We have a salty 2yo MSW here, but the good news is NO WESLEY WARD. There are many ways to go, but I have landed on #5 Cassius, trained by Rey Hernandez. A smaller Midwest guy, not a household name, but 13 winners out of 81 races this year at 16%. It looks like he has a nice colt here. A 100k Fasig-Tipton purchase last October out of Classic Empire whose progeny have done fairly well so far and have found success winning debut. The dam Prosperity is out of Tapit, who is out of Distorted Humor who have had excellent success winning debut as well. Combine all this with a 36.4 gate drill 3/34 April 27th, and a 48.4 gate drill 3/38 on May 11th, it looks like we might have a horse ready to fire. We should get some value here with his FTS% being at 7%, hence the 12-1 ML. Small play on the 5 here.
*Careful with this race, don’t go crazy here as these 2yo races are usually tough.*
Race 3: #6 East ShoreWIN
This is an intriguing N2L for fillies going two turns. I have come up with #6 East Shore. One of my stronger plays on the card. She gets back to a level I think she can win, and possibly wins easily. Her maiden score at CD last October was rather impressive. She didn’t break sharp, Martin rushed her up near the leaders, sat right off the pace most of the race, took the lead turning for home and drew clear. The connections thought a little too highly of her, went into a stakes race running in the back of the pack, but was won by Kentucky Oaks runner up Hoosier Philly. After two poor efforts in a OC100k/n1x, they now drop her in for 30 and face a cheap, small field. Draws a perfect outside post with tactical speed. Not to mention Romans has been hot as a pistol. Let’s hope these connections strike twice today! Singling the 6.
DD 6-5
50c Pick 3: 6/ALL/3,6=$8.00
20c Derby City 6: 6/ALL/3,6/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$25.60
Race 4: Pass, use the #5 or ALL for multi race bets
By far the toughest race on the card, I’m either hitting the all button here or singling the 5. He’s on a 2 year layoff and drops in for 10k. Tons of red flags for a horse who was on the up and up. The works are respectable, and even if he is 50-60% of what he used to be, that should clobber or at the least beat this field. I don’t trust him enough though to bet on him here straight. No Plays here.
DD 5-3
50c Pick 3: ALL/3,6/8=$8.00
50c Pick 5: ALL/3/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$32.00
Race 5: #3 Easy TimeWIN, #6 Legal Attack
There are some fast older horses here, but Cherie DeVaux has a 5yo out of Not This Time making his 2nd start off the layoff and 3rd start with blinkers, #3 Easy Time. Hernandez Jr. made a gigantic move on the turn last month at Keeneland, then hung late and caught by Vivar who exploded deep in the stretch. The cutback to 1 mile from 1 mile and 1/16 should hit him right in the head. Also throw in the #6 Legal Attack, who won his debut in the states going 6F in 109.4. Stretches out today to a distance he was successful at in Europe as a 2 and 3yo. 3-6 here.
DD 3-8, 6-8
50c Pick 3: 3,6/8/3,4=$2.00
50c Pick 4: 3,6/8/3,4/ALL=$20.00
Race 6: #8 Doubly BlessedWIN*Best Bet*
This will be my best bet of the day, #8 Doubly Blessed. Trainer David Vance claimed this 6yo off of Micheal Maker last July for 62.5k and was forced to put him on the shelf until this past February. In his 1st start this year, he ran in the slop going 6F a distance that’s a little too short for him, then was off a step slow to boot. In his 2nd start ready to roll, Bowen pushed him to the lead, got pressed all the way around and fought 8 time winning machine Allege all the way to the wire. The cutback to 7F is right up his alley, his record will show 2 starts off the board at this distance, but one was in a Hcp20000s, and the other the G1 Forego. If he can match his 1 mile race two back, I think he’s the winner today. There is a ton of early speed in this race, but this horse is fast enough early to not be too far back, and Corey Lanerie loves to save horse. We should get an honest price with there being many ways to go. Single the 8 here.
DD 8-3, 8-4
50c Pick 3: 8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$4.00
Race 7: #3 Cancel ThisWIN, #4 Code For Success
My top pick #3 Cancel This, appears to be too fast for them here. She has lethal early speed since they added the blinkers two back, yes she quit badly but she was out of condition facing a n2x field. Her last start in the correct condition she ran a tough 2nd in the slop, until quitting badly late, including drifting out. The cutback to 6.5 furlongs should be short enough for her to hold on. I believe the only filly that will be moving up late, is Vicky Oliver trained #4 Code For Success. Be sure not to leave her off of your multi-race tickets as she could hit at a monster price. Hopefully this is a Romans/Garcia double today! 3-4 here.
This is the strongest race on the card, but I want to take a shot with a price here, #1 Icarus. This 4yo gelding drew away from Barbers Road this past March at Oaklawn, who was an impressive next out winner. Was also his lone start going 9 furlongs. The next two starts he had to face Speed Bias and Seize The Night, then run in a 150k stakes race. I think this horse relishes the extra distance, draws the rail in a field with zero early speed, and has a fairly aggressive jockey early on. He should be near the lead and be able to sit a perfect trip. Be sure to include #3 Search Engine. Who has had some time off, been gelded since his last race and has had strong works. Also his one start at this level and distance were his career best. He could surprise here at a GIGANTIC price. For bigger tickets, include #5 Trident Hit and #9 Creative Minister. 1-3-5-9 in the nightcap.
*As always make these plays at your own risk, and make them for whatever amounts are suitable for you, this is how I would play them. Again good luck and have fun!
We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone @DougUpstone from @Docssports is back to break down some early NFL! First, Kiev does his NFC South divisional preview with a nice play on an under the radar bet! Next, Doug comes on and the guys get into some major league baseball for starters. Then, the guys get right into the NFL with some teams that should make the playoffs this year that missed last year, as well as some teams that made it last year that might miss for 2023. Finally, Kiev and Doug give some thoughts on every single division in college football with a few more FREE PLAYS! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Spencer Strider takes the helm for the Braves boasting a 2.18 FIP against Bobby Miller from the Dodgers whom is making has Major League Debut. Both teams rank 4th and 5th in wRC+ but the Braves have better pitching. This price is a bit high, but I think there is some value on the 1st 5 -.5 -140. It is hard for me to see the Braves dropping this one after the loss last night.
Brooks Koepka (22-1) wins the PGA Championship at Oak Hill! In addition to that, we also cashed T. Hatton Top 20 (+160) and T. Fleetwood Top 30 (+145)!
What an incredible week at Oak Hill. Brooks headlined the week as has now won five Majors including three PGA Championships. With that victory, it looks as though he’ll be in contention to represent the United States in the Ryder Cup this year.
It also wouldn’t be fair to leave out Michael Block, who has become an overnight sensation. He finished tied for 15th which is the best finish by a club pro at the major in nearly four decades. The head pro at Arroyo Trabuco Golf Club in Mission Viejo, California, has received a sponsor exemption and will play in this week’s event. He’s currently 600-1 on Pointsbet to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.
We now head to the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Jordan Spieth will return to Texas for the first time this season after withdrawing from the AT&T Byron Nelson due to a wrist injury. He played fairly well last week at the PGA Championship finishing tied for 29th. However, you could tell that he’s still dealing with some issues. Speith has some incredible course history at Colonial so we’ll see if that can get him back on track after an up-and-down season.
World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who went to college at the University of Texas, lost in a playoff in last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge to Sam Burns. He’s been great this season with two wins already under his belt and is coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Scheffler has also played well in Texas this season finishing T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open, 4th at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event, and T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Sam Burns captured his fourth PGA Tour victory here at Colonial last year and will look to defend his title. However, he comes into this event in poor form missing the cut in his last two events. Burns does have one win on the PGA Tour this season which was at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event (Austin CC – Austin, Texas).
Min Woo Lee of Australia and Ryan Fox of New Zealand, also earned Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour after their finishes last week and will both be in this week’s field.
The tournament was founded 76 years ago in 1946. It’s the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation became the event’s title sponsor starting in 2019. Their current deal is slated to expire after next year’s event.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
Colonial Country Club hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS (1975).
After the tournament is over, Colonial Country Club will undergo an extensive 20 Million dollar renovation. It was scheduled for 2022 but due to supply chain issues, the process will begin after this year’s event. Gil Hanse will oversee the project who has previous experience renovating a Perry Maxwell design (Southern Hills). Hanse was also in charge of the Los Angeles Country Club renovation which will be the venue for the U.S. Open later this year. The project will “address every aspect of the golf course infrastructure” which includes a new irrigation system, new bunkers, tees, turf, and green complexes.
Colonial also has a unique tradition known as the Champion’s choice in which the former champions select two deserving young players, who otherwise would be ineligible, to compete in the tournament. Cole Hammer and Pierceson Coody are the two Champion’s choices this year.
Most Tournament Wins:
5, Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959)
72-Hole Record:
259, Zach Johnson (2010)
18-Hole Record:
61, Keith Clearwater (2nd round, 1993), Lee Janzen (4th round, 1993), Greg Kraft (3rd round, 1999), Kenny Perry (3rd round, 2003), Justin Leonard (4th round, 2003), Chad Campbell (3rd round, 2004), Kevin Na (4th round, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Colonial Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 1, No. 2, & No. 11.
In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,209 yards. It ranks 22nd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 4th of 46, with the average fairway width being 28.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 84 bunkers which ranks as the 13th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 13, & No. 16, range between 190 yards and 247 yards. At the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.
No. 4, 247 Yards, Par 3: This is the longest of the par 3s. The elevated green is difficult to hold. This is the only par 3 that has not yielded a hole-in-one during the 62-year history of the tournament. Last year, this was the toughest par 3 with only 24 birdies compared to 87 bogeys.
Seven of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 387 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 483 yards.
No. 3, 483 Yards, Par 4: This is the beginning of Colonial’s “Horrible Horseshoe” — the three most difficult holes on the golf course. The long dogleg left requires a perfectly placed tee shot around a large tree and bunkers. A long approach shot makes birdies rare.
No. 5, 481 Yards, Par 4: This is the hardest hole, and the most famous, at Colonial and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise — there’s a ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long, narrow approach. Last year, this was the toughest hole on the course with a scoring average of 0.302 strokes over par.
The two Par 5’s are No. 1 playing 565 yards & No. 11 playing 635 yards.In 2022, both of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 1, 565 Yards, Par 5: Off the tee, players will try to aim up the right side of the hole to avoid the fairway bunkers along the left. If they’re able to do so, they’ll have a wedge in allowing them a chance at birdie. Last year, this was the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of -0.461 under par.
No. 11, 635 Yards, Par 5: This is a narrow hole requiring a precise tee shot off the tee. Most players will not be able to reach the green in two. Instead, they’ll lay up around 125 leaving them a short shot in while avoiding the several fairway bunkers.
There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Seven of the world’s top 20-ranked players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+450) lost to Sam Burns in a Playoff last year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his other two appearances at Colonial Country Club, he missed the cut in 2021 and finished T55 in 2020. Last week at the PGA Championship, Scheffler made a late charge Sunday but wasn’t able to catch Brooks Koepka. He would go on to finish tied for 2nd. After finishing 45th to start the year, Scheffler has yet to finish outside the top 12 in his last fourteen starts. During that span, he has two wins which were at THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open.
Jordan Spieth (+1200) has some incredible course history at Colonial Country where he has only finished outside the top 15 once in his ten appearances here. During that span, he took home the trophy in 2016. Last week at the PGA Championship, Spieth finished T29th struggling on and around the greens. Before that, he missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he was in great beforeor to that finishing 2nd at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the Masters, and T3 at the Valspar Championship.
Viktor Hovland (+1400) had a great week at the PGA Championship finishing T2. Unfortunately on Sunday, he played himself out of contention on the 16th, which cost him a chance at the Wanamaker Trophy. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020.
Tony Finau (+1400) struggled at the PGA Championship last week finishing T72. He lost strokes in every category outside of around-the-green. Before that, he finished T23 at the Wells Fargo Championship and won the Mexico Open. That victory was his second on Tour this year after he won the Cadence Bank Houston Open as well. This will be his eighth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week. His best finish was in 2019 when he finished 2nd, four strokes behind Kevin Na.
Collin Morikawa (+1600) finished T26 in the PGA Championship last week where he gained strokes putting for the first time in his last four events. Before that, he had missed the cut at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He’ll make his fourth appearance at Colonial Country Club with his best finish coming in 2020 when he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Sam Burns (’22), Justin Rose (’18), Kevin Kisner (’17), Jordan Spieth (’16), Chris Kirk (’15), Zach Johnson (’12, ’10), Rory Sabbatini (’07)
Notable Withdraws:
Kieth Mitchell (Undisclosed), Taylor Montgomery (Undisclosed), Parker Coody (Prior Commitment), Adam Svensson
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Sam Ryder: MC/ MC/ MC
Luke List: MC/ MC/ MC
Sepp Straka: MC/ MC
Cameron Percy: MC/ MC
Erik van Rooyen: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Sam Burns (-9)
Price: 30-1
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
Price: 60-1
2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
Price: 70-1
2019: Kevin Na (-13)
Price: 70-1
2018: Justin Rose (-20)
Price: 20-1
Picks (Outrights):
Tony Finau (+1400) – FanDuel/ BetMGM/ Caesars
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Finau has already won twice on Tour this season including the Mexico Open, and the Cadence Bank Houston Open (course comp). He struggled at the PGA Championship finishing T72 but heads to Colonial Country Club, a place where he’s had success before. However, when he won at Memorial Park he missed the cut in his previous event so I’m hoping for a similar bounce back this week.
In his seven appearances at Colonial, he has yet to miss the cut. In his last four starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s finished 2/ T23/ T20/ T4/. While his approach game was sub-par last week, he has been great this season otherwise ranking 5th in SG: Approach. This was also the first week he’s lost strokes in that category all season. Finau also ranks well in another key category this week SG: Tee-to-Green (4th). While he’s lost strokes on the green in his last two starts, he has gained strokes putting at Colonial in five of his seven starts here.
Viktor Hovland (+1600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Hovland’s coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Despite a great finish, he has to be feeling like he let it get away a bit after that blowup on 16. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge.
This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020. Hovland ranks well in both SG: Approach (7th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (11th). His fault has been his play around and on the green. Luckily for him, SG: Around the Green hasn’t necessarily been a key factor in the path to victory. However, you do need to putt well at Colonial. The good news is that he has gained strokes putting in each of his previous two appearances here and he gained strokes on the green at the PGA Championship which has a similar putting surface.
Justin Rose (+3300) – FanDuel/ PointsBet/ Caesars
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Justin Rose has been trending in the right direction as of late. He’s coming off an impressive T9 finish at the PGA Championship. Before that, he finished T25 at the RBC Heritage and T16 at the Masters. Rose also captured his first win since 2019 earlier this year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He’ll make his tenth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week having won here in 2018 (Fort Worth Invitational). Since that win, he’s finished T58/ T3/ T20/ MC. Rose has been great with his irons this season ranking 33rd in SG: Approach. His play on the green has also been solid as he’s gained strokes putting in ten of his twelve starts this season. If Rose, can have a better week off the tee than last week, he should be in contention.
Rickie’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship where he struggled on the greens. Before that, he has five consecutive top-20 finishes. This is only his second missed cut of the season in addition to the Shriner’s Children’s Open. After that event, he was able to rebound finishing T2 at the ZOZO Championship. He doesn’t have a great course history here as of late but did finish T5 in 2012. Fowler ranks well in both SG: Approach (10th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (17th). If he can figure things out on the green, he should fair well this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Tommy Fleetwood is coming off a T18 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes in every category. He now has three consecutive top-20 finishes. In fact, he’s gained strokes in every category in each of those starts. Last year, in his only prior experience at Colonial, he finished T35. Fleetwood ranks well in both SG: Approach (26th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (9th). Given the form he’s in, I think he continues his run of top-20 finishes.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Cameron Davis (+110) – BetRivers
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Ryan Palmer (+190) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units
(Just Missed: Chris Kirk +110 – DraftKings)
Total Risk on Top 30s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 5.33 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
NFC NORTH: If you thought that the NFC North was a mess last year, prepare for a total train wreck this year. I see problems problems problems with every team here, and will have a hard time trusting any of them. Starting with the Vikings, this was the most overrated team in football from the 2022 season. The Packers lost Aaron Rogers and I am not even sure how bad of a thing that is just yet. The Lions are the favorite but they didn’t do a lot to fix their run defense, while the Bears are a huge question mark with a running quarterback that really hasn’t proven anything as of yet. The NFC North gets it easy playing the NFC South, but on the other hand, they also have to play the AFC West which should be pretty darn good this year. Let’s see what’s going on with these teams.
Who they drafted: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam Laporta, S Brian Branch, QB Hendon Hooker
Summary: Last year, the Lions should have made the playoffs over teams like the Giants, Seahawks and the Vikings in my opinion based on their overall strength itself. The best thing that happened to the Lions in the offseason was retaining their offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson. A few other things didn’t really pan out for them. Somehow, a few players on this team thought it was smart to bet on football and it costed three jobs including WR Quintez Cephus who as cut, and a lesser 6 game suspension for rising star receiver Jameson Williams. Maybe this team needs a guy to follow these players on their off days? Maybe at least a life coach or something. Apparently the Calvin Ridley suspension didn’t teach them a lesson. Anyways, I like what the Lions did in the draft for the most part, but it could have went better had they decided to beef up the interior defensive line. I do like Safety Brian Branch picked in the late second round, and he should be an impact player immediately coming inot the season. One also has to really like how this team finished the season last year under Dan Campbell. This coach looks like the leader that this team has needed for so many years. I think the season win total is correct at 9.5 for this team, and the Lions should make the playoffs.
MY Season Number: 9.4
Action: No Play
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 3.75
2. Minnesota Vikings –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 O -130
2022 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 8.32
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Philadelphia, vs San Francisco, @Cincinnati
Schedule Last year: Medium Easy
Key Losses: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, WR Adam Thielen, CB Patrick Peterson, ILB Erik Kendricks, TE Irv Smith, CB Duke Shelly, DE Za’Darius Smith
Key Additions: DC Brian Flores, TE Josh Oliver, CB Byron Murphy, DE Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry
Who they drafted: WR Jordan Addison, CB Mekhi Blackmon, CB Jay Ward
Summary: The Vikings were the luckiest team in football by far last year over-achieving their Pythagorean win total by a whopping 4.68 games. Somehow this team won 10 out of 11 one score games which is insane to me. My big problem with them is that their schedule will be going from pretty easy to a 1st place schedule rated at pretty darn hard. The at large games here are absolutely brutal vs the Eagles, Niners, and Bengals. Another issue that I have with this team is that they really did not draft well in my opinion. I feel that the Vikings needed to get better at linebacker and interior defensive line in order to stop the rushing power of the NFC North. The Vikings also ranked 21st in sacks which was pretty low. Picking up Dean Lowrey and Marcus Davenport feels like more of a band-aid rather than a real solution. This is why I do not understand the Jordan Addison draft pick. The biggest change that I failed to mention in my podcast was the hiring of former head coach and now DC Brian Flores. Maybe he can bring some attitude to this defense, but they will be keeping the same 3-4 scheme. I expect to see a very aggressive blitz heavy defense that will either make A lot big plays or give up big plays. I don’t think that the personnel is there yet so I am very skeptical. Why not get some more help where you need it? In saying all that, this team still has a ton of talent on offense, and if Cousins can stay upright, this team should get to about 8-9 wins in this easier NFC North division.
My season number: 8.16
Action– Strong
Vikings Power Rating: 1
3. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 7.5 juiced to over -135
2022 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 5.09
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Washington, @ Cleveland, vs Arizona
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, T Riley Reiff, DT Armon Watts, WR Byron Pringle, C Sam Mustipher
Key Additions: WR DJ Moore, ILB Tremaine Edmonds, G Nate Davis, DE DeMarcus Walker, LB TJ Edwards, RB Travis Homes, TE Robert Tonyan, DE Rasheem Green, RB D’Onta Foreman
Who they drafted: T Darnell Wright, DL Gervon Dexter SR., CB Tyrique Stevenson, DL Zach Pickens, LB Noah Sewell and a bunch of long shots.
Summary: Hitting the Bears under 6.5 wins last year was easy like Sunday morning. Now there seems to be a ton of optimism in the market jacking the Bears all the way up from worst place in the league to close to the middle at 7.5 wins. Feels like a lot. After trading Roquan Smith to the Ravens, the Bears defense became the worst in the league by far, and many of the guys who were playing wouldn’t even make an average team. The Good news for the Bears is that they were very busy in free agency getting proven linebackers like Edmonds and Edwards as well as drafting some defensive line talent. There are still holes at the edge as well as the safety position where Jackson is getting old, and Jaquan Brisker has some learning to do. They Bears are relying on the talent to come through early and I just do not know if that is possible. The biggest unknown besides Coach Eberflus, is the throwing ability of Justin Fields. Fields could run the ball quite well when forced out of the pocket, but he also was the worst passer in the NFL by far. Let’s hope that the acquisitions of Robert Tonyan, DJ Moore, and last year’s mid season trade to get Chase Claypool helps the Bears make some big plays. With the acquisition of Guard Nate Davis, and the drafting of Darnell Wright, there will be no more excuses for Fields and his throwing abilities. Being that the Bears have one of the easiest schedules in the league, I agree with the win total being set at 7.5, but I certainly would not bet the over.
My season number: 7.55 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: -2
4. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 7.5 juiced to the under -120
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.36
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs LA Rams, @ Pittsburgh, @ New York Giants
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: QB Aaron Rogers, WR Allen Lazard, DE Jarran Reed, DE Dean Lowry, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, FS Adrian Amos, K Mason Crosby
Key Additions: FS Tarvarious Moore
Who they drafted: Edge, Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, WR Jadyen Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, Edge Colby Wooden, QB Sean Clifford and a bunch of guys
Summary: A huge transition year for the Packers for 2023. This team really relied on only two quarterbacks since the early 90s and now the big question mark is if Jordan Love can actually play some ball. Being that the Packers have extended him for 22.5 million, it at least shows some confidence in the kid. One thing that is for sure is that the packers shed a bunch of older weight from their team which makes them rely on the youngsters at the skill positions. The good news for this team is that they return a lot of guys on defense, but they still could use some work against the run where they ranked 2nd to last in opponent rush EPA. Packer fans have to love some of the talent on this defense and this will be what the Packers lean on going into the 2023 season. I think that the most logical outlook that I have for this new Packers team is that they will have a very good, if not great defense with a slow moving run first offense that under bettors love so much. They will not ask too much of Jordan Love even though he has some decent receivers in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for May 22nd/ 23rd along with the Conference Finals.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – March 22nd, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers
NHL Preview/ Picks – March 23rd, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
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The Celtics head down to South Beach in a gigantic two games to zilch hole, but playing some better defense could lead to a more welcoming result for the Irish. The Heat have averaged 117 points in the first two games, while shooting 52% from beyond the arc in Game 1 and got a season high 25 points from Caleb Martin in Game 2. A lot of factors led to the over being 2-0 so far in this series. In game 1, both teams shot an extremely high % from the field, as well as a 7 game high in field goals made. Not to mention, Miami scored a whopping 46 points in the 3rd quarter. Then the pace definitively slowed down in game 2, yet the over scrapped and battled its way over the number. Including 36 fourth quarter points from the Heat, and 13 points in the final minute. Some might say, well it’s the final minute there are usually a lot of points, but not necessarily in a tight game. Which is what I foresee happening tonight. The last 4 match-ups between these two in Miami have led to under’s, and 2 of the 4 by a 20 point + margin. Point blank, Miami plays a physical, contested type of defense. They move the ball on offense at a snail’s pace, limiting possessions at both ends. Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have gone ice cold from downtown in this series, leaving all the work to Jason Tatum. I think this is going to be a slower paced game, with potentially a lot of bricks. All favoring the under. This will be a 2 unit play for me on the under, 214.
The 148th running of the Preakness Stakes takes place today at Pimlico Race Course. The Preakness Stakes is the second leg of the American Triple Crown of horse racing.
Mage (#3) will look to become the thirty-seventh horse to have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. If he’s able to do so, he’ll compete in the Belmont and try to become the fourteenth horse to win the Triple Crown.
Mage (#3) will be the only horse to run in the Preakness Stakes after competing in the Kentucky Derby. This is the smallest group of Derby horses in the race since the Triple Crown series went to its current format 54 years ago.
Bob Baffert, Trainer of National Treasure (#1), will make his first return to a Triple Crown race in two years. The last time he had a horse in the Preakness was Medina Spirit, two years ago. If National Treasure (#1) does go on to win, Baffert would break a tie with 19th-century trainer R. Wyndham Walden for the most Preakness victories in history.
Perform (#6) earned his berth in the Preakness with a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. His owners had to pay an extra $150,000 to get him in the field because he was not originally nominated for the Triple Crown series, but trainer Shug McGaughey said they did not hesitate.
Preakness Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:
Post Position
Wins
1
12
2
12
3
12
4
14
5
13
6
16
7
14
8
10
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Odds
1
National Treasure
4-1
2
Chase the Chaos
50-1
3
Mage
8-5
4
CoffeewithChris
20-1
5
Red Route One
10-1
6
Perform
15-1
7
Blazing Sevens
6-1
8
First Mission
5-2
Horse Preview:
Name: National Treasure
Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC, and Donovan, Catherine
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
1
2
2023
2
0
0
1
2022
3
1
1
1
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
National Treasure has yet to find the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden back in September of 2022 in a 6 1/2 Furlong Sprint at Del Mar. Following that race, he would go on to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and 3rd in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After that, they shortened him up and dropped him in class but it wasn’t successful as he ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. In his most recent race, he finished 4th in the Grade 1 RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby. He’s shown some improvement in his last two races posting some impressive speed figures and his workouts have been great as well. One thing to note is he didn’t get a great trip in either of those last two races as he was bumped in both of them. John Velazquez has ridden him in four of his five career starts and will retain the mount.
Name: Chase the Chaos
Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Adam Ference & Bill Dory
Trainer: Ed Moger Jr.
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
8
3
2
1
2023
3
1
0
0
2022
5
2
2
1
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
Chase the Chaos has yet to win a graded stakes race in his eight career starts. In his most recent start, he ran 8th in the California Derby. He didn’t have a great start in that race but was never a threat. Before that, he finished 7th in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. His most recent win was three races ago in the El Camino Real Derby. That was the longest distance he ever ran and posted his best speed figure as well. While he did have success at a longer distance, I don’t think he has the speed to compete in this race. He’s also raced on a synthetic surface for the majority of his career. In his lone start on dirt, he failed to hit the board. Sheldon Russell will get his first career mount on this horse. TOSS
Name: Mage
Odds: 3-1
Owner(s): OGMA Investments LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
1
0
2023
4
2
1
0
2022
0
0
0
0
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
Mage is the morning line favorite coming off a win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. In that race, he posted his best speed figure. Before that victory, he ran second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He lost to Forte, who was the Kentucky Derby favorite but was scratched late. In his last two races, he’s lengthened out in distance and has had success. He’s also been more of a closer as compared to a front-runner. There’s not a ton of early speed in this race so it’ll be interesting to see how Javier handles him in this race. There’s not much downside to this horse after the performance he put on in the Kentucky Derby.
Name: CoffeewithChris
Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Salzman, Jr., John E., Wasserloos, Fred and Geruso, Anthony
Trainer: John E. Salzman, Jr.
Jockey: Jamie Rodriguez
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
12
3
3
2
2023
4
1
2
0
2022
8
2
1
2
Pimlico
1
1
0
0
CoffeewithChris placed 5th in the Federico Tesio Stakes in his last start behind fellow entrant Perfrom (1st). Before that, he ran second in the Private Terms Stakes. His last win was in the Miracle Wood Stakes which was run at a mile. In his two most recent races, he lengthened out and hasn’t had much success. He’s also yet to run in a graded-stakes race. There’s not much upside to this horse outside of him breaking his maiden at Pimlico. I’m expecting him to try and push the pace but I’m not sure he’ll be a factor outside of that.
Name: Red Route One
Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
9
2
2
1
2023
4
1
2
0
2022
5
1
0
1
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
Red Route One won the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his last start. He posted a career-best speed figure at a mile and an eighth. Before that, he ran 6th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after getting off to a slow start. In his two races before that, he ran 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. I don’t think he has the speed needed to compete in this race but could be a factor in terms of exotics. Joel Rosario will retain the mount after winning with him in his last start.
Name: Perform
Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Woodford Racing LLC, Lanes End Farm, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, and Edward J. Hudson Jr.
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: Feargal Lynch
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
2
1
1
2023
3
2
0
0
2022
4
0
1
1
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
Perform has won his last two races. In his most recent race, he won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park despite stumbling out of the gate. Before that, he won a Maiden Special Weight at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s lengthed out in both of those races and has become more of a closer. While his speed figures have improved, they are a concern. His workouts have also been an encouraging sign for this horse as well. I’m not sure he can win this race but I’ll most likely add him to a few exotics.
Name: Blazing Sevens
Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): Rodeo Creek Racing LLC
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
2
1
1
2023
3
2
0
0
2022
4
0
1
1
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
Blazing Sevens finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes behind two Kentucky Debry entrants. Before that, he ran 8th in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes after being bumped at the start and was never a factor. His last win was four races ago in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. This horse is certainly a factor in his race given his ability to close. His last two workouts were also great so that’s another added factor. He’s also done well with a wet surface before so if that forecast does hold and we do get some rain, watch out.
Name: First Mission
Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Brad Cos
Jockey: Luis Saez
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
1
0
2023
3
2
1
0
2022
0
0
0
0
Pimlico
0
0
0
0
First Mission has only raced three times in his career. In his last start, he won the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. In that race, he posted an impressive speed figure. Before that, he won a Maiden Special Weight at Fair Grounds. He’s shown a liking to the increase in distance winning both those races at a mile and a sixteenth. If he can get out of the gate clean, he is the horse to beat in this race.
Projected Pace:
Front Runners
CoffeewithChris (#4)
Off the Pace
First Mission (#8)
National Treasure (#1)
Middle/ Back of the Pact
Mage (#3)
Blazing Sevens (#7)
Chase the Chaos (#2)
Perform (#6)
Closers
Red Route One (#5)
Picks:
Exacta ($1 -> $5):
(#1 National Treasure) / (#3) Mage, (#4) CoffeewithChris, (#5) Red Route One (#6) Perform, (#7) Blazing Seven
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We are back for the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico race track in Baltimore Maryland. This race is a mile and 3/16th long which is above average, yet the shortest of the triple crown races. The field here in the second leg of the triple crown is now seven horses deep with only one horse returning from the Kentucky Derby with his win in Mage. The co-favorite First Mission, A Brad Cox horse, was scratched due to a bum ankle. This scratch will significantly change the early odds listed here for this race, but that doesn’t mean that we do not have a chance at a decent score.
HORSE
ODDS
PROGRAM #
PROJECTION
Mage
8-5
3
Key
First Mission
SCR
8
SCR
National Treasure
4-1
1
Key
Blazing Sevens
6-1
7
Use
Red Route One
10-1
5
Use
Perform
15-1
6
Key
Coffeewithchris
20-1
4
Use
Chase The Chaos
50-1
2
Use
Today’s weather at Pimlico race track looks pretty good considering it might rain late in the day. Even if it does, it shouldn’t mess up this track so much that it would become muddy.
Going down the line, my number one horse that I am keying in on is the one horse in National Treasure at early odds 4-1. This Bob Baffert horse was the co-favorite in the Santa Anita derby. He was bumped pretty hard coming out of the final turn at SA Derby, and I think that he has the speed to just keep on going in position 1. National Treasure will have the blinkers on today which could be a good thing in this spot. He should set the pace for this race. The next key horse for me is the number three horse and Kentucky Derby winner in Mage at 8-5. This thoroughbred is a closer and has done nothing wrong. I am not overly impressed by the strength of this field here that he has to beat today at Pimlico. My final key horse is the six horse in Perform at 15-1. He will probably close around 8-1, but he has a good enough price for me to get behind. Perform is a Shug McGaughey horse that would not be put into this position unless he could win. Perform has won the last two of his races, and has looked pretty good in doing so. He doesn’t have the speed figures to put him at better (or worse) odds, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t take a big step today in Baltimore.
Now there is a horse that really doesn’t belong in this field in Chase The Chaos. This horse has only found success early at Canterbury Park in Minnesota, and after that on artificial turf. This is a big change for him going back to dirt, and this horse looks very inferior to the rest. In saying that, with a seven horse field, his price is just too good to not put at the end of your trifecta plays. Here is how I am betting this race. You can go half if this is past your unit size.
Happy Horse Racing Saturday everyone. We’ve reached the second leg of The Triple Crown from Pimlico Raceway in Baltimore to see if Mage can capture the first two races and give us some drama heading to Belmont.
I am including picks here for the first 13 races on the card, if you’re playing the last stakes race and the late local card you’re likely drunk and chasing or an absolute die hard. (I’ll be playing them) The weather looks great so track conditions should be fast. The races get started early at 9:30 AM CDT so West Coasters make sure you set your alarms. I’ll give you my pick to win with a brief analysis and my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.
Race 1 – Allowance – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse:$60,000 – Post Time 9:30 AM CDT
We kick the day off with some minimal winners in a turf sprint. I landed on the 5 Monster Mason with the hope that if he can clear the gate and hang with the early leaders. The horse has been wildly inconsistent, but has top speed ratings that rival the favorites and has better late pace than most of the field.
Win: 5 Monster Mason
Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-3-2-1
Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $64,000 – Post Time 10:05 CDT
Nice big field here for an early long race on the dirt. The favorite 5 Iywaan has certainly had the most trips into victory circle in the field, but is a closer and has had more success when he hasn’t had to push to keep up early. He hasn’t been able to rally from sub 48 1/2 Mile trips. I expect 3 Be Better and 7 Tate to push the pace on this one and it may be too much for the favorite. 3 Be Better has been better at this longer two turn distance as well and performed well on a muddy track last time and should be even better on this fast track.
Win: 3 Be Better
Top 4 if playing exotics: 3-7-5-6
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $57,000 – Post Time – 10:41 CDT
Not a ton of history in this group of Maidens. This one feels wide open. I like the 10 He’s Got Swagger to strut to a victory after just missing in a fast paced trip at Churchill on Oaks Friday.
Win: 10 He’s Got Swagger
Top 4 if playing exotics: 10-5-4-13
Race 4 – The Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored By Brandon and Diannah Perry To Benefit The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 11:16 CDT
The first stakes race of the day is a mouthful and also the first of three appearances by a Bob Baffert horse the 4 Arabian Lion who opens as a big 2/5 Favorite. The 4 gets Lasix for the first time and comes in after giving scratched Preakness hopeful First Mission all he could handle at the G3 Lexington Stakes. He takes a step down in class here and should be able to take care of this field. Only worry is that he has struggled in the stretch both times he has had Johnny V in the saddle. Hoping they have it figured out here. I’m all chalk here so only way to make money is probably to play the exacta’s or put him into a multi-race play.
Win: 4 Arabian Lion
Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-6-3-1
Race 5 – Allowance – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $60,000 – Post Time 11:51 CDT
One stakes race at a time I guess as we go back down here. The ladies take center stage and it looks like we should see some early speed from 8 Cecilita and 9 Lifelovenlaughter as they try and get to the front from the outside. The 9 has some interesting metrics, but will be making her 3 year old debut against some older horses here. I think the early speed benefits the 6 Tequilera who was ridden slow last time out and couldn’t answer in deep stretch against horses who still had something left in the tank. Also watch the 7 Amani’s Image who comes back to distance after a one race sprint warm up in 2023. She had a 1:44 Flat trip at this distance last year.
Win: 6 Tequilera
Top 4 if playing exotics: 6-7-8-2
Race 6 – The Chick Lang Stakes Presented By Case Tractor (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 12:29 CDT
A small field dirt sprint here. Another Baffert Horse and another big favorite in the 1 Havnameltdown. He almost won the Saudi Derby when stretched out to a mile and already has a G2 and G3 victory under his belt while winning 4 of 5 out west. I think this horse is beatable though as the speed he’ll see here even from this small field is better than his last few trips. There will be strong pace up front here from the 2 Ryvit and 3 Frosted Departure. The 3 ran well in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day event after being bumped at the start. The best time at this distance is held by the 5 Super Chow, but he hasn’t seen the early speed coming his way either. This one is wide open folks. Whoever gets the best trip inside likely pulls this out.
Win: 2 Ryvit
Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-3-1-5
Race 7 – The Galorette Stakes Presented By Pepsi Zero Sugar (G3) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 1:08 CDT
Back to the ladies here in a G3 Turf race featuring some solid international visitors. Graham Motion has 3 horses in the race including the 2 Sopran Basilea (IRE) who was a G2 winner in Italy. She’s been off since October, but is in a barn who has hit 11 of the last 27 coming off layoffs between 6 months and 1 year. The 6 Bipartisanship (GB) who is also with Motion put up a fast time at this distance last trip at Keeneland. Chad Brown trained 1 Whitebeam (GB) lost by a neck in her American debut in a really slow paced trip, and should improve here with some acclimation.
Win: 2 Sopran Basilea
Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-1-6-5
Race 8 – The Dinner Party Stakes Presented By Bulleit Bourbon (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 1:49 CDT
The 1 Atone showed up and closed big time to win in the G1 Pegasus World Cup in January, but then floundered in the G2 Muniz in March. He has had some rough starts, but does seem to bounc back. The 4 Hurricane Dream finished 10th in that same Pegasus race, but dominated a recent allowance. Another 3 entry race here for Graham Motion, but I think Michael Maker and 1 Atone when on their best is clearly the one to beat here.
Win: 1 Atone
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 1-4-2-7
Race 9 – The Skipat Stakes Presented By Old Bay (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 2:31 CDT
Wide open ladies dirt sprint here. We should see the 5 Princess Kokachin go to the front right away with the hope of wiring the field as she did her last trip with Jevian Toledo on board. We should see the 3 I’m the Boss of Me join her at the front. I think those two will get tangled up too fast right away and let the 6 Gunning, 2 Beguine, and 9 Olivia Darling make a late move. 6 Gunning is the older half sister to Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
Win: 6 Guinning
Top 4 If Playing Exotics : 6-9-2-5
Race 10 – The Jim Mckay Turf Sprint Stakes Presented By Guinness – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:12 CDT
Well…the race sponsored by Guinness has a horse named 13 Beer Can Man. That’s all were gonna say about that horse. The 6 That’s Right will lead them out to something 21 and change and should be followed closely by favorites 1 Nothing Better and 3 Artemus Citylimits. They will be flying out the gate and I think that sets up nicely for the 5 Smokin’ Jay (Owner has gotta be a Packers Fan right). He put up his fastest time following a sub 21 1/4 two trips back and should get the same ride here with a big chance to close.
Win: 5 Smokin’ Jay
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 5-1-3-10
Race 11 -The Maryland Sprint Stakes Presented By Big Ass Fans (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:53 CDT
The 8 Straight No Chaser will be gunning for the early lead from the outside as he did last trip with Johnny V who rode him wire to wire for a solid 1:09 Flat at this same distance. The favorite is the 7 Nakatomi, who hasn’t run his best yet this year and could certainly stall the 8 and the 10 Wondrwherecraigis from getting that early jump. If he does he could keep a pace to his liking. I like the idea of one of those further outside being able to wire this field though.
Win: 8 Straight No Chaser
Top 4 If Playing Exotics: 8-10-4-7
Race 12 – The James W. Murphy Stakes Presented By Four Seasons Of Baltimore – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 4:51 CDT
Playing favorite here as 9 Nagirroc looked good last time out trailing Mo Stash for a 2nd at Keeneland. He adds blinkers here from the outside and should find himself in a nice stalking position from the outside. He has plenty of speed to close on the rest of this underwhelming field.
Win: 9 Nagirroc
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 9-1-4-5
Race 13 – The Preakness (G1) – 1 3/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse 1,500,000 – Post Time 6:01 CDT
Well here we are the second race of The Triple Crown The Preakness. In what has become a trend many Kentucky Derby Horses who did not win are skipping the Preakness to get a rest and tune up for either the Belmont or another stakes race. This however is the first time there is only one entrant from the Derby entered in the race. I’ve had to pivot here as I was originally on the 8 First Mission. He has been scratched with a hind leg injury. Bob Baffert is back as his two year suspension in Triple Crown races has come to an end, and his horse the 1 National Treasure comes in as the second favorite. He came in third at The Breeders Cup Juvenile to Forte and Cave Rock and certainly has the style and stamina to win this race. He will be looking to upset Kentucky winner 3 Mage. The 3 is a stalker and has done it well his last two times out. He’ll have to move a little quicker here with the slightly shorter race. Steve Asmussen’s 5 Red Route One and Chad Brown’s 7 Blazing Sevens are also stalkers like 3 Mage, but in the big races so far they haven’t really threatened. They’ll need a really hot pace up front and I don’t think they get it. 5 Red Route One did get a win in smaller stakes race last time out in a step down in class. I think Forte is the best juvenile in the country and 1 National Treasure showed to be almost his equal as did 3 Mage. 1 National treasure should come out to the lead with blinkers and the rail. 3 Mage will be more in touch with the pace and lead and shouldn’t have to come as wide as he did in the Kentucky Derby. This is a two horse race for me, but I think 1 National Treasure finally puts together the whole run he’s been waiting for and Baffert and Johnny V get it done here.
