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Milwaukee at Sacramento +2 (O/U 244.5) 10:00pm ET

The high flying, high scoring Sacramento Kings take on arguably the #1 team in basketball Monday night. Averaging 132 points a game in their L9 and have not been held to under 122 points in almost three weeks. They have won 8 of their last 9 and 4 out of 5 at home.

Now taking on the Bucks is a tough task, but I believe they landed them at the best moment. With Milwaukee playing their 4th road game in their L5, and have traveled quite a bit since March 1st. Now flip the script. When Sacramento arrived home on March 1st, they played only 5 games and made one round of traveling, that was too Phoenix. Winning 4 of those 5, while beating the Clippers, the Knicks and the Suns. Ironically though, they have played 12 of their last 19 away from home.

The Kings have shot 53% in their L5 and 39% from downtown. This will need to keep up in order to beat Milwaukee, luckily for them the Bucks have struggled defending the 3 recently. Giving up 38% in their L5, but more importantly opponents staying in games with the way of the 3. The Kings get to the line and do it often, averaging 29 free throw attempts a game, as well as committing only 11 turnovers a game in their L5. Both of these are important when fatigue sets in late in this game for Milwaukee. If you wanted to find a weakness on the Bucks, they average 15 turnovers in their L5. Meaning extra possessions for Sacramento and getting bonus stops.

Backing Sacramento as dogs and on 1 day’s rest has been a recipe for success. They’re 26-11-1 ATS this season on 1-DR, 4-0 ATS in their L4. As dogs they have won and covered in 5 of their last 6. As good as Milwaukee is, recently they’re 1-4 ATS their L5 vs teams over .500, as well as 6-10-1 ATS overall for the season playing teams over .500 on the road. As opposed to 5-0 ATS vs teams under .500 their L5.

I’m on Sac town tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!

Kings +2 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units

Let’s get this in the winner’s circle to kick off March Madness week!

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Portland at New Orleans -2 (O/U 221.5) 7:00pm ET

Things might look a little different Sunday night when these two teams take the court. The Pelicans went into Portland and beat them just 11 days ago, Simons only played for a short time and left the game and Nurkic still was not back yet. Well, Nurkic is back, Simons was tremendous two nights ago in his true comeback game, and the Blazers come into tonight in a huge revenge spot. The Pels have won the last 4 out of 5 in this series, but Simons/Nurkic were vacant in 3 of the 4 losses.

Now comes the elephant in the room, Dame is out and can they perform with out him. Surprisingly they have held their own without him. If you talk to me, you know my opinion. “When the true stars miss a game, the other guys step up.” It’s all mental, the guys around him play in the NBA, they’re good enough in the NBA and their best characters appear when truly needed.

Yes this is game 6 of a 6 game road trip, but due to injuries some of the starters are all actually well rested. The Blazers have played good ball as of late IMO. Winners in 2 of 5, but more importantly playing the 76ers down to the wire in a game they most definitely could have won. With the 3 losses coming against three strong Eastern Conference playoff teams.

The Pelicans on the other hand are reeling quickly, comparable to a caught fish on the verge of extinction. Now one game out of the play-in bracket, Zion is still not on the court and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. Also New Orleans will be playing its 2nd straight game without high % shooter Brandon Ingram. This is a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me. Let’s go BLAZERS!

Trail Blazers +2 (BetRivers -110) 2 units

Trail Blazers ML +110 (BetRivers) 0.5 unit

New York at LA Lakers -2.5 (O/U 226) 9:00pm ET

There is an abundance of indicators for this to be a low scoring affair. Like I stated in my previous article, the Lakers have improved tremendously since the All-Star break. Mostly in the defensive categories. While they still do run at a high pace, it hasn’t really shown up on the scoreboard. Mostly because they’re unable to shoot at a high rate. Yes I know they came off a game where they shot 56%(field) and 43%(3’s), but that was against Toronto who my local high school team would be able to score against right now. Previous to that in their last 6 games, minus the Golden State game since they have just completely quit playing defense. The Lake show has shot 44% in those 5 games.

Now let’s discuss the Knicks, they are playing their 6th game in 10 days, with 5 of them being on the road in 4 different cities. Fatigue was stated by Josh Hart in a recent interview and it surely has shown. Averaging 105 points a game in their last 3, while shooting an incompetent 36%. Brunson will miss his 2nd straight game, leaving the Knicks without their signal caller.

New York has gone under 3 straight, also staying under on the road in 4 of 6. While the Lakers have gone under 4 of 5 at home, also 6 of 9 with 1 pushing. I will land on the under here.

Under 226 (Caesars -110) 1 units

To anyone tailing, let’s keep this run going!

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Toronto at LA Lakers +2.5 (O/U 224.5) 10:30pm ET

The Lakers have vastly improved since the All-Star break, specifically in one category, defensively. Granted, they really don’t have any signature wins, but you can only beat what they put in front of you. Winning 5 of their last 7 games since the break, as well as winning 5 of their last 6 home games. Keep in mind they have been Lebron-less in their last 3, but still finding ways to win. The ‘Brow’ has definitely stepped up into that dynamic role, averaging 33 points a game in his L5. Even with a bloody nose after getting a right hook from David Roddy Wednesday, he came back in and led them to victory.

Now for their defense, they have averaged 110.7 points a game since the break, which drops to 107 a game at home. Also only giving up 42.7% shooting in those seven. I like the fact they’re 9-4 ATS as short dogs, this spot fits them perfectly. As well as 7-4 ATS on 2 days rest, or what I call the extra day. They have seemed to perform well vs lower level competition, going 16-7 ATS vs teams under .500.

Toronto is playing 7 of 8 away, and as good as there offense has looked at ‘times’, they’re only averaging 102.5 points a game. They have lost 5 of 7, and teams are shooting all over them at over 52% a game since the break, and quite honestly a high % most of the season.

In the midst of a tight playoff race, every game is a must win all the way out for the Lake show. I think Toronto’s rough schedule catches up with them tonight, and they will run out of gas. Providing the Lakers with their 3rd straight win.

Lakers +2.5 (Caesars -110) 1.2 units

Good luck to anyone if you’re tailing, I’m BACK!