We have a wonderful show for you today! Eric Eager @EricEager_ from @Sumersports comes on to talk some advanced analytics and a few NFL Games! First, Kiev discusses the NFL trade deadline and how a certain team made a mistake. Next, we get into some college football week 10 with some leans and some Free Plays. After that, Eric comes on and the guys get right into how to understand some of the advanced analytics that get’s tossed around on many shows and podcasts. Then, the guys hit a few NFL games with some plays and some leans. Next, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 7-1 thus far for the 2023 season! Finally, we get into some college and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Fake changing to fact with wooden cubes. ( 3d render )
The Commanders out-gained the Eagles 472 to 374 yet lost 38-31. They won the turnover battle 1-2 but seven penalties, questionable officiating and poor red zone defense, got the Commies.
The Browns out-gained the Seahawks 385 to 362 yet lost 24-20. A 3-2 turnover ratio got the Brownies.
The Chiefs out-gained the Broncos 275 to 240 yet lost 24-9. A massive 5-1 turnover ratio did them in.
The Cardinals yards were mainly garbage time.
The 49ers out-gained the Bengals 460 to 400 yet lost 31-17. A 3-1 turnover ratio did them in.
Georgia Southern only out-gained Georgia State 452 to 447 yet won 44-27. A 3-2 turnover ratio and red zone penalties got the Panthers.
Boston College out-gained Uconn 433 to 222 yet only won 21-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt the spread.
Indiana out-gained Penn State 349 to 342 yet lost 33-24. A 2-1 turnover ratio and explosive plays killed the Hoosiers.
UCF out-gained West Virginia 463 to 450 yet lost 41-28. A 4-1 turnover ratio did them in and horrible rushing defense allowing 286 yards on the ground.
Clemson out-gained NC State 364 to 202 yet lost 24-17. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad plus side of the field got the Tigers.
Virginia out-gained Miami 377 to 276 yet lost 29-26 in OT. They won the turnover battle but 6 sacks and poor special teams got them.
Ohio out-gained Miami OH 363 to 291 yet lost 30-16. A 1-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone and plus side of the field efficiency got the Bobcats.
Cal out-gained USC 527 to 497 yet lost 50-49. A 4-1 turnover ratio and a massive red zone choke got the Bears.
South Alabama out-gained Louisiana 498 to 348 yet lost at home 33-20. A massive 5-0 turnover ratio got the Jags.
Stanford out-gained Washington 499 to 460 yet lost 42-33. They won the turnover battle but just couldn’t be good in the red zone.
Colorado State out-gained Air Force 339 to 297 yet lost 30-13. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone killed the Rams.
The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.
On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with Chris Powers (@CPowers14) about a variety of topics including his start in golf gambling and his job at Golf Digest.
Topics:
You went to the University of Rhode Island to study Journalism. Was your goal always to get into golf-related media or, were you hoping to get your start in any sport?
You got hired by Golf Digest in 2017, can you tell me a little about how that came to be?
At Golf Digest you started as an assistant editor and worked your way up to become a full-time staff writer in 2021. Can walk us through that process?
Now as a full-time staff writer, you cover a variety of topics across the golf landscape. However, the weekly article I’m most interested in is the Gambling Preview. You and several other prominent figures in the golf gambling space collaborate to offer your best bets. When did these articles start and how did this idea for these articles come to be?
You’re one of the hosts on The Loop Podcast, along with Alex Meyers and Steve Hennessey. The podcast started in 2020 and was originally a golf gambling-only podcast. Since then, it’s expanded to cover a wide range of topics. How did that podcast start and what made you transition away from only gambling coverage?
Favorite Tournament/ Course?
Major
Outside a Major
Course You’ve personally played
How do you approach a tournament?
First thing you look at (Oddsboard or research?)
Website for Stats (Betsperts, Fantasy National, Rick Run Good, DataGolf)
Any content you consume weekly from fellow gamblers?
After a brief hiatus following the ZOZO Championship, the PGA Tour returns. The World Wide Technology Championship takes place this week at El Cardonal at Diamante. This will be the first PGA Tour event on a Tiger Woods designed course.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The World Wide Technology Championship is the fifth event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
Ludvig Aberg is the favorite for this week’s event as he searches for his first PGA Tour victory. In his last two starts, he lost in a five-man playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship and finished T13 at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Maverick McNealy returns to action on the PGA TOUR for the first time since the RBC Canadian Open. He took some time off as he had missed the cut in three of his last four starts.
Michael Block will also tee it up for the sixth time on TOUR this season. He finished T15 at the PGA Championship, the highest by a club professional since 1986.
This is the second playing of the World Wide Technology Championship this season, but the first at El Cardonal Golf Course at Diamante. This also is the TOUR’s third stop in Mexico this season, after the Mexico Open at Vidanta, won by Tony Finau, was played in April.
In 2007, El Camaleon became the home of the Mayakoba Golf Classic but as mentioned before the El Cardonal Golf Course at Diamante will play host to the event. In 2022, El Camaleon was added to the roster for the LIV Golf League. Due to the legal battle that was happening back then, the PGA decided to end its relationship with Mayakoba.
El Cardonal opened in 2014, the first course completed by Woods’ TGR design firm. It’s the second course on the property as “The Dunes Course”, designed by Davis Love III, opened in 2009. In addition to designing El Cardonal, Tiger Woods also designed The Oasis Short Course which is a 12-hole par-three course at Diamante.
This WWT Championship was originally an alternate event being held the same week as the WGC Match Play event. It was the first PGA Tour event to ever be held outside the US and Canada. The first six editions of this event were played in February however, in 2013, the event moved to November where it has remained. When it was moved to November this tournament also became a primary event with the full FedEx Cup points offered.
In 2021, World Wide Technology became the sponsor and will retain rights until 2027.
Most Wins at Event:
2 – Viktor Hovland (2021, 2020)
72-Hole Record:
261 – Viktor Hovland (2021), Russell Henley (2022)
18-Hole Record :
61, Roland Thatcher (3rd round, 2008)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
El Cardonal at Diamante is a Par 72 that plays 7,452 yards. The layout is pretty standard with four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. The landscape of the course is made up of dramatic long-range views of the Pacific Ocean, natural arroyos, mature vegetation, and native dunes. El Cardonal’s design was influenced by the old-style courses of Southern California Tiger Woods grew up playing. This course is going to place a premium on approach shots this week as he was quoted as saying “I set up the golf strategy to make golfers think and make choices. Regardless of your handicap, there are going to be different ways to play every hole. Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider.”
The four Par 3’s range between 154 yards and 208 yards.
No. 2, 208 yards, Par 3: This downhill, downwind par 3 leads to a spacious green situated in a depression encircled by dunes. The contours around the punch bowl-style green can guide balls onto the putting surface. However, given the green’s generous size, pin placement will determine the length of the birdie putt. A menacing bunker, a foreshortened bunker looks closer to the green than it is and protects the center of the green.
No. 16, 154 yards, Par 3: As the shortest par 3 on the course, this hole introduces drama near the round’s end. Golfers face an “all or nothing” carry tee shot to a green nestled at the confluence of two arroyo canyons. With three distinct levels, the green requires precision from a short iron to reach the pin.
Most of the ten Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 10 is the shortest listed at 344 yards with the longest being No. 7, just under 490 yards.
No. 5, 438 yards, Par 4: After a change in direction, playing with the prevailing wind introduces a new challenge: a desert arroyo. Carrying the right fairway bunkers near the arroyo yields an open approach to the green. Shots aimed leftward must carry a bunker short of the green. The sandy arroyo protects the green’s right side, and an elevated pin area at the back demands a precise and bold approach.
No. 8, 474 yards, Par 4: A sandy arroyo splits the tee, landing area, and green, shaping the strategic element of this hole. The “T”-shaped green features challenging pin positions, with bunkering on the back left, back right, and narrow front sections. Favoring the right side of the fairway near the arroyo provides a better angle for attacking back-left pins while targeting the left fairway bunker sets up an approach to back-right pins.
The four Par 5’s are No. 1, 6, 14, and 18. No 6 is the only Par 5 that is greater than 600 yards.
No. 6, 601 yards, Par 5: Ascending from the dunes, this lengthy par 5 requires a strategic approach due to the wide “M” shaped green protected by a large central bunker. Optimal angles for pin placements on the right side of the green are best approached from the right side of the second landing area, accessed from the left side of the first landing area, and vice versa for left pin placements. A large-crowned area in the middle of the fairway adds to the challenge off the tee.
No. 14, 554 yards, Par 5: Designed around a narrow, sandy tributary of a larger arroyo, this hole challenges golfers with a “cape” tee shot. Aggressive players can carry the arroyo on the left for a shorter second shot. Playing to the right leaves a longer approach. The second landing area features a central sand ribbon, dividing it into left and right sections. Opting for the left side sets up a more straightforward approach to the green, while the right section requires negotiating a desert plum guarding the green’s right side.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 5, 8, 14
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Tiger Woods stated, “Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider.”
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
There are only a few courses on the PGA Tour rotation that feature Paspalum greens. This type of grass is mainly used in tropical to temperate coastal locations. Hence it’s used at Grand Reserve Golf Club (Puerto Rico Open), Corales Golf Course (Corales Puntacana Championship), and Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open at Vidanta). Just like with any putting surface, whether it be Bentgrass, Bermudagrass, Poa annua, or even Fescue, certain players have their preferences and perform better.
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s range between 200 – 225 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x6)
Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 5’s range between 550 – 600 Yard
Birdies or Better Gained
While there are a few challenging holes on this golf course, the setup is pretty straightforward. As we’ve seen with other resort courses in Mexico, the winning score should be around -20. I expect this week’s event to turn into a “birdie-fest” with players needing to take advantage of every scoring opportunity.
Driving Distance
The course is pretty wide open this week so distance is going to be more important than accuracy off the tee
Comparable Courses and Event History
Since this is a new course that we’ve never seen before, we’ll have to rely on comparable courses
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 132 players competing in this year’s World Wide Technology Championship. Only five of the world’s top fifty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Ludvig Aberg (+900) has been playing some great golf following the Ryder Cup finishing T2 (Sanderson Farms Championship) and T13 (Shriners Children’s Open) in his last two PGA Tour events. This will be his first appearance at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Cameron Young (+1100) will play in his first FedExCup Fall Event. His last start on the PGA Tour was back in August at the BMW Championship. This will be his first appearance at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Sahith Theegala (+1600) will make his first appearance at the World Wide Technology Championship. He recently won his first PGA Tour event in Napa at the Fortinent Championship. In his last four starts, he hasn’t finished outside the top 20.
Stephan Jaeger (+2500) played in the World Wide Technology Championship three times before with his best finish being T16 (2018). Since the Mexico Open, Jaeger has not missed a cut (15 events) including six top 20 finishes during that span.
Lucas Glover (+2500) will play in his first FedExCup Fall Event. His last start on the PGA Tour was back in August at the TOUR Championship. In his last four starts, he hasn’t finished outside the top 25 including two victories. He’s played in the World Wide Technology Championship four times before with his best finish being T5 (2020).
Previous Winners in the Field:
Matt Kuchar (’18), Patton Kizzire (’17), Charley Hoffman (’14), Brian Gay (’08)
Notable Withdraws:
Kevin Streelman (COVID-19), Joel Dahmen (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
World Wide Technology Championship
World Wide Technology Championship
Mayakoba Golf Classic
Mayakoba Golf Classic
Mayakoba Golf Classic
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Thomas Detry
T15
T22
–
–
–
Maverick McNealy
T10
T11
T12
T26
–
Matt Kuchar
T27
T22
–
T14
1
Adam Long
MC
T22
T3
T2
–
Joel Dahmen
T3
T45
T20
T6
T41
Austin Eckroat
T38
–
T12
–
–
Lucas Glover
T38
–
T5
–
–
Troy Merritt
T3
T15
T40
–
–
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
World Wide Technology Championship
World Wide Technology Championship
Mayakoba Golf Classic
Mayakoba Golf Classic
Mayakoba Golf Classic
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Kramer Hickok
MC
MC
–
MC
T29
Charley Hoffman
T42
MC
T46
MC
MC
Peter Malnati
–
MC
MC
T58
MC
Luke List
–
MC
MC
MC
MC
Roberto Diaz
–
T45
MC
MC
MC
Michael Gligic
MC
–
MC
MC
–
Nick Watney
–
MC
MC
MC
–
Sebastian Vazquez
MC
–
–
MC
MC
Scott Harrington
–
–
MC
T72
–
Michael Kim
MC
–
MC
MC
–
Mackenzie Hughes
–
–
–
MC
MC
Isidro Benitez
MC
–
MC
–
–
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Russell Henley (-23) – El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
Price: 55-1
2021: Viktor Hovland (-23) – El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
Price: 18-1
2020: Viktor Hovland (-20) – El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
Price: 22-1
2019: Brendon Todd (-20) – El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
Price: 110-1
2018: Matt Kuchar (-22) – El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
Price: 60-1
Facts & Figures:
Five of the last six winners at the World Wide Technology Championship had recorded a top 5 finish in one of their previous five starts.
Nine of the last ten winners had played in this event before winning it.
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Russell Henley
T45 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T35 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T5 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
2021: Viktor Hovland
T18 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T44 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T49 – BMW PGA Championship (DPWT)
T5 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T17 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2020: Viktor Hovland
T15 – Vivint Houston Open (PGA)
T47 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
T12 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T13 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T3 – DP World Tour Championship (DPWT)
2019: Brendon Todd
1 – Bermuda Championship (PGA)
T28 – Houston Open (PGA)
MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
2018: Matt Kuchar
T57 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T23 – Emirates Australian Open (AUS)
T30 – Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (EUR)
T43 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
T60 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2022: Russell Henley
2021 – T56
2020 – MC
2019 – MC
2018 – T29
2021: Viktor Hovland
2020 – 1
2019 – MC
2018 – MC
2020: Viktor Hovland
2019 – MC
2018 – MC
2019: Brendon Todd
2016 – MC
2014 – T49
2009 – MC
2018: Matt Kuchar
2016 – T68
2008 – T3
2007 – T18
Picks (Outrights):
Beau Hossler (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
J.J. Spaun (+3500) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Mark Hubbard (+5500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Taylor Pendrith (+5500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Taylor Montgomery (+6500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.13 to win 8.45 Units
Brandon Wu (+7500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units
Vince Whaley (+10000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.12 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Champ (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Callum Tarren (+250) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Matthias Schmid (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Adam Long (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Total Risk on the World Wide Technology Championship: 5.12 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
