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Sunday NBA Freeplay, Boston heads south to Miami

The Celtics head down to South Beach in a gigantic two games to zilch hole, but playing some better defense could lead to a more welcoming result for the Irish. The Heat have averaged 117 points in the first two games, while shooting 52% from beyond the arc in Game 1 and got a season high 25 points from Caleb Martin in Game 2. A lot of factors led to the over being 2-0 so far in this series. In game 1, both teams shot an extremely high % from the field, as well as a 7 game high in field goals made. Not to mention, Miami scored a whopping 46 points in the 3rd quarter. Then the pace definitively slowed down in game 2, yet the over scrapped and battled its way over the number. Including 36 fourth quarter points from the Heat, and 13 points in the final minute. Some might say, well it’s the final minute there are usually a lot of points, but not necessarily in a tight game. Which is what I foresee happening tonight. The last 4 match-ups between these two in Miami have led to under’s, and 2 of the 4 by a 20 point + margin. Point blank, Miami plays a physical, contested type of defense. They move the ball on offense at a snail’s pace, limiting possessions at both ends. Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have gone ice cold from downtown in this series, leaving all the work to Jason Tatum. I think this is going to be a slower paced game, with potentially a lot of bricks. All favoring the under. This will be a 2 unit play for me on the under, 214.

Preakness Stakes Preview & Picks – May 20th, 2023

The 148th running of the Preakness Stakes takes place today at Pimlico Race Course. The Preakness Stakes is the second leg of the American Triple Crown of horse racing.

Race Information:

  • Track: Pimlico Race Course
  • Location: Baltimore, Maryland, United States
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 13
  • Post Time: 7:01 PM ET
  • Length: 1 3/16 Mile
  • Purse: $1,500,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Daily Double/ Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

 

TV Schedule:

  • CNBC – 1:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 7:30 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Day: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 9 mp/h E, 57% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Evening: Overcast w/ Showers 61 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 70% Humidity, 42% Chance of Rain

 

Previous Winners & M/L Odds:

  • 2022: Early Voting
    • M/L Odds: 7-2
  • 2021: Rombauer
    • M/L Odds: 12-1
  • 2020: Swiss Skydiver *
    • M/L Odds: 6-1
  • 2019: War of Will
    • M/L Odds: 4-1
  • 2018: Justify **
    • M/L Odds: 1-2

 

* Swiss Skydiver was one of six fillies to have won the Preakness Stakes

** Justify was a Tripple Crown Winner

 

Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Preakness Stakes Records:

  • Most Wins by a Trainer:
    • 7, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2018)
    • 7, R. Wyndham Walden (1875, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1888)
  • Most Wins by a Jockey:
    • 6, Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1948, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1957)
  • Most Wins by an Owner:
    • 7, Calumet Farm (1941, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1956, 1958, 1968, 2013)

 

Preakness Stakes Storylines:

  • Mage (#3) will look to become the thirty-seventh horse to have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. If he’s able to do so, he’ll compete in the Belmont and try to become the fourteenth horse to win the Triple Crown.
  • Mage (#3) will be the only horse to run in the Preakness Stakes after competing in the Kentucky Derby. This is the smallest group of Derby horses in the race since the Triple Crown series went to its current format 54 years ago.
  • Bob Baffert, Trainer of National Treasure (#1), will make his first return to a Triple Crown race in two years. The last time he had a horse in the Preakness was Medina Spirit, two years ago. If National Treasure (#1) does go on to win, Baffert would break a tie with 19th-century trainer R. Wyndham Walden for the most Preakness victories in history.
  • Perform (#6) earned his berth in the Preakness with a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. His owners had to pay an extra $150,000 to get him in the field because he was not originally nominated for the Triple Crown series, but trainer Shug McGaughey said they did not hesitate.

 

Preakness Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:

Post Position Wins
1 12
2 12
3 12
4 14
5 13
6 16
7 14
8 10

 

Field:

Post Position Horse Odds
1 National Treasure 4-1
2 Chase the Chaos 50-1
3 Mage 8-5
4 CoffeewithChris 20-1
5 Red Route One 10-1
6 Perform 15-1
7 Blazing Sevens 6-1
8 First Mission 5-2

 

Horse Preview:

Name: National Treasure Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC, and Donovan, Catherine
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 5 1 1 2
2023 2 0 0 1
2022 3 1 1 1
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

National Treasure has yet to find the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden back in September of 2022 in a 6 1/2 Furlong Sprint at Del Mar. Following that race, he would go on to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and 3rd in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After that, they shortened him up and dropped him in class but it wasn’t successful as he ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. In his most recent race, he finished 4th in the Grade 1 RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby. He’s shown some improvement in his last two races posting some impressive speed figures and his workouts have been great as well. One thing to note is he didn’t get a great trip in either of those last two races as he was bumped in both of them. John Velazquez has ridden him in four of his five career starts and will retain the mount.

 

Name: Chase the Chaos Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Adam Ference & Bill Dory
Trainer: Ed Moger Jr.
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 8 3 2 1
2023 3 1 0 0
2022 5 2 2 1
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

Chase the Chaos has yet to win a graded stakes race in his eight career starts. In his most recent start, he ran 8th in the California Derby. He didn’t have a great start in that race but was never a threat. Before that, he finished 7th in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. His most recent win was three races ago in the El Camino Real Derby. That was the longest distance he ever ran and posted his best speed figure as well. While he did have success at a longer distance, I don’t think he has the speed to compete in this race. He’s also raced on a synthetic surface for the majority of his career. In his lone start on dirt, he failed to hit the board. Sheldon Russell will get his first career mount on this horse. TOSS

 

Name: Mage Odds: 3-1
Owner(s): OGMA Investments LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 4 2 1 0
2023 4 2 1 0
2022 0 0 0 0
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

Mage is the morning line favorite coming off a win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. In that race, he posted his best speed figure. Before that victory, he ran second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He lost to Forte, who was the Kentucky Derby favorite but was scratched late. In his last two races, he’s lengthened out in distance and has had success. He’s also been more of a closer as compared to a front-runner. There’s not a ton of early speed in this race so it’ll be interesting to see how Javier handles him in this race. There’s not much downside to this horse after the performance he put on in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Name: CoffeewithChris Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Salzman, Jr., John E., Wasserloos, Fred and Geruso, Anthony
Trainer: John E. Salzman, Jr.
Jockey: Jamie Rodriguez
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 12 3 3 2
2023 4 1 2 0
2022 8 2 1 2
Pimlico 1 1 0 0

 

CoffeewithChris placed 5th in the Federico Tesio Stakes in his last start behind fellow entrant Perfrom (1st). Before that, he ran second in the Private Terms Stakes. His last win was in the Miracle Wood Stakes which was run at a mile. In his two most recent races, he lengthened out and hasn’t had much success. He’s also yet to run in a graded-stakes race. There’s not much upside to this horse outside of him breaking his maiden at Pimlico. I’m expecting him to try and push the pace but I’m not sure he’ll be a factor outside of that.

 

Name: Red Route One Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 9 2 2 1
2023 4 1 2 0
2022 5 1 0 1
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

Red Route One won the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his last start. He posted a career-best speed figure at a mile and an eighth. Before that, he ran 6th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after getting off to a slow start. In his two races before that, he ran 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. I don’t think he has the speed needed to compete in this race but could be a factor in terms of exotics. Joel Rosario will retain the mount after winning with him in his last start.

 

Name: Perform Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Woodford Racing LLC, Lanes End Farm, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, and Edward J. Hudson Jr.
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: Feargal Lynch
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 7 2 1 1
2023 3 2 0 0
2022 4 0 1 1
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

Perform has won his last two races. In his most recent race, he won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park despite stumbling out of the gate. Before that, he won a Maiden Special Weight at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s lengthed out in both of those races and has become more of a closer. While his speed figures have improved, they are a concern. His workouts have also been an encouraging sign for this horse as well. I’m not sure he can win this race but I’ll most likely add him to a few exotics.

 

Name: Blazing Sevens Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): Rodeo Creek Racing LLC
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 7 2 1 1
2023 3 2 0 0
2022 4 0 1 1
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

Blazing Sevens finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes behind two Kentucky Debry entrants. Before that, he ran 8th in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes after being bumped at the start and was never a factor. His last win was four races ago in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. This horse is certainly a factor in his race given his ability to close. His last two workouts were also great so that’s another added factor. He’s also done well with a wet surface before so if that forecast does hold and we do get some rain, watch out.

 

Name: First Mission Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Brad Cos
Jockey: Luis Saez
Starts 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place
Life 3 2 1 0
2023 3 2 1 0
2022 0 0 0 0
Pimlico 0 0 0 0

 

First Mission has only raced three times in his career. In his last start, he won the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. In that race, he posted an impressive speed figure. Before that, he won a Maiden Special Weight at Fair Grounds. He’s shown a liking to the increase in distance winning both those races at a mile and a sixteenth. If he can get out of the gate clean, he is the horse to beat in this race.

 

Projected Pace:

  • Front Runners
    • CoffeewithChris (#4)
  • Off the Pace
    • First Mission (#8)
    • National Treasure (#1)
  • Middle/ Back of the Pact
    • Mage (#3)
    • Blazing Sevens (#7)
    • Chase the Chaos (#2)
    • Perform (#6)
  • Closers
    • Red Route One (#5)

 

Picks:

  • Exacta ($1 -> $5):
    • (#1 National Treasure) / (#3) Mage, (#4) CoffeewithChris, (#5) Red Route One (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Seven
  • Exacta ($1 -> $6):
    • (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens / (#1) National Treasure, (#3) Mage, (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens
  • Trifecta ($1 -> $12):
    • (#1 National Treasure) / (#3) Mage, (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens / (#3) Mage, (#4) CoffeewithChris, (#5) Red Route One, (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens
  • Trifecta ($1 -> $24):
    • (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens / (#1) National Treasure, (#3) Mage, (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens / (#1) National Treasure, (#3) Mage, (#4) CoffeewithChris, (#5) Red Route One, (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Sevens

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

The 2023 Preakness Stakes Plays – Sports Betting

We are back for the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico race track in Baltimore Maryland.  This race is a mile and 3/16th long which is above average, yet the shortest of the triple crown races.  The field here in the second leg of the triple crown is now seven horses deep with only one horse returning from the Kentucky Derby with his win in Mage.   The co-favorite First Mission, A Brad Cox horse, was scratched due to a bum ankle.  This scratch will significantly change the early odds listed here for this race, but that doesn’t mean that we do not have a chance at a decent score.

HORSE ODDS PROGRAM # PROJECTION
Mage 8-5 3 Key
First Mission SCR 8 SCR
National Treasure 4-1 1 Key
Blazing Sevens 6-1 7 Use
Red Route One 10-1 5 Use
Perform 15-1 6 Key
Coffeewithchris 20-1 4 Use
Chase The Chaos 50-1 2 Use
Today’s weather at Pimlico race track looks pretty good considering it might rain late in the day.   Even if it does, it shouldn’t mess up this track so much that it would become muddy.
Going down the line, my number one horse that I am keying in on is the one horse in National Treasure at early odds 4-1.   This Bob Baffert horse was the co-favorite in the Santa Anita derby.   He was bumped pretty hard coming out of the final turn at SA Derby, and I think that he has the speed to just keep on going in position 1.  National Treasure will have the blinkers on today which could be a good thing in this spot.   He should set the pace for this race.  The next key horse for me is the number three horse and Kentucky Derby winner in Mage at 8-5.   This thoroughbred is a closer and has done nothing wrong.  I am not overly impressed by the strength of this field here that he has to beat today at Pimlico.   My final key horse is the six horse in Perform at 15-1.   He will probably close around 8-1, but he has a good enough price for me to get behind.  Perform is a Shug McGaughey horse that would not be put into this position unless he could win.   Perform has won the last two of his races, and has looked pretty good in doing so.  He doesn’t have the speed figures to put him at better (or worse) odds, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t take a big step today in Baltimore.
Now there is a horse that really doesn’t belong in this field in Chase The Chaos.  This horse has only found success early at Canterbury Park in Minnesota, and after that on artificial turf.   This is a big change for him going back to dirt, and this horse looks very inferior to the rest.  In saying that, with a seven horse field, his price is just too good to not put at the end of your trifecta plays.  Here is how I am betting this race.   You can go half if this is past your unit size.
Total $244
Trifecta
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[1, 3] – 2nd[1, 3, 5, 6, 7] – 3rd[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
40 bets @ $2
Ticket total $80
Trifecta
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[6] – 2nd[1, 3, 5, 7] – 3rd[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7]
20 bets @ $1.00
Ticket total $20
Exacta
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[3] – 2nd[1, 5, 6, 7]
4 bets @ $10
Ticket total $40
Exacta
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[1, 6] – 2nd[1, 3, 5, 6, 7]
8 bets @ $5
Ticket total $40
Exacta Box
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[1, 3, 5, 6, 7]
20 bets @ $2
Ticket total $40
Superfecta
Pimlico, May 20, Race #13
1st[1, 3, 6] – 2nd[1, 3, 5, 6, 7] – 3rd[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] – 4th[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
240 bets @ $.1
Ticket total $24

 

Best of luck everyone!

Horse Racing Free Picks – Preakness Stakes And Saturday At Pimlico

Happy Horse Racing Saturday everyone. We’ve reached the second leg of The Triple Crown from Pimlico Raceway in Baltimore to see if Mage can capture the first two races and give us some drama heading to Belmont.

I am including picks here for the first 13 races on the card, if you’re playing the last stakes race and the late local card you’re likely drunk and chasing or an absolute die hard. (I’ll be playing them) The weather looks great so track conditions should be fast. The races get started early at 9:30 AM CDT so West Coasters make sure you set your alarms.  I’ll give you my pick to win with a brief analysis and my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.

Race 1 – Allowance – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse:$60,000 – Post Time 9:30 AM CDT

We kick the day off with some minimal winners in a turf sprint. I landed on the 5 Monster Mason with the hope that if he can clear the gate and hang with the early leaders. The horse has been wildly inconsistent, but has top speed ratings that rival the favorites and has better late pace than most of the field.

Win: 5 Monster Mason

Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-3-2-1

Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $64,000 – Post Time 10:05 CDT

Nice big field here for an early long race on the dirt. The favorite 5 Iywaan has certainly had the most trips into victory circle in the field, but is a closer and has had more success when he hasn’t had to push to keep up early. He hasn’t been able to rally from sub 48 1/2 Mile trips. I expect 3 Be Better and 7 Tate to push the pace on this one and it may be too much for the favorite. 3 Be Better has been better at this longer two turn distance as well and performed well on a muddy track last time and should be even better on this fast track.

Win: 3 Be Better

Top 4 if playing exotics: 3-7-5-6

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $57,000 – Post Time – 10:41 CDT

Not a ton of history in this group of Maidens. This one feels wide open. I like the 10 He’s Got Swagger to strut to a victory after just missing in a fast paced trip at Churchill on Oaks Friday.

Win: 10 He’s Got Swagger

Top 4 if playing exotics: 10-5-4-13

Race 4 – The Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored By Brandon and Diannah Perry To Benefit The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 11:16 CDT

The first stakes race of the day is a mouthful and also the first of three appearances by a Bob Baffert horse the 4 Arabian Lion who opens as a big 2/5 Favorite. The 4 gets Lasix for the first time and comes in after giving scratched Preakness hopeful First Mission all he could handle at the G3 Lexington Stakes. He takes a step down in class here and should be able to take care of this field. Only worry is that he has struggled in the stretch both times he has had Johnny V in the saddle. Hoping they have it figured out here. I’m all chalk here so only way to make money is probably to play the exacta’s or put him into a multi-race play.

Win: 4 Arabian Lion

Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-6-3-1

Race 5 – Allowance – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $60,000 – Post Time 11:51 CDT

One stakes race at a time I guess as we go back down here. The ladies take center stage  and it looks like we should see some early speed from 8 Cecilita and 9 Lifelovenlaughter as they try and get to the front from the outside. The 9 has some interesting metrics, but will be making her 3 year old debut against some older horses here. I think the early speed benefits the 6 Tequilera who was ridden slow last time out and couldn’t answer in deep stretch against horses who still had something left in the tank. Also watch the 7 Amani’s Image who comes back to distance after a one race sprint warm up in 2023. She had a 1:44 Flat trip at this distance last year.

Win: 6 Tequilera

Top 4 if playing exotics: 6-7-8-2

Race 6 – The Chick Lang Stakes Presented By Case Tractor (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 12:29 CDT

A small field dirt sprint here. Another Baffert Horse and another big favorite in the 1 Havnameltdown. He almost won the Saudi Derby when stretched out to a mile and already has a G2 and G3 victory under his belt while winning 4 of 5 out west. I think this horse is beatable though as the speed he’ll see here even from this small field is better than his last few trips. There will be strong pace up front here from the 2 Ryvit and 3 Frosted Departure. The 3 ran well in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day event after being bumped at the start. The best time at this distance is held by the 5 Super Chow, but he hasn’t seen the early speed coming his way either. This one is wide open folks. Whoever gets the best trip inside likely pulls this out.

Win: 2 Ryvit

Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-3-1-5

Race 7 – The Galorette Stakes Presented By Pepsi Zero Sugar (G3) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 1:08 CDT

Back to the ladies here in a G3 Turf race featuring some solid international visitors. Graham Motion has 3 horses in the race including the 2 Sopran Basilea (IRE) who was a G2 winner in Italy. She’s been off since October, but is in a barn who has hit 11 of the last 27 coming off layoffs between 6 months and 1 year. The 6 Bipartisanship (GB) who is also with Motion put up a fast time at this distance last trip at Keeneland. Chad Brown trained 1 Whitebeam (GB) lost by a neck in her American debut in a really slow paced trip, and should improve here with some acclimation.

Win: 2 Sopran Basilea

Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-1-6-5

Race 8 –  The Dinner Party Stakes Presented By Bulleit Bourbon (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 1:49 CDT

The 1 Atone showed up and closed big time to win in the G1 Pegasus World Cup in January, but then floundered in the G2 Muniz in March. He has had some rough starts, but does seem to bounc back. The 4 Hurricane Dream finished 10th in that same Pegasus race, but dominated a recent allowance. Another 3 entry race here for Graham Motion, but I think Michael Maker and 1 Atone when on their best is clearly the one to beat here.

Win: 1 Atone

Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 1-4-2-7

Race 9 – The Skipat Stakes Presented By Old Bay (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 2:31 CDT

Wide open ladies dirt sprint here. We should see the 5 Princess Kokachin go to the front right away with the hope of wiring the field as she did her last trip with Jevian Toledo on board. We should see the 3 I’m the Boss of Me join her at the front. I think those two will get tangled up too fast right away and let the 6 Gunning, 2 Beguine, and 9 Olivia Darling make a late move. 6 Gunning is the older half sister to Kentucky Derby winner Mage.

Win: 6 Guinning

Top 4 If Playing Exotics : 6-9-2-5

Race 10 – The Jim Mckay Turf Sprint Stakes Presented By Guinness – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:12 CDT

Well…the race sponsored by Guinness has a horse named 13 Beer Can Man. That’s all were gonna say about that horse. The 6 That’s Right will lead them out to something 21 and change and should be followed closely by favorites 1 Nothing Better and 3 Artemus Citylimits. They will be flying out the gate and I think that sets up nicely for the 5 Smokin’ Jay (Owner has gotta be a Packers Fan right). He put up his fastest time following a sub 21 1/4 two trips back and should get the same ride here with a big chance to close.

Win: 5 Smokin’ Jay

Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 5-1-3-10

Race 11 -The Maryland Sprint Stakes Presented By Big Ass Fans (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:53 CDT

The 8 Straight No Chaser will be gunning for the early lead from the outside as he did last trip with Johnny V who rode him wire to wire for a solid 1:09 Flat at this same distance. The favorite is the 7 Nakatomi, who hasn’t run his best yet this year and could certainly stall the 8 and the 10 Wondrwherecraigis from getting that early jump. If he does he could keep a pace to his liking. I like the idea of one of those further outside being able to wire this field though.

Win: 8 Straight No Chaser

Top 4 If Playing Exotics: 8-10-4-7

Race 12 – The James W. Murphy Stakes Presented By Four Seasons Of Baltimore – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 4:51 CDT

Playing favorite here as 9 Nagirroc looked good last time out trailing Mo Stash for a 2nd at Keeneland. He adds blinkers here from the outside and should find himself in a nice stalking position from the outside. He has plenty of speed to close on the rest of this underwhelming field.

Win: 9 Nagirroc

Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 9-1-4-5

Race 13 – The Preakness (G1) – 1 3/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse 1,500,000 – Post Time 6:01 CDT

Well here we are the second race of The Triple Crown The Preakness. In what has become a trend many Kentucky Derby Horses who did not win are skipping the Preakness to get a rest and tune up for either the Belmont or another stakes race. This however is the first time there is only one entrant from the Derby entered in the race. I’ve had to pivot here as I was originally on the 8 First Mission. He has been scratched with a hind leg injury. Bob Baffert is back as his two year suspension in Triple Crown races has come to an end, and his horse the 1 National Treasure comes in as the second favorite. He came in third at The Breeders Cup Juvenile to Forte and Cave Rock and certainly has the style and stamina to win this race. He will be looking to upset Kentucky winner 3 Mage. The 3 is a stalker and has done it well his last two times out. He’ll have to move a little quicker here with the slightly shorter race. Steve Asmussen’s 5 Red Route One and Chad Brown’s 7 Blazing Sevens are also stalkers like 3 Mage, but in the big races so far they haven’t really threatened. They’ll need a really hot pace up front and I don’t think they get it. 5 Red Route One did get a win in smaller stakes race last time out in a step down in class. I think Forte is the best juvenile in the country and 1 National Treasure showed to be almost his equal as did 3 Mage. 1 National treasure should come out to the lead with blinkers and the rail. 3 Mage will be more in touch with the pace and lead and shouldn’t have to come as wide as he did in the Kentucky Derby. This is a two horse race for me, but I think 1 National Treasure finally puts together the whole run he’s been waiting for and Baffert and Johnny V get it done here.

Win: 1 National Treasure

Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 1-3-5-7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MLB 5/19/23 Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

Cubs vs Phillies -125 O/U 9

The 19-24 Cubs have to win at some point right?   This team has a losing record for a few reasons.  First of all, they have been pretty bad in the clutch led by poor manager decisions from David Ross.   Lots of 1 – 2 run losses here.   If you look at the Cubs run differential, they rank 8th at +22.   This tells me that they are much better than what their record actually is showing.   The Phillies are -29 in run differential ranking 23rd.   Marcus Stroman takes the helm for the Cubbies today, and he still has good numbers at 3.24 ERA, 3.66 FIP even after a few recent blow ups.   Ranger Suarez is starting for the Phillies who has only four innings under his belt so far this year.   Last year he was pretty average at 3.65 ERA and a 3.87 FIP.   I think the Cubbies get it right today.

Cubs +110 – 1 star

Sportbook Review: BettorEdge

This will be the first of many reviews of sportsbooks. Now i should preface this, BettorEdge is not a book, it is an exchange. There are many common terms, peer to peer and betting exchange are the ones most commonly associated with these. Its similar to a book and therefore I am lumping it in the reviews.

It will graded in comparison to other exchanges, not directly against a book. I’ll explain a bit later why they shouldn’t be directly compared.

What is an Exchange?
If you are unfamiliar with exchanges, I’ll break it down. An exchange is when two players match their bets. Player A wants the New England Patriots at -3.5 while Player B wants the Jets at +3.5. Those bets are matched and going head to head. You are competing for each others money, not the user vs the book.

What is BettorEdge?
To Quote from their website:
“Where bettors compete against each other with no fees.

BettorEdge works differently than traditional sports betting, instead of betting against a sportsbook or “The House”, we match you up with other BettorEdge users.”

The main advantage with this is, you are playing someone else directly rather than a book. Books generally charge a 10% fee/juice/VIG to place a bet, i.e. -110. With BettorEdge, they charge no fee at all. Meaning you are getting the true odds.

All of BettorEdge’s lines are pulled from the same places the sportsbooks pull theirs.

BettorEdge Website

What is the advantage to BettorEdge?
The answer is simple, NO FEES. Why do no fees matter? To be profitable on -110 odds, you have to a 52.38 win % (same unit size). This would be the bare minimum. With BettorEdge, you have to have 50.01%.

They are also not regulated like a sportsbook so BettorEdge is in more states, because of this, 45 states to be exact.

The user can also change the line from presented odds. Meaning if in the above scenario, Player A wanted Patriots -6.5 instead of -3.5, they could raise the odds and put that line into the marketplace. Similar to an alternate line at a book, but some books restrict certain numbers and the user can not create the line/odds. The user is restricted to only what is offered at a book.

Another feature is, a user can tail or fade a user directly inside the platform.

BettorEdge also offers “EdgeCoins”. These are free coins when you sign up. for new bettors, these are no risk tokens with no value to help you learn how to bet. They are a great way to understand how BettorEdge works before fully diving in.

If you want to dive deeper into what BettorEdge advantages are.

What is the disadvantage to BettorEdge?
This is a little bit of a loaded question.

Betting exchanges as a mass introduction to the public are fairly new. Meaning there are less users. You need a user to take the other side of your bet.

Per my source, 80-90% of bets are filled. Per my experience, I have never had a bet unfilled. Why would some of the best go unfilled? Because it is an exchange. Like I mentioned before, users can manipulate the line. If there are multiple outlandish lines (which yes, users think they are slick and try and get +100 odds on -15 in NFL games) those will go unfilled. Smaller sports or more unique/exotic bets will go unfilled.

Another note on percent of bets filled, there’s no differentiation in whether the bet goes unfilled or is canceled by the user. So if a bet is placed and immediately canceled, it is considered, unfilled(apart of that 10-20% unfilled rate)

Exchanges at this point, just cant offer every line logistically. The amount of people betting on “smaller” sports just creates too much back end work for exchanges to create. For example, Alabama baseball was recently in the news for betting scandals. Alabama had one total bet and thats ultimately what caused the books to find out whats going on. Large books taking one bet just isn’t viable for exchanges to create lines for.

With the limited lines, you might miss out on certain props, i.e. Jameis Winston over/under sacks. If that is what you are looking for exchanges aren’t for you and most books aren’t either.

Why use BettorEdge over a Sportsbook?
Let’s make this very clear here. As of now, I wouldn’t personally take one over the other. Especially if you are a niche sports bettor as I mentioned college baseball example previously.

You should be using an exchange AND books when you are line shopping. Both should be tools in a profitable bettors belt. If you are able to get the best line at an exchange, this is your best option. If you are looking for a very niche market, this is probably not for you, and that is OKAY.

What lines do they offer?
BettorEdge offers most of the popular lines, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, Golf, UFC, EPL, UCL, Tennis, as well as a few others depending on season of the sport.

BettorEdge does have some exotic and prop plays. Superstar Points, Yards, etc. Other bets like win totals preseason.

In each event, you can see how many bet orders are available to take.

What makes BettorEdge different from other exchanges?
First and foremost, NO FEES, they are the only exchange as of right now (that I am aware of, that offers this). BettorEdge also offers more of a community feel. Inside the platform, a user can, create a post, tweet it, follow other users, be listed on the leaderboards for various performances, subscribe to podcast, enter competitions, and more.

Is there an App?
As of today, no. Currently on the list of things being built out. However, you can make a webpage app. Meaning your phone will create what looks like an app and take you directly to that page when you open it. Forward facing, it’s really no different for the user.

The webpage app looks great. Very easy to navigate. Super straight forward.
This is directly from my iPhone web app. It looks just like a sportsbook.

Is it safe?
Yes, BettorEdge uses the highest safety measures. I have deposited and withdrawn from BettorEdge. To add your bank information, there is multiple safety steps you must take. Bet matching is done on the backend and you’ll never know who you are playing against (outside of the competitions).

Rating –
1= This book should fold immediately and never attempt to offer lines again
10= nothing needs changed, this is the only book anyone needs
8/10 

There is some things I LOVE about BettorEdge. Not paying a fee to bet is worth a 6 alone. The look and feel is easy. The community feel, the ability to have transparency with other users and the competitive balance inside, is something no book will be able to offer. Ever.

Yes, I wish there were more line options. Yes, there will be more line options as more users join. Currently BettorEdge sits around 14,000 users. This is the biggest knock right now. More Users = More Lines

Thats really the biggest drawback. I took off 0.5 from the rating just because BettorEdge is not in an app, YET. It will be and as soon as it does, 8.5/10 will be locked in.

BettorEdge is my go to option while line shopping. If the line I am looking for is not there, then I will move on. I personally don’t prop shop here, personal preference and I’m aware most of what i’m looking for will be on niche books.

Hopefully, you will join me over at BettorEdge. BOL.

New users can sign up with my code and receive $20 on sign up: edge

BettorEdge Website
BettorEdge Twitter
BettorEdge TikTok
BettorEdge Instagram

 

Podcast 34 – 23 – The 2023 Preakness Stakes with Patrick Gates & Eric Rocco – NFC North Preview – UFC on ESPN – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE show for you today!  Patrick Gates @GatorBetting and Eric Rocco @TrustRocco from TheOddsBreakers come on to talk about leg two in the triple crown!   First, Kiev previews the NFC North and how it shapes up coming into the 2023 season.   Next, Eric and Patrick come on to discuss the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes!  What will the weather be like?   Who are the favorites?  How are the guys planning to attack this race?   We get into a lot of discussion and have a few horses we are keying in on, as well as a few that we are tossing off of our ticket.   Finally, Kiev gets into some UFC on ESPN Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill with some free plays!    Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds23” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

NHL Preview & Picks – May 18th, 2023

We only have one game taking place tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Matchups:

Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Series: Eastern Conference Finals – Game 1
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +120 +120 +1.5 (-210) o5.5 (-125)
Carolina Hurricanes -140 -140 -1.5 (+180) u5.5 (+105)

 

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Carolina Hurricanes (-140) – DraftKings [2 Units]

Carolina has been one of the best home teams as of late, especially in the postseason. While this team has suffered a bunch of key injuries heading into the playoffs, they have found ways to win. They’ve also gotten some depth production specifically from Jordan Martinook who was fantastic in their last series. Freddy Anderson has also been great for them going 5-0 with a 1.80 GAA and a .931 save percentage. He currently ranks 3rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +3.9. While Florida is continuing to embrace their underdog role, Carolina has the defensive capability to shut them down offensively. Despite the great story that Florida has going for them, I think the Hurricanes handle them at home and go on to win Game 1.

 

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

  • Jordan Martinook over 0.5 Points (+106) – FanDuel
    • Martinook has at least one point in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.
  • Jesper Fast over 0.5 Points (+125) – DraftKings
    • Fast has at least one point in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.
  • Jesperi Kotkaniemi over 0.5 Points (+116) – FanDuel
    • Kotkaniemi has at least one point in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.
  • Anthony Duclair over 0.5 Points (+120) – DraftKings
    • Duclair has at least one point in four of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Expected Bets For – Episode 38 – May 16th, 2023 (Conference Finals Preview)

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for May 18th/ 19th along with the Conference Finals.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Around the League
  • NHL Preview/ Picks – March 18th, 2023
    • Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
  • NHL Preview/ Picks – March 19th, 2023
    • Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights
  • NHL Conference Finals Playoff Preview
    • Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers
    • Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

PGA Championship – Preview & Picks

The season’s second Major is here, the PGA Championship. This will be the 105th edition of this event and the fourth time that it’s been held at Oak Hill Country Club. The last time Oak Hill hosted a Major tournament was the 2013 PGA Championship. However, the course has undergone a major renovation since then which I’ll get to later on in this article. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Jordan Spieth is looking to finally complete the career Grand Slam. This will be his seventh attempt to win the PGA Championship. His best finish at this event was back in 2015 when he finished 2nd at Whistling Straits. Spieth did compete in the PGA Championship back in 2013 when it was held at Oak Hill but he missed the cut.

Despite hailing from Northern Ireland, Rory McIlroy has a connection to this host venue. His wife is from Rochester, New York and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill. He hasn’t won a Major Championship since 2014 when he captured both the PGA and Open Championship. In addition to that 2014 victory, he won the PGA Championship once before in 2012.

World No. 1, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships (2021 U.S. Open). If he’s able to win the PGA Championship, he’ll only have one more event to win to complete the career Grand Slam (The Open Championship).

There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Xander Schauffele (World No. 5) has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Rounding out the top-10 in the OWGR is Max Homa who is also looking for his first Major Championship.

Lastly, the LIV Tour players have been allowed to play in this year’s event. Headlining the list of eighteen players from the LIV Tour includes Cameron Smith, defending Open Championship winner, Dustin Johnson, 2020 Masters Champion, and Phil Mickelson, three-time Masters champion. At the first Major tournament of the year, the Masters, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finished T2. Brooks has some history at this event winning the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: May 18th, 2023 – May 21st, 2023
  • Location: Rochester, New York, United States
  • Course: Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)
  • Course Type: Classical/ Technical
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,394 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • Fairways: Bentgrass/ Poa Annua
  • Rough: Tall fescue/ Kentucky bluegrass/ ryegrass mix
  • Bunkers: 78
  • Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12-13 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $15,000,000/ $2,700,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 600
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect:
    • Donald Ross (1926)
  • Recent Renovations:
    • Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1960s)
    • Tom Fazio (1988, 2002)
    • Andrew Green (2019)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Bethpage Black – 2019 PGA Championship – RESULTS
    • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • The Country Club – 2022 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • Kiawah Island – 2021 PGA Championship – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Donald Ross):
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – Donald Ross (1916)
    • Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship – Donald Ross (1926)
    • East Lake Golf Club – TOUR Championship – Donald Ross (1913 – Renovation)
  • Comparable Location (Rochester, New York):
    • Winged Foot – Mamaroneck, New York – 2020 U.S. Open
    • Bethpage Black – Long Island, New York – 2019 PGA Championship
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, Ohio – the Memorial Tournament
    • Oakdale Golf & Country Club – Toronto, Ontario, Canada – RBC Canadian Open
  • Comparable Yardage (7,394 Yards):
    • Detroit Golf Club – 7,370 Yards – Rocket Mortgage Classic
    • Tiburón Golf Club – 7,382 Yards – QBE Shootout
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,412 Yards – Cadence Bank Houston Open
    • Albany – 7,414 Yards – Hero World Challenge
  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass):
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
  • Comparable Average Green Size (4,500 sq. ft.):
    • Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge
    • TPC Southwind – 4,300 sq. ft. – FedEx St. Jude Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, May 18th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, May 19th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, May 20th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, May 21st, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Sunny 62 F, 8 mp/h N, 39% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 24% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Showers 71 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 53% Humidity, 42% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 14 mp/h W, 62% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Oak Hill Country Club was founded in 1901 with just nine holes laid out. The 85-acre property was nestled next to the Genesee River with the clubhouse being a converted farmhouse. Nine years later, the Oak Hill CC added an additional nine holes and built a new clubhouse as well. In 1921, the University of Rochester proposed a land swap that the Club hesitantly accepted relocating Oak Hill to a 355-acre plot of farmland in the town of Pittsford. With the newly acquired land and the University adding $360,000 to the deal, the Club now had the acreage and capital to expand. They brought in world-famous golf architect, Donald Ross to design two 18-hole golf courses, the East and the West Course.
The East Course has hosted all of the Major tournaments that have been held at Oak Hill Country Club. It’s also the only course in the United States that has hosted all six rotating men’s golf championships. In 1956, the course hosted its first Major, the U.S. Open. Following that, Oak Hill would go on to host the 1968 U.S. Open, the 1980 PGA Championship, the 1989 U.S. Open, and the 2003 PGA Championship. Outside of those events, the course has played host to the U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur. The most recent Major held at Oak Hill was the 2013 PGA Championship when Jason Duffer beat Jim Furyk by two strokes.
Since hosting the 2013 PGA Championship, Oak Hill underwent a major renovation. In 2019, they replaced old bentgrass/Poa Annua greens with pure bentgrass, restoring the shapes and contours of greens. In addition to that, numerous trees were removed along with several bunkers. New tees were also added increasing the length of the East Course.
The PGA Championship is one of the four Major Championships conducted by the Professional Golfers’ Association of America. The first PGA Championship was held in 1916 at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York. Until 1957, the format of the tournament was Match-Play. Starting in 1958, the format was changed to the standard 72-hole format of 18 holes per day for four days, Thursday to Sunday.
In 2017, the PGA Championship was moved to May making it the second Major of the season instead of the fourth.
The winner will receive the Wanamaker Trophy, named after businessman and golfer Rodman Wanamaker. He was one of the major factors in the formation of the Professional Golfers’ Association of America (PGA) and suggested the tournament first be held.
  • Most Tournament Wins (PGA Championship):
    • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980) & Walter Hagen (1921, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927)
  • 72-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 270, Jason Dufner (2013)
  • 18-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 63, Jason Dufner (2nd round, 2013 at Oak Hill)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oak Hill Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2013, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 4, No. 12, No. 13, & No. 14. Given the most recent renovation, all of those four holes, besides No. 14, have increased in distance. At the 2013 PGA Championship, we saw accuracy prevail over distance off the tee. However, I think it will be the opposite this year as they’ve widened the fairways and as I’ve mentioned before, added 231 yards to the course without changing the Par.

In terms of length, Oak Hill Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,394 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 5th of 46, with the average fairway width being 27.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,500 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 78 bunkers which ranks 22nd out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 155 yards and 230 yards. At the 2013 PGA Championship, No. 6 was a Par 3 and with the most recent renovation, No. 5 and No. 6 have been swapped. At that event, none of the four Par 3’s played under Par.

No. 5 ‘Little Poison’, 180 yards, Par 3: A two-tiered green surrounded by four deep bunkers requires an accurate tee shot. A shot that misses long will make it very challenging to save par due to the thick rough. When planning an approach, pay attention to the hole location to ensure the best chances for a scoring opportunity.

No. 11 ‘Creekside’, 245 yards, Par 3: This long par-3 is surrounded by three greenside bunkers—one short-left and two long-right—with Allen’s Creek protecting the front right. The large green offers a variety of hole locations, calling for players to be precise, which can be a tall order from such a long distance.

Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 ‘Bunker Hill’ is the shortest listed at 320 yards with the longest being No. 6 ‘Double Trouble’, playing 503 yards.

No. 1 ‘The Challenge’, 460 yards, Par 4: Ben Hogan once called this hole the toughest opening test in championship golf. The tee shot is from an elevated tee to a slight dogleg left. A great drive can take advantage of a fairway downslope at 290 yards. Allen’s Creek runs across the fairway hole at the 360-yard mark. The danger off the tee is out of bounds
to the right and three bunkers on the left. The green is well guarded by grass hummocks and a greenside bunker short right.

No. 18 ‘Goin’ Home’, 497 yards, Par 4: As beautiful as it is demanding, the final hole boasts a fairway only 20 yards wide at the 300-yard mark, with three deep bunkers on the right and trees on both sides. The green slopes severely from back to front and sits between three bunkers right and one left, making for a very challenging finish.

The two Par 5’s are No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’ playing 615 yards & No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’ playing 623 yards. In 2013, No. 4 was listed at 570 yards, and No. 13 was listed at 598 yards. Both of these holes have had some significant yardage added to them with the recent renovation. Back in 2013, both of these holes did have a scoring average under par. Given the additional yardage added, they are some of the longer Par 5’s players will face on Tour this season.

No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’, 615 yards, Par 5: The only par-5 on the front requires a very precise tee shot to set up a chance of reaching the green in two. Bunkers and out-of-bounds guard the right side while trees run along the left. The green slopes from back to front with deep bunkers short-left and short-right.

No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’, 623 yards, Par 5: Oak Hill’s most notable par-5 runs uphill toward the clubhouse. Allen’s Creek crosses the fairway at the 325-yard mark, which will force most players to lay up and face a long uphill approach. Two fairway bunkers guard the right side of the fairway 125 yards from a green that sits in a hollow, providing a beautiful amphitheater setting.

Hole Name Yards Par Hole Name Yards Par
1 The Challenge 460 4 10 Council Grove 430 4
2 Breather 405 4 11 Creekside 245 3
3 Vista 230 3 12 Leaning Oak 399 4
4 The High & Mighty 615 5 13 Hill of Fame 623 5
5 Little Poison 180 3 14 Bunker Hill 320 4
6 Double Trouble 503 4 15 The Plateau 155 3
7 Creek’s Elbow 461 4 16 Straight Away 458 4
8 Wayside 429 4 17 Twin Tees 502 4
9 Needles Eyes 482 4 18 Goin’ Home 497 4
Out 3,765 35 In 3,629 35
Total 7,394 70

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
  • Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 625 Yards (x2)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Major History
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s PGA Championship. Ninety-nine of the world’s top 100-ranked players are in the field this week. This is also the second event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

  • Scottie Scheffler (+700) has already won two elevated events this season including the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. After finishing T45 in his first start of the 2023 Season, Scheffler has yet to finish worse than T12! In his last three events, he’s been struggling on the green losing strokes putting in each of those tournaments. In terms of the PGA Championship, he missed the cut last year at Southern Hills but finished T8 at Kiawah Island and T4 at TPC Harding Park.
  • Jon Rahm (+800) has the most victories on the PGA Tour this season with 4. His most recent win was at the Masters Tournament. Since that victory, he finished T15 at the RBC Heritage and 2nd at the Mexico Open. Given the thick rough this week, his play around the green is a bit of concern as he’s lost strokes in that category in each of his last two starts. He has never won a PGA Championship with his best finish coming back in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club where he finished T4. Last year, he struggled at Southern Hills finishing T48.
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400) won two PGA Championships already in 2014 at Valhalla Golf Club and in 2012 at Kiawah Island. He started the season off strong winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina but has yet to win another event since then. However, he did finish T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. At the Masters, Rory struggled missing the cut. He did play in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill finishing T8.
  • Xander Schauffele (+1600) has been trending towards a win lately finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts.  While Xander has yet to win a Major, his style of play should fit Oak Hill well. His ball striking has been phenomenal this year gaining strokes at every event besides one. Xander’s best finish at the PGA Championship was back in 2020 at TPC Harding Park (T10).
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600) has only missed the cut once this season which was at the WM Phoenix Open. Following that event, Cantlay has only finished outside the top 20 once in his eight starts since then. In his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has his worst ball-striking performance of the year losing -0.44 strokes on approach. His best finish in a PGA Championship was in 2019 at Bethpage Black (T3).

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field:
    • Justin Thomas (’22. ’17), Phil Mickelson (’21, ’05), Collin Morikawa (’20), Brooks Koepka (’19, ’18), Jimmy Walker (’16), Jason Day (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14, ’12), Keegan Bradley (’11), Pádraig Harrington (’08)
  • LIV Players in the field (18):
    • Abraham Ancer, Dean Burmester, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Sihwan Kim, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Brendan Steele, and Harold Varner III.
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • Jason Dufner, Martin Kaymer, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, John Daly

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Adam Scott: T5
  • Jason Day: T8
  • Rory McIlroy: T8
  • Dustin Johnson: T8
  • Zach Johnson: T8
  • Hideki Matsuyama: T19
  • Rickie Fowler: T19
  • Keegan Bradley: T19

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Jordan Spieth: MC
  • Russell Henley: MC
  • Alexander Noren: MC
  • Brooks Koepka: 70
  • Phil Mickelson: 72

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Justin Thomas (-6) – Southern Hills Country Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) –  Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course)
    • Price: 250-1
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) – TPC Harding Park
    • Price: 35-1
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) – Bethpage Black Course
    • Price: 11-1
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Bellerive Country Club
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2013: Jason Dufner (-10) – Oak Hill Country Club
    • Price: 40-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Xander Schauffele (+1900) – PointsBet
    • Risk 0.43 to win 8.17 Units
  • Brooks Koepka (+2200) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.24 Units
  • Tony Finau (+2900) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units

Tony Finau won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago outdueling World No.1 Jon Rahm down the stretch. With that victory, he has now won twice on the PGA Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T23 gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. One key factor for Finau this week will be his play Around the Green, a category in which he ranks 1st in strokes gained on the Tour. The rough this week is extremely penal and his ability to get up and down in those tricky areas should give him an advantage. His play has been trending in the right direction and given his newfound confidence, I think he has a shot to compete this week.

  • Rickie Fowler (+7500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

Rickie Fowler is one of the few players in the field to have played in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill Country Club. He played well in that event finishing T19. This season, Rickie has returned to form playing some great golf. His ball striking has been great, gaining strokes on approach in every event he’s played in this season. In his last five starts, he’s finished inside the top 20 each time and has been trending in the right direction. His length off the tee should allow him to compete this week and when you add his iron play into the mix, I think he has a shot. While he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2019, this could be his coming out party. At 75-1 on FanDuel, it’s a great price when other books have him as low as 50-1.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Justin Thomas (+120) – BetRivers/ Caesars
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Justin Thomas will look to defend his title this year at Oak Hill. Last year at Southern Hills, he had an improbable victory. While he hasn’t been great this season he does have nine top-25 finishes. After he missed the cut at the Masters, he’s rebounded well finishing T25 and T14 in his last two starts. He’s one of the more elite ball strikers on Tour and should be in the mix.

  • Dustin Johnson (+135) – BetRivers
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Dustin Johnson struggled at Augusta earlier this year finishing T48th, losing strokes putting and around the green. However, he did win his most recent start on the LIV Tour which has hopefully helped his confidence coming into Oak Hill. He did play at the 2013 PGA Championship held here and finished T8. His distance off the tee always gives him an advantage and given his recent play following the Masters, I think he has a shot to compete.

  • Cameron Young (+140) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+160) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Tyrrell Hatton comes into the PGA Championship in great form, finishing T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks well in several key categories this week including SG: Tee-to-Green (6th), SG: Off-the-Tee (11th), and SG: Approach (11th). Hatton has had issues with his short game this year but has gained strokes Around-the-Green in each of his last three events. He’s also played well in the last few Major Championships and given the state of his current game, he should have some success this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Tommy Fleetwood is coming off two strong performances finishing T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T15 at the RBC Heritage. His play has been trending in the right direction, specifically his iron play. He still has the distance off the tee to compete at a course like Oak Hill. Given his recent play and performance at Augusta earlier this year, I think Fleetwood can be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 6.19 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

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