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UFC Nashville Free Play – Sports Betting

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111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Jeremiah Wells vs Carlston Harris -105

This should be a fun fight today in Nash-Vegas.   Wells from the US of A is coming into this one on a tear winning six fights in a row.   He is a forward stepping BJJ fighter who can do it standing as well as on the ground.  His opponent Carleston Harris is from a small country known as Guyana.  He has done quite well in the UFC minus one hickup vs the best contender in the middleweight class in Shavkat Rakhmonov.  I will give him a pass for that one, but I will not give him a pass for the weaker strength of schedule that he has fought otherwise compared to Wells.   Jeremiah has beaten Matt Semelsberger and Court McGee while Carlston’s best accomplishment was against Jared Gordon.   Wells is the better wrestler in this bout with 3.93 takedowns per minute to 3.04 for Harris.  Wells also has defended takedowns 100% of his fights.   Gonna go with Wells here at the short price.   I expect this fight to end inside the distance being that both of these fighters are ever so aggressive.

Jeremiah Wells -115 – 1.5 stars

Nascar Pick 8/6/2023

Nascar H2H Matchup Joey Logano Over Bubba Wallace -114 @BetRivers Sportsbook

Risk 3.42 Units To Win 3 Units

Coming off a winner last week with Keselowski over Reddick and going 2-1 since posting my plays here at The OddsBreakers. Will look for another winner this Sunday as Nascar is headed to Michigan International Speedway and I like my chances here with Joey Logano over Bubba Wallace. Logano has had an average finish at Michigan of 10.6 in the last 8 races and also picked up a 1st place finish here in 2019. Wallace has an average finish at Michigan of 18.5 and in the last 8 has only beaten Logano twice here at this track. Michigan is a fast track with low tire wear just like Texas Motor Speedway and Logano has yet to lose here heads up against Wallace since he entered the Cup Series back in 2018. The last 8 races at Texas Logano has had an average finish of 9.3 and Wallace with a pathetic average finish of 23.6. Logano has shown more speed than Wallace recently and at a fast track like Michigan you need speed so take Joey Logano over Bubba Wallace.

Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 10. RB Landscape in the NFL, Podcast Play and how I do NOT go on TILT

Roccos SPORTS Mission

Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 10 is available for your listening pleasure.

I will cover the RB landscape currently going on in the NFL, then we will recap our Podcast Play from last weekend, as well as go over my Podcast Play this weekend. End it a “Reflect with Rocco” segment, going over how I do NOT go on TILT.

Would you like all of my Premium Plays? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all of my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a small amount daily. Just use the promocode Football2023 to receive 50% off!

I’ve done extremely well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! My football package is UP and available, just use the promocode Football2023 to receive 20% off! Be sure to sign up early and don’t miss any of the action for this upcoming season.

I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well. Put your trust in Rocco.

MLB 8/4/23 Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Rays vs Tigers – +130 O/U 9

This is a bit of a funky line to me.   I mean, I know that Reese Olson has done a better job for Detroit compared to the others with a 4.71 ERA, but why are the Rays this small of a favorite to such a poor team?    Zack Littell takes the helm for Tampa with a 4.2 ERA and a 3.51 FIP with most of his time at the Yankees and he performed quite well @ Houston on July 30th.  The Rays are number three in wRC+ while the Tigers are 27th.   The Rays bullpen is where they lack some at 22nd in FIP, but Detroit’s isn’t exactly amazing at 15th respectively.   Gonna take the Rays who are still fighting to be on top in the AL East.

Rays -142 – 1 star

Podcast 47 – 23 – With Ross Tucker & Kyle Hunter – NFL 2023 – The ACC Preview – UFC Nashville – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a Massive show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks comes on to break down the ACC and Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL is back to break down some NFL season win totals!  First, Kiev talks about some stuff that we have going on at The OddsBreakers website!   Then, Kyle comes on and the guys get right into the big rule change in college football for 2023.   After that, Kiev and Kyle discuss the ACC and go over some win totals within that conference.  Then, Ross comes on and the guys talk some much needed NFL rule changes.   After that, Ross and Kiev discuss NFL season win totals with some FREE PLAYS!  Finally, Kiev talks some UFC for the weekend with a free play and more!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Audio Player

Wyndham Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Lee Hodges backers last week at the 3M Open. He entered the final round with a massive lead and never faltered going on to win the event by 7 strokes!

We head to the final event of the FedEx Cup regular season, the Wyndham Championship.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Tom Kim became the first player born in the 2000s to win a PGA TOUR event last year at the Wyndham Championship. In addition to that, he’s also the youngest player to have ever won this event. Kim started off the tournament with a quadruple bogey and rallied to win, also the first player in PGA Tour history to have accomplished that feat. He enters this event in great form having finished inside the top 10 in each of his past two starts.

The Wyndham Champion concludes the FedEx Cup Regular season. Next week, the three-event FedEx Cup Playoffs will begin at TPC Southwind. The top 70 players advance to next week’s event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Last year, the top 75 advanced so it will be a critical week for some of those players on the cut line.

A few of those players just outside the top 70 include Ben Griffin (No. 71), Cam Davis (No. 72), K.H. Lee (No. 73), S.H. Kim (No. 74), and Justin Thomas (No. 79).

Ryder Cup captains Luke Donald and Zach Johnson, are also in the field this week.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: August 3rd, 2023 – August 6th, 2023
  • Location: Greensboro, North Carolina, United States
  • Course: Sedgefield Country Club
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,131 Yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Champion bermudagrass .120”
  • Fairways: Bermudagrass .400”
  • Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5”
  • Bunkers: 52
  • Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12.5+ ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $7,600,000/ $1,368,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2022: 69.26 (-0.74), Rank 27 of 50
    • 2021: 68.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 51
    • 2020: 68.78 (-1.22), Rank 29 of 41
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2022: -1
    • 2021: -3
    • 2020: -3

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Donald Ross (1926)
  • Renovations: Kris Spence (2007)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – RESULTS
      • Donald Ross Link
    • Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
      • Similar green complex and yardage
    • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open – RESULTS
      • Similar green complex and yardage, Accuracy off the tee, Easy scoring conditions
    • Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage – RESULTS
      • Similar green complex and yardage, Accuracy off the tee, Easy scoring conditions
    • Sea Island Golf Club – The RSM Classic – RESULTS
      • Similar green complex and yardage, Accuracy off the tee, Easy scoring conditions
  • Designer Link (Donald Ross):
    • Detroit Golf Club – Donald Ross (1916) – Rocket Mortgage Classic
    • East Lake Golf Club – Donald Ross (1913) Renovation – TOUR Championship
  • Comparable Location (Greensboro, North Carolina):
    • Quail Hollow Club – Charlotte, North Carolina – Wells Fargo Championship
    • Congaree Golf Club – Ridgeland, South Carolina – THE CJ CUP
    • Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head Island, South Carolina – RBC Heritage
  • Comparable Yardage (7,131 Yards):
    • Silverado Resort and Spa – 7,123 Yards – Fortinet Championship
    • PGA National Resort – 7,125 Yards – The Honda Classic
  • Comparable Greens (Champion Bermudagrass .120”):
    • The Country Club of Jackson – Champion bermudagrass .110” – Sanderson Farms Championship
    • Congaree Golf Club – Champion bermudagrass – THE CJ CUP
    • TPC Southwind – Champion bermudagrass .090” – FedEx St. Jude Championship
  • Comparable Average Green Size (6,000 sq. ft.):
    • Monterey Peninsula Country Club – 6,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
    • Corales Golf Course – 6,000 sq. ft. – Corales Puntacana Championship
    • Keene Trace Golf Club – 6,000 sq. ft. – Barbasol Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, August 3rd, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, August 4th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, August 5th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, August 6th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Rain 77 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 62% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Isolated Thunderstorms 83 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 47% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 87 F, 8 mp/h SW, 73% Humidity, 36% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: PM Thunderstorms 89 F, 9 mp/h SW, 70% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Wyndham Championship was founded in 1938 as the Greater Greensboro Open. It is the seventh oldest tournament on the PGA Tour excluding Major Championships. In 2007 the title sponsor changed, and the event was renamed to what it’s currently called. Along with the name change, the tournament was also moved from autumn to mid-August.

This tournament has been held in the greater Greensboro area throughout its entire history. In the first four years of the event, it was played at both Sedgefield Country Club and Starmount Forest Country Club. From 1977 – 2007, the tournament was held at Forest Oaks. However, since then, the Wyndham Champion has taken place at Sedgefield Country Club.

In 2018, Brandt Snedeker posted a 59 in the first round. This was just the tenth sub-60 round in the history of the PGA Tour.

In 2021, Kevin Kisner won the six-man playoff which tied the PGA Tour record for the largest number of participants in a sudden-death playoff.

  • Most Wins at Event:
    • 8, Sam Snead – 1938, 1946, 1949, 1950, 1955, 1956, 1960, 1965
  • 72-Hole Record:
    • 258, Henrik Stenson (2017), J.T. Poston (2019)
  • 18-Hole Record:
    • 59, Brandt Snedeker (1st round, 2018)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Sedgefield Country Club is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average. Based on that, we should see another winner around -20 this week. Driving accuracy will be placed at a premium this week given the fact that the bermuda rough can force players to lay up based on their lie.

Sedgefield Country Club is on the shorter side measuring 7,131 yards. It ranks 20th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 9th of 46, with the average fairway width being 28.9 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 52 bunkers which ranks as the 7th fewest out of the 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s at Sedgefield range from 174 to 235 yards. Last year, holes No. 3., No. 7, and No. 16 had a scoring average under par. The lone other par 3s, No. 12 had a scoring average of 0.135 above par.

No. 3, 174 yards, Par 3: “This mid-length par three hole is generally played into the prevailing wind and contains three of the deepest bunkers on the course, short and right. The large, somewhat subtle green narrows the deeper into the green one plays. Long and left is a very difficult up and down, with the green sloping away from the player.”

No. 7, 223 yards, Par 3: “On this long par three, the green is guarded on three sides by a deep creek and features a soft punch bowl green with very difficult hole locations in the corners. Par is a great score on this demanding hole.”

No. 12, 235 yards, Par 3: “The longest par three on the course will require a very precise approach into a dramatic two-tier green cut into the face of a hill. Anything short will roll well back from the green and require a difficult up and down. Dead center of this green is the preferred line and will give the player the best chance of escaping with a par or occasional birdie.”

No. 16, 175 yards, Par 3: “This short par three will provide the player an opportunity to be aggressive. However, the horseshoe-shaped green will wreak havoc on misplayed tee shots and chips from around the green. Two four-foot-deep pot bunkers guarding the green require a demanding short iron approach.”

There are twelve Par 4’s at Sedgefield with the majority (eight) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. The two toughest holes are No. 14 and No. 18, which both play over 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the two toughest Par 4’s last year were No. 11 (+0.235) and No. 14 (+0.258).

No. 2, 442 yards, Par 4: “One of the best holes ever designed by Donald Ross. The tee shot will require a slight fade over the middle of three diagonal cross bunkers to set up the shortest and best line into a green that’s well-protected on the right by a creek. Approach shots should favor the left side of the green, which leans hard right toward the creek.”

No. 11, 486 yards, Par 4: “The proper line for this tee shot is the bunker seen in the distance short and right of the green. The severely canted fairway will kick a right-to-left tee shot into the left-hand rough. The approach shot into this green is deceptive and can be bounced in by landing a long to middle iron just over the approach bunker 25 yards short and right of the green.”

No. 14, 505 yards, Par 4: “This very difficult and demanding long par four requires a right-to-left tee shot over the fairway bunker at 275 yards. Two center-line bunkers create a deceptive approach into this “skyline” green. The green is the largest on the course and probably one of the most difficult to putt due to its severe slope from back right to front left.”

No. 17, 406 yards, Par 4: “One of the most beautiful holes in North Carolina. This deep, saddled fairway meanders up an old creek bed filled in by Ross. A short iron approach into the smallest green on the course is compounded by the difficulty of finding a level lie in the fairway. A natural amphitheater surrounds the green, making it
a great place to view an exciting finish.”

The two Par 5’s on the course, No. 5 and No. 15, are where players need to take advantage of scoring opportunities. These holes both played under par last year with just seventeen bogeys being made on No. 5 throughout the entire tournament.

No. 5, 529 yards, Par 5: “The first par five of the course is easily reachable in two shots. However, a deep hollow running diagonally across the putting surface will make getting up and down for birdie a challenge. The key to this hole is finding a level lie in the well-undulating fairway. Any shot hit short of this green will roll well back down the fairway.”

No. 15, 545 yards, Par 5: “The ideal tee shot to this reachable par five is directly at the fairway bunker. The downhill tee shot must avoid the “sheeps” fescue grass to the right and just over the bunker. Deep bunkers surround this undulating green. The far back right corner pin is the most difficult location, especially if going for the green in two.”

Image

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 2, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Wyndham Championship. The Wyndham Championship has eight sponsor exemptions, and the top four finishers in the qualifying tournament. Only four of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Sungjae Im (+1600), enters the week off a top-20 finish at the Open Championship. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but has won on the Korean Tour at the Woori Financial Group Championship. Im has some strong course history at Sedgefield Country Club finishing T2, T24, T9, and T6 in his four appearances here.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800), has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts. He hasn’t played all that much on the PGA Tour this season due to an injury. In terms of course history, Hideki has missed the cut in his last two starts at the Wyndham Championship. His best finish at Sedgefield Country Club was T3 back in 2016.

Sam Burns (+2000), lone win on the PGA Tour was at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play when he defeated Cameron Young. However, he hasn’t been playing great as of late missing the cut in two of his last four starts. Burns has only played in this tournament once before finishing T13 in 2020.

Adam Scott (+2200), has played in this event five times before with his best finish coming in 2021 (T2). Outside of that, he hasn’t finished inside the top 60. In his most recent start, he finished T33 at the Open Championship. He currently ranks 80th in the FedEx Cup so he’ll need to have a solid week if he hopes to play in the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Shane Lowry (+2200), struggled at the Open Championship missing the cut. However, before that, he had three consecutive top-20 finishes. Lowry will make his sixth appearance at the Wyndham Championship with his best finish coming in 2017 (T7).

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field:
    • Jim Herman (’20), JT Poston (’19), Si Woo Kim (’16), Davis Love III (’15), Webb Simpson (’11), and Ryan Moore (’09)
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • Taylor Montgomery, Luke List, Lee Hodges, Davis Love III, Keith Mitchell

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

Field Rating: 236 Field Rating: 260 Field Rating: 325 Field Rating: 243 Field Rating: 170
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Sungjae Im T2 T24 T9 T6
Cameron Davis T15 T22
Webb Simpson WD T7 T3 2 T2
Russell Henley T5 T7 T9 T31 MC
Denny McCarthy MC T15 T9 T22 T36
Billy Horschel T27 2 T6 T11
Alex Smalley T13 T29
Si Woo Kim WD T2 T3 5 MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

Field Rating: 236 Field Rating: 260 Field Rating: 325 Field Rating: 243 Field Rating: 170
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
J.J. Spaun MC MC MC T69
Hank Lebioda MC MC T42 MDF
Michael Gligic T61 T65 T59
Ben Martin MC T70 T59
Nick Watney MC MC MC MC MC
Kramer Hickok T71 MC T51 MC
Beau Hossler T65 MC MC
Luke Donald T54 MC MC MC MC
Charley Hoffman T68 MC MC
Austin Cook MC MC T74 T72
Adam Schenk MC MC T51 MC MC
Aaron Baddeley MC MC MC T24
Michael Kim T65 MC MC
Martin Trainer T68 MC MC MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Tom Kim (-20)
    • Price: 40-1
  • 2021: Kevin Kisner (-15)
    Price: 55-1
  • 2020: Jim Herman (-21)
    Price: 600-1
  • 2019: J.T. Poston (-22)
    Price: 100-1
  • 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)
    Price: 28-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2022: Tom Kim
    • 7 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
    • T26 – 3M Open (PGA)
    • T47 – The Open Championship (PGA)
    • 3 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
    • 23 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • 2021: Kevin Kisner
    • 63 – WGC-FedEx. St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
    • 73 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
    • T8 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
    • T5 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
    • T55 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • 2020: Jim Herman
    • T77 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
    • MC – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
    • T33 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
    • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
  • 2019: J.T. Poston
    • T29 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)
    • MC – John Deere Classic (PGA)
    • T11 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
    • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
    • T52 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • 2018: Brandt Snedeker
    • T42 – PGA Championship (PGA)
    • T8 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
    • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
    • T3 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
    • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last Starts at Event):

  • 2022: Tom Kim
    • First Time at Event
  • 2021: Kevin Kisner
    • 2020 – T3
    • 2017 – T42
    • 2016 – T10
    • 2014 – T8
    • 2012 – T46
    • 2011 – T59
  • 2020: Jim Herman
    • 2015 – T18
    • 2014 – MC
    • 2013 – T11
    • 2011 – T59
  • 2019: J.T. Poston
    • 2018 – MC
    • 2017 – T50
  • 2018: Brandt Snedeker
    • 2016 – T3
    • 2015 – T43
    • 2014 – T5
    • 2013 – MC
    • 2012 – T28
    • 2011 – MC
    • 2010 – T8
    • 2009 – T5
    • 2008 – T69
    • 2007 – 1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Sam Burns (+2800) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  • Shane Lowry (+3300) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
  • Alex Smalley (+4500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
  • Cameron Davis (+4500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
  • Chris Kirk (+5000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.06 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Denny McCarthy (+110) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
  • J.T. Poston (+138) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Ben Griffin (+115) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
  • Adam Schenk (+125) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Wyndham Championship: 5.06 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.

NFL Preseason Coaching Records For 2023 – Sports Investing

NFL Preseason Football is right around the corner and coming in hot!  It is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, quarterback changes, new coordinators, and maybe the most important factors in motivation.  Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.

Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes, and less preseason games due to Covid in 2020/2021, so many of the coaches this year do not have as many data points.  My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win.   This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.

Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches.  It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do.  I personally have to have at least eight games played, or at least two seasons of pre-season football to make a determination.   As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have zero significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game.  Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs.  They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason.  Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs.  These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.

On a sadder note, over the offseason we lost a coach that was starting to trend to be a nice fade in Kliff Kingsbury.  He was 2-4 in preseason football.   May the Gods bless him with a new place to coach football.

Some of the most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:

  • Mike Tomlin at 38-24 at 61% – I would make the playoffs if you counted the preseason!
  • Sean McDermott at 12-7 at 67% – I will not lose!
  • John Harbaugh at 43-12 at 78% – Let’s all get injured so we can heal up before the playoffs!

Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:

  • Dan Campbell at 1-5 at 17% – Lose more preseason to win more later!
  • Brandon Staley at 1-5 at 17% – I am secretly trying to win!
  • Zac Taylor and Matt Lefleur at 3-7 at 30% – Winning begins with losing!

When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason.  Now I know that we only have three preseason games since 2021, and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end.  Due to the change, I had to recompile our data to show the coaching record for week one, the middle weeks, and the final week.  I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021.  Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 14-1 in game one but only 9-5 at the final week (only lol).  Maybe be a little more careful with that.  Also, Bill Belichick is 65% at 15-8 in game one, and only 41% at 9-13 in the final week.  Another thing to look at is that Mike Tomlin is 56% at 10-8 in week one but 64% at 18-10 in the middle weeks.  If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.

I know what you are thinking.  Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS?   Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition.  The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.

A few things to keep in mind for 2023.  The preseason schedule remains only three games.  Even though this change is still at it’s youth, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game.  There also is a lot of up and comers with coaches like Nick Siriani at 1-4 so far in the preseason, and Robert Salah at 5-0.  I think that looking at the coaching records week by week maybe the best way to gain an edge this preseason.

In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish.  If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.

MLB Tuesday Free Play – Sports Betting

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111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

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Diamondbacks vs Giants -110 O/U 7.5

Two good pitchers facing each other today.   Zach Gallen for the Snakes coming off of his first real bad performance, but he is still boasting a 3.36 ERA and 9.42 K/9.   Alex Cobb has been looking sharp himself with a 2.97 ERA and 8.49 K/9.   I’ll call this matchup a push for now, but the key to this handicap is that the Diamondbacks are are the healthier team and they are betting hitters against right handed bats ranking 8th in wOBA to the Giants at 14h.   I think that Gallen bounces back here and the Snakes stay ahead of the game for the first five innnings.

Diamondbacks 1st 5 -110 – 1 star

Podcast 46 – 23 – NFL 2023 Preseason Strategy – Motivation – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to break down NFL 2023 Preseason football!  First, Kiev talks about our 500th episode and how amazing it is to have such loyal listeners.   Next, Kiev gets into how to bet the NFL preseason.  We go over some things you should do and some things that you should avoid.   Then, we go over some coaching records and discuss how motivation is so important when it comes to handicapping this games.  Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE NFL FUTURE PLAY that he likes for 2023!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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MLB Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting

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111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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Red Sox vs Giants +103 O/U 8

This should be a fun game to watch.  The wind should be blowing out to left center while we have a lefty pitching for the Red Sox in James Paxton.   Paxton isn’t a bad pitcher at all and he is actually above average with a 3.45 ERA and a 3.7 FIP.   My bigger concern is that the Red Sox used up some of their best bullpen in last nights win.   The Giants start Ryan Walker who has a nice 2.7 ERA over 33 innings but a worse FIP at 3.85.   He could regress some for sure.   The Red Sox are 6th in runs while the Giants rank 15th.   I think we see some hitting this game and the score goes over 8 total runs.

Over 8 runs -120 – 1 star