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The Arnold Palmer Invitational – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
-

Chris Kirk wins the Honda Classic capturing his fifth career PGA tour victory. This was his first since the 2015 Charles Schwab Challenge.

We stay in Florida as the Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place in Orlando. It’s one of the newly ‘elevated’ events which has caused nineteen of the top twenty players in the world to compete at Bay Hill this week. It should be a great week of golf so let’s break down the event and try to find some winners.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: March 2nd, 2023 – March 5th, 2023
  • Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
  • Course: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Champion/ Challenger)
  • Course Type: Florida
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,466 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
  • Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .375”
  • Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 3”
  • Bunkers: 84
  • Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 / $3,600,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 550
  • Field/ Cut: 120 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2022: +3
    • 2021: +2
    • 2020: +3
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2022: 73.89 (+1.89), Rank 4 of 50
    • 2021: 73.02 (+1.02), Rank 9 of 51
    • 2020: 74.11 (+2.11), Rank 1 of 41

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: David Wilson (1961)
  • Renovations: Arnold Palmer (2009)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – The Honda Classic – RESULTS
    • Quail Hallow – 2021 Wells Fargo Championship – RESULTS
  • Comparable Location (Orlando, Florida):
    • PGA National (The Champion) – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida – The Honda Classic
    • TPC Sawgrass – Ponte Verda Beach, Florida – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • Innisbrook Resort – Palm Harbor, Florida – Valspar Championship
  • Comparable Yardage (7,466 Yards):
    • Vidanta Vallarta – 7,456 Yards – Mexico Open
    • The Country Club of Jackson – 7,461 Yards – Sanderson Farms Championship
    • TPC Craig Ranch – 7,468 Yards – AT&T Byron Nelson
  • Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermudagrass .110”):
    • PGA WEST (Nicklaus) – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – The American Express
    • Kapalua (Plantation) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – Sentry ToC
    • PGA National (The Champion) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – The Honda Classic
  • Comparable Average Green Size (7,500 sq. ft.):
    • Riviera Country Club – 7,500 sq. ft. – The Genesis Invitational
    • TPC Summerlin – 7,400 sq. ft. – Shriners Children’s Open

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, March 2nd, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, March 3rd, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, March 4th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
    • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, March 5th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
    • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Mostly Sunny 86 F, 11 mp/h W, 54% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 12 mp/h W, 53% Humidity, 19% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 10 mp/h W, 54% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: AM Showers 80 F, 11 mp/h W, 57% Humidity, 41% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Arnold Palmer Invitational was founded in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Invitational. The event went through several different names but has played under the current name since 2007. In 2004, MasterCard became the main sponsor of the tournament and has retained the rights ever since.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge has hosted this event since its debut. Arnold Palmer bought the club back in 1970 and then renovated the course in 2009. The renovation included an overhaul of all 18 greens, the reworking of most bunkers, and additional yardage added which changed the Par from 71 to 72. It’s known as one of the toughest courses on the Tour and continually attracts a very strong field.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the newly ‘elevated’ or ‘designated’ events on Tour. With that, the purse has increased to $20 million which is a significant increase from last year’s purse of $12 million.

Tiger Woods holds the record for most wins at this event with 7; 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013.

  • 72-Hole Record:
    • 264, Payne Stewart (1987)
  • 18-Hole Record:
    • 62, Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984), Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Just like last week at PGA National, Bay Hill is an extremely difficult course. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2022, only four holes played under par No. 4, No. 6, No. 12, and No. 16.

It plays 7,466 yards which makes it one of the longest courses on the Tour. In addition to the length, the fairways rank 19 out of 54 in terms of width. Driving Accuracy is a crucial stat this week as the rough, that’s 3″ thick, can be extremely difficult to play out of.

The greens are some of the largest that players will be on see Tour as they rank 7th out of 54. While the greens are some of the biggest, they roll very fast making approach shots very difficult as players will most likely be hitting long irons into them given the distance. As if the distance and fast bermudagrass greens aren’t enough, Bay Hill has the 15th most bunkers on Tour and the 11th most water-danger holes.

Image

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6th

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
  • Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x3)
  • Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
  • Proximity: 200 – 225 Yards
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 120 players in the field at this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Nineteen of the world’s top twenty players will be in the field with the lone exclusion being Cameron Smith. Scottie Scheffler will look to defend his title and join Matt Every (’14-’15), Tiger Woods (’12-’13, ’08-’09, ’00-’01-’02-’03), and Loren Roberts (’94-’95) as the only players to have won this event in back to back years. Tiger Woods won this event, then known as the Bay Hill Innovational, four consecutive times in a row ranging from 2000 to 2003. In his 2003 victory, he won by 11-strokes which is the largest margin of victory in the history of the tournament. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

  • Jon Rahm (+650), has won three tournaments this season which is the most of any player. He’s coming off a win the win at the Genesis Invitational where he gained 3.17 strokes on approach over the field. In his seven PGA Tour starts this year, Rahm has yet to finish worse than T8. Rahm finished tied for 17th in his lone appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year.
  • Rory McIlroy (+850), won the CJ Cup in South Carolina to start the season but has failed to crack the top 20 in his two other starts on Tour. He finished T32 at the WM Pheonix Open and T29 at the Genesis Invitational. In both of those events, he struggled on the greens losing strokes putting. McIlroy has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his eight appearances at Bay Hill which includes his 2018 victory.
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1000), successfully defended his title at the WM Pheonix Open a few weeks ago giving him his first victory of the year. He’ll look to do the same at Bay Hill after winning this event last season. In his eight PGA Tour starts this year, Scheffler has only finished outside the top-12 once.
  • Max Homa (+1600), has won two events this season, the Farmers Insurance Open and Fortinet Championship. In his last start, he finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational failing to outduel Jon Rahm down the stretch. In his eight PGA Tour starts this year, he has never finished outside the top 40. Homa will make his fourth appearance at Bay Hill finishing T24/ T10/ T17 in the three previous seasons.
  • Justin Thomas (+2000), will make his return to Bay Hill after only competing in the 2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T49. After a slow start to the season where Thomas finished T40 at the CJ Cup, JT has finished inside the top-25 in his last five starts on Tour.
  • Collin Morikawa (+2000), has six top-20 finishes in his eight starts on Tour this year. He’s coming off a T6 finish at the Genesis Invitational. Before that, he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open struggling on the greens. This will be his first appearance at Bay Hill since 2020 when he finished T9.
  • Xander Schauffele (+2200), finished tied for 24th in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut last season. So far this year, he has six top-20 finishes in his eight Tour starts. One of those finishes outside the top 20 came a couple of weeks ago at Riviera CC where Schauffele finished tied for thirty-third.
  • Tony Finau (+2200), has struggled at this event missing the cut in two of his four appearances at Bay Hill. His best finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was in 2017 where he finished T28. He started the season missing the WWT Championship but followed it up with a win at the Houston Open a week later. Since then, Finau has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last six starts on Tour.
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200), will be making his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut this week. He’s coming off a 3rd place finish at the Genesis Invitational where he gained strokes in every category. His best finish of the year was at the Shriner’s Children’s Open where he finished tied for second.

 

  • Previous Winners in the field:
    • Scottie Scheffler (’22), Tyrrell Hatton (’20), Francesco Molinari (’19), Rory McIlroy (’18), Jason Day (’16), Martin Laird (’11)
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

  • Rory McIlroy: T11/ T27/ T4/ 1/ T6/ T5/ T10/ T13
  • Scottie Scheffler: T15/ 1
  • Sungjae Im: T3/ 3/ T21/ T20
  • Max Homa: T24/ T10/ T17
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: T18/ 7/ T20
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/ T27/ T13/ MC/ 2/ T9/ T10/ T9
  • Jason Kokrak: MC/ 4/ T6/ T20/ T56/ MC/ T10/ T18/ T8/ T26
  • Chris Kirk: MC/ T16/ T60/ MC/ T12/ MC/ 13/ T15/ T8/ T5
  • Corey Conners: MC/ MC/ 3/ T11
  • Tyrrell Hatton: T4/ T69/ T29/ 1/ T21/ T2
  • Tommy Fleetwood: T10/ T26/ T3/ MC/ T10/ T20

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

  • Sepp Straka: MC/ MC/ MC
  • Peter Malnati: MC/ MC/ MC
  • Scott Stallings: T48/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ T40/ MC
  • Shane Lowry: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
  • Matthew NeSmith: MC/ MC
  • Cameron Davis: MC/ MC
  • Scott Piercy: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ T54/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
    • Price: 12-1
  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
    • Price: 55-1
  • 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
    • Price: 33-1
  • 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
    • Price: 20-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

Last week with the weak field, I went with a higher volume card as I usually do. In those events, there’s more unpredictability so you want to spread the units around more to include more names than usual. This week is a completely different approach. This event is very top heavy so I went with a few guys near the top of the odds board.

  • Collin Morikawa (+2100) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units
  • Will Zalatoris (+2200) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
  • Xander Schauffele (+2400) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.34 to win 8.16 Units

Xander has had a strong start to the season finishing five top-15 finishes. In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, he had his worst finish of the year (T33). His approach play has been trending in the right direction as he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. In his lone appearance at Bay Hill, he finished T24 losing strokes on around the green. This has been an area that Xander has struggled in as he has lost strokes in this category in each of his last two starts. The good news is that SG: Around the Green hasn’t been a pathway to success at this course. While he has yet to win since going back to back at the Travelers and Genesis Scottish Open, I think he has what it takes to win this week.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Sungjae Im (+140) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Sungjae Im hasn’t been great in his last two starts finishing T56 at the Genesis Invitational and T42 at the Honda Classic. However, I’m not putting too much weight behind that as he missed the cut at the Honda Classic last year and still managed to play well at the API. Before that, he has three consecutive finishes inside the top 20. In his four appearances, Im has played well at this event, finishing T3/ 3rd/ T21/ T20. In terms of key stats, Im ranks well in nearly every category this week. While his putting has been an issue as of late, he has gained strokes on the green in each appearance at Bay Hill.

  • Tyrrell Hatton (+150) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Tyrrell Hatton had made the cut in each of his four starts on Tour this year. During that span, he has top-20 finishes with the other two being no worse than T45. Hatton has thrived at Bay Hill winning in 2020, finishing T21 in 2021 and T2 last year. That victory was his first and lone career victory on Tour. For key stats, he ranks well in each major strokes gained category outside of around the green. However, he’s recently been trending in the right direction in that category and has gained strokes around the green in each of his last three appearances here. Given his overall recent form and course history, Hatton seems primed to continue his success at Bay Hill.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Aaron Wise (+125) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Aaron Wise finished T17 last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite losing 1.01 strokes putting. At the Honda Classic, he finished T29 after missing two consecutive cuts. Before that stretch, he finished 6/ T15/ T22/ T18. Wise has been much improved on the greens, ranking 12th in strokes gained this season. His approach play has been the area that’s hurt him but he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last two trips to Bay Hill. While Wise has yet to win since 2018, he has been able to put together some impressive finishes. This is also a great number given as FD has it set at +110, while BetRivers has it at -110.

  • Tom Hoge (+140) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Tom Hoge has made the cut in three of his four appearances at Bay Hill. In the three starts that he did play on the weekend, he finished T26/ T15/ T32. He’s played pretty well this year ranking 2nd in SG: Approach, 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 45th in SG: Putting. His putting has seen a significant improvement from last season as he finished 105th on Tour in strokes gained. Hoge has struggled off the tee but has gained strokes in that category in five of his last seven starts. His game’s been trending in the right direction and he should be able to finish inside the number this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The Arnold Palmer Invitational: 5.10 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

Expected Bets For – Episode 35 – February 28th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, @fnpropsguy, and I break down the games for February 28th along with several other topics.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Around the League
  • NHL Preview/ Picks – February 28th, 2023
    • Detroit Red Wings @ Ottawa Senators
    • Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
    • Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
    • Los Angeles Kings @ Winnipeg Jets
    • New York Islanders @ Minnesota Wild
    • Pittsburgh Penguins @ Nashville Predators
    • Seattle Kraken @ St. Louis Blues
    • Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames
    • Chicago Blackhawks @ Arizona Coyotes
    • Montreal Canadiens @ San Jose Sharks

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
  • Dan :@fnpropsguy

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

Lay the Points, Literally and Figuratively, with Eric Rocco

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

Our week started out with a BANG, with our 3 unit CRUSH last night!

+25.35 units on the month! Let’s continue to build.

Arkansas at Tennessee -5.5 (O/U 133.5) 9:00pm ET

The 12th ranked Tennessee Volunteers will look to improve their resume Tuesday night, and having any kind of let down after trouncing South Carolina this past weekend will not improve those chances. Turn the clocks back to February 4th, they were ranked 2nd in the country with their sights set on a #1 seed! Since then have lost 4 of 6, and currently a 3 seed according to Joe Lunardi’s projections. Two of those 4 losses came by 1 point as double digit favorites in both, yet somehow they turned it on and beat an explosive Alabama squad the game after.

While the Razorbacks shoot at a high %(less on the road) and have shown they have real talent, they haven’t faced a defense like the Vols. They force 15.4 TO’s per game, and hold teams to astoundingly low shooting %’s. At 35.9 FG%, which drops to 33.3% at home, as well as leading the country in 3pt% against at 18.9%. The Razorbacks already rank 305th in the country in 3pt%, not a good combination! The Vols aggressiveness defensively, unfortunately can lead to quite a few fouls, which leads to FT’s. In their last two losses, they have fouled 24+ in each, and given up 35+ FT attempts in each. Luckily for them, Arkansas has shot 65.7% from the line in their L5.

Tennessee averages over 11 rebounds a game, and 20.3 assists per game at home in their L5. With their overall shooting % going up 3.3% at home. All this will be needed vs this Razorback team. The Vols are 6-2 ATS at home off a win, while the Hogs are 0-3 ATS off a loss on the road. Tennessee likes playing at home and ironically likes playing at night. They’re 10-5 ATS at home, opposed to 3-6 on the road. At night they’re 13-7 ATS, as opposed to 2-7 during the day.

All that said this will be a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me on the Vols tonight!

Tennessee -5.5 (BetMGM -115) 2 units

 

 

Minnesota at LA Clippers -6.5 (O/U 232.5) 10:00pm ET

Minnesota continues their road trip down to Southern California to take on the Clippers. The T’Wolves are 0-2 after the all-star break, and are currently on a 3 game losing streak. In those three games they have scored a dreadful, 17, 17 and 19 points in the 4th quarter. All games that were most definitely winnable. They blew a big lead vs Washington before the break, then lost a 20 win Charlotte squad and continued vs a Curry-less Golden State team with Naz Reid scoring a career high 30 points, only to fall short again. Up and coming future star Anthony Edwards hasn’t played well as of recently either, shooting 26% vs the Warriors, while committing an average of 5 turnovers per game in his L3, and now has to face a defense looking to buckle down.

These teams have split the season series 1-1, with each team winning in their respective buildings. The T’Wolves won their meeting by 13 points, but the Clippers were without Paul George, Kawai Leonard and obviously Westbrook. None of this bodes well for Minnesota, since this is a completely different LAC squad that can turn it on defensively. With Zubac most likely coming back Tuesday night as well, only adds more challenges for Minnesota offensively.

I will be laying the points with the Clippers tonight out West, looking to bounce back after two OT losses, with a small UNIT UPGRADE.

Clippers -6.5 (BetMGM -110) 1.25 units

Let’s end February strong!

For anyone tailing, good luck and lets bring these home.

NHL Preview & Picks – February 28th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bet along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Pick(s):

  • Tampa Bay Lightning in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings

In their last matchup against the Panthers, the Bolts were embarrassed being defeated 7-1. The Lightning are also coming off a brutal loss against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday night. After an early 2-1 lead, Tampa Bay surrendered 6 goals in the 2nd period. Five of those goals came within the last five minutes of the period. Brian Elliot was in net and has been average this season with a +0.4 GSAx. Andrei Vasilevskiy will presumably get the start tonight and is coming shutout performance against the Red Wings. Sergei Bobrovsky who is the expected starter for the Panthers has allowed at least three goals in each of his last four starts. He’s also allowed at least three goals in four of his last five starts against the Lightning. While both of these teams have failed to find any sort of consistency as of late, this seems like a great spot for the Lightning.

 

  • Boston Bruins (-123) – Barstool

The Bruins have now won their last 7 games and are coming off a 3-2 victory against the Edmonton Oilers last night. They’ve been fantastic on this road trip so far outscoring their opponents 12-8. Linus Ullmark, who scored in his last start, has been great allowing two goals or less in each of his last five starts. Jacob Markstrom on the other hand has allowed for goals against in each of his last two starts. He’s also struggled historically against the Bruins allowing 4/3/4/5 in his last four starts against them. Boston has been trending upward in their last ten while Calgary has taken a different direction. Despite Calgary having the advantage in terms of rest, the Bruins are a far superior team and should be able to handle Calgary.

 

Lean(s):

  • Detroit Red Wings (+115) – BetMGM
  • Winnipeg Jets/ Los Angeles Kings Under 6.0 (-110) – PointsBet
  • Seattle Kraken/ St. Louis Blues Over 6.0 (-115) – DraftKings

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Victor Hedman over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
    • Victor Hedman has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Panthers rank 23rd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.64. On the road, that number drops slightly to 31.52. In his last five games against the Panthers, Hedman has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of those matchups.
  • Aaron Ekblad over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – BetRivers
    • Aaron Ekblad has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Lightning rank 18th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.42. On the road, that number drops slightly to 30.69. Tampa Bay has also given up the 11th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen in their last five games. In his last five games against the Panthers, Ekblad has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of those matchups.
  • Michael Eyssimont over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
    Michael Eyssimont has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 5.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Canadiens rank 27th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.66. On the road, that number increases to 35.69. Montreal has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers this year.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

College Basketball Tuesday Two-Pack 2/28/23 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

San Diego State vs Boise State -1.5 O/U 134

Senior night oh what a night!  Well.   That is if your team has seniors.   The good thing for Boise State is that they have four seniors that play meaningful minutes!   These teams played earlier in the year in San Diego with the Aztecs getting a very easy win over the Broncos.  One key factor in this game was that senior and point guard Marcus Shaver was injured for Boise State and didn’t play in that game.   Both of these teams are very defensive oriented ranking 11th and 12th on Kenpom, but San Diego State has the higher offensive efficiency.  In saying that, Boise state has the better effective FG% at 51.8% compared to 51.2% for the Aztecs.   The  offensive rebounding edge goes to San Diego State, but I expect a better effort in that category here at home for the Broncos.  One area where the Aztecs haven’t been themselves in on the road ranking 334th away from home on haslametrics.   Boise State shoots 54.6% effective FG% at home while San Diego State shoots 49.1% on the road.   The Aztecs are coming off of a last shot win in New Mexico and I do not think that they can duplicate that effort.   Win or lose the Aztecs are in the big Dance.   Boise needs this one.  Take the Broncos.

Boise State -1.5 – 2 stars

Michigan State vs Nebraska +3.5 O/U 138

Imagine being up 13 points with 90 seconds left in a college basketball game?  What are your odds of winning?   99.999%?   Don’t ask that question to the Spartans after blowing that massive lead to the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday.   Michigan State at 17-11 is a very solid basketball team and they could certainly do some damage in the tournament, but Nebraska is at 15-14 is trying to make a case here to join the party.  From a matchup perspective three point shooting, the mid range shots, and the rebounding goes to Sparty, but the near proximity shots and layups go to Nebraska ranking 31st on near proximity offense to Sparty ranking 129th at near proximity defense.  The Corn Huskers right now in Big 10 play in February are 5-1 with huge wins vs Maryland, Rutgers and Wisconsin.  I also love how Nebraska ranks 29th at home on Haslametrics while Sparty ranks 304thon the road.   Let’s eat some corn.

Nebraska +3.5 – 2 stars

Buck the Trends and Back the Tar Heels Tonight

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

UNC at Florida St +7.5 (O/U 154.5)

7:00pm Eastern Start

As I have stated in my previous articles, the Tar Heels were on the brink of not making the tournament just last week. Now they have a shot at a 20 win season, hoping to make a deep run in the ACC tournament. First things first, take care of the business in front of them. FSU and Duke. Some may consider this a look ahead spot for UNC, but I don’t believe so and here’s why. They need every win, every scoring margin, every dazzle they can find in them to impress the committee and get into the tournament. It all starts with Florida St in Tallahassee tonight! In my opinion a perfect opponent to run up the score on. As Lester Averman says in Mighty Ducks 2, “They’re bigger! They’re stronger! They’re faster! They’ve got more facial hair!” All of this and more!

FSU does not do much of anything well, 214th in scoring at 70.1 points per game, while giving up 76.5 points per game to boot. Defensively they rank at the bottom in almost every category perceivable. They will most definitely have trouble with UNC’s big men, while giving up 9.2 offensive boards a game, UNC has averaged 11.4 of their own in their L5. This will lead to fouls andddd ONE’S! UNC averages 23 FT’s a game, making 17 of them. Ranking them top 25 in the country in both categories.

FSU won their ‘Super Bowl’ this past Saturday with an unbelievable 25 point come from behind win vs the ultra talented Hurricanes. For a BAD team to pull off a comeback like that, I expect a huge letdown heading into tonight’s contest. UNC scored 94 on these Seminoles just two weeks ago, and I could see that happening again tonight.

BUCK THE TRENDS, all those trends I had mentioned in a previous article, forget them quick! Tar Heels are 1-9 ATS on the road, forget it! Tar heels are 2-14 ATS at night, what did I say? The preparation is different, well it might be, but not tonight! Forget it! This will be a rare 3 unit play for me on the Tar Heels laying the points! Cheers to a blowout.

UNC -7.5 (FanDuel -110) 3 units

Bonus Play

NBA: Boston-New York over 223.5 (Caesars -110) 0.75 unit

For anyone tailing, good luck and lets bring these home.

Podcast 15 – 23 – College Basketball Early Conference Tournament Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have an great show for you today!  March Madness is here, and the early conference tournaments are seeded!  Kiev comes on solo to give out some of his future plays that he has made for this week’s college basketball tournament action!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

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Audio Player

TRIPLE PLAY, back these Road Dogs

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

Wichita St at Tulane -6.5 (O/U 154.5)

3:00pm Eastern Start

The Shockers come off a home loss vs Memphis, where they led for most of the game. Memphis shot 54.7%, a category Wichita has been fairly successful this season. A top 25 defense in shooting %, at 40.3% per game, that number drops to a vigorous 39.9 on the road.

The Shockers will look to avenge an OT loss just a month ago at home vs the Green Wave, a game where they led by 16 at one point and a 5 point lead late in the contest. Tulane is a team who shoots at a high % and runs at a fast pace, Wichita St will try to counter that slowing the pace down, and limiting Tulane’s possessions. Luckily for the Shockers, Tulane averages a rock bottom 4.8 offensive rebounds a game, and has given up 10.2 steals a game in their L5.

Wichita St will need to shoot the ball well at points in this game to stay with Tulane, in their L5 games they are well over their season average of 44.0%, shooting at 50.8% a game in those five. The Shockers go on the road as dogs, and play the role well. They’re 8-0-1 ATS away, 8-4-1 ATS as dogs, 5-0-1 away vs teams over .500 and are 8-4 ATS away off of a loss.

I’ll be taking the Shockers in this spot, off of a loss and on the road they are 6-0 ATS! So let’s make this a UNIT UPGRADE!

Wichita St +6.5 (PointsBet -110) 1.25 units

 

Now let’s head to the NBA!

Toronto at Cleveland -7.5 (O/U 218)

6:00pm Eastern Start

The Raptors are 2-0 SU after the break, granted against lower levels of competition, but I beleive this team can hang with the higher ranks in the East. Toronto looks to sweep the season series vs the Cavs, being victorious in all three meetings this season. They come off a defensive victory vs the Pistons, where they only shot 37.5% from the field and 26.9% from three. Defense has been a focal point for this aggressive group, averaging 16.6 turnovers a game.

On ZERO days rest, the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6, winning 4 outright all by 9+ points. They play this dog role well, they are 9-2 ATS as dogs of 3-7 points. Toronto has used its size to its advantage, averaging 29 free throw attempts per game in their L5. A category they can beat the Cavs with tonight.

The Cavs come into this affair on a bit of a down slide, losers of three straight. As well as going 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Why do I mention 5 instead of the last 4? Well that’s when things seemed to turn. They came off a dominant victory vs the Pelicans February 10th, and since then have struggled. They played the Bulls at home and were behind most of the game, they stumbled against San Antonio just getting by. Then they got outplayed in Philly, followed by blowing a big lead vs the Nuggets, followed up by giving up 59% shooting to Atlanta. More importantly, they have an overall good defense, but have given up 51% shooting and 43.6% from three in their last 5 games.

So this will be a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me on Toronto, as well we will sprinkle in a light ML play!

Raptors +7.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units

Raptors ML +250 (DraftKings) 0.25 unit

 

 

Minnesota at Golden State -2.5 (O/U 233.5)

7:30pm Eastern Start

These two teams come into this contest shooting the ball very well, the T’Wolves averaging 50.1% in their L5 and the Warriors shooting almost 40% from three in their L5. Defense? Both teams in the bottom 1/3rd in quite a few categories, the one that stands out for Minnesota, they give up 12.6 offensive rebounds per game. Just showing undiscipline, now were going to give the Warriors extra possessions? Look out!

Both teams have a high assist rate of 30.0 and 26.8 per game, which in layman’s terms, leads to easy buckets. The T’Wolves come into this game, averaging 38.6% from three in their L5. Unfortunately for the Warriors giving up the 3 has been a problem recently, with teams shooting 41.6% from downtown.

This series has a tendency of going over, with a record of 8-1 to the over in the L9. Ironically the Warriors on 1 day rest, the over is 21-6-3. Like I said a few days ago, I will be betting over in the 1st half, since Minnesota has a tendency to slow down late. As well as, these two teams average 62.6 and 64.6 points per 1st half.

1H: over 120 (FanDuel -106) 1 unit

For anyone tailing, good luck and let’s rebound(literally and physically)!

College Basketball Sunday Funday 2/26/23 Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Wisconsin vs Michigan -5 O/U 129.5

Gonna call this the bubble game.   Both of these teams need this win to most likely secure themselves into the NCAA tournament.   Starting with 16-11 Wisconsin, they are ranked 70th in net ranking with some pretty rough losses to Wake Forest, Nebraska and two to Northwestern.   Their wins vs USC, Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State are not aging too well and near losses vs Kansas and Michigan State will not help.   Wisconsin is a defensive team who shoots at a poor effective FG rate of 262nd in the league.  Now they did play Michigan at home on Valentines day getting the W, but that game was based on Michigan’s poor start where Wisconsin failed to hit a field goal over the last 10 minutes of the game.   16-12 Michigan is in the same boat with close losses to Kentucky, UNC, Purdue and Virginia while thier best win is Michigan State.   Their loss to number 326th on Kenpom Central Michigan was just pathetic.  Michigan is an offensive based team who ranks 46th in efficiency but their defense isn’t far behind at 55th.   What I like about Michigan here is, not only the desperation, but also the fact that they shoot 53% from the field at home while Wisconsin shoots 47.4% on the road.  This is also senior night and the last home game for the Wolverines who may want to play hard for rotational player Joey Baker.   These teams hate each other, but they also know the importance of this game.   Take Michigan to cover.

Michigan -5 – 2 stars

 

 

Action Packed Saturday Slate with Eric Rocco

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

What a day of basketball, I have three plays today that look like good spots for these teams, as well as offer some value. Let’s dive right in!

Texas A+M at Mississippi St. -1.5 (O/U 126.5)

3:30pm Eastern Start

The Aggies visit the Humphrey Coliseum this Saturday afternoon, winners of 6 in a row and a tremendous road record of 7-2 ATS. With 6 of the 7 outright wins. This A+M team has clearly shown the ability to rattle off wins, they’re 14-6 ATS off a win, with a 6-2 away record off a win. Mississippi St comes off a downright disheartening loss, with Mizzou hitting a 3 at the buzzer in OT. A game they certainly had in their hands a few times. Now they head home where to be honest they haven’t fared very well this season, with a record of 7-8 ATS. As I said a few days ago when we had them vs Mizzou, they’re just a better road team for one reason or another.

Both teams are going to hit the glass hard, averaging over 11 rebounds each offensively per game. The free throw line is where A+M will do its damage Saturday, averaging 25.5 a game this season, as well as almost 30 a game in its L5.

This Aggie squad just flat out plays well on the road and finds ways to get it done, in the L2 years, they’re 12-3 ATS away. This season on three days of rest, seems to be their bread and butter. With a record of 12-3 ATS. So I will take Texas A+M Saturday getting the points! This will be a Unit Upgrade play for me.

Texas A+M +1.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.25 units

 

Our single NBA play today:

Boston at Philadelphia +1.5 (O/U 225.5)

8:30pm Eastern Start

The Celtics head to the Wells Fargo Center Saturday night, off a blown lead vs Indiana where they battled back in OT for a victory. Ironically, the 76ers did a complete 180′. Making a giant comeback vs Memphis, and showing this team has heart!

Home is where the heart is right? Well it is for this Philadelphia squad, where they’re 22-10 ATS, 13-3 ATS at home vs teams over .500, 15-7 ATS at home after a win and winners of 5 in a row, as well as covering. In four of those five wins, they have beaten Memphis, Cleveland, Brooklyn and New York. In my opinion, all quality teams. This stat truly jumped out at me. In short-priced games, -3 to +3, Philadelphia is a whopping 16-4 ATS in their L20 contests.

The Sixers are itching to play Boston again, they had won 6 in a row in this series, until last February where they lost to them by 48 points at home! This season they have played twice in Boston, with the Celtics victorious in each. This is a true revenge spot for Philly, luckily for them, Boston had had trouble defensively as of recently. Giving up 49.9% shooting and 40.1% from three point land.

So this will be a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me!

76ers +1.5 (FanDuel -110) 1.5 units

 

Bonus PLAY: Youngstown St-IUPUI over 152.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit. 6:30pm Eastern Start

For anyone tailing, good luck and let’s cash some winners!

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