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We have a great show for you today! Mike North @North2North from Barroom and ESPN 1000 is back to break down a massive week of football! First, Kiev gets into the rest of the bowl games with a quick handicap on each game with some FREE PLAYS! Next, Mike comes on and the guys get right into some baseball and Bears. Then, Mike and Kiev get into the full slate of NFL games with some more plays. After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-5 for the season. Finally, we get into some College and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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The Steelers only out-gained the Bengals 397 to 309 yet won 34-11. A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor explosive plays got the Bengals.
The Panthers out-gained the Packers 394 to 369 yet lost 33-30. Equal turnovers at 0 but 8 penalties got the best of the Panthers.
The Eagles out-gained the Giants 465 to 292 yet only won 33-25. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt the birds.
The 49ers out-gained the Ravens 429 to 343 yet lost 33-19. Now most of that is garbage yards, and the Ravens win anyways, but a nasty 5-0 turnover ratio hurt the gold diggers.
The Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 308 to 205 yet lost 20-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and 4 sacks, and a poor performance by Patrick Mahomes hurt the Chiefs.
We continue to CRUSH this bowl season. We are 10-5 ATS and just getting started my friends. Congratulations to everyone that has been on board so far, and for anyone on the fence about joining the team? Just take a look at our results.
Here’s our updated numbers so far in the 2023-24 Bowl Season! All plays posted here or on Twitter (X).
ATS: 10-5, +2.91 units
Totals: 4-1, +2.8 units
Money Lines: 4-2, +1.17 units
Parlays: 1-3, +0.14 units
Overall: 19-11, +7.02 units
Wednesday, December 27th
Parlay (+475): WVU -6, Louisville -6.5, OK St ML, risk 0.2u=0.95u
2:00pm ET- Tulane vs Virginia Tech: Got bad vibes on this game with all these opt outs on each sideline. 10.5 just seems like way too many points to me for Virginia Tech to be giving up. Complete pass.
NO BET
5:30pm ET- UNC vs WV: Mack Brown is 1-3 in bowl games at UNC, losing as TD favs in 1/3. WV head coach Neal Brown is 4-1 in his career in bowl games, 1-1 at WV. WV missed bowling in 2022, but clawed and fought their way back in 2023. WV QB G. Greene is itching to get back on field and face UNC’s weak defense. Effort means more than talent in this affair; I think we will see a completely flat UNC team, combined with NO DRAKE MAYE for UNC. Mountaineers roll in this match-up.
Play: WVU -6 (-110) to win 1u
8:00pm ET- USC vs Louisville: Star RB Jawhar Jordan and WR Jamari Thrash are key opt outs for Louisville, luckily for the Cardinals they have RB Isaac Guerendo to pick up the pieces and QB Jack Plummer to find other targets. Moral of the story, I don’t think the losses of Jordan and Thrash are going to impact them enough offensively, then throw in how AWFUL the USC defense is, they will score plenty of points. The USC defense ranks at the bottom of the country in just about every statistical category. Speaking of opt outs, for starters Caleb Williams is done, onto the pros. RB MarShawn Lloyd and top two targets Rice and Williams also out. The Trojans will turn to Miller Moss to get his “shot”, unfortunately for him, he will be without his star power and have to face a Cardinals defense who were ferocious in 2023. Who gave up 5.1 yards per play this season ranking them 28th in the nation. Now for Louisville, they have 8 opt outs defensively, but only two will impact the starting lineup. Look for Brohm, Plummer and the Cardinal defense to roll in the Holiday Bowl! 6.5/7 points, not a problem.
Play: Louisville -6.5 (-110) to win 1.5u
9:00pm ET- OK St vs Texas A+M: Mike Gundy takes his Cowboys south to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl. What appeared to be one of the worst seasons I can remember for the Cowboys in quite some time, turned around quickly when OK St QB Alan Bowman got put into the line-up September 23rd vs Iowa St. What ended up being a 7-point road loss to a 7-win ISU squad was just the start for an offense that would end up rolling! Averaging 32 points a game, 282 pass yards per game, an RB in Ollie Gordon who was on the Heisman watch for quite some time and going 7-3 in those 10 games earning themselves a shot in the Big 12 Championship only go get overpowered by CFP strong contender Texas. If you throw out the conference championship, this team brought their ‘A’ game each and every week other than the letdown versus UCF. They landed a vulnerable SEC team who fired Jimbo Fisher just weeks before seasons end and bring in former Duke HC Mike Elko. While Elko has every intention of turning this program around, don’t think for one second it will be overnight. An offense that struggled to score consistently this year will be the greatest issue in this year’s bowl game. In their 7 wins in 2023, only 1 is bowl eligible, the rest are 5-win teams or less. Facing a hungry, pesky Cowboy team will be a problem with a HC that knows how to win in Dec/Jan. Gundy 11-6 in his career SU and 6-2 in his L8. While going 7-1 ATS, and 3 of the 6 wins as underdogs. Let’s back Mike Gundy’s Cowboys to win outright in the Texas Bowl.
Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech -10.5 O/U 44.5 Location: Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Tulane’s Motivation: Medium – They lost the AAC championship game, but they at least get to play a Power 5 team.
Virginia Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great bowl game but they will be happy to play in one again. It’s been a minute.
Home: A little for Virginia Tech as alumni should be lurking. 1 point.
Key Guys Missing:
Virginia Tech:
TE Dae’Quan Wright (431 snaps)
Tulane:
Head coach Willie Fritz has taken the HC job at Houston.
Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle, defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, defensive line coach Gerald Chapman, wide receivers coach Derrick Sherman and analyst James Ross (promoted to inside linebackers coach) will all follow Fritz to Houston but will coach in the bowl game.
Troy head coach Jon Sumrall will replace Fritz as Tulane’s head coach.
Starting WR Chris Brazzell (616 snaps) to transfer.
Starting S DJ Douglas (652 snaps) to transfer.
Starting EDGE Devean Deal (488 snaps) to transfer.
Starting EDGE Keith Cooper Jr. (599 snaps) to transfer.
Starting TE Alex Bauman (656 snaps) to transfer.
Backup QB Kai Horton (150 snaps) to transfer.
Quarterback Michael Pratt (706 snaps) could hit the portal as well, which would likely leave Justin Ibieta (6 snaps) as the starter if Horton also doesn’t play.
Recent injurie to WR Lawrence Keys III (440 snaps).
Net YPP: Tulane +.02
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Virginia Tech Offense
5.91 (52)
4.7 (35)
138.07 (61)
Tulane Defense
5.11 (29)
3.08 (9)
127.43 (50)
Tulane Offense
5.86 (55)
4.13 (84)
151.98 (24)
Virginia Tech Defense
5.18 (35)
4.2 (69)
127.53 (51)
Key Stats: Nothing more key than all of the transfers.
Coach Bowl ATS:
None
Verdict: It’s hard to put a real number on this. Tulane just has way too many transfers as well as backup coaches. Not that Virginia Tech is full of juggernauts, but I have no problem waiting on this one or sitting it out.
Play: Lean Virginia Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs North Carolina +6.5 O/U 54 Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
West Virginia’s Motivation: High – This team did well this year and I expect them to put up a plethora of points.
North Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – Will Drake May even Play? (see what I did there?)
Home: UNC is only 140 Miles from Charlotte compared to 375 for West Virginia.
Key Guys Missing:
North Carolina:
Transfer Portal
TE Kamari Morales (327 snaps)
CB Tayon Holloway (349 snaps)
DB D.J. Jones (198 snaps; will still play in bowl)
NFL Draft
Starting QB Drake Maye (909 snaps)
Backup Conner Harrell (21 snaps) will start.
Starting LB Cedric Gray (880 snaps)
Starting C Corey Gaynor (912 snaps)
Starting WR Tez Walker (534 snaps)
Injuries
Starting TE John Copenhaver (513 snaps)
Starting WR Bryson Nesbit (500 snaps)
Starting CB Alijah Huzzie (727 snaps)
S Will Hardy (246 snaps)
Starting WR Nate McCollum (368 snaps) also didn’t play in the finale with a lower-body injury.
All players listed above will miss North Carolina’s bowl game with injuries.
West Virginia:
DL Mike Lockhart (409 snaps)
WR Devin Carter (483 snaps) played only four snaps in the finale against Baylor is injured.
C Zach Frazier (806 snaps), one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft, will miss the bowl following surgery.
Net YPP: UNC +.89
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
West Virginia Offense
6.24 (36)
5.26 (12)
134.27 (68)
North Carolina Defense
5.52 (64)
4.13 (64)
132.11 (66)
North Carolina Offense
6.79 (11)
5.18 (16)
149.6 (32)
West Virginia Defense
5.85 (88)
4.35 (83)
138.28 (84)
Key Stats: Nothing more Key than Drake Maye and a ton of guys leaving the team early.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Mack Brown, North Carolina: 2-2 (at North Carolina)
Neal Brown, West Virginia: 2-2-1
Verdict: West Virginia gets lucky to face backup QB Graham Conner Harrell, but we really do not know how good he is. Lots of big names opting out for the draft, but I still think UNC an run the ball some. I kinda like the over here. West Virginia knows how to pile on the points while their defense is pretty suspect. UNC Should have enough guys left to ball some on offense
Play: Over 54
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC +7 O/U 59 Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California Time: 8 p.m. ET TV Channel: FOX
Louisville’s Motivation: High – Every team wants to beat USC’s ass.
USC’s Motivation: Low – Nothing ventured, nothing gained. This team actually thought they had playoff chances.
Home: USC gets a little bump for home field in San Diego which is about a 2 hour drive south.
Key Guys Missing
Louisville:
S Josh Minkins (227 snaps) to transfer.
EDGE Kameron Wilson (197 snaps) to transfer.
RB Jawhar Jordan (will miss bowl) and enter draft.
WR Jamari Thrash (will miss bowl) and enter draft.
USC:
DL De’jon Benton (223 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 10)
Starting QB Caleb Williams (761 snaps) to hold out.
Expect Miller Moss and/or Malachi Nelson to start.
RB MarShawn Lloyd (398 snaps) to hold out.
WR Brenden Rice (469 snaps) to hold out.
Watch for S Calen Bullock (845 snaps)
Starting RG/RT Jarrett Kingston (668 snaps) missed the finale with an injury.
Net YPP: Louisville +.01
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Louisville Offense
6.26 (35)
4.67 (38)
146.23 (41)
USC Defense
6.17 (113)
4.78 (110)
150.9 (122)
USC Offense
7.31 (3)
4.9 (27)
167.21 (7)
Louisville Defense
5.1 (28)
3.32 (19)
120.39 (23)
Key Stats: USC’s defense ranks 115th in drop-back EPA so they can’t stop that either.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Jeff Brohm, Louisville: 4-2
Lincoln Riley, USC: 2-3
Verdict: The real question is, how good is the backup quarterbacks? Nobody really knows. I am also a little surprised by now to not see more holdouts for USC. Louisville should be able to move the ball here at will from both a rushing and a passing perspective. One thing you have to respect is the talent on this USC roster. I am going to wait to see if this number gets any better before I make a play.
Play: Lean Louisville -7
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M -2 O/U 53 Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Oklahoma State’s Motivation: Medium High – I think they want to try and beat an SEC team.
Texas A&M’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great bowl but they are rebuilding for next year with a new coach in Mike Elko.
Home: Texas A&M is only 95 miles away. Give them 2.5
Key Guys Missing:
Texas A&M:
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has been fired.
Texas A&M AD Ross Bjork said Elijah Robinson (recently hired as Syracuse DC) will continue to serve as the interim head coach through the bowl game.
QB Max Johnson (North Carolina; expect third-string Jaylen Henderson to start again)
Transfers:
Starting RT Chase Bisontis (544 snaps)
Starting EDGE Fadil Diggs (466 snaps)
Starting S Bryce Anderson (545 snaps)
Starting DL Walter Nolen (365 snaps)
Starting CB Tyreek Chappell (488 snaps)
Starting CB Deuce Harmon (394 snaps)
Starting WR Ainias Smith (559 snaps)
Starting WR Evan Stewart (403 snaps)
Starting LB Edgerrin Cooper (609 snaps)
Starting DT McKinnley Jackson (430 snaps)
Starting RG Layden Robinson (691 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
C Bryce Foster (753 snaps)
WR Moose Muhammad (347 snaps)
Oklahoma State:
WR Blaine Green (193 snaps) to transfer.
WR Jaden Bray (485 snaps) to transfer.
Net YPP: Texas A&M +1.48
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Oklahoma State Offense
5.82 (59)
4.86 (31)
119.68 (106)
Texas A&M Defense
5.01 (25)
3.27 (17)
131.42 (63)
Texas A&M Offense
5.89 (54)
3.94 (92)
148 (36)
Oklahoma State Defense
6.41 (121)
4.64 (100)
148.35 (114)
Key Stats: Nothing is more damning than the number of kids opting out for Texas A&M.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: 10-7
Verdict: So why is this spread so small? Well a couple of things. Oklahoma State was a bunch of frauds this year and overachieved the most out of any school. Next, Jaylen Henderson who is the 3rd string quarterback for A&M is probably better than starter Max Johnson, and finally, this is a home game for the Aggies. Even with all of the factors favoring A&M, I am still very concerned for their performance here. This might be an audition to the top rated athletes that are left, or they might not take it seriously at all. Mike Gundy will have his kids fired up here for sure after that performance vs Texas. I think a small play on the Pokes is ok.
Play: Oklahoma State +2
Thursday, Dec. 28
Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College +10 O/U 49 Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts Time: 11 a.m. TV Channel; ESPN
SMU’s motivation: Medium Low – They deserved a much better bowl than this.
Boston College’s Motivation: Medium High – Literally staying at home, but they haven’t went bowling in a while.
Home: Boston College is playing pretty much at home here.
Key Guys Missing:
SMU:
SMU QB Preston Stone is out for the year. Kevin Jennings will start again.
Boston College:
Starting S Cole Watson (544 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11.
Stud starting CB Elijah Jones (524 snaps) was lost to a season-ending injury suffered in Week 10.
Starting CB Jalen Cheek (367 snaps) didn’t play in the finale.
BC previously lost offensive starters WR Ryan O’Keefe (204 snaps) and TE George Takacs (421 snaps) to season-ending injuries
Net YPP: SMU +2.08
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
SMU Offense
6.43 (26)
4.48 (53)
156.08 (18)
Boston College Defense
6.55 (124)
5.39 (129)
144.29 (105)
Boston College Offense
5.41 (83)
4.59 (42)
118.71 (109)
SMU Defense
4.49 (7)
3.16 (12)
116.04 (13)
Key Stats: Boston College ranks 129th in defensive EPA
Bowl Coach ATS:
Rhett Lashlee, SMU: 0-1
Verdict: Boston college should be toast here. I know that SMU lost their quarterback, but backup Kevin Jennings looked just fine vs Tulane in the AAC Championship. We just have to hope he doesn’t throw a few picks as he did that game. SMU should be able to name the final score here. Take the Mustangs, but you might get a better number based on home field for BC. Wait it out some.
Play: SMU -10 or better
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami (Fla.) +1 O/U 40.5 Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York Time: 2:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Rutger’s motivation: High – Good opponent and and close to home.
Miami’s motivation: Medium Low – When is this team ever motivated?
Home: Rutger’s back yard only 47 miles away!
Key Guys Missing:
Rutgers:
Starting TE Johnny Langan (558 snaps) will have season-ending surgery.
Starting LB Tyreem Powell (371 snaps) lost to injury after Week 8.
Star CB Max Melton (622 snaps) heads to the draft.
Miami:
Starting QB Tyler Van Dyke (660 snaps; confirmed to Wisconsin)
WR Colbie Young (599 snaps) to transfer.
EDGE Jahfari Harvey (313 snaps) to transfer.
LB Corey Flagg (392 snaps) to transfer.
Expect Jacurri Brown to start at QB with backup Emory Williams injured.
Starting CB Daryl Porter Jr. (447 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 10.
S Kamren Kinchens (638 snaps) to draft.
DT Leonard Taylor (341 snaps) to draft.
S James Williams (730 snaps) to draft.
It’s also worth monitoring OL Javion Cohen (771 snaps).
Net YPP: Miami +1.39
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Rutgers Offense
4.91 (118)
4.21 (79)
105.8 (127)
Miami (Florida) Defense
5.2 (37)
3.17 (13)
124.84 (38)
Miami (Florida) Offense
6.51 (22)
5.2 (15)
142.26 (50)
Rutgers Defense
4.99 (23)
4.01 (58)
121 (27)
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than all of the dudes gone for Miami.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Greg Schiano, Rutgers: 5-2
Mario Cristobal: 2-4-1
Verdict: As Bad as Rutgers is at football, there are many reasons to back this team. First of all, the coaching ATS favors the Scarlet Knights, number two is that this is basically a home game for Rutgers right in their back yards, and number three, there are just way too many guys sitting out for Miami. Get this one quick before the line gets out of hand.
Play: Rutgers +1
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State -2.5 O/U 47.5 Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 5:45 p.m. Channel: ESPN
NC State’s Motivation: High – Great opponent in a great location
Kansas State’s Motivation: Medium – They had higher aspirations this year. Should have not choked against Missouri.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
NC State:
Transfers:
QB MJ Morris (didn’t play after Week 10)
Brennan Armstrong should start
RB Michael Allen (190 snaps)
WR Terrell Timmons (216 snaps)
WR Porter Rooks (286 snaps)
C/LG Lyndon Cooper (311 snaps; lost job midway through season)
Starting NT CJ Clark (451 snaps)
Kansas State:
Transfer Portal
Starting QB Will Howard; expect Avery Johnson to start
RB Treshaun Ward (332 snaps)
Starting S Kobe Savage (711 snaps)
Starting CB Will Lee (453 snaps)
EDGE Nate Matlack (324 snaps)
Offensive coordinator Collin Klein has accepted the OC job at Texas A&M.
Opt-Outs
WR Phillip Brooks (756 snaps)
TE Ben Sinnott (769 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
OG Cooper Beebee (870 snaps)
Injuries
Starting DT Uso Seumalo (413 snaps) was on crutches for the finale. As a result, Damian Ilalio (157 snaps) saw an increase in playing time.
LB Jake Clifton (227 snaps) was lost for the season in Week 11 after Kansas State already lost starting middle linebacker Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom early in the season to injuries.
Net YPP: Kansas State +.31
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
North Carolina State Offense
5.23 (100)
4.04 (87)
128.2 (84)
Kansas State Defense
5.7 (75)
4.55 (92)
120.74 (25)
Kansas State Offense
6.03 (48)
4.86 (30)
142.98 (47)
North Carolina State Defense
5.33 (50)
3.71 (34)
120.49 (24)
Key Stats: None
Coach Bowl ATS:
Dave Doeren, North Carolina State: 5-3
Chris Klieman, Kansas State: 1-2
Verdict: I think that this bowl is an absolute mess. Lots of opt outs and lots of questions at quarterback. In saying that, I think Dave Doeren is the safer bet in this bowl but there is no reason to rush into this. Gonna lean NC State due to the experience at quarterback with Brennan Armstrong at the helm, but I also don’t need to rush into anything.
Play: Lean NC State +2.5
Alamo Bowl: No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 12 Oklahoma +3 O/U 62 Location: The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas Time: 9:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Arizona’s Motivation: High – Hell yes! Getting to a bowl game and facing Oklahoma is great for this School.
Oklahoma’s Motivation: Low – This team was thinking playoffs until they blew it vs their in state rival.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Arizona:
Stud LT Jordan Morgan (787 snaps)
Oklahoma:
Transfers:
OC Jeff Lebby took the head-coaching job at Mississippi State.
RB Marcus Major (215 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
LG Cayden Green (568 snaps)
DB Key Lawrence (398 snaps; played less late in year)
Injuries
Lost top receiver Andreel Anthony (215 snaps) to season-ending injury after Week 6.
Opt-Outs
OT Tyler Guyton (663 snaps)
C Andrew Raym (874 snaps)
Net YPP: Arizona +.19
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Arizona Offense
6.82 (10)
4.8 (33)
166 (8)
Oklahoma Defense
5.37 (56)
4.08 (60)
115.57 (12)
Oklahoma Offense
6.74 (13)
4.45 (55)
172.06 (4)
Arizona Defense
5.27 (42)
3.44 (25)
127.41 (48)
Key Stats: Losing OC Jeff Lebby and QB Dillon Gabriel is big.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Jedd Fisch, Arizona: 0-1
Brent Venables, Oklahoma: 1-0
Verdict: The motivation should be much larger for Arizona as they get to face a former top 4 team and national championship contender. Add in the fact that the starting quarterback and OC is gone for the Sooners. I will say that Sooner QB Jackson Arnold was a very high recruit and might have beaten Gabriel out for the starting position for 2024 had Gabriel stayed anyways. Oklahoma lost some guys but they still have more Talent than AZ. I would lay three max.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into some college football bowls for December 27th – 28th. After that, we get into some NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for NFL Week 17. Finally, Kiev talks some fantasy football Week 17 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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2:00pm ET- Bowling Green vs Minnesota: My issue here is Bowling Green does not have a strong run game; an area Minnesota got destroyed in to end the 2023 campaign. With injuries and the transfer portal, they will be down to their 3rd, 4th, and 5th string RB’s. Minnesota got gifted an opportunity at a bowl win, while winning only 5 games in 2023. So, this game flat out comes down too, who wants it more? Minnesota HC P. J. Fleck is 4-0 SU their last 4 bowl games, so it does appear he has his boys ready to play. The Gophers will turn to 5-year back up QB Cole Kremer with Kaliakmanis in the transfer portal. Kind of reminds me of a Rudy the movie type of moment. I mean the kid has 14 career pass attempts in FIVE YEARS. The rest of this Golden Gopher team will be balls to the wall for a victory.
Play: Minnesota -2.5 (-110) to win 0.75u
5:30pm ET- Rice vs Texas St: Texas St QB TJ Finley versus Rice QB AJ Padgett. Finley holds a tremendous advantage over Padgett. Besides ability and flat-out skill content, he has on his sideline HC G.J. Kinne an offensive and QB guru. Hence Finley’s obnoxious stats in 2023. Finley threw for 3,287 yards, 24 touchdowns and 8 INT’s. Luckily for him Rice ranks 130th in INTs per game. Rice might have a small advantage defensively, but both Ds struggled mightily in 2023. For me the difference is Texas St’s ability to create turnovers, while Rice just flat out does not. Rice crawled into bowl eligibility late, with 2 wins versus Charlotte and FAU. Like last year they really don’t belong playing in December so look for Texas St to score and score often in the First Responder Bowl. For those that don’t know, this game is played in Dallas Texas where the Cotton Bowl will be played. Weather will not be a factor. Look for Finley and Kinne to light up the scoreboard! Let’s lay the 3.5 points and back their team total OVER!
Play(s): Texas St -3.5 (-110) to win 1u, Texas St Team Total over 31.5 (-115) to win 1.5u
9:00pm ET- UNLV vs Kansas: Points, points, points. Playing indoors in Arizona I believe will turn this into a track meet fairly quickly, similarly to last year’s bowl game between KU and Arkansas. UNLV will make their first postseason appearance since 2013, and Kansas will play their second bowl game in program history. Losing in triple OT last season versus Arkansas. KU QB Jason Bean will get his shot this year after backing up Daniels in 2022. He will face a UNLV defense who struggles with running QB’s, which could lead to big plays and quick TD’s. Rebel freshman J. Maiva will face a Jayhawk defense who had plenty of struggles stopping the pass in 2023. Back the over, for SU pools take KU.
