Let’s build off our incredible 5-2 day yesterday and leave Week 1 in the dust with a W!
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The Tigers and Seminoles will meet Sunday night in Orlando at Camping World Stadium for a top 10 clash. While this is considered a ‘neutral’ site game, I would imagine we will see Noles fans there in bunches. Two senior QB’s will square off in FSU’s Jordan Travis and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. While Travis might be better through the air, Daniels is always a threat with legs. To me on paper they’re equal in the end, so how do we separate these two teams? Well, each team had rough stretches defensively in 2022, but in my opinion facing offenses like Ole Miss, Georgia, Bama and Tennessee is far more difficult than anything the ACC has to offer. Not to mention it appears LSU got better defensively through the transfer portal this offseason, ranking 2nd overall in the country only 2nd to “Prime’s” Buffaloes. The Tigers were able to get 8 four-star transfers and 1 five-star, with five of those eight making the starting line-up for week 1. All on the defensive side of the ball! Let’s keep in mind the revenge factor as well, just one year ago this time FSU beat LSU 24-23 on a blocked extra point with zeroes on the clock.
Brian Kelly turned this program around immediately, making them a championship contender in just his 2nd season in the bayou. Yes, they have a great offense, but I think in the end it will be their defense that slows down Travis and company making them victorious to kick off the season. Let’s back the Tigers tonight on the money-line, with a unit upgrade!
Cleveland Browns Moneyline +118 @Caesars Sportsbook Risk 3 Units To Win 3.54 Units
The Cleveland Browns will host the Cincinnati Bengals week 1 Sunday September 10th and the Browns on paper have a talented roster coming into the season. I expect the Browns to have a good day on the ground and through the air on this Bengals defense, as they lost both Jessie Bates and Von Bell to there defensive backfield in free agency. I grade out the Bengals linebackers as an average unit so they will have there hands full trying to stop Nick Chubb who I think is the best running back in the NFL. The Browns should win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball as they have above average units especially with there key additions on defense in free agency as they got Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Shelby Harris. The Browns defensive pressure rate in 2022 was 18.2% per dropback which ranked 27th in the NFL, but I think Myles Garrett and company will turn that around this year and get after Joe Burrow in this game and force him to make bad decisions. The wrong team is favored in my opinion as I have the Browns as a 2 point favorite according to my power ratings. Take the Browns on the moneyline against the Bengals week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3.5 -110 @BetRivers Sportsbook Risk 3.3 Units To Win 3 Units
The New England Patriots have a home game week 1 against the defending NFC champions the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots bring in Bill O’ Brien to be there new offensive coordinator which has to be an upgrade over last year play caller Matt Patricia who was clueless scheming plays for the Patriots. The Patriots bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki hoping to boost this offense which ranked 24th in EPA. My main handicap for this game will be on the defensive side of the ball where the Patriots have a ceiling to be a top 5 defense this year as they did rank 3rd last year in EPA defense. The Eagles do have a really talented roster coming back this season, but do lose both there OC and DC to head coaching jobs which will be a struggle to the start of the season. I make the Eagles a 1 point favorite against the Patriots in my power ratings and the Patriots are catching +3.5, which I think is to high against an elite defense in the Patriots at home. Take the +3.5 with the Patriots in a tight low scoring defensive game.
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71 % at 5-1 For 2023 Preseason football! Up 5U!
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Middle Tennessee State vs Alabama -40 O/U 51.5
When is a point spread too many points? Well for Alabama, many times it is never too many, but it all depends on the situation. Nick Saben is a man who likes to stick it to the teams in his own conference that he recruits against, but as far as the little guy, he tends to have some compassion and does his best not to embarrass them. Rick Stockstill is the coach for MTSU and he has been there for quite some time now. I do not think that Saben wants to crush this team. Even more eminent is the quarterback situation for Alabama. There are three guys in the mix in Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner that will all need some reps today. This situation doesn’t really bode well for consistency. Last year, the Blue Raiders started the season out poorly, yet they improved at the end winning four games in a row. They return a lot of production on defense at 86% which might be able to force a few punts here and there. Being that Stockstill is an offensive guy, so I could see a garbage touchdown at the end if needed. Take the points.
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We are done with Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC East
2022 Standings
Buffalo 13-3/ Miami 9-8/ New England 8-9/ New York Jets 7-10
Buffalo -The Bills couldn’t climb the AFC mountain again in 2022, and it looks to be a challenge once in 2023. They lost their three combined games by only eight points in the regular season, and then got manhandled in the snow by Cincinnati in the playoffs. The hype train was all about the Bills last year, and quite a few people have jumped off the bandwagon, but not me. There’s some tension in the locker room with Stefon Diggs, which is my main concern with the offense. I think they improved the interior of the offensive line, and gave Josh Allen more protection. His legs didn’t miss a beat last season so I expect the QB scramble/run to be a big part of the game-plan. If they can get some more interior rushing going I think it will help out Allen even more. I also love the Dalton Kincaid draft pick late in the first as that provides a very versatile mismatch weapon at the slot or TE spot. On defense the biggest loss was Tremaine Edmunds at LB. They added pass rusher Leonard Floyd to hold down the pressure until Von Miller is all the way back. The secondary shouldn’t miss a beat. This team was the best in the regular season a year ago, and I think they will be once again in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced to the Over at -155, Under +125
New York Jets – Is Aaron Rodgers an elite QB still in the NFL? Is he worth 3 or 4 more wins over yea with this roster? The answer is yes. This team managed to win seven games even with the worst starting QB in football in Zach Wilson. The team cleaned up in the draft in 2022 getting Breece Hall who likely would have been Rookie Of The Year if he hadn’t got hurt and #1 Receiver Garrett Wilson who did win it. They also got the Defensive Rookie Of The Year in Sauce Gardner. The offense should have a strong running game supported by a good interior line. Losing Corey Davis this last week to retirement took away a target for Rodgers, but he has a solid comfort level with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman has still shown good flashes of talent. My only concern is protecting Rodgers in passing situations as the pass blocking has looked less than stellar this pre-season much like it did last year. On defense this group flies to the ball at every level as they finished 4th in points and yards allowed. I could see the group taking a small step back as they slightly overachieved last year. If Rodgers is still as good as I think he is this group should challenge in the division and could be Super Bowl contenders. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juice is Even at -115
Miami – The Dolphins will be an incredible offense this year if Tua is healthy. That’s a big if. Watching some of his games last year where the concussion occurred was scary stuff. The question isn’t if, it is when another one will occur. If he stays healthy 2023 the Dolphins also have a shot in this division as I believe they can score with anyone. I’m not crazy about backup Mike White if something does happen to Tua again, so only take Miami overs if you are okay with high risk Tolerance. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the top receiver duo in the league. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert aren’t super stars, but Wilson runs downhill as well as anyone, and Mostert can make things happen in space. On defense they made some big moves getting CB Jalen Ramsey and LB Hunter Long. The biggest move on defense I think however is signing Vic Fangio as DC as he has a long and solid history of turning out great NFL defenses. If it all comes together this is the third team in the AFC East that could compete for a division title and Super Bowl Championship. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over at -120, Under -110
New England – Mac Jones isn’t the answer. Bill Belichick is 30 wins behind Don Shula for tops all time. After this year it might be time for both of them to get a change of scenery. The Patriots are just outclassed in this division. The Pats have the hardest schedule in the league from a win totals perspective and other than getting a new OC in Bill O’Brien they did nothing to upgrade one of the worst offenses in the league in 2022. I don’t care how good Bill is at game planning on defense and making young QBs look silly they can’t keep up scoring with the better QBs in the league. In fact they had only one win in 2022 over a QB ranked in the top 16 in output and that was the Lions debacle in Foxboro a 29-0 win for the Pats against Jared Goff. The defense as mentioned will again be solid, likely a Top 5 unit, but will Bill O’Brien find a way to get Mac back on track after a huge sophomore slump? Don’t bet on it. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
2023 Predictions
Buffalo 12-5
New York Jets 11-6
Miami 10-7
New England 6-11
AFC North Action:
Buffalo – Lean Over. I still think this is a great team, but this division is brutal and the schedule is tough.
New York Jets – Over 9.5 -115 1 Unit. If you’re a gambling man wait until the Week 7 Bye week to bet it as they start off with a brutal six game stretch and you should get a better price. I think with a healthy Rodgers this should go over with Atlanta, Houston and Cleveland as their 4th place schedule. I don’t hate the looks at the division at +250 or the AFC at +1000 either.
Miami – No Action. It’s all about Tua. I don’t trust he stays healthy, but if he does I’d think they go over.
New England – Lean Under. A little too much juice for me to tolerate here especially since they could very easily be the best last place team in the NFL. It’s a really tough schedule, but Bill seems to find a way to compete.
The Golden Gopher era has moved on from 5-year starters QB Tanner Morgan and RB Mohamed Ibrahim. Accepting the baton will be sophomore QB Athan Kaliakmanis and senior transfer Sean Tyler. Tyler spent his first four collegiate seasons at Western Michigan, accruing over 2,800-yards rushing and scoring 23 touchdowns, with each of his last two seasons going over 1,000 yards. Tyler has that burst of speed and instincts to change the game with just one cut. The progression of Kaliakmanis will also be vital for their success. Ironically, Athan burst onto the scene in 2022 at Nebraska, leading the Gophers from a 10-point deficit to victory. He will be surrounded by an offense loaded with seniors, specifically an O-line that helped Ibrahim with his success in college.
Now, I’m sure you’re thinking this is Matt Rhule’s Nebraska debut, have you seen what he has been able to do in college? This is not the pros. While yes you are correct, Rhule has dazzled in college, but I don’t think his impact will have an immediate success in week 1. I think it’s going to be a slow grind for Cornhusker fans, but success will eventually come. It appears to me he is grooming this to be “his” team going forward, with most of their 3-star transfers from last season not making the depth charts let alone a starting job. Not to mention Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims has the starting job for Nebraska. Will he be successful in Rhule’s system? I mean he could be, but I surely don’t see it. While his legs are always a threat, his accuracy and decision making have been nothing but subpar in his career. He now must face a Gopher defense that is consistently good on the defensive side of the ball in P.J. Fleck’s tenure at Minnesota, not the greatest combination. Including facing multiple senior transfers on the back end of the defense in 3-star recruits CB Tre’Von Jones and NB Jack Henderson.
All in all, don’t fall for the trap of getting a Matt Rhule coached squad getting 7.5 points. Lay the points and take the Gophers on opening night in Minnesota!
Minnesota -7.5 (BetMGM -105) risk 1.05u to win 1u
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Whenever there are coaching changes, as sports bettors, we have to recognize how it will affect every facet of that team going forward. There are not just personnel and scheme changes, but there are also pace changes that we all must be aware of in order to correctly handicap the total as well as the side. Some of the research involved is that we can find out the history of these coaches and how they run their respective phase of their previous teams. Were they coordinators that ran the same schemes? Were they assistants who might follow the same footsteps as their leaders? It is great to try and find an edge this way and I decided to put some work into is so that I could share my thoughts on attempting to predict the future tempos of the teams with new coaches for the 2023 season.
Please see bottom of article for Kyle Hunter’s contest entry
1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Previous Job: Head Coach, Cincinnati
Speed Change – Slow to fast: Wisconsin was one of the slowest teams in football ranking 121st in seconds per play. They should be much faster now mainly due to Phil Longo coming in from North Carolina as the offensive coordinator who was 26th in Tempo. He ran more of an air raid style offense.
Projection: 35th in tempo
2. Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Previous Job: Head Coach, Purdue
Speed Change – Medium to medium/fast: Jeff Brohm is an offensive mind who rarely runs the ball. Louisville was 62nd in tempo in 2022 and I expect them to bump that up.
Projection: 35th in tempo
3. Deion Sanders, Colorado
Previous Job: Head Coach, Jackson State
Speed Change – Medium to fast: Coach prime may have played defense, but he also knows how to get his son who is quarterback to push the ball quickly down field like he did at Jackson State. Let’s not forget the Sean Lewis affect coming in at offensive coordinator. I see a fast team.
Projection: 19th in Tempo
4. Jamey Chadwell, Liberty
Previous Job: Head Coach, Coastal Carolina
Speed Change – Medium to slow: Even though Coastal put of points over the Chadwell years, this team only ranked 110th in tempo last. It was the poor defense and good offense for Chadwell that helped put up the points.
5. Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Previous Job: Head Coach, Carolina Panthers
Speed Change – Medium/fast to Fast: Matt Rhule played a fast game at Baylor and I expect him to spice it up now that he’s back in college football.
Projection: 28th in Tempo
6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Previous Job: Head Coach, Liberty
Speed Change – Slow to Medium/fast: Hugh Freeze is an offensive mind who will pace it up in his game. I expect him to keep a decent pace like he did at liberty around in 38th tempo.
Projection: 37th in Tempo
7. Tom Herman, Florida Atlantic
Previous Job: TV Analyst/Head Coach at Texas (2020)
Speed Change – Fast to Fast: FAU played fast but so does Tom Herman even going back to his Ohio State roots. FAU ranked 20th in pace last year and I expect a slight slow down.
Projection: 26th in Tempo
8. Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Oregon
Speed Change – Slow to Fast: ASU ranked 101st in Tempo last year, but Dilly Dilly knew how to spice it up for some drives at Oregon ranking 52nd in pace of play. That number a little deceiving with some of the blow outs that they were in involved in.
Projection: 43rd in Tempo
9. Ryan Walters, Purdue
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Illinois
Speed Change: Medium/fast to Medium: Illinois Defense was amazing last year and I have to expect that Purdue slows down some going from the Jeff Brohm offense to new OC Graham Harrell who did a stint last year at West Virginia before being at USC. I just think coach Walters puts the handcuffs on him some.
Projection: 60th in Tempo
10. G.J. Kinne, Texas State
Previous Job: Head Coach, Incarnate Ward
Projection: 20th in Tempo
11. Troy Taylor, Stanford
Previous Job: Head Coach, Sacramento State
Speed Change – Medium to Fast: Stanford was number 56 in pace last year. Troy Taylor’s three years at Sacramento State was all about the points averaging more than 40 per game from 2022.
Projection: 25th in Tempo
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Washington State
Speed Change – Very fast to medium/fast: Eric Morris was the OC at Washington State who ranked 36th in pace. I expect this North Texas team who used to be a top paced team a 16th from 2022 to regress back to around 31st.
Projection: 31st in Tempo
13. Kevin Wilson, Tulsa
Previous Job: Co-Offensive Coordinator, Ohio State
Speed Change – Medium/fast to medium/slow Kevin Wilson did recent stints at Ohio State and before that Indiana as a head coach. I would assume that he keeps a slower pace like Ryan Day did in Columbus.
Projection: 89th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Arkansas
Speed Change – Medium/slow to medium: This was a strange hire being that his coach hasn’t found a lot off success in his previous teams. He’s a defensive guy but his new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion comes in from Texas which had a faster pace under Steve Sarkisian. I think he keeps this team in the middle.
Projection: 54th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Mississippi State
Speed Change – Medium to medium: After the passing of Mike Leach, DC Zach Arnette got promoted to head coach. It is true that Leach did slow his offense down some before his tragic passing. Arnette has a defensive mind and their new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay was at Appalachian State and Central Michigan. App State was only 64th in pace last year.
Projection: 70th in Tempo
16. Alex Golesh, USF
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Tennessee
Speed Change – Slow to very fast: Golesh is a Josh Heuple disciple who plays at some of the highest paces in the land. I expect USF to run and gun this year even though it might mean losing by lots of points.
Projection: 5th in Tempo
17. Brian Newberry, Navy
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Navy
Speed Change – Very slow to very slow: Fire the coach and promote the DC. You do not see that often. I do not understand this hire when it’s basically replacing with the same kind of guy with a slightly different option scheme.
Projection: 122nd in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach, Louisville
Speed Change – Medium to Medium: Coming from Louisville, Scott Satterfield’s tempo was almost equal to the Bearcats in the mid 60s. We will see more quarterback runs.
Speed Change – Medium to medium: Brent Key averaged around 44th in pace last year and I expect it to slow down some with new offensive coordinator who was an analyst at Georgia in Buster Faulkner.
20. Biff Poggi, Charlotte
Previous Job: Off-Field Assistant, Michigan
Speed Change – Medium to slow: Charlotte was 71st in Pace while Biff Poggi comes from Michigan that ranked 121st in pace. I expect a slower game.
Projection – 114th in Tempo
21. Lance Taylor, Western Michigan
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Louisville
Speed Change – Slow to medium: Western Michigan averaged about 91st in Tempo last year while Lance Taylor under Scott Satterfield was in the middle.
Projection: 59th in Tempo
22. Kenni Burns, Kent State
Previous Job: Running Backs Coach, Minnesota
Speed Change – Very fast to very slow: Going from Sean Lewis to a Gophers guy like Kenny Burns is a massive shift in philosophy. Kent State was 8th in pace last year and I expect them pretty low.
Projection: 123rd in Tempo
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, NC State
Speed Change – Very slow to slow: Coastal as mentioned earlier was 110th in pace last year. Tim Beck from North Carolina State wasn’t exactly a light it up team unless they had to keep up in the ACC. They were 77th in pace last year.
Projection: 106th in Tempo
24. Trent Dilfer, UAB
Previous Job: Head Coach, Lipscomb Academy
Speed Change – Very slow to slow: One of the strangest hires in football brings in Trent Dilfer who has 0 college coaching experience. I have to assume slow but it isn’t like UAB played fast at 12oth in pace last year.
Projection: 85th in Tempo
Kyle Hunter’s College Football Pickem Contest!
Details-10 ATS picks per week. One “moneyball” worth 2 points and others are worth 1 point. Starting Week 1 (8/31) concludes end of regular season. Prizes- $500 to 1st place and $150 to 2nd place if there are more than 300 entries. $300 to 1st place and $100 to 2nd place if there are 300 entries or fewer. There will also be weekly prizes available. Only 2 things needed to be eligible for prizes First, follow me on Twitter (X). Second, you must be signed up for my free picks newsletter. http://shorturl.at/wBD02 Register for free here https://playaction.pub/kylepickem Please share this with friends and let’s have some fun with this contest! If you have any questions reach out to me.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill is back to break down some college football week 1 and some NFL! First, Kiev talks about his published power ratings at The OddsBreakers.com. Next, he answers a listener question while going into some pace changes with the new coaching hires. Next, Will Hill comes on and the guys right away get into some New York sports. Then, Will and Kiev talk about four big games for college football week 1 with some Free Plays! After that, the guys get right into some NFL week one with some leans and some plays. Finally, Kiev talks about some college football sharp money for the week. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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