We have an great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to recap a big weekend in March Madness as well as a first look into the sweet 16! We have some good info and some FREE PLAYS! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
AL West
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
Houston Astros -225/ 96.5 (Offline currently due to Altuve Injury)
Seattle Mariners +285/ 87.5
Los Angeles Angels +725/ 81.5
Texas Rangers +725/ 82.5
Oakland Athletics +7500/ 59.5
Houston Astros
The Astros won their second World Series title in 2022, but the gap has been closing in this division as they look to repeat. The Astros lose Justin Verlander to Free agency, but they have all homegrown talent stocking the rotation to a solid level. Framber Valdez emerges as the ace of the staff with Christian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy slotting in behind him. Lance McCullers is hurt currently so prospect Hunter Brown may start the year as the #5. The bullpen is a huge strength for this team with Ryan Pressley shutting the door and Rafael Montero and Hector Neris getting him the ball. The lineup should be improved with the addition of Jose Abreu in the off season. Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman will be atop the order with Yordan Alvarez hitting cleanup. Alvarez can’t seem to avoid the injury bug and has been sidelined once this spring already. The rest of the lineup is sub-par. Look for the Astros to surely take a step back in victories in 2023. Prediction 89-73
Seattle Mariners
I think the Mariners can compete this year with the Astros as they should come back to the M’s. They lost Mitch Haniger to the Giants and Adam Frazier to the Orioles, and they sent Jesse Winker to the Brewers, but overall I think this lineup is in better shape than 2022. With superstar Julio Rodriguez anchoring the lineup. They’ve added Teoscar Hernandez for some protection. Mix in Kolten Wong joining from Milwaukee and it is definitely upgraded. Cal Raleigh is a top offensive option at catcher. The biggest question mark is if Jarred Kelenic can finally transfer his AAA success to the big leagues. He has homered at both levels hitting 21 Big league Homers the last two seasons and 27 at AAA. The issue is his strikeout percent which sits over 30% in MLB vs being under 20% in AAA. Because of that his average is .294 at AAA and only .178 in MLB. If he gets it together lookout. The Staff is anchord by Luis Castillo who came over at the deadline last year. He is followed by Robbie Ray and two 1st Round homegrown arms in George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The Bullpen features Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz, but is solid top to bottom. Look for them to finish very similar to last year, but maybe 3-4 wins better if Kelenic can figure it out. Prediction 88-74
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are going to score runs in 2023. They added Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury this off season which gives them seven players that should hit for 20 Home Runs to start off their lineup. Shohei Ohtani is a once in a lifetime talent as a staff ace and 30 Home Run talent. Mike Trout is getting older, he’ll turn 32 this year. The talent is still there, but lately his health hasn’t been. Trout has averaged just 69 games per season since 2020 (Covid included) The rotation will be a 6 man rotation when they go six days in a row. They added Tyler Anderson who reinvented himself last year across town. Patrick Sandoval is a solid number three, but the bottom of the rotation is not going to win them many games. In fact there was a stretch last year where the Angels went four times through the 6 man rotation without winning a game started by anyone but Ohtani. The bullpen is a quagmire with Carlos Estevez and Jimmy Herget liekly to close out games. The Angels are better. If they stay healthy they can compete. Prediction 86-76
Texas Rangers
The great question mark….Jacob Degrom. The Rangers paid 185 Million for 5 years to get him from the Mets. The best pitcher of the last five years has only managed to throw a combined 224.1 innings in the last 3 years. Will he get healthy in Texas? I wouldn’t bet on it. They also signed Free agent pitchers Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi who join Martin Perez and Jon Gray in the rotation. Jose Leclerc can be a solid closer if healthy. The lineup is solid at the top with Marcus Semien, Corey Seagar, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, but the bottom of the lineup is a bunch of retreads and unspectacular prospects. They will need to find some production in order to compete, but they should improve vs 2022 just based on the rotation upgrades. Prediction 81-81
Oakland Athletics
The A’s stink. That being said 59.5 means 102 losses is their starting point? I can’t see that. Ownership likely wants to keep this team in rebuild mode until they figure out their stadium situation either in Oakland or Las Vegas. They won 60 games last year, and while not greatly improved they shouldn’t be worse. They added trade bait Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson to the lineup. Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown provide some pop in the lineup. The rotation is made up of a few guys you’ve never heard of James Kaprielan and JP Sears. It’s awful. The bullpen is solid especially in the back end with Trevor May, Zack Jackson and Dany Jimenez. It is actually a better bullpen than a few contenders. I think they win a few more games than last year. Prediction 67-95
AL West Free Plays
This division got a lot better. There’s some value here and I’m dutching up the Mariners and Angels for a unit to knock the Astros off their perch.
Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL West
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
San Diego Padres Even/ 93.5
Los Angeles Dodgers Even/ 95.5
San Francisco Giants +750/ 81.5
Arizona Diamondbacks +3000/ 75.5
Colorado Rockies +6000/ 65.5
San Diego Padres
It’s time for a change in the West. The Padres added another piece signing Xander Bogaerts in Free Agency. They also have Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back from his injury and suspension. You may have forgotten, but he hit 42 bombs and stole 25 bags in 2021. The top of this lineup when healthy is going to be Bogaerts, Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. That’s scary good. The bottom of the lineup is average, but features plenty of veterans who can still swing the bat and create plenty of match-up issues for opposing pitching staffs. Yu Darvish anchors the rotation for the Padres, with Joe Musgrove as a solid #2. Musgrove is coming off an injury to start the season so the Friars are hoping Blake Snell can get a little deeper into games. His stuff has been great, but plenty of walks and deep counts. Josh Hader struggled in the second half last year, but is still one of the elite bullpen arms in the bigs. The rest of the bullpen is solid with 6 guys with a sub 4 ERA. I think this team could get to the top of the division in 2023. Prediction 94-68
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers lost a third of their starting lineup from a team that won 111 games last year. Trea Turner was the biggest loss, but Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger also moved on. They were replaced with JD Martinez and David Peralta which is a downgrade. Gavin Lux was going to takeover for Turner at Shortstop, but tore his ACL this spring so Miguel Rojas will get the nod. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are still in LA however, and Will Smith has emerged as a top offensive catcher. This team scored the most runs in the bigs last year and it wasn’t close. That won’t happen in 2023. Clayton Kershaw still has ace stuff, but his health is always a question. The Dodgers will need more from him with Walker Buehler being sidelined with Tommy John Surgery. Julio Urias is a solid #2. Dustin May is intriguing coming back from injury as he could be an ace in the making. Tony Gonsolin was great last year, but pitched way above his metrics and will start the year injured. The bullpen is solid, but they do not have an established closer on the roster with Kenley Jansen moving onto Boston. Evan Phillps and Brusdar Graterol will likely start the season closing games. LA lost a lot of talent and are one injury away from really having to fight for a playoff spot. Prediction 92-70
San Francisco Giants
The Giants were a .500 team in 2022. They lost Carlos Rodon in free agency to the Yankees, but most of the rest of this team returns intact and the Giants have a knack for reviving pitchers careers and I think they find a way to do that with Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those two will slot in the rotation behind Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. That gives the Giants 5 solid starters to eat plenty of innings in a great pitchers park. The bullpen has Camilio Doval and Taylor Rogers to shut the door in the late innings. What the Giants will need to find a way to do is put runs on the board. The only player that can steal bases in the top 9 is Thairo Estrada. Joc Pederson and recently singed Michael Conforto will be looked for to be the guys driving in the runs. Free Agent Mitch Haniger will join that duo if he can find a way to get healthy. Joey Bart is not the second coming of Buster Posey like the Giants were hoping, but Blake Sabol looks to be a solid option if needed. I think this team can take a step forward if healthy. Prediction 86-76
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes graduated a pair of exciting homegrown first round selections last year in speedster Jake McCarthy and all around star in the making Corbin Carroll. While they traded away Daulton Varsho, they got Gabriel Moreno in return to work behind the dish as well as Lourdes Gurriel. Christian Walker is a solid cleanup hitter who should ht around 30 Long balls. The rotation features ace Zac Gallen who is one of the top run limiters in baseball. Merrill Kelly is in the #2 slot, Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies are below average options behind them. There is some help coming as a few solid minor league options Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry will be up sooner rather than later. With Mark Melancon injured and also ineffective my money is on Scott McGough or Kevin Ginkel to close games out. The DBacks have 5 solid options at the back end. This team should be better than last year. Prediction 77-85
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies who only a few years ago were one of the most exciting shows in baseball have turned into a laughing stock. Especially the pitching staff. It’s hard to get pitchers to want to come to Denver, but they really aren’t even trying. German Marquez is the leader of the staff, but his ERA has been over 4.5. Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena, Austin Gomber and Connor Seabold are all far below MLB average as pitchers. The bullpen is intriguing in that it has Dinelson Lamet who if healthy could be a future closer or maybe even work his way into the rotation. Daniel Bard plunked Jose Altuve in the WBC and he has a history of being a head case and doesn’t know where the ball is going when he’s struggling. He will close if he can find the plate. The lineup will win them some games. They just signed Jurickson Profar who will likely lead off. Kris Bryant had a wasted year in 2022 with multiple injured list visits. If he’s healthy he will pair with CJ Cron to lead the offense. Ezequiel Tovar is an interesting power speed combo prospect who will get the nod at shortstop. The Rockies are in rebuild mode and not coming out of it anytime soon. Prediction 67-95
NL West Free Plays
Like I said, I think there is a changing of the guard here, but the Dodgers are still formidable. With the win totals favoring LA and the division futures being even, I don’t think there is a value at even money on the Padres to win the division. Instead we will fade LA on the wins total.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 95.5 Wins 1.5 Units
San Francisco Giants Over 81 Wins 1.5 Units
San Francisco Giants to make playoffs +180 .5 Units
Fresh off another 11 unit winning day yesterday, my 2nd in two weeks! Also up almost 40 units in just February and March!
This is my lone NBA play today. For all of my March Madness plays they’re located on my Twitter.
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Orlando at LA Lakers -5.5 (O/U 230) 9:30pm ET
I think this is the perfect spot to back the Lakers! For starters, they’re catching the Magic on a back-to-back, off a win and off a DAYTIME win, where Orlando is 6-0 ATS this season. For some reason Orlando has been tremendous in day games this year, the preparation is clearly different. I mean, they beat the Clippers who have played tremendous basketball as of late. Now on the other hand, the Magic have immense trouble putting together back to back solid games, where they are 0-7 ATS in their L7 following a victory.
The Lakers left New Orleans 5 days ago, winners in 8 of 11 and rolling. Then faced a back to back vs a Rocket squad surprisingly playing better as of late, but LA was without Russell and Davis. Then got hit with a buzzer beater vs the Mavericks 2 nights later. Now they’re losers of 3 of 4 and need a win badly! The Lakers are 7-1 ATS as 5-8 point favorites, and 17-8 against teams under .500, feasting on inferior competition.
I believe the Lakers will play with too much speed for Orlando, and have too deep of a bench. With the Magic giving up over 50% shooting recently, a category they excelled in for most of the season, they could be in for a long night!
Lakers -5.5 (BetMGM -115) 1.5 units
Good luck to anyone if you’re tailing this play! BUILD!
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Maryland vs Alabama -9 O/U 145.5 – Birmingham AL
What’s it gonna take to unseat the overall number 1 seed? Height and Athletes is the answer. Believe it or not, Alabama might play with a ton of speed, but they do not have much of a near proxmity advantage over Maryland inside as you see by the photo from Haslametrics. This is a very dangerous game for the tide and too many points.
Maryland +9 – 2 stars
San Diego State vs Furman -5.5 O/U 137.5 – Orlando FL
Wow did the Azteks get a lucky cover in the last game. So why are they only laying 5.5 points against a lucky Furman team over Charleston? Well, quite simply because Furman ranks pretty close to what Charleston does on the efficiency sites. The Aztecs have a pretty clear near proximity advantage over Furman ranking 42nd near the rim to 256th on defense for the Paladins. Furman can score inside as well, but they will be faced with length and a ton of the 9th ranked defense in the nation. Only one play makes sense here. THE UNDER. San Diego State’s pace ranks 253rd in the nation while Furman, who can play pretty fast in the weaker conference will concentrate more on the defensive side of the game.
Under 137.5 – 1.5 stars
Missouri vs Princeton -6.5 O/U 149.5 – Sacramento CA
I kinda wish that I could fade both of these teams here. I bet that the people who took Princeton think that they are pretty smart huh. Well, it’s safe to say that over 99% of them folks didn’t go to an Ivy league school. They say that Princeton won this game, but it certainly was a lot more that Arizona lost the game by scoring 6 total points with 11 minutes left in the game. Missouri’s press defense is going to fluster this team some, but at the same time, Missouri is terrible inside and at rebounding. The Tigers are a bit fraudulent in their last victory with Utah State going 4 – 24 from three point land. Princeton is tall inside and should be able to score some, but Missouri has some length themselves and will be able to fluster Princeton some. I have a premium play here on the total, but I also kind of like the points due to Princeton’s size down low.
Princeton +6.5 – 1.5 stars
Baylor vs Creighton -1 O/U 146.5 – Denver CO
A few weeks back, I might have liked Baylor to get to the final four, but now looking at how bad that defense has been, I do not think that they advance past Creighton. The Bears have some big disadvantages down low ranking 357th in near proximity defense as you see below from Haslametrics. The Bluejays have big advantages scoring near the rim with Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman. Creighton also ranks 12th in defensive rebounding which could turn out to be a key metric in this game. Gonna take Creighton here at Pickem.
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So far 4-7, -1.02 units. Let’s BUILD!
What a great slate of games today, tons of story-lines, tons of action, tons of tears and I’m sure as always tons of drama. It will be hard to beat the Furman buzzer beater yesterday, but as I have learned over the years, always expect the ‘unexpected‘.
Of the 16 game slate today I have narrowed it down to 7 games.
Starting with one of my top plays at 2:00pm ET, the Gaels.
Yes St. Mary’s burned me and many others in the Conference championship, but I expect Coach Bennett to have the squad fully prepared today to take down the A-10 champs. When I originally went through this game, I saw some staggering stats for the Rams, but as I dug deeper into them who were these great numbers against? St. Louis, Richmond, George Mason? Now don’t get me wrong they took care of business and you can only beat what’s in front of you, but their lack of non-conference competition will be the difference maker today. St. Mary’s lost 2 of their last 3, but to the Zags. Who they beat earlier in the season. I absolutely love this trend, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS off a loss of their L13 and are 6-1 off a DD loss at home in their L7. It’s culture and belief that make up these numbers. I think their stifling defense will be too much for VCU, and they come out of the gate rolling putting that Gonzaga disaster of loss in their rear view mirror!
Play(s):
1H: St. Mary’s -1.5 (FanDuel -115) 0.5 unit
St. Mary’s -4 (Caesars -110) 1.4 units
Let’s move on to the middle slate!
As I stated in my previous article, UConn is everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding. I beleive they take this game wire to wire and cover comfortably.
Play:
UConn -9 (BetRivers -110) 1.25 units
NC St will take on Creighton. This is my 2nd strongest play of the day, as well as my Best Bet upset in the Round of 64. While the Wolf Pack may be at a talent disadvantage, they surely don’t lack in SPEED and determination. Where I have seen Creighton be successful is point blank out shooting teams at an extremely high %, the second that % drops they turn into a different unit. These NC St boys force 13.4 turnovers per game. This will put the Blue jays completely out of rhythm and unable to gain the momentum needed to shoot NC St out of the gym. On the other end SPEED, SPEED and SPEED is what the Wolf Pack have, and they will look to use every ounce of it for this upset to move on. Where they have struggled, is against good defensive teams, Creighton is not that! Getting to the rim is the Wolf Pack’s specialty, and a department Creighton surely has struggled in. On 5 days or more rest, NC St is 5-1 in those games. When you give this squad extra rest, man do these guys fly around.
Play(s):
NC St +5.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
NC St ML +190 (DraftKings) 0.45 unit
We head to the 7:10 and 7:35pm ET slot, where Coach Calipari will take on former high recruit Bryce Perkins and the Friars.
While most remember Kentucky’s early exit in last year’s dance, the players have not forgotten either. Luckily for them Providence severely struggled down the stretch losing 4 of 5, 3 in a row and handily beaten in a few of them. Specifically vs Seton Hall on Senior Day. Whereas Kentucky appeared to figure it out down the stretch, with the exception of Vanderbilt who beat them twice in 3 games. They won the other 5, against quality teams such as, at Arkansas, vs Tennessee and Auburn. UK is going to hit the glass hard, get plenty of 2nd chance opportunities and will be able to get the ball out to their shooters. Providence could hang around, but in the end the Wildcats will have too much firepower to stay in the game.
Play:
Kentucky -4 (Caesars -110) 0.7 unit
25 minutes later, Grand Canyon takes on the Zags. As I stated before, the high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
Play:
Over 154 (DraftKings -110) 0.5 unit
Onto my final two plays of the day, including my Best Bet and 3 unit CRUSH!
FAU will move onto the AAC in 2023, so tonight they will get a little taste of what it’s like to play with bigger schools. The Owls won 31 games, took care of business and, well I don’t have a and. They had a cupcake non-conference schedule, with their 2 ‘tough’ games against UF and Ole Miss, only to split those. Tonight they take on Coach Hardaway who has plans of making it to at least the 2nd weekend. Fresh off their AAC conference title vs #1 seed Houston, Coach was right back in the video room studying the Owls. Memphis has locked it down defensively as of late, giving up 35.8% shooting, 26.5% from downtown, only 11 assists a game, as well as causing 15 turnovers per affair. This style will give the Owls fits on the offensive end and be the difference in this game!
Play:
Memphis ML -125 (Bet365) 3 units
At 9:55pm ET, the Hoosiers take on the defenseless MAC champs. OK Kent St doesn’t look that bad defensively, but playing the MAC night in, and night out can make any team with the ability look like superstars. Taking on at one point one of the better teams in the BIG TEN will be a tough ask. Indiana has the ability to turn it on at both ends, and while all their attention will be on TJD, stopping the rest of the Hoosiers will be extremely difficult.
Play:
Indiana -4.5 (FanDuel -110) 0.6 unit
Good Luck to everyone playing today, pick some winners, make some cash and hopefully I provided with necessary insight to crush today’s card!
It is not totally inconceivable to think the Owls can put up a fight in this 3/14 matchup. Xavier has an atrocious perimeter defense(281st in opponent 3pt FG%), while Kennesaw State knocks down their outside shots at a Top 50 rate in CBB. For all that Xavier does well offensively, they do turn the ball over nearly 12.5 times per game.
With that said, I have a hard time seeing the Owls being able to hold their own against a Xavier offense that’s knocking down nearly 40% of their outside shots and also thrives around the rim. Kennesaw State turns the ball over 12 times per game themselves.
I wouldn’t lay it here, but taking a shot with KenPom’s 3rd luckiest team that’s been off my radar wasn’t very appealing.
*Pittsburgh vs Iowa State(-4.5) O/U 131.5
Pittsburgh is fresh off a First Four victory just a few days ago and returns to the site of last week’s ACC Tournament in Greensboro. I trust the Panthers in this matchup regardless, but I think it’s an added bonus that their offense just passed the test of facing an elite Mississippi State defense.
Iowa State’s pressure style will take a lot of stale offenses out of games; the Cyclones force the 9th most turnovers per game in the country. That said, ball security is one of Pitt’s biggest strengths, as they rank Top 50 in turnovers/game. I’ve said for a while that Iowa State’s on-ball capabilities are quite overrated; this is a group that is 158th or worse in both opponent 2pt and 3pt FG%. Pitt is very capable of finishing around the rim, but Jeff Capel’s squad hangs their hat on the 3-ball, and for good reason(over 36% on the season).
Iowa State’s offense is incredibly mediocre; they play an ugly Half Court style and lack of aggressiveness from the outside. Teams can win this way, but it’s going to be hard to pull away with this style if you rank just 165th in 2-point FG% and 246th in turnovers/game. Pitt actually has a good 2-point defense but will allow good backcourts to have their way. Thankfully, I’m not too worried about Iowa State’s ability to take advantage.
There is another glaring disparity in this matchup that makes this a full game play. Iowa State gets to the Foul Line at a bottom 60 rate in the country but sends their opponents to the line at a Top 50 rate. From there, Pitt holds a MASSIVE 8.3% edge at the charity stripe. Free throw shooting always matters in tightly contested games, and it swings heavily in our direction with this play. Pitt +4.5 is my free play for today!
*Drake vs Miami(-2) O/U 146.5
There are certain aspects of this Miami team I really like(all offensively), but this “rat line” is more than warranted. Miami’s defense will assuredly be the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, and Drake has all the makings of a team ready to take advantage.
Drake is a balanced offense that can beat you in multiple ways. They shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc(32nd in CBB), can beat you closer to the rim, but perhaps most importantly, they turn the ball over less than 10 times per game. If you had to pick a strength with the ‘Canes on this end of the floor, it’d be their perimeter defense, but even then, they don’t rank in the Top 145 in either 3-point defense or turnovers forced per game. The ‘Canes are atrocious in the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 51.8% from 2-point on the season(261st).
Miami is a complete offense that lacks any weaknesses, but this Bulldogs attack they match up with is stiffer than what they’ve become accustomed to playing in the ACC. Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in America and won’t allow Miami to attack the glass. As far as on-ball capabilities, the Bulldogs rank 34th in 3-point defense and 63rd in 2-point defense. Miami has not been at full strength down the stretch run of the season, and I don’t think it’s inconceivable to think this group is off a step early in this game.
I would need Drake to be more disruptive defensively for me to trust them to get stops down the stretch of this game. With that said, the oddsmakers know what they’re doing with this line.
*Kent State vs Indiana(-4.5) O/U 140.5
It should be noteworthy that Indiana is only a slight favorite here in this 4/13 matchup. You could argue that Kent State brings the better defense into Albany tonight, and Indiana has had a jekyll-and-hyde ending to their season.
The Golden Flashes defend the outside shot at the 28th best rate in America and also force turnovers at a Top 20 rate. If Kent State can force this game into the hands of the Hoosiers’ perimeter players like Penn State did, I think they’ll have achieved what they wanted to. While Kent State is still good on the interior, they’ll have the misfortune of facing one of CBB’s finest players tonight in Trayce Jackson-Davis. Indiana has done a good job of not settling for outside shots this year and playing through TJD, and ultimately, I think this commitment to efficiency pays off tonight.
I’d be more interested in backing Kent State if they weren’t so average offensively. The Golden Flashes are more efficient on the interior, so I don’t understand why they attempt 3’s at a Top 100 rate when they make just 33.5% of these. Indiana is not a very disruptive defense, but their on-ball capabilities are still more than good enough to shut down Kent State in this matchup.
Liked this match up a lot when the brackets were released. However, numbers were not as favorable for Arkansas in the research as I had hoped but I have scouted a lot of teams in the last 2 days and I had already watched Illinois a lot.
Arkansas is the better team. They controlled most of the game vs Auburn but let the Tigers back into the game late but held on. They are just a couple weeks off of a 3 point loss at Alabama.
Arkansas is #29 in FG % in the nation.
Arkansas is not playing their best going into this tournament but they’ve beaten good teams like Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri and given the best team in the nation a fight.
Illinois has not won a game away from Champaign since January 28th.
Arkansas is just a little more balanced in their scorers.
These teams are very similar in a lot of numbers. To me, Arkansas is the better team based on the eye test. Small Play going with Arkansas today.
My 2023 NCAA® Men’s Bracket Games pool , The OddsBreakers, is back for another year on CBSSports.com. Visit the pool before the tournament starts so we can compete all of March Madness ® Please click here: Click here!
We have some slight modifications this year to scoring. The earlier games do matter more than before and we are giving away $500 in prizes to the top 4 finishers in this challenge. All you need to do is wright a 5 star review and take a screen shot and send it to INFO@TheOddsBreakers.com. If you already have the review then you can just retweet the podcast and send that screen shot in as well. 1st place will be $275, 2nd place will be $125, 3rd place will be $75 and 4th will be $25. Get your brackets in by Thursday before the 1st game at 12AM Eastern, 9AM Pacific! Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament!
