ALL information and spreads subject to change!
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs Georgia Southern -3.5 O/U 48.5
Location: Brooks Stadium Conway, South Carolina
Start Time: 11 a.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
Ohio Motivation – Medium Low – I personally would rather party in Myrtle Beach rather than win a meaningless bowl game.
Georgia Southern Motivation – Medium High – Not new for Georgia folks to be by the Ocean. I will say that Clay Helton isn’t good at bowl games being 1-5 ATS.
Home: None
Key Guy’s missing:
Ohio:
- Starting QB Kurtis Rourke
- Starting WR Miles Cross (617 snaps)
- Starting RB Sieh Bangura (483 snaps)
- Backup RB O’Shaan Allison (335 snaps)
Georgia Southern:
- None
Net YPP: Ohio +.87
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| Ohio Offense | 5.18 (103) | 3.75 (104) | 128.56 (82) |
|
Georgia Southern Defense
|
6.09 (105) | 4.57 (93) | 137.04 (83) |
|
Georgia Southern Offense
|
5.69 (70) | 4.19 (80) | 128.94 (80) |
| Ohio Defense | 4.7 (11) | 3.34 (20) | 117.38 (14) |
Key Stats: There is nothing more key than Kurtis Rourke possibly not playing this game.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Georgia Southern, Clay Helton: 1-5
- Tim Albin, Ohio: 1-0
Verdict: With backup QB CJ Harris out, I have no idea how good Parker Navarro is in case Rourke doesn’t play. If he is out then slam the under if you get it on time.
Play: Lean under if Rourke is out and lean Ohio if he is in.
New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana +2.5 O/U 59
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 2:15 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
Jacksonville State Motivation: Medium – I would assume the kids want to play their first bowl game but Rich Rodriguez is a horrible 2-9 ATS.
Louisiana Motivation: Medium – Not the best situation staying close to home.
Home: Louisiana is only 138 miles away while Jacksonville State is over 400.
Key guys missing:
Jacksonville State:
- Starting CB Jabari Mack injured and hasn’t played since Week 8.
- Stud EDGE Jaylen Swain injured and didn’t play in the regular-season finale.
Louisiana:
- Starting LB Kendré Gant is transferring.
Net YPP: Louisiana +.51
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
|
Jacksonville State Offense
|
5.38 (86) | 4.86 (29) | 110.23 (121) |
|
Louisiana-Lafayette Defense
|
5.26 (41) | 3.85 (42) | 137.01 (82) |
|
Louisiana-Lafayette Offense
|
6.27 (35) | 5.05 (20) | 148.97 (35) |
|
Jacksonville State Defense
|
4.88 (15) | 2.8 (4) | 125.47 (38) |
Key Stats: Jacksonville State doesn’t turn the ball much while Louisiana fumbles the ball a heck of a lot.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Rich Rodriguez, Jacksonville State: 2-9
- Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana: 1-1
Verdict: Rich Rodriguez loves to run the football but he also plays very fast. If Louisiana can stop the run, they should be able to win this game. Louisiana will find some success passing the ball here.
Play: Lean Louisiana
Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State -6.5 O/U 43
Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Channel: ABC
Miami Ohio’s Motivation: Medium High – Cold weather team in warm weather but Chuck Martin is 4-0 in bowl games.
Appalachian State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I think the Kids will want a vacation from the hillbillies.
Home: None
Key guys missing:
Miami Oh
- QB Aveon Smith to transfer and QB Brett Gabbert still injured.
App State
- WR Dashuan Davis
Net YPP: Miami .41
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| Miami (Ohio) Offense | 5.78 (61) | 4.4 (62) | 137.33 (64) |
|
Appalachian State Defense
|
5.82 (85) | 5.03 (119) | 122.18 (27) |
|
Appalachian State Offense
|
6.27 (36) | 4.53 (50) | 154.59 (19) |
| Miami (Ohio) Defense | 4.93 (17) | 3.58 (28) | 118.85 (18) |
Key Stats: Miami Oh is number 5 in explosive plays while App State ranks 71st in giving them up.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio): 4-0
- Shawn Clark, Appalachian State: 1-2
Verdict: Not knowing if Aveon Smith is playing is rough, but Miami Oh has the much better defense here. You also can’t ignore Chuck Martin’s 4-0 bowl ATS. I also see Miami Oh moving the ball on the ground here. I will probably be on Miami Oh sometime soon even with lower motivation but I would just want to hear about the QB situation.
Play: Miami Oh +6.5 but maybe wait for a 7
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs Fresno State +4 O/U 51
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Time: 5:45 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
New Mexico State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I feel that NMSU wanted a better bowl game rather than having to stay home.
Fresno State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Might be best to go and visit where Breaking Bad was filmed rather than play in this awful destination of a bowl game.
Home: Full advantage for New Mexico State being that Alumni live there.
Key Guys Missing:
New Mexico State:
- None
Fresno State:
- Coach Jeff Tedford out with medical issues
- Starting LT Jacob Spomer injured and was lost for the season.
- Starting DT Gavriel Lightfoot was limited to only four snaps over the final two games.
Net YPP: New Mexico State +.94
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
|
New Mexico State Offense
|
6.98 (9) | 5.79 (4) | 152.94 (24) |
| Fresno State Defense | 5.49 (58) | 4.35 (81) | 122.37 (28) |
| Fresno State Offense | 5.54 (76) | 3.67 (107) | 135.17 (67) |
|
New Mexico State Defense
|
5.99 (97) | 4.41 (83) | 136.42 (81) |
Key Stats: None
Bowl Coaching ATS:
- Jerry Kill, New Mexico State: 2-5
Verdict: New Mexico State will have the rushing advantage here but as you saw against Liberty, this team can also give up plenty of yards on the ground. I think that Fresno State had a blow off type year after winning it all last year. With Tedford out, that has to be worth something. I’ll take the Aggies and hope Kill doesn’t kill the cover for me.
Lean: NM State -3.5
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State +3.5 O/U 48.5
Location: SOFI Stadium, Inglewood, California
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Channel: ABC
UCLA’s Motivation: Medium High – No travel but this might be more business and playing at home helps.
Boise State’s Motivation: Medium – They accomplished their goals to win MW and might not care as much to play UCLA.
Home: UCLA is in their city but there will be Boise State folks there. I would say 1.5 points of advantage.
Key Guys Missing:
Boise State:
- Starting QB Taylen Green to transfer
- EDGE Kivon Wright to transfer
- Starting WR Stefan Cobbs hasn’t played since Week 10 due to injury
- Other QB Maddux Madsen out for the season
UCLA:
- QB Dante Moore transfer
- WR Kam Brown (332 snaps; hasn’t played since week 9) will transfer
- TE Carsen Ryan (365 snaps) will transfer
- S William Nimmo (345 snaps) will transfer
- DB Kamari Ramsey (one INT, four PBUs) will transfer
Net YPP: UCLA .51
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| UCLA Offense | 5.78 (63) | 4.67 (39) | 128.33 (84) |
| Boise State Defense | 5.9 (92) | 3.87 (47) | 134.11 (76) |
| Boise State Offense | 6.61 (16) | 5.34 (10) | 141.42 (51) |
| UCLA Defense | 4.55 (8) | 2.33 (3) | 120.52 (24) |
Key Stats: Boise State allows explosive plays ranking 113th on defense.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
- Chip Kelly, UCLA: 2-3 (UCLA only)
- Spencer Danielson: None
Verdict: Both teams are missing some guys but none more important than Boise State being without both quarterbacks. The Broncos could start true Freshman CJ Tlller but he has 0 experience. Take UCLA here being that Chase Garbers should start who has plenty of regular season playing time.
Play: UCLA -4
Independence Bowl: Cal vs Texas Tech -3 O/U 56.5
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Time: 9:15 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: High – Cal hasn’t been to a bowl in a while and they should come to play.
Texas Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Hard to tell with this team.
Home: None – Nobody is driving over 500 miles for this game.
Key Guys Missing:
Cal
- OL Brayden Rohme (105 snaps; started a few games) is transferring.
- LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (700 snaps; leading tackler) is transferring.
- CB Jeremiah Earby (447 snaps) is transferring.
- Cal starting linebacer Jackson Sirmon was lost for the season after Week 6.
Texas Tech
- QB Tyler Shough (not starting at end of year) will transfer.
- Starting WR Myles Price (438 snaps) will transfer.
- Starting WR Jerand Bradley (613 snaps) will transfer.
- Starting LT Monroe Mills (894 snaps, two sacks allowed) will transfer.
- Stud starting DT Jaylon Hutchings had surgery and will miss the bowl (491 snaps).
- Starters S Tyler Owens and DE Steve Linton missed time at the end of the regular-season with injuries.
- Starting LG Cole Spencer hasn’t played since Week 5 due to a toe injury
Net YPP: California + .19
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| California Offense | 5.48 (80) | 4.67 (37) | 123.59 (94) |
| Texas Tech Defense | 5.51 (62) | 4.49 (90) | 122.63 (29) |
| Texas Tech Offense | 5.38 (84) | 4.55 (46) | 120.94 (104) |
| California Defense | 5.81 (83) | 3.84 (40) | 142.73 (102) |
Key Stats: Cal is very bad against the pass ranking 123rd in opponent passing success rate.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
- Justin Wilcox, Cal: 1-1
- Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: 1-0
Verdict: I could see a very close game here as the spread implies. My power ratings favor Texas Tech but they have more kids opting out. I also see more motivation for Cal. I will probably be on the sidelines for this one.
Play: Lean Under
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky +2.5 O/U 54.5
Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great matchup but I could see motivation.
Old Dominion’s Motivation: High – Western Kentucky is a bigger name to beat.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Western Kentucky
- Stud starting LG Quantavious Leslie (two-time first-team CUSA; 787 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting C Vincent Murphy (822 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting RT Wes Dorsey (678 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting CB Upton Stout (418 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting LB Desmyn Baker (472 snaps) to transfer.
Old Dominion
- WR Javon Harvey (431 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting S Terry Jones (743 snaps; 107 tackles this season) to transfer.
- DE Devin Brandt-Epps (245 snaps) to transfer.
- Starting P Ethan Duane to transfer.
- Star LB Jason Henderson (861 snaps; nation’s leading tackler) is injured.
Net YPP: Old Dominion +.05
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
|
Western Kentucky Offense
|
5.9 (53) | 4.03 (89) | 139.78 (56) |
| Old Dominion Defense | 5.22 (39) | 3.58 (29) | 140.06 (93) |
| Old Dominion Offense | 5.38 (85) | 4.06 (87) | 128.63 (81) |
|
Western Kentucky Defense
|
5.8 (82) | 4.76 (109) | 125.78 (41) |
Key Stats: Both teams play at fast tempos with Old Dominion ranking 9th and Western Kentucky ranking 33rd.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
- Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky: 2-1
Verdict: I think Old Dominion gets the best of the Hill-toppers. The motivation will be there as well as the running game. I also have the Monarchs slightly higher in my power ratings. I also think the O-line issues with the Hill Toppers will be huge.
Play: Old Dominion -2.5
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA -12.5 O/U 52.5
Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
Marshall’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not sure what there is to do in Frisco, but It has to be better than West Virginia.
UTSA’s Motivation: Medium High – I think they might want to put one on a former rival like Marshall.
Home: Slight to UTSA yet 300 miles away.
Key Guys Missing:
Marshall
- Starting QB Cam Fancher to transfer.
- QB Cole Pennington now set to start.
- Marshall C/G anchor Trent Holler (725 snaps) to miss.
- Starting S J.J. Roberts (581 snaps) missed the final two games due to injury.
UTSA:
- AAC Defensive Player of the Year EDGE Trey Moore (502 snaps) to miss game.
Net YPP: UTSA +.77
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| Marshall Offense | 5.3 (94) | 3.85 (98) | 123.44 (95) |
| UTSA Defense | 5.16 (32) | 3.75 (37) | 123.71 (34) |
| UTSA Offense | 5.72 (68) | 4.42 (60) | 137.75 (61) |
| Marshall Defense | 5.51 (61) | 4.43 (85) | 126.17 (46) |
Key Stats: UTSA ranks 23rd in explosiveness while Marshall is 125th against explosive plays.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
- Jeff Traylor, UTSA: 1-2
- Charles Huff, Marshall: 1-1
Verdict: UTSA should win this game easily, but it had gotten too expensive for my blood. Both teams play at a pretty fast pace. 47th for Marshall and 18th for UTSA. I kinda like their TT over and might take a stab at that later.
Play: Lean UTSA TT over 32.5 ish
Thursday, Dec. 21
Boca Raton Bowl: USF vs. Syracuse -3 O/U 61
Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Channel: ESPN
USF’s Motivation: High – Get to beat a power 5 school?
Syracuse’s Motivation: Medium – TBD if new coach Fran Brown will be there.
Home: USF should have more fans. However, I doubt the stadium fills up much.
Key Guys Missing:
South Florida
- Starting LG Andrew Kilfoyl didn’t play the final few games, while starting RG Zane Herring left the regular-season finale with an injury.
- Starting OLB Lloyd Summerall left the team after Week 10
Syracuse
- Head coach Dino Babers has been fired (Nunzio Campanile to serve as interim head coach).
- Texas A&M’s Elijah Robinson hired as defensive coordinator.
- Starting EDGE Leon Lowery Jr. (523 snaps) will transfer.
- CB Jeremiah Wilson (285 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8) will transfer.
Net YPP: Syracuse + .79
Basic Stats:
| Yard /Play | Yard per Rush | QBR | |
| Syracuse Offense | 5.52 (79) | 4.55 (47) | 132.59 (71) |
| South Florida Defense | 6.34 (119) | 4.41 (84) | 145.78 (110) |
| South Florida Offense | 5.73 (67) | 4.13 (83) | 142.69 (48) |
| Syracuse Defense | 5.34 (52) | 3.87 (46) | 132.36 (67) |
Key Stats: South Florida ranks dead last in giving up explosive plays. SOS favors Syracuse 69th to 122nd for USF.
Bowl Coach ATS:
None
Verdict: I know coach Babers is out, but this might be one that Syracuse should cover even as an away game. There are really no advantages here for South Florida and the strength of schedule is immense. USF also gets sacked a ton.
Play: Syracuse -3 but wait to make sure nobody holds out.
