We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @Gatorbetting is back to break down the US Open! First, Kiev talks about how great the extra sports have been for the summer. Next, we get into the NFC West preview for 2026! What are the divisional odds? Which teams lost a bunch of production? Which teams overachieved from 2025? Which teams have the hardest and the easiest schedules? We answer these questions and much more during the show. We also have a Best Bet! Then, Patrick comes on to break down the US Open! How do we handicap the course and the contestants? Who are the favorites and the sleepers? What is Patrick’s best bets? Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Profile: Elite offense, elite defensive EPA, but one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Explosive but volatile.
⭐ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)
Off EPA/play — 0.034 (17th)
Def EPA/play — -0.051 (24th)
Off Success Rate — 43.3% (23rd)
Def Success Rate — 42.5% (12th)
Off Pass EPA — 0.092 (16th)
Def Pass EPA — -0.017 (11th)
Profile: A middle‑tier offense paired with a top‑12 pass defense. Solid but not special.
⭐ Washington Commanders (WAS)
Off EPA/play — 0.035 (16th)
Def EPA/play — 0.152 (31st)
Off Success Rate — 46.5% (11th)
Def Success Rate — 47.8% (27th)
Off Pass EPA — 0.085 (17th)
Def Pass EPA — 0.239 (31st)
Profile: Top‑6 defense by EPA but bottom‑6 pass defense. Offense is quietly above average. A strange, unbalanced team.
⭐ New York Giants (NYG)
Off EPA/play — 0.043 (10th)
Def EPA/play — 0.096 (10th)
Off Success Rate — 42.9% (25th)
Def Success Rate — 47.1% (21st)
Off Pass EPA — 0.099 (15th)
Def Pass EPA — 0.088 (22nd)
Profile: Top‑10 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but bottom‑10 in success rate. They lived on explosive plays.
Odds to Win the Division
Eagles +110
Cowboys +235
Commanders +500
Giants +600
1. Philadelphia Eagles –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -125
2025 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.72
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Bears, vs Panthers, vs Steelers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: OC Kevin Patullo, WR AJ Brown, Edge Jaelan Phillips, LB Nakobe Dean, S Reed Blankenship, G Brett Toth, WR Jahan Dotson, DT Brandon Graham, CB Adoree’ Jackson
Key additions: OC Sean Mannion, CB Tariq Woolen, WR Marquise Brown, Edge Arnold Ebiketie
Key Draft Picks: WR Makai Lemon, TE Eli Stowers, T Markel Bell, G Micah Morris
Summary: The Eagles were another team with sky-high expectations coming off a Super Bowl-winning season who quickly pointed the finger at their offensive coordinator. Enter 34-year-old Sean Mannion, fresh out of the womb, to fix the offense. I do like that he comes from the Matt LaFleur tree, but how much did he actually learn in a grand total of two years of coaching? He wasn’t even an offensive coordinator in Green Bay.
That said, I love that they retained defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to keep that side of the ball rolling. Head coach Nick Sirianni is the kind of guy who needs strong coordinators to succeed. What I don’t like is the brutal salary-cap hell that comes with winning a Super Bowl. Losing Nakobe Dean will be rough if Zach Baun and Jihad Campbell can’t stay healthy. The defensive line is still the best in the business, but edge rusher becomes a much bigger question mark with Jaelan Phillips heading to Carolina.
The offense should remain solid with Saquon Barkley leading the way, but when Jalen Hurts is forced to do too much, this team tends to crumble. The offensive line is aging, with Lane Johnson now in his 13th year at right tackle. The best player in the secondary is nickelback and part-time safety Cooper DeJean, and there are a lot of new faces back there.
The good news is the Eagles somewhat lucked out with their schedule—the “at large” games aren’t against the strongest division winners. The bad news? They have the second-worst net rest days in the league at -15, facing four teams coming off their bye weeks. I think the Eagles could regress to just average if they’re not careful.
My Number: 10.36
Action – Lean Under
Philadelphia Power rating: 2.5
2. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 7.5
2025 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 7.1
Schedule: Medium Hard: At large games vs Saints, vs Browns, @ Lions
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DT Dexter Lawrence, WR Wandale Robinson, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, S Dane Belton, C Austin Schlottman, QB Russell Wilson, LB Bobby Okereke, G Greg Van Roten
Key additions: Coach John Harbaugh, TE Isaiah Likely, LB Tremaine Edmonds, DT DJ Reader, CB Greg Newsome, S Ar’Darius Washington, DT Shelby Harris, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Calvin Austin, G Lucas Patrick
Key Draft Picks: LB Arvell Reese, T Francis Mauigoa, CB Colton Hood, WR Malachi Fields
Summary: I could probably write a book on the Giants here, but I’ll do my best to keep it short and sweet. The G-Men were the greatest underachievers of 2025, winning only four games despite a Pythagorean win total over 7. Moving on from Brian Daboll was the right move for this team. Getting John Harbaugh in return was basically hitting the lottery.
I believe John is a fantastic coach, even if he had some quarterback issues come playoff time during his long-tenured stint in Baltimore. The talent on this Giants team has evened out nicely in the division, with Jaxson Dart leading the charge. Wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Cam Skattebo are back healthy, and adding deep threat Darnell Mooney was a smart move. The Dexter Lawrence trade paid real dividends—this team landed a proven offensive lineman along with a huge talent like Arvell Reese at linebacker.
The big distraction with Arvell Reese is that people keep racking their brains trying to figure out if he’s more of an edge guy or a middle linebacker. How about we just use him like Ohio State did—as an impact linebacker who can blitz the quarterback and cover the league’s best tight ends?
I really like how the Giants’ schedule turned out, especially getting the Browns and Saints at large. The Lions might be tough at the end, but that game is so far away that I’m not worried at all. The key to this team’s success will be quarterback Jaxson Dart not taking all those hits he absorbed scrambling last season. John Harbaugh has experience with Lamar Jackson, so I think the kid will learn quickly.
My Number: 8.55
Action – Over 7.5 wins
NY Giants Power Rating: 0
3. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 7.5
Pythagorean Wins: 8
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Ravens*, vs Buccaneers, @ Packers
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Matt Eberflus, Edge Dante Fowler Jr., C Brock Hoffman, LB Logan Wilson, LB Kenneth Murray, S Donovan Wilson, Edge JaDeveon Clowney, Edge Payton Turner
Key additions: DC Christian Parker, Edge Rashan Gary, S Jalen Thompson, CB Decobie Durant, S PJ Locke, DT Otito Ogbonnia, DT Jonathan Bullard
Summary: Now that Matt Eberflus has shown his true colors (in case there was any doubt from Bears fans), the Cowboys really can’t get much worse on defense after ranking 32nd in EPA. Don’t get me wrong—plenty of blame can be handed out. Jerry Jones once again blundered by trading his best player to the Packers. The Cowboys responded by drafting three edge rushers. Seems like a lot. They also traded for Rashan Gary to help fill that void.
All that said, I actually like the Cowboys’ draft. The offense doesn’t need much after ranking 5th in offensive EPA—the focus was rightly on the defense. Adding defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a gamble since he was just a position coach coming from Philadelphia under the Fangio tree, but anything is better than Matt Eberflus.
The big question is whether these draft picks can hit. I do think Caleb Downs is a lock for a big second contract. Over the past few years, Dak Prescott has been paid a lot of money to miss the playoffs. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors—finishing second earned them a very difficult “at large” slate. The good news is the Cowboys received a nice +12 in net rest days, which should help against tougher competition.
This is the year this Dallas team has to prove itself—Jerry isn’t getting any younger. I remain skeptical, but I think they’ll beat up on the bad teams and struggle against the good ones. A little over eight wins feels fair for starters.
My Number: 8.25
Action: No lean
Dallas Power Rating: -1
4. Washington Commanders –
Vegas Win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -120
2025 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.7
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Bengals, vs Falcons, @ Vikings
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OC Kliff Kingsbury, DC Joe Whitt, C Tyler Biadasz, RB Chris Rodriguez, LB Jake Martin, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Marshawn Lattimore, WR Deebo Samuel, LB Bobby Wagner, TE Zach Ertz, Edge Von Miller, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Noah Brown
Key additions: OC David Blough, DC Daronte Jones, Edge Odafe Oweh, TE Chig Okonkwo, LB Leo Chenal, DT Tim Settle, CB Amik Robertson, S Nick Cross, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge Charles Omenihu, RB Rachaad White.
Summary: Going from 12-5 to 5-12, the big story for this team was injuries—Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels missed the majority of the year. That said, even in the six games he did play, the Commanders lost four of them, so we have to dig a little deeper. Let’s face it: the head coach is the problem.
This team cruised through a very easy schedule in 2024, and much of that roster is now gone after years of free agency movement. Star wide receiver Terry McLaurin will be joined by two guys who probably shouldn’t be starting in Luke McCaffrey and rookie Antonio Williams. Their best tight end, Zach Ertz, is gone, with Chig Okonkwo now slotted in at the top spot. The defense is gambling on top draft pick Sonny Styles to lead the way. Maybe that works, but there isn’t much talent around him.
Last season, this defense ranked a putrid 31st in EPA per play. I can’t trust that it gets fixed in just one offseason by signing a bunch of mid-level guys. General Manager Adam Peters and Coach Dan Quinn made a huge mistake firing Kliff Kingsbury—this team was in an impossible situation with all the injuries and that schedule in 2025. I think this year may be the last we see of Dan Quinn as an NFL head coach.
Topuria enters as the heavy favorite thanks to his undefeated record, elite boxing, and dangerous grappling, while Gaethje brings fight‑ending power, relentless pressure, and the kind of durability that makes every second dangerous. Expect a violent, high‑pace fight in the later rounds where Topuria’s accuracy and counters meet Gaethje’s leg kicks, pressure, and brawling instincts.
📌 Fighter Profiles
Ilia Topuria (17‑0, UFC Lightweight Champion)
Elite boxer with sharp counters and tight defensive movement
Former featherweight champion; now undefeated at lightweight
KO power + submission threat (7 KOs, 8 subs)
Coming off a KO win over Charles Oliveira
Enters as a -470 favorite on DraftKings
Justin Gaethje (Interim Lightweight Champion)
One of the most violent fighters in UFC history
Devastating leg kicks, pressure, and brawling style
Coming off a unanimous decision win over Paddy Pimblett (per event previews)
Underdog at +360
🔍 Stylistic Breakdown
Topuria’s Advantages
Superior boxing fundamentals
Faster, more accurate counters
Dangerous grappling if Gaethje overextends
Better defensive responsibility
Gaethje’s Advantages
Leg kicks that can disrupt Topuria’s stance
Pressure that forces exchanges
Proven five‑round cardio in wars
Experience against elite competition
🧠 How the Fight Likely Plays Out
Early Rounds: Topuria will look to counter Gaethje’s entries and punish him for loading up. Gaethje will try to chop the legs early and force Topuria into brawls.
Mid‑Fight: If Gaethje can slow Topuria’s movement with kicks, the fight becomes chaotic — which favors Gaethje. If Topuria maintains distance and timing, he’ll land the cleaner, more damaging shots.
Late Rounds: Gaethje’s durability and pressure could swing momentum, but Topuria’s accuracy and finishing instincts remain a constant threat.
📊 Odds & Context
Fighter
Odds
Key Edge
Guided Link
Ilia Topuria
-470
Precision + grappling
Topuria analysis
Justin Gaethje
+360
Pressure + leg kicks
Gaethje analysis
🔥 Intangibles
Bad blood: Tensions escalated at the press conference, including a shove from Topuria.
Historic venue: First UFC event ever held at the White House.
High stakes: Unification bout + Topuria defending his undefeated record.
🎯 Prediction
I think that Justin Gaethje is being disrespected here. I love the fact that he is from the USA and will fight hard for his country.
In saying that, Ilia Topuria is in his prime at 28 years old. He can win fights in many ways as he is the best technical fighter as well as the best wrestler in the middleweight class.
One big factor here about Justin, is that he has only lost once within the first two rounds in the last five years. He knows what Ilia can bring to the table and will be cautious as he was against Paddy in January.
Ilia will respect Gaethje’s counter grappling attacks and will play the 1st round with caution. I think that Ilia eventually gets to Justin with a submission in the 3rd round, but for now I am going to play it safer and go over 1.5 rounds.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is on vacation in Mexico, and he goes solo to break down the NFC East! First, Kiev talks about how the best betters get the best ROI. Next, we get into the NFC East preview for 2026! What are the divisional odds? Which teams lost a bunch of production? Which teams overachieved from 2025? Which teams have the hardest and the easiest schedules? We answer these questions and much more during the show. We also have a Best Bet! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
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San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray dunks during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019, in San Antonio. Los Angeles won 103-96. (AP Photo/Darren Abate)
The final jewel of the Triple Crown — now with a Derby‑distance twist.
The 158th Belmont Stakes runs today at Saratoga Race Course, the temporary home of the race for the third straight year while Belmont Park completes renovations. The race is shortened to 1¼ miles, matching the Kentucky Derby distance — a major factor in handicapping this year’s field.
There is no Triple Crown on the line, but the storyline is still rich:
Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby winner, seeks a second jewel.
Renegade, the Derby runner‑up, is the 2‑1 favorite and looking for revenge.
A deep group of Derby alumni returns, making this one of the most competitive Belmonts in years.
🐎 Field, Odds & Post Positions
According to the latest board, the nine‑horse field lines up as follows:
Post
Horse
Odds
1
Vitruvian Man
30‑1
2
Powershift
12‑1
3
Chief Wallabee
3‑1
4
Renegade
2‑1 (Favorite)
5
Ottinho
20‑1
6
Growth Equity
12‑1
7
Commandment
6‑1
8
Emerging Market
6‑1
9
Golden Tempo
9‑2
🔍 Top Storylines to Watch
⭐ 1. Renegade’s Redemption Arc
Renegade was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished second to Golden Tempo. He enters the Belmont as the 2‑1 favorite and profiles perfectly for the Derby‑length configuration at Saratoga.
⭐ 2. Golden Tempo Goes for Two
The Derby winner shocked the world at 23‑1, and now he tries to win his second Triple Crown race from the far outside post. His late kick makes him dangerous at 1¼ miles.
⭐ 3. A Deep Derby Rematch
Five Derby runners return:
Golden Tempo (1st)
Renegade (2nd)
Chief Wallabee (4th)
Commandment (7th)
Emerging Market (10th)
This is one of the strongest returning groups in recent Belmont history.
⭐ 4. The Underdog Trend
Underdogs have dominated the Triple Crown season:
Golden Tempo won the Derby at 23‑1
Napoleon Solo won the Preakness at 8‑1
This field is top‑heavy, but recent chaos suggests a longshot could still pop.
🐴 Contenders & Dark Horses
🥇 Renegade (2‑1) — The deserving favorite
Powerful, consistent, and built for this distance. The horse to beat.
🥈 Golden Tempo (9‑2) — The Derby champ
Outside post is tricky, but his closing speed makes him a major threat.
🥉 Chief Wallabee (3‑1) — The steady grinder
Fourth in the Derby and well‑drawn. A logical top‑three pick.
📌 Race Details
Date: Saturday, June 6, 2026
Post Time: 7:04 p.m. ET
Location: Saratoga Race Course
Distance: 1¼ miles
Purse: $2 million
Prediction:
I am coming in hot to fade Golden Tempo today. Maybe he shows, but I think that this race will not have the massive pace that the Kentucky derby did before melting down at the last turn. The horse that I like the most is the favorite in the 4 horse Renegade. The Kentucky Derby did him no favors at the one post and the four will work out much better. I also like the 3 horse Chief Wallabee as he has the speed and enduracne to place in the race. The 7 horse Commandment did nothing wrong minus having a bad race in the Kentucky Derby. His four wins in a row including at Gulfstream at the Florida Derby tell me he will contend. Finally, I have to get on the 8 horse in Emerging Market. Flavian Pratt is a great jockey who had choice of the three Chad Brown horses in this race. My ticket will be exacta heavy with a $2 trifecta for a total of $134
