The AFC South – If I could completely skip this division with apologies to the Jaguars, I certainly would. Maybe we can get creative here. The AFC South is once again certainly the worst division in the NFL. The Jaguars are sitting pretty on top with six very winnable games. This year we will see a least two, if not three quarterback changes when Will Levis gets going for the Titans. The AFC South plays the AFC North and the NFC East which is pretty rough, and a lot tougher than this division in itself. The biggest blessing that a 2023 NFL team could get from their schedule is to get to play the AFC South. A huge congrats to the NFC East and the AFC North. Let’s dig in a bit too see if we could eek out some value.
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Kansas City, vs Buffalo* (in London) vs San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: RT Jawaan Taylor, OLB Arden Key, S Chris Wingard, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaquill Griffin, WR Marvin Jones, DT Corey Peters
Key additions: K Brandon McManus, RT Josh Wells, WR Calvin Ridley back suspension
Key Draft Picks: T Anton Harrison, TE Brenton Strange, LB Ventrell Miller, Edge Tyler Lacy, Edge Yasir Abdullah, S Antonio Johnson and a bunch more.
Summary: This Jaguars team was wonderful last year minus some dumb mistakes. Jacksonville lost some easier games throughout the early part of the season. They might have beaten the Super Bowl champion Chiefs had they not fumbled late inside the Chief’s five yard line. First, let’s talk about the bad. There really isn’t too much to say minus that the Jaguars lost some pretty good players to free agency. They are certainly taking a chance with former Oklahoma Sooner Left Tackle Anton Harrison being slotted into the starting position right away due to the loss of Jawaan Taylor, and the suspension of Cam Robinson for PEDs. The good news is that these team has a good scheme to have Trevor get rid of the ball quickly. Press Taylor has been a very underrated offensive coordinator. Other than that, I expect this Jaguars team to be fierce. They certainly had a ton of draft picks, and with any hope, will hit on a few of them to improve this defense from 12th in EPA, hopefully to top 8. The good news for the Jaguars is that their schedule looks very promising. They do have some rough games vs some at large opponents, but they are all at home if you count London as their secondary home. How can you not love the fact that they get to play the teams in their division twice? Jacksonville also doesn’t get any teams coming off of bye weeks. We have to remember that this team is getting Calvin Ridley back from suspension so that has to count for something. I can see good things happening for the Jaguars, and I would not be surprised if they have the best regular season record in the AFC.
My Number: 9.86
Action – Jacksonville to win AFC +1600
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – 3.75
2. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to under -130
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.82
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Chargers, @ Miami, vs Seattle
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Nate Davis, DE Demarcus Walker, WR Robert Woods, LB David Long, OLB Bud Dupree, DE Mario Edwards, LT Taylor Lewan
Key additions: OC Tim Kelly, T Andre Dillard, OLB Arden Key, T Daniel Brunskill, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Bunting
Key Draft Picks: T Peter Skoronski, QB Will Levis, RB Ryjae Spears
Summary: The Titans were one win away from stealing the wildcard spot from the Jaguars, but their Pythagorean number would have said that they were very lucky. This team was a front office mess over the last two years. Tennessee sure knows how to piss off a quarterback. Say what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but he is a solid starter, and this Will Levis thing is only going to piss him off even more this offseason. Tennessee has promoted Tim Kelly from passing coordinator to offensive coordinator coming into this season. Kelly squired behind Bill O’Brian, and in his short tenure as the offensive coordinator in in Houston, the team went 4-13. What could go wrong? From a skill positions perspective, I really do not see much talent past an aging Derek Henry who probably should be traded or let go. The defense should once again be solid after they filled some holes in free agency, but I feel that the Titan’s front office also created some holes due to free agency. In 2022 the Titans ranked 30th in passing yards per game. They struggled to score points in almost every game. I see a very bad offense going into 2023. The good news is that the Titans schedule is pretty favorable this year as they get +11 rest days as well as getting the Chargers early, and Miami late. I want to play the Chargers early due to the new offense under Kellen Moore, and Miami late due to the potentially head injuries which could happen to Tua. This win total is pretty low as it is, but even with the schedule, I have to still lean under.
My Number: 6.91
Action: Lean
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -2.25
3. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the under – 130
2022 Wins: 3.5
Pythagorean Wins: 4.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Arizona, vs Denver, @ New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Lovie Smith, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE Rasheem Green, C Justin Britt, G AJ Cann, DE Mario Addison
Key additions: WR Robert Woods, S Jimmy Ward, DT Sheldon Rankings, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Case Keenum, CB Tremon Smith, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, DE Chea Winovich and a bunch more.
Key Draft Picks: QB CJ Stroud, Edge Will Anderson, C Juice Scruggs, and a bunch of hope
Summary: This Texans team like most of this division, has a very boneheaded front office. How the heck are you going to allow the Bears to take the 1st pick of the draft by allowing Lovie to coach that last game? Now the team has to pretend that they wanted CJ Stroud all along, and maybe he might even be the better quarterback over the rest of the draft, but they still could have traded down a spot and had gotten him anyways. For the bad mistakes over the past few years, the Texans were extremely active in free agency and this defense might even look half way respectable with Demeco Ryans as head coach, Matt Burke as defensive coordinator, and Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator who hopefully learned a lot from Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Although This team kinda got screwed on their fourth place at large games against Denver and the New York Jets, This team could be sneaky ok by the middle of the 2023 NFL season. The CJ Stroud and Will Anderson picks from the 2023 NFL draft were one hell of a 1-2 punch. Now with John Mechie trending healthy and the Robert Woods acquisition, maybe this team can eventually be somewhat respectable. Lots of wait and see, but I am somewhat optimistic here.
My Number: 6.72 wins
Action: Strong Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: -4.5
4. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 4.5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.93
Schedule: Easy – vs LA Rams, New England (in Frankfurt Germany), vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coaches Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich, QB Matt Ryan, QB Nick Foles, LB Bobby Okereke, CB Brandon Facyson, WR Parris Campbell, S Rodney McLeod
Key additions: Coach Shane Steichen, DE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay, LB EJ Speed, DT Taven Bryan, QB Garner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Whom they drafted: QB Anthony Richardson, CB Julius Brents, WR Josh Downs, T Blake Freeland and a bunch of late dudes.
Summary: Some say that the Houston Texans are the worst team in football. Some say it is the Cardinals, or the Buccaneers. Well they are all wrong. The worst team in football is the Indianapolis Colts and I am not even sure that it’s close. The Colts have the worst ownership in the NFL, and looking at other owners such as the Fords and the McCaskies, that is really saying something. So the Colts were “supposed” to be the best team in their division last year, but they faltered all the way to third due to pure incompetence from leadership. Both the head coach and the interim coach Jeff Saturday was fired last season and I am not even sure how much of the fault that they should bear. Was Matt Ryan that bad of a quarterback? He wasn’t with the Falcons. Transitioning to this year, new coach Shane Steichen will take over the offense with help from his new OC Jim Bob Cooter. Now if that isn’t a name for southern football, I do not know what is. Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley remains in place who actually wasn’t the main problem with this team, but as far as talent goes, this team certainly lacks it on defense minus maybe Shaq Leonard and a few overpriced guys. The worst move of the 2023 year thus far was drafting the most over-rated quarterback prospect in the draft in Anthony Richardson from Florida. Richardson is fast and strong, but he will not be able to run much in the NFL if teams do not respect the pass. Richardson was 54% accurate last year and I do not expect him to develop for quite some time if ever. Gardner Minshew will give it his best throwing to Michael Pittman and Jelani Woods. If there is any upside on this team, it’s that they at least still have Jonathan Taylor at running back coming back from injury, and an easier schedule for 2023. The Colts also just have only seven true away games with the neutral one in Frankfurt. Even after all that, I have the Colts only winning 4.96 games. Taking the under
My Number: 4.96
Action – Under
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -7.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
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80-69-2 up 6.5 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 6/13/23!
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Guardians vs Diamondbacks -145 O/U 8
This should be a fun pitching matchup today according to a lower total. Tristen McKenzie takes the rock for the Guardians who was a 4.5 ERA and a 2.78 FIP. Signs of positive regression? I honestly do not know because Tristen has only thrown for 10 innings this year. In 2022 he had a 2.96 ERA and a 3.59 FIP. The Diamondback’s Ace Zach Gallen takes the mound today boasting a 3.09 ERA with a 2.4 FIP over 84 innings. That is some very good numbers on a large sample size. The Guardian’s bullpen is above average while the Diamondback’s bullpen is below, but the Guardians had to use more pitchers in their matchup yesterday trying to close out the Padres. I could see some fatigue here. I also love the bats in the desert state with Arizona ranking 10th in wRC+ and the Guardians ranking 28th. Take the snakes!
Season 1, Podcast 3 of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission is available for your listening pleasure.
I will start with a recap the NBA Finals. Then I will recap week 1 of the CFL, and preview week 2. Go over last week’s MLB series and give you a new series for this upcoming weekend. As always, I will end it with a beautiful segment of “Reflect with Rocco.”
Enjoy everybody! Please follow me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
The Redblacks of Ottawa head home for their home opener to face Calgary. Both teams are off losses in week 1 with disappointing play from their QB’s, but if you watch the film, Arbuckle did not play anywhere near as bad as the numbers would suggest. In interception #1, Acklin was wide open down the field and pulled up on his route instead of continuing to run, making the ball look overthrown for an INT. The next two picks were also thrown down the field into double coverage, with 1 of the 2 just being a glorified punt. What I found fascinating about Ottawa was the heart and poise they showed after being down 10-0 just 9 minutes into the game. In drive #1 for Montreal, they went right down the field and scored. After a 2 and out for Ottawa, the Alouettes returned the punt into the redzone but were held to a field goal. After that it was all the Redblacks defense, forcing 6 sacks, and essentially stopping Montreal on the ground all game. I absolutely loved the intensity from Ottawa, on the road none-the-less, and the defensive play calling from their DC Barron Miles, initiating the blitz at all the right times. I think their defense takes this game over causing key turnovers in plus territory making the offense’s life much easier. I also expect a better game from Arbuckle as he will utilize Acklin’s speed to beat the Stamps and continue drives on 2nd down. The books are giving Ottawa zero respect in their home opener, so let’s take advantage of a bad line and make this our first unit upgrade of the season on the Redblacks getting the points.
Friday June 16th, 9:00pm ET
Winnipeg at Saskatchewan +6.5, 47.5
Winnipeg -6.5 (BetRivers -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u
The Blue Bombers made quite an opening statement in their home opener last week vs the Ti-Cats. Yet the final score doesn’t do quite the justice it should be receiving. Winnipeg was up 27-4 at half, but due to some sloppy play in the second half they let Hamilton crawl back into it with a defensive and special teams TD. Most of Hamilton’s yards took place with explosive plays when facing a big deficit. Now I’m not saying the Bomber defense played anywhere near as good as we’ve been accustomed to in recent years, they most surely struggled. I do believe between the sloppy play and near Hamilton comeback it was a wake-up call for them. Which is why I am on the Blue Bombers in week #2. I don’t usually recommend backing a near touchdown road favorite, but there are always exceptions to the rule. I believe this is the correct spot to throw the ’book’ out the window and back Winnipeg. Saskatchewan escaped with a narrow victory in Edmonton vs the bottom feeder Elks. Yes, I have stated Edmonton is going to be better this year, but that’s foreseeing to be seen yet. While Edmonton was better offensively, defensively not so much. The Roughriders were able to run for 135 yards on them, which is virtually where all their offense came from. Running for 135 yards on Winnipeg will be a whole different story, which puts the pigskin completely in Trevor Harris’s hands. Keeping up with Zach Collaros will be virtually impossible as his success vs the Riders has been second to none for a long time now. You must go back to October 5th, 2019, the last time the Riders were able to beat Winnipeg. In those previous 7 meetings Winnipeg is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, with an ATS margin of nearly +12 points. Bombers QB Zach Collaros was brilliant in week 1 and now gets to face a defense that he has averaged 266 yards per game in his last 7, while throwing 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. With 3 of the INT’s coming in one contest. In 2022 he was perfect; in 3 games he threw 10 TD’s and 0 interceptions. Winnipeg was 4-1 last season as touchdown or more favorites. I have no problem backing them in this position, so we are laying the points on the road for a full unit.
Saturday June 17th, 7:00pm ET
Edmonton at B.C. -7, 45.5
B.C. ML -280 (DraftKings) risk 2.1u to win 0.75u
Am I really backing back-to-back favorites? It’s opening night for the Lions, they get an extra 2 days to prepare and get healthy, and they face arguably the worst defense in the league. You bet I am, but not quite to the same degree in this one as I’m not convinced B.C. will cover the 7 points. On paper how is Edmonton going to keep up with this Lion offense. It surely won’t be defensively, or will it? The Elks got shredded on the ground in week 1 vs the lowly Roughriders, and now must face Taquan Mizzell who ran for 81 yards in Calgary week 1, as well as dual threat QB Vernon Adams who can take off at any time. Edmonton will need to keep a spy on him to prevent that from happening, which in return should open the field for WR Dominique Rhymes and company. Yes, I am much higher than most on Edmonton this year and I believe they will start to improve in certain areas, but beating the likes of the Lions compared to the Riders is night and day. Look I was completely wrong about Adams so far, although it has only been one week, I don’t see the narrative changing, yet. I think Edmonton will get far behind in this one, then Cornelius and Lewis will start to mount a comeback but come up short. This is why I will back B.C. on the money-line as I think the point-spread is spot on the number. I have no trouble laying the big juice as I don’t see in any realm the Elks winning this game outright. Let’s go LIONS!
Sunday June 18th, 7:00pm ET
Hamilton at Toronto +2, 46.5
1H: Hamilton -0.5 (SuperBook -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5
Hamilton ML -130 (BetRivers) risk 1.3u to win 1u
Again, the Tigercat’s have one of the more intriguing headlines of the weekend. Bo-Levi and company head to Toronto to face the defending champion Argonauts. Yet, personnel might look slightly different than the 4 contests last season, where Toronto was victorious in 3 of the 4. Mitchell is now the head of the offense in Hamilton who played well ‘enough’ in week 1 and Bethel-Thompson, Toronto’s 22’ QB is heading for the NFL, or at least trying to. Which leaves Chad Kelly as their 2023 QB. It’s also his season debut as the Argo’s got the week 1 bye. I think this is a tough spot for Toronto. They catch a Tigercat team who got rid of the nerves, ‘week 1 mistakes’, were able to start to gel as the new pieces start to form some chemistry and their game speed will be much higher. Butler dazzled in his Ti-cat debut running for 66 yards on 11 carries and scoring his first Hamilton touchdown. He was unable to get anything going through the pass game, as Winnipeg kept him contained. Facing Toronto could be a different story, as 2022 Tigercat RB Don Jackson had two explosive games via the air vs Toronto last season. Game 1 was able to grab 8 receptions for 67 yards and a TD, and game 3, had 6 catches for 52 yards. Look for a big game with Butler on Sunday night! I will look to back Hamilton in the 1st half, due to the game speed will be difficult for the Argo’s early. I will also back them on the ML for the game Sunday, looking for Bo-Levi Mitchell to get back to his winning ways.
We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting from @ExpectedBetsFor and Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer from @Heatsrokespod come on to break down the 2023 US Open at the Los Angeles Country Club! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the Belmont and his NBA season at 63% at 12% ROI. Next, Brady and Patrick come on and they get right into the US Open championship. What is the course like in LA? What are the best metrics to handicap these golfers at this venue? Who are we playing to win? Who are we fading in Matchups? Then, Kiev gets into the AFC South with a big preview and some plays that he has made for the 2023 NFL season. Finally, Kiev breaks down some UFC on ESPN with some Free Plays to finish out the show! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The season’s third Major is here, the U.S. Open. This will be the 123rd edition of this event and the first time that it’s been held at Los Angeles Country Club. The last time the U.S. Open was held in the Los Angeles area was in back 1948, 75 years ago. This is the 86th USGA Championship held in California, the second most of any state (Pennsylvania, 90). Out of those eighty-six events, fifteen were U.S. Opens. Before this year, the most recent first-time U.S. Open venue was Erin Hills in 2017 and Chambers Bay in 2015. Neither of those courses is on the list to host another U.S. Open but LA CC is slated to host again in 2039.
The last time a USGA championship was held at Los Angeles Country Club was the 2017 Walker Cup where the US defeated Great Britain & Ireland 19-7. For those unfamiliar with the Walker Cup, it’s a similar format to the Ryder Cup that pits the best amateurs from the USA and the United Kingdom against each other. Several notable names were on the United States team including Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Champ, Doug Ghim, and Doc Redman. Collin Morikawa was incredible as he was one of three Americans to win all four of his matches.
In addition to the 2017 Walker Cup, Los Angeles Country Club has also hosted the 1930 United States Women’s Amateur Golf Championship and the 1954 U.S. Junior Amateur Golf Championship.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The biggest story in golf history, the “merger” of the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour will be the main topic. I won’t say anything further on this topic but stay tuned for a podcast on Wednesday.
Matt Fitzpatrick will look to defend his U.S. Open title after winning last year at the Country Club. He became the 13th player to have won both the U.S. Amateur and U.S. Open. Following that victory, he has only won once since then which was at the RBC Heritage earlier this season when he defeated Jordan Spieth in a playoff. His play dipped a little this year as he was struggling with a neck injury but comes into this event with some hope after finishing tied for ninth at the Memorial Tournament.
Several players have California ties through their college careers which includes Patrick Cantlay (UCLA), Justin Suh (USC), Collin Morikawa (CAL), Max Homa (CAL), Xander Schauffele (SDSU), and Sahith Theegala (Pepperdine). Numerous players were also born in California including Bryson Dechambeau (Modesto, California), Rickie Fowler (Murrieta, California), Collin Morikawa (Los Angeles, California), Max Homa (Burbank, California), and Sahith Theegala (Orange, California).
Out of those groups, the two standouts with significant ties to California with a correlated record of success are Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco, California). Most recently he withdrew at the Memorial Tournament due to back spasms so it’ll be something to monitor this week. Homa has already won twice in the state of California this year and has ties to Los Angeles Country Club. Back in 2013, he won the Pac-12 Championship which was held at this course. In addition to that, Max Homa holds the competitive course record at LA CC as well.
Scottie Scheffler, six-time PGA tour winner, and current World No. 1 enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s already won twice on the Tour this year (WM Pheonix Open & THE PLAYERS). Last year he was able to win his first Major Championship at Augusta National. Since then, he has finished runner-up in two of the last five Majors including the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 PGA Championship.
World No. 2, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships including the 2021 U.S. Open which was held at Torrey Pines. Rahm has also had success in California this season winning The American Express and The Genesis Invitational. If he’s able to win this week, he’ll become the seventh player to have won the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year.
There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Viktor Hovland, current World No. 5, finished tied for second at the PGA Championship last month. He’s now finished inside the top 10 in each of his last three Major Championship appearances. Xander Schauffele, current World No. 6, has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Max Homa, current World No. 7, is also looking for his first Major Championship. Those four players have combined for 25 PGA TOUR titles and have all won at least twice since the start of the 2021-22 season.
Lastly, there are fourteen players from the LIV Tour competing in this year’s U.S. Open. Headlining the list of players include Brooks Koepka, the 2023 PGA Championship winner, and Cameron Smith, the defending Open Championship winner. Dustin Johnson is another player to mention as he won the 2016 U.S. Open. Phil Mickelson is also in the field this week and can complete the career Grand Slam if he’s able to win.
Also, before I break down this tournament I just wanted to wish all of the dads out there a Happy Father’s Day!
The United States Open Championship, also known as the US Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States. It’s the third of four major championships.
The first U.S. Open was played in 1895 on a nine-hole course at the Newport Country Club in Newport, RI. Back then it was a single-day 36-hole competition. The first American-born player to win the U.S. Open was John J. McDermott in 1911.
Until 2017, the U.S. Open retained a full 18-hole playoff on the following day. However, since 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff format. The format will switch to sudden death if the playoff is still tied after two holes.
Winners of the U.S. Open will not only take home the prize money but will also receive a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, are invited to play in the three other majors for the next five years, and are exempt from qualifying for the U.S. Open itself for 10 years.
In 1987, several residents of Los Angeles, led by Joseph Sartoni and Edwards Tufts organized an association to further the golf in the area. They leased a 16-acre lot at the corner of Pico and Alvarado streets for a nine-hole golf course called “The Windmill Links.” The name came from the makeshift clubhouse that was crafted from the bottom of an abandoned windmill. After the club had outgrown several locations, Los Angeles Country Club moved to its current location bordering Beverly Hills and opened on May 30, 1911. The original 18-hole golf course was designed by Sartoni, Tufts, Norman Macbeth, and Charles Orr.
In the 1920s, club member and famed gold architect George C. Thomas Jr. redesigned the North Course. The latest renovation was in 2010 and took nearly five years to complete led by Gil Hanse to restore Thomas’ 1928 layout.
In 2015, the historic 106-year-old clubhouse underwent a renovation to restore its original grandeur. The reopening in 2016 included the rededication of the Regan Terrance in honor of Ronald Regan, the 40th president of the United States and member of LA CC.
In that same year, Hanse renovated the club’s South Course which opened in July of 2016.
The first edition of the Los Angeles Open, now known as The Genesis Invitational, was held at LACC (North) in 1926, and the event has been held there a total of five times (1926, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940). The last major championship played in the Los Angeles area was the 1995 PGA Championship, held at The Riviera Country Club, the host venue of The Genesis Invitational
Most Tournament Wins (U.S. Open):
4 – Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980
72-Hole Record:
268 – Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)
18-Hole Record:
63 – Johnny Miller (4th round, 1973 at Oakmont), Tom Weiskopf (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Jack Nicklaus (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Vijay Singh (2nd round, 2003 at Olympia Fields), Justin Thomas (3rd round, 2017 at Erin Hills), Tommy Fleetwood (4th round, 2018 at Shinnecock Hills)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
In terms of length, Los Angeles Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,421 yards. It’s the fifth-longest course players will face this season.
The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 5th (widest) of 46, with the average fairway width being 43.0 yards. This is also the first U.S. Open with Bermuda grass rough since 2005 at Pinehurst No. 2.
The average green size is roughly 6,500 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. The greens are Bentgrass which is something we don’t traditionally see in California. Torrey Pines (North) in California is the only course on Tour that features Bentgrass greens.
There are 66 bunkers which is the 15th fewest out of 46 courses.
The five Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 7, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 124 yards and 290 yards. This is one of the more unique layouts we’ve seen on Tour and one of the only courses to have this many Par 3s.
No. 7, 284 yards, Par 3: This is a long, challenging par 3. However, players do not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can run the ball up along the left side of the fairway. Most players will likely take this approach as there is a large bunker that protects the green along the right side.
No. 9, 171 yards, Par 3: This is an elevated par 3 with the green playing approximately 15-20 feet above the tee box. The green itself is one of the narrowest on the course but is the deepest. Three bunkers surround the green on the left, right, and front so a precise iron is required. Players will likely try to aim for the back of the green and use the slope depending on the pin location.
No. 11, 290 yards, Par 3: This is the longest par 3 at Los Angeles Country Club and second longest Par 3 in U.S. Open history (No. 8 – Oakmont).
The majority of the ten Par 4’s are longer than 450 yards. Three of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 330 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 542 yards.
No. 5, 480 Yards, Par 4: A fairly open Par 4 off the tee but players will look to favor the left side of the fairway as the right side slopes toward the right rough. The green itself is the second largest on the property at 8,055 sq. ft and is protected by bunkers on the front and right side.
No. 6, 330 yards, Par 4: This is one of the more interesting holes on the course as this short Par 4 is driveable off the tee. However, it is a blind shot so players will have to factor that in. Most players will likely layup as the green is one of the smallest on the course and is protected by bunkers in the front and fescue in the back.
No. 13, 507 Yards, Par 4: Off the tee, players will need to aim towards the left side of the fairway to avoid the pronounced left-to-right slope that will likely feed the ball into the rough and will result in a blind second shot. The majority of the green is surrounded by closely mown turf that will allow players to play a variety of recovery shots should they miss the green.
🚨☠️ The right side of the fairway is dead at LACC’s par-4 13th… #USOpen2023
The three Par 5’s are No. 1, No. 8 & No. 14. This is the first time a Par 5 will be the opening hole in a U.S. Open since 2017 at Erin Hills. No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s listed at 623 yards. Given the difficulty of the course, players will need to take advantage of these holes.
No. 1, 578 yards, Par 5: This is one of the easier holes on the course. Off the tee, players will look to avoid two fairway bunkers on either side. If they’re able to do so, they should have a chance to reach the green in two shots. On their approach, they’ll only have to worry about a bunker short left of this elevated green. The green itself slopes off the back so if they do hit it long, it could create some issues.
No. 8, 547 yards, Par 5: This is another hole that provides a good chance at birdie as it’s the shortest Par 5 on the course. Off the tee, players will aim along the left side of the fairway as the drive zone pitches severely from left to right toward the barranca. From there, players will have a semi-blind approach shot into the green which is reachable for most players in two. Players will not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can land short and allow the ball to run up. Anything right or left of the green can mean trouble as it’s protected by sand on either side.
No. 14, 623 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course which can play longer depending on the breeze. Off the tee, players will try to avoid the fairway bunkers on the right side. Players will likely choose to layup as the hole narrows towards the extremely small green.
Hole
Yards
Par
Hole
Yards
Par
1
578
5
10
409
4
2
497
4
11
290
3
3
419
4
12
380
4
4
228
3
13
507
4
5
480
4
14
623
5
6
330
4
15
124
3
7
284
3
16
542
4
8
547
5
17
520
4
9
171
3
18
492
4
Out
3,534
35
In
3,887
35
Total
7,421
70
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 500+ Yards (x3)
Par 3 Scoring: 225 – 300 Yards (x3)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Major History
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s U.S. Open. All of the world’s top 10 ranked players are in the field this week. A few notable absences this week are Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, Talor Gooch, and Tiger Woods. This is also the third event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+700) enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s been terrific in the first two Major Championships of the year finishing T10 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA Championship. His last and only Major victory was last year at Augusta National. While his kryptonite has always been his play on the green, it’s been even worse as of late as he’s lost strokes putting in five of his last six starts.
Jon Rahm (+1000) has the most wins on the PGA Tour with four. One of those wins was at the first Major Championship of the year, the Masters. In the most recent Major, he struggled at Oak Hill finishing T50 at the PGA Championship. He’s already won the U.S. Open back in 2021 when it was at Torrey Pines. With a win this week, Rahm would become the first player to win five times in a season since Justin Thomas in 2016-17 and the first to win multiple majors in the same year since Jordan Spieth in 2015 (Masters,
U.S. Open).
Brooks Koepka (+1100) won the U.S. Open in back-to-back years from 2017 to 2018. Since then, he’s finished inside the top 5 in two of his last three appearances at this event. He’s been terrific in Major Championships this year winning the PGA Championship and finishing T2 at the Masters. In his last start on the LIV Tour, he finished 14th at LIV DC.
Rory McIlroy (+1400) won the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional but has not won this event since then. However, he has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four appearances at the U.S. Open. He won the CJ Cup in South Carolina earlier this season and enters in good form. In his last three starts on the PGA Tour, he’s finished T7/ T7/ T9. McIlroy has won four majors (2011 U.S. Open, 2012 PGA Championship, 2014 Open Championship, 2014 PGA Championship) but none since the start of the 2014-15
season. He has 18 top-10s in majors since his most recent title, the most of any player in that span. McIlroy is making his 48th start in a major and 33rd since winning the 2014 PGA Championship.
Patrick Cantlay (+1400) has played in seven U.S. Opens but has never finished inside the top 10. In his last two appearances at this event, he’s finished T15 and T14. He’s still looking for his first Major Championship with his best finish coming at the 2019 PGA Championship (T3). Cantlay has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but does have ten top-20 finishes in fourteen starts.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Matt Fitzpatrick (’22), Jon Rahm (’21), Bryson DeChambeau (’20), Gary Woodland (’19), Brooks Koepka (’18, ’17), Dustin Johnson (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Martin Kaymer (’14), Justin Rose (’13), Webb Simpson (’12), Rory McIlroy (’11)
LIV Players in the field (14):
Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Carlos Ortiz, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Sebastian Munoz,
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Xander Schauffele
T14
T7
5
T3
T6
T5
Brooks Koepka
55
T4
2
1
1
T13
T18
T4
MC
Collin Morikawa
T5
T4
MC
T35
Scottie Scheffler
T2
T7
MC
T27
MC
Rory McIlroy
T5
T7
T8
T9
MC
MC
MC
T9
T23
T41
MC
1
Hideki Matsuyama
4
T26
T17
T21
T16
T2
MC
T18
T35
T10
Patrick Reed
T49
T19
T13
T32
4
T13
MC
T14
T35
Jon Rahm
T12
1
T23
T3
MC
MC
T23
Dustin Johnson
T24
T19
T6
T35
3
MC
1
T2
T4
55
MC
T23
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Luke List
MC
MC
MC
Corey Conners
MC
MC
MC
MC
Cameron Young
MC
MC
MC
Victor Perez
MC
MC
MC
Sahith Theegala
MC
MC
Kurt Kitayama
MC
MC
Justin Suh
MC
MC
Paul Barjon
MC
MC
Mito Pereira
MC
MC
Wyndham Clark
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6) – The Country Club (Composite)
Price: 30-1
2021: Jon Rahm (-6) – Torrey Pines (South)
Price: 10-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) – Winged Foot (West)
Price:25-1
2019: Gary Woodland (-13) – Pebble Beach
Price: 80-1
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1) – Shinnecock Hills
Price: 25-1
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Erin Hills
Price: 50-1
Picks (Outrights):
Jon Rahm (+1100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.73 to win 8.03 Units
Xander Schauffele (+2100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units
Jordan Spieth (+3200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.00 Units
Cameron Smith (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.63 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tyrrell Hatton (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Rickie Fowler (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Corey Conners (+115) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Mito Pereira (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Total Risk on Top 30s: 3.00 Units
Matchups:
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-120) over Dustin Johnson – DraftKings
Cameron Smith (-110) over Max Homa – DraftKings
Total Risk on the U.S. Open: 5.63 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Please give me a follow on Twitter to access all of my content and picks @TrustRocco.
Nuggets -2 (Bet365 -115) risk 1.15u to win 1u
So, I debated on doing a free-play article tonight and said to myself, this is the last game of the NBA season (in my opinion) I absolutely have too considering the amazing season we have had. So, yes assuming we close out all our series bets tonight, I believe I have uncovered one last play to send our 2022-23 season into just a memory. If you have read all my articles this season, you know at this point it’s not going to be a basic side/total bet tonight as that wouldn’t be me since I like to think outside the box. What quarter is Miami best in? Obviously, the 4th. Now their first halves have been hit or missed. Are they are going to leave it all on the court tonight? I think that goes without saying. I also think when it gets to halftime their gas tank is going to be EMPTY. This is also the same point of the game when Denver kicks it into high gear and gives the knockout punch to their opponents and is exactly what’s going to happen tonight! Like I have said in multiple of my podcasts, fatigue is going to kick in the Miami players at some point, specifically on the road in the high altitude of Denver. You could even say it started to show in the second half of game 4. So, Denver wins the NBA Finals tonight and delivers the knockout blow in quarter number 3, to hit our solo bet tonight, as well as our series bets! I hope everyone enjoyed the NBA season and my articles. This has been Eric Rocco, out.
The AFC North was one of the better divisions in football. I honestly believe that it might be the best division in football for the 2023/2024 season. Last year, this division once again was able to get two teams into the playoffs and one with one heck of a run to the AFC Championship game only to get reffed out of their chances of winning against the Chiefs. Not only do I think that the ceiling is high, I also think that the floor is very high as well being that the Browns have themselves a quarterback, and the Steelers are always above .500. This division plays the NFC West which has two very winnable games, as well as the AFC South which is a gift from the Gods with maybe three very winnable games. I expect the AFC North to have two, if not three teams make it to the post season for the 2023 campaign. Now that we are on to the AFC, we also have to remember that they get the extra at large home game vs the NFC. Let’s take a closer look at each team.
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Buffalo, vs Minnesota, @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Samaje Perine, CB Tre Flowers, CB Eli Apple
Key additions: T Orlando Brown, S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith,
Key Draft Picks: Edge Myles Murphy, CB DJ Turner, S Jordan Battle, RB Chase Brown
Summary: The Bengals were so close to another super bowl appearance and many thought they had it during the AFC Championship game in Kansas City. This team was relatively healthy during the regular season, but unfortunately, they lost some offensive line and receivers late into the playoffs which caused all kinds of issues. I also do not think that the Bengals used Joe Mixon to his capabilities only giving him a total of 11 touches. Cincinnati was out-coached and outclassed for most of that game. To be honest, “Who dey” was out-coached in the game before as well vs the Ravens. Maybe you can call them lucky to even be in that game, but they were also unlucky to lose home field advantage due to the Buffalo Bills cancelled game before the playoffs. Had the Bengals won that cancelled game, they are the ones with home field advantage. The good news is that this team will have a solid and a healthy offensive line along with a top three quarterback in smoking Joe Burrow coming into the 2023 season. From a defensive perspective, I do not like what this team lost at safety, and that could be a weakness when it comes down to facing the strong passing game in the AFC. Cincinnati is really relying on their draft picks to turn out this year. For the start of the season, the Bengals secondary will remain a bit decimated with the Vonn Bell and the Jessie Bates loss until further notice. The good news is that their tough division isn’t a very pass heavy one, so there is hope that they can get that defense where it was last year ranking number eight in overall EPA. If the draft turns out, then this team will be another big super bowl contender. I think that the Bengals once again come out of the starting gate slow, and figure it out by early to mid-season. Even though I have a high projected win total, I could see this team taking a step back due to the poor coaching of Zac Taylor.
My Number: 11.69
Action: Lean over
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 6.5
2. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -130
2022 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.32
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Detroit, @ LA Chargers, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Greg Roman, G Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver, DE Calais Campbell
Key additions: OC Todd Monkin, WR Odell Beckham Jr, CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor
Key Draft Picks: WR Zay Flowers, LB Trenton Simpson and a few dudes.
Summary: A simple fourteen point swing is really what did this quarterback-less Ravens team in during the playoffs. The Lamar Jackson injury certainly hurt being that I do not think that he fumble sixes at that goal line. In saying that, Lamar hasn’t had the best last few seasons under offensive coordinator Greg Roman as it is. Jackson ranked in EPA last year before missing the final six games due to injuries and contract disputes which was a bad look to his teamates. Now that Lamar proved all of the media pundits wrong by getting a massive contract without an agent, he has to now perform from an integrity aspect, gain his respect back, and maybe this is the year for him and the Ravens. The signing of Odell Beckham doesn’t really do a lot for me personally, and I think that they should have drafted defense from the get-go instead of a wide receiver. The Ravens offense is now up to a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monkin to get this team going. Todd has won some national championships at Georgia, and will have some new schemes built to fit the Lamar led offense to help create more space and some big plays coming into the 2023 NFL Season. Even though the Ravens didn’t get a lot of help from the draft, we have to remember that last year mid-season, they got the best linebacker in the game in Roquan Smith from the Bears for just a second round pick. I have to be optimistic here being that they have the Coach and a lot of Talent to potentially win the AFC North division. Baltimore’s schedule looks pretty good being that this team gets +9 net rest days, and plays nobody off of bye weeks or Thursday games. At +240, this looks like a pretty good deal being that this is the team that matches up best vs the Bengals.
My Number: 10.66
Action – Take Ravens to win the division +240 – 1 star
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3.25
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.09
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, vs New England
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Cameron Sutton, LB Robert Spillane, ILB Devin Bush, G Trenton Scott, S Terrell Edmonds, CB Will Jackson, ILB Myles Jack
Key additions: G Isaac Seumalo, LB Cole Holcomb, CB Patrick Peterson, G Nate Herbig, OLB Elandon Roberts, S Keanu Neal
Key Draft Picks: T Broderick Jones, CB Joey Porter Jr, DL Keanu Benton, TE Darnell Washington, Edge Nick Herbig
Summary: Well, I do not have to feel like Nostradamus to be proven right about Mitch Trubisky, but does that really even matter? The Steelers have found their franchise quarterback in in Kenny Pickett, and if it wasn’t for such a slow start last year, this team might have limped into the wildcard spot. I must say that even though this team lost some linebackers, they certainly crushed it in free agency as well as the 2023 NFL Draft. I love how Pittsburgh has added some big offensive and defensive trenches. On offense they drafted one of the best Tackles in Broderick Jones while signing free agent Guards Isaac Seiumalo and Nate Herbig. I also really like that this team did on defense drafting Keeanu Benton from Wisconsin while resigning Larry Ogunjobi. An area of concern for this team is at the wide receiver positions being that they got rid of Chase Claypool to the Bears. The depth certainly took a hit when they failed to draft or sign another one in the offseason. Another negative issue for this team is that last year, this team was the healthiest team in all of the NFL, so I have to do expect some injury regression here. Even in this rough divsion, the Steelers have the schedule to make some serious noise coming into the 2023 season. Pittsburgh has +7 rest days as well as a pretty favorable at large meetings @ Las Vegas, Green Bay and New England. I think that this team has a great shot in making the playoffs and an outside shot to win the division.
My Number: 9.55
Action – Strong lean over – Take them to make the playoffs at +140 – .5 stars and sprinkle some on the division at +500 (premium members got this earlier at +650)
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: 1.5
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -150
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.99
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Denver, vs Chicago, vs New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DC Joe Woods, QB Jacoby Brissett, C Hjalte Froholdt, DT Taven Bryan, DE Chris Winovich, CB Greedy Williams, ILB Deion Jones, S John Johnson, RB Kareem Hunt, DE Jadeveon Clowney
Key additions: DC Jim Schwartz, DE Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornill, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, WR Marquise Goodwin, CB Michael Ford, S Rodney McCloud, QB DeShawn Watson will have a full season
Key Draft Picks: WR Cedric Tillman, T Dawand Jones and a bunch of hope
Summary: Doesn’t this Browns team kinda feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from last year except with a younger quarterback? I mean, don’t get me wrong, this team still has a lot of talent, but I feel that they are getting a little bit older in the trenches. Let’s start with the good. Cleveland finally has a competent quarterback in DeShawn Watson who is primed to play the full season. This team also has plenty of talent that they have compiled over the last few years to attempt to make a super bowl run. I do like the hiring of proven defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. He’ll bring some attitude to this defense. This might be the spark that this defense needs to put it all together. I also have to love the fact that the Browns, like the Ravens, do not play anyone off of bye weeks or Thursday night games which nets them +10 days of rest. Now for the bad. For starters, Kevin Stefanski is still the coach of the Browns. I truly believe he is overrated and doesn’t know how to coach games in the clutch. Next is this team’s rushing defense. The Browns took a step back only ranking 25th in opponent rushing yards per game. They picked up Dalvin Tomlinson from the Vikings, but I don’t believe that he enough when this team has big holes at Linebacker. The Browns ranked dead last in rush EPA. I do not like that at all in this run heavy division. Finally, I think that DeShawn Watson, although extremely talented, could struggle some their first five games vs the Bengals, @ the Steelers, home vs the Titans, vs the Ravens and then vs the 49ers. The Titans should be a win but the other four are iffy at best. I think if you want to take an under on this team’s win total, you do it now. If you want to take an over, then wait until week 6.
JP Sears over 17.5 pitching outs (Caesars -121) risking 1.21u to win 1u
JP Sears takes the mound for the terribly bad, yet winners of 2 straight, Oakland Athletics. This kid has been wheeling and dealing as of late, and I believe I have come up with the perfect prop to back him on. In his last 5 starts, he has a 2.33 ERA, has only given up 8 hits in 27 innings pitched and hitter have a .194 BA versus him. His WHIP in the month of May was an astounding 0.95. Today he gets to face a weak Brewers line-up hitting .227 this season, and only .210 vs lefties. Sears has been very good vs righties this season, giving up a BA of .211. Ironically the Brewers went righty heavy today and immediately I asked myself why? Well, due to his lack of command last outing vs Pittsburgh, Brewers head coach Craig Counsell was sure to start his 5 guys with high walk percentages. This does not concern me one bit as command has not been a problem for JP. Let’s get him through 6 innings today!
