as Middletown Golf Club. Just six years later, the course underwent another name change to Edgewood Country Club. In the early 1980’s the club was purchased by the PGA Tour and underwent a renovation that redesigned the course to TPC standards. With the renovation came another name change and in 1984, the club became known was TPC of Connecticut. Five years later, the course would undergo another renovation and became known as TPC River Highlands.
The tournament was founded in 1952 as the Insurance City Open. It was initiated by the Greater Hartford Community Foundation and held at Wethersfield Country Club in Wethersfield, Connecticut. The first champion was Ted Kroll, who won with a score of 14-under-par.
Since 1984, TPC River Highlands has been the host course for the Travelers Championship. Just like the course itself, the tournament has underwent several name changes as well including the Buick Championship and Greater Hartford Open.
During the practice round at Tuesday, PGA TOUR professionals and caddies are given a chance to hit at the famous Travelers floating umbrella. The hole is known as The Umbrella at 15 1/2, which is located between 15th and 16th holes at TPC River Highlands. The hole is 85 yards long and the target is a 40-foot umbrella. The players are given one attempt at the umbrella, with the closest to the pin winner receiving $10,000 to the charity of their choice.
In 2023, Lee Hodges won The Umbrella at 15 1/2 Challenge with a shot that finished 11 1/2 inches from the pin at the floating red green. Since 2010, the winner of this Challenge has yet to win the tournament in the same year.
Most Tournament Wins:
4, Billy Casper: 1963, 1965, 1968, 1973
72-Hole Record (Event):
257, Keegan Bradley (2023)
18-Hole Record (Event):
58, Jim Furyk (fourth round, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Pete Dye in 1982, TPC River Highlands features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
In terms of length, TPC River Highlands is one of the shorter courses on the Tour measuring 6,835 yards.It ranks 3rd out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 12th of 44, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers aren’t a factor here as there are only 69 which ranks as the 18th fewest of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 158 yards and 223 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards. Last year, two of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par, No. 3 (+0.09) and No. 16 (+0.025).
No. 5, 223 Yards, Par 3: A challenging par 3 with a long carry over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. The green slopes from back to front.
No. 8, 202 Yards, Par 3: A picturesque par 3 with a pond in front and bunkers surrounding the green. Club selection is crucial due to the prevailing wind.
No. 11, 158 Yards, Par 3: A short par 3 over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. Accuracy is essential.
No. 16, 171 Yards, Par 3: This scenic 171-yard, par 3 requires a well struck mid iron to clear the forced carry over water and stop the ball on the narrow green. The green has a lot of slope in it and pin locations can be difficult. The wind can play a significant role in club selection.
There are twelve Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands with the majority (seven) of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards.No. 15 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 296 yards with the longest being No. 4, playing 481 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 4 (+0.081).
No. 15, 296 Yards, Par 4: A drivable par 4 with a risk-reward element. One of the most exciting holes on the PGA TOUR, the 296-yard, par 4, hole No. 15 at TPC River Highlands forces players to make good decisions. There is water to the left and sand to the right. Anywhere from a 2 to 6 can be recorded on a player’s scorecard when walking off this green.
No. 17, 431 Yards, Par 4: Intimidation takes on a new meaning when standing on the tee box at No. 17. Players must fit their shot between the large lake that covers the entire right side and the difficult fairway bunker on the left. A good drive is just the first part to leaving this hole with a par. The approach shot will need to carry the water the entire way, and with any wind, club selection is of most importance. Crowds are huge on this hole because they know it can be the breaking point in the tournament.
No. 18, 444 Yards, Par 4: An absolute perfect finishing hole that allows players to make birdie if they play this par 4 well. At 444 yards, a good drive leaves a mid to short iron approach to a green encompassed by a throng of spectators.
There are only two Par 5’s at TPC River Highlands, No. 6 & No. 13. They both played under par in 2023, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 6 with a scoring average of 4.548.
No. 6, 574 Yards, Par 5: The first par 5 on the course features a wide fairway but narrows near the green, which is reachable in two for long hitters. Water and bunkers protect the green.
No. 13, 523 Yards, Par 5: A reachable par 5 for long hitters. The fairway narrows near the green, which is guarded by bunkers and a steep slope at the back.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15-18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC River Highlands
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.67
280.28
Driving Accuracy
62%
68%
GIR Percentage
66%
68%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
28.00
Scrambling Percentage
58%
58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.49
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC River Highlands.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ludvig Aberg
Jordan Spieth
Collin Morikawa
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Sungjae Im
Viktor Hovland
Kurt Kitayama
Adam Scott
Stephan Jaeger
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at TPC River Highlands.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Corey Conners
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Russell Henley
Ludvig Aberg
Viktor Hovland
Si Woo Kim
Sahith Theegala
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The average green size at TPC River Highlands is 5,000 sq. ft. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Webb Simpson
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Max Homa
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Denny McCarthy
J.T. Poston
Driving Accuracy
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sepp Straka
Collin Morikawa
Tommy Fleetwood
Lucas Glover
Russell Henley
Si Woo Kim
Shane Lowry
J.T. Poston
Scottie Scheffler
Austin Eckroat
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass & Poa Annua)
The green complexes at TPC River Highlands are Bentgrass / Poa annua .115”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
J.T. Poston
Matt Fitzpatrick
Justin Rose
Ludvig Aberg
Wyndham Clark
Xander Schauffele
Brendon Todd
Peter Malnati
Sam Burns
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC River Highlands range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Adam Schenk
Taylor Pendrith
Emiliano Grillo
Sungjae Im
Tom Kim
Akshay Bhatia
Ludvig Aberg
Russell Henley
Sahith Theegala
Mattieu Pavon
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x7)
Seven of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Sepp Straka
Andrew Putnam
Brian Harman
Ludvig Aberg
Corey Conners
Adam Scott
Russell Henley
Tom Kim
Birdies or Better Gained
Historically at TPC River Highlands the winning score has been -17 or better in five of the last six editions. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Ludvig Aberg
Tony Finau
Ben Griffin
Tom Kim
Taylor Pendrith
Xander Schauffele
Viktor Hovland
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Shane Lowry
Tom Hoge
Tom Kim
Russell Henley
Lucas Glover
Eric Cole
Jake Knapp
J.T. Poston
Cameron Young
Scottie Scheffler
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Kurt Kitayama
Adam Schenk
Scottie Scheffler
Denny McCarthy
Seamus Power
Sepp Straka
Will Zalatoris
Corey Conners
Tony Finau
Ludvig Aberg
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the TPC River Highlands has proven to be advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Sahith Theegala
Corey Conners
Patrick Cantlay
Adam Scott
Russell Henley
Viktor Hovland
Austin Eckroat
Michael Thorbjornsen
The Field:
This year’s Travelers Championship will feature a total of 72 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 50 in the FedExCup Standings
Aon Next 10
Aon Swing 5
Current Year Tournament Winners
Sponsor Exemptions
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Keegan Bradley (’23), Xander Schauffele (’22), Harris English (’21), Jordan Spieth (’17)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Robert MacIntyre, Victor Perez, Will Zalatoris
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Scottie Scheffler (+360)
Despite coming off his worst finish of the season (T41) at the U.S. Open, Scottie Scheffler has won five of his last nine starts. This will be his fifth appearance at TPC River Highlands, with his best finish coming last season when he placed T4.
Xander Schauffele (+750)
Xander Schauffele, who won this event in 2022, has finished inside the top 20 in four of his five prior appearances at this tournament. He has not finished outside the top 10 in his last four starts, which includes a victory at the PGA Championship.
Collin Morikawa (+1200)
Collin Morikawa has been in excellent form recently, finishing inside the top 20 in seven of his last eight events. Narrowing it down, he has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. He has played in this event three times before, missing the cut twice (2023 & 2020) and finishing T36 in 2019.
Ludvig Aberg (+1400)
Ludvig Aberg has finished runner-up several times this season but has yet to capture his first win. He has been in great form, finishing T5 at the Memorial Tournament and T12 at the U.S. Open in his last two starts. Aberg played in this event once before, finishing T24 last season.
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Viktor Hovland missed the cut at the U.S. Open last week but had finished inside the top 25 in each of his three prior starts. This will be his fourth time competing in the Travelers Championship, with his best finish coming in 2020 when he placed T11.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score has been below 281.5 in three of the last four editions of the Travelers Championship. The lone outlier during that span was in 2021 when Harris English won with a score of 267. However, it should be noted that in 2021 the wind played a major factor which is something we shouldn’t see this week. Last year, Keegan Bradley set the 72-Hole Course Record (257, -23).
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be a Playoff? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Since 2013, the Travelers Championship has ended in a playoff four times. The most recent playoff happened in 2021 when Harris English defeated Kramer Hickok.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +100 / No -130)
In 2023, there was one hole-in-one which Rory McIlroy made on No. 8.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Facts and Figures:
Six of the last seven winners posted a T10 finish or better in one of their previous five starts before winning at TPC River Highlands.
Nine of the last 10 winners of this event had posted at least a T31 at TPC River Highlands prior to winning. (Credit Geoff Ulrich)
Recent Horses for Courses (Event):
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Xander Schauffele
5
67.11
T19
WON
–
T20
–
Rory McIlroy
5
67.15
T7
T19
–
T11
–
Patrick Cantlay
9
67.63
T4
T13
T13
T11
T15
Adam Scott
3
67.80
T19
–
T13
–
–
Brian Harman
13
68.10
T2
T8
T5
MC
T8
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2
71.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Adam Schenk
6
69.83
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Max Homa
5
69.60
MC
–
MC
MC
MC
Nick Taylor
7
71.00
–
–
MC
–
MDF
Billy Horschel
6
69.44
MC
–
–
MC
–
Patrick Rodgers
9
69.03
MC
–
T76
MC
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Keegan Bradley (-23)
Price:80-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Keegan Bradley
38th
7th
1st
33rd
1st
2022: Xander Schauffele (-19)
Price: 20-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Xander Schauffele
15th
8th
5th
47th
4th
2021: Harris English (-13)
Price: 45-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Harris English
9th
3rd
32nd
8th
18th
2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
Price: 30-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Dustin Johnson
46th
6th
6th
25th
4th
2019: Chez Reavie (-17)
Price: 70-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Chez Reavie
10th
1st
1st
24th
10th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Keegan Bradley
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T30 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T29 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T35 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T48 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2022: Xander Schauffele
T14 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
WON – Zurich Classic (PGA)
2021: Harris English
3 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T14 – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
T64 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T13 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
T43 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2020: Dustin Johnson
T17 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T48 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
T10 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
2019: Chez Reavie
T3 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T14 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T18 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T18 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Keegan Bradley
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Keegan Bradley
MC
MC
T2
T47
T8
T25
T39
T31
T18
T29
T63
2022: Xander Schauffele
2020
2018
2017
Xander Schauffele
T20
MC
T14
2021: Harris English
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
2013
2012
Harris English
MDF
MC
MC
T25
T7
T43
T64
2020: Dustin Johnson
2014
2009
2008
Dustin Johnson
T31
WD
T34
2019: Chez Reavie
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
2012
2009
2008
Chez Reavie
MC
T43
T47
T25
T43
T11
T68
MC
Picks (Outrights):
Ludvig Aberg (+1400) – BetMGM
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Ludvig has yet to secure a win this season despite several close calls, including runner-up finishes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Masters. He comes into this week in excellent form, having finished T5 at the Memorial Tournament and T12 at the U.S. Open last week. Ludvig led the U.S. Open after 36 holes but struggled with back-to-back 73s in the final two rounds.
He has played this event once before, finishing T24, where he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. His downfall was his approach play, where he ranked 61st in the field in strokes gained. However, his iron play has been much more consistent this season, gaining strokes in that category in every start except one.
In his past 24 rounds, Aberg ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa). He also excels in approach shots from 125-175 yards and ranks 6th in Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards.
Despite turning pro just a year ago, Ludvig has quickly established himself as one of the premier players on the PGA Tour. His overall game is in great form, and his accuracy off the tee has improved significantly this year. TPC River Highlands isn’t a long course, allowing him to club down on several Par 4s, yet still be aggressive given his distance. He won his first event at the RSM Classic last season with a winning score of -29, proving he can go low on these shorter courses.
Sahith Theegala (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Sahith Theegala has come close to securing his second career PGA Tour victory multiple times this season, with runner-up finishes at The Sentry and RBC Heritage. He enters this week in decent form, having finished T12 at the Memorial Tournament and T32 at the U.S. Open last week.
This will be Sahith’s fourth appearance at TPC River Highlands, with his best finish coming in 2022 when he finished T2. He had an opportunity to win that event, holding a one-shot lead heading into the final hole before making a double bogey.
In his past 24 rounds, Theegala ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa). He also excels in Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards and Birdies or Better Gained.
Theegala has demonstrated he can play well on this course, and given his current form, particularly his ball striking, he is well-positioned for an impressive finish this week.
Corey Conners (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Corey Conners enters this week in impressive form, having finished 6th at the RBC Canadian Open, T20 at the Memorial Tournament, and T9 at the U.S. Open in his last three starts. While he has struggled with his putting this season, he has turned things around recently, gaining strokes on the greens in two of his last three events.
This will be Conners’ fourth appearance at TPC River Highlands. He struggled in his first two starts at the Travelers Championship, missing the cut in both 2018 and 2020. However, in his most recent appearance in 2023, he performed much better, finishing T9.
In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach. He also excels in proximity from 125-175 yards, Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards, and Birdies or Better Gained.
Although he isn’t the longest hitter off the tee, his accuracy is more advantageous than distance at this venue. His ball-striking ability should set him up nicely given the small greens. While his putting has been an issue in the past, his recent improvement in this area is promising. If Conners can gain strokes on the green at Pinehurst, he should be able to do so at TPC River Highlands. Given his current form and last year’s performance, when he finished T9 despite entering in worse shape, there is high hope for him to build on that success this week.
Tom Kim (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Tom Kim has faced challenges for the majority of the 2024 season, yet signs of a turnaround have emerged with an impressive performance in the PGA Championship, finishing T26. Subsequently, he secured commendable finishes, placing T24 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T4 at the RBC Canadian Open, and T26 at the U.S. Open last week.
Making his tournament debut last year, Kim finished T38. While his ball striking showcased excellence, he grappled with his play on and around the greens. However, recent outings indicate an improvement in his short game, with strokes gained in four of his last six starts. Additionally, he has shown proficiency in putting, gaining strokes in five of his last eight starts.
Over his past 24 rounds, Kim ranks 19th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 26th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. He excels in proximity from 125-175 yards, Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards, and Birdies or Better Gained.
Although not the longest hitter off the tee, Kim’s accuracy holds an advantage over distance at this venue. His ball-striking prowess should position him well, particularly considering the small greens. While past putting woes exist, recent improvements offer promise. Notably, his wins on the PGA Tour have occurred at TPC Summerlin (twice) and Sedgefield Country Club, akin to shorter courses like TPC River Highlands.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Patrick Cantlay (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Patrick Cantlay is coming off an impressive T3 finish at the U.S. Open, where he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 24th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Cantlay has a stellar track record at TPC River Highlands, securing top-15 finishes in each of his last six trips to Cromwell, Connecticut. Last season, he finished T4 at the Travelers Championship, four strokes behind Keegan Bradley.
Given his strong performance last week at Pinehurst and his consistent success on this course, I expect Cantlay to build on his top-5 finish.
Brian Harman (+250) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.50 Units
Brian Harman has yet to secure a win since capturing his first Major Championship at Royal Liverpool last year. This season, he started strong with top-20 finishes in his first two events. Though he hit a rough patch afterward, he regained form with impressive performances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Since then, his results have been mixed, but he’s trending upward, finishing T21 at the U.S. Open last week.
Harman has an excellent track record at TPC River Highlands, with top-10 finishes in five of his last six trips to Cromwell, Connecticut. Last season, he finished T2 at the Travelers Championship, three strokes behind Keegan Bradley.
In his past 24 rounds, Harman ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 25th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 26th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa). He excels in approach shots from 125-175 yards and ranks 5th in Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards over the same period.
Although he isn’t the longest hitter off the tee, TPC River Highlands suits his game well. Given his past success at this course and his current form, Harman is well-positioned for a top-10 finish this week.
Total Risk on Top 10s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Keegan Bradley (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Keegan Bradley has finished runner-up twice this season. He first came close at the Sony Open in Hawaii, where he lost in a playoff to Grayson Murray, and more recently at the Charles Schwab Challenge, finishing five strokes behind Davis Riley. In his last two starts, Bradley finished T43 at the Memorial Tournament and T32 at the U.S. Open. Despite this recent form, it’s worth noting that he won this event last season after entering in worse shape, so his current play shouldn’t be a major concern.
In addition to last season’s victory, Bradley has four other top-20 finishes at TPC River Highlands.
Over his past 24 rounds, Bradley ranks 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), and 16th in Birdies or Better Gained. He also excels in proximity from 125-175 yards and in Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Unit
Picks (First Round Props):
Scottie Scheffler 1st Round Top 5 Finish (+200)/ Top 10 Finish (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 0.50 to win 1.00 Units / Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
I have yet to back Scottie Scheffler this year, so this will be my first time doing so in any capacity. Scheffler is coming off his worst performance of the season, finishing T41 at the U.S. Open. He barely made the cut and wasn’t too fond of the overall course setup, particularly the waste areas.
Scheffler played in this event last year and finished T4. After the first round, he was at -7 (T4), just three shots off the leader, Denny McCarthy, who was at -10. This season, Scheffler ranks 1st in Round 1 Scoring Average, and given his ability to excel on this course, I am confident he can match or even exceed that number. Additionally, with a reduced field this year, it’s less likely that lower-tier players will shoot an incredible round before fading in the subsequent rounds.
Looking back at last season, Scheffler has shown a remarkable ability to rebound from poor performances. After finishing T45 at the CJ CUP, he finished T3 at the World Wide Technology Championship, where he was just three shots off the lead after the opening round (T7). Following a T31 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he finished T2 at the BMW Championship, where he was just one shot off the lead after the opening round (T3).
Given his track record of bouncing back, I have no doubt that Scheffler will rebound strongly in this week’s event.
Total Risk on First Round Props: 1.50 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
The AFC North was as predicted in 2023, the best division in football. That is even with the injury to smoking Joe Burrow. The Ravens finished number 1 in my power ratings, the Browns had the best defense in the league, while the Steelers were respectable even without a franchise quarterback. I think that this division as whole is the most intriguing in the whole NFL. There are some scheduling quirks that will definitely benefit some of the teams, while the comeback player of the year isn’t even on the team that he finished with in 2023. Non-smoking Joe Flacco came in and lifted the Brownies to the playoffs. How many playoff teams could we get from this division? Some think three. The AFC North plays the AFC West and the NFC East this year. I think that schedule turned out well for some of these teams as both divisions have two weak teams at the bottom. Let’s dive into these teams.
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Buffalo, @ Tampa Bay, @ Houston
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DC Michael McDonald, ILB Patrick Queen, DE Jadeveon Clowney, S Geno Stone, G John Simpson, WR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby, RB Gus Edwards, G Kevin Zietler, LB Del’Shawn Phillips, RB JK Dobbins, QB Tyler Huntley, CB Rock Ya-Sin, OLB Tyus Bowser
Key additions: RB Derek Henry, T Josh Jones
Key Draft Picks: CB Nate Wiggens, T Roger Rosengarten, Edge Adisa Isaac
Summary: The Ravens may have finished as the top team in my power ratings, but if I could bet a total on the number of super bowl wins that this team will have in the next five years, I would take the under .5. In saying that, I think that the dirty birds win at least 11 games during the regular season. There is a difference between clutch performance during the regular season and in the playoffs. Lamar doesn’t have what it takes to get to or win a super bowl thus far. The Ravens really didn’t gain much in the offseason being that they had to pay Lamar a boatload of cash. Derek Henry probably has some gas left in his tank, but can he last a full season of hits in an offense that habitually injures their running backs? I do not think so. What I will say is that even though this team shed some dudes in the offseason, I really do not see them taking a huge step back. Many guys like Patrick Queen and JK Dobbins were injured most of the year anyways. The Ravens have the best linebacker in the league in Roquan Smith, and they should be able to pick right up where they left off dominating the league. Last year, the black birds ranked 2nd in defensive EPA and 6th in offensive EPA. The interesting thing about the Ravens schedule is that they get the highest net rest days in the league in +16. Just due to this, they go from a hard schedule just to a medium hard schedule. If Lamar stays healthy, this team might once again clinch the regular season title. The Ravens are my top team in my power ratings to start the season.
My Number: 11.76
Action – Over 10.5 -135 – .5 stars
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7.5
2. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -135
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.93
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Jacksonville, @ New Orleans, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Jordan Elliott, LB Sione Takitaki, CB Michael Ford, QB Joe Flacco, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris
Key additions: ILB Jordan Hicks, QB Jameis Winston, DT Quinton Jefferson, ILB Devin Bush
Key Draft Picks: DL Michael Hall Jr, G Zak Zinter and a bunch of meh
Summary: Dear Joe Flacco, thanks for helping us to 11 wins and a playoff birth last year in a really hard division. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Isn’t that really what it is though? I could think that Browns GM Andrew Berry is wishing that players were paid on commission. On a side not, I wouldn’t mind having a discussion with somebody about that. Either way, this team is married to De’Shawn Watson, and I really do not know what he is after missing so much football over the last three years. We also can’t forget that stud RB Nick Chubb was injured for most of the 2023 season. Let’s look at the reality of the situation for 2023. Even though Joe Flacco is gone, could this offense be any worse than last year ranking 28th in overall EPA per play? They ranked 21st in rush EPA and 28th in Drop-back EPA. The truth is that Joe Flacco came in when the Browns had the easier part of their schedule vs the Jags, the Bears, the Jets and an injured Texans team. If DeShawn Watson could be just average, this team could put up some points. The Browns defense was amazing ranking number one in overall EPA. If that happens again, this team should coast into the playoffs. I am not a big believer in Kevin Stefanski, but the Browns certainly see something in him giving him a four year extension in the offseason. I also do not like the fact that the Browns did not have a good draft. In saying all of that, I am somewhat bullish on this team due to the number 1 defense, but I will also tread carefully being that the Browns may be erratic during the season.
My Number: 9.47
Action:Lean over
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: 3
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.44
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Carolina, @ Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: OC Brian Callahan, CB Chidobe Awuzie, T Jonah Williams, DT DJ Reader, WR Tyler Boyd, S Nick Scott, RB Joe Mixon
Key Draft Picks: T Amarius Mims, DL Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, DL McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All
Summary: Smoking Joe Burrow was much less smoking and a lot more freezing last year. Of course we can say that he was injured, but his team kind s of stunk before his injury even happened ranking 20th in QBR. There wasn’t a lot of movement in the offseason, yet we know that stud wide receiver Tee Higgens isn’t too happy, and I could see him on the move at some point this year. What really failed this Bengals team was their defense ranking 27th in EPA. I know that the division was hard, but having to rely on a quarterback isn’t the most exciting thing to do. What I do like is the Bengals draft picks this year. They replaced tackle Jonah Williams with Amarius Mims and may have gotten the best defensive lineman in the pool in Kris Jenkins. The defense still needs some love as the Bengals were not able to sign many players due to a smoking contract for Joe Burrow. It actually gets worse next year. The Bengals offense came alive a few games after Joe got injured due to some solid play by Jake Browning. They also had some nice fumble luck netting a +7 in that department. The Joe Mixon loss is head scratching to me as he was a much bigger part of the offense as the common man might believe. The Bengals didn’t do enough in this offseason to improve their defense. Losing offensive coordinator Brian Callahan doesn’t hurt my feelings, as I thought that he wasn’t as good as his quarterbacks have played for him, but that doesn’t mean that newly promoted OC Dan Pitcher isn’t much of the same. I hate to say it, but I am not high on this team for 2024 and I think that Zac Taylor will be taking the heat and may be on the chopping block in 2025.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Bet the under 10.5 +120 – 1 star
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 0
4. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -165
2023 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 7.17
Schedule: Very Hard – At large @ Atlanta, @ Indianapolis, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: QB Mitch Trubisky, QB Mason Rudolph, QB Kenny Pickett, T Chukwuma Okorafor, DT Armon Watts, CB Levi Wallace, CB Patrick Peterson, C Mason Cole, SS Keanu Neal, ILB Kwon Alexander
Key additions: OC Arthur Smith, QB Justin Fields, QB Russell Wilson, ILB Patrick Queen, P Cameron Johnson, S Miles Killebrew, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, S Deshon Elliot, DE Montravius Adams, DE Dean Lowry
Key Draft Picks: T Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson.
Summary: When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? One could also ask when do the Steelers not win at least seven games? Could this be the year? I have to say that keeping Mason Rudolph around for a bunch of years and then finally letting him go after he won a bunch of games was asinine. Mason had a completion percentage of 74% and a QBR of 70.6 in five games. Who do they ditch him for you ask? A short aging diva who cares more about his social media life in Russell Wilson, and a running back posing as a quarterback who can’t read defenses in Justin Fields. The good news is that the Steelers do not have to pay these guys much money right now as Denver is paying Wilson’s salary and Justin Fields went from wanting a huge contract to having to prove himself behind a veteran guy. I can’t imagine the locker room this year between these two. The Steelers actually had a solid defense when healthy last year ranking 7th in total EPA. They ranked 9th against the pass and 11th against the run. The offense was the problem ranking 25th in drop-back EPA as this team played musical chairs with the quarterback position until Mason finished out the season. I do not understand the Arthur Smith hiring and not keeping their running backs coach Eddie Faulkner at offensive coordinator from when he was the interim, after they fired Matt Canada. I thought he did fine with what he had to work with. Now the Steelers by far have the hardest schedule in the league facing all super bowl contenders for the second half of the season. I only see seven wins for this team so take the under. I have the Steelers power rating at -1.25 which is slightly below average.
My Number: 7.09
Action –Under 8.5 wins -165 – 1.5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
*Blue Means not signed
Best Bets: Bengals under 10.5 +120 1 star, Steelers under 8.5 wins -165 – 1.5 stars, Ravens over 10.5 wins -135 – .5 stars
USE PROMO CODE Baseball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY MLB BASEBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024 season! Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 30th 2024
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
2024 MLB Season 75-60-6 up 9U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Royals vs Dodgers -208 O/U 7.5
This should be a fun game today out in LA! The Royals have really been a solid team thus far for 2024. This team is 40-31 after 71 games! Pretty amazing feat thus far for a Kansas City team that is virtually ignored. The Dodgers on the other hand are number one in their division at 43-28 and looking to stay there. We have two great pitchers facing off. Seth Lugo takes the helm for the Royals boasting a 2.37 ERA and a nice .275 wOBA. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the horse pitching for the Dodgers boasting a 3.00 ERA and a .276 wOBA. Looks like two fantastic pitchers to me! The Dodgers will get the nod today for the batting ranking 2nd in wRC+ to the Royals at 14th, but does that warrant such a discrepancy with two pretty equal pitchers? I think that Lugo goes at least five innings here of possible shut-out baseball. Lastly, the Royals are decent against righties ranking 12th in wRC+ while the Dodgers are 3rd. I think this game could be tied after five.
We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from Gold Boys discord and @VSINLIVE is back to break down some NFL! First, Kiev gets into his AFC North division al preview and a few plays that he likes! Next, Will comes on and the guys get into the NBA and talk about Dallas’s chances of winning the title. Then, the guys get right into some NFL starting with some over-hyped (over-valued) teams and some under-valued teams for 2024 at the current numbers. After that, Will and Kiev go division by division talking about some plays that they have made for the big NFL season. Finally, the guys get right into Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY MLB BASEBALL PACKAGE or 50% OFF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 30th 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise. Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
With his win at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, Scottie Scheffler captured his 11th PGA TOUR title and fifth of the season. This makes him the first player to win five times in a season on TOUR before the U.S. Open since Tom Watson in 1980. Scheffler also becomes the seventh player since 1983 (16th instance) to achieve five or more wins in a single season on TOUR, and the first since Justin Thomas in 2016-17 (5).
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Scottie Scheffler
World No. 1 and FedExCup leader Scottie Scheffler enters the week with victories in five of his last eight starts on TOUR. He has also secured top-10 finishes in his last three U.S. Open appearances (3rd in 2023, T2 in 2022, T7 in 2021). Scheffler aims to become the first player to win multiple majors in the same year since Brooks Koepka (2018 U.S. Open and PGA Championship). The last player to win on TOUR and subsequently win a major the following week was Rory McIlroy in 2014 (won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational before the PGA Championship).
Xander Schauffele
2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele comes into the U.S. Open with a remarkable record, having finished inside the top 15 in all seven of his career appearances, including top-fives in 2017 (T5), 2019 (T3), and 2020 (5th). Schauffele has also finished inside the top 20 in each of the last nine major championships dating back to the 2022 PGA Championship. A win would make Schauffele the first player to win consecutive major championships since Jordan Spieth in 2015.
Tiger Woods
Three-time U.S. Open winner Tiger Woods is making his fourth start of the season (WD/The Genesis Invitational, 60th/Masters Tournament, MC/PGA Championship) and his first U.S. Open appearance since 2020.
Pinehurst No. 2 History
2014 U.S. Open: 27 players in the field competed in this event, including seven who finished inside the top 10.
2005 U.S. Open: Five players in the field competed, including Tiger Woods (2nd), Sergio Garcia (T3), Adam Scott (T28), Phil Mickelson (T33), and Matt Kuchar (MC).
1999 U.S. Open: Three players in the field competed, with notable finishes from Phil Mickelson (2nd), Tiger Woods (T3), and Matt Kuchar (MC).
The United States Open Championship, commonly known as the U.S. Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States and is the third of the four major championships in professional golf.
History and Evolution
The inaugural U.S. Open was played in 1895 at the Newport Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island, on a nine-hole course. It was a single-day, 36-hole competition. John J. McDermott became the first American-born winner of the U.S. Open in 1911.
Traditionally, the U.S. Open employed an 18-hole playoff if players were tied after 72 holes. However, in 2018, this format was changed to a two-hole aggregate playoff. If the tie persists after two holes, the competition moves to a sudden-death format.
Benefits for Winners
Winning the U.S. Open comes with significant rewards:
A five-year exemption on the PGA Tour.
Invitations to play in the three other majors for the next five years.
A ten-year exemption from qualifying for the U.S. Open itself.
Pinehurst No. 2
Pinehurst No. 2, designed by the legendary Scottish golf course architect Donald Ross, was constructed in 1907 and has seen various modifications while preserving its essential character. A significant restoration in 2010 by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw aimed to return the course to Ross’s original vision, emphasizing natural sandscapes, native wiregrass, and strategic play by reducing the amount of rough.
Course Features
Greens: Known for their crowned, undulating nature, the greens at Pinehurst No. 2 are among the most challenging in golf, requiring precise approach shots.
Layout: The fairways are generally wide, but the course features extensive sandscapes and natural areas instead of traditional rough, creating a unique and visually striking layout.
Championship History
Pinehurst No. 2 has hosted several notable U.S. Open Championships:
1999: Payne Stewart’s dramatic victory, highlighted by a memorable 15-foot par putt on the 18th hole.
2005: Michael Campbell’s triumph over Tiger Woods.
2014: Martin Kaymer’s dominant 8-shot victory.
In 2014, Pinehurst No. 2 made history by hosting the U.S. Women’s Open the week following the U.S. Open, marking the first time both events were held on the same course in consecutive weeks. Michelle Wie won her first major championship in this event.
Future Events
Pinehurst No. 2 is also slated to host the U.S. Open in 2029, 2035, 2041, and 2047, continuing its legacy as a premier venue for major golf championships.
Most Tournament Wins:
4, Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980
72-Hole Record (Event):
268, Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)
18-Hole Record (Event):
62, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele (Round 1, 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Donald Ross in 1907, Pinehurst No. 2 features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
In terms of length, Pinehurst No. 2 is one of the longer courses on the Tour measuring 7,548 yards. It ranks 2nd out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 6th of 44, with the average fairway width being 40.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6500 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers are a huge factor here as there are 117 which ranks as the 2nd most of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 184 yards and 228 yards.In terms of stats, two of the Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 6, 228 Yards, Par 3: “A significant false front must be negotiated on this, the longest of Course No. 2s par-3 holes. An expansive tee allows for great setup flexibility and can result in a 30+ yard difference from day to day. This was the most difficult hole for the week in 2014.”
No. 17, 207 Yards, Par 3: “The 17th hole proved pivotal during the first two U.S. Opens played at Pinehurst No. 2. The putting green sits slightly below the tee and is very well protected by bunkers. A precise tee shot is a necessity.”
There are twelve Par 4’s at Pinehurst No. 2 with the majority (four) of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 13 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 381 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 530 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course in 2014 was No. 16 (+0.341).
No. 16, 530 Yards, Par 4: “This hole was the most difficult of the par 4s in 2014 playing to a stroke average of 4.34. The putting green is open in the front such that a 2nd shot can be bounced onto the green, but a false front is present for the first 10 yards; a ball that doesn’t get past that measurement will trundle back off the putting surface.”
No. 18, 448 Yards, Par 4: “The home hole offers a demanding – some might say awkward – tee shot. The clubhouse is plainly in sight from the tee, but the drive zone is not. Players must negotiate the aiming bunker that sits into the hillside on the right, but if they bail out to the left, they are likely to run out of fairway and finish in the sandy natural area.”
There are two Par 5’s at Pinehurst No. 2, No. 5 & No. 10. They all played under par in 2014, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course in 2014 was No. 5 with a scoring average of 4.80.
No. 5, 588 Yards, Par 5: “Another good chance to pick up a shot, or maybe two, as Martin Kaymer did in Round 3 on his way to the 2014 U.S. Open title! That said, miss this green left and it’s very easy to make a bogey or worse.”
No. 10, 617 Yards, Par 5: “Most players will play this as a three-shot hole. As a result, they will play their third shot with a wedge to the largest putting green on the golf course.”
Hole
Yards
Par
Hole
Yards
Par
1
395
4
10
617
5
2
504
4
11
482
4
3
387
4
12
486
4
4
528
4
13
381
4
5
588
5
14
472
4
6
228
3
15
197
3
7
426
4
16
530
4
8
488
4
17
207
3
9
184
3
18
448
4
OUT
3,728
35
IN
3,820
35
TOTAL
7,548
70
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Pinehurst No. 2
Driving Distance (Yards)
N/A
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
70%
GIR Percentage
66%
56%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
N/A
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
50%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.90
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Pinehurst No. 2.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Ludvig Aberg
Rico Hoey
Collin Morikawa
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Min Woo Lee
Bryson Dechambeau
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Pinehurst No. 2.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Rory McIlroy
Akshay Bhatia
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Aaron Rai
Russell Henley
Seamus Power
Sahith Theegala
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The average green size at Pinehurst No. 2 is 6,500 sq. ft. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Webb Simpson
Alex Noren
Denny McCarthy
Tommy Fleetwood
Scottie Scheffler
Lucas Glover
Davis Thompson
Mac Meissner
Good Drives Gained
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau
Aaron Rai
Sepp Straka
Lucas Glover
Bryson DeChambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Austin Eckroat
Tommy Fleetwood
Tom Hoge
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The green complexes at Pinehurst No. 2 are Champion ultradwarf bermuda.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Russell Henley
Nick Taylor
Cameron Smith
Billy Horschel
Sahith THeegala
Thomas Detry
Xander Schauffele
Chesson Hadley
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at Pinehurst No. 2 range between 175-220 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Corey Conners
Russell Henley
Brian Harman
Byeong Hun An
Denny McCarthy
Sam Burns
S.H. Kim
Rico Hoey
Akshay Bhatia
Matt Fitzpatrick
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x4)
Four of the twelve Par 4’s at Pinehurst No. 2 range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Tom Hoge
Bryson DeChambeau
Brooks Koepka
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Viktor Hovland
Lucas Glover
Ludvig Aberg
Hideki Matsuyama
Bogey AvoidanceGained
Pinehurst No. 2 ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Denny McCarthy
Sepp Straka
Alex Noren
Aaron Rai
Ludvig Aberg
The Field:
This year’s U.S. Open will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winners of the U.S. Open for the last ten years
Winner and runner-up from the previous year’s U.S. Amateur and winners of the previous year’s U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Mid-Amateur[13]
The runner-up from the U.S. Amateur, the winner of the U.S. Junior Amateur, and U.S. Mid-Amateur must remain an amateur.
The winner of the U.S. Amateur, however, may turn professional after winning the U.S. Amateur and retain his eligibility.
Winner of the previous year’s Amateur Championship[14]
The previous year’s Mark H. McCormack Medal winner for the top-ranked amateur golfer in the world[14]
Winners of each of Masters Tournament, Open Championship and PGA Championship for the last five years
Winners of the last three Players Championships
Winner of the current year’s BMW PGA Championship
Winner of the last U.S. Senior Open
Players who win multiple U.S. PGA Tour events during the time between tournaments, provided the tournaments each offer 500 or more points to the winner, and are not opposite-field events.
In the year after the Olympic golf tournament, the reigning men’s gold medalist
Top 10 finishers and ties from the previous year’s U.S. Open
Players who qualified for the previous year’s Tour Championship
The top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as of two weeks before the start of the tournament
The top 60 in the OWGR as of the tournament date
The top player in the PGA Tour second-tier developmental series points, based on combined points from the Regular Season and Finals, from the previous season (starting in 2023). [15]
Special exemptions selected by the USGA
All remaining spots after the second top 60 OWGR cutoff date filled by alternates from qualifying tournaments.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Wyndham Clark (’23), Matt Fitzpatrick (’22), Jon Rahm (’21), Bryson DeChambeau (’20), Gary Woodland (’19), Brooks Koepka (’18, ’17), Dustin Johnson (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Martin Kaymer (’14), Justin Rose (’13), Webb Simpson (’12), Rory McIlroy (’11), Lucas Glover (’09), Tiger Woods (’08, ’02, ’00)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Ashton McCulloch, Benjamin James, Brandon Robinson Thompson, Bryan Kim, Carter Jenkins, Casey Jarvis, Chris Petefish, Colin Prater, Eugenio Chacarra, Frederik Kjettrup, Grant Forrest, Gunnar Broin, Harry Higgs, Hiroshi Tai, Jackson Buchanan, Joey Vrzich, John Chin, Justin Lower, Logan McAllister, Ludvig Aberg, Luke Clanton, Michael McGowan, Neal Shipley, Nicolai Hojgaard, Otto Black, Parker Bell, Rico Hoey, Riki Kawamoto, Sam Bairstow, Santiago De la Fuente, Seonghyeon Kim, Taisei Shimizu, Tim Widing, Tom McKibbin, Wells Williams, Willie Mack III
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
None
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Scottie Scheffler (+300)
Scottie Scheffler enters this week on a hot streak, having won five of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. He is coming off a victory at the Memorial Tournament, where he edged out Collin Morikawa by one stroke. This will be his seventh appearance in a U.S. Open, and in his last three starts in this event, he has consistently finished inside the top 10.
Xander Schauffele (+1000)
Xander Schauffele secured his first Major Championship two weeks ago at Valhalla Golf Club. He has been remarkably consistent, finishing outside the top 20 only once in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. Schauffele has a strong record in the U.S. Open, having competed in seven previous editions and finishing inside the top 15 in each one.
Rory McIlroy (+1100)
Rory McIlroy has won two of his last five starts on the PGA Tour and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in any of those events. He captured the U.S. Open title in 2011 at Congressional. In his last five appearances in the U.S. Open, McIlroy has not finished worse than T9, highlighting his consistent performance in this major.
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Collin Morikawa has been in excellent form, finishing inside the top 5 in each of his last three starts on the PGA Tour. In his last three U.S. Open appearances, Morikawa has not finished worse than T14, showcasing his ability to compete at a high level in this prestigious event.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
In 2014, the last time the U.S. Open was held at Pinehurst No. 2, the winning score was -9 (271.0). However, the two other times Pinehurst No. 2 hosted the U.S. Open (2005, 1999), the winning score was above 275.5.
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +400 / No -650)
Since 2008, the U.S. Open has not ended in a playoff.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +100 / No -135)
In 2014, the last time the U.S. Open was held at Pinehurst No. 2, there was one hole-in-one which was on No. 9.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Facts and Figures:
All of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 32 in the OWGR.
US golfers have been successful in seven of the last 10 editions.
Seven of the last 10 winners of the US Open were in their 20s.
All the previous 10 US Open winners had already posted a top 25 in the event and five of those had recorded a top 10.
Eight of the last 10 US Open winners had posted a top 10 in at least one of their previous two Majors.
Eight of the last 10 winners posted a top 12 in one or both of their previous two PGA Tour starts.
Eight of the last 10 US Open winners had ranked in the top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of their previous two starts
Seven of the last 10 winners had at least one week off in the previous fortnight ahead of their US Open win.
All credit for the 10-year trends goes to Dave Tindall. You can check out his full article here.
Recent Horses for Courses (Event):
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
The Country Club (Composite Course)
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Tom Kim
2
69.88
T8
23
–
–
–
Min Woo Lee
2
70.00
T5
T27
–
–
–
Xander Schauffele
7
70.25
T10
T14
T7
5
T3
Scottie Scheffler
6
70.55
3
T2
T7
–
MC
Collin Morikawa
5
70.56
T14
T5
T4
MC
T35
Brooks Koepka
10
70.58
T17
55
T4
–
2
Rory McIlroy
15
71.12
2
T5
T7
T8
T9
Denny McCarthy
4
71.07
T20
T7
–
–
–
Jon Rahm
8
71.21
T10
T12
WON
T23
T3
Hideki Matsuyama
11
71.26
T32
4
T26
T17
T21
Dustin Johnson
16
71.40
T10
T24
T19
T6
T35
Patrick Cantlay
7
71.71
T14
T14
T15
T43
T21
Harris English
8
71.78
T8
T61
3
4
T58
Recent Horses for Courses (Pinehurst):
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
Pinehurst No. 2
Pinehurst No. 2
Pinehurst No. 2
2014
2005
1999
Martin Kaymer
WON
–
–
Rickie Fowler
T2
–
–
Brooks Koepka
T4
–
–
Keegan Bradley
T4
–
–
Dustin Johnson
T4
–
–
Jason Day
T4
–
–
Rory McIlroy
T23
–
–
Francesco Molinari
T23
–
–
Billy Horschel
T23
–
–
Tiger Woods
–
2
T3
Sergio Garcia
T35
T3
–
Phil Mickelson
T28
T33
2
Adam Scott
T9
T28
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
The Country Club (Composite Course)
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Nick Dunlap
2
75.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Victor Perez
4
74.75
MC
MC
MC
MC
–
Sunghoon Kang
4
73.83
–
–
MC
MC
–
Corey Conners
5
73.50
MC
MC
MC
MC
–
Adrian Meronk
2
73.50
MC
–
MC
–
–
Kurt Kitayama
3
73.17
MC
MC
–
MC
–
Davis Thompson
2
72.50
MC
–
–
MC
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Pinehurst):
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
U.S. Open
Pinehurst No. 2
Pinehurst No. 2
Pinehurst No. 2
2014
2005
1999
Lucas Glover
MC
–
–
Justin Thomas
MC
–
–
Brian Campbell
MC
–
–
Shane Lowry
MC
–
–
Matt Kuchar
T12
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores and Prices
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10) – Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
Price:66-1
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) – The Country Club (Composite Course)
Price: 25-1
2021: Jon Rahm (-6) – Torrey Pines (South Course)
Price: 10-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) – Winged Foot (West Course)
Price: 25-1
2019: Gary Woodland (-13) – Pebble Beach
Price: 80-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Wyndham Clark
T12 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
WON – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T24 – Mexico Open (PGA)
3 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
T10 – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T5 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T2 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2021: Jon Rahm
WD – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T34 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
7 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
T6 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T8 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T3 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
2019: Gary Woodland
T52 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
WD – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T32 – The Masters (MAJ)
T17 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Wyndham Clark
2022
2021
The Country Club (Composite Course)
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Wyndham Clark
MC
MC
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Pinehurst No. 2
Matt Fitzpatrick
T55
MC
T12
T12
T35
T54
T48
2021: Jon Rahm
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Jon Rahm
T23
T3
MC
MC
T23
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Chambers Bay
Bryson DeChambeau
T35
T25
MC
T15
MC
2019: Gary Woodland
2018
2017
2015
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Chambers Bay
Pinehurst No. 2
Olympic Club (Lake Course)
Congressional (Blue Course)
Pebble Beach
Bethpage State Park (Black Course)
Gary Woodland
T36
T50
MC
T52
MC
T23
MC
T47
Picks (Outrights):
Bryson DeCheambeau (+2000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Brooks Koepka (+2200) – DraftKings
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Ludvig Aberg (+2200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Tom Kim (+9000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Dustin Johnson (+9000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.32 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Smith (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Hideki Matsuyama (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Si Woo Kim (+115) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Aaron Rai (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
The NFC East: The NFC East was a very split division last year with two teams that were good, at least through 2/3 of the season, and two teams that were straight up terrible. It’s hard to quantify what exactly went wrong with the Eagles last year, but I am sure fatigue set in at some point. Both the Eagles and the Giants greatly overachieved from an expected wins perspective based on Pythagorean win totals, while the Cowboys had a great regular season and maybe should have won an extra game. We already knew the Commies were in trouble early in the season, while seeing the Giants falter wasn’t much of a surprise. This year, The NFC East plays the NFC South which is nice, and the AFC North which is rough. Let’s see how this all shakes out.
Schedule: Medium Hard – At Large vs Detroit, @San Francisco, vs Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DC Dan Quinn, DE Dorance Armstrong, C Tyler Biadasz, RB Tony Pollard, LT Tyron Smith, DE Dante Fowler Jr., DT Jonathan Hankins, WR Michael Gallup, RT La’el Collins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore
Key additions: ILB Eric Kendricks, RB Ezekiel Elliot, DC Mike Zimmer.
Whom they drafted: T Tyler Guyton, Edge Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau and some dudes.
Summary: The Cowboys are all in for 2024, yet they haven’t done jack in the offseason minus losing a bunch of talent. The Cowboys are also being weird with their non-clutch quarterback in Dak Prescott. Is he non-clutch? Well in the playoffs, he certainly hasn’t performed. This Texas team lost a bunch of dudes this year. They are also just doing things that make no sense. Dallas released Tony Pollard this offseason, who they kept over Zeke in 2023, and this year, they signed a washed up Zeke back on the team. This move makes no sense and probably confuses the locker room. Dem boys also lost a bunch of starting offensive lineman, and are hoping that their draft picks can all turn out. What are the chances of that? Leighton Vander Esch wasn’t there much last year, but the Cowboys depth took a hit at linebacker with his retirement. Jerry Jones decided to keep coach Mike McCarthy another year where I just do not see him taking this team over the top. Ok, now the good stuff. Dem Boys were number 2 in pass EPA and number 10 in rush EPA from 2023. On defense, they were number 5 in pass EPA and number 10 in rush EPA. Mike Zimmer replaces Dann Quinn at defensive coordinator which makes me think that Jerry Jones just likes old guys. The Cowboys won 12 games last year, and according to their Pythagorean win total at 12.7, they actually under-achieved. Very solid performances, but we must remember that four of those games were against the Giants and the Commies. None the less, I think that Dak is a very good regular season quarterback, but this team is losing trenches due to having to pay their stars. CeeDee Lamb is next on this list who will require a suitcase full of cash. I think that this team has really fell off the wagon when it come to finishing out a season, and now this team will be thin in the trenches. The window is closing for big D. If were the GM, I would decide to NOT PAY DAK until he wins an NFC championship. If he holds out, then move on. I have the Cowboys winning 9.85 games so lean to the under.
My Number: 9.85
Action: Lean under
Dallas Power Rating: 4.25
2. Philadelphia Eagles –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -125
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.13
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Green Bay, vs Jacksonville, @ LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Sean Desai, OC Brian Johnson, C Jason Kelce, RB D’Andre Swift, FS Kevin Byard, QB Marcus Mariota, G Jack Driscoll, Edge Nicholas Morrow, DT Fletcher Cox, ILB Fletcher Cunningham
Key additions: OC Kellen Moore, DC Vic Fangio, RB Saquon Barkley, LB Bryce Huff, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, ILB Devin White, RT Mekhi Becton, DT PJ Mustipher, C Matt Hennessy, Edge Zach Baun
Whom they drafted: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB Cooper DeJean, Edge Jalyx Hunt, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Summary: The Eagles went from 10-1 to 11-6. How the heck did this team finish the season so poorly? Not to mention getting blown out in the wild-card game in Tampa Bay. Well, I attribute this to a few things. First, the team was very injured especially on defense after the 1st half of the season. Second, the team was mentally exhausted in having that big super bowl run from 2022. Third, I think that Nick Siriani isn’t as good of a coach as some once thought after he lost his two coordinators in the 2022 offseason. Fourth, the Eagles had a harder schedule than they did the year before. This year, the Eagle’s schedule moves back to Medium Easy with a nice +12 days net rest. There were a lot of changes made this year for 2024. Two new coordinators, and a bunch of free agents come into the locker room trying to make a difference. I really like the changes as a whole. Vic Fangio is maybe the best DC in the league while Kellen Moore has shown talent running the show in Dallas a few years back. This move should certainly sweeten up this rivalry. The losses of center Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox hurt, but you really have to love what this team did in free agency and in the draft. Getting secondary help from getting the best corner in the 2024 NFL draft in Quinyon Mitchell, and maybe the most versatile defensive back in Cooper DeJean was smart. I expect the tush-push to live on for 2024, but I have to think that teams should be more prepared for it this year. Even though this team over-achieved from a Pythagorean perspective, I think that they did enough in the offseason to get right back close to the top in the NFC. This team will go as far as Jalen Hurts takes them this year, and I like the Eagles to win the division just like the market does.
My Number: 11.07
Action – no play
Philadelphia Power rating: 4.75
3. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 3.94
Schedule: Medium: At large games vs Minnesota, @ Seattle, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Wink Martindale, S Xavier McKinney, RB Saquon Barkley, DE A’Shawn Robinson, QB Tyrod Taylor, G Ben Bredeson, DE Jihad Ward, CB Adoree Jackson, G Mark Glowinski, WR Sterling Shepard
Key additions: DC Shane Bowen, DE Brian Burns, G Jon Runyan, RB Devin Singletary, RT Jermaine Eluemunor, QB Drew Lock, G Austin Shlottman, DE Jordan Phillips and a bunch of prayers
Key Draft Picks: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips
Summary: Last year the Giants played more like midgets. Coach Brian Daboll proved that his coach of the year award that he received back in 2022 season was a complete fugazi. What is worse is that this team had to get rid of their better quarterback in Tyrod Taylor because they paid the wrong guy in Daniel Jones. I know it, he knows it, and most of the NFL knows it. Even with a decent quarterback, this team lost a lot of top guys on the defense from last season. Their best move however was getting edge rusher Brian Burns for a steal from Carolina. Burns is a beast and should be able to at least keep this defense half way respectable. The Giants two biggest free agent losses where Saquon Barkley, and Xavier McKinney. I don’t see much of a replacement for them in getting Devin Singletary and Tyler Nubin to fill in. It also doesn’t bode well to see the Giants as the 2nd most over-achieving team from 2023 from a Pythagorean standpoint when they should have won only 4 games. The Giants were an abysmal 30th in EPA per play on offense and 22nd on defense. These numbers were relevant even before the injury to Daniel Jones. I have a very low projection for this team, and I think that the Giants might end up being the worst team this year in the NFL.
My Number: 5.07
Action – Under
NY Giants Power Rating: -5.5
4. Washington –
Vegas Win total: 6.5 juiced to the under +100
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.64
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Arizona, vs Chicago, vs Tennessee.
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Ron Rivera, OC Eric Bieniemy, WR Curtis Samuel, QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, CB Kendall Fuller, RB Antonio Gibson, S Kamren Curl, LB Docy Barton, T Charles Leno, G Nick Gates.
Key additions: Coach Dan Quinn, OC Kliff Kingsbury, DE Dorance Armstrong, LB Frankie Luvu, C Tyler Biadasz, G Nick Allegretti, RB Austin Ekeler, ILB Bobby Wagner, S Jeremy Reaves, QB Marcus Mariota, S Jeremy Chinn, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler JR., CB Michael Davis, G Michael Dieter.
Key draft picks: QB Jayden Daniels, DL Jer’Zhan Newton, CB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnot, T Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey.
Summary: Dan Qunn and Kliff Kingsbury. What could go wrong? Well, it can’t be much worse than the four wins that they had last year can it? This Commanders team, believe it or not, should have had more wins that the Giants. Anyways, there are a ton of changes with this team for 2024. I do not like the hiring of head coach Dan Quinn, and with Kingsbury, this feels as incohesive as the 2023 LA Chargers. One good thing that I will say for this team in 2024 is that they had opened the check book signing anyone with a pulse to a one year contract. The Jayden Daniels draft pick could turn out great, but if not, Maybe Sam Hartman can do something later in the season if he makes the team. I was pretty high on Sam pre-draft. Marcus Mariota will at least get the team started for the pre-season, and will hopefully be a good placeholder for Jayden early in the 2024 season. The Commies had a decent draft, but they missed out on some tackles to help protect their quarterback. They also are downgraded at edge rusher from last year going down from Montez Sweat and Chase Young to Dante Folwer Jr, and Dorance Armstrong. The Commanders last year were 25th in offensive EPA, and dead last at 32nd on defense. If it wasn’t for the Giants, I would say that this team should finish last in this division. I have the Commanders power rated to start he season below the Giants, but I will say that they have more upside with a quarterback in Jayden Daniels. Daniels is very fast, and can throw the deep ball with some pretty good accuracy. Christian McCaffery’s brother was drafted to this team at wide receiver from Rice University. He might be fun to watch early. I am going to remain slightly optimistic for this team, but they should not win more than six games.
The NFC West Once again, the NFC West ended up a top heavy division except with the Rams and the Seahawks switching positions. Many predicted that the Cardinals were going to be the worst team in football, yet they seemed to have some fight in them early while surprising a few teams like the Steelers and the Eagles late into the season. The Rams were predicted to lose more than nine games by many analysts and sharp bettors, yet they decided to mess around and make the playoffs. Seattle was the meddling team who fired their coach after a winning season which was one of my biggest head scratchers of the early offseason. For 2024, The NFC West plays the NFC North and the AFC East. This is really kind of a mixed bag depending on how the Vikings, Bears and the Patriots really are next season. Lets dig into these teams some.
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs Kansas City, vs Dallas, @ Tampa Bay
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DE Arik Armstead, DE Chase Young (borrowed), TE Charlie Woerner, QB Sam Darnold, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Sebastian Joseph, CB Isaiah Oliver, OLB Randy Gregory, DE Clelin Ferrell, DC Steve Wilks, FS Tashaun Gipson
Key additions: DC Nick Sorensen, Defensive assistant Brandon Staley, DE Leonard Floyd, DE Yetur Gross Matos, DT Jordan Elliott, QB Joshua Dobbs, CB Isaac Yiadom, CB Rock Ya-Sin
Key Draft Picks: WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green, T Dominick Puni, S Malik Mustapha, RB Isaac Guerendo, WR Jacob Cowing
Summary: The 49ers once again was so close yet choked when they had the opportunity to put the Chiefs away in the Super Bowl. Kinda sick of this and Kyle Shanahan needs to get over this hump. The 49ers kept their core guys in the offseason, but they also had to shed a good amount of talent as many good teams do in the offseason. The defense is thin from losing a plethora of defensive line. That worries me some. The depth will take a hit for this team and injuries could really spell trouble. The 49ers also have their offensive issues because they simply cannot pay everyone. Wide Receiver Brandon Ayuik’s camp isn’t happy, and I feel that either him or Deebo Samuel will have to go before the season gets started. One of them has to go. I wasn’t a huge fan of the draft in that I think getting a receiver in round one was suspect. It felt like a power move against Ayuik. In saying all of this, this 49ers team finished second in my power ratings. Brock Purdy was solid as ever in his sophomore season while the team led the league in EPA per play. On defense they were also pretty solid at 10th in EPA, but the firing of Steve Wilks says that they want to be better. The 49ers will remain one of the top three teams in my power ratings for the start of the 2024 season. If they stay healthy, they will be right back in the Super Bowl mix.
My Number: 11.65
Action: No Action
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 6.75
2. LA Rams –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -140
2023 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.39
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Las Vegas, vs Miami, @ New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Aaron Donald, QB Carson Wentz, S Jordan Fuller, G Coleman Shelton, DE Jonah Williams, CB Ahkello Witherspoon.
Key additions: G Jonah Jackson, TE Colby Parkinson, CB Darious Williams, S Kamren Curl, CB Tre-Davious White, QB Jimmy Garoppolo,
Key Draft Picks: Edge Jared Verse, DL Braden Fiske, RB Blake Corum, S Kamren Kinchens, Edge Brennan Jackson.
Summary: Man, I really really need to rethink betting against great coaches. I was one of the first to take the Rams udner 7.5 wins. It closed at 6.5 and Sean McVey, aka F’ around and find out, goes out and wins 10 games. They also gave the Lions a huge run for their money. The obvious thing that happened in the offseason is Aaron Donald’s retirement. One just simply can’t replace that kind of guy. In saying that, you have to love what this team did in the draft and free agency. Getting a great guard like Jonah Jackson was huge for them and drafting a blocking tight end will certainly help the run game. Signing Jimmy Garoppolo was nice as he knows Kyle Shanahan’s offense like the best of them. It was kind of a power move if you ask me. Running back Blake Corum was a steal in the draft while Jared Verse could be a complete stud. The Rams haven’t had a good draft class in years, and if Matthew Stafford remains motivated, this team could be very very good if this defense holds up. This could be a sneaky team with a fortunate at large schedule to back. I might take a little taste of the Rams to make the playoffs.
My Number: 9.7
Action – Strong Lean Over
LA Rams power rating: 2.5
3. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -120
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.35
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Denver, vs NY Giants, @ Atlanta
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Pete Carrol, G Damien Lewis, LB Jordyn Brooks, TE Colby Parkinson, TE Will Dissly, RB DeeJay Dallas, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Drew Lock, ILB Devin Bush, G Evan Brown, SS Jamal Adams, SS Quadre Diggs
Key additions: Coach Mike McDonald, S Rayshawn Jenkins, T George Fant, OLB Jerome Baker, LB Tyrel Dodson, TE Pharoah Brown
Key draft picks: DL Byron Murphy, G Christian Haynes and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: The Seahawks once again over-achieved last year getting the team to 9 wins. I give all the credit to coach Pete Carrol who continued to have nothing much to work with. Of course, he gets fired this year which is really what shocked me. Geno Smith proved better than I thought at quarterback, but still not good enough for a top tiered NFL team. The Pythag of 7.35 wins really says it all. Now the chickens of the sea bring in the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator as the new head coach who ran a very aggressive blitz first type defense. I am not so sure about the hire myself, but I think that it might improve the Seahawks defense from ranking 30th in EPA to somewhere in the middle. I really like the draft pick of Byron Murphy who should be able to clog up that interior. What I do not like is that the Seahawks shed lot of dudes last year at linebacker and at offensive line. I think that it mike take some time for this new scheme to gel under Ryan Grubb. I do not understand that hire as he came from the Washington commanders as a OC and quarterback’s coach. Brutal. The Seahawks were 10th in offensive EPA last year and I expect that to drop off drastically. I also think that they may shed wide receiver Tyler Lockett in the the weeks to come. This could be a disaster of a first year if they do not start out hot. Having a -13 net rest in their schedule doesn’t help. The good news is that the Seahawks get to start off vs Denver and at New England. The Schedule gets much harder after that. I only see a maximum of 7 wins and I will take the under 7.5.
My number: 6.67
Action – Under 7.5 +100 or bettor
Seattle’s Power Rating: -3
4. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -150
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.31
Schedule: Medium – at large vs vs Washington, vs LA Chargers, @ Carolina
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Marquise Brown, DT Leki Fotu, CB Antonio Hamilton, T DJ Humphries, TE Geoff Swaim
Key additions: DT Justin Jones, T Jonah Williams, CB Sean Bunting, DE Bilal Nicholes, LB Mack Wilson, RB DeeJay Dallas, G Evan Brown,
Key Draft Picks: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Edge Darius Robinson, CB Max Melton, RB Trey Benson, OT Isaiah Adams, TE Tip Reiman, CB Elijah Jones and some dudes.
Summary: The Arizona Cardinals are quietly one of the most interesting teams out there for 2024. Rich Gannon starts his sophomore year finally with a quarterback. Well, we think so anyways. As bad as the Cardinals were last year, they fought through some serious adversity. Kyler Murray only played half the season, and by that time the team’s motivations were shot. The Cardinals had a lot of money to spend in the offseason capitalizing on some good trenches coming in for 2024. The birds also may have found their next Larry Fitzgerald in drafting my number 1 ranked player in Marvin Harrison Jr.. This should make any quarterback happy and it’s now up to Kyler to perform. Last year, Trey McBride was a huge success at tight end. I also like the fact that there is a defensive minded coach in Rich Gannon who should be able to put something together more average than their 31st ranking in EPA. My biggest issue with the Cardinals is that their schedule starts out brutal going to Buffalo, then home vs LA, Detroit and Washington. Calling that 1-3. Then they go to San Francisco, Green bay and then home vs the LA Chargers. Maybe 2-5 at best. I think we wait to bet their win total over after week six or seven.
My Number: 7.16
Action – Lean over
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -3.25
Best Bets: Rams to make playoffs +100 – 1 star (DK), & Seattle Seahawks under 7.5 wins +100 – 1 star (DK)
