Time captioned below! We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards of @VegasInsider and @MajorWager comes back to break down college bowls, NFL and UFC 296! First, Kiev gets into all of the bowl games with a quick handicap with some FREE PLAYS! Next, Brian comes on and the guys get right into College football bowls with some of the plays that Brian has made as well as some thoughts, information and leans for some others. Then, Brian and Kiev get into the full slate of NFL games with some more plays. After that, Brian and Kiev talk some UFC 296 with some big thoughts throughout the main card. Then, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-3 for the season. Finally, we get into some College and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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Tobias has hit the under in 75% of his matches against Det.
He has gone under this number in each of the games he has played in Detroit.
he has only gone over 4 out of the last 10 times when playing on the road.
Jonas Valanciunas, NOP U12.5 REB (-135) BetMGM
Jonas has gone over only twice in the last ten games. Both of those games, he “only” recorded 13 rebounds.
In both games against Washington he went under.
He has only gone over once this season when playing on the road. Averaging just 9 overall (on road).
Best of luck to everyone! As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG at sign up! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -140, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!
If you are a college football fan, a sports bettor, or both, then you know that these college bowl games are based off of motivation, coaching, home field proximity, and player retention more than straight power. I think that it is imperative to know what you are up against if you are trying to bet on these games. In this article, I give you the matchup, the location, the odds, and the ever important speculation on each team’s motivation along with a potential home field advantage that you must factor into your handicaps, and office pools that you will be filling out before the games begin. Keep in mind that my speculation on each team’s motivation is subject to change so please keep checking this article periodically during the month of December.
H = High Motivation
MH = Medium High
M = Medium
ML = Medium Low
L = Low
(all times ET)
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs Georgia Southern -4 O/U 49
Location: Brooks Stadium Conway, South Carolina Start Time: 11 a.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Ohio Motivation – Medium Low – I personally would rather party in Myrtle Beach rather than win a meaningless bowl game.
Georgia Southern Motivation – Medium High – Not new for Georgia folks to be by the Ocean. I will say that Clay Helton isn’t good at bowl games being 1-5 ATS.
Home: None
Celebration Bowl: Florida A&M vs. Howard N/A Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Florida A&M Motivation: High – FCS school in a bowl game? Why the hell not?
Howard Motivation: High – FCS school in a bowl game? Why the hell not?
Home: None
New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana +3 O/U 56.5 Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana Time: 2:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Jacksonville State Motivation: Medium – I would assume the kids want to play their first bowl game but Rich Rodriguez is a horrible 2-9 ATS.
Louisiana Motivation: Medium – Not the best situation staying close to home.
Home: Louisiana is only 138 miles away while Jacksonville State is over 400.
Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State -5.5 O/U 47 Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Miami Ohio’s Motivation: Medium High – Cold weather team in warm weather but Chuck Martin is 4-0 in bowl games.
Appalachian State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I think the Kids will want a vacation from the hillbillies.
Home: None
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs Fresno State +3.5 O/U 51 Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico Time: 5:45 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
New Mexico State’s Motivation: Medium Low – I feel that NMSU wanted a better bowl game rather than having to stay home.
Fresno State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Might be best to go and visit where Breaking Bad was filmed rather than play in this awful destination of a bowl game.
Home: Full advantage for New Mexico State being that Alumni live there.
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State +2.5 O/U 50 Location: SOFI Stadium, Inglewood, California Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
UCLA’s Motivation: Medium High – No travel but this might be more business and playing at home helps.
Boise State’s Motivation: Medium – They accomplished their goals to win MW and might not care as much to play UCLA.
Home: UCLA is in their city but there will be Boise State folks there. I would say 1.5 points of advantage.
Independence Bowl: Cal vs Texas Tech +3 O/U 58 Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana Time: 9:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: High – Cal hasn’t been to a bowl in a while and they should come to play.
Texas Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Hard to tell with this team as they don’t have to travel very far and it doesn’t seem so rewarding.
Home: None – Nobody is driving over 500 miles for this game.
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky +2.5 O/U 55.5 Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina Time: 2:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great matchup but I could see motivation.
Old Dominion’s Motivation: High – Western Kentucky is a bigger name to beat.
Home: None
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA -10 O/U 54.5 Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Marshall’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not sure what there is to do in Frisco, but It has to be better than West Virginia.
UTSA’s Motivation: Medium High – I think they might want to put one on a former rival like Marshall.
USF’s Motivation: High – Get to beat a power 5 school?
Syracuse’s Motivation: Medium – TBD if new coach Fran Brown will be there.
Home: USF should have more fans. However, I doubt the stadium fills up much.
Friday, Dec. 22
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Georgia Tech +4.5 O/U 64.5 Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida Time: 6:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Georgia Tech’s Motivation: High – They don’t make a lot of bowl games and this is a great opportunity to beat the Big 12.
UCF’s Motivation: Medium High – This team will be about business and close to home.
Home: UCF has a home field advantage being only 100 miles away.
Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs Troy -7.5 O/U 44 Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Duke’s Motivation: Medium low – I think that Duke had higher aspirations this year and they also lost their coach.
Troy’s Motivation: Medium – Nice to play a Power 5 but it’s Duke so not all that rewarding after winning the Sun Belt.
Home: Troy gets home field being only 145 miles from Birmingham.
Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State +1 O/U 53.5 Location: Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium High – Arkansas State should want to take care of business. Butch Jones is 6-1 ATS in Bowl games.
Northern Illinois Motivation: Medium – Why not beat another group of 5 team?
Home: Slight advantage to Arkansas State yet still 400 miles away.
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison -3 O/U 41 Location: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Air Force’s Motivation: High – They always want to win the Armed Forces Bowl while coach Calhoun is 8-4 ATS.
James Madison’s Motivation: High – First bowl game? Hell yes!
Home: None: both over 700 miles away.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs Georgia State +1 O/U 63.5 Location: Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, Idaho Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Utah State’s Motivation: Low – This is not a rewarding place to play. It’s almost like a prison sentence playing at a place you travel to every other year.
Georgia State’s Motivation: Medium Low – They will be on a business trip until they actually land in Boise. Then they will want to leave.
Home: Utah State is only 293 miles away but let’s just home the fans show up. 2 points max.
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama -16 O/U 47 Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama Time: 7 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Eastern Michigan’s Motivation: Medium High – Chris Creighton is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and he is a massive dog here. Great location as well.
South Alabama’s Motivation: Medium – This program has been on the rise over the past few years.
Home: This is LITERALLY a home game for South Alabama. There will be a few Eastern Michigan fans there though on vacation.
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs Northwestern +7 O/U 41.5 Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Utah’s Motivation: Medium – This team had higher expectations but this is still a cool place to play.
Northwestern’s Motivation:Medium High – What a great bowl ending a great season overcoming expectations for the Wildcats. David Braun will have them fired up.
Home: None – Utah is closer but both teams will show.
Hawai’i Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State -9.5 O/U 53.5 Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletic Complex, Honolulu, Hawai’i Time: 10:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Low – Great destination and I doubt that these kids ever get to Hawaii that often.
San Jose State’s Motivation: High – This team will be on a business trip and they go here every other year. They should want to win this game and show that they are the true MW Champs.
Home: None – I think both fans should travel.
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota -4 O/U 38 Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Bowling Green’s Motivation: High – Not a great destination but still a good opponent to try and beat.
Minnesota’s Motivation: Low – Ugly opponent to face and a bad destination.
Home: Bowling Green is only 80 miles away. Not sure how many Gophers will show up.
First Responder Bowl: Texas State vs Rice -4.5 O/U 59.5 Location: General J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Texas State’s Motivation: High – Playing an in state rival.
Rice’s Motivation: High – Playing an in state rival.
Home: None as both teams are about 245 miles from Dallas.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs Kansas -12.5 O/U 64.5 Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
UNLV’s Motivation: High – Get to play a power 5 team is always nice.
Kansas’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great opponent but we shall see because Lance Leipold is 5-1 ATS in bowl games.
Home: UNLV is only 300 miles away so I think they show up. 1 point advantage.
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech -7.5 O/U 58 Location: Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Tulane’s Motivation: Medium – They lost the AAC championship game, but they at least get to play a Power 5 team.
Virginia Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great bowl game but they will be happy to play in one again. It’s been a minute.
Home: A little for Virginia Tech as alumni should be lurking. 1 point.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs North Carolina +3 O/U 56.5 Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
West Virginia’s Motivation: High – This team did well this year and I expect them to put up a plethora of points.
North Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – Will Drake May even Play? (see what I did there?)
Home: UNC is only 140 Miles from Charlotte compared to 375 for West Virginia.
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC +8 O/U 57.5 Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California Time: 8 p.m. ET TV Channel: FOX
Louisville’s Motivation: High – Every team wants to beat USC’s ass.
USC’s Motivation: Low – Nothing ventured, nothing gained. This team actually thought they had playoff chances.
Home: USC gets a little bump for home field in San Diego which is about a 2 hour drive south.
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M -3 O/U 53 Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Oklahoma State’s Motivation: Medium High – I think they want to try and beat an SEC team.
Texas A&M’s Motivation: Medium High – Not a great bowl but they are rebuilding for next year with a new coach in Mike Elko.
Home: Texas A&M is only 95 miles away. Give them the full three.
Thursday, Dec. 28
Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College +11 O/U 51 Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts Time: 11 a.m. TV Channel; ESPN
SMU’s motivation: Medium Low – They deserved a much better bowl than this.
Boston College’s Motivation: Medium High – Literally staying at home, but they haven’t went bowling in a while.
Home: Boston College is playing pretty much at home here.
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami (Fla.) -2.5 O/U 41.5 Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York Time: 2:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Rutger’s motivation: High – Good opponent and and close to home.
Miami’s motivation: Medium Low – When is this team ever motivated?
Home: Rutger’s back yard only 47 miles away!
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State -3 O/U 47 Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 5:45 p.m. Channel: ESPN
NC State’s Motivation: High – Great opponent in a great location
Kansas State’s Motivation: Medium – They had higher aspirations this year. Should have not choked against Missouri.
Home: None
Alamo Bowl: No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 12 Oklahoma +3 O/U 47 Location: The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas Time: 9:15 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Arizona’s Motivation: High – Hell yes! Getting to a bowl game and facing Oklahoma is great for this School.
Oklahoma’s Motivation: Low – This team was thinking playoffs until they blew it vs their in state rival.
Kentucky’s Motivation: High – Great game selection for this undeserving team.
Clemson’s Motivation: Medium – Dabo gets his guys up for games even if they are not playoffs.
Home: None
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame -8.5 O/U 44 Location: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas Time: 2 p.m. Channel: CBS
Oregon State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Coach is gone and this team has no conference.
Notre Dame’s Motivation: Medium – They lost some guys but some will stay and try and ball for next year.
Home: None
Liberty Bowl: Memphis vs. Iowa State -8.5 O/U 57.5 Location: Nissan Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Memphis’s Motivation: High – Nice to play a power 5 team in a nice bowl.
Iowa State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not sure what to think of the Clones here. I would personally rather checkout Nash-Vegas myself.
Home: Memphis is only 215 miles away. The Tigers get 2 points.
Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State +2.5 O/U 49 Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas Time: 8 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Missouri’s Motivation: High – They get a BCS Bowl vs Ohio State. Nice reward for a great season.
Ohio State’s Motivation: Medium – Careful here. Everyone thought Ohio State would not be motivated a few years ago in a Rose Bowl vs Utah. What happened?
Home: None
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss vs.No. 10 Penn State -3.5 O/U 49.5 Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Ole Miss’s Motivation: High – Penn State is a good matchup in a great bowl.
Penn State’s Motivation: High – Great bowl for the Bullies of the Big 10.
Home: None
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn -2.5 O/U 50 Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Maryland’s Motivation: High – Great bowl game for this school.
Auburn’s Motivation: High – Hugh Freeze is 5-1 ATS in bowl games. He will get his kids up.
Home: None
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State +14 O/U 45 Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida Time: 4 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Georgia’s Motivation: Medium High – They didn’t accomplish their goals but Kirby might want to prove something here. He has a good Bowl ATS at 8-3.
Florida State’s Motivation: High – Ok, hear me out. The only way to save face here to prove the committee wrong is to play your asses off. The biggest concern here for me is that Mike Norvell is 0-5 ATS in bowl games.
Home: None
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo +3 O/U 44.5 Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona Time: 4:30 p.m. TV Channel: Barstool’s freaking website. OR the CW.
Wyoming’s Motivation: High – Craig Bohl announced his retirement. The kids like him and I think they play hard.
Toledo’s Motivation: Low – Jason Candle is 1-5 ATS in bowl games. I expect a low effort.
Home: None
Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs No. 13 LSU -10.5 O/U 56 Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN2
Wisconsin’s Motivation: High – Beating an SEC team would be a great start to the year.
LSU’s Motivation: Medium Low – Good bowl game but this team had higher aspirations.
Home: None
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa +8.5 O/U 36.5 Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 1 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Tennessee’s Motivation: Medium – Not sure what the big need is here for a big performance against a team with no offense.
Iowa’s Motivation: High – This team earned a great bowl game based on punting the ball better than any team in history.
Home: None
Fiesta Bowl: No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon -16 O/U 65.5 Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona Time: 1 p.m. Channel: ESPN
Liberty’s Motivation: High – Huge bowl game for an undefeated team. Prove it baby.
Oregon’s Motivation: Medium Low – Maybe try to save further embarrassment, but I expect lots of opt outs.
Home: None
CFB Invitational Semifinal – Rose Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan -1.5 O/U 45.5 Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California Time: 5 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Alabama’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Michigan’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Home: None
CFB Invitational Semifinal – Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington +4 O/U 64 Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana Time: 8:45 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Texas’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Washington’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Home: None
Monday, Jan. 8
College Football Final National Invitational Game Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
The Falcons out-gained the Buccaneers 434 to 290 yet lost 29-25. A 1-0 turnover ratio, 9 sacks taken, and poor red zone efficiency got the dirty birds!
The Panthers out-gained the Saints 303 to 207 yards yet lost 28-6. A 2-1 turnover ratio and just poor play calling and QB play killed the Panthers.
We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.
Picks:
Pittsburgh Penguins in Regulation (-135) – DraftKings
Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (-140) – DraftKings
Player Props:
Vincent Trocheck over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-129) – BetRivers
Trocheck has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game.
He’s also gone over this number in each of his last five games at home.
Toronto currently ranks 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.20. On the road, that number jumps up to 32.75. They’ve also given up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Zach Hyman over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-106) – BetRivers
Hyman has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game.
He’s also gone over this number in three of his last five games at home.
Chicago currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.85. On the road, that number drops slightly to 32.36. They’ve also given up the 14th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season.
Against Chicago, Hyman has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in three of his last four matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Mark Scheifele over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-106) – BetRivers
Scheifele has gone over this number in three of his last four games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.75 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game.
He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
San Jose currently ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 36.68. On the road, that number increases slightly to 36.69. They’ve also given up the 5th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.
Against San Jose, Scheifele has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last two matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about College Bowl motivation for every bowl game as well if there will be some home field advantages. Then, we get into the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. After that, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football Playoffs. Finally, Kiev talks some fantasy football Week 15 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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