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We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards is back to break down some MASSIVE college football games and a little UFC! First, Kiev talks about the trends leading into this weekend. Next, Brian comes on and the guys get right into the top college football teams as well as conferences. Then, Brian and Kiev talk about a few teams that might have some value going forward. After that, the guys talk about some of the biggest games in college football for week 8 with some Free plays! Finally, we get into some College Football sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Bears out-gained the Vikings 275 to 220 yet lost 19-13. A 3-1 turnover ratio and poor quarterback play hurt the Bears.
The Falcons out-gained the Commies 402 to 193 yet lost 24-16. A 3-0 turnover ratio, bad quarterback play, and horrible red zone coaching and execution got the dirty birds.
The Seahawks out-gained the Bengals 381 to 214 yet lost 17-13. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad 4th down efficiency got the quacks.
The Colts out-gained the Jaguars 354 to 233 yet lost 37-20. Some of those yards garbage but Garner Minshew thew three picks and lost a fumble to destroy the Ponies.
The Saints out-gained the Texans 430 to 297 yet lost 20-13. A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor field position/special teams hurt the Saints. 0/2 in 4th down as well.
The Rams only out-gained the Cardinals 382 to 345 yet won 26-9. A 2-1 turnover ratio helped and bad red zone offense hurt the Cardinals.
The Eagles out-gained the Jets 348 to 244 yet lost 20-14. A 4-0 turnover ratio got them bad.
Louisiana Tech out-gained Middle Tennessee State 419 to 353 yet lost 31-23. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the Bulldogs.
West Virginia out-gained Houston 546 to 393 yet lost 41-39. A Hail Mary, a 1-0 turnover ratio and some bad penalties got them.
SMU only out-gained East Carolina 334 to 290 yet won 31-10. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone play got the Pirates.
Utah State out-gained Fresno State 568 to 461 yet lost 37-32. A 2-0 turnover ratio and 8 pentalties hurt the Aggies.
Rutgers out-gained Michigan State more than 295 to 245 yet only won by three. They took three 10 yards knees at the game and could have won by more.
Georgia Southern was only out-gained 384 to 368 yet lost 41-12. A 3-0 turnover ratio and very poor red zone killed the Eagles.
Wisconsin out-gained Iowa blah blah blah. Happens every game to these Hawkeyes. The Badgers lost their QB to injury.
Navy and Charlotte both had 265 yards yet Navy won 14-0. A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone execution killed the 49ers.
Maryland out-gained Illinois 380 to 337 yet lost 27-24. Poor red zone defense hurt the Terps.
Oregon out-gained Washington 541 to 415 yet lost 36-33. They won the turnover margin but just poor weird coaching by Danny Lanning as well as bad red zone killed the Ducks.
Louisville out-gained Pittsburgh 444 to 288 yet lost 38-21. A 3-0 turnover ratio including a pick 6 got them bad.
Texas Tech out-gained Kansas State 480 to 435 yet lost 38-21. A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt them as well as a qb injury.
Texas State out-gained Louisiana Monroe 452 to 285 yet lost 21-20. A 1-0 turnover ratio and horrible Red Zone on offense got the spread for the Bobcats.
USC out-gained Notre Dame but many of the yards were garbage time. The 5 turnovers killed the Trojans.
UCLA out-gained Oregon State 450 to 415 yet lost 36-24. A 3-1 turnover ratio including a pick 6 killed the Bruins.
UAB out-gained UTSA 364 to 360y et lost 41-20. A 3-1 turnover ratio and 11 penalties got the Blazers.
Key Injuries:
QB Behren Morton from Texas Tech hurt his shoulder and left the game.
QB Tanner Mordecai from Wisconsin hurt his hand and had to leave the game in the 2nd quarter. He is month to month.
QB Tai Lavatai from Navy left the game with a shoulder injury.
WR Kobe Paysour from North Carolina out with a foot injury for a while at least.
RB Durell Robinson from Charlotte likely out for the season.
TE Brock Bowers from Georgia sprained his ankle and is out 4-6 weeks.
We went 2-1 last night with Calgary moneyline as our lone loss. We have nine games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Same Game Parlay: Carolina Hurricanes moneyline/ Sebastian Aho over 2.5 Shots on Goal – (+109) – FanDuel
The Hurricanes face one of the worst teams in the league tonight, the San Jose Sharks. Carolina’s coming off a bad loss against Anaheim on Sunday so it should be a nice spot for them to get back on track.
Sebastian Aho has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal twice in the first three games of the season. During that span, he averaged 2.67 shots on goal and 4.33 shot attempts per game. San Jose ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 42.0. Aho also went over this number in both matchups against the Sharks last season.
Evan Bouchard over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – FanDuel
Evan Bouchard has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in both games to start the season. During that span, he averaged 5.0 shots on goal and 8.5 shot attempts per game. Nashville ranks 14th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.0. The Predators also allowed the 6th most shots on goal to Defensemen last year. In his four previous matchups against Nashville, Bouchard has gone over this number three times.
Pierre-Luc Dubois over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-122) – FanDuel
Pierre-Luc Dubois returns to Winnipeg tonight to face his former team. In the first two games of the season, Dubois has gone over this number once. During that span, he’s averaging 2.5 shots on goal and 4.5 shot attempts per game.
Winnipeg has been one of the most penalized teams to start the season meaning Los Angeles should have plenty of time on the man-advantage. With Pierre-Luc Dubois on that top Power Play, he should have an increased role tonight.
Buffalo Sabres moneyline (-125) – DraftKings
The Sabres have started the season going 0-2 losing games to both New York teams. Buffalo’s offense has been struggling to start the season only averaging 1.50 GF/GP. However, they’ll face a team tonight that should allow them the perfect chance to right the ship. As expected, the loss of Andrei Vasilevksiy has impacted the Lighting. Through their first three games, they rank 30th in GA/GP averaging 4.67.
Both of these teams haven’t been great to start the year but Buffalo’s speed up front should be able to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defensive unit. In terms of netminders, Buffalo should also have the upper hand in this matchup. While Devon Levi hasn’t been as sharp as he was last year he’s proven he can turn things around. Jonas Johansson, who was drafted by the Sabres, has done the opposite proving he’s unreliable in net. Through his first two starts this season he has a .889 SV% and 4.09 GAA.
Late Add:
Edmonton Oilers moneyline (-135) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Congrats to all Tom Kim backers at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. He was able to successfully defend his title and will look for the elusive three-peat next season.
Adam Hadwin (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.48 units on the week.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The 2023 ZOZO Championship is the fourth event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
The 5th edition ZOZO Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 5th edition, this will only be the fourth time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the ZOZO Championship took place in California at Sherwood Country Club due to the pandemic travel restrictions.
Keegan Bradley returns to Japan to defend his title at the ZOZO Championship. In addition to winning this event, he also won the Traveler’s Championship. This will be the first time he tees it up since the TOUR Championship.
Sungjae Im returns to action after winning the team gold medal with Si Woo Kim at the Asian Games two weeks ago. He also earned a silver medal in the individual event.
Hideki Matsuyama has not played on TOUR since he withdrew after the first round of the BMW Championship citing a back injury. He also won this event back in 2021.
Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Rickie Fowler return to action after a disappointing trip to Rome.
The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!
The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.
Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.
72-Hole Record:
261, Tiger Woods (2019)
18-Hole Record:
62, Andrew Putnam (Second Round, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.
The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.
Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.
Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.
No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).
No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 78 players competing in this year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Only nine of the world’s top forty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Xander Schauffele (+700) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. He’s finished inside the top-10 twice before at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.
Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. His best finish at this event was in 2021 when he finished T7. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.
Sungjae Im (+1400) has played in this event three times before. His best finish at this event was in 2019 when he finished T3.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Keegan Bradley (’22), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Narashino Country Club
Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Narashino Country Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
Cameron Champ
8
T8
Keegan Bradley
1
T7
T13
Xander Schauffele
T9
T28
T17
T10
Hideki Matsuyama
T40
1
T28
2
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Narashino Country Club
Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Narashino Country Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
Ryo Ishikawa
T63
T51
Shugo Imahira
78
T18
T66
T59
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 40-1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 16-1
2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
Price: 28-1
2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 33-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Keegan Bradley
T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2020: Patrick Cantlay
T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
2019: Tiger Woods
T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2022: Keegan Bradley
2021 – T7
2019 – T13
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – T28
2019 – 2
2020: Patrick Cantlay
Debut at Event
2019: Tiger Woods
Debut at Event
Picks (Outrights):
Sungjae Im (+1400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Keegan Bradley (+2200) – DraftKings
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Cameron Champ (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Svensson (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Joel Dahmen (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: 3.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
