A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
Thursday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Toledo +7 O/U 50 Location: Ford Field (Detroit) Time: 2 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Pittsburgh’s Motivation: Medium Low – From playoffs to Detroit? Pat Narduzzi is 2-4 ATS in bowl games.
Toledo’s Motivation: Medium Low – Terrible bowl, but they at least get to play a Power 4 team, yet Jason Candle is only 1-6 ATS in bowl games.
Home: Toledo is only 58 miles away from Detroit! I do not see a ton of Pittsburgh fans traveling to Detroit in the winter. 1.5 points for the Rockets.
Key Guys Missing:
Toledo:
Toledo Transfer Portal
LT Allen Jones missed the finale
S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren hasn’t played since Week 9
Pitt Transfer Portal
DT Nahki Johnson (325 snaps)
DT Elliot Donald (81 snaps)
Backup QB Nate Yarnell
WR Konata Mumpfield opting out.
TE Gavin Bartholomew
Starting QB Eli Holstein and starting RB Desmond Reid missed the finale due to injuries. Starting LT Branson Taylor hasn’t played since Week 7. Coach Pat Narduzzi says that Reid would be ready to go but wasn’t positive on Holstein, although he sounded a bit optimistic.
Panthers would likely turn to redshirt freshman David Lynch if Holstein isn’t healthy enough, and with Yarnell in the portal.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Pitt: Pat Narduzzi, 2-4
Toledo: Jason Candle, 1-6
Net YPP: Pittsburgh +.39
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more important that the strength of schedule discrepancy as Toledo’s ranks 125th while Pitt’s ranks 54th.
Verdict: Neither coach does well in bowl games. Both teams aren’t the greatest at running the ball, yet Pitt might be a bit better on defense. Its rough that Pitt has a few opt outs such as their top receiver in Konta Mompfield, but they have plenty of depth at that position. The biggest question is the quarterbacks. If Holstein can go then bet Pitt as fast as you can.
Play: Lean Pitt -7
Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State -7 O/U 50.5 Location: Chase Field (Phoenix) Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Rutger’s Motivation: High – This team doesn’t bowl often and Greg Schiano is 6-2 ATS in bowl games.
Kansas State’s Motivation: Low – This team was close to the Big 12 championship game at the end of the season.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Rutgers Transfer Portal
WR Chris Long (338 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
Rutgers Potential Opt-Outs
CB Eric Rogers, starting
DE Arron Lewis
S Desmond Igbinosun
Kansas State Transfer Portal
Starting RT Carver Willis (committed to Washington)
Starting WR Keagan Johnson
Kansas State Opt-Outs
RB DJ Giddens (declared for NFL draft)
CB Jacob Parrish (declared for NFL draft)
Bowl Coach ATS:
Kansas State: Chris Klieman, 2-2
Rutgers: Greg Schiano, 6-2
Net YPP: Kansas State +1.88
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Not a hell of a lot to say other than Kansas State should be able to run all over this team ranking 15th in rush EPA to Rutgers ranking 123rd in opponent rush EPA. The Wildcats also have the harder strength of schedule. In saying all that, Rutgers should be the much more motivated team here based on what happened at the end of the year.
Verdict: Best to wait to see who else is opting out. Schiano will get his team up for bowl games. It is tough to see if Klieman will keep his guys from transferring or opting out.
Play: Lean Kansas State -7
68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green -7.5 O/U 51 Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium High – Good ole Butch Bones is good in bowls at 6-2 ATS in bowls.
Bowling Green’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great opponent, yet Scott Loeffler is only 0-2 ATS in bowls.
Home: None as Arkansas State is still over 450 miles away. Too far.
Key Guys Missing:
Bowling Green Transfer Portal
Starting RT Alex Wollschlaeger (signed with Kentucky)
Starting LB Joseph Sipp (signed with Kansas)
RB Terion Stewart (244 snaps)
DT Davonte Miles (193 snaps)
CB Edward Rhambo (207 snaps)
Bowling Green Potential Opt-Out
CB Jordan Oladokun
Reports have also surfaced that all Bowling Green starters are expected to play.
S Darius Lorfils dealt with an injury late in the season.
Arkansas State Transfer Portal
Starting CB Dontay Joyner
DE Jayden Jones (318 snaps)
Backup QB Timmy McClain
DL Nate Martey didn’t play in the finale.
DE Jayden Jones hasn’t played since Week 9.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Arkansas State: Butch Jones, 6-2
Bowling Green: Scott Loeffler, 0-2
Net YPP: Bowling Green +2.06
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: If everything is held even here, Bowling green should be able to move the ball at ease. They dominate in every single category. My only concern is that Scott Loeffler isn’t a good coach for bowls at 0-2 ATS, while Butch Jones is. Arkansas State is my worst power rated team in this year’s bowl season.
Verdict: I am going to lay it with Bowling Green. I just want to make sure that there are no surprises.
Play: Bowling Green -7.5
Friday, Dec. 27
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Navy +3 O/U 43.5 Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) Time: 3 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Oklahoma’s Motivation: Medium Low – This team had their big win and they are building for next year.
Navy’s Motivation: High – Why not get one more shot at a big named team?
Home: Big for Oklahoma as Norman is 183 miles away. But will people show up for a small bowl game? Give the Sooners the full 2.5 points.
Key Guys Missing:
Oklahoma:
Starting QB Jackson Arnold (signed with Auburn)
Starting WR Brenen Thompson (signed with Miss State)
Starting WR JJ Hester
Starting WR Jalil Farooq
Starting TE Bauer Sharp (signed with LSU)
CB Kani Walker (424 snaps; signed with Arkansas)
C Josh Bates (164 snaps; signed with SMU)
LB Dasan McCullough (160 snaps)
WR Jaquaize Pettaway (91 snaps)
C Geirean Hatchett (51 snaps; committed to Washington)
WR Nic Anderson (injured)
WR Andrel Anthony (injured)
Navy:
None
Bowl Coach ATS:
Oklahoma: Brent Venables, 1-1
Navy: Brian Newberry, 0-0
Net YPP: Navy +.97
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Two huge things, Oklahoma had the 2nd hardest schedule in the world compared to Navy’s ranking 88th, and the fact that Oklahoma may struggle to field a team with the amount of players who are leaving.
Verdict: Oklahoma is close to home, but there will be Navy fans here. Why would Oklahoma be motivated at all in this bowl game? Navy will probably win.
Navy ML +130
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt +2.5 O/U 51.5
Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Georgia Tech’s Motivation: High – They love playing SEC teams.
Vanderbilt’s Motivation: High – Not far to travel and Pavia a beast.
Home: Both locations are under 200 miles away. I still kinda like Georgia Tech.
Key Guys Missing:
Georgia Tech Transfer Portal
Starting WR Eric Singleton (potentially headed to Auburn)
Starting LT Corey Robinson
Starting OLB Romello Height (
Starting S Taye Seymore (headed to Auburn)
WR Leo Blackburn (67 snaps)
OLB BJ Diakite (65 snaps)
Third-string QB Zach Pyron (headed to Minnesota)
Georgia Tech Potential Opt-Outs
TE Jackson Hawes
RT Jordan Williams
DT Zeek Biggers
CB Rodney Shelley is questionable
CB Zachary Tobe is questionable
S Taye Seymore also didn’t play in the final few games due to an injury.
Haynes King confirmed he will play in the bowl.
Vanderbilt Transfer Portal
Starting OT Gunnar Hansen (signed with FSU)
Backup QB Nate Johnson
Bowl Coach ATS:
Georgia Tech: Brent Key, 1-0
Vanderbilt: Clark Lea, 0-0
Net YPP: Georgia Tech +1.17
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Georgia Tech really gets by from quarterback Haynes King running the ball, yet so does Vanderbilt with Dylan Pavia. There is a significant edge here for the Yellow Jackets in the fact that they should be able to move the ball both running and passing as they rank 34th in offensive success rate to Vanderbilt ranking 114th on defense. As long as the kids are playing, Georgia tech should cover this spread.
Verdict: Fun how both these teams played very well against Alabama and Georgia. As much as we love Dylan Pavia, the magic runs out for the Commodores this bowl game.
Play: Georgia Tech ML -1
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas -2 O/U 52 Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) Time: 7 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Texas Tech’s Motivation: Medium High – They get to beat an SEC team.
Arkansas’s Motivation: Medium Low – Lots of kids in the transfer portal.
Home: Arkansas only 310 miles away. Give them 1.5 points here.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas Tech Transfer Portal
LT Dalton Merryman (488 snaps)
DT Trevon McAlpine (284 snaps)
WR Jordan Brown (153 snaps)
Texas Tech Injuries
QB Behren Morton will miss the bowl after having surgery. place.
OLB Harvey Dyson hasn’t played since Week 9.
Starting DTs De’Braylon Carroll and Quincy Ledet Jr. missed the finale.
LB Bryce Ramirez (110 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 8.
S Devynn Cromwell also didn’t play in the final few gamess.
Texas Tech Opt-Outs
WR Josh Kelly
Arkansas Transfer Portal
Starting C Addison Nichols
Starting LG Andrew Kutas (signed with Ole Miss)
Starting RG Joshua Braun (signed with UK)
Starting WR Isaiah Sategna
Starting TE Luke Hasz (signed with Ole Miss)
Starting S TJ Metcalf
LB Brad Spence (366 snaps; signed with Texas)
DE Nico Davillier (362 snaps)
RB Rashod Dubinion (175 snaps)
RB Braylen Russell (137 snaps)
TE Ty Washington (116 snaps)
C Amaury Wiggins (94 snaps)
CB Jaylon Braxton (77 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
TE Var’Keyes Gumms (57 snaps)
Arkansas Opt-Outs
WR Andrew Armstrong
RB Ja’Quinden Jackson
DE Landon Jackson
Bowl Coach ATS:
Texas Tech: Joey McGuire, 2-0
Arkansas: Sam Pittman, 1-1
Net YPP: Arkansas +1.5
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton will miss due to surgery, Freshman Will Hammond, who did see some action this season, will start in his place. Looks like starting QB Talen Green will start for Arkansas which is scary being that most of his offensive line is transferring.
Verdict: Arkansas had a good offense, and should be able to move the ball, but I just can’t trust them with all of the opt outs.
Play: Lean to the over 52
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: Syracuse vs. Washington State +15.5 O/U 59.5 Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: FOX
Syracuse’s Motivation: Medium – Fun place to visit and this team at least gets to beat a former Power 5 team.
Washington State’s Motivation: Low – Everyone ditched this team.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Washington State head coach Jake Dickert left to take the same position at Wake Forest. The Cougars also lost OC Ben Arbuckle to Oklahoma. Also, keep an eye on the offense, as starting C Devin Kylany missed the final two games of the season.
Wazzu is now without its head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and running backs coach.
Washington State Transfer Portal
Starting QB John Mateer (committed to Oklahoma)
Starting RB Wayshawn Parker
Starting WR Kris Hutson
Starting RT Fa’alili Fa’amoe
Starting CB Ethan O’Connor
Starting CB Stephen Hall
Starting LB Taariq Al-Uqdah
Starting S Adrian Wilson
Starting DT Ansel Din-Mbuh
Starting P Nick Haberer
S Jackson Lataimua (400 snaps)
DL Khalil Laufau (371 snaps)
WR Tre Shackelford (179 snaps)
In all, 10 starters have entered the portal for Washington State, which says it won’t opt out of bowl as of Dec. 18.
With Mateer out it sounds like Zevi Eckhaus will get the start at quarterback for the Cougars.
Syracuse Transfer Portal
Starting CB Jayden Bellamy
LB Anwar Sparrow (126 snaps)
CB Marcellus Barnes (133 snaps)
Fran Brown said he expects everybody on Syracuse to play, including QB Kyle McCord. His exact quote was, “We don’t opt out around here.”
Starting center J’Onre Reed missed the finale with an ankle injury, as did WR Umari Hatcher (359 snaps).
Coach Bowl ATS:
Washington State, Pete Kaligis, 0-0
Syracuse: Fran Brown, 0-0
Net YPP: Washington State +.95
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the amount of people leaving the Washington State program.
Verdict: Lay the points -15.5
Play: Syracuse -15.5 or WASU TT under
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. USC +3.5 O/U 52 Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) Time: 10:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Texas A&M’s Motivation: Medium – Good to play a team like USC.
USC’s Motivation: Medium High – Good to have another chance to beat an SEC team in this stadium that would make it twice in one year.
Home: USC is much closer at only 275 miles way, but I do see lots of A&M guys in Vegas too. USC -.5 points max home field.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas A&M Transfer Portal
Starting WR Cyrus Allen
iOL TJ Shanahan (285 snaps)
OG Kam Dewberry (261 snaps)
DE Malick Sylla (60 snaps)
Backup QB Conner Weigman (original starter; signed with Houston))
Texas A&M Opt-Outs
DE Nic Scourton
DE Shemar Stewart
DT Shemar Turner
Head coach Mike Elko said he doesn’t expect any other opt-outs for the Aggies.
Texas A&M Potential Opt-Outs
RB Le’Veon Moss
USC Transfer Portal
Starting RT Mason Murphy
Starting WR Kyron Hudson (signed with Penn State)
Starting WR Duce Robinson
Starting WR Zachariah Branch
Backup RB Quinten Joyner (210 snaps)
TE Kade Eldridge (234 snaps)
S Zion Branch (217 snaps)
OLB Sam Greene (205 snaps; signed with UK)\
QB Miller Moss (original starting QB; signed with Louisville)
DL Bear Alexander (opted out earlier this season)
USC Opt-Outs
CB Jaylin Smith
RB Woody Marks
Coach Bowl ATS:
USC: Lincoln Riley, 3-3
Texas A&M: Mike Elko, 1-0
Net YPP: USC +.11
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Rushing advantage to Texas A&M ranking 43rd in rushing EPA while USC ranks 92 in opponent rush EPA. Passing advantage to USC ranking 8th in passing success rate to Texas A&M ranking 40th in opponent pass EPA. The problem is all of the D line opt outs for A&M, and the wide receiver opt outs for USC.
Verdict: What gives? I see some motivation on both sides. Need to wait more.
It’s a huge NFL Sunday, so why not pick the best game of the week to bet? Ok, well lets just bet on a game and not watch it. The Raiders will have QB Aiden O’Connell at quarterback. The Jags will be rolling with Mac Jones. I really can’t recommend a side in this game as both teams are massively incompetent with bad defenses. This is part of the reason that I like the total. Both offenses should be able to move the ball here. The game is in a dome and their are some decent players on both teams. The Jags offense ranks 17th in EPA. The Raiders are without Crosby and at home.
ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Oct 19, 2019; College Park, MD, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Stevie Scott III (8) reacts after scoring a first quarter touchdown of the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Staff DNA Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State +5 O/U 57.5
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Time: Noon TV Network: ESPN
Ohio’s Motivation: Low – This team won their conference and it’s time to party in Florida. Coach Tim Albin left town for Charlotte.
Jacksonville State’s Motivation: Low – The Gamecocks also won their conference but Rich Rodriguez is only 2-10 ATS in bowl games and he may have 1 foot out the door!
Home: None as Ohio folks will want to vacation.
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio Transfer Portal
N/A
Ohio is still the only team without any players in the portal as of now.
Jacksonville State Transfer Portal
Starting S Zechariah Poyser (led defense in snaps)
Starting OLB Reginald Hughes (best edge player)
Starting S Fred Perry (first-team All CUSA)
Starting CB Jabari Mack
Starting CB Fred Davis
CB Derek Carter (207 snaps)
OL K.D. Arnold (215 snaps)
Last year, players in the portal didn’t play in the bowl game for the Gamecocks.
Net YPP: Ohio +.34
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Jacksonville State plays fast, but somehow Ohio has been on a tear as of late. I think that it’s tough to compare conferences in this spot and motivation will be key. I think Jacksonville State has the lower motivation, but it’s very hard to tell that.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Jacksonville State: Michael Nysewander in the interim, 0-0
Ohio: Brian Smith is the new coach, 0-0
Verdict: This is a far line. I am shocked there are no Ohio Transfers as the coach has left. The over has pushed this line too high as these teams can stop each others rushing attack.
Play: Lean under
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida -10.5 O/U 49.5 Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Tulane’s Motivation: Medium High – They will get to play the SEC, yet they lost their quarterback Darian Mensah to transfer to Duke.
Florida’s Motivation: Medium Low – Beating Tulane doesn’t help much yet they are at least in their state and Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowl games.
Home: Florida gets 3 points as they have an easy 134 mile drive to Tampa.
Key Guys Missing:
Tulane Transfer Portal
Starting QB Darian Mensah (committed to Duke)
Starting DE Matthew Fobbs-White (committed to Baylor)
DL Parker Petersen (276 snaps; committed to Wisconsin)
RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (72 snaps)
Backup QB Ty Thompson
Backup QB Kai Horton
Despite entering the portal, former Oregon transfer Ty Thompson has stated he will still start at quarterback for the bowl game after Mensah committed to Duke. He was used in various packages this season.
Tulane Potential Opt-Out
DB Calen Ransaw
Florida Injuries
Top CB Jason Marshall (out for year)
CB2 Devin Moore (hasn’t played since Week 10)
CB3 Ja’Keem Jackson (hasn’t played since Week 2)
Nickel Aaron Gates (missed regular-season finale)
LB Pup Howard (hasn’t played since Week 11)
S Asa Turner (hasn’t played since Week 1)
Graham Mertz and WR Tre Wilson are also out for the year.
Florida Transfer Portal
Starting OLB T.J. Searcy
TE Arlis Boardingham (294 snaps)
DL Jack Pyburn (334 snaps, committed to LSU)
DE Justus Boone (138 snaps)
DL Kelby Collins (59 snaps)
Starting RG Damieon George entered the portal but then withdrew, which means four of the five starting offensive linemen should be back next season.
Net YPP: Tulane +.57
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than Florida’s strength of schedule ranking 5th in the nation to Tulane’s at 76. I also could see Florida having some success running the ball as Tulane has shown weakness against the run. Backup quarterback Ty Thompson will give it a shot for the Green Wave, but I also feel that they will be motivated as Jon Sumrall signed an extension.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Florida: Billy Napier: 0-4
Tulane: Jon Sumrall: 1-0
Verdict: 14 points is a lot to give a Florida team who hasn’t beaten a good team away from home all year long. Napier has not faired will in bowls at 0-4 ATS. I expect some more opt outs from Florida as well. Take the points.
Play: Tulane +10.5
PLAYOFFS!
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame -7 O/U 51
Location: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Indiana) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: ABC/ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: Notre Dame but only -2.5 as Indiana is in the state.
Key Guys Missing:
Indiana:
CB Jamier Johnson missed the regular-season finale
LG Drew Evans is injured.
Notre Dame:
LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will miss due to injury.
Net YPP: Indiana +.35
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Indiana is number 1 and number 4 in offensive and defensive success rate. Notre Dame is 30th and 12th respectively. Both teams are tops in both offensive and defensive EPA categories.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 2-0
Indiana: Curt Cignetti, 0-0
Verdict: If you like Notre Dame here, it is only because you think that the Big 10 is much weaker than the numbers show. I think that both of these teams are closer than some folks think.
Home: Penn State -3.5 for home field (thank god it’s not a white out)
Key Guys Missing:
SMU:
Backup QB Beau Pribula (won’t be with team)
TE RJ Maryland is out for the year
Penn State:
RT Anthony Donkoh
Net YPP: Penn State +.44
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Penn State has a small strength of schedule advantage at 44th to 61st. SMU is an interesting team that has low success rates on offense ranking 52nd, while they have some great explosiveness ranking 8th. This is why their offensive EPA is 19th. Penn State’s defense tends to struggle against explosive plays ranking 87th. Otherwise, Penn State should be able to score on SMU.
Bowl Coach ATS:
SMU: Rhett Lashlee, 0-2
Penn State: James Franklin, 7-5
Verdict: This game will completely depend on SMU QB Kevin Jennings. This kid has some great numbers this season and has beaten some very good teams. I do think that they can find some explosive plays and the back door is always wide open when you have a good offense. James Franklin has been terrible in big games.
Play: SMU +8.5 and take ML Small +250
No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas -12 O/U 51.5
Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas) Time: 4 p.m. TV Network: TNT
All Motivated
Home: Texas -3 at home.
Key Guys Missing:
Clemson:
WR Troy Stellato (314 snaps; currently injured)
Texas:
None
Net YPP: Texas +1.38
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Texas has a large strength of schedule advantage to go along with that massive yards per play discrepancy. The Longhorns can get a little lethargic on offense at times, but I just do not see how Clemson can move the ball. Texas dominates Clemson in all facets of the game.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Clemson: Dabo Swinney, 12-8
Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 2-4
Verdict: The only reason that Clemson is here is because of the ACC officiating. They could lose by 30 and this under could still hit. I just don’t completely trust Steve Sarkesian in big games similar to James Franklin. I think low scoring.
Key Stats: Both defenses have big advantages over the offenses, and especially in the trenches. Ohio State has more upside as their offense is ranked 2nd in EPA to Tennessee’s at 29th. Buckeye quarterback Will Howard has more big game experience than Nico Iamaleava from the Vols, yet this game could be a good offensive coaching matchup to see who can get first downs.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Tennessee: Josh Heupel, 3-3
Ohio State: Ryan Day, 2-4
Verdict: I think that this is the perfect number for this game, yet I lean Ohio State as they must just be reeling from the Michigan game.
Play: Lean under
Monday, Dec. 23
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA -10 O/U 55.5 Location: Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Time: 11 a.m. TV Network: ESPN
Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – They will want to finish of their season with a big win.
UTSA’s Motivation: Medium – UTSA has turned it up at the end to make a bowl game, but will they care to win it?
Home: This is literally a home game for Coastal Carolina.
Key guys Missing:
Coastal Carolina:
QB Noah Kim in portal
QB Ethan Vasko in portal
Head coach Tim Beck said redshirt freshman Tad Hudson (0 career snaps) will probably be the starter.
Starting TE Kendall Karr (looks like he’ll be headed to Houston)
Top CB Matthew McDoom (signed with Cincinnati)
Starting OLB Clev Lubin (signed with Auburn)
CB Cristian Conyer (362 snaps)
RB Christian Washington (298 snaps)
RB Simeon Price (131 snaps)
DL Naejuan Barber (293 snaps)
DL Cohen Fuller (172 snaps)
CB Jaitlin Hampton (123 snaps)
DL Will Whitson (182 snaps; last played Week 7)
RT Zovon Lindsay missed the regular-season finale.
LG Anthony Walton may be injured.
WR Cameron Wright may still be injured.
LB Shane Bruce missed the last two games.
LB Wyatt Gedeon missed the final two games.
S AJ Williams also missed the finale.
UTSA:
Starting DE Ronald Triplette in portal.
RB Kevorian Barnes (233 snaps) in portal.
WR Jace Wilson (197 snaps) in portal.
Backup QB Eddie Lee is injured..
CB Denver Harris didn’t play in the finale
TE Oscar Cardenas is out for the year (last played in Week 9).
Head coach Jeff Traylor says he expects most of roster to be available for bowl game with players in the portal even traveling with the team.
Net YPP: Coastal Carolina +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than Coastal Carolina’s opt out and transfers. I think that the backups will be motivated here, but it could get ugly quite fast. The Roadrunners have really come along since mid-season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Coastal Carolina: Tim Beck, 1-0
UTSA: Jeff Traylor, 2-2
Verdict: I will play UTSA as I think most of the rest of the team will play.
Play: UTSA -10
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State +3 O/U 42 Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) Time: 2:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Northern Illinois Motivation: Medium – Not a good reward to go to Boise, but this team might join the Mountain West conference. QB Ethan Hampton in transfer portal.
Fresno State’s Motivation: Medium Low – This team is going through cruel and unusual punishment in having to play their bowl game within a cold in-conference stadium like Boise. This place is so bad that both quarterbacks Ethan Hampton and Mikey Keene are in the transfer portal.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Fresno State hired Matt Entz as its new head coach, but current interim Tim Skipper will coach the bowl.
Fresno State Portal
Starting QB Mikey Keene
Starting WR Jalen Moss
Starting WR Raylen Sharpe (signed with Arkansas)
Starting CB Alzillion Hamilton
Starting DT Gavriel Lightfoot
Starting DT Jacob Holmes
Starting LB Phoenix Jackson (committed to Auburn)
WR Mac Dalena (declared for NFL draft)
CB Cam Lockridge (declared for NFL draft)
LG Osmar Velez
CB Cam Lockridge didn’t play in the final three games.
Northern Illinois Transfer Portal
Starting QB Ethan Hampton (signed with Wake Forest)
Starting S Santana Banner (signed with Missouri)
Starting WR Trayvon Rudolph
Starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard (signed with Texas Tech)
Starting DE Jalonnie Williams
DE Raishein Thomas (112 snaps)
DE Neveah Sanders (96 snaps; signed with Mississippi State)
CB Amariyun Knighten (started first eight games; going to Indiana)
Josh Holst will likely get start at QB.
Net YPP: Northern Illinois +.28
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: With all of the opt-outs on both sides of the ball, and looking at both quarterbacks being gone, I have to look to the running game. The Huskies rank 44th in rush EPA wile Fresno only ranks 88th in opponent rushing success rate. Fresno can’t run the ball ranking 122nd in yards per rush. With QB Mikey Keene out, this could be bad.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Northern Illinois: Thomas Hammock, 2-0
Fresno State: Tim Skipper, 0-0
Verdict: NIU should be able to run the ball, but they are already favored. The under looks like the better play, but I might just wait too see who else holds out.
Play: Lean NIU -3
Tuesday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl: South Florida vs. San José State -3.5 O/U 60 Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
USF’s Motivation: Medium Low – I think the kids have fun in Hawaii.
San Jose State’s Motivation: – Medium High – This team travels to Hawaii often in their conference, and Ken Niumatalolo is 7-4 ATS in bowl games. He is coming home to Hawaii which gives him an advantage.
Home: I do not think a big crowd will come from either, but I do see a small 1 point advantage for San Jose State being in California.
Key Guys Missing:
San Jose State Transfer Portal
Starting CB DJ Harvey (signed with USC)
Starting CB Michael Dansby
Backup QB Emmett Brown
C Hudson Mesa also missed the finale.
Best WR Nick Nash opting out
USF Portal
Starting S Tawfiq Byard
Starting DT Doug Blue-Eli (signed with Rutgers)
Starting LG Andrew Kilfoyl
Net YPP: San Jose State +1.25
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: South Florida ranking 37th in rush EPA and 9th in explosiveness while San Jose State’s defense can somewhat stop the run ranking 25th in rush EPA. San Jose State should be able to throw the ball well against South Florida’s poor pass defense.
Bowl Coach ATS:
South Florida: Alex Golesh, 1-0
San Jose State: Ken Niumatalolo, 7-4
Verdict: Coach Kenny’s island reunion! Which wins out, USF’s running game or San Jose State’s passing game? I thought the Spartans did pretty well stopping Ashton Jeanty when they played Boise State. I lean San Jose State, but they will be in trouble if they can’t stop the run.