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So far 4-7, -1.02 units. Let’s BUILD!
What a great slate of games today, tons of story-lines, tons of action, tons of tears and I’m sure as always tons of drama. It will be hard to beat the Furman buzzer beater yesterday, but as I have learned over the years, always expect the ‘unexpected‘.
Of the 16 game slate today I have narrowed it down to 7 games.
Starting with one of my top plays at 2:00pm ET, the Gaels.
Yes St. Mary’s burned me and many others in the Conference championship, but I expect Coach Bennett to have the squad fully prepared today to take down the A-10 champs. When I originally went through this game, I saw some staggering stats for the Rams, but as I dug deeper into them who were these great numbers against? St. Louis, Richmond, George Mason? Now don’t get me wrong they took care of business and you can only beat what’s in front of you, but their lack of non-conference competition will be the difference maker today. St. Mary’s lost 2 of their last 3, but to the Zags. Who they beat earlier in the season. I absolutely love this trend, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS off a loss of their L13 and are 6-1 off a DD loss at home in their L7. It’s culture and belief that make up these numbers. I think their stifling defense will be too much for VCU, and they come out of the gate rolling putting that Gonzaga disaster of loss in their rear view mirror!
Play(s):
1H: St. Mary’s -1.5 (FanDuel -115) 0.5 unit
St. Mary’s -4 (Caesars -110) 1.4 units
Let’s move on to the middle slate!
As I stated in my previous article, UConn is everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding. I beleive they take this game wire to wire and cover comfortably.
Play:
UConn -9 (BetRivers -110) 1.25 units
NC St will take on Creighton. This is my 2nd strongest play of the day, as well as my Best Bet upset in the Round of 64. While the Wolf Pack may be at a talent disadvantage, they surely don’t lack in SPEED and determination. Where I have seen Creighton be successful is point blank out shooting teams at an extremely high %, the second that % drops they turn into a different unit. These NC St boys force 13.4 turnovers per game. This will put the Blue jays completely out of rhythm and unable to gain the momentum needed to shoot NC St out of the gym. On the other end SPEED, SPEED and SPEED is what the Wolf Pack have, and they will look to use every ounce of it for this upset to move on. Where they have struggled, is against good defensive teams, Creighton is not that! Getting to the rim is the Wolf Pack’s specialty, and a department Creighton surely has struggled in. On 5 days or more rest, NC St is 5-1 in those games. When you give this squad extra rest, man do these guys fly around.
Play(s):
NC St +5.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
NC St ML +190 (DraftKings) 0.45 unit
We head to the 7:10 and 7:35pm ET slot, where Coach Calipari will take on former high recruit Bryce Perkins and the Friars.
While most remember Kentucky’s early exit in last year’s dance, the players have not forgotten either. Luckily for them Providence severely struggled down the stretch losing 4 of 5, 3 in a row and handily beaten in a few of them. Specifically vs Seton Hall on Senior Day. Whereas Kentucky appeared to figure it out down the stretch, with the exception of Vanderbilt who beat them twice in 3 games. They won the other 5, against quality teams such as, at Arkansas, vs Tennessee and Auburn. UK is going to hit the glass hard, get plenty of 2nd chance opportunities and will be able to get the ball out to their shooters. Providence could hang around, but in the end the Wildcats will have too much firepower to stay in the game.
Play:
Kentucky -4 (Caesars -110) 0.7 unit
25 minutes later, Grand Canyon takes on the Zags. As I stated before, the high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
Play:
Over 154 (DraftKings -110) 0.5 unit
Onto my final two plays of the day, including my Best Bet and 3 unit CRUSH!
FAU will move onto the AAC in 2023, so tonight they will get a little taste of what it’s like to play with bigger schools. The Owls won 31 games, took care of business and, well I don’t have a and. They had a cupcake non-conference schedule, with their 2 ‘tough’ games against UF and Ole Miss, only to split those. Tonight they take on Coach Hardaway who has plans of making it to at least the 2nd weekend. Fresh off their AAC conference title vs #1 seed Houston, Coach was right back in the video room studying the Owls. Memphis has locked it down defensively as of late, giving up 35.8% shooting, 26.5% from downtown, only 11 assists a game, as well as causing 15 turnovers per affair. This style will give the Owls fits on the offensive end and be the difference in this game!
Play:
Memphis ML -125 (Bet365) 3 units
At 9:55pm ET, the Hoosiers take on the defenseless MAC champs. OK Kent St doesn’t look that bad defensively, but playing the MAC night in, and night out can make any team with the ability look like superstars. Taking on at one point one of the better teams in the BIG TEN will be a tough ask. Indiana has the ability to turn it on at both ends, and while all their attention will be on TJD, stopping the rest of the Hoosiers will be extremely difficult.
Play:
Indiana -4.5 (FanDuel -110) 0.6 unit
Good Luck to everyone playing today, pick some winners, make some cash and hopefully I provided with necessary insight to crush today’s card!
It is not totally inconceivable to think the Owls can put up a fight in this 3/14 matchup. Xavier has an atrocious perimeter defense(281st in opponent 3pt FG%), while Kennesaw State knocks down their outside shots at a Top 50 rate in CBB. For all that Xavier does well offensively, they do turn the ball over nearly 12.5 times per game.
With that said, I have a hard time seeing the Owls being able to hold their own against a Xavier offense that’s knocking down nearly 40% of their outside shots and also thrives around the rim. Kennesaw State turns the ball over 12 times per game themselves.
I wouldn’t lay it here, but taking a shot with KenPom’s 3rd luckiest team that’s been off my radar wasn’t very appealing.
*Pittsburgh vs Iowa State(-4.5) O/U 131.5
Pittsburgh is fresh off a First Four victory just a few days ago and returns to the site of last week’s ACC Tournament in Greensboro. I trust the Panthers in this matchup regardless, but I think it’s an added bonus that their offense just passed the test of facing an elite Mississippi State defense.
Iowa State’s pressure style will take a lot of stale offenses out of games; the Cyclones force the 9th most turnovers per game in the country. That said, ball security is one of Pitt’s biggest strengths, as they rank Top 50 in turnovers/game. I’ve said for a while that Iowa State’s on-ball capabilities are quite overrated; this is a group that is 158th or worse in both opponent 2pt and 3pt FG%. Pitt is very capable of finishing around the rim, but Jeff Capel’s squad hangs their hat on the 3-ball, and for good reason(over 36% on the season).
Iowa State’s offense is incredibly mediocre; they play an ugly Half Court style and lack of aggressiveness from the outside. Teams can win this way, but it’s going to be hard to pull away with this style if you rank just 165th in 2-point FG% and 246th in turnovers/game. Pitt actually has a good 2-point defense but will allow good backcourts to have their way. Thankfully, I’m not too worried about Iowa State’s ability to take advantage.
There is another glaring disparity in this matchup that makes this a full game play. Iowa State gets to the Foul Line at a bottom 60 rate in the country but sends their opponents to the line at a Top 50 rate. From there, Pitt holds a MASSIVE 8.3% edge at the charity stripe. Free throw shooting always matters in tightly contested games, and it swings heavily in our direction with this play. Pitt +4.5 is my free play for today!
*Drake vs Miami(-2) O/U 146.5
There are certain aspects of this Miami team I really like(all offensively), but this “rat line” is more than warranted. Miami’s defense will assuredly be the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, and Drake has all the makings of a team ready to take advantage.
Drake is a balanced offense that can beat you in multiple ways. They shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc(32nd in CBB), can beat you closer to the rim, but perhaps most importantly, they turn the ball over less than 10 times per game. If you had to pick a strength with the ‘Canes on this end of the floor, it’d be their perimeter defense, but even then, they don’t rank in the Top 145 in either 3-point defense or turnovers forced per game. The ‘Canes are atrocious in the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 51.8% from 2-point on the season(261st).
Miami is a complete offense that lacks any weaknesses, but this Bulldogs attack they match up with is stiffer than what they’ve become accustomed to playing in the ACC. Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in America and won’t allow Miami to attack the glass. As far as on-ball capabilities, the Bulldogs rank 34th in 3-point defense and 63rd in 2-point defense. Miami has not been at full strength down the stretch run of the season, and I don’t think it’s inconceivable to think this group is off a step early in this game.
I would need Drake to be more disruptive defensively for me to trust them to get stops down the stretch of this game. With that said, the oddsmakers know what they’re doing with this line.
*Kent State vs Indiana(-4.5) O/U 140.5
It should be noteworthy that Indiana is only a slight favorite here in this 4/13 matchup. You could argue that Kent State brings the better defense into Albany tonight, and Indiana has had a jekyll-and-hyde ending to their season.
The Golden Flashes defend the outside shot at the 28th best rate in America and also force turnovers at a Top 20 rate. If Kent State can force this game into the hands of the Hoosiers’ perimeter players like Penn State did, I think they’ll have achieved what they wanted to. While Kent State is still good on the interior, they’ll have the misfortune of facing one of CBB’s finest players tonight in Trayce Jackson-Davis. Indiana has done a good job of not settling for outside shots this year and playing through TJD, and ultimately, I think this commitment to efficiency pays off tonight.
I’d be more interested in backing Kent State if they weren’t so average offensively. The Golden Flashes are more efficient on the interior, so I don’t understand why they attempt 3’s at a Top 100 rate when they make just 33.5% of these. Indiana is not a very disruptive defense, but their on-ball capabilities are still more than good enough to shut down Kent State in this matchup.
Liked this match up a lot when the brackets were released. However, numbers were not as favorable for Arkansas in the research as I had hoped but I have scouted a lot of teams in the last 2 days and I had already watched Illinois a lot.
Arkansas is the better team. They controlled most of the game vs Auburn but let the Tigers back into the game late but held on. They are just a couple weeks off of a 3 point loss at Alabama.
Arkansas is #29 in FG % in the nation.
Arkansas is not playing their best going into this tournament but they’ve beaten good teams like Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri and given the best team in the nation a fight.
Illinois has not won a game away from Champaign since January 28th.
Arkansas is just a little more balanced in their scorers.
These teams are very similar in a lot of numbers. To me, Arkansas is the better team based on the eye test. Small Play going with Arkansas today.
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The big storyline around Houston at the moment is the status of star G Marcus Sasser. That injury will surely play a large role in how you view Houston down the stretch of the tournament, but I find it pretty meaningless in this particular matchup. The Cougars are notorious for dominating inferior competition, and they very well may have drawn the easiest 16 seed. NKU might be power-rated higher than the other 16 seeds, but their weaknesses bode horribly in this particular matchup.
You simply have to match Houston’s physicality on the boards if you want to hang with them. Well… Northern Kentucky ranks 315th in defensive rebounding %. I personally believe Houston should operate more as a 2pt offense and shy away from the 3, but this is a particular matchup where their tendency to shoot from deep will serve them well given NKU ranks 319th in opponent 3pt FG%. NKU will take advantage of sloppy teams, but this Houston team thrives in the halfcourt and turns the ball over just 9.5 times per game(13th in CBB).
It goes without saying, but it’s safe to assume an offense that ranks 283rd in 2pt FG% and is mediocre on the outside is going to struggle mightily to finish possessions against perhaps the best on-ball defense in the country.
I’d be shocked if the Cougars don’t win this game by 20+, though the low-possession nature of these teams is worth considering if you’re going to lay that big of a number.
*Iowa vs Auburn(-1.5) O/U 151.5
As is the case in most Iowa games, the Hawkeyes will have the best and worst unit on the floor. The Hawkeyes hold the 3rd best assist/turnover ratio in CBB, and when they’re hitting outside shots, they’re damn near unstoppable. With that said, they’re shooting just 34.3% from deep on the season(175th in CBB), and Auburn defends the three at a Top 5 rate in CBB.
Iowa’s defense is laughably bad; they rank 295th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt defense. If Auburn shies away from settling for outside shots, I don’t see why the Tigers shouldn’t be able to beat this defense off the dribble time-and-time again.
You have to give Bruce Pearl the coaching advantage over Fran McCafferey(notorious for missing the second weekend), but Auburn has been in a confusing state over the past calendar year. If you’ll remember, the Tigers were a Top 5 team for virtually all of last season before stumbling to the finish in a Round of 32 loss. This year, they have underperformed all season despite bringing back one of the most experienced groups in the SEC.
I can’t endorse backing Iowa given the major defensive mismatch here, but this is not an Auburn group that has inspired much confidence over the last few months. Pretty easy pass for me.
*Texas A&M(-3.5) vs Penn State O/U 134.5
You couldn’t find two offenses that operate more differently. A&M lives around the rim offensively and gets to the foul line at the 2nd highest rate in CBB, while Penn State ranks 12th in 3pt attempts per game but just 362nd in FT attempts per game.
For an offense that neglects the outside shot, it’s a bit concerning to see Texas A&M ranks just 241st in 2pt FG%; this should be their strength. The Aggies do hold a stark defensive edge, but Penn State stepped up tremendously on this end of the floor in their Big 10 Tournament push this past week.
Brad Underwood called Penn State’s offensive style “booty ball”, and if you’ve watched the Nittany Lions this season, that would make sense. They are incredibly patient and risk averse, will back defenders down early in the shot clock to create open looks for their perimeter players, and will make these shots at a high rate. The Aggies have been disruptive against standard offenses, but do I expect that to translate against this one-off style of offense?
I’d be worried about the FT discrepancy as a Penn State backer, but it’s hard to deny that this Penn State offense will be the best unit on the floor in this matchup. If last week was any indication, PSU will have a chance down the stretch.
*Colgate vs Texas(-13.5) O/U 150.5
I’m a die-hard Texas fan who doesn’t offer betting opinions on my Horns, but I feel pretty equipped to share my view of this squad’s makeup.
Many people think Texas runs through Marcus Carr offensively, but the Horns have gotten much more multiple down the stretch of the season. Big-man Dylan Disu has become an integral part of this offense, scoring 10+ in 5 of his last 6 games and 18 in the B12 Championship vs Kansas. Throw in sixth-man Sir’Jabari Rice, veteran F Timmy Allen, surging guard Tyrese Hunter, and a deep bench, and it’s safe to say the Horns have plenty of weapons to beat you.
Texas’ kryptonite defensively is assuredly good offensive rebounding teams; they rank just 186th in defensive rebounding %. They’ve been a little more inconsistent on this end of the floor since Chris Beard’s departure, but they do force TO’s at the 14th highest rate in CBB.
Colgate is one of the best 2pt and 3pt offenses in America and takes great care of the basketball. However, they will not be able to take advantage of Texas’ weakness defensively(292nd in ORB%), and hitting jumpers at a ridiculous rate is virtually their only path to hang in this game considering their subpar on-ball defense(240th in both 2pt and 3pt defense) and lack of disruption on that end of the floor.
Texas is a team that relies on Free Throws quite a bit, but Colgate fouls at the lowest rate in America. That’s a little wrinkle that could matter in a matchup where you’re laying a big number.
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Not sure what the committee’s goal was here, but putting Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and UConn certainly has presented challenges for those who move on each round. Regardless I will break down each and every game in this bracket throughout the tournament, starting with the Round of 64. Let’s get this party started!
Thursday March 16th
Des Moines, IA
16 Howard vs 1 Kansas -22 (O/U 146) 2:00pm ET
The Jay-hawks got absolutely buried by Texas twice in their last 4 games, and are looking to forget it quickly. They still managed to land #1 seed in the big dance, largely because of their plethora of quad 1 wins. This team can get sloppy at times, and it may not matter vs the Bison, but I believe it will come into play in the upcoming rounds. Like the UCLA game, it’s a pass for me, but most surely the wait and see approach.
Play- PASS
9 Illinois vs 8 Arkansas -2 (O/U 144) 4:30pm ET
To me this is one of the most intriguing games of the whole Round of 64. I believe these are two teams that have the ability and talent to potentially make a run, especially with a vulnerable high turnover prone Kansas team waiting in the wings.
You have an Illini squad who beat UCLA, as well as Texas, but lack discipline and lost to Penn St 3 times. They also struggled down the stretch, losing their last 3 of 4 and 6 of 10. They rely on the 3 a bit too much at times, averaging 25 attempts a game, unfortunately for them Arkansas can defend it well. Giving up 5.1 a game, lowering to 3.4 a game in their L5. Can the Razorbacks have short term memory, after blowing a 13 point lead at halftime vs Texas AM in the conference tourney? I believe they can and will, facing an Illini team who has had trouble getting out of the gate this season, but fight like heck late.
Play- 1H: Arkansas -1 (Caesars -110) 0.75 unit
Sacramento, CA
10 Boise St vs 7 Northwestern -1.5 (O/U 129.5) 7:35pm ET
The Wildcats have had an unforgettable season so far, winning 12 games the highest of Coach Collins tenure and playing tough physical defense. Having Boo Buie helps too, scoring in double digits in all but 3 games, and a whopping 13 twenty points or more games! His ability to take over the game at any time has been a big part of their success this season. Their discipline on both ends is going to make it a long day for the Broncos. Committing less than 10 turnovers per game, grabbing 10.4 offensive boards in their L5, and having given up 21.3 made field goals per game in 9 of their L10.
None of this bodes well for a struggling Boise St squad, losing 3 of their L5 and covering in 2 of their last 11 games. Defensively they better figure it out quick, because of their capability of going on scoring droughts. Offensively they have not been able to eclipse more than 44.6% shooting more than once in their last 7. The BSU defense has given up 73.4 points a game in their last 7, as well as 14.8 assists per game in their L5. This is my best bet in the region!
Play- Northwestern ML -130 (FanDuel) 2 units
15 UNC Asheville vs 2 UCLA -17.5 (O/U 135.5) 10:05pm ET
The Bruins who many counted out in the PAC 12 championship due to injuries, led for countless minutes of the game. Only to come up a little short vs a tough Arizona squad, but in my eyes lighting a fire in their backs to start this road to a championship! Yes, UCLA is my pre tournament pick to win it all. They get to face the Big South champs Thursday night in Sacramento, which in my opinion are the perfect opponents to get their confidence back with gorillas waiting to play them in the upcoming games. Adem Bona who suffered an injury March 12th is questionable, but not necessarily needed vs UNC-Asheville. I have no play on this game, but will be closely monitoring the Bruins!
Play- PASS
Friday, March 17th
Albany, NY
12 VCU vs 5 St. Mary’s -4 (O/U 122.5) 2:00pm ET
VCU from what I have read is the ‘Wise Guy’s’ pick, and quite honestly why not. They are the A-10 champs, they force 16.5 turnovers a game, and have shot the ball tremendously recently. In their L5, they shot 51%, 41% from three and averaging 16.6 assists per game.
Now taking on this Saint Mary’s defense will be a tough task, they are good! Arguably one of the best defenses in the country, but will their slow shooting affect them from making any kind of run or for this matter even getting past the 1st round. This game is a strong pass for me.
Play- Strong PASS
13 Iona vs 4 Connecticut -9 (O/U 141) 4:30pm ET
Let’s start with UConn, everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding.
Now they have to face Rick Pitino’s Gael’s who have won 14 in a row, but have not faced a juggernaut like UConn all season. Playing the underdog role is rare for them, being favorites in 24 straight games. 9.5 points or more in 16 of 21, and 12 points or more in 10 of 21. I believe their weak schedule will hurt them in this scenario and will be Rick Pitino’s last game as a Gael.
Play- UConn -9 (Caesars -110) 1.25 units
Denver, CO
11 Arizona St/Nevada vs 6 TCUN/A
14 Grand Canyon vs 3 Gonzaga -15.5 (O/U 155.5) 7:35pm ET
The high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
We have seen the Zags struggle vs this type of team recently in the Dons of San Francisco. The Dons connected on 14 threes and kept it close for most of the game. With it being a 2 point game at the 10:00 minute mark and a 5 point game at the 6:36 mark. If GC can keep its hot shooting going and keep it close, I see the over coming in fairly easily.
We have an great show for you today! Matt Youmans @MattYoumans247 from @VSIN comes on to break down the NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND 1! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday at 9:00 AM PT! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Kiev gives you his bracket upsets and FINAL 4 with his champion for 2023! Then, Matty comes on and the guys get right into their brackets as well as some of the tougher handicaps for the 1st round of the NCAA tournament! Finally, Matt fires out his FREE PLAYS that he has made so far for both Thursday and Friday! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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2-0, +1.60 units so far on March Madness!
Nevada vs Arizona St -2.5 (O/U 134.5) 9:10pm ET
Why revenge, these teams don’t play each other? Well, at the end of the 2021-2022 season, Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington transferred to? Yes you guessed it, Arizona State! Talk about story-lines galore. Does ASU have a better resume and are they better in certain statistical categories, yes. I do think it’s somewhat of an over reaction though, we just saw them beat USC comfortably and play high flying much ‘older’ Gonzaga. Compared to Nevada who lost 3 straight, 2 of the way of OT vs 3 comparably weak teams. The Wolf Pack did hold leads at the 2 minute mark in both OT losses, but were unable to close it out.
Previous to last week they were 22-6, and most would say a cinch to make the Big Dance. But is their resume not as good as ASU though? I believe it could be better even with all the narratives out there betting against the Mountain West. With 4 quad 1 wins and 7 quad 1/2 victories. What they do have is continuity, with all 5 starters who started game 1, and also started game 32. Led by Oregon St transfer senior guard Jarod Lucas, averaging 25 points a game ironically in his L3.
How are the Wolf Pack going to win? Crashing the boards defensively, not turning the ball over and making their free throws. Both these defenses are great at forcing turnovers, but Nevada’s offense is averaging 8.6 a game in their L5, as opposed to ASU is averaging 11.8 in the L5. The Wolf Pack average 17 made free throws a game, while shooting 79% from the charity strike. Whereas ASU ranks 260th nationally at 68.9%. 6’8 freshman forward Nick Davidson could be the difference maker tonight, his ability to score and crash the glass all off the bench could be the final push needed vs the Sun Devils.
I’m all over the Wolf Pack tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!
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Thursday:
West Virginia vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 138.5 – Birmingham AL
Believe it or not, this should be a very solid game to watch. Maryland has more advantages from mid-range and from deep. The Terps rank 61st in adjusted three point percentage while West Virginia ranks 96th defending it. Neither team is all that good inside, but Maryland should have the rebounding advantage here. West Virginia tends to get sloppy with the ball turning it over 18.5% of possessions. Take the points but maybe wait it out some for a three.
Lean Maryland +2.5 – 2.5 stars
Furman vs Virginia -5.5 O/U 132.5 – Orlando FL
This could be a dangerous game for the Wahoos here. They seem to struggle more vs defensive oriented teams though. I am a big concerned that the Paladins rank number one from two point land. This team shoots a lot of threes, and Virginia is a bit weak from downtown ranking 178th in opponent three point FG%. Haslametrics has this as only a 4 point spread. I could see Furman being in this game just based on their hot offense ranking 33rd in adjusted efficiency. Also keep in mind that Virginia lost 6’8 forward Ben Vander Plas who averages 5 rebounds per game with a hand injury. Take Furman.
Furman +5.5 – 2.5 stars – sprinkle ML +230
Utah State vs Missouri PK O/U 154
Utah State is the better rebounding team for sure, but Missouri has had the much harder schedule in the SEC. Both of these teams play a faster paced game and shoot a lot of three pointers. All the numbers give the Aggies a large advantage where it is important. They rank 26th from three point land while Missouri ranks 247th defending it. The Aggies rank 45th in near proximity shots and the Tigers rank 282nd defending that as well. Yikes. Missouri just can’t rebound the ball ranking 354th in that department while Utah State ranks 88th. To add even more pain to the punishment, Missouri has depth issues due to injuries and that could hurt them if in foul trouble. I like Utah State here and I think that they win convincingly.
Utah State PK – 2.5 stars
A&M CC vs Alabama -23.5 O/U 155.5 – Birmingham AL
This game has a feisty A&M team that is probably pretty happy to make this tournament. In saying that, they are playing with house money here against an Alabama team that has expectations though the roof as the number 1 seed. Alabama should be able to decide the score in this game being that they have all of the matchup advantages, but I do not know if they want to win by massive margin or not. There is also a chance that Bama has a rough start after going through the full SEC tournament. I will lean Corpus Christy 1st half.
Lean A&M CC 1st half +12
Charleston vs San Diego State -5.5 O/U 141.5 – Orlando FL
One would think that Charleston might have a slight home court advantage being a six hour drive away as well as a lower seed. Maybe a point or so is worth it. San Diego State has a big near proximity advantage ranking 42nd near the rim to Charleston’s defense at 279th. My big problem with San Diego State is that they are a bad road team only shooting 47.5% effective FG% away from home to Charleston at 50.3%. I really do not have a lean in this game. This is a very solid number.
Princeton vs Arizona -14.5 O/U 154.5 – Sacramento CA
Arizona fans travel well and I expect a home court advantage in California. The Cats will also have all kinds of advantages over Princeton both inside and out. I expect to see more defense from Arizona that they have shown in the past just due to how I am viewing them recently. Princeton is a far from solid team and they have not beaten anybody. There are a few NBA players for Arizona and they make a showing in this first game. The efficiency sites says -13 but the spread is -14.5. It’s about correct. Maybe a first half look isn’t a bad one at the -8.
Strong Lean Arizona -14.5
UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor -11 O/U 143 – Denver CO
UC Santa Barbara is a pretty solid team and they might get some cheers in Denver Colorado due to all of the Zags fans being there. Baylor has a very solid offense ranking 53rd in effective FG%. They should be able to score anywhere vs the Gauchos, but UC Santa Barbara will slow this game down some only ranking 312th in average possession length. I wish UC Santa Barbara could rebound the ball better on offense because that is where Baylor could give up some second chance points. Baylor has been a terrible team away from home ranking 347th in the nation in away splits. I could see a rough start for both teams shooting the ball. I kind of like the 1st half under some but I will wait and see if this total goes up.
1st half under 66.5 for 1.5 stars but wait to see if a 67 pops
NC State vs Creighton -5.5 O/U 148 – Denver CO
Ah NC State. You beat Virginia Tech, Duke, and Miami this year scoring over 80 points, yet you lose to Clemson three times and Syracuse on the road. This NC State team is pretty tough for me to read, but I also know that they have no defense to show. As good as big man DJ Burns can be on offense, this team doesn’t seem very interested on both sides of the ball. Creighton has advantages down low with Kalkbrenner who should be able to score at will. Trey Alexander shoots over 44% from three while two others for Creighton shoot over 36%. I think Creighton wins this game with margin.
