Klay Thompson, GSW over 2.5 assists (+108) Fanduel
Klay has gone over this number the last three times facing the Hawks.
he has gone over this number 7/10 times.
At home, Klay has gone over 55% of the time he has played at home.
Bogdon Bogdanovic, ATL under 3.5 3 ptm (-130) Fanduel
Bogdon has only gone over 3.5 32% of his games, on the road as well.
In both games at Golden State he has gone under.
He has only gone over once in his last 5 games which was on the 7th against ORL.
GSW are 13th in opponents shooting from behind the arc.
Best of luck to everyone! Fanduel always has their TNT no risk promotion, so parlay these together at your own risk as you can find these lines on there as well. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG at sign up! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -140, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!
We have nine games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Dallas Stars: 27-13-6, 3rd Central (13-5-4 Away)
Detroit Red Wings: 24-17-5, 4th Atlantic (12-7-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Dallas Stars
-125
-142
-1.5 (+170)
o6.5 (-108)
Detroit Red Wings
+105
+120
+1.5 (-205)
u6.5 (-112)
Dallas is coming off an overtime loss to the Islanders on Sunday. They outshot the Isles 43 to 28 but only registered 2.67 xGF. Scott Wedgewood finished the game with a -0.22 Goals Saved Above Expected (GASx). This will be the fourth game on a five-game road trip for the Stars. Including that game last night, they’ve gone 1-2 with their only win during that span coming in New Jersey.
After a slow start to the season, Detroit has found its groove. They’ve picked up some impressive wins as of late and have gone 7-2-1 in their last ten games. The goaltender tandem of Alex Lyon and James Reimer has stepped up.
Pick: Dallas Stars in Regulation (+105) – DraftKings
Tampa Bay Lightning: 24-18-5, 5th Atlantic (9-13-2 Away)
Philadelphia Flyers: 25-16-6, 2nd Metropolitan (11-10-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
-110
-108
+1.5 (-265)
o6.5 (+105)
Philadelphia Flyers
-110
-112
-1.5 (+215)
u6.5 (-125)
Tampa Bay’s five-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday as they lost to Detroit 2-1. While the Lightning have had less than ideal first half of the season, they’re only five points behind the Panthers for second place in the Atlantic.
Philadelphia has lost their last two games after putting together five consecutive wins. Colorado beat them 7-4 on Saturday and on Sunday, Ottawa beat them 5-3. In both those games, their goaltending struggled which has been a bright spot for them this season.
Vegas Golden Knights: 27-14-5, 2nd Pacific (9-9-3 Away)
New York Islanders: 20-15-11, 4th Metropolitan (12-5-6 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Vegas Golden Knights
+105
+130
+1.5 (-205)
o6 (+105)
New York Islanders
-125
-155
-1.5 (+170)
u6 (-125)
The Golden Knights enter this game on a three-game winning streak. During that span, they’ve outscored opponents 12-4. Logan Thompson was great in each of those games and has started the last five games for the Golden Knights.
In their first game with their new head coach Patrick Roy, the Islanders defeated the Starts 3-2 in OT. Before that, they had lost four games in a row.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights/ New York Islanders over 5.5 (-120) – FanDuel
Vladimir Tarasenko over 0.5 Points (-110) – BetMGM
Tarasenko has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has three goals and two assists. He’s also gone over this number in three of his last four games at home.
Ottawa currently ranks 10th in goals for per game averaging 3.38.
Montreal currently ranks 27th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.50. On the road, that number jumps to 3.52. They’ve given up an average of 3.90 GA/GP in their last ten games.
Against Montreal, Tarasenko has recorded more than 0.5 points in four of his last five matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Dahlin has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has one goal and four assists. He’s also gone over this number in three of his last four games on the road
Buffalo currently ranks 25th in goals for per game averaging 2.91. On the road, that number jumps to 3.09.
Anaheim currently ranks 26th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.48. They’ve given up an average of 3.80 GA/GP in their last ten games.
Against Anaheim, Dahlin has recorded more than 0.5 points in three of his last four matchups.
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
TCU vs Oklahoma State +4.5 O/U 145
This should be a good under the radar game for tonight. Kyle Hunter turned me on to this one last night on our Monday spaces show. TCU is coming off of two rough losses at Cincinnati and home vs Iowa State after their Houston upset win at home. This is another rough spot for the Horned Frogs. TCU is a pretty good shooting team, but they seem to turn the ball over a bit too much ranking 235th in the league. The Pokes on the other hand have not done two things well. They also turn the ball over ranking 322nd while they can’t seem to shoot free throws. There are not many matchup advantages that Oklahoma State has over TCU, but in saying that, TCU doesn’t score well inside and their three point game should falter some on the road. TCU shoots a nice 56.1% effective FG at home but only 50.8% on the road. Oklahoma State shoots a nice 55.8% at home which gives me confidence backing them as a dog. Oklahoma State is still looking for their first Big 12 win this year and they have had some bad luck ranking 351st on the luck factor on Kenpom. Take the Pokes today at home.
Congrats to all Nick Dunlap backers at The American Express last week if there were any. Based on @GolfTipsChecker‘s weekly recap, no one picked him to win. The past two weeks we’ve been so close to an outright with Byeong Hun An losing in a playoff at the Sony Open and Christiaan Bezuidenhout finishing runner-up at The American Express.
We caught Max Homa at 25-1 last year at the Farmers so hopefully, we can do the same this year!
🚨#AMEX Nick Dunlap creates history!! The first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since 1991 – Incredible scenes!!
Amateur Nick Dunlap became the first amateur to win a PGA TOUR event since Phil Mickelson at the 1991 Northern Telecom Open. He’s the second-youngest winner on TOUR in the last 90 years. The college sophomore at Alabama is the only player to win the U.S. Junior Amateur, the U.S. Amateur, and a PGA TOUR event as an amateur.
Dunlap committed to this week’s event but withdrew on Monday so he will not be in the field at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Max Homa will look to defend his title at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s had success in his home state winning four times in California.
Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk will make their first starts as PGA TOUR members. They both earned their TOUR cards by finishing in the top 10 in the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai in 2023.
Torrey Pines is currently experiencing heavy rainfall at the moment. It’s currently projected to continue until Tuesday afternoon. As for the tournament itself, there is no rainfall in the forecast from Wednesday to Saturday. In the past, we’ve seen wind conditions play a factor, especially on the South Course which is more exposed to the coastline. However, given the projected forecast it doesn’t look like it will impact players too much.
Course/ Tournament History:
The Farmers Insurance Open will take place from Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.
The Farmers Insurance Open originated as the San Diego Open back in 1952. That name would last until 1958 when it was changed to the Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open. In 1992 Buick took over the sponsorship of the tournament and the name was changed to the Buick Invitational until 2009. In 2010 the name was switched to the Farmers Insurance Open and has remained that since then.
During the first few years of the event, the tournament bounced around different courses. However, in 1968 the tournament moved to Torrey Pines where it is currently played. The South Course at Torrey Pines has also hosted the U.S. Open twice in 2008 and most recently in 2021.
62, Jon Rahm (Round 1, 2019), Ryan Palmer (Round 2, 2020), Alex Smalley (Round 2, 2022), Adam Schenk (Round 2, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For the second week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. All golfers will play one round on the North and South course on Wednesday and Thursday. Anyone who has made the cut after that will then play the final two rounds on the South course.
Torrey Pines South Course
The South Course at Torrey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour. Due to its length and complex green designs, it plays as one of the toughest courses. The redesign in 2019 only increased the difficulty of the course with additional bunkers being added. The South course features Poa Annua greens which are notoriously difficult to score on.
The four Par 3’s range from 177 to 227 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par besides No. 8.
No. 3, 201 yards, Par 3: Overlooking La Jolla, South Course’s signature Par 3, is the most picturesque of all the Par 3’s on the course. Club selection is of utmost importance as the hole can play as short as a 9 iron, and as long as a hybrid. Playing downhill, a good tee shot will leave you middle of the green. Avoid going long here as it will leave you a very difficult pitch to get up and down.
No. 16, 227 yards, Par 3: Two teeing grounds will have a dramatic effect on how this hole is played. The shorter tee, to the left, brings two greenside bunkers into play, but players can aim right and ride the prevailing breeze. The front of the green is open from the longer tee, but the wind can complicate the angle.
There are ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 12.
No. 4, 490 yards, Par 4: The second longest of the daunting Par 4’s at Torrey Pines, hole #4 requires a good tee shot that will leave you a long iron or fairway metal into a green protected by a bunker on the left. Play approach to the right of the green to allow the contours of the green complex to feed the ball to the middle of the green. A par here is a good score.
No. 12, 505 yards, Par 4: A generous fairway invites players to be aggressive off the tee. Anything less than a well-struck drive won’t allow this green to be reached in two. The ideal position for those who miss the green is short, since the green, which runs some 35 yards deep, is receptive to uphill chip shots.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 6, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 6 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.39 below par.
No. 13, 621 yards, Par 5: A new tee has been added, back and to the left, calling for a drive of at least 240 yards to carry the canyon. Should players choose to go for the green in two, they will need to carry the second shot some 260 yards as the green is elevated and protected by bunkers and rough in front.
No. 18, 570 yards, Par 5: The closing hole is a great par 5 – basically straight but with a twist in the drive zone – on which anything can happen. Just ask Bruce Devlin. In contention for the 1975 Andy Williams San Diego Open, the Australian took six hacks to get his ball out of the water in front of the green on his way to making a 10. The pond is now called “Devlin’s Billabong”.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Torrey Pines North Course
The North Course is by far the easier course of the two playing roughly 500 yards shorter in terms of distance. There are also no water hazards on the course and has almost half as many bunkers as the South Course. The North Course also features pure bentgrass greens which are different from the South course. This course provides some more opportunities for birdies which players will need to capitalize on to compete this week.
The four Par 3’s range from 202 to 241 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 12, 203 yards, Par 3: Playing downhill and downwind, this Par 3 requires a precise tee shot to carry the canyon. Par is a great score here.
No. 15, 202 yards, Par 3: The signature Par 3 offers players a spectacular view of La Jolla and the Pacific Ocean. Playing downhill this beautiful hole is protected by a bunker in front of a steeply back-to-front sloped green. Avoid going long here.
There are ten Par 4’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 2.
No. 16, 393 yards, Par 4: Don’t put the cameras away yet! This slight dogleg right uphill Par 4 plays parallel to the Pacific Ocean. A good tee shot will leave you a short iron into an elevated green.
No. 18, 486 yards, Par 4: The closing hole on the North Course is as demanding as it comes. Rated the toughest hole on the course, many a bet will be won and lost on this Par 4! Favor the left side, as a good tee shot will leave you a mid-to-long iron to a two-tiered green.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, No. 10, and No. 17. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 5 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.54 below par.
No. 5, 525 yards, Par 5: This Par 5 is a welcome sight after three long Par 4’s, to open the outward 9. A relatively short Par 5 is a slight dog-leg left. Favor the left side of the fairway on the tee shot. A good tee shot can leave you in the “go zone, “ to hit your approach onto a relatively open green.
No. 17, 520 yards, Par 5: Once a Par 4, this hole was renovated to a Par 5 during its last renovation. Playing downwind a good tee shot on this slight dogleg left Par 5 will need to favor the right side as the left is OB. A good shot will leave either a clear lay-up shot or even better an opportunity to reach a relatively unprotected green in two!
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Ludvig Aberg
Chun-an Yu
Patrick Cantlay
Tyler Duncan
Doug Ghim
Strokes Gained: Approach
As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village (the Memorial) are the only two courses on tour
that are longer than 7,500 yards and have greens of 5,000 sq. ft. or smaller.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Alex Smalley
Xander Schauffele
Sam Ryder
Daniel Berger
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
The green complexes on the South Course at Torrey Pines are Poa annua .095”.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Max Homa
Maverick McNealy
Peter Malnati
Justin Suh
Rafael Campos
Driving Distance
Torrey Pines’ South Course was the longest on tour last year at 7,765 yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Chris Gotterup
Cameron Champ
Min Woo Lee
Garrick Higgo
Callum Tarren
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2 South Course, x3 North Course)
Two of the four Par 3’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 200-225 Yards. Three of the four Par 3’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Carson Young
Keith Mitchell
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Cink
Hideki Matsuyama
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6 South Course, x5 North Course)
Six of the ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 450-500 Yards. Five of the ten Par 4’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Ryan Fox
Sahith Theegala
Patrick Cantlay
Taylor Pendrith
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2 South Course, x1 North Course)
Two of the four Par 5’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 500-550 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Lee Hodges
Stephan Jaeger
Aaron Rai
Daniel Berger
Collin Morikawa
Scrambling
Torrey Pines is one of the longest courses on Tour and has some of the smallest greens. Last year the greens in regulation average at this event was much lower than the PGA Tour average. The last four winners of this event rank 14th or better in terms of scrambling percentage.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Robert MacIntyre
Maverick McNealy
Peter Malnati
Daniel Berger
Aaron Baddeley
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 250+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity from 200+ yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Charley Hoffman
Adam Svensson
Luke List
Sahith Theegala
Stephan Jaeger
Comparable Courses and Event History
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s tournament. Twenty-six of the top sixty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Xander Schauffele (+900) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T10 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his ninth consecutive Farmers Insurance Open. He’s finished inside the top 15 in two of his last three appearances at this event with his best finish coming in 2021 (T2).
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T12 gaining strokes in every category. This will be his fourth Farmers Insurance Open. In his three previous appearances at this event, he’s missed the cut twice and finished T51.
Max Homa (+1100) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T14 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his eighth Farmers Insurance Open. He won this event last year with his other best finishes coming in 2021 (T18) and 2020 (T9).
Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T5 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his third Farmers Insurance Open. In his two previous appearances at this event, he’s finished T21 (2020) and 3rd (2023).
Previous Winners in the Field:
Max Homa (’23), Luke List (’22), Justin Rose (’19), Jason Day (’18, ’15), Brandt Snedeker (’16, ’12). Scott Stallings (’14)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrian Meronk, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Cameron Sisk, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Kevin Dougherty, Ludvig Aberg, Mac Meissner, Marcus Byrd, Matt Wallace, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Min Woo Lee, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Victor Perez, Wilson Furr
Players with San Diego ties in the Field:
Charley Hoffman (Poway High School), Michael Kim (Torrey Pines High School), Xander Schauffele (Scripps Ranch/San Diego State), Cameron Sisk (Valhalla High School/El Cajon), J. J. Spaun (San Diego State)
Notable Withdraws:
Tyler McCumber (Undisclosed). Justin Thomas (Undisclosed), Nick Dunlap (Celebrating his victory)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Facts & Figures:
12 of the last 14 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had a T10 finish or better at the event before winning.
8 of the last 10 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had a T10 finish or better in one of their last five events leading up to the tournament.
Horses for Courses:
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Events Played
Scoring Average (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Sahith Theegala
2
69.75
T4
T25
–
–
–
Collin Morikawa
2
70.00
3
–
–
T21
–
Sungaje Im
5
70.41
T4
T6
T32
T36
T52
Tony Finau
9
70.41
T9
MC
T2
T6
T13
Will Zalatoris
4
70.17
MC
2
T7
–
–
Justin Rose
13
70.43
T18
T6
–
MC
1
Taylor Montgomery
2
70.50
T31
T11
–
–
–
Jason Day
14
70.69
T7
T3
MC
T16
T5
Hideki Matsuyama
10
70.69
T9
T30
T53
T45
T3
Ryan Palmer
10
70.74
T62
T16
T2
T21
T13
Justin Thomas
4
70.86
T25
T20
–
–
–
Luke List
9
70.97
T25
1
T10
T36
T40
Sepp Straka
4
71.00
–
T16
T32
MC
T13
Max Homa
7
71.10
1
MC
T18
T9
–
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Torrey Pines North Course & Torrey Pines South Course
Events Played
Scoring Average (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Justin Lower
2
72.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Josh Teater
7
72.09
–
–
–
MC
MC
Ryan Moore
8
72.22
–
–
MC
–
MC
Austin Eckroat
2
72.25
MC
MC
–
–
–
Hayden Buckley
2
72.25
MC
MC
–
–
–
Patton Kizzire
5
72.50
MC
MC
–
MC
–
K.H. Lee
3
72.67
–
–
MC
MC
MC
Dylan Wu
2
72.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
James Hahn
10
72.82
MC
MC
MC
–
MC
Tyler Duncan
4
72.88
MC
–
MC
–
MC
Chesson Hadley
7
72.89
–
MC
MC
MC
MC
Benjamin Taylor
3
73.00
MC
–
MC
T55
–
Lee Hodges
2
73.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Keith Mitchell
5
73.33
–
MC
MC
MC
MC
Vincent Whaley
3
73.33
–
MC
MC
MC
–
Davis Riley
2
73.50
MC
MC
–
–
–
Harry Hall
2
74.25
MC
–
–
MC
–
Seamus Power
4
74.63
–
–
MC
–
MC
Michael Block
6
75.92
MC
MC
–
MC
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Max Homa (-13)
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Max Homa
31
1
1
24
9
2022: Luke List (-15)
Price: 90-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Luke List
21
5
4
32
8
2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Patrick Reed
31
12
39
1
10
2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
Price: 55-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Marc Leishman
48
16
5
56
1
2019: Justin Rose (-21)
Price: 14-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Justin Rose
13
2
5
16
28
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Max Homa
T3 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
17 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T23 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
T20 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
WON – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
2022: Luke List
T22 – The American Express (PGA)
T10 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T11 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
T7 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
2021: Patrick Reed
MC – The American Express (PGA)
T21 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
T10 – The Masters (MAJ)
T14 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
T13 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2020: Marc Leishman
T28 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
69 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
T43 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
3 – Safeway Open (PGA)
WD – A Military Tribute (PGA)
2019: Justin Rose
T34 – Desert Classic (PGA)
3 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
3 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
T17 – BNI Indonesian Masters (ASA)
WON – Turkish Airlines Open (EUR)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Max Homa
2022 – MC
2021 – T18
2020 – T9
2017 – MC
2015 – MC
2014 – MC
2022: Luke List
2021 – T10
2020 – T36
2019 – T40
2018 – T12
2017 – MC
2016 – MC
2013 – T68
2021: Patrick Reed
2020 – T6
2019 – T13
2018 – T23
2016 – WD
2013 – T39
2020: Marc Leishman
2019 – T43
2018 – T8
2017 – T20
2016 – MC
2015 – T27
2014 – T2
2013 – MC
2012 – T52
2011 – T9
2010 – T2
2009 – T26
2019: Justin Rose
2018 – T8
2017 – T4
2016 – MC
2015 – MC
2012 – T33
2011 – T25
2010 – T22
2007 – T51
2005 – MC
Picks (Outrights):
Jason Day (+2500) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Keegan Bradley (+3000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Sahith Theegala (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Harris English (+5000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sungjae Im (+100) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Luke List (+100) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Adam Svensson (+115) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Taylor Pendrith (+125) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 3.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Total Risk on the Farmers Insurance Open: 5.00 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college basketball and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. After that, we get into a first look for NFL conference weekend playoffs with a Free Play. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
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55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
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Chiefs vs Bills -2.5 O/U 45
We have a couple of different things happening here. The BIlls are getting injured and the Chiefs are getting healthy. Normally, I lean or bet the Bils in this game, but now I am very concerned for the Bills defense. CB Teron Johnson, CB Rasul Douglas, CB Christian Benford and LB Terrell Bernard are all pretty banged up. Bernard is the key one to watch as the Chiefs have been running the ball quite well lately. Christian Benford is out with the others questionable. We also have to also remember that safety Taylor Rapp is out as well for this game. What makes matters worse for the Buffalo defense is that WR Rashee Rice has been balling out for KC, and WR Sky Walker will be back in the mix. Both the Chiefs and the Bills are a bit weak against the run, but the Chiefs are better against the pass ranking 3rd in opponent pass EPA to the Bills ranking seventh. Josh Allen is the big wildcard here, and I think that the Bills will need Bernard and at least two of the mentioned cornerbacks to be healthy to play this game. In the mean time, I will take the under being that the Chiefs are the best under team in the league. It also will be very cold and I expect a heavy dose of Pacheco. Chiefs unders are 13-5 this season with that great defense.
Under 45.5 – 2 stars
Lean Chiefs +2.5 for now
Teaser: Chiefs to +8.5 with the Bucs to +12.5 – 2 stars
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
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UCONN vs Villanova +3.5 O/U 139
This should be a fun matchup in the Big East. First of all, there are no matchup advantages that Villanova has over Uconn other than home court as you can see below from Haslametrics. UCONN has a massive 17th ranked near proximity offense to Nova’s defending the rim ranking 253rd. The Huskies have a huge 45th ranking in adjusted three point percentage to Villanova’s defense at 123rd.
The coaching advantage also goes to the Huskies. Dan Hurley can coach circles around Kyle Neptune. Villanova is a very inconsistent team only ranked 336th in the consistency metric and they seem struggle at home. FG% also favors the Huskies over the Wildcats by a lot. Take the Huskies on the road to win big.
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Niagara vs Rider -3 O/U 145
This could be a fun little matchup tonight in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Niagara visits Rider and I am not sure that the right team is favored here. Now I am not saying that either of these teams are all that good but Niagara is better. The Purple Eagles shoot an amazing 38.2% from three point land and that skill has proven to travel with the team at 51.6% effective FG% away from home. Rider is a bitter 43.5% effective FG% at home. What might be worse is that Rider can’t shoot free throws all that well ranking 200th 71.2% which doesn’t bode well for favorites. Niagara is coming off of a bad loss against a motivated Siena team at home, but they ripped four wins in a row before that against teams like Iona, Fairfield and Buffalo. Niagara’s defense is their crutch allowing 54.3% effective FG to opponents, but rider isn’t too far behind that mark allowing 52%. I think Niagara keeps this one close if they do not win it outright.
The Lecomte Stakes is a Grade III race for 3-year-olds that takes place annually at the Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana. The race was first run in 1970 and is named in honor of Lecomte, a successful racehorse in the mid-19th century. Initially contested at a distance of one mile, the race has undergone various distance changes over the years.
This stakes race serves as an important early prep race for three-year-olds on their journey to the Kentucky Derby, attracting top-class horses and jockeys. It plays a significant role in shaping the field for the Triple Crown races, making it a key event in the racing calendar. The top five finishers are awarded Derby qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2). To see the leaderboard for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders, you can click the following link.
Race Information:
Track: Fair Grounds
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana, United States
Event Grade: Grade III
Race: 13
Post Time: 7:00 PM ET
Length: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse: $200,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta
Previous Winners:
2023: Instant Coffee
2022: Call Me Midnight
2021: Midnight Bourbon
2020: Enforceable
2019: War of Will (Preakness Winner)
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Next Level SCRATCHED
30-1
2
Nash
5-2
3
Tizzy Indy
30-1
4
Can Group
6-1
5
Ethan Energy
4-1
6
Lat Long
8-1
7
Track Phantom
9-5
8
Awesome Road SCRATCHED
8-1
Horse Preview:
Name: Next Level
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Dont Tell My Wife Stables 2022 LLC
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: David Cohen
Dam: Devious d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro)
Sire: Vino Rosso (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
1
1
1
2023
6
1
1
1
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
2
1
0
0
Next Level finally broke his maiden in his fifth start in a Maiden Special Weight at Fair Grounds. Before that, he ran 7th in the American Pharoah Stakes (Grade I) and 3rd in the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (Grade I). In his last start (Gun Runner Stakes), he ran 7th weakening down the stretch and losing to fellow entrant Track Phantom. One change for this horse is that the blinkers will come off. Keith Desormeaux will get the mount who’s ridden this horse four times before. Desormeaux also won this race in 2022 with Call Me Midnight.
Name: Nash
ML Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Dam: Sara Louise (Malibu Moon)
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (El Prado*Ire)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
1
1
2023
3
1
1
1
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
1
0
0
1
In his first career start, Nash ran 2nd in a Maiden Special Weight at Keeneland. Following that race, he broke his maiden in another Maiden Special Weight winning by more than ten lengths over the field. In his most recent race, he finished 3rd in the Gun Runner Stakes losing to fellow entrant Track Phantom. Florent Geroux who has ridden the horse in his last two races will retain the mount. Brad Cox won this race in 2023 with Instant Coffee.
Name: Tizzy Indy
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Calumet Farm
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Dam: Tizzy Fever (Tiznow)
Sire: Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
1
1
1
2023
6
1
1
1
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
1
0
0
1
Tizzy Indy finally broke his maiden in his fourth start in a $20,000 Maiden Claiming at Churchill Downs. Following that race, he ran 2nd in a Starter Allowance. In his most recent race, he moved to the turf and ran 3rd in a Starter Optional Claiming at Fair Grounds. James Graham will get his first mount with Tizzy Indy. Keith Desormeaux won this race in 2022 with Call Me Midnight.
Name: Can Group
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): D. J. Stable LLC and Cash is King LLC
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Dam: Blue Gallina (Street Sense)
Sire: Good Samaritan (Harlan’s Holiday)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
0
2
2023
5
2
0
2
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
0
0
0
0
Can Group began his career with back-to-back 3rd-place finishes in Maiden Special Weights at Ellis Park. Following that, he switched surfaces and won a Maiden Special Weight at Kentucky Downs. Showing promise of the turf, they ran him in the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland which he won as well. In his most recent race, he finished 4th in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I). Jareth Loveberry will get his first mount with Can Group.
Name: Ethan Energy
ML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): Stonestreet Stables LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Sass and Class (Harlan’s Holiday)
Sire: Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
0
2023
2
1
0
0
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
1
1
0
0
Ethan Energy began his career with a 6th place finish in a 6 1/2 furlong sprint at Keeneland. In his most recent start, he raced at a distance of 1 1/16 miles winning by more than five lengths over the field. Luis Saez will get his first mount with Ethan Energy.
Name: Lat Long
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Walking L Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Dam: Amen Sista (Street Cry*Ire)
Sire: Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
1
3
2023
5
1
1
3
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
0
0
0
0
Lat Long finally broke his maiden in his most recent start. However, in his four previous starts, he hit the board each time. Before his last race, he ran 2nd to fellow entrant Track Phantom in a Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Brian Hernandez Jr. will get the mount who’s ridden this horse four times before.
Name: Track Phantom
ML Odds: 9-5
Owner(s): L and N Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Dam: Miss Sunset (Into Mischief)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
1
1
2023
4
2
1
1
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
1
1
0
0
Track Phantom is the morning line favorite in the Lecomte Stakes. He’s won his last two races including the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds and a $123k Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Both of those races were run at a distance of a mile and a sixteenth. In the Gun Runner Stakes, he defeated fellow entrant Nash (3rd) and in that Maiden Special Weight, he beat fellow entrant Lat Long (2nd). Joel Rosario will get his first mount with Track Phantom.
Name: Awesome Road
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Donegal Racing
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Dam: Orate (A.P. Indy)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
0
0
2023
3
1
0
0
2022
0
M
0
0
Fair Grounds
0
0
0
0
Awesome Road won his first start in a 6 furlong spring at Ellis Park posting an impressive speed figure. Following that, he finished 6th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I) which was a mile and a sixteenth. In his most recent race, they kept him at that distance and he finished 5th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II). Axel Concepcion will get his first mount with Awesome Road.
Projected Pace:
Front Runners
Nash (#2)
Track Phantom (#7)
Off the Pace
Next Level (#1)
Lat Long (#6)
Middle/ Back of the Pact
Tizzy Izzy (#3)
Ethan Energy (#5)
Awesome Road (#8)
Closers
Can Group (#4)
Picks:
While there is a chance that Track Phantom will run away with this race, I’m always looking to beat the favorite. My two picks to try and upset the favorite are Nash and Ethan Enegery. Nash lost to Track Phantom is the Gun Runner after a slow start. Nash challenged him as they rounded the backstretch but flattened out. The good news is that there isn’t much pace in this race so he should be able to stick closer to Track Phantom as he sprints towards the lead out of the gate. Ethan Energy has shown tremendous progress in his last race. He posted a pretty impressive time and while he doesn’t have the same speed figures as the morning line favorite, he’s on the right path. His last race was at a mile and a sixteenth which was also encouraging knowing he can run this distance. If he can stay relatively close to the leaders into the backstretch he may have a chance to run them down.
My two other options were Can Group and Lat Long however I had some issues with them. Can Group has only raced once on dirt which was his first of his career. He ran 3rd in a $120k Maiden Special Weight and to be fair, the track had sloppy conditions. Since that race, he switched to turf where he’s had success. I’m a bit hesitant with this horse given the surface change. Lat Long took five tries to break his maiden and has shown that he just doesn’t have the speed to compete with Track Phantom.
Next Level (now scratched), Tizzy Indy, and Awesome Road (now scratched) were all tosses for me.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
