Let Down Spots:
Get Up Spots:
Look Ahead Spots:
None
Let Down Spots:
Get Up Spots:
Look Ahead Spots:
Middle Tennessee State out-gained Jacksonville State 563 to 401 yet lost 45 – 30. A 4-1 turnover ratio did them in.
Ohio State only out-gained Maryland 382 to 302 yet won 37-17. A 2-0 turnover margin and boneheaded Maryland coaching ruined it for the Terps.
Texas out-gained Oklahoma 527 to 486 yet lost 34-30. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
North Texas out-gained Navy 473 to 406 yet lost 27-24. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt the Mean Green.
Rice out-gained UCONN 474 to 319 yet lost 38-31. A 4-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone got the Owls.
ASU out-gained Colorado 392 to 295 yet lost 27-24. Equal turnovers but poor red zone play and 9 penalties got the Sun Devils.
Miami out-gained Georgia Tech 453 to 250 yet lost 23-20. A 5-2 turnover ratio and horrible coaching got the Canes.
TCU out-gained Iowa State 398 to 353 yet lost 27-14. A 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.
Arizona out-gained USC 506 to 365 yet lost 43-41. Equal turnovers at one but 12 penalties got the Wildcats.
Purdue out-gained Iowa 343 to 291 yet lost 20-14. A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense got the Boilermakers.
Key Injuries:
QB Mikey Keene from Fresno State went out with an ankle injury and is week to week.
QB McCae Hillstead from Utah State may miss a week.
TE Max Klare is done for the season for Purdue.
TCU QB Chandler Morris will be out a while.
QB Christian Veilleux: Starter on the depth chart while Phil Jurcovic will be benched.
The Ravens outgained the Steelers 335 to 289 yet lost 17-10. A 3-1 turnover ratio and a flat out 4th quarter choke killed the black birds.
The Chiefs only out-gained the Vikings 333 to 329 yet won 27-20. A 1-0 turnover ratio, poor red zone and bad officiating got the Vikings.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the three games on Opening Night and offer our best bets.
Topics:
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Congrats to all Luke List backers at the Sanderson Farms last week. It was an exciting finish as it came down to a five-man playoff between Luke List, Scott Stallings, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Ludvig Aberg. The last time there was a five-man playoff on TOUR was the 2016 RSM Classic where Norlander was also a participant. List drained a 43-footer to win after he got a perfect read from Aberg’s putt. This could be the start of a trend at this event as we saw Mackenzie Hughes defeat Sepp Straka in a playoff in 2022.
Our best chance last week for an outright was Mark Hubbard (-17). He was tied for the lead on Sunday heading into 16th where he had a birdie opportunity to take the lead. Hubbard would miss that putt and go on to bogey the last two holes. Alex Smalley (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.40 units on the week.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The 2022 Shriners Children’s Open is the third event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
Tom Kim is the defending champion of the Shriners Children’s Open. He finished 24 under par last year which tied the tournament scoring record. Kim became the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to win twice on the PGA TOUR before turning 21 with that victory.
Si Woo Kim will make his first start on the FedExCup Fall series. Most recently he won gold at the Asian Games along with Sungjae Im. This victory was life-changing for both players as they’re now exempt from the two-year mandatory military service that is required in South Korea.
Ludvig Aberg will make his second straight TOUR start this week. Aberg was the favorite last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he finished T2 losing in a five-man playoff. While he is exempt through 2024 he still has plenty on the line as he is currently 135th in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Nicolai Højgaard will make his first start following a victory with the Europeans at the Ryder Cup. In his eight starts on the PGA TOUR in 2023, he had two top-10 finishes including a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Lexi Thompson will become the seventh woman to tee it up on the PGA TOUR. She’ll be the first woman since Brittany Lincicome in 2018 at the Barbasol Championship to play in a PGA TOUR event.
Course Architect:
Comparable Courses & Greens:
TV Information:
Course/ Tournament History:
The Shiners Children’s Open was founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. This event changed names throughout the years but since 2008, Shriner’s Children Hospitals has remained the official sponsor. When they took over the rights that year, TPC Summerlin also became the host course and the event has been held there every year since. Throughout the entirety of the event, it’s always been held in the Las Vegas surrounding area.
TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 and was originally designed by Booby Wood Throughout the years it’s undergone several minor renovations and in 2021, the greens and fairways were completely replaced. The previous greens were A1/A4 bentgrass and the fairways were 419 bermudagrass. Last year, the greens were changed to Dominator bentgrass, and the fairways were changed to Bandera bermudagrass. Looking at the upcoming PGA Tour schedule, this is the only course that features this unique type of putting surface. Other courses have pure bentgrass greens but none that feature this specific seed of bentgrass.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller as a player consultant. It is a Par 71 that plays 7,255 yards which is on the shorter side when compared to other PGA TOUR sourses. The course features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The three Par 5’s are where players need to score if they want to have a chance of winning this event. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. However, as shown by past winners accuracy off the tee is more important than distance.
This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -23/-24.
The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 239 yards. Last year, hole No. 14 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.
No. 17, 196 yards, Par 3: “A challenging and unnerving par-3 plays from 180 to 210 yards downhill, depending on the hole location, with the green guarded closely by a lake on the left and by bunkers on the right. Par is a good score and birdies are rare, should players need to make up ground.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Summerlin with the majority (seven) of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 3 (+0.127).
No. 15, 341 yards, Par 4: “A short, drivable par-4 measuring 320 yards, which most players will attempt to reach with their tee shot. If the tee shot misses the green, an “up and down” birdie is possible, but not easy, due to the severely elevated and undulated green – which is surrounded by five bunkers that regularly attract stray tee shots.”
No. 18, 444 yards, Par 4: “A well-designed and strategic finishing hole measuring 450 yards which moves right to left off the tee. The green is protected on the left by a lake, with the hole protected by the water. An aggressive tee shot with the driver can leave the player just a short iron to a very deep green from front to back. An aggressive tee shot and second shot could lead to a one-putt birdie. Find the water and you will be lucky to make bogey.”
There are three Par 5’s on the course, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. No. 9 was the easiest par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.549 below par. Hole No. 13, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.
No. 16, 560 yards, Par 5: “A relatively downhill par-5 that is reachable with two good shots. The green is guarded by water short of the green, and bunkers beyond. For scratch golfers and TOUR players, only a mid-iron will be necessary for the second shot, with a birdie almost a certainty. The scoring swings will come with balls in the water as well as aggressive second shots hit close to the pin.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players competing in this year’s Shriners Children’s Open. Only three of the world’s top forty players are in the field. This is a weaker field from last year’s event as Cantlay, Homa, and Im were the favorites. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Tom Kim (+1000) won the Shriners Children’s Open in his debut last year. He struggled a bit last year as he was battling a few injuries but had a string finish. In each of the three playoff events, he finished inside the top 25. Since the TOUR Championship, he’s played twice on the DP World Tour finishing T18 at the BMW PGA Championship and T6 at the Cazoo Open de France.
Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished T2 at the Sanderson Farms last week losing to Luke List in a five-man playoff. Before that, he had three consecutive top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour including a win at the Omega European Masters. This will be his first appearance at TPC Summerlin.
Cameron Davis (+2000) failed to qualify for the TOUR Championship. He finished 40th at the BMW Championship but had three consecutive top-10 finishes before that. In his last start, Davis finished 3rd at the Fortinet Championship. This will be his fifth appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishing coming in 2021 (T27). Despite not cracking the top 20 in each of those four prior times, he has made the cut each time.
Si Woo Kim (+2200) will make his first start since the TOUR Championship where he finished T20. He captured his third win on the PGA TOUR Earlier this year at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Outside of that, he only had four other top-10 finishes. This will be his seventh appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishes coming in 2020 and 2022 (T8).
J.J. Spaun (+3000) has finished inside the top 15 in three of his six appearances at TPC Summerlin. He enters this week off two top-25 finishes (T11 – Fortinet, T24 – FedEx St. Jude Championship).
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
| Shriners Children’s Open | Shriners Children’s Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | |
| TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | |
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |
| Tom Kim | 1 | ||||
| S.H. Kim | T4 | ||||
| Matthew NeSmith | T2 | T14 | T8 | T18 | |
| Harry Hall | T15 | T8 | |||
| Hayden Buckley | T20 | T8 | |||
| Adam Hadwin | T10 | T6 | T34 | T4 | |
| Chad Ramey | T28 | T14 | |||
| Matt Wallace | T28 | T14 |
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
| Shriners Children’s Open | Shriners Children’s Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | |
| TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | TPC Summerlin | |
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |
| Garrick Higgo | MC | MC | |||
| Cameron Champ | MC | MC | MC | T28 | |
| Jason Dufner | MC | MC | MC | ||
| Adam Svensson | T69 | MC | MC | ||
| Scott Harrington | MC | MC | |||
| Michael Kim | MC | MC | MC | MC | |
| Satoshi Kodaira | MC | MC | T41 | ||
| MJ Daffue | MC | MC | |||
| Ryan Armour | MC | MC | MC | ||
| Tyler Duncan | T72 | MC | MC | ||
| Zac Blair | MC | MC | MC | ||
| Martin Trainer | MC | MC | MC | MC |
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
Picks (Outrights):
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Shriners Children’s Open: 3.08 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
Bye Weeks: Packers and Steelers
Key Injuries:
RB Khalil Herbert left the game for the Bears with an Ankle injury.
RB James Conner suffered a knee injury. More to come.
RB De’Von Achane is dealing with a knee injury. More to come.
WR Tank Dell had a concussion.
WR Zay Jones came out of the Bills game.
WR Justin Jefferson left the game with a hammy.
QB Daniel Jones left with a neck injury.
QB Anthony Richardson out 3-4 weeks with an AC joint.
TE Travis Kelce with an ankle sprain is day to day.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson had a concussion.
Waiver Wire:
RB Roschon Johnson and RB D’Onta Foreman for the Khalil Herbert injury.
RB Jeff Wilson will be huge for Miami with the Achane injury.
TE Logan Thomas had 11 targets for the Commies.
WR DJ Chark found the end zone for Carolina.
WR Wandale Robinson is the main target for NY
WR KJ Osborn for the Jefferson injury.
QB Tyrod Taylor might get the nod for the Gmen.
RB Emari Demercado for the Cardinals if Conner can’t come back.
Any handcuffs players that were finally dropped by your league.
Non-starters trending up for week 6.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire might get some play in garbage time vs Denver.
WR Rashee Rice vs the Broncos looks like a play.
RB Zach Charbonnet could do well vs the Bengals next week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell vs the Jets could be huge.
QB Justin Fields should have continued success vs the Vikings.
TE Cole Kmet vs the Vikings should have a day.
WR Brandin Cooks vs the Chargers should have a great game.
WR Michael Gallup vs the Chargers I like as well.
WR Jordan Addison is a must start vs the Bears.
WR Tyler Boyd vs the Seahawks is a sneaky one that could hit.
TE Noah Gray vs the Broncos could be a streamer this week.
WR Christian Kirk vs the Colts could be big this week. He was big last week.
Busts:
QB DeShawn Watson vs the 49ers.
RB Jerome Ford vs the 49ers.
QB Brock Purdy vs the Browns is dangerous.
RB Rachaad White vs the Lions could have a bad day.
QB CJ Stroud vs the Saints could possible struggle.
WR Terry McLaurin vs the Falcons could be timed out.
Nasty Sleeper: WR KJ Osborn vs the Bears. I think that he gets free and scores some big points.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 7. Finally, Dave is back as we talk some fantasy football Week 5 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Bengals vs Cardinals +3 O/U 44.5
I hope that everyone has finally figured out that the Cardinals are not tanking. Last week vs the 49ers, the score was a bit misleading as the Cardinals were definitely in that game. This handicap is more about the Bengals. I think that is is CLEAR to me that Joe Burrow can’t move with that calf injury and the fact that their offensive line hasn’t panned out thus far is certainly a big issue. How many weeks of data should this game need? After four weeks the tale is certainly telling. The Bengals rank 27th in offensive EPA while the Cardinals rank 9th. On defense, the Cardinals rank 29th in EPA while the Bengals rank 24th. If you want to talk strength of schedule, I would argue that playing the Cowboys, Giants, Commanders and 49ers is at least as hard as the Bengals playing the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans. Lastly, the Cardinals have a huge matchup advantage on the ground rushing 5.3 yards per rush while the Bengals allow one of the league’s worst at 5.1. Take the Cardinals plus the free points.
Cardinals +3 – 2 stars
Teaser: Saints to +7.5 with the Texans to +8 – 3 stars. The Patriots are banged up on defense while the Falcons have no quarterback.
