On this week’s episode of Prop $hots, @PropDr_, @SpittinPicklets and I break down our best bets for Genesis Scottish Open. We also talk about the Barbasol Championship a little as well.
Topics:
Introduction
Storylines
Course Information
Name
Par
Yardage
Greens
Architect
Comps
Weather
Field
Previous Winners
Favorites
Horses for Courses
Donkeys for Courses
Picks
Outrights
Placements
Matchups
Twitter Handles:
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Jeremy: @PropDr_
Tyson: @SpittinPicklets
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Congrats to all Sepp Straka backers last week. He was unbelievable on Sunday posting a 62 to win the John Deere Classic by two strokes over Alex Smalley. I liked our position heading into Sunday with Schenk and McCarthy both tied for second but neither had particularly great final rounds.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Outside of the Genesis Scottish Open, the Barbasol Championship is the last chance for players who are non-exempt to earn a spot in next week’s event, The Open Championship.
As it is an alternate event, this week’s field is extremely weak. Only eleven of the world’s top two-hundred golfers are in the field. Lucas Glover (#112) is the highest-ranked golfer followed by Taylor Pendrith (#113) and Carl Yuan (#144). Two previous champions, Jim Herman and Troy Merritt are also in the field this week.
Given that this is a co-sanctioned event approximately 50 DP World Tour pros will compete, or a chance to earn non-member FedExCup points in the pursuit of PGA TOUR cards. The top-ranked players from the DP World Tour teeing it up this week include Julien Guerrier (No. 32), Aaron Cockerill (No. 40), and Marcus Helligkilde (No. 44).
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 13th, 2023 – July 16th, 2023
Location: Nicholasville, Kentucky, United States
Course: Keene Trace Golf Club (Champion Trace)
Course Type: Resort
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,328 yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Bluegrass / Fescue
Bunkers: 76
Water Hazard(s): 6 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 11 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $3,800,000/ $684,000
FedEx Cup Points: 300
Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
Historic Cut Line:
2022: -5
2021: -4
2019: -4
Course Scoring Average:
2022: 69.82 (-2.18), Rank 46 of 50
2021: 69.89 (-2.11), Rank 46 of 51
2019: 69.59 (-2.41), Rank 46 of 49
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Arthur Hills (1987)
Renovations: N/A
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
TPC Craig Ranch – AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Twin Cities – 3M Open
Designer Link (Arthur Hills):
None
Comparable Location (Nicholasville, Kentucky):
Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, Ohio – the Memorial Tournament
TPC Southwind – Memphis, Tennessee – FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Deere Run – Silvis, Illinois – John Deere Classic
Comparable Yardage (7,328 Yards):
Riviera Country Club – 7,322 Yards – The Genesis Invitational
The Barbasol Championship debuted in 2015 as an alternate event to The Open Championship in Britain in July. The first three additions of this event were played at the Grand National course of the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail. In 2018, the tournament moved to its current venue, the Keene Trace Golf Club.
Starting last year this tournament became a co-sanctioned event with the European Tour, played the same week as an alternate event to the Genesis Scottish Open. With that change, the winner of the Barbasol Championship, if he is not already qualified, will earn the final spot in The Open Championship.
72-Hole Record:
262, Jim Herman (2019)
18-Hole Record:
60, James Hahn (Round 3, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Keene Trace Golf Club is one of the easiest courses on Tour. From 2018 – 2022, all four winners finished with a score of -20 or less. Only six holes at the 2022 edition of the Barbasol Championship had a scoring average above par.
The four Par 3’s, No. 2, No. 9, No. 14, & No. 16, range between 187 yards and 209 yards. At the 2022 Barbasol Championship, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par (No. 2).
No. 2 ‘Triple Tears’, 187 yards, Par 3: “Multiple tees present different angles to a shallow, tiered green. Deep collection area to left. Important to be on proper tier to avoid a nasty putt.”
No. 9 ‘The Brink’, 205 yards, Par 3: “Tee shot over water to relatively big green, but could be dicey if wind is blowing and pin is in front. Entertaining hole in tournament play.”
No. 14 ‘Blackberry Hill’, 209 yards, Par 3: “Tee shot over a valley to a shallow green with deep bunker guarding front. Hit the middle of the green, get par and move on.”
No. 16 ‘Bullseye’, 191 yards, Par 3: “Another good par 3, this one downhill. Important to hit the right club, with deep bunker right and wind possibly a factor. Middle of the green always good.”
Four of the ten Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 1 is the shortest listed at 392 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 462 yards.
No. 1 ‘Pandora’s Box’, 392 yards, Par 4: “Not much trouble on this dogleg right. Bunker left shouldn’t come into play. Long hitters can go with 3-wood off the tee. Green slopes back right to front left.”
No. 3 ‘Hard Par’, 462 yards, Par 4: “Demanding hole, with fairway sloping right to left. Long tee ball needed to get to downslope. From there it’s an uphill, 140 to 150 approach. Tight lies from collection areas. Green tilts back right to front left.”
No. 17 ‘Picture Perfect’, 410 yards, Par 4: “Beautiful hole. Split fairway, but much better to play from upper left. Driver not required for long hitters. If tee shot gets hung up between fairways, awkward lie awaits. Back-to-front sloping green guarded by water and bunkers.”
No. 18 ‘Waterloo’, 429 yards, Par 4: “Tough hole from start to finish. Need to avoid bunkers guarding left side of fairway, but don’t block your tee shot – water borders right side. Small green requires accurate approach. Front pin position especially testy. Par is a really good score.”
The four Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 8, No. 11 & No. 15. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 5 ‘Great Crossings’, 543 yards, Par 5: “Terrific risk-reward hole. Long hitters can get a downhill roll to where it’s a mid-or short-iron second shot. Even those who lay up face a tough approach to a shallow green guarded by a creek in front and bunker back left.”
No. 8 ‘Water’s Edge’, 567 yards, Par 5: “Water on left running length of the hole, mounds on right but not penal. Those trying to get home in two can bail out right, although three bunkers come into play. Fairly small green also guarded by bunkers, with water to the left.”
No. 11 ‘Winding Way’, 573 yards, Par 5: “Off the tee, an uphill, slight dogleg left. Preferable drive gets you a flat lie for the second shot. Long hitters can get home in two. Better to be short than long because green has severe pitch from back to front.”
No. 15 ‘Hidden Treasure’, 516 yards, Par 5: “Relatively short but quirky hole, and very scoreable, especially out of the fairway. Approach can be awkward to a shallow, sloping green hidden by bunker and mounding. Don’t go long or could be OB.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Birdies or Better
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 (x2), 200 – 225 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 400, – 450 (x4), 450 – 500 (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 (x2), 550 – 600 (x2)
Proximity: 75 – 100 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Barbasol Championship. Only eleven of the world’s top two-hundred players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Taylor Pendrith (+1800) has some great course history at Keene Trace finishing T11 in 2021 and T13 in 2022. He’s coming off one of his best finishes of the season at the Rocket Mortage Classic finishing T14. Outside of that, he has only finished inside the top 20 three other times this season in his twenty-three starts.
Lucas Glover (+2200) will make his debut in the Barbasol Championship. He struggled earlier this season but is playing some of his best golf as of late. In his last three starts on Tour, he’s finished T20 at the RBC Canadian Open, missed the cut at the Travelers Championship, and T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Vincent Norrman (+2500) will make his debut in the Barbasol Championship. He’s coming off T24 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Norrman had a solid stretch from late April into early May finishing T9 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, T18 at the Mexico Open, and T8 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. However, after that he missed the cut in three of his next four events.
Peter Kuest (+2500) became a temporary member of the PGA Tour earlier this week after a two-week heater finishing T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T17 at the John Deere Classic. He’ll make his debut in the Barbasol Championship this week.
Akshay Bhatia (+2800) became a temporary member of the PGA Tour earlier this year after a runner-up finish at the Puerto Rico Open. Bhatia has been struggling as of late failing to finish inside the top 30 in each of his last six starts. He’ll make his debut in the Barbasol Championship this week.
Kevin Streelman (+3000) was the runner-up in last year’s Barbasol Championship. He’s missed the cut in two of his last three starts but before that finished T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Previous Winners in the Field (Keene Trace Golf Club):
Jim Herman (’19), Troy Merritt (’18)
Notable Withdraws:
Harrison Endycott, Marc Warren, Lukas Nemecz, Johnson Wagner, Jamie Donaldson, Nacho Elvira, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Erik van Rooyen, Troy Merritt
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
(All held at the Keene Trace Golf Club)
Barbasol Championship
Field Rating: 10.00
Field Rating: 17.00
Field Rating: 17.00
Field Rating: 11.00
2022
2021
2019
2018
Taylor Pendrith
T13
T11
Vincent Whaley
5
T26
Michael Gligic
T21
19
Jason Dufner
T27
T26
T18
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
(All held at the Keene Trace Golf Club)
Barbasol Championship
Field Rating: 10.00
Field Rating: 17.00
Field Rating: 17.00
Field Rating: 11.00
2022
2021
2019
2018
Wesley Bryan
MC
MC
Kevin Stadler
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
MC
MC
Brian Davis
MC
MC
T68
Omar Uresti
MC
MC
MC
WD
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Trey Mullinax (-25)
Price: 150-1
2021: Seamus Power (-21)
Price: 20-1
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Jim Herman (-26)
Price: 500-1
2018: Troy Merritt (-23)
Price: 55-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Trey Mullinax
MC – John Deere Classic (PGA)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
69 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T32 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2021: Seamus Power
T8 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
T8 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T19 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T19 – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
T9 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2019: Jim Herman
MC – John Deere Classic (PGA)
MC – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MDF – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
MC – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2018: Troy Merritt
T43 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
T17 – Quicken Loans National (PGA)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T12 – FedEx St. Jude Classic (PGA)
T53 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
Picks (Outrights):
Lucas Glover (+2000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Vincent Norman (+2000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Kevin Steelman (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Justin Lower (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.27 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Peter Kuest (+105) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Grayson Murray (+162) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.62 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Julien Guerrier (+110) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Barbasol Championship: 4.27 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
Congrats to all Sepp Straka backers last week. He was unbelievable on Sunday posting a 62 to win the John Deere Classic by two strokes over Alex Smalley. I liked our position heading into Sunday with Schenk and McCarthy both tied for second but neither had particularly great final rounds.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
This year the course will play differently than it did last year. At the 2022 edition of the Genesis Scottish Open, the Par was 71 and the yardage was listed at 7,293. However this year, the Par has been changed to 70 and the yardage has dropped to 7,237. This year, the 7th hole has been converted to a long Par 4 instead of a short Par 5.
Xander Schauffele will look to defend his title this week at the Renassaince Club. His ball-striking ability was on full display which helped make up for his fair putting. Despite having no wins this season, Xander enters the week in great form having finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last ten starts.
The Genesis Scottish Open is one of the only other Links Style courses that players will face this year. It’s a great way for players to have some confidence heading into Royal Liverpool which is a similar style course. The final three spots are also up for grabs for those who haven’t yet punched their ticket to the 151st Open Championship.
The past four editions of this event at The Renaissance Club have come down to the wire. Last year Xander Schauffele won by one stroke but the three previous editions held at this course came down to a playoff.
Given that this is a co-sanctioned event approximately 75 DP World Tour pros will compete, based on their position on the Race to Dubai standings. Rory McIlroy currently leads in the competition followed by Jon Rahm and Adrian Meronk.
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 13th, 2023 – July 16th, 2023
Location: North Berwick, Scotland, United Kingdom
Course: The Renaissance Club
Course Type: Ocean Links
Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,237 yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Fescue
Fairways: Fescue
Rough: Fescue 3″ – 5″
Bunkers: 83
Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 10 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,620,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
Historic Cut Line:
2022: +3
2021: -2
2019: -3
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Tom Doak (2008)
Renovations: N/A
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
St. Andrews (Old Course) – The 2022 Open Championship – RESULTS
Royal St. George’s – The 2021 Open Championship – RESULTS
Royal Portrush – The 2019 Open Championship – RESULTS
Royal Birkdale – The 2017 Open Championship – RESULTS
Designer Link (Tom Doak):
Memorial Park Golf Course – Tom Doak Renovation (2019) – Cadence Bank Houston Open
St. George’s Golf and Country Club – Tom Doak Renovation (2014) – 2022 Canadian Open
Comparable Location (North Berwick, Scotland):
St. Andrews (Old Course) – St Andrews, Scotland – The 2022 Open
Comparable Yardage (7,237 Yards):
TPC Southwind – 7,243 Yards – FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
This European Tour event debuted in 1972 as the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open held at Downfield Golf Club. One year later in 1973, the event was moved to the Old Course at St Andrews. Following that edition of the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open, TV rights could not be arranged so from 1974-1985 no tournament was not played.
In 1986, the event was brought back as the Bell’s Scottish Open and took place at Haggs Castle Golf Club.
Just a year later, the event was moved to Gleneagles where it was held until 1994.
From 1995 -1996 the event was held at Carnoustie and was renamed the Scottish Open.
In 1996 the event moved once more to Loch Lomond where it was played until 2010 under a variety of different names. The 2011 event was held at Castle Stuart Golf Links due to the financial difficulties being suffered by Loch Lomond. Castle Stuart Golf Links would also host the event for another two years.
From 2014-2018, the event bounced around to several different courses before finding its current home in 2019, the Renaissance Club.
In 2022, this event became co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and the title sponsor became Genesis.
Outside of playing host to the Scottish Open since 2019, the Renassaince Club has also hosted other notable tournaments including the 2017 Scottish Senior Open and the 2019-2020 Ladies Scottish Open.
72-Hole Record:
262, Bernd Wiesberger (2019)
18-Hole Record:
61, Bernd Wiesberger (Round 2, 2019)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Before the PGA Tour and DP World Tour hosting a joint event the Renaissance Club was a relatively easier course. From 2018 – 2021, three of the four winners finished with a score of -18 or less. However last year, the course was a bit more challenging due to the wind as Xander Schauffele only had a winning score of -7. Only five holes at the 2022 edition of the Genesis Scottish Open had a scoring average under par which included all three of the Par 5’s.
In terms of length, The Renaissance Club is longer than average measuring 7,237 yards. It ranks 18th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 16th of 46, with the average fairway width being 31.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 83 bunkers which ranks as the 15th most out of 46 courses.
The five Par 3’s, No. 6, No. 9, No. 12, No. 14, & No. 17, range between 147 yards and 218 yards. At the 2022 Scottish Open, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.
Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 5 is the shortest listed at 338 yards with the longest being No. 7, playing 505 yards.
The three Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 10, & No. 16. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Fescue)
Birdies or Better
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Genesis Scottish Open. Four of the world’s top-five players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+650) missed the cut in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. He’s been playing some great golf as of late having finished inside the top 5 in each of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. Since November, Scheffler has never finished worse than T12 in any event. During that span, he’s won twice including the WM Pheonix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship.
Rory McIlroy (+750) will make his debut in the Genesis Scottish Open this year. He won the CJ Cup in South Carolina to start his season but struggled a bit after that. However, he comes into this event in great form having finished inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.
Patrick Cantlay (+1200) finished tied for fourth in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. He has yet to win this season after winning twice in the 2021-22 season. Despite having no victories, he has twelve top-20 finishes in his sixteen starts on Tour this season.
Xander Schauffele (+1400) is the defending champion of the Genesis Scottish Open. He has yet to win this season but has not finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last ten starts on Tour. Xander had his best finish this season during that span which was a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Viktor Hovland (+1800) missed the cut in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. So far this season, he’s won twice including the Hero World Challenge and the Memorial Tournament. He’s coming off a T29 finish at the Travelers Championship which was his first finish outside the top 20 in his last six events.
Previous Winners in the Field (at The Renaissance Club):
Xander Schauffele (’22), Min Woo Lee (’21), Aaron Rai (’20)
Notable Withdraws:
Vincent Norman, Harry Higgs, George Coetzee, Paul Haley II, Mark Hubbard, MJ Daffue
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
(All held at The Renaissance Club)
Genesis Scottish Open
Abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Field Rating: 642.00
Field Rating: 424.00
Field Rating: 190.00
Field Rating: 309.00
2022
2021
2020
2019
Xander Schauffele
1
T10
Thomas Detry
T10
T2
T30
T43
Tyrrell Hatton
T24
T18
T14
Matthew Fitzpatrick
T6
T2
T42
T14
Tommy Fleetwood
T4
T26
2
Justin Thomas
MC
T8
T9
Lucas Herbert
MC
T4
T4
T62
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
(All held at The Renaissance Club)
Genesis Scottish Open
Abrdn Scottish Open
Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
Field Rating: 642.00
Field Rating: 424.00
Field Rating: 190.00
Field Rating: 309.00
2022
2021
2020
2019
Danny Willett
MC
MC
MC
Oliver Wilson
MC
MC
T69
Jimmy Walker
MC
MC
Thomas Bjorn
WD
MC
MC
WD
Maximillian Kieffer
T30
MC
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
Price: 20-1
2021: Min Woo Lee (-18)
Price: 200-1
2020: Aaron Rai (-11)
Price: 50-1
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22)
Price: 40-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Xander Schauffele
1 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T14 – U.S. Open (PGA)
T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (PGA)
T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2021: Min Woo Lee
T17 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
T42 – BMW International Open (EUR)
MC – Porsche European Open (EUR)
T52 – Made in Himmerland (EUR)
T21 – Betfred British Masters (EUR)
2020: Aaron Rai
2 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
T15 – ISPS HANDA UK Championship (EUR)
T44 – ISPS HANDA Wales Open (EUR)
T31 – Celtic Classic (EUR)
T44 – English Championship (EUR)
2019: Bernd Wiesberger
T2 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
T16 – BMW International Open (EUR)
76 – U.S. Open (PGA)
8 – Belgian Knockout (EUR)
1 – Made in Denmark (EUR)
Picks (Outrights):
Tyrrell Hatton (+1800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Rickie Fowler (+2000) – Caesars
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.22 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Fitzpatrick has played in this event all four times it’s been held at The Renaissance Club finishing T14, T42, T2, and T6. He had a great start to the season but dealt with a nick injury halfway through which hindered his game a bit. It looks like he’s returning to form as of late posting three top-20 finishes in his last four starts. His game also fits well for a Links-style golf course.
Min Woo Lee (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Min Woo Lee has been in terrific form finishing T15 (Betfred British Masters), T9 (Travelers Championship), and T5 (U.S. Open) in his last three starts. He won this event in 2021 (Abrdn Scottish Open) but missed the cut the following year. His main weakness was his putting in that event which has improved this season. Lee has gained strokes on the green in twelve of his last fourteen starts. His iron play has also been trending in the right direction as well gaining strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Based on his recent form and course history, I think he has a great shot of finishing inside the top 20.
Wyndham Clark (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Wyndham Clark has been on a heater these past few months winning the Wells Fargo Championship and following that victory up with another at Los Angeles Country Club. Last year in the Genesis Scottish Open he finished T16. He struggled on the greens but that issue appears to have been resolved as he’s gained strokes putting in seven on his last eight starts on Tour. Clark’s game appears to be firing on all cylinders as he heads to a course that he’s had previous success at.
Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Alex Smalley (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Smalley returns to The Renassaince Club where he finished tied for tenth in his debut here last year. He gained strokes in every category outside of putting where he lost 2.42 strokes. Smalley finished 159th on Tour in SG: Putting last year and has improved slightly currently ranking 141st in that category this season. However, he has gained strokes on the green in three of his last four starts and it’s been reflected in his finishes. In his last four events, he’s finished T2 (John Deere Classic), T47 (Rocket Mortage Classic, lost strokes putting), T9 (Travelers Championship), and T25 (RBC Canadian Open). His strong iron play should be an advantage on this course and I expect him to continue his solid recent form.
Aaron Rai (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Aaron Rai comes into this event in great form finishing T9 (Rocket Mortgage Classic), T24 (Travelers Championship), and T3 (RBC Canadian Open) in his last three starts on Tour. He won this event back in 2020 but has struggled in his two most recent appearances at The Renassaince Club finishing T35 (2021) and MC (2022). Rai has been great with his irons as of late which is encouraging heading into a golf course that requires precise ball striking.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Genesis Scottish Open: 6.22 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
It’s the last weekend at Belmont Park before Saratoga starts up next week. We’ll break down our best bets for a few of the graded-stakes races taking place today.
Ok, Bo Nichal is the next coming of the top UFC fighters and his price at -2800 pretty much shows that, but what is Val Woodburn at 7-0? Chop liver? Bo Nichal is a world class wrestler from Penn State who has three NCAA championships. He doesn’t sit there and stand with his opponent all day risking himself a KO. Now this aspect actually extends fights longer past the first round more often than not. This is Nichal’s 2nd actual UFC fight and 5th MMA fight overall. Has he went to the second round yet? No, but I expect that there is a chance of it with some nice plus money here for this fight to end in the second or the third round with Nichal on top. If we decide to play Nichal ending it in these two rounds, the blended odds on it are +438. I think that it is worth a shot here being that Bo is so green in the UFC as well as that Woodburn has went past the first round in four of his last five fights.
Bo Nichel to win 2nd round +650 – .5 stars Bo Nichel to win 3rd round +1100 – .5 stars
Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 6 is available for your listening pleasure.
I will discuss my under the radar juggernaut NFC selection. Then, we dive into an MLB series I’m eyeing for this weekend. As always, end it with “Reflect with Rocco” regarding bankroll management.
Would you like all my Premium Plays? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a very small amount daily. I’ve done very well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well.
We have a quick show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to go over some college and NFL sports betting websites that he likes to use during the football season. At the end of the show, Kiev @OBKiev gives you a FREE NFL EARLY PLAY for the 2023 season. There is no UFC 290 discussion, but Kiev’s plays will be released at TheOddsBreakers.com.Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Rickie Fowler wins the Rocket Mortgage Classic at 14-1! He had been trending towards a win this season so it was great to see him finally break through and capture his first victory in four years.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The John Deere Classic has been moved up on the PGA Tour schedule. While it’s played annually in July, it’s previously been the event before the Open Championship. It was the final chance for a player not already exempt, to earn entry into the Open if he finishes in the top five. Since 2008, the John Deere Classic had sponsored a charter flight that leaves the Quad Cities post-tournament and lands in Britain the following day. However this year, most players will already be overseas as the Genesis Scottish Open is now the event before the Open Championship.
This year’s event has a particularly weak field this year given its new position on the PGA Tour schedule. Only one of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field.
J.T. Poston will look to successfully defend his title this week. He captured his second career PGA Tour victory at TPC Deere Run last year having previously won the 2019 Wyndham Championship. Poston has been struggling as of late missing the cut in five of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. His best finish the season was tied for sixth at The American Express.
The John Deere Classic, then known as the Quad Cities Open began in 1971 as a “satellite event” for the PGA Tour. A year later, it became an official PGA Tour event.
From 1971 to 1974, the event was played at Crow Valley Country Club. Following that, it moved to Oakwood Country Club where it was held until 1999. At the turn of the century, TPC Deere Run became the host site.
History was made here back in 2013 when nineteen-year-old Jordan Spieth became the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931.
In 2021, Lucas Glover birdied five of his last seven holes to win the John Deere Classic. Before that, his last win on the PGA Tour was at the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2011. Glover became just the seventh player to win in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.
After the John Deere Classic wrapped up in 2021, the course underwent a major renovation. The 1.8 million dollar project involved new tee boxes (No. 1), the reconfiguration of numerous bunkers and, provided the course with a better drainage system.
Something else to note is that five of the last eleven winners of the John Deere Classic were first-time TOUR winners.
72-Hole Record:
257, Michael Kim (2018)
18-Hole Record:
59, Paul Goydos (1st Round, 2010)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Deere is one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. Three of the past four winners have finished with a score of -21 or less. Each of the past four editions of this event has had a scoring average below par. In 2022, only six holes had a scoring average over par which included three of the four Par 3’s.
In terms of length, Detroit Golf Club is average measuring 7,289 yards. It ranks 23rd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 9th of 46, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,550 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 76 bunkers which ranks as the 22nd most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 7, No. 12, & No. 16, range between 158 yards and 226 yards. At the 2022 John Deere Classic, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par (No. 16).
No. 3 ‘Stone House’, 186 yards, Par 3: “This uphill Par 3 will play much longer than it reads on the scorecard. A set of bunkers guard the right side, while a bent grass collection area is ready to grab the shots that go long and left. The green runs from front to back, making
club selection crucial to hitting the green in regulation.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.00.
No. 7 ‘Timber Ridge’, 226 yards, Par 3: “This is the longest of the 3 pars on the course, and the most picturesque. Into the normal prevailing wind, this hole will test the accuracy of even the best players. Carry it to the green or carry the bunker on the right and let the ball feed down to the green. You choose your plan of attack.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.125.
No. 12 ‘Master Stroke’, 215 yards, Par 3: “A long par 3 through a tree-lined fairway to a well-bunkered green. This is one of the bigger greens on the course… but don’t miss it, there is trouble all around it.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.029.
No. 16 ‘Mother Earth’, 158 yards, Par 3: “Most likely, the “Signature Hole.” This picturesque, short par 3 sits on a bluff 40 feet above the Rock River. It is guarded in front
by a deep ravine and to the right by a large bunker. To the left is the Rock River and all
the perils it commands. It may be short, but it is dangerous.” 2022 Scoring Average: 2.993.
Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 361 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 503 yards.
No. 9 ‘Howitzer’, 503 yards, Par 4: “The longest par 4 and one of the most testing holes on the course. A level landing area for your drive will leave you with a shot through the trees to a long green that has bunkers on both sides.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.208.
No. 14 ‘Deere Run’, 361 yards, Par 4: “This is the ultimate risk/reward hole. It is drivable but the perils are many. Go for it and miss left and you are in the “valley of sin.” A tightly-mowed area that will leave you with a blind shot to a small, well-protected green. Go long and you will be lost down a 60-foot bluff.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.743.
No. 18 ‘Conquistador’, 476 yards, Par 4: “A great finishing hole that will put a premium on driving accuracy. Hit it long and straight to avoid the fairway bunker on the left, but you must keep it on the left side of the fairway. From there, it is a long shot to a deep and narrow green that is guarded on the right by two large bunkers and on the left by a long and narrow pond.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.208.
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, No. 10, & No. 17. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 2 ‘Colonel Davenport’, 561 yards, Par 5: “A downhill tee shot to a fairway some 50 feet below makes this hole play shorter than its listed length. A good drive and it should be reachable in two. The entrance to the green is tight and is guarded by wetland bunkers
and a stand of trees. The smallish green was designed to make pinpoint accuracy a must.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.533.
No. 10 ‘Cor-Ten’, 596 yards, Par 5: “Not real tight on your first and second shots, but they better be long. The green is very small for a par 5 and there is no room for error on your third shot. Bunkers protect the left side while a pond protects the right.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.813.
No. 17 ‘Stadium’, 569 yards, Par 5: “Probably reachable in two for the longest hitters, but they will have to have a perfectly-placed tee shot to do it. The fairway is tight and tree-lined, and the green is guarded in front by bunkers. The green is elevated slightly with bent grass collection areas all around. Miss the green, and you will have a tough chip to the hole.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.615.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdies or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
Proximity: 100 – 125, 125 – 150 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s John Deere Classic. Only one of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Denny McCarthy (+1400) will make his fifth appearance in the John Deere Classic this week. He had his best finish last year at this event finishing tied for sixth. McCarthy has yet to win this season but comes into this event in great form finishing 2/ T20/ T7 in his last three starts on the PGA Tour.
Russell Henley (+1600) has finished inside the top 20 in eight of his last nine starts on the PGA Tour. He also won earlier this season at the World Wide Technology Championship. In his last two appearances at TPC Deere Run, Henley has finished 2nd and tied for 11th.
Cameron Young (+1600) will make his debut at the John Deere Classic this week. He started off the season strong with a couple of runner-up finishes but has been in poor form as of late. In his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, he has missed the cut twice and has not finished better than T32. His last finish inside the top 10 was back at the Masters in April.
Ludvig Alberg (+2200) has finished T25/ T24/ T40 through his first three weeks as a PGA TOUR member. At both the RBC Canadian Open (his first start as a pro) and the Travelers Championship, Aberg finished inside the top 25. Through 36 holes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he was just a shot back of the lead.
Adam Hadwin (+2200) missed the cut at the John Deere Classic last year but finished T8 in 2016 and T18 in 2015. He’s coming off a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Previous Winners in the Field:
J.T. Poston (’22), Lucas Glover (’21), Dylan Frittelli (’19), Michael Kim (’18), Ryan Moore (’16), Zach Johnson (’12), Jonathan Byrd (’07), Sean O’Hair (’05)
Notable Withdraws:
Webb Simpson, Charley Hoffman, Vincent Norman, C.T. Pan, Brandon Wu
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Russell Henley
T11
2
Patton Kizzire
T16
T11
T30
T25
Adam Svensson
T24
T18
Seamus Power
T8
T61
T16
T25
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
David Lingmerth
MC
MC
MC
T72
Ryan Armour
MC
MC
MC
MC
T60
Joseph Bramlett
MC
MC
Ryan Brehm
MC
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
T63
MC
MC
D.A. Points
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Harry Higgs
MC
MC
Jonas Blixt
MC
MC
T62
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
Price: 50-1
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
Price: 55-1
2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
Price: 90-1
2018: Michael Kim (-27)
Price: 300-1
2017: Bryson Dechambeau (-18)
Price: 55-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts on PGA Tour):
2022: J.T. Poston
T2 – Travelers Championship
MC – RBC Canadian Open
T37 – the Memorial Tournament
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge
T9 – Wells Fargo Championship
2021: Lucas Glover
T41 – Rocket Mortgage Classic
MC – Palmetto Championship
T37 – the Memorial Tournament
T8 – Charles Schwab Challenge
MC – Wells Fargo Championship
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Dylan Frittelli
T46 – 3M Open
T46 – Rocket Mortgage Classic
MC – Travelers Championship
59 – RBC Canadian Open
MC – PGA Championship
2018: Michael Kim
MC – A Military Tribute
MC – Quicken Loans National
MC – Travelers Championship
T18 – FedEx St Jude Championship
MC – AT&T Byron Nelson
2017: Bryson Dechambeau
T14 – The Greenbrier Classic
T17 – Quicken Loans National
T26 – Travelers Championship
MC – U.S. Open
MC – FedEx St Jude Championship
Picks (Outrights):
Denny McCarthy (+1600) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Adam Schenk (+3100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units
Doug Ghim (+6000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Chez Reavie (+6500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.13 to win 8.45 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.93 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Emiliano Grillo (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Eric Cole (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Stephan Jaegar (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Callum Tarren (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the John Deere Classic: 4.93 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MAY 18: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels hits a home run during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 18, 2021 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Angels vs Padres -135 O/U 7.5
This will be a quick cap. This one isn’t hard to figure out. Shohei Ohtani is a beast boasting a FIP of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.04. Musgrove is having a decent year at a 3.8 FIP but he is facing a team that is number four in weighted runs created. The Dads are number 19 in that department. Both bullpens are pretty equal in ERA and FIP. Take the MVP. Happy independence day!
AFC West – The AFC West was supposed to be the best in football before the 2022 season got started, but shorty after, we found that the Broncos, as we predicted, had a ton of problems. The Raiders…. were still the Raiders. I guess some things never change. One thing that certainly hasn’t changed is the top of this division with the Mahomes to Kelce connection. This could go down in the legendary books someday with Montana to Rice. The Chargers should be a good team if somehow they could get out of their own way. Denver’s expectations should be more realistic, and the Raiders will have the pressure of following the Las Vegas Knights path to a championship. The AFC West plays the NFC North which I would call pretty fortunate, and the AFC East which should be rough. Let’s see how it’s looking for the boys out west!
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Jacksonville, vs Philadelphia, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: T Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Andrew Wylie, S Juan Thornhill, DE Charles Omenihu, DT Khalen Saunders, DE Frank Clark, WR Mecole Hardman, DE Carlos Dunlap
Key additions: RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Donavan Smith, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, G Nick Allegretti, QB Blain Gabbert
Key draft picks: Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah, WR Rashee Rice, T Wanya Morris
Summary: When you are a super bowl champion and you pay your quarterback, you lose a lot of players to free agency. Now is that a bad thing for the Chiefs? Maybe somewhat, but I can certainly attest that you can put a bunch of mediocre guys on the Chiefs with only Mahomes and Kelce, and this team will be one of the best in the league. it looks like a lot of teams decided to pay some former Chiefs players this year in free agency. Whether teams should flock to guys on super bowl rosters is very debatable for another time, but now let’s see what’s going on for 2023. The skill positions really shouldn’t miss a beat with guys like Kadarius Tony and MVS at the receiver positions. The offensive line will be reworked which could be a bit rough in the beginning of the season, similar to what we saw last year with the Bengals. The defensive front looks pretty healthy with Chris Jones stuffing up the middle to allow LB Nick Bolton freed up to make some tackles. The Chiefs defense was just very average last year and were one of the worst in the Red Zone. Now average actually means below average when your offense is so great due to the fact that the primary formation on defense was expecting pass and the double-wide prevent. It would be interesting to see how this defense really performs if the Chiefs are not putting up some points. Now this is a very very big if because the Chiefs didn’t lose a game by more than four points all last season. I think that this team should be the tops of the division, but I also think they would be fine to just make the playoffs if all goes bad being that this is a honeymoon type of year.
My Number: 9.51
Action Under 11.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 4.75
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2022 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.42
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Tennessee, vs Dallas, vs Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses – G Matt Feiler, LB Troy Reeder, ILB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan
Key additions: OC Kellen Moore, ILB Eric Kendricks, DT Nick Williams,
Key draft picks: WR Quentin Johnson, Edge Tuli Tuipulotu, LB Daiyan Henley, WR Derius Davis, QB Max Duggan
Summary: This Chargers team is very hard to figure out. If you remember back in 2021, head coach Brandon Staley was very aggressive and it was sometimes too much at the wrong times. For 2022 season, Staley wasn’t aggressive enough and it showed during that playoff 2nd half debacle against the Jaguars. The Bolts have a ton of talent, yet also make bunch of boneheaded mistakes, and I am not even sure new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will make much of a better impact being that Moore has also made some strange play-calling mistakes back in Dallas. I also wonder why this team drafted a bunch of TCU wide receivers when instead their biggest weakness was against the run. The Bolts also grabbed Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan late in the draft. Maybe they are closet Frog fans, but I guess they could have done worse. On offense, this team should still be solid as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t pull any more contract shenanigans. The defense is what really worries me ranking 27th in opponent rushing yards and 29th in opponent rush EPA. Going with wide receivers rather than three techniques and linebackers in the draft is a for sure head scratcher. This team over-achieved greatly last year, and I think that they could regress due to bone headed coaching and I am not too optimistic on this team, but let’s see if Brandon Staley has learned from his huge game managing mistakes. For the time being, I am taking the under in their win totals.
My Number: 8.21 wins
Action – Play the under
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 1.25
3.Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 8.5
2022 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.63
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Washington, vs Cleveland, @Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Nathanial Hackett, DT Dre’Mont Jones, T Calvin Anderson, LB Jake Martin, RB Mike Boone, DE DeShawn Williams, CB Ronald Darby, G Tom Compton
Key additions: Coach Sean Payton, OC Joe Lombardi, DC Vance Joseph, RT Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers, DE Zach Allen, QB Jared Stidham, RB Samaje Perine, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Temon Smith, DE Frank Clark and a ton of dudes
Key draft picks: WR Marvin Mims, LB Drew Sanders, CB Riley Moss, C Alex Forsyth
Summary: The 2022 Denver Broncos may have then the most disappointing and over-hyped football team from last year with apologies to the Colts. They only scored over 20 points five different times last season. Sean Payton moves in to take over an already amazing defense with a lot of work to do on offense. Former Saints offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes in with some work to do, but the big question is if he can revive team leader and diva Russell Wilson. The good news is that he has a lot of talent to work with. I imagine that this offense will go back to it’s Sean Payton type roots of pounding the football with guys like Javante Williams when he comes back fully healthy. Javante may not start right away and will have to be eased back into the starting lineup, while newly acquired Samaje Perine who can be a bruiser when needed. We should see plenty of check downs as well to the running back, and let’s hope Wilson is able to get the ball past those massive defensive ends with their hands up in the air. I also hope that quarterback coach Davis Webb is able to re-instill some confidence in Wilson utilizing his old scrambling abilities. The defense shouldn’t miss a beat this year and they might even get better with defensive coordinator and former Broncos Coach Vance Joseph back in the Mile high city. Denver’s defense was a little weak last year against the run, but they are betting that newly acquired defensive ends Frank Clark and Zach Allen can come into help stop some of that. Denver was the most injured team of 2022, so I expect some positive regression in that department.
My number: 8.68
Action – Lean over
Denver Broncos Power Rating: -2
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 8.32
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Pittsburgh, vs New York Giants, @ Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Derek Carr, TE Darrin Waller, TE Forster Moreau, QB Jarrett Stidham, CB Rock Ya-sin, DT Andrew Billings, ILB Denzel Perryman, DE Clelin Ferrell, CB Anthony Averett
Key additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jacobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, LB Robert Spillane, CB Brandon Facyson, QB Brian Hoyer, TE Austin Hooper and a bunch of second rate dudes.
Key draft picks: Edge Tyree Wilson, TE Michael Mayer, DL Bryon Young, WR Tre Tucker, QB Aidan O’Connell
Summary: The Las Vegas Raiders went from the second most over-achieving team of 2021 to the most under-achieving team for 2022. Their Pythagorean win total is 8.32 compared to their six actual wins. Being in the Chiefs division certainly doesn’t help, but now the pressure should be on Josh McDaniels to get this team to the playoffs. Let’s talk about the offense. There is no more of an example of robbing Peter to pay Paul than getting rid of Derek Carr and bringing on Jimmy G. Both quarterbacks have similar skills, but I also have to wonder if Jimmy G just benefitted from being in great systems over the years, more than he is a good quarterback. If Kyle Shanahan doesn’t want him, then something seems wrong. Earlier this year, the Raiders traded stud TE Darren Waller just to draft another stud in Michael Mayer. They picked up former Patriot Jacoby Meyers to compliment Devonte Adams while keeping Hunter Renfrow in the slot. The Raiders offensive line ranks number twelve in Lineups. Can Josh McDaniels put it all together this year? I tend to think not. He is a good play caller, but not a great coach. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders were brutal against the pass ranking 31st in opponent drop-back EPA. They drafter Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech to try and speed up that pass rush that ranked 30th in sacks. That was a good move at least. They also signed guys like Marcus Epps and Brandon Facyson to help the secondary. Their defensive line should be average at best while their linebacking crew remains very untested. I am not sure if I trust DC Patrick Graham all that much this year, and I also think that there will be a lot of wait and see for this Raiders team. I have the Raiders a little below average until they can prove me wrong. Their hard schedule could be their undoing for the 2023 season.
My Number: 6.66 wins
Action – No Play
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -1.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
