We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Pick(s):
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Buffalo Sabres/ Dallas Stars over 6.5 (-104) – Barstool
The Stars have been on a roll offensively scoring at least four goals per game in each of their last five games. They’ve also been sub-par defensively in their last ten games allowing an average of 3.10 goals against. Buffalo has been better offensively at home this year averaging 3.69 GF/G but worse defensively allowing 3.81 GA/G. Jake Oettinger who is confirmed for Dallas tonight hasn’t been in great form allowing three or more goals in three of his last five games. Eric Comrie, who’s opposite of him tonight has allowed at least three goals against in each of his past three starts. This game feels like a track meet especially with Buffalo trying to make a playoff push. The only way they’ve been able to win games this season is by scoring at least three or four which is what I’m expecting tonight. Dallas’ talented offensive core should also be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s weak defensive unit so I see this game going over the total tonight.
Boston Bruins in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
There’s not much debate about who’s the best team in the NHL currently. The Bruins have been on a record-setting pace this season and only improved at the trade deadline with some new acquisitions. They’ve won each of their last ten games and are one of the few teams that can match the Oilers’ offensive production. They’re also one of the teams that can shut down the Oilers as we’ve seen in their previous matchup this year. While the Oilers have been better as of late, I think Boston stays hot at home this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-139) – Barstool
The Penguins have struggled against the Islanders this season losing each of their three previous matchups. Both of these teams are in a wild card battle in the Eastern Conference with only one point separating them. New York’s won both of their last two games against inferior opponents outscoring them 7-3. Pittsburgh’s been on a hot streak of their own winning five of their last six. They’re also coming off a comeback win against the Blue Jackets where they were down 4-0 at one point. The Penguins have been great on home ice this season with a 17-9-4 record while New York’s been sub-par on the road with a 13-14-5 record. Based on the recent play of each side I think Pittsburgh avoids the season sweep and moves ahead of New York in the playoff standings with a win tonight.
New Jersey Devils (-140) – Caesars
We have a tale of two stories tonight between New Jersey and Washington. The Devils have won seven of their past eleven games while the Capitals have lost eight of their last eleven. New Jersey’s in great form right now offensively scoring over three goals in each of their last six games. While they haven’t been as great defensively they’ve been able to rely on their offensive production to propel them to wins. Washington’s issues have also stemmed from their defensive play is an issue tonight. I expect New Jersey to stay hot and use their fast pace of play to defeat Washington tonight.
Player Props to Target:
Vince Dunn over 0.5 Points (-122) – FanDuel
Vince Dunn has gone over this number in each of his last seven games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last three games. He’s also on the Kraken’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Ottawa has taken multiple penalties in each of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Senators, Dunn recorded over 0.5 points each time.
Vladimir Tarasenko over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
Vladimir Tarasenko has gone over this number in three of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last two games. He’s also on the Ranger’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight. In his three previous matchups against the Canadiens, Tarasenko recorded over 0.5 points each time.
Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 Points (-132) – FanDuel
Patrice Bergeron has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his previous four games. He’s also on the Bruins’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Edmonton has taken multiple penalties in each of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Oilers, Bergeron recorded over 0.5 points twice.
Jeff Skinner over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five games. He’s also on the Sabres’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Dallas has taken multiple penalties in each of their last five games.
Brent Burns over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
Brent Burns has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five games. He’s also on the Hurricanes’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight. In his four previous matchups against the Flyers, Burns recorded over 0.5 points three times.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
This is a very even matchup in a lot of respects; these are two very disruptive defensives that thrive on the ball, and each team struggles greatly to make outside shots. I’ll also concede that Arkansas does a better job of playing to their strengths offensively and avoiding bad shot selection. However, the intangible aspects of this matchup were enough to get me on the Tigers at this number.
Auburn is one of the most experienced teams in CBB, while Arkansas is one of the youngest. Arkansas will put a lot of the load on freshman guard Nick Smith Jr down the stretch of the game, while Auburn features an array of chiseled veterans. You can say this doesn’t matter, but I would vehemently disagree.
These are also two very foul-happy defenses, so I think FT shooting will matter as much in this matchup as perhaps any I’ve bet this season. Auburn holds a near 1.5% edge in this department, and I think the experience factor plays to our favor here as well.
We saw the Tigers win comfortably vs Arkansas earlier in the season, and I saw some “buy signs” in Saturday’s win over Tennessee. We can run through all the numbers(most of which will be even), but this handicap is as simple as you can’t give Auburn 3 points here considering the intangibles of this matchup.
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Ole Miss vs Tennessee -11.5 O/U 127.5
Tennessee won the SEC tournament in 2022. Is that sustainable? I am not sure, but what I do know is that Tennessee hasn’t exactly been goon away from home. The Vols rank 359th in their away from home metric compared to 70th for Ole Miss. Both teams are quite defensively oriented hence the big move to the under from 130 to 127.5. A few things that I do like about Ole miss is their block % is decent at 51%. The Vols are good at rebounding the ball ranking 14th in the nation, and all but Ole Miss is half way decent ranking 129th in the nation as well. The Vols average 71.9 points per game to Ole Miss at 67.9, but when Tennessee is away from home, they only shoot 46.6%. The Rebels are pretty close at 46.3%. We cannot forget the X factor here that Tennessee has lost their point guard and second leading scorer in Zakai Ziegler to injury and will struggle with turnovers as well as running their offense. Who would you rather back? A dog trying to improve his meal, or a dog fighting for his life? Take Ole Miss plus the points.
We have an great show for you today! Eric Haslam from Haslametrics comes on to break down some MARCH MADNESS! First, Kiev talks about some promotions and our NCAA tournament challenge coming up next month! Next, Eric comes on and the guys get right into Haslametrics and how it is different from other NCAAB efficiency sites. Then, Eric and Kiev get into some bracketology with his 1s and 2 seeds as well as some bubble teams. After that, the guys talk about some of the big tournaments going on and who they each think could win. Finally, Kiev talks some NCAA basketball games for Thursday! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Colorado vs Washington +3.5 O/U 138.5
Gotta love March Madness, but one thing that definitely seems like Madness is having Colorado favored over Washington. Now the Huskies, aren’t exactly the best shooting team ranking 265th in offensive efficiency, but they do play some defense ranking 34th in opponent effective FG%, and 65th in overall efficiency. Colorado on the other hand also plays good defense ranking 52nd in opponent effective FG% and 17th in defensive efficiency, but they also can’t shoot well ranking 277th in effective FG% and 140th in overall efficiency due to decent rebounding. Their are two big problems that I have with Colorado as a favorite here. One, they are terrible from the charity stripe ranking 280th in FT%, and two, they rank 329th in their away from home metric. Washington at least ranks 70th in free throws and 39th away from home. These two teams played once during the regular season in Colorado with the Huskies getting a 75-72 victory over the Buffaloes. I expect a close game and a cover from Washington today.
What an exciting finish at Bay Hill as Kurt Kitayama wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational to capture his first PGA Tour victory. With that victory, he is now exempt into all of the 2023 majors along with the remaining PGA Tour schedule.
The “fifth major” takes place this week as we head to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship. No play has ever won this event in back-to-back years which is a trend that will continue this season as defending champion Cam Smith is no longer on the PGA Tour. It should be a great week as this course will certainly challenge some of the world’s best.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 9 mp/h N, 60% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
THE PLAYERS Championship was first held in 1974 and was conceived by then PGA Tour commissioner, Deane Beman. It was held at Atlanta Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia, and took place in early September. Over the next two years, it was held at different locations including the Colonial Country Club in 1975 and at the Inverrary Country Club in 1976. From 1977 to 1982 the event was held at Sawgrass Country Club which is very close to its current location, TPC Sawgrass. Since 1982, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event.
From 2007-2017 THE PLAYERS Championship took place in May. However, in 2018, the event returned to March where it has been held since.
Given its newly elevated status on the PGA Tour, the purse was increased to 25 million dollars this year, which is $5 million more than was offered in 2022. With the additional purse money, the winner’s share is also increased to $4,500,000 from last year’s $3,600,000.
Unlike other tournaments that feature a sudden-death playoff format, THE PLAYERS has a three-hole aggregate format that started in 2014. This tournament has only gone to a playoff once since this format change and that was back in 2015 when Rickie Fowler won.
Most Tournament Wins:
3, Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978)
72-Hole Record:
264, Greg Norman (1994)
18-Hole Record:
63, Fred Couples (Round 3, 1992), Greg Norman (Round 1, 1994), Roberto Castro (Round 1, 2013), Martin Kaymer (Round 1, 2014); Jason Day (Round 1, 2016); Colt Knost (Round 2, 2016); Webb Simpson (Round 2, 2018); Brooks Koepka (Round 4, 2018); Dustin Johnson (Round 4, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Sawgrass is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. In both of the past two editions of the PLAYERS, the scoring average has been over par. In 2022, only two holes (No. 6 & No. 12) were played under par outside of the four par 5’s.
In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,275 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 28.0 yards. This ranks as the 8th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. The average green size is roughly 5,500 square feet which is on the smaller side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.
The course’s main defense is predominately the water hazards that come into play on nearly every hole (17/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.
No. 17, is the signature hole on the Stadium course and what TPC Sawgrass is known for. This is the shortest Par 3 players will face this week but the most difficult by far playing 0.267 strokes over par last year. Players will tee off over a lake onto an ‘island’ green that’s protected by one small bunker on the right side. The prevailing winds coming off the body of water can create chaos leading to an exciting finish.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x6)
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 75 – 100 Yards
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s PLAYERS Championship. Forty-nine of the world’s top fifty players will be in the field with the lone exclusion being last year’s champion, Cameron Smith. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:
Jon Rahm (+900), has won three tournaments this season which is the most of any player. He’s coming off his worst finish of the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T39. Rahm lost 1.39 strokes off the tee which is the most in that category since 2019 when he lost 2.08 strokes at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his five appearances at TPC Sawgrass, Rahm has only finished inside the top 10 once.
Rory McIlroy (+900), is coming off a T2 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained strokes in every major category. In the only other PGA Tour event he gained strokes on the green this season, he won (CJ Cup). McIlroy has competed in every PLAYERS Championship since 2009. He won the 2019 edition and has three other top-20 finishes during that span.
Scottie Scheffler (+1100), has only finished outside the top-12 once in his nine starts this season. Last week, he finished T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational losing strokes on the green. Scheffler doesn’t have great course history at TPC Sawgrass as he missed the cut in his debut (2021) and finished T55 last year.
Patrick Cantlay (+1600), has finished 3rd and T4 in his last two starts on Tour. His best finish of the year was back in October at the Shriners Children’s Open when he finished T2. In his last three appearances at TPC Sawgrass, Cantlay has missed the cut.
Justin Thomas (+1800), won the PLAYERS Championship back in 2021 and finished T33 last year. In his seven starts on Tour this season, he has finished inside the top-25 six times. His best finish of the season was last month at the WM Phoenix Open (4th).
Max Homa (+2000), has won two events this season, the Farmers Insurance Open and Fortinet Championship. In each of his nine starts on Tour, Homa has never finished outside the top 40. He missed the cut in his debut at TPC Sawgrass (2021) and finished T13 last year.
Previous Winners in the field:
Justin Thomas (’21), Rory McIlroy (’19), Webb Simpson (’18), Si Woo Kim (’17), Jason Day (’16), Rickie Fowler (’15), Matt Kuchar (’12), Adam Scott (’04)
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Justin Thomas: T24/ T3/ T75/ T11/ T35/ 1/ T33
Corey Conners: T41/ 7/ T26
Doug Ghim: T29/ T6
Will Zalatoris: 21/ T26
Tommy Fleetwood: T41/ T7/ T5/ MC/ T22
Seamus Power: T35/ T33
Tom Hoge: T72/ T30/ T22/ T33
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Harris English: T64/ T33/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Robert Streb: T30/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ MC/ T77/ T65/ MC
Beau Hossler: T46/ MC/ MC/ MC
Danny Willett: MC/ MC/ WD/ MC/ MC
Andrew Putnam: MC/ MC/ MC
Cameron Davis: MC/ MC
Wyndham Clark: MC/ MC
Matthew NeSmith: MC/ MC
Mark Hubbard: MC/ MC
Adam Schenk: MC/ MC
Trey Mullinax: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
Price: 33-1
2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
Price: 20-1
2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
Price: 14-1
2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
Price: 100-1
Picks (Outrights):
Patrick Cantlay (+1800) – BetMGM
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Justin Thomas (+2000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Jason Day (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tyrrell Hatton (+165) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Keegan Bradley (+210) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.10 Units
Keith Mitchell (+230) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
Total Risk on THE PLAYERS Championship: 4.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Only $150 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Georgia Tech vs Florida State +2 O/U 145.5
Let’s go a little ACC action here. Let the games begin! Georgia Tech and Florida State played way back in January with the Semi’s winning 75-64 which also started a 9 game losing streak for the Yellow Jackets. Since then, Georgia Tech has caught some fire winning six of their last 8 games including games against Syracuse and Virginia Tech. They do not shoot well ranking 286th in effective FG%, but they at least play some defense ranking 140th in defensive efficiency and 131st effective FG%. Georgia Tech doesn’t turn the ball over much ranking 43rd in turnovers. Florida State doesn’t really do anything all that well ranking 169th in effective FG% and 311th on defense. You would think that this team that has some height would be able to rebound the ball some, but Florida State ranks 341st in total rebounds to Georgia Tech who ranks 154th. This won’t bode well for a team that can’t score. I got the Yellow Jackets here by 4 points so I will take the short spread.
We have an great show for you today! March Madness is here, and the BIG conference tournaments are seeded! Kiev comes on solo to give out some of his future plays that he has made for this week’s college basketball tournament action as well as some leans! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Pick(s):
San Jose Sharks / Winnipeg Jets over 6.0 (-120) – PointsBet
San Jose has now dropped eight of their last ten games. They’re coming off a seven-game homestand where they only picked up three points. During that span, they were outscored by opponents 31-18. While the Sharks have struggled defensively, they’ve still been able to score a few each game. They’ve scored at least three goals in three of their last four games aiding the total. Kaapo Kahkonen has been confirmed as the starter tonight for San Jose. In his last start, he struggled allowing eight goals on thirty shots.
Winnipeg has been in a freefall themselves ending their five-game losing streak on Saturday against the Oilers. In their last three games, they’ve shown some signs of life offensively averaging 5.0 goals during that span. Defensively, they’ve been awful allowing at least four goals against in each of their last five games. David Rittich will get the start tonight who has a -0.7 GSAx on the season.
This game should have plenty of goals tonight for a variety of reasons. The first is the poor defensive play both teams have displayed in their recent games. The goaltender match is also to our advantage as both have been sub-par this season. Lastly, San Jose and Winnipeg have shown that they can at least put up 3 a piece which is all we need tonight as the total is listed at 6.
Los Angeles Kings in Regulation (-102) – FanDuel
Washington has been much better as of late winning three of their last four but before that, they had lost six straight. The Capitals are ending their three-game West Coast road trip tonight in Los Angeles. They’ve gone undefeated so far winning their last two games against Anaheim and San Jose. Darcy Kuemper has been confirmed as the starter for them tonight who’s allowed at least three goals in eight of his last ten starts.
Los Angeles has been on a tear lately winning seven of their last ten, including their last three. They’ve been dominant on home ice this season with a 19-9-2 record and have won their last five games at Crypto.com Arena. Newly acquired Joonas Korpisalo will get the start for the Kings tonight who was impressive in his debut stopping 24 of 26.
This spot favors the Kings who have been much more consistent as of late. Washington faced inferior opponents in their last two games which has inflated their offensive production. Los Angeles should be able to defeat the Caps tonight and win this in regulation.
Player Props to Target:
Gabriel Vilardi over 0.5 Points (+104) – FanDuel
Gabriel Vilardi has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five games.
Tyler Seguin over 0.5 Points (+106) – FanDuel
Tyler Seguin has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four games. In his eleven previous matchups against the Flames, Seguin has recorded over 0.5 points seven times.
Dylan Cozens over 0.5 Points (-118) – FanDuel
Dylan Cozens has gone over this number in five of his last ten games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last five. He’s on the Sabres top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Edmonton has taken three or more penalties in nine of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Oilers, Cozens recorded over 0.5 points twice.
Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Leon Draisaitl has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Sabres rank 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.13. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.23. Buffalo has also given up the 13th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last five games.
Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Oilers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.64. On the road, that number drops increases to 32.52. Edmonton has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last five games.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at Theoddsbreakers.com shortly.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL Central
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
St. Louis Cardinals -135/ 88.5
Milwaukee Brewers +170/ 85.5
Chicago Cubs +425/ 77.5
Pittsburgh Pirates +4500/ 68
Cincinnati Reds +4500/ 65.5
St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds are the favorite in the NL Central this year and rightfully so. Led by reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado the redbirds became more potent at and behind the dish with the addition of Willson Contreras through free agency. Tommy Edman is one of the best leadoff men in the league atop the lineup. They have plenty of depth all around the lineup and Jordan Walker waiting in the wings. The starting pitching staff isn’t elite and to put in kindly….it’s old. Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas are at the top of the rotation. Jordan Montgomery was a solid addition last year in a trade with the Yankees. If Jack Flaherty can return to his pre-injury form the Cards will find a few more wins. The bullpen has plenty of power arms with lots of whiff material. Ryan Helsey will close most nights with Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Hicks getting him the ball. Prediction 90-72
Milwaukee Brewers
I was very high on the Crew last year, but I didn’t take one thing into account. Their lack of depth. Once the injury bug started biting the team fell apart. The team didn’t do much to address internal depth in the off-season, but they did make upgrades at catcher by signing William Contreras. Willy Adams finally started living up to his pedigree in 2022 launching 31 Homers. Christian Yelich hasn’t played up to his MVP standard since he won it, but is still formidable. Rowdy Tellez is an underrated power bat in the heart of the lineup. The bottom half of the lineup and the bench is below average. The staff is the strength of the Crew led by 2021 Cy Young Corbin Burnes. Word on the street is he wants out of Milwaukee and that’s something to keep and eye on this year. Brandon Woodruff is solid as a #2 Arm. Freddy Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff on the planet and if he can find a way to stay healthy could increase their chances of bypassing the Cards in the division. Speaking of nasty stuff, closer Devin Williams’ change-up if one of the nastiest pitches you’ll find. The Rest of the bullpen will struggle to hold leads however. Prediction 84-78
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are still rebuilding I think… They let Willson Contreras walk to a division rival, but then spent a bunch of money to sign Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Tucker Barnhardt. All of whom are projected to start for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner has blossomed into a homegrown elite leadoff contact hitter with a great mix of speed and a little pop. The rotation isn’t strong with Marcus Stroman likely getting the ball on opening day. Justin Steele has some potential, but the rest of the group is underwhelming. The bullpen has breakout Brandon Hughes set to work in some high leverage capacity, and they signed Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer to add some depth. I think a lot of the signings are simply paying for decent trade pieces as we get to July this year. The Cubs are still a few years and a few arms away from competing again. Prediction 77-85
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates didn’t make as many free agent signings as the Cubs only bringing back Andrew McCutchen alongside Carlos Santana and Rich Hill, but I think they are actually on a faster trajectory towards being competitive. Bryan Reynolds likely wont be around to see the competitive team, but for now he’s the best in the lineup. O’Neill Cruz is something special. Watch the effortless power in his swing and you’ll be in awe. Rodolofo Castro has some interesting tools, and other top prospect Endy Rodriguez may be up at some point this year. The rotation isn’t great, but Roansy Contreras will be a #1 starter if not this year then in 2024. Mitch Keller was highly touted, but just hasn’t put things together. David Bednar has emerged as an elite closer who I think will get traded later in the season. The restof the bullpen is well below MLB average. I think the Bucs will win some games early before trading away pieces and fading in August and September. Prediction 70-92
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will look for some bounce back seasons for their young talent as they continue their rebuild. Where the Pirates have the batters with high potential I like the young Cincinnati arms coming up. The hitters needing to get on track are Jonathan India and Nick Senzel. They signed Wil Myers for some vetaran pop and they still have Joey Votto around, but he is now well past his prime. They have three really good homegrown arms in the rotation in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Both Greene and Lodolo could be future #1’s. Alexis Diaz will be the teams closer this year, but there are no other decent arms in the bullpen. Prediction 69-93
NL Central Free Plays
One item of note is that with the adjusted more balanced schedule the games played vs division opponents this year is 13. That means that each division is going to go 130-130 against itself instead of the 190-190 of previous years. What that means in this scenario is that the Cards and Brewers have less games to beat up on the Bucs, Cubs and Reds and more games against a much more balanced American League.
I like the Cards to win this division, but the price is set correctly. The Brewers at +170 is the only way to play this one, but again I think it takes a very healthy season for them to make it happen so I am passing on the division markets here.
