The season’s third Major is here, the U.S. Open. This will be the 123rd edition of this event and the first time that it’s been held at Los Angeles Country Club. The last time the U.S. Open was held in the Los Angeles area was in back 1948, 75 years ago. This is the 86th USGA Championship held in California, the second most of any state (Pennsylvania, 90). Out of those eighty-six events, fifteen were U.S. Opens. Before this year, the most recent first-time U.S. Open venue was Erin Hills in 2017 and Chambers Bay in 2015. Neither of those courses is on the list to host another U.S. Open but LA CC is slated to host again in 2039.
The last time a USGA championship was held at Los Angeles Country Club was the 2017 Walker Cup where the US defeated Great Britain & Ireland 19-7. For those unfamiliar with the Walker Cup, it’s a similar format to the Ryder Cup that pits the best amateurs from the USA and the United Kingdom against each other. Several notable names were on the United States team including Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Champ, Doug Ghim, and Doc Redman. Collin Morikawa was incredible as he was one of three Americans to win all four of his matches.
In addition to the 2017 Walker Cup, Los Angeles Country Club has also hosted the 1930 United States Women’s Amateur Golf Championship and the 1954 U.S. Junior Amateur Golf Championship.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The biggest story in golf history, the “merger” of the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour will be the main topic. I won’t say anything further on this topic but stay tuned for a podcast on Wednesday.
Matt Fitzpatrick will look to defend his U.S. Open title after winning last year at the Country Club. He became the 13th player to have won both the U.S. Amateur and U.S. Open. Following that victory, he has only won once since then which was at the RBC Heritage earlier this season when he defeated Jordan Spieth in a playoff. His play dipped a little this year as he was struggling with a neck injury but comes into this event with some hope after finishing tied for ninth at the Memorial Tournament.
Several players have California ties through their college careers which includes Patrick Cantlay (UCLA), Justin Suh (USC), Collin Morikawa (CAL), Max Homa (CAL), Xander Schauffele (SDSU), and Sahith Theegala (Pepperdine). Numerous players were also born in California including Bryson Dechambeau (Modesto, California), Rickie Fowler (Murrieta, California), Collin Morikawa (Los Angeles, California), Max Homa (Burbank, California), and Sahith Theegala (Orange, California).
Out of those groups, the two standouts with significant ties to California with a correlated record of success are Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco, California). Most recently he withdrew at the Memorial Tournament due to back spasms so it’ll be something to monitor this week. Homa has already won twice in the state of California this year and has ties to Los Angeles Country Club. Back in 2013, he won the Pac-12 Championship which was held at this course. In addition to that, Max Homa holds the competitive course record at LA CC as well.
Scottie Scheffler, six-time PGA tour winner, and current World No. 1 enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s already won twice on the Tour this year (WM Pheonix Open & THE PLAYERS). Last year he was able to win his first Major Championship at Augusta National. Since then, he has finished runner-up in two of the last five Majors including the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 PGA Championship.
World No. 2, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships including the 2021 U.S. Open which was held at Torrey Pines. Rahm has also had success in California this season winning The American Express and The Genesis Invitational. If he’s able to win this week, he’ll become the seventh player to have won the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year.
There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Viktor Hovland, current World No. 5, finished tied for second at the PGA Championship last month. He’s now finished inside the top 10 in each of his last three Major Championship appearances. Xander Schauffele, current World No. 6, has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Max Homa, current World No. 7, is also looking for his first Major Championship. Those four players have combined for 25 PGA TOUR titles and have all won at least twice since the start of the 2021-22 season.
Lastly, there are fourteen players from the LIV Tour competing in this year’s U.S. Open. Headlining the list of players include Brooks Koepka, the 2023 PGA Championship winner, and Cameron Smith, the defending Open Championship winner. Dustin Johnson is another player to mention as he won the 2016 U.S. Open. Phil Mickelson is also in the field this week and can complete the career Grand Slam if he’s able to win.
Also, before I break down this tournament I just wanted to wish all of the dads out there a Happy Father’s Day!
The United States Open Championship, also known as the US Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States. It’s the third of four major championships.
The first U.S. Open was played in 1895 on a nine-hole course at the Newport Country Club in Newport, RI. Back then it was a single-day 36-hole competition. The first American-born player to win the U.S. Open was John J. McDermott in 1911.
Until 2017, the U.S. Open retained a full 18-hole playoff on the following day. However, since 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff format. The format will switch to sudden death if the playoff is still tied after two holes.
Winners of the U.S. Open will not only take home the prize money but will also receive a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, are invited to play in the three other majors for the next five years, and are exempt from qualifying for the U.S. Open itself for 10 years.
In 1987, several residents of Los Angeles, led by Joseph Sartoni and Edwards Tufts organized an association to further the golf in the area. They leased a 16-acre lot at the corner of Pico and Alvarado streets for a nine-hole golf course called “The Windmill Links.” The name came from the makeshift clubhouse that was crafted from the bottom of an abandoned windmill. After the club had outgrown several locations, Los Angeles Country Club moved to its current location bordering Beverly Hills and opened on May 30, 1911. The original 18-hole golf course was designed by Sartoni, Tufts, Norman Macbeth, and Charles Orr.
In the 1920s, club member and famed gold architect George C. Thomas Jr. redesigned the North Course. The latest renovation was in 2010 and took nearly five years to complete led by Gil Hanse to restore Thomas’ 1928 layout.
In 2015, the historic 106-year-old clubhouse underwent a renovation to restore its original grandeur. The reopening in 2016 included the rededication of the Regan Terrance in honor of Ronald Regan, the 40th president of the United States and member of LA CC.
In that same year, Hanse renovated the club’s South Course which opened in July of 2016.
The first edition of the Los Angeles Open, now known as The Genesis Invitational, was held at LACC (North) in 1926, and the event has been held there a total of five times (1926, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940). The last major championship played in the Los Angeles area was the 1995 PGA Championship, held at The Riviera Country Club, the host venue of The Genesis Invitational
Most Tournament Wins (U.S. Open):
4 – Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980
72-Hole Record:
268 – Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)
18-Hole Record:
63 – Johnny Miller (4th round, 1973 at Oakmont), Tom Weiskopf (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Jack Nicklaus (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Vijay Singh (2nd round, 2003 at Olympia Fields), Justin Thomas (3rd round, 2017 at Erin Hills), Tommy Fleetwood (4th round, 2018 at Shinnecock Hills)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
In terms of length, Los Angeles Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,421 yards. It’s the fifth-longest course players will face this season.
The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 5th (widest) of 46, with the average fairway width being 43.0 yards. This is also the first U.S. Open with Bermuda grass rough since 2005 at Pinehurst No. 2.
The average green size is roughly 6,500 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. The greens are Bentgrass which is something we don’t traditionally see in California. Torrey Pines (North) in California is the only course on Tour that features Bentgrass greens.
There are 66 bunkers which is the 15th fewest out of 46 courses.
The five Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 7, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 124 yards and 290 yards. This is one of the more unique layouts we’ve seen on Tour and one of the only courses to have this many Par 3s.
No. 7, 284 yards, Par 3: This is a long, challenging par 3. However, players do not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can run the ball up along the left side of the fairway. Most players will likely take this approach as there is a large bunker that protects the green along the right side.
No. 9, 171 yards, Par 3: This is an elevated par 3 with the green playing approximately 15-20 feet above the tee box. The green itself is one of the narrowest on the course but is the deepest. Three bunkers surround the green on the left, right, and front so a precise iron is required. Players will likely try to aim for the back of the green and use the slope depending on the pin location.
No. 11, 290 yards, Par 3: This is the longest par 3 at Los Angeles Country Club and second longest Par 3 in U.S. Open history (No. 8 – Oakmont).
The majority of the ten Par 4’s are longer than 450 yards. Three of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 330 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 542 yards.
No. 5, 480 Yards, Par 4: A fairly open Par 4 off the tee but players will look to favor the left side of the fairway as the right side slopes toward the right rough. The green itself is the second largest on the property at 8,055 sq. ft and is protected by bunkers on the front and right side.
No. 6, 330 yards, Par 4: This is one of the more interesting holes on the course as this short Par 4 is driveable off the tee. However, it is a blind shot so players will have to factor that in. Most players will likely layup as the green is one of the smallest on the course and is protected by bunkers in the front and fescue in the back.
No. 13, 507 Yards, Par 4: Off the tee, players will need to aim towards the left side of the fairway to avoid the pronounced left-to-right slope that will likely feed the ball into the rough and will result in a blind second shot. The majority of the green is surrounded by closely mown turf that will allow players to play a variety of recovery shots should they miss the green.
🚨☠️ The right side of the fairway is dead at LACC’s par-4 13th… #USOpen2023
The three Par 5’s are No. 1, No. 8 & No. 14. This is the first time a Par 5 will be the opening hole in a U.S. Open since 2017 at Erin Hills. No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s listed at 623 yards. Given the difficulty of the course, players will need to take advantage of these holes.
No. 1, 578 yards, Par 5: This is one of the easier holes on the course. Off the tee, players will look to avoid two fairway bunkers on either side. If they’re able to do so, they should have a chance to reach the green in two shots. On their approach, they’ll only have to worry about a bunker short left of this elevated green. The green itself slopes off the back so if they do hit it long, it could create some issues.
No. 8, 547 yards, Par 5: This is another hole that provides a good chance at birdie as it’s the shortest Par 5 on the course. Off the tee, players will aim along the left side of the fairway as the drive zone pitches severely from left to right toward the barranca. From there, players will have a semi-blind approach shot into the green which is reachable for most players in two. Players will not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can land short and allow the ball to run up. Anything right or left of the green can mean trouble as it’s protected by sand on either side.
No. 14, 623 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course which can play longer depending on the breeze. Off the tee, players will try to avoid the fairway bunkers on the right side. Players will likely choose to layup as the hole narrows towards the extremely small green.
Hole
Yards
Par
Hole
Yards
Par
1
578
5
10
409
4
2
497
4
11
290
3
3
419
4
12
380
4
4
228
3
13
507
4
5
480
4
14
623
5
6
330
4
15
124
3
7
284
3
16
542
4
8
547
5
17
520
4
9
171
3
18
492
4
Out
3,534
35
In
3,887
35
Total
7,421
70
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 500+ Yards (x3)
Par 3 Scoring: 225 – 300 Yards (x3)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Major History
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s U.S. Open. All of the world’s top 10 ranked players are in the field this week. A few notable absences this week are Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, Talor Gooch, and Tiger Woods. This is also the third event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+700) enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s been terrific in the first two Major Championships of the year finishing T10 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA Championship. His last and only Major victory was last year at Augusta National. While his kryptonite has always been his play on the green, it’s been even worse as of late as he’s lost strokes putting in five of his last six starts.
Jon Rahm (+1000) has the most wins on the PGA Tour with four. One of those wins was at the first Major Championship of the year, the Masters. In the most recent Major, he struggled at Oak Hill finishing T50 at the PGA Championship. He’s already won the U.S. Open back in 2021 when it was at Torrey Pines. With a win this week, Rahm would become the first player to win five times in a season since Justin Thomas in 2016-17 and the first to win multiple majors in the same year since Jordan Spieth in 2015 (Masters,
U.S. Open).
Brooks Koepka (+1100) won the U.S. Open in back-to-back years from 2017 to 2018. Since then, he’s finished inside the top 5 in two of his last three appearances at this event. He’s been terrific in Major Championships this year winning the PGA Championship and finishing T2 at the Masters. In his last start on the LIV Tour, he finished 14th at LIV DC.
Rory McIlroy (+1400) won the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional but has not won this event since then. However, he has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four appearances at the U.S. Open. He won the CJ Cup in South Carolina earlier this season and enters in good form. In his last three starts on the PGA Tour, he’s finished T7/ T7/ T9. McIlroy has won four majors (2011 U.S. Open, 2012 PGA Championship, 2014 Open Championship, 2014 PGA Championship) but none since the start of the 2014-15
season. He has 18 top-10s in majors since his most recent title, the most of any player in that span. McIlroy is making his 48th start in a major and 33rd since winning the 2014 PGA Championship.
Patrick Cantlay (+1400) has played in seven U.S. Opens but has never finished inside the top 10. In his last two appearances at this event, he’s finished T15 and T14. He’s still looking for his first Major Championship with his best finish coming at the 2019 PGA Championship (T3). Cantlay has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but does have ten top-20 finishes in fourteen starts.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Matt Fitzpatrick (’22), Jon Rahm (’21), Bryson DeChambeau (’20), Gary Woodland (’19), Brooks Koepka (’18, ’17), Dustin Johnson (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Martin Kaymer (’14), Justin Rose (’13), Webb Simpson (’12), Rory McIlroy (’11)
LIV Players in the field (14):
Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Carlos Ortiz, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Sebastian Munoz,
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Xander Schauffele
T14
T7
5
T3
T6
T5
Brooks Koepka
55
T4
2
1
1
T13
T18
T4
MC
Collin Morikawa
T5
T4
MC
T35
Scottie Scheffler
T2
T7
MC
T27
MC
Rory McIlroy
T5
T7
T8
T9
MC
MC
MC
T9
T23
T41
MC
1
Hideki Matsuyama
4
T26
T17
T21
T16
T2
MC
T18
T35
T10
Patrick Reed
T49
T19
T13
T32
4
T13
MC
T14
T35
Jon Rahm
T12
1
T23
T3
MC
MC
T23
Dustin Johnson
T24
T19
T6
T35
3
MC
1
T2
T4
55
MC
T23
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Luke List
MC
MC
MC
Corey Conners
MC
MC
MC
MC
Cameron Young
MC
MC
MC
Victor Perez
MC
MC
MC
Sahith Theegala
MC
MC
Kurt Kitayama
MC
MC
Justin Suh
MC
MC
Paul Barjon
MC
MC
Mito Pereira
MC
MC
Wyndham Clark
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6) – The Country Club (Composite)
Price: 30-1
2021: Jon Rahm (-6) – Torrey Pines (South)
Price: 10-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) – Winged Foot (West)
Price:25-1
2019: Gary Woodland (-13) – Pebble Beach
Price: 80-1
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1) – Shinnecock Hills
Price: 25-1
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Erin Hills
Price: 50-1
Picks (Outrights):
Jon Rahm (+1100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.73 to win 8.03 Units
Xander Schauffele (+2100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units
Jordan Spieth (+3200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.00 Units
Cameron Smith (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.63 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tyrrell Hatton (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
Rickie Fowler (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Corey Conners (+115) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Mito Pereira (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Total Risk on Top 30s: 3.00 Units
Matchups:
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-120) over Dustin Johnson – DraftKings
Cameron Smith (-110) over Max Homa – DraftKings
Total Risk on the U.S. Open: 5.63 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Please give me a follow on Twitter to access all of my content and picks @TrustRocco.
Nuggets -2 (Bet365 -115) risk 1.15u to win 1u
So, I debated on doing a free-play article tonight and said to myself, this is the last game of the NBA season (in my opinion) I absolutely have too considering the amazing season we have had. So, yes assuming we close out all our series bets tonight, I believe I have uncovered one last play to send our 2022-23 season into just a memory. If you have read all my articles this season, you know at this point it’s not going to be a basic side/total bet tonight as that wouldn’t be me since I like to think outside the box. What quarter is Miami best in? Obviously, the 4th. Now their first halves have been hit or missed. Are they are going to leave it all on the court tonight? I think that goes without saying. I also think when it gets to halftime their gas tank is going to be EMPTY. This is also the same point of the game when Denver kicks it into high gear and gives the knockout punch to their opponents and is exactly what’s going to happen tonight! Like I have said in multiple of my podcasts, fatigue is going to kick in the Miami players at some point, specifically on the road in the high altitude of Denver. You could even say it started to show in the second half of game 4. So, Denver wins the NBA Finals tonight and delivers the knockout blow in quarter number 3, to hit our solo bet tonight, as well as our series bets! I hope everyone enjoyed the NBA season and my articles. This has been Eric Rocco, out.
The AFC North was one of the better divisions in football. I honestly believe that it might be the best division in football for the 2023/2024 season. Last year, this division once again was able to get two teams into the playoffs and one with one heck of a run to the AFC Championship game only to get reffed out of their chances of winning against the Chiefs. Not only do I think that the ceiling is high, I also think that the floor is very high as well being that the Browns have themselves a quarterback, and the Steelers are always above .500. This division plays the NFC West which has two very winnable games, as well as the AFC South which is a gift from the Gods with maybe three very winnable games. I expect the AFC North to have two, if not three teams make it to the post season for the 2023 campaign. Now that we are on to the AFC, we also have to remember that they get the extra at large home game vs the NFC. Let’s take a closer look at each team.
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Buffalo, vs Minnesota, @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Samaje Perine, CB Tre Flowers, CB Eli Apple
Key additions: T Orlando Brown, S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith,
Key Draft Picks: Edge Myles Murphy, CB DJ Turner, S Jordan Battle, RB Chase Brown
Summary: The Bengals were so close to another super bowl appearance and many thought they had it during the AFC Championship game in Kansas City. This team was relatively healthy during the regular season, but unfortunately, they lost some offensive line and receivers late into the playoffs which caused all kinds of issues. I also do not think that the Bengals used Joe Mixon to his capabilities only giving him a total of 11 touches. Cincinnati was out-coached and outclassed for most of that game. To be honest, “Who dey” was out-coached in the game before as well vs the Ravens. Maybe you can call them lucky to even be in that game, but they were also unlucky to lose home field advantage due to the Buffalo Bills cancelled game before the playoffs. Had the Bengals won that cancelled game, they are the ones with home field advantage. The good news is that this team will have a solid and a healthy offensive line along with a top three quarterback in smoking Joe Burrow coming into the 2023 season. From a defensive perspective, I do not like what this team lost at safety, and that could be a weakness when it comes down to facing the strong passing game in the AFC. Cincinnati is really relying on their draft picks to turn out this year. For the start of the season, the Bengals secondary will remain a bit decimated with the Vonn Bell and the Jessie Bates loss until further notice. The good news is that their tough division isn’t a very pass heavy one, so there is hope that they can get that defense where it was last year ranking number eight in overall EPA. If the draft turns out, then this team will be another big super bowl contender. I think that the Bengals once again come out of the starting gate slow, and figure it out by early to mid-season. Even though I have a high projected win total, I could see this team taking a step back due to the poor coaching of Zac Taylor.
My Number: 11.69
Action: Lean over
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 6.5
2. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -130
2022 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.32
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Detroit, @ LA Chargers, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Greg Roman, G Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver, DE Calais Campbell
Key additions: OC Todd Monkin, WR Odell Beckham Jr, CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor
Key Draft Picks: WR Zay Flowers, LB Trenton Simpson and a few dudes.
Summary: A simple fourteen point swing is really what did this quarterback-less Ravens team in during the playoffs. The Lamar Jackson injury certainly hurt being that I do not think that he fumble sixes at that goal line. In saying that, Lamar hasn’t had the best last few seasons under offensive coordinator Greg Roman as it is. Jackson ranked in EPA last year before missing the final six games due to injuries and contract disputes which was a bad look to his teamates. Now that Lamar proved all of the media pundits wrong by getting a massive contract without an agent, he has to now perform from an integrity aspect, gain his respect back, and maybe this is the year for him and the Ravens. The signing of Odell Beckham doesn’t really do a lot for me personally, and I think that they should have drafted defense from the get-go instead of a wide receiver. The Ravens offense is now up to a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monkin to get this team going. Todd has won some national championships at Georgia, and will have some new schemes built to fit the Lamar led offense to help create more space and some big plays coming into the 2023 NFL Season. Even though the Ravens didn’t get a lot of help from the draft, we have to remember that last year mid-season, they got the best linebacker in the game in Roquan Smith from the Bears for just a second round pick. I have to be optimistic here being that they have the Coach and a lot of Talent to potentially win the AFC North division. Baltimore’s schedule looks pretty good being that this team gets +9 net rest days, and plays nobody off of bye weeks or Thursday games. At +240, this looks like a pretty good deal being that this is the team that matches up best vs the Bengals.
My Number: 10.66
Action – Take Ravens to win the division +240 – 1 star
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3.25
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.09
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, vs New England
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Cameron Sutton, LB Robert Spillane, ILB Devin Bush, G Trenton Scott, S Terrell Edmonds, CB Will Jackson, ILB Myles Jack
Key additions: G Isaac Seumalo, LB Cole Holcomb, CB Patrick Peterson, G Nate Herbig, OLB Elandon Roberts, S Keanu Neal
Key Draft Picks: T Broderick Jones, CB Joey Porter Jr, DL Keanu Benton, TE Darnell Washington, Edge Nick Herbig
Summary: Well, I do not have to feel like Nostradamus to be proven right about Mitch Trubisky, but does that really even matter? The Steelers have found their franchise quarterback in in Kenny Pickett, and if it wasn’t for such a slow start last year, this team might have limped into the wildcard spot. I must say that even though this team lost some linebackers, they certainly crushed it in free agency as well as the 2023 NFL Draft. I love how Pittsburgh has added some big offensive and defensive trenches. On offense they drafted one of the best Tackles in Broderick Jones while signing free agent Guards Isaac Seiumalo and Nate Herbig. I also really like that this team did on defense drafting Keeanu Benton from Wisconsin while resigning Larry Ogunjobi. An area of concern for this team is at the wide receiver positions being that they got rid of Chase Claypool to the Bears. The depth certainly took a hit when they failed to draft or sign another one in the offseason. Another negative issue for this team is that last year, this team was the healthiest team in all of the NFL, so I have to do expect some injury regression here. Even in this rough divsion, the Steelers have the schedule to make some serious noise coming into the 2023 season. Pittsburgh has +7 rest days as well as a pretty favorable at large meetings @ Las Vegas, Green Bay and New England. I think that this team has a great shot in making the playoffs and an outside shot to win the division.
My Number: 9.55
Action – Strong lean over – Take them to make the playoffs at +140 – .5 stars and sprinkle some on the division at +500 (premium members got this earlier at +650)
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: 1.5
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -150
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.99
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Denver, vs Chicago, vs New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DC Joe Woods, QB Jacoby Brissett, C Hjalte Froholdt, DT Taven Bryan, DE Chris Winovich, CB Greedy Williams, ILB Deion Jones, S John Johnson, RB Kareem Hunt, DE Jadeveon Clowney
Key additions: DC Jim Schwartz, DE Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornill, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, WR Marquise Goodwin, CB Michael Ford, S Rodney McCloud, QB DeShawn Watson will have a full season
Key Draft Picks: WR Cedric Tillman, T Dawand Jones and a bunch of hope
Summary: Doesn’t this Browns team kinda feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from last year except with a younger quarterback? I mean, don’t get me wrong, this team still has a lot of talent, but I feel that they are getting a little bit older in the trenches. Let’s start with the good. Cleveland finally has a competent quarterback in DeShawn Watson who is primed to play the full season. This team also has plenty of talent that they have compiled over the last few years to attempt to make a super bowl run. I do like the hiring of proven defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. He’ll bring some attitude to this defense. This might be the spark that this defense needs to put it all together. I also have to love the fact that the Browns, like the Ravens, do not play anyone off of bye weeks or Thursday night games which nets them +10 days of rest. Now for the bad. For starters, Kevin Stefanski is still the coach of the Browns. I truly believe he is overrated and doesn’t know how to coach games in the clutch. Next is this team’s rushing defense. The Browns took a step back only ranking 25th in opponent rushing yards per game. They picked up Dalvin Tomlinson from the Vikings, but I don’t believe that he enough when this team has big holes at Linebacker. The Browns ranked dead last in rush EPA. I do not like that at all in this run heavy division. Finally, I think that DeShawn Watson, although extremely talented, could struggle some their first five games vs the Bengals, @ the Steelers, home vs the Titans, vs the Ravens and then vs the 49ers. The Titans should be a win but the other four are iffy at best. I think if you want to take an under on this team’s win total, you do it now. If you want to take an over, then wait until week 6.
JP Sears over 17.5 pitching outs (Caesars -121) risking 1.21u to win 1u
JP Sears takes the mound for the terribly bad, yet winners of 2 straight, Oakland Athletics. This kid has been wheeling and dealing as of late, and I believe I have come up with the perfect prop to back him on. In his last 5 starts, he has a 2.33 ERA, has only given up 8 hits in 27 innings pitched and hitter have a .194 BA versus him. His WHIP in the month of May was an astounding 0.95. Today he gets to face a weak Brewers line-up hitting .227 this season, and only .210 vs lefties. Sears has been very good vs righties this season, giving up a BA of .211. Ironically the Brewers went righty heavy today and immediately I asked myself why? Well, due to his lack of command last outing vs Pittsburgh, Brewers head coach Craig Counsell was sure to start his 5 guys with high walk percentages. This does not concern me one bit as command has not been a problem for JP. Let’s get him through 6 innings today!
The 155th running of the Belmont Stakes takes place today at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the American Triple Crown of horse racing.
Race Information:
Track: Belmont Park
Location: Elmont, New York, United States
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 12
Post Time: 7:02 PM ET
Length: 1 1/2 Miles (12 Furlongs)
Purse: $1,500,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 12 & 13, 2nd Half Gold Cup/Belmont, Met/Belmont Doubles ($5), Leg F 2 Day Pick 6 (.20)
6 – James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)
Preakness Stakes Storylines:
Forte (#6) was a late scratch in the Kentucky Debry after suffering an injured hoof. He was held out of the Preakness as well and will make his return to racing in the final leg of the Triple Crown. His last race was on April 1st so it’s unsure as to what type of performance we’ll get from him here.
National Treasure (#4) is coming off a victory in the Preakness Stakes. This is Bob Baffert’s first horse in the Belmont Stakes since Justify in 2018.
Belmont Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:
Post Position
Wins
1
24
2
13
3
15
4
10
5
15
6
9
7
14
8
7
9
4
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Odds
1
Tapit Shoes
20-1
2
Tapit Trice
3-1
3
Arcangelo
8-1
4
National Treasure
5-1
5
Il Miracolo
30-1
6
Forte
5-2
7
Hit Show
10-1
8
Angel of Empire
7-2
9
Red Route One
15-1
Horse Preview:
Name: Tapit Shoes
Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Spendthrift Farm et al
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
1
1
2023
3
0
1
1
2022
2
1
0
0
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Tapit Trice
Odds: 3-1
Owner(s): Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
4
0
1
2023
4
3
0
0
2022
2
1
0
1
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Arcangelo
Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Blue Rose Farm
Trainer: Jena Antonucci
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
1
0
2023
3
2
0
0
2022
1
M
1
0
Belmont
1
1
0
0
Name: National Treasure
Odds: 5-1
Owner(s): SF Racing et al
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
1
2
2023
3
1
0
1
2022
3
1
1
1
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Il Miracolo
Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Soto Eduardo
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Marcos Meneses
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
2
3
0
2023
5
1
0
0
2022
5
1
3
0
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Forte
Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Repole Stable and St Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
6
0
0
2023
2
2
0
0
2022
5
4
0
0
Belmont
1
1
0
0
Name: Hit Show
Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
3
1
0
2023
3
1
1
0
2022
3
2
0
0
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Angel of Empire
Odds: 7-2
Owner(s): Albaugh Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
4
1
1
2023
4
2
1
1
2022
3
2
0
0
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Name: Red Route One
Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): SF Racing et al
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
2
2
1
2023
5
1
2
0
2022
5
1
0
1
Belmont
0
0
0
0
Projected Pace:
Front Runners
National Treasure (#4)
Tapit Shoes (#1)
Off the Pace
Forte (#6)
Il Miracolo (#5)
Middle/ Back of the Pact
Hit Show (#7)
Arcangelo (#3)
Tapit Trice (#2)
Closers
Angel of Empire (#8)
Red Route One (#9)
Picks:
To Win:
2,8
Exacta ($1 -> $6):
2,8/ 2,3,4,8
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Rangers ML-104 (BetRivers) risking 1.3u to win 1.25u
You must go back to May 3rd and May 5th to find back-to-back losses for the Texas Rangers. After getting a complete game from Gray on Thursday yet losing 1 nil, they got hammered by Tampa last night from an excellent start by Glasnow and not so much from Heaney and the pen for Texas. The Rangers are 14-6 off a loss and seem to be more inspired heading back to the ballpark. I mean hey, good teams are right? Yes, I just called them a good team. Potential comeback player of the year candidate, and in my opinion Cy Young (I know it’s a reach) candidate Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for Texas looking to stop this slide. Now stopping Tampa’s offense will be no easy task, as they are 2nd in the league in offense and home runs, and 1st in OPS. They have struggled at the plate as of late, only hitting .220 in their last 10, while averaging 4 runs per game well below their season average. Eovaldi has just been a monster this year, sporting a 2.29 ERA, 1.49 on the road and recording 52 of his last 54 inning pitched SCORELESS! Also ranking at the top of the league in almost every advance metric out there. Baseball savant has his velocity and movement this season compared to Wheeler 2019 and 20, Thor in 2018 and Burnes in 2020. His fastball is coming in at 96mph this season, with times hitting 100. More importantly he ranks at the top of league in barrel % and xERA/xwOBA. Tampa as a team is hitting .190 vs Eovaldi, with Franco and Diaz each 2/12 vs him and Arozarena 1/13. This is the heart of Tampa’s offense. He has much success vs Tampa in general facing them 6 times as a Red Sock the last 2 years, with 5 of the 6 being excellent starts. I think this is a terrible spot for Rays starter Taj Bradley who since his call back up from the minors has been better but has still had a share of problems. Garcia, Jung and Duran all righties, have an xSLG in the .500’s which is bad news for Bradley with righties hitting almost .300 off him this year. Let’s take the Rangers today to get the win in Tampa for a small unit upgrade.
The 155th running of the Belmont Stakes is a special one. This year is the 50th anniversary of the GOAT Secretariat and the smoke from the wild fires in Canada has cleared. It should be a pretty nice day today at Belmont Park in New York with high of 78 degrees. The three horses that I will be keying in is the 3 horse Arcangelo. Going off at 8-1 isn’t a bad price for a lightly raced horse who broke 100 in his Brisnet speed figures. The Next is Forte. Not the greatest price at 5-2, but this horse was the favorite in the derby before being scratched due to a foot issue. The horse is fine now and he has the best closing speed of the bunch. Finally, I am going with Angel of Empire going off at 7/2. This horse could have won the Kentucky Derby if he hit the whole before Mage got in. Some of the horses that I am not as high on are Preakness winner National Treasure who had a very easy race with low speed fractions. I don’t think he gets the massive 1.5 mile distance. I will be tossing Miricolo and Red Route One who doesn’t belong in the field. I will construct my plays to make a profit if one of my horses hit the top, but I also have some savor situations inserted as well. Here is how I am constructing my ticket. Best of luck everyone!
UFC 289 should be fun one to watch. The Main event is Irene Aldana vs Amanda Nunez, but let’s face it, the real main event is this fight between Charles and Beneil. I must admit that I have been wrong about the former champion Charles a few times in some of his last fights. Nobody can find the neck like this man does and he has the most submissions in UFC history. In saying that, Beneil has a pretty darn good grown game himself. Beniel has defended 80% of his opponents take down attempts while Charles is only at a smaller 55%. This will be key in this fight. Both are pretty solid at taking down their opponents at 2.37 per 15 min for Chares and 1.95 for Beneil. When it comes to striking, I have to go with Beneil again at 3.81 significant strikes per min to 3.48 with Charles. As far as power is concerned, Beneil is the stronger and slightly larger man. He has more power to his punches and will also have a better ground and pound game. I am very bummed that this fight isn’t going five rounds because it is very deserving of a main event, but at the same time, I have to go with Beneil here and try and shop around for the best number.
Amanda is by far the better fighter, and if you look at strikes defended, it isn’t even close. 2.75 for Amanda to 5.71 for Aldana. Imavov has an easier path to victory if he just watches Chris Curtis fight Jack Hermannson. Curtis is too small for the middle weight class and will be chasing Imavov all over the ring while getting counterpunched and kicked. Imavov is better on the ground as well.
