I have been waiting for this spot to bet against Zac Gallen and the day has arrived! His home/away splits are drastically different, his opponent’s BA compared to his xBA is a drastic jump as well. His ERA in 2023 is 3.02 overall, but 5.08 on the road with a WHIP of 1.38. Anthony Rendon made his way back into the lineup this past Friday, while only going 1/7 from the plate he did smash a home run last night. Gallen has never faced Ohtani or Trout, so I believe that will be a challenge within itself. Zac’s xSLG% is .404 which is a career high for him.
The Halos counter with Reid Detmers who was electric in the month of June and looks to carry this form into the All-Star break. In his last 4 starts of June he squared off versus the Cubs, Dodgers, White Sox and Rangers lineups, no slouches in there. Giving up a total of 3 ER’s, 2 via the long ball, while pitching into the 6th or further in all 4 and struck out 8 or more batters in all 4. Also take note the D’backs are hitting .191 vs lefties in their last 10. Let’s back the Angels today with a nice unit upgrade to end the week!
Season 1, Podcast 5 of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission is available for your listening pleasure.
I will go over future bet #2 for the upcoming NFL season, then we will dive into an MLB series I’m eyeing for this weekend. As always, end it with “Reflect with Rocco.”
If you would like all my Premium Plays for just baseball, or every sport? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a very small amount daily. I’ve done very well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well.
The Yankees just got off their series with the A’s and that is not exactly a team who can test anybody. Luis Severino takes the helm with a 5.25 ERA and a 5.8 FIP for the Bronx Bombers. Not exactly a good situation. The Cardinals are fighting to get back in the hunt with Matthew Liberatore pitching who has a 5.6 ERA and 4.78 FIP. Close to a wash maybe, but we can’t forget that Rizzo just got hurt with the Yankees and Aaron Judge is still injured on the shelf. Saint Louis’s bullpen isn’t bad ranking 12th in the league. The Cardinals rank 9th in wRC+ while the Yankees rank 21st. I will take Saint Louis here at the low price.
We have a great show for you today! Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports comes on to break down some 2023 College Football! First, Kiev talks about some baseball and a system that has been hitting quite well throughout the year. Next, Brad comes on and the guys get right into the season overview! Which teams are new to FBS? What are the rule changes? How will those changes impact the lines? Then, Brad and Kiev talk about some over-achievers and under-achievers for the power five conferences as well as give out some plays! Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN with some FREE PLAYS! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Congrats to all Keegan Bradley backers at last week’s Travelers Championship. He now has two wins this season and is up to 7th in the Team USA Ryder Cup qualification standings.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Tony Finau is the defending champion of this event but comes into the Rocket Mortgage in poor form. To be fair, he has won two events this season the Cadence Bank Houston Open & the Mexico Open. However, last year he had won the 3M Open the week before winning the Rocket Mortgage so it’ll be interesting to see how one of the current favorites fairs this week.
Rickie Fowler continues his comeback tour but is still looking for his first win since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. He let the U.S. Open through three rounds but ultimately fell short on Sunday. He’s in great form and has some decent course history here so maybe he can finally break through this week.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic has been moved up in this year’s PGA schedule. Last year, it took place towards the end of July but this year, it has been moved up roughly a month. In doing so it has garnered its strongest field yet making this week more exciting.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic was founded in 2019 replacing the Quicken Loans National. It’s been held at Detriot Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan every year. Last year, the Rocket Mortgage Classic was the second last event on the FedExCup Regular Season schedule. However, this year it has been moved up in the schedule which has attracted a much stronger field than in previous editions.
Detroit Golf Club was founded in 1899 and originally only had six holes. In 1900, the club added three additional holes making it a 9-hole course. Thirteen years later, Donal Ross was brought in to design two 18-hole courses. Before playing host to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the club had only hosted two prior major tournaments including the 1911 Western Amateur and 1992 U.S Mid-Amateur.
72-Hole Record:
262, Tony Finau (2022)
18-Hole Record:
63, Nate Lashley (2019, first round), J.T. Poston (2019, second round), Davis Thompson (2021, first round), Cameron Young (2022, second round), Tom Kim (2022, fourth round)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Rocket Mortgage Classic utilizes 17 holes from the North Course and one hole from the South Course. Holes No. 8 and 9 of the North Course will severe as the first two holes of this week’s event. The lone hole from the South Course (No. 1) will play as the third hole. From there, holes 2-7 will play as No. 4-9. The traditional back nine for the North Course will play as holes 10-18.
Vandals significantly damaged the greens on Nos. 11 and 12 in April, but the PGA TOUR’s agronomy department along with the storied Oakmont Country Club stepped in to help. Some sod was brought in from Oakmont to help with the repairs.
Detroit Golf Club is one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. Each of the past four editions of this event has had a scoring average below par. In 2022, only seven holes had a scoring average over par which included three of the four Par 3’s.
In terms of length, Detroit Golf Club is average measuring 7,370 yards. It ranks 23rd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 34.6 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,150 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 87 bunkers which ranks as the 12th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 5, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 160 yards and 233 yards. At the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par (No. 5).
No. 5, 167 yards, Par 3: “This uphill hole plays slightly longer than the yardage. A back hole location can produce difficult putting conditions as a spine runs through that area of the green. This hole is recreated on the Ross Memorial course at Boyne Highlands in Harbor Springs, Michigan.”
No. 11, 233 yards, Par 3: “Birdies are hard to come by on the longest of the four par three holes on the north. Guarded by two bunkers, this green looks relatively simple from the tee. However, closer inspection will reveal a front bowl and several places to hide the hole location.”
Four of the ten Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 372 yards with the longest being No. 12, playing 489 yards.
No. 8, 372 yards, Par 4: “Driver may not be the play off of the tee for everyone. Several fairway bunkers and out-of-bound left may produce a layup tee ball short of any trouble. The second short normally play about a half of club more as the green is slightly uphill.”
No. 12, 489 yards, Par 4: “Par is a good score on this long and difficult par four. A tee shot that avoids the trees left and a fairway bunker in the driving zone on the right side will set the player up with a long to mid iron into the elevated green. A false front, on the left side of the green complex, will cause an approach shot coming up short to roll away. The Club’s original clubhouse was built behind and left of this green.”
No. 18, 455 yards, Par 4: “This great par four finishing hole has a diagonal penalty area that will dictate strategy from tee to green. With fairway bunkers left and right, a tee shot in the fairway will be most important, leaving long to mid-iron into the green. However, once on the green, the fun has just begun. Players will be faced with possibly the most difficult putting surface on the course. The 1992 U.S.G.A. Mid-AmateurChampionship was decided by a four-putt on this green.”
The four Par 5’s are No. 4, No. 7, No. 14, & No. 17. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 4, 635 yards, Par 5: “Long hitters will have a go at it in hopes of reaching this green in two on this long, narrow par five. Players not able to reach the green in two will need to avoid a left-hand side cross bunker inside 100 yards. An accurate approach shot to the small, contoured green is required in hopes of securing a birdie.”
No. 17, 577 yards, Par 5: “Bunker placement throughout this hole requires sound strategy on the longest of the four par fives on the North. A generous opening into the green will allow balls to be run onto this undulating putting surface.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6-8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Birdies or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 (x4)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
Proximity: 75 – 100 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Nine of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Tony Finau (+1200) is the defending champion of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In his only other appearance at this event, he finished T53 in 2020. Finau has two victories this season winning the Cadence Bank Houston Open and Mexico Open. He’s been in poor form as of late finishing T45 (Travelers Championship), T32 (U.S. Open), missing the cut in the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T72 (PGA Championship).
Rickie Fowler (+1400) has revitalized his career this season but has not won since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. He has seven top-10 finishes this year, the most he’s had on TOUR in one season since 2016-17. In his last four events, his worst finish was tied for 13th which was last week at the Travelers Championship. He’s played in this event four times making the cut in three of those appearances.
Justin Thomas (+1600) has struggled this season failing to win a single event. His putting has held him back and he’s lost strokes on the green in seven of his last nine starts. Last week at the Travelers he appeared to have found his game finishing tied for 9th. However, before that, he missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and the Memorial Tournament. This will be the first time that he’s competed at Detroit Golf Club.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) withdrew from the Rocket Mortgage Classic before the second round in 2021 after testing positive for COVID-19. He did not play in this event last year but finished T21 in 2020 and T13 in 2019. Matsuyama has yet to win this year but has been in better form as of late. In his last nine starts on the PGA Tour, he has made every cut and has not finished worse than T32 (U.S. Open). His putting has been the main aspect of his game holding him back and he’s lost strokes on the green in five of his last eight starts.
Max Homa (+1800) has already won twice on the PGA Tour (Fortinent Championship & Farmers Insurance Open) but both of those victories came earlier in the season. He’s been struggling as of late missing the cut in his last two starts. This will be his fourth appearance at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he’s finished T24, T25, and T42 in his three prior appearances here.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Tony Finau (’22), Cam Davis (’21), Nate Lashley (’19)
Notable Withdraws:
Andrew Putnam (Undisclosed), Patrick Rodgers (Undisclosed), Hayden Buckley (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
2022
2021
2020
2019
Matt Wallace
T10
T12
Troy Merritt
T14
T2
T8
MC
Chris Kirk
T17
T12
T21
J.J. Spaun
T8
T32
T30
T13
Tony Finau
1
T53
Lanto Griffin
T25
T21
Henrik Norlander
T30
T38
T12
Max Homa
T24
T25
T42
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
2022
2021
2020
2019
Brian Harman
MC
MC
Martin Laird
MC
MC
Chez Reavie
MC
MC
Robby Shelton IV
MC
MC
Ryan Moore
MC
MC
Joseph Bramlett
MC
MC
MC
Kelly Kraft
MC
MC
Satoshi Kokaira
MC
MC
MC
Adam Long
MC
MC
William Gordon
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
MC
MC
MC
MC
C.T. Pan
MC
MC
James Hahn
MC
MC
MC
Ben Taylor
MC
MC
Scott Piercy
MC
MC
Justin Suh
MC
MC
Jason Dufner
MC
MC
MC
Kramer Hickok
MC
T58
MC
MC
Robert Streb
MC
T38
MC
MC
Sam Ryder
T24
MC
MC
MC
Kevin Tway
MC
T14
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Tony Finau (-26)
Price: 14-1
2021: Cam Davis (-18)
Price: 150-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
Price: 7-1
2019: Nate Lashley (-25)
Price: 250-1
Picks (Outrights):
Rickie Fowler (+1400) – PointsBet
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Byeong-Hun An (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Alex Smalley (+5500) – PointsBet
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Thomas Detry (+8000) – BetRivers
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Justin Suh (+8000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.09 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sungjae Im (+115) – DraftKings/ Pointsbet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Ludvig Aberg (+230) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Austin Eckroat (+125) -DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 30: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Luke List (+150) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Rocket Mortgage Classic: 5.09 Units
Late Addition Tournament Matchups:
Byeong Huh An (-130) vs Mark Hubbard
Alex Smalley (-120) vs Chrustiaan Bezuidenhout
Smalley gained strokes in every category at the Travelers last week (comp course), his distance and accuracy also improved (good drives gained). He struggles around the green but that doesn’t matter given he’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last six events. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six. His putting is sub-par but gained stokes on this green and comp greens in the past. Last year he finished T16 coming into this event in much worse form.
Bez is coming off a MC at the Travelers and T38 at the Memorial. He’s struggled off the tee which is crucial this week losing strokes in three of his last five events. His approach game has also been on a decline during that period as well. He did finish T2 last year here but his putting was much better than it is this year.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
This should be a good game coming off a disappointing performance from the Mets yesterday only scoring 1 run. The good news for New York is that Julio Teheran is pitching for the crew who hasn’t really been tested yet over 35 innings with a low ERA of 1.53 yet a FIP of 3.92. In 2018 and 2019 before injury, Julio’s FIP was around the high 4s. On the Mets side of things, David Peterson takes the helm who has had a very rough start to the season over 39 innings with an 8.08 ERA and a 4.78 FIP. Both Bullpens rank 27th and 28th for the year in FIP which looks good for runs. Neither team has been all that great hitting the ball, but both teams have gotten healthier. The wind is blowing out at about 7-8 MPH. I expect some runs this game.
The AFC East – Was a stronger division than it really looked last year. I feel like some bad luck really set in for some of these teams. The Bills were once again the power house that struggled to finish games, while not being able to produce a good game plan in the post season. The Jets had pretty much everything except a quarterback, the Dolphins lost their quarterback and had no backup, while the Patriots hired a bone-head for an offensive coordinator. I also do not think that three of these teams had good off-seasons, which you will see in my previews. The AFC East plays the NFC East and the AFC West this season. This is a rough schedule in my opinion, and the only thing that is nice is the lighter travel. Both the NFC East and the AFC East have high floors and high ceilings. Let’s take a closer look.
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Jacksonville, vs Tampa, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, QB Case Keenum, RB Devin Singletary, G Roger Saffold
Key additions: G Conner McGovern, WR Deonte Harty, OLB Leonard Floyd, DE Poona Ford, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, QB Kyle Allen.
Key Draft Picks: TE Dalton Kincaid, G O’Cyrus Torrence, LB Dorian Williams
Summary: The Bills once again missed their window of opportunity last year in the playoffs during a snowy day against the Bengals in Buffalo. Now one would think that snow should actually help a northern team like the Buffalo Bills, but the sharper people last season knew that it was actually advantage Cincinnati. This is a problem. The Bills are more of a passing offense that utilizes Josh Allen’s scrambling abilities to his best, while running the ball more sparingly to keep defenses honest. They did not have a big back to break through some of the larger defensive fronts in the AFC. They also just let their top running back Devon Singletary go to Houston. This type of focus away from the run game does not bode well for bad weather teams. Now the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid to play a hybrid tight end/slot position in this offense. As you can see, they really care about finesse. I really do not like the downgrade last year at offensive coordinator from Brian Dabol to Ken Dorsey. I also feel that the Bills took a step back on defense, more specifically with their pass rush only ranking in the middle of the pack in pressure rate and sacks. The most glaring loss on defense was their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears. Now maybe Tulane draft pick Dorian Williams becomes a super-star, but Edmonds was one of the best linebackers in the league, and his leadership may be missed here. Finally, the Bills have to deal with an improved division along with a first place schedule. If Josh Allen gets hurt in any way, I do not believe that Kyle Allen is an adequate backup to run this heavy pass offense with quarterback designed runs. I also think that Diggs, while a special talent, is starting to creep up in age along with Vonn Miller and AJ Klein.
My Number: 10.22
Action– Lean Under
Power Rating: 4.75
2. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:9.5 juiced to the over -130
Pythagorean Wins: 7
2022 Wins: 8.31
Schedule: Medium – vs Atlanta, vs Houston, @ Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DE Nathan Shepard, DT Sheldon Rankings, G Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, G Dan Feeney, RT George Fant, LB Kwon Alexander
Key additions: QB Aaron Rogers, OC Nathanial Hackett, WR Allen Lazard, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Quinton Jefferson, WR Randall Cobb, DT Al Woods, RB Breece Hall is back from injury.
Whom they drafted: Edge Will McDonald, C Joe Tippmann, T Carter Warren, RB Israel Abanikanda
Summary: There is a new sheriff in town. Broadway Joe even offered him his jersey number to continue at number 12! Of course Rogers declined, but let’s hope that for Jets fans, this becomes the best move in the NFL for the 2023 season. Looking at the numbers from last year, the Jets were a much better team than their record showed. NY under-achieved by 1.31 wins from their Pythagorean win total. hey ranked number six in defensive EPA while they had a good running game before Breece Hall got hurt for the season. It doesn’t take football coach to know that this team was greatly missing a quarterback. As much as I disliked Aaron Rogers as a Bears fan, one has to admit that this team made a move to attempt to win a championship and Rogers still has something still left in the tank. I honestly think that he was burned out in Green Bay due to front office issues over the past three seasons or so. Has Rogers faltered in the playoffs? Yes, and he certainly has some Lebron James in him, but maybe this year is the one where he can prove the doubters wrong. This offseason, the Jets did have to shed some guys but not nearly as much as other teams with less rookie deals. The Jets will have a new offense with Nathaniel Hackett coming in as offensive coordinator. My only concern is that he wasn’t a good play caller in Denver, but maybe with Rogers, there will be more comfort in this very important aspect to running the offense. This is why we see many guys come in from Green Bay. I hate to side with the public narrative on this one, but I could see the Jets winning this division more than the Buffalo Bills. This team has a massive +12 net games of rest ranking number 1 in the league.
My Number: 10.66
Action –Jets to win division +270
New York Jets Power Rating: 3.25
3.Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total:9.5 juiced to the under -120
Pythagorean Wins: 8.82
2022 Wins: 9
Schedule: Hard – vs Carolina, vs Tennessee, @ Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: OLB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, CB Byron Jones, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Engram, LT Eric Fisher
Key additions: LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Geeney, T Isaiah Wynn, S Deshon Elliot and a bunch of lower level dudes.
Whom they drafted: CB Cam Smith from South Carolina and that is really about it.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins at nine wins last year unfortunately under-achieved due to the injury woes of QB Tua Tagovailoa. This poor quarterback suffered a bunch of concussions and I felt that he was just one away from retirement. Think about what I said right there. Now that the Miami Dolphins got their back up in….. Wait….. Mike White? So you are telling me that you spent all of that money on players just to have Mike White and Skyler Thompson as backup plans? This Miami team has really dropped the ball here. They were not active in the draft at all being that they had only few picks to play with, but I thought that there were a couple of quarterbacks out there like Jake Haener and even Stetson Bennet that could have filled the void if/when poor Tua suffers his next concussion. I am absolutely blown away that this team has ignored such an important factor when they have so much talent to compete in the AFC South. The defensive side wasn’t pretty last year when the blitz didn’t work out. They finished the year ranking 22nd in defensive EPA per play. Seventh in opponent rush EPA was good, but 26th in opponent pass EPA won’t help vs a much improved AFC East. The Dolphins picked up a ton of guys in free agency, but most of them are second rate and something you do not see much of on championship teams. The schedule is going from easy to hard this year. I have to go under the Dolphins win total and assume that Tua will not be healthy for the full 2023 NFL Season.
My Number: 8.41
Summary: Under 9.5 – 1 star
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 2.75
4. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total:7.5 juiced to the under -125
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.59
Schedule: Hard – vs New Orleans, vs Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: WR Jacoby Meyers, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith, S Devin McCourty
Key additions: OC Bill O’Brien, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Alvin Anderson, LB Chris Board, T Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki and a bunch of dudes
Key Draft Picks: CB Christian Gonzales, Edge Keion White, S Marte Mapu, C Jake Andrews and a bunch of Patriot type hopes.
Summary: The Patriots were once thought of as the smartest team in football until they let former coach Matt Patricia, who was known for defense, attempt to run the offense for 2022. I mean, I can’t even fathom a worse decision coming from this organization. There also was a very early quarterback controversy with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe that they failed to address which really hurt the confidence of their young Alabama quarterback. Just watching Jones on the sidelines yell at Patricia all game long made for some amazing drama. Now the big question is, did the patriots really change all that much from last year? Not really. Lots of robbing Peter to pay Paul happened in the offseason in free agency . This offense last year ranked 24th in EPA per play with a defense that ranked 3rd. Now this was on an easy schedule. The Patriots were average at best. Now that the Patriots have themselves slotted the HARDEST schedule in the league from a Vegas win total perspective, I just cannot imagine that new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will be making a big splash having to play the NFC East and the AFC West. My number is 7.3 wins, so I agree with the market here.
My Number: 7.3 wins
Summary: No Play
New England Patriots Power Rating: 0
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
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Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria -350 O/U 2.5 juiced to the under -240
This should be a great fight and a great event in Jacksonville Florida. It starts early so get your bets in early! They say the numbers tell the story, so if that is true, then there is only one way to attack this fight. Josh Emmett is a striker and a very solid fighter in the featherweight division. He has been around a long time at 38 years old, 18-3, and has won against some pretty big names like Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. Emmett also has a few head scratching losses vs Jeremy Stephens and Desmond Green. I put him at a solid tier 2 fighter right now in my rankings. His opponent Ilia Topuria is a hungry beast who is undefeated at the age of 26 at 13-0. Ilia has the amazing fight skills combining Greco Roman wrestling with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Back to the numbers. It certainly is interesting to see the 5th ranked fighter in Emmett being a dog of +290 against the 9th ranked fighter in Topuria. The numbers on the fight starts round three is all the way to +190, while Ilia is the massive favorite here at -340. Both of Emmett’s losses over the past five years were in the 2nd round. 12 out of Ilia’s 13 fights have ended before the 3rd round. There is an obvious way of attacking this fight if you do not want to lay juice. Ilia is a firecracker and will try and end this early. The number say 1st or 2nd round so let’s combine our plays for some + money at blended odds of +131.
Ilia Topuria wins in 1st round +175 – 1 star Ilia Topuria wins in 2nd round +350 – 1 star
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Braves vs Reds +127 O/U 11.5
This total says that this should be another great game. Last night, the Reds got the win 11-10 at home vs the Braves. It isn’t so simple for them today as Graham Ashcraft starts today for the Reds roughing out a 6.78 ERA and a 5.1 FIP. Jared Shuster (not related to Juju Smith-Shuster) takes the mound for the Braves who is also below average, but a better ERA of 4.57 and FIP of 4.46. The Brave’s Bullpen ranks 4th in the league in FIP while the Reds are 21st, although the Braves do have some injuries to some RPs. The Braves rank 3rd in wRC+ while the Reds are 20th respectively. The Reds are very fortunate to be in 1st place with a negative run differential of -13 in a very week division. Atlanta’s run differential is +105. I am going to take the Braves here with the low number.
