Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

Al Central

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

Cleveland Guardians +120/87

Minnesota Twins +155/84.5

Chicago White Sox +210/82.5

Detroit Tigers +1800/69.5

Kansas City Royals +2300/69

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians won 87 games last year, but I felt they over achieved and the bottom of this division has improved. They did add Josh Bell in Free agency along with All or nothing catcher Mike Zunino who will mentor prospect Bo Naylor. The core of the lineup remains the same and revolves around Jose Ramirez. While he is the only top option on the team, the rest of the core is solid with Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez. Emmanuel Clase was the #2 ranked closer in 2022 and has James Karinchak to get him the ball. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie lead the staff, but the other three were all over achievers in 2022 and I expect regression from Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill and Zach Pleasac. There’s nothing special about this group, and I don’t see them as much more than a .500 team. Prediction 82-80

Minnesota Twins

The Twins were fairly active in the off-season with trades and free agency, but nothing really flashy. The resigning of Carlos Correa after his world tour was probably the most important. He’ll hit in the two hole behind of the oft-injured and uber talented Byron Buxton. I’d love to see what this guy could do in his prime if he stayed healthy for a full season. Jose Miranda and Max Kepler should bat behind them, but overall this lineup is below MLB average top to bottom. The rotation will be led by their trade acquisition Pablo Lopez. He’ll be followed up by Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and the wild card in the group Tyler Mahle. This rotation has potential to be highly above average top to bottom if they can stay healthy. Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez will split the closing duties. If the rotation performs they could exceed expectations, but I just don’t see them being any better than 2022. Prediction 80-82

Chicago White Sox

The Pale Sox lost Jose Abreu in Free Agency and replaced him with their big splash Andrew Benintendi. It’s hard to project sarcasm in writing, but trust me it was there. For a team with a solid pitching staff and solid core of hitters they were likely a few solid players away from competing now. They chose to not spend however and are locked into mediocrity. The top of the lineup is solid with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert offering a dual threat of speed and power combo guys. Eloy Jimenez is an elite slugger, he just needs to put together an injury free season. The bottom of the order is above average, but the depth is weak. Dylan Cease is an ace in the bullpen, but Lucas Giolito hasn’t performed up to his scouting report to this point. Lance Lynn is a solid innings eater with great ratios. Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger will bring up the rear. Liam Hendriks is out as the closer dealing with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, and we wish him well. Until he returns Kendall Graveman will handle the closing duties and things could be rough at the end of games. Depth is going to be a major issue here and the White Sox just keep treading water. Prediction 76-86

Kansas City Royals

The Royals remind me of a poor man’s version of the overachieving 2021 Seattle Mariners. The are lead by a power hitting veteran in Salvador Perez, and have filled in around him with an array of homegrown talent. Bobby Witt is a star in the making atop the order. MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino are big time sluggers who also possess elite on base skills. The bottom of the order features some homegrown average talent and a handle of NRI that will give this team solid depth on offense. The rotation has seen a return of Zack Greinke to his roots. Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he can mentor Brady Singer who has some elite metrics. The rest of the staff is below average. The bullpen has Scott Barlow as the closer, and they signed Aroldis Chapman as trade-bait and to give him a chance prove himself after an awful 2022. Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont are both solid as well. Maybe I’m too high on the Royals (If 74 wins is being high on a team), and they’re likely a year and a few starters away from competing, but sometimes like those 2021 Mariners things happen quicker. Prediction 74-88

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have Javier Baez, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations in Detroit. Austin Meadows dealt with some personal demons and vertigo, but was a top prospect.  Riley Green and Spencer Torkelson were both 1st round picks, but haven’t yet taken the next step after making their debuts. They should both be improved this year. The great Miguel Cabrera farewell tour is also on for 2023, but he is a marginal contributor at best. Eduardo Rodriguez is the best arm in the rotation, but no one is going to be on any Cy Young radars without a guy who Ks a batter per 9 innings and no one projected for a Sub 4.00 ERA. Their two top young arms Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize are likely only going to be available late in the year if at all followng elbow surgery. The bullpen has Alex Lange who looks like a viable closer on paper and not much else. Prediction 70-92

AL Central Free Plays

Even though my predictions show the top three teams well under their win totals I am being conservative on my investment as I think this division is wide open and it’s probably likely one of them will break out. I tagged along a Kiev O’Neill thought on the Royals earlier this spring to win the division at +3000, and I would call +2300 closer to where it should be, but it’s the only value on the division if you want to go that route.

Cleveland Under 87 Wins .5 Units

Minnesota Under 84.5 Wins .5 Units

Chicago White Sox Under 82.5 Wins .5 Units

Kansas City Royals Over 69 Wins 1 Unit

Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

AL West

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

Houston Astros -225/ 96.5 (Offline currently due to Altuve Injury)

Seattle Mariners +285/ 87.5

Los Angeles Angels +725/ 81.5

Texas Rangers  +725/ 82.5

Oakland Athletics +7500/ 59.5

Houston Astros

The Astros won their second World Series title in 2022, but the gap has been closing in this division as they look to repeat. The Astros lose Justin Verlander to Free agency, but they have all homegrown talent stocking the rotation to a solid level. Framber Valdez emerges as the ace of the staff with Christian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy slotting in behind him. Lance McCullers is hurt currently so prospect Hunter Brown may start the year as the #5. The bullpen is a huge strength for this team with Ryan Pressley shutting the door and Rafael Montero and Hector Neris getting him the ball. The lineup should be improved with the addition of Jose Abreu in the off season. Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman will be atop the order with Yordan Alvarez hitting cleanup. Alvarez can’t seem to avoid the injury bug and has been sidelined once this spring already. The rest of the lineup is sub-par. Look for the Astros to surely take a step back in victories in 2023. Prediction 89-73

Seattle Mariners

I think the Mariners can compete this year with the Astros as they should come back to the M’s. They lost Mitch Haniger to the Giants and Adam Frazier to the Orioles, and they sent Jesse Winker to the Brewers, but overall I think this lineup is in better shape than 2022. With superstar Julio Rodriguez anchoring the lineup. They’ve added Teoscar Hernandez for some protection. Mix in Kolten Wong joining from Milwaukee and it is definitely upgraded. Cal Raleigh is a top offensive option at catcher. The biggest question mark is if Jarred Kelenic can finally transfer his AAA success to the big leagues. He has homered at both levels hitting 21 Big league Homers the last two seasons and 27 at AAA. The issue is his strikeout percent which sits over 30% in MLB vs being under 20% in AAA. Because of that his average is .294 at AAA and only .178 in MLB. If he gets it together lookout. The Staff is anchord by Luis Castillo who came over at the deadline last year. He is followed by Robbie Ray and two 1st Round homegrown arms in George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The Bullpen features Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz, but is solid top to bottom. Look for them to finish very similar to last year, but maybe 3-4 wins better if Kelenic can figure it out. Prediction 88-74

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are going to score runs in 2023. They added Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury this off season which gives them seven players that should hit for 20 Home Runs to start off their lineup. Shohei Ohtani is a once in a lifetime talent as a staff ace and 30 Home Run talent. Mike Trout is getting older, he’ll turn 32 this year. The talent is still there, but lately his health hasn’t been. Trout has averaged just 69 games per season since 2020 (Covid included) The rotation will be a 6 man rotation when they go six days in a row. They added Tyler Anderson who reinvented himself last year across town. Patrick Sandoval is a solid number three, but the bottom of the rotation is not going to win them many games. In fact there was a stretch last year where the Angels went four times through the 6 man rotation without winning a game started by anyone but Ohtani. The bullpen is a quagmire with Carlos Estevez and Jimmy Herget liekly to close out games. The Angels are better. If they stay healthy they can compete. Prediction 86-76

Texas Rangers

The great question mark….Jacob Degrom. The Rangers paid 185 Million for 5 years to get him from the Mets. The best pitcher of the last five years has only managed to throw a combined 224.1 innings in the last 3 years. Will he get healthy in Texas? I wouldn’t bet on it. They also signed Free agent pitchers Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi who join Martin Perez and Jon Gray in the rotation. Jose Leclerc can be a solid closer if healthy. The lineup is solid at the top with Marcus Semien, Corey Seagar, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, but the bottom of the lineup is a bunch of retreads and unspectacular prospects. They will need to find some production in order to compete, but they should improve vs 2022 just based on the rotation upgrades.  Prediction 81-81

Oakland Athletics

The A’s stink. That being said 59.5 means 102 losses is their starting point? I can’t see that.  Ownership likely wants to keep this team in rebuild mode until they figure out their stadium situation either in Oakland or Las Vegas. They won 60 games last year, and while not greatly improved they shouldn’t be worse. They added trade bait Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson to the lineup. Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown provide some pop in the lineup. The rotation is made up of a few guys you’ve never heard of James Kaprielan and JP Sears. It’s awful. The bullpen is solid especially in the back end with Trevor May, Zack Jackson and Dany Jimenez. It is actually a better bullpen than a few contenders. I think they win a few more games than last year. Prediction 67-95

AL West Free Plays

This division got a lot better. There’s some value here and I’m dutching up the Mariners and Angels for a unit to knock the Astros off their perch.

Houston Astros Under 96.5 1 Unit

Los Angeles Angels Over 81.5 1 Unit

Oakland A’s Over 59.5 1 Unit

Los Angeles Angels to Win Division +725 .25 Units

Seattle Mariners to win Division  +285 .75 Units

Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

NL West

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

San Diego Padres Even/ 93.5

Los Angeles Dodgers Even/ 95.5

San Francisco Giants +750/ 81.5

Arizona Diamondbacks +3000/ 75.5

Colorado Rockies +6000/ 65.5

San Diego Padres

It’s time for a change in the West. The Padres added another piece signing Xander Bogaerts in Free Agency. They also have Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back from his injury and suspension. You may have forgotten, but he hit 42 bombs and stole 25 bags in 2021. The top of this lineup when healthy is going to be Bogaerts, Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. That’s scary good. The bottom of the lineup is average, but features plenty of veterans who can still swing the bat and create plenty of match-up issues for opposing pitching staffs. Yu Darvish anchors the rotation for the Padres, with Joe Musgrove as a solid #2. Musgrove is coming off an injury to start the season so the Friars are hoping Blake Snell can get a little deeper into games. His stuff has been great, but plenty of walks and deep counts. Josh Hader struggled in the second half last year, but is still one of the elite bullpen arms in the bigs. The rest of the bullpen is solid with 6 guys with a sub 4 ERA. I think this team could get to the top of the division in 2023. Prediction 94-68

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers lost a third of their starting lineup from a team that won 111 games last year. Trea Turner was the biggest loss, but Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger also moved on. They were replaced with JD Martinez and David Peralta which is a downgrade. Gavin Lux was going to takeover for Turner at Shortstop, but tore his ACL this spring so Miguel Rojas will get the nod. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are still in LA however, and Will Smith has emerged as a top offensive catcher. This team scored the most runs in the bigs last year and it wasn’t close. That won’t happen in 2023. Clayton Kershaw still has ace stuff, but his health is always a question. The Dodgers will need more from him with Walker Buehler being sidelined with Tommy John Surgery. Julio Urias is a solid #2. Dustin May is intriguing coming back from injury as he could be an ace in the making. Tony Gonsolin was great last year, but pitched way above his metrics and will start the year injured. The bullpen is solid, but they do not have an established closer on the roster with Kenley Jansen moving onto Boston. Evan Phillps and Brusdar Graterol will likely start the season closing games. LA lost a lot of talent and are one injury away from really having to fight for a playoff spot. Prediction 92-70

San Francisco Giants

The Giants were a .500 team in 2022. They lost Carlos Rodon in free agency to the Yankees, but most of the rest of this team returns intact and the Giants have a knack for reviving pitchers careers and I think they find a way to do that with Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those two will slot in the rotation behind Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. That gives the Giants 5 solid starters to eat plenty of innings in a great pitchers park. The bullpen has Camilio Doval and Taylor Rogers to shut the door in the late innings. What the Giants will need to find a way to do is put runs on the board. The only player that can steal bases in the top 9 is Thairo Estrada. Joc Pederson and recently singed Michael Conforto will be looked for to be the guys driving in the runs. Free Agent Mitch Haniger will join that duo if he can find a way to get healthy. Joey Bart is not the second coming of Buster Posey like the Giants were hoping, but Blake Sabol looks to be a solid option if needed. I think this team can take a step forward if healthy. Prediction 86-76

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Snakes graduated a pair of exciting homegrown first round selections last year in speedster Jake McCarthy and all around star in the making Corbin Carroll. While they traded away Daulton Varsho, they got Gabriel Moreno in return to work behind the dish as well as Lourdes Gurriel. Christian Walker is a solid cleanup hitter who should ht around 30 Long balls. The rotation features ace Zac Gallen who is one of the top run limiters in baseball. Merrill Kelly is in the #2 slot, Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies are below average options behind them. There is some help coming as a few solid minor league options Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry will be up sooner rather than later.  With Mark Melancon injured and also ineffective my money is on Scott McGough or Kevin Ginkel to close games out. The DBacks have 5 solid options at the back end. This team should be better than last year. Prediction 77-85

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies who only a few years ago were one of the most exciting shows in baseball have turned into a laughing stock. Especially the pitching staff. It’s hard to get pitchers to want to come to Denver, but they really aren’t even trying. German Marquez is the leader of the staff, but his ERA has been over 4.5. Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena, Austin Gomber and Connor Seabold are all far below MLB average as pitchers. The bullpen is intriguing in that it has Dinelson Lamet who if healthy could be a future closer or maybe even work his way into the rotation. Daniel Bard plunked Jose Altuve in the WBC and he has a history of being a head case and doesn’t know where the ball is going when he’s struggling. He will close if he can find the plate. The lineup will win them some games. They just signed Jurickson Profar who will likely lead off. Kris Bryant had a wasted year in 2022 with multiple injured list visits. If he’s healthy he will pair with CJ Cron to lead the offense. Ezequiel Tovar is an interesting power speed combo prospect who will get the nod at shortstop. The Rockies are in rebuild mode and not coming out of it anytime soon. Prediction 67-95

NL West Free Plays

Like I said, I think there is a changing of the guard here, but the Dodgers are still formidable. With the win totals favoring LA and the division futures being even, I don’t think there is a value at even money on the Padres to win the division. Instead we will fade LA on the wins total.

Los Angeles Dodgers Under 95.5 Wins 1.5 Units

San Francisco Giants Over 81 Wins 1.5 Units

San Francisco Giants to make playoffs +180 .5 Units