The 19-24 Cubs have to win at some point right? This team has a losing record for a few reasons. First of all, they have been pretty bad in the clutch led by poor manager decisions from David Ross. Lots of 1 – 2 run losses here. If you look at the Cubs run differential, they rank 8th at +22. This tells me that they are much better than what their record actually is showing. The Phillies are -29 in run differential ranking 23rd. Marcus Stroman takes the helm for the Cubbies today, and he still has good numbers at 3.24 ERA, 3.66 FIP even after a few recent blow ups. Ranger Suarez is starting for the Phillies who has only four innings under his belt so far this year. Last year he was pretty average at 3.65 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. I think the Cubbies get it right today.
This will be the first of many reviews of sportsbooks. Now i should preface this, BettorEdge is not a book, it is an exchange. There are many common terms, peer to peer and betting exchange are the ones most commonly associated with these. Its similar to a book and therefore I am lumping it in the reviews.
It will graded in comparison to other exchanges, not directly against a book. I’ll explain a bit later why they shouldn’t be directly compared.
What is an Exchange?
If you are unfamiliar with exchanges, I’ll break it down. An exchange is when two players match their bets. Player A wants the New England Patriots at -3.5 while Player B wants the Jets at +3.5. Those bets are matched and going head to head. You are competing for each others money, not the user vs the book.
What is BettorEdge? To Quote from their website:
“Where bettors compete against each other with no fees.
BettorEdge works differently than traditional sports betting, instead of betting against a sportsbook or “The House”, we match you up with other BettorEdge users.”
The main advantage with this is, you are playing someone else directly rather than a book. Books generally charge a 10% fee/juice/VIG to place a bet, i.e. -110. With BettorEdge, they charge no fee at all. Meaning you are getting the true odds.
All of BettorEdge’s lines are pulled from the same places the sportsbooks pull theirs.
What is the advantage to BettorEdge?
The answer is simple, NO FEES. Why do no fees matter? To be profitable on -110 odds, you have to a 52.38 win % (same unit size). This would be the bare minimum. With BettorEdge, you have to have 50.01%.
They are also not regulated like a sportsbook so BettorEdge is in more states, because of this, 45 states to be exact.
The user can also change the line from presented odds. Meaning if in the above scenario, Player A wanted Patriots -6.5 instead of -3.5, they could raise the odds and put that line into the marketplace. Similar to an alternate line at a book, but some books restrict certain numbers and the user can not create the line/odds. The user is restricted to only what is offered at a book.
Another feature is, a user can tail or fade a user directly inside the platform.
BettorEdge also offers “EdgeCoins”. These are free coins when you sign up. for new bettors, these are no risk tokens with no value to help you learn how to bet. They are a great way to understand how BettorEdge works before fully diving in.
What is the disadvantage to BettorEdge?
This is a little bit of a loaded question.
Betting exchanges as a mass introduction to the public are fairly new. Meaning there are less users. You need a user to take the other side of your bet.
Per my source, 80-90% of bets are filled. Per my experience, I have never had a bet unfilled. Why would some of the best go unfilled? Because it is an exchange. Like I mentioned before, users can manipulate the line. If there are multiple outlandish lines (which yes, users think they are slick and try and get +100 odds on -15 in NFL games) those will go unfilled. Smaller sports or more unique/exotic bets will go unfilled.
Another note on percent of bets filled, there’s no differentiation in whether the bet goes unfilled or is canceled by the user. So if a bet is placed and immediately canceled, it is considered, unfilled(apart of that 10-20% unfilled rate)
Exchanges at this point, just cant offer every line logistically. The amount of people betting on “smaller” sports just creates too much back end work for exchanges to create. For example, Alabama baseball was recently in the news for betting scandals. Alabama had one total bet and thats ultimately what caused the books to find out whats going on. Large books taking one bet just isn’t viable for exchanges to create lines for.
With the limited lines, you might miss out on certain props, i.e. Jameis Winston over/under sacks. If that is what you are looking for exchanges aren’t for you and most books aren’t either.
Why use BettorEdge over a Sportsbook? Let’s make this very clear here. As of now, I wouldn’t personally take one over the other. Especially if you are a niche sports bettor as I mentioned college baseball example previously.
You should be using an exchange AND books when you are line shopping. Both should be tools in a profitable bettors belt. If you are able to get the best line at an exchange, this is your best option. If you are looking for a very niche market, this is probably not for you, and that is OKAY.
What lines do they offer? BettorEdge offers most of the popular lines, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, Golf, UFC, EPL, UCL, Tennis, as well as a few others depending on season of the sport.
BettorEdge does have some exotic and prop plays. Superstar Points, Yards, etc. Other bets like win totals preseason.
In each event, you can see how many bet orders are available to take.
What makes BettorEdge different from other exchanges?
First and foremost, NO FEES, they are the only exchange as of right now (that I am aware of, that offers this). BettorEdge also offers more of a community feel. Inside the platform, a user can, create a post, tweet it, follow other users, be listed on the leaderboards for various performances, subscribe to podcast, enter competitions, and more.
Is there an App?
As of today, no. Currently on the list of things being built out. However, you can make a webpage app. Meaning your phone will create what looks like an app and take you directly to that page when you open it. Forward facing, it’s really no different for the user.
The webpage app looks great. Very easy to navigate. Super straight forward.
This is directly from my iPhone web app. It looks just like a sportsbook. Is it safe?
Yes, BettorEdge uses the highest safety measures. I have deposited and withdrawn from BettorEdge. To add your bank information, there is multiple safety steps you must take. Bet matching is done on the backend and you’ll never know who you are playing against (outside of the competitions).
Rating – 1= This book should fold immediately and never attempt to offer lines again
10= nothing needs changed, this is the only book anyone needs 8/10
There is some things I LOVE about BettorEdge. Not paying a fee to bet is worth a 6 alone. The look and feel is easy. The community feel, the ability to have transparency with other users and the competitive balance inside, is something no book will be able to offer. Ever.
Yes, I wish there were more line options. Yes, there will be more line options as more users join. Currently BettorEdge sits around 14,000 users. This is the biggest knock right now. More Users = More Lines
Thats really the biggest drawback. I took off 0.5 from the rating just because BettorEdge is not in an app, YET. It will be and as soon as it does, 8.5/10 will be locked in.
BettorEdge is my go to option while line shopping. If the line I am looking for is not there, then I will move on. I personally don’t prop shop here, personal preference and I’m aware most of what i’m looking for will be on niche books.
Hopefully, you will join me over at BettorEdge. BOL.
New users can sign up with my code and receive $20 on sign up: edge
We have a HUGE show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting and Eric Rocco @TrustRocco from TheOddsBreakers come on to talk about leg two in the triple crown! First, Kiev previews the NFC North and how it shapes up coming into the 2023 season. Next, Eric and Patrick come on to discuss the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes! What will the weather be like? Who are the favorites? How are the guys planning to attack this race? We get into a lot of discussion and have a few horses we are keying in on, as well as a few that we are tossing off of our ticket. Finally, Kiev gets into some UFC on ESPN Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill with some free plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds23” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
We only have one game taking place tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Matchups:
Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Series: Eastern Conference Finals – Game 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
+120
+120
+1.5 (-210)
o5.5 (-125)
Carolina Hurricanes
-140
-140
-1.5 (+180)
u5.5 (+105)
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Carolina Hurricanes (-140) – DraftKings [2 Units]
Carolina has been one of the best home teams as of late, especially in the postseason. While this team has suffered a bunch of key injuries heading into the playoffs, they have found ways to win. They’ve also gotten some depth production specifically from Jordan Martinook who was fantastic in their last series. Freddy Anderson has also been great for them going 5-0 with a 1.80 GAA and a .931 save percentage. He currently ranks 3rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +3.9. While Florida is continuing to embrace their underdog role, Carolina has the defensive capability to shut them down offensively. Despite the great story that Florida has going for them, I think the Hurricanes handle them at home and go on to win Game 1.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for May 18th/ 19th along with the Conference Finals.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – March 18th, 2023
Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
NHL Preview/ Picks – March 19th, 2023
Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights
NHL Conference Finals Playoff Preview
Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
The season’s second Major is here, the PGA Championship. This will be the 105th edition of this event and the fourth time that it’s been held at Oak Hill Country Club. The last time Oak Hill hosted a Major tournament was the 2013 PGA Championship. However, the course has undergone a major renovation since then which I’ll get to later on in this article. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Jordan Spieth is looking to finally complete the career Grand Slam. This will be his seventh attempt to win the PGA Championship. His best finish at this event was back in 2015 when he finished 2nd at Whistling Straits. Spieth did compete in the PGA Championship back in 2013 when it was held at Oak Hill but he missed the cut.
Despite hailing from Northern Ireland, Rory McIlroy has a connection to this host venue. His wife is from Rochester, New York and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill. He hasn’t won a Major Championship since 2014 when he captured both the PGA and Open Championship. In addition to that 2014 victory, he won the PGA Championship once before in 2012.
World No. 1, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships (2021 U.S. Open). If he’s able to win the PGA Championship, he’ll only have one more event to win to complete the career Grand Slam (The Open Championship).
There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Xander Schauffele (World No. 5) has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Rounding out the top-10 in the OWGR is Max Homa who is also looking for his first Major Championship.
Lastly, the LIV Tour players have been allowed to play in this year’s event. Headlining the list of eighteen players from the LIV Tour includes Cameron Smith, defending Open Championship winner, Dustin Johnson, 2020 Masters Champion, and Phil Mickelson, three-time Masters champion. At the first Major tournament of the year, the Masters, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finished T2. Brooks has some history at this event winning the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships.
Oak Hill Country Club was founded in 1901 with just nine holes laid out. The 85-acre property was nestled next to the Genesee River with the clubhouse being a converted farmhouse. Nine years later, the Oak Hill CC added an additional nine holes and built a new clubhouse as well. In 1921, the University of Rochester proposed a land swap that the Club hesitantly accepted relocating Oak Hill to a 355-acre plot of farmland in the town of Pittsford. With the newly acquired land and the University adding $360,000 to the deal, the Club now had the acreage and capital to expand. They brought in world-famous golf architect, Donald Ross to design two 18-hole golf courses, the East and the West Course.
The East Course has hosted all of the Major tournaments that have been held at Oak Hill Country Club. It’s also the only course in the United States that has hosted all six rotating men’s golf championships. In 1956, the course hosted its first Major, the U.S. Open. Following that, Oak Hill would go on to host the 1968 U.S. Open, the 1980 PGA Championship, the 1989 U.S. Open, and the 2003 PGA Championship. Outside of those events, the course has played host to the U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur. The most recent Major held at Oak Hill was the 2013 PGA Championship when Jason Duffer beat Jim Furyk by two strokes.
Since hosting the 2013 PGA Championship, Oak Hill underwent a major renovation. In 2019, they replaced old bentgrass/Poa Annua greens with pure bentgrass, restoring the shapes and contours of greens. In addition to that, numerous trees were removed along with several bunkers. New tees were also added increasing the length of the East Course.
The PGA Championship is one of the four Major Championships conducted by the Professional Golfers’ Association of America. The first PGA Championship was held in 1916 at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York. Until 1957, the format of the tournament was Match-Play. Starting in 1958, the format was changed to the standard 72-hole format of 18 holes per day for four days, Thursday to Sunday.
In 2017, the PGA Championship was moved to May making it the second Major of the season instead of the fourth.
The winner will receive the Wanamaker Trophy, named after businessman and golfer Rodman Wanamaker. He was one of the major factors in the formation of the Professional Golfers’ Association of America (PGA) and suggested the tournament first be held.
Most Tournament Wins (PGA Championship):
5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980) & Walter Hagen (1921, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927)
72-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
270, Jason Dufner (2013)
18-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
63, Jason Dufner (2nd round, 2013 at Oak Hill)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Oak Hill Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2013, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 4, No. 12, No. 13, & No. 14. Given the most recent renovation, all of those four holes, besides No. 14, have increased in distance. At the 2013 PGA Championship, we saw accuracy prevail over distance off the tee. However, I think it will be the opposite this year as they’ve widened the fairways and as I’ve mentioned before, added 231 yards to the course without changing the Par.
In terms of length, Oak Hill Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,394 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 5th of 46, with the average fairway width being 27.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,500 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 78 bunkers which ranks 22nd out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 155 yards and 230 yards. At the 2013 PGA Championship, No. 6 was a Par 3 and with the most recent renovation, No. 5 and No. 6 have been swapped. At that event, none of the four Par 3’s played under Par.
No. 5 ‘Little Poison’, 180 yards, Par 3: A two-tiered green surrounded by four deep bunkers requires an accurate tee shot. A shot that misses long will make it very challenging to save par due to the thick rough. When planning an approach, pay attention to the hole location to ensure the best chances for a scoring opportunity.
No. 11 ‘Creekside’, 245 yards, Par 3: This long par-3 is surrounded by three greenside bunkers—one short-left and two long-right—with Allen’s Creek protecting the front right. The large green offers a variety of hole locations, calling for players to be precise, which can be a tall order from such a long distance.
Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 ‘Bunker Hill’ is the shortest listed at 320 yards with the longest being No. 6 ‘Double Trouble’, playing 503 yards.
No. 1 ‘The Challenge’, 460 yards, Par 4: Ben Hogan once called this hole the toughest opening test in championship golf. The tee shot is from an elevated tee to a slight dogleg left. A great drive can take advantage of a fairway downslope at 290 yards. Allen’s Creek runs across the fairway hole at the 360-yard mark. The danger off the tee is out of bounds
to the right and three bunkers on the left. The green is well guarded by grass hummocks and a greenside bunker short right.
No. 18 ‘Goin’ Home’, 497 yards, Par 4: As beautiful as it is demanding, the final hole boasts a fairway only 20 yards wide at the 300-yard mark, with three deep bunkers on the right and trees on both sides. The green slopes severely from back to front and sits between three bunkers right and one left, making for a very challenging finish.
The two Par 5’s are No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’ playing 615 yards & No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’ playing 623 yards. In 2013, No. 4 was listed at 570 yards, and No. 13 was listed at 598 yards. Both of these holes have had some significant yardage added to them with the recent renovation. Back in 2013, both of these holes did have a scoring average under par. Given the additional yardage added, they are some of the longer Par 5’s players will face on Tour this season.
No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’, 615 yards, Par 5: The only par-5 on the front requires a very precise tee shot to set up a chance of reaching the green in two. Bunkers and out-of-bounds guard the right side while trees run along the left. The green slopes from back to front with deep bunkers short-left and short-right.
No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’, 623 yards, Par 5: Oak Hill’s most notable par-5 runs uphill toward the clubhouse. Allen’s Creek crosses the fairway at the 325-yard mark, which will force most players to lay up and face a long uphill approach. Two fairway bunkers guard the right side of the fairway 125 yards from a green that sits in a hollow, providing a beautiful amphitheater setting.
Hole
Name
Yards
Par
Hole
Name
Yards
Par
1
The Challenge
460
4
10
Council Grove
430
4
2
Breather
405
4
11
Creekside
245
3
3
Vista
230
3
12
Leaning Oak
399
4
4
The High & Mighty
615
5
13
Hill of Fame
623
5
5
Little Poison
180
3
14
Bunker Hill
320
4
6
Double Trouble
503
4
15
The Plateau
155
3
7
Creek’s Elbow
461
4
16
Straight Away
458
4
8
Wayside
429
4
17
Twin Tees
502
4
9
Needles Eyes
482
4
18
Goin’ Home
497
4
Out
3,765
35
In
3,629
35
Total
7,394
70
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 625 Yards (x2)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Major History
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s PGA Championship. Ninety-nine of the world’s top 100-ranked players are in the field this week. This is also the second event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+700) has already won two elevated events this season including the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. After finishing T45 in his first start of the 2023 Season, Scheffler has yet to finish worse than T12! In his last three events, he’s been struggling on the green losing strokes putting in each of those tournaments. In terms of the PGA Championship, he missed the cut last year at Southern Hills but finished T8 at Kiawah Island and T4 at TPC Harding Park.
Jon Rahm (+800) has the most victories on the PGA Tour this season with 4. His most recent win was at the Masters Tournament. Since that victory, he finished T15 at the RBC Heritage and 2nd at the Mexico Open. Given the thick rough this week, his play around the green is a bit of concern as he’s lost strokes in that category in each of his last two starts. He has never won a PGA Championship with his best finish coming back in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club where he finished T4. Last year, he struggled at Southern Hills finishing T48.
Rory McIlroy (+1400) won two PGA Championships already in 2014 at Valhalla Golf Club and in 2012 at Kiawah Island. He started the season off strong winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina but has yet to win another event since then. However, he did finish T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. At the Masters, Rory struggled missing the cut. He did play in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill finishing T8.
Xander Schauffele (+1600) has been trending towards a win lately finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts. While Xander has yet to win a Major, his style of play should fit Oak Hill well. His ball striking has been phenomenal this year gaining strokes at every event besides one. Xander’s best finish at the PGA Championship was back in 2020 at TPC Harding Park (T10).
Patrick Cantlay (+1600) has only missed the cut once this season which was at the WM Phoenix Open. Following that event, Cantlay has only finished outside the top 20 once in his eight starts since then. In his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has his worst ball-striking performance of the year losing -0.44 strokes on approach. His best finish in a PGA Championship was in 2019 at Bethpage Black (T3).
Previous Winners in the Field:
Justin Thomas (’22. ’17), Phil Mickelson (’21, ’05), Collin Morikawa (’20), Brooks Koepka (’19, ’18), Jimmy Walker (’16), Jason Day (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14, ’12), Keegan Bradley (’11), Pádraig Harrington (’08)
LIV Players in the field (18):
Abraham Ancer, Dean Burmester, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Sihwan Kim, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Brendan Steele, and Harold Varner III.
Notable Withdraws:
Jason Dufner, Martin Kaymer, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, John Daly
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]
Adam Scott: T5
Jason Day: T8
Rory McIlroy: T8
Dustin Johnson: T8
Zach Johnson: T8
Hideki Matsuyama: T19
Rickie Fowler: T19
Keegan Bradley: T19
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]
Jordan Spieth: MC
Russell Henley: MC
Alexander Noren: MC
Brooks Koepka: 70
Phil Mickelson: 72
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Justin Thomas (-6) – Southern Hills Country Club
Price: 16-1
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) – Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course)
Price: 250-1
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) – TPC Harding Park
Price: 35-1
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) – Bethpage Black Course
Price: 11-1
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Bellerive Country Club
Price: 20-1
2013: Jason Dufner (-10) – Oak Hill Country Club
Price: 40-1
Picks (Outrights):
Xander Schauffele (+1900) – PointsBet
Risk 0.43 to win 8.17 Units
Brooks Koepka (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.24 Units
Tony Finau (+2900) – FanDuel
Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units
Tony Finau won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago outdueling World No.1 Jon Rahm down the stretch. With that victory, he has now won twice on the PGA Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T23 gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. One key factor for Finau this week will be his play Around the Green, a category in which he ranks 1st in strokes gained on the Tour. The rough this week is extremely penal and his ability to get up and down in those tricky areas should give him an advantage. His play has been trending in the right direction and given his newfound confidence, I think he has a shot to compete this week.
Rickie Fowler (+7500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units
Rickie Fowler is one of the few players in the field to have played in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill Country Club. He played well in that event finishing T19. This season, Rickie has returned to form playing some great golf. His ball striking has been great, gaining strokes on approach in every event he’s played in this season. In his last five starts, he’s finished inside the top 20 each time and has been trending in the right direction. His length off the tee should allow him to compete this week and when you add his iron play into the mix, I think he has a shot. While he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2019, this could be his coming out party. At 75-1 on FanDuel, it’s a great price when other books have him as low as 50-1.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Justin Thomas (+120) – BetRivers/ Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Justin Thomas will look to defend his title this year at Oak Hill. Last year at Southern Hills, he had an improbable victory. While he hasn’t been great this season he does have nine top-25 finishes. After he missed the cut at the Masters, he’s rebounded well finishing T25 and T14 in his last two starts. He’s one of the more elite ball strikers on Tour and should be in the mix.
Dustin Johnson (+135) – BetRivers
Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units
Dustin Johnson struggled at Augusta earlier this year finishing T48th, losing strokes putting and around the green. However, he did win his most recent start on the LIV Tour which has hopefully helped his confidence coming into Oak Hill. He did play at the 2013 PGA Championship held here and finished T8. His distance off the tee always gives him an advantage and given his recent play following the Masters, I think he has a shot to compete.
Cameron Young (+140) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Tyrrell Hatton (+160) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Tyrrell Hatton comes into the PGA Championship in great form, finishing T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks well in several key categories this week including SG: Tee-to-Green (6th), SG: Off-the-Tee (11th), and SG: Approach (11th). Hatton has had issues with his short game this year but has gained strokes Around-the-Green in each of his last three events. He’s also played well in the last few Major Championships and given the state of his current game, he should have some success this week.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Tommy Fleetwood is coming off two strong performances finishing T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T15 at the RBC Heritage. His play has been trending in the right direction, specifically his iron play. He still has the distance off the tee to compete at a course like Oak Hill. Given his recent play and performance at Augusta earlier this year, I think Fleetwood can be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 6.19 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Happy Tuesday y’all! We’re riding a nice hot streak right now with a 30-14 run currently going in MLB. You can find all my plays available here at TheOddsbreakers.com. Also Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you have any questions regarding anything baseball and I’ll always let you know what I’m thinking. Let’s take a look at tonight’s featured game.
My Analysis turns to the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum where the Oakland/Las Vegas Athletics will host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at 9:40 ET. The current lines are sitting at Arizona -153/ Oakland +133 with the Over/Under at 9.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 69 degrees under clear skies with a slight breeze blowing out to right field.
Young Left-Hander Kyle Muller will take the bump for the A’s. He has been battered around so far to start his time in Oakland to the tune of a 7.34 ERA. Out of seven games started so far this season he has allowed less than 4 Earned Runs only twice against Cleveland and Cincinnati. Ohio teams haven’t exactly been piling on the runs this year. Muller has been hurt by a .364 BABIP against, but part of the reason that number is so high is that his hard contact rate is over 43% according to Statcast. The Diamondbacks have a couple of right handed sluggers in Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. that can hammer lefties. The D-Backs as a whole are sporting a .731 OPS against left-handers. Once they chase Muller they’ll get a look at the Athletics bullpen and their 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Only three relievers have a sub 5.00 ERA for the A’s and two of them pitched last night so I think we’ll see the bottom of the bullpen barrel and likely see it early.
Fellow Left-Hander Tommy Henry will start for the Snakes. He has a 4.43 ERA, but a 6.26 xFIP. He’s also striking out only 3.63 batters per nine innings so far. Henry has been decent his last two trips out against the Giants and Nationals holding each of them to 2 Earned Runs over 6+ innings. He is due for regression as outlined above as hitters have a .278 BABIP against him and his HR/FB& is only 5.9% thus far. As bad as Oakland has been they are actually hitting lefties well to the tune of a .750 OPS. A lot of that has to do with Brent Rooker and his breakout so far. He has 5 Home Runs and is sporting a 1.169 OPS against southpaws. Esteury Ruiz, Shea Langeliers, and Ramon Laureano also hit lefties well for Oakland. The Arizona bullpen has been better than advertised, but they are burned out. Kyle Nelson is ready to go, but their top two options Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro have both pitched in 3 of 4 and Castro in back to back. They will be turning elsewhere once this game gets deeper.
Okay, The A’s offense is putrid as they only average 3.74 runs per game however the Snakes are 7th in MLB at 5.10 Runs per game. Earned runs against the A’s are by far the worst at 7.05 (This is crazy). The Diamandbacks are 23rd at 4.50 Earned Runs per game. Oakland is a pitcher’s park, but tonight those pitchers are just plain bad. The balls were juiced across the league last night almost everywhere except Oakland and I think it balances out tonight.
Normally I do not love laying chalk quite this heavy, but this is a situation where the Padres flat out should overpower this bad Royals team. The Padres are getting healthier as of late, and are striving to get back to .500 in their division. Seth Lugo will take the helm today for the Dads boasting a nice 3.18 ERA over 39 innings with a so so FIP of 3.96. On the other side, Brady Singer is pitching for the Royals, and he has some serious control problems this year at a 7.71 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. Neither Bullpen is all that great, but I could certainly see the Padres capitalizing early on Singers struggles. The Royals are a terrible batting team against right handed pitching ranking 28th in the league while the Padres rank 21st with most of those games played without their star player Fernando Tatis. Now that Fernando has been back, he is sitting pretty with an OBP of .350 and and OPS of .868. I am laying the juice here at -201. I would also consider a team total over 4.5 -126.
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Anthony Smith vs Johnny Walker -125
This is gonna be a fun fight between a legitimate contender in Anthony Smith and a firecracker of a fighter Johnny Walker in the light heavyweight division. Anthony smith is a very experienced 34 year old who is 36-17. He usually KO’s or Submits his opponent with 23 total finishes. Johnny Walker is built of the same breed at 6’5 who has finished 19 of his 20 wins inside the distance. Walker was entering contender status back in 2019 until he lost four of his next fiver fights. Three of them was in the first round. The problem with a guy like walker is that he forgets to keep his distance and tends to get popped. Anthony Smith is the more calculated fighter who picks his moments but will use his legs wisely if need. Looking at each fighters strength of schedule, it isn’t even close with Smith’s loss last year to Magomed Ankalaev due to a broken ankle that quietly happened in the first round. His other fights include a common win vs Ryan Spann, wins vs Jimmy Crute, Devin Clark and Volken Oezdemir as well as good losses vs Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksander Rakic and Thiago Santos. Anthony has fought the best in the weight class. Minus Ryan Spann, Johnny doesn’t really have any big wins in this weight class. Walker’s toughest competition was to current Champ Jamahal Hill, and his worst loss over the past 4 years was to Corey Anderson by KO. The big problem with Walker is that he has a glass jaw, and that doesn’t bode well when it comes to fighting a guy of Anthony Smith’s style stature. I think that Smith should be the favorite, yet you can get him as a dog right now at +105. Take the more experience Smith to bounce back in this fight and become a top contender once again in the Light Heavyweight class.
This is going to be a fun one with two strong teams facing off, but why is the Braves a big road favorite here? Simple answer is that Cy Young leading Spencer Strider is at the helm boasting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.81 FIP. 15.08 K/9 looks unreal as well. He is facing the ever so struggling Chris Bassitt who has a rough 4.38 ERA and a shameful 5.33 FIP. Atlanta is the superior team here, and they also have the superior bullpen, but I am not even going to let that factor in. Take the Braves 1st 5 -.5 runs at -110 and you might cash that baby with a goose egg on the other side. Eh?
