We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into some NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football Playoffs. Finally, Dave comes on to talk some fantasy football Week 16 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Sometimes you have to get a little dirty. Look, there is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers are the best team in the league, but this spot is screaming for the Cardinals. The 49ers just went through a hard part of the schedule beating the Eagles and the Seahawks twice. This is somewhat of a break in their schedule getting to play one of the easier teams in the League. The 49ers are in a sandwich spot being that the 2nd best team is on deck in the Baltimore Ravens. I can assume that their minds are on this game. There is no need for me to get too far into the analytics and the 49ers pretty much rule in every category, but the Cardinals have a path here. If the 49ers have a weakness, it is their secondary as they have lost Talanoa Hufanga and George Odum earlier in the season. Chartarius Ward is also questionable. Combine this with their two interior defensive lineman in Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave to miss this game. Now normally a great pass rush like Bosa and Young is all that is needed to overcome a bad secondary, but Kyler Murray is that type of wildcard that welcomes the pass rush as he can scramble and run with the best of all quarterbacks in the league. He is probably the best at that next to Lamar Jackson. The last thing that I see is that the Cardinals are coming off of the bye, and this is a good rally spot for the team. I think that Arizona can either keep this game close to competitive, or at least have a good opportunity to back door this number. Grab the smelly dog.
Cardinals +12 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle +580 ML
Teaser: (11-3 for the season) – Cowboys to +8 with the Texans to +9.5 – 3 stars – What have the Titans done to lay three points against anybody. This is a huge spot for Demeco Ryans and this team even with backup Case Keenum who is experienced. Some say this is a bad spot for the Cowboys, but the Bills just also came off of a huge win vs the Chiefs. Disrespectful line IMO.
Day 1 of bowl season has arrived! Hope everyone is excited as I am to crush these bowls and make some money. Due to keep in mind throughout the 3 weeks, bowl season can bring the unexpected more than other times of the year in my opinion. Guys opting out to enter the transfer portal, head to the NFL, or are just flat out not feeling it. You will see teams bring more emotion that they would to the CFP, then you will see teams be completely disinterested and have moved onto next season. Our job is to find the teams that want to play, bring the extra effort and more importantly: want to win!
I will update this column every day there is a bowl keeping track of our record and providing free plays on how I’m executing each and every bowl game! Good luck to us and everyone participating in bowl season!
We have 6 bowls on tap for opening day, with the additional Celebration Bowl. Let’s begin!
11:00am ET- Ohio vs Georgia Southern: After a great 2022 for Clay Helton’s Ga Southern squad, they were barely bowl eligible winning only 6 games in 2023. Getting win #6 back in the middle of October, then losing 4 straight to end the season. They heavily rely on their passing game with an air raid type scheme, which is unfortunate for them having to face a Bobcat passing defense that shined in 2023. Only giving up 200+ yards twice in 12 games, with an average of 168 yards per game. With Davis Brin so interception prone, it could be a long day for the Eagles. I am all over Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to kick off bowl season!
Plays: Ohio +2.5 (FD: -105) to win 1.25u, Ohio ML (+120) risk 0.5u
2:15pm ET- ULL vs Jacksonville St: It’s Rich Rods JVST bowl debut, but as usual his squad can RUN and score quickly but play no defense. An even game in my opinion, complete stay away for me. Pass…
3:30pm ET- Miami OH vs App St: Facing defenses in the Sunbelt like Georgia Southern, Georgia St, ULM, CCU, ODU, Southern Miss just to name a few is one thing. Facing a physical, hard hitting Chuck Martin defense is another. #1 defense in the country in fumble recoveries. Yes, I know they play in the MAC, but in case y’all haven’t noticed. The MAC was much better this season, as a whole beating teams outside of their conference even into the power 5. Look, it’s not 2019, 2020, 2021 where we were accustomed to these tremendous App St squads. Speed, speed, and more speed. The 2023 version just does not have the same quality of players as the old ones. App St will score their points come day 1 of bowl season, but I don’t believe it will be enough to take down the RedHawks. Miami OH is good in all three phases, with special teams being a high priority for them. They’re getting 6.5 points, but I don’t believe we will need them. They will win this game outright! Take Miami OH with the points as well as the money-line!
Plays: Miami OH +6.5 (-110) to win 1u, Miami OH ML (+200) risk 0.35u=0.7u
5:45pm ET- NMSU vs Fresno St: Complete stay away for me. Fresno HC will miss the game for health reasons, also a Bulldog team that was completely stagnant down the stretch. Pavia will play for the Aggies who were good as gold down the stretch, but their pass defense got picked apart at times in 2023, and what I believe will keep Fresno in this game. NMSU favorites in a bowl game, I think us just outrageous no matter who they are facing, nonetheless the 2022 Mountain West champs. My biggest concern is Jerry Kill’s SU record in bowl games at 1-5, with last season year #1 at NMSU being his first bowl win, as well as the Aggies second bowl win since 1960. Will the buzz where off this year? Interesting note, it’s the New Mexico Bowl, meaning a home game for NMSU. Pools, take NMSU. Pass.
7:30pm ET- UCLA vs Boise St: Strength of schedule I believe severely favors the Bruins, with Boise facing outside of the Mountain West, Memphis, UCF, and Washington. All leading to losses, and three defenses that struggled most of 2023. Chip Kelly usually doesn’t associate defense into their game plan making all of his former collegiate teams vulnerable with their inability to stop teams in the past. 2023 not so much! This defense is physical, has speed on the back end and can just flat out play. Stopping BSU’s run game is a tough task, but when slowed down the ball will end up in their QB’s hands to air it out. Ranking top 10 in YPC, meaning they hit the big play due to their run game being so strong. Take that away, well Green is going to struggle. The key to this game is Ethan Garbers stepping on the field. Most of UCLA’s difficulties came at that QB position. Dylan Moore was 100% the reason for many of their losses, but when Garbers took the field, he fit Chip’s system perfectly. Executing the necessary throws and more importantly, not turning the ball over! UCLA avenges last year’s lazy bowl loss, with a victory at So-Fi stadium. Oh, did I mention it’s a home game per say.
Play: UCLA -5.5 (-110) to win 1.65u
9:15pm ET- California vs Texas Tech: Cal gets bowl eligible for the first time since 2019, led by Freshman QB Fernando Mendoza who enjoyed a productive 1st collegiate season throwing for over 1400 yards, 13 touchdowns and only 7 INT’s. Leaning on Sophomore RB Jaydn Ott was a practice that was quite successful. Ott ran for 1443 yards in 2023 and scored 11 touchdowns. Now get to face a Texas Tech squad who ran all over in 2023 and were not much better versus the pass. While teams in general might have quality wins, I think these Bears have some quality losses. 4-point loss to SEC Auburn, 1 point loss to Caleb’s USC Trojans, and blowout road losses to Utah, Oregon, and CFP Washington. Now, facing T.T. is facing is far inferior to any of these squads. Small play here on Cal.
Plays: Cal +3.5 (-110) to win 0.5u, Cal ML (+140) risk 0.25u=0.35u
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Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs Georgia Southern -3.5 O/U 48.5
Location: Brooks Stadium Conway, South Carolina Start Time: 11 a.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Ohio Motivation – Medium Low – I personally would rather party in Myrtle Beach rather than win a meaningless bowl game.
Georgia Southern Motivation – Medium High – Not new for Georgia folks to be by the Ocean. I will say that Clay Helton isn’t good at bowl games being 1-5 ATS.
Home: None
Key Guy’s missing:
Ohio:
Starting QB Kurtis Rourke
Starting WR Miles Cross (617 snaps)
Starting RB Sieh Bangura (483 snaps)
Backup RB O’Shaan Allison (335 snaps)
Georgia Southern:
None
Net YPP: Ohio +.87
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Ohio Offense
5.18 (103)
3.75 (104)
128.56 (82)
Georgia Southern Defense
6.09 (105)
4.57 (93)
137.04 (83)
Georgia Southern Offense
5.69 (70)
4.19 (80)
128.94 (80)
Ohio Defense
4.7 (11)
3.34 (20)
117.38 (14)
Key Stats: There is nothing more key than Kurtis Rourke possibly not playing this game.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Georgia Southern, Clay Helton: 1-5
Tim Albin, Ohio: 1-0
Verdict: With backup QB CJ Harris out, I have no idea how good Parker Navarro is in case Rourke doesn’t play. If he is out then slam the under if you get it on time.
Play: Lean under if Rourke is out and lean Ohio if he is in.
New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana +2.5 O/U 59 Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana Time: 2:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Jacksonville State Motivation: Medium – I would assume the kids want to play their first bowl game but Rich Rodriguez is a horrible 2-9 ATS.
Louisiana Motivation: Medium – Not the best situation staying close to home.
Home: Louisiana is only 138 miles away while Jacksonville State is over 400.
Key guys missing:
Jacksonville State:
Starting CB Jabari Mack injured and hasn’t played since Week 8.
Stud EDGE Jaylen Swain injured and didn’t play in the regular-season finale.
Louisiana:
Starting LB Kendré Gant is transferring.
Net YPP: Louisiana +.51
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Jacksonville State Offense
5.38 (86)
4.86 (29)
110.23 (121)
Louisiana-Lafayette Defense
5.26 (41)
3.85 (42)
137.01 (82)
Louisiana-Lafayette Offense
6.27 (35)
5.05 (20)
148.97 (35)
Jacksonville State Defense
4.88 (15)
2.8 (4)
125.47 (38)
Key Stats: Jacksonville State doesn’t turn the ball much while Louisiana fumbles the ball a heck of a lot.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Rich Rodriguez, Jacksonville State: 2-9
Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana: 1-1
Verdict: Rich Rodriguez loves to run the football but he also plays very fast. If Louisiana can stop the run, they should be able to win this game. Louisiana will find some success passing the ball here.
Play: Lean Louisiana
Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State -6.5 O/U 43 Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Miami Ohio’s Motivation: Medium High – Cold weather team in warm weather but Chuck Martin is 4-0 in bowl games.
Appalachian State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I think the Kids will want a vacation from the hillbillies.
Home: None
Key guys missing:
Miami Oh
QB Aveon Smith to transfer and QB Brett Gabbert still injured.
App State
WR Dashuan Davis
Net YPP: Miami .41
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Miami (Ohio) Offense
5.78 (61)
4.4 (62)
137.33 (64)
Appalachian State Defense
5.82 (85)
5.03 (119)
122.18 (27)
Appalachian State Offense
6.27 (36)
4.53 (50)
154.59 (19)
Miami (Ohio) Defense
4.93 (17)
3.58 (28)
118.85 (18)
Key Stats: Miami Oh is number 5 in explosive plays while App State ranks 71st in giving them up.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio): 4-0
Shawn Clark, Appalachian State: 1-2
Verdict: Not knowing if Aveon Smith is playing is rough, but Miami Oh has the much better defense here. You also can’t ignore Chuck Martin’s 4-0 bowl ATS. I also see Miami Oh moving the ball on the ground here. I will probably be on Miami Oh sometime soon even with lower motivation but I would just want to hear about the QB situation.
Play: Miami Oh +6.5 but maybe wait for a 7
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs Fresno State +4 O/U 51 Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico Time: 5:45 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
New Mexico State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I feel that NMSU wanted a better bowl game rather than having to stay home.
Fresno State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Might be best to go and visit where Breaking Bad was filmed rather than play in this awful destination of a bowl game.
Home: Full advantage for New Mexico State being that Alumni live there.
Key Guys Missing:
New Mexico State:
None
Fresno State:
Coach Jeff Tedford out with medical issues
Starting LT Jacob Spomer injured and was lost for the season.
Starting DT Gavriel Lightfoot was limited to only four snaps over the final two games.
Net YPP: New Mexico State +.94
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
New Mexico State Offense
6.98 (9)
5.79 (4)
152.94 (24)
Fresno State Defense
5.49 (58)
4.35 (81)
122.37 (28)
Fresno State Offense
5.54 (76)
3.67 (107)
135.17 (67)
New Mexico State Defense
5.99 (97)
4.41 (83)
136.42 (81)
Key Stats: None
Bowl Coaching ATS:
Jerry Kill, New Mexico State: 2-5
Verdict: New Mexico State will have the rushing advantage here but as you saw against Liberty, this team can also give up plenty of yards on the ground. I think that Fresno State had a blow off type year after winning it all last year. With Tedford out, that has to be worth something. I’ll take the Aggies and hope Kill doesn’t kill the cover for me.
Lean: NM State -3.5
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State +3.5 O/U 48.5 Location: SOFI Stadium, Inglewood, California Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
UCLA’s Motivation: Medium High – No travel but this might be more business and playing at home helps.
Boise State’s Motivation: Medium – They accomplished their goals to win MW and might not care as much to play UCLA.
Home: UCLA is in their city but there will be Boise State folks there. I would say 1.5 points of advantage.
Key Guys Missing:
Boise State:
Starting QB Taylen Green to transfer
EDGE Kivon Wright to transfer
Starting WR Stefan Cobbs hasn’t played since Week 10 due to injury
Other QB Maddux Madsen out for the season
UCLA:
QB Dante Moore transfer
WR Kam Brown (332 snaps; hasn’t played since week 9) will transfer
TE Carsen Ryan (365 snaps) will transfer
S William Nimmo (345 snaps) will transfer
DB Kamari Ramsey (one INT, four PBUs) will transfer
Net YPP: UCLA .51
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
UCLA Offense
5.78 (63)
4.67 (39)
128.33 (84)
Boise State Defense
5.9 (92)
3.87 (47)
134.11 (76)
Boise State Offense
6.61 (16)
5.34 (10)
141.42 (51)
UCLA Defense
4.55 (8)
2.33 (3)
120.52 (24)
Key Stats: Boise State allows explosive plays ranking 113th on defense.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
Chip Kelly, UCLA: 2-3 (UCLA only)
Spencer Danielson: None
Verdict: Both teams are missing some guys but none more important than Boise State being without both quarterbacks. The Broncos could start true Freshman CJ Tlller but he has 0 experience. Take UCLA here being that Chase Garbers should start who has plenty of regular season playing time.
Play: UCLA -4
Independence Bowl: Cal vs Texas Tech -3 O/U 56.5 Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana Time: 9:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: High – Cal hasn’t been to a bowl in a while and they should come to play.
Texas Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Hard to tell with this team.
Home: None – Nobody is driving over 500 miles for this game.
Key Guys Missing:
Cal
OL Brayden Rohme (105 snaps; started a few games) is transferring.
LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (700 snaps; leading tackler) is transferring.
CB Jeremiah Earby (447 snaps) is transferring.
Cal starting linebacer Jackson Sirmon was lost for the season after Week 6.
Texas Tech
QB Tyler Shough (not starting at end of year) will transfer.
Starting WR Myles Price (438 snaps) will transfer.
Starting WR Jerand Bradley (613 snaps) will transfer.
Starting LT Monroe Mills (894 snaps, two sacks allowed) will transfer.
Stud starting DT Jaylon Hutchings had surgery and will miss the bowl (491 snaps).
Starters S Tyler Owens and DE Steve Linton missed time at the end of the regular-season with injuries.
Starting LG Cole Spencer hasn’t played since Week 5 due to a toe injury
Net YPP: California + .19
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
California Offense
5.48 (80)
4.67 (37)
123.59 (94)
Texas Tech Defense
5.51 (62)
4.49 (90)
122.63 (29)
Texas Tech Offense
5.38 (84)
4.55 (46)
120.94 (104)
California Defense
5.81 (83)
3.84 (40)
142.73 (102)
Key Stats: Cal is very bad against the pass ranking 123rd in opponent passing success rate.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
Justin Wilcox, Cal: 1-1
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: 1-0
Verdict: I could see a very close game here as the spread implies. My power ratings favor Texas Tech but they have more kids opting out. I also see more motivation for Cal. I will probably be on the sidelines for this one.
Play: Lean Under
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky +2.5 O/U 54.5 Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina Time: 2:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great matchup but I could see motivation.
Old Dominion’s Motivation: High – Western Kentucky is a bigger name to beat.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Western Kentucky
Stud starting LG Quantavious Leslie (two-time first-team CUSA; 787 snaps) to transfer.
Starting C Vincent Murphy (822 snaps) to transfer.
Starting RT Wes Dorsey (678 snaps) to transfer.
Starting CB Upton Stout (418 snaps) to transfer.
Starting LB Desmyn Baker (472 snaps) to transfer.
Old Dominion
WR Javon Harvey (431 snaps) to transfer.
Starting S Terry Jones (743 snaps; 107 tackles this season) to transfer.
DE Devin Brandt-Epps (245 snaps) to transfer.
Starting P Ethan Duane to transfer.
Star LB Jason Henderson (861 snaps; nation’s leading tackler) is injured.
Net YPP: Old Dominion +.05
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Western Kentucky Offense
5.9 (53)
4.03 (89)
139.78 (56)
Old Dominion Defense
5.22 (39)
3.58 (29)
140.06 (93)
Old Dominion Offense
5.38 (85)
4.06 (87)
128.63 (81)
Western Kentucky Defense
5.8 (82)
4.76 (109)
125.78 (41)
Key Stats: Both teams play at fast tempos with Old Dominion ranking 9th and Western Kentucky ranking 33rd.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky: 2-1
Verdict: I think Old Dominion gets the best of the Hill-toppers. The motivation will be there as well as the running game. I also have the Monarchs slightly higher in my power ratings. I also think the O-line issues with the Hill Toppers will be huge.
Play: Old Dominion -2.5
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA -12.5 O/U 52.5 Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Marshall’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not sure what there is to do in Frisco, but It has to be better than West Virginia.
UTSA’s Motivation: Medium High – I think they might want to put one on a former rival like Marshall.
Home: Slight to UTSA yet 300 miles away.
Key Guys Missing:
Marshall
Starting QB Cam Fancher to transfer.
QB Cole Pennington now set to start.
Marshall C/G anchor Trent Holler (725 snaps) to miss.
Starting S J.J. Roberts (581 snaps) missed the final two games due to injury.
UTSA:
AAC Defensive Player of the Year EDGE Trey Moore (502 snaps) to miss game.
Net YPP: UTSA +.77
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Marshall Offense
5.3 (94)
3.85 (98)
123.44 (95)
UTSA Defense
5.16 (32)
3.75 (37)
123.71 (34)
UTSA Offense
5.72 (68)
4.42 (60)
137.75 (61)
Marshall Defense
5.51 (61)
4.43 (85)
126.17 (46)
Key Stats: UTSA ranks 23rd in explosiveness while Marshall is 125th against explosive plays.
Bowl Coaching ATS:
Jeff Traylor, UTSA: 1-2
Charles Huff, Marshall: 1-1
Verdict: UTSA should win this game easily, but it had gotten too expensive for my blood. Both teams play at a pretty fast pace. 47th for Marshall and 18th for UTSA. I kinda like their TT over and might take a stab at that later.
USF’s Motivation: High – Get to beat a power 5 school?
Syracuse’s Motivation: Medium – TBD if new coach Fran Brown will be there.
Home: USF should have more fans. However, I doubt the stadium fills up much.
Key Guys Missing:
South Florida
Starting LG Andrew Kilfoyl didn’t play the final few games, while starting RG Zane Herring left the regular-season finale with an injury.
Starting OLB Lloyd Summerall left the team after Week 10
Syracuse
Head coach Dino Babers has been fired (Nunzio Campanile to serve as interim head coach).
Texas A&M’s Elijah Robinson hired as defensive coordinator.
Starting EDGE Leon Lowery Jr. (523 snaps) will transfer.
CB Jeremiah Wilson (285 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8) will transfer.
Net YPP: Syracuse + .79
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Syracuse Offense
5.52 (79)
4.55 (47)
132.59 (71)
South Florida Defense
6.34 (119)
4.41 (84)
145.78 (110)
South Florida Offense
5.73 (67)
4.13 (83)
142.69 (48)
Syracuse Defense
5.34 (52)
3.87 (46)
132.36 (67)
Key Stats: South Florida ranks dead last in giving up explosive plays. SOS favors Syracuse 69th to 122nd for USF.
Bowl Coach ATS:
None
Verdict: I know coach Babers is out, but this might be one that Syracuse should cover even as an away game. There are really no advantages here for South Florida and the strength of schedule is immense. USF also gets sacked a ton.
Play: Syracuse -3 but wait to make sure nobody holds out.
USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $50 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH! Click Here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 17th 2023
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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