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55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
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Nuggets vs Heat +3.5 O/U 211
This is basically the Miami Heat’s season right here tonight and no better place to show some dignity than at home vs the Nuggets. It’s Jimmy Butler time! What can I say bad about the Nuggets? Not much, they have the best offense in the game, but their defense tends to lack at times. Now that they have a nice 2-1 series lead, I think there might be some value on Miami. Do I think that the Heat is going to win this game as a home dog? I am not so sure, however I do think that they can put up some points. Denver has a ton of momentum here and they want to finish out the series next week at home so this spread does worry me some. In saying that, Denver’s defensive efficiency only ranks 15th in the league. I think there will be some points here scored by the Heat and certainly some desperation at the end of this game. The NBA took a hit when Denver swept the Lake show from a financial perspective. I think it would benefit the League if the whistles are hot tonight. Money talks and bullshit walks. take the Heat’s team total over 104
We have a MONSTER show for you today! Gabriel Morency @SportsRage from @SportsGrid and Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @Wagertalk come on to break down some UFC 289 and The 155th running of the Belmont Stakes! First Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev previews the AFC North with some future plays that he likes. Next, Marco comes on and the guys talk about more AFC North. Then, Marco and Kiev get right into the Belmont Stakes! Who are the favorites? Who are the long shots? Which horses are we tossing of of our card? Next, we get right into some football with some more divisional previews to finish out the NFC. Which teams go over their win total? Who goes under? Any futures plays worth looking at? After that, Gabriel Morency comes on and the guys discuss a little NBA (that already happened) and then UFC 289 Nunez vs Aldana with a few of Gabe’s great plays. He also has a CFL bet for us to enjoy! Finally, Kiev breaks down some more UFC 289 with some Free Plays to finish out the show! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Season 1, Podcast 2 of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission is ready for launch!
I have an exciting episode for everyone, as we dive deep into quite a few topics. I will cover the NBA Finals, Week 1 of the CFL, the Belmont Stakes, recap last week’s MLB series, give you a new series for this upcoming weekend and as always end it with “Reflect with Rocco.” Enjoy everybody! Follow me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
Stampeders -2 (BetRivers -105) risking 0.57u to win 0.5u
Opening night for the Stampeders and naturally they land the team that took them out of the playoffs in the 2022 season, but things might look a little different this time around. No Rourke, via NFL. No Butler, signed by Hamilton in the off-season. So how will this offense operate without them? I think they will struggle initially while Adams gets accustomed to being ‘the guy’ and lack of firepower. Not to mention they will have a target on their backs most weeks as Rourke shredded these defenses in 2022, almost embarrassing some of them at points. So needless to say revenge will be on these players and coaches minds. Which segues into why I like Calgary tonight. The revenge factor will be huge, its opening night at home and to be honest this team had a very good year last year. Losing only 6 games in the regular season, with 3 of them to the standout Winnipeg squad and 2 to these Lions. Expect a heavy dose tonight from 2022 RB leader Ka’Deem Carey, taking some of the pressure off of Jake Maier. BC does not really have a strong defense, so I think this is a great defense to face in his debut, as this is HIS team now. Let’s put half a unit on the Stamps to kick off the 2023 campaign!
Blue Bombers ML -200 (BetMGM) risking 1u to win 0.5u
Another intriguing match-up with tons of headlines. For starters Winnipeg is hands down the best team in this league and will look to prove that in 2023 after getting upset in the Grey Cup by 1 point in 2022. Their big off-season acquisition Kenny Lawler will be suspended tonight, caused by issues with Canadian immigration stemming from a guilty plea for impaired driving. With all that said Zach Collaros looks to pick up where he left off last season, with 37 touchdowns and 4183 passing yards. Now for the Ticats, they went and signed two time Grey Cup champion QB Bo-Levi Mitchell. He leaves Calgary with a 90-25 record as a starter and hoping to have the same success Ricky Ray had when he made a big change in the later half of his career with the Argos. Joining him is James Butler, another off-season acquisition by Hamilton. He’s an explosive RB who had over 1000 yards on the ground last season as well as 53 receptions out of the backfield for 4 TD’s. Do I think these guys are going to have immediate success, absolutely not. I think it’s going to take time and some major growing pains along the way, but they do have the potential to be a force come later this season. I am all over the Blue Bombers here, I really don’t want to lay 5 points in Week 1 of any football season, the CFL is no different. So let’s put half a unit on Winnipeg on the ML here at -200.
PASS
Moving on to Saturday, I think this game has way too many question marks to actually put a wager on it. Arbuckle gets the start for Ottawa due to Masoli still not being ready because of last year’s injury, the Redblacks continue to have problems at QB. Is Arbuckle the answer going forward? I’m not so sure, he could be, but Masoli is their guy if healthy. Ottawa has ironically fared very well over the years vs Montreal, which pushed me to stay away from this game. I also don’t like it’s Cody Fajardo’s debut at QB for the Alouettes. There is way too much hype on this guy for me coming into this season. Let’s enjoy this one and hope to get some good information going forward. Pass.
Elks -2 (BetRivers -110) risking 1.1u to win 1u
Let’s end Week 1 with arguably the two worst teams in the league, and also my top pick of Week 1. The Edmonton Elks have their home debut and quite possibly will treat this as their own ‘Grey Cup!’ You have to go back to 2019 to find their last home win, we are in 2023 now, what? Yes, 17 straight home losses for the Elks, but boy do they look juicy to get that first W on opening weekend. They get to face the Roughriders of Saskatchewan who really are not much better. The Riders lost 7 straight to the end 2022, and 9 of 11. They went and got QB Trevor Harris in the off-season, the former Alouette, and he will be in the controls for the Riders this season. They have tons of question marks on both sides of the ball, and didn’t appear to get any better this season. Now for the Elks who were massacred in many games in 2023, are in year 2 of their rebuild, and have a defensive minded coach looking to right the ship this year. Fortunately for them, they ranked dead last in almost every statistical category last season, so there is nowhere to go except up. On the offensive side, they bring in slot receiver Eugene Lewis, who becomes the highest paid non-QB in the CFL. He has been known for his ability to go get balls, and make bad passes look good. This is great news for dual threat QB Taylor Cornelius, who has the ability to beat teams with his arm and his feet. He had two very good games vs Saskatchewan last year, throwing for a combined 446 yards, running for 179 yards and scoring 3 total touchdowns. I think the Elks rise up and get their first home win in a long time on Sunday night, making it my best bet of the weekend. I will lay the 2 points with Edmonton for 1 unit.
Viktor Hovland wins the Memorial Tournament outdueling Denny McCarthy in a playoff! It was nice to see him grab a win after struggling Sunday at the PGA Championship. Hovland now has two wins on Tour this season which matches his total from last year. As if we haven’t heard enough great stories about him, he caddied for one of his college teammates less than 24 hours following his win at Muirfield at one of the U.S. Open qualifiers.
We now head to Oakdale Golf & Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Let’s start with arguably the biggest news in the history of professional golf with the new merger between the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour. I won’t get into it during this article but expect something later in the week when we hopefully have some more details.
Rory McIlroy will look to become the first golfer to win the RBC Canadian Open three straight times. The last time a golfer won an event on the PGA Tour three times in a row was Steve Stricker from 1009-11 at the John Deere Classic. So far this season Viktor Hovland (WWT Championship), Sam Burns (Valspar Championship), and KH Lee (AT&T Byron Nelson) have all tried to accomplish this feat but fell short.
Ludvig Aberg will make his PGA Tour debut this week after finishing as the No.1 player in the final 2023 PGA TOUR University Ranking. He’s been ranked as the No.1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking since March and has earned his Tour card for the remainder of this season and next. He’s won several awards including the Jack Nicklaus Award, the Fred Haskins Award, and two Ben Hogan Awards. Aberg is the only player to have won the Ben Hogan Award in back-to-back years outside of Jon Rham.
Michael Block is also in the field this week after earning an exemption from his performance at the PGA Championship. He recently played in Charles Schwab Challenge where he missed the cut. Block also tried to qualify for the U.S. Open next week at Lambton Golf & Country Club on Monday where he came up short.
This is the first time that the RBC Canadian Open will be held at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. Ian Andrew renovated the course in 2018 restoring the course to its previous conditions while adding several new tee boxes as well. In addition to playing host to this year’s event, the RBC Canadian Open will also be held here in 2026.
The 123rd U.S. Open also takes place next week at Los Angeles Country Club. Several big-name players have elected to skip this event in preparation for that. This will also be the first time that the U.S. Open is held at this course.
The RBC Canadian Open was on hold during the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to the pandemic. However, it returned last year at St. George’s Golf and Country Club where Rory McIlroy captured his second title.
The Canadian Open was first played 118 years ago, in 1904. It is the third oldest continuously running tournament on the PGA Tour.
Oakdale Country Club will host the RBC Canadian Open for the first time. The club was founded in 1926 and hired Stanley Thompson to design the first nine holes. A few years later, he would complete an additional nine holes. In 1957, Stanley Thompson designed the final nine holes on the property. Most recently in 2018, Ian Andrew completed a renovation restoring the course to Thompson’s vision while making several other necessary changes.
72-Hole Record:
258, Rory McIlroy (2019)
18-Hole Record:
60, Carl Pettersson (3rd round, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC), Justin Rose (4th round, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Oakdale Country Club should be one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. While we don’t know a ton about this course, the past few winners of the RBC Canadian Open have had scores around -20. I would expect that trend to continue this week placing a premium on birdies. The course setup is a little untraditional as the layout for this week is comprised of three nine-hole courses (Thompson, Homenuik, & Knudson).
In terms of length, Oakdale Country Club is one of the shorter courses on Tour measuring 7,264 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in length. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 59 bunkers which ranks as the 11th fewest out of 46 courses.
The three Par 3’s, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 14, range between 172 yards and 208 yards.
Five of the twelve Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 354 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 489 yards. None of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards.
The three Par 5’s are No. 7, No. 12, & No. 18.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass / Poa Annua)
Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 (x5)
Birdies or Better
Driving Accuracy
3-Putt Avoidance
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players competing in this year’s RBC Canadian Open. Five of the world’s top-twenty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Rory McIlroy (+450) is the two-time defending champion of the RBC Canadian Open. He’s coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship. In his ten starts on the PGA Tour this season he has only won once which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina.
Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) missed the cut in his debut at the RBC Canadian Open last year. He’s been playing some great golf this year having only missed the cut once which was at the Valero Texas Open. Since that event, he has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last five starts on Tour. During that span, his best finish was at the Wells Fargo Championship (T3).
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) will make his third appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He missed the cut in his debut (2016) but finished tied for tenth last year. Fitzpatrick won his second PGA Tour event earlier this season outdueling Jordan Spieth in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. After a missed cut at the PGA Championship, he rebounded nicely in his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament finishing T9.
Cameron Young (+1400) comes into the RBC Canadian Open struggling having missed the cut in each of his last two starts. His putting was mainly to blame as it was atrocious in both events. Outside of that, Young has been close to his first career PGA Tour victory finishing second at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Event and third at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his first time playing in the RBC Canadian Open.
Sam Burns (+1400) finished tied for fourth in his RBC Canadian Open debut last year. After missing back-to-back cuts at the Wells Fargo Championship and PGA Championship, Burns has been playing better as of late. In his most recent start, he finished T16 at the Memorial Tournament. Prior to that, he finished T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19), Brandt Snedeker (’13), Scott Piercy (’12), Sean O’Hair (’11)
Canadians in the Field:
Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson, Mike Weir, Ben Silverman, Aaron Cockerill, Wil Bateman, Myles Creighton, Taylor Durham, Michael Gligic, David Hearn, Daniel Kim. Stuart Macdonald, Drew Nesbitt, Etienne Papineau, Roger Sloan, Sebastian Szirmak, Johnny Travale
Notable Withdraws:
Troy Merritt, Anders Albertson, Dylan Frittelli, Stephan Jaeger, Philip Knowles, Davis Riley, Byeong Hun An, Sam Stevens, Luke List, Zac Blair, Ben Griffin, Charley Hoffman, Davis Thompson, Joseph Bramlett
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]
Rory McIlroy: 1/ 1
Shane Lowry: MC/ T12 / T2 / T10
Hank Lebioda: T14/ T28
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]
Sunghoon Kang: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Brice Garnett: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Derek Lamely: MC/ MC
Joseph Bramlett: MC/ MC
Martin Trainer: MC/ MC
Cameron Champ: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19) at St. George’s Golf and Country Club
Price: 10-1
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22) at Hamilton Golf and Country Club
Price: 10-1
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
Price: 7-1
2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
Price: 125-1
2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
Price: 125-1
Picks (Outrights):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Sam Burns (+1400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sahith Theegala (+115) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Eric Cole (+220) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the RBC Canadian Open: 3.16 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Been a while since I have released a FREEPLAY baseball article. Why not do it in a game I have a strong opinion on! I’m personally unloading on this game, with multiple plays.
If you would like to receive all of my Premium Plays head to theoddsbreakers website OR shoot me a direct message on Twitter @TrustRocco.
Be sure to follow along and listen to my weekly Podcast, Rocco’s SPORTS Mission. I promise you will be entertained, you get to hear all of my different angles and possibly unpopular takes on a few different sports.
Dodgers -1 (BetMGM -147) risking 2.21u to win 1.5u
If there is no -1 offered, bet the ML at -175: risk 1.4u to win 0.8u AND bet the RL at -115: risk 0.8u to win 0.7u.
The Dodgers cannot get out of ‘dodge’ fast enough, the Yankees held a blueprint on how to STOP this LA hitting brigade. As I have said in the past, new series, new team, different outcome. Now they get to face a franchise they have been very successful in the past, winning 5 straight in Cincinnati and winning 37 of their last 53 vs the Reds. Yes, I know who cares about trends from years ago? Normally I don’t, but when you have that much success vs one franchise there is usually a reason for it. Let’s also take into consideration the Dodgers have lost two straight games and they look lost at the plate. Tonight they face a righty who many of these hitters have had tons of success vs in the past, Luke Weaver. LA is 18-7 SU off of a loss with a +2 run differential averaging 6.32 runs per game. Weaver has struggled at Great American Ball Park with a 5.64 ERA, while giving up 7 home runs in 4 starts. The Dodgers counter with Tony Gonsolin, IMO one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He started the season on the IL, but picked up where he left his 2022 campaign before getting hurt, with 7 EXCELLENT starts this year. Sporting a 1.77 ERA so far in 2023, with an opponent batting average at a gaudy .151! With RISP hitting .095.
DraftKings(DK) will be my litmus test for reviews. One of the more prominent and available in most legal states.
Why would you use a sportsbook?
Simple answer is ease. this is the most “legal” way to gamble (barring you are using a licensed book in your state). There is extreme convience to using a mobile app as opposed to going to a cash counter, anywhere anytime.
What is the advantage to DraftKings?
If you are looking for a line and DK doesn’t offer it, you will likely never find that line. To me this is by far their biggest advantage just the sheer volume of bets you can place.
DK is available in 21 states. (26 states have legal mobile gambling) Unlike some of the the competition, Draft Kings does not require a state specific book app. Some books force you to have a different version of their app by each state it is in. That is incredibly annoying, if you are like me and already have limited space on your phone.
I don’t have stats to back this up, but I feel like DK is constantly getting some of the better lines.
The interface, search functions and just ease of use is top tier books.
What is the disadvantage to DraftKings?
As most books, it’s the fee. It does suck to pay a fee every time I place a wager. If you are in one of the 5 states that draft kings is not available, I’m sorry.
Because they are such a large company, they don’t give out great sign up bonuses anymore.
Some books gave out huge sign up bonuses, or promos like a free jersey.
Because DK already has such a good base of users, bonuses are just meh now.
If you are quality “bettor” they will limit your stakes quick. But most books will.
Why use a mobile sportsbook? You don’t have to be at a physical sportsbook to place bets. You can live bet. It is more than anything the ease.
Also some physical books will limit your payouts. So if you like betting lotto ticket parlays, the mobile books usually allow a larger maximum payout. (I was in Vegas for the weekend with some friends. Bet MGM in the Mirage limited our total payout to $24,999. I usually don’t see DK limiting bettors on lotto parlays until the odds reach +20,000 range.
What lines do they offer? Every line you could possibly want is likely listed on DK.
What makes DraftKings different from other exchanges?
Volume of bets that can be placed. I can’t say for certain, but I tend to think i see better lines when shopping at DK. Only taking a mental note of that and not actually tracking which one does.
Is there an App? Yes, and it’s arguably my favorite interface. But that is all a personal preference.
Is it safe?
Yes, they have all the same safety regulations that any book will offer. They also have the dual verification logins.
Rating – 1= This book should fold immediately and never attempt to offer lines again
10= nothing needs changed, this is the only book anyone needs 8.5
DraftKings in my opinion is the top book/app. In terms of simplicity, volume of bets, ease of use, and availability, its right there with the best of them if not the benchmark book.
Because it is not in every state(that it is legal) and the bonuses are mediocre, it gets a small 0.25 knock. I’ll give it another point knock for lines being cheesy sometimes and they push incredibly ridiculous Same Game Parlays or bets onto the user. I’ll knock it another 0.25 for it not always having the best lines.
You can’t do everything right. DK however does a lot right. These are based off my experience, if you have other opinions about them let me know at @freecheekid over on twitter.
Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals takes place tonight between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
If you’re looking for a more in-depth Game 2 breakdown check out the Expected Bets For Podcast!
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Vegas Golden Knights (-140) – DraftKings
Adin Hill over 29.5 Saves (-120) – Caesars [2 Units]
After losing the first game of the series, I expect the Florida Panthers to come out firing tonight. In the first game of the series, they had 35 shots. Through their first seventeen games of the playoffs, the Panthers average 31.9 Shots on Goal per game. On the road, that number jumps up to 33.9. Vegas has also allowed the fourth most shots on goal against per game this postseason averaging 32.5.
Ivan Barbahsev is on the top line for Vegas with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. That line has been great for the Golden Knights and currently ranks number one in terms of expected goals for (xGoals For) with 9.4 throughout the playoffs. Barbashev has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. His ice time has also been increasing as the playoffs have gone on. While he isn’t on the first Power Play Unit for Vegas, he is on the second which should see some action tonight as Florida has multiple penalties in five of their last six games. If you’re looking for some value tonight, I think Barbashev is worth a look given his other linemates’ odds to record over half a point are -160 (Marchessault) and -210 (Eichel). In the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals, Barbashev had one assist.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
