Lots of great action today in MLB and some fantastic horse races. I’m gonna give you a free play in MLB and then hope to make some money this afternoon on the ponies.
My analysis turns to San Francisco today where the Giants take on the Royals in interleague action at 3:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Giants -136, Royals +116 and the Over/Under is sitting at 8 juiced to the over at -120.
For me this is all about the starting pitchers. Sean Manaea goes for the Giants as he is their latest reconstruction project after reviving the careers of Kevin Gausman and Alex Cobb. Sean had a rough 2022 campaign that saw him post a 4.96 ERA. He did have a little bad luck leaving guys on base, but his barrel rate was up to over 9% and his punchouts dipped below 9.00 K/9. This year he came on in relief in his first outing and struggled giving up 3 Earned runs across 2 innings striking out one batter and walking two. I don’t expect him to be up to full stamina today and would be shocked if he pitches into the 5th no matter how his outing goes. Brady Singer gets the nod for the Royals and he is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He really got locked in last year after July 1 posting a 2.62 ERA with a K Rate over 9. The walk rate was 2.1 per 9 innings which is elite. He had 12 quality starts in 17 times out to finish up the season. Singer gets a ton of ground balls with his sinker at 49% in 2022 which was good for #11 overall for qualified starting pitchers. He was also #2 overall for pitches taken within the zone allowing him to work ahead i counts most of the time. Hitters really struggle to pickup his slider vs his sinker. He gave up one earned run over 5 innings to get a victory over the Blue Jays his first time out. This Giants lineup doesn’t have near the amount of pop as Toronto and I look for Singer to be stellar again.
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Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal +350
This is going to be a wonderful co-main event with two very good fighters matching up in the sunshine state. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal is the home dog here. Home dog? Jorge is from the state of Florida and is desperate for a win after dropping three losses in a row to the former champ Kamaru Usman and a top wrestler in Colby Covington. Jorge has a nice record of 35-16 with huge wins vs Nate Diaz, Darren Till, and Cowboy Cerrone when he still had a pulse. Although Jorge has a few submissions under his belt, he is much more of a stand up fighter who lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute. Now the big problem with Jorge is that he is not a world class wrestler or grappler like his tier 1 opponent Gilbert “Durinho” Burns and that showed in his fight with Covington. Gilbert is a BJJ black-belt from Brazil with a strong record of 21-5. His last two losses are very respectable to the biggest upcoming fighter in Khamzat Chimaev, as well as to former champ Kamaru Usman. So why the big juice on Burns? Well, it’s simply because Burns is an elite grappler who has 9 submissions to his 21 wins. Six of his victories were by KO and six were by decision. I think that his ground game could be too much for Jorge from the points side of things and Jorge’s only path to victory should be by KO. The Odds are certainly not in his favor, but keep in mind that the judges are in his home state. What I will say is that the fact that this fight is three rounds gives me some opportunity here. Three of Gilbert’s last five fights have went to decision. I personally think that with all the experience that Jorge has fighting other grapplers, he can sway off the submission moves and keep this fight going. I also think that Burns would be stupid standing toe to toe with one of the best stand up fighters in the UFC in Gamebred himself. Out of Masvidal’s 52 fights, he went to decision 29 times. In his 16 losses, only four of them were inside the distance. Right now, you can get that this fight goes to a three round decision for plus money at +125, but I also like the over 2.5 at +105. Being in the Jorge’s home state of Florida, I think that he lasts and this could actually be kind of a boring fight in general.
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Only $150 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
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Athletics vs Rays -245 O/U 7.5
Many have predicted the Oakland As to have the worst record in baseball thus far. I mean, it’s really hard to disagree when this team started out 2-4 giving up the third most runs per game at 6.83. What’s not looking good for them today is that they have Ken Waldichuk pitching who was at a 4.93 ERA and a 4.3 FIP in 35 innings in 2022. Oakland’s bullpen is also quite rough. The Rays on the other hand have Zach Eflin going had a very solid 3.56 FIP last year. This certainly explains the moneyline at -245 but the total tells a story. The Rays rank number 1 in runs per game thus far at 7.33. The total of 7.5 assumes that Oakland isn’t going to score much today. I think the safest bet this game is the Rays team total over 4.5 runs and this might hit early.
We have a great show for you today! Sig @SigLasVegas from @WagerTalk is back to talk some of the HUGE prep races this weekend and the road to the 2023 Kentucky derby! First, Kiev talks the 2023 NFL Pythagorean win totals from the 2022 season and how it has been applied for each team. Who is our under-achievers? Who over-achieved? How do we apply this data for next season! Next, Sig comes on and the guys get right into some Kentucky derby futures and some long shots! Then, the guys get into the three big prep races this weekend with The Blue Grass Stakes, The Santa Anita Derby, and the Wood Memorial! Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 287 with some FREE PLAYS and leans for the huge event in Florida. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Only $150 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
San Francisco vs Chicago White Sox -135 O/U 8
This should be a fun game to watch between two good teams that just can’t get over the hump in post season play. Both of these teams have pretty good lineups, yet also off to just mediocre starts offensively both averaging 4.3 to 4.4 runs per game. A rough strength of schedule for both teams this far is part of the reason. The White Sox are favored for a few reasons besides being at home here. For one, the reincarnation of Lance Lynn is at the helm who had a monster year in 2021 allowing a 2.69 ERA and 3.32 FIP. Last year wasn’t the same story allowing a 3.99 ERA and a 3.82 FIP. In his first start this year, his control wasn’t there. On the other side, Alex Cobb is the lead man for the Giants who had a brilliant year in 2022 at a 3.73 ERA and a 2.8 FIP. Lynn has been decent against the Giants allowing a 3.19 ERA while Cobb has pitched poorly against the White Sox allowing 21 runs over 27 innings at a 6.83 ERA. I think the number is pretty solid on the side, but I am actually looking at the total. The White Sox are the best team hitting against lefties over the past 3 years. The wind is blowing out to left field at over 10 MPH which could help manufacture HRs. I am also concerned for the White Sox bullpen some using six total pitchers yesterday to get past the Giants. Both teams are pretty good manufacturing runs. I will take the over 8 runs.
We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting from The OddsBreakers comes on to break down the 2023 Masters golf tournament and some NHL futures! First, Kiev talks about the NCAA tournament and our tournament challenge winners! Next, Patrick comes on and the guys get right into the Masters Tournament. What kind of course is it? What makes it so challenging? What kind of golfer does it take to do well in Augusta? Finally, the guys get into some NHL futures for 2023! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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Corey Conners wins the Valero Texas Open winning capturing his second victory at TPC San Antonio. Given his recent success, he’ll likely be a popular play this week especially when you factor in his finishes at Augusta National. We had a great week cashing Connors (+120 – Top 20) and Rickie Fowler (+230 – Top 10). Now, let’s get into this week’s event.
Hello Friends, and welcome to the best week of the year, The Masters. Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started.
Let’s start with Tiger Woods who will make his second start of the PGA Tour season after finishing T45 at The Genesis Invitational. For the first time playing golf since his car accident, he showed flashes of his old self giving Tiger fans hope worldwide. However, since competing earlier this season he has been involved in another scandal with his long-time girlfriend. It’s unclear what Tiger’s headspace is but regardless, it should still be exciting to watch him this week. His last victory on the PGA Tour was in the 2019 Masters. If he is somehow able to win this week, he would tie Jack Nicklaus with the most victories at Augusta National (6).
Rory McIlroy is looking to finally complete the career Grand Slam. He finished 2nd last year at Augusta posting a 64 on the final day coming up one stroke short of the 18-hole course record. His last major championship victory was back in 2014 so we’ll see if he can finally become the sixth player to complete the quest.
World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler will look to become the first player to win back-to-back Masters since Tiger Woods in 2001-02. He’s already won twice on Tour this year picking up wins at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship.
Jon Rahm has only one major championship victory (2021 U.S. Open) despite his impressive resume. He’s the only player to have won three times on the PGA Tour this season and will look to become the 4th Spaniard to win at Augusta National.
There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. At Augusta National, he’s only finished inside the top 10 once. Xander Schauffele (World No. 7) and Will Zalatoris (World No. 8) both have several runner-up finishes in major championships but have failed to break through yet.
Lastly, the LIV Tour players have been allowed to play in this year’s event by the governing body, the Augusta National Golf Club membership. Since the PGA Tour does not officially run this event, they do not have jurisdiction over who and who cannot play in it. Headlining the list of eighteen players from the LIV Tour includes Cameron Smith, defending Open Championship winner, Dustin Johnson, 2020 Masters Champion, and Phil Mickelson, three-time Masters champion. The feud between the two tours has died down a bit but I can guarantee the last thing Jay Monahan wants to see is someone from a rival tour putting on that famous green jacket.
The Masters is truly one of the greatest sporting events to take place. The pristine conditions, the azaleas in full bloom, the artificial birds chirping. It’s something that most sports fans look forward to despite their interest level in golf. While it may not have the history of the Open Championship, there is truly no other tournament like The Masters.
Bobby Jones acquired the property in 1930 and co-designed Augusta National with course architect Alister MacKenzie. After two years, the course was finished and opened for play. In 1934, the first edition of the Masters took place won by Horton Smith. The only time the Masters hasn’t taken place since then was from 1943-1945 due to World War II. In 2020, the tournament was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the course was a former plant nursery, each hole on the golf course is named after a tree or shrub. Throughout the years, several holes have changed names.
The Master’s Tournament, also known as the Masters, is the first of four major championships in professional golf. Not only is it an official money event for the PGA Tour but, also for the DP World Tour (European Tour) and Japan Golf Tour.
Starting in 1949, the tradition of the green jacket was born. Along with the prize money and prestige, every champion becomes an honorary member of Augusta. The green jacket is only allowed to be removed from the Augusta National grounds by the reigning champion.
In addition to the green jacket, there are several awards presented to players who perform exceptional feats during the tournament. The player who has the daily lowest score receives a crystal vase, while players who score a hole-in-one or a double eagle win a large crystal bowl. For each eagle a player makes, they receive a pair of crystal goblets.
In 1952, the tournament began awarding the Silver Cup to the lowest-scoring amateur to make the cut. Some notable players who have won this award include, Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw, and Tiger Woods. More recently, Patrick Cantlay won it in 2012 with Viktor Hovland earning the honors in 2019.
All amateurs participating in the event are also welcome to stay in the “Crow’s Nest” which sits atop the Augusta National clubhouse during the tournament. It consists of one room with partitions to create four separate bedrooms. Several famous players to have stayed here include Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw, Tiger Woods, Tom Watson, and Phil Mickelson.
The Par 3 Tournament that takes place on Wednesday is also a highlight of the week that usually produces some great content. It first took place in 1960 when Sam Snead shot a 23 to win it. The course itself was designed by George Cobb and Clifford Roberts in 1958. It’s a par 27 nine-hole course measuring approximately 1,060 yards in length. However, winning this event has proven to be a curse as no winner of the Par 3 Tournament has won the Masters in the same year.
Most Tournament Wins:
6, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1975, 1986)
72-Hole Record:
268, Dustin Johnson (2020)
18-Hole Record:
63, Nick Price (Round 3, 1986), Greg Norman (Round 1, 1996)
Largest Margin of Victory:
12 Strokes, Tiger Woods (1997)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Augusta National is one of the most consistent courses on the PGA Tour but, there have been some recent renovations lately. Last year, holes No. 11 ‘White Dogwood’ and No. 15 ‘Firethorn’ were slightly modified adding some additional difficulty. Both tee boxes were pushed back along with the recontouring of the fairways on those holes. This year, the tee box on No. 13 ‘Azalea’ was moved back approximately 35 yards. Given the most recent change, the course yardage has increased from 7,510 yards to 7,545 yards.
Augusta National is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking third of the fifty courses players faced last season. Over the past two editions, the scoring average has been above par both times. In 2021, only four holes played under par which were the four par 5’s No. 2, No. 8, No. 13, & No. 15.
In terms of length, Augusta National is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,545 yards. It ranks 8th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 2nd of 54, with the average fairway width being 50.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,486 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers really aren’t a factor here as there are only 44 which ranks as the 4th fewest of 54 courses.
Originally, the green complexes consisted of Bermuda grass. Throughout the 1970s, the greens became slower and they switched to a different strain of Bermuda. In 1978, Augusta National switched their par 3 course to bentgrass. Given the success of that trial run, they decided to change the main course to bentgrass as well before the 1981 Masters. If you’re interested in learning more about the greens of Augusta National, I highly recommend checking this article.
The four Par 3’s range between 155 yards and 240 yards. No. 4, No. 6, and No. 12 are three of the more challenging par 3’s as they all had more bogeys than birdies recorded on them in the 2021 tournament.
No. 12 ‘Golden Bell’ is one of the most famous holes in golf. While it is the shortest Par 3 players will face, it can be argued that it’s also the most difficult. Club selection is crucial here given the varying winds. Rae’s Creek run’s along the front of the green while three bunkers are positioned off the back. Following their tee shot, players will then walk across the Ben Hogan Bridge to reach the green.
Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 3 ‘Flowering Peach’ is the shortest listed at 350 yards with the longest being No. 11 ‘White Dogwood’, playing 520 yards.
No. 5 ‘Magnolia’ is a slight dogleg Par 4 listed 495 yards. Off the tee, the landing area is fairly large but a wayward tee shot can be blocked out by the trees running on both sides of the fairway. A good approach shot is crucial here as the green is hard to hold with the false front.
No. 10 ‘Camellia’ has historically been the hardest hole throughout Masters history. Up until 1935, this was the first hole at Augusta. It’s a long downhill Par 4 listed at 495 yards. Players will try to aim towards the left center of the green for a better approach angle into the green that slopes right to left.
The four Par 5’s are No. 2 ‘Pink Dogwood’, No. 8 ‘Yellow Jasmine’, No. 13 ‘Azalea’, & No. 15 ‘Firethorn’. They all played under par last season, as they are some of the shorter par 5’s on Tour given their distance. All of these par 5’s are under 575 yards.
No. 13 ‘Azalea’ is a short Par 5 that allows players to go for the green in two barring an accurate tee shot. However, players will have to weigh the risk-vs-reward as a tributary of Rae’s Creek runs in front of the green while four bunkers lie just off the back.
No. 15 ‘Firethorn’ is the final Par 5 that players will face on the course listed at 550 yards. Players can reach this green in two but again, must be wary of the water and bunkers surrounding the putting surface.
Hole
Name
Yards
Par
Hole
Name
Yards
Par
1
Tea Olive
445
4
10
Camellia
495
4
2
Pink Dogwood
575
5
11
White Dogwood
520
4
3
Flowering Peach
350
4
12
Golden Bell
155
3
4
Flowering Crab Apple
240
3
13
Azalea
545
5
5
Magnolia
495
4
14
Chinese Fir
440
4
6
Juniper
180
3
15
Firethorn
550
5
7
Pampas
450
4
16
Redbud
170
3
8
Yellow Jasmine
570
5
17
Nandina
440
4
9
Carolina Cherry
460
4
18
Holly
465
4
Out
3,765
36
In
3,780
36
Total
7,545
72
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 12, 13
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Driving Distance
Par 4: Birdie or Better
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Proximity: 225 – 250 Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Comparable Courses and Event History
Trends for Past Winners:
43 of the last 43 winners had played in at least 1 previous Masters Tournament
24 of the last 25 winners made the cut at the Masters the year before they won
21 of the last 23 winners were ranked in the top 30 in the OWGR
13 of the last 15 winners had finished 22nd or higher in a previous Masters Tournament
12 of the last 14 winners had at least 4 previous career wins
Credit: @PGASplits101
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 88 players in the field at this year’s Masters Tournament. All of the world’s top thirty players will be in the field. This is also the first event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+700) is the defending champion of the Masters, winning his first major here last year. In his three appearances at Augusta National, he has yet to finish worse than T19. Scheffler had a tough start to the season finishing T45 at the CJ Cup but has been fantastic since then. Following Congaree, he’s yet to finish outside the top-15 in his ten most recent starts. During that span he’s also won twice, defending his title at the WM Phoenix Open and dominating THE PLAYERS Championship. Two weeks ago Scheffler had hoped to win the WGC-Dell Technology Match Play Event again but was bested by Sam Burns in the Semi-Finals and would then go on to lose to Rory McIlroy in the consolation match.
Jon Rahm (+700) had a disappointing finish at the WGC-Dell Technology Match Play Event failing to make it out of the group stage. Despite that, he is still the only player to have won three times on Tour this season. He first won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and followed that up with a win at The American Express. Following that event, he posted two top-10 finishes and would then go on to win The Genesis Invitational. Rahm will be making his seventh appearance at Augusta National this week. He’s played well here in the past posting four top-10 finishes but has never put on the green jacket. His only major championship victory was the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.
Rory McIlroy (+700) had a fantastic start to the season winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina. He followed that victory up with a win at Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. After that, he returned to the PGA Tour but has not won since. However, he did finish T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the WGC-Dell Technology Match Play Event in his last start. Rory has never won the Masters but was runner-up last year posting a 64 on Sunday almost tieing the 18-hole record of 63. Since 2014, he has only finished outside the top 10 twice in his nine appearances at Augusta National. If Rory is finally able to win here he will become only the sixth man to complete the career Grand Slam. Rory’s last major victory was back at the PGA Championship in 2014.
Jordan Spieth (+1800) captured his first major win at Augusta National back in 2015. He has a great track record at this event with five top-3 finishes in his nine appearances here. Last year, he missed the cut for the first time at Augusta struggling with his iron play. Since his victory at the 2022 RBC Heritage, Spieth has not won an event on Tour. However, he has been in better form as of late finishing inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts.
Cameron Smith (+2000) defected to the LIV Tour following the Tour Championship last year. He had an incredible season in 2022 on the PGA Tour, winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions, THE PLAYERS Championship, and The Open Championship. This year, he had a strong start winning the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship on the DP World Tour. Following that he missed the cut twice once on the DP World Tour and once on the Asian Tour. Since then, he finished 6th at LIV Mayakoba and 26th at LIV Tucson. Regardless, Smith’s been fantastic at Augusta National with four top-10 finishes in his six appearances.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Scottie Scheffler (’22), Hideki Matsuyama (’21), Dustin Johnson (’20), Tiger Woods (’19, ’05, ’02, ’01, ’97), Patrick Reed (’18), Sergio García (’17), Danny Willett (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Bubba Watson (’14, ’12), Adam Scott (’13), Charl Schwartzel (’11), Phil Mickelson (’10, ’06, ’04), Zach Johnson (’07), Mike Weir (’03), Vijay Singh (’00), José María Olazábal (’99, ’94), Bernhard Langer (’85, ’93), Sandy Lyle (’88), Larry Mize (’87)
Debutants in the field (excluding amateurs):
Ryan Fox, Kazuki Higa, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Adrian Meronk, Taylor Moore, Mito Pereira, Adam Svensson, Sahith Theegala
LIV Players in the field:
Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson, Mito Peirera, Charl Schwartzel, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer, Thomas Pieters, Harold Varner III, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Talor Gooch
Notable Withdraws:
Aaron Wise (Mental Health)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Will Zalatoris: 2/ T6
Scottie Scheffler: T19/ T18/ 1
Jordan Spieth: T2/ 1/ T2/ T11/ 3/ T21/ T46/ T3/ MC
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Alexander Noren: MC/ MC/ T62
Max Homa: MC/ MC/ T48
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
Price: 16-1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
Price: 45-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
Price: 9-1
2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
Price: 16-1
2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
Price: 55-1
Picks (Outrights):
Patrick Cantlay (+2200) – DraftKings
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Xander Schauffele (+2400) – FanDuel
Risk 0.34 to win 8.16 Units
Tony Finau (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Max Homa (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.25 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Young (+115) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Min Woo Lee (+200) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Joaquin Niemann (+105) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Si Woo Kim (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Total Risk on Top 30s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Masters: 5.25 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
It’s Florida Derby Day, what horse racing fans don’t love today! Maybe I’m biased as I live in Florida, but it is most definitely one of my favorite days of the year. My article today will provide all of my top plays for each race I’m playing, roughly how much I’m betting on each play and a few multi race bets. I will even throw in a few exotics!
Yes, Forte is the biggest topic of discussions throughout the racing world, hopefully I uncovered a few ways to make some money with him. For anyone not in the MAGE camp, maybe you should join me. More on the FL derby later in the article!
14 races on tap today, the 1st two are wide open Maidens, MSW and MOC. I will be passing on these, and focusing on the remaining 12! There is an early and late Pick 5, an early, middle and late Pick 4 and the 20c Pick 6 on the last 6 races. I will skip all the early ones, have a small play for the middle Pick 4 and then zero in on all the late ones. Let’s dive right in!
Race 3: Cutler Bay Stakes, for 3yo’s, going 7 ½ on the GRASS
Top Play: #8 KINGS FORTUNE, Irad-Pletcher, ML 4-1
He won debut on the poly, scratched off the turf. Irad had a strangle hold most of the race and he exploded in the stretch. Dam was a stake winner, combined with out of Bolt d’oro he should have no problem running on the grass. The way he exploded, will fit perfectly for a big grass run. There is a lot of early lick in this race, so the pace should be honest.
Play: Strong WIN bet here!
Singling the 8 in all multi’s.
Race 4: AOC n1x, 4yo’s and up, going a 1 turn Mile on the Dirt
Top Play: #9 BRIGHT FUTURE, Irad-Pletcher, ML 2-1
Yes we are going with Irad and TP again, he was a debut winner at GP last winter meet, then ran 3rd as a beaten favorite at Belmont in June and Todd gave him the rest of the year off. This is most likely an easy spot for him here, he will be odds on, don’t be surprised if goes off at 3-5. I will also be using the 1 GIANT GAME, Edgar Perez-Romans, ML 9-2. He recovered after an awkward start last out, the stretch to 1 mile helped this horse tremendously. Today is 3rd off the layoff, another improvement puts him right near the winners circle, if not in it.
PLAY: Ex 9-1 x3, 1-9 x1, and a small win bet on the #1.
Using the 1 and 9 in all multi’s, make sure you double or triple up on the 9 in smaller tickets, due to lack of price.
Race 5: Pan American, for older horses, going 1 ½ on the GRASS
Top Play: #7 ABAAN, Rosario-Pletcher, ML 5-1
I’m sure many landed on this horse due to his success at GP. If he can get back to old form and get loose on the lead, watch out. Whether that happens is another story. The jockey’s change from Saez to Rosario will for sure be an interesting dynamic, Saez has always sent this horse, and we all know Joel’s style of riding. I’ll be playing this race very carefully, and probably small wagers. The #3, MASTER PIECE looks tough and adds blinkers, but will be odds on. I’m not a big fan when Saffie adds blinkers, so we will see.
Play: Small win bet on #7, and an exacta box 3,7 x2 and 2,7 once.
Using the 3 and 7 in multi’s and maybe a few savers with the 2.
Race 6: MSW, for 3yo fillies, going 1 Mile on the TURF
Top Play(s): #3 GOOD VALUE, Perez-De La Cerda ML 6-1 AND #11 EVERY TIME J. Ortiz-Mott, ML 8-1
I’m split on this race, both will offer a good price, so let’s play both horses here. Very tough MSW, there are a ton of ways to go.
The #3 drew the outside post debut, was wide in the turn, then got slammed into turning home and still ran on well. The horses that out finished her got away 1-2 and finished 1-2. Claiming off of Chad Brown I usually wouldn’t recommend, but he claimed her off debut, so I would assume he had some good information. Hope for improvement. Now the #11 was in the K. Brion barn, and ran great as a 2 year old on the grass. Now at Bill Mott’s barn, they gave her a freshener off of the layoff going 6F on the dirt, drew the 1 hole, missed the break and got shuffled. She has been sprinting so she could be the controlling speed, with Jose being super aggressive out of the gate, possible wire to wire winner here.
Play: Average bet, Win and Place on the #3, as well as a win bet on the #11.
Using the 3 and 11 in multi’s.
Race 7: Ghostzapper, for older horses, going 1 1/16 on the dirt
Top Play: #4 O’CONNOR, Irad-Saffie, ML 3-1
The Chilean bred absolutely galloped in his U.S. debut, came back in the Harlan’s Holiday and ran a well beaten 4th. Toss out the Pegasus. I believe he sits a perfect trip off of his brother on the #1. Break, rush a little and sit the garden trip, imagine the Preakness all over again just switch brothers. Make his electric middle move and draw off. Well that’s all in theory. This is by far a tough race, but I think he gets first move on the ‘better’ horses here.
Play: Good size win bet on the #4, I’m strong in this race!
Singling the 4 in all multi’s.
Race 8: Orchid, older F+M’s, going 1 ½ on the TURF
Top Play: #2 MISS YEARWOOD, Landeros-Wilkes, ML 10-1
This filly can run for days, based on her breeding 11 furlongs will be right up her alley. She will need to improve from her 3yo to 4yo campaign, but Landeros has shipped in just to ride her it looks like, so let’s put our trust in Chris here. If we can get some early pace, she will be rolling late. Based on her recent bullet drill at Palm Meadows, she is tight and ready to run. She got a race in her last month off the layoff, which I believe puts her on a monster run today!
Play: Win and Place #2, don’t be shy with this bet. Could get a monster payoff.
For multi’s, I would spread here, could be a price if it’s not her.
Race 9: Sir Shackelton, older horses, going 7 furlongs on the dirt
Top Play: #4 Weyburn, J. Ortiz-Jerkens, ML 7-2
I’m all over Weyburn here, this horse loves GP and loves 7F(4 starts, 2 wins, 2 places, lifetime best #). This horse is very tactical, can run off the pace, or near the lead. It will be up to Jose where he wants to put him. He completely missed the break first off the layoff since August, and still ran on for a strong 2nd to fan favorite, White Abarrio. He won this race last year off of the pace, and with all the early lick signed on here, I’ll be expecting a similar performance to last year’s victory.
Play: LOVE, Strong WIN bet, #4!
Single in all multi’s.
Race 10: Sand Springs, older F+M’s, going 1 1/16 on the TURF
Top Play: #9 Preservancia, Leparoux-Devaux, ML 5-1
One of the tougher, more interesting races on this card. If you know Julien you know exactly how this race will play out. Break slow, rangle to the back and make one big move late. Fortunately for us, I believe that’s what it will take to win here. A ton of early speed in this race and middle movers. I see a horse coming over the top and winning in the stretch run. The only knack is 1 1/16 to short for her? Her better races have come at 11 furlongs, but she has won going 1 1/16 as well. If the pace is honest, she will get her shot to go by late. C’mon Julien!
Play: Average bet, Win and Place #9, exacta box 6,9.
I’ll be using the 6 and 9 in multi’s.
Race 11: Sanibel Island, 3yo fillies, going 7 ½ on the TURF
*****Top Play: #9 AUNT SHIRLEY, Irad-Pletcher, ML 6-1
This is my best bet of the entire card! WinStar has a monster and she has her coming out party today! Moving from Brisset to TP’s barn is already an improvement. She won debut, running down stakes winner Twice As Sweet, then bounced in the Spinaway at the Spa getting a wide trip. 2 turns on the Turf is just what the doctor ordered. Her pedigree screams LONG and grass. She’s out of Justify, by a dam called Ambroisa. Tons of turn in her bloodlines. Can we get anywhere near 6-1, doubtful. I will be unloading her here though!
Play: WIN bet, #9.
Singled in everything!
Race 12: GP Oaks, 3yo fillies, going 1 1/16 on the dirt
Top Play: #4 AFFIRMATIVE LADY, Saez-Motion, ML 10-1
This 400k OBS purchase out of Arrogate, has relished going 2 turns. She ran 2nd in the Demoisel at Aqueduct in January, beaten a neck going 1 ⅛. They cut her back to 1 1/16 two turns at GP 4 weeks ago in a MSW, and added blinkers. Alvarado got her locked in, she then exploded late! The number came back slightly low, but not to worry. Amo racing Usa, has nothing but runners in their barn. She’s out of a dam called Stiffed, who ran very well going long on the dirt. I expect a nice pace set up today, they could be rolling up front early!
Play: I’m very strong here, a nice size win and place on #4!
In the multi’s I’ll be using 4,6,7.
Race 13: Appleton, older horses, going 1 Mile on the TURF
Top Play: #3 GRAYS FABLE, Rosario-Lynch, ML 10-1
I landed on the classy 8yo gelding here. He cherishes running 1 Mile, with a record of 5 wins, 2 places and 2 shows, in just 13 races. Winner of this race 2 years ago, this horse made a complete 180 this past summer in running styles. Mostly an on/near the lead type of horse, has been coming from way back to end his 7yo campaign. Not common for older horses. Rosario got on last month at GP, and kind of got stuck on the rail to run on for 2nd. Loving the inside draw today with all the early speed in this race, Joel will be able to save ground then pave his way through at some point. This horse is so tactical, who even knows where he gets away. Can we get anywhere near 10-1, you never know, but regardless will be a juicy price!
Play: Strong Win and Place on the #3, and an exacta box 3-6.
In the multi’s i’ll be using 3 and 6.
Race 14: FLORIDA DERBY, 3yo’s, going 1 ⅛ on the dirt
Top Play: #4 Mage, Saez-G. Delgado, 10-1
Are they beating Forte here, most likely not, but I believe Mage can give him a run for his money! This 3 yo out of Good Magic completely missed the break in the FOY, now Castellano is off and the dangerous Saez signs on.
Play: #4 Win and place, exacta 11-4 x5, 4-11 once.
In the multi’s i’ll be using the 4 and 11, but make sure you multiple tix on the 11!
It’s not too often where you will see this matchup in basketball, football or in any college sport! So the whole story this week was the inconsistent foul call at the end of the game to give San Diego State the win vs Creighton. Should we be punishing the Aztecs for that call? Absolutely not. We also do not know if they would have won anyways in overtime. What we do know is that they have an elite defense and get to play a team in FAU that doesn’t have much for NBA talent. In saying that, I do not think that the Aztecs have a lot of NBA talent themselves. San Diego State can play defense, but if this game has some tight calls involved, FAU will be getting to the free throw line. When it comes to effective FG%, the Owls rank 25th in the nation at 54.3% while the Aztecs are only 223rd in the nation at 49.6%. I would like to say that they play in a harder conference, but I am not so sure that conference USA is inferior to the Mountain west this year. From a defensive perspective, the Aztecs rank 4th in efficiency while the Owls rank 30th. One would figure that San Diego State will have a huge matchup advantage inside, but guys like Vladislav Goldin at 7’1 tall has seemed to stop taller teams like Tennessee and Memphis from gaining much momentum in second chance points. Looking at the metrics from Haslametrics here, FAU actually has an advantage over San Diego State in second change points as well as fast break points. I also notice that San Diego State really has no advantage over FAU in most major categories in this matchup. I think that this is a close game and the Owls may be flying to the finals after this one.
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Looking at the metrics from Haslametrics here, FAU actually has an advantage over San Diego State in second change points as well as fast break points. I also notice that San Diego State really has no advantage over FAU in most major categories in this matchup. I think that this is a close game and the Owls may be flying to the finals after this one.
