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55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
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38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
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Indianapolis vs Buffalo +3.5 O/U 38
This one isn’t hard to figure out. The reason that we see the Colts as big favorites is pretty much the announcement of Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback. Well this market move blows my mind because we do not even know if he is good yet. We don’t even know if he’s worthy of being even a backup quarterback in this league. The Bills most likely will not be playing Josh Allen at all this game, but backups Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley are very experienced NFL quarterbacks, and they are fighting to stay in the NFL and collect that big backup money. Looking at the coaching numbers, we do not know anything about Shane Steichen yet, but if he is anything like his most recent mentor in Nick Sirianni, he won’t seem to care much about winning in the Pre-season. Coach Sean McDermott on the other hand is a huge 12-7 in preseason football and 3-2 in preseason week 1. I think that he could certainly win this game outright. Let’s not forget that this is a home game for Buffalo. Take the Bills.
Preseason has officially arrived, while it may only be 3 weeks instead of 4, nonetheless plenty of opportunities to beef up that bankroll for football season that is just upon us. With that said, we passed on a winner last evening. Well, technically two, Texans for the game at -3 and 2H at -1, both winners. No passing tonight my friends! Let’s take the new look Denver Broncos in the first half, laying -5.
Betting on new coaches in preseason is usually a recipe for success, so will Jonathon Gannon want to start his tenure with a W? Most certainly one would assume, but that’s why I want to back Denver in the first half. Sean Payton on the other hand will presumably want to come out guns a blazing, at least as much as a preseason game fair to desire. Wanting to put 2022 in the rearview mirror all starts tonight. A chance for Russell Wilson to prove he’s not washed up, a chance for Sean Payton to show the world he’s not washed up and ‘scouted’ the right team. More importantly a complete makeover offensive line a shot to blend and build a connection going forward. Most of Denver’s issues last season all started up front, hence all the changes that were made. This has been a franchise in the past that has prided themselves on being great up front. Well, what a perfect opponent to be matched up against in preseason game #1, the Arizona Cardinals. Who I believe will be your worst team in 2023, for a multitude of reasons. Facing Colt McCoy and possibly Clayton Tune will be no problem for this defense. Yes, Tune is currently 2nd on the depth charts due to Kyler’s injury. Which means we could see him in the game towards the end of the first half.
To me preseason is all about will and desire, which let’s be honest that’s what we look for in the regular season as well, who wants it more generally who wins/covers in a vast number of games. Why would a head coach who is currently 23rd all time in wins and a 34-year-old QB “want” to win tonight? Well, leaving State Farm Stadium with a W may not be high on their list, but having a strong showing from their #1 unit most surely is.
1H: Broncos -5 (Caesars -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u
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We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC West
2022 Records
San Francisco 13-4/ Seattle 9-8/ Los Angeles Rams 5-12/ Arizona 4-13
San Francisco – Brock Purdy? Trey Lance? Sam Darnold? If it’s anything like past seasons it will be whoever is healthy, and I would think Lance gets first crack it with Purdy still working his way back from injury. Whichever QB ends up going will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. With Christian McCaffrey still in his prime in the backfield and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to catch passes this offense should be dynamic. On defense, there are stars at every level led by Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave up front. The biggest loss for this team however could be Demeco Ryans leaving his DC spot to takeover as head coach in Houston. The good news for the 49ers is they get to play against what I believe will be one of the weakest overall divisions in football and should cruise to another division title. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -150, Under +120
Seattle – This team really came out of nowhere last year with the revival of Geno Smith. Maybe Revival is wrong word, Arrival may be more appropriate. The rest of the 2022 resurgence was led by Seattle’s rookie class which was one of the best in recent NFL history. Tackles in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas opened holes for Kenneth Walker III, Tariq Woolen was a great corner, and Coby Byrant also played bigtime roles. And if anyone thinks Pete Carroll forgot how to coach for a few years, I would certainly beg to differ. This year they grabbed the best corner in the draft in Devon Witherspoon, and plenty of depth. They also added a big time WR threat to pair up with DK Metcalf in Jaxson Smith-Njigba. They also overhauled the front seven on defense through free agency and should see some nice improvements there. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the over at -165, Under +135
Los Angeles Rams – This team is two years removed from a Super Bowl win, and they certainly cashed in all their chips to get it. This team is a mess from a GM perspective. They have 72.2 Million in dead cap space. They had very few draft picks that look like they’ll make an impact due to the Stafford trade, and they actually may have the worst overall defense in the NFL. Jalen Ramsey is gone and Aaron Donald is still elite, but he is entering the twilight of his career. Kupp and Stafford are really the only top notch players on offense, and if something happens to either one it will be a disaster in Socal. If someone got hurt I’d bet it’s Stafford as this offensive line is not built to protect a 35 year old pocket passer who already has taken 44 sacks in his career. If he and the rest of the offense stays healthy however this team will have a fighting chance in every game. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Even at -110 Both sides
Arizona – There’s a new GM and head coach in the desert and they will have their hands full. Losing J.J. Watt and releasing Deandre Hopkins puts their star power at minimal levels. This defense was already terrible last year and the rebuild is ready to get started. They invested early in offensive and defensive line help in the draft and added lots of depth through free agency although no real impact pieces so both units will still struggle. I’d expect Kyler Murray to be on the PUP list to start the season, and if he struggles upon his return I could see the Cardinals looking to move on based on his guaranteed salary and cap hits if he’s on the roster in 2024. With them trading down in the draft this year they could have the ammo to get a top QB in next years draft. I think they play this year as a lost year and build up ammo for a full rebuild in 2024. Vegas Win Prediction: 4.5 Juiced Even at -110 Both Sides
2023 Predictions
San Francisco 12-5
Seattle 9-8
Los Angeles Rams 8-9
Arizona Cardinals 4-13
NFC West Action:
San Francisco – Lean Over. This would normally be a play for me, but I don’t trust the QB situation and if it’s Lance or Darnold my numbers wouldn’t like it.
Seattle – Lean Over – This number has too much juice now, it opened much closer to even. If anyone if going to make some noise here it’s Seattle, but I could still see them landing with 8 wins.
Los Angeles Rams – Over 6.5 Wins 1 Unit. My number says to play this here, as much as my eye test says don’t. This team was 3-6 with Stafford starting last year and the schedule is easier this year. If he finds a way to stay healthy they’ll get to 7.
Arizone – Lean Under. They’re toast, and with a new GM and Coach they wanna get their own guys in here for 2024.
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73% at 11-4 in 2022 Preseason football! Up 12U!
111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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Minnesota vs Seattle -3.5 O/U 35
If anybody knows how to bet preseason football, they know that Pete Carroll is a play on kind of coach. Pete is 26-20 in the preseason which shows that he is actually trying to win most of these games. The Vikings Kevin O’Connell on the other hand is 0-3. The sample size is too small to make a judgement on him, but from the looks of where it’s going, I do not really think that he will be too motivated to win this game on the road. The Vikings did well last year while having a poor preseason. I don’t see much change. For Seattle, we should see Drew Lock and Holton Ahlers battle it out while the Vikings will be watching Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall for most of the game. If you would like to dig a little deeper, Pete Carrol has done well in his first week of preseason football at 9-5. That is a 64% winning percentage. If there are any weeks to fade Pete Carrol, it would be in the middle. I do not like laying points, but I am happy to grab the -170 on the money line.
We have a great show for you today! Tony George from @DocsSports comes on to break down some 2023 Big 12! First, Kiev talks about some upcoming events at Circa Las Vegas for contest week! Next, Tony comes on and the guys get right into football. We talk some Nebraska and CFB playoffs as well as some Pac-12. Then, Tony and Kiev get into some Big 12 for 2023! Is Texas venerable this year? Who are the teams that could unseat them? After that, we talk about each team from a high level and give out some thoughts and FREE PLAYS. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN with a free play! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Congrats to all Lucas Glover backers last week at the Wyndham Championship! He had been trending towards a win for the past few weeks so it was great for him to finally break through and capture his first win on the PGA Tour since the 2021 John Deere Classic.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
This week, the three-event 2023 FedExCup Playoffs start at TPC Southwind with the second edition of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This event replaced The Northern Trust but, TPC Southwind is no stranger to hosting PGA Tour events. A regular season event has been held here every year since 1989.
Last year the top 125 players were eligible for this event but with the new playoff format, only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup Standings are in the field this year.
Rory McIlroy, current No. 3 in the FedEx Cup standings, will begin his quest to defend his FedEx Cup title in hopes of becoming the first player to win it in consecutive years. With his victory last season, he became the PGA TOUR’s first three-time FedExCup winner.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the FedEx Cup Standings will look to win their first-ever FedEx Cup. Rahm currently has the most wins on Tour this season and holds a 174-point lead on Scheffler going into this week’s event. Scheffler came close to winning last season at East Lake but was out-dueled by Rory down the stretch.
Justin Thomas (No. 71) and Adam Scott (No. 72) were the first two players out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This is the first year for both of these players that they have missed out on the playoffs. Matt Kuchar is now the lone man to make the FedExCup Playoffs each year since the series’ 2007 inception.
Defending champion, Will Zalatoris will not be in the field this week. He captured his lone PGA Tour victory at TPC Southwind last year but had to withdraw the following week due to a back injury. Unfortunately, that injury lingered into this season which has forced him to miss the majority of the past year.
Tournament Information:
Dates: August 10th, 2023 – August 13th, 2023
Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
Course: TPC Southwind
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,243 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Champion bermudagrass .090”
Fairways: Zeon zoysiagrass .425”
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazard(s): 11 (In-Play on 11 Holes)
Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12.5+ ft.
Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 / $3,600,000
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
Field/ Cut: 70 Pros | No Cut
Playoff Holes: 18, 18, 11, 12, 18
Course Scoring Average:
2022: 69.16 (-0.84), Rank 30 of 50
2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51
2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Ron Prichard with consultants Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller (1988)
Renovations: PGA Tour re-design (2004), Bunker redesign (2020)
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.
Course/ Tournament History:
TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. Up until 2021, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.
TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.
In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaced the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2022. This will be the second time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.
72-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
264, Brooks Koepka (2019), Abraham Ancer (2021), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Sam Burns (2021)
18-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
61, Tom Lewis (third round, 2020), Bob Estes (first round, 2001), Jay Delsing (fourth round, 1993)
72-Hole Record (Event):
254, Dustin Johnson (2020 – TPC Boston)
18-Hole Record (Event):
60, Dustin Johnson (Second round, 2020 – TPC Boston)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Southwind is on the longer side measuring 7,243 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 46, with the average fairway width being 25.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,300 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 75 bunkers which rank as the 22nd fewest out of the 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 162 yards and 205 yards. The three Par 3’s on the had scoring averages under par with the exclusion being No. 14.
No. 11 is a smaller version of the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass but with its own uniqueness. Despite its lack of distance, it provides players with a challenge as they’re hitting on to an island green. The green is fairly open with just one pot bunker guarding the front edge.
No. 14 is the signature Par 3, which requires players to carry their tee shot over water onto a severely undulated green.
The twelve par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Holes No. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, and 18 all have a scoring average over par last year.
No. 9 is a long dogleg to the right with a downhill second shot over a lake in front of the green. Players will aim at the right side of the fairway in hopes of making their approach shot that much easier. It’s one of the holes that reward the bombers off the tee.
No. 18 is a fantastic finishing hole that again, rewards distance off the tee. It’s a dogleg left where water comes into play every shot. The body of water runs parallel to the fairway throughout the entire hole, making a solid tee shot critical.
The two Par 5’s, No. 3 and No. 16 are both gettable in two. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.
No. 3 features a downhill tee shot that will give players an extra roll. Off the tee, players will try to position it along the left side of the fairway providing themselves a better angle into the green. Their approach shot is difficult as a lake guards the right side with a pair of bunkers on the left.
No. 16 is a dogleg left and the shorter of the two Par 5’s. As long as players are in the fairway off the tee, they’ll have a fairly easy shot into the green. A large bunker complex does surround the green and will come into play more if the pin is in the back left.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9, 11, 14, 18
You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 70 players competing in this year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Jon Rahm (+650) will make his first start since finishing T2 at The Open Championship. He has four wins on the PGA Tour this year which is the most of any player. Last year at this event, he finished T5 gaining strokes in every category. Outside of that, he’s only played at TPC Southwind two other times finishing T52 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and 7th (2019 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).
Scottie Scheffler (+800) is coming off his second-worst finish of the season… T23 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had seven consecutive top-5 finishes. He’s also won twice this year at THE PLAYERS Championship (comp course) and the WM Phoenix Open. Last year, he missed the cut at the event, and in his two other trips to TPC Sawgrass, he finished 14th (2021 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and T15 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).
Rory McIlroy (+800) has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. During that span, he also picked up his second win of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open. In his most recent start, he finished T6 at The Open Championship. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, McIlroy missed the cut. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T4).
Patrick Cantlay (+1400) struggled overseas in his last two starts missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and finishing T33 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Cantlay finished T57. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T12).
Xander Schauffele (+1600) has played at TPC Southwind five times before with his best finish coming at the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T6). He’s finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts.
Previous Winners in the Field (TPC Southwind):
Harris English (’13 – FedEx St. Jude Classic)
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Tony Finau (’21 – The Northern Trust), Jason Day (’15 – The Barclays)
Injury Concerns:
Tom Kim (wrist/ankle)
Hayden Buckley (rib)
Seamus Power (hip)
Notable Withdraws:
None
You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.
You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.
Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind):
FedEx St. Jude Championship
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
2022
2021
2020
2019
Collin Morikawa
T5
T26
T20
Hideki Matsuyama
T2
T20
T43
Matthew Fitzpatrick
T5
T57
T6
T4
Sam Burns
T20
T2
Jon Rahm
T5
T52
7
Andrew Putnam
T5
T24
Brian Harman
T3
T36
Sepp Straka
2
Donkeys for Courses (TPC Southwind):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
FedEx St. Jude Championship
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind
2022
2021
2020
2019
Keegan Bradley
MC
T52
T61
Alex Smalley
MC
Kurt Kitayama
MC
Tom Hoge
MC
Patrick Rodgers
MC
Russell Henley
MC
Chris Kirk
MC
Mark Hubbard
MC
Brandon Wu
MC
Adam Hadwin
69
T72
Matthew NeSmith
MC
Previous Winners/ Scores (TPC Southwind):
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
Price: 28-1
2021: Abraham Ancer (-21) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
Price: 50-1
2020: Justin Thomas (-13) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
Price: 12-1
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
Price: 12-1
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
Price: 6-1
Previous Winners Scores & Prices (Event):
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
Price: 28-1
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 60-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – TPC Boston (The Northern Trust)
Price: 20-1
2019: Patrick Reed (-16) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 55-1
2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-18) – Ridgewood Country Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 100-1
Picks (Outrights):
Viktor Hovland (+2000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Collin Morikawa (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Tony Finau (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units
Picks (Top 20):
[You can find better odds on other books but I choose BetMGM since all ties are paid in full. It’s a small field this week so I’m expecting it to be pretty tight when it comes to the leaderboard.]
Tom Kim (-105) – BetMGM
Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units
I’m going to take a shot with Tom Kim this week despite him nursing an ankle injury that he suffered at The Open Championship. He held out of the Wyndham Championship where he got his first win last year but said in an interview earlier this week that it’s “all systems go” so where trusting him.
After he suffered that injury, he was still able to grind out a T2 finish at the Open Championship. Before that, he finished T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He struggled earlier this year but has found his form as of late. Last year at this event, he finished T13.
Brian Harman (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25Units
Brian Harman is coming off his first-ever Major Championship win at Royal Liverpool. Before that, he finished T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T2 at the Travelers Championship. His approach play has been fantastic as of late gaining strokes in four of his last five starts. His putting has also been phenomenal gaining strokes in each of his last seven events. Last year at this event, Harman finished T3 gaining strokes in every category.
His ball-striking has been trending in the right direction which is crucial for this event based on the last few winner’s paths to success. While he’s not the longest of hitters off the tee, his accuracy will provide him an advantage given the penal rough this week.
J.T. Poston (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
J.T. Poston is another guy that is peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five starts. Poston has gained strokes on approach in four of those five starts. His putting has also been much better as of late which has made a huge impact on his finishing position. J.T. does struggle a bit off the tee but his accuracy has been more consistent as of late when comparing it to his earlier starts this season. Last year at this event he finished T20. Based on the way his game’s been trending and his course experience, Poston is set up to play well again at this week’s event.
Byeong-Huh An (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Byeong-Huh An has been playing some of his best golf as of late with a T2 finish at the Wyndham Championship, a T23 finish at The Open Championship, and a T3 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. At the Wyndham, his approach game was the best it’s been all season long. He struggled with his putting for a while but has gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. The last time he played at TPC Southwind was in 2020 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he finished T12. His game fits this style of course and given his recent form, he should have another solid week.
Total Risk on Top 20: 4.05 Units
Bonus Bet:
Rickie Fowler 1st Round Top 10 (+275) – BetMGM
Total Risk on the FedEx St. Jude Championship: 5.29 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
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Cardinals vs Rays -170 O/U 8.5
These free plays have done well this season and I am hoping to give you another winner. The Rays are only three games back to the Orioles and they need to get back in it. The good news is that they play the last place Cardinals who are 49-64 for the year thus far. Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Crds boasting a 3.46 ERA and a 2.93 FIP. Miles Mikolas will give it a go for the red birds at a 3.95 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. Both pitchers are righties. Tampa ranks 4th in wOBA vs right handed pitchers this year while the Cardinals rank 5th. Pretty good for both teams, but the kicker is the bullpen. The Cardinals are worse at hitting against lefties and the Rays will have a full bullpen after a nice days rest from Monday. The Rays have something to play for today while the Cardinals should be in tank mode, I don’t care mode, or whatever mode. Take the Rays.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to talk some NFL preseason football! Kiev goes game by game and talks about the coaching and team motivations. He also discusses some lines that have been over-adjusted in the marketplace. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Two Teams Trending in the Wrong Direction Square OFF
What was once the hottest team in baseball and quite possibly “America’s Team”, has come to a halt! Currently losers of 6 straight, while giving up 60 runs in those 6 games. Yes, 60 I know. Granted 36 were in two games, still jaw dropping, nonetheless. The bad news for Reds starter Brandon Williamson other than having a 4.85 ERA and a 5.72 xERA, the Marlins clobber lefties. Hitting .303 vs them in 2023. Williamson also ranks at the bottom of the league in xBA, xSLG and xERA/xOBA. Pitching has continued to be a problem for them all season and I don’t see it being any different Monday night. Texas will now square off in a new series versus a team WITH pitching, not a good combo. On the mound for Miami is young rookie phenom, Eury Perez. Who is already being compared by the experts to some great pitchers! Home is where the heart is for him, but is it? His away splits can be slightly misleading, remove his disaster of a start vs Atlanta before the break and he only has 3 away starts of the 11. Oh, and one of the three was at Coors Field, where he did not give up a home run and was his first TRUE away start. Another stat I found intriguing, RISP are batting .106 against him. That’s only 5 hits in 47 AB’s!
Now why have we not seen him in the majors in over a month? Quite simply to monitor his innings. The Marlins optioned him back to the minor leagues on July 7. Prior to this season, Perez had never thrown more than 78 innings in a season with the organization. After his July 6th start, he was already at 84 1/3 total innings between MLB and the minor-leagues. He’s now fresh, more confident than ever and should be the burst this Marlins squad needs. Losers of 15 of 20 since the break and come into this game losing 6/7 and four straights, yet still sit half a game outside the wild card.
Due to the Marlins struggles and being on the road, I was hoping we would get plus money on them. The fact they opened as favorites (-125) and will go off as favorites on the road (currently -152) is all I need to know. Let’s back Eury and the Marlins with a unit upgrade!
Marlins ML -126 (FanDuel) risk 1.89u to win 1.5u
Mu customers got this number in at -126, tremendous closing line value. As well as 3 other premium plays that are also getting great CLV. If you’re looking to sign-up for all my premium plays, click the link below to get involved. Be sure to apply for the promocode Football2023 for 50% off! That’s only $50 for 30+ days’ worth of picks. You do the math, very little per day. Also be sure to follow me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
