AFC West – The AFC West was supposed to be the best in football before the 2022 season got started, but shorty after, we found that the Broncos, as we predicted, had a ton of problems.  The Raiders…. were still the Raiders.  I guess some things never change.  One thing that certainly hasn’t changed is the top of this division with the Mahomes to Kelce connection.  This could go down in the legendary books someday with Montana to Rice.  The Chargers should be a good team if somehow they could get out of their own way.  Denver’s expectations should be more realistic, and the Raiders will have the pressure of following the Las Vegas Knights path to a championship.   The AFC West plays the NFC North which I would call pretty fortunate, and the AFC East which should be rough.   Let’s see how it’s looking for the boys out west!

Divisional Odds:  Chiefs -165 – Chargers +340 – Broncos +550 – Raiders +1100

Kansas City Chiefs – 

Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -120

2022 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  11.71

Schedule: Hard – at large @ Jacksonville, vs Philadelphia, vs Cincinnati

Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard

Key losses: T Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Andrew Wylie, S Juan Thornhill, DE Charles Omenihu, DT Khalen Saunders, DE Frank Clark, WR Mecole Hardman, DE Carlos Dunlap

Key additions:  RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Donavan Smith, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, G Nick Allegretti, QB Blain Gabbert

Key draft picks: Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah, WR Rashee Rice, T Wanya Morris

Summary:  When you are a super bowl champion and you pay your quarterback, you lose a lot of players to free agency.   Now is that a bad thing for the Chiefs?   Maybe somewhat, but I can certainly attest that you can put a bunch of mediocre guys on the Chiefs with only Mahomes and Kelce, and this team will be one of the best in the league.   it looks like a lot of teams decided to pay some former Chiefs players this year in free agency.  Whether teams should flock to guys on super bowl rosters is very debatable for another time, but now let’s see what’s going on for 2023.  The skill positions really shouldn’t miss a beat with guys like Kadarius Tony and MVS at the receiver positions.  The offensive line will be reworked which could be a bit rough in the beginning of the season, similar to what we saw last year with the Bengals.   The defensive front looks pretty healthy with Chris Jones stuffing up the middle to allow LB Nick Bolton freed up to make some tackles.   The Chiefs defense was just very average last year and were one of the worst in the Red Zone.   Now average actually means below average when your offense is so great due to the fact that the primary formation on defense was expecting pass and the double-wide prevent.  It would be interesting to see how this defense really performs if the Chiefs are not putting up some points.  Now this is a very very big if because the Chiefs didn’t lose a game by more than four points all last season.   I think that this team should be the tops of the division, but I also think they would be fine to just make the playoffs if all goes bad being that this is a honeymoon type of year.

My Number: 9.51

Action Under 11.5 wins

Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 4.75

2. Los Angeles Chargers – 

Vegas win total: 9.5

2022 Wins:  10

Pythagorean Wins:  8.42

Schedule: Hard – at large @ Tennessee, vs Dallas, vs Baltimore

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses – G Matt Feiler, LB Troy Reeder, ILB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan

Key additions: OC Kellen Moore, ILB Eric Kendricks, DT Nick Williams,

Key draft picks: WR Quentin Johnson, Edge Tuli Tuipulotu, LB Daiyan Henley, WR Derius Davis, QB Max Duggan

Summary:  This Chargers team is very hard to figure out.  If you remember back in 2021, head coach Brandon Staley was very aggressive and it was sometimes too much at the wrong times.  For 2022 season, Staley wasn’t aggressive enough and it showed during that playoff 2nd half debacle against the Jaguars.   The Bolts have a ton of talent, yet also make bunch of boneheaded mistakes, and I am not even sure new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will make much of a better impact being that Moore has also made some strange play-calling mistakes back in Dallas.   I also wonder why this team drafted a bunch of TCU wide receivers when instead their biggest weakness was against the run.  The Bolts also grabbed Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan late in the draft.   Maybe they are closet Frog fans, but I guess they could have done worse.   On offense, this team should still be solid as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t pull any more contract shenanigans.   The defense is what really worries me ranking 27th in opponent rushing yards and 29th in opponent rush EPA.  Going with wide receivers rather than three techniques and linebackers in the draft is a for sure head scratcher.  This team over-achieved greatly last year, and I think that they could regress due to bone headed coaching and   I am not too optimistic on this team, but let’s see if Brandon Staley has learned from his huge game managing mistakes.   For the time being, I am taking the under in their win totals.

My Number:  8.21 wins

Action – Play the under

Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 1.25

3.  Denver Broncos – 

Vegas win total:  8.5

2022 Wins:  5

Pythagorean Wins:  6.63

Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Washington, vs Cleveland, @Houston

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses: Coach Nathanial Hackett, DT Dre’Mont Jones, T Calvin Anderson, LB Jake Martin, RB Mike Boone, DE DeShawn Williams, CB Ronald Darby, G Tom Compton

Key additions:  Coach Sean Payton, OC Joe Lombardi, DC Vance Joseph, RT Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers, DE Zach Allen, QB Jared Stidham, RB Samaje Perine, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Temon Smith, DE Frank Clark and a ton of dudes

Key draft picks: WR Marvin Mims, LB Drew Sanders, CB Riley Moss, C Alex Forsyth

Summary:  The 2022 Denver Broncos may have then the most disappointing and over-hyped football team from last year with apologies to the Colts.   They only scored over 20 points five different times last season.  Sean Payton moves in to take over an already amazing defense with a lot of work to do on offense.   Former Saints offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes in with some work to do, but the big question is if he can revive team leader and diva Russell Wilson.  The good news is that he has a lot of talent to work with.  I imagine that this offense will go back to it’s Sean Payton type roots of pounding the football with guys like Javante Williams when he comes back fully healthy.   Javante may not start right away and will have to be eased back into the starting lineup, while newly acquired Samaje Perine who can be a bruiser when needed.   We should see plenty of check downs as well to the running back, and let’s hope Wilson is able to get the ball past those massive defensive ends with their hands up in the air.   I also hope that quarterback coach Davis Webb is able to re-instill some confidence in Wilson utilizing his old scrambling abilities.  The defense shouldn’t miss a beat this year and they might even get better with defensive coordinator and former Broncos Coach Vance Joseph back in the Mile high city.  Denver’s defense was a little weak last year against the run, but they are betting that newly acquired defensive ends Frank Clark and Zach Allen can come into help stop some of that.  Denver was the most injured team of 2022, so I expect some positive regression in that department.

My number:  8.68

Action – Lean over

Denver Broncos Power Rating:  -2

4.  Las Vegas Raiders – 

Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -120

2022 Wins:  6

Pythagorean Wins:  8.32

Schedule: Hard –  at large vs Pittsburgh, vs New York Giants, @ Indianapolis

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: QB Derek Carr, TE Darrin Waller, TE Forster Moreau, QB Jarrett Stidham, CB Rock Ya-sin, DT Andrew Billings, ILB Denzel Perryman, DE Clelin Ferrell, CB Anthony Averett

Key additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jacobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, LB Robert Spillane, CB Brandon Facyson, QB Brian Hoyer, TE Austin Hooper and a bunch of second rate dudes.

Key draft picks: Edge Tyree Wilson, TE Michael Mayer, DL Bryon Young, WR Tre Tucker, QB Aidan O’Connell

Summary:  The Las Vegas Raiders went from the second most over-achieving team of 2021 to the most under-achieving team for 2022.  Their Pythagorean win total is 8.32 compared to their six actual wins.  Being in the Chiefs division certainly doesn’t help, but now the pressure should be on Josh McDaniels to get this team to the playoffs.  Let’s talk about the offense.  There is no more of an example of robbing Peter to pay Paul than getting rid of Derek Carr and bringing on Jimmy G.  Both quarterbacks have similar skills, but I also have to wonder if Jimmy G just benefitted from being in great systems over the years, more than he is a good quarterback.   If Kyle Shanahan doesn’t want him, then something seems wrong.  Earlier this year, the Raiders traded stud TE Darren Waller just to draft another stud in Michael Mayer.   They picked up former Patriot Jacoby Meyers to compliment Devonte Adams while keeping Hunter Renfrow in the slot.  The Raiders offensive line ranks number twelve in Lineups.  Can Josh McDaniels put it all together this year?   I tend to think not.   He is a good play caller, but not a great coach.   On the other side of the ball, the Raiders were brutal against the pass ranking 31st in opponent drop-back EPA.   They drafter Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech to try and speed up that pass rush that ranked 30th in sacks.   That was a good move at least.  They also signed guys like Marcus Epps and Brandon Facyson to help the secondary.  Their defensive line should be average at best while their linebacking crew remains very untested.  I am not sure if I trust DC Patrick Graham all that much this year, and I also think that there will be a lot of wait and see for this Raiders team.   I have the Raiders a little below average until they can prove me wrong.  Their hard schedule could be their undoing for the 2023 season.

My Number:  6.66 wins

Action – No Play

Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating:  -1.5

*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team

The AFC East – Was a stronger division than it really looked last year.  I feel like some bad luck really set in for some of these teams.  The Bills were once again the power house that struggled to finish games, while not being able to produce a good game plan in the post season.   The Jets had pretty much everything except a quarterback, the Dolphins lost their quarterback and had no backup, while the Patriots hired a bone-head for an offensive coordinator.  I also do not think that three of these teams had good off-seasons, which you will see in my previews.   The AFC East plays the NFC East and the AFC West this season.  This is a rough schedule in my opinion, and the only thing that is nice is the lighter travel.  Both the NFC East and the AFC East have high floors and high ceilings.  Let’s take a closer look.

Divisional Odds:  Bills +120 – Jets +270 – Dolphins +300 – Patriots +800

1. Buffalo Bills – 

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120

2022 Wins:  13.5

Pythagorean Wins:  12.93

Schedule: Hard – at large vs Jacksonville, vs Tampa, @ Cincinnati

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, QB Case Keenum, RB Devin Singletary, G Roger Saffold

Key additions: G Conner McGovern, WR Deonte Harty, OLB Leonard Floyd, DE Poona Ford, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, QB Kyle Allen.

Key Draft Picks:  TE Dalton Kincaid, G O’Cyrus Torrence, LB Dorian Williams

Summary:  The Bills once again missed their window of opportunity last year in the playoffs during a snowy day against the Bengals in Buffalo.   Now one would think that snow should actually help a northern team like the Buffalo Bills, but the sharper people last season knew that it was actually advantage Cincinnati.   This is a problem.   The Bills are more of a passing offense that utilizes Josh Allen’s scrambling abilities to his best, while running the ball more sparingly to keep defenses honest.   They did not have a big back to break through some of the larger defensive fronts in the AFC.  They also just let their top running back Devon Singletary go to Houston.  This type of focus away from the run game does not bode well for bad weather teams.  Now the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid to play a hybrid tight end/slot position in this offense.  As you can see, they really care about finesse.   I really do not like the downgrade last year at offensive coordinator from Brian Dabol to Ken Dorsey.  I also feel that the Bills took a step back on defense, more specifically with their pass rush only ranking in the middle of the pack in pressure rate and sacks.   The most glaring loss on defense was their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears.  Now maybe Tulane draft pick Dorian Williams becomes a super-star, but Edmonds was one of the best linebackers in the league, and his leadership may be missed here.  Finally, the Bills have to deal with an improved division along with a first place schedule.   If Josh Allen gets hurt in any way, I do not believe that Kyle Allen is an adequate backup to run this heavy pass offense with quarterback designed runs.  I also think that Diggs, while a special talent, is starting to creep up in age along with Vonn Miller and AJ Klein.

My Number:  10.22

Action – Lean Under

Power Rating: 4.75

2. New York Jets – 

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -130

Pythagorean Wins:  7

2022 Wins:  8.31

Schedule: Medium – vs Atlanta, vs Houston, @ Cleveland

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses: DE Nathan Shepard, DT Sheldon Rankings, G Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, G Dan Feeney, RT George Fant, LB Kwon Alexander

Key additions: QB Aaron Rogers, OC Nathanial Hackett, WR Allen Lazard, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Quinton Jefferson, WR Randall Cobb, DT Al Woods, RB Breece Hall is back from injury.

Whom they drafted:  Edge Will McDonald, C Joe Tippmann, T Carter Warren, RB Israel Abanikanda

Summary:  There is a new sheriff in town.  Broadway Joe even offered him his jersey number to continue at number 12!   Of course Rogers declined, but let’s hope that for Jets fans, this becomes the best move in the NFL for the 2023 season.  Looking at the numbers from last year, the Jets were a much better team than their record showed.  NY under-achieved by 1.31 wins from their Pythagorean win total.   hey ranked number six in defensive EPA while they had a good running game before Breece Hall got hurt for the season.  It doesn’t take football coach to know that this team was greatly missing a quarterback.   As much as I disliked Aaron Rogers as a Bears fan,  one has to admit that this team made a move to attempt to win a championship and Rogers still has something still left in the tank.   I honestly think that he was burned out in Green Bay due to front office issues over the past three seasons or so.   Has Rogers faltered in the playoffs?   Yes, and he certainly has some Lebron James in him, but maybe this year is the one where he can prove the doubters wrong.   This offseason, the Jets did have to shed some guys but not nearly as much as other teams with less rookie deals.   The Jets will have a new offense with Nathaniel Hackett coming in as offensive coordinator.  My only concern is that he wasn’t a good play caller in Denver, but maybe with Rogers, there will be more comfort in this very important aspect to running the offense.  This is why we see many guys come in from Green Bay.   I hate to side with the public narrative on this one, but I could see the Jets winning this division more than the Buffalo Bills.   This team has a massive +12 net games of rest ranking number 1 in the league.

My Number:  10.66

Action –Jets to win division +270

New York Jets Power Rating:  3.25

3.  Miami Dolphins –

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120

Pythagorean Wins:  8.82

2022 Wins: 9

Schedule: Hard – vs Carolina, vs Tennessee, @ Baltimore

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses:  OLB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, CB Byron Jones, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Engram, LT Eric Fisher

Key additions: LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Geeney, T Isaiah Wynn, S Deshon Elliot and a bunch of lower level dudes.

Whom they drafted: CB Cam Smith from South Carolina and that is really about it.

Summary:  The Miami Dolphins at nine wins last year unfortunately under-achieved due to the injury woes of QB Tua Tagovailoa.  This poor quarterback suffered a bunch of concussions and I felt that he was just one away from retirement.   Think about what I said right there.   Now that the Miami Dolphins got their back up in…..   Wait…..   Mike White? So you are telling me that you spent all of that money on players just to have Mike White and Skyler Thompson as backup plans?   This Miami team has really dropped the ball here.  They were not active in the draft at all being that they had only few picks to play with, but I thought that there were a couple of quarterbacks out there like Jake Haener and even Stetson Bennet that could have filled the void if/when poor Tua suffers his next concussion.  I am absolutely blown away that this team has ignored such an important factor when they have so much talent to compete in the AFC South.   The defensive side wasn’t pretty last year when the blitz didn’t work out.  They finished the year ranking 22nd in defensive EPA per play.  Seventh in opponent rush EPA was good, but 26th in opponent pass EPA won’t help vs a much improved AFC East.   The Dolphins picked up a ton of guys in free agency, but most of them are second rate and something you do not see much of on championship teams.   The schedule is going from easy to hard this year.  I have to go under the Dolphins win total and assume that Tua will not be healthy for the full 2023 NFL Season.

My Number:  8.41

Summary: Under 9.5 – 1 star

Miami Dolphins Power rating:  2.75

4.  New England Patriots – 

Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the under -125

2022 Wins:  8

Pythagorean Wins:  8.59

Schedule: Hard – vs New Orleans, vs Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses:  WR Jacoby Meyers, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith, S Devin McCourty

Key additions:  OC Bill O’Brien, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Alvin Anderson, LB Chris Board, T Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki and a bunch of dudes

Key Draft Picks: CB Christian Gonzales, Edge Keion White, S Marte Mapu, C Jake Andrews and a bunch of Patriot type hopes.

Summary:  The Patriots were once thought of as the smartest team in football until they let former coach Matt Patricia, who was known for defense, attempt to run the offense for 2022.  I mean, I can’t even fathom a worse decision coming from this organization.   There also was a very early quarterback controversy with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe that they failed to address which really hurt the confidence of their young Alabama quarterback.  Just watching Jones on the sidelines yell at Patricia all game long made for some amazing drama.  Now the big question is, did the patriots really change all that much from last year?   Not really.  Lots of robbing Peter to pay Paul happened in the offseason in free agency .  This offense last year ranked 24th in EPA per play with a defense that ranked 3rd.   Now this was on an easy schedule.    The Patriots were average at best.  Now that the Patriots have themselves slotted the HARDEST schedule in the league from a Vegas win total perspective, I just cannot imagine that new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will be making a big splash having to play the NFC East and the AFC West.   My number is 7.3 wins, so I agree with the market here.

My Number:  7.3 wins

Summary:  No Play

New England Patriots Power Rating:  0

*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team