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Week 3 NFL Denver at Miami

By
Eric Rocco
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Denver at Miami -6.5 O/U 48, 1:00pm ET

Sean Peyton and the Broncos hit the road east and head to South Beach for a week 3 clash with Tua, Tyreek and the Fish. This is Denver’s first road game of the season, getting games 1 and 2 of their schedule at home. While Miami started their season with away games in L.A and New England, making Sunday their home opener. Now these were two squads with tons of hype entering the 2023 season, also two teams heading in vastly different directions. Miami has lived up to the hype, currently 2-0 and clicking on many levels. Whereas Denver is still winless and are facing plenty of problems on both sides of the ball.

This is an awful spot for Denver. Why do you ask? Well, you always have the altitude factor playing at Mile High giving the Broncos players an edge in every home game. They were unable to come away with wins in either home game, and now head to Miami to play in the heat. For those not from Florida, truly have no idea the humidity factor playing in Florida in September. Like the Broncos getting that home edge, this situation greatly favors the Dolphin roster. Playing, practicing, and living in this heat is no picnic, but their bodies are surely more acclimated than any of the northern teams.

Now let’s talk X’s and O’s. This is set up to be a long day for Russell and company. Vic Fangio’s defense was able to get to Justin Herbert 3 times in week 1 and got to Mac Jones 4 times in week 2. Yes, I understand the Patriots were without two offensive linemen, but regardless getting to the QB has been no problem for his D. Now he gets to square off with a Denver O-line who has given up 9 sacks in just two weeks. Again, I understand 7 of the 9 came from the Commanders ferocious pass rush, but don’t think for a second Miami is that far behind them. Expect to see Fangio bring pressure on Wilson all game, causing chaos and hopefully a defensive TD or at the very least, short fields for Tua. Also don’t forget this is Fangio’s old team where he was the previous head coach, so I expect him to call an aggressive game with the revenge factor partially being in play.

How will Denver stop the Dolphins offense? Simply put, they won’t. Miami has too much speed on outside for Denver to contain. The second Mike McDaniel senses them consistently dropping back into coverage, he will unleash Mostert who ran for 121 yards in New England last week. Raiders WR Jakobi Myers had a field day week 1 versus Denver, with all their focus on Davante Adams. I expect a similar game Sunday with Denver focusing on stopping Tyreek Hill. Leaving an empty canvas for Waddle to, waddle into the endzone.

Let’s take the fish in week 3, with a strong unit upgrade. We will also throw in a few Waddle receiving props as well. Let’s go Dolphins!

Dolphins -6.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 2.2u to win 2u

Waddle over ___ receiving yards risk ___ to win 0.5u

Waddle *anytime* TD +115 (DraftKings) risk 0.25u to win 0.29u

Correlated Parlay: Dolphins -6.5/over 48. risk 0.2u to win 0.53u

Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…

 

Fantasy Football Week 3

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Key Injuries:

  • WR Odell Beckham left with an ankle sprain.
  • WR Darnell Mooney left with a knee injury.
  • QB Joe Burrow tweeked his calf injury and is day to day.
  • RB David Montgomery left with a thigh injury and is day to day.
  • QB Anthony Richardson is ruled out with a concussion.
  • WR Davante Adams was evaluated with a concussion.
  • WR Jaylen Waddle was ruled out for a concussion check.
  • RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain and will be out three weeks.
  • RB Chase Edmonds was ruled out with a knee injury.
  • TE Logan Thomas was ruled out with a concussion.
  • RB Nick Chubb out for the season with a bad knee injury.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Matt Breida and RB Gary Brightwell for the Saquon Injury.
  • RB Jerome Ford becomes Cleveland’s bell cow.
  • QB Garner Minshew for the Richardson injury.
  • WR Josh Reynolds for the Lions had a monster game.   He will have a good matchup vs the Falcons secondary.
  • WR Tutu Atwell had 13 receptions on 17 targets for the Rams.
  • WR Marvin Mims had fou receptions for 122 yards and a TD vs the Commanders.
  • RB Roschon Johnson for the Bears had a big game and 1 touchdown.
  • WR Robert Woods had 19 targets for the Texans.
  • TE Zach Ertz had 18 targets for the Cardinals.
  • WR Tank Dell had 10 targets and a touchdown for the Texans.
  • WR Chase Claypool for the Mooney injury.
  • RB Zach Moss is the bell-cow for the Colts.
  • RB Kareem Hunt might be picked up by the browns.

Non-starters trending up:

  • RB Raheem Mostert vs Denver’s D good be a good play.
  • RB Jerick McKinnon vs a bad Bears run D.
  • RB Kyren Williams may be the starter now for the Rams.
  • RB Tank Bigsby vs a bad Texans D.
  • RB Gus Edwards for the Ravens might destroy the Colts.
  • WR Tutu Atwell vs the Bengals iffy defense.
  • WR Sky Moore vs a pathetic Bears D.
  • WR Braxton Berrios vs the Broncos poor D.
  • RB AJ Dillon vs the Saints defense.
  • RB Zach Moss is the bell-cow for the Colts and could have a good game.
  • RB Jamal Williams will want to have a game vs his old team the Packers.
  • WR Jordan Addison vs the Chargers will be huge.
  • TE Gerald Everette vs the Vikings is a great matchup.

Busts:

  • RB Derek Henry might be in for it vs that Cleveland defense.
  • RB James Conner vs the Cowboys defense isn’t looking pretty.
  • RB Matt Breida might not do much in San Francisco.
  • QB Daniel Jones vs the Niners is an ugly one.
  • QB Russell Wilson is very benchable and could struggle vs Miami’s D.

Nasty Sleeper:   WR Jordan Addison.  This should be a high scoring game.

Podcast 64 – 23 – College & NFL Football Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 3 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today!   First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some thoughts.  Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend.  Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 4.  Finally, we talk some fantasy football with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Monday Night Free Play – When The Saints Come Marching In

By
Shawn Knoche
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Great start so far to the young NFL season as we sit at 8-4-1 with a few plays left for Monday night.

Looking at one of tonight’s Monday night match-ups for our Free Play as the Saints roll into Charlotte to take on the Panthers. The weather looks good with with 75 degrees and sunny skies. Light variable winds at 6 mph expected.

Current lines sit at the Saints -3 with it getting pushed to -120 at some books so this could hit 3.5 in some places before game time. Saints -175 ML and Panthers +155. The total is at 39.5.

The Saints edged out the Titans by a point at home in week 1 as Mike Vrabel played for the cover. The offense wasn’t overly impressive as they really struggled to run the ball against the Titans. That being said that was the MO of most teams against the Titans in 2022 who struggled much more mightily against the pass. Derek Carr looked comfortable in the passing attack racking up 305 Yards on 33 attempts. His receiving core with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and a healthy Michael Thomas present all sorts of match-up problems for opposing defenses. Their defense looked solid holding Tennessee to 285 total yards and intercepting Ryan Tannenhill three times. They should be able to replicate that script against the Panthers woeful offense.

The Panthers were a two touchdown loser to the Falcons Week 1 despite out-gaining them by 60 yards. Two Bryce young picks and three total turnovers did them in as they were forced in the second half to get away from their game script of running the football. They did have the fourth highest success rate Week 1 rushing the ball, but I think this Saints defense that held Derrick Henry to 63 yards will be a tougher task for them. Bryce Young threw the ball 38 times, but only managed 146 yards which is a paltry 3.84 yards per attempt. The Panthers defense did look good against the Falcons and got stuck defending a very short field following both Bryce Young INTs. I think they will be tough against the Saints running game, but will struggle more this week against Carr and his elite group of receivers than they did against Desmond Ridder. Also they lost starting top CB Jaycee Horn this week who went on IR so matching up with those Saints wideouts will be even tougher.

Let’s break it down. Everything says we should be on the Panthers here from a history standpoint. Early season divisional game. Low scoring expected. Home team getting a Field goal or even 3.5. Sometimes you have to throw history out the window and look at what you’ve seen on the field. Yes, one week is a small sample size, but looking at the Panthers defensive success rate last year and what they improved on in the off-season I don’t see them having the same level of success against the Saints as they did against the Falcons. The Jaycee Horn injury is huge, and if they want to slow down Carr they will need to find a way to get pressure on him up the middle and interrupt his rhythm. More importantly for me in this handicap is the Panthers lackluster offense. Young could not push the ball downfield at all. When your tight end leads the team in receiving with 5 catches for 41 yards you are going to struggle to stretch the defense and help the rushing attach. D.J.Chark is banged up, but expected to play. Adam Thielen is past his prime and has not found any chemistry with Young so far. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard have to be effective for this team to have a chance and the game has to stay within striking distance for them not to abandon the running game. The Saints will not allow that to happen. Bryce Young cannot carry this team to a victory and I think the Saints find enough big plays in this one to force him to try and do that. I’ve got the Saints tonight in what I think will be a 27-10, 24-13 type of contest. Who Dat!

Official Play: Saints -3

Quick Nine with John Haslbauer

By
Patrick Gates
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The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.

On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with John Haslbauer about a variety of topics including his start in golf gambling and his approach to each tournament.

 

Topics:

  1. Can you tell me about your introduction to gambling and more specifically golf betting?
  2. You started your website PGATout.com in 2021 and began writing articles. Two-part question here, 
    • What made you decide to start the website?
    • Did you have any prior experience writing?
  3.  I’ve noticed this year you started to dive deeper into comparable courses in your recent articles. Do you mind telling me more about how you came up with the format for your articles and is there anything section in your article that you really try to expand on each week?
  4. You publish a weekly model in your article each week. Do you mind talking me through your trials and tribulations while solidifying your model? Also is there a specific program you use and did you have prior experience with it?
  5. Favorite Tournament/ Course?
    • Major
    • Outside a Major
    • Course You’ve personally played
  6. How do you approach a tournament?
    • First thing you look at (Oddsboard or research?)
    • Website for Stats (Betsperts, Fantasy National, Rick Run Good, DataGolf)
    • Any content you consume weekly from fellow gamblers?
  7. How do you construct your card?
  8. Common Mistake Golf Betters make?
  9. Any advice for first-time golf betters and breaking into the industry?

 

Video Link:

 

Twitter/ X Handles:

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NFL Week 2 Sunday Funday Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

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63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

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56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

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Seahawks vs Lions -4.5 O/U 47.5

NFL week two is over reaction week and here we are with a team who looked good week one vs a team who looked bad.   So this means that we should be betting the Seahawks right?   WRONG.  The Lions are coming off of that Kansas City win knowing that they could have put that game away earlier without some of those boneheaded mistakes.   Detroit is coming into this game healthy and with extra rest.   Seattle has some pretty bad injuries losing BOTH offensive tackles from last week.   They also have a few linebackers questionable win Devin Bushe and Boye Mafe.  Defensive end Mike Morris is out.   Geno may have some serious problems throwing the ball today.  It is too early to get into stats, but the Lions looked very good moving the ball last week.   They are also unveiling a Barry Sanders statue today at home.  In Detroit’s last ten games, they are 9-1 against the spread.  The Seahawks are 1-9 respectively and maybe still overrated.   The Lions missed the playoffs last year due to Seattle’s win vs the Rams.  Take Detroit.

Lions -4.5 – 2 stars

NFL Week 3 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 12:00PM Pacific

Sharp money on:

  • Bears +3 to +2.5 at the Buccaneers – 64% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Cowboys -7.5 to -9 hosting the Jets – 67% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Titans +3.5 to +3.5 hosting the Chargers – 40% tickets and 61% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Raiders vs Bills under 49.5 to 47 – 67% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Bears vs Buccaneers under 44 to 41.5 – 52% tickets and 68% of the money.
  • Jets vs Cowboys under 49 to 39.5 – 74% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • Browns vs Steelers under 43 to 39.5 – 70% tickets and 96% of the money.

College Football Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Penn State vs Illinois +14.5 O/U 48.5

Big 10 conference play is starting up and this game should be a little closer than this line is proposing.   I do not think that Illinois gets blown out here.   I like how Illinois Coach Brett Beliema knew how to play this team in 2021 when they won in Happy Valley outright.  The fighting Illini slowed that game down with a much worse team.  They essentially muddied it up.  I do not see why Coach B wouldn’t do that again after that Kansas showing from last weekend.  Penn State’s numbers look good thus far but they haven’t played anybody.  According to Jeff Sagarin, Illinois has played the 24th hardest schedule while Penn State played the 120th hardest schedule.  I do not think that West Virginia was a good test, and Penn State had to get a garbage score at the end in order to cover.   Now I know that Penn State has more talent than Illinois, but this is big 10 country, and we all know what many of these games tend to look like.  My power ratings have this a 12 to 13 point game.  Take the Orange and Blue.

Illinois +14.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Kansas State vs Missouri -3.5 O/U 48

I honestly can not figure out why this line is so small here.  We have seen this dog and pony show before.  Missouri went to Manhattan Kansas last year and got blasted 40-12.  This year, the Missouri football squad looks almost as bad as Boston College as the Tigers struggled last week hosting Middle Tennessee State.   Kansas State at least played the Sun Belt champions of last year in Troy and pretty much had their way with them.   The Wildcats are disrespected.  Nobody is talking about this Big 12 championship team while Texas and Oklahoma are getting all of the accolades.  What has changed here for me to think that Missouri is competent enough to lose this game by less than 7 points?   This is the same Tigers team under Eli Drinkwitz that we have experienced for the past four years.   My power ratings have this game Kansas State -11 and I think that might be a bit short.  Take the Cats.

Kansas State -3.5 – 3 stars

College Football Week 3 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 12:00PM Pacific

Sharp money on:

  • Memphis -12.5 to -14.5 hosting Navy – 72% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Iowa State -1 to -3.5 at Ohio – 82% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • Notre Dame -31.5 to -34.5 hosting Central Michigan – 48% tickets and 71% of the money.
  • Oregon State -20.5 to -24.5 hosting San Diego State – 74% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Washington -13.5 to -16.5 at Michigan State – 69% tickets and 89% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Utah State vs Air Force under 48.5 to 46.5 – 54% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • Iowa State vs Ohio under 45.5 to 42.5 – 59% tickets and 78% of the money.
  • FIU vs UCONN under 46 to 40.5 – 81% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • Northwestern vs Duke over 46.5 to 48 – 57% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • JMU vs Troy under 50 to 47.5 – 75% tickets and 95% of the money.

NFL Week 2 Pick

By
Greg Silvestri
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Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Moneyline -122 @Draftkings Sportsbook Risk 3.66 Units To Win 3 Units

Took a 1-1 split last week and looking to get a winner this Sunday as the Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers. There’s a lot of love out there for the Packers right now as they blew out the Bears 38-20 last Sunday. I think that was more of the Bears being a bad football team as they are one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. This will be a much tougher test for the Packers as they are on the road again against a better defense in the Falcons which ranks 6th in DVOA defense. The Packers do have some key injuries to there team as WR Christian Watson is questionable, LB Quay Walker is still in concussion protocol, and RB Aaron Jones and has not practiced at all this week. If Aaron Jones does not go in this game I have a hard time seeing the Packers being successful on the ground as AJ Dillon averaged a lousy 1.5 yards per carry against a bad Bears defense. The Falcons should get pressure on Jordon Love in this game as they had a pressure rate of 33% per dropback and didn’t have to blitz a lot to create pressure last week against the Panthers. If the Falcons stay true to who they are with success on the ground and don’t turn the ball over they should beat the Packers this Sunday. My Power ratings make the Falcons a 3 point favorite in this contest so take the Falcons with confidence on the moneyline.

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