I’m not a huge believer in Pitt’s chances when the calendar turns to March, but it’s not going to matter in this matchup. Pitt matches up perfectly facing Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, and I think the Panthers hold a sneaky defensive edge in this matchup as well. This is Syracuse’s second straight road game, while Pitt will enjoy their second straight game in their friendly confines.
Pitt attempts the 25th most 3’s per game in CBB and makes them at an efficient 35.7% clip. I’ve backed Syracuse in matchups where teams can’t take advantage of their zone style(such as UNC and NC State), but as Clemson showed the other day, good shooting teams will eat up this defense. Pitt put up 84 at Syracuse earlier in the year, and I expect a similar result in this one.
Syracuse is an efficient outside shooting team, but they shoot 3’s at a bottom 30 rate in the country. Their 2pt offense is incredibly mediocre(158th in 2pt FG%), and this is a matchup where I think their lack of aggressiveness will bite them. Pitt blocks 4.5 shots per game and ranks 62nd in 2pt defense, and they defend the 3 quite well also.
As an added bonus, it doesn’t hurt backing a Pitt team over the full game that shoots nearly 77% from the foul line. I think Pitt has another efficient shooting day against ‘Cuse and wins this game by double-digits(and then we can sell high on them).
Revenge is a dish best served Cold. Gonzaga is having an off year certainly by their standards, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t win the West Coast Conference Title and revenging their overtime loss at Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs have one big weakness, and that is playing defense only ranking 87th in adjusted efficiency, but in the past, their offense has always made up for it ranking 1st in adjusted efficiency with a fast pace of play, and 2nd in effective FG%. They are ok at rebounding the ball and could use a little work at the charity stripe ranking 245th. Saint Mary’s is the complete opposite. The Gaels rank 7th in defensive efficiency, play slow, and 80th in effective FG%. Saint Mary’s rebounds the ball pretty well, but they also can’t shoot free throws ranking 263rd in percentage, and they don’t seem to block many shots. The big thing here for me is strength of schedule. The Best team that Saint Mary’s has beaten was Gonzaga in overtime at home. They lost when stepping up to Houston, New Mexico, and three lower class teams. Gonzaga on the other hand has some good wins vs Michigan State, Kentucky, Xavier, and Alabama. with just one bad loss to Loyola Marymount whom also got the Gaels I might add. This is a big spot for the Zags as they want to prove that they are the best team in the West Coast Conference while getting even with their rival.
Gonzaga -4 – 2 stars (wait for a 4 but I like it up to 5)
* If this doesn’t get back down to 5 then it is a no play. Vandy -3.5 is solid instead.
Michigan State vs Iowa -5 O/U 148
Sometimes it feels like Tom Izzo and Fran McCaffery were made for each other. Watching their heads turn bright red with anger every game before exploding into a whistle blowing Zebra turns big 10 games into reality shows. In saying that, this game isn’t hard to figure out. The Hawkeyes had two bad games in a row vs Northwestern and Wisconsin, but that’s the big 10 for you. Iowa still plays a good game on offense ranking 9th in efficiency and a decent 52.5% from two. They also do not turn the ball over ranking 8th in turnover percentage. Iowa’s defense isn’t good ranking 151st in efficiency but that won’t matter when the other team tires. Michigan State on the other hand has been playing some good ball and some good defense, but they just can’t seem to win on the road losing four of their last five road games. Sparty shoots a dismal 48.3 effective FG% away from East Lancing, while Iowa shoots 57.1% effective FG% at home. Michigan State’s weakness is defending the two ranking 148th in near proximity defense and that is where Iowa has an advantage ranking 48th. Michigan State is a great three point shooting team but can they do it on the road? At 33% no they can not. The Big 10 is 114-84 ATS at home which is a nice 57.6%. Big 10 away teams are 44-80 which is 35.4% Wow. Take the Hawkeyes
Today Kyle Hunter @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev discuss the big weekend in college hoops with some great questions and free plays! Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!
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We have a solid NBA slate tonight with 8 games on tap, I hope all of my readers are as excited as I am to get back in the full swing of things with the pros! Don’t fret, I will still have some NCAAB plays going forward. I mean we were 12-4, +7.87 units and Unit Upgrades going 3-0! How could I not?
New York at Washington -1.5 (O/U 227.5) 7:00pm Eastern Start
The Knicks in my opinion are one of the hottest teams in basketball right now, winners of 5 of 6 and 6 of 8. If you have read any of my articles, you know I’m high on them going forward. They have truly come together recently utilizing all of the talent they have. Specifically Brunson, scoring 28 points or more in his last four and averaging 31.5 points per game in his last 10. Randle has benefited with tons of open looks, shooting almost 48% from the field in his last 7 games.
Now Washington is one of the hottest offenses in the NBA, shooting 54.8% in their last 5. Winning 4 of those 5 games, but against who? Minnesota, Portland, Golden State, Indiana and Charlotte, 5 squads that don’t exactly play a lot of defense. Only two being playoff teams. The Knicks rank 4th in turnovers offensively, and Washington does not cause too many. So if the Wizards have any trouble shooting tonight, I’m not sure they can keep up with Brunson and company.
The Knicks are 6-3 ATS as short priced dogs, 19-10 ATS away and 9-5 ATS vs teams under .500. So let’s take the Knicks on the road tonight!
Knicks +1.5 (PointsBet -110) 0.75 unit
Charlotte at Minnesota -7 (O/U 240.5) 8:00pm Eastern Start
I see plenty of information pointing towards the over here, since Charlotte has gone small trading away Mason Plumlee to the Clippers they have averaged 122 points a game. Shooting a tremendous 53% in their last two from the field, while scoring 120 and 144 points. Tonight looks like they will get back Terry Rozier which will boost their outside shooting. They have used their speed to their advantage and ability to shoot the rock at a high %. Tonight they face a T’Wolves defense giving up 51.4% shooting, as well as 38.8% from 3 in their last five.
As far as Minnesota’s offense they can score and they can score FAST. With each team ranking in the top 5 as far as pace, and both teams with a high assist rate averaging over 27 and 28 assists per game in their last 5. I can see baskets scored in bunches here.
The T’Wolves have shown in the past, they tend to slow down late in the game and with the total being over 240. I’m taking the over in the first half, where lets be honest Charlotte is awful defensively. Minnesota has gone over in the 1st half 6 of their past 8 games. So let’s see some points here early!
1H: Over 123 (FanDuel -110) 1 unit
Brooklyn at Chicago -2 (O/U 222.5) 8:00pm Eastern Start
The Bulls are in absolute shreds right now, this is a team trending in the wrong direction and moving fairly quickly. Losers of 6 in a row, as well as covering in NONE of them. The answer, getting Patrick Beverley!? Huh? Sorry I don’t believe this is the answer for them going forward, and the more I hear Beverley talking to the media, the more I want to bet against them.
Ironically the Nets played 10 of 12 at home going into the week break, with their away games at New York and Boston. Travel much? These guys are well rested and poised to make a post All-Star break run. Yes I have said in the past they’re going in the wrong direction, again I was wrong! And have no trouble admitting it. Brooklyn’s new full squad of players have much more talent then I had realized, they may be 1-2 as a team in those games, but they have most definitely impressed me. Coach Vaughn harps defense, ranking in the top 10 or even top 5 in quite a few categories in their last five games. Except, turnovers. Which he said numerous times in a recent press conference, that will improve. I think it will be a joy watching these guys gel moving forward and it all starts at the United Center tonight, with a UNIT UPGRADE!
Nets +2 (DraftKings -105) 1.25 units
Nets ML +110 (DraftKings) 0.75 unit
For anyone tailing, good luck and lets keep building this bankroll!
Nebraska – They are still in the 90s on Kenpom yet playing great ball winning their last three big 10 games against tournament teams.
North Carolina – I can’t explain how bad this team has been with 0 wins vs top opponents, but they have talent and should make a run here at the end of the season.
Oregon – Dana Altman is too good a coach to have this team not motivated down the stretch. Wins vs Arizona, Nevada, USC and Villanova might be enough to get in the dance.
Sell High:
Saint Mary’s – Now ranked 8th on Kenpom. Not really impressed with their conference schedule. They will be a 19 point favorite vs Pacific Thursday Night and a 3 point dog at Gonzaga on Saturday.
San Diego State – Ranked 16th on Kenpom in a mid major conference. Not buying it so much and they have a rough patch vs New Mexico and Boise State.
Florida – They are out of the tournament and they know it. Two away gams coming up will not help their case.
I think this is a great spot to buy low on Xavier. The Musketeers have lost 3 of their last 4 games by a combined 4 points, and after seeing them lose outright to a soaring Villanova team earlier this week, the market has overreacted. Xavier checks all the “intangible” boxes it takes to win on the road, and this happens to be a favorable matchup as well.
If you can shoot the 3, you will have every chance to beat the Musketeers. Xavier ranks 306th in opponent 3pt FG%, which is why you see the likes of Butler and Villanova hanging with them. Fortunately for Xavier, this is not a matchup where that will get exploited. Seton Hall attempts the 35th fewest 3’s per game in the country and shoots just 32% from beyond the arc. Xavier’s defense stiffens up considerably in their interior, and I think they hold a clear edge over a Pirates offense that ranks just 250th in 2pt FG%.
Xavier is one of the most balanced offenses in America, and I absolutely trust them down the stretch of this game. Despite shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc(5th in CBB), Xavier remains committed to taking good shots and also excels at scoring around the rim(36th in 2pt FG%). This Seton Hall defense is no slouch defending the ball, and they will force some TO’s in this game. With that said, their overall sloppiness offensively negates whatever advantage they could’ve gained in this area.
There is a misnomer that Seton Hall is this unbelievably physical team. That’s true in certain areas, but this team is flat out weak on the boards; they rank 281st in defensive rebounding % and are very mediocre on the offensive glass as well. This is a sneaky advantage Xavier will have on both ends of the floor.
Xavier is one of the most experienced teams in CBB, which is becoming a critical factor if I’m going to back a team on the road in this sort of spot. I also feel comfortable trusting Xavier over the full game given Seton Hall hits just 68% of their FT’s(300th in CBB) and my general trust in their offense down the stretch.
We have an great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @Majorwager and @VegasInsider comes on to talk college hoops! First, Kiev talks about some promotions and our NCAA tournament challenge coming up next month! Next, Brian comes on and him and Kiev get into some current buy low and sell high college basketball teams. Finally, Brian and Kiev discuss some huge basketball games with some FREE PLAYS for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
We’ve got a Thursday Free Play tonight for everyone. I’ve been home sick with the whole family all week with everyone’s favorite virus, so every evening I’ve been able to do some serious looking in at my favorite conferences. We’ve been dominating in the Summit, Big West, Big Sky, WAC and WCC. We’re up 33.60 Units on the season with a large chunk of that profit coming on Thursday in those conferences. Currently on a 25-5 Thursday run since the New Year. This week so far we are at 7-3-1 and we will look to keep Thursdays rolling along!
My Free Play features the Utah Valley Wolverines (21-6 Overall, 12-2 WAC) traveling to Stephenville, Texas to take on the Tarleton State Texans (14-14 Overall 7-8 WAC). The Line currently sits at Utah Valley -2.5 with the Over/Under sitting at 137.
This will be the first and only meeting this season between these two clubs. Utah Valley comes in riding a six game winning streak. The Wolverines have 4 players averaging double digits in scoring and are led by Junior Guard Le’Tre Darthard at 13.9 Points Per Game. Tarleton State has dropped 4 of their last 6 contests, but they have been in every game until the end. The Texans have 2 players in double digits led by Sophomore Guard Freddy Hicks who sits at 15.7 Points Per Game.
Utah Valley will try and push the pace in this one to free up their offense and get easy baskets in transition. The actual head to head numbers when the Wolverines have the ball are very even in efficiency rating with maybe even a slight edge to the Texans. What Tarleton State will have to find a way to contend with is 7 Foot Sophomore Center Aziz Bandaogo who is averaging a double-double. Tarleton State’s biggest body goes 6’7″ so they are going to have a big size issue to deal with. Utah Valley can put 3 guys up front 6’9″ or bigger so look for them to pound the rock inside when they don’t get transition chances.
Tarleton State will have to find a way to score when they have the ball. They do two things really well on offense. Number One is take care of the ball, ranking 23rd in the country in TO%. Number 2 is getting to the line as they are #4 in the country in Free Throw Attempt Rate. That being said they struggle elsewhere offensively. They shoot 47% from inside the arc and 34.6% outside of it. They’ll need those 3 point shots to drop to keep up in this one because Utah Valley is a top 40 overall defense and is by far the best defensive unit in the WAC. They hold opponents to 31.4% from distance and only 43% inside the arc. They also have the 8th best block ratio in the country. With the Texans lack of size inside look for them to be launching from distance early and often as I think they’ll struggle to get to the line.
It’s all about that Utah Valley defense here as Tarleton has struggled to score against the other top WAC defenses putting up 58 Points per Game against the other 3 Top defenses in the WAC. I’ve got this one at 71-64. This Wolverine team can actually play. Hail To The Valley Victors!
If you enjoy my content, give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
This will be my first article featuring NCAA-B, as well as NBA. I believe we could see some odd scores after the All-Star break, giving most of these guys a much needed week off. I will still have a small NBA play tonight, as I do see some value.
NBA: New Orleans at Toronto -6 (O/U 226)
Which leads us to the Raptors, a team many thought would be sellers instead of buyers at the trade deadline. This team still believes they can win with the current product they have. Former Spur Jakob Poeltl made quite an impact in the game leading into the break, scoring 30 points, shooting 88% and grabbing 9 boards. Toronto finally got the chance to come home and get a well needed break, after surviving their gauntlet of 10 of 12 games away from home. They were able to win 3 of the 4 home games, granted it was against inferior competition, but it was just what the doctor ordered. Confidence and rest!
Now they face a Pelican team not having the season they had hoped for, losers of 10 of 17 that featured a 10 game losing streak. Yes they did get Ingram back Jan 25th, but only going 4-7 since his emergence. The Pels are 5-14 ATS their last 19 away and are 1-10 ATS their last 11 as 3.5-9 point dogs! Clearly they don’t play the underdog roll very well. New Orleans can turn the ball over quite often, ranking 23rd offensively in turnovers and have averaged 18 per game in their last 5. Unfortunately for them, they play a scrappy Raptor squad who gets after it, forcing 16.6 TO’s per game.
I think the Raptors are too deep and have too much talent for New Orleans. Their big men will do as they want down low, averaging 12.7 offensive rebounds a game. So I will lay the points with Toronto!
Raptors -6 (FanDuel -108) 0.75 unit
NCAAB: Northwestern at Illinois -6 (O/U 136)
Many would consider this a revenge spot for the Illini after losing handily against the Wildcats 6 weeks ago. I don’t look at it that way, Illinois had beaten Northwestern 8 straight times previous to this season. More or less they have owned the Cats. Northwestern knows all the narratives, they hear it before and after each game, which begs the question. Why no love for the Wildcats?
They have won 5 straight vs quality opponents, with the last 3 being against Purdue, Indiana and Iowa. Non-the-less all as underdogs, while holding teams to 59 points per game defensively during the win streak. The Cats are 6-2 ATS away, are 9-5 ATS on three days rest, are 4-1 ATS away off a win and my favorite, 7-2 ATS as dogs of 3-7 points. This just screams Northwestern to me!
I personally don’t think Illinois has the greatest resume, they have struggled against bad teams, they have some awful losses and just don’t move the ball around enough. That will be a problem vs Northwestern’s defense tonight. Speaking of defense, the Illini don’t exactly play a lot of it. Teams are shooting 45.4% from the field and 37.4% from three in their last 5 games.
So with Illinois inability to create scoring passing the ball, relying on a lot of 1 on 1’s, and Northwestern’s ability to crash the glass(7.3 offensive boards given up a game) and play stout defense. I am all over the Cats tonight, with a small UNIT UPGRADE! We will even sprinkle in a light ML play!
Northwestern +6 (DraftKings -110) 1.25 units
Northwestern ML +210 (DraftKings) 0.50 unit
For anyone tailing, good luck and lets keep building this bankroll!
Sometimes the ugliest bets are the toughest ones to make. Ohio State has lost 13 of their last 14 games and are out of post season contention. So why try? Why care? What’s the need? Quite simply, dignity, prosperity, and playing the spoiler is the three reasons. Dignity. Ohio State is playing at home, and from what I have seen, they may not be a good basketball team, but they at least try all the way until the end of the game. Kids do not like losing and the talent on this team hasn’t gotten where they were by losing. Prosperity. These kids still need to pay their bills and live out their dreams to get into a better program next year as well as have the chance to become involved in basketball in the future. Spoiler. Penn State is a clear bubble team to me, and they have some serious issues playing defense and rebounding the ball on offense. I think that Ohio State lives up to the 28th rating in offensive efficiency on Kenpom.
