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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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*On a side note, I do like the Vikings tonight with the points. The line is down to +6 or +6.5 in some places. Anything 6 or above is a play. DO NOT take anything under 6. *
Vikings +6.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u
Washington at Denver -3.5 O/U 39 (4:25pm ET)
The Commanders crept by arguably the worst team in football Week 1 in D.C., the Arizona Cardinals. While the offense had plenty of problems, specifically the offensive line, the defense lived up to the hype. Holding Arizona to just 13 first downs and limiting them to 3 field goals with one being from 50 plus. Safe to say they held their end of the bargain. Now you’re probably thinking, big deal they stopped Joshua Dobbs and company who cares. For starters, they did this without Chase Young (I know, as usual), but also are playing with a rookie at cornerback. 1st round pick Emmanuel Forbes was everything and more in his debut but will be much more tested this week facing Russell Wilson and their ensemble of receivers.
Clearly both teams struggled offensively in Week 1. Denver’s top 2 receivers were back-up/3rd down running back Samaje Perine and TE Adam Trautman. Wilson had trouble getting the ball to his top targets and now must face one of the better back ends of defenses in the league. Washington is going to have its fair share of problems getting the ball through the air to their electric playmakers as well. Howell was sacked 6 times in Week 1 and was pressured by what seemed like every pass play. With all that said, the team who has the most success on the ground wins this game on Sunday. Give me Brian Robinson all day long. This is a smaller version of Derrick Henry. I know it’s a crazy comparison, but the more he gets the ball, the later it gets in the game, the stronger he is. He will eat away at this Broncos defense as the game progresses. Which will slow down the pass rush for Denver and give Howell time to get the ball to his speedy receivers.
Like I said earlier in the summer, the Payton/Wilson experiment is going to take time like anything else. Landing this hungry Washington defense Week 2 after a NON emotional performance the first week is a terrible combination. Give me the Commanders Week 2 with the points at Empower Field at Mile High. Do note I have multiple bets on this game, giving us max ability to CRUSH this game.
I do believe we will see a pick 6 or fumble 6 in this game. So, if you wanted to take a shot at a side bet of their being a defensive touchdown at obviously PLUS money, go for it! Throw some lunch money on it.
Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…
Commanders +3.5 (Caesars -110) risk 1.38u to win 1.25u
First Half: Commanders ML +140 (Caesars) risk 0.4u to win 0.56u
Correlated Parlay (+264): Washington +3.5, Wash-Den under 39, risk 0.25u to win 0.66u
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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We have a HUGE show for you today! It’s over-reaction week and the NFL! Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from @WagerTalk comes on to talk some college football! First, Kiev talks about the 140 people that went 5-0 in the Circa and how that could factor into a parlay price. Next, Kiev talks about his power ratings that are public on our website as well as a nice future play for college football that looks like it has some value. Next, We get into NFL Week 2 with some thoughts and some more Free Plays! Then, Ralph comes on to talk about some college football! First, Ralph and Kiev talk about some future bets as well as some surprises this year in college football. Next, Ralph blesses us with some great trends for college football week three. After that, Ralph and Kiev talk some big game for the weekend with some agreement, disagreement and some plays. Finally, Ralph gives us some NFL trends that are red hot on over-reaction week! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.
On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with Brady Kannon about how he got his start in sports media and his approach to each tournament.
Topics:
You went to the University of San Diego where you studied communications among other things. From there you jumped right into radio, was that always the plan to get involved in sports media, or what specifically led you to that field?
You started your sports career on radio for KSFO Radio in San Francisco where you covered all Bay Area Sports before moving to Las Vegas to work for SportsFan Radio Network. Did your interest/ involvement in gambling start in San Francisco or Las Vegas?
You produced a show for Dave Cokin in Las Vegas, what role in your gambling career did he have? He also shared a story about how you would hang out with Pete Rose at the horse racing track.
You’ve run LVTeeTimes since 1996, Did your interest in golf betting start then or was it another specific time?
After a brief hiatus, the PGA tour returns. The FedExCup Fall gets underway this week at the Fortinet Championship.
The new schedule only allows the top 50 in the FedExCup Standings through the BMW Championship to be exempt into the 2024 Signature Events (8). As a result, we’ll likely start to see some more competitive fields this Fall which is certainly an improvement from last year.
The top 70 players in the FedExCup Standings have secured their 2024 PGA Tour status, while the remaining 55 spots are up for grabs across the next seven events.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Max Homa will look to become the first golfer since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic in 2009-11 to win the same TOUR event three years in a row. He seems to have a majority of his success in California claiming 4 of his 6 PGA Tour victories in the same state he went to college.
Justin Thomas will play his first PGA Tour event following the Wyndham Championship. He finished 71st in the FedEx Cup Standings missing the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time in his career. He’ll look to regain his form heading into the Ryder Cup after being selected as one of the captain’s picks.
Following this week’s event, the PGA Tour will not return until October for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. During that two-week break, the Ryder Cup takes place at Macro Simone Golf & Country Club in Rome, Italy.
Tournament Information:
Dates: September 14th, 2023 – September 17th, 2023
Location: Napa, California, United States
Course: Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
Course Type: Resort
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,123 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Poa annua / bentgrass .110”
Fairways: Bermuda / Poa / rye .450”
Rough: Bluegrass / ryegrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 53
Water Hazard(s): 2 (In-Play on 2 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,400 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000 /$1,512,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
Course Scoring Average:
2022: 71.52 (-0.48), Rank, 21 of 50
2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Rank 32 of 50
2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Rank 44 of 51
Historic Cut Line:
2022: -2
2021: -3
2020: -5
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Ben Harmon (1955)
Renovations: Robert Trent Jones Jr. (1966), Johnny Miller (2011)
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – RESULTS
Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
The Fortinet Championship, previously known as the Safeway Open and Frys.com Open, is the opening event of the reimagined FedExCup Fall. Fortinet took over the naming rights in 2021, signing a six-year deal.
Silverado Resort and Spa has hosted this event since 2014. The original 18-hole course at Silverado opened in 1955 but just 11 years later it was re-designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. In addition to the re-design of the North Course, he added a South Course. In 2010, Johnny Miller purchased the resort and made several improvements. He also added 250 yards to the North Course making it up to current PGA standards.
The course routing has changed with 10 holes in a different order, including the signature 11th hole playing as the tournament’s 17th. See the chart below for all of the routing changes made to the tournament layout.
2022 Layout
2023 Layout
Hole
Par
Yardage
Hole
Par
Yardage
Routing Change
1
4
436
1
4
436
–
2
3
197
2
3
197
–
3
4
424
3
4
424
–
4
4
407
4
4
407
–
5
5
538
5
5
538
–
6
4
417
6
4
417
–
7
3
212
7
3
212
–
8
4
360
8
4
391
OLD #12
9
5
557
9
4
458
OLD #13
10
4
422
10
4
412
OLD #14
11
3
182
11
3
189
OLD #15
12
4
391
12
5
571
OLD #16
13
4
458
13
4
375
OLD #17
14
4
412
14
4
360
OLD #8
15
3
189
15
5
557
OLD #9
16
5
571
16
4
422
OLD #10
17
4
375
17
3
182
OLD #11
18
5
575
18
5
575
–
Most Wins at Event:
2, Max Homa (2022,2021) & Brendan Steele (2016, 2017)
72-Hole Record (Silverado):
267, Stewart Cink (2020)
18-Hole Record (Silverado):
61, Chesson Hadley (2nd round, 2017)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The North Course at Silverado Resort & Spa is on the shorter side measuring 7,123 yards. It ranks 8th out of 42 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 42, with the average fairway width being 25.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,400 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 50 bunkers which ranks as the 5th fewest out of the 42 courses.
The four Par 3’s at Silverado range from 182 to 212 yards. Last year, all of these holes had a scoring average over par.
No. 11 (Old/ Members No. 15), 189 yards, Par 3: “This challenging par 3 will get your blood pumping. Hitting with the wrong club may cost you a penalty stroke and missing left of the green will leave you with a nearly impossible up and down. Par is a fantastic score on this very tough hole.”
No. 17 (Old/ Members No. 11), 182 yards, Par 3: “This beautiful short par 3 over water is the signature hole on the North Course. Although short, this hole has many difficult pin locations, Par on this hole is a good score.”
There are ten Par 4’s at Silverado with the majority (six) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. The two toughest Par 4’s last year were holes No. 4 and No. 13 (Current No. 9).
No. 13 (Old/ Members No. 17), 375 yards, Par 4: “This ideal drive on this short, dogleg left par 4 will be positioned on the far right side of the fairway (aim towards the large oak tree). A tee shot too far left off the tee and you will get blocked out by the tall Redwood Trees. Make sure you take extra club on your approach as the green is uphill and protected by a small pot bunker. Everything sloped to the middle of the green. A good second shot will leave you with a good look at birdie.”
No. 14 (Old/ Members No. 8), 360 yards, Par 4: “Position off this tee is crucial for your approach shot. With a water hazard right and out-of-bounds left, medium to long hitters will generally use a fairway wood from the tee for more accuracy. If you find the fairway, you will likely have a short iron to the green. This green slopes from back to front, one of the toughest greens on the course, a two-putt here and you’re gaining on the field!”
The four Par 5’s on the course are No. 5, No. 12, No. 15, and No. 18. All of these holes played under par last year. No. 5 had the lowest scoring average on the course last year (-0.427).
No. 12 (Old/ Members No. 16), 571 yards, Par 5: “Keep your drive right on this straightaway par 5 as a water hazard runs down the entire hole on the left side. A comfortable layup to the left center of the fairway should present you with a good angle and a short iron into this green. This green slopes gently from right to left.”
No. 18, 575 yards, Par 5: “This finishing hole is the longest par 5 on the North Course. Avoid the fairway bunkers on the right off the tee and you should be able to leave yourself in the perfect position to hit this green in regulation. Short left on your approach will make for a difficult par. Play towards the middle back of this green to ensure a finishing par.”
Featured Holes: 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Proximity: 75 -100 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x6)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x3)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Fortinet Championship.Only two of the world’s top thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Max Homa (+750) has won the Fortinent Championship in back-to-back years. He’s coming into this week in great form as well finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last four events.
Justin Thomas (+1200) missed out on the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time in his career. He finished T12 in his last start on the PGA Tour at the Wyndham Championship. Thomas last played in this event in 2020 where he finished T4.
Sahith Theegala (+2000) will make his fourth appearance at the Fortinet Championship this week. His best finish was last year where he placed T6. Theegala did miss out on the TOUR Championship but did play well in his last two events finishing T15 at the BMW Championship and T13 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Cam Davis (+2200) struggled last year but comes into this event having finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour. This will be his fifth appearance at the Fortinet Championship. In his four prior finishes at Silverado, he’s only finished inside the top 20 once.
Stephan Jaeger (+2500) finished T20 in his last PGA Tour start, the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s been in solid form with his last missed cut coming all the way back in April at the RBC Heritage. This will be his fifth appearance at this event with his best finish coming back in in his debut (T30, 2017).
Previous Winners in the Field (Silverado):
Max Homa (’22, ’21), Stewart Cink (’20), Cameron Champ (’19), Kevin Tway (’18), Sangmoon Bae (’14)
Notable Withdraws:
Yuxin Lin (Playing the Simmons Bank Open, KFT)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Fortinet Championship
Fortinet Championship
Safeway Open
Safeway Open
Safeway Open
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Max Homa
1
1
T62
T60
Sahith Theegala
T6
T47
T14
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Fortinet Championship
Fortinet Championship
Safeway Open
Safeway Open
Safeway Open
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Sean O’Hair
T58
MC
MC
Martin Laird
MC
MC
MC
T46
George McNeil
MC
MC
Chris Stroud
T43
MC
MC
MC
MC
Patton Kizzire
MC
T28
MC
MC
Scott Brown
MC
MC
MC
MC
Kyle Stanley
MC
MC
T46
MC
Chad Ramey
MC
MC
Kevin Chappell
MC
MC
T56
T40
Hank Lebioda
MC
MC
T44
MC
Ryan Armour
MC
T51
MC
Tyler Duncan
MC
MC
MC
T56
T69
Martin Trainer
MC
MC
MC
T60
Matthew NeSmith
MC
T51
MC
MC
Ben Martin
T67
MC
MC
Robert Streb
MC
MC
MC
MC
Wesley Bryan
MC
MC
Kevin Stadler
MC
MC
Kelly Kraft
MC
MC
MC
MC
Kramer Hickok
T25
MC
MC
MC
MJ Daffue
MC
T72
Max Mcgreevy
MC
MC
Ted Potter Jr.
MC
MC
MC
Kyounghoon Lee
MC
MC
MC
Henrik Norlander
MC
MC
MC
Callum Tarren
MC
MC
Seung-yul Noh
MC
MC
Kevin Yu
MC
MC
Trevor Werbylo
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Max Homa (-16)
Price: 16-1
2021: Max Homa (-19)
Price: 60-1
2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
Price: 200-1
2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
Price: 150-1
2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
Price: 66-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Max Homa
T5 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T23 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T42 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T24 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
2021: Max Homa
T63 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T47 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T51 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
T40 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T25 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2020: Stewart Cink
MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T46 – 3M Open (PGA)
T62 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T17 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2019: Cameron Champ
T28 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T8 – Dunlop Phoenix (JPN)
T65 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T21 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
2018: Kevin Tway
T43 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
T56 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T11 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T17 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T50 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
Picks (Outrights):
Sahith Theegala (+1600) – DraftKings
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Brendon Todd (+4000) – Caesars
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Akshay Bhatia (+4500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Davis Thompson (+5000) – Caesars
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Taylor Montgomery (+6000) – Caesars
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.18 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cam Davis (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Beau Hossler (+145) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Chez Reavie (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Erik van Rooyen (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Fortinet Championship: 5.18 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
