We have arrived at the midway point of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
AFC South
2022 Standings
Jacksonville 9-8/ Tennessee 7-10/ Indianapolis 4-12-1/ Houston 3-13-1
Jacksonville – The Jags chose to build through the draft due to financial constraints from last off-season as they only added two players with existing NFL talent prior to camp. The big one and potentially game-breaking acquisition is Calvin Ridley who they got at the deadline in 2022. The huge 13 pick draft class included top tackle selection Anton Harrison who will step in for departed RT Jawaan Taylor. The rest of the O-Line will have some flux as starting LT Cam Robinson is facing a suspension of some time. This team should still improve offensively with Trevor Lawrence getting a second full season of Doug Pederson tutelage. The second half of last year showed us that Lawrence has the talent to be a top tier QB in the NFL. The defense is talented and young, but I don’t think played to their full potential. 2022 #1 Overall pick Travon Walker did not live up to expectations, but there are talented players there with Tyson Campbell emerging as a solid #1 CB in the league and Devin Lloyd as a top tier MLB. Finishing 26th in DVOA they’ll need to make a big leap to get Jacksonville deeper into the playoffs against the tough AFC Quarterbacks they will face in the playoffs. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over -125, Under +105
Tennessee – This team collapsed down the stretch in 2022 due to injuries and lackluster play, losing their last seven games and blowing a four game division lead. On offense you have an aging QB in Ryan Tannenhill who outside of Derrick Henry has only lost talent across the board since arriving in Nashville. We will see if signing DeAndre Hopkins makes a difference for the offense. Tannenhill is solid, but without weapons this team became overly one dimensional in their attack down the stretch. Does Will Levis push Tannenhill for the starting roll especially if they get off to a slow start is one major question this season. The second is do they trade Derrick Henry in that same scenario? The defense last year was great against the run finishing second. They were however not very good against the pass which teams did against the Titans more than any other team in the league. They still lack depth and overall talent and Mike Vrabel coaches them into playing really good defense. I think with some talent decline here the writing was starting to show on the wall last season. On the other side of the coin, if they can stay healthy this team is only seven games removed from being a sure division winner. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over -135, Under +105
Indianapolis – Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Frank Reich, and Jeff Saturday are all gone. Bring on Anthony Richardson. I’ve been wrong on draft picks before, but I just don’t see how his passing skills translate to the NFL. Justin Fields was a much better passer coming out of college and all he’s done well so far is run. That being said, Shane Steichen did a great job developing a run heavy QB in Jalen Hurts so maybe there is hope. He doesn’t have much beyond Michael Pittman at the WR spot, but I am high on draft pick Josh Downs to play a significant role. Jonathan Taylor is still one of the most talented RBs in the league, I just don’t think he’s going to be motivated to stay after a spat with owner Jim Irsay, and I think he may get moved before the season. The defense should improve adding a returning Shaquille Leonard if he can regain his form before his back surgery. They were not awful last year allowing 334 yards per game, but they did struggle against the run. I think there are too many unknowns for the Colts, but I loved the draft outside of Richardson and they should have decent units surrounding him. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Over -135, Under +105
Houston – The Texans were bad again in 2022 finishing 31st in yards per game on offense and 30th in yards per game on defense. The last three seasons they’ve gone 11-38-1. Now they’ve brought home one of their own to turn it around in Demeco Ryans who I am extremely high on as a coach. He will bring success to this franchise, it just won’t be this year. That being said they’ve got #2 overall pick QB C.J. Stroud and #3 overall pick EDGE rusher Will Anderson to take them into the future. I’m still waiting for a recent Ohio State QB to succeed at the pro level, but I think Stroud checks a lot of boxes. They didn’t spend big on individual free agents, but they signed 24 NFL players in the off-season. Talent isn’t high at most spots on the roster, but the injury drop-off from starter to back-up at most positions should be minimal. There’s no real top weapons for Stroud at any skill position, but the receiver core of Nico Collins, John Metchie and Robert Woods should provide a group of serviceable targets combined with Dalton Schultz. The offensive line is weak and will have Stroud scrambling quite a bit. If there’s reason to be optimistic about improvement its on the defensive side of the ball with Anderson’s hype and Ryan’s coaching. That being said this team has not done enough to improve as both of their first round picks in 2022 struggled to live up to expectations. Look for much of the same in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -135, Over +105
2023 Predictions
Jacksonville 10-7
Tennessee 8-9
Indianapolis 6-11
Houston 5-12
AFC South Action:
Jacksonville – No Action. I’m optimistic they improve as a whole, but their At-Large match-ups for first place draws Kansas City, Buffalo and San Francisco. Those keep me off the over.
Tennessee – No Action. I think the number is right on. Talent didn’t improve, but Vrabel is too good of a coach to see this team completely collapse and they could compete in a weak division.
Indianapolis – Lean Under. No many unknowns here with Richardson and Taylor. If Richardson struggles as I think he will this goes sailing under. If he’s halfway competent the roster is talented enough to win 7-9 games
Houston – Under 6.5, 1 Unit. The talent gap hasn’t been closed enough here and their 4th place schedule includes Denver and the New York Jets.
Viktor Hovland comes through for us at the BMW Championship as we cash an 18-1 winner! He went absolutely nuclear on Sunday posting a 61 which bested the previous course record set by Max Homa on Friday. In addition to Hovland, we also caught Corey Conners (+105) Top 20.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The final event of the PGA Tour Season is upon us, the TOUR Championship. The top thirty players in the FedEx Cup Standings will compete in this week’s unusual event. Based on their current ranking they start with a current number of strokes.
Scottie Scheffler almost won last week at the BMW Championship but came up short finishing T2. He’ll look for redemption at the TOUR Championship after he suffered a similar fate losing to Rory McIlroy late Sunday afternoon.
Rory McIlroy won his third FedEx Cup last season and is looking for his record fourth FedExCup title. This is his highest position entering the TOUR Championship since the FedExCup Starting Strokes format was introduced in 2019.
There will be five players making their TOUR Championship debut including Adam Schenk, Nick Taylor, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, and Taylor Moore.
With the top six for U.S. Team now confirmed (Scheffler, Clark, Harman, Cantlay, Homa, Schauffele), the remaining six captain’s picks will come at the conclusion of the TOUR Championship. There are several players teeing it up this week at East Lake who are certainly in contention for one of those captain’s picks including Lucas Glover, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Speith, and Sam Burns.
Tournament Information:
Dates: August 24th, 2023 – August 27th, 2023
Location: Atlanta, Georgia, United States
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Course Type: Tree-lined Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,346 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play (Staggered Start/ Starting Strokes)
Greens: MiniVerde ultradwarf bermuda
Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .400”
Rough: Tifway 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 74
Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,619 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $75,000,000 /$18,000,000
FedEx Cup Points: The winner receives the FedExCup
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.
In 2007, the TOUR Championship was introduced. Back then, it was the final event of the four-tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs. Starting in 2019, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events. With that change, the TOUR Championship was moved up in the schedule to late August from mid-September.
From 1997 to 2003, this event alternated between the Champions Golf Club and East Lake Golf Club. Starting in 2005, East Lake become the permanent home for the final tournament in the PGA TOUR Playoffs.
East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904 and is the oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta. The first course was built from 1906-07 before renowned golf architect Donald Ross redesigned the course in 1913. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations overseen by Rees Jones, the son of Robert Trent Jones.
The winner of the TOUR Championship will receive a 5-year PGA Tour exemption. This is a recent change made in 2019 as the exemption was only 3 years from 1998-2018.
72-Hole Record:
257, Tiger Woods (2007)
18-Hole Record:
60, Zach Johnson (3rd round, 2007)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
East Lake Golf Club was originally designed by Tom Bendelow and underwent renovations by both Donald Ross and Rees Jones. It is on the longer side measuring 7,346 yards. It ranks 7th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 1st of 46, with the average fairway width being 24.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,619 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 74 bunkers that rank as the 21st fewest out of the 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 197 yards and 235 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.
No. 9, Par 3, 235 Yards: “Depending on the wind, players could use anything from a fairway wood to a long iron on this demanding par 3. Deep bunkers left and right of the two-tiered green leave little room for error. Any player leaving the ball above the pin must take extra care, facing one of East Lake’s most difficult putts. Sunday afternoon drama awaits.”
No. 15, Par 3, 211 Yards: “This 209-yard par 3 is an intimidator, especially with the prevailing wind pushing the ball toward the water right of the green. The only bail-out is a bunker on the left which provides another terrifying shot. The most challenging hole location is front right, but back left, behind the bunker, is also tough.”
The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 389 with the longest being No. 14, playing 520 yards.
No. 1, Par 4, 469 Yards: “A par 5 that has been shortened to play as a par 4 for the TOUR Championship, this hole requires that the tee shot be long and to the left side of the fairway to allow players to see the putting surface. The second shot will be a mid-to long-iron into a fairly large green. The green slopes severely from back right to front left, making lag putting from the back a real chore.”
No. 8, Par 4, 455 Yards: “Two bunkers lie to the right of the fairway landing area on this par 4 at East Lake. The approach is played to a large, undulating green that is flanked by a big bunker to the right and one short to the left. A dominant ridge crosses the center of this green, making it tough to get the ball close to back hole locations.”
No. 14, Par 4, 520 Yards: “The second of two par 5s that have been shortened to play as par 4s for the TOUR Championship, this 520-yard hole will play much shorter than the yardage as the drive will pitch forward on the downslope of the fairway. The second shot will be a long iron from a downhill lie making it tough to get to tight hole locations.”
The two Par 5’s, No. 6 and No. 18 are both relatively short when compared to PGA Tour standards. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.
No. 6, Par 5, 525 Yards: “Three tall pines on the right side of the fairway force players to hit a fade to the best position in the fairway. With a good drive, players can reach this short par 5 in two. A well-bunkered green poses problems if missed long or short. One of the easiest holes at East Lake, a par here will drop a shot to the field.”
No. 18, Par 5, 590 Yards: “A long drive provides an opportunity to reach this green in two, especially if the hole plays downwind. The second shot will be either a mid- to long-iron layup short of a fairway bunker on the left or a fairway wood try for the green in two. The green is guarded in front by deep bunkers, and anything long will be a difficult up-and-down.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 18
You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Scrambling
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
Event/ Comparable Course History
The Field/ Odds:
The odds for this event are different from any other tournament as they have the starting position factored in. Also, another thing to keep an eye out for when placing a bet this week is to verify if the odds are including/ not including starting strokes. The odds are significantly different as you can imagine and may mess up your bet if you choose the wrong option.
There will be 30 players competing in this year’s TOUR Championship. Here are the current favorites (with starting strokes) in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+140) will start in the lead at the TOUR Championship for the second year in a row (-10). Last year, he went into Sunday with the lead but after a charge from Rory McIlroy, he would finish T2. Scottie is coming off another blown lead at the BMW Championship where he finished T2 as well. He has two wins on the PGA Tour this season but it feels like he should have a lot more based on his statistics. His poor putting has been the main reason for his woes this year. Scheffler has only gained strokes putting in eight of his twenty-one starts on Tour this season. Scheffler also won the East Lake Cup back in 2016 which is a collegiate tournament that is played at this venue.
Rory McIlroy (+330) will look to defend his title at the TOUR Championship. In addition to last year, he’s won this event two other times. He started at -6 last year in this event but will start at -7 this year, only three shots back. This is his highest position entering the TOUR Championship since the FedExCup Starting Strokes format was introduced in 2019. McIlroy has two wins on Tour this season and has not finished outside the top 10 in his last nine starts.
Viktor Hovland (+500) is coming off a win at the BMW Championship where he shot a 61 on Sunday to win by two strokes. It was the lowest final-round score by a winner in a FedExCup Playoffs event. With that win, Hovland now has three wins on Tour this year which is the best season of his career. He’s played at East Lake three times before only cracking the top 5 once (2021). Hovland also won the East Lake Cup back in 2018. He’ll start at -8 which is just two shots back of the first seed.
Jon Rahm (+800) has the most wins out of any player on the PGA Tour this season with 4. However, his last win was in April (the Masters), and in his nine starts since then, he only has three top-10 finishes. He’s coming off a T31 and T37 finish so he’ll need to turn things around if he hopes to win his first FedEx Cup. Rahm has played in this event six times before with his best finish coming in 2021 (2nd). He’ll start at -6 which is four shots back of the first seed.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19, ’16), Patrick Cantlay (’21), Xander Schauffele (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15)
Injury Concerns:
Tom Kim (Wrist / Ankle)
Jason Day (Vertigo)
Notable Withdraws:
None
You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.
You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.
Horses for Courses (East Lake Golf Club w/o Starting Strokes):
TOUR Championship
TOUR Championship
TOUR Championship
TOUR Championship
East Lake Golf Club
East Lake Golf Club
East Lake Golf Club
East Lake Golf Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
Xander Schauffele
6
3
1
2
Rory McIlroy
1
14
7
1
Max Homa
3
Sepp Straka
5
Tyrrell Hatton
6
Donkeys for Courses (East Lake Golf Club w/o Starting Strokes):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
(* In 2019, the staggered stroke play format was introduced.)
Picks (Outrights WITHOUT Starting Strokes):
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Unit
Sungjae Im (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
Russell Henley (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
Jordan Spieth (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.01 Units
Picks (Top 5 WITH Starting Strokes):
Max Homa (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Xander Schauffele (+170) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Total Risk on Top 5: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 10 WITH Starting Strokes):
Sungjae Im (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Unit
Tom Kim (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the TOUR Championship: 5.01 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to talk some fantasy football along with Chicago’s radio king Mike North talking some MLB and NFL! First, Kiev talks about Circa Contest sign up week in Las Vegas this weekend. Stop by Radio Row in the Galaxy Ballroom and say high! Grab a free t-shirt and a hat! Next, we cover a great question from a listener as well as go into college football tempo’s from last season. After that, it’s NFL preseason week 3 with some coaching records for the final week as well as a Free Play! Then, Mike North stops by to talk a little MLB with the Cubbies and the Sox as well as some NFL football. Which teams might be a little undervalued coming in? Which teams will be overvalued? Which season win totals does Mike North like for the 2023 football season. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantsy football 2023 running back share! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have arrived at the midway point of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
AFC West
2022 Records
Kansas City 14-3/ Los Angeles Chargers 10-7/ Las Vegas 6-11/ Denver 5-12
Los Angeles – If there is a year where this team finally gets over the hump and ahead of the Chiefs in this division 2023 will be it. In my opinion the only thing holding them back is Brandon Staley and a little more cohesiveness on defense. This team made history giving up a 27-0 lead in the playoffs to Jacksonville and becoming only the 4th team in history to blow that large of a lead. The Chargers are gonna Charger though as they seem to have a talented roster every year and then falter. They haven’t won the division since 2009, and have only been past the divisional round once since 1994. Their best addition may be offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who can hopefully figure out how to get the downfield passing game going again. The roster remains largely unchanged from 2022 with the biggest addition in free agency being weak side LB Eric Kendricks. This is however a talented roster on both sides of the ball that unperformed especially on defense. Look for Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James to improve upon last year. If they can fix some of their struggles in early downs against the run they will have set themselves up for success. Maybe I’m just one of those suckers who believes in this team every year, but at some point the talent has to takeover. If it doesn’t it will be time for a different coach. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over at -155, Under +125
Kansas City – Win the Super Bowl, Have a Parade, Lose a good chunk of your team. That’s how things usually go. This team actually retains a large chunk of their core and has been able to reload and get younger using the picks from the Tyreek Hill trade. The only real exception will be on the offensive line where they replace both tackles. That is a point of concern as Mahomes struggled with pressure in some instances in the past few years. The other question mark for me is Travis Kelce. Mahomes showed last year, he doesn’t need a elite WR to win. Kelce however, turns 34 this year, and while I think he’s super human at some point age catches up to everyone. If he gets hurt or isn’t at the same level from previous years this offense could sputter slightly. On defense this team was middle of the pack in 2022, but I think they over-performed based on situations and metrics and were actually much worse than the stats show. First round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah should give them a solid upgrade at DE and the overall line is solid. Most of my concern on the defense comes in the back seven. There’s no reason to believe this team won’t be a Super Bowl contender again in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -115
Denver – The Nathanial Hackett head coaching hire didn’t last a full season and Russell Wilson looked like a shell of his Seattle self in the big Broncos experiment of 2022. The hype train is rolling however again this year as Sean Payton comes in as Head Coach to bring Russ back from the dead. He will start by checking Wilson’s special treatment. Russ had a personal QB coach and an office on the same floor as coaches and execs in Denver last season. Russ seems to be ok with the changes however, and I think Payton will find some success with another shorter QB. He has a potential #1 Receiver in Jerry Jeudy who was elite in the last 6 games after returning from an ankle injury. The Broncos made three big splashes in Free agency on the lines to help getting Tackle Mike McGlinchey and Guard Ben Powers, as well as DL Zach Allen. I also like the Samaje Perine signing giving them a nice third down option. The defense, which was on the field a ton in 2022 finished 10th in DVOA. This team has an elite secondary and an above average linebacker core. If they can get some improvement upfront from Randy Gregory and Allen turns out as expected this could be a Top 5 unit in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Under at -125, Over -105.
Las Vegas – Josh McDaniels looks like he is set to fail again as an NFL head coach. After jettisoning David Carr is less than ceremonial fashion last year, he’s created conflict bringing in Jimmy Garrapolo. Jimmy G is competent, but I don’t think his ceiling is high, and I think Brock Purdy was better. Kyle Shanahan agrees which doesn’t bode well for future Jimmy G improvement. He will have Josh Jacobs back on a franchise tag to tote the rock which is good for any QB that needs some help opening up the passing game. Of course Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow still provide top notch resources at the receiver spot. The roster saw one of the highest turnovers in the league this off-season. The biggest loss was top TE target Darren Waller. They invested heavily through the draft in the defensive line which was awful in 2022 with Tyree Wilson and Byron Young. They also signed three free agents who will likely start in the back seven. There’s certainly some chance for improvement this season, but I think this team is one Jimmy G injury (He seems to have one every year) away from a Top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -150, Over +120
2023 Predictions
Los Angeles Chargers 12-5
Kansas City 11-6
Denver 10-7
Las Vegas 6-11
AFC West Action:
Los Angeles Chargers – Over 9.5, 1 Unit. Gotta lay some juice here, but I think they’ll be better and it’s time for the star players to get this team to the next level before the real big Herbert contract hits.
Kansas City – No Action. I’ve got this almost right on the number with tough at large games against Cincinnati, Philly and Jacksonville.
Denver – Over 8.5, 1 Unit. I think Payton makes a big culture change here and unless Russell is totally kaput this should hit. Also worth a sprinkle on the Broncos to win the division at around +600.
Las Vegas – Lean Under. McDaniels collapse could be on the horizon with the second most difficult schedule in the NFL.
Time to build that bankroll for the regular season just weeks away!
Miami at Houston -2, O/U 39.5 ET 4:00pm
The Dolphins got creamed by Atlanta 8 days ago. The team looked lackluster with very little energy, but don’t expect to see the same Saturday afternoon when they head to Houston. As a team, the Texans looked very good in their opening game. Stroud on the other hand, not so much. He couldn’t match the opposing defenses’ speed and looked a little lost. Now is the media way overacting to this performance, yes. Is he going to figure it out quick? It does not appear. Saturday he will have to face Miami’s first stringers for at least the first few drives. Will we see Tua? Mike McDaniel will not confirm, but I believe we will for a drive or two. Which leaves it up to Mike White and the 2nd team to beat these Texans. I have plenty of faith in White to get the job done and lead us to halftime with a W.
1H: Dolphins +1.5 (Caesars -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5u
Las Vegas at LA Rams +3.5, O/U 40 ET 9:00pm
The Raiders head west to LA to take on the Rams. While I might not think much of Josh McDaniels in the regular season, he certainly comes to play in August. Winning all 5 preseason games as the Raiders head coach, with a win margin of over 12 points in those affairs. This second string on Vegas are a bunch of young guys trying to make a name for themselves in this league. The QB comparison in this game greatly favors the Raiders. The Rams will send out Brett Rypien and Stetson Bennett for the majority if not all of this game. As where Vegas will have wily veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie QB Aiden O’Connell for most of this game. Combine this with McVays record in the preseason tonight (1-6 last). I think the Raiders on the money-line are a strong play!
Raiders ML -175 (FanDuel) risk 1.75u to win 1u
Dallas at Seattle -7, O/U 40.5 ET 10:00pm
A fight broke out earlier this week in practice between these two teams, don’t think for one second these guys forgot about it. Any chance they get to “hit” each other on Saturday night, they will be taking advantage of every opportunity. With that said, the Boys are getting 7 points. In a preseason game? Yes, you read that correctly. Does it appear on paper that the Seahawks have better position players taking the field? Yes. Does that equivalate to a win? I don’t believe so. Does it equivalate to covering? Absolutely not. Pete Carroll’s squads over the years have struggled mightily in week 2 of the preseason, 1-6 in their last 7. The game plan put into play clearly does equate to winning. I also think week 1 was an overreaction to their dominant win over the Vikings who have recently shown zero desire to be there in preseason. Do we be greedy and take the money-line? I’m not, give me the Cowboys and the 7 and hope Will Grier can replicate what he did last week versus Jacksonville.
Cowboys +7 (FanDuel -110) risk 0.83u to win 0.75u
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Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 11 is available for your listening pleasure.
I will go over my 2023 NFL Futures spreadsheet, then give my predictions for all 8 divisions, including all 32 teams, and we will end it with a Podcast Play!
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The Burrow-less Bengals (at least for now) travel south to Atlanta for a week 2 preseason clash. Very important to note these teams do not face each other in the regular season, so essentially no plays are “off” the table. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor enters this game with a 3-8 preseason record so far in his career. The intensity these guys bring in September and on clearly does not exist in the preseason. With these guys already on edge due to Joe’s calf injury, I can’t imagine the starters will be balls to the wall in this spot. Get their feet wet, make some plays, take, or give a few hits and move on. So, with all that said do we back the Falcons for the game or the 1st half? Yes, I did just state Taylor’s record, but there more than just numbers. Being ahead on the scoreboard at any point during these games means nothing to him. Also, I’m not a big fan of laying 6 points in any game let alone a preseason game, and knowing the edge Atlanta has with their first stringers versus Cincinnati’s. I think it’s a no brainer to take the first half. The Bengals will give a heavy dose of Browning and Siemian early on. Be sure not to confuse the same Siemian that has been successful versus 2nd and 3rd stringers in preseason over the years. This will not be the case on Friday night. Give me Desmond Ridder, an aspiring QB in this league looking to prove himself. This also applies to just about every other playmaking position in this offense. Do note it’s also Atlanta’s first official home game with a ton of potential upside to this 2023 season, well at least to me. So, the effort factor severely favors the Falcons as well. Let’s back Atlanta in the 1st half Friday night!
1H: Falcons -4.5 (BetMGM -105) risk 1.05u to win 1u
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So we all know the song and dance about the starters playing and the spread moving in preseason football. The big question is what happens when the starters come out? What we know is that Joe Burrow is out until the season and we also know that Atlanta will play their starters including QB Desmond Ritter. The issue that I have is that Ritter is still sorta green so there is no guarantee exactly how good that this man will be. I know that Arthur smith is also not stupid enough to risk injury to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. From the Bengals side of things, we do have some competent quarterbacks here in Jake Browning and Trevor Siemian. These guys are just fighting to keep their jobs much less win the game. Lastly, neither of these coaches are winning preseason coaches with Smith at 2-4 and Zac Taylor at 3-7. Take the dog here. They could lose by six or less and it still hits.
We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC East
2022 Records
Philadelphia 14-3/ Dallas 12-5/ New York Giants 9-7-1/ Washington 8-8-1
Philadelphia – I underestimated Jalen Hurts last year. I loved the Philly O-Lines and D-Lines and those were as advertised. But I missed on Hurts. He showed up and could have won the MVP if he hadn’t gotten injured. Now Hurts has gotten paid and Philly had to shed some talent, but overall turnover was minimal. The Eagles also had the best draft grade according to Football Outsiders in 20 years. They reloaded on the D-Line with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith and improved the O-Line. They were the first team in history with four players recording ten or more sacks, and they could repeat that this year. The offense returns mostly intact for a team that was third in both yards and points per game last year. The key to maintaining last years success should really just come down to staying healthy, and if they do I see a repeat of last year in a weak NFC. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
Dallas – Like the Eagles, the Cowboys had very minimal off-season turnover of their roster from a team that won 12 games in 2022. They lost a close playoff game to the 49ers, but the fire Mike McCarthy bandwagon was rolling all season long. McCarthy has a .614 career winning percentage, and while you can claim that most of that was because of Aaron Rodgers it still puts him in rare company in the NFL. That being said, I think Dak may be in decline which could hurt that win percentage. He led the league along with Davis Mills in interceptions and did so in 3 fewer games. There are some metrics that just say he was unlucky, but the eye test for me says otherwise and he turns 30 this year so the running ability may slow some more. He did get a new weapon in Brandin Cooks if he has anything left in the tank. On defense Micah Parsons is on another level and is a favorite to win the defensive player of the year. They added Mazi Smith in the draft to fill their biggest hole in the middle of the line and aging corner Stephen Gilmore to go opposite ball hawk Trevon Diggs. They were extremely lucky in forcing fumbles being a net +12 last year, and between that and Dak’s turnovers I see a step back in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over -170, Under +140
New York Giants – Brian Daboll is one of my favorite coaches in the league. I love a passionate guy who doesn’t come across as a moron and those are hard to find. He certainly had his team outperform expectations, but the metrics say a good deal of it had to do with luck. I am not a Daniel Jones believer. I think the G-Men made a mistake in the signing of the 40 million/year deal. That being said Darren Waller should be a nice safety blanket for him since he doesn’t have a true #1 at receiver, and if he does make another step forward maybe they can navigate their way back to the post-season in the weak NFC. What will Saquon do is another big question mark, will he be motivated to get a big contract with the Giants or a new team, or just kind of coast to 2024 after what was said about his pass catching abilities? On defense I love the Bobby Okereke signing and they drafted CB Deonte Banks who was my second favorite corner in the draft. The defense should improve, but not to become a top 10 unit, and I need one more season of Jones improvement for me to become a believer in this team. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Even at -115
Washington – A pretty good overall roster with nobody to play quarterback is the story in DC. The defense was 3rd in overall yards allowed last year and they were also first in success rate allowed, which is really the reason they were able to win eight games last year. One big question mark as to whether or not they’ll improve on offense may be Eric Bieniemy as the new OC. Carson Wentz was an experiment that turned out sour quickly and now they turn to 5th round pick Sam Howell after landing nobody but Jacoby Brissett in free agency. Daniel Synder selling the team certainly has a part in what happened this off-season at the QB spot. They did spend upgrading the O-line and retained Daron Payne at DT which is huge. The draft however left a lot to be desired focusing on just the corner spot and for me it just feels like a transition year in Washington. I’d watch for new owner to be followed by a new GM and as much as I like Ron Rivera, a new Head Coach in 2024. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
2023 Predictions
Philadelphia 11-6
Dallas 9-8
New York Giants 7-10
Washington 6-11
NFC East Action:
Philadelphia – No Action. They have a fairly easy first place schedule getting Tampa and Minnesota along with KC. This team should win 11 or 12 games and I can’t put any money down here.
Dallas – Lean Under. They got lucky a lot last year, and like I said I’m down on Dak.
New York Giants – No action. This number feels right on, and even though I’m not a Daniel Jones believer he did show enough last year with the weak NFC they could certainly get to 8 or 9 wins.
Washington – No Action. Sorry, the NFC East is boring from a betting perspective for me. As much as I think there’s changes coming in DC, the Commanders defense is good enough to keep them in many games and if they get lucky like the 2022 Vikings or Cowboys they could be above .500.
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Kelley Ford @KFordRatings from @TheLines, @Wehateyourteam_ and Vegas Matty from @Footballcontest comes on to discuss the college football landscape as well as the huge football contests in Vegas. First, Kiev talks about some upcoming events at Circa Las Vegas for contest week! Next, Kelley comes on and the guys get right into all of the issues with college football and how to maybe fix them. Then, Kiev and Kelley talk Heisman favorites while Kiev gives out a long shot homer play that makes some sense. Next, Kelley and Kiev talk Sun Belt football previewing the better teams in that conference as well as some sleepers. After that, Vegas Matty comes on to discuss the HUGE football contests @CircaSports and @Superbooksports. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 292 Sterling vs O’Malley with some #FREEPLAYS. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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