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Podcast 61 – 23 – With Parker Fleming and Peter Simones – College Football Week 2 & NFL Week 1 Plays – Contests – UFC 293 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE show for you today!   Parker Fleming @Statsowar from @Sumersports and Peter Simones @TheSZN come on to talk some college football and NFL contests!  First, Kiev talks about some things we have going on at The OddsBreakers as well as a very prominent NFL referee that has retired.   Next, Kiev talks about the NFL week 1 slate with a few FREE PLAYS.   Then, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that went 11-6-1 last year!  After that, Parker comes on and the guys get right into his wonderful stats and how they can be used to find an edge in your weekly handicapping.  Parker and Kiev give out a few FREE PLAYS for college football week 2!   Next, Peter Simones comes on to talk about one of the best contest sites in all of sports that has been catching fire over the past 15 years @TheSZN!   What kind of contests do they offer?  Can we get in mid season? Then, Kiev talks about some NFL and college football sharp money movement for the week.   Finally, we quickly talk some UFC 293 with a few plays and a few leans!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL – Full Season Preview 9/9 – Playoffs, Props & Player Awards

By
Shawn Knoche
-
3d illustration of an NFL logo behind a transparent silver American football on top of a green football field

We’ve arrived. It’s now less than 24 hours until the NFL Season kicks off in Kansas City. This is the final of 9 preview articles that broke down the season win totals and projections for each team and outlined where value could be found. In this article I will give you a fun mock playoff scenario to look at conference and Super Bowl odds, and some other player bets I feel have some value.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.

Playoffs

As I have gone through each division article, I’ve highlighted where I think each team will finish based on my power rankings and head to head simulations. I will use those records here to give you a mock playoffs for this fall.

AFC Seeds

1-Los Angeles Chargers, 2-Buffalo, 3-Baltimore, 4-Jacksonville, 5-New York Jets, 6-Kansas City, 7- Cincinnati

NFC Seeds

1-San Francisco, 2-Philadelphia, 3-New Orleans, 4-Detroit, 5-Dallas, 6-Seattle, 7-Atlanta

Wild Card Weekend Scores

Buffalo 31 Cincinnati 30 – Baltimore 34 Kansas City 30 – New York Jets 27 Jacksonville 14

Philadelphia 37 Atlanta 13 – New Orleans 24 Seattle 13 – Dallas 31 Detroit 27

Divisional Round Scores

San Francisco 20 Dallas 17 – New Orleans 31 Philadelphia 25

New York Jets 16 Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Buffalo 28 Baltimore 27

Conference Championships

New Orleans 24 San Francisco 10

Buffalo 19 New York Jets 14

Super Bowl

Buffalo 31 New Orleans 23

Futures Bets – Use a Dutching Tool to Maximize value for what you are playing here.

Super Bowl – Buffalo +900, Los Angeles Chargers +1800, Jacksonville +2500, New Orleans +3700. I don’t hate mixing Detroit in for the NFC. Fading Philly and San Fran is the only way to go here. I think the AFC is wide open so finding some of the longer shots I think will get in the dance is what I looked at.

Season Long Player Awards and Props – These are all Beer or Pizza Bets for me. Nothing major, something to cheer for with some value.

MVP – Justin Herbert +950, Tua +2200. If Tua somehow stays healthy for a full season and the Dolphins reach the playoffs this is a great price

QB With Most passing Yards – Same two Guys, Herbert +425, Tua +2000

QB With Most Interceptions Thrown – Anthony Richardson +1800

Most Rushing Yards for Season – Derrick Henry +750, Tony Pollard +1500

Most Rushing Touchdowns for Season – Nick Chubb +750, Tony Pollard +1700

Rookie With Most Rushing Touchdowns – Anthony Richardson +325

Rookie With Most Receptions – Zay Flowers +400

Comeback Player of the Year – This is probably going to be Damar Hamlin, but just in case I’m going Calvin Ridley +2200

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Devin Witherspoon +950, Lukas Van Ness +1000

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Bryce Young +425

Defensive Player of the Year – T.J. Watt +850

Coach of the Year – Robert Saleh +2000

General Props –Again, these are all Beer or Pizza Bets for me. Nothing major, something to cheer for with some value.

Fewest Point Scored in Season – Carolina +1500

Team With Least Points Allowed Regular Season – New Orleans +1500. I really like this one with their schedule and went a full unit on this play.

Most Points Scored Regular Season – Los Angeles Chargers +1000

Team with Best Regular Season Record – New Orleans +2200, Los Angeles Chargers +2500, New York Jets +2500

Team with worst regular season record – Houston +700

Best of Luck to Everyone this year, and keep following along here at TheOddsbreakers.com

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 2 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:

  • Colorado hosting Nebraska after beating TCU outright.
  • Texas State at UTSA after beating Baylor outright.
  • Fresno State hosting Eastern Washington after beating Purdue.
  • Wyoming hosting Portland State after beating Texas Tech.
  • Florida State hosting Southern Miss after beating LSU.

Get Up Spots:

  • Baylor better get up vs Utah with a backup QB to gain some respect.
  • Texas Tech better wake vs Oregon this week.  They are only dogs by 6.5 right now.
  • UTSA needs to get up vs Texas State after losing to Houston.
  • Purdue better do something at Virginia Tech after losing to Fresno state.

College Football Week 1 Misleading Final Scores and injuries.

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
  • Nebraska out-gained Minnesota 295 to 251 yet lost 13-10.  A pathetic 4-1 turnover ratio and two of them at the end of the game killed their hopes.
  • Nothing misleading in Florida’s yards.   Many were garbage time and Utah didn’t have Rising.
  • Utah State out-gained Iowa 329 to 284 yet lost 24-14.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and 10 penalties hurt the Aggies.
  • Injury to starting QB Tony Muskett from Virginia.  Left non-throwing shoulder but day to day.   Probably misses a week.
  • South Florida out-gained Western Kentucky 540 to 465 yet lost 41-24.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and 11 penalties killed the Bulls.
  • Baylor out-gained Texas State 524 to 441 yet lost 42-31.  A 2-1 turnover ratio, nine penalties and poor red zone hurt the Bears.
  • Injury to Baylor QB Blake Shapen.  MCL sprain.  Out a few weeks.
  • UTSA out-gained Houston 417 to 334 yet lost 17-14.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the road runners.
  • Toledo out-gained Illinois 416 to 374 yet lost 30-28.   Equal turnovers but bad clock management and red zone killed Toledo.
  • Texas Tech out-gained Wyoming 431 to 320 yet lost 35-33.  They won the turnover battle 2-1 but poor defensive red zone killed them.   The team just choked a 17-0 lead away.
  • Clemson out-gained Duke 422 to 374 yet lost 28-7.  A 3-2 turnover ratio, bad red zone hurt the Tigers.

Fantasy Football Low Floor High Ceiling guys

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

QBs:

  1.  Anthony Richardson

2.  Justin Fields

3.  Jordan Love

4.  DeShawn Watson

5.  Mac Jones

6.  Sam Howell

7.  Brock Purdy

RBS:

  1. Travis Etienne
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs
  3. Rhamondre Stevenson
  4. Alexander Mattison
  5. Khalil Herbert
  6. Rachaad White
  7. Cam Akers
  8. JK Dobbins
  9. De’Von Achane
  10. Jonathan Taylor

WRs:

  1. Deebo Samuel
  2. Calvin Ridley
  3. George Pickens
  4. DeVonta Smith
  5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  6. Michael Pittman
  7. Jalin Hyatt
  8. Romeo Doubs
  9. Jameson Williams
  10. Terrance Marshall

TE:

  1. Kyle Pitts
  2. Dalton Kincaid
  3. Luke Musgrave
  4. Michael Mayer
  5. Sam Laporta

Def:

  1.  Seattle
  2. Jaguars

 

 

Podcast 60 – 23 – College Football Week 1 Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 1 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!   College Football week 1 is in the books and it’s time for a recap.  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college football with some thoughts.  Next, Kiev gets into the good the bad and the ugly from last weekend.  Then, we get into come college football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 2.  Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football 2023 low floor high ceiling boom or bust type guys.   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH!  OR GET KIEV O’NEIL’S MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE AT $75/mo  Click here:   https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
Offer expires September 7th, 2023

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!

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The Bayou Heads to Orlando, Geaux Tigers!

By
Eric Rocco
-

Let’s build off our incredible 5-2 day yesterday and leave Week 1 in the dust with a W!

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I’ve done extremely well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! My football package is UP and available, just use the promocode Football2023 to receive 20% off! Be sure to sign up early and don’t miss any of the action for this upcoming season. Just click the link below to get involved now!

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LSU at FSU +1.5 O/U 56.5, 7:30pm ET

The Tigers and Seminoles will meet Sunday night in Orlando at Camping World Stadium for a top 10 clash. While this is considered a ‘neutral’ site game, I would imagine we will see Noles fans there in bunches. Two senior QB’s will square off in FSU’s Jordan Travis and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. While Travis might be better through the air, Daniels is always a threat with legs. To me on paper they’re equal in the end, so how do we separate these two teams? Well, each team had rough stretches defensively in 2022, but in my opinion facing offenses like Ole Miss, Georgia, Bama and Tennessee is far more difficult than anything the ACC has to offer. Not to mention it appears LSU got better defensively through the transfer portal this offseason, ranking 2nd overall in the country only 2nd to “Prime’s” Buffaloes. The Tigers were able to get 8 four-star transfers and 1 five-star, with five of those eight making the starting line-up for week 1. All on the defensive side of the ball! Let’s keep in mind the revenge factor as well, just one year ago this time FSU beat LSU 24-23 on a blocked extra point with zeroes on the clock.

Brian Kelly turned this program around immediately, making them a championship contender in just his 2nd season in the bayou. Yes, they have a great offense, but I think in the end it will be their defense that slows down Travis and company making them victorious to kick off the season. Let’s back the Tigers tonight on the money-line, with a unit upgrade!

LSU ML -122 (FanDuel) risk 1.53u to win 1.25u

NFL Week 1 Picks

By
Greg Silvestri
-

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns Moneyline +118 @Caesars Sportsbook Risk 3 Units To Win 3.54 Units

The Cleveland Browns will host the Cincinnati Bengals week 1 Sunday September 10th and the Browns on paper have a talented roster coming into the season. I expect the Browns to have a good day on the ground and through the air on this Bengals defense, as they lost both Jessie Bates and Von Bell to there defensive backfield in free agency.  I grade out the Bengals linebackers as an average unit so they will have there hands full trying to stop Nick Chubb who I think is the best running back in the NFL. The Browns should win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball as they have above average units especially with there key additions on defense in free agency as they got Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Shelby Harris. The Browns defensive pressure rate in 2022 was 18.2% per dropback which ranked 27th in the NFL, but I think Myles Garrett and company will turn that around this year and get after Joe Burrow in this game and force him to make bad decisions. The wrong team is favored in my opinion as I have the Browns as a 2 point favorite according to my power ratings. Take the Browns on the moneyline against the Bengals week 1.

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

New England Patriots +3.5 -110 @BetRivers Sportsbook Risk 3.3 Units To Win 3 Units

The New England Patriots have a home game week 1 against the defending NFC champions the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots bring in Bill O’ Brien to be there new offensive coordinator which has to be an upgrade over last year play caller Matt Patricia who was clueless scheming plays for the Patriots. The Patriots bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki hoping to boost this offense which ranked 24th in EPA. My main handicap for this game will be on the defensive side of the ball where the Patriots have a ceiling to be a top 5 defense this year as they did rank 3rd last year in EPA defense. The Eagles do have a really talented roster coming back this season, but do lose both there OC and DC to head coaching jobs which will be a struggle to the start of the season. I make the Eagles a 1 point favorite against the Patriots in my power ratings and the Patriots are catching +3.5, which I think is to high against an elite defense in the Patriots at home. Take the +3.5 with the Patriots in a tight low scoring defensive game.

College Football Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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71 % at 5-1 For 2023 Preseason football!   Up 5U!

73% at 11-4 in 2022 Preseason football!   Up 12U!

111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Middle Tennessee State vs Alabama -40 O/U 51.5

When is a point spread too many points?   Well for Alabama, many times it is never too many, but it all depends on the situation.  Nick Saben is a man who likes to stick it to the teams in his own conference that he recruits against, but as far as the little guy, he tends to have some compassion and does his best not to embarrass them.  Rick Stockstill is the coach for MTSU and he has been there for quite some time now.   I do not think that Saben wants to crush this team.   Even more eminent is the quarterback situation for Alabama.  There are three guys in the mix in Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner that will all need some reps today.   This situation doesn’t really bode well for consistency.   Last year, the Blue Raiders started the season out poorly, yet they improved at the end winning four games in a row.   They return a lot of production on defense at 86% which might be able to force a few punts here and there.  Being that Stockstill is an offensive guy, so I could see a garbage touchdown at the end if needed.   Take the points.

MTSU +40 – 2 stars

 

 

Free Pick Friday! Every friday at 2PM Eastern 11AM Pacific

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

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Offer expires September 7th, 2023

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

71 % at 5-1 For 2023 Preseason football!   Up 5U!

73% at 11-4 in 2022 Preseason football!   Up 12U!

111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers

 

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