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2023 NFL Draft – Day One Recap and Day Two Full Primer

ronace2477@aol.com

April 28, 2023

By Ron Marmalefsky – Follow on twitter @ronacesports

2023 NFL DRAFT – DAY TWO – This quick report resets the table for day two of the draft.

Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:

Last year was the deepest draft ever and I was all in for the 42^nd time. With prospects in this draft being so polarizing, and so many new GM’s/coaches, I wasn’t sure what to expect. As the draft neared, I got just as excited. In the end, there were only a few surprises, but as usual, enough drama to write more than the allotted space in this recap.
Before the draft I listed OL, edge rusher and CB as the three positions likely to be targeted early, with RB and TE being deep all the way through. OL surprised many with just five selections. Edge/DT combined contributed a whopping eleven picks. This was a great group. Just four CB’s made the cut.
Many people were surprised with just 15 offensive players chosen. The line was 16.5, with very heavy over action. What happened? Only three QB’s, just one TE, and even OL was down one.
Speaking of QB’s I was thrilled that only three went, but also surprised. Then again, fans and the public often are higher on QB’s than NFL teams. Will Levis, projected at #2, was not drafted. I agree completely with this assessment.
I had 24 players with round one grades. Players from this list not drafted were TE Mayer, CB Porter, and safety Branch.
What players were taken that I had the lowest grade on? ALL picks but one made my top 45. Will McDonald was #50.
Four teams started the draft with multiple 1^st round picks. Houston had picks 2 and 12. I expected edge 1^st, and QB 2^nd. They reversed the process, and I think did it right. Philly was expected to pursue troubled DT Carter. We’ll see how that goes, but they got two good players when fellow Bulldog Nolan Smith was the biggest draft dropper day one. Seattle pulled a shocker, stealing CB Witherspoon from the Lions. After adding WR Smith-Njigba, call this another strong haul for the suddenly relevant Seahawks.
Then there’s the case of the Detroit Lions. RB Gibbs at pick 12 was a shocker. LB Campbell at pick 18 was just as shocking. The Lions love RB’s. Both guys are high character, with great fundamentals. Both are keepers. But Gibbs at 18 and Campbell with a trade up to the early 2^nd round was EASY. Sorry, you missed on a top tier CB or edge rusher.
Other moves I wasn’t crazy about: The Jets and McDonald. As explained, the price they paid in the Rodgers trade cost them one of the top four OL. Still, you left better players on the table. Dallas and Mazi Smith. What was that? Mazi’s good, but rated 40-45 on my board. What about TE, etc? I would have taken CB not WR for Minny, and WR, not edge for KC, but what they did was fine, as they hit needs almost as critical. Overall, not a bad 1^st round at all for the NFL.
Moves I liked: Houston centering on Stroud over Levis and the safer Anderson over Wilson. GB going with Van Ness. I know people wanted a WR, but that crop wasn’t elite and would be available later. Van Ness can defend the run, something GB doesn’t do well, and he offers more than that. Pittsburgh, as explained below. The NYG, filling a need with solidly rated CB Banks. Philly taking Nolan Smith.
Let’s talk trades. The early trades produced no losers. Special notice goes to Pittsburgh, who shocked the Jets by trading ahead of them to get the 4^th of the top four OL. Great move, as I always support protecting young QB’s. The two Jacksonville trades were also fine both ways. The NYG went up one to get Banks. The Bills climbed over Dallas to get athletic TE Kincaid. Dallas left TE Mayer on the table after that, so maybe they only wanted Kincaid?
As for the Jags, please accept my apologies. I thought they would trade up and I was wrong. They got the next best OT, the only thing they could do once the top four were gone. New Orleans also stayed put, another surprise to me.
Safe picks: DE Anderson to Houston, CB Witherspoon to Seattle, and yes, WR Addison to Minny.
The only risky pick is of course, Jalen Carter. It’s rare, but there’s no truly poor fit or concerns otherwise.
What’s next? I expect TE’s, CB’s, interior OL, and some WR’s coming off relatively soon, along with more edge rushers. Last year many QB’s slid to the 3^rd and 4^th round. I expect Levis off in round two, and probably Hooker as well.
Each year in this spot I list players who will be high targets for the next round. On offense, in addition to the QB’s, I have RB Charbonnet, WR’s Hyatt and perhaps Downs and Tillman, TE Mayer, and perhaps Washington, OT Bergeron, OG Torrance, and two centers coming off in round two. On defense, look for DE Deion White and perhaps Derrick Hall, LB/edge, Ojulari, LB’s Sanders and perhaps Trent Simpson, CB Porter and perhaps Kelee Ringo, and safety Brian Branch to be selected relatively quickly. That leaves extra spots for additional RB’s, TE’s, and key defensive positions.
Finally, here are a few of the under the radar players I like, with many of them going later than they should: RB’s Abanikanda and Spears, WR Rashee Rice (other WR’s will go quicker), TE’s Musgrave, LaPorta, Kraft and Kuntz, OT Steen, OG Cody Mauch, DT Pickens, CB Clark Phillips, and Safety Sydney Brown. Many of them will fall to day three.

Let’s get round two started!

BONUS ADDITION:

For the 14^th year in a row, I will include a column entitled “Experts Say”. I’ll be referring to five different analysts that have day two mocks. The mocks I chose are from those who I trust in the field. Absolutely no fluff mocks or “TV” analyst mocks were included. I complete my analysis before I compile what the five analysts say, as I do my part independently and don’t want to be initially influenced. For purposes of this report, my analysts will be called “experts”. I don’t expect perfect matches, but my experts should be able to hone in on team needs and hopefully, player value.

I’ll now go pick by pick, with early impressions from day one, coupled with looks for day two. Feel free to have this report handy while viewing round two to see how everything plays out! There’s even a place where you can insert the actual pick!

32: Pittsburgh

Round one impression: Pittsburgh traded from 17 to 14 to grab the 4^th and last of the top-rated OL in OT Broderick Jones, stunning the Jets. CB was my top need and there were available players at the spot, but protecting a young QB is always important, and there was a drop in talent after Jones.

Round two look: CB is a massive need and the player they could have chosen with the 1^st round pick, Joey Porter is still on the board. Pitt will get a ton of calls for trading back, and that also has to be considered. WR and OL can be considered at pick 49. By the way, CB Ringo was my Intel before the draft. Now that Porter is still on the board, Pitt has some options.

“Experts Say”: 2 for Porter, 2 for Ringo (someone read my preview), and 1 for safety/DB Branch. As I said up top, I do this section AFTER I put in my round two looks for all teams. These respected analysts all agree that CB is the priority.

THE PICK:

33: Arizona

Round one impression: Arizona went from 3 to 12, then from 12 to 6 to get the top-rated OT Paris Johnson. The overall cost this year was losing pick 105 (and gaining a spot from 34 to this pick), but they also received Houston’s 1^st and 3^rd round picks in 2024, which could be high ones. OL was my #1 need for the Cardinals.

Round two look: It may surprise some, but I could double up on OL, or do DL with this pick. At least four OL could be considered, and not DT, but DE’s Hall and Keion White are viable choices too. One longshot need is RB (Charbonnet perhaps).

“Experts Say”: Four picks are at CB, and amazingly they are all for different CB’s. One has interior OL. Unless they trade unhappy CB Budda Baker, then I would likely not go CB, although there are good players available.

THE PICK:

34: Detroit

Round one impression: Weird! The Lions have three picks in this round, getting this one when they traded from 6 to 12. At pick 12, they drafted RB Gibbs, who had a draft range of 28-35, and MOST CERTAINLY would have been available at pick 18 (Tampa was at 19). With pick 18, they took LB Jack Campbell, who had a draft rating about 36-42, and was NOT a round one consideration on 95% of mocks, and needless to say, not a top 25 consideration at all. The Lions, who have a strange fetish for RB’s, got a good one in Gibbs, basically rendering the Montgomery pickup meaningless. Traditional LB’s like Campbell are not valued in today’s game, but he’s built like a Lion, and will fit with the culture. What he can’t do is go sideline to sideline. I know they coveted CB Witherspoon, but please, don’t make moves that lack value. Get LB Van Ness or a CB, or perhaps stay at 6 and get Edge rusher Wilson, THEN take Gibbs at 18 and Campbell here (or if you got Wilson, you’re fine, or can trade up with so many remaining day two picks. Detroit got two starters in old school positions, but should have accomplished much more.

Round two look: The Lions have picks 34, 48 and 55 in this round, and now it’s time to actually make a pick in areas on their need board! My 1^st choice would be TE Mayer, but DE’s Hall and White could be considered, as there are plenty of TE’s they can choose from a bit later. Safety Brian Branch also fills a need. Detroit, be proactive!

“Experts Say”: The experts have five completely different players and four different positions, so let’s discuss. Edge rusher Keion White is a GO! OG/OT Avila is a NO GO. Are we really going all Vegas (Raiders) with a draft of less meaningful positions? The same is true for OG Torrance, who has a range about now. I would endorse TE Mayer with ease. The final suggestion is DT Benton (Wisconsin), which is actually a strong need as well, but I’d prefer him later this round.

THE PICK:

35: Indy

Round one impression: Indy may or may not have wanted QB Stroud, but they certainly fooled most people when they took QB Richardson with the 4^th pick instead of Will Levis. Time will tell if this will work out, but I was happy Levis was not the pick.

Round two look: This HAS to be for CB, a position that cried for help, although most “analysts” say CB is fine. I disagree. Porter, Cam Smith, or Georgia’s Ringo are all acceptable choices for me.

“Experts Say”: Three votes for OT Bergeron and two votes for CB. I’d go CB, but Bergeron fits a need and has this draft range.

THE PICK:

36: LA Rams

Round one impression: No pick. This was the final piece of the trade for QB Stafford.

Round two look: You name it, the Rams need it. I think this could go in five or six different directions. Just get a good player.

“Experts Say”: Five different positions, which tells me that LA has multiple needs. Let’s discuss. Safety Branch carries value and need. OT Bergeron does the same. QB Hooker is interesting, but with so many needs, I don’t do this. TE Musgrave is properly slotted here, but I want other positions 1^st, with Higbee already here. CB Porter would be solid need and value.

THE PICK:

37: Seattle

Round one impression: Seattle shocked the Lions by taking CB Witherspoon at pick 5, and took the 1^st WR off the board at pick 20 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both DB and WR were lower rated needs on my board, but the players in retrospect are great additions. The secondary is really coming together, and Smith-Njigba makes Seattle really dangerous at WR, and a likely capable replacement if D.K. Metcalf is not going to be retained down the road (I estimate salary issues).

Round two look: This is a good spot to go OG, as the OL still suffered in pass protection. OLB would be another need.

“Experts Say”: The picks are divided between OL and DL. Versatile DL Adetomiwa Adebawore gets two votes. I prefer OL.

THE PICK:

38: Las Vegas

Round one impression: Better than usual. Edge rusher Tyree Wilson (pick 7) has a bust component, which has to be a concern, but his 2022 NCAA season is certainly reason for optimism. Vegas has multiple needs defensively, and this is just a start.

Round two look: Vegas has a crying need for a “safe, reliable” OL. The centers remaining on the OL board, plus OG Torrance are probably the safest way to go. If they want another option, LB’s Sanders and Simpson could be considered.

“Experts Say”: Split decisions here, with a vote each for QB’s Levis and Hooker, plus one each for LB Simpson, center Schmitz and CB Porter. I’d understand them going Levis, although this current OL would not support the slower processing QB.

THE PICK:

39: Carolina

Round one impression: Carolina opened the draft by taking QB Bryce Young. Now, surround him with talent and protection.

Round two look: You drafted your (hopefully) long-term QB, so now it’s time to protect him. Right tackle or OG should be a strong consideration, but like with Vegas, round two LB’s are fine to draft, and the Panthers have needs at this position.

“Experts Say”: Three votes for WR (Mingo twice) and one for an edge rusher and the other for an OG. All five are decent players. I’d wait on the WR pick, at least for this team.

THE PICK:

40: New Orleans

Round one impression: I was shocked the Saints didn’t make a splash round one trade, but perhaps they tried to (I’ll find that out later on). DT was my #1 area of need and at pick 29, Bryan Bresee fit the bill. It’s not a splash pick, but it fills a need.

Round two look: I won’t be surprised if the Saints inquire about moving way up in this round. LB and CB are high on my list, followed by DE. Some may speculate WR or TE (I’ll see what the “experts” say AFTER I finish all the teams in round two). These are also needs, but further down my board. The splash guys left on most people’s board after the 1^st round are WR Hyatt, TE Mayer, CB Porter and safety Branch. If they stay, LB or CB would be my 1^st looks.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for TE Mayer, two votes for a WR, and the remaining vote for OG Torrance. Once again, players mocked to the Saints are all decently rated, so I won’t be upset if they deviate from my board unless they choose other guys.

THE PICK:

41: Tennessee

Round one impression: No trade up to the 3^rd pick ever materialized, perhaps because a) they wanted QB Stroud, or b) Houston outbid them for Arizona’s pick. OL was my #1 need, so adding versatile OL Peter Skoronski at pick 12 works for me.

Round two look: WR and a common theme, LB are my top two remaining needs, although at some point I think Tennessee should double up at OL. You’ll notice that I haven’t yet listed QB for ANY team. I’m okay f the Titans draft Levis or Hooker here. I don’t expect Tannehill to be on the 2024 roster, and 2023 draftee Willis is not the current answer.

“Experts Say”: Two edge rushers, two votes for QB Levis, and the final vote for TE Mayer. Once again, the mockers have come up with good team-positional fits, and that’s why I prefer my articles to have advice from sources such as the ones I use.

THE PICK:

42: Green Bay

Round one impression: GB claims they had someone in mind when they “asked” the Jets to go from pick 13 to pick 15 in the Rodgers deal. They targeted OLB/edge Lukas Van Ness, who can get to opposing QB’s but still has much to learn. For where they were in the draft, this was an acceptable pick.

Round two look: TE needs to be addressed here, or with pick #45. DL can be hit again, otherwise safety (Branch only at this point in the draft), WR or OL would be the other looks.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for TE Mayer, and a vote each for interior OL, safety Branch and WR (Tillman). Obviously, I would like Mayer, but will they need to trade up to get him? The same may be true for Branch, since the rest of the group is more of the 3^rd round variety. Overall, all the experts agree with me on the positions I’d look at.

THE PICK:

43: NYJ

Round one impression: Looking for an OT, the Jets got squeezed out of the picture when Pittsburgh moved up from 17 to 14. They ended up with DE Will McDonald, who carried a round two draft grade. The positional focus (once the OL were gone) was fine, but after a 2022 draft where the Jets dominated with value picks, this 1^st foray into the 2023 draft was not as good.

Round two look: The Jets failed to survey the landscape in round one, and New England, a bitter rival, enabled Pittsburgh to grab the OT they coveted. OL is the #1 need and must be addressed, but unless they go with a center, I’m not opposed to a small trade back considering after this pick the Jets will only have three remaining selections.

“Experts Say”: Three votes all over the OL, plus a vote for LB Sanders and TE Musgrave. I have the OL is the team’s weak link.

THE PICK:

44: Atlanta

Round one impression: Ok, I understand. RB Bijan Robinson (8^th pick) is someone special, and worth a top tier selection. Just promise me that the next 65 picks will be pass rushers. My Intel had them looking hard at edge rusher Derrick Hall, and that fits here. I’ll skewer you if they go elsewhere (most likely).

Round two look: If this is not for and edge rusher I give up! Don’t you want to make life easier for your secondary?

“Experts Say”: Two votes for edge rusher Deion White and one for Derrick Hall. I’m not interested in any other position!

THE PICK:

45: Green Bay

Round one impression: See pick 42, above

Round two look: See pick 42, above. TE has to be one of the two picks, and then the other pick could as be described above.

“Experts Say”: Two WR’s, two TE’s and safety Branch. Combined, that’s four of five mockers who say TE at either pick 42 or 45, and three for WR, plus two for safety Branch.

THE PICK:

46: New England

Round one impression: Poised to look in a number of different directions, the Pats traded pick 14 to Pittsburgh for this pick (17) and pick 120. Young CB Christian Gonzalez was selected, which is my 3^rd area of need, but 1^st for the defense. I never bought into him being a top ten player, but this draft slot is more than fair.

Round two look: NE now has a whopping 12 picks in this draft. Make a splash or two and start trading UP for better talent. You could double up with safety Branch, or look RG/center or WR. Make this pick count.

“Experts Say”: It’s NE, so we get five differing opinions! WR Downs would be decent. LB Sanders carries value here. So does edge rusher White, but I’d like to go elsewhere with this pick. Interior OL Avila carries the positional versatility that Belichick covets. TE Washington also carries value, but again, I would go with another position.

THE PICK:

47: Washington

Round one impression: CB Emmanuel Forbes was gaining steady traction the week before the draft, and unseated CB’s Banks, Gonzalez, and Porter to become the 2^nd overall CB drafted (#16). I love the positional focus, and with not that much difference in skill set from the other CB’s maybe this works out, similar to WR Dotson being chosen ahead of some WR’s in 2022.

Round two look: This is another team where if they go QB it would not bother me. My other choice is OL and that is it!

“Experts Say”: Two for OG, plus QB Hooker, a DE, and TE Washington. I’m in alignment with much of this.

THE PICK:

48: Detroit

Round one impression: See pick 34, above

Round two look: See pick 34, above. I HAVE to see Detroit get at least two of the players noted at pick 34. I think we will see a trade up in this round, and will be shocked if that doesn’t happen. It’s time to draft at positions that move the NFL win needle.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for TE Washington, two votes at CB, and one vote for WR. Based on these experts, TE Washington’s range seems to be in the late 40’s. Based on day one, tuning in for Detroit’s actual pick might be must watch TV.

THE PICK:

49: Pittsburgh

Round one impression: See pick 32, above

Round two look: Ideally, Pitt took Porter (or CB Ringo, the guy my Intel says they want), and then use this pick for a WR.

“Experts Say”: Three votes for DT (two for Benton), one vote for LB and one for OT. No mention of WR?

THE PICK:

50: Tampa

Round one impression: Tampa like it or not, has to start rebuilding, especially along the front seven. They used the 19^th pick to select DT Kancey. I wouldn’t have gone DT, with many positional needs more critical, but Kancey is a fine player, prepping at Pittsburgh, where their DT’s can be quite disruptive.

Round two look: This isn’t 35-year-old veteran Tom Brady behind center, so the need for OL has to be addressed. I could see them going QB here, this being the 3^rd team where that might be an option for me. Regardless, Tampa has work to do if they want to avoid falling behind the times.

“Experts Say”: Two exact votes for speedy CB Turner, but I’m tired of Tampa’s passive zone scheme and the very light Jones is a zone CB. DL, edge and TE were the other looks, but again, this team needs massive OL rebuilding and that’s my preference.

THE PICK:

51: Miami

Round one impression: No pick, Ultimately, they lost a pick threw trades, and their own pick was voided due to tampering.

Round two look: Through 2022 trades and two years of free agency, I like the players Miami have added to the roster. The 2022 draft was a dud. The interior OL has to be addressed, and this pick is a good spot to do it.

“Experts Say”: Two exact votes for RB Achane, who I noted in my NFL Draft Storylines article was a person of interest here. The other votes are two for TE and one for LB Simpson. Simpson’s a fit, as is Achane, although OL just seems like the top need.

THE PICK:

52: Seattle

Round one impression: See pick 37, above

Round two look: If they didn’t go OG at pick 37, it has to be done now. If not, a pick for the best available defensive player in the front seven would be my choice.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for LB Sanders and two votes for OG, with the 5^th vote for edge rusher Hall. I like all the choices.

THE PICK:

53: Chicago

Round one impression: The Bears made an unusual trade with Philly, moving down from pick 9 to pick 10, while obtaining a 4^th round pick in the 2024 draft. Regardless, it was (or should have been) evident that the Bears needed OL help, and they chose a RT, Darnell Wright over the versatile, local product Peter Skoronski. Either way, Justin Fields thanks you.

Round two look: OL, DL and CB should be the focus. I have four remaining CB’s that carry draft grades at or better than this spot, so that’s a good look if one of them remain.

“Experts Say”: Two DL, and RB, center and CB. The areas covered would work as long as the players chosen had proper value.

THE PICK:

54: LA Chargers

Round one impression: I sadly knew LA was not interested in Zay Flowers at pick 21, even though his fit with the other WR’s on the team was ideal. LA doesn’t value WR speed as much as most teams. I, like most people, though WR Addison was coming here, but the bigger Quintin Johnson was the guy. Most people liked WR as the right move, but not me, unless it was for Flowers. Johnson has massive upside (still learning route running), but his disappointing game vs. Georgia set him back.

Round two look: All five of my bolded needs remain. Please take the best available player in one of these spots.

“Experts Say”: Two CB’s, DT, edge rusher, and RB Charbonnet, who would be an exciting fit here. I wouldn’t go with CB Turner, but CB Can Smith would work, as would DT Benton.

THE PICK:

55: Detroit

Round one impression: See pick 34, above

Round two look: If there’s no trade, this is Detroit’s 3^rd pick in the 2^nd round. Look above for what I think they should do.

“Experts Say”: Two for CB Cam Smith, and one for edge rusher Hall, TE LaPorta, and QB Levis. If they haven’t gone TE yet, LaPorta is a nice fit.

THE PICK:

56: Jacksonville

Round one impression: I never expected the Jags to trade down, and they did it twice, with one and two positional drops. In the end, they turned pick 25 into picks 28, 130, 160 and 240. Looking OT, their clear #1 need, they read the market right and took OT Harrison, who had a draft range for me of 28-35. I’ll guess they tried to move up, but in the end got a nice draft haul.

Round two look: Armed with extra ammunition now, I can give the Jags the green light to trade UP, but only if they get a splash player in return. CB and DE are my needs. I’d go UP for a CB, and perhaps up for DE if the next available players start coming off the board, as the Jags should not want to settle for lower-level talent.

“Experts Say”: Two TE’s, and lower rated players at CB, safety and RB. I’m not all that thrilled with the players the experts tabbed here, and also not that comfortable with going TE or RB in this spot. I’ll stick with (a better) CB or a DE.

THE PICK:

57: NYG

Round one impression: This draft team came over from Buffalo, and they know how to do things. Yes, they traded three for one (24 for 25, 160, 240), a bit pricey, but CB was a MAJOR need, and the NYG still have a total of eight picks. Banks was not only properly drafted, but he likely starts right away.

Round two look: Unless the NYG think there’s still a WR1 left on the board, how about filling this spot with an interior OL. Bonus thought: The NYG also have picks 69 and 100. Maybe trade THIS pick for WR Hopkins (Arizona), and use pick 69 for my sleeper interior OL (Cody Mauch), or if they drop, center’s Schmitz or Tippmann. That’s just food for thought.

“Experts Say”: This is interesting, as two votes are for center Tippmann and two votes are for center Schmitz. We are in lockstep alignment, as they copied my notes above. Going WR works only because I like Jalen Hyatt, the suggested choice.

THE PICK:

58: Dallas

Round one impression: You know the drill. My word for Jerry Jones is inertia. They talk a big game, but have been passive for several draft cycles. IF they were interested in TE Kincaid, (Bills say they had Intel) they missed out when the Bills jumped ahead of them. With TE Mayer still available, and more of a Dallas prototype TE, the Cowboys instead went for DT Mazi Smith, who carried a 2^nd round grade. Maybe it was too early to go after their top needs (OG/OC and MLB), but why not Mayer?

Round two look: There’s still plenty of day two TE talent in this solid TE draft class. Dallas has other choices as well, such as OL, MLB and RB. If they get a highly rated player in any of these areas then that could work for me.

“Experts Say”: Three specific votes for TE LaPorta, plus a vote for an interior OL and LB Simpson. This fits with what I said!

THE PICK:

59: Buffalo

Round one impression: Last year the Bills went up three spots to make sure they got a CB, as one had just come off the board. This year they went from 27 to 25, putting pick 130 in the deal and selected TE Kincaid. This was my 5^th and final need area for Buffalo, and not on my radar screen as to a round one need. Kincaid carries a round one grade, but I thought the front seven would be addressed with this pick. Tough call, as only edge rushers Murphy or Nolan Smith carried a better grade.

Round two look: Round two is ripe for traditional LB’s in today’s game, and I have three LB’s that carry value if available at this pick. OG or WR are lesser needs and could be addressed, but I see LB as far and away the bigger need.

“Experts Say”: All over the place, with OT, LB, edge, DT and WR. LB Simpson was noted, and if he’s available that’s my choice.

THE PICK:

60: Cincinnati

Round one impression: Speaking of edge rusher Murphy, that was Cincy’s pick at #29. I think they liked the athleticism of TE Kincaid, but he was gone. They may also have taken RB Gibbs, but he was long gone. OL was another consideration, but the top five were gone. I’d have gone CB, safety Branch, or TE Mayer. Murphy however, does fit what I said in the NFL storylines article I recently sent out, and that’s GM Tobin liking the best player available approach. Murphy’s draft range was 25-30.

Round two look: Although I am fine with Murphy, Cincy’s top four needs are CB, RB, TE and safety. Safety is out if Branch is gone, although I personally like Sydney or Ji’ayir Brown. Maybe one of the top five remaining CB’s fall here. Lots of quality TE’s remain. As for RB, I’m not opposed to drafting one here (or in round three) and letting Mixon go.

“Experts Say”: Two CB’s (Cam Smith the only one I like), two for RB Charbonnet (great) and one for OT Jones (also fits). I certainly wouldn’t be upset if the pick was for one of the top six or seven TE’s either.

THE PICK:

61: Chicago

Round one impression: See pick 53, above

Round two look: See pick 53, above

“Experts Say”: Two DL, two CB’s and an edge rusher. That’s fine, but if they decide to double up along the OL, that’s fine too.

THE PICK:

62: Philly

Round one impression: Howie Roseman likes his DL to be fresh and deep, rotating them more than any other team. That made DT Carter a good fit here, as I would (on the field) worry about his snap count. Perhaps they can motivate him as well. The trade from 10 to 9 was far easier than expected, as the Eagles only gave up a 2024 4^th round selection. Last year they stopped the big nosedive of LB Dean late in middle of the 3^rd round. This year, they grabbed high character edge rusher Nolan Smith at pick 30. That value, and talent. NOTE: All three of these players are from Georgia, a team that knows how to win games.

Round two look: Philly has this pick, pick, 94, and then just two very late picks, so a trade back could be considered. Safety, OL and another WR would be my considerations here. OL might need to be addressed now, but the other two areas could still be ripe to go after with that small trade back.

“Experts Say”: Two LB, two CB’s and a WR. I’m not in sync with the experts here, and prefer do deviate from all their choices.

THE PICK:

63: KC

Round one impression: I thought I could go a whole 1^st round without worrying about name pronunciation, but KC ruined that, as with pick 31 they selected K St edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah. That’s need #3 on my board, but if Curtis Dunlap leaves, I’m okay with the player and position. I thought they would go WR, but with this crop, it’s likely just fine for them to wait.

Round two look: WR or run-stopper are my looks here. KC still has nine remaining picks. I would easily trade up to get a WR of choice considering there are not ten spots left on their roster. Let’s see what KC has in mind.

“Experts Say”: Five of five for WR, with Tyler Scott leading the way with two votes. Let’s do this!

THE PICK:

Below is the list of teams currently without picks in round two. They will be listed in draft order using the same recap and evaluation process as the teams above. NOTE: FOUR OF MY FIVE MOCKERS HAVE ROUND THREE DRAFT SELECTIONS.

65 (and 73): Houston

Round one impression: Am I really saying well done to a GM and organization that has made for comedic and tragic moments in my past draft reports? I was scared that they would go with the wrong QB and wrong edge rusher at picks 2 and 12, and did believe that they would go edge 1^st. Instead, they went Stroud 1^st, and in a massive trade, moved up from 12 to 3 to get the safest player in this draft, Will Anderson. I know the price was steep, giving up pick 33, plus a 1^st and 3^rd in 2024 (they also received pick 104 in this draft), but listen to this. I only liked two QB’s in the 1^st round, and Stroud was one of them. Does he pan out? QB’s have a bad hit rate, but his body of work is promising. Meanwhile, Will Anderson checks all the boxes for being a ten-year starter and contributor. He’s the Sauce Gardner of the draft (though not quite as elite) as opposed to the CB Stingley pick from 2022, which carried obvious risk, just like edge rusher Wilson would in my eyes. If this has anything to do with new Head Coach Ryans, Houston, I like how you “may” be more grounded now, and this could be something special.

Round three look: So far, so good. The next moves should be for their interior OL and WR. Will they again shock the world with some well thought out picks? The only other area I’d look at would be DB, where depth is a real issue.

“Experts Say”: Combining the two draft slots, three of four experts listed WR, with two CB’s the only other multiple position. WR makes perfect sense, and CB can work, but one mocker said OC Tippman, and I might go that way over CB.

THE PICK:

67 (and 68): Denver

Round one impression: No pick. Part of the draft capital used to get Russell Wilson. Denver did have another 1^st round pick in the trade of Bradley Chubb, but that pick was used to obtain Head Coach Sean Payton.

Round three look: SIDE NOTE: In the last few years, teams that have spent the most in any one year on free agents have seen stout improvement (Jacksonville in 2022 for example). Denver won the free agency crown this year. The coaching staff is better, but now we’ll see if the draft can fill additional holes. I’m writing this as if this team will stay at picks 67 and 68, but even with just five picks, I know Payton comes from an organization where they liked to trade up. Maybe they use 2024 draft capital to make that move. LB, DE, OG and DB are my top four areas of need.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for LB Overshown, two votes for edge rusher Diaby, two CB votes, plus interior OL and DT. I like the focus of the mockers, so hopefully Denver will have that same focus.

THE PICK:

74 (and 98): Cleveland

Round one impression: No pick. Part of the price they paid for QB Watson.

Round three look: It sounds funny, but Cleveland really doesn’t need that much of a talent boost, as this roster has plenty of depth from past drafts. I’d prefer them changing stripes and getting a BIG LB, as the run defense really let them down a year ago. This is another team that could use an interior OL. DE is also an area where talent could be added.

“Experts Say”: Three votes of the eight were for edge, with Isaiah McGuire mocked once at pick 74 and once at pick 98. The fit of RB Achane to this team is really spot on. There was another RB tab at pick 98, and a pair of DT tabs. Mostly, there was no mention of ANY of my preferred areas. Achane is nice, but LB and/or interior OL are preferred choices for me.

THE PICK:

86: Baltimore

Round one impression: I thought trading BACK would have been nice, but instead the Ravens took electric WR Zay Flowers at pick 22. While that was big ($$$) for me, it’s also a great move for the Ravens. Literally, average coach John Harbaugh has no more excuses. They have three viable (actually good to great) potential TE’s and the WR room is night and day different with Bateman back from injury, and Beckham and Flowers added. Flowers caught numerous off-target throws at Boston College and the potential here is enormous. All four day one WR’s went to teams that work for me. Lamar, this could be good.

Round three look: With WR fully addressed, Baltimore can concentrate on OG and CB. That’s all the focus I want here.

“Experts Say”: Two CB’s a LB and a guard, all with acceptable ratings. I like the fits that were suggested.

THE PICK:

87: Minnesota

Round one impression: I had four bolded needs for the Vikings, and WR was need #4. I like the fit of WR Addison with QB Cousins, and do believe he can be ready as a rookie. The defense has massive holes, especially at CB, which would have been the direction I went with this pick, but again, this fit works.

Round three look: While a stout nose tackle would help, my clear #1 need is CB, even with the addition of Byron Murphy.

“Experts Say”: Two votes for QB Hendon Hooker, and two votes for my preference, CB. I understand the Hooker choice for this team, so let’s just say it’s Hooker or a CB in my book, which aligns with the mockers.

THE PICK:

99 (and picks 101, 102): San Francisco

Round one impression: No pick. Part of the deal for QB Trey Lance.

Round three look: Maybe after this year the 49ers will treat the draft a bit more seriously, at least for the early rounds. They have eleven picks, and like with KC, they do not have eleven roster spots to fill. I’d clearly trade UP to get a 2^nd round DB, and that really must happen. If they make three picks, I’d go DB, OL and LB. By the end of this draft, I want two DB’s and two OL, and when I say that, I mean decently rated players at these positions and not roster fillers.

“Experts Say”: I’m somehow combining all these picks into a blog of 15 since they are all so closely together. So here we go. Three went for OL (two for Nick Saldiveri), three chose safety, three chose CB (two for Jakorian Bennett), two chose TE and one went edge rusher. With all this Intel, I want them to go DB and OL for sure with two of these picks, but I still wouldn’t go TE with the 3^rd unless we got a draft dropper. Maybe use the 3^rd pick on either a 2^nd DB as suggested, or the best available player at any position, with LB the strongest look. Of the players noted, the ones I like the best are safety Marte Mapu, who can actually play some LB, safety Sydney Brown, safety Ji’Ayir Brown, and CB Riley Moss.

THE PICK:

ENJOY DAY TWO OF THE NFL DRAFT!

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NHL Preview & Picks – April 27th, 2023

Patrick Gates

April 26, 2023

There are three games taking place tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at. Also, if you want a complete preview of tonight’s games you can check out the latest Expected Bets For Live Stream that we did yesterday.

Matchups:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Toronto Maple Leafs (3) – Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Tampa Bay Lightning	+130	+135	+1.5 (-195)	o6.5 (-115)
Toronto Maple Leafs	-150	-155	-1.5 (+165)	u6.5 (-105)

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils

Time: 7:30 PM ET
Series: New York Rangers (2) – New Jersey Devils (2)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
New York Rangers	-110	+100	+1.5 (-260)	o5.5 (+100)
New Jersey Devils	-110	-120	-1.5 (+220)	u5.5 (-120)

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

Time: 10:00 PM ET
Series: Vegas Golden Knights (3) – Winnipeg Jets (1)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Vegas Golden Knights	+130	+160	+1.5 (-170)	o6 (+105)
Winnipeg Jets	-150	-190	-1.5 (+145)	u6 (-125)

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

Ryan O’Reilly over 0.5 Points (-134) – FanDuel
Ryan O’Reilly over 0.5 Powerplay Points (+215) – FanDuel [Risk 0.5 Units]

O’Reilly has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Tampa Bay. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games. He’s been an incredible pick-up for this team that has the opportunity to advance to the second round tonight. While O’Reilly is on the third line, his ice time has been increasing steadily during this series due to his production. He also plays a crucial role on their top Powerplay line which has been given multiple opportunities in each game this series.

Chris Kreider over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings

Kreider has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against New Jersey. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games. Historically, Chris Kreider loves playing against the Devils tallying a point in each of his last eleven games against them!

After winning the first two games of this series the Rangers find themselves all square with the Devils dropping back-to-back games at MSG. In their two most recent games, the Rangers only scored once in each game. New York’s been better on the road all season so I expect them to put together a much stronger effort tonight. He’s also on their top Powerplay which has struggled in the past two games going 0/8 combined. I think New York leans on its top guys tonight to propel them to a victory in Game 5.

Neal Pionk over 0.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
Neal Pionk over 0.5 Powerplay Points (+260) – FanDuel [Risk 0.5 Units]

Pionk has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Vegas. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.

Josh Morrissey is out so Neal Pionk has become the main guy on the Powerplay up top. He’s gone over this line in each of the past three games. In his most recent game, he had two points. Winnipeg’s Powerplay has been one of their bright spots this series converting in every game so far. The Jets currently rank 2nd in the playoffs with a percentage of 41.7. Given Winnipeg’s success, the Golden Knights rank 15th in Penalty Kill in the postseason. Vegas also struggled in this area during the regular season ranking 19th of 32.

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

William Nylander over 0.5 Points (-180) – DraftKings
- Nylander has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Tampa Bay. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.

Brayden Point over 0.5 Points (-180) – DraftKings
- Point has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Toronto. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.

Patrick Kane over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
- Kane has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against New Jersey. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.

Erik Haula over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-190) – DraftKings
- Erik Haula has gone over this number in three of the first four games of their series against New York. During that span, he’s averaging 2.0 shots on goal and 4.3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in each of the last six games.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

2023 NFL DRAFT STORYLINES

ronace2477@aol.com

April 26, 2023

By Ron Marmalefsky – Follow on twitter @ronacesports

Last year brought us the best ever draft class in term of quantity, all thanks to the large number of post-Covid “Super Senior” eligible players. 2023 is still full of “overaged” players who had that extra year of eligibility, but those who stayed for a 6^th season this time around lack the same level of on-field credentials as compared to 2022.

SPECIAL NOTE: This is one of the deepest RB classes I’ve seen in at least a decade. It’s not that much different at the top of the board, but I think we’ll see 10-12 starters (or shared workload starters) out of this group, and maybe more. Other positions of depth include TE, edge rusher and to some extent, CB. WR is way down this year, especially as compared to some incredible classes from the past several seasons. I’m also not high on the OG group, traditional LB group and especially the safety group.

On to the draft. Going in draft order, here’s where things stand with each team less than 72 hours before the draft, with my Intel and comments, plus some of my thoughts about later rounds and/or general draft thoughts. As this draft looks to be a relatively highly volatile draft, expect some surprises. Remember, we have plenty of new GM’s and coaches at the top of the board. NOTE: Most of this report was written on Monday Night and Tuesday morning, with the Intel I had at the time.

Carolina: The Panthers made the bold trade up for a QB and now it’s 99% clear who there are going to pick. Bryce Young is the most instinctive QB in this draft, and now just needs to prove that size does NOT matter. REST OF THE DRAFT: Carolina has just five remaining picks, so we’ll see if they trade out of pick 39 or 93. LB (Ojulari) or OL (Avila) are interesting targets, but the Panthers may be thinking TE in this spot. There’s been no pattern to their “secret” visits and intentions thus far.

Houston: Good luck EVER thinking Houston will draft in a conventional manner. As noted in this report a year ago, my Intel showed them going after CB Stingley, which was accurate. As of now, we’re looking at edge rusher (Anderson or Wilson) or QB (Stroud or Levis). As of Monday night, let’s guess Levis or Wilson. These are the riskier choices, right up their alley.

Arizona: Arizona will get two types of trade calls: Those looking for edge rusher, and those looking for a QB. I’ve heard reports of teams trading up for OT Paris Johnson, or even Arizona taking him. If I’m Arizona, I reiterate that my BEST move is enticing Indy to move up one spot, therefore ensuring I get one of the top two edge rushers. Tyree Wilson is now the betting favorite to go ahead of Will Anderson, but this team needs the safer player, which is Anderson. If they trade further down, I think they reverse course and go OL in the 1^st Nine of the 21 private visits I have confirmation on were for the OL, so the Cardinals appear serious about fixing this unit. REST OF THE DRAFT: Keep in mind that we could see a trade of WR Hopkins and/or CB Budda Baker. In addition to OL and DL, look for them to add RB and CB in this draft.

Indy: The Colts and GM Ballard have fallen off the draft map of late, so this draft needs to hit. Indy worked out seven QB’s, so it’s not a secret that the Colts are looking QB in this draft. They’ve met with the top QB’s more than once, and attended all the workouts. Is this Levis or Stroud? Someone could leapfrog them to spoil their top choice. My guess (not Intel) is that Indy wanted Levis, thinking Stroud may not be available, and now might be comfortable with either. I’ll keep digging for the truth. REST OF THE DRAFT: I lack Intel for pick 35, but CB needs to be in play. I’d go CB here, and WR, perhaps Rashee Rice at pick 79. Want some late round dart throws? I’ve got four of them, from UAB, Houston, GT and Gardner Webb!

Seattle: Seattle killed the draft in rare conventional form a year ago, and once again has two early picks in this draft. Another strong draft will give them long term stability. QB is often mentioned here, or at pick 20, but I am not going that route. I think they wouldn’t mind trading back a bit (Philly?) and getting an OLB/edge rusher later on if Wilson and Anderson are off the board. The name Nolan Smith comes to mind. Interior OL is a need but not at pick five? Seattle typically is in deception mode heading into the draft, but I sense an urgency in looking edge rusher (or DT Carter?) based on my snooping around.

Detroit: Like Seattle, Detroit has a golden opportunity, with five of the top 85 picks, including picks 6 and 18. They can seize control of a division in flux with a focused draft. There are conflicting reports as to the fit of troubled DT Jalen Carter, but after all the outrage with players and front office staff suspended and/or fired for gambling on site, the better plan is to veer away from a guy whose work ethic and maturity is below what it should be. They would love Will Anderson to drop to them, but if he doesn’t, at least one of the top two CB’s will be available.

Las Vegas: GM Ziegler flopped in his 1^st draft with the Raiders, but this year he has a full load of picks (12), whereas last year he used picks to acquire WR Adams. Vegas met with the top five QB’s, ignored the OL, and while they did show interest in a large number of CB’s, the ones they met with are not expected to go in the 1^st two rounds. I’m missing some of their secret meetings, which limits my overall game plan for this team. With Jimmy G here, why go QB? With 12 picks, they won’t need to move down. Do they take a chance on Jalen Carter? This is VEGAS, and Carter playing in this city is a suspension waiting to happen. I’ve heard they like CB Porter, but pick 7 seems high. I’m comfortable with 12 picks becoming 8 or 9, but only if they draft rated players along the OL and throughout the defense. Sadly, I lack current Intel for what they do with this pick.

Atlanta: I just don’t care! People say QB, DB, OL, etc, but until they draft multiple edge rushers the Falcons will continue to squander late leads, and continue to underachieve. Guys they could look at to help the pass rush are Myles Murphy and Lukas Van Ness. Sadly, they may look elsewhere early, and use pick 44 for someone like Derick Hall, who flashes some pass rush skill but has been stiff turning the corner. REST OF THE DRAFT: Three things I think I’ve learned. Atlanta is serious about adding a WR. They’ll add at least one, and maybe a sleeper WR late. 2. Atlanta will add a safety in this draft. Both Sydney Brown and Jamie Robinson are acceptable 3^rd round targets in my eyes. 3. Atlanta will ultimately disappoint me in this draft. I want two PROVEN edge rushers. I won’t get that, and if history repeats itself, we’ll see 2-3 wasted picks.

Chicago: We’re starting to learn about how GM Poles operates a draft room. Last year they turned five picks into 11, and this year they moved from pick #1 all the way down to this spot, securing extra early draft capital, plus a stout WR. I’ve heard trades out of this pick as well, but with ten picks already, why do that? My mantra with young QB’s is protect your investment. To that end, I’d go get OT Johnson or OT/OG Skoronski here, but I can’t find evidence that the Bears have spoken to the Northwestern OL other than at his Pro Day. Chicago would also be a contender to select Jalen Carter, but only if he drops to this spot. CB is a need I’d also consider, but most of Chicago’s private visits in this area were with day three guys. REST OF THE DRAFT: Last year I complemented the Bears on adding FOUR OL, but unfortunately, three were not NFL worthy. That’s why the need remains. With picks 53, 61 and 64, Chicago can add a 2^nd OL with ease. In fact, my draft would be OL, DL, CB, OL, all by pick 64! Dewand Jones is the only OL they’ve shown interest in who fits in the 53-64 draft range. About a third of their private meetings have been with OL, but some of those meetings have been with players not of NFL caliber.

Philly: Philly owns picks 10 and 30, and it would shock me if they stayed at both spots. 1^st, they are famous for jumping over another team to take the player that team coveted (Baltimore last year for example). 2^nd, Philly has only six picks overall, and after pick 94, their only remaining picks are at 219 and 248. Free agency saw Philly part with many a player, but that was expected. OL and DL were the hardest hit, and now are the favorites to be addressed with their 1^st I too believe OL or DL will be the play, with a trade up for Jalen Carter, or a stay in place for a top-level OL. Philly has had private meetings with at least seven OL/DL who could be considered at this spot. In addition, they are one of only two teams that RB Bijan Robinson met with. There’s no right answer here, but at +190, DL seems like a bit of a value play.

Tennessee: I have lots of info about Tennessee, but still do not know what this 1^st year GM is planning to do. My needs for them are 2-3 OL, 2 WR’s, ILB and DL. At one point the draft community was all abuzz about them moving up to pick #3, but for a new GM, that’s not typical. They’ve lost more than they gained in free agency and only have six draft picks. Both OL Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright are candidates to be selected with this pick. Maybe they get lucky and draft a draft dropping WR in round two. Expectations are that QB Tannehill and RB Henry will remain on the roster, but they could look to draft their replacements this year. REST OF THE DRAFT: I have no specific Intel, but players they may look at in the 3^rd round are RB Spears and TE Tucker Kraft. If I’m the GM, I target 3-4 players at picks 41 and 72, and if at least two remain on the board, then I trade DOWN, eventually turning six picks into eight. Their past GM would not do it. DRAFT NUGGET: The new GM went to the University of Florida and is a fan of the program. Might a Florida player be drafted? I say yes.

Houston: Past practice has been to trade UP (needlessly) from this spot. If they go for edge rusher early, then I could easily see a trade up to get one of the top QB’s, including Richardson from Florida. If it’s not going to be a QB, my Intel has me thinking the following players, in this order: WR Smith-Njigba, edge rusher Murphy, or Safety Branch. All this might be too “conventional” for this organization. I think they put off the OL need until the 3^rd round, but I do think all these areas will be covered at some point in this draft. Houston has 12 overall picks. For teams like KC, GB in the past, and others, I’d turn 12 picks into eight, moving up for ready to go talent. For Houston, I want all 12 picks, or at least 11. Sadly, that may not happen.

Green Bay: The Packers looked at every position in preparation for this draft, which deviates from past practice. Based on my Intel, DE, WR and TE were the positions that stood out in their overall interest. OT Darnell Wright is also a person of interest and could be their choice in this spot. With now eleven picks after the Rodgers trade, we could see a trade up to get a specific player. NOTE: The big trade included moving UP from 15 to 13 in the draft. That still could mean OT Wright, who may not have been available at pick 15. Wright is currently 4^th on my OL board. I have EVERY private workout visitor for this team, and he’s the only one outside of a bevy of TE’s that would warrant such a high pick. FYI, GB drafted six players who visited and had a private workout with the club a year ago. REST OF THE DRAFT: I think they will draft a TE, and it might come after round one (or in a trade up, using picks from the 2^nd round). I also think they add another WR. At some point GB has to realize that the DL needs immediate attention. They like to double up, and sometimes triple up in the draft at a position. WR (2022), CB (twice) and even RB have seen multiple early targets. I’d go DL twice early this year.

New England: In 2022 the Patriots drafted OG Cole Strange in the 1^st Like with Bill Walsh in his later years, Belichick seems to want to prove that he’s smarter than everyone else. What he got was a good player, but by taking him a round too early he lost the opportunity to add two good players. While the Pats have failed to find WR’s in past drafts, they are doing due diligence in this area for 2023, with eight players receiving significant attention. I think it’s wide open where they go with this pick, but I do not expect them to trade up in the draft, at least not here. Past history suggests that they wait on WR, and go DL/OLB here, but my top two needs are WR and OG. REST OF THE DRAFT: Here are the rules when trying to figure out New England’s draft process. Look for deception, look for players who can fill multiple positions, study the combine cone scores, something Belichick covets, and expect late picks to include players who excelled in college playing special teams. Interesting players they may consider later on include OL Cody Mauch and Tyler Steen (the Saban connection) and safety Jamie Robinson.

NYJ: QB Rodgers is now a Jet, but I’m not going to delve into my feelings about the trade, as that is for another time and place. What it does however, is squeeze the Jets down to just five picks in this draft, and might also affect what they are planning to do with this pick. Both GB and New England now move ahead of the Jets, and one or both could go OL with their selection. That might cause them to deviate from OL, one of the drawbacks to this seemingly short trade back. Unfortunately, I have less Intel for this team than most, but am now thinking DL and even WR are in play with this pick. REST OF THE DRAFT: The Jets are without a 3rd round pick. I personally think they are targeting a center (John Michael Schmitz for sure, or possibly Joe Tippman). One or both of these players could be available. I’d go OL with one of the 1st two picks as it’s been a sore spot for the offense. I’d also try to trade back in the draft and add an additional pick or two.

Washington: LOUD OFF THE FIELD, Washington has been very quiet on the field. Parts of this roster are playoff caliber, including their very stout defensive front seven and their WR depth. What needs fixing would be QB, OL and DB. Clearly, they agree with OL and DB, as 16 of their confirmed private workouts are for these two slots (LB has another four). There’s only one safety (Branch) in my top 60 rankings, so that would be interesting. I think DB is more likely than OL at this point. REST OF THE DRAFT: Do you want to become relevant? Offer Lamar Jackson a contract of $250 million for five years, with $200 Million guaranteed (that 80% tops all other contracts by over 10% except for one, QB Watson). Make Baltimore match the offer (the two 1^st round picks and the $$$). The offense can win now with Lamar and a day two TE. The defense can add 2-3 DB’s in this draft, with volume the key. Back to reality. I expect this team to go OL and DB in this draft, meeting my need board, while also adding a day three LB, of which I have three specific names. QB? If Matt Ryan is willing to mentor Sam Howell, maybe. Otherwise, I’m not sure what transpires here, but they may be comfortable with Brissett and Howell.

Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has misfired on many day one and day two DB’s in the draft, having far more luck in the trade and free agency market, but this is the position I strongly suggest they target with this pick. Transparent as always (the NFL draft community thanks you), Pitt has shown interest in quite a few positions in this draft, led by OL, DT and CB. Their most public OL interest will be gone by pick 17. Do they pull the trigger on CB Banks or CB Porter? That would be the way I’d go. Pitt has shown “extra” interest in CB Ringo (Georgia), who is lower on my list. REST OF THE DRAFT: Thanks to the great trade with Chicago (WR Claypool), the Steelers own the top pick in the 2^nd round (32). They could trade back, as several teams like to reach out to grab that initial day two pick. A small trade back can still net them an impact center. If they stay, look for a possible DT selection, or certainly a CB if they went elsewhere at pick 17. There’s no question Pitt will add a (quality) WR to the mix, as no team is better at drafting wideouts. Names of “interest” include WR’s Tillman, Mingo, and Charlie Jones.

Detroit: For the 2^nd year in a row the Lions have a pair of day one picks. They will have some interesting choices to make here. If they went CB at 6, do they go edge, safety or TE? Some are even speculating RB. One exciting fit for me is safety Brian Branch, which would help this team limit splash plays. Then there’s the position of TE, which was left barren with the in-season trade last year. One thing I’m thankful for is that Detroit is showing little interest in WR. It’s a need (5^th on my list), but this draft crop cries day three, even with the six-game suspension of Jamison Williams. REST OF THE DRAFT: I EXPECT the Lions to turn their five early picks (6 through 85) into three or four picks, which bothers me. I’d like to see them address TE with one of their two 2^nd round picks. If they don’t go CB in round one, maybe they trade up for CB Forbes or wait for small, but highly instinctive CB Clark Phillips (Utah), who excelled with smoothness at the combine, which matched his game tape. Sadly, he lacks a Detroit Lion “profile”. Late round dart throws might include TE Barker, DE Desjuan Johnson, or CB Jatavius Martin. One more thing. Last year I was ecstatic when they drafted LB Rodriquez, a perfect fit for them. Ferris State edge rusher Caleb Murphy is my perfect fit choice this year. Can he play? 40 sacks over the past two seasons, and a willingness to get even better says yes.

Tampa: As I write this, Tampa Bay fans need to be worried. The NFC South is in transition, but the Bucs are trending down. Draft grades have gone south, but with roster (re)building necessary, this has to be a focused effort. Baker Mayfield is here, but I wouldn’t rule out QB just yet, depending on how the board shakes out. Two positions stand out as being targets for this pick. The 1^st one is DE, with Tampa aging in this area and still not certain to sign all of their current free agents. The 2^nd is RB, and I say this because Tampa has spent more time vetting this position than expected. With this being a solid RB crop, yes, go get one, but not at pick 19. I know they like Nolan Smith, but his stock has risen significantly, and he’s likely out of the picture. This isn’t an easy call, as by 19, the top OL will be gone and the safety class is weak. I think we may end up with youth at edge/OLB or even a WR. At this time, I do not have a targeted player in mind. REST OF THE DRAFT: I fully expect Tampa to address their OL, add a solid RB, and yes, add 1-2 WR’s. I’d love to see safety Sydney Brown drafted by this team.

Seattle: With ten draft picks, including five of the top 83, there’s no reason to get cute and trade picks. If they went edge at six, they should come back here with OL or DB. If they went CB at six, then OL or edge/DT is the play. REST OF THE DRAFT: Seattle more than kicked the tires on safety, so I look for one to be added. I wouldn’t be surprised with two DL in the top 85 picks as well. My five picks in the 1^st three rounds are edge, DB, 2 OL and DT. Adding a day three WR also makes sense. There’s no real connection, but I expect a pick of a DB from THE Oregon State. The profile fits (insert smile).

LAC: Famous for letting the draft come to them, the Chargers have reeled in amazing 1^st round talent over the past several seasons. Someone will drop in this draft, and LA typically takes that player. While I’d love to see Zay Flowers opposite their existing WR’s, LA tends to draft differently at this position, putting someone like Jordan Addison in play. Bigger needs on my board are run stopper, edge rusher, replacement talent in the secondary, and a left guard. So, who slips to pick 21? Because this is a strange draft, one without surefire middle of round one talent, beauty will be in the eyes of the beholder. I’ll lean DB here, but I usually have no read on what this team will do except for the draft-dropper angle. REST OF THE DRAFT: I have them selecting a couple of off the wall players, one at LB and one at CB. I’m also curious as to what they will do at a) TE, where impact talent is available on day two, and b) RB, where they have plodder Isaiah Spiller (4.63 40) and Austin Ekeler, who is on the last year of his contract and wants to be traded. In the end, I think LA spreads out its seven selections.

Baltimore: Like the Chargers, Baltimore is the other example of a team that historically just lets the draft board come to them. I FULLY expect Baltimore to trade out of this spot, as they have a very rare minimal draft capital of five picks, which includes no 2^nd round selection. If multiple players remain on their board before this pick, they will trade back. Based on Intel, CB is a high priority for them. WR remains a need even with the Beckham signing, and yes, they could go with one in this range or with a trade down if they feel like the CB board is not to their liking. My other needs are DE and OG, but as of this writing I’m honing in on CB 1^st, and WR 2^nd as their initial pick. REST OF THE DRAFT: The only thing I will predict at this time is making five picks become six or seven. In this relatively average draft, I think two trade downs are quite possible.

Minnesota: The Kurt Cousins era is coming to a close, perhaps as soon as 2024. Drafting a QB is as high as +650, and maybe they would consider Hendon Hooker. I’m short about five of their “secret” visits, and Hooker has not been in the building. Minny has made no secret of the fact that they’d like to add a WR, and it could be at this pick, or a bit later with someone such as Trey Palmer. In his 1^st year as GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah traded up, down and sideways, much like their previous GM. That just confuses things. Minny, like Baltimore before them, has but five picks, and no pick in the 2^nd They traded back from 12 to 32 a year ago, so another trade back is possible, but all these teams in the twenties need to find a trading partner. Maybe if CB Banks is available (draft prop 21.5) they stay and take him. I’m getting the feeling that we’ll see a curveball from the Vikings, one way or another, here, and maybe even later in the draft.

Jacksonville: Let’s get this out of the way 1^st. I’m NOT a fan of GM Trent Baalke. In the deepest draft ever, Trent turned 12 picks, many of them at the top of each round, into seven. Luckily for the Jags, they broke the spending record in free agency, adding plenty of talent, and also found themselves a real NFL coach. Now the job gets tougher. OL is my biggest need for the Jags but all they’ve done right now is met with a few day-three guys. I expect most of the top OL will be gone by pick 24, so they probably look elsewhere, perhaps CB or DE. That’s where they’ve done their homework, and it fits with what sportsbooks think will be their focus. IF (a big if) they stay with picks 24, 56 and 86, I expect to see CB, DE and OL picks. My best guess is that Baalke gets trigger-happy and moves up, either here or in round two. I have no Intel as of this moment as to any specific players they may be targeting, but I’ll keep digging.

NYG: Optimism abounds with the NYG, and why not, off a playoff win, a top tier draft, and this draft, with ten more picks, including four of the top 100. With that being said, the NYG still need work along the OL (Daniel Jones has a slow internal clock), and in my opinion, got by with smoke and mirrors, plus great coaching with the players they had at CB and safety. That, and finding a WR1 is really all I want from them early in this draft. They met with four of my top five WR’s, so that’s a start. Based on the odds shift, we will see at least one, and maybe two or three of these guys still on the board. Maybe that’s their focus, as they met with day two centers (no guards) and no safeties. Late, last minute meetings were held with several CB’s, perhaps another telling sign. I think this pick is for a CB or WR. REST OF THE DRAFT: The interior OL is my #1 need but I understand not going in that direction with pick 25. Another batch of late, private meetings and workouts were held with some solid day two DE’s. I trust this 2^nd year draft team far more than the previous regime, but when the dust settles, I do hope they find some quality OL to help solidify pass protection, while also opening larger run holes.

Dallas: If this wasn’t the passive Jerry Jones (massive inactivity in the draft, when the opportunity existed to get someone both highly ranked and meeting a key need), I’d have them squarely in line to trade UP to get stud RB Bijan Robinson. As it stands, I think Robinson is special, but can’t find that early top 15 draft team where he fits the best. Like with the NYG, I have massive amounts of information, so it’s just a matter of mind-melding with Jerry Jones, and that’s going to hurt my head. Even if it’s not Robinson, Dallas, who has OPENLY stated they want to have more of a run game approach, has only an injured Tony Pollard as a viable starter at this position. Dallas did NOT meet with my 2^nd rated RB (Gibbs, Alabama), but that does not mean they won’t draft him. 1^st, Gibbs was not a regular on the private meeting circuit, and 2^nd, teams always draft players that they do not meet with. What’s a bit strange about Dallas this draft season is that, while TE is a need, they did not meet with the top two guys, and instead met with five other TE’s. LB and OL are my other areas of need, but traditional LB’s are not expected to be chosen on day one, and we don’t know if there will be any round one OL talent remaining by pick 26. Dallas met with eight DL and an amazing number of the top rated WR’s. I think they would prefer to draft OL here, but when a team drafts this late it is hard to predict what’s going to be fair value at such a position of importance. REST OF THE DRAFT: I’m trying to read their intentions and based on what I have, I don’t think they go TE 1^st (the betting favorite) unless the board forces them to. I DO expect a day two TE. If I’m Dallas, I defer WR as well, perhaps going for camera ready Rashee Rice (Jonathan Mingo is a name on their radar screen). Based on volume, DE will also be a day two target, if not even sooner. SIDE NOTE: Teams have differing philosophies related to usage of their allotted private meetings. Many teams use it to ease character or injury concerns. Some go top-heavy on critical positions. Half the group or more spread-out meetings to cover players available throughout the draft (drafting wisely on day three matters). Dallas is usually top-heavy, meaning they look at only a handful of day three options. Based on recent draft grades, that has not always worked out well.

Buffalo: I like how Buffalo addressed the early part of last year’s draft. With just six picks in this draft, that same focus is necessary, plus some better talent evaluation late would be nice. DL is the betting favorite, which makes some sense, at least from a run-stopping standpoint. I actually have only one other important need for this team, that being MLB, which can be addressed on day two. Based on tea leaves (and of course snooping around) the Bills are not very interested in LB and instead are looking closely at WR, safety and OL, plus they had a late push in meeting with a few TE’s. I definitely think they are in the WR market, either here or by trade (Hopkins?). I understand OL, as there were times that Josh Allen had extra pressure on him. DT looks like a day three focus only. WR is +390. LB is +250, but that position is never a wise investment as a 1^st DL is actually the favorite. I think the value is WR or OL (as much as +460). REST OF THE DRAFT: “Interesting” names for day two include UCLA RB Charbonnet, and Iowa St edge rusher Will McDonald.

Cincinnati: Cincy has a more than solid draft day track record, and is one of the more focused teams during the draft. That’s doubly important when drafting this late. TE and CB are the betting favorites. Cincy met with the top two TE’s, but as a team that seldom trades on draft day, it’s possible both will be gone by this pick. I’m unusually short on draft Intel here, which is rare. What I do know is that they have a strong interest in CB Emmanuel Forbes (Miss St). He’s my #5 CB, and has a draft slot that straddles the 1^st-2^nd rounds (28-35). I’d say this is for Forbes or a TE, with RB Gibbs a longshot “suggestion” as a 3^rd choice (no known contact). REST OF THE DRAFT: GM Duke Tobin prefers a best player available approach, but past history strongly suggests this is tied to top two or three positional needs. If I’m Cincy I get a RB in this deep draft (maybe at pick 92) and let Joe Mixon walk. Therefore, CB/TE/RB might be my 1^st three looks. Without full Intel, I don’t know their full intentions, but they HAVE to draft at least one viable OL, plus look at safety if possible. Late, “strange” names that might show up in camp include LB Jaylen Moody, Safety Kendall Williamson, WR Josh Vann, and/or Harvard DE Truman Jones.

New Orleans: New Orleans is famous for trading UP on draft day, as well as averaging about five picks per draft season. It’s enormously agonizing to watch this franchise continue to devalue the draft. This approach backfires 90-95% of the time, but it worked here because a) Sean Payton was a top five coach, and b) most of their early round picks have been stout. DL is the heavy favorite, with OL considered the only other choice not priced at +800. I show DT as far an away their biggest need, but I don’t see them going that route. I EXPECT another trade, and certainly Baltimore and Minnesota (22 and 23) would be wise to accommodate, considering these teams lack a 2^nd round selection. I think the Saints may want to go even higher, so could be see pick 15 (JETS) involved, especially if the miss out on a top four OL? What targets could they be looking at? I’m speculating CB (Gonzalez if he drops, or Porter), edge (Murphy), OT (Wright) and WR (Smith-Njigba). CB has been heavily researched. REST OF THE DRAFT: The Saints have eight picks, but I would be SHOCKED if they drafted more than six players. I have a hunch they go RB somewhere in rounds 2-4, with Kamara still facing suspension down the road. As an aside, they are very likely to add a QB in this draft.

Philly: As said earlier, the Eagles are likely not sticking with picks 10 and/or 30. I’d trade OUT of round one with this pick, and that should be doable as many a team (Minny or New Orleans for example) are historical candidates to make this move. I could add a few more teams to the mix as well, including the Lions. Whichever direction Philly trades I do think OL and DL will be positions of major interest. While safety is my biggest need, the Eagles are mainly looking CB. I’m not opposed to teams drafting a CB and converting them to safety (or the easier transition of nickelback). As an aside, the Intel I’m getting is that Philly will make this a “big school” draft, focusing primarily on major NCAA programs. Let’s see if that’s correct.

Kansas City: KC’s staying power at the top of the NFL is not just Mahomes and Andy Reid, but an incredible vision as to what wins in the NFL. They drafted fast on offense AND defense before it became popular, and turned a suspect OL into a top three unit with astute drafting, uncovering three absolute gems. My needs are WR, pass rusher and run stopper. That’s it. My Intel shows KC looking hard at WR and DE, while also paying very close attention to OT. Zay Flowers famously was called in by Pat Mahomes for a late workout. Adding him to the roster would be stealing. The DE’s they’ve met with are more like day three targets. I like the fit of DT Mazi Smith to this team, although he carries a 2^nd round grade. With ten picks, they could easily go up and get someone, as there are not ten spots left on this roster. My uneducated guess for KC is they may go up to get a draft dropping edge rusher or OL, or stick around and add WR to the mix. REST OF THE DRAFT: It’s clear to me at least one WR will be added, which I fully endorse. They will add DE, but hopefully it will be someone highly rated. I’m fairly confident that selected player will show speed. It also looks like OT will be part of the plan. OLB Jeremy Banks carries plenty off off-field baggage, but this is my off-the-wall day three stab for KC, who has made this type of pick in the past.

Late news on teams outside of the 1^st round.

AMAZING TIDBIT: All five teams listed below did not have a 1^st round pick in 2022.

LA Rams (pick 36): This is actually EARLY for LA to be on the draft board. I hate trying to guess what they will do because a) I usually lack Intel, as they are very secretive, and b) they are not all that predictable, or efficient in the draft. They have more needs than almost any other team right now, with a few top tier players and the rest of the roster more bargain basement types. I’ll guess OL for now, with DB or LB (especially if all the top LB’s are still on the board) also in play.

Miami (pick 51): Thanks to their owner, Miami forfeited the 21^st pick in the draft (tampering). That robs them of the opportunity to add a quality OL or a front seven defensive disruptor. Miami is one of four teams that I have very low Intel on. I’ve heard that they may switch to a 3-4 alignment, which new coordinator Vic Fangio prefers. The one position I DO know that Miami has thoroughly investigated is RB. I like the fits for the guys that I’ve uncovered (Tulane RB Prince, Pitt RB Abanikanda), and I’ve even heard they have looked at slow, but productive RB Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) who offers enormous 3^rd down pass-catching value. As for the 3-4, a late look could be 3-4 DE Shakel Brown (Troy), and DE Leo (Wagner). It’s all very speculative on my part for this team, who I do think might add another TE as well. I don’t know what’s in store at this pick, but I’d target OL.

Denver (picks 67 and 68, 3^rd round): Denver was in this same arena a year ago, with one pick in this round, and two more in the 3^rd round. They went LB 1^st, followed by TE and CB. I still show LB as their #1 need, followed by DE and OG. The 2022 draft was a disappointment. Sean Payton is here, and I suspect he’ll have GM George Paton’s ear all throughout the draft. Denver only has five picks, so it “seems” that they won’t go the New Orleans route of trading up multiple times. I’m not sure at all what they will do, but I wouldn’t rule out TE. Denver has not featured any one position in the pre-draft process. For a late pick, how about CB Isaiah Bolden, who moonlights as a premier kick returner, his likely role if he makes it in the NFL.

Cleveland (picks 74 and 98, 3^rd round): Cleveland underachieved last year and it wasn’t just because of QB play. The defense let them down. I thought coming into 2022 the roster was fairly deep, but LB was a need. Cleveland did not draft a LB in 2022 and I list that once again as my #1 area of need. I’d like them to target OG as well, but the two players they’ve spent time with are OT’s (Tyler Steen, Dawand Jones, both quality day two guys). Then again, I have only modest Intel for Cleveland. The late positions of interest (meetings at the deadline) were with TE’s and WR’s. DE Mike Morris is an “interesting” potential later target. CB Tre Hawkins (Old Dominion) was a late study by me (I have 460 players that I took at least a casual glance at). He ran a 4:40 at his Pro Day, showing quick speed and strong change of direction skills. He had 133 tackles these past two years. Yes, he probably won’t end up here, but Cleveland is interested. I hope they go LB 1^st, but don’t be surprised if they go WR with one of these picks (I have a trio of targets in mind, including Nathaniel Dell from Houston).

San Francisco (picks 99, 101, and 102, 3^rd round): Thanks to a whopping SEVEN compensatory picks, SF has eleven overall selections, including these three. Their 1^st “regular” pick would have been at 154. DB is an absolute crying area of need, with OL and LB next on my board. Unlike almost every other NFL team, SF has not spent time with any highly rated prospects. For a team that does tend to draft a few players from private workouts and meetings, this could be quite muddled. In fact, SF drafted six prospects they met with last year. The “highest” rated player they have met with that I know of is safety Ji’Ayir Brown (Penn St), who shows up as the 69^th to 106^th overall prospect from five different sources. For these three picks I think at least one DB will be added, along with an OL. SF is almost certain to add a TE as well, but that may come on day three.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwCLU_cN1sFEjx4kUXOK4YQ

You can find my full, 32 page NFL Draft preview at the following link:

https://www.eastcoastsportsinvestors.com/blog

Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, including day of game quick previews and post-game recaps.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Preview & Picks

Patrick Gates

April 25, 2023

Davis Riley and Nick Hardy won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans finishing two strokes ahead of Beau Hossler and Wyndham Clark. Heavy favorites, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele finished T4.

We now head to Vidanta Vallarta resort for the second edition of the Mexico Open. This week’s field is extremely weak despite World No.1 Jon Rahm being in the mix. He’s the defending champion of this event and will look for his fifth PGA Tour victory this season.

Tournament Information:

Dates: April 27th, 2023 – April 30th, 2023
Location: Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
Course: The Norman Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Course Type: Coastal
Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,456 yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Paspalum
Fairways: Paspalum
Rough: Paspalum 2″
Bunkers: 106
Water Hazard(s): – (In-Play on 13 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 11-11.5 ft.
Purse/ Winner: $7,700,000/ $1,400,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: -1
Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 70.32 (-0.68), Rank 24 of 50

Course Architect:

Course Architect: Greg Norman (2015)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

Comparable Courses:
- Corales Golf Course – Corales Puntacana Championship – RESULTS
- Grand Reserve Golf Club – Puerto Rico Open – RESULTS

Designer Link (Greg Norman):
- TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) – Valero Texas Open

Comparable Location (Mexico):
- El Camaleón – Riviera Maya, Mexico – WWT Championship at Mayakoba

Comparable Yardage (7,456 Yards):
- The Country Club of Jackson – 7,461 Yards – Sanderson Farms Championship
- Bay Hill Club & Lodge – 7,466 Yards – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Comparable Greens (Paspalum):
- Grand Reserve Golf Club – Sea Dwarf Paspalum – Puerto Rico Open
- Corales Golf Course – Supreme paspalum .100” – Corales Puntacana Championship

Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
- El Camaleón – 7,000 sq. ft. – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
- Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cadence Bank Houston Open

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, April 27th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET
Round 2: Friday, April 28th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET
Round 3: Saturday, April 29th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM -3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
Round 4: Sunday, April 30th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM -3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

Weather:

Thursday: Sunny 85 F, 12 mp/h WSW, 54% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Friday: Sunny 85 F, 12 mp/h WSW, 53% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Mostly Sunny 84 F, 12 mp/h WSW, 50% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 11 mp/h SW, 54% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The PGA Tour heads to Vidanta Vallarta resort for the second edition of the Mexico Open. Vidanta Vallarta is a resort that has multiple courses, but we’ll be focusing on The Norman Signature Course. Greg Norman designed the course in 2015. It’s located near the shore of the Pacific Ocean with the Ameca River running through several holes. A fun fact about this track is that it’s only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge.

72-Hole Record:
- 267, Jon Rahm (2022)
18-Hole Record:
- 63, Tony Finau (Round 4, 2022), Brandon Wu (Round 4, 2022)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

In terms of length, the Norman Course at Vidanta Vallarta is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,456 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 6th of 46, with the average fairway width being 40.4 yards. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. One of the main defenses of the course is the copious amounts of bunkers (106) which ranks as the 3rd most of the 46 courses. In addition to the sand traps, the wind coming off the Pacific will also be a factor.

The five par 3’s range between 170 yards and 226 yards. Four of the five played over par last year with the lone exception being No. 13.

Most of the nine Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 7 is the shortest listed at 293 yards with the longest being No. 4, playing 520 yards.

The four Par 5’s are No. 6, No. 12, No. 14, & No. 18. They all played under par last season, but are some of the longer par 5’s on Tour given their distance. Two of these par 5’s are over 600 yards.

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Driving Distance
Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 650 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
Comparable Courses and Event History

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Mexico Open. It’s an extremely weak field with only three of the world’s fifty players teeing it up. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Jon Rham (+260) is the defending champion of the Mexico Open at Vidanta. He’s already won four times this season, most recently at Augusta National. In addition to those victories, Rahm has four top 10-finishes. He’s also yet to miss a cut this season.
Tony Finau (+750) finished T2 at this event last season. His last victory on Tour was earlier this season at the Cadence Bank Houston Open. Since then, he has yet to finish worse than T31 in his last eleven starts on the PGA Tour.
Wyndham Clark (+1800) played in this event last finishing T67. He lost strokes in every category besides on approach. Clark made the cut in every event after missing back-to-back cuts at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriner’s Children’s Open. During that span, he has seven top-20 finishes and has yet to finish outside the top 50. In his last three solo starts, he has two top-10 finishes.
Gary Woodland (+2500) finished T24 at the Mexico Open last year. He hasn’t had a ton of success this season with only three top-20 finishes in his fourteen starts. Woodland has only gained strokes on the green in three of those starts. However, he did gain strokes putting in his last two events (RBC Heritage & the Masters).

Previous Winners in the Field:
- Jon Rahm (’22)

Notable Withdraws:
- Nick Hardy (Undisclosed), Davis Riley (Undisclosed), Ryan Brehm (Undisclosed)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

Horses for Courses:

(Only using data from the 2022 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)

Jon Rahm: 1
Brandon Wu: T2
Tony Finau: T2
~~Davis Riley: 5~~
Alex Smalley: T6
Cameron Champ: T6
David Lipsky: T6
Patrick Rodgers: 10

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

(Only using data from the 2022 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)

Max McGreevy: MC
Ben Martin: MC
Andrew Putnam: MC
Dylan Wu: MC
Joseph Bramlett: MC
Kevin Tway: MC
Ryan Armour: MC

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
- Price: 9-2

Picks (Outrights):

No outrights this week, I don’t love the market especially as I can see Jon Rahm running away with this event. There are also markets without Rahm and Finau this week but I’m going to stay away from that as well.

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.00 Units

Picks (Top 20):

Gary Woodland (+125) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Nicolai Hojgaard (+155) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.55 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

MJ Daffue (+125) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Dylan Wu (+135) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Mexico Open: 4.00 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

The NFL 2023 1st round Mock Draft 1.0

Kiev O'Neil

April 25, 2023

We are already coming up to the 2023 NFL draft this Thursday April 27th 2023, and my oh my do we have a lot of speculation this year without a lot of clarity. Many of the mock drafts out there are projecting trades, and that is just something that I will not do. Trades of course will happen, but it also doesn’t mean that they won’t get the guy that they like a bit later in the draft. I am also gonna just flat out say that I recommend that most teams try and trade down some. I am not a huge fan of taking shots and losing capital. I prefer gaining capital and doing your homework. College to NFL players do not have any guarantees with them, and looking at the past drafts have certainly shown a lot of top 10 busts. My mock drafts are a little bit different than the marketplace as I like to say what teams “should” do from using my research, and then attempt to predict what teams “will” do based on their tendencies and the marketplace. Here is how my predictions all lay out. For our position totals in the first round, we have 4 quarterbacks, 1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 wide receivers, 5 offensive lineman, 10 defensive line/edge, 1 Linebacker, 6 Cornerbacks, and 0 Safeties. We have 14 offensive players and 17 on defense. Let the games begin!

Best Bet: Defensive players drafted in the 1st round over 14.5 +150 (now +225)

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI)

Who they should pick: Well, the Panthers already traded up for this huge pick and the certainly gave up a lot to the Bears with their 9th pick this year, a second round this year, a first round for 2024, and a second round for 2025. Oh yeah.. Their best Wide Receiver in DJ Moore as well. Now the way I see it is that none of the players this year is worth that trade, but now that is has been made, the Panthers should pick CJ Stroud. Stroud has the size, strength and ability to perform very well in the NFL and he is the safest pick. If you want to see a further break down on this, please see my NFL Draft 2023 Quarterback Rankings.

Mock Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama. I think that it is pretty clear that the ownership all the way down to coaching wants a winner, and Bryce Young is heavily favored to be the top dog. Young is under-sized for the NFL at 5’10, 204 pounds soak and wet, but we have seen him perform magically at the University of Alabama. Let’s just hope that he doesn’t get smashed or injured in his very first year in the system.

2. Houston Texans

Who they should pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State. For all the reasons that I have stated, CJ Stroud is the man who has the best chance of becoming an NFL Franchise quarterback.

Mock Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State. The irony here is that even though the Texans screwed up and decided to let Lovie win their last game, they still have the opportunity to pick the best quarterback in the draft. If it happens this way, I think that new coach DeMeco Ryans and GM Nick Caserio will say that Stroud was their guy from the very beginning which might save them face. In saying this, I have also heard rumors that they like other options and might go Edge rusher here like Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson. I will make changes in my 2.0 if needed.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Who they should pick: It must suck to be right back in a rebuild after paying their head-case quarterback millions of dollars for millions of years. Now they have to pretty much treat him like a king in order to have some success going forward. If it were me, I would hire a private detective to follow him around and hope that he does something to breach the agreement. Unfortunately, playing video games doesn’t do it. So where do we start here? I mean…. They have to trade Hopkins now right? I am not even sure that will happen, but the Cardinals need to start building in the trenches and figure out how to get to the quarterback after losing all of those edge rushers to free agency and retirement. I would of course trade down, but being that we do not know if that will happen or not, I think Tyree Wilson “edge” 6’6 271 pounds fits a Jonathan Gannon 4-3 defense a bit better than the smaller Will Anderson.

Mock Pick: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama. The biggest fear that a first time GM like Monti Ossenfort has is screwing up his very first big move in the organization. The name Alabama on a defensive jersey holds a lot more weight than the name Texas Tech. Will Anderson could be a beast though running a 4.6 forty at 6’4 253 pounds.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Who they should pick: The Ponies were a very soft team last year really all facets of the game. I wish I could blame injuries for this team who was projected to win their division to finishing almost dead last, but they actually were quite healthy. I honestly think that this team needs to rebuild and they probably should have tried to trade away some pieces. Being that they aren’t looking to do that, I think that they could use some more pass rush here to help stop some of these AFC quarterbacks, so let’s go with Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech. This monster of a man is 6’6 271 pounds who can play in a 4-3 or a 3-4 defense.

Mock Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky. Chris Ballard is a terrible general manager in my opinion, and I believe that he will cave for a quarterback who hasn’t done diddley in college. Will Levis has the NFL attributes, but he could not win big games during his college career. I think that Will Levis might be the Mitch Trubisky of the 2023 NFL draft.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Who they should pick: If you would have asked me what the Seahawks would be picking before the 2022 NFL season, I would have bet money that it would have been a quarterback. Now with Geno Smith being the comeback player of the year, I do not know how anyone could diss him like this. The biggest place that the Seahawks have struggled was against the run ranking 26th in opponent rush EPA, and 29th in opponent rushing yards per game at 150. They need Jalen Carter, 6’3 313 pounds.

Mock Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. The Seahawks have been a pretty smart organization over the past 10 years. I think they make the right pick to help stuff the run in Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. Carter has had his off the field issues, but he has done a decent job in clearing that up. He is the best three technique in the draft.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Who they should pick: What was worse last year, The Lions 29th ranked rush defense or their 30th ranked pass defense? Being that the Lions picked up Emmanuel Moseley, and Cameron Sutton in lieu of the Okuda trade, they still need some help at corner, Safety, Linebacker, Defensive Tackle, and Edge. The Kittens just drafted Hutchinson last year so I think going with a defensive tackle like Keeanu Benton 6’4 308 pounds from Wisconsin could change the face of this defense.

Mock Pick: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech. Many of the Mocks like this pick, and I hope that he can stop the run because the NFC North doesn’t have many pocket quarterbacks. I think the Lions really want to secure the edge this year. I do not hate this pick but I also think that if Jaylen Carter falls, it could be him here instead.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Who they should pick: Was losing Derek Carr while gaining Jimmy Garoppolo more like robbing peter to pay Paul? I don’t really know if Jimmy G is really all that good playing in two top systems in football. Heck, look at what Brock Purdy did! I do know that Jimmy G does take less risks and should throw less interceptions next year yet his arm and legs upside takes a hit. Losing TE Darrin Waller was rough, but maybe the Austin Hooper signing makes up some for it. The Raiders need to stop the pass and they have already paid for pass rushers like Chandler Jones. They need to get the best corner in the draft in Devon Witherspoon 6’0 200 pounds.

Mock Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois. I, as a Big 10 fan, have watched a lot of Devon Witherspoon play and he is the truth. Now he elected to not participate in the combine, but he did run a 4.46 and a 4.42 at his pro day. Also, keep in mind that moving in pads is much different than moving in shorts. Witherspoon has the instincts of an amazing cornerback and I love this pick.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Who they should pick: The Falcons were not really good at anything except for running the football and part of the reason that they ran so well was the fact that they really couldn’t throw the ball ranking 31st in passing yards per game. Defenses just had to stack the Box making it easy from there. Now with Mariota gone, Desmond Ritter will take the helm. I am not 100% sure that Ritter will be successful at the next level. The Falcons really need a lot of picks, so I think that trading down some and drafting Hendon Hooker might be their best bet. This way they have two potential quarterbacks, and more picks to fix that awful defense.

Mock Pick: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia. Being from the state of the best college football defense certainly makes one look at that direction. The Falcons were dead last in pressure rate over the last two years and they need to fix that. They could also go corner here, but the Jeff Okuda trade might have made them feel more content.

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Who they should pick: There is a Wright way and a wrong way that the Bears could go about doing this. Being a Bears fan myself, I have to listen to the over-hyped fans screaming for guys like Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Bijan Robinson. Now that the Bears have fixed their linebacker and guard needs, they will need to go offensive tackle and defensive tackle. Drafting the best tackle in the draft in Darnell Wright, 6’5 335 pounds be the right move!

Mock Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee. The Bears get it Wright with this pick. Not sure how good this Tackle is? Look at his tape against Will Anderson. Darnell Wright is my best offensive tackle in this draft. This move would set Justin Fields up for success. Now the ball is in his court. No excuses.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick: The Eagles are the most stacked team in football but they unfortunately had to give up a few guys like DT Javon Hargrave, LB TJ Edwards and T Andre Dillard to make room to pay Jalen Hurts. I honestly would be fine with any of those positions, but why not protect your investment by picking the next best offensive Tackle in Broderick Jones 6’5 311 pounds. Jones has 0 sacks allowed in 449 pass blocking attempts. WOW.

Mock Pick: Luke Van Ness, DE, Iowa. It sounds like the Eagles will fill in a void that hasn’t left yet in Brandon Graham and Van Ness has the size for a 4-3 defensive end at 6’5 272 pounds. Whomever is picking Nolen Smith in their mocks doesn’t do their research. Smith is 6’2, 238 pounds and will need to be in a 3-4 to succeed.

11. Tennessee Titans

Who they should pick: The Titans really choked away their chances to get to the playoffs last year, and I think that Ryan Tannehill is playing on borrowed time. This organization is a mess right now and they lost both a guard in Nate Davis and their defensive end DeMarcus Walker to the Bears. Being that they could get a good guard in the 2nd round, I say go with another edge rusher like Nolan Smith 6’2 238 pounds. Nolan ran an amazing 4.39 forty at the combine and the Georgia logo goes a long ways.

Mock Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida. New GM, new regime. God I hope I and everyone else is wrong about this. Richardson is raw and only completed 54% of his passes. I don’t even know if he should be a quarterback or a tight end in the NFL at this point. Also, what does this do to Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the team’s feelings this year? I might have to take their season win total under.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Who they should pick: The Texans could pretty much justify any big player here being that they need so much, but I will say that they did beef up their interior defensive line and running back positions in free agency. Now that the Texans have their quarterback (we think), the next logical step is to get to the other team’s quarterback right? Myles Murphy 6’5 268 pounds from Clemson sure looks good here. He had the second most sacks in the ACC over the past three years and he sizes well for the 4-3 defense.

Mock Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State. This is really a no-brainer for their organization being that they have Stroud who threw to him in college. I have some serious reservations about Jaxon being that he didn’t play much in college. He also benefited in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago against a very depleted Utah backfield.

13. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ)

Who they should pick: The biggest problem that the Packers had over the last few years according to Aaron Rodgers was that he had nobody to throw to. I beg to differ and think that their rushing defense was worse. Last year, the Pack gave up 139.5 rushing yards per game ranking 26th in the NFL. The Packers need some five techniques (3-4 defensive ends) that can help stop the run. I have to go with Myles Murphy 6’5 268 pounds once again here.

Mock Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame. The Packers lost tight end Robert Tonyan to the Bears and they will want to fill that void to give their young quarterback Jordan Love some help. I think that Mayer is the safest bet over Dalton Kinkade if going this rout because Mayer can also run block well which helps Matt Lefleur’s run heavy offense. I personally think that Tight ends are deep, and a good one can be found in the second or third rounds.

14. New England Patriots

Who they should pick: I really hate trying to predict who Belichik wants from the draft and he has baffled draftologists (such as myself) for years. I have to imagine that the fact that Isaiah Wynn is gone leaves a pretty big void on their offensive line. Some Mock Drafts have the Pats trading down and that might just happen as well. For now they should go with Broderick Jones 6’5 311 pounds, but they won’t because nobody listens to me.

Mock Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia. Can you believe it? At 6’5 311 pounds, I do not know how Jones dropped this far in the draft. Jones has 0 sacks allowed in 449 pass blocking attempts. The Patriots should consider themselves very lucky here to get him here, and Jones will be a key piece to keeping Mack Jones on his feet.

15. New York Jets (via GBP)

Who they should pick: The Jets certainly lost some interior defense as well as some offensive line. Looks like the big trade just got done with the Packers so Rogers can bring his drama to New York City. I suppose if you don’t go offense here, Rogers is going to be offended, so let’s go with Paris Johnson Jr. 6’6 313 pounds who also has experience playing right guard which is also a position that they lost.

Mock Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State. I feel that it will be Paris or Broderick Jones if he falls. Rogers legacy will be on the line here so don’t screw up! We have to remember that it is never A-Rod’s fault.

16. Washington Commanders

Who they should pick: It Sounds to me like the Commanders are pretty content with quarterback Sam Howell. He actually finished the season well beating an unmotivated Dallas team last year at the end of the regular season. He also was a projected top draft pick at one time before he lost all of his play makers at North Carolina. I do not mind this decision being that this quarterback class is so weak. The Commies could use a tight end, but they need to cover big wide receivers in the NFC East and that pick should take priority. I like Joey Porter, 6’3 193 pounds here being that he has the larger size over Christian Gonzales.

Mock Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State. Porter has the size and the instincts to keep up with AJ Brown and Ceedee Lamb. I don’t mind this pick at all.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Who they should pick: The Steelers were pretty good on defense, but losing CB Cameron Sutton might hurt some. They instead signed a washed-up Patrick Peterson for two years 14 million, and I do not like that move at all. Big waste of money if you ask me. The Steelers also lost ILB Devin Bush and LB Robert Spillane to free agency. Pittsburgh gained LB Cole Holcomb from Washington which is like using duck tape on a trailer hitch. I am fine with a corner or a linebacker here. Being that LBs are not rated that high in this draft, I recommend going corner with Christian Gonzales, 6’1 197 pounds from Oregon. Gonzo ran the fastest forty out of the top three corners at 4.38.

Mock Pick: Christian Gonzales, CB, Oregon. I think that the Steelers get it right here and continue to build to stop guys like Jamar Chase, and OBJ.

18. Detroit Lions

Who they should pick: Well I stress picking Keanu Benton even more at this position, but being that I used him already, the Lions could use a tight end to help fill the TJ Hockenson trade void. Now that Jameson Williams is suspended for six games for investing in college football, a pass catcher might not hurt. Let’s go with Darnell Washington from Georgia. This man is a beast who should be able to block some. I know he wasn’t the best pass catching tight end on his team, but it isn’t his fault that his team was stacked at Georgia.

Mock Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah. Lot’s of Mock drafts have Detroit picking Bijan Robinson, but I just do not see it after they signed David Montgomery and still have D’Andre Smith. I think that the Lions pick up the same position I recommended, but probably go with Dalton Kincaid being that he is next on most of the rankings. Dalton, when not busy bouncing rednecks at the Road House bar, is a great pass catcher, but also an injury risk being that he had back issues.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who they should pick: It’s tough for me to figure out the Buccaneers here being that they still have a bunch of talent on their roster, yet they are kind of in a mini-rebuild. Can this team really trust Baker Mayfield at quarterback? What are they doing with Kyle Trask? There are so many questions and the logical thing to do is trade down. If not, I think going offense or defensive line is best. Myles Murphy from Clemson fits the bill with an aging Shaq Barrett.

Mock Pick: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson. Being that I do not do mock trades, It makes some sense for the Bucs to fix an aging pass rush and grab themselves some 6’5 268 pounds from Clemson. It’s a pretty safe pick here looking at his numbers in college.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Who they should pick: Myles Murphy was the one that got away here because it would have been a perfect addition for the Sea-chickens at this spot. Let’s beef up that offensive Line with Peter Skoronski 6’4 313 pounds from Northwestern. Skoronski is versatile and can play multiple positions on the offensive line. Now only can he block, he is also quite smart and would be a great addition to this offensive line.

Mock Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC. Being that they just picked up DT Dre’Mont Jones and LB Bobby Wagner in free agency, I think that maybe they panic and draft a wide receiver. I do not like drafting wide receivers in the first round being that they really do not move the needle, but many NFL GMs just can’t help themselves. Addison has been a top NFL draft prospect since he played with Kenny Pickett on the Pittsburgh Panthers.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Who they should pick: Really not a lot of movement for the Bolts in free agency this year minus resigning some of their own guys. The Chargers really need some some help against the run and there are still some top linebackers out there. My best inside linebacker in the draft is Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 lbs from Iowa. The Hawkeyes won every game based on their defense last year and this man was their leader. He has great football instincts and can call the plays.

Mock Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas. Did I also mention that I do not like running backs drafted in the first round either? The Chargers are an incompetent organization and it is looking like they would rather trade Austin Ekeler rather than pay him something. The good news for this pick is that Bijan is special and by far the best running back in this class.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Who they should pick: This Lamar Jackson thing got really annoying and a move here could throw off the whole draft. (I know, boohoo right?) Unpopular opinion coming! Lamar is asking for too much after having some down years. A big part of his MVP season was having a top three NFL coach and if you don’t believe me, go ask Joe Flacco privately. The Odell Beckham signing even makes less sense now because it gives Lamar more leverage, as in this could be a waste of money without someone to throw him the ball. I would personally say to give up on Lamar and draft Hendon Hooker, who is my second rated quarterback. Hendon was 69.6% accurate last year in his passes and he has stepped up to the competition against teams like Kentucky, LSU and Alabama. Even though he played in a Josh Heuple college offense, Hooker’s measurables at 6’3, 217 pounds fits the part. Having 10.5 inch hands also helps as well.

Mock Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland. Banks showed some very good speed in the combine running a 4.38 forty at 197 pounds. He also had the second longest broad jump of 136 inches. The Ravens have not signed Marcus Peters and it looks like they will need to fill his position.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Who they should pick: The Vikings defense was terrible last year and this team needs help all over the place. The good thing is that they got busy getting some good edge rushers in Marcus Davenport and five technique Dean Lowry. Patrick Peterson is now gone, and they signed Byron Murphy from the Cardinals. I honestly would not hate another pass rusher here like a Felix Anudike-Usomah, 6’3 255 pounds from Kansas State. His 8.5 sacks last year and 46 tackles says it all.

Mock Pick: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State. Due to the playoff embarrassment in the secondary, I think that the Vikings go cornerback. This kid is 6’1 155 pounds and needs to beef up some. His 4.35 forty was awesome in the combine and he is long and lanky enough to guard the larger wideouts. Forbes can jump routs and take it to the house. I don’t hate this pick, and maybe if he gets some good financial advice, he could make the cover of Forbes magazine someday.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Who they should pick: Must be nice to have few needs and many options. The Jaguars could have had a better pass defense last year, but all in all, they did quite well vs some of the big boys. The Jags fill a need with receiver just by having Calvin Ridley back on the team. I imagine that he is betting on himself this year. The Jaguars could go defensive line, cornerback, or safety right here. Evan Engram is missing OTAs right now, but according to Trent Baalke, they are close to getting something done. Many corners have already flew off of the board this far, so best to wait for one in the second round. I say to go with Isaiah Foskey, 6’5, 264 pounds from Notre Dame. This kid has the size, strength and great speed with a 4.58 forty to be a great next level 4-3 defensive end.

Mock Pick: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia. This is getting repetitive, but the Jaguars will probably go corner here being that they had troubles in coverage last year. Ringo is a 6’2 207 pound hard hitting back that ran a 4.36 forty. Also, you have to love that he played for Georgia.

25. New York Giants

Who they should pick: The G-men were much worse against the run than they were the pass last year. The good news is that they signed a linebacker and a defensive tackle in free agency. I am still scratching my head over the Kadarius Tony trade, but I also have to think that maybe he wasn’t good for the locker room. The Giants lost guard Nick Gates and center Jon Feliciano to free agency. I myself would go interior offensive line here being that so many corners were taken thus far in this draft. I would say to draft Peter Skoronski from Northwestern. This kid is a top prospect in some draft boards. Skoronski could play Tackle or Guard depending on what is needed.

Mock Pick: Steve Avilia, G, TCU. Steve did a wonderful job run blocking and at pass protection for the frogs. In 515 pass blocking snaps he allowed 0 sacks. at 6’4 332 pounds, this kid can bench press a cow and probably eat it afterwords.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Who they should pick: If I am a Cowboys fan, I already know that the clock is ticking to potentially win a championship with Dak Prescott. The good news is that they didn’t lose a whole bunch to free agency, but they will need to fill a hole at left guard with Conner McGovern heading to Buffalo and at Tight end with Dalton Shultz heading to Houston. Both of these position groups are pretty deep, so I think that stuffing the run should take priority. Keeanu Benton is the best bet for dem boys this year.

Mock Pick: Mazi Smith, NT/DT, Michigan. Pretty good pick here as Dallas only ranked 22nd in opponent rushing yards per game. Many folks have the Cowboys going for the third tight end here, but I just don’t see the need to reach for one this early. Lots of tight ends in this draft that grade out well.

27. Buffalo Bills

Who they should pick: I probably shouldn’t have to say too much here. Buffalo lost their top linebacker to the Bears in Tremaine Edmunds. I always thought that him and Roquan Smith were the two best Linebackers in their draft class. This position is their biggest hole on their team, so I would have to assume that they get it right and fill this hole with a top prospect. I like Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 pounds from Iowa.

Mock Pick: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson. This is a simple solution to a clear hole that needs to be filled. Trenton Simpson 6’2 235 pounds from Clemson is at least my next guy up after Jack Campbell. Simpson was a beast at Clemson and ran a fast 4.43 forty at the combine. This kid could turn out to be all-pro material.

Best Positional Bet: Fanduel +300 Bills first pick a Linebacker.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Who they should pick: Everyone is talking like the Bengals need a Tight End in the first round of this draft. I beg to differ being that their offense is more based on receivers as well as the fact that they signed Irv Smith from the Vikings. Losing safety Vonn Bell at Safety could hurt some and Eli Apple isn’t resigned at corner. I think that the Bengals should grab the best safety in this draft in Brian Branch 6’0 190 pounds from Alabama.

Mock Pick: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson. Like cornerbacks, we are really running out of edge rushers here. Bresee fits the 4-3 scheme at 6’5 305 pounds. He was hurt some last year, but he had a great Freshman season. Bresee had a great combine running a 4.86 forty showing NFL quickness. He will need some work, but with his talent, he could become an amazing player in the next level.

Speculative Value Bet: Bengals 1st pick a safety +5000

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Who they should pick: The Saints come in with a new look as Derek Carr will have the keys to their car for the 2023 season. The Saints turnover over their defensive line in free agency, and now they have to try and fix their offensive line only coming in 30th last season in many reputable rankings. The problem is that they have to first admit they were wrong in drafting Trevor Penning from an FCS school in Northern Iowa just last year. I say go for Anton Harrison from Oklahoma. At 6’4 315 pounds, this kid can block. He only allowed one sack in 425 pass blocking attempts.

Mock Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern. Some folks have this guy ranked number one, but I just do not see it quite that high. At 6’4 313 lbs, the kid can bench press an over-sized hog, but he needs to work on his speed.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick: Rumor has it that the Eagles will trade down here, but I have to stay consistent. This team needs a linebacker to fill in for the TJ Edwards loss, and they could use another good wide receiver. I would say to go with Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 lbs from Iowa, and if not him, Derick Hall 6’3 254 pounds from Auburn. Hall had 60 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year forcing three turnovers. He fits the scheme that the Eagles are trying to do.

Mock Pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State. I do not mind this pick at all. Felix is a little slower than Derick Hall, but his production was great at 8.5 sacks and 46 tackles last year. Felix is high on some draft boards and he has great NFL instincts.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Who they should pick: When you have Mahomes and Kelce, you are already half way there and the rest is gravy. I’ll take their situation any year and be happy. The Chiefs lost left tackle Orlando Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie to free agency, while they haven’t resigned defensive ends Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap. I say go with the next best 4-3 defensive end out there in Isaiah Foskey 6’5 265 pounds.

Mock Pick: Isaiah Foskey, DE. This kid could be a steal here. Foskey ran a nice 4.58 forty at the combine and benched 34 reps of 225 pounds. Foskey has the most sacks in Notre Dame history at 26.5. His tape really speaks for itself. Quite possibly the biggest edge steal of the draft.

We head to South Beach, whom I’m Backing and Why

Eric Rocco

April 24, 2023

Giannis is IN, Giannis is back and the Bucks are going to cover 8? Well that’s not how I see it. How can you back a Miami team that almost lost to the Bulls in an elimination game and are facing a hungry Bucks squad trying not to go back to Milwaukee down 3-1? Very easily my friends, yes I understand I’m in the minority here with this opinion. Frankly, that doesn’t bother me. When they stormed back vs the Bulls, these guys caught a 2nd wind and realized, hey we can still play vs these ‘better’ teams. They were one game away from going to the NBA Finals less than a year ago, I mean they were down 2 with 50 seconds left. This group of guys have been here before.

Yes I understand they have had a down season, but right now it’s irrelevant. Jimmy buckets is shooting over 60% from the field in this series, the resurgent Duncan Robinson has chipped in 34 points the last two games and as a team they’re shooting over 55% in the 3 games! None of this bodes well for a Bucks team that is very susceptible to giving up the 3, which is how Miami goes on their quick runs.

I know Milwaukee is VERY good, Giannis will be balls to the wall, but then again when is he not? If you played sports and ever had a back injury, it is one of the most impactful injuries out there. He is not 100% and won’t be. One elbow, one shoulder and the pain will reappear quickly. Am I saying he won’t finish the game, of course I’m not saying that, but then again he has been knocked out vs them twice in a few months. Luck has not been on their side when facing Miami, 0-5 at the Kaseya Center(weird calling it that) in the last 5 tries.

I just think 8 is just too many points to be giving up on the road in this spot. We have seen Miami play down to their opponents for sure, but they can play up to them as well. Which is why I’m tossing in a small ML play!

Heat +8 (PointsBet -110) 3 units

Heat ML +280 (PointsBet) 0.3 units

NHL Preview & Picks – April 25th, 2023

Patrick Gates

April 24, 2023

There are three games taking place tonight. I’ll break down with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

Matchups:

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Carolina Hurricanes (3) – New York Islanders (1)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Carolina Hurricanes	+145	+130	+1.5 (-210)	o5 (-140)
New York Islanders	-170	-150	-1.5 (+180)	u5 (+120)

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

Time: 8:00 PM ET
Series: Minnesota Wild (2) – Dallas Stars (2)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Minnesota Wild	+120	+120	+1.5 (-225)	o5.5 (+110)
Dallas Stars	-140	-140	-1.5 (+190)	u5.5 (-130)

Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers

Time: 9:30 PM ET
Series: Los Angeles Kings (2) – Edmonton Oilers (2)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Los Angeles Kings	+185	+185	+1.5 (-135)	o6.5 (-120)
Edmonton Oilers	-215	-215	-1.5 (+115)	u6.5 (+100)

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (+105) – DraftKings

The Islanders find themselves on the brink of elimination tonight. Their only win came on home ice in Game 3 which required overtime. Ilya Sorokin hasn’t been as dominant in the playoffs after posting a +38.7 GSAx in the regular season. He’s started each of the first four games of this series and has a merely -0.2 GSAx. On the other hand, Antti Raanta has been solid for Carolina with a +1.4 GSAx. The Hurricanes have controlled each game and currently lead the postseason in xGoals%. Without Sorokin standing on his head, this Islanders team is not as dominant and it’s shown in this series. I fully expect the Canes to end this series tonight on home ice.

Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 Points (-112) – FanDuel

Draisaitl has at least two points in three of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in each of the last four games. He’s currently 2nd in points this postseason with 9, only one behind Mitchell Marner. Head Coach Jay Woodcroft has stacked his top line pairing Draisaitl with McDavid and Kane. This line has accounted for the majority of minutes for this team offensively. Edmonton’s top Power Play, which Draistail is on, has also been great this series as well and has been given multiple opportunities in three of the first four games. We saw him elevate his game in the postseason last year and he’s doing it again this year.

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

Brent Burns over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
- Burns has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against New York. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.

Jamie Benn over 0.5 Points (-160) – DraftKings
- Benn has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Minnesota. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.

Mats Zuccarello over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
- Zuccarello has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Dallas. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.

Ryan Hartman over 0.5 Points (-108) – FanDuel
- Hartman has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Dallas. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last two games.

Evan Bouchard over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
- Bouchard has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.

Adrian Kempe over 0.5 Points (-165) – DraftKings
- Kempe has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Edmonton. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.

Evander Kane over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
- Kane has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.

Martin Necas over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
- Martin Necas has gone over this number in each game of their series against New York. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Two GREAT Spots for these Away Squads

Eric Rocco

April 23, 2023

The Kings came back to reality 3 days ago and got pummeled by a pissed off Dub Town, down by as many as 23 at one point. After back to back highly emotional games, most expected that performance. The Kings offense relies on the 3 ball, which GSW defends very well, Sacramento shot 23.5% from 3 in the last two games. If you remember in late January when they had their offensive struggles, they failed to consistently drain the 3. What can they do to score? Take more jump shots and GET TO THE RACK. “Light The Beam” is averaging 28 free throws per game in this series and when you attack the Warriors they have a tendency to foul, and foul often. We know the Warriors are great at home, hence the line, but Sacramento had the 2nd most road wins in basketball. Most are approaching this game simply as, bet against GSW on the road, bet on them at home. I don’t think it’s that easy, give me the points here.

Kings +7.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.4 units

Atlanta got 2 nights in their own bed and made the correct adjustments. They also got one would argue, Trae Young’s best playoff performance of his career and they flat out wanted it more than Boston. After 2 dominant victories I can’t say I was surprised. Now can we count on another stellar performance from Trae, I surely wouldn’t. One day of rest instead of two, will surely make a difference as well, trying to figure out ways to control Boston. Atlanta will have the home PLAYOFF crowd to keep them in it, but in the end the cream will rise to the top and Boston’s class will pull away. Lay the points!

If there is an opportunity to bet them live and you can get a low number take advantage of that as well.

Celtics -6.5 (PointsBet -110) 1.3 units

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