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World Series Betting – Maximizing Value

The World Series is upon us. Series Prices: Texas -170, Arizona +150

The likely duo we were all expecting at the start of the MLB playoffs right? Texas vs Arizona. I can’t say I predicted it in any way shape or form. I thought the Rangers were done when Degrom went down. Then I thought they were done again with Scherzer getting hurt. The right pieces stepped up and their offense with their 3rd best MLB OPS has led the way to get to this point. Arizona has been led this post-season by the pitching staff and their 3.23 ERA. That being said I just don’t trust either of these teams enough to take a full series side at current prices, and hey it’s baseball anything can happen. What I don’t believe will happen is a pitcher winning World Series MVP. Neither team seems destined to shorten the rotation so far. The Snakes ran out a bullpen crew in Game 4 against the Phillies in a must win game, and the Rangers went Heaney into Dunning as Andrew exploded early in game 4 against the Astros. I just don’t think we see Gallen or Eovaldi in Game 4 unless one team is down 3-0.

So if pitchers aren’t getting the MVP and I’ve got a lean to a side, how can I bet the World Series to maximize value? I’m placing MVP bets on some key bats on the side I like.  Feel free to message me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you want to know which side I’m betting. Below are the bets I’d make depending on who you like. Use a Dutching tool to maximize value and get some plus money on whatever side is your lean. Is it possible someone else wins MVP? Sure, but my money is on one of the guys below. Remember you’re only betting one grouping. Let’s get a winner!

Texas: Garcia +500, Seager +525, Garver +1800

Arizona: Carroll +950, Marte +1000, Walker +1500, Gurriel +2500.

Remember to check back here next week for my Breeder’s Cup Preview – We’ve cleaned up at the Breeder’s Cup three straight years!

 

 

NHL Preview & Picks – October 26th, 2023

We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

Colorado Avalanche @ Pittsburgh Penguins

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Colorado Avalanche: 6-0-0, 1st Central (4-0-0 Away)
  • Pittsburgh Penguins: 2-4-0, 8th Metropolitan (1-2-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Colorado Avalanche -142 -148 -1.5 (+180) o6.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh Penguins +120 +124 +1.5 (-218) u6.5 (+105)

 

Goalies:

  • Colorado Avalanche – Alexandar Georgiev: 6-0-0, 1.98 GAA, 0.93 SV% [CONFIRMED]
  • Pittsburgh Penguins – Tristan Jarry: 1-3-0, 2.81 GAA, 0.892 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Seattle Kraken @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Seattle Kraken: 2-4-1, 5th Pacific (1-2-1 Away)
  • Carolina Hurricanes: 3-4-0, 5th Metropolitan (1-0-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Seattle Kraken +160 +164 +1.5 (-162) o6.5 (+102)
Carolina Hurricanes -192 -198 -1.5 (+136) u6.5 (-122)

 

Goalies:

  • Seattle Kraken – Joey Daccord: 2-0-1, 2.86 GAA, 0.898 SV% [CONFIRMED]
  • Carolina Hurricanes – Frederik Andersen: 2-0-0, 4.12 GAA, 0.855 SV% [UNCONFIRMED]

 

Winnipeg Jets @ Detroit Red Wings

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Winnipeg Jets: 3-3-0, 4th Central (1-1-0 Away)
  • Detroit Red Wings: 5-1-1, 2nd Atlantic (3-0-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Winnipeg Jets -105 -122 -1.5 (+200) o6.5 (-102)
Detroit Red Wings -115 +102 +1.5 (-245) u6.5 (-118)

 

Goalies:

  • Winnipeg Jets – Connor Hellebuyck: 3-2-0, 3.38 GAA, 0.881 SV% [CONFIRMED]
  • Detroit Red Wings – James Reimer: 2-0-0, 1.0 GAA, 0.963 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders

  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Ottawa Senators: 3-3-0, 6th Atlantic (0-1-0 Away)
  • New York Islanders: 2-2-1, 6th Metropolitan (2-1-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Ottawa Senators +105 +110 +1.5 (-230) o6.5 (+102)
New York Islanders -125 -130 -1.5 (+190) u6.5 (-122)

 

Goalies:

  • Ottawa Senators – Joonas Korpisalo: 1-2-0, 3.62 GAA, 0.872 SV% [CONFIRMED]
  • New York Islanders – Ilya Sorokin: 2-1-1, 2.99 GAA, 0.898 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 4-2-0, 3rd Atlantic (2-1-0 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 4-0-1, 2nd Central (2-0-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Toronto Maple Leafs +105 +102 +1.5 (-245) o6 (-115)
Dallas Stars -125 -122 -1.5 (+200) u6 (-105)

 

Goalies:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs – Joseph Woll: 2-1-0, 1.44 GAA, 0.957 SV% [CONFIRMED]
  • Dallas Stars – Scott Wedgewood: 1-0-0, 3.87 GAA, 0.900 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers

  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • New York Rangers: 4-2-0, 1st Metropolitan (3-1-0 Away)
  • Edmonton Oilers: 1-4-1, 7th Pacific (0-1-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Rangers -120 -130 +1.5 (+190) o6 (-120)
Edmonton Oilers +100 +110 -1.5 (-230) u6 (+100)

 

Goalies:

  • New York Rangers – Igor Shesterkin: 3-2-0, 2.66 GAA, 0.897 SV% [UNCONFIRMED]
  • Edmonton Oilers – Stuart Skinner: 0-1-1, 4.29 GAA, 0.814 SV% [UNCONFIRMED]

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Colorado Avalanche (-141) – Caesars
    • Colorado has started the season off strong winning their first six games. They’re 2nd in GF/GP and 3rd in GA/GP. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has had a slow start to the season going 2-4 through their first six games. They’ve been mediocre on both offense and defense. The biggest advantage for Colorado tonight is their goaltender. Alexandar Georgiev currently leads the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +8.2. Tristan Jarry, the expected starter for Pittsburgh tonight ranks 54th with a -1.6 GSAx.

 

  • William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-112) – BetRivers
    • Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.3 shot attempts per game.
    • Dallas currently ranks 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.20. They’ve also given up the most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.
    • In three of his last four matchups against the Stars, Nylander has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal.

 

  • San Jose Sharks/ Tampa Bay Lightning over 6.5 (-110) – FanDuel
    • While I expect the Lightning to provide the majority of scoring in this matchup, the Sharks should be able to contribute 2-3 to the total. Tampa Bay ranks 21st in GA/Gp averaging 3.43. Jonas Johansson, who’s the expected start for the Bolts tonight has allowed three or more goals in three of his last four starts. The Shark’s defense, which ranks 26th in GA/GP averaging 3.67 should be no match for Tampa Bay’s offense who’s been red hot as of late. San Jose’s expected starter, Mackenzie Blackwood has also allowed three or more goals in three of his last four starts.

 

[JOEL HOFER HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AS THE STARTER FOR ST. LOUIS, IGNORE THIS PLAY]

  • St. Louis Blues/ Calgary Flames Under 6.5 (-134) – FanDuel
    • Calgary has struggled to start the season with a 2-4-1 record. They have 8th highest Expected Goals For (13.34) but have only scored 11. Opposite of that they rank 16th in Expected Goals Against (11.3) but have given up 19, which is the worst Goal differential in the NHL. The good news is Markstrom is expected to get the start tonight for Calgary who’s been the better goalie of the two. St. Louis has also had a slow start to the season with a 2-2-1 record. The Blues have been great defensively this season, but they have struggled on offense. They have the worst Expected Goals For (8.16) in the NHL and have only scored 8. While Calgary has struggled defensively, the Blues haven’t shown any signs of improving on offense. The Blues should also be able to shut down the Flames up front, especially with Binnington in net who ranks 7th in GSAx with a +4.2.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Brayden Point over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-145) – DraftKings
    • Point has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.6 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game.
    • San Jose currently ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 38.5. They’ve also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers.
    • In three of his last four matchups against the Sharks, Point has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal.

 

  • Reilly Smith over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-166) – DraftKings
    • Smith has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.7 shots on goal and 4.0 shot attempts per game.
    • Colorado currently ranks 11th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 28.67. However, that number increases to 31.75 on the road. They’ve also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
    • In five of his last six matchups against the Avalanche, Smith has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal.

 

  • Mike Matheson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings/ PointsBet
    • Matheson has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.3 shots on goal and 4.67 shot attempts per game.
    • Columbus currently ranks 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.17. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.
    • In four of his last five matchups against the Blue Jackets, Matheson has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal.

 

  • Scott Laughton over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-175) – DraftKings/ BetMGM
    • Laughton has gone over this number in five of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.7 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game.
    • Minnesota currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.17. They’ve also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Centers.
    • In each of his last three matchups against the Wild, Laughton has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Betting Prop – Sports Betting – 12-2 in Props

@theoddsbreakers

#sportsbetting #props #tiktokbetting #freepicks #freeplays #Thursdaynightfootball #bucs #bills

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145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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Quick Nine with Geoff Ulrich

The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.

On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind) about a variety of topics including his start in golf gambling and his job at DraftKings Network.

 

Topics:

  1. I won’t ask any personal questions but can you tell me about your introduction to gambling and more specifically golf betting?
  2. Off that, how did you get into sports gambling writing?
  3. For golf betting, you focus on the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) aspect of things? There are obviously several ways to bet on golf but how did DFS capture your attention? 
  4. You’re a contributor/ writer for the DraftKings Network, can you tell me a little about how that came to be? 
  5. Favorite Tournament/ Course
    • Major 
    • Outside a Major
    • Course you personally played
  6. How do you approach a tournament?
      • First thing you look at (Oddsboard or research?)
      • Website for Stats (Betsperts, Fantasy National, Rick Run Good, DataGolf)
      • Any content you consume weekly from fellow gamblers?
        • Articles, Podcasts, Twitter
  7. In terms of constructing your DFS lineup for each event, is there a specific process you follow or does it vary each week?
  8. Common Mistake Golf Betters make?
    • Maybe a personal experience or one you’ve seen consistently
  9. Advice for first Time Golf Betters?
    • Advice for breaking into the industry?

 

Video Link:

 

Twitter/ X Handles:

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

Podcast 79 – 23 – Happy Halloween with Brad Powers – NFL Week 8 – College Football Week 9 – Sports Betting

Time captioned below:  We have a freakishly great show for you today!  Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports comes on to break down a spooky week of college football.   First, Kiev discusses a saying that you should distant yourself from in sports betting.   Next, Kiev gets into NFL week 8 with some Free Plays and some leans. After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 6-1 thus far for the 2023 season!  Then, Brad comes on and the guys get right into some market questions and some teams that might have some value over the next few weeks.  After that, the guys get into some of the best value as well as the biggest games in college football week 9!  Finally, we get into some college and NFL sharp money movement.  Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

0 – 5:35 intro and info
5:36 – 39:30 – NFL Week 9
39:31 – 1:44:20 – College Football Week 9
1:44:21 – 1:47:00 – Sharp Money

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NFL Week 8 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • The Patriots could let down some at Miami after beating the Bills.
  • The Ravens could be a little flat at the Cardinals next week.
  • The Giants could soften back up against the Jets this week.

Get up Spots:

  • The Chargers could raise some hell hosting the Bears this week.
  • The Dolphins would like to punish the Patriots after a loss to Philly.
  • The Lions need to get right hosting the Raiders after that ugly showing.
  • The Bengals coming off a bye could do right at the 49ers.
  • The Titans coming off the bye hosting Atlanta is a big get up spot.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • The Chiefs could look past the Broncos to the Dolphins next week.

College Football Week 9 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Ohio State at Wisconsin is more of a flat spot in their schedule after beating Penn State.
  • Minnesota could underestimate Michigan State after beating Iowa outright.
  • Both Virginia and Miami have conflicting let down spots vs each other.

Get Up Spots:

  • Penn State better get up vs Indiana after a rough loss.
  • Tennessee better wake up at Kentucky but they are coming off the bye.
  • Wisconsin has a chance to really make a statement vs Ohio State.
  • Colorado has a chance to do something off the bye at UCLA.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Washington looking past @ Stanford to USC is possible.
  • Kansas State looking past Houston to Texas is one.
  • Texas looking past BYU to Kansas State is possible.

NFL Week 7 Misleading Final Scores

The Saints out-gained the Jaguars 407 to 330 yet lost 31-24.   They won the turnover battle at 2-1 but terrible red zone play from Derek Carr and some pass catchers got the Saints.

The Colts out-gained the Browns 456 to 316 yet lost 39-38.    A 4-2 turnover ratio and massively biased officiating from Ron Torbert got the the Colts bad.  About 14 point swing.

The Rams out-gained the Steelers 354 to 300 yet lost 24-17.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone and special teams got the Rams.

 

College Football Week 8 Misleading Final Scores and Key Injuries

Sam Houston out-gained FIU 410 to 331 yet lost in overtime 33-27.   Equal turnovers at 1 but horrible red zone offense go the Bearkats.

Rutgers only out-gained Indiana 315 to 279 yet won 31-14.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and a special teams punt block TD killed the Hoosiers.

Ohio State’s game vs Penn State was a ref show.  No adjustment either way.

Cincinnati out-gained Baylor 450 to 396 yet lost 32-29.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor special teams killed the Bearcats.

UAB out-gained Memphis 381 to 352 yet lost 45-21.  A massive 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Akron’s yards were mainly garbage vs Bowling Green.

Louisiana Monroe’s yards were mainly garbage time.

Pitt out-gained Wake Forest 414 to 323 yet lost 21-17.   They also won the turnover battle 2-0.  This is very rare, but 13 penalties really hurt the Panthers.

Tennessee out-gained Alabama 404 to 358 yet lost 34-20.  They won the turnover battle 2-1, but an 8-1 penalty ratio, poor special teams, and a second half choke killed the Vols.

North Carolina out-gained Virginia 490 to 436 yet lost at home 31-27.   They won the turnover battle 2-1 yet poor field position and red zone defense hurt the Tar Heels.

Most of Texas Tech’s yards were garbage to no adjustment in the BYU game.

ASU outgained Washington 341 to 288 yet lost 15-7.  They won the turnover battle 3-1, but poor plus side of the field execution hurt the Sun Devils.

Key Injuries:

QB Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina hurt lower body.  Is day to day.

QB Quinn Evers left the Texas game with an injury to his shoulder.  Could be bad.

QB Tyler Van Dyke didn’t play for Miami after having his knee drained.  Day to day.

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 8

Bye Weeks:  none

Key Injuries:

  • QB DeShaun Watson is still hurting.
  • TE Luke Musgrave hurt his ankle.
  • TE Gerald Everette hurt his quad.
  • RB Jerome Ford with an Ankle injury.
  • WR DK Metcalf was a late scratch and hurt in practive.

Waiver Wire:

  • WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling had three receptions and a TD for KC.
  • WR Mecole Hardman for the Chiefs.
  • WR Julio Jones for the Eagles could be a speculative add.
  • QB Tyson Bagent is a speculative pickup right now.
  • QB Tyrod Taylor is looking like he might take the reigns at some point.
  • QB PJ Walker might be the man in Cleveland for a while.
  • RB Emari Demercado for Arizona had the most carries at 13.
  • TE Dalton Kincaid had 8 receptions.
  • WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba had 4 receptions and a TD.
  • QB Darrell Henderson is the guy in LA for the Rams.
  • RB Pierre Strong for the Ford Injury.
  • QB Kyler Murray for the Cardinals will be back sometime.

Non-Starters trending up for week 9:

  • WR Darnell Mooney with a new QB might be good vs the Chargers weak defense.
  • WR George Pickens might do something vs Jacksonville’s defense.
  • WR Joshua Palmer vs the Bears defense could be huge.
  • WR Gabe Davis vs Tampa’s poor defense might be big.
  • RB Rachaad White vs Buffalo’s bad run D is a play.
  • RB Dalvin Cook against the Giants bad Defense might wake up.
  • WR Robert Woods against Carolina is appealing.
  • QB CJ Stroud vs Carolina is a big start.

Busts:

  • RB Kenneth walker vs Cleveland’s D is a miss.
  • QB Jordan Love is a bust and needs to be benched or dropped.
  • QB Sam Howell vs the Eagles is dangerous.
  • WR Terry McLauren vs the Eagles isn’t good.
  • RB Bijan Robinson vs the Titans run D isn’t good.
  • WR Marquise Brown vs the Ravens is dangerous.
  • WR Puka Nakua vs Dallas is a bad matchup.
  • RB Darrell Henderson vs the Cowboys might not work.
  • WR Michael Pittman vs the Saints isn’t great.

Nasty Sleeper – Marquez Valdez Scantling vs Denver’s defense.  I think they might actually try and guard Kelce today.