The big storyline around Houston at the moment is the status of star G Marcus Sasser. That injury will surely play a large role in how you view Houston down the stretch of the tournament, but I find it pretty meaningless in this particular matchup. The Cougars are notorious for dominating inferior competition, and they very well may have drawn the easiest 16 seed. NKU might be power-rated higher than the other 16 seeds, but their weaknesses bode horribly in this particular matchup.
You simply have to match Houston’s physicality on the boards if you want to hang with them. Well… Northern Kentucky ranks 315th in defensive rebounding %. I personally believe Houston should operate more as a 2pt offense and shy away from the 3, but this is a particular matchup where their tendency to shoot from deep will serve them well given NKU ranks 319th in opponent 3pt FG%. NKU will take advantage of sloppy teams, but this Houston team thrives in the halfcourt and turns the ball over just 9.5 times per game(13th in CBB).
It goes without saying, but it’s safe to assume an offense that ranks 283rd in 2pt FG% and is mediocre on the outside is going to struggle mightily to finish possessions against perhaps the best on-ball defense in the country.
I’d be shocked if the Cougars don’t win this game by 20+, though the low-possession nature of these teams is worth considering if you’re going to lay that big of a number.
*Iowa vs Auburn(-1.5) O/U 151.5
As is the case in most Iowa games, the Hawkeyes will have the best and worst unit on the floor. The Hawkeyes hold the 3rd best assist/turnover ratio in CBB, and when they’re hitting outside shots, they’re damn near unstoppable. With that said, they’re shooting just 34.3% from deep on the season(175th in CBB), and Auburn defends the three at a Top 5 rate in CBB.
Iowa’s defense is laughably bad; they rank 295th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt defense. If Auburn shies away from settling for outside shots, I don’t see why the Tigers shouldn’t be able to beat this defense off the dribble time-and-time again.
You have to give Bruce Pearl the coaching advantage over Fran McCafferey(notorious for missing the second weekend), but Auburn has been in a confusing state over the past calendar year. If you’ll remember, the Tigers were a Top 5 team for virtually all of last season before stumbling to the finish in a Round of 32 loss. This year, they have underperformed all season despite bringing back one of the most experienced groups in the SEC.
I can’t endorse backing Iowa given the major defensive mismatch here, but this is not an Auburn group that has inspired much confidence over the last few months. Pretty easy pass for me.
*Texas A&M(-3.5) vs Penn State O/U 134.5
You couldn’t find two offenses that operate more differently. A&M lives around the rim offensively and gets to the foul line at the 2nd highest rate in CBB, while Penn State ranks 12th in 3pt attempts per game but just 362nd in FT attempts per game.
For an offense that neglects the outside shot, it’s a bit concerning to see Texas A&M ranks just 241st in 2pt FG%; this should be their strength. The Aggies do hold a stark defensive edge, but Penn State stepped up tremendously on this end of the floor in their Big 10 Tournament push this past week.
Brad Underwood called Penn State’s offensive style “booty ball”, and if you’ve watched the Nittany Lions this season, that would make sense. They are incredibly patient and risk averse, will back defenders down early in the shot clock to create open looks for their perimeter players, and will make these shots at a high rate. The Aggies have been disruptive against standard offenses, but do I expect that to translate against this one-off style of offense?
I’d be worried about the FT discrepancy as a Penn State backer, but it’s hard to deny that this Penn State offense will be the best unit on the floor in this matchup. If last week was any indication, PSU will have a chance down the stretch.
*Colgate vs Texas(-13.5) O/U 150.5
I’m a die-hard Texas fan who doesn’t offer betting opinions on my Horns, but I feel pretty equipped to share my view of this squad’s makeup.
Many people think Texas runs through Marcus Carr offensively, but the Horns have gotten much more multiple down the stretch of the season. Big-man Dylan Disu has become an integral part of this offense, scoring 10+ in 5 of his last 6 games and 18 in the B12 Championship vs Kansas. Throw in sixth-man Sir’Jabari Rice, veteran F Timmy Allen, surging guard Tyrese Hunter, and a deep bench, and it’s safe to say the Horns have plenty of weapons to beat you.
Texas’ kryptonite defensively is assuredly good offensive rebounding teams; they rank just 186th in defensive rebounding %. They’ve been a little more inconsistent on this end of the floor since Chris Beard’s departure, but they do force TO’s at the 14th highest rate in CBB.
Colgate is one of the best 2pt and 3pt offenses in America and takes great care of the basketball. However, they will not be able to take advantage of Texas’ weakness defensively(292nd in ORB%), and hitting jumpers at a ridiculous rate is virtually their only path to hang in this game considering their subpar on-ball defense(240th in both 2pt and 3pt defense) and lack of disruption on that end of the floor.
Texas is a team that relies on Free Throws quite a bit, but Colgate fouls at the lowest rate in America. That’s a little wrinkle that could matter in a matchup where you’re laying a big number.
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Not sure what the committee’s goal was here, but putting Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and UConn certainly has presented challenges for those who move on each round. Regardless I will break down each and every game in this bracket throughout the tournament, starting with the Round of 64. Let’s get this party started!
Thursday March 16th
Des Moines, IA
16 Howard vs 1 Kansas -22 (O/U 146) 2:00pm ET
The Jay-hawks got absolutely buried by Texas twice in their last 4 games, and are looking to forget it quickly. They still managed to land #1 seed in the big dance, largely because of their plethora of quad 1 wins. This team can get sloppy at times, and it may not matter vs the Bison, but I believe it will come into play in the upcoming rounds. Like the UCLA game, it’s a pass for me, but most surely the wait and see approach.
Play- PASS
9 Illinois vs 8 Arkansas -2 (O/U 144) 4:30pm ET
To me this is one of the most intriguing games of the whole Round of 64. I believe these are two teams that have the ability and talent to potentially make a run, especially with a vulnerable high turnover prone Kansas team waiting in the wings.
You have an Illini squad who beat UCLA, as well as Texas, but lack discipline and lost to Penn St 3 times. They also struggled down the stretch, losing their last 3 of 4 and 6 of 10. They rely on the 3 a bit too much at times, averaging 25 attempts a game, unfortunately for them Arkansas can defend it well. Giving up 5.1 a game, lowering to 3.4 a game in their L5. Can the Razorbacks have short term memory, after blowing a 13 point lead at halftime vs Texas AM in the conference tourney? I believe they can and will, facing an Illini team who has had trouble getting out of the gate this season, but fight like heck late.
Play- 1H: Arkansas -1 (Caesars -110) 0.75 unit
Sacramento, CA
10 Boise St vs 7 Northwestern -1.5 (O/U 129.5) 7:35pm ET
The Wildcats have had an unforgettable season so far, winning 12 games the highest of Coach Collins tenure and playing tough physical defense. Having Boo Buie helps too, scoring in double digits in all but 3 games, and a whopping 13 twenty points or more games! His ability to take over the game at any time has been a big part of their success this season. Their discipline on both ends is going to make it a long day for the Broncos. Committing less than 10 turnovers per game, grabbing 10.4 offensive boards in their L5, and having given up 21.3 made field goals per game in 9 of their L10.
None of this bodes well for a struggling Boise St squad, losing 3 of their L5 and covering in 2 of their last 11 games. Defensively they better figure it out quick, because of their capability of going on scoring droughts. Offensively they have not been able to eclipse more than 44.6% shooting more than once in their last 7. The BSU defense has given up 73.4 points a game in their last 7, as well as 14.8 assists per game in their L5. This is my best bet in the region!
Play- Northwestern ML -130 (FanDuel) 2 units
15 UNC Asheville vs 2 UCLA -17.5 (O/U 135.5) 10:05pm ET
The Bruins who many counted out in the PAC 12 championship due to injuries, led for countless minutes of the game. Only to come up a little short vs a tough Arizona squad, but in my eyes lighting a fire in their backs to start this road to a championship! Yes, UCLA is my pre tournament pick to win it all. They get to face the Big South champs Thursday night in Sacramento, which in my opinion are the perfect opponents to get their confidence back with gorillas waiting to play them in the upcoming games. Adem Bona who suffered an injury March 12th is questionable, but not necessarily needed vs UNC-Asheville. I have no play on this game, but will be closely monitoring the Bruins!
Play- PASS
Friday, March 17th
Albany, NY
12 VCU vs 5 St. Mary’s -4 (O/U 122.5) 2:00pm ET
VCU from what I have read is the ‘Wise Guy’s’ pick, and quite honestly why not. They are the A-10 champs, they force 16.5 turnovers a game, and have shot the ball tremendously recently. In their L5, they shot 51%, 41% from three and averaging 16.6 assists per game.
Now taking on this Saint Mary’s defense will be a tough task, they are good! Arguably one of the best defenses in the country, but will their slow shooting affect them from making any kind of run or for this matter even getting past the 1st round. This game is a strong pass for me.
Play- Strong PASS
13 Iona vs 4 Connecticut -9 (O/U 141) 4:30pm ET
Let’s start with UConn, everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding.
Now they have to face Rick Pitino’s Gael’s who have won 14 in a row, but have not faced a juggernaut like UConn all season. Playing the underdog role is rare for them, being favorites in 24 straight games. 9.5 points or more in 16 of 21, and 12 points or more in 10 of 21. I believe their weak schedule will hurt them in this scenario and will be Rick Pitino’s last game as a Gael.
Play- UConn -9 (Caesars -110) 1.25 units
Denver, CO
11 Arizona St/Nevada vs 6 TCUN/A
14 Grand Canyon vs 3 Gonzaga -15.5 (O/U 155.5) 7:35pm ET
The high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
We have seen the Zags struggle vs this type of team recently in the Dons of San Francisco. The Dons connected on 14 threes and kept it close for most of the game. With it being a 2 point game at the 10:00 minute mark and a 5 point game at the 6:36 mark. If GC can keep its hot shooting going and keep it close, I see the over coming in fairly easily.
We have an great show for you today! Matt Youmans @MattYoumans247 from @VSIN comes on to break down the NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND 1! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday at 9:00 AM PT! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Kiev gives you his bracket upsets and FINAL 4 with his champion for 2023! Then, Matty comes on and the guys get right into their brackets as well as some of the tougher handicaps for the 1st round of the NCAA tournament! Finally, Matt fires out his FREE PLAYS that he has made so far for both Thursday and Friday! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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2-0, +1.60 units so far on March Madness!
Nevada vs Arizona St -2.5 (O/U 134.5) 9:10pm ET
Why revenge, these teams don’t play each other? Well, at the end of the 2021-2022 season, Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington transferred to? Yes you guessed it, Arizona State! Talk about story-lines galore. Does ASU have a better resume and are they better in certain statistical categories, yes. I do think it’s somewhat of an over reaction though, we just saw them beat USC comfortably and play high flying much ‘older’ Gonzaga. Compared to Nevada who lost 3 straight, 2 of the way of OT vs 3 comparably weak teams. The Wolf Pack did hold leads at the 2 minute mark in both OT losses, but were unable to close it out.
Previous to last week they were 22-6, and most would say a cinch to make the Big Dance. But is their resume not as good as ASU though? I believe it could be better even with all the narratives out there betting against the Mountain West. With 4 quad 1 wins and 7 quad 1/2 victories. What they do have is continuity, with all 5 starters who started game 1, and also started game 32. Led by Oregon St transfer senior guard Jarod Lucas, averaging 25 points a game ironically in his L3.
How are the Wolf Pack going to win? Crashing the boards defensively, not turning the ball over and making their free throws. Both these defenses are great at forcing turnovers, but Nevada’s offense is averaging 8.6 a game in their L5, as opposed to ASU is averaging 11.8 in the L5. The Wolf Pack average 17 made free throws a game, while shooting 79% from the charity strike. Whereas ASU ranks 260th nationally at 68.9%. 6’8 freshman forward Nick Davidson could be the difference maker tonight, his ability to score and crash the glass all off the bench could be the final push needed vs the Sun Devils.
I’m all over the Wolf Pack tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!
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Thursday:
West Virginia vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 138.5 – Birmingham AL
Believe it or not, this should be a very solid game to watch. Maryland has more advantages from mid-range and from deep. The Terps rank 61st in adjusted three point percentage while West Virginia ranks 96th defending it. Neither team is all that good inside, but Maryland should have the rebounding advantage here. West Virginia tends to get sloppy with the ball turning it over 18.5% of possessions. Take the points but maybe wait it out some for a three.
Lean Maryland +2.5 – 2.5 stars
Furman vs Virginia -5.5 O/U 132.5 – Orlando FL
This could be a dangerous game for the Wahoos here. They seem to struggle more vs defensive oriented teams though. I am a big concerned that the Paladins rank number one from two point land. This team shoots a lot of threes, and Virginia is a bit weak from downtown ranking 178th in opponent three point FG%. Haslametrics has this as only a 4 point spread. I could see Furman being in this game just based on their hot offense ranking 33rd in adjusted efficiency. Also keep in mind that Virginia lost 6’8 forward Ben Vander Plas who averages 5 rebounds per game with a hand injury. Take Furman.
Furman +5.5 – 2.5 stars – sprinkle ML +230
Utah State vs Missouri PK O/U 154
Utah State is the better rebounding team for sure, but Missouri has had the much harder schedule in the SEC. Both of these teams play a faster paced game and shoot a lot of three pointers. All the numbers give the Aggies a large advantage where it is important. They rank 26th from three point land while Missouri ranks 247th defending it. The Aggies rank 45th in near proximity shots and the Tigers rank 282nd defending that as well. Yikes. Missouri just can’t rebound the ball ranking 354th in that department while Utah State ranks 88th. To add even more pain to the punishment, Missouri has depth issues due to injuries and that could hurt them if in foul trouble. I like Utah State here and I think that they win convincingly.
Utah State PK – 2.5 stars
A&M CC vs Alabama -23.5 O/U 155.5 – Birmingham AL
This game has a feisty A&M team that is probably pretty happy to make this tournament. In saying that, they are playing with house money here against an Alabama team that has expectations though the roof as the number 1 seed. Alabama should be able to decide the score in this game being that they have all of the matchup advantages, but I do not know if they want to win by massive margin or not. There is also a chance that Bama has a rough start after going through the full SEC tournament. I will lean Corpus Christy 1st half.
Lean A&M CC 1st half +12
Charleston vs San Diego State -5.5 O/U 141.5 – Orlando FL
One would think that Charleston might have a slight home court advantage being a six hour drive away as well as a lower seed. Maybe a point or so is worth it. San Diego State has a big near proximity advantage ranking 42nd near the rim to Charleston’s defense at 279th. My big problem with San Diego State is that they are a bad road team only shooting 47.5% effective FG% away from home to Charleston at 50.3%. I really do not have a lean in this game. This is a very solid number.
Princeton vs Arizona -14.5 O/U 154.5 – Sacramento CA
Arizona fans travel well and I expect a home court advantage in California. The Cats will also have all kinds of advantages over Princeton both inside and out. I expect to see more defense from Arizona that they have shown in the past just due to how I am viewing them recently. Princeton is a far from solid team and they have not beaten anybody. There are a few NBA players for Arizona and they make a showing in this first game. The efficiency sites says -13 but the spread is -14.5. It’s about correct. Maybe a first half look isn’t a bad one at the -8.
Strong Lean Arizona -14.5
UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor -11 O/U 143 – Denver CO
UC Santa Barbara is a pretty solid team and they might get some cheers in Denver Colorado due to all of the Zags fans being there. Baylor has a very solid offense ranking 53rd in effective FG%. They should be able to score anywhere vs the Gauchos, but UC Santa Barbara will slow this game down some only ranking 312th in average possession length. I wish UC Santa Barbara could rebound the ball better on offense because that is where Baylor could give up some second chance points. Baylor has been a terrible team away from home ranking 347th in the nation in away splits. I could see a rough start for both teams shooting the ball. I kind of like the 1st half under some but I will wait and see if this total goes up.
1st half under 66.5 for 1.5 stars but wait to see if a 67 pops
NC State vs Creighton -5.5 O/U 148 – Denver CO
Ah NC State. You beat Virginia Tech, Duke, and Miami this year scoring over 80 points, yet you lose to Clemson three times and Syracuse on the road. This NC State team is pretty tough for me to read, but I also know that they have no defense to show. As good as big man DJ Burns can be on offense, this team doesn’t seem very interested on both sides of the ball. Creighton has advantages down low with Kalkbrenner who should be able to score at will. Trey Alexander shoots over 44% from three while two others for Creighton shoot over 36%. I think Creighton wins this game with margin.
We have an great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 from @ShotQualityBets comes on to break down some more MARCH MADNESS 2023! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Justin comes on and the guys get right into how the committee did at seeding these brackets! After that, the guys break down the FULL SLATE of Friday tournament games with some FREE PLAYS! Finally, Kiev and Justin end the show by talking about what they might like for the play in games of the NCAA tournament! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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What a lackluster finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler at 10-1 wins it, capturing his second victory on Tour this season. His five-stroke victory was the largest on Tour this year. Scheffler now joins Jon Rahm and Max Homa as the only players to have won multiple events this season. With that victory, Scheffler has now returned to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s also the defending champion at two of the four upcoming events which is also something to keep an eye on.
The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida-type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways which is something you don’t see too often in the Sunshine state. Given it’s not a ‘designated vent’ we still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. Sam Burns is going for a three-peat at the Valspar Championship this week. If he’s able to do so, he’ll be the first player since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.
In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned in 2021 when Sam Burns captured his second consecutive victory on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook.
Innisbrook Resort has four courses: Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.
The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was also part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.
This is one of the newer events on Tour making its debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that period, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled to hold down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and has been the presenting sponsor since then.
Most Tournament Wins:
2, K.J. Choi (’02, ’06), Retief Goosen (’03, ’09), Paul Casey (’18, ’19), Sam Burns (’21, ’22)
72-Hole Record:
266, Vijay Singh (2004)
18-Hole Record:
61, Padraig Harrington (1st round, 2012)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only seven holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were No. 10, 12, and 17.
The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth-lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee is especially crucial this week given the rough has grown out from 3.00″ to 3.75″.
There are five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 8 which played just 0.083 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 17 which played 0.025 strokes under par.
The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.
The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is listed at 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.
Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.
Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players somehow hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.
Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is a relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16 – 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Valspar Championship. Only four of the world’s top fifteen players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:
Justin Thomas (+1100) has four top-20 finishes in his five appearances at Innisbrook Resort. His best finish during that span was last year when he finished T3. Last week at the PLAYERS, he had his worst finish of the year (T60) losing 1.11 strokes on the green. He has yet to win an event this season but has six top-25 finishes in his eight starts on Tour this year.
Jordan Spieth (+1200) will make his first start at Innisbrook Resort since 2018 when he missed the cut. Outside of that year, he has been great at this event winning in 2015. Spieth has had his struggles his season but has turned it around as of late finishing T4 and T19 in his last two starts on Tour.
Sam Burns (+1600) has now won the Valspar in back-to-back years. However, his recent play has been sub-par as he has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on Tour. Last week at the PLAYERS, he finished T35 gaining strokes in nearly every category.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1800) has had an up-and-down season to start the year. He’s competed in eight events finishing top-15 in four of them and missing the cut in three. Fitzpatrick made his debut at the Valspar in 2018 where he missed the cut. In his only other appearance at Innisbrook, he finished T5.
Previous Winners in the field:
Sam Burns (’22, ’21), Adam Hadwin (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Kevin Streelman (’13), Luke Donald (’12), Gary Woodland (’11)
Notable Withdraws:
Callum Tarren, Taylor Montgomery, Anders Albertson, Aaron Rai
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Sam Burns: T12/ T30/ 1/ 1
Matthew NeSmith: T21/ T3
Justin Thomas: T10/ T18/ MC/ T13/ T3
Jordan Spieth: T7/ T20/ 1/ T18/ MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Zac Blair: MC/ MC/ MC
Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC
Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC
Cody Gribble: MC/ MC
Sam Ryder: T68/ MC/ MC/ MC
Peter Malnati: MC/ MC/ MC/ T60/ MC/ MC
Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ T59/ MC/ MC
Michael Kim: MC/ T52/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Sam Burns (-17)
Price: 25-1
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
Price: 80-1
2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
Price: 25-1
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
Price: 25-1
Picks (Outrights):
Keegan Bradley (+2500) – DraftKings (Keegan WD on Wednesday)
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – DraftKings (Replacing Keegan Bradley)
0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Davis Riley (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Wyndham Clark (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Gary Woodland (+4000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Taylor Moore (+7000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Nate Lashley (+9000) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units (Update 1.21 Units)
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Hadwin (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Hadwin started off the season strong making the cut in each of his nine starts before failing to make the weekend at Bay Hill. He followed that missed cut up with a T13 finish at the PLAYERS last week gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. Hadwin has some interesting course history at Innisbrook. He won the Valspar Championship in 2017 and followed that up with a T12 finish in 2018. In the following two appearances here, he missed the cut. However, last year he put together a much better performance finishing T7. He’s not long off the tee ranking 135th but given the narrow fairways accuracy is more important this week where he ranks 24th. His approach play has also improved this season ranking 36th in strokes gained. Given his recent form and course history, Hadwin seems like he should be able to grab his second consecutive top-20 finish at Innisbrook.
Justin Rose (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Justin Rose captured his first PGA TOUR win early this season at Pebble Beach since the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Following that victory, he fell into a rut missing the cut in each of his next two starts. Last week, he seemed to figure things out off the tee at the PLAYERS finishing T6. His approach play has also been fantastic this season gaining strokes in each of his last five starts. The last time he played in the Valspar Championship was back in 2021 when he missed the cut for just his second time here. Out of his eleven appearances at Innisbrook, Rose has finished inside the top 20 six times. He seems to be in great form and given his extensive course knowledge, Rose seems primed for another great finish.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Ben Griffin (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
After missing the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Griffin has been playing some great golf finishing T21, T14, and T35 in his last three starts. He’ll be making his debut at Innisbrook. Griffin ranks 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 64th in SG: Approach. Last week, at TPC Sawgrass which has a similar green complex, he gained strokes on green, so I’m not too concerned about his putting. Despite the rookie making his debut at the Valspar, he seems like a great course fit.
Brandon Wu (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Brandon Wu has been on a hot streak finishing T14 and T19 in his last two starts. Last week at the PLAYERS, he gained 1.88 strokes putting which is a great sign as we head to Innisbrook this week which has a similar green complex. Last year at the Valspar Championship, he finished T33 gaining strokes in every category besides around the green. He ranks 57th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 49th in Driving Accuracy both of which are key stats this week. Wu should be able to continue his great form at the Valspar Championship and finish inside the top 40.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 5.17 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 Michigan State vs 10 USC – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
Here is the bottom half of the bracket. Let’s Go!
6 Kentucky (-4) vs 11 Providence O/U145
The Wildcats started off the season slow after a first round tournament exit last year as a #2 Seed losing to St. Peter’s. The struggled to the midpoint of the season when they lost to South Carolina. They righted the ship going 11-3 to closeout the SEC slate, before falling in the SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt. The Kentucky offense is explosive, and they can score in bunches. They also give up points in bunches as well. They also struggle from the free throw line which could be their undoing. Providence comes into the tourney ice cold after losing 4 of their last 5 including some very uninspired performances. If they want to hang with Kentucky they better figure things out quickly. Both of the metrics on these teams are very similar so I don’t have a side here. Both are highly efficient on offense although not really fast tempo teams. I lean to the over, but I am 0-7 on games involving Providence and Kentucky this season, so I’m just gonna sit this one out.
3 Kansas State (-8.5) vs 14 Montana State O/U 139.5
The KSU Wildcats as a #3 seed surprised some folks, but I think it is probably well deserved. They went 11-7 in the toughest conference in the nation and had wins against Kansas and Texas. They play fast and can score with anyone, but have also shown they can win grind it out games against the likes of Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Markquis Nowell is the kind of player that can takeover a game, and they’ve got plenty of Senior experience on their side. Their major strength is on the defensive side of the ball where they can stifle opponents for long stretches. Montana State is hot having won 17 of 19. They are a very good half court high ball pressure defensive team. That works in the Big Sky, but both times they have stepped up in class this year against Arizona and Oregon they have lost by 20. Their offense just isn’t going to be good enough to keep up, and they only shoot 32% from distance. The money is coming in on Montana State, but I’m staying away. I lean KSU here -8.5.
7 Michigan State (-2) vs 10 USC O/U 137.5
Sparty is back in the tournament again with a middling seed this season. Coach Izzo tends to get the best from his groups in March, but he needs to get more consistent offense from this group for MSU to have a chance to make a run. They do shoot the 3 Ball at 39.5% good for 4th in the nation so if they have a run of games where those keep dropping it could happen. The problem is they play slow and only shoot 3’s on 33.3% of their shots. Other than the last few minutes against Iowa a few weeks ago the defense is it’s usual solid self. USC has Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis who shoots…a lot. They have lacked consistency as well for most of the season holding a win over UCLA, but also losing to FGCU and Oregon State. USC does gum up the paint very well and is 9th in effective FG% defense so I think they’ll slow this one down a little and try to turn this one into a cage match. I’m on the Under here 137.5 for 1.5 Units.
2 Marquette (-10.5) vs 15 Vermont O/U 144.5
The Marquette crew earns a #2 Seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference Tourney. It is well deserved as Shaka Smart has this team rolling in all facets. They own a pair of victories over UCONN, Creighton, and Xavier. They boast a Top 10 offense that always seems to come up with clutch buckets when needed. Big East player of the year Tyler Kolak can shoot it and dish it with the best in the country. Vermont is no stranger to the tournament, and they always seem to give some poor top seed a run for their money. They shoot the ball well and don’t turn it over ranking 9th in the country giving it up on only 14.2% of their possessions. That’s a recipe to hang with anyone, and I could see it happening here, but unfortunately they won’t have enough scoring in the end to drop this Golden Eagles Squad who I have coming out of the East and going to the Final Four. No plays on this game though as I think it is right on the number.
I’ll be back next week to review the same region for the Sweet Sixteen!
We have an great show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks comes on to break down some MARCH MADNESS 2023! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Kyle comes on to break down a few play in games as well as going over some early tournament trends. After that, the guys break down the FULL SLATE of Thursday tournament games with some FREE PLAYS! Finally, Kiev and Kyle end the show by talking about what they might like for Friday! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll share some insights on half of the bracket tonight, and the other half tomorrow evening.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 USC vs 10 Michigan State – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
We will take a look at the play-in game and the top half of the bracket tonight, and the bottom half tomorrow night.
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern (-2.5) vs Fairleigh Dickinson O/U 145.5
FDU got into the dance by default with Merrimack still making a D1 transition and not eligible for the NCAA Tourney. They are also the lowest efficiency team in the tournament. They have the third worst rated defense in all of D1 rankings 361st. About the only thing they do well when their opponent has the ball is turn them over. The poor FDU defense will match-up with one of the worst offenses in the country in Texas Southern. They got in thanks to a Cinderella run as an 8 Seed in the SWAC Tourney. I lean FDU as even though they have an awful defense, I just can’t bring myself to play a team that shoots 28.7% from distance like Texas Southern in a game like this.
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD
Purdue will face the winner of the play-in cupcakes, and shouldn’t have any problems. The Boilermakers earned their #1 seed by winning the Big Ten regular and Post-season Crowns. They are led by 7’4″ Zach Edey. They pack it in around him on the defensive end and slow the game down to take advantage of his size and passing ability inside on offense. Purdue does have two weak points and I believe one of them will cost them a game in this region. They don’t turnover their opponents as the are 329th in that category on defense. The bigger one is the lack of consistent shooting from 3-point range hitting at just 32.6%. I think they get challenged in the Round of 32 by whoever gets through the 8/9 Match-up.
8 Memphis (-2.5) vs 9 FAU O/U 150.5
The Owls of FAU dominated the Conference USA regular and post-season. They have 7’1″ Center Vladislav Goldin who could hang with Edey should they get by Memphis. The Owls are Top 20 in both offensive and defensive Field Goal Efficiency and will be a tough out for anyone. Memphis’ Deandre Williams will be the key to this game for the Tigers. If he can exploit a potential size match-up against FAU’s guards on the perimiter it could give Memphis an edge. Memphis just knocked off the #1 team in the land, Houston to win the American conference tournament and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Tigers struggle to protect the glass giving up quite a few second chances. I think FAU is a really well coached team and I believe if they take care of the ball they can get the win. Just a lean for me however.
5 Duke (-6.5) vs 12 Oral Roberts O/U 146
So the real question for me here is how good is Oral Roberts. They shellacked the Summit League. Two years ago as a 15 Seed they made it to the Sweet Sixteen and were a bucket away from the Elite Eight. They are fun to watch as they play at a fast tempo, but also are the #1 team in the country at taking care of the ball. They shoot 37% from behind the arc and are the #7 team in the country in effective FG%. They also have 7’5″ Connor Vanover inside. Duke is peaking and getting healthy at the right time. The Blue Devils have one and done sensation Kyle Filipowski to contend with inside and at 7 Feet tall he can at least almost stand nose to nose with Vanover. I think Duke will slow this game down and let their defense take over. That being said Oral Roberts could shoot themselves into this one if they are hot from outside. However…. I’m on the Blue Devils -6.5 1.5 Units.
4 Tennessee (-10.5) vs 13 Louisiana O/U 136.5
The Volunteers lost guard Zakai Ziegler to a torn ACL on Feb 28th. They are still trying to piece together their rotation as we head into the tournament and after an 18-3 start they’ve limped to 5-7 in their last 12 contests. Rick Barnes also has an awful history in the tournament both straight up and against the spread. That being said I think the pieces that remain in Knoxville are strong enough on defense to stifle this Louisiana attack. They are the top team in the nation in defending the 3 point shot and 2nd in defensive effective field goal percent. They will also have a definitive size advantage and are #5 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Louisiana is middle of the pack on defense and slightly above average on offense. They certainly were in every conference game in the Sun Belt, but they lost by double digits both times they stepped up in class when playing Texas and Drake. It will take some fast break points and solid shooting for them to sniff 70 in this one. I’ve got it 75-62 so I am on Tennessee -10.5 for 2 Units.
