We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Fox Sport’s Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica and Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo is back to break down the 149th run for the roses! First, Kiev get’s into a little UFC 288 with a few pla7s as well as some leans. Then, Marco and Chris come on to talk about the biggest horse race of the year! How strong is the field? Are the two favorites justified at their prices? What will the weather be like? What are the best strategies in betting this race? Who are the thoroughbreds that we are tossing out? Which horses are legit sleepers? Finally, the guys give out their favorite horses to break the pari-mutuel bank and hopefully cash some huge tickets. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds23” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Don’t ever fade the Braves? Well, I might just have to break that rule today. Kyle Wright is pitching today for Atlanta and he is having a rough start at 4.86 ERA and 4.87 FIP. He doesn’t have the control that he has had last year when he was dealing at a 3.19 ERA. Braxton Garrett is taking the helm for the fish, and he has had a wonderful start at a 2.45 ERA with a 2.78 FIP over 22 innings. Atlanta certainly has the hitting and bullpen advantage over the Marlins, but they just saw Kyle Wright about a week ago, and they got hot against the Cubbies winning all three games. I think they bounce back from their shut-out loss they had yesterday and catch Atlanta sleeping.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for May 1st along with the second-round matchups.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – March 1st, 2023
New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
NHL Second-Round Playoff Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers
Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights
Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken
Carolina Hurricanes vs New Jersey Devils
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Tuesday, May 2nd. NBA Postseason Plays with Eric Rocco
This is a must win game for the Knicks and the perfect spot to back them. With injury concerns on both sides, who is playing and who is not tonight? Well for starters, ankle injuries are no joke, yes it was just a roll but man are they painful. If Butler goes, he will play on 1 day rest with an ankle injury potentially second guessing every jump, turn, and decision. They have 3 days until their next game, so if there was a spot to sit for an injury this would be it. He has announced he wants to try and go, so I believe it’s a win/win for NY backers. If he goes, we get a diluted line with him ‘playing’, and if he doesn’t? Well pretty self explanatory, it’s Jimmy Butler of course we don’t want him on the court. On the flip side, Randle sat in game 1 giving his ankle extra time to heal up. Even with Randle not playing, the Knicks dominated the first half unfortunately in every category except the one that mattered most, the scoreboard. They were up 3 at half, and had a 5 point lead in the 3rd quarter, but New York just couldn’t match their intensity on the Miami side and let the game slip away in the 2nd half. A portion of the game they have been quite strong, in the 22/23 season. Brunson had an uncharacteristic 5 turnovers, compared to the Heat with a total of 8. Look for these numbers to even out in game 2.
Look, the Heat did what they needed and stole one in New York. They’re on 1 day rest and a tired team, I would expect somewhat of a let down in game 2. MSG will be LOUD Tuesday night, Randle will be back and the high flying Knicks will even out the series. I expect a better game defensively from New York as well, so I will make a small play on the under, with the Knicks.
Knicks -6 (Caesars -110) to win 1.3 units
Under 208 (Caesars -110) to win 0.7 units
Knicks SERIES +125 (DraftKings) 2 units to win 2.5 units
Complete pass on the 2nd game, Lakers at Warriors. LA getting the 4.5, when I believe they are the better team, is truly enticing but I will have to pass. The Warriors have been cover machines at home all season, and 4.5 is a scary number, because they can run it up QUICKLY. This is a game I will personally make some live bets, and look for middles. These two teams go on ‘runs’ better than anyone else in basketball. PASS
Tony Finau outdueled Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open to capture his second PGA Tour victory of the season.
We now head to the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. The last time we saw Quail Hallow was earlier this year as it played host to the President’s Cup. Since the course required additional preparation for that event, last year’s Wells Fargo Championship was held at TPC Potomac.
Despite this week’s tournament being an ‘elevated’ event, there are a few major players notably absent. World No. 1, Jon Rahm, and World No. 2, Scottie Scheffler are skipping the Wells Fargo Championship due to ‘load management.’
Quail Hallow, located in Charlotte, North Carolina was founded in 1959. The course was designed by George Cobb and opened two years later. Since 2003, Quail Hallow has played host to the Wells Fargo Championship every year besides two (2017 & 2022). In 2017, Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship, and in 2022, the President’s Cup.
The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 as the Wachovia Championship. From 2009-10, the tournament was changed to the Quail Hollow Championship. After taking over the main sponsorship of the event two years prior, Wells Fargo attached its name to the event in 2011.
Due to its newly elevated status, the purse has significantly increased from $9 Million last year to $20 Million. With that, the winner’s share has gone from $1.62 Million to $3.6 Million.
72-Hole Record:
267, Rory McIlroy (2015)
18-Hole Record:
61, Rory McIlroy (Round 3, 2015)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Quail Hallow is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking fourth of forty-six courses. Over the past two editions (2019 & 2021), the scoring average has been above par both times. In 2021, only six holes played under par which includes the three par 5’s.
In terms of length, Quail Hallow is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,538 yards. It ranks 4th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 33.4 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,578 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers really aren’t a factor here as there are only 61 which ranks as the 11th fewest of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 184 yards and 249 yards. No. 6, No. 13, and No. 17 are three of the more challenging par 3’s as they all had more bogeys than birdies recorded on them in the 2021 tournament.
Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 344 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 506 yards.
The three Par 5’s are No. 7, No. 10, & No. 15. They all played under par in the 2021 tournament. All of these par 5’s are under 600 yards.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18 (“Green Mile”)
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Driving Distance
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x6)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There are 156 players in the field at this year’s Wells Fargo Championship Tournament. Twenty-one of the world’s top thirty players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Rory McIlroy (+700)
Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
Tony Finau (+1400)
Xander Schauffele (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Jordan Spieth (+1800)
Cameron Young (+1800)
Previous Winners in the Field:
Max Homa (’22*, ’19), Rory McIlroy (’21, ’15, ’10), Jason Day (’18), James Hahn (’16), J.B. Holmes (’14), Rickie Fowler (’12), and Lucas Glover (’11)
Justin Thomas (2017 PGA Championship)
Notable Withdraws:
Brandon Wu
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
[Not including the 2017 and 2022 Wells Fargo Championship that were not held at Quail Hallow]
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
[Not including the 2017 and 2022 Wells Fargo Championship that were not held at Quail Hallow]
Nate Lashley: MC/ T45/ MC
Mackenzie Hughes: MC/ T59/ MC/ MC
Stephan Jaeger: MC/ MC
Ryan Armour: T59/ MC/ MC
Michael Thompson: T64/ MC/ T11/ T28/ MC/ T42/ MC/ MC
Denny McCarthy: MC/ MC/ MC
Kelly Kraft: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Brice Garnett: MC/ MC/ 75/ T60/ MC
Tyler Duncan: T64/ MC/ MC
Sam Ryder: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Max Homa (-8)*
Price: 40-1
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
Price: 18-1
2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Max Homa (-15)
Price: 500-1
2018: Jason Day (-12)
Price: 20-1
* Held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm
Picks (Outrights):
Viktor Hovland (+2100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units
Sungjae Im (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Jason Day (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Gary Woodland (+7500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Young (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Rickie Fowler (+175) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Keith Mitchell (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Emiliano Grillo (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Wells Fargo Championship: 5.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
If you read my article last night on our #FREEPLAY, you were handsomely rewarded with a comfortable 7-3 victory for the Blue Crew. Well let’s run it back. Our free play tonight is heading back down to LA, but most likely not quite what you are thinking. Kershaw is on the mound, and how in the heck can we bet against him? If you have read my other articles y’all know my answer, very easily my friends.
Cardinals ML +130 (PointsBet) 1.1 units
Montgomery Pitching Outs over 17.5 (Caesars -113) 0.6 units
Montgomery Earned Runs under 2.5 (Bovada -135) 0.5 units
Montgomery earns WIN +200 (PointsBet) 0.25 units
The Cardinals have arrived at the stadium getting ready to face a lefty, it’s been so long since this has happened they might have forgotten the process. You have to back track to the beginning of the season since the last time they have faced one. Day after day, righty after righty. Well, Nolan and Goldy will get them up to speed fairly quickly and remind them that we MUG lefties at .316 on the season and .345 in their last 10. Specifically Nolan Arenado who is 21/67 vs Kershaw, including 5 home runs with a batting average of .313. I’m not 100% on this thought, but he could lead all of baseball vs Kershaw in average with a minimum of at-bats. That’s impressive! Now beating Kershaw will be no easy task, but if we just get to him with a few runs, I believe that’s all that will be needed with Montgomery on the mound for St. Louis tonight, who is locked in right now. Since he has been in the Cardinal uniform he’s lost a total of 2 road starts, ironically 1 of them was here at Dodger Stadium, but the way he’s been throwing and the Dodgers flat out can’t hit lefties(.163 this season). I’m expecting a big performance from Jordan tonight!
I believe this Pick 4 has a decent amount of value to it. Yes there will be a heavy favorite in the sequence, but luckily it looks like a 2 horse race, which makes ticket creation fairly easy. Especially this being Woodbine, where you have the 20 cent increments always available.
So basically in Race 9, every ticket that has Horse A(the favorite), you want is in this case 3 times as many tickets alive then to Horse B(the non-favorite). Example: Horse A, 60 cents or 3 tickets alive, Horse B, 20 cents or 1 ticket alive.
Moving on, I say a decent amount of value because the remaining 3 legs really have no clear cut favorite, you can go many ways in these races forcing most bettors to spread for bigger tickets or take stands where they necessarily wouldn’t. Creating some dead money. I personally love making tickets like this for value. Small investment=potentially large outcome.
I have included a few plays to make individually on each race. Also a Pick 3 on races 7,8,9. As always, 20 cent base bets.
Now let’s have fun and win some money!
20 cent Pick 4:3,5/1,2,5/2,3/2,3,4,6,7=$12 total
40 cent Pick 4:3,5/1,2,5/2/2,3,4,6,7=$12 total
Race 7:Win and Place #3
We kick off the sequence with a 3yo filly Stakes Race, what can go wrong? Kidding slightly. You can go many ways here, but I have landed confidently on two horses here. My top play is #3 KAVALA. She debuted at Gulfstream in January for 16k for D’Angelo and got claimed by Tharrenos. Whatever Tharrenos saw in the morning was obviously different from D’Angelo; he then ran her 6 weeks later in an OC35k n1x and she galloped. When Irad got into her in the stretch she TOOK OFF. She ran by G. Bennett trained filly Pretty N Awesome like she was standing still, who is fast! As a matter of fact the day of this race Ferrer took off his mounts at Tampa just to ride this filly. Since arriving at Woodbine she has had 3 great works, including a 4F bullet drill of 59.0, 1/33 that day. She has tactical speed and gets Hernandez to ride her. Casse has three in here and it appears Rafael went with Tharrenos, who he rode for a whole 5 times last year. I tossed in #5 JILL JITTERBUG who has been campaigning at Turfway all winter, and doing a heck of a job. Just ran a quality 2nd to Wesley Ward’s undefeated Sunday Shoes. Walsh has himself a runner here, the homebred does her work from off the pace, but boy does she roll late. In a race that looks like they will be going quite fast early, could fall right into Civaci’s hands to pick up the pieces late.
3-5
20 cent Pick 3: 3,5/1,2,5/2,3=$2.40
60 cent Pick 3: 3,5/1,2,5/2=$3.60
Race 8:Trifecta Box 1,2,5
I landed on #5 EMICRACK who seems like the lone and controlling speed. Husbands is teaming up with Denise McClachrie for the first time. This 6yo gelding was ridden by Gallardo and Stein all meet last year, a big upgrade in my opinion. Of the 3 I trust Patrick on the engine more than anyone. Unfortunately this horse has a tendency to give it up late, and run 2nd. Hence a record of 29 starts, 4 wins and 9 PLACES. That leads us to the rail horse #1 COTTON, 2nd off the claim for Drexler for owner Schickedanz. Lands top jockey Rafael Hernandez, this has all the makings of Rafael breaking near the lead and getting a perfect trip. My concerns, when claimed last November it just broke his N3L tag, and was for 15k. Much better class of horses here, but with the barn change and numbers that somehow fit you can’t leave him off your ticket. My last throw in was the classy #2 LENNY K. This horse has been trending in the wrong direction for about a year now. If the old Lenny shows up who ran 3rd to Arzak and Silent Poet off the layoff last April he will be right there. Leaving a classy Kevin Attard horse off of a ticket is never a good idea. Yes I tossed the favorite #3, that dirt form is great and all, but this horse has never shown the same success on the poly.
5-1-2
Race 9:Exacta ($5) 2-3 and ($1) 3-2. Win 3
I think #2 and #3 completely separate themselves from this field, with the race only being 5 ½ furlongs it benefits #3 ROCKCREST tremendously. Which will be my lukewarm top pick. He is the only true sprinter here, yes I know the 2’s record of 7 wins from 9 races but he most certainly likes more ground. Will his class prevail, quite possibly, but if Hoyte gets Rockcrest loose on this lead, look out. This horse has heart and a nose for the wire. He got beat a neck last summer on the grass going 5 vs Stakes Winner Turned Aside. Let’s hope he can hold off #2 FILO DI ARIANNA late.
3-2
Race 10:Win and Place #7
This maiden optional 40 is most definitely the spread leg of the sequence. The catch is it’s 5 furlongs, as opposed to 5 ½ or 6. So a horse off the layoff, which is pretty much all of them, could survive to the wire even if they’re a little short. I tried to use all those types of horses, which is how I landed on the 7 STRIKE THE POSE. Debuted in a 100k State bred filly Stakes race last October at Woodbine, ran 4th out of 5 beaten by 6 lengths, but the number came back a 72. I thought it fits this field perfectly. Trainer Raghunath puts the blinkers BACK ON, which this filly had on her 1st 2 starts and showed some good early lick. Got the winter off and has been training relatively well for this field. Lets hope she can make an improvement of her 2yo races, at 20-1 I’ll take my chances. I threw in FTS #2 simply off that 47.3 gate drill April 22nd, it wouldn’t surprise me in this field. I also tossed in #3 and #6 for the same reasons, good early speed if they get clear could very easily hold on. Last number i tossed in was #4, low % jockey and trainer, but her numbers fit here and should get the trip, might even be the favorite.
7-2-3-6-4
As always make these plays at your own risk, and make them for whatever amounts are suitable for you, this is how I would play them. Again good luck and have fun!
Happy Saturday everyone. Got some great baseball action today on the docket and some pre-Kentucky night action at Churchill Downs. Also some big races overnight at Hong Kong Sha Tin if you’re into that 24 hours straight of being in action kinda thing. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you are interested in any horse tips for tonight. Gonna preview some baseball this evening now though.
My analysis turns to Globe Lufe Stadium in Arlington, Texas today where the Rangers take on the New York Yankees in AL action at 7:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Rangers -162, Yankees +142 and the Over/Under is sitting at 8.5/-110. As far as weather goes, the roof was closed last night, but it’s supposed to be 70 and sunny at game-time tonight with a moderate breeze blowing out to right field. I am guessing the roof will be open.
Well, the Yankees offense got a preview of what it’s like without Aaron Judge last night as they managed only five hits and two runs in 5-2 Loss. The results of the MRI on Judge’s hip haven’t yet been revealed, but they said they found something so I dont expect him back tonight. With Giancarlo Stanton also out the Yankees offense is a shell of it’s normal self. Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero just don’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers in the same way. That being said, both those guys have some pop in their bats and Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres are still in the lineup. The Rangers offense is also without a key cog as Corey Seager remains on the IL. Texas hasn’t missed a beat without him though as they are 4th in MLB in OPS since Seagar went down. Last night, even with Clarke Schmidt striking out 8 Rangers, they beat him around for 10 hits and 5 runs over his 5 innings.
Jhony Brito takes the mound for the Yankees. He hasn’t gone longer than 4.1 IP in his last 3 outings and on the year has a K/9 at 6.11 and a BB/9 at 5.09. That is not a recipe for success and it shows in his 6.11 ERA and 5.56 xFIP. Brito is a ground ball pitcher and his numbers would look even worse if he wasn’t generating them at nearly a 50% clip. He’s also currently rocking a 4.8% HR/FB ratio which is bound to regress. The only thing he really has going for him is this will be the first time everyone in the Rangers dugout will face him. Veteran Nathan Eovaldi is on the bump for Texas. He has been much better than his numbers suggest with a 5.20 ERA overshadowing a 3.24 xFIP. His K/9 is over 10 while his walks per nine sit at only 1.63. He’s had bad luck with a .413 BABIP against, but a lot of that has to do with his hard contact rate allowed being over 45%. He does have quite a bit of history with many of these Yankees hitters, and hasn’t had a ton of success. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .444 on his career off him with a pair of Home Runs in 20 plate appearances. DJ Lemahiue has also homered off him and is a career .333 hitter in 45 plate appearances.
I think the market thinks the sky is falling on the Yanks, but after Jacob Degrom left the game last night they scratched out some offense against Dane Dunning. They still have enough pop in the lineup to score some runs, and they know that they have to step up to fill the void. Eovaldi has solid metrics and should be due for positive overall regression for his ERA, but he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball yet either this year just like Brito. If there’s one thing that always happens in baseball it’s visits for pitchers from the Long Ball Regression Fairies. I think Brito is gonna get hammered and Eovaldi hasn’t been clean yet so the Yanks should be able to get some runs off him.
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
41-27 up 10 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 4/29/23!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Reds vs Athletics +135 O/U 8
This should be another fun game of runs galore. The wind is blowing out to center field at about 8 miles per hour, and the forecast calls for low 60s. Hunter Greene takes the helm for the Reds who is boasting a nice 3.52 ERA thus far, but let’s also point out that last year over 125 innings, Green had a 4.44 ERA and a 4.5 FIP. Kyle Muller is starting for Oakland, and he is having a terrible year at 7.23 ERA and a 5.34 FIP. Let’s face it, Oakland is terrible this year with a bullpen ranking dead last in FIP at 6.13. Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks 11th at 4.07. I like some runs this game as the A’s give up a whopping 8.26 runs per game while Cincinnati ranks 25th giving up 5.08. Oakland believe it or not ranks 178th in wRC+ while Cincinnati ranks 15th in runs per game. The over is 18-7-2 in Oakland games. Take the over 8 runs.
The Dodgers head home after getting embarrassed by Pittsburgh this past series. If it wasn’t for a 6 run comeback in game 1, they would have been swept. Getting outscored in games 2 and 3, a gory 14-3. Wait against who? Yes, that would be 18 wins, NL leader Pittsburgh Pirates.
Awaiting in LA is St Louis, who is in the middle of a 10 game road stand, losing 5 of the 7 so far. Look, the Cards continue to clobber lefties and struggle vs righties. Luckily for Dustin May he was born right handed. In away games the Cards are hitting .236 vs R’s. If you toss May’s start vs the Mets where he was unable to finish off the hitters with 2 strikes, I think he’s had a very good season. 23 2/3 innings, only 9 hits, 5 ERs and 1 long ball. Back the Dodgers tonight at home at I think a generous price 🧐
