Home Blog Page 191

PGA Championship – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
-

The season’s second Major is here, the PGA Championship. This will be the 105th edition of this event and the fourth time that it’s been held at Oak Hill Country Club. The last time Oak Hill hosted a Major tournament was the 2013 PGA Championship. However, the course has undergone a major renovation since then which I’ll get to later on in this article. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Jordan Spieth is looking to finally complete the career Grand Slam. This will be his seventh attempt to win the PGA Championship. His best finish at this event was back in 2015 when he finished 2nd at Whistling Straits. Spieth did compete in the PGA Championship back in 2013 when it was held at Oak Hill but he missed the cut.

Despite hailing from Northern Ireland, Rory McIlroy has a connection to this host venue. His wife is from Rochester, New York and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill. He hasn’t won a Major Championship since 2014 when he captured both the PGA and Open Championship. In addition to that 2014 victory, he won the PGA Championship once before in 2012.

World No. 1, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships (2021 U.S. Open). If he’s able to win the PGA Championship, he’ll only have one more event to win to complete the career Grand Slam (The Open Championship).

There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Xander Schauffele (World No. 5) has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Rounding out the top-10 in the OWGR is Max Homa who is also looking for his first Major Championship.

Lastly, the LIV Tour players have been allowed to play in this year’s event. Headlining the list of eighteen players from the LIV Tour includes Cameron Smith, defending Open Championship winner, Dustin Johnson, 2020 Masters Champion, and Phil Mickelson, three-time Masters champion. At the first Major tournament of the year, the Masters, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finished T2. Brooks has some history at this event winning the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: May 18th, 2023 – May 21st, 2023
  • Location: Rochester, New York, United States
  • Course: Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)
  • Course Type: Classical/ Technical
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,394 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • Fairways: Bentgrass/ Poa Annua
  • Rough: Tall fescue/ Kentucky bluegrass/ ryegrass mix
  • Bunkers: 78
  • Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12-13 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $15,000,000/ $2,700,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 600
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect:
    • Donald Ross (1926)
  • Recent Renovations:
    • Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1960s)
    • Tom Fazio (1988, 2002)
    • Andrew Green (2019)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Bethpage Black – 2019 PGA Championship – RESULTS
    • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • The Country Club – 2022 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • Kiawah Island – 2021 PGA Championship – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Donald Ross):
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – Donald Ross (1916)
    • Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship – Donald Ross (1926)
    • East Lake Golf Club – TOUR Championship – Donald Ross (1913 – Renovation)
  • Comparable Location (Rochester, New York):
    • Winged Foot – Mamaroneck, New York – 2020 U.S. Open
    • Bethpage Black – Long Island, New York – 2019 PGA Championship
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, Ohio – the Memorial Tournament
    • Oakdale Golf & Country Club – Toronto, Ontario, Canada – RBC Canadian Open
  • Comparable Yardage (7,394 Yards):
    • Detroit Golf Club – 7,370 Yards – Rocket Mortgage Classic
    • Tiburón Golf Club – 7,382 Yards – QBE Shootout
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,412 Yards – Cadence Bank Houston Open
    • Albany – 7,414 Yards – Hero World Challenge
  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass):
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
  • Comparable Average Green Size (4,500 sq. ft.):
    • Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge
    • TPC Southwind – 4,300 sq. ft. – FedEx St. Jude Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, May 18th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, May 19th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, May 20th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, May 21st, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Sunny 62 F, 8 mp/h N, 39% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 24% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Showers 71 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 53% Humidity, 42% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 14 mp/h W, 62% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Oak Hill Country Club was founded in 1901 with just nine holes laid out. The 85-acre property was nestled next to the Genesee River with the clubhouse being a converted farmhouse. Nine years later, the Oak Hill CC added an additional nine holes and built a new clubhouse as well. In 1921, the University of Rochester proposed a land swap that the Club hesitantly accepted relocating Oak Hill to a 355-acre plot of farmland in the town of Pittsford. With the newly acquired land and the University adding $360,000 to the deal, the Club now had the acreage and capital to expand. They brought in world-famous golf architect, Donald Ross to design two 18-hole golf courses, the East and the West Course.
The East Course has hosted all of the Major tournaments that have been held at Oak Hill Country Club. It’s also the only course in the United States that has hosted all six rotating men’s golf championships. In 1956, the course hosted its first Major, the U.S. Open. Following that, Oak Hill would go on to host the 1968 U.S. Open, the 1980 PGA Championship, the 1989 U.S. Open, and the 2003 PGA Championship. Outside of those events, the course has played host to the U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur. The most recent Major held at Oak Hill was the 2013 PGA Championship when Jason Duffer beat Jim Furyk by two strokes.
Since hosting the 2013 PGA Championship, Oak Hill underwent a major renovation. In 2019, they replaced old bentgrass/Poa Annua greens with pure bentgrass, restoring the shapes and contours of greens. In addition to that, numerous trees were removed along with several bunkers. New tees were also added increasing the length of the East Course.
The PGA Championship is one of the four Major Championships conducted by the Professional Golfers’ Association of America. The first PGA Championship was held in 1916 at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York. Until 1957, the format of the tournament was Match-Play. Starting in 1958, the format was changed to the standard 72-hole format of 18 holes per day for four days, Thursday to Sunday.
In 2017, the PGA Championship was moved to May making it the second Major of the season instead of the fourth.
The winner will receive the Wanamaker Trophy, named after businessman and golfer Rodman Wanamaker. He was one of the major factors in the formation of the Professional Golfers’ Association of America (PGA) and suggested the tournament first be held.
  • Most Tournament Wins (PGA Championship):
    • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980) & Walter Hagen (1921, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927)
  • 72-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 270, Jason Dufner (2013)
  • 18-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 63, Jason Dufner (2nd round, 2013 at Oak Hill)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oak Hill Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2013, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 4, No. 12, No. 13, & No. 14. Given the most recent renovation, all of those four holes, besides No. 14, have increased in distance. At the 2013 PGA Championship, we saw accuracy prevail over distance off the tee. However, I think it will be the opposite this year as they’ve widened the fairways and as I’ve mentioned before, added 231 yards to the course without changing the Par.

In terms of length, Oak Hill Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,394 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 5th of 46, with the average fairway width being 27.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,500 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 78 bunkers which ranks 22nd out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 155 yards and 230 yards. At the 2013 PGA Championship, No. 6 was a Par 3 and with the most recent renovation, No. 5 and No. 6 have been swapped. At that event, none of the four Par 3’s played under Par.

No. 5 ‘Little Poison’, 180 yards, Par 3: A two-tiered green surrounded by four deep bunkers requires an accurate tee shot. A shot that misses long will make it very challenging to save par due to the thick rough. When planning an approach, pay attention to the hole location to ensure the best chances for a scoring opportunity.

No. 11 ‘Creekside’, 245 yards, Par 3: This long par-3 is surrounded by three greenside bunkers—one short-left and two long-right—with Allen’s Creek protecting the front right. The large green offers a variety of hole locations, calling for players to be precise, which can be a tall order from such a long distance.

Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 ‘Bunker Hill’ is the shortest listed at 320 yards with the longest being No. 6 ‘Double Trouble’, playing 503 yards.

No. 1 ‘The Challenge’, 460 yards, Par 4: Ben Hogan once called this hole the toughest opening test in championship golf. The tee shot is from an elevated tee to a slight dogleg left. A great drive can take advantage of a fairway downslope at 290 yards. Allen’s Creek runs across the fairway hole at the 360-yard mark. The danger off the tee is out of bounds
to the right and three bunkers on the left. The green is well guarded by grass hummocks and a greenside bunker short right.

No. 18 ‘Goin’ Home’, 497 yards, Par 4: As beautiful as it is demanding, the final hole boasts a fairway only 20 yards wide at the 300-yard mark, with three deep bunkers on the right and trees on both sides. The green slopes severely from back to front and sits between three bunkers right and one left, making for a very challenging finish.

The two Par 5’s are No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’ playing 615 yards & No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’ playing 623 yards. In 2013, No. 4 was listed at 570 yards, and No. 13 was listed at 598 yards. Both of these holes have had some significant yardage added to them with the recent renovation. Back in 2013, both of these holes did have a scoring average under par. Given the additional yardage added, they are some of the longer Par 5’s players will face on Tour this season.

No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’, 615 yards, Par 5: The only par-5 on the front requires a very precise tee shot to set up a chance of reaching the green in two. Bunkers and out-of-bounds guard the right side while trees run along the left. The green slopes from back to front with deep bunkers short-left and short-right.

No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’, 623 yards, Par 5: Oak Hill’s most notable par-5 runs uphill toward the clubhouse. Allen’s Creek crosses the fairway at the 325-yard mark, which will force most players to lay up and face a long uphill approach. Two fairway bunkers guard the right side of the fairway 125 yards from a green that sits in a hollow, providing a beautiful amphitheater setting.

Hole Name Yards Par Hole Name Yards Par
1 The Challenge 460 4 10 Council Grove 430 4
2 Breather 405 4 11 Creekside 245 3
3 Vista 230 3 12 Leaning Oak 399 4
4 The High & Mighty 615 5 13 Hill of Fame 623 5
5 Little Poison 180 3 14 Bunker Hill 320 4
6 Double Trouble 503 4 15 The Plateau 155 3
7 Creek’s Elbow 461 4 16 Straight Away 458 4
8 Wayside 429 4 17 Twin Tees 502 4
9 Needles Eyes 482 4 18 Goin’ Home 497 4
Out 3,765 35 In 3,629 35
Total 7,394 70

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
  • Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 625 Yards (x2)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Major History
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s PGA Championship. Ninety-nine of the world’s top 100-ranked players are in the field this week. This is also the second event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

  • Scottie Scheffler (+700) has already won two elevated events this season including the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. After finishing T45 in his first start of the 2023 Season, Scheffler has yet to finish worse than T12! In his last three events, he’s been struggling on the green losing strokes putting in each of those tournaments. In terms of the PGA Championship, he missed the cut last year at Southern Hills but finished T8 at Kiawah Island and T4 at TPC Harding Park.
  • Jon Rahm (+800) has the most victories on the PGA Tour this season with 4. His most recent win was at the Masters Tournament. Since that victory, he finished T15 at the RBC Heritage and 2nd at the Mexico Open. Given the thick rough this week, his play around the green is a bit of concern as he’s lost strokes in that category in each of his last two starts. He has never won a PGA Championship with his best finish coming back in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club where he finished T4. Last year, he struggled at Southern Hills finishing T48.
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400) won two PGA Championships already in 2014 at Valhalla Golf Club and in 2012 at Kiawah Island. He started the season off strong winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina but has yet to win another event since then. However, he did finish T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. At the Masters, Rory struggled missing the cut. He did play in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill finishing T8.
  • Xander Schauffele (+1600) has been trending towards a win lately finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts.  While Xander has yet to win a Major, his style of play should fit Oak Hill well. His ball striking has been phenomenal this year gaining strokes at every event besides one. Xander’s best finish at the PGA Championship was back in 2020 at TPC Harding Park (T10).
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600) has only missed the cut once this season which was at the WM Phoenix Open. Following that event, Cantlay has only finished outside the top 20 once in his eight starts since then. In his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has his worst ball-striking performance of the year losing -0.44 strokes on approach. His best finish in a PGA Championship was in 2019 at Bethpage Black (T3).

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field:
    • Justin Thomas (’22. ’17), Phil Mickelson (’21, ’05), Collin Morikawa (’20), Brooks Koepka (’19, ’18), Jimmy Walker (’16), Jason Day (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14, ’12), Keegan Bradley (’11), Pádraig Harrington (’08)
  • LIV Players in the field (18):
    • Abraham Ancer, Dean Burmester, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Sihwan Kim, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Brendan Steele, and Harold Varner III.
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • Jason Dufner, Martin Kaymer, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, John Daly

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Adam Scott: T5
  • Jason Day: T8
  • Rory McIlroy: T8
  • Dustin Johnson: T8
  • Zach Johnson: T8
  • Hideki Matsuyama: T19
  • Rickie Fowler: T19
  • Keegan Bradley: T19

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Jordan Spieth: MC
  • Russell Henley: MC
  • Alexander Noren: MC
  • Brooks Koepka: 70
  • Phil Mickelson: 72

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Justin Thomas (-6) – Southern Hills Country Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) –  Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course)
    • Price: 250-1
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) – TPC Harding Park
    • Price: 35-1
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) – Bethpage Black Course
    • Price: 11-1
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Bellerive Country Club
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2013: Jason Dufner (-10) – Oak Hill Country Club
    • Price: 40-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Xander Schauffele (+1900) – PointsBet
    • Risk 0.43 to win 8.17 Units
  • Brooks Koepka (+2200) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.24 Units
  • Tony Finau (+2900) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units

Tony Finau won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago outdueling World No.1 Jon Rahm down the stretch. With that victory, he has now won twice on the PGA Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T23 gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. One key factor for Finau this week will be his play Around the Green, a category in which he ranks 1st in strokes gained on the Tour. The rough this week is extremely penal and his ability to get up and down in those tricky areas should give him an advantage. His play has been trending in the right direction and given his newfound confidence, I think he has a shot to compete this week.

  • Rickie Fowler (+7500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

Rickie Fowler is one of the few players in the field to have played in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill Country Club. He played well in that event finishing T19. This season, Rickie has returned to form playing some great golf. His ball striking has been great, gaining strokes on approach in every event he’s played in this season. In his last five starts, he’s finished inside the top 20 each time and has been trending in the right direction. His length off the tee should allow him to compete this week and when you add his iron play into the mix, I think he has a shot. While he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2019, this could be his coming out party. At 75-1 on FanDuel, it’s a great price when other books have him as low as 50-1.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Justin Thomas (+120) – BetRivers/ Caesars
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Justin Thomas will look to defend his title this year at Oak Hill. Last year at Southern Hills, he had an improbable victory. While he hasn’t been great this season he does have nine top-25 finishes. After he missed the cut at the Masters, he’s rebounded well finishing T25 and T14 in his last two starts. He’s one of the more elite ball strikers on Tour and should be in the mix.

  • Dustin Johnson (+135) – BetRivers
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Dustin Johnson struggled at Augusta earlier this year finishing T48th, losing strokes putting and around the green. However, he did win his most recent start on the LIV Tour which has hopefully helped his confidence coming into Oak Hill. He did play at the 2013 PGA Championship held here and finished T8. His distance off the tee always gives him an advantage and given his recent play following the Masters, I think he has a shot to compete.

  • Cameron Young (+140) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+160) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Tyrrell Hatton comes into the PGA Championship in great form, finishing T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks well in several key categories this week including SG: Tee-to-Green (6th), SG: Off-the-Tee (11th), and SG: Approach (11th). Hatton has had issues with his short game this year but has gained strokes Around-the-Green in each of his last three events. He’s also played well in the last few Major Championships and given the state of his current game, he should have some success this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Tommy Fleetwood is coming off two strong performances finishing T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T15 at the RBC Heritage. His play has been trending in the right direction, specifically his iron play. He still has the distance off the tee to compete at a course like Oak Hill. Given his recent play and performance at Augusta earlier this year, I think Fleetwood can be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 6.19 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

Tuesday Free Play – Runs And Fans: Counting to Ten in Oakland

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Happy Tuesday y’all! We’re riding a nice hot streak right now with a 30-14 run currently going in MLB. You can find all my plays available here at TheOddsbreakers.com. Also Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you have any questions regarding anything baseball and I’ll always let you know what I’m thinking. Let’s take a look at tonight’s featured game.

My Analysis turns to the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum where the Oakland/Las Vegas Athletics will host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at 9:40 ET. The current lines are sitting at Arizona -153/ Oakland +133 with the Over/Under at 9.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 69 degrees under clear skies with a slight breeze blowing out to right field.

Young Left-Hander Kyle Muller will take the bump for the A’s. He has been battered around so far to start his time in Oakland to the tune of a 7.34 ERA. Out of seven games started so far this season he has allowed less than 4 Earned Runs only twice against Cleveland and Cincinnati. Ohio teams haven’t exactly been piling on the runs this year. Muller has been hurt by a .364 BABIP against, but part of the reason that number is so high is that his hard contact rate is over 43% according to Statcast. The Diamondbacks have a couple of right handed sluggers in Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. that can hammer lefties. The D-Backs as a whole are sporting a .731 OPS against left-handers. Once they chase Muller  they’ll get a look at the Athletics bullpen and their 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Only three relievers have a sub 5.00 ERA for the A’s and two of them pitched last night so I think we’ll see the bottom of the bullpen barrel and likely see it early.

Fellow Left-Hander Tommy Henry will start for the Snakes. He has a 4.43 ERA, but a 6.26 xFIP. He’s also striking out only 3.63 batters per nine innings so far. Henry has been decent his last two trips out against the Giants and Nationals holding each of them to 2 Earned Runs over 6+ innings. He is due for regression as outlined above as hitters have a .278 BABIP against him and his HR/FB& is only 5.9% thus far. As bad as Oakland has been they are actually hitting lefties well to the tune of a .750 OPS. A lot of that has to do with Brent Rooker and his breakout so far. He has 5 Home Runs and is sporting a 1.169 OPS against southpaws. Esteury Ruiz, Shea Langeliers, and Ramon Laureano also hit lefties well for Oakland. The Arizona bullpen has been better than advertised, but they are burned out. Kyle Nelson is ready to go, but their top two options Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro have both pitched in 3 of 4 and Castro in back to back. They will be turning elsewhere once this game gets deeper.

Okay, The A’s offense is putrid as they only average 3.74 runs per game however the Snakes are 7th in MLB at 5.10 Runs per game. Earned runs against the A’s are by far the worst at 7.05 (This is crazy). The Diamandbacks are 23rd at 4.50 Earned Runs per game. Oakland is a pitcher’s park, but tonight those pitchers are just plain bad. The balls were juiced across the league last night almost everywhere except Oakland and I think it balances out tonight.

Gimme the Over 9.5 Runs for 1 Unit

 

MLB 5/16/23 Terrific Tuesday Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Royals vs Padres -201 O/U 8.5

Normally I do not love laying chalk quite this heavy, but this is a situation where the Padres flat out should overpower this bad Royals team.   The Padres are getting healthier as of late, and are striving to get back to .500 in their division.   Seth Lugo will take the helm today for the Dads boasting a nice 3.18 ERA over 39 innings with a so so FIP of 3.96.   On the other side, Brady Singer is pitching for the Royals, and he has some serious control problems this year at a 7.71 ERA and a 5.02 FIP.  Neither Bullpen is all that great, but I could certainly see the Padres capitalizing early on Singers struggles.   The Royals are a terrible batting team against right handed pitching ranking 28th in the league while the Padres rank 21st with most of those games played without their star player Fernando Tatis.   Now that Fernando has been back, he is sitting pretty with an OBP of .350 and and OPS of .868.   I am laying the juice here at -201.  I would also consider a team total over 4.5 -126.

Padres -201 – 1 star

UFC Charlotte On ABC 4 – Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

51-35-1 up 13 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 5-10-23!

16-7 up 8 units in 2023 NBA Thus Far on 5-10-23!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Anthony Smith vs Johnny Walker -125

This is gonna be a fun fight between a legitimate contender in Anthony Smith and a firecracker of a fighter Johnny Walker in the light heavyweight division.   Anthony smith is a very experienced 34 year old who is 36-17.   He usually KO’s or Submits his opponent with 23 total finishes.   Johnny Walker is built of the same breed at 6’5 who has finished 19 of his 20 wins inside the distance.   Walker was entering contender status back in 2019 until he lost four of his next fiver fights.  Three of them was in the first round.   The problem with a guy like walker is that he forgets to keep his distance and tends to get popped.   Anthony Smith is the more calculated fighter who picks his moments but will use his legs wisely if need.   Looking at each fighters strength of schedule, it isn’t even close with Smith’s loss last year to Magomed Ankalaev due to a broken ankle that quietly happened in the first round.   His other fights include a common win vs Ryan Spann, wins vs Jimmy Crute, Devin Clark and Volken Oezdemir as well as good losses vs Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksander Rakic and Thiago Santos.   Anthony has fought the best in the weight class.  Minus Ryan Spann, Johnny doesn’t really have any big wins in this weight class.  Walker’s toughest competition was to current Champ Jamahal Hill, and his worst loss over the past 4 years was to Corey Anderson by KO.   The big problem with Walker is that he has a glass jaw, and that doesn’t bode well when it comes to fighting a guy of Anthony Smith’s style stature.  I think that Smith should be the favorite, yet you can get him as a dog right now at +105.   Take the more experience Smith to bounce back in this fight and become a top contender once again in the Light Heavyweight class.

Anthony Smith +105 – 2 stars

MLB 5/12/23 Freebie Friday – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Braves vs Blue Jays +138 O/U 8.5

This is going to be a fun one with two strong teams facing off, but why is the Braves a big road favorite here?   Simple answer is that Cy Young leading Spencer Strider is at the helm boasting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.81 FIP.   15.08 K/9 looks unreal as well.  He is facing the ever so struggling Chris Bassitt who has a rough 4.38 ERA and a shameful 5.33 FIP.   Atlanta is the superior team here, and they also have the superior bullpen, but I am not even going to let that factor in.   Take the Braves 1st 5 -.5 runs at -110 and you might cash that baby with a goose egg on the other side.  Eh?

Braves 1st 5 -.5 -110 – 1 star

Plan of Attack: Belmont Park’s Late Afternoon Racing

By
Eric Rocco
-

Belmont Park Thursday, May 11th, 2023

Let’s get a little late afternoon horse action on this Thursday. Now I will state now before you dive into my article, it’s fairly chalky. Meaning, it looks like there could be quite a few favorites winning on this card. If you’re looking for monster payouts this is probably not your day, if you’re looking to cash some tickets and build your bankroll, LETS GO! I believe I have encountered some ways to make us money today, with fairly small multi-race bets keying these favorites.

I will most definitely have Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Articles available for purchase next Friday and Saturday! Be on the lookout on how to get those in the coming days.

Race 1: Picks: #5-7-1

Win #5

DD 5-6

Pick 3: 5-6-3 *straight ticket*

I landed on one of the Wesley Ward first timers, #5 Chitarra. This 2yo filly race is on the grass not the dirt, very important. I’m sure the #1 his other FTS, will take more money than the #5. Irad is on her and she was purchased for 700k. All more of a reason to back the 5, his ‘other’ one wins more than not, and it’s usually good value. Her workouts improved once she left Florida and got to Kentucky. The 5F, 36.4 gate drill on April 14th tells me she has blazing early speed. She is 100% bred to run on the grass all day, the sire Advertise starts at a 30k sire price, but she was purchased for 360k. This filly has all the makings of being a runner and we should get good value. Back the #5 with a win bet and single her in the DD, but use 1,5,7 in the pick 5.

.50c Pick 5: 1,5,7/6/3/1,3,5/2,8

Total: $9

Race 2: Pick: #6

DD 6-3. *In order to make this play I will need it to pay $7-$8. So 5-2 or 3-1 and better.*

I landed on the heavy favorite #6 Bourbon Chase. Irad is back aboard and Pletcher takes the blinkers off. Don’t be concerned with his low % with blinkers off, in most cases it’s usually a last resort, but in this case this colt seems to need it in order to calm down. It will be his first time going over a mile and I don’t think it will be a problem. He’s second off a short layoff and should be fit to get the 8.5 furlongs. I will single him in all of my multi race bets.

.50c Pick 4: 6/3/1,3,5/2,8

$1.50 Pick 4: 6/3/3/2,8

Total: $6

Race 3: Pick: #3

Win Bet #3 *Need 4-5 or better.*

Not sure the price we will get on #3 Dreams of Tomorrow, but if we can get even money or better this is of extreme value. In no way can I see the lightly raced 6yo losing here. He’s faced much, much better and should find himself loose on the lead with there being zero early speed in this race. I will be singling him in all multi race bets.

Race 4: Picks: #1-3-5

Win/Place Bet #1

One of the tougher races here, can I really back a 5yo who won debut with a low % bug girl, for a low % trainer. Why yes I can. That debut was incredible, she looked like she was driving a car in the stretch. Now facing winners is going to be much tougher which is why I’m spreading here, but ironically she could be the value in this race. I don’t expect the public to bet her in this spot. There appears to be a vast amount of early speed here, I can see the jocks getting aggressive early. With the stretch out from 6 furlongs to 8, she shouldn’t be AS far back as debut, but this race could fall right into her lap. Let’s take a shot with the #1 here, also use the 3 and 5 in multi’s. 

Race 5: Picks: #8-2

I have no plays in this race, as I don’t like the last. So I will pass on the late pick 5 and pick 4. I will use the two favorites though, #2 and #8 to close out the early pick 4 and 5.

Race 6: Picks: #5-6

My least favorite race on the card, I had 4,5,6 but they scratched the 4. So that leaves us with the 2 chalks. #5 and #6. I will not be making any plays on this race as well, just starting a pick 3 closing out to our best bet!

$1 Pick 3: 5,6/1,6,7/1

$2 Pick 3: 5,6/1/1

Total: $10

Race 7: Picks: A 1,7 B 6

Race 8: Pick: #1

STRONG Win Bet #1

This will be my best bet of the day, #1 My Sea Cottage. After his 3rd place finish on March 22nd of 2022, he got laid up until this past December. Where he broke his N2L tag in a dominating wire to wire performance from the rail, just like today. He draws the one hole, with virtually zero early speed in this race. After his win, he comes off of a pair of 3rd place finishes in this same class, in one he hopped at the break and still fought on for 3rd. His most recent performance, he didn’t make a clear lead until after they came out of the 1st turn going 23.3 then a blazing 22.4 2nd quarter. Hit the 3 quarters in 110 flat, and still fought on to get beaten ¾ of a length to Saffie Joseph 3 time winner Masterofthesenate. If this Mark Casse trainee gets loose on the lead with his nearest pursuers a bunch of 2/14, 2/24, 1/20 with a bunch of board hits type of horses, look out! Not to mention, in my opinion Jose Ortiz’s specialty is on the engine going long on the grass. 

Race 9:

PASS

Podcast 33 – 23 – NFL Draft Grades – College Football Info and SWT Play – UFC Charlotte – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to discuss the NFL Draft and some UFC!  First, Kiev talks about the Kentucky derby and how it went at the Circa Derby Party.   Next, he get’s into some NFL draft grades in the wake of the big schedule release today.   Then, we get into some college football and where you can get some good information on returning production.   After that, Kiev gives out a FREE college football season win total play for the 2023 season.  Finally, we get into some UFC on ABC 4 with some more plays and leans!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds23” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

MLB 5/10/23 Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

51-35-1 up 13 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 5-10-23!

16-7 up 8 units in 2023 NBA Thus Far on 5-10-23!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Cardinals vs Cubs +102

This is going to be a quick cap!

  • Jordan Montgomery is pitching for the Cardinals at a 3.29 ERA this year
  • Justin Steele is pitching for the Cubs at a 1.45 ERA this year
  • Cubs Bullpen ranks 4th in FIP at 3.57
  • Cardinals Bullpen ranks 8th in FIP at 3.75
  • Cardinals rank 11th in wRC+ at 107
  • Cubs rank 8th in wRC+ at 109
  • The Cubs are at home and looking to end a bad streak of Ls

Cubs +102 – 1 star

 

FreePlay Props, can Gallen go the Distance?

By
Eric Rocco
-

I have a prop I absolutely love tonight, Zac Gallen has fire coming out of each pitch right now. He heads home after his Texas outing where they got him for 3 runs, a Texas ball club averaging almost 7 runs a game in 2023. In 3 starts at Chase Field, he is yet to give up a run in 20 and ⅓ innings, and a total of 9 hits! Now will face a LIFELESS Marlins offense, who just played late into the day Sunday at Wrigley Field, winning in 14 innings. They then hopped on a plane and traveled to Phoenix, Arizona. They already don’t hit as it is, batting .243 this season and only .230 vs righties. Most of their ‘success’ has come vs lefties. Gallen has already shut them out this season in 6 and ⅔’s innings of shutout work in Miami. He hasn’t given up a walk in the last 4 starts, which tells me he’s attacking the strike zone on a consistent basis. If we can keep his strikeouts down and get some quick outs, I can see him working deep into this game. After what has transpired the last two days with their bullpen, I would assume Manager Torey Lovullo will leave him out there as long as possible. He’s yet to hit the 100 pitch mark in 2023, but tonight could be the night. I will be unloading on quite a few props here, a few will make you say WHAT!?

Zac Gallen total OUTS, over 18.5 (BetMGM +105) to win 1.05 units

Zac Gallen records WIN, Yes (PointsBet +110) to win 0.55 units

Zac Gallen total hits, under 5.5 (BetMGM -190) to win 0.5 units

Will there be a COMPLETE GAME: Yes (OffShore +1800) to win 1.8 units

Will there be a NO HITTER: Yes (OffShore +15000) to win 7.5 units

NHL Preview & Picks – May 8th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We only have one game taking place tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Matchups:

Vegas Golden Knights @ Edmonton Oilers

  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Series: Vegas Golden Knights (1) – Edmonton Oilers (1)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Vegas Golden Knights +145 +155 +1.5 (-155) o7 (+110)
Edmonton Oilers -170 -190 -1.5 (+135) u7 (-130)

 

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-110) – DraftKings
    • The Oilers evened up the series in Game 2 defeating the Golden Knights 5-1. They now return to Rogers Place for the next two games. Laurent Brossoit, who will get the start tonight for Vegas, has regressed in his last two starts allowing 4 and 5 goals against. Stuart Skinner rebounded after a terrible performance in the first game of the series. I think Edmonton uses that momentum from the last game to propel them to a victory tonight.

 

  • Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – FanDuel
    • Leon Draisaitl has gone over this number in each of the first two games of their series against Vegas. During that span, he’s averaging 4.5 shots on goal and 7.5 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in three of the last five games.

 

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

  • Evan Bouchard over 0.5 Points (-185) – DraftKings
    • Bouchard has at least one point in each of the first two games of their series against Vegas. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.
  • Connor McDavid over 1.5 Points (-190) – DraftKings
    • McDavid has at least two points in each of the first two games of their series against Vegas. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in two of the last five games.
  • Mark Stone over 0.5 Points (-175) – DraftKings
    • Stone has at least one point in each of the first two games of their series against Edmonton. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.
  • Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+108) – FanDuel
    • Alex Pietrangelo has gone over this number in each of the first two games of their series against Edmonton. During that span, he’s averaging 3.5 shots on goal and 5.5 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of the last five games.
  • Jack Eichel over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+106) – FanDuel
    • Jack Eichel has gone over this number in each of the first two games of their series against Edmonton. During that span, he’s averaging 5.0 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in three of the last five games.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

1...190191192...664Page 191 of 664