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The NFL 2023 1st round Mock Draft 1.0

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We are already coming up to the 2023 NFL draft this Thursday April 27th 2023, and my oh my do we have a lot of speculation this year without a lot of clarity.  Many of the mock drafts out there are projecting trades, and that is just something that I will not do.   Trades of course will happen, but it also doesn’t mean that they won’t get the guy that they like a bit later in the draft.  I am also gonna just flat out say that I recommend that most teams try and trade down some.  I am not a huge fan of taking shots and losing capital.  I prefer gaining capital and doing your homework.  College to NFL players do not have any guarantees with them, and looking at the past drafts have certainly shown a lot of top 10 busts.   My mock drafts are a little bit different than the marketplace as I like to say what teams “should” do from using my research, and then attempt to predict what teams “will” do based on their tendencies and the marketplace.   Here is how my predictions all lay out.  For our position totals in the first round, we have 4 quarterbacks, 1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 wide receivers, 5 offensive lineman, 10 defensive line/edge, 1 Linebacker, 6 Cornerbacks, and 0 Safeties.   We have 14 offensive players and 17 on defense.  Let the games begin!

Best Bet:  Defensive players drafted in the 1st round over 14.5 +150 (now +225)

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI)

Who they should pick:  Well, the Panthers already traded up for this huge pick and the certainly gave up a lot to the Bears with their 9th pick this year, a second round this year, a first round for 2024, and a second round for 2025.   Oh yeah..  Their best Wide Receiver in DJ Moore as well.   Now the way I see it is that none of the players this year is worth that trade, but now that is has been made, the Panthers should pick CJ Stroud.   Stroud has the size, strength and ability to perform very well in the NFL and he is the safest pick.  If you want to see a further break down on this, please see my NFL Draft 2023 Quarterback Rankings.

Mock Pick:   Bryce Young, QB, Alabama.   I think that it is pretty clear that the ownership all the way down to coaching wants a winner, and Bryce Young is heavily favored to be the top dog.  Young is under-sized for the NFL at 5’10, 204 pounds soak and wet, but we have seen him perform magically at the University of Alabama.  Let’s just hope that he doesn’t get smashed or injured in his very first year in the system.

2. Houston Texans

Who they should pick:  C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State.  For all the reasons that I have stated, CJ Stroud is the man who has the best chance of becoming an NFL Franchise quarterback.

Mock Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State.  The irony here is that even though the Texans screwed up and decided to let Lovie win their last game, they still have the opportunity to pick the best quarterback in the draft.  If it happens this way, I think that new coach DeMeco Ryans and GM Nick Caserio will say that Stroud was their guy from the very beginning which might save them face.   In saying this, I have also heard rumors that they like other options and might go Edge rusher here like Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson.   I will make changes in my 2.0 if needed.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Who they should pick:  It must suck to be right back in a rebuild after paying their head-case quarterback millions of dollars for millions of years.   Now they have to pretty much treat him like a king in order to have some success going forward.   If it were me, I would hire a private detective to follow him around and hope that he does something to breach the agreement.   Unfortunately, playing video games doesn’t do it.  So where do we start here?   I mean…. They have to trade Hopkins now right?   I am not even sure that will happen, but the Cardinals need to start building in the trenches and figure out how to get to the quarterback after losing all of those edge rushers to free agency and retirement.   I would of course trade down, but being that we do not know if that will happen or not, I think Tyree Wilson “edge” 6’6 271 pounds fits a Jonathan Gannon 4-3 defense a bit better than the smaller Will Anderson.

Mock Pick:  Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama.  The biggest fear that a first time GM like Monti Ossenfort has is screwing up his very first big move in the organization.   The name Alabama on a defensive jersey holds a lot more weight than the name Texas Tech.  Will Anderson could be a beast though running a 4.6 forty at 6’4 253 pounds.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Who they should pick: The Ponies were a very soft team last year really all facets of the game.   I wish I could blame injuries for this team who was projected to win their division to finishing almost dead last, but they actually were quite healthy.   I honestly think that this team needs to rebuild and they probably should have tried to trade away some pieces.  Being that they aren’t looking to do that, I think that they could use some more pass rush here to help stop some of these AFC quarterbacks, so let’s go with Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech.  This monster of a man is 6’6 271 pounds who can play in a 4-3 or a 3-4 defense.

Mock Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky.  Chris Ballard is a terrible general manager in my opinion, and I believe that he will cave for a quarterback who hasn’t done diddley in college.   Will Levis has the NFL attributes, but he could not win big games during his college career.  I think that Will Levis might be the Mitch Trubisky of the 2023 NFL draft.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Who they should pick:  If you would have asked me what the Seahawks would be picking before the 2022 NFL season, I would have bet money that it would have been a quarterback.   Now with Geno Smith being the comeback player of the year, I do not know how anyone could diss him like this.   The biggest place that the Seahawks have struggled was against the run ranking 26th in opponent rush EPA, and 29th in opponent rushing yards per game at 150.   They need Jalen Carter, 6’3 313 pounds.

Mock Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. The Seahawks have been a pretty smart organization over the past 10 years.   I think they make the right pick to help stuff the run in Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia.   Carter has had his off the field issues, but he has done a decent job in clearing that up.   He is the best three technique in the draft.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Who they should pick:  What was worse last year, The Lions 29th ranked rush defense or their 30th ranked pass defense?  Being that the Lions picked up Emmanuel Moseley, and Cameron Sutton in lieu of the Okuda trade, they still need some help at corner, Safety, Linebacker, Defensive Tackle, and Edge.   The Kittens just drafted Hutchinson last year so I think going with a defensive tackle like Keeanu Benton 6’4 308 pounds from Wisconsin could change the face of this defense.

Mock Pick:  Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech.  Many of the Mocks like this pick, and I hope that he can stop the run because the NFC North doesn’t have many pocket quarterbacks.  I think the Lions really want to secure the edge this year.  I do not hate this pick but I also think that if Jaylen Carter falls, it could be him here instead.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Who they should pick:  Was losing Derek Carr while gaining Jimmy Garoppolo more like robbing peter to pay Paul?   I don’t really know if Jimmy G is really all that good playing in two top systems in football.   Heck, look at what Brock Purdy did!   I do know that Jimmy G does take less risks and should throw less interceptions next year yet his arm and legs upside takes a hit.  Losing TE Darrin Waller was rough, but maybe the Austin Hooper signing makes up some for it.  The Raiders need to stop the pass and they have already paid for pass rushers like Chandler Jones.  They need to get the best corner in the draft in Devon Witherspoon 6’0 200 pounds.

Mock Pick:  Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois.  I, as a Big 10 fan, have watched a lot of Devon Witherspoon play and he is the truth.  Now he elected to not participate in the combine, but he did run a 4.46 and a 4.42 at his pro day.  Also, keep in mind that moving in pads is much different than moving in shorts.  Witherspoon has the instincts of an amazing cornerback and I love this pick.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Who they should pick:  The Falcons were not really good at anything except for running the football and part of the reason that they ran so well was the fact that they really couldn’t throw the ball ranking 31st in passing yards per game.  Defenses just had to stack the Box making it easy from there.   Now with Mariota gone, Desmond Ritter will take the helm.  I am not 100% sure that Ritter will be successful at the next level.   The Falcons really need a lot of picks, so I think that trading down some and drafting Hendon Hooker might be their best bet.   This way they have two potential quarterbacks, and more picks to fix that awful defense.

Mock Pick:  Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia.  Being from the state of the best college football defense certainly makes one look at that direction.  The Falcons were dead last in pressure rate over the last two years and they need to fix that.   They could also go corner here, but the Jeff Okuda trade might have made them feel more content.

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Who they should pick: There is a Wright way and a wrong way that the Bears could go about doing this.   Being a Bears fan myself, I have to listen to the over-hyped fans screaming for guys like Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Bijan Robinson.   Now that the Bears have fixed their linebacker and guard needs, they will need to go offensive tackle and defensive tackle.  Drafting the best tackle in the draft in Darnell Wright, 6’5 335 pounds be the right move!

Mock Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee.   The Bears get it Wright with this pick.   Not sure how good this Tackle is?   Look at his tape against Will Anderson.  Darnell Wright is my best offensive tackle in this draft.  This move would set Justin Fields up for success.  Now the ball is in his court.  No excuses.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick:  The Eagles are the most stacked team in football but they unfortunately had to give up a few guys like DT Javon Hargrave, LB TJ Edwards and T Andre Dillard to make room to pay Jalen Hurts.   I honestly would be fine with any of those positions, but why not protect your investment by picking the next best offensive Tackle in Broderick Jones 6’5 311 pounds.   Jones has 0 sacks allowed in 449 pass blocking attempts.  WOW.

Mock Pick:  Luke Van Ness, DE, Iowa.  It sounds like the Eagles will fill in a void that hasn’t left yet in Brandon Graham and Van Ness has the size for a 4-3 defensive end at 6’5 272 pounds. Whomever is picking Nolen Smith in their mocks doesn’t do their research.  Smith is 6’2, 238 pounds and will need to be in a 3-4 to succeed.

11. Tennessee Titans

Who they should pick:  The Titans really choked away their chances to get to the playoffs last year, and I think that Ryan Tannehill is playing on borrowed time.   This organization is a mess right now and they lost both a guard in Nate Davis and their defensive end DeMarcus Walker to the Bears.   Being that they could get a good guard in the 2nd round, I say go with another edge rusher like Nolan Smith 6’2 238 pounds.  Nolan ran an amazing 4.39 forty at the combine and the Georgia logo goes a long ways.

Mock Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida.  New GM, new regime.  God I hope I and everyone else is wrong about this.   Richardson is raw and only completed 54% of his passes.   I don’t even know if he should be a quarterback or a tight end in the NFL at this point.   Also, what does this do to Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the team’s feelings this year?   I might have to take their season win total under.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Who they should pick:  The Texans could pretty much justify any big player here being that they need so much, but I will say that they did beef up their interior defensive line and running back positions in free agency.   Now that the Texans have their quarterback (we think), the next logical step is to get to the other team’s quarterback right?   Myles Murphy 6’5 268 pounds from Clemson sure looks good here.   He had the second most sacks in the ACC over the past three years and he sizes well for the 4-3 defense.

Mock Pick:  Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State.   This is really a no-brainer for their organization being that they have Stroud who threw to him in college.   I have some serious reservations about Jaxon being that he didn’t play much in college.  He also benefited in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago against a very depleted Utah backfield.

13. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ)

Who they should pick:  The biggest problem that the Packers had over the last few years according to Aaron Rodgers was that he had nobody to throw to.  I beg to differ and think that their rushing defense was worse.   Last year, the Pack gave up 139.5 rushing yards per game ranking 26th in the NFL.  The Packers need some five techniques (3-4 defensive ends) that can help stop the run.  I have to go with Myles Murphy 6’5 268 pounds once again here.

Mock Pick:  Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame. The Packers lost tight end Robert Tonyan to the Bears and they will want to fill that void to give their young quarterback Jordan Love some help.   I think that Mayer is the safest bet over Dalton Kinkade if going this rout because Mayer can also run block well which helps Matt Lefleur’s run heavy offense.   I personally think that Tight ends are deep, and a good one can be found in the second or third rounds.

14. New England Patriots

Who they should pick:  I really hate trying to predict who Belichik wants from the draft and he has baffled draftologists (such as myself) for years.   I have to imagine that the fact that Isaiah Wynn is gone leaves a pretty big void on their offensive line.   Some Mock Drafts have the Pats trading down and that might just happen as well.  For now they should go with Broderick Jones 6’5 311 pounds, but they won’t because nobody listens to me.

Mock Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia.  Can you believe it?  At 6’5 311 pounds, I do not know how Jones dropped this far in the draft.  Jones has 0 sacks allowed in 449 pass blocking attempts.  The Patriots should consider themselves very lucky here to get him here, and Jones will be a key piece to keeping Mack Jones on his feet.

15. New York Jets (via GBP)

Who they should pick: The Jets certainly lost some interior defense as well as some offensive line.   Looks like the big trade just got done with the Packers so Rogers can bring his drama to New York City.   I suppose if you don’t go offense here, Rogers is going to be offended, so let’s go with Paris Johnson Jr. 6’6 313 pounds who also has experience playing right guard which is also a position that they lost.

Mock Pick:  Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State.  I feel that it will be Paris or Broderick Jones if he falls.  Rogers legacy will be on the line here so don’t screw up!   We have to remember that it is never A-Rod’s fault.

16. Washington Commanders

Who they should pick:  It Sounds to me like the Commanders are pretty content with quarterback Sam Howell.   He actually finished the season well beating an unmotivated Dallas team last year at the end of the regular season.   He also was a projected top draft pick at one time before he lost all of his play makers at North Carolina.   I do not mind this decision being that this quarterback class is so weak.   The Commies could use a tight end, but they need to cover big wide receivers in the NFC East and that pick should take priority.   I like Joey Porter, 6’3 193 pounds here being that he has the larger size over Christian Gonzales.

Mock Pick:  Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State.  Porter has the size and the instincts to keep up with AJ Brown and Ceedee Lamb.   I don’t mind this pick at all.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Who they should pick:  The Steelers were pretty good on defense, but losing CB Cameron Sutton might hurt some.   They instead signed a washed-up Patrick Peterson for two years 14 million, and I do not like that move at all.  Big waste of money if you ask me.  The Steelers also lost ILB Devin Bush and LB Robert Spillane to free agency.   Pittsburgh gained LB Cole Holcomb from Washington which is like using duck tape on a trailer hitch.  I am fine with a corner or a linebacker here.   Being that LBs are not rated that high in this draft, I recommend going corner with Christian Gonzales, 6’1 197 pounds from Oregon.  Gonzo ran the fastest forty out of the top three corners at 4.38.

Mock Pick:  Christian Gonzales, CB, Oregon.   I think that the Steelers get it right here and continue to build to stop guys like Jamar Chase, and OBJ.

18. Detroit Lions

Who they should pick:  Well I stress picking Keanu Benton even more at this position, but being that I used him already, the Lions could use a tight end to help fill the TJ Hockenson trade void.   Now that Jameson Williams is suspended for six games for investing in college football, a pass catcher might not hurt.  Let’s go with Darnell Washington from Georgia.  This man is a beast who should be able to block some.  I know he wasn’t the best pass catching tight end on his team, but it isn’t his fault that his team was stacked at Georgia.

Mock Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah.  Lot’s of Mock drafts have Detroit picking Bijan Robinson, but I just do not see it after they signed David Montgomery and still have D’Andre Smith.   I think that the Lions pick up the same position I recommended, but probably go with Dalton Kincaid being that he is next on most of the rankings.  Dalton, when not busy bouncing rednecks at the Road House bar, is a great pass catcher, but also an injury risk being that he had back issues.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who they should pick:  It’s tough for me to figure out the Buccaneers here being that they still have a bunch of talent on their roster, yet they are kind of in a mini-rebuild.  Can this team really trust Baker Mayfield at quarterback?   What are they doing with Kyle Trask?   There are so many questions and the logical thing to do is trade down.   If not, I think going offense or defensive line is best.  Myles Murphy from Clemson fits the bill with an aging Shaq Barrett.

Mock Pick: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson.  Being that I do not do mock trades, It makes some sense for the Bucs to fix an aging pass rush and grab themselves some 6’5 268 pounds from Clemson.  It’s a pretty safe pick here looking at his numbers in college.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Who they should pick:  Myles Murphy was the one that got away here because it would have been a perfect addition for the Sea-chickens at this spot.  Let’s beef up that offensive Line with Peter Skoronski 6’4 313 pounds from Northwestern.   Skoronski is versatile and can play multiple positions on the offensive line.   Now only can he block, he is also quite smart and would be a great addition to this offensive line.

Mock Pick:  Jordan Addison, WR, USC.  Being that they just picked up DT Dre’Mont Jones and LB Bobby Wagner in free agency, I think that maybe they panic and draft a wide receiver.   I do not like drafting wide receivers in the first round being that they really do not move the needle, but many NFL GMs just can’t help themselves.   Addison has been a top NFL draft prospect since he played with Kenny Pickett on the Pittsburgh Panthers.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Who they should pick:  Really not a lot of movement for the Bolts in free agency this year minus resigning some of their own guys.   The Chargers really need some some help against the run and there are still some top linebackers out there.  My best inside linebacker in the draft is Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 lbs from Iowa.   The Hawkeyes won every game based on their defense last year and this man was their leader.   He has great football instincts and can call the plays.

Mock Pick:  Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas.  Did I also mention that I do not like running backs drafted in the first round either?   The Chargers are an incompetent organization and it is looking like they would rather trade Austin Ekeler rather than pay him something.   The good news for this pick is that Bijan is special and by far the best running back in this class.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Who they should pick:  This Lamar Jackson thing got really annoying and a move here could throw off the whole draft.  (I know, boohoo right?)   Unpopular opinion coming!  Lamar is asking for too much after having some down years.   A big part of his MVP season was having a top three NFL coach and if you don’t believe me, go ask Joe Flacco privately.  The Odell Beckham signing even makes less sense now because it gives Lamar more leverage, as in this could be a waste of money without someone to throw him the ball.  I would personally say to give up on Lamar and draft Hendon Hooker, who is my second rated quarterback.  Hendon was 69.6% accurate last year in his passes and he has stepped up to the competition against teams like Kentucky, LSU and Alabama.   Even though he played in a Josh Heuple college offense, Hooker’s measurables at 6’3, 217 pounds fits the part.  Having 10.5 inch hands also helps as well.

Mock Pick:  Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland.  Banks showed some very good speed in the combine running a 4.38 forty at 197 pounds.  He also had the second longest broad jump of 136 inches.   The Ravens have not signed Marcus Peters and it looks like they will need to fill his position.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Who they should pick:  The Vikings defense was terrible last year and this team needs help all over the place.  The good thing is that they got busy getting some good edge rushers in Marcus Davenport and five technique Dean Lowry.   Patrick Peterson is now gone, and they signed Byron Murphy from the Cardinals.  I honestly would not hate another pass rusher here like a Felix Anudike-Usomah, 6’3 255 pounds from Kansas State.  His 8.5 sacks last year and 46 tackles says it all.

Mock Pick:  Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State.  Due to the playoff embarrassment in the secondary, I think that the Vikings go cornerback.  This kid is 6’1 155 pounds and needs to beef up some.  His 4.35 forty was awesome in the combine and he is long and lanky enough to guard the larger wideouts.  Forbes can jump routs and take it to the house.  I don’t hate this pick, and maybe if he gets some good financial advice, he could make the cover of Forbes magazine someday.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Who they should pick:  Must be nice to have few needs and many options.  The Jaguars could have had a better pass defense last year, but all in all, they did quite well vs some of the big boys.  The Jags fill a need with receiver just by having Calvin Ridley back on the team.  I imagine that he is betting on himself this year.   The Jaguars could go defensive line, cornerback, or safety right here.   Evan Engram is missing OTAs right now, but according to Trent Baalke, they are close to getting something done.   Many corners have already flew off of the board this far, so best to wait for one in the second round.  I say to go with Isaiah Foskey, 6’5, 264 pounds from Notre Dame.  This kid has the size, strength and great speed with a 4.58 forty to be a great next level 4-3 defensive end.

Mock Pick:  Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia.  This is getting repetitive, but the Jaguars will probably go corner here being that they had troubles in coverage last year.  Ringo is a 6’2 207 pound hard hitting back that ran a 4.36 forty.   Also, you have to love that he played for Georgia.

25. New York Giants

Who they should pick:  The G-men were much worse against the run than they were the pass last year.   The good news is that they signed a linebacker and a defensive tackle in free agency.  I am still scratching my head over the Kadarius Tony trade, but I also have to think that maybe he wasn’t good for the locker room.  The Giants lost guard Nick Gates and center Jon Feliciano to free agency.  I myself would go interior offensive line here being that so many corners were taken thus far in this draft.   I would say to draft Peter Skoronski from Northwestern.  This kid is a top prospect in some draft boards.  Skoronski could play Tackle or Guard depending on what is needed.

Mock Pick:  Steve Avilia, G, TCU.   Steve did a wonderful job run blocking and at pass protection for the frogs.  In 515 pass blocking snaps he allowed 0 sacks.  at 6’4 332 pounds, this kid can bench press a cow and probably eat it afterwords.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Who they should pick:  If I am a Cowboys fan, I already know that the clock is ticking to potentially win a championship with Dak Prescott.  The good news is that they didn’t lose a whole bunch to free agency, but they will need to fill a hole at left guard with Conner McGovern heading to Buffalo and at Tight end with Dalton Shultz heading to Houston.  Both of these position groups are pretty deep, so I think that stuffing the run should take priority.  Keeanu Benton is the best bet for dem boys this year.

Mock Pick: Mazi Smith, NT/DT, Michigan.  Pretty good pick here as Dallas only ranked 22nd in opponent rushing yards per game.  Many folks have the Cowboys going for the third tight end here, but I just don’t see the need to reach for one this early.   Lots of tight ends in this draft that grade out well.

27. Buffalo Bills

Who they should pick:  I probably shouldn’t have to say too much here.  Buffalo lost their top linebacker to the Bears in Tremaine Edmunds.  I always thought that him and Roquan Smith were the two best Linebackers in their draft class.   This position is their biggest hole on their team, so I would have to assume that they get it right and fill this hole with a top prospect.  I like Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 pounds from Iowa.

Mock Pick:  Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson.  This is a simple solution to a clear hole that needs to be filled.  Trenton Simpson 6’2 235 pounds from Clemson is at least my next guy up after Jack Campbell.  Simpson was a beast at Clemson and ran a fast 4.43 forty at the combine.   This kid could turn out to be all-pro material.

Best Positional Bet:   Fanduel +300 Bills first pick a Linebacker.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Who they should pick:  Everyone is talking like the Bengals need a Tight End in the first round of this draft.   I beg to differ being that their offense is more based on receivers as well as the fact that they signed Irv Smith from the Vikings.  Losing safety Vonn Bell at Safety could hurt some and Eli Apple isn’t resigned at corner.   I think that the Bengals should grab the best safety in this draft in Brian Branch 6’0 190 pounds from Alabama.

Mock Pick:  Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson.  Like cornerbacks, we are really running out of edge rushers here.   Bresee fits the 4-3 scheme at 6’5 305 pounds.   He was hurt some last year, but he had a great Freshman season.   Bresee had a great combine running a 4.86 forty showing NFL quickness.   He will need some work, but with his talent, he could become an amazing player in the next level.

Speculative Value Bet:  Bengals 1st pick a safety +5000

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Who they should pick:  The Saints come in with a new look as Derek Carr will have the keys to their car for the 2023 season.  The Saints turnover over their defensive line in free agency, and now they have to try and fix their offensive line only coming in 30th last season in many reputable rankings.  The problem is that they have to first admit they were wrong in drafting Trevor Penning from an FCS school in Northern Iowa just last year.   I say go for Anton Harrison from Oklahoma.  At 6’4 315 pounds, this kid can block.  He only allowed one sack in 425 pass blocking attempts.

Mock Pick:  Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern.  Some folks have this guy ranked number one, but I just do not see it quite that high.   At 6’4 313 lbs, the kid can bench press an over-sized hog, but he needs to work on his speed.

30.  Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick:  Rumor has it that the Eagles will trade down here, but I have to stay consistent.   This team needs a linebacker to fill in for the TJ Edwards loss, and they could use another good wide receiver.   I would say to go with Jack Campbell, 6’5 249 lbs from Iowa, and if not him, Derick Hall 6’3 254 pounds from Auburn.   Hall had 60 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year forcing three turnovers.   He fits the scheme that the Eagles are trying to do.

Mock Pick:  Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State.  I do not mind this pick at all.  Felix is a little slower than Derick Hall, but his production was great at 8.5 sacks and 46 tackles last year.   Felix is high on some draft boards and he has great NFL instincts.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Who they should pick:  When you have Mahomes and Kelce, you are already half way there and the rest is gravy.   I’ll take their situation any year and be happy.   The Chiefs lost left tackle Orlando Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie to free agency, while they haven’t resigned defensive ends Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap.   I say go with the next best 4-3 defensive end out there in Isaiah Foskey 6’5 265 pounds.

Mock Pick:  Isaiah Foskey, DE.  This kid could be a steal here.   Foskey ran a nice 4.58 forty at the combine and benched 34 reps of 225 pounds.   Foskey has the most sacks in Notre Dame history at 26.5.   His tape really speaks for itself.   Quite possibly the biggest edge steal of the draft.

 

Podcast 30 – 23 – The 2023 NFL Mock Draft – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to give us his 2023 NFL Mock draft!   Today we talk about what teams “should do” and what teams “might do” with their pick.   Kiev has been quite accurate with his mocks over the past few seasons and he has never lost money in an NFL draft!  We also give out a few “free plays” at the end of the podcast so buckle up!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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We head to South Beach, whom I’m Backing and Why

By
Eric Rocco
-

Giannis is IN, Giannis is back and the Bucks are going to cover 8? Well that’s not how I see it. How can you back a Miami team that almost lost to the Bulls in an elimination game and are facing a hungry Bucks squad trying not to go back to Milwaukee down 3-1? Very easily my friends, yes I understand I’m in the minority here with this opinion. Frankly, that doesn’t bother me. When they stormed back vs the Bulls, these guys caught a 2nd wind and realized, hey we can still play vs these ‘better’ teams. They were one game away from going to the NBA Finals  less than a year ago, I mean they were down 2 with 50 seconds left. This group of guys have been here before.

Yes I understand they have had a down season, but right now it’s irrelevant. Jimmy buckets is shooting over 60% from the field in this series, the resurgent Duncan Robinson has chipped in 34 points the last two games and as a team they’re shooting over 55% in the 3 games! None of this bodes well for a Bucks team that is very susceptible to giving up the 3, which is how Miami goes on their quick runs. 

I know Milwaukee is VERY good, Giannis will be balls to the wall, but then again when is he not? If you played sports and ever had a back injury, it is one of the most impactful injuries out there. He is not 100% and won’t be. One elbow, one shoulder and the pain will reappear quickly. Am I saying he won’t finish the game, of course I’m not saying that, but then again he has been knocked out vs them twice in a few months. Luck has not been on their side when facing Miami, 0-5 at the Kaseya Center(weird calling it that) in the last 5 tries.

I just think 8 is just too many points to be giving up on the road in this spot. We have seen Miami play down to their opponents for sure, but they can play up to them as well. Which is why I’m tossing in a small ML play!

Heat +8 (PointsBet -110) 3 units

Heat ML +280 (PointsBet) 0.3 units

NHL Preview & Picks – April 25th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

There are three games taking place tonight. I’ll break down with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

 

Matchups:

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Series: Carolina Hurricanes (3) – New York Islanders (1)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Carolina Hurricanes +145 +130 +1.5 (-210) o5 (-140)
New York Islanders -170 -150 -1.5 (+180) u5 (+120)

 

 

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Series: Minnesota Wild (2) – Dallas Stars (2)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Minnesota Wild +120 +120 +1.5 (-225) o5.5 (+110)
Dallas Stars -140 -140 -1.5 (+190) u5.5 (-130)

 

 

Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers

  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Series: Los Angeles Kings (2) – Edmonton Oilers (2)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Los Angeles Kings +185 +185 +1.5 (-135) o6.5 (-120)
Edmonton Oilers -215 -215 -1.5 (+115) u6.5 (+100)

 

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (+105) – DraftKings

The Islanders find themselves on the brink of elimination tonight. Their only win came on home ice in Game 3 which required overtime. Ilya Sorokin hasn’t been as dominant in the playoffs after posting a +38.7 GSAx in the regular season. He’s started each of the first four games of this series and has a merely -0.2 GSAx. On the other hand, Antti Raanta has been solid for Carolina with a +1.4 GSAx. The Hurricanes have controlled each game and currently lead the postseason in xGoals%. Without Sorokin standing on his head, this Islanders team is not as dominant and it’s shown in this series. I fully expect the Canes to end this series tonight on home ice.

 

  • Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 Points (-112) – FanDuel

Draisaitl has at least two points in three of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in each of the last four games. He’s currently 2nd in points this postseason with 9, only one behind Mitchell Marner. Head Coach Jay Woodcroft has stacked his top line pairing Draisaitl with McDavid and Kane. This line has accounted for the majority of minutes for this team offensively. Edmonton’s top Power Play, which Draistail is on, has also been great this series as well and has been given multiple opportunities in three of the first four games. We saw him elevate his game in the postseason last year and he’s doing it again this year.

 

Player Props to Target:

[All stats provided by linemate.io]

  • Brent Burns over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
    • Burns has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against New York. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.
  • Jamie Benn over 0.5 Points (-160) – DraftKings
    • Benn has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Minnesota. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.
  • Mats Zuccarello over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
    • Zuccarello has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Dallas. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last three games.
  • Ryan Hartman over 0.5 Points (-108) – FanDuel
    • Hartman has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Dallas. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last two games.
  • Evan Bouchard over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
    • Bouchard has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last four games.
  • Adrian Kempe over 0.5 Points (-165) – DraftKings
    • Kempe has at least one point in each of the first four games of their series against Edmonton. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.
  • Evander Kane over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
    • Kane has at least one point in three of the first four games of their series against Los Angeles. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of the last five games.
  • Martin Necas over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
    • Martin Necas has gone over this number in each game of their series against New York. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Two GREAT Spots for these Away Squads

By
Eric Rocco
-

The Kings came back to reality 3 days ago and got pummeled by a pissed off Dub Town, down by as many as 23 at one point. After back to back highly emotional games, most expected that performance. The Kings offense relies on the 3 ball, which GSW defends very well, Sacramento shot 23.5% from 3 in the last two games. If you remember in late January when they had their offensive struggles, they failed to consistently drain the 3. What can they do to score? Take more jump shots and GET TO THE RACK. “Light The Beam” is averaging 28 free throws per game in this series and when you attack the Warriors they have a tendency to foul, and foul often. We know the Warriors are great at home, hence the line, but Sacramento had the 2nd most road wins in basketball. Most are approaching this game simply as, bet against GSW on the road, bet on them at home. I don’t think it’s that easy, give me the points here.

Kings +7.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.4 units

 

Atlanta got 2 nights in their own bed and made the correct adjustments. They also got one would argue, Trae Young’s best playoff performance of his career and they flat out wanted it more than Boston. After 2 dominant victories I can’t say I was surprised. Now can we count on another stellar performance from Trae, I surely wouldn’t. One day of rest instead of two, will surely make a difference as well, trying to figure out ways to control Boston. Atlanta will have the home PLAYOFF crowd to keep them in it, but in the end the cream will rise to the top and Boston’s class will pull away. Lay the points!

If there is an opportunity to bet them live and you can get a low number take advantage of that as well.

Celtics -6.5 (PointsBet -110) 1.3 units

MLB 4/22/23 Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Red Sox vs Brewers -120

The mighty mighty Red Sox have had a decent start at 11-10, but strangely enough in the AL East, that lands them in last place thus far.  Garrett Whitlock takes the helm today and my has he been roughed up so far.  Whitlock has a 5.42 FIP with only 7.5 K/9 innings.  Last year he was more solid when not injured, but I do not think he has found his groove.   The Brew Crew have Wade Miley starting for them who is off to a fantastic start with a 3.17 FIP and a 1.5 ERA over 18 innings.   Wade wasn’t a bad pitcher last year either having a 3.95 FIP and a 3.16 ERA.   I think that both teams are over-achieving some, but the Brewers are even better than some of their numbers state being that they have had the 3rd hardest schedule thus far on Team Rankings.   I also like the fact that the Brewers have a more rested Bullpen being that they were off on Thursday while the Red Sox had a break since April 7th.   Take the crew to win.

Brewers -120 – 1 star

Podcast 29 – 23 – With Raphael Esparza – 2023 NFL Draft Odds & More Plays – UFC on ESPN 71 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a fantastic for you today! Raphael Exparza @VSIDocsports comes on to break down some 2023 NFL Draft!   First, Kiev goes over some of his NBA thoughts.   Next, Raphael comes on and the guys get right into the NFL Draft.  Which exotic props might he be making?   What plays has Raphael and Kiev already have made?   Then, the guys get into some of their thoughts on if the numbers are correct on some of the position totals.  After that, the guys give out some plays that they just made for the big day.  Finally, Kiev gets into some UFC on ESPN with some Free Plays and leans.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds23” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

Wednesday Free Play – Canning Up Some Runs

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Back today with a free play 1-0 on MLB Free Plays so far this season.

My analysis turns to Yankee Stadium in New York today where the Angels take on the Yanks in AL action at 7:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Yankees -132, Angels +112 and the Over/Under is sitting at 9 juiced to the over at -120.

This contest features a pair of right handers in Griffin Canning and Johny Brito. Last week I had a heavy fade against Johny Brito of the Yankees going up against the Twins. He didn’t make it out of the first inning and surrendered 7 earned runs. Brito is a heavy ground ball pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats with a K/9 Rate at 6.75 across AAA and the majors. Looking at his numbers in AAA last year they looked good on the surface, but his 3.31 was masked by a much bigger xFIP at 4.63. Currently his walk rate at the upper levels is also sitting over 3.1 so the 2.17 K/BB ratio at the upper levels is not a great predictor of future success. His barrel rate is also sitting at 14.7% Most of these came in his last start where he was missing his spots and leaving the ball over he middle of the plate. The starter he will be opposing tonight for the Angels if oft-injured Griffin Canning who hasn’t started more than 17 games in a season in his MLB career and has yet to top 100 innings. He has a career ERA at 4.70 and an xFIP at 4.74 so I think we know what we are getting with Canning. He leaves a lot of balls up and as a result gets lots of Fly Balls. Unfortunately for him he has 14% of those fly balls leave the yard in his career. Canning has a very effective change-up, but the rest of his offerings are very hittable. If he isn’t effective getting the change setup he tends to get hit hard. He faced one of the worst lineups in baseball in his first start giving up two runs to the Nationals. He won’t get off so easy against the Yankees tonight.

These offenses feature three of the elite power hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge (.271BA 5HRs 9RBIs) of the Yankees, and Shohei Ohtani (.300BA  4HRs 11RBIs) and Mike Trout (.293 BA 3HRs 9 RBIs) of the Angels. There’s also some other folks with serious power in Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres. While neither of these offenses has reached their full potential up to this point I think tonight’s starting pitchers as well as a light breeze blowing straight out to center field is a recipe for success for some runs to be scored. There’s no extra value on the F5 number so I like the full game a little better hoping that this game goes a little one-sided early and we see some of the more subpar options out of the pens later in the contest.

I’m Taking the Over 9 Runs -120 for 1.5 Units

 

NHL Preview & Picks – April 18th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We had a fantastic NHL regular season gaining 31.08 Units (7.9 ROI %). Last night, we started the playoffs off strong going 2-0 (+2.00 Units).

There are four games taking place tonight. I’ll break down each matchup along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • New York Rangers: 47-22-13, (24-9-8 Away)
  • New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, (24-13-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Rangers +110 +110 +1.5 (-230) o5.5 (-115)
New Jersey Devils -130 -130 -1.5 (+195) u5.5 (-105)

 

The Rangers and Devils will face off in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. New York reached the Eastern Conference finals last season while the Devils will be making their first postseason appearance since 2018. New Jersey had a drastic turnaround this season recording 112 points from last year when they just had 49. Both of these teams made some trade deadline acquisitions in hope of a deep playoff run. For New York, it feels as though this is their window to compete for a Cup while New Jersey’s window has just opened.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 46-30-6, (18-22-1 Away)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 50-21-11, (27-8-6 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning +125 +135 +1.5 (-200) o6 (+100)
Toronto Maple Leafs -145 -155 -1.5 (+170) u6 (-120)

 

These two teams will meet again in the first round again after the Tampa Bay Lightning knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs last season. The Lightning will hope to make it to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning it in two of their three appearances. Toronto on the other hand has lost in the first round of the playoffs in each of their past six seasons. They made some trade deadline acquisitions that they hope will propel them past the first round. In the regular season, the Leafs earned five of a possible six points against Tampa Bay but as we all know, things can change in the playoffs.

 

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Winnipeg Jets: 46-33-3, (20-20-1 Away)
  • Vegas Golden Knights: 51-22-9, (25-15-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Winnipeg Jets +135 +130 +1.5 (-205) o5.5 (-110)
Vegas Golden Knights -155 -150 -1.5 (+175) u5.5 (-110)

 

The Vegas Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the first time last year after reaching the postseason in each of their first four seasons in the league. That didn’t sit well with the front office as they replaced head coach Peter DeBoer with Bruce Cassidy. Winnipeg started the season off strong but struggled in the second half going 13-14-2 to end the year. They didn’t secure their playoff spot until the penultimate game of their season. If the Jets want to make a deep playoff run they’ll need to rely on goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

 

Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche

  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Seattle Kraken: 46-28-8, (26-11-4 Away)
  • Colorado Avalanche: 51-24-7, (22-13-6 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Seattle Kraken +155 +170 +1.5 (-145) o6 (-110)
Colorado Avalanche -180 -200 -1.5 (+125) u6 (-110)

 

The Seattle Kraken have made the playoffs for the first time since joining the NHL as an expansion team last season. Last season they finished last in the Pacific Division but with some off-season acquisitions, they were able to put together a roster that can compete. This was the largest jump between a first and second season in NHL history. They’ll face off against the Colorado Avalanche who will begin their Stanley Cup title defense. Colorado has lost several players from that roster but still kept their core intact. However, this team has battled injuries all season and will be without their captain Gabriel Landeskog.

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (+110) – DraftKings

I think we see an inspired effort from the Toronto Maple Leafs here in Game 1. They’ll be hungry for revenge against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. Keep in mind, in Game 1 of that series the Leafs dominated winning 5-0. Toronto ended the season strong with four wins to close out their season so they have some momentum heading into the playoffs. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has lost four of their last five games. To be fair, they did rest a lot of key players including their star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Historically, Vasilevskiy has struggled against the Leafs allowing three or more goals in his last five matchups against them. While Tampa Bay has continually proven themselves in the playoffs, I think the Leafs take Game 1 as they need to try and close this series out as soon as possible. If they let Tampa Bay hang around and this series starts to go to 6-7 games, I think the momentum switches to the Lightning.

 

  • Winnipeg Jets / Vegas Golden Knights Under 5.5 (-105) – BetMGM

The Winnipeg Jets are a solid defensive team ranking 9th in Goals Against per 60 (GAA). They’ve also allowed the 7th fewest High Danger Shots Against. Connor Hellebuyck anchors them in net ranking 4th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). In their last ten games of the regular season, they allowed an average of just 2.20 Goals Against. The Golden Knights have been better defensively as well with a 2.60 GAA in their last ten games. While they are without their starting goaltender in Logan Thompson, the expected starter of Laurent Brossoit has been fantastic in his last few starts. In his eleven starts this season he has a +5.9 GSAx which ranks 24th. He has only allowed multiple goals twice in his last five starts. While I expect Vegas to control this game, I believe Winnipeg has the defensive capability to withstand those pushes and limit Vegas’ chances. For the limited chances that Winnipeg may get, Brossoit has proven that he’s a capable netminder. I’m thinking this is a similar game to the Islanders/ Hurricanes matchup that we saw last night.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Mika Zibanejad over 0.5 Points (-165) – DraftKings
    • Mika Zibanejad has gone over this number in each of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Devils, Zibanejad has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
  • Nico Hischier over 0.5 Points (-185) – DraftKings
    • Nico Hischier has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Rangers, Hischier has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
  • Alex Killorn over 0.5 Points (-118) – FanDuel
    • Alex Killorn has gone over this number in four of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his three previous matchups against the Maple Leafs, Killorn has recorded over 0.5 points twice.
  • Jack Eichel over 0.5 Points (-175) – DraftKings
    • Jack Eichel has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four. In his two previous matchups against the Jets, Eichel has recorded over 0.5 points each time.
  • Artturi Lehkonen over 0.5 Points (-138) – FanDuel
    • Artturi Lehkonen has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Kraken, Lehkonen has recorded over 0.5 points three times.
  • William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+102) – FanDuel
    • William Nylander has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 8.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Lightning rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.49. On the road, that number increases slightly to 32.51. Tampa Bay has also given up the 13th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his four previous matchups against the Lightning, Nylander has gone over this number each time.
  • Jonathan Marchessault over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
    • Jonathan Marchessault has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Jets rank 10th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.33. On the road, that number increases slightly to 30.71. Winnipeg has also given up the 14th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his three previous matchups against the Jets, Marchessault has gone over this number each time.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NHL Preview & Picks – April 17th, 2023 (Bonus 1st Round Series Futures)

By
Patrick Gates
-

We had a fantastic NHL regular season gaining 31.08 Units (7.9 ROI %).

The NHL Playoffs are here! We have the first four games taking place tonight. I’ll break down each matchup along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • New York Islanders: 42-31-9, (17-18-6 Away)
  • Carolina Hurricanes: 52-21-9, (28-10-3 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Islanders +140 +145 +1.5 (-190) o5.5 (+110)
Carolina Hurricanes -165 -170 -1.5 (+160) u5.5 (-130)

 

The Islanders made a late-season push to secure themselves the first wild card spot in the playoffs. They missed the postseason last year but do have a veteran core that will rely on their experience from their 2020 and 2021 playoff runs. New York will also get a key piece back tonight in Matthew Barzal who’s been out for the last 23 games.

Carolina has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs since 2019. They had a great season recording the second-most wins. They’ll be without one of their key players in Andrei Svechnikov who had to undergo knee surgery.

 

Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins

  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Florida Panthers: 42-32-8, (19-19-3 Away)
  • Boston Bruins: 65-12-5, (34-4-3 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +185 +190 +1.5 (-140) o6.5 (+100)
Boston Bruins -215 -225 -1.5 (+120) u6.5 (-120)

 

After making some pre-season trades that shook up their roster, the Panthers were able to secure the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They do have a roster that can compete with this Boston roster as seen in the regular season handing the Bruins two of their seventeen losses. They’ll be relying on Alex Lyon in net who is set to make his first postseason start tonight.

The Bruins put together arguably the greatest regular season in NHL history. They set the all-time win record with 65 topping the previous record of 62 set by the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings.

 

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Minnesota Wild: 46-25-11, (21-13-7 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 47-21-14, (22-10-9 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Minnesota Wild +120 +125 +1.5 (-215) o5.5 (+100)
Dallas Stars -140 -145 -1.5 (+185) u5.5 (-120)

 

Minnesota has now made the playoffs for the fourth straight season. However, they haven’t advanced to the second round since 2015. Kirill Kaprizov recently returned to the Wild’s lineup after missing over a month due to a lower-body injury. Even with missing that much time, he was still their leading scorer.

The Dallas Stars have made the postseason in each of their last two seasons. Last year, they were eliminated in the first round by the Calgary Flames. Before that, they advanced to the Stanley Cup in 2020 falling to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Their new head coach Peter Deboer has had plenty of success with teams in his first year so the Stars will be hoping for a deep playoff run this year.

 

Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers

  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Los Angeles Kings: 47-25-10, (21-14-6 Away)
  • Edmonton Oilers: 50-23-5-4, (23-12-3 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Los Angeles Kings +145 +165 +1.5 (-165) o6.5 (-110)
Edmonton Oilers -170 -195 -1.5 (+140) u6.5 (-110)

 

These teams will match up in the first round for the second consecutive season. Last year, the Oilers came back from down 3-2. That would spark Edmonton’s run to the Western Conference Finals where they would eventually lose to the Stanley Cup Champions, the Colorado Avalance.

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • New York Islanders/ Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 (-130) – DraftKings

Both of these teams have been solid defensively ranking in the top 5 in terms of goals against per game. The Islanders are anchored by Ilya Sorokin on the backend who’s one of the best goaltenders in the NHL ranking 3rd in GSAx (+38.7). The Islanders and Hurricanes both like to play a defensive style of hockey limiting the other team’s chances. Carolina allowed the fewest High Danger Shots Against this year with just 118. While I expect the Hurricanes to control this game, I believe the Islanders are a team that can withstand the pressure. As I mentioned before, Carolina doesn’t get up many chances so I expect the Islanders to be limited offensively tonight. In their last matchup this year, New York was held to just 22 shots on goal.

 

  • Boston Bruins in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings

For the Bruins coming off a historic season, the expectations are sky-high. Anything less than winning the Cup will be considered a failure of a season. They’ll face a Florida team that has given them some trouble this year but as we saw during the regular season, the Bruins elevate their game at home. The last thing they want to do is drop the first game of this series and give Florida even the slightest of hope. I fully expect the Bruins to put forward their best effort tonight and control this game.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Tyler Bertuzzi over 0.5 Points (-108) – FanDuel
    • Tyler Bertuzzi has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last four. In his five previous matchups against the Panthers, Bertuzzi has recorded over 0.5 points three times. He’s playing on the second line with Krejci and Pastrnak tonight so he should get plenty of ice time. Bertuzzi is also on the second Power Play for Boston which should have multiple opportunities as Florida’s taken three or more penalties in five of their last six games.
  • Evander Kane over 0.5 Points (-124) – FanDuel
    • Evander Kane had a difficult season suffering a gruesome wrist injury earlier in the season. He’s struggled as of late only recording one point in his last five games. However, he seems to enjoy playing at home more, recording a point in each of his last three games at Rogers Place. Kane’s currently on the second line with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. In addition to that, he’s also on Edmonton’s second Power Play unit. Last year in the playoffs, he was great with 17 points in 15 games played.
  • David Pastrnak over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-133) – Caesars
    • David Pastrnak has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.6 shots on goal and 10.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 4.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Panthers rank 22nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.74. On the road, that number drops slightly to 30.41. Florida has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers in their last ten games. In his previous matchup against the Panthers, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal on twelve shot attempts.

 

1st Round Series Futures:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Boston Bruins -2.5 Games (+155) – DraftKings
  • Dallas Stars -1.5 Games (+130) – DraftKings

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

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