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The RBC Canadian Open – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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Viktor Hovland wins the Memorial Tournament outdueling Denny McCarthy in a playoff! It was nice to see him grab a win after struggling Sunday at the PGA Championship. Hovland now has two wins on Tour this season which matches his total from last year. As if we haven’t heard enough great stories about him, he caddied for one of his college teammates less than 24 hours following his win at Muirfield at one of the U.S. Open qualifiers.

We now head to Oakdale Golf & Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Let’s start with arguably the biggest news in the history of professional golf with the new merger between the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour. I won’t get into it during this article but expect something later in the week when we hopefully have some more details.

Rory McIlroy will look to become the first golfer to win the RBC Canadian Open three straight times. The last time a golfer won an event on the PGA Tour three times in a row was Steve Stricker from 1009-11 at the John Deere Classic. So far this season Viktor Hovland (WWT Championship), Sam Burns (Valspar Championship), and KH Lee (AT&T Byron Nelson) have all tried to accomplish this feat but fell short.

Ludvig Aberg will make his PGA Tour debut this week after finishing as the No.1 player in the final 2023 PGA TOUR University Ranking. He’s been ranked as the No.1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking since March and has earned his Tour card for the remainder of this season and next. He’s won several awards including the Jack Nicklaus Award, the Fred Haskins Award, and two Ben Hogan Awards. Aberg is the only player to have won the Ben Hogan Award in back-to-back years outside of Jon Rham.

Michael Block is also in the field this week after earning an exemption from his performance at the PGA Championship. He recently played in Charles Schwab Challenge where he missed the cut. Block also tried to qualify for the U.S. Open next week at Lambton Golf & Country Club on Monday where he came up short.

This is the first time that the RBC Canadian Open will be held at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. Ian Andrew renovated the course in 2018 restoring the course to its previous conditions while adding several new tee boxes as well. In addition to playing host to this year’s event, the RBC Canadian Open will also be held here in 2026.

The 123rd U.S. Open also takes place next week at Los Angeles Country Club. Several big-name players have elected to skip this event in preparation for that. This will also be the first time that the U.S. Open is held at this course.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: June 8th, 2023 – June 11th, 2023
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • Course: Oakdale Golf & Country Club
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 72 (3x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,264 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Bentgrass / Poa annua
  • Fairways: Bentgrass
  • Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass 4″-5″
  • Bunkers: 59
  • Water Hazard(s): – (In-Play on 4 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,620,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 70 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2022: +1
    • 2019: -2

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Stanley Thompson (1926) & Robbie Robinson (1957)
  • Renovations: Ian Andrew (2018)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • St. George’s Golf and Country Club – 2022 RBC Canadian Open – RESULTS
    • Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship – RESULTS
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Stanley Thompson):
    • St. George’s Golf and Country Club – Stanley Thompson (1929) – 2022 RBC Canadian Open
  • Comparable Location (Toronto, Ontario):
    • St. George’s Golf and Country Club – Toronto, Ontario – 2022 RBC Canadian Open
  • Comparable Yardage (7,264 Yards):
    • TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – 7,258 Yards – Farmers Insurance Open
    • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – 7,261 Yards – WM Phoenix Open
  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass/ Poa Annua):
    • Silverado Resort (North Course) – Poa annua / bentgrass – Fortinet Championship
    • TPC River Highlands – Bentgrass / Poa annua .110” – Travelers Championship
    • Detroit Golf Club – Bentgrass / Poa annua .100” – Rocket Mortgage Classic
    • Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Bentgrass / Poa annua .100” – Barracuda Championship
  • Comparable Average Green Size ( 6,000 sq. ft.):
    • Port Royal Golf Course – 6,000 sq. ft. – Butterfield Bermuda Championship
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
    • Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
    • Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Golf Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Corales Puntacana Championship
    • Keene Trace Golf Club (Champions Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Barbasol Championship
    • Sedgefield Country Club – 6,000 sq. ft. – Wyndham Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, June 8th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, June 9th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, June 10th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:30 PM – 5:30 PM ET
    • CBS – 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, June 11th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 1:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
    • CBS – 2:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Cloudy 63 F, 10 mp/h NNE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 9 mp/h SE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Partly Cloudy 71 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 59% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Showers 68 F, 11 mp/h ENE, 69% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The RBC Canadian Open was on hold during the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to the pandemic. However, it returned last year at St. George’s Golf and Country Club where Rory McIlroy captured his second title.

The Canadian Open was first played 118 years ago, in 1904. It is the third oldest continuously running tournament on the PGA Tour.

Oakdale Country Club will host the RBC Canadian Open for the first time. The club was founded in 1926 and hired Stanley Thompson to design the first nine holes. A few years later, he would complete an additional nine holes. In 1957, Stanley Thompson designed the final nine holes on the property. Most recently in 2018, Ian Andrew completed a renovation restoring the course to Thompson’s vision while making several other necessary changes.

 

  • 72-Hole Record:
    • 258, Rory McIlroy (2019)
  • 18-Hole Record:
    • 60, Carl Pettersson (3rd round, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC), Justin Rose (4th round, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oakdale Country Club should be one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. While we don’t know a ton about this course, the past few winners of the RBC Canadian Open have had scores around -20. I would expect that trend to continue this week placing a premium on birdies. The course setup is a little untraditional as the layout for this week is comprised of three nine-hole courses (Thompson, Homenuik, & Knudson).

In terms of length, Oakdale Country Club is one of the shorter courses on Tour measuring 7,264 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in length. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 59 bunkers which ranks as the 11th fewest out of 46 courses.

The three Par 3’s, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 14, range between 172 yards and 208 yards. 

Five of the twelve Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 354 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 489 yards. None of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards.

The three Par 5’s are No. 7, No. 12, & No. 18.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass / Poa Annua)
  • Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 (x5)
  • Birdies or Better
  • Driving Accuracy
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s RBC Canadian Open. Five of the world’s top-twenty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+450) is the two-time defending champion of the RBC Canadian Open. He’s coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship. In his ten starts on the PGA Tour this season he has only won once which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) missed the cut in his debut at the RBC Canadian Open last year. He’s been playing some great golf this year having only missed the cut once which was at the Valero Texas Open. Since that event, he has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last five starts on Tour. During that span, his best finish was at the Wells Fargo Championship (T3).

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) will make his third appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He missed the cut in his debut (2016) but finished tied for tenth last year. Fitzpatrick won his second PGA Tour event earlier this season outdueling Jordan Spieth in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. After a missed cut at the PGA Championship, he rebounded nicely in his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament finishing T9.

Cameron Young (+1400) comes into the RBC Canadian Open struggling having missed the cut in each of his last two starts. His putting was mainly to blame as it was atrocious in both events. Outside of that, Young has been close to his first career PGA Tour victory finishing second at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Event and third at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his first time playing in the RBC Canadian Open.

Sam Burns (+1400) finished tied for fourth in his RBC Canadian Open debut last year. After missing back-to-back cuts at the Wells Fargo Championship and PGA Championship, Burns has been playing better as of late. In his most recent start, he finished T16 at the Memorial Tournament. Prior to that, he finished T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field:
    • Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19), Brandt Snedeker (’13), Scott Piercy (’12), Sean O’Hair (’11)
  • Canadians in the Field:
    • Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson, Mike Weir, Ben Silverman, Aaron Cockerill, Wil Bateman, Myles Creighton, Taylor Durham, Michael Gligic, David Hearn, Daniel Kim. Stuart Macdonald, Drew Nesbitt, Etienne Papineau, Roger Sloan, Sebastian Szirmak, Johnny Travale
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • Troy Merritt, Anders Albertson, Dylan Frittelli, Stephan Jaeger, Philip Knowles, Davis Riley, Byeong Hun An, Sam Stevens, Luke List, Zac Blair, Ben Griffin, Charley Hoffman, Davis Thompson, Joseph Bramlett

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]

  • Rory McIlroy: 1/ 1
  • Shane Lowry: MC/ T12 / T2 / T10
  • Hank Lebioda: T14/ T28

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]

  • Sunghoon Kang: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
  • Brice Garnett: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
  • Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
  • Derek Lamely: MC/ MC
  • Joseph Bramlett: MC/ MC
  • Martin Trainer: MC/ MC
  • Cameron Champ: MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19) at St. George’s Golf and Country Club
    • Price: 10-1
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22) at Hamilton Golf and Country Club
    • Price: 10-1
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
    • Price: 7-1
  • 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
    • Price: 125-1
  • 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
    • Price: 125-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
  • Sam Burns (+1400) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Sahith Theegala (+115) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
  • Eric Cole (+220) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the RBC Canadian Open: 3.16 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

FREEPLAY on the Diamond

By
Eric Rocco
-

Been a while since I have released a FREEPLAY baseball article. Why not do it in a game I have a strong opinion on! I’m personally unloading on this game, with multiple plays.

If you would like to receive all of my Premium Plays head to theoddsbreakers website OR shoot me a direct message on Twitter @TrustRocco.

Be sure to follow along and listen to my weekly Podcast, Rocco’s SPORTS Mission. I promise you will be entertained, you get to hear all of my different angles and possibly unpopular takes on a few different sports.

Dodgers -1 (BetMGM -147) risking 2.21u to win 1.5u

If there is no -1 offered, bet the ML at -175: risk 1.4u to win 0.8u AND bet the RL at -115: risk 0.8u to win 0.7u.

The Dodgers cannot get out of ‘dodge’ fast enough, the Yankees held a blueprint on how to STOP this LA hitting brigade. As I have said in the past, new series, new team, different outcome. Now they get to face a franchise they have been very successful in the past, winning 5 straight in Cincinnati and winning 37 of their last 53 vs the Reds. Yes, I know who cares about trends from years ago? Normally I don’t, but when you have that much success vs one franchise there is usually a reason for it. Let’s also take into consideration the Dodgers have lost two straight games and they look lost at the plate. Tonight they face a righty who many of these hitters have had tons of success vs in the past, Luke Weaver. LA is 18-7 SU off of a loss with a +2 run differential averaging 6.32 runs per game. Weaver has struggled at Great American Ball Park with a 5.64 ERA, while giving up 7 home runs in 4 starts. The Dodgers counter with Tony Gonsolin, IMO one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He started the season on the IL, but picked up where he left his 2022 campaign before getting hurt, with 7 EXCELLENT starts this year. Sporting a 1.77 ERA so far in 2023, with an opponent batting average at a gaudy .151! With RISP hitting .095.

Sportsbook Review: Draft Kings

By
Michael N
-

DraftKings(DK) will be my litmus test for reviews. One of the more prominent and available in most legal states.

Why would you use a sportsbook?
Simple answer is ease. this is the most “legal” way to gamble (barring you are using a licensed book in your state). There is extreme convience to using a mobile app as opposed to going to a cash counter, anywhere anytime.

What is the advantage to DraftKings?
If you are looking for a line and DK doesn’t offer it, you will likely never find that line. To me this is by far their biggest advantage just the sheer volume of bets you can place.

DK is available in 21 states. (26 states have legal mobile gambling) Unlike some of the the competition, Draft Kings does not require a state specific book app. Some books force you to have a different version of their app by each state it is in. That is incredibly annoying, if you are like me and already have limited space on your phone.

I don’t have stats to back this up, but I feel like DK is constantly getting some of the better lines.

The interface, search functions and just ease of use is top tier books.

What is the disadvantage to DraftKings?
As most books, it’s the fee. It does suck to pay a fee every time I place a wager. If you are in one of the 5 states that draft kings is not available, I’m sorry.

Because they are such a large company, they don’t give out great sign up bonuses anymore.

Some books gave out huge sign up bonuses, or promos like a free jersey.

Because DK already has such a good base of users, bonuses are just meh now.

If you are quality “bettor” they will limit your stakes quick. But most books will.

Why use a mobile sportsbook?
You don’t have to be at a physical sportsbook to place bets. You can live bet. It is more than anything the ease.

Also some physical books will limit your payouts. So if you like betting lotto ticket parlays, the mobile books usually allow a larger maximum payout. (I was in Vegas for the weekend with some friends. Bet MGM in the Mirage limited our total payout to $24,999. I usually don’t see DK limiting bettors on lotto parlays until the odds reach +20,000 range.

What lines do they offer?
Every line you could possibly want is likely listed on DK.

What makes DraftKings different from other exchanges?
Volume of bets that can be placed. I can’t say for certain, but I tend to think i see better lines when shopping at DK. Only taking a mental note of that and not actually tracking which one does.

Is there an App?
Yes, and it’s arguably my favorite interface. But that is all a personal preference.

Is it safe?
Yes, they have all the same safety regulations that any book will offer. They also have the dual verification logins.

Rating –
1= This book should fold immediately and never attempt to offer lines again
10= nothing needs changed, this is the only book anyone needs
8.5

DraftKings in my opinion is the top book/app. In terms of simplicity, volume of bets, ease of use, and availability, its right there with the best of them if not the benchmark book.

Because it is not in every state(that it is legal) and the bonuses are mediocre, it gets a small 0.25 knock. I’ll give it another point knock for lines being cheesy sometimes and they push incredibly ridiculous Same Game Parlays or bets onto the user. I’ll knock it another 0.25 for it not always having the best lines.

You can’t do everything right. DK however does a lot right. These are based off my experience, if you have other opinions about them let me know at @freecheekid over on twitter.

If you haven’t signed up: DraftKings Sign Up

 

NHL Preview & Picks – Stanley Cup Finals Game 2

By
Patrick Gates
-

Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals takes place tonight between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

If you’re looking for a more in-depth Game 2 breakdown check out the Expected Bets For Podcast!

Video Link

Apple Podcast Link

Spotify Link

 

Matchups:

Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Series: Florida Panthers (0) – Vegas Golden Knights (1) (Game 2)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +110 +120 +1.5 (-225) o5.5 (-120)
Vegas Golden Knights -130 -140 -1.5 (+190) u5.5 (+100)

 

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Vegas Golden Knights (-140) – DraftKings
  • Adin Hill over 29.5 Saves (-120) – Caesars [2 Units]

After losing the first game of the series, I expect the Florida Panthers to come out firing tonight. In the first game of the series, they had 35 shots. Through their first seventeen games of the playoffs, the Panthers average 31.9 Shots on Goal per game. On the road, that number jumps up to 33.9. Vegas has also allowed the fourth most shots on goal against per game this postseason averaging 32.5.

 

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

  • Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 Points (-102) – FanDuel

Ivan Barbahsev is on the top line for Vegas with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. That line has been great for the Golden Knights and currently ranks number one in terms of expected goals for (xGoals For) with 9.4 throughout the playoffs. Barbashev has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. His ice time has also been increasing as the playoffs have gone on. While he isn’t on the first Power Play Unit for Vegas, he is on the second which should see some action tonight as Florida has multiple penalties in five of their last six games. If you’re looking for some value tonight, I think Barbashev is worth a look given his other linemates’ odds to record over half a point are -160 (Marchessault) and -210 (Eichel). In the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals, Barbashev had one assist. 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Expected Bets For – Episode 42 – June 5th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down our best bets for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Stanley Cup Series Game 1 Recap
  • NHL Preview/ Picks (Game 2) – June 5th, 2023
    • Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NFC West 2023 Preview – Season Win Totals – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The NFC West last year at this time was looked at as one of the best divisions in football.  That quickly changed though with how poorly the Cardinals played started the season, as well as the huge injuries to the LA Rams.   The Seahawks were able to over-achieve some due to this, while the 49ers won a bunch of games without a real quarterback.  One has to wonder if Brock Purdy would have been able to win that game vs the Eagles without the elbow injury.  I say no.   Anyways, this division has it pretty rough in general this year having to play the AFC North and the NFC East for their respective schedules.  There is no doubt in my mind that some of these teams may have the exact same issues as they did last year.   Let’s take a deeper dive into the NFC West.

Divisional Futures:  49ers -150 – Seahawks +200 – LA Rams +750 – Cardinals – +2500

1.  San Francisco 49ers –

Vegas Win Total:  10.5 juiced to the over -120

2022 Wins:  13

Pythagorean Wins:  12.44

Schedule:  Medium Easy – At large games @ Minnesota, @ Jacksonville, vs Tampa Bay

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RT Mike McGlinchey, DE Samson Ebukam, DE Charles Omenihu, S Jimmy Ward, CB Emmanuel Mosley, T Daniel Brunskill, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Hassan Ridgeway, K Robbie Gould, DC DeMeco Ryans.

Key additions: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Sam Darnold, DE Clelin Ferrell, C Jon Feliciano

Key Draft Picks:  S JiAyir Brown, K Jake Moody, TE Cameron Latu and a bunch of hope.

Summary:  Last year, I said that John Lynch is going to come out of the 2022 season either looking like an idiot, or looking like a genius with not much middle ground there.  Now, I guess I have to admit that I was somewhat wrong.  Even though Trey Lance became a total bust, the whole Brock Purdy thing worked out well, at least according to the media, but I am going to pump the brakes a bit on that.   By the time Brock got in to play his first real game on November 21st, the 49ers were past the hard part of their schedule.  Brock played the Cardinals, a Tua-less Miami, a bad Tampa Bay, at overrated Seattle, vs Washington without a QB, at the Raiders, and vs the Cardinals.   Dak was horrible in their playoff game while the 49ers only won it 19-12.   I mean, all the credit goes to Kyle Shanahan and I think he could have worked that kind of magic with many second rate quarterbacks.  Here is the good news, the 49ers will get Purdy back sometime this season, so that we can actually see what he is made of.  in the mean time, Sam Darnold is an experienced quarterback that might be able to look very good to great in Kyle Shanahan’s amazing system.   Here is some more good news.   The 49ers get to play the Cardinals, Seahawks, and the Rams twice.  I could see this team relying on their amazing coach this year springing them to the NFC conference champion to maybe a super bowl appearance.  In saying that, I could also see this team struggle some if their quarterback play is poor due to a rough NFC East and AFC North schedule.   As far as rest is concern, the 49ers got pretty much screwed being that they are the least rested team with -20 rest days total throughout the season.  I think this team can get to 11 or 12 wins, but it won’t be easy with all of the guys that they had to turn over to free agency.

My Number: 10.72

Action:  No Action

San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 5.5

2. Seattle Seahawks –

Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -130

2022 Wins:  9

Pythagorean Wins:  8.55

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Detroit, vs Carolina, @ Tennessee

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy – 

Key losses: DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Cody Barton, DT Al Woods, RB Rashaad Penny, DT Shelby Harris

Key additions: DE Dre’Mont Jones, S Julian Love, DE Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Devon Bush, G Evan Brown

Key draft picks: CB Devon Witherspoon, WR Jaxon-Smith-Njigba, Edge Derick Hall, RB Zach Charbonnett, and a bunch of guys

Summary:  If there was a team that I was wrong about from 2022, it was the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle is such an interesting team coming into 2023 being that I feel that they over-achieved last year, yet I really like what this team did in free agency this year.  Last year, their biggest weakness was stopping the run.  This team allowed 151 rushing yards per game ranking third to last.  I really like the fact that the Seahawks dumped most of their defensive line, and replaced it with better players in Dre’Mont Jones, and Jarran Reed.  You also have to love the fact that Bobby Wagner is back at Linebacker from their 2014 super bowl team along with a huge pick up from the Steelers in Devon Bush.   The Seahawks also grabbed the best corner in the draft in Devon Witherspoon along with another weapon for Gino in Jaxson Smith-Njigba.   The offense here is stacked with DK Metcalf at the number one receiver, Kenneth Walker at running back, and Noah Fant at tight end.  I feel like this team maybe should have taken another three technique (nose tackle) earlier in the draft, but maybe Bryan Mone steps up big this year to help stop the run.  I came into this preview really not wanting to like Seattle, but I can’t ignore some of the great moves that this team put together in the offseason.  I think this team makes the playoffs this year as long as Gino can be at least an average quarterback.

My number: 9.78

Action – over

Seattle’s Power Rating: 2.5

3. LA Rams –

Vegas win total: 6.5

2022 Wins: 5 

Pythagorean Wins:  6.31

Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, vs New Orleans

Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard

Key losses: K Matt Gay, S Nick Stott, LB Bobby Wagner, DE A’Shawn Robinson,  QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, Edge Leonard Floyd, WR Allen Robinson

Key additions: none but QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp should be back.

Key Draft Picks: G Steve Avila, Edge Byron Young, QB Stetson Bennet and a bunch of prayers.

Summary:  There has never been more of a super bowl hangover like the Rams suffered last year.   I am not sure that they will shake this headache when they lost so much of their top draft capital from trades from the previous seasons.   I think that they did just ok, with what they had to work with in the 2023 NFL draft, but I also think that Matthew Stafford could be at the twilight of his career.  This defense pretty much shed everyone except for Aaron Donald.  The Jalen Ramsey trade for a third round pick to the Dolphins really says a lot to me about what this team is really trying to do.  The only good news is that Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp will be back healthy for another run at this, but this offensive line went from very good to very bad pretty fast which could mean bad offensive numbers all around.  for 2023, one will not really be able to recognize this Rams team from a few years back.   Even though that LA under-achieved by about 1.3 games per their Pythagorean win total, I just do not see a lot of future here with the losses that they suffered in the offseason.   This team also is the second worst for net negative days rest behind the 49ers at -17.  This team is only favored in two games this year both against the Cardinals.  The Rams make me want to coin a new phrase for the next first round draft pick for 2024 next year.   Let’s go with #CollapseforCaleb!

My Number:  5.66

Action – Lean Under

LA Rams power rating:  -2.5

4.  Arizona Cardinals – 

Vegas Win Total:  4.5 juiced to the over -125

2022 Wins:  4

Pythagorean Wins:  5.91

Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Atlanta, @ Houston, @ Chicago

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses: Coach Kliff Kingsbury, DT JJ Watt, WR D’Andre Hopkins, DE Zach Allen, CB Byron Murphy, WR Robbie Anderson, C Robbie Hudson

Key additions: Coach Jonathan Gannon, QB Kyler Murray from injury, OLB Kyzir White, WR Zach Pascal, T Dennis Daley and a ton of dudes for league minimum.

Key Draft Picks: T Paris Johnson, Edge BJ Ojuari, CB Garrett Williams and a bunch of hope.

Summary:  I am scared that I might have gotten Steve Keim fired from all of my complaints about him on twitter…  Or maybe it was that whole Mexico thing…  Anyways Steve probably deserved to be fired because he decided to draft a child, and then after he found out that he was a child, he still decided to pay that child a ton of money making the next regime now stuck with a very expensive liability.   JJ Watt saw that he himself made a massive mistake in allowing his trade to this Cardinals team, so he then decided to hang it up a little early and retire.   I feel like JJ still has two or three more good years left in him.  The latest development is cutting a top three wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins.   This is a horrible move this early.  I mean, why not hold on to him a while and try and trade him mid-season to a contender with injuries?   It makes no sense to me.  Anyways, the best thing that is happening for the Cardinals is that the expectations are very low on this team, and now just maybe they can fly under the radar.   Arizona at least still has WRs Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore, but it wouldn’t shock me if one of them requests a trade during a very potentially turbulent season.   In my opinion, there is no reason to keep them all if Kyler Murray has no time to throw to any of them anyways.   Moore at least is in his second year and can stick it out a bit longer without a high salary.  I would like to say that at least the Cardinals are trying to fix their defense with the Jonathan Gannon hire, but I also think that Gannon is a little bit overrated due to the Eagles cake schedule that they had last year.   There is also a chance that video gamer quarterback Kyler Murray might confuse his coach with the main boss in Zelda (Gannon) and therefore might put an arrow through his eye.  I think this team gets four or five wins, and unless Kyler Murray has matured, this team might compete for the worst team in the league.

My Number:  4.46

Action –  No lean

Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -5.75

NHL Preview & Picks – Stanley Cup Finals Game 1

By
Patrick Gates
-

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals takes place tonight between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Matchups:

Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Series: Florida Panthers – Vegas Golden Knights (Game 1)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +115 +110 +1.5 (-230) o5.5 (-120)
Vegas Golden Knights -135 -130 -1.5 (+195) u5.5 (+100)

 

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Vegas Golden Knights (-130) – DraftKings

When looking at these two teams, there’s not much of a difference between them. Both have had their goaltenders step up providing some much-needed support. However, I would give the slight edge to Vegas in terms of their defensemen and depth scoring, both of which are critical in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have been solid at home as of late and have shown their ability to outplay their opponents. While Florida did sweep their last series, they were overpowered in terms of expected goals. The difference maker was again, stop me if you heard this before, Sergei Bobrovsky. Vegas’ forward core has done a great job of getting bodies in front of the net and taking advantage of rebounds which is the formula for success when trying to beat a hot goaltender. While I expect this to be a back-and-forth series, I think Vegas starts off Game 1 with a win at home.

 

Leans:

  • Florida Panthers/ Vegas Golden Knights 1P Under 1.5 (-115) – DraftKings

 

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

  • Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 Points (+105) – DraftKings

Ivan Barbahsev is on the top line for Vegas with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. That line has been great for the Golden Knights and currently ranks number one in terms of expected goals for (xGoals For) with 8.9 throughout the playoffs. Barbashev has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. His ice time has also been increasing as the playoffs have gone on. While he isn’t on the first Power Play Unit for Vegas, he is on the second which should see some action tonight as Florida has multiple penalties in five of their last six games. If you’re looking for some value tonight, I think Barbashev is worth a look given his other linemates’ odds to record over half a point are -150 (Marchessault) and -195 (Eichel).  

 

  • Sergei Bobrovsky over 29.5 Saves (+110) – DraftKings

I expect the Golden Knights to come out firing at home tonight. Through their first seventeen games of the playoffs, they’ve averaged 30 Shots on Goal a game. Florida has also allowed the most shots on goal against per game this postseason averaging 37.3. On the road, that number jumps up to 41.9.

The line tonight is set at 29.5 saves which is low when compared to the last four games when it varied between 30.5 and 31.5. In each of his last four games, he’s gone over this number.

 

Series Futures:

  • Series Total – 6 Games (+205)
    • Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.05 Units
  • Series Total – 7 Games (+200)
    • Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.00 Unit

I expect this series to go at least 6 games. These teams match up very well and play a similar style of hockey. While I expect Vegas to win their first-ever Stanley Cup, I think it takes them at least 6 games to close out this pesky Panthers team.

 

Series Futures (if you’d like to back Florida):

If you’re looking to bet Florida to win the Stanley Cup, here’s an alternative angle you may want to take a look at. Florida has two front runners to win the Conn Smythe which are Sergei Bobrovskiy and Matthew Tkachuk. Bobrovsky currently leads all goaltenders this postseason with a +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The last goalie to win the Conn Smythe was Andrei Vasilevskiy back in 2021. Before that, a goalie hadn’t won this award since 2012. Matthew Tkachuk has 21 points through 16 games in the playoffs and is only behind Roope Hintz. If Florida does go on to win the Stanley Cup, I believe the trophy will go to one of these two players so Option B may be a better angle given the value.

 

Option A: Single Bet – Panthers Series Future

  • Florida Panthers to Win the Series (+105 – DraftKings)
    • Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.05 Units.

 

Option B: Two Bets – Conn Smythe Angle

  • Sergei Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe (+210 – DraftKings)
    • Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.05 Units

 

  • Matthew Tkachuk to win the Conn Smythe (+290 – DraftKings)
    • Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.45 Units

 

Series Futures (if you’d like to back Vegas):

  • Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe (+425 – DraftKings)
  • Jonathan Marchessault to win the Conn Smythe (+700 – DraftKings)

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

MLB 6/3/23 Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Guardians vs Twins -131 O/U 7.5

This should be a great matchup of pitchers.   Logan Allen visits Minni boasting a 2.72 ERA and a 2.93 FIP.  The Twins have an ace starting themselves in Sonny Gray with a huge 1.94 ERA and a 2.19 FIP .  Allen is a lefty and the Twins tend to struggle vs Lefties only ranking 25th in wRC+.  Cleveland is the worst hitting team vs righties in the whole league ranking 30th in wRC+.  Both bullpens are rested and in the top 15.  Wind is blowing in at about 6 MPH.   Grab the under.

Under 7.5 – 1 star

Expected Bets For – Episode 41 – June 2nd, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker and I break down the Stanley Cup Finals and our best bets for Game 1.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Stanley Cup Series Preview
  • NHL Preview/ Picks (Game 1) – June 3rd, 2023
    • Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NFC East 2023 Preview – Season Win Totals – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The NFC East:   Last year, we went 2-0 in season win totals in this division with the Eagles and the Cowboys both hitting their overs.  The NFC East went from the worst division in football to pretty darn good over the last two or three years.   We had three, count it, three teams make the playoffs last year from this group of teams.   This year, the NFC East gets the NFC West who has two easier teams in the Rams and the Cardinals, as well as the AFC East which a little bit rough.   The clock is ticking on the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs, while the Eagles had it very easy in the playoffs only to get reffed out of their potential Super Bowl winning drive.   The Giants and the Commanders are going to be very interesting this year.   Can New York repeat a playoff appearance?   Can Riverboat Ron work his magic this year when expectations are low?   Let’s see how all of this pans out.

Divisional Odds:  Eagles -120 – Cowboys +190 – NY Giants +800 – Commanders +1100

1.  Philadelphia Eagles – 

Vegas win total: 11.5

2022 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  11.45

Schedule: Medium – At large vs Minnesota, @ Tampa Bay, @ Kansas City

Schedule Last Year: Easy – 

Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, T Andre Dillard, RB Miles Sanders, G Isaac Seumalo, S Marcus Epps, OLB Kyzir white, OLB TJ Edwards

Key additions: RB D’Andre Swift, QB Marcus Mariota, S Terrell Edmunds, CB Greedy Williams

Whom they drafted: DT Jalen Carter, Edge Nolan Smith, T Tyler Steen, S Syndey Brown, CB Kelee Ringo

Summary: The game of football is won in the trenches, and nobody knows that more than the Philadelphia Eagles.   This team has consistently reloaded their offensive and defensive lines over the past 10 years or so, and they have many playoff births and a super bowl win to show.   The difficult thing for this team is now that they had to pay their quarterback Jalen Hurts, they will certainly have to shed some talent and it already started happening this year.   One thing that this team did that I found was brilliant was drafting the whole state of Georgia over the past few years.   These guys know how to win and it is very hard for me to find much fault in this fully loaded draft pool.   If there is anything that I can pick on, it’s that the birds did lose a few guys on the offensive line.   They had to shed some money in the secondary, but if this draft turns out, this defense will not miss a beat.  As far as their season win total goes, I think that 11.5 is the perfect number for this team. The Eagles have the best defense in the league right now, and I believe they will be primed for another big super bowl run.

My Number:  11.73

Action – no play

Philadelphia Power rating: 6

2.  Dallas Cowboys – 

Vegas win total: 9.5 Juiced to the over -155 or 10 juiced to the under -105

2022 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  11.2

Schedule: Medium – At Large vs @ LA Chargers, @ Carolina, vs Detroit

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses: OC Kellen Moore, G Conner McGovern, TE Dalton Schultz, RB Ezekiel Elliot, OLB Anthony Barr, CB Anthony Brown

Key additions: RB Ronald Jones

Whom they drafted: DT Mazi Smith, TE Luke Schoonmaker, Edge DeMarvian Overshown and a bunch of hope.

Summary:  Dallas was a very solid team last year and they over achieved expectations by wining 12 games.   In saying that, there was no better team in the fumble luck category with Dallas netting a massive +12 fumbles last year that really helped them to grab the wild-card and to get into the playoffs.  It’s almost kind of sad to win 12 games and not win the division, making a good team have to go on the road for the whole post-season.   The biggest issue with fumble luck is that fumbles are not as predictable as interceptions.  Fumbles are much more random, and it is not correct to expect the same results for the 2023 season.   The Cowboys have not resigned Zeke, and I do not think that relationship fosters an progress with this franchise in the future.   Tony Pollard is the better running back, but now below average running backs like Malik Davis and Ronald Jones will have to step it up to carry some of the weight.   I do not like this Cowboys team coming into the 2023 season.   They will have a tricky schedule this year with some difficult at large games.   I think the under is the way to go here at the 10.

My Number: 9.2

Action: Under

Dallas Power Rating: 3.25

3. New York Giants –

Vegas Win total:  is 7.5 juiced to the under -120

2022 Wins:  9.5

Pythagorean Wins:  8.16

Schedule: Medium Hard:  At large games @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, @ New Orleans

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses:  G Nick Gates, S Justin Love, C Jon Feliciano, WR Richie James, WR Kenny Golladay 

Key additions: LB Bobby Okereke, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DE A’Shawn Robinson, WR Paris Campbell, WR Jamison Crowder, TE Darren Waller

Key Draft Picks:  CB Deonte Banks, C John Michael Schmitz, WR Jalin Hyatt

Summary:  Coach Brian Daboll had himself a wonderful first year getting this team to the playoffs and somehow winning coach of the year over guys like Doug Peterson who took the Jaguars to a divisional win.  This was a really huge accomplishment in looking at how tough the NFC East was last year.  The G-men won a lot of one score games last year with some nice clutch play from Danny dimes.   They also exposed a fraud in the playoffs in the Minnesota Vikings, but the real question is, were the Giants frauds as well?   The answer is probably somewhere between a maybe and an absolutely.  The Giants overachieved their Pythagorean win total by 1.36 games.   The big issue for New York really was their defense in general last year.   This team was in the bottom 20s in both opponent passing yards and rushing yards per game as well as ranking 28th in defensive overall EPA.   So what does this team do to fix this?   Very little actually.   They did pick up a few guys like Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A’Shawn Robinson, but I still think think that this team will struggle at the linebacker position as well as the secondary.  The Giants could have done more in free agency to make a legit run for a championship.  Offensively, I thought that Richie James was a wonderful get last year to help ease the injuries of Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard, yet they let him walk after this year in free agency.   I also have to wonder how Saquon Barkley will be without a contract.   Does he get paid or not?   He was a key to the success of this offense last year.   The Giants schedule looks pretty good from an at large situation, but they didn’t get many favors from the NFL netting negative nine games of rest which is fifth worst in the league.   This team should be around the middle of the pack next year.

My Number:  7.83

Action – No Play

NY Giants Power Rating: -1

4.  Washington –

Vegas Win total:  6.5 juiced to the over -120

2022 Wins:  8.5

Pythagorean Wins:  8.13

Schedule:  Medium Hard – At large games @Denver, vs Chicago, @ Atlanta

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: QB Carson Wentz, LB Cole Holcomb, QB Taylor Heinicke, G Wes Schweitzer, RB JD McKissic, G Trai Turner

Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy, QB Jacoby Brissett, G Nick Gates, T Andrew Wylie, LB Cody Barton, G Trenton Scott, DE Abdullah Anderson

Key draft picks: CB Emmanuel Forbes, CB Jartavious Martin, C Ricky Stromberg, T Braeden Daniels

Summary:  Lots of changes coming in for the Commies.  Now that the Carson Wentz experiment blew up in their faces, Washington decided to remove him and go and get a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy from the Kansas City Chiefs.   Now Bieniemy is highly touted and has been mentioned a lot for new head coaching opportunities but one has to wonder some if it was really all Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, or is Bieniemy responsible for some of the success.   After watching how Matt Nagy faired with the Chicago Bears, I have to think that his chances might be a little slim.   In saying that, this Washington offense was so bad last year, that there is really not much room to get any worse!   I do like how this team finished their season strong using Sam Howell vs the Cowboys to win 26-6, which might give him some momentum coming into this season.  I also like the fact that this defense should be one of the best in football.   Last year, the Commies ranked fifth in defensive EPA and number one in success rate.  They unfortunately lost linebacker Cole Holcomb to free agency, but they did replace him with Cody Barton.  They also drafted some good cornerbacks that help them in a very rough division against guys like Ceedee Lamb, Devonte Smith, and AJ Brown.  I really think that the success of this team will go through their young quarterback, and he has some very good weapons at the skill positions.   From a scheduling standpoint, I thought that being the 4th place team was rougher than finishing third being that they have to go to Denver, instead of Las Vegas, but this team is tied for the most net rest days with Chicago and the Jets with +12 days rest.  They do not get any teams coming off of a bye week.     I think their win total is a tad bit too low and this team could be primed for a run at a wildcard spot.

My number:  8.61

Power Rating: -2.5

Action – Take to make playoffs +300 – .5 stars

*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team

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