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Let’s build off our monster 5 unit CRUSH yesterday!
Bonus Play(s):
SDSU vs Creighton -2.5 (O/U 135) 2:20pm ET
Under 135 (Caesars -110) 1.2 units
SDSU ML (WynnBet +130) 0.5 unit
Correlated Parlay: SDSU +2.5/ Under 135 (FanDuel +260) 0.4 unit
Miami FL vs Texas -3.5 (O/U 148) 5:05pm ET
ESPY award winner Rodney Terry, OK it hasn’t happened yet, but one would assume it has to be a strong possibility of those words being uttered July 12th at the awards ceremony. He came in mid season through drama, crisis and a sputtering team. Most assumed what would happen next, but he had other plans. Get better each and every day, improve the players, and make a big run in March. All boxes have been checked off so far, but making the Final Four was probably a pipe dream in early January. Now it’s more than that, they are the favorites to win today and a realistic chance of cutting down the nets. Now beating Miami will be no easy task, but can most certainly be achievable. Having Disu back in the line-up will certainly help their chances, and I’m gambling that he plays!
For starters their back in Kansas City, MO where they won the Big 12 championship just weeks ago, and let’s be honest it will be more of a home game atmosphere due to the location. The Horns have rolled recently, shooting almost 50% in their L5, while averaging 14.2 assists in that span. A category the Hurricanes struggle with, giving up 14.4 assists per game. As well as going 7-1 ATS in their last 8. You have to go back to February 25th vs Baylor the last time Texas failed to cover. Committing 15 turnovers in that contest, a category they have drastically improved in recently. Yes, with their style of play, committing turnovers is what you give up, but they have found a way to keep that number down. Averaging only 9.5 in their last 8. With the Hurricanes not getting any extra possessions it will be hard to keep up the offensive production they have shown so far.
Texas is a completely different animal than Houston, they play a disruptive type of defense, they get after loose balls and don’t stand around. AE: they’re not lazy like Houston. Only giving up 24 FG’s per contest in their L5, 6 made three’s per game at 31%, 8.8 assists, and as well as staying disciplined and not sending opponents to the charity strike. At 10.6 per game.
Who would have thought that Alabama would get bounced by a Mountain West team? Well, maybe a few of us did, but now it’s time to ask why! Basically, Alabama played their worst game from an efficiency standpoint all year. Bama only went 3-27 from deep and they even won the rebounding battle 52-48. The Tide couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. Now in staying that, it doesn’t make San Diego State a bad team. It just makes them a little fortunate to be here. Creighton on the other hand is quite fortunate getting to play a 15 seed in the sweet 16. This is going to be a fascinating matchup of basically the Creighton offense vs the San Diego State defense, but something is a little different this year with the Blue Jays. They now play good DEFENSE! Creighton ranks number 14th on kenpom in defensive efficiency and 11th in defensive rebounding. Their offense ranks 21st in efficiency and 24th in effective FG%. The Aztecs, while having a great defense ranking 4th in efficiency, only ranks 70th on the offensive side of the ball and 212th in effective FG%. Something has to give right? If you look at the pure numbers, there are no real matchup advantages on either side of the ball, but what I will say is that free throws might play a big part here along with shooting. If the Aztecs get in trouble here, they may not be able to get back in this game. I am taking the Blue Jays to win a close game.
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Milwaukee at Denver -3 (237) 9:00pm ET
You have to go back to January 21st at Cleveland for Milwaukee to be ‘underdogs’ entering a game. Now I’m sure in their minds, they’re the best team in every game. I mean who could blame them all they seem to do is win, but have they as dogs? The short answer is no, they are a dreadful 3-9 ATS as dogs, and I don’t see heading to the mile high state will help boost that record at all. The Bucks will be playing their 8th away game in their last 12, and 2nd back to back in less than two weeks. Again their confidence is soaring, but I have to ask, are they playing as well as it seems? I mean they’re scoring points in massive bunches vs Indiana, Toronto, Utah, Sacramento. Does that translate to, in Denver? No. Playing at Ball Arena is no easy task, where Denver is 30-6 SU and 23-13 ATS.
Then again the Nuggets have stumbled since the break, losing 6 of 14 games, and arguably have lost that ‘best team’ status. Combine that with Milwaukee’s record of 10-1 ATS on zero days rest, some would say how could you back Denver? For me, very easily. The perfect spot to show the basketball world, were still the big dogs and the team to beat. Which lands me on Denver here laying the points.
Today Dillon @Dilbertospicks joins Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev to talk some sweet 16 and Saturday’s elite 8 games with some FREE PLAYS!
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Milwaukee at Utah +9.5 (O/U 236.5) 9:00pm ET
No Lauri, no Clarkson, no turnovers? A category they have been flat out bad, this Utah team will shoot 50+% from the field and get buried. Why, well lack of possessions due to TO’s. The rest of these guys have started to gel and realized when we play like a team, this game is much easier. Only committing 13 a game in their L5. Hence wins vs quality teams such as Sacramento and Boston. Now the deer are a different animal yes, but I believe this is the perfect spot for Milwaukee to have a let down. Playing without Middleton will definitely hurt as well. Coming off two comfortable wins vs bottom feeder San Antonio, and defenseless Toronto. How do you beat Milwaukee, SCORE. Yes I know, obviously, but they have had trouble putting teams away due to the defensive end. Certainly not offensive, because they just keep coming. Utah has the ability to score at a high rate, and because of this I think they’re a great bet tonight. Oh and being 10-1 ATS as home dogs doesn’t hurt as well, playing the dog role seems to be their specialty. Sporting a 22-6-1 ATS record as 3-12 point underdogs. Let’s sprinkle in some lunch money on the ML as well.
Jazz +9.5 (bet365 -110) 1.5 units
Jazz ML (DraftKings +320) 0.2 unit
Phoenix at Sacramento -3.5 (O/U 239) 10:00pm ET
Yes the Kings got two days to rest at home, was it enough to get back to how they were playing before? I don’t believe so. Playing their 6th game in 10 days, completing two back to backs, four of them on the road and in 3 different time zones. The Kings have shown time and time again playing against inferior competition is their specialty, going 22-12 ATS vs teams under .500. Above .500 they’re not so hot. Problem is Phoenix has been straight up BAD since KD went down with an ankle injury, going 1-5 SU in their L6. Losing by 9 points or more in 4 of them. Giving up 51% shooting and 38% from downtown in their L5. With the Kings averaging almost 18 made three pointers in their L5, is not a good combination. With Ayton out again forcing the Suns to go small and force Chris Paul to pick up the pace. Combined with Sacramento who ranks 1st in pace, I think this will be an up and down the court kind of game.
Over 239 (FanDuel -110) 1.1 units
Let’s move on to my best bet, the Thunder on a back to back. Am I nuts?
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (O/U 230.5) 10:00pm ET
Believe it or not, they have a very good record on a back to back with SHAI PLAYING. The Thunder are 4-2-1 ATS on back to backs, and 4-1 ATS with Shai in the line-up. Four outright wins as dogs of 3 1/2, 4 and 11 points. This is an up and coming team with a bright future. Going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall, and seem to thrive off of a loss. Being 22-13-1 ATS on the season. Are the Lakers playing good ball currently? Absolutely. Unfortunately I think that’s the problem. As soon as the media and sports world say good things about the purple and gold, they become complacent. Playing complacent vs in my opinion the hardest working, dig-deep, out-hustle you for the loose balls team in the NBA is a scary combo! The Lakers give up almost 94 field goal attempts per game, and commit 14 turnovers a game, which plays right into OKC’s hands. I’m all over the Thunder tonight with the points, and will sprinkle in a little ML.
Thunder +5.5 (FanDuel -108) 2.2 units
Thunder ML (FanDuel +184) 0.45 unit
BONUS PLAY: Miami FL ML (DraftKings +290) 0.4 unit 7:15pm ET
I think there is some value in this game on the ML, the Hurricanes have the talent and experience to beat Houston. With Omier back in the line-up and officially healthy, they can go head to head with the Cougars and potentially pull the upset! So I will make a small play on this game.
Fantastic night yesterday as we went 5-0 on plays. We only have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
New York Islanders @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Time: 7:00 PM ET
New York Islanders: 37-27-8, 4th Metropolitan (16-15-5 Away)
Columbus Blue Jackets: 22-42-7, 8th Metropolitan (13-20-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New York Islanders
-195
-240
-1.5 (+110)
o6.5 (+100)
Columbus Blue Jackets
+165
+200
+1.5 (-130)
u6.5 (-120)
There are only three matchups tonight, so I figured I’d take the one that means something to both teams. The Islanders are in the middle of a playoff race right now while the Blue Jackets are amid the Bedard Sweepstakes. New York currently holds the first wild card spot in the Eastern Division. They’ve underperformed all season but after the acquisition of Bo Horvat, they’ve started to go on a run. New York’s 7-2-1 in their last ten games behind some stellar goaltending from Ilya Sorokin. Despite adding Johnny Hockey, the Blue Jackets have been awful this season and sit at the bottom of the league. They do have some talent, but their smartest move right now is to lose out and give themselves the best chance at acquiring a generational talent in Connor Bedard.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
New York Islanders team total over 3.5 (Inc. OT & Shootout) (-132) – Barstool
New York Islanders/ Columbus Blue Jackets over 6.0 (-127) – Barstool
The Islanders come into this game off a great 7-2 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders as of late averaging 5.67 goals for in their last three games. Despite the absence of Matt Barzal, the Islanders have found ways to generate offense. Columbus has been horrendous defensively allowing at least four goals in their last five games. On the other hand, Columbus has shown signs of like up front scoring 7-2-4 in their last three games. Michael Hutchinson will get the start for them tonight who has a -2.7 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) in his six games. In his last two start’s he’s allowed at least four goals. I’m expecting the Islanders to carry the load in terms of goals tonight. New York’s also been worse defensively on the road so if we can get 2 from Columbus, I think this game should go over the total.
Player Props to Target:
[General Note, Nathan MacKinnon has been bumped to 5.5 shots on goal tonight from 4.5 which he’s been set at the entire season. Just a heads up for the people.]
Jean-Gabriel Pageau over 0.5 Points (+112) – FanDuel
Jean-Gabriel Pageau has gone over this number in each of his last four games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last three. In his six previous matchups against the Blue Jackets, Pageau has recorded over 0.5 points five times.
Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-130) – PointsBet
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 8.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last two. The Coyotes rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.64. On the road, that number drops slightly to 34.37. Arizona has also given up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his four previous matchups against the Coyotes, Rantanen has gone over this number three times.
Bo Horvat over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – BetRivers
Bo Horvat has gone over this number in eight of his last ten games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of his last ten. The Blue Jackets rank 30th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.24. At home, that number drops slightly to 34.60. Columbus has also given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We went 3-1 in my previous article breaking down the West in the Round of 64, unfortunately the over misses by a few points from an undefeated article. Now let’s break down the two Sweet 16 match-ups in the West.
8 Arkansas vs 4 UConn -3.5 (O/U 140) 7:15pm ET
First we have one of the most intriguing match-ups of the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks vs the Huskies, a battle of two squads with very high ceilings. Arkansas clawed their way back to a victory taking down the defending champs, then Coach Musselman took off his shirt. No really, he did, he then went on to jump on the scorers table hyping up the crowd in a bizarre scene. Do they have enough to get back to the Elite 8? In my opinion, UConn has just a little too much fire power. Now the Arkansas defense has been better in the tournament, but enough to stifle the Huskies for 40 minutes, that will be difficult. I believe it can be done though, which is why I’m not taking a side in this game. The Huskies turn the ball over a little too much for my liking, at 12.4 a game in their L5. UConn has gotten off to slow starts in both tournament games, combined with Arkansas being a 2nd half team, puts me on the under in the first half.
Play: 1H: under 64.5 (BetRivers -110) 0.9 unit
BonusPlay: IF UConn is down at halftime, take them in the 2nd Half.*ONLY IF THEY ARE LOSING* 0.7 unit
3 Gonzaga vs 2 UCLA -1 (O/U 145) 9:45pm ET
Drew Timme and offensive minded Gonzaga, take on defensive minded UCLA. The question is, who will get the best of who? I believe the Bruins smothering defense will be too much for Mark Few and the Zags. Injuries have definitively made the public question this defense, and rightly so, but the next man up mentality has been bought into from these guys since the start. Bona and Singleton are questionable, but on track to play. I believe both got the necessary treatments during the days off to get on the court. This UCLA defense has given up an average of 20 field goals a game in their L4. Will they hold Gonzaga to that low of a total, I would assume not, but it will be a number the Zags are not accustomed too. A big bonus for UCLA, the Zags rank at the bottom in many defensive categories. So if UCLA can shoot at a high %, look out! They have played two games where they have seen the ball go through quite often at 50 and 54% in those two games. Some of these Bruins have done this before and have not forgotten what happened two years ago, when Suggs hit the buzzer beater to knock UCLA out of the tournament. Well revenge is sweet, and has been on the Bruins mind all week!
I know many fans out there are hoping for fireworks tonight and a buzzer beater to drop the fans jaws. I don’t believe we will see this, I think UCLA will beat them comfortably. They will absolutely slow this game down, limiting the Zags possessions, committing very few turnovers and getting back on D.
These teams matched up two nights ago at Madison Square Garden where the Hurricanes (+106) defeated the Rangers 3-2 (O/U:6.0). That narrow loss ended the Rangers four game winning streak. Carolina has now won back-to-back games and holds a narrow lead in the Metropolitan Division over the Devils. New York’s in comfortable third place in that same division but can help their rivals gain some ground tonight with a win.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Toronto Maple Leafs: 42-19-9, 2nd Atlantic (17-12-4 Away)
Toronto is coming off a brutal 7-1 loss against the New York Islanders. Before that, they rattled off two wins against the Senators and Hurricanes. The Leafs are currently 2nd place in the Atlantic Division with a three-point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they do have two games in hand. Florida’s currently in a wild-card playoff battle with the Islanders and Penguins. They’ve been on a hot streak as of late going 7-2-1 in their last ten but need to keep pace if they hope to see the postseason. In their previous matchup this season, the Leafs (-161) defeated the Panthers 5-4 (O/U:6.5) in OT.
Nashville Predators: 35-26-8, 5th Central (17-12-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Seattle Kraken
-135
-135
-1.5 (+185)
o6.5 (+100)
Nashville Predators
+115
+115
+1.5 (-215)
u6.5 (-120)
The Seattle Kraken control their playoff destiny as they currently sit in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games after losing their three previous games before that. Nashville has made a playoff push despite a depleted roster and selling some of their talent at the deadline. The Predators are four points out of the second wild-card spot with three games in hand on the Jets. They ended their three-game losing streak against the Sabres on Tuesday night and are hoping to ride that momentum into tonight’s game. In their only matchup this season, the Kraken (-112) defeated the Predators 5-1 (O/U:6.5).
The Penguins stopped their four-game skid with a massive 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche last night. They have another tough matchup tonight and haven’t done well on no rest this season with a 4-7-2 record. As of now, they currently hold the second wild card spot in the East. The Dallas Stars are currently tied for first in the Central Division with the Minnesota Wild. They’ve been in a bit of a slump lately losing three of their last four games. Part of the reason for that decline has been Jake Oettinger who’s allowed five goals in each of his last two starts. In their only matchup this season, the Penguins (-124) defeated the Stars 5-1 (O/U:6.5).
Vegas Golden Knights @ Calgary Flames
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Vegas Golden Knights: 44-21-6, 1st Pacific (22-7-5 Away)
Vegas holds a narrow lead in the Pacific Division over the Los Angeles Kings. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late winning eight of their last ten games. However, one of their losses during that span was to Calgary (-113) where they lost 7-2 (O/U:6.0). The Flames have been a disappointment this season and find themselves on the outside looking in. They’re four points out of a playoff spot with ten games remaining. If they want to have any shot, they need to hope for Winnipeg to have a meltdown.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Boston Bruins 1st Period -0.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Historically, the Bruins have dominated the Canadiens winning each of their last eight matchups. However, the Bruins’ moneyline and puckline are unplayable tonight so I had to get creative to find ways to back them. In the last ten games, the Bruins have averaged 1.10 GF/G and 0.60 GA/G. On the other hand, the Canadiens have averaged 1.60 GF/G and 2.10 GA/G in the last ten games. At home, the Bruins have covered this line in six of their last ten games. On the road, the Canadiens have been leading after the first in just three of their last ten games. Earlier this season, they were tied after the first period, but I think the Bruins have a little extra spark tonight. The Bruins also have a significant advantage in net tonight given the goaltender matchup of Allen vs Swayman. Jake Allen faced Colorado in his last start where he allowed six goals on fifteen shot attempts. He’ll face another high-powered offense tonight where I’m expecting a similar result.
Tampa Bay Lightning/ Ottawa Senators over 6.5 (-130) – Caesars
Tampa Bay is coming off a terrible loss against the Canadiens on Tuesday night where they only scored twice. They’ve shown that they have the ability to rebound, and I fully expect them to do so tonight. Ottawa’s offense has been stagnant in their last two games, but I expect that to change tonight as well. They’ve been much better at home this season, averaging 3.54 GF/G compared to 2.64 GF/G on the road. Tampa has also been worse defensively on the road this season averaging 3.34 GA/G compared to 2.76 GA/G at home. The goaltending matchup is also advantageous for the total as well. Brian Elliot has been confirmed as the starter for Tampa Bay which has caused the line to swing in Ottawa’s favor. While he hasn’t been awful with a -1.0 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) this season, he has historically struggled against the Senators. In each of his last two matchups against them, he’s allowed at least three goals. Mads Sogaard will get the nod for Ottawa who has a -2.2 GSAx in thirteen starts. In his last seven starts, he’s allowed at least four goals.
Chicago Blackhawks / Washington Capitals over 6.0 (-120) – Caesars
Anton Khudobin will get his first start for Chicago after being acquired from the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline. Khudobin was 3-4-1 with a 3.64 GAA and .879 save percentage before being demoted to the minors. Opposite of him, will be Darcy Kuemper who’s been in a sump allowing four goals in each of his last two starts. Washington has been horrendous defensively allowing at least five goals in each of their last three games. While Chicago, has been great up front, they should be able to get a few past Kuemper tonight. I’m expecting Washington to carry the load in terms of goals tonight. As I mentioned before, they’ve been poor defensively but have been solid offensively. I expect this to be a sloppy game tonight especially given the goaltending which is why I can see this going over the total.
Vancouver Canucks Team Total over 3.5 (-135) – DraftKings
Vancouver Canucks in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Despite a whirlwind season, the Canucks have found some energy and have won seven of their last ten games. During that span, they have only scored over 3.5 goals four times. However, they face a familiar opponent and goaltender that they’ve had success against in the past. James Reimer will get the start for the San Jose Sharks tonight. He has allowed at least four goals against in three of his last five starts. In his previous two starts against the Canucks, he has allowed 5/6 goals. The Sharks are an absolute trainwreck losing nine of their last ten games. During that span, they’ve allowed at least four goals in eight of those matchups. In their three previous matchups against the Canucks this season, they’ve allowed at least four goals in each of those games. Vancouver has shown some signs of life towards the end of the season despite a season to forget. San Jose on the other hand, looks lifeless in their recent games excluding Edmonton. I like Vancouver to roll tonight, especially with Demko in net.
Player Props to Target:
Dylan Strome over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
Dylan Strome has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five as well. In his previous matchup against the Blackhawks, Strome recorded over 0.5 points. This is also a revenge angle as Strome played for the Chicago Blackhawks from 2018-2022.
Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 Points (+140) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
Aleksander Barkov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in each of his last three. In each of his three previous matchups against the Maple Leafs, Barkov recorded over 1.5 points.
Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
Kevin Hayes has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 4.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Wild rank 12th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.73. On the road, that number increases to 31.80. Minnesota has also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games. In his previous matchup against the Wild, Hayes had three shots on goal in seven attempts.
David Pastrnak over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – DraftKings
David Pastrnak has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 8.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last three. The Canadiens rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.08. On the road, that number increases to 35.94. Montreal has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his previous matchup against the Canadiens this season, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal in fifteen attempts.
J.T. Miller over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – BetRivers
J.T. Miller has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Sharks rank 22nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.90. On the road, that number increases to 32.89. San Jose has also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season. In his previous matchup against the Sharks this season, Miller had three shots on goal in four attempts.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Well I was correct. I had the most interesting region in the tournament to preview. Madness was prevalent as we saw #16 Seed Fairleigh Dickinson upset #1 seed Purdue marking only the second time it has happened since the field expanded. #9 Florida Atlantic beat #8 Memphis and then knocked off FDU to get to the Sweet sixteen. Rick Barnes led #4 Tennessee couldn’t cover my Free Play against #13 Louisiana, but they won and then held #5 Duke to 52 points in the Round of 32. The bottom half of the bracket saw #3 Kansas State advancing to the Sweet Sixteen with wins over#14 Montana St. and #6 Kentucky. And finally in what hurt my bracket the most #7 Michigan State handled #10 USC and then upset #2 Marquette to advance to the round of 16.
The East Region will be determined on Thursday and Saturday in New York City at Madison Square Garden.
#3 Kansas State vs #7 Michigan State 5:30 PM CT (MSU-1.5 O/U 138)
The Spartans logged two very good defensive efforts to get to this point especially against Marquette where they held the #6 Offense in the land to just 60 points. They will need to slow the pace again against a KSU offense that runs even faster than MU. Michigan State will hope to stay hot from behind the arc as they are the sixth best 3 point shooting team in the country. KSU is the 15th best defending it however so it’s possible MSU does the same formula it did against Marquette and looks to transition baskets and their inside game. KSU will likely look to get out in run as said above, but if that doesn’t work they actually played better when they slowed things down against grinding defensive teams like Iowa State. I’m waiting to pull the trigger on this one cause it just seems like this is one of those magical Izzo runs in the making, but Fun Fact…after beating Marquette, Michigan State is 10-0 when holding teams to 60 points or fewer, and 11-12 when it doesn’t. Wanna guess how many times this year Kansas State has scored less than 60? Once in a 55-50 win against Wichita State. Heavy Lean and likely small play coming from me on Kansas State ML.
The FAU Owls have 33 wins on the docket now and are top 33 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While they certainly haven’t been tested to the extent of Tennessee they have still shown they can ball. They have a very deep bench and use it frequently. They also have some solid size inside to try to compete and bang with the Volunteers….Good luck. Tennessee is the top defensive team in the nation and the Owls only put up 65 against a Memphis team that wanted to run and imploded late. What Tennessee did to Duke with all the momentum they had and the size and talent on that offense gave me pause. The Vols are going to be physical and out-muscle the Owls. Against other SEC teams this year the Owls got heavily out-rebounded. Tennessee has also held opponents under 60 points 6 out of their last 9 games. I can’t believe I am getting behind Rick Barnes for the second time this tournament, but I think this is a horrible match-up for FAU and I got it at 4.5. I had it as 70-62 so I’m still in on Tennessee at -5.5 for 1.5 Units. Don’t Mess it up Rick.
If you look at the pure numbers, there are no real matchup advantages on either side of the ball, but what I will say is that free throws might play a big part here along with shooting. If the Aztecs get in trouble here, they may not be able to get back in this game. I am taking the Blue Jays to win a close game.
