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NHL Preview & Picks – March 24th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

Fantastic night yesterday as we went 5-0 on plays. We only have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

New York Islanders @ Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • New York Islanders: 37-27-8, 4th Metropolitan (16-15-5 Away)
  • Columbus Blue Jackets: 22-42-7, 8th Metropolitan (13-20-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Islanders -195 -240 -1.5 (+110) o6.5 (+100)
Columbus Blue Jackets +165 +200 +1.5 (-130) u6.5 (-120)

 

There are only three matchups tonight, so I figured I’d take the one that means something to both teams. The Islanders are in the middle of a playoff race right now while the Blue Jackets are amid the Bedard Sweepstakes. New York currently holds the first wild card spot in the Eastern Division. They’ve underperformed all season but after the acquisition of Bo Horvat, they’ve started to go on a run. New York’s 7-2-1 in their last ten games behind some stellar goaltending from Ilya Sorokin. Despite adding Johnny Hockey, the Blue Jackets have been awful this season and sit at the bottom of the league. They do have some talent, but their smartest move right now is to lose out and give themselves the best chance at acquiring a generational talent in Connor Bedard.

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • New York Islanders team total over 3.5 (Inc. OT & Shootout) (-132) – Barstool
  • New York Islanders/ Columbus Blue Jackets over 6.0 (-127) – Barstool

The Islanders come into this game off a great 7-2 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders as of late averaging 5.67 goals for in their last three games. Despite the absence of Matt Barzal, the Islanders have found ways to generate offense. Columbus has been horrendous defensively allowing at least four goals in their last five games. On the other hand, Columbus has shown signs of like up front scoring 7-2-4 in their last three games. Michael Hutchinson will get the start for them tonight who has a -2.7 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) in his six games. In his last two start’s he’s allowed at least four goals. I’m expecting the Islanders to carry the load in terms of goals tonight. New York’s also been worse defensively on the road so if we can get 2 from Columbus, I think this game should go over the total.

 

Player Props to Target:

[General Note, Nathan MacKinnon has been bumped to 5.5 shots on goal tonight from 4.5 which he’s been set at the entire season. Just a heads up for the people.]

 

  • Jean-Gabriel Pageau over 0.5 Points (+112) – FanDuel
    • Jean-Gabriel Pageau has gone over this number in each of his last four games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last three. In his six previous matchups against the Blue Jackets, Pageau has recorded over 0.5 points five times.
  • Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-130) – PointsBet
    • Mikko Rantanen has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 8.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last two. The Coyotes rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.64. On the road, that number drops slightly to 34.37. Arizona has also given up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his four previous matchups against the Coyotes, Rantanen has gone over this number three times.
  • Bo Horvat over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – BetRivers
    • Bo Horvat has gone over this number in eight of his last ten games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of his last ten. The Blue Jackets rank 30th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.24. At home, that number drops slightly to 34.60. Columbus has also given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Breaking down the Sweet 16 in the West

By
Eric Rocco
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We went 3-1 in my previous article breaking down the West in the Round of 64, unfortunately the over misses by a few points from an undefeated article. Now let’s break down the two Sweet 16 match-ups in the West.

8 Arkansas vs 4 UConn -3.5 (O/U 140) 7:15pm ET

First we have one of the most intriguing match-ups of the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks vs the Huskies, a battle of two squads with very high ceilings. Arkansas clawed their way back to a victory taking down the defending champs, then Coach Musselman took off his shirt. No really, he did, he then went on to jump on the scorers table hyping up the crowd in a bizarre scene. Do they have enough to get back to the Elite 8? In my opinion, UConn has just a little too much fire power. Now the Arkansas defense has been better in the tournament, but enough to stifle the Huskies for 40 minutes, that will be difficult. I believe it can be done though, which is why I’m not taking a side in this game. The Huskies turn the ball over a little too much for my liking, at 12.4 a game in their L5. UConn has gotten off to slow starts in both tournament games, combined with Arkansas being a 2nd half team, puts me on the under in the first half.

Play: 1H: under 64.5 (BetRivers -110) 0.9 unit

BonusPlay: IF UConn is down at halftime, take them in the 2nd Half. *ONLY IF THEY ARE LOSING* 0.7 unit

 

3 Gonzaga vs 2 UCLA -1 (O/U 145) 9:45pm ET

Drew Timme and offensive minded Gonzaga, take on defensive minded UCLA. The question is, who will get the best of who? I believe the Bruins smothering defense will be too much for Mark Few and the Zags. Injuries have definitively made the public question this defense, and rightly so, but the next man up mentality has been bought into from these guys since the start. Bona and Singleton are questionable, but on track to play. I believe both got the necessary treatments during the days off to get on the court. This UCLA defense has given up an average of 20 field goals a game in their L4. Will they hold Gonzaga to that low of a total, I would assume not, but it will be a number the Zags are not accustomed too. A big bonus for UCLA, the Zags rank at the bottom in many defensive categories. So if UCLA can shoot at a high %, look out! They have played two games where they have seen the ball go through quite often at 50 and 54% in those two games. Some of these Bruins have done this before and have not forgotten what happened two years ago, when Suggs hit the buzzer beater to knock UCLA out of the tournament. Well revenge is sweet, and has been on the Bruins mind all week!

I know many fans out there are hoping for fireworks tonight and a buzzer beater to drop the fans jaws. I don’t believe we will see this, I think UCLA will beat them comfortably. They will absolutely slow this game down, limiting the Zags possessions, committing very few turnovers and getting back on D.

Play: UCLA ML (DraftKings -115) 1.8 units

Winning Margin: 3-6 points +400 0.25 unit

Winning Margin: 7-9 points +650 0.4 unit

Winning Margin: 10-13 points +700 0.35 unit

 

College Basketball Sweet 16 Video Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
@theoddsbreakers

#freeplays #freepicks #sportsbetting #marchmadness #sweet16 @betfredsports @kylehunterpicks @cubfandanny

♬ Sunny – Official Sound Studio

NHL Preview & Picks – March 23rd, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We have twelve games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • New York Rangers: 41-20-10, 3rd Metropolitan (20-8-6 Away)
  • Carolina Hurricanes: 46-15-8, 1st Metropolitan (24-8-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Rangers +125 +120 +1.5 (-205) o5.5 (-120)
Carolina Hurricanes -145 -140 -1.5 (+175) u5.5 (+100)

 

These teams matched up two nights ago at Madison Square Garden where the Hurricanes (+106) defeated the Rangers 3-2 (O/U:6.0). That narrow loss ended the Rangers four game winning streak. Carolina has now won back-to-back games and holds a narrow lead in the Metropolitan Division over the Devils. New York’s in comfortable third place in that same division but can help their rivals gain some ground tonight with a win.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 42-19-9, 2nd Atlantic (17-12-4 Away)
  • Florida Panthers: 36-28-7, 4th Atlantic (21-10-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Toronto Maple Leafs -105 +120 +1.5 (-205) o7 (+110)
Florida Panthers -115 -140 -1.5 (+175) u7 (-130)

 

Toronto is coming off a brutal 7-1 loss against the New York Islanders. Before that, they rattled off two wins against the Senators and Hurricanes. The Leafs are currently 2nd place in the Atlantic Division with a three-point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they do have two games in hand. Florida’s currently in a wild-card playoff battle with the Islanders and Penguins. They’ve been on a hot streak as of late going 7-2-1 in their last ten but need to keep pace if they hope to see the postseason. In their previous matchup this season, the Leafs (-161) defeated the Panthers 5-4 (O/U:6.5) in OT.

 

Seattle Kraken @ Nashville Predators

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Seattle Kraken: 39-24-7, 4th Pacific (23-9-3 Away)
  • Nashville Predators: 35-26-8, 5th Central (17-12-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Seattle Kraken -135 -135 -1.5 (+185) o6.5 (+100)
Nashville Predators +115 +115 +1.5 (-215) u6.5 (-120)

 

The Seattle Kraken control their playoff destiny as they currently sit in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games after losing their three previous games before that. Nashville has made a playoff push despite a depleted roster and selling some of their talent at the deadline. The Predators are four points out of the second wild-card spot with three games in hand on the Jets. They ended their three-game losing streak against the Sabres on Tuesday night and are hoping to ride that momentum into tonight’s game. In their only matchup this season, the Kraken (-112) defeated the Predators 5-1 (O/U:6.5).

 

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Pittsburgh Penguins: 35-26-10, 5th Metropolitan (16-15-5 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 38-19-14, 1st Central (17-9-9 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Pittsburgh Penguins +135 +125 +1.5 (-180) o6.5 (-105)
Dallas Stars -155 -145 -1.5 (+155) u6.5 (-115)

 

The Penguins stopped their four-game skid with a massive 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche last night. They have another tough matchup tonight and haven’t done well on no rest this season with a 4-7-2 record. As of now, they currently hold the second wild card spot in the East. The Dallas Stars are currently tied for first in the Central Division with the Minnesota Wild. They’ve been in a bit of a slump lately losing three of their last four games. Part of the reason for that decline has been Jake Oettinger who’s allowed five goals in each of his last two starts. In their only matchup this season, the Penguins (-124) defeated the Stars 5-1 (O/U:6.5).

 

Vegas Golden Knights @ Calgary Flames

  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Vegas Golden Knights: 44-21-6, 1st Pacific (22-7-5 Away)
  • Calgary Flames: 32-25-15, 5th Pacific (16-14-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Vegas Golden Knights +115 +120 +1.5 (-205) o6.5 (+100)
Calgary Flames -135 -140 -1.5 (+175) u6.5 (-120)

 

Vegas holds a narrow lead in the Pacific Division over the Los Angeles Kings. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late winning eight of their last ten games. However, one of their losses during that span was to Calgary (-113) where they lost 7-2 (O/U:6.0). The Flames have been a disappointment this season and find themselves on the outside looking in. They’re four points out of a playoff spot with ten games remaining. If they want to have any shot, they need to hope for Winnipeg to have a meltdown.

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Boston Bruins 1st Period -0.5 (-115) – DraftKings

Historically, the Bruins have dominated the Canadiens winning each of their last eight matchups. However, the Bruins’ moneyline and puckline are unplayable tonight so I had to get creative to find ways to back them. In the last ten games, the Bruins have averaged 1.10 GF/G and 0.60 GA/G. On the other hand, the Canadiens have averaged 1.60 GF/G and 2.10 GA/G in the last ten games. At home, the Bruins have covered this line in six of their last ten games. On the road, the Canadiens have been leading after the first in just three of their last ten games. Earlier this season, they were tied after the first period, but I think the Bruins have a little extra spark tonight. The Bruins also have a significant advantage in net tonight given the goaltender matchup of Allen vs Swayman. Jake Allen faced Colorado in his last start where he allowed six goals on fifteen shot attempts. He’ll face another high-powered offense tonight where I’m expecting a similar result.

 

  • Tampa Bay Lightning/ Ottawa Senators over 6.5 (-130) – Caesars

Tampa Bay is coming off a terrible loss against the Canadiens on Tuesday night where they only scored twice. They’ve shown that they have the ability to rebound, and I fully expect them to do so tonight. Ottawa’s offense has been stagnant in their last two games, but I expect that to change tonight as well. They’ve been much better at home this season, averaging 3.54 GF/G compared to 2.64 GF/G on the road. Tampa has also been worse defensively on the road this season averaging 3.34 GA/G compared to 2.76 GA/G at home. The goaltending matchup is also advantageous for the total as well. Brian Elliot has been confirmed as the starter for Tampa Bay which has caused the line to swing in Ottawa’s favor. While he hasn’t been awful with a -1.0 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) this season, he has historically struggled against the Senators. In each of his last two matchups against them, he’s allowed at least three goals. Mads Sogaard will get the nod for Ottawa who has a -2.2 GSAx in thirteen starts. In his last seven starts, he’s allowed at least four goals.

 

  • Chicago Blackhawks / Washington Capitals over 6.0 (-120) – Caesars

Anton Khudobin will get his first start for Chicago after being acquired from the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline. Khudobin was 3-4-1 with a 3.64 GAA and .879 save percentage before being demoted to the minors. Opposite of him, will be Darcy Kuemper who’s been in a sump allowing four goals in each of his last two starts. Washington has been horrendous defensively allowing at least five goals in each of their last three games. While Chicago, has been great up front, they should be able to get a few past Kuemper tonight. I’m expecting Washington to carry the load in terms of goals tonight. As I mentioned before, they’ve been poor defensively but have been solid offensively. I expect this to be a sloppy game tonight especially given the goaltending which is why I can see this going over the total.

 

  • Vancouver Canucks Team Total over 3.5 (-135) – DraftKings
  • Vancouver Canucks in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings

Despite a whirlwind season, the Canucks have found some energy and have won seven of their last ten games. During that span, they have only scored over 3.5 goals four times. However, they face a familiar opponent and goaltender that they’ve had success against in the past. James Reimer will get the start for the San Jose Sharks tonight. He has allowed at least four goals against in three of his last five starts. In his previous two starts against the Canucks, he has allowed 5/6 goals. The Sharks are an absolute trainwreck losing nine of their last ten games. During that span, they’ve allowed at least four goals in eight of those matchups. In their three previous matchups against the Canucks this season, they’ve allowed at least four goals in each of those games. Vancouver has shown some signs of life towards the end of the season despite a season to forget. San Jose on the other hand, looks lifeless in their recent games excluding Edmonton. I like Vancouver to roll tonight, especially with Demko in net.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Dylan Strome over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
    • Dylan Strome has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five as well. In his previous matchup against the Blackhawks, Strome recorded over 0.5 points. This is also a revenge angle as Strome played for the Chicago Blackhawks from 2018-2022.
  • Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 Points (+140) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
    • Aleksander Barkov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in each of his last three. In each of his three previous matchups against the Maple Leafs, Barkov recorded over 1.5 points.
  • Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
    • Kevin Hayes has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 4.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Wild rank 12th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.73. On the road, that number increases to 31.80. Minnesota has also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games. In his previous matchup against the Wild, Hayes had three shots on goal in seven attempts.
  • David Pastrnak over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – DraftKings
    • David Pastrnak has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 8.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last three. The Canadiens rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.08. On the road, that number increases to 35.94. Montreal has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his previous matchup against the Canadiens this season, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal in fifteen attempts.
  • J.T. Miller over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – BetRivers
    • J.T. Miller has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Sharks rank 22nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.90. On the road, that number increases to 32.89. San Jose has also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season. In his previous matchup against the Sharks this season, Miller had three shots on goal in four attempts.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

March Madness East Region Part 3

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Well I was correct. I had the most interesting region in the tournament to preview. Madness was prevalent as we saw #16 Seed Fairleigh Dickinson upset #1 seed Purdue marking only the second time it has happened since the field expanded. #9 Florida Atlantic beat #8 Memphis and then knocked off FDU to get to the Sweet sixteen. Rick Barnes led #4 Tennessee couldn’t cover my Free Play against #13 Louisiana, but they won and then held #5 Duke to 52 points in the Round of 32. The bottom half of the bracket saw #3 Kansas State advancing to the Sweet Sixteen with wins over#14 Montana St. and #6 Kentucky. And finally in what hurt my bracket the most #7 Michigan State handled #10 USC and then upset #2 Marquette to advance to the round of 16.

The East Region will be determined on Thursday and Saturday in New York City at Madison Square Garden.

#3 Kansas State vs #7 Michigan State 5:30 PM CT (MSU-1.5 O/U 138)

The Spartans logged two very good defensive efforts to get to this point especially against Marquette where they held the #6 Offense in the land to just 60 points. They will need to slow the pace again against a KSU offense that runs even faster than MU. Michigan State will hope to stay hot from behind the arc as they are the sixth best 3 point shooting team in the country. KSU is the 15th best defending it however so it’s possible MSU does the same formula it did against Marquette and looks to transition baskets and their inside game. KSU will likely look to get out in run as said above, but if that doesn’t work they actually played better when they slowed things down against grinding defensive teams like Iowa State. I’m waiting to pull the trigger on this one cause it just seems like this is one of those magical Izzo runs in the making, but Fun Fact…after beating Marquette, Michigan State is 10-0 when holding teams to 60 points or fewer, and 11-12 when it doesn’t. Wanna guess how many times this year Kansas State has scored less than 60? Once in a 55-50 win against Wichita State. Heavy Lean and likely small play coming from me on Kansas State ML.

#9 Florida Atlantic vs #4 Tennessee Approx. 8:00 CT (Tennessee -5.5 O/U 129.5)

The FAU Owls have 33 wins on the docket now and are top 33 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While they certainly haven’t been tested to the extent of Tennessee they have still shown they can ball. They have a very deep bench and use it frequently. They also have some solid size inside to try to compete and bang with the Volunteers….Good luck. Tennessee is the top defensive team in the nation and the Owls only put up 65 against a Memphis team that wanted to run and imploded late. What Tennessee did to Duke with all the momentum they had and the size and talent on that offense gave me pause. The Vols are going to be physical and out-muscle the Owls. Against other SEC teams this year the Owls got heavily out-rebounded. Tennessee has also held opponents under 60 points 6 out of their last 9 games. I can’t believe I am getting behind Rick Barnes for the second time this tournament, but I think this is a horrible match-up for FAU and I got it at 4.5. I had it as 70-62 so I’m still in on Tennessee at -5.5 for 1.5 Units. Don’t Mess it up Rick.

MLB Season Preview Part 5/7 – AL Central

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

Al Central

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

Cleveland Guardians +120/87

Minnesota Twins +155/84.5

Chicago White Sox +210/82.5

Detroit Tigers +1800/69.5

Kansas City Royals +2300/69

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians won 87 games last year, but I felt they over achieved and the bottom of this division has improved. They did add Josh Bell in Free agency along with All or nothing catcher Mike Zunino who will mentor prospect Bo Naylor. The core of the lineup remains the same and revolves around Jose Ramirez. While he is the only top option on the team, the rest of the core is solid with Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez. Emmanuel Clase was the #2 ranked closer in 2022 and has James Karinchak to get him the ball. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie lead the staff, but the other three were all over achievers in 2022 and I expect regression from Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill and Zach Pleasac. There’s nothing special about this group, and I don’t see them as much more than a .500 team. Prediction 82-80

Minnesota Twins

The Twins were fairly active in the off-season with trades and free agency, but nothing really flashy. The resigning of Carlos Correa after his world tour was probably the most important. He’ll hit in the two hole behind of the oft-injured and uber talented Byron Buxton. I’d love to see what this guy could do in his prime if he stayed healthy for a full season. Jose Miranda and Max Kepler should bat behind them, but overall this lineup is below MLB average top to bottom. The rotation will be led by their trade acquisition Pablo Lopez. He’ll be followed up by Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and the wild card in the group Tyler Mahle. This rotation has potential to be highly above average top to bottom if they can stay healthy. Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez will split the closing duties. If the rotation performs they could exceed expectations, but I just don’t see them being any better than 2022. Prediction 80-82

Chicago White Sox

The Pale Sox lost Jose Abreu in Free Agency and replaced him with their big splash Andrew Benintendi. It’s hard to project sarcasm in writing, but trust me it was there. For a team with a solid pitching staff and solid core of hitters they were likely a few solid players away from competing now. They chose to not spend however and are locked into mediocrity. The top of the lineup is solid with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert offering a dual threat of speed and power combo guys. Eloy Jimenez is an elite slugger, he just needs to put together an injury free season. The bottom of the order is above average, but the depth is weak. Dylan Cease is an ace in the bullpen, but Lucas Giolito hasn’t performed up to his scouting report to this point. Lance Lynn is a solid innings eater with great ratios. Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger will bring up the rear. Liam Hendriks is out as the closer dealing with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, and we wish him well. Until he returns Kendall Graveman will handle the closing duties and things could be rough at the end of games. Depth is going to be a major issue here and the White Sox just keep treading water. Prediction 76-86

Kansas City Royals

The Royals remind me of a poor man’s version of the overachieving 2021 Seattle Mariners. The are lead by a power hitting veteran in Salvador Perez, and have filled in around him with an array of homegrown talent. Bobby Witt is a star in the making atop the order. MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino are big time sluggers who also possess elite on base skills. The bottom of the order features some homegrown average talent and a handle of NRI that will give this team solid depth on offense. The rotation has seen a return of Zack Greinke to his roots. Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he can mentor Brady Singer who has some elite metrics. The rest of the staff is below average. The bullpen has Scott Barlow as the closer, and they signed Aroldis Chapman as trade-bait and to give him a chance prove himself after an awful 2022. Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont are both solid as well. Maybe I’m too high on the Royals (If 74 wins is being high on a team), and they’re likely a year and a few starters away from competing, but sometimes like those 2021 Mariners things happen quicker. Prediction 74-88

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have Javier Baez, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations in Detroit. Austin Meadows dealt with some personal demons and vertigo, but was a top prospect.  Riley Green and Spencer Torkelson were both 1st round picks, but haven’t yet taken the next step after making their debuts. They should both be improved this year. The great Miguel Cabrera farewell tour is also on for 2023, but he is a marginal contributor at best. Eduardo Rodriguez is the best arm in the rotation, but no one is going to be on any Cy Young radars without a guy who Ks a batter per 9 innings and no one projected for a Sub 4.00 ERA. Their two top young arms Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize are likely only going to be available late in the year if at all followng elbow surgery. The bullpen has Alex Lange who looks like a viable closer on paper and not much else. Prediction 70-92

AL Central Free Plays

Even though my predictions show the top three teams well under their win totals I am being conservative on my investment as I think this division is wide open and it’s probably likely one of them will break out. I tagged along a Kiev O’Neill thought on the Royals earlier this spring to win the division at +3000, and I would call +2300 closer to where it should be, but it’s the only value on the division if you want to go that route.

Cleveland Under 87 Wins .5 Units

Minnesota Under 84.5 Wins .5 Units

Chicago White Sox Under 82.5 Wins .5 Units

Kansas City Royals Over 69 Wins 1 Unit

Expected Bets For – Episode 36 – March 22nd, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for March 22nd along with several other topics.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Around the League
  • NHL Preview/ Picks – March 22nd, 2023
    • Pittsburgh Penguins @ Colorado Avalanche
    • Arizona Coyotes @ Edmonton Oilers

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NCAA Tournament – The Dirty South Bracket Round 3 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

San Diego State vs Alabama -8 O/U 136.5

What more can I say about Alabama?  They are playing some great basketball right now and seem very motivated.   San Diego State on the other hand took care of business pretty easily in their last game vs Furman, but seeing that they struggled vs Charleston, one has to be concerned.   Looking at the numbers in general, Alabama has the better offensive adjusted efficiency ranking 13th on haslametrics to San Diego State ranking 45th.  The Tide’s only weakness is turnovers being the fast pace team ranking 226th in the nation.  The Aztec’s weakness is going on cold spells shooting the ball and only ranking 199th in effective FG%.  Which team is going to come on top to cover the spread?   There are really no huge matchup advantages that Alabama has over San Diego State minus just having more sheer athleticism and Talent as you can see here.  The key for the Aztecs to winning this game is to go back and watch the tape on how the Tide was played vs Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Tennessee.   Slowing this game down and ugly-ing it up while playing great defense could put the Tide back on their heels.   They can’t give them open lanes and allow them to do what they want to do.   The big thing for me is that Alabama ranks number 8 in three point attempts.  San Diego State ranks 2nd in guarding the three.  Looking at Kenpom, he has this as a six point game.   Haslametrics has it at five while Bart Torvik has it at 3.6.   I am gonna trust those sites and grab the points here, but I would certainly hedge back for half around halftime if the price warrants a middle opportunity.

San Diego State +8 – 2 stars

Princeton vs Creighton -10 O/U 140

Sometimes teams just get going very late in the season.   Princeton might be one of those teams that are better than their efficiency ratings.   One thing that they do well is to slow the game down to a crawl while playing some great pack-line defense.   This is why Arizona could not get it going the last eleven minutes in the game.   This Princeton team looked to me to be a little more dangerous than people think.  This Ivy league team has two big men in Tosan Evbuomwan and Keeshawn Kellman who could create issues for Ryan Kalkbrenner.   The Blue Jays won’t have any large matchup advantages over the Tigers and the kicker for me is that I feel that they play very similar to Arizona who lost to Princeton in round one. 

Creighton has had some issues performing well away from home only ranking 320th in away splits on Haslametrics.  Princeton seems to perform very well as a dog at 6-1 ATS this season.  I could see the Tigers hanging around this game like they did so far and so well in this tournament.  Take the points.

Princeton +10 – 2.5 stars 

 

Podcast 24 – 23 – Erik Haslam – College Basketball NCAA Tournament Round 3 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a SWEET show for you today! Erik Haslam @Haslametrics comes on to break down the NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND 3!  First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our new MLB packages that are out this week!  Then, Erik comes on and the guys get right into their brackets as well as the full slate of SWEET 16 games with some Free Plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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After an underwhelming finish at the PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago, the Valspar came down to the wire. Taylor Moore (70-1) captured his first PGA Tour victory and gave us our third outright of the season! Two of our other selections, Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark also finished inside the top 5.

The PGA Tour’s version of March Madness is here. We head to Austin Country Club for the WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play event. This is one of the most controversial events of the year as viewers either love or hate this tournament. Given the changes that the PGA Tour schedule will undergo next year, this will be the last time that this event will take place.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: March 22nd, 2023 – March 26th, 2023
  • Location: Austin, Texas, United States
  • Course: Austin Country Club
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,108 yards
  • Format: Match Play – Bracket Style
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .100” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
  • Fairways: Perennial ryegrass / fescue blend overseed .400”
  • Rough: Tifway 419 bermudagrass 2”
  • Bunkers: 110
  • Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 7 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$3,500,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 550
  • Field/ Cut: 64 Players | Group Play – Match Play

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Pete Dye (1984)
  • Renovations: Rod Whitman (2015)
    • There was a full course bunker renovation and regrass-ing of tees in 2019

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship – RESULTS
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Pete Dye):
    • PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – The American Express
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage
    • TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic
    • TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship
  • Comparable Location (Austin, Texas):
    • TPC San Antonio – San Antonio, Texas – Valero Texas Open
    • TPC Craig Ranch – McKinney, Texas – AT&T Byron Nelson
    • Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, Texas – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Comparable Yardage (7,108 Yards):
    • Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) – 7,123 Yards – Fortinet Championship
    • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,125 Yards – The Honda Classic
  • Comparable Greens (Poa Trivialis overseed .100”):
    • TPC Sawgrass – TifEagle bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – THE PLAYERS
    • TPC Louisiana – TifEagle bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – Zurich Classic
  • Comparable Average Green Size (5,500 sq. ft.):
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 5,500 sq. ft. – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
    • TPC Deere Run – 5,500 sq. ft. – John Deere Classic

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Wednesday, March 22nd, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 2: Thursday, March 23rd, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 3: Friday, March 24th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Saturday, March 25th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM
    • NBC – 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 5: Sunday, March 26th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM
    • NBC – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM

 

Weather:

  • Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy 79 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 70% Humidity, 18% Chance of Rain
  • Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 11 mp/h S, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Mostly Cloudy 79 F, 10 mp/h SE, 60% Humidity, 19% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Mostly Cloud 78 F, 9 mp/h WNW, 46% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 9 mp/h ENE, 52% Humidity, 9% Chance of Rain

 

Format:

The field is divided into four groups ranking the players 1-64. Tier 1 is players ranked 1-16, Tier 2 is players ranked 17-32, Tier 3 is players ranked 33-48, and Tier 4 is players ranked 49-64. Sixteen different groups are randomly drawn and include one player from each tier.

Over the first three days (Wednesday through Friday), each player will play one 18-hole match against every person in their group. A match victory is worth 1 point, while a tied match is worth half a point. The winner of the group is the golfer with the most points who will then enter a 16-man single elimination bracket on the weekend. The round of 16 will take place on Saturday morning with the advancing eight golfers competing again later on that day. The semifinals are on Sunday morning with the finals and third-place match taking place on Sunday afternoon.

 

Bracket:

If you would like to fill out an official bracket, you can do so here.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event was established in 1999. For the first two editions, it was referred to as the WGC-Andersen Consulting Match Play Championship and was held at La Costa Resort and Spa in Southern California.

In 2001, the tournament changed sponsorship and was renamed the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Along with the name change, the event was also moved to the Metropolitan Golf Club in Melbourne, Australia. The event was regarded as a failure due to the number of invitations that were turned down and returned to La Costa the following year.

In 2007, the event was played at The Gallery Golf Club at Dove Mountain in Marana, Arizona, and from 2009 to 2014 at the nearby Ritz-Carlton Golf Club.

In 2015 the tournament underwent a revamp, along with a sponsorship change, moving to TPC Harding Park.

Finally, in 2016, the event was moved to Austin Country Club where it was been held every year since. Dell, which is headquartered in the area, also took over the title sponsorship.

Just this month, the PGA announced that this would be the last edition of this event.

  • Most Tournament Wins:
    • 3, Tiger Woods (2003, 2004, 2008)
  • Largest Margin of Victory:
    • 9 & 8, Tiger Woods def. Stephen Ames (1st round, 2006 at La Costa Resort & Spa).
  • Longest Match:
    • 26 holes, Mike Weir def. Loren Roberts (1st round, 2003 at La Costa), Scott Verplank def. Lee Westwood (1st round, 2006 at La Costa)

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
  • Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 Yards (x4)
  • Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
  • Match Play History (All Events)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 64 players in the field at this year’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

  • Scottie Scheffler (+800) is the defending champion of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event. He’s coming off a win at the PLAYERS Championship where he captured his second victory of the year. In his ten starts this season, he has only finished outside the top 20 once.
  • Jon Rahm (+1100) has finished inside the top 10 in both of his appearances at Austin Country Club. In his most recent start, he withdrew at the PLAYERS Championship after suffering an illness. Rahm has three victories in his nine starts on Tour this year.
  • Rory McIlroy (+1100) struggled in his last start on Tour missing the cut at the PLAYERS Championship. Before that, he finished T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy won this event back in 2015 before its move to Austin.
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1800) has five top-20 finishes in his seven starts on Tour this year. He has yet to win an event since last year’s BMW Championship. His best finish in this event was back in 2018 when he finished 17th.
  • Max Homa (+2000) has won twice this season, the Fortinet Championship and the Farmers Insurance Open. In his last three starts on Tour, he’s finished inside the top 20 each time. His best finish at this event was back in 2021 when he finished 18th.

 

  • Previous Winners in the field:
    • Scottie Scheffler (’22), Billy Horschel (’21), Kevin Kisner (’19), Jason Day (’16,’14) Rory McIlroy (’15), and Matt Kuchar (’13)
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

  • Scottie Scheffler: 2/ 1
  • Matt Kuchar: 17/ 3/ 5/ 1/ 9/ 34/ 9/ 30/ 9/ 2/ 3
  • Kevin Kisner: 38/ 17/ 2/ 1/ 18/ 2
  • Mackenzie Hughes: 9/ 18
  • Brian Harman: 9/ 5/ 35
  • Will Zalatoris: 28/ 5

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

  • Sungjae Im: 42/ 35
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 56/ 60
  • Keegan Bradley: 17/ 33/ 33/ 52/ 36/ 40/ 35

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler
    • Price: 18-1
  • 2021: Billy Horschel
    • Price: 90-1
  • 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Price: N/A
  • 2019: Kevin Kisner
    • Price: 80-1
  • 2018: Bubba Watson
    • Price: 50-1

 

Picks (Outright):

Given the unpredictable nature of this event, I’m going with a small card this week.

  • Jordan Spieth (+2500) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Xander Schauffele (+2500) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Will Zalatoris (+3300) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
  • Jason Day (+3300) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.14 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

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