Fortinet Championship – Preview & Picks

By

-

September 13, 2023

After a brief hiatus, the PGA tour returns. The FedExCup Fall gets underway this week at the Fortinet Championship.

The new schedule only allows the top 50 in the FedExCup Standings through the BMW Championship to be exempt into the 2024 Signature Events (8). As a result, we’ll likely start to see some more competitive fields this Fall which is certainly an improvement from last year.

The top 70 players in the FedExCup Standings have secured their 2024 PGA Tour status, while the remaining 55 spots are up for grabs across the next seven events.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Max Homa will look to become the first golfer since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic in 2009-11 to win the same TOUR event three years in a row. He seems to have a majority of his success in California claiming 4 of his 6 PGA Tour victories in the same state he went to college.

Justin Thomas will play his first PGA Tour event following the Wyndham Championship. He finished 71st in the FedEx Cup Standings missing the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time in his career. He’ll look to regain his form heading into the Ryder Cup after being selected as one of the captain’s picks.

Following this week’s event, the PGA Tour will not return until October for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. During that two-week break, the Ryder Cup takes place at Macro Simone Golf & Country Club in Rome, Italy.

Tournament Information:

Dates: September 14th, 2023 – September 17th, 2023
Location: Napa, California, United States
Course: Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
Course Type: Resort
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,123 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Poa annua / bentgrass .110”
Fairways: Bermuda / Poa / rye .450”
Rough: Bluegrass / ryegrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 53
Water Hazard(s): 2 (In-Play on 2 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,400 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000 /$1,512,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 71.52 (-0.48), Rank, 21 of 50
- 2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Rank 32 of 50
- 2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Rank 44 of 51
Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: -2
- 2021: -3
- 2020: -5

Course Architect:

Course Architect: Ben Harmon (1955)
Renovations: Robert Trent Jones Jr. (1966), Johnny Miller (2011)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

Comparable Courses:
- Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – RESULTS
- Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
- Waialae Country Club – Sony Open – RESULTS
- TPC Twin Cities – 3M Open – RESULTS

Comparable Location (Napa, California):
- PGA WEST – La Quinta, California – The American Express
- Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, California – Farmers Insurance Open
- Pebble Beach Golf Links – Pebble Beach, California – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades, California – The Genesis Invitational

Comparable Yardage (7,123 Yards):
- PGA National Resort – 7,125 Yards – The Honda Classic
- Sedgefield Country Club – 7,131 Yards – Wyndham Championship

Comparable Greens (Poa annua / bentgrass .110”):
- TPC River Highlands – Bentgrass / Poa annua .110” – Travelers Championship
- Detroit Golf Club – Bentgrass / Poa annua .100” – Rocket Mortgage Classic

Comparable Average Green Size (5,400 sq. ft.):
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 5,500 sq. ft. – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 5,500 sq. ft. – THE PLAYERS Championship

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, September 14th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 9:00 PM ET
Round 2: Friday, September 15th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 9:00 PM ET
Round 3: Saturday, September 16th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 9:00 PM ET
Round 4: Sunday, September 17th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 9:00 PM ET

Weather:

Thursday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 60% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 10 mp/h SW, 65% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 10 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 11 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The Fortinet Championship, previously known as the Safeway Open and Frys.com Open, is the opening event of the reimagined FedExCup Fall. Fortinet took over the naming rights in 2021, signing a six-year deal.

Silverado Resort and Spa has hosted this event since 2014. The original 18-hole course at Silverado opened in 1955 but just 11 years later it was re-designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. In addition to the re-design of the North Course, he added a South Course. In 2010, Johnny Miller purchased the resort and made several improvements. He also added 250 yards to the North Course making it up to current PGA standards.

The course routing has changed with 10 holes in a different order, including the signature 11th hole playing as the tournament’s 17th. See the chart below for all of the routing changes made to the tournament layout.

2022 Layout			2023 Layout
Hole	Par	Yardage	Hole	Par	Yardage	Routing Change
1	4	436	1	4	436	–
2	3	197	2	3	197	–
3	4	424	3	4	424	–
4	4	407	4	4	407	–
5	5	538	5	5	538	–
6	4	417	6	4	417	–
7	3	212	7	3	212	–
8	4	360	8	4	391	OLD #12
9	5	557	9	4	458	OLD #13
10	4	422	10	4	412	OLD #14
11	3	182	11	3	189	OLD #15
12	4	391	12	5	571	OLD #16
13	4	458	13	4	375	OLD #17
14	4	412	14	4	360	OLD #8
15	3	189	15	5	557	OLD #9
16	5	571	16	4	422	OLD #10
17	4	375	17	3	182	OLD #11
18	5	575	18	5	575	–

Most Wins at Event:
- 2, Max Homa (2022,2021) & Brendan Steele (2016, 2017)
72-Hole Record (Silverado):
- 267, Stewart Cink (2020)
18-Hole Record (Silverado):
- 61, Chesson Hadley (2nd round, 2017)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The North Course at Silverado Resort & Spa is on the shorter side measuring 7,123 yards. It ranks 8th out of 42 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 42, with the average fairway width being 25.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,400 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 50 bunkers which ranks as the 5th fewest out of the 42 courses.

The four Par 3’s at Silverado range from 182 to 212 yards. Last year, all of these holes had a scoring average over par.

No. 11 (Old/ Members No. 15), 189 yards, Par 3: “This challenging par 3 will get your blood pumping. Hitting with the wrong club may cost you a penalty stroke and missing left of the green will leave you with a nearly impossible up and down. Par is a fantastic score on this very tough hole.”

No. 17 (Old/ Members No. 11), 182 yards, Par 3: “This beautiful short par 3 over water is the signature hole on the North Course. Although short, this hole has many difficult pin locations, Par on this hole is a good score.”

There are ten Par 4’s at Silverado with the majority (six) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. The two toughest Par 4’s last year were holes No. 4 and No. 13 (Current No. 9).

No. 13 (Old/ Members No. 17), 375 yards, Par 4: “This ideal drive on this short, dogleg left par 4 will be positioned on the far right side of the fairway (aim towards the large oak tree). A tee shot too far left off the tee and you will get blocked out by the tall Redwood Trees. Make sure you take extra club on your approach as the green is uphill and protected by a small pot bunker. Everything sloped to the middle of the green. A good second shot will leave you with a good look at birdie.”

No. 14 (Old/ Members No. 8), 360 yards, Par 4: “Position off this tee is crucial for your approach shot. With a water hazard right and out-of-bounds left, medium to long hitters will generally use a fairway wood from the tee for more accuracy. If you find the fairway, you will likely have a short iron to the green. This green slopes from back to front, one of the toughest greens on the course, a two-putt here and you’re gaining on the field!”

The four Par 5’s on the course are No. 5, No. 12, No. 15, and No. 18. All of these holes played under par last year. No. 5 had the lowest scoring average on the course last year (-0.427).

No. 12 (Old/ Members No. 16), 571 yards, Par 5: “Keep your drive right on this straightaway par 5 as a water hazard runs down the entire hole on the left side. A comfortable layup to the left center of the fairway should present you with a good angle and a short iron into this green. This green slopes gently from right to left.”

No. 18, 575 yards, Par 5: “This finishing hole is the longest par 5 on the North Course. Avoid the fairway bunkers on the right off the tee and you should be able to leave yourself in the perfect position to hit this green in regulation. Short left on your approach will make for a difficult par. Play towards the middle back of this green to ensure a finishing par.”

Featured Holes: 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Proximity: 75 -100 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x6)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x3)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Comparable Courses and Event History

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Fortinet Championship. Only two of the world’s top thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Max Homa (+750) has won the Fortinent Championship in back-to-back years. He’s coming into this week in great form as well finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last four events.

Justin Thomas (+1200) missed out on the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time in his career. He finished T12 in his last start on the PGA Tour at the Wyndham Championship. Thomas last played in this event in 2020 where he finished T4.

Sahith Theegala (+2000) will make his fourth appearance at the Fortinet Championship this week. His best finish was last year where he placed T6. Theegala did miss out on the TOUR Championship but did play well in his last two events finishing T15 at the BMW Championship and T13 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Cam Davis (+2200) struggled last year but comes into this event having finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour. This will be his fifth appearance at the Fortinet Championship. In his four prior finishes at Silverado, he’s only finished inside the top 20 once.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500) finished T20 in his last PGA Tour start, the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s been in solid form with his last missed cut coming all the way back in April at the RBC Heritage. This will be his fifth appearance at this event with his best finish coming back in in his debut (T30, 2017).

Previous Winners in the Field (Silverado):
- Max Homa (’22, ’21), Stewart Cink (’20), Cameron Champ (’19), Kevin Tway (’18), Sangmoon Bae (’14)

Notable Withdraws:
- Yuxin Lin (Playing the Simmons Bank Open, KFT)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

Horses for Courses:

	Fortinet Championship	Fortinet Championship	Safeway Open	Safeway Open	Safeway Open
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Max Homa	1	1	T62	T60
Sahith Theegala	T6	T47	T14

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	Fortinet Championship	Fortinet Championship	Safeway Open	Safeway Open	Safeway Open
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Sean O’Hair		T58	MC		MC
Martin Laird	MC		MC	MC	T46
George McNeil			MC	MC
Chris Stroud	T43	MC	MC	MC	MC
Patton Kizzire	MC	T28	MC	MC
Scott Brown		MC	MC	MC	MC
Kyle Stanley	MC	MC	T46	MC
Chad Ramey	MC	MC
Kevin Chappell	MC	MC	T56	T40
Hank Lebioda		MC	MC	T44	MC
Ryan Armour	MC	T51	MC
Tyler Duncan	MC	MC	MC	T56	T69
Martin Trainer		MC	MC	MC	T60
Matthew NeSmith	MC	T51	MC	MC
Ben Martin	T67	MC		MC
Robert Streb	MC		MC	MC	MC
Wesley Bryan			MC		MC
Kevin Stadler		MC		MC
Kelly Kraft	MC	MC	MC		MC
Kramer Hickok	T25	MC	MC		MC
MJ Daffue	MC		T72
Max Mcgreevy	MC	MC
Ted Potter Jr.		MC	MC		MC
Kyounghoon Lee			MC	MC	MC
Henrik Norlander	MC		MC	MC
Callum Tarren	MC	MC
Seung-yul Noh	MC	MC
Kevin Yu	MC	MC
Trevor Werbylo	MC	MC

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

2022: Max Homa (-16)
- Price: 16-1
2021: Max Homa (-19)
- Price: 60-1
2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
- Price: 200-1
2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
- Price: 150-1
2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
- Price: 66-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

2022: Max Homa
- T5 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
- T23 – BMW Championship (PGA)
- T42 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
- T24 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
- MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)

2021: Max Homa
- T63 – BMW Championship (PGA)
- T47 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
- T51 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
- T40 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
- T25 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)

2020: Stewart Cink
- MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
- T46 – 3M Open (PGA)
- T62 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
- T17 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
- MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)

2019: Cameron Champ
- T28 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
- T8 – Dunlop Phoenix (JPN)
- T65 – BMW Championship (PGA)
- T21 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
- MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)

2018: Kevin Tway
- T43 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
- T56 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
- T11 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
- T17 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
- T50 – John Deere Classic (PGA)

Picks (Outrights):

Sahith Theegala (+1600) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

Brendon Todd (+4000) – Caesars
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Akshay Bhatia (+4500) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Davis Thompson (+5000) – Caesars
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Taylor Montgomery (+6000) – Caesars
- Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.18 Units

Picks (Top 20):

Cam Davis (+120) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Beau Hossler (+145) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

Chez Reavie (+100) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Erik van Rooyen (+150) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Fortinet Championship: 5.18 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

NFL 2025 Power Ratings

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

September 12, 2023

These will be found under the “Betting, Info and Trends” on our website updated weekly

Fantasy Football Week 2 – Injuries, Waivers, Booms and Busts

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

September 12, 2023

Key Injuries:

RB JK Dobbins out for the year with a torn Achilles.

RB Austin Eckler has an ankle Injury and is questionable.

TE Greg Dulcich hurt his leg.

RB Aaron Jones hurt his hamstring vs the Bears.

WR Jakobi Meyers had a concussion vs the Broncos.

WR Deonte Johnson

TE Pat Freiermuth did not return vs the 49ers.

WR Tyler Lockett had a concussion.

QB Aaron rogers with an ankle injury and out for the season.

Waiver Wire:

RB Gus Edwards for Dobbins injury.

RB Justice Hill for Dobbins injury.

RB Joshua Kelly for the Eckler injury.

TE Darnell Washington maybe a streamer this week vs Cleveland.

RB Tyler Allgeier had a good game vs Carolina and only owned in 56% of leagues.

RB Kyren Williams looked great for the Rams with 2 TDs and 15 carries.

RB Kenneth Gainwell if available.

RB Roschon Johnson from the Bears.

WR Puka Nacua had 15 targets for the Rams with Kupp out. That is amazing.

WR Tutu Atwell from the Rams also looked good with 8 targets and over 100 yards.

WR Kendrick Bourne had 11 targets for New England.

QB Zach Wilson for the Rogers injury.

Non-starters trending up for week 2:

RB Gus Edwards at the Bengals.

RB Rashad White vs the Bears defense.

WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba at the Lions is a good one.

RB Ezekiel Elliot vs a bad Miami run D.

TE Darren Waller vs a bad Cardinals team.

WR Gabe Davis vs the Raiders D.

WR Christian Kirk vs the Chiefs D could find some openings.

QB Ryan Tannehill vs the Chargers could be a shootout.

QB Jared Goff might be a full time starter now hosting the Seahawks.

Busts:

QB Desmond Ritter vs the Packers Defense.

QB Matt Stafford vs the 49ers defense is brutal.

WR Chase Claypool can be dropped.

RB Cam Akers vs the Niners defense isn’t nice.

RB D’Andre Swift had 1 carry last game. He might be toast and maybe why the Eagles inquired about Jonathan Taylor.

QB Kirk Cousins vs the Eagles is rough.

RB Alexander Mattison vs the Eagles is tough.

RB Raheem Mostert vs the Patriots isn’t good.

Nasty Sleeper: RB Kenneth Gainwell vs the Vikings terrible defense. He looks to be the starter now.

Podcast 62 – 23 – College & NFL Football Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 2 – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

September 12, 2023

We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 3. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Week 1 Monday Night Prop Play – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

September 11, 2023

Please follow our Tiktok Channel!

@theoddsbreakers

#sportsbetting #NFL #mondaynightfootball

♬ WIN A LOT – Bouba Savage & Lil Uzi Vert

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145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

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2023 – 24 NHL Season Preview – Pacific Division

By

Patrick Gates

-

September 11, 2023

The NHL Season returns on October 10th with a tripleheader highlighted by the Vegas Golden Knights raising their first Stanley Cup championship banner before facing the Seattle Kraken.

Before that, I’ll break down each division and get you caught up on everything that happened in the offseason. I’ll also include any bets that I have on each team.

In addition to these weekly articles, an episode of Expected Bets For will also drop that offers some more insight into what each member of the podcast is thinking heading into the season.

Anaheim Ducks

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 23-47-12 (58 Points – 8th)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 39-43
2022-23 O/U: 42-38

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +25000
- Conference Winners: +13000
- Odds to win the Division: +20000
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (+1700), No (-4000)
- Team Total Points: 67.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- F – Andrew Agozzino (from San Jose)
- D – Ilya Lyubushkin (from Buffalo)
- D – Radko Gudas (three years, $12MM)
- D – Robert Hagg (one year, $775K)
- F – Alex Killorn (four years, $25MM)
- G – Alex Stalock (one year, $800K)

Key Departures:
- D – Nathan Beaulieu (unsigned UFA)
- D – Simon Benoit (unsigned UFA)
- F – Max Comtois (unsigned UFA)
- F – Derek Grant (Zurich, NLA)
- D – Scott Harrington (unsigned UFA)
- F – Justin Kirkland (Arizona, one year, $775K)*
- F – Jayson Megna (Boston, one year, $775K)*
- D – John Moore (unsigned UFA)
- D – Chase Priskie (Washington, one year, $775K)*
- D – Kevin Shattenkirk (Boston, one year, $1.05MM)
- F – Josiah Slavin (Toronto, AHL)
- G – Anthony Stolarz (Florida, one year, $1.1MM)
- D – Andrej Sustr (trade with San Jose)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Adam Henrique	Trevor Zegras	Troy Terry
Alex Killorn	Mason McTavish	Ryan Strome
Frank Vatrano	Leo Carlsson	Jakob Silfverberg
Max Jones	Benoit-Olivier Groulx	Brett Leason

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Cam Fowler	Jamie Drysdale
Robert Hagg	Radko Gudas
Olen Zellweger	Ilya Lyubushkin

GOALIES
John Gibson	Lukas Dostal

Team Preview:

Anaheim will have a new head coach this season in Greg Cronin who will replace Dallas Eakins. Cronin enters his first NHL head coaching job after coaching Colorado of the American Hockey League the past five seasons. He was also an NHL assistant coach for 12 seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders.

While the Anaheim Ducks finished last in the NHL in terms of points last season, they unfortunately did not win the lottery, sliding to second. Instead of taking Adam Fantilli who was penciled in to be the second overall pick behind Bedard, the Ducks went a different direction taking Leo Carlsson. He’s slated to be Anaheim’s third line Center behind Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish.

The Ducks made a few offseason acquisitions headlined by Alex Killorn who they signed to a four-year, $25 Million Dollar deal. While he is on the older side (33 years old), he is coming off his two best seasons offensively. It’ll be interesting to see what this veteran brings to this young core and how his numbers will change from Tampa to Anaheim. In addition to Killorn, they also brought in Radko Gudas who was great for Florida during their Stanley Cup run last season. He was on their third line pairing but given the strength of Anaheim’s defensive unit, he’ll be given a much larger role. Alex Stallock was also signed this offseason and will be in contention for John Gibson’s backup with Duck’s prospect Lukas Dostal.

Despite the Ducks making some improvements this offseason and new head coach Greg Cronin’s optimism, they are still a non-factor in terms of competing even for the Division. However, this team should improve from last year and take a step in the right direction.

Pick(s):
- Anaheim Ducks over 67.5 Points (-115) – DraftKings

Calgary Flames

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 38-27-17 (93 Points – 5th)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 34-48
2022-23 O/U: 40-41

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +3000
- Conference Winners: +1500
- Odds to win the Division: +800
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-180), No (+145)
- Team Total Points: 95.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- F – Yegor Sharangovich (from New Jersey)

Key Departures:
- F – Trevor Lewis (Los Angeles, one year, $775K)
- F – Milan Lucic (Boston, one year, $1MM)
- D – Connor Mackey (NY Rangers, one year, $775K)
- F – Brett Ritchie (UFA)
- F – Nick Ritchie (UFA)
- D – Troy Stecher (Arizona, one year, $1.1MM)
- D – Michael Stone (retirement)
- F – Tyler Toffoli (trade with New Jersey)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Jonathan Huberdeau	Elias Lindholm	Yegor Sharangovich
Dillion Dube	Nazem Kadri	Matt Coronato
Andrew Mangiapane	Mikael Backlund	Blake Coleman
Jakob Pelletier	Adam Ruzicka	Walker Duehr

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Noah Hanifin	Rasmus Andersson
Mackenzie Weegar	Chris Tanev
Oliver Kylington	Nikita Zadorov

GOALIES
Jacob Markstrom	Daniel Vladar

Team Preview:

After a disappointing season last year, the Flames have a renewed sense of optimism given their new general manager Craig Conroy, and head coach, Ryan Huska. Conroy was Treliving’s assistant GM and replaced him in May. One of his first moves made as a GM was to promote Huska, who was an assistant with the Flames for the past five seasons. Calgary also brought back Flames legend Jarome Iginla as a special adviser to the GM. They’ll have their work cut out for them as they have several key players becoming free agent’s next season.

The Flames traded Tyler Toffoli away to the Devils for Yegor Sharangovich who was a Restricted Free Agent this offseason. They resigned Sharangovich to a two-year $6.2 Million Dollar deal. He was solid for New Jersey in his first two seasons but struggled last year.

Calgary has a bunch of issues they need to address heading into the season starting with goaltending. Jacob Markstrom had his worst season as a full-time start last year after a strong campaign the season prior.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri both had disappointing seasons for the Flames last year. Huberdeau finished with 55 points (15 goals, 40 assists) in 79 games which was a huge drop off in terms of production from the 115 points he had in 80 games with the Panthers in 2021-22. Kadri had a down year finishing with 56 points (24 goals, 32 assists) in 82 games compared to the previous season with the Avalanche where he had 87 points (28 goals, 59 assists) in 71 games.

Pick(s):
- Calgary Flames over 94.5 Points (-106) – FanDuel

I’m going to be high on the Flames this season after a letdown year. Darryl Sutter clearly lost the locker room last year and after struggling to start the season, players didn’t seem to like his style of coaching and buying into his system. Now, Ryan Huska, who was an assistant with them for the past five years, clearly knows what makes this team tick. They have an extremely talented roster that is more than capable of competing for a playoff berth. If Markstrom can rebound after struggling between the pipes this team should be able to win two more games than last year, hitting their season total over.

Edmonton Oilers

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 50-23-9 (109 Points – 2nd)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 46-36
2022-23 O/U: 46-27

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +1000
- Conference Winners: +500
- Odds to win the Division: +195
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-750), No (+500)
- Team Total Points: 106.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- F – Connor Brown (one year, $775k with bonuses)
- F – Lane Pederson (two years, $1.55MM)

Key Departures:
- F – Nick Bjugstad (Arizona, two years $4.2MM)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Zach Hyman	Connor McDavid	Connor Brown
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	Leon Draisaitl	Evander Kane
Mattias Janmark	Ryan McLeod	Warren Foegele
Dyaln Holloway	Lane Pederson	Derek Ryan

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Darnell Nurse	Cody Ceci
Mattias Ekholm	Evan Bouchard
Brett Kulak	Vincent Desharnais

GOALIES
Stuart Skinner	Jack Campbell

Team Preview:

Despite going all in, the Oilers have been eliminated by the Stanley Cup Champions in back-to-back seasons (21-22 – Colorado, 22-23 – Vegas). Connor McDavid led the NHL in scoring last season with 153 points (64 goals, 89 assists) and captured his third Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player. Leon Draistail finished right behind him in scoring with 128 points (52 goals, 76 assists). He has now scored more than 50 goals in three of his last five seasons.

The biggest move the Oilers made this offseason was signing Connor Brown to a one-year, $4 million contract. He only played four games last year after suffering a torn ACL but has some chemistry with McDavid as they were teammates in the OHL on the Erie Otters. Edmonton also reigned restricted free agents Evena Bouchard and Ryan McLeod to muti-year contracts.

Edmonton’s offensive led the NHL in goals per game last year and adding Brown should so much-needed depth for this unit. Defensively, their blueline has been better in the past few seasons but can still improve. Having Mattias Ekholm for a full season should also help in that department. Their main concern is goaltending as Jack Campbell struggled in this first season with the team. He would eventually lose the starting job to Stuart Skinner who was exceptional as a rookie.

This team should be poised for another playoff run as they mainly have all the pieces in place. It’ll be interesting to see if Campbell can live up to his contract and vie for the starting role or if Skinner is the main guy between the pipes.

Pick(s):
- None

Los Angeles Kings

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 47-25-10 (104 Points – 3rd)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 46-36
2022-23 O/U: 42-36

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +2200
- Conference Winners: +1100
- Odds to win the Division: +400
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-400), No (+300)
- Team Total Points: 100.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- F – Pierre-Luc Dubois (from Winnipeg)
- D – Andreas Englund (two years, $2M)
- F – Trevor Lewis (one year, $775K)
- G – David Rittich (one year, $875K)
- G – Cam Talbot (one year, $1M)

Key Departures:
- F – Lias Andersson (Montreal, one-year, $775K)
- F – Alex Iafallo (traded to Winnipeg)
- G – Joonas Korpisalo (Ottawa, five years, $20M)
- F – Rasmus Kupari (traded to Winnipeg)
- F – Zack MacEwen (Ottawa, three years, $2.33M)
- F – Gabriel Vilardi (traded to Winnipeg)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Quinton Byfield	Anze Kopitar	Adrian Kempe
Kevin Fiala	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Arthur Kaliyev
Trevor Moore	Phillip Danault	Viktor Arvidsson
Carl Grundstrom	Blake Lizotte	Trevor Lewis

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Mikey Anderson	Drew Doughty
Vladislav Gavrikov	Matt Roy
Tobias Bjornfot	Brandt Clarke

GOALIES
Pheonix Copley	Cam Talbot

Team Preview:

Despite making the playoffs the past two seasons, they have not won a playoff series since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014. The Los Angeles Kings made a major splash this offseason by acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois in hopes of returning to the Stanley Cup. He has 63 points (27 goals, 36 assists) with the Winnipeg Jets last year and will likely be the second-line center. Anze Kopitar, who just signed a two-year contract extension, will remain as the Kings first line Center. Kopitar led the Kings in points last season with 74 (28 goals, 46 assists).

The Kings did lose several pieces from their roster including Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi, and Rasmus Kupari who were a part of the P L-D trade. Joonas Korpisalo, who was solid for them in the playoffs last season, also left to sign with Ottawa. They had a rotating cast in net last year and will be something that they need to improve on this upcoming year. Pheonix Copley and newly acquired Cam Talbot will be their two netminders this season.

While I’m not sure the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois is the answer to all of their problems, Los Angeles should have another solid year. They have enough talent up front and defensively to return to the post-season their goaltending remains in question until proven otherwise.

Pick(s):
- None

San Jose Sharks

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 22-44-16 (60 Points – 7th)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 38-44
2022-23 O/U: 48-30

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +25000
- Conference Winners: +13000
- Odds to win the Division: +20000
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (+1700), No (-4000)
- Team Total Points: 66.5 (Over -110/ Under -120)

Key Additions:
- G – Mackenzie Blackwood (two years, $4.7MM)
- D – Kyle Burroughs (three years, $3.3MM)
- F – Filip Zadina (one year, $1.1MM)
- F – Givani Smith (two years, $1.6M)
- F – Mikael Granlund (from Pittsburgh)
- F – Mike Hoffman (from Montreal)
- D – Jan Rutta (from Pittsburgh)
- F – Anthony Duclair (from Florida)

Key Departures:
- D – Erik Karlsson (traded to Pittsburgh)
- F – Andreas Johnsson (traded to Pittsburgh)
- G – James Reimer (Detroit, one year, $1.5M)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Alexander Barabanov	Tomas Hertl	Luke Kunin
Mike Hoffman	Logan Couture	Anthony Duclair
Filip Zadina	Mikael Granlund	Fabian Zetterlund
Oskar Lindblom	Nico Sturm	Kevin Lebanc

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Mario Ferraro	Jan Rutta
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	Matt Benning
Jacob MacDonald	Radim Simek

GOALIES
Kappo Kahkonen	Mackenzie Blackwood

Team Preview:

The Sharks are currently going through a rebuilding phase. One of the most notable offseason moves included the Sharks trading the reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson to Pittsburgh. Karlsson had 101 points (25 goals, 76 assists) last season with San Jose. Despite putting up over 100 points by himself the Sharks finished with their lowest points percentage since 1995-96.

While San Jose does have some bad contracts on the books, clearing out Karlsson was a step in the right direction. It’ll also be interesting to see how they deal with the other veterans on the team including Logan Couture (34) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic (36) moving forward.

Looking at the Sharks roster, it has improved from last season. They’ll also get Alexander Barbanov back in the lineup who was sidelined since March of last year due to a lower-body injury. He was having his best NHL season to date before that with 47 points (15 goals, 32 assists) through 68 games. In addition to Barbanov, Luke Kunun who was also on their top line tore his ACL back in December of last year but is expected to be back for the start of the new season.

The additions of Anthony Duclair, Mike Hoffman, and Mikael Granlund should also strengthen their offense. Filip Zadina who was the No. 6 pick in the 2018 NHL Draft will also get a second chance in San Jose. He was placed on waivers this summer by Detroit after only having 7 points (3 goals, 4 assists) in 30 games last season. Only time will tell if he can turn things around and be a contributor to this team. He’s only 23 years old which is a positive so maybe a chance of sneery will be good for him.

San Jose also has a decent prospect pool highlighted by William Eklund (No. 7, 2021 NHL Draft) and Will Smith No. 4. 2023 NHL Draft).

Their goaltending is questionable given the tandem of Kappo Kahkonen and newly acquired Mackenzie Blackwood. Last season Kappo Kahkonen was one of many goalies for San Jose who combined for a 3.79 GAA and .881 Save Percentage ranking 30th and 32nd, respectively. If Blackwood can stay healthy, which is an if given his numerous injury issues, he should be able to win the starting job. He’s also shown that he’s the clear number-one goaltender out of the duo when he is healthy.

Pick(s):
- San Jose Sharks over 65.5 Points (-113) – FanDuel

Seattle Kraken

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 46-28-8 (100 Points – 4th)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 48-34
2022-23 O/U: 36-40

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +3500
- Conference Winners: +1700
- Odds to win the Division: +900
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-150), No (+120)
- Team Total Points: 94.5 (Over -110/ Under -120)

Key Additions:
- F – Kailer Yamamoto (one year, $1.5MM)
- F – Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (one year, 35+ contract, $775K)
- D – Brian Dumoulin (two years, $3.15MM)

Key Departures
- D – Morgan Geekie (Boston, two years, $4M)
- F – Ryan Donato (Chicago, two years, $4M)
- F – Daniel Sprong (Detroit, one year, $2M)
- F – Joonas Donskoi (Retired)
- D – Carson Soucy (Vancouver, three years, $9.75M)
- G – Martin Jones (Toronto, one year, $875k)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Jared McCann	Matthew Beniers	Jordan Eberle
Jaden Schwartz	Alexander Wennberg	Andre Burakovsky
Eeli Tolvanen	Yanni Gourde	Oliver Bjorkstrand
Brandon Tanev	Pierre-Edouard Bellemare	Kailer Yamamoto

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Vince Dunn	Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak	William Borgen
Brian Dumoulin	Justin Schultz

GOALIES
Philipp Grubauer	Chris Driedger

Team Preview:

After finishing 30th in the NHL last season, the Kraken made the playoffs for the first time in just their second year as a team. They upset the defending Stanley Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche in the first round and took the Dallas Stars to Game 7 in the second round.

However, their team will look a little bit different this season as they lost several key pieces in goalie Martin Jones, defenseman Carson Soucy, and forwards Ryan Donato, Morgan Geekie, and Daniel Sprong in free agency. However, they did add defensemen Brian Dumoulin and forwards Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Kailer Yamamoto.

After taking a massive step forward last year, Seattle will have much larger expectations this season. Now that they have gained some playoff experience as a team, we’ll see if they have what it takes to be a Stanley Cup contender.

One of the main questions heading into the season is the play of Philipp Grubauer. He struggled in their inaugural season with a 3.16 GAA and .889 save percentage. Last season, he finished with a 2.85 GAA and .895 save percentage in the regular season and a 2.99 GAA and .903 save percentage in the playoffs. If he can build off his performance in the playoffs, it might provide Seattle with that extra spark they need.

Pick(s):
- None

Vancouver Canucks

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 38-37-7 (83 Points – 6th)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 45-37
2022-23 O/U: 44-30

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +6000
- Conference Winners: +2500
- Odds to win the Division: +1400
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (+145), No (-180)
- Team Total Points: 88.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- D – Carson Soucy (three years, $3.25MM)
- D – Ian Cole (one year, $3MM)
- F – Teddy Blueger (one year, $1.9MM)
- F – Pius Suter (two years, $1.6MM)

Key Departures:
- F – Vitali Kravtsov (KHL)
- D – Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Florida, one year, $2.25M)
- D – Ethan Bear (unsigned FA)
- D – Travis Dermott (Toronto, two years, $3M)
- D – Kyle Burroughs (San Jose, three years, $3.3M)
- G – Collin Delia (Winnipeg, one year, $775k)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Anthony Beauvillier	Elias Pettersson	Andrei Kuzmenko
Ilya Mikheyev	J.T. Miller	Brock Boeser
Phil Di Giuseppe	Pius Suter	Conor Garland
Dakota Joshua	Teddy Blueger	Vasily Podkolzin

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Quinn Hughes	Carson Soucy
Ian Cole	Filip Hrone
Christian Wolanin	Tyler Meyers

GOALIES
Thatcher Demko	Arturs Silovs

Team Preview:

Rick Tocchet will begin his first full season as the Vancouver Canucks head coach. After some contention, he replaced Bruce Boudreau as head coach on January 22nd. Under Tocchet, the Canucks were 20-12-4 which was ultimately not good enough as Vancouver missed the playoffs for the third straight season.

The Canucks added defensemen Carson Soucy and Ian Cole and forwards Teddy Blueger and Pius Suter in free agency. Both Soucy and Cole should help the Canucks on the Penalty Kill which has been a major issue for them as they have ranked last in that category the past two seasons.

Offensively, they ranked in the top half of goals per game (13th) and power play percentage (11th). However, defensively they’ve struggled but with Tocchet taking over the reins they have improved slightly. Vancouver bought out the final four seasons of Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contract and signed two free agents in hopes of solving this issue.

The biggest question for them heading into this season relates to Thatcher Demko who suffered multiple injuries last year. They’ll need to stay healthy this season if they want to have success as their goaltender depth is weak with Spencer Martin and Artus Silovs.

Pick(s):
- Vancouver Canucks Under 88.5 Points (-111) – FanDuel

Vegas Golden Knights

2022-23 Regular Season Record/ Standings: 51-22-9 (111 Points – 1st)
2022-23 Puck Line (ATS): 43-39
2022-23 O/U: 35-41

2022-23 Betting Preview (via DraftKings):
- Stanley Cup Odds: +1200
- Conference Winners: +600
- Odds to win the Division: +240
- To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-600), No (+425)
- Team Total Points: 103.5 (Over -115/ Under -115)

Key Additions:
- D – Mason Geertsen

Key Departures:
- F – Reilly Smith (traded to Pittsburgh)
- F – Teddy Blueger (Vancouver, one year, $1.9M)
- F – Phil Kessel (unsigned FA)
- G – Jonathan Quick (Rangers, one year, $825k)
- G – Laurent Brossoit (Winnipeg, one year, $1.75M)

Projected Line-Up:

FORWARD LINES
Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Ivan Barbashev	Jack Eichel	Jonathan Marchessault
Brett Howden	Chander Stephenson	Mark Stone
Paul Cotter	William Karlsson	Mike Amadio
Will Carrier	Nicolas Roy	Keegan Kolesar

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Alec Martinez	Alex Pietrangelo
Brayden McNabb	Shea Theodore
Nicolas Hague	Zach Whitecloud

GOALIES
Adin Hill	Logan Thompson

Team Preview:

After missing the playoffs last year, the Vegas Golden Knights captured a Stanley Cup in just their fifth season as a franchise. Owner Bill Foley had set a goal of winning the Cup in six seasons before the team was announced and they were able to live up to that goal.

Their biggest loss up front was Reilly Smith who they traded to Pittsburgh, but they signed Ivan Barbashev to a new five-year deal on the same day. Barbashev was acquired from the Blues last February and was a massive contributor during their playoff run with 18 points (7 goals, 11 assists) in 22 games.

Adin Hill and Logan Thompson will be their two goalies this year which does raise some concern. Hill has never been a number one goalie in the NHL before and has never played more than 27 NHL games in a season. On the bright side, he was fantastic for them during the playoffs posting a 2.17 GAA and a .932 save percentage. Thomspon was great for the Golden Knights during his rookie campaign that was before he was injured.

Pick(s):
- None

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.

Expected Bets For – Episode 46 – Pacific Division Preview

By

Patrick Gates

-

September 11, 2023

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the Pacific Division and offer our thoughts on each team’s season points total.

Topics:

Introduction [0:00 – 1:20]
Team Previews
- Anaheim Ducks [1:20 – 8:55]
- Calgary Flames [8:56 – 19:00]
- Edmonton Oilers [19:01 – 30:24]
- Los Angeles Kings [30:25 – 42:13]
- San Jose Sharks [42:14 – 51:26]
- Seattle Kraken [51:27 – 1:01:18]
- Vancouver Canucks [1:01:19 – 1:09:20]
- Vegas Golden Knights [1:09:21 – 1:17:42]
Best Bets [1:17:42 – 1:18:48]
Closing Thoughts [1:18:49 – 1:20:42]

Twitter Handles:

Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

Cam Akers FreePlay Week 1

By

Eric Rocco

-

September 10, 2023

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LA Rams at Seattle -4.5 O/U 45.5

Cam Akers 2023. That’s it. That’s the tweet I think is the phrase. Or the X it is now called. This is his year, this is his backfield, this is his team. No competing with another RB, no splitting carries. He will be their workhorse in 2023. I was all over him to end the 2022 season, betting him over yards almost every week and I’m not stopping now. Six of the last eight weeks he was able to hit the 60-yard mark, getting 12 carries or more in 7 of the 8 and going over the century mark in his last THREE games. Landing Seattle week 1 could be the perfect opponent for him. In two games last season, he had 164 yards on 38 carries. Averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Let’s back Cam Akers over his rush total to kick off the season!

Akers over 64.5 rush yards (FanDuel) risk 0.77u to win 0.7u

NFL Week 1 Sunday Funday Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

September 10, 2023

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Titans vs Saints -3 O/U 42

Low total’s mean barking dogs. I do not understand why the Saints are laying this kind of chalk here. The Saints were a talented disappointment in 2022, but it wasn’t just the quarterback’s fault. Head Coach Dennis Allen played a pretty big part in some of the choke shows that we saw. Now what? They lost their offensive coordinator and they have a new quarterback in Derek Carr. Now I know that Derek Carr has had some great games in his career, but he also can easily become a turnover machine. The Saints are also without their stud RB and pass catching running back in Alvin Kamara. Now the Titans are not without their own issues. Starting with offensive line. The Titans had to revamp the O-line this year and this might be the reason why you see the line at three. Looking at both offensive lines, the Saints rank 30th at lineups while the Titans are 32nd. Not a huge difference. I think that Ryan Tannehill is just as good if not better than Derek Carr, and this team has the better RB in Henry and maybe the best WR in Hopkins. I will take Tennessee plus the points.

Titans +3 – 2 stars

Teaser: Browns to +8.5 with the Commanders to -1 – 2 stars – Bengals haven’t had a lot of practice time with Joe Burrow. The Commanders have a coach in Ron Rivera on the hot seat facing a rookie coach in Gannon.