Belmont Park Thursday, May 11th, 2023
Let’s get a little late afternoon horse action on this Thursday. Now I will state now before you dive into my article, it’s fairly chalky. Meaning, it looks like there could be quite a few favorites winning on this card. If you’re looking for monster payouts this is probably not your day, if you’re looking to cash some tickets and build your bankroll, LETS GO! I believe I have encountered some ways to make us money today, with fairly small multi-race bets keying these favorites.
I will most definitely have Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Articles available for purchase next Friday and Saturday! Be on the lookout on how to get those in the coming days.
Race 1: Picks: #5-7-1
Win #5
DD 5-6
Pick 3: 5-6-3 *straight ticket*
I landed on one of the Wesley Ward first timers, #5 Chitarra. This 2yo filly race is on the grass not the dirt, very important. I’m sure the #1 his other FTS, will take more money than the #5. Irad is on her and she was purchased for 700k. All more of a reason to back the 5, his ‘other’ one wins more than not, and it’s usually good value. Her workouts improved once she left Florida and got to Kentucky. The 5F, 36.4 gate drill on April 14th tells me she has blazing early speed. She is 100% bred to run on the grass all day, the sire Advertise starts at a 30k sire price, but she was purchased for 360k. This filly has all the makings of being a runner and we should get good value. Back the #5 with a win bet and single her in the DD, but use 1,5,7 in the pick 5.
.50c Pick 5: 1,5,7/6/3/1,3,5/2,8
Total: $9
Race 2: Pick: #6
DD 6-3. *In order to make this play I will need it to pay $7-$8. So 5-2 or 3-1 and better.*
I landed on the heavy favorite #6 Bourbon Chase. Irad is back aboard and Pletcher takes the blinkers off. Don’t be concerned with his low % with blinkers off, in most cases it’s usually a last resort, but in this case this colt seems to need it in order to calm down. It will be his first time going over a mile and I don’t think it will be a problem. He’s second off a short layoff and should be fit to get the 8.5 furlongs. I will single him in all of my multi race bets.
.50c Pick 4: 6/3/1,3,5/2,8
$1.50 Pick 4: 6/3/3/2,8
Total: $6
Race 3: Pick: #3
Win Bet #3 *Need 4-5 or better.*
Not sure the price we will get on #3 Dreams of Tomorrow, but if we can get even money or better this is of extreme value. In no way can I see the lightly raced 6yo losing here. He’s faced much, much better and should find himself loose on the lead with there being zero early speed in this race. I will be singling him in all multi race bets.
Race 4: Picks: #1-3-5
Win/Place Bet #1
One of the tougher races here, can I really back a 5yo who won debut with a low % bug girl, for a low % trainer. Why yes I can. That debut was incredible, she looked like she was driving a car in the stretch. Now facing winners is going to be much tougher which is why I’m spreading here, but ironically she could be the value in this race. I don’t expect the public to bet her in this spot. There appears to be a vast amount of early speed here, I can see the jocks getting aggressive early. With the stretch out from 6 furlongs to 8, she shouldn’t be AS far back as debut, but this race could fall right into her lap. Let’s take a shot with the #1 here, also use the 3 and 5 in multi’s.
Race 5: Picks: #8-2
I have no plays in this race, as I don’t like the last. So I will pass on the late pick 5 and pick 4. I will use the two favorites though, #2 and #8 to close out the early pick 4 and 5.
Race 6: Picks: #5-6
My least favorite race on the card, I had 4,5,6 but they scratched the 4. So that leaves us with the 2 chalks. #5 and #6. I will not be making any plays on this race as well, just starting a pick 3 closing out to our best bet!
$1 Pick 3: 5,6/1,6,7/1
$2 Pick 3: 5,6/1/1
Total: $10
Race 7: Picks: A 1,7 B 6
Race 8: Pick: #1
STRONG Win Bet #1
This will be my best bet of the day, #1 My Sea Cottage. After his 3rd place finish on March 22nd of 2022, he got laid up until this past December. Where he broke his N2L tag in a dominating wire to wire performance from the rail, just like today. He draws the one hole, with virtually zero early speed in this race. After his win, he comes off of a pair of 3rd place finishes in this same class, in one he hopped at the break and still fought on for 3rd. His most recent performance, he didn’t make a clear lead until after they came out of the 1st turn going 23.3 then a blazing 22.4 2nd quarter. Hit the 3 quarters in 110 flat, and still fought on to get beaten ¾ of a length to Saffie Joseph 3 time winner Masterofthesenate. If this Mark Casse trainee gets loose on the lead with his nearest pursuers a bunch of 2/14, 2/24, 1/20 with a bunch of board hits type of horses, look out! Not to mention, in my opinion Jose Ortiz’s specialty is on the engine going long on the grass.
Race 9:
PASS
