This has the makings of a fun game in Boston. The Red Sox are dogs to the team with the best record in baseball, but how sustainable is Tampa’s record when they had a pretty easy schedule thus far. Either way, I am looking more at the total for this one. Tyler Glasnow is pitching for the Rays who hasn’t had much action since 2021 due to injuries. This could blow up on him easily. Garrett Whitlock takes the helm for the Red Sox and he hasn’t been all that good at all with a 5.14 ERA and a 5.53 FIP. Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom nine in FIP. The winner of this game will have to put a bunch of runs on the board. This is quite ok for the Rays being that they are the number one team in weighted runs created (wRC+) while the Red Sox are number nine. Both teams are top three in Runs per game. Lastly, these are the top two overs teams in the league both going over their total at a 61%+ clip. Take the over today in Boston.
I have a great show for everyone today! You will be listening to my inaugural podcast!
I’m your host Eric Rocco, and I will provide you with a little biography on me, my background and how I have gotten to this point in my life. Also what to expect on my podcast today and going forward. Then we get to talk about the NBA Finals, CFL(Canadian Football League) and a few MLB series this weekend I have my eye on. And as always we will end it with “Reflect with Rocco.”
I would love some feedback as this is my first podcast, so you can reach out to the website with any thoughts or Direct Message me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to discuss some football and UFC! First, Kiev rants a little about the NBA MVP voting, and how ridiculous their decision making was for the East. Next, we get right into some football with some more divisional previews to finish out the NFC. Which teams go over their win total? Who goes under? Any futures plays worth looking at? Finally, we get into some UFC on ESPN Kai Kara France vs Amir Albazi with a few Free Plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Congrats to all Emiliano Grillo backers last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. After blowing a two-stroke lead on the 18th, he was able to rebound and defeat Adam Schneck in a playoff. He earned his second career PGA Tour win with his last coming in 2015 at the Fortinent Championship.
We now head to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Patrick Cantlay reigns supreme in terms of course history at Muirfield Village with two victories. In his six appearances at this event, Cantlay has four top-10 finishes. He’s also made the cut each time as well. Cantlay has yet to win this season but has been playing well as of late with eight top-20 finishes in his last nine starts. Earlier this month, he switched caddies to Joe LaCava, who was on Tigers bag for a while. LaCava has also worked with Freddy Couples and Dustin Johnson as well. We’ll see if Cantlay can finally grab his first win since the 2022 BMW Championship.
Jon Rham also has some pretty impressive course history here as well. He won at Muirfield back in 2020 and finished tied for tenth last year. Rahm was also on his way to another victory here in 2021 but was forced to withdraw before the final round with a six-stroke lead after testing positive for COVID-19.
Billy Horschel will look to defend his title at Muirfield Village this week, which was also his last win on the PGA Tour. In his sixteen starts this season, he has more missed cuts (6) than top 20 finishes (4).
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 88 F, 9 mp/h E, 44% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Memorial Tournament was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus, who was also one of the original architects of the course. Nicklaus spent his early years in Columbus so this course, which is just 20 miles north, holds a special place in his heart.
Muirfield Village has hosted the tournament since its debut. In 2020, Muirfield Village hosted two back-to-back tournaments due to COVID scheduling conflicts. The first event was the Workday Charity Open and the following tournament was the Memorial Tournament. Collin Morikawa defeated Justin Thomas in a playoff in the Workday Charity Open and then lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff a week later.
Following those two events, the course underwent a rather large renovation. They lengthened the course from 7,392 yards to the current yardage of 7,533. In addition to length, they also increased the difficulty by adding some new greenside and fairway bunkers. Most of the greens have been reconstructed as well with new bentgrass.
The Memorial Tournament is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
72-Hole Record:
268, Tom Lehman (1994)
18-Hole Record:
61, John Huston (Round 2, 1996)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Muirfield Village is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only five holes had a scoring average under par which included the four Par 5’s.
In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,571 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 33.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 68 bunkers which ranks as the 17th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 12, & No. 16, range between 180 yards and 220 yards. At the 2022 Memorial Tournament, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.
No. 12, 180 Yards, Par 3: “Depending on the pin, the choice here is either a short iron into the left side of the two-tiered green or take one more club to find the right side of the green. Obviously, the tee shot must cover the large lake which also guards the right side as well. The back bunker is no bargain and is not a place you want to be.”
No. 16, 220 Yards, Par 3: “Patrons might not notice the difference in the 16th hole, but players certainly have. After we redesigned the hole prior to the 2013 Presidents Cup, it just didn’t play like I wanted or what the Memorial field liked. The green wouldn’t hold shots, especially on the back left. It turned out that the left side pitched away from you, and that should not have been the case. So, we took eight inches from the middle of the green and added eight inches to the left. Now, although golfers are using the same club as before, the green runs toward them and not away from them, and thus holds shots better.”
Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 360 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 503 yards.
No. 17, 503 Yards, Par 4: “Cosmetically, you might not notice a lot of changes, but trust me, it plays much differently, especially off the tee. The fairway used to be too wide and swung out to the right and then back. We took the bunker on the left in about 20 yards, and then the one on the end of the fairway we moved in about 4 or 5 yards. That leaves about 16 or 17 yards between bunkers so, naturally, you have to be more precise off the tee. If you get into those bunkers, you’ve got a little work left. A small creek runs in front of the green that has been softened a little bit to create more pin placements. Two bunkers protect the left and right side of the putting surface. But it’s the tee shot that is a bit more challenging.”
The four Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 7, No. 11, & No. 15. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 5, 547 Yards, Par 5: “The fifth hole is actually shorter than before. After moving the tee down and to the left, we knocked down the hill on the right for better visibility off the tee. The creek still splits the hole, forcing a decision off the tee. I would say that 95 percent of the players—maybe even more—will hit the ball down the fairway on the left side, probably with a 3-wood. There will be the occasional player who will try to take it over the water, leaving himself with a short iron into the green. Have at it! It is there for the taking if you want it, but the penalty is severe. The green, which has been moved back 30 yards and to the left, is a bit smaller and narrower and is protected by a bunker front left and two little ones on the right. The more aggressive you get, the tougher the third shot. If you lay it back for a wedge third shot, you are looking right up the green. If you try to get a little more aggressive and get up closer to the green, it could be good, but if you go long, the pitch is over a bunker to a green running towards the water.”
No. 11, 588 Yards, Par 5: “Players face the same tee shot, with the creek on the left and bunker on the right. If you fit a driver between the two and hit it long, you can get home in two. If you want to play it as a three-shot par 5, the players might go hybrid, iron, and wedge into the green. The green was moved to the left to avoid the trees on the right. Before the renovation, the trees would hang out there, and players would sometimes have to slice a shot into the green, which isn’t the play that should be required. The green is more of a bowl, meaning if you miss it long or to the right, the chip is a little more severe coming down the hill into the green. Hit the green in two, and there are a lot more opportunities for eagles here.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x4)
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Memorial Tournament. Each of the world’s top-five players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+600), finished tied for 3rd last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has now finished inside the top 5 in each of his last three events. Scheffler will look for his third win of the season this week at Muirfield Village where he has finished 3rd and tied for 22nd in his two prior appearances here.
Jon Rahm (+700) struggled in his last start on Tour finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship. Despite that poor showing, Rahm still has the most wins on the PGA Tour this year with four. He’ll make his fifth appearance at Muirfield Village this week where he won back in 2020. In 2021, he was leading this event by six strokes heading into Sunday but was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19.
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) has not won on Tour this year despite ten top-20 finishes in thirteen starts. However, he does have some great course history at Muirfield Village winning back in 2021 & 2019. In his most recent start here (2022), he finished tied for 3rd.
Rory McIlroy (+1200) tied for seventh in his last start on Tour (PGA Championship). He has only one win this season which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina. McIlroy will make his twelfth appearance at Muirfield Village this week. He has yet to win here with his best finishing coming back in 2016 (T4).
Xander Schauffele (+1400) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at Muirfield Village. Schauffele has been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 5 in three of his last four starts on Tour.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Billy Horschel (’22), Patrick Cantlay (’21, ’19), Jon Rahm (’20), Jason Dufner (’17), William McGirt (’16), David Lingmerth (’15), Hideki Matsuyama (’14), Matt Kuchar (’13), Justin Rose (’10)
Notable Withdraws:
Maverick McNealy (Undisclosed), Taylor Moore (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Patrick Cantlay: T35/ 4/ 1/ T32/ 1/ T3
Xander Schauffele: MC/ T14/ T13/ T11/ T18
Scottie Scheffler: T22/ T3
Jon Rahm: MC/ 1/ WD/ T10
Sahith Theegala: T32/ T5
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Miami is on the verge of the biggest collapse in NBA playoff history, or are they? Well according to social media, beat writers and apparently ESPN knew, this series is over folks. But as Lee Corso says “not so fast!” Where have we seen this story before? The Heat are done, they have given up, stick a fork in them. Weren’t they 2 minutes away from elimination in the play-in game vs Chicago? They can’t beat the Bucks. I believe most people had Milwaukee playing the first week of June, but they got by the Knicks and now surely they can’t go into Boston and win, can they? They do! As 8.5 and 10 point dogs at the TD Garden. Which segways into my next statement. Just in the playoffs alone they have won as 9, 2, 7.5, 13, 4, 8.5, 10 and 4 point underdogs! Safe to say they have done this before, and counting them out is just what they want. Like I said when we backed them when they were 7.5 point dog out-right winners in Milwaukee, they have been here before. They were less than a minute away from a finals appearance this time last year, they know what needs to be done to win this ONE game.
Now how in the hell are they going to beat Boston, in Boston nonetheless? It starts with game changer Jimmy Buckets, these guys rise off his intensity and ability to control the game. He comes off a 5/21 performance, and the game before where he only took 10 shots. but in games 1 and 2, he averaged 31 points and was 12/25 respectively in each contest. I’m expecting a Jordan-like performance from him, as he thrives in these situations. He will need his help from his wings to continue, as they’re shooting over 40% from downtown in this series, a category this team excels in when they win. As this will most definitely be a close game late, I love how Miami has a 4-5% edge at the free throw line in this series. It sounds minute, but could be the difference in the final minutes.
As far as the Celtics go, it might be a weird spot to use this term but I think they peaked too early. I know it’s a 7 game series and obviously they have lost 3 of them, so how could they have peaked? In games 4 and 5 they ‘threw’ a perfect game in every category you would like to apply that too. Game 6 not so much, I don’t need to tell you how lucky they were to get out of South Beach with a victory. If they play that way again, unfortunately for them they won’t be playing a 76ers squad who literally and physically never left the locker room in the 2nd half, they will be in TROUBLE.
Marcus Smart is off back to back games with 20 plus points which bodes well for Miami, because A, we can expect some regression and B, his +/- in this series has been abysmal. Old man Horford has given it his all in this series specifically after Butler pissed him off at the end of game 3. Chasing down loose balls and diving all over the court, but I would not expect the same intensity to continue. As far as Jaylen Brown goes, yes he’s PLAYED in every game but Miami has done a great job limiting him and not letting him take over at any point during this series. Boston continues to jack up the 3, averaging 40 attempts per game, while only making 31%. With this many missed attempts and Miami’s ability to force crucial turnovers, Miami will be able to dictate how this game goes and not let Boston go one of their ‘Celtic’ runs.
Opposed to Miami, Boston has lost just in the postseason alone as 4.5, 10, 8.5, 8, 1, 10.5, 14 and 5 point favorites. This game screams a Boston letdown and watching Coach Mazzulla continue to make mistakes on the sidelines. If you’re backing the Heat with me, don’t worry Doc Rivers will not be in attendance. At least I hope not haha. Miami not only just covers in game 7, I believe they will win this game out-right! This will go down as my biggest play of the year for me personally. Let’s go Jimmy Buckets and the Miami Heat!
Heat +8 (Circa -109) risking 3.27u to win 3u
Heat ML +265 (BetRivers) risking 1u to win 2.65u
Prop: Butler over 28.5 points (PointsBet +100) risking 0.7u to win 0.7u
Which pitcher is worse? Brandon Williams for the Reds who has a 3.6 ERA and a 5.89 FIP, or Jameson Taillon for the Cubs who has an 8.1 ERA and a 4.98 FIP? Probably the latter, but both of these teams should give up some runs today. The Cubs hitting has been solid throughout the year ranking seventh in wRC+, with the Reds are a close to average .711 in OPS. The Cubs rank 4th in runs per game at 5.48 while the Reds rank 15th at 4.54. Both Bullpens are pretty average. I think this game goes over the total.
NFC South: If you thought that the NFC North was like a game of Yahtzee, it might not be much different down South. More big changes come as every single team in this division, at least from mid-season last year, has a new starting quarterback. I do not remember the last time that this has happened. The good news for the division is that they get to play the NFC North, who is one of the weaker divisions in football. The other good news is that this division gets to play the AFC South, who IS the worst division in football. I mean, what a nice reward for sucking last year! Now they are gifted to play the two easiest divisions in football! Actually, being that you play yourselves twice, you get to play the four easiest divisions in football as well as three at large games! If two or more teams make the playoffs from the NFC South this year, it will be a crying shame. Let’s dig in.
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 Juiced Towards the Under -125
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.71
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs @ New England, @ New York Giants, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key Losses: DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, DT Shy Tuttle, DE Marcus Davenport, QB Andy Dalton, S Justin Evans, CB Bradley Roby, WR Jarven Landry, RB Mark Engram, SS Daniel Sorensen
Key additions: QB Derek Carr, DE Nathan Shepard, DT Khalen Saunders, RB Jamaal Williams, S Johnathan Abram
Key draft picks: DL Bryan Bresee, Edge Isaiah Foskey, RB Kendre Miller, OT Nick Saldiveri, QB Jake Haener
Summary: Out of all of the preseason bets that should have cashed, the Saints to win the division was the main one. Choking that game vs the Buccaneers away made me want to puke, and it also reminded me of my long life as a Chicago Cubs fan. The Pythagorean win total of 8.71 was the highest in the NFC South showing the huge underachievement last year. Here is the good news. This schedule might be the easiest that I have ever seen in football. The highest power rated team that the Saints play for 2023 is the Jacksonville Jaguars with the Minnesota Vikings in second! I mean, I have never seen a team have it this easy. In saying that, I have some issues with this Sean Payton-less team. First of all, they did shed some big salary, but also lost a lot of key guys to their defense. The Saints also could have helped fix their offensive line, but decided to instead try and replace David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport. The Derek Carr acquisition is the elephant in the room. Baby you could drive my Carr should be an upgrade of Andy Dalton, but who knows how quickly he can grasp the offense. I also think that this team drafted pretty well and there could possibly be a Jake Haener siting at some point during the season. The season win total on this team shot up like a rocket ship, and it is now close to my number so no play, but I will also say that I would not be surprised if this team doesn’t live up to expectations. Just like they didn’t last year.
My number is: 9.36 wins
Action: No Play
New Orleans Power Rating: 1
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.14
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Washington, @ New York Jets, @ Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward, LB Rashaan Evens, S Erik Harris
Key additions: S Jessie Bates, CB Jeff Okudah, DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, QB Taylor Heinicke, DE Calais Campbell, CB Mike Hughes, OLB Bud Dupree, CB Trey Flowers, WR Mack Hollins and a ton of other dudes.
Key draft picks: RB Bijan Robinson, T Matthew Bergeron, Edge Zach Harrison.
Summary: Gonna start out by saying that this Falcons team has really underachieved last year. This team was very good with the lead being that their run game was so good ranking second in the league, but unfortunately, the dirty birds now rank 25th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 31st at passing the ball. THIS IS WHY I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE BIJAN ROBINSON DRAFT PICK! Now just because they did some weird stuff in the draft doesn’t mean that this team didn’t do well in free agency. There are literally tons of talent coming into the Falcons this season. We should see an almost completely revamped secondary as well as some new guys on the defensive line in David Onyemata and Calais Campbell. What this team seemed to ignore some was at the inside, and outside linebacker positions. The biggest change for the dirty birds is the emergence of Desmond Ritter who actually finished the season pretty strong beating the Cardinals and the Buccaneers. I think that the real question is if there is an early drop off here between him and Mariota. I really think not, and if the fumble luck turns their way, I could see a successful season here with the second easiest schedule in the NFL.
My Number: 9.07
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -1.5
Action: Find an 8 and take it over and take them to make the playoffs at +180
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.26
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Philadelphia, @ Buffalo, @ San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Tom Brady, OC Byron Leftwich, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, S Keanu Neal, CB Sean Bunting, LT Donavan Smith, S Mike Edwards, QB Blain Gabbert, T Josh Wells
Key additions: OC Dave Canales, QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, S Ryan Neal
Key draft picks: DT Calijay Kancey, T Cody Mauch, and a bunch of prayers
Summary: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Or something like that. Needless to say, this Buccaneers team lost a ton with Tom Brady retiring, but let’s face it, Tom last year looked a little bit more like Joe Montana on the Chiefs rather than the GOAT of the national football league. For a minute there, I thought that maybe the Kyle Trask era was about to start, and then all of a sudden, they started feeling dangerous and decided to pick up Baker Mayfield. The confusing thing to me is that they haven’t traded off some of their leftover salary waste from their super bowl season? I mean, do you really think that this team will contend? There should be a fire sale on guys like Mike Evans, Shaq Barrett, Chris Godwin and Devin White. Lots of age right there and it just feels to me that maybe Tampa takes an early shot at being good. After they realize that they are not good, they start tanking to potentially win the lottery for a good quarterback like Caleb Williams. No chance that I can take the over here, but it is also very had to take an under with any teams in a division playing the NFC North and the AFC South. Gonna pass for now.
My Number is: 5.63
Tampa Bay Power Rating: -3.25
Action: Strong lean under
4. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Easy – @Seattle, @Miami, vs Dallas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Steve Wilks, WR DJ Moore, QB Sam Darnold, QB Phillip Walker, ILB Corey Littleton, RB D’Onta Foreman
Key additions: Coach Frank Reich, WR Adam Thielen, RB Miles Sanders, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, DT Shy Tuttle, C Bradley Bozeman, QB Andy Dalton, WR DJ Chark,
Key draft picks: QB Bryce Young, WR Jonathan Mingo and a bunch of hope
Summary: Lots of changes for Carolina this year and we can start right away with their new head coach. I remember being excited for the Colts when they hired coach Frank Reich, but after a few years, I have soured on him some. Now that Carolina has scooped Reich up, and let Steve Wilks go, I feel a little bit confused. Wilks revived this team last year, and for a minute, I thought they might win the division. What makes Frank the better choice here? Don’t get me wrong, Reich had his share of bad injury luck in Indianapolis over his tenure, but now he has to start from square one with a brand new quarterback to try and revive this team. Carolina did well in free agency this year grabbing some savvy veterans in WR Adam Thielen and S Vonn Bell, but I still think that their offensive line could use some work. Also, I am very concerned for the size of their new quarterback Bryce Young in the first year of this system. Carolina gave up a lot to get into the number 1 draft position including their star WR in DJ Moore. Their is no go to player now on this team that a young quarterback might need to bail him out of rough situations. Getting that final win last year vs the Saints actually hurt this team, and now their at large is much more difficult in facing Dallas, Miami and Seattle. The Panthers will start out as a fade team to me, and let’s see how long it takes for them to gel.
For a team that is 10-41, giving them a 32.1% chance to win this game feels like highway robbery (the implied odds of +212) as they have only won less than 20% of their own games, but let’s face it. Nobody is taking the Athletics here. JP Sears takes the helm for this bad Athletics team with a 4.99 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. He is facing Logan Gilbert who has been pitching well with a 2.68 FIP. 10.9 K/9 looks pretty good to me, but due to bad luck, his ERA is up to 3.81. I think Seattle certainly wins this game, but I do not love laying large juice in baseball myself so I am going to attack this a different way. Seattle has been an averaging hitting team thus far, but they have improved over the past few weeks and Oakland is just that team that could make them heat up. The Athletics give up a MASSIVE 7.14 runs per game thus far, and I do not know how anyone could take an under on this team with such a bad bullpen ranking dead last in FIP and ERA. Gonna shorten my juice to -110 and take the Mariners team total over.
