Baseball season has arrived. We’re less than 48 hours away from opening pitches of opening day. We’ve looked at all six divisions from a betting perspective and have given you our futures bets and predictions. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
Now, we’ll finish up the season previews with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
The Playoffs
AL Seeding
(1) Toronto (2) Houston (3) Cleveland (4) New York (5) Seattle (6) Los Angeles
NL Seeding
(1) San Diego (2) New York (3) St. Louis (4) Atlanta (5) Los Angeles (6) San Francisco
AL Wild Card
Cleveland Vs LA Angels – The Angels have too much in this short Series and win 2-1
New York Vs Seattle – Give me the up and coming Mariners 2-1
NL Wild Card
St. Louis vs San Francisco – SF overachieved to get here and the Cards lineup is too much. The Cards win 2-0
Atlanta vs LA Dodgers – The Freddie Freeman revenge tour wins here 2-1
AL Divisional
Houston vs LA Angels – Trout and Ohtani carry the Angels in a classic 3-2
Toronto vs Seattle – The Blue Jays get revenge from the 2022 playoffs 3-1
NL Divisional
NY Mets vs St. Louis – Scherzer and Verlander get the Mets past the Cards 3-2
San Diego vs LA Dodgers – The Padres finally get past the Dodgers 3-2
ALCS
Toronto vs LA Angels – The Blue Jays find a way thanks to a better bullpen 4-3
NLCS
San Diego vs NY Mets – The Padres get it done as Verlander and Scherzer’s age finally catches up to them 4-3
World Series
Toronto vs San Diego – The number of teams to have never won a world series stays at 6 as the Blue Jays take the title north of the border 4-2
MLB Futures & Post-Season
There’s really no value on the League winner odds in the NL unless you want to play St. Louis which I don’t hate at +825 as they should be in the playoffs.
On the AL side I’ve got the Blue Jays at +525 and the Angels at +1600.
For the World Series I have the Padres at +750, Blue Jays at +1000 and Angels at +3500
All these bets are .25 Units.
Awards
AL ROY – Josh Jung +1800
NL ROY – Jordan Walker +210 – Not much value here, but he’s the favorite for a reason
AL MVP – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1000
NL MVP – Pete Alonso +1500
AL Cy Young – Dylan Cease +1000
NL Cy Young – Corbin Burnes +750
Player Props
NL Top Prop – Clayton Kershaw Over 10.5 Wins
AL Top Prop – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 102.5 RBIs
That’s it folks! Good Luck betting this MLB season! Hit me up here at TheOddsbreakers.com or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Sam Burns defeated Cameron Young to win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event. With that victory, Burns captured his fifth career PGA Tour victory. Cameron Young has now finished second in seven events in the past two seasons failing to record a single Tour win during that span. Scottie and Rory battled it out in the consolation match with Rory ending up victorious winning 2&1.
Matt Wallace also earned his maiden PGA Tour title at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He’s now fully exempt on Tour through 2025.
The PGA stays in Texas for one last event before heading to Augusta, Georgia. The winner of the Valero Texas Open will be the final person to stamp his ticket to the Masters. Last year, we saw J.J. Spaun win his first PGA Tour event. It’s been an event that longshots have dominated as of late with three of the last four winners having odds of 200-1. Jordan Speith was the only outlier during that span winning in 2021 but will skip the Valero Texas Open this year in preparation for the Masters. While it’s not the most glamorous event and certainly gets overshadowed, it is another week for potential winners so let’s break down Valero Texas Open.
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 87 F, 11 mp/h SE, 63% Humidity, 13% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Valero Texas Open, also known as the Texas Open dates back over 100 years, founded in 1922. This event is the sixth-oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and the third-oldest on the PGA Tour.
This event has always been held in the San Antonio area. The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio became the host course for this tournament in 2010 replacing La Cantera Golf Club which hosted the event from 1995 to 2009. TPC San Antonio has two courses on the property with The Canyons course being the other. In total, this event has been hosted by eight different courses.
The Valero Energy Foundation took over the naming rights in 2002 and has retained the rights ever since. Before the Valero Energy Foundation, Westin was the sponsor of this event.
Most Tournament Wins:
3, Arnold Palmer (1960, 1961, 1962) & Justin Leonard (2000, 2001, 2007)
72-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
268, Corey Conners (2019)
18-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
62, Trey Mullinax (3rd round, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC San Antonio is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking 18th of the 50th courses players faced last season. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par three times. In 2022, only four holes (No. 11, No. 12, No. 16, & No. 17) played under par outside of the four par 5’s (No. 2, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 18).
In terms of length, TPC San Antonio is slightly above average measuring 7,438 yards. The course ranks 20th out of 46 courses in distance. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards. This ranks as the 12th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway won’t be as costly. However, most of the fairways are tree-lined which means wayward drives will lead to trouble. The average green size is roughly 6,400 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour.
The four Par 3’s range between 171 yards and 241 yards. The only par 3 to play under par last year was No. 16 (-0.009). No. 7 and No. 14 are two of the more challenging holes as they had more bogeys than birdies recorded on them in last year’s tournament.
Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 347 yards with the longest being No. 4, playing 481 yards.
The four Par 5’s are No. 2, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 18. While they all played under par last season, they are some of the more challenging par 5’s on Tour given their distance. All of these par 5’s are over 590 yards with two listed at 600+ yards.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16 – 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Valero Texas Open. Only one of the world’s top twenty players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week. He went 0-3 in his group matches struggling with a hand injury. It’s unsure if he’s 100% this week so that’s something to monitor. Before that, he was in great form finishing 2nd at THE PLAYERS Championship and T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’ll be making his debut at the Valero Texas Open, so we have no course history on him.
Rickie Fowler (+1600) failed to make it out of the group stage at last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event despite beating World No. 2 Jon Rahm in his first matchup. Despite a disappointing result at Austin Country Club, Rickie has certainly turned his game around. In his last five starts on Tour (excluding last week), he has finished inside the top 20 four times. While he’s still inconsistent off the tee, his approach play has been much improved from last year. His putting has also been a strong point for him gaining strokes in each of his last three starts. Last year at the Valero Texas Open he missed the cut but in 2021 and 2019 he finished T17. If he hopes to make it to Augusta next weekend, he’ll need to win here in San Antonio.
Corey Conners (+2000) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week going 2-1 in his three matches. His lone loss was to Cameron Young who would make it to the final. Before that, he missed the cut for the second time this year at THE PLAYERS Championship. Conners had had success at TPC San Antonio before winning this event back in 2019. Outside of that, he has finished T26-T14-T35 in his three other appearances at the Valero Texas Open.
Si Woo Kim (+2200) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week going 2-1 in his three matches. In his eleven other starts on the PGA Tour this season, Si Woo has never missed a cut. The highlight of his year so far was his victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played in the Valero Texas Open six times before finishing MC-T22-T45-T4-T23-T13.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) withdrew after his second match at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week. It’s unsure if he’s 100% this week given his neck/back injury so that’s something to monitor. Before that, he finished 5th at THE PLAYERS Championship but missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational. Last year at the Valero Texas Open he withdrew and in 2021 he finished T30.
Previous Winners in the field:
J.J. Spaun (’22), Corey Conners (’19), Andrew Landry (’18), Kevin Chappell (’17), Charley Hoffman (’16), Jimmy Walker (’15), and Martin Laird (’13)
Notable Withdraws:
Keith Mitchell (Undisclosed), Stephan Jaeger (Undisclosed), Anders Albertson (back), Robert Streb (W/D), Davis Thompson (W/D), Brian Gay (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Kevin Streelman: T19/ T15/ T13/ T37/ T53/ T8/ 6/ T18
Keith Mitchell: T26/ T17
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Kramer Hickok: MC/ MC/ MC
Jason Dufner: MC/ MC/ MC
Jonathan Byrd: MC/ MC/ MC
Stephan Jaeger: MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Gligic: MC/ MC
Harry Higgs: MC/ MC
Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ MC/ T58
Austin Cook: T30/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
Price: 200-1
2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
Price: 16-1
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Corey Conners (-20)
Price: 200-1
2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
Price: 200-1
Picks (Outrights):
Given the unpredictable nature of this event, I’ll be going with a smaller card. In terms of outright, I’ve gone with a higher volume approach. The Master’s is next week so my card will be larger than normal.
Taylor Montgomery (+2800) – BetMGM
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Matt Kuchar (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Thomas Detry (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Aaron Rai (+5500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Kevin Chappell (+18000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
Nate Lashley (+18000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
Lucas Glover (+18000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
Austin Smotherman (+21000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.04 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.04 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Rickie Fowler (+230) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 10s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Si Woo Kim (+115) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Corey Conners (+120) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valero Texas Open: 4.04 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We went 1-0-1 last night continuing our hot streak (17-4-1 in L23). We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few key matchups along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Carolina Hurricanes
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Lightning: 42-26-6, 3rd Atlantic (17-19-1 Away)
The Tampa Bay Lightning are firmly cemented in the third spot in the Atlantic Division baring an absolute collapse (which will not happen). As of now, they will face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team they beat in the first round of the playoffs last season. They’ve been in a little bit of a slump going 4-5-1 in their last ten but as we’ve seen in years past, this team can turn it around come playoff time. Carolina has clinched a playoff berth but are still in a battle for the first spot in the Metropolitan Division. They do have a three-point lead over New Jersey with two games in hand so it’s their division to lose. In their two previous matchups this season, Carolina has won both games.
Los Angeles Kings @ Calgary Flames
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Kings: 43-20-10, 2nd Pacific (18-11-6 Away)
The Los Angeles Kings still have a chance to win the Pacific Division. They’re currently two points behind the Vegas Golden Knights. As of late, the Kings have been on a tear going 8-0-2 in their last ten games. On the other hand, Calgary is hoping to make the playoffs sitting four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the second wild card spot. Despite going 5-5 in their last ten games, they have failed to win back-to-back games since early March. In their two matchups this season, the Kings have won both games.
Vegas Golden Knights: 46-21-6, 1st Pacific (22-14-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
-110
-120
-1.5 (+190)
o7 (+105)
Vegas Golden Knights
-110
+100
+1.5 (-225)
u7 (-125)
The Oilers currently sit in 3rd place in the Pacific Division. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late going 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Edmonton’s offense has been hot scoring at least three goals a game during that span. Just like the Oilers, the Golden Knights have been great as of late going 8-2-0 in their last ten games. They’re at the top of the Pacific Division with a two point lead over the Los Angeles Kings. In their three previous matchups this season, the Oilers have gone 2-1. All of those games have gone over the total as well.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Montreal Canadiens/ Philadelphia Flyers Over 6.5 (-110) – DraftKings
The Canadiens are coming off a 4-3 SO win against the Buffalo Sabres last night. Despite being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Habs haven’t thrown in the towel yet winning three of their last four games. Their offense has been great as of late averaging 3.80 GF/G while they’ve been worse defensively averaging 4.30 GA/G in their last ten games. Philadelphia’s offense has also found a spark of their own scoring at least three goals in each of their last six games. Given the new found offensive production I expect this to be a high scoring matchup tonight. Historically, the last four games between these teams have gone over the total as well. The Flyers have Carter Hart in net while Cayden Primeau will start for Montreal. Primeau will making his first start of the season which is another reason I like the total here.
Pittsburgh Penguins in Regulation (-125) – DraftKings
The Penguins are coming off a nice 4-3 win against the Washington Capitals. They’re holding onto the second wild card spot in the East and need win every game they can. Casey Desmith started the last two games and will get the nod tonight. He’s been great in his last three starts only averaging 2.33 goals against during that span. Alex Nedeljkovic has been confirmed for Detroit who’s been bad this year with a -10.5 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). The Red Wings have also been struggling offensively only averaging 2.10 GF/G in their last ten. I think we see Pittsburgh put on a strong outing tonight as they look to solidify their spot in the playoffs. They’re an overall better team and they should prove it tonight.
Winnipeg Jets in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings
The Winnipeg Jets are fighting for their playoff lives right now. After a great start, they’ve struggled in second half of the season. Despite that, they have found ways to win against inferior teams as shown in their recent games against Anaheim and Arizona. While they haven’t been the prettiest of wins, this team has found ways to prevail. Winnipeg has a similar scenario tonight against a Sharks team that hasn’t won in their last nine games. During that stretch, San Jose has lost by multiple goals in eight of those matchups. The Jets also have the advantage in net tonight given the matchup of Hellebuyck vs Reimer. James Reimer has surrendered five or more goals in each of his last two starts. Winnipeg’s clearly the superior team and should be able to handle a Sharks squad that looks like their ready for the offseason.
Player Props to Target:
Joel Farabee over 0.5 Points (-122) – FanDuel
Joel Farabee has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s also recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Canadiens, Farabee has recorded over 0.5 points each twice.
Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 Points (-130) – FanDuel
Patrice Bergeron has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four. In his two previous matchups against the Predators, Bergeron has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
Brock Boeser over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+102) – FanDuel
Brock Boeser has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last four. The Blues rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.29. At home, that number drops slightly to 31.31. St. Louis has also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers in their last ten games. In his two previous matchups against the Blues, Boeser has gone over this number each time.
Jason Zucker over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – DraftKings
Jason Zucker has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Red Wings rank 9th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.28. At home, that number drops slightly to 29.08. Detroit has also given up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers this season. In his previous matchups against the Red Wings, Zucker recorded seven shots on goal in eight shot attempts.
Mike Matheson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – BetRivers
Mike Matheson has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Flyers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.44. At home, that number drops slightly to 30.46. Philadelphia has also given up the 8th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen in their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Flyers, Matheson has gone over this number each time.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’re on a hot streak in the NHL going 16-4 in our last twenty plays. We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders
Time: 7:30 PM ET
New Jersey Devils: 46-19-8, 2nd Metropolitan (26-6-4 Away)
New York Islanders: 37-28-9, 4th Metropolitan (21-13-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New Jersey Devils
-125
-130
-1.5 (+200)
o6 (-110)
New York Islanders
+105
+110
+1.5 (-240)
u6 (-110)
The Devils are in the midst of a playoff battle in the Metropolitan Division. They’re three only points behind the first-place Carolina Hurricanes and four points ahead of the third-place New York Rangers. New Jersey has been in a bit of a downward spiral only winning two of their last five games. They’ll have a great opportunity tonight as the Islanders have also been struggling losing their last two games. Unlike New Jersey, the Islanders have not clinched a playoff berth but currently hold the top wild-card spot in the East.
Minnesota Wild: 42-22-9, 1st Central (23-11-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Seattle Kraken
+120
+100
+1.5 (-245)
o6 (+100)
Minnesota Wild
-140
-120
-1.5 (+205)
u6 (-120)
The Seattle Kraken currently are in the top wild-card spot in the Western Conference with 88 points. They’ve failed to find any sort of consistency as of late having not won back-to-back games since the beginning of the month. Minnesota currently has a narrow lead over Colorado and Dallas for the first spot in the Central Division. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late going 6-3-1 in their last ten and will need to keep it up if they hope to hold onto that top spot in their division.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
New Jersey Devils/ New York Islanders Under 6.0 (-110)
I fully expect this to be a playoff-like game tonight between these two teams. Both teams have their top goaltenders in net tonight with Vanecek and Sorokin getting the start. Vitek Vanecek has been solid as of late only averaging 2.00 goals against in his last four starts. Ilya Sorokin struggled in his last start but before that has been in great form. In their last ten games, the Devils and Islanders have both been great defensively averaging 2.60 GA/G and 2.90 GA/G respectively. Even with New Jersey’s high-powered offense, the Islanders have the defensive capability to limit their chances. The Devils’ offense has taken a slight downturn in production only averaging 2.90 GF/G in their last ten. I think this is a very close low-scoring game between these teams that comes down to the wire and possibly overtime.
Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – FanDuel/ BetMGM
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 8.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Ducks rank 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 39.01. At home, that number drops slightly to 38.33. Anaheim has also given up the most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his four previous matchups against the Ducks, Rantanen has gone over this number each time.
Player Props to Target:
Darnell Nurse over 0.5 Points (-110) – FanDuel
Darnell Nurse has gone over this number in each of his last four games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last four. In his three previous matchups against the Coyotes, Nurse has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
Devon Toews over 0.5 Points (+104) – FanDuel
Devon Toews has gone over this number in three of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last two. In his four previous matchups against the Ducks, Toews has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
Jared McCann over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130) – FanDuel
Jared McCann has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Wild rank 13th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.67. However, in their last ten games that number has increased to 34.90. Minnesota has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings/ FanDuel/ BetMGM
Carter Verhaeghe has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 9.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Senators rank 23rd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.90. At home, that number drops slightly to 30.81. Ottawa has also given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last four. The Canadiens rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.75. On the road, that number increases slightly to 35.54. Montreal has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games. In his five previous matchups against the Canadiens, Skinner has gone over this number each time. Tage Thomspon is out tonight which has elevated Skinner’s shot total in the past. In his last three games without Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner has recorded 7-4-5 shots on goal.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
AL East
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
New York Yankess +110/94.5
Toronto Blue Jays +200/91.5
Tampa Bay Rays +365/89
Baltimore Orioles +1000/77.5
Boston Red Sox +1000/78.5
Toronto Blue Jays
Yup. It’s not the Yankees I have at the top of this division. The Jays were very active this off-season. To start they traded away established cleanup man Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle who knocked them out in 2022 for a prospect and a solid reliever in Erik Swanson. This looked like a bad move initially however they were just getting started. The big splash came next with the Jays trading Gabriel Moreno one of their three top tier catchers along with Lourdes Gurrel for Daulton Varsho. Varsho is a big time left handed bat that the Jays really needed. They also got busy with free agents. First, they signed Kevin Kiermaier to patrol Center Field which is more a defensive play than anything. Followed that up by snagging the Bassitt Hound (Chris Bassitt) to improve the rotation, and finally added Brandon Belt to put another solid left handed bat in the lineup. The top seven in the lineup all have major pop in their bats. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will start things off followed by some combination of Brandon Belt, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Matt Chapman. They then have speed and defense at the bottom to flip the lineup over in Kiermaier and Whit Merrifield. The pitching staff is led by Alex Manoah and Kevin Gausman. Bassitt will slot in third and they are hoping Jose Berrios and Yusei Kukuchi can improve upon 2022. The solid bullpen is led by Jordan Romano closing things out, but is really good top to bottom. Their young core is all here now and the Blue Jays are going all in this year. Don’t be surprised if they add a starter and another elite bullpen arm along the way if things are looking good in July. Prediction 92-70
New York Yankees
On February 1st it looked like The Yankees looked like they had put together the top pitching staff in the big leagues featuring Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and the recently signed Carlos Rodon. Since then Montas is out for the year with shoulder surgery. Rodon has hit the IL with a strained forearm, and although no structural elbow issues so far usually a strained forearm is the precursor to a UCL problem. Severino then hit they IL with a strained Lat this week. That leaves the Yanks strarting the year with Cole, Cortes and three guys who weren’t in their rotation plans to start the year, although Clarke Schmidt is a former first round pick. Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga anchor the Bullpen, which while young proved effective last year in picking up the pieces of Aroldis Chapman. The lineup is their strength with Aaron Judge leading them. Much of the core of this lineup is older and they are hoping for a youth movement to help reinvigorate it. Anthony Volpe has seemingly won the job at shortstop and will hope to provide just that. They will need healthy years from the elder statesmen like Anthony Rizzo, DJ Lemahieu, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton to have a chance to repeat the 99 wins from a year ago. Prediction 90-72
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays always seem to be able to rebuild through trades and homegrown talent, but I think they are starting to run a little thin on both this year especially with starting pitcher injuries. I’ll start with those, Shane Baz is already out for the season, and always injured Tyler Glasnow is going to miss at least two months. Shane McLanahan proved himself to be an ace last season, and Jeffrey Springs rediscovered himself at 30. Drew Rasmussen is solid, but the Rays weren’t counting on big impacts from Zach Eflin and Josh Fleming. The bullpen is top 5 in the majors, and the Rays will mix guys in and out of the closer roll. Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam will get most of the chances. The Rays are hoping can’t miss prospect Wander Franco finally has his healthy breakout season. He is only 22 years old, so I am not worried, and I think it will be now. If he does they can compete, but if not Randy Arozarena is the only other top tier talent in an underwhelming lineup. Prediction 84-78
Baltimore Orioles
I think the O’s are one more year away from really competing and they really overachieved last season. One metric I saw had them 20 wins above performance expectation. That being said I really love the young core of bats on this team. Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle each have shown solid growth in their 2-4 years in MLB. They were joined last year by switch hitting Adley Rutschman at catcher who will soon be the #1 catcher in the league I believe. Following him to The Show was Gunnar Henderson who while not as polished has an extremely high ceiling. The pitching staff added Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin who will eat some innings over the course of the year, but also likely give up their fair share of runs. Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish are kind of in the same mold. Grayson Rodriguez is a first round draft pick that should break the year with the club, and very quickly could become their top option. Felix Bautista is a top 5 closer i the bullpen, but he doesn’t have much help. If they get a top tier arm in free agency next off season this team could be ready to go after a division title. Prediction 78-84
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox still have Rafael Devers, but lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency. The signed Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to replace him as well as snagging international free agent Masataka Yoshida. Most of the lineup doesn’t have any speed, and the bottom half of it is well below average. The pitching staff gets a healthy Chris Sale back, but free agent signing Corey Kluber is three years past his prime. They will get James Paxton back at some point, but he hasn’t pitched much since Covid. Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford will fill in until Paxton and Brayan Bello get back. Kenley Jansen takes over as closer and Chris Martin comes in as setup guy. I don’t see any improvement from Boston. Prediction 77-85
AL East Free Plays
I just think the Yankees have gotten older, and the pitching staff injuries are going to catch-up with them. They’re going to have to outscore everyone to win. Toronto just has a better lineup top to bottom and a lot more youth on their side.
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Let’s build off our monster 5 unit CRUSH yesterday!
Bonus Play(s):
SDSU vs Creighton -2.5 (O/U 135) 2:20pm ET
Under 135 (Caesars -110) 1.2 units
SDSU ML (WynnBet +130) 0.5 unit
Correlated Parlay: SDSU +2.5/ Under 135 (FanDuel +260) 0.4 unit
Miami FL vs Texas -3.5 (O/U 148) 5:05pm ET
ESPY award winner Rodney Terry, OK it hasn’t happened yet, but one would assume it has to be a strong possibility of those words being uttered July 12th at the awards ceremony. He came in mid season through drama, crisis and a sputtering team. Most assumed what would happen next, but he had other plans. Get better each and every day, improve the players, and make a big run in March. All boxes have been checked off so far, but making the Final Four was probably a pipe dream in early January. Now it’s more than that, they are the favorites to win today and a realistic chance of cutting down the nets. Now beating Miami will be no easy task, but can most certainly be achievable. Having Disu back in the line-up will certainly help their chances, and I’m gambling that he plays!
For starters their back in Kansas City, MO where they won the Big 12 championship just weeks ago, and let’s be honest it will be more of a home game atmosphere due to the location. The Horns have rolled recently, shooting almost 50% in their L5, while averaging 14.2 assists in that span. A category the Hurricanes struggle with, giving up 14.4 assists per game. As well as going 7-1 ATS in their last 8. You have to go back to February 25th vs Baylor the last time Texas failed to cover. Committing 15 turnovers in that contest, a category they have drastically improved in recently. Yes, with their style of play, committing turnovers is what you give up, but they have found a way to keep that number down. Averaging only 9.5 in their last 8. With the Hurricanes not getting any extra possessions it will be hard to keep up the offensive production they have shown so far.
Texas is a completely different animal than Houston, they play a disruptive type of defense, they get after loose balls and don’t stand around. AE: they’re not lazy like Houston. Only giving up 24 FG’s per contest in their L5, 6 made three’s per game at 31%, 8.8 assists, and as well as staying disciplined and not sending opponents to the charity strike. At 10.6 per game.
Who would have thought that Alabama would get bounced by a Mountain West team? Well, maybe a few of us did, but now it’s time to ask why! Basically, Alabama played their worst game from an efficiency standpoint all year. Bama only went 3-27 from deep and they even won the rebounding battle 52-48. The Tide couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. Now in staying that, it doesn’t make San Diego State a bad team. It just makes them a little fortunate to be here. Creighton on the other hand is quite fortunate getting to play a 15 seed in the sweet 16. This is going to be a fascinating matchup of basically the Creighton offense vs the San Diego State defense, but something is a little different this year with the Blue Jays. They now play good DEFENSE! Creighton ranks number 14th on kenpom in defensive efficiency and 11th in defensive rebounding. Their offense ranks 21st in efficiency and 24th in effective FG%. The Aztecs, while having a great defense ranking 4th in efficiency, only ranks 70th on the offensive side of the ball and 212th in effective FG%. Something has to give right? If you look at the pure numbers, there are no real matchup advantages on either side of the ball, but what I will say is that free throws might play a big part here along with shooting. If the Aztecs get in trouble here, they may not be able to get back in this game. I am taking the Blue Jays to win a close game.
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Milwaukee at Denver -3 (237) 9:00pm ET
You have to go back to January 21st at Cleveland for Milwaukee to be ‘underdogs’ entering a game. Now I’m sure in their minds, they’re the best team in every game. I mean who could blame them all they seem to do is win, but have they as dogs? The short answer is no, they are a dreadful 3-9 ATS as dogs, and I don’t see heading to the mile high state will help boost that record at all. The Bucks will be playing their 8th away game in their last 12, and 2nd back to back in less than two weeks. Again their confidence is soaring, but I have to ask, are they playing as well as it seems? I mean they’re scoring points in massive bunches vs Indiana, Toronto, Utah, Sacramento. Does that translate to, in Denver? No. Playing at Ball Arena is no easy task, where Denver is 30-6 SU and 23-13 ATS.
Then again the Nuggets have stumbled since the break, losing 6 of 14 games, and arguably have lost that ‘best team’ status. Combine that with Milwaukee’s record of 10-1 ATS on zero days rest, some would say how could you back Denver? For me, very easily. The perfect spot to show the basketball world, were still the big dogs and the team to beat. Which lands me on Denver here laying the points.
Today Dillon @Dilbertospicks joins Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev to talk some sweet 16 and Saturday’s elite 8 games with some FREE PLAYS!
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Milwaukee at Utah +9.5 (O/U 236.5) 9:00pm ET
No Lauri, no Clarkson, no turnovers? A category they have been flat out bad, this Utah team will shoot 50+% from the field and get buried. Why, well lack of possessions due to TO’s. The rest of these guys have started to gel and realized when we play like a team, this game is much easier. Only committing 13 a game in their L5. Hence wins vs quality teams such as Sacramento and Boston. Now the deer are a different animal yes, but I believe this is the perfect spot for Milwaukee to have a let down. Playing without Middleton will definitely hurt as well. Coming off two comfortable wins vs bottom feeder San Antonio, and defenseless Toronto. How do you beat Milwaukee, SCORE. Yes I know, obviously, but they have had trouble putting teams away due to the defensive end. Certainly not offensive, because they just keep coming. Utah has the ability to score at a high rate, and because of this I think they’re a great bet tonight. Oh and being 10-1 ATS as home dogs doesn’t hurt as well, playing the dog role seems to be their specialty. Sporting a 22-6-1 ATS record as 3-12 point underdogs. Let’s sprinkle in some lunch money on the ML as well.
Jazz +9.5 (bet365 -110) 1.5 units
Jazz ML (DraftKings +320) 0.2 unit
Phoenix at Sacramento -3.5 (O/U 239) 10:00pm ET
Yes the Kings got two days to rest at home, was it enough to get back to how they were playing before? I don’t believe so. Playing their 6th game in 10 days, completing two back to backs, four of them on the road and in 3 different time zones. The Kings have shown time and time again playing against inferior competition is their specialty, going 22-12 ATS vs teams under .500. Above .500 they’re not so hot. Problem is Phoenix has been straight up BAD since KD went down with an ankle injury, going 1-5 SU in their L6. Losing by 9 points or more in 4 of them. Giving up 51% shooting and 38% from downtown in their L5. With the Kings averaging almost 18 made three pointers in their L5, is not a good combination. With Ayton out again forcing the Suns to go small and force Chris Paul to pick up the pace. Combined with Sacramento who ranks 1st in pace, I think this will be an up and down the court kind of game.
Over 239 (FanDuel -110) 1.1 units
Let’s move on to my best bet, the Thunder on a back to back. Am I nuts?
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (O/U 230.5) 10:00pm ET
Believe it or not, they have a very good record on a back to back with SHAI PLAYING. The Thunder are 4-2-1 ATS on back to backs, and 4-1 ATS with Shai in the line-up. Four outright wins as dogs of 3 1/2, 4 and 11 points. This is an up and coming team with a bright future. Going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall, and seem to thrive off of a loss. Being 22-13-1 ATS on the season. Are the Lakers playing good ball currently? Absolutely. Unfortunately I think that’s the problem. As soon as the media and sports world say good things about the purple and gold, they become complacent. Playing complacent vs in my opinion the hardest working, dig-deep, out-hustle you for the loose balls team in the NBA is a scary combo! The Lakers give up almost 94 field goal attempts per game, and commit 14 turnovers a game, which plays right into OKC’s hands. I’m all over the Thunder tonight with the points, and will sprinkle in a little ML.
Thunder +5.5 (FanDuel -108) 2.2 units
Thunder ML (FanDuel +184) 0.45 unit
BONUS PLAY: Miami FL ML (DraftKings +290) 0.4 unit 7:15pm ET
I think there is some value in this game on the ML, the Hurricanes have the talent and experience to beat Houston. With Omier back in the line-up and officially healthy, they can go head to head with the Cougars and potentially pull the upset! So I will make a small play on this game.
If you look at the pure numbers, there are no real matchup advantages on either side of the ball, but what I will say is that free throws might play a big part here along with shooting. If the Aztecs get in trouble here, they may not be able to get back in this game. I am taking the Blue Jays to win a close game.
