On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for February 22nd and 23rd along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – February 22nd, 2023
Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders
Chicago Blackhawks @ Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames @ Arizona Coyotes
NHL Preview/ Picks – February 23rd, 2023
Anaheim Ducks @ Washington Capitals
Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Edmonton Oilers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Minnesota Wild @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Calgary Flames @ Vegas Golden Knights
Boston Bruins @ Seattle Kraken
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
Updated NCAA basketball records, 9-3 +5.12 units.
North Carolina at Notre Dame +6.5 (O/U 148.5)
Your preseason #1 seed has a distinct possibility of missing the tournament. They have lost 3 straight road games, as well as 5 of 6 and all in conference play. Now they have to face an Irish team who has put up quite a fight recently. Off a 2 point loss at Virginia and a 4 point loss at Duke, while holding those two teams to a combined 40% from the field. Well below their season average of 46.6% per game. The Irish are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 with covers vs. UVA, Duke, NCST and Syracuse. They have played much better than earlier in the season, combine that with the Tar Heels gaudy road numbers, I beleive 6.5 is way to many points to be giving up on the road.
North Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7, their only 2-6 ATS on two days rest and are 1-5 ATS away off of a LOSS. They don’t play the favorite role very well, are just 4-9 as favorites of 12 points or less and are 2-4 as favorites of 5-7 points. This tells me they play down to their opponents or are just not that good as Vegas thinks. If you’re reading this saying, “well trends aren’t everything.” You would be correct, but most of these are gaudy enough to mean something and for me the final kicker is, THEY ARE 1-13 ATS in NIGHT GAMES! When you start to receive my baseball plays you will see that this is one of my favorite angles, the preparation for a day game and a night game is vastly different. For anyone that played sports will understand the mind set is just downright contrasting.
So give me the Irish with the points, for a small UNIT UPGRADE.
Notre Dame +6.5 (FanDuel -110) 1 unit
Tulane at Houston -15 (O/U 146)
I truly spent extra time analyzing this game, and I believe I have come up with the right play. The Cougars come off a gritty win vs an inferior Memphis squad who they kept letting get back in the game. The Houston offense had issues scoring early and from downtown, only landing 3 total three pointers in 40 minutes. Well below their season average of almost 8 a game. Luckily for them, now they get to face a Tulane team who doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. Giving up 75.3 points per game, including 9.5 three pointers per contest.
Now I could sit here and tell you, Tulane is 6-1 to the over on the road or 10-4 to the over in night games but there is more to it than that. They average 82.3 points per game, 16 assists per game and get to the free throw line often! Averaging 17.5 makes per game. Let’s add to it they are one of the fastest teams in the country flying up and down the court. Yes Houston will score many times on the offensive end, but they can’t do it every possession. This is where Tulane will look to get fast points off of Cougar misses.
Now the kicker I found, Houston has struggled in this role each and every time this season. They’re 1-6 ATS at home vs teams over .500, and 0-5 ATS as 13 to 15.5 point favorites, with the over hitting 4 of the 5.
Let’s crush the over here with a nice UNIT UPGRADE!
Over 146 (BetRivers -110) 1.5 units
Good luck to everyone if you’re tailing, let’s keep building that bankroll!
Arizona Coyotes: 20-28-9, 7th Central (13-8-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Calgary Flames
-200
-230
-1.5 (+110)
o6.0 (-120)
Arizona Coyotes
+170
+195
+1.5 (-130)
u6.0 (+100)
CGY: D. Vladar (11-6-4), 2.79 GAA, .889 SV% [CONFIRMED]
ARI: K. Vejmelka (15-17-5), 3.31 GAA, .904 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Pick(s):
Calgary Flames/ Arizona Coyotes over 6.0 (-120) – DraftKings
The Flames have struggled to find consistency all season long. They’re coming off a tough loss against the Flyers where they were heavily favored. Arizona has been on a hot streak as of late winning three of their last four games. During that span, they outscored their opponents 14-9. Karel Vejmelka has been one of the best goalies this year but has allowed five or more in two of his last three starts. Dan Vladar, who gets the nod for Calgary, gave up five in his last start against Detroit. The Flames have not lived up to expectations this season by any means and it should be a tough matchup against Arizona tonight. The Coyotes have a 13-8-2 record at home while the Flames have an 11-9-9 record on the road. While neither team has been great up front, they’ve struggled to limit their opponent’s offensive production. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a 3-3 matchup with the winner coming in OT.
Player Props to Target:
Noah Dobson over 0.5 Points (-105) – DraftKings
Noah Dobson has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last three. He’s on the Islanders’ top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Winnipeg has taken four or more penalties in three of their last four games In his previous matchup against the Jets, Dobson recorded over 0.5 points.
Anders Lee over 0.5 Points (-132) – FanDuel
Anders Lee has gone over this number in each of his last three games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last five. He’s on the Islanders’ top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Winnipeg has taken four or more penalties in three of their last four games. In his two previous matchups against the Jets, Lee has recorded over 0.5 points in both of those matchups.
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160) – DraftKings
Miro Heiskanen has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 8.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Blackhawks rank 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.64. On the road, that number increases to 36.04. Chicago has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen in their last five games. He’s on Dallas’ top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Chicago has taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We backed the Aggies on Saturday in their matchup at Missouri, and it’s clear that Texas A&M is better than they showed earlier in the season. With that said, there is no situation(add in as much home court as you want) where I value them above Tennessee. Perhaps sentiment on Tennessee is a bit low after an ugly loss to Kentucky over the weekend, but I chalk that up to John Calipari having Rick Barnes’ number; every good team has one opponent they simply don’t match up well with.
I think Tennessee’s defense has a far bigger edge than the market is indicating. Texas A&M is not a good outside shooting team and needs to live around the rim to have success, but yet they only rank 173rd in 2pt FG%. Tennessee ranks 6th or better in both 2pt and 3pt defense while simultaneously forcing 15.5 turnovers per game.
Tennessee’s offense can get stale at times, but this is not the toughest matchup for their “3 and D” sort of style. Texas A&M ranks outside of the Top 100 in 3pt defense and also is very mediocre on the boards at this end of the floor. Given Tennessee is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in America, I was able to get to the window with trusting Tennessee’s offense.
This is the same Vols team that took down top-ranked Alabama last week. While I wouldn’t want to back them over the full game given A&M’s knack for living at the foul line, I do expect the Vols to take a lead into the break.
If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
Mississippi St at Missouri -3.5 (O/U 138.5)
Mississippi St comes off a gutted out OT victory vs in state rival Ole Miss, where they committed a season high 19 turnovers. That department will be key Tuesday night when facing a Mizzou defense who has the ability to force quite an amount of them. In the Bulldogs previous four games they had 11 or less TO’s, all below their season average of 12.8 a game.
January 25th they blew a 7 point lead at half, vs at one point #1 ranked Alabama, but that seemed to be the turning point in their season. Since then, the Bulldogs are winners of 6 of 7, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. In those 8 games, they have held opponents to 38% shooting and 6 of the 8 to 66 points or less. In that span they have 3 road wins, which leads to all those great away records. 4-4 SU away, 3-1 SU in neutral territory, 6-2 ATS away, 3-1 ATS away off a win and a lovely 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a win!
State has won 9 of the last 10 match-ups vs Mizzou, including the last two games in Mizzou’s building resulting in outright wins as dogs in both. They held Mizzou to 32% shooting just 17 days ago, now the Tigers come off two losses shooting a combined 35%. This doesn’t bode well for Mizzou facing a Mississippi St defense who gives up 38% shooting and 30% from 3 on the season.
We know Mizzou can shoot the rock, but those stats are very skewed vs BAD teams. Mizzou is truly a bad favorite for many reasons. The Bulldogs are going to hit the glass hard tonight, averaging 11.5 offensive rebounds a game. Now face a Tiger squad giving up 12.8 a game in their last 5. Turnovers and rebounds will ultimately be the difference tonight. I believe this is a great spot for Mississippi St and will be a unit upgrade for me!
Mississippi St +3.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.5 units
Indiana at Michigan St -3 (O/U 137)
The Spartans head home off an emotional loss vs in state rival Michigan, yet another game they led at halftime. They sure are happy to be home, where they play some unbelievable defense. Which will be much needed vs 17th ranked Indiana who has the ability to score and do it often. This Michigan St defense, only gives up 29% from 3, with it dropping to an improbable 22.9% at home. As well as giving up 29.2 points on average in the first half, with this dropping to 24.8 at home! The Spartan offense shoots 37% from 3, ranking them 45th in the country 3% above the national average. This will jump as well, shooting 40% from 3 at home and averaging 17.7 assists per game.
In their last meeting at Indiana, the Hoosiers came away with a 13 point victory, managing to shoot an incredible 60% from three. Pulling off anything close to that would be quite a feat, I believe closer to impossible since the Hoosiers don’t exactly play the same on the road. They’re just 2-7 ATS away, 2-5 ATS off a win away, are 1-4 as 4.5 point dogs or less and 5-10 ATS on two days rest.
I believe we will get a Spartan team looking to fly out of the gate, they are 6-3 ATS off a loss and have a tendency to be leading at halftime. They have been ahead at half in 6 of their last 8, three in a row at home, as well as 4 straight. On the flip side, the Hoosiers tend to be behind at half, being down at half in 4 of 6 and 3 straight on the road. So we will take the Spartans in the first half tonight!
1H: Michigan St -1.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
Good luck to anyone tailing, lets make the first NCAA basketball article a winning one!
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Villanova vs Xavier -5.5 O/U 148
This is a big game in the Big East with a team that is trying to get back on the bubble in the Wildcats vs an Injured Musketeers team. Since Justin Moore came back, Nova has had some pretty good performances beating teams like Seton Hall and keeping it close at Creighton. They do not shoot the ball all that well from three, but they at least rank 65th from two, and number one in the whole country from free throws at 82.2%. Xavier on the other hand is a great shooting team ranking 7th in the nation in effective FG%, but their defense can be a little suspect only ranking 194th in that department and 85th in overall efficiency. The big problem with Xavier was mentioned in the first sentence. Big injuries down the stretch for the Musketeers. Their best player Zach Freemantle isn’t expected back until march. Role player Desmond Claude is questionable with an illness while Forward Jerome Hunter is probably with a banged up ankle. If Kyle Neptune’s Wildcats have any chance in getting in the Big Dance at large, they need to win this game. Gonna take the Cats.
Villanova +5.5 – 2 stars
Fresno State vs Air Force -2 O/U 124.5
This is a simple handicap. Air force is a good home team ranking 27th in home/away discrepancy. They have advantages from three point land ranking 93rd at 35.7% from the arc while ranking 54.7% in effective FG%. Their big issue is turning the ball over at a 21.8% rate, but they seem to do much better at ball control at home and have cleaned it up over the past three games. Fresno State isn’t a good shooting team at all ranking 302nd in effective FG% while not getting the second chance points ranking 303rd in offensive rebounding. Fresno is good from two, but they lost one of their best scorers in Isaiah Moore to a hip injury who averaged over 11 points per game. I think this is a good spot for Air Force.
Jon Rahm wins the Genesis Invitational to capture his third victory in his last five starts. In his seven PGA Tour appearances this season, he has never finished worse than T8. With that victory, he recaptured the number-one world ranking. Max Homa put up a fight but ultimately fell two shots short. Tiger Woods also made his return to the PGA Tour where he finished T45.
We switch coasts as the Honda Classic takes place at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida this week. Given its spot in the PGA Tour schedule, it’s an extremely weak field. It’s sandwiched between two of the newly elevated events which have caused each of the top-15 golfers in the world to skip this event.
Last year, we caught Sepp Straka at 125-1 at the Honda Classic! He came from five strokes behind on Sunday to capture his first career PGA Tour victory. Let’s see if we can recapture that magic and find this year’s winner!
🚨Honda Classic Tipster Round Up🚨
Sepp!! Congrats backers and E/W bets! Nearly 3/3 for the charts with Lowry! 😣
The Honda Classic begins the Florida Swing of the PGA Tour. The event was founded in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason-Inverrary Classic. In 1973 National Airlines was co-sponsor with Gleason until 1981 when American Motors Corporation took over the sponsorship rights. In 1982, Honda became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. However, after this season they are set to end their 42-year run as the title sponsor for this event.
In 2007, PGA National became the permanent host of this event. On the property, they have six golf courses but ‘The Champion’ will be the only course that’s used. It was originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations under the supervision of Jack Nicklaus’ company. In 2014, the par-four fourteenth was significantly altered along with the expansion of several greens (No 1, 9, 15, and 17). Five years ago, Nicklaus Design’s removed several palmetto palms on the ninth hole allowing for an easier approach shot. The latest renovation (last year) included the removal of several bunkers on No. 13 and No. 16 in addition to the reduction of a few bunkers on No. 17 and No. 18.
This year’s field is a significant drop-off from last year’s event. Given the position of this event in the middle of two designated events, most of the top players have decided to skip this stop. This is one of the main reasons that Honda has dropped their sponsorship as they feel slighted by the PGA Tour. Despite it being one of the weaker fields on Tour, the purse has still been increasing. This year’s purse is $8.4 million which is $1.4 million more than what was offered in 2021.
72-Hole Record (PGA National):
267, Camilo Villegas (2010)
18-Hole Record:
61, Brian Harman (2nd round, 2012), Matt Jones (1st round, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
PGA National is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2022, only two holes (No. 1 & No. 13) were played under par outside of the two par 5’s (No. 3 & No.18).
In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,125 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 29.4 feet. This ranks as the 11th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway won’t be as costly. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.
The course’s main defense is predominately the water hazards that come into play on nearly every hole (15/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.
The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this week and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes were played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.
The four Par 3’s range between 175 yards and 226 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 175 – 200 yards.
No. 15, is the start of the ‘Bear Trap’ and while it’s not the longest of the Par 3’s on the course, it is the toughest playing 0.212 strokes over par last year. Players will try and hit an iron into a diagonal green that slopes towards the water on the right. A bunker protects the back of the green which has proven to be a challenge in the past given the limited landing area.
The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 1 is the shortest listed at 365 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 508 yards.
No. 6, is a long par-4 playing 479 yards that is normally a par-5 but is changed for this event. Last year, this was the toughest par-4 on the course playing 0.378 strokes over par. Off the tee, it’s extremely narrow with water to the left and fairway bunkers on the right. From there, players will try and hit a shot into a small green that, you guessed it, is surrounded by more water and bunkers. The green is a three-tiered green which can leave some difficult putts depending on the pin location for the day.
The two Par 5’s are No. 3 and No. 18. They both played under par last year and will need to be taken advantage of if players want to have a chance this week.
No 18, is listed at 556 yards on the scorecard but on the official website is listed at 604 yards… I’m going to choose the scorecard but is something to monitor this week. It’s a double dogleg par 5 that first goes left and then right. Off the tee, players will have water and bunkers along both sides. From there, it gets a little more difficult as they have to weigh the risk vs reward for their second shot. The green is nestled between numerous bunkers and water which can come into play if they flair one out left.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Honda Classic. Only 3 of the world’s top 20 players will be in the field. Sepp Straka will look to defend his title after he became the first Austrian to win on the PGA Tour. If he can do so, he’ll join Jack Nicklaus as the only player to have won back-to-back years at this event. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:
Sungjae Im (+900), struggled in his final round at the Genesis last week finishing T56. Before that, he had finished T18/ T4/ T6 in his last three starts on Tour. Last year at this event, he missed the cut losing 1.52 strokes on the green. In 2020 he won the Honda Classic and finished T8 in 2021.
Shane Lowry (+1400), was the runner-up at the Honda Classic last year. In his five starts at PGA National, he has never missed the cut. He’s coming off a T14 finish at the Genesis Invitational last week. Before that, he missed the cut at the WM Pheonix Open losing strokes in every major category. His best finish this season was at the Hero World Challenge where he placed 18th.
Min Woo Lee (+2500), will compete in his first PGA Tour event of the season. He played in all four of the majors last season with his best finishes coming at The Masters (T14) and The Open Championship (T21). He’s played in four DP World Tour events this year finishing T13/ T2/ 3rd/ T4. Lee has never played in this event before so he has no course history here.
Alex Noren (+2500), will make his sixth appearance at the Honda Classic this week. Last year, he finished T5 at this event. His best finish ever at PGA National was back in 2018 when he placed 3rd. Noren’s coming off a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open where he struggled off the tee. Before that, he finished T5 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (DP World Tour) and T4 at the Houston Open.
Aaron Wise (+2500), has missed the cut in his last two starts (WM Phoenix Open & The American Express). Before that, he finished inside the top-22 in his last four starts. He’ll be playing in his fifth Honda Classic finishing T33/ T35/ T13/ MC in his four previous appearances at PGA National.
Previous Winners in the field:
Sepp Straka (’22), Sungjae Im (’20), Padraig Harrington (’15, ’05), Rory Sabbatini (’11), Camilo Villegas (’10), Luke Donald (’06), and Matt Kuchar (’02)
Notable Withdraws:
Dany Lee, Sam Ryder, David Lipsky, Patrick Rodgers
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Sepp Straka: MC/ T27/ T33/ 1
Sungjae Im: T51/ 1/ T8/ MC
Sam Ryder: T53/ T8/ T9
Byeong-Hun An: T5/ T36/ T4/ MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Arjun Atwal: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC
Andrew Landry: MC/ MC/ MC
Brandon Wu: MC/ MC
Doc Redman: MC/ MC
Henrik Norlander: MC/ MC
Hank Lebioda: T70/ MC/ MC/ MC
Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC/ T48
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
Price: 125-1
2021: Matt Jones (-12)
Price: 80-1
2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
Price: 35-1
2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
Price: 300-1
2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
Price: 12-1
Picks (Outrights):
Thomas Detry (+4000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Jhonattan Vegas (+4400) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.19 to win 8.36 Units
Ben Griffin (+6600) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Joseph Bramlett (+7000) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Byeong-Hun An (+8000) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
S H Kim (+8000) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Ben Taylor (+10000) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Mark Hubbard (+15000) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.98 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Chris Kirk (+140) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Chris Kirk struggled in his last start missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. Before that, he finished T3 at The American Express and 3rd at the Sony Open. He struggled with his irons at the WM Phoenix Open but has been great in his two starts before that. Last year he finished T7 at The Honda Classic despite gaining no strokes off the tee or on approach. If you exclude last week, Kirk has been playing some great golf and has shown he can have success on this course. In this weak field, he should compete and be able to finish in the top 20.
Adam Svensson (+165) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Adam Svensson had a great week at the Genesis Invitational finishing T9 despite losing strokes on approach. Earlier this season, he won the RSM Classic gaining over three strokes on the green. PGA National features a similar green complex to those at Sea Island which is a positive. However, he did lose strokes putting last year at this event but still managed to finish T9. He’s been much better with the flat stick this season along with his play off the tee which is encouraging.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Hayden Buckley (+100) – Bet365
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
While Buckley isn’t a contender in some of these bigger events, he has proven himself in the weaker events this season. In his ten starts on Tour this year, he has finished inside the top 40 six times. His best finish of the year was at Waialae Country Club where he finished 2nd. He’s missed the cut in two of his last three starts on Tour but those were events that had a much stronger field. Buckley is great off the tee and his approach numbers have been decent in his last few starts. One major positive has been his putting. Last year on Tour he ranked 169th in SG: Putting and this year he ranks 86th.
Sam Stevens (+160) – Bet365
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Sam Stevens has made the cut in his last three starts on Tour which is something half of the field can’t say. He finished 67th at the Amex followed by T13 at the Farmers and most recently T34 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s been fantastic on the greens in his last two starts gaining over a stroke on the field. Last year at the Honda Classic, he finished T55 where he also putted well. His downfall was off the tee but most recently he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last six starts on Tour. Steven’s approach play has also been much more consistent which should help him this week.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on The Honda Classic: 4.98 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
If Saturday’s 25-point win and 100-point outing vs Oklahoma State wasn’t an indication that it’s time to “buy” on TCU, I don’t know what is. TCU had entered Saturday on a 4 game losing streak but saw their value increase in the betting markets, and for good reason. With Mike Miles Jr fully integrated back into the lineup, this is the right time to take a stand with the Horned Frogs in this sort of spot.
Kansas is playing about as good of basketball as anybody at the moment, but this is not a team I’m racing to the window to back on the road. We saw Kansas State take down the Jayhawks in an eerily similar spot, while Iowa State won comfortably vs Kansas as well.
TCU’s 23-point win in Lawrence earlier in the season definitely included some good fortune, but there are repeatable aspects of that matchup that I expect to carry over here. Kansas was forced into 17 turnovers at home in the first meeting and has been mediocre at taking care of the ball this year; given TCU ranks 16th in TO’s forced per game, I expect a similar struggle for Kansas in this game. Miles certainly helps TCU’s perimeter play, but TCU operates almost solely around the rim offensively. Kansas is good at protecting the rim and defending the 2, but they are quite mediocre on the defensive glass, while TCU is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Big12.
I also expect a sizable free throw disparity in this matchup. TCU gets to the line at a Top 50 rate and fouls less than 16 times per game. The Horned Frogs are one of the most experienced teams in the conference that are gelling at the right time; I see Kansas coughing one up on the road.
NFL Playoff’s 2022-2023 Season: 30-17, +13.80 units
Up over 30 units overall so far in 2023!
I have 15+ plus years of gambling experience, including a wealth of gambling knowledge. I specialize in NFL, NBA, MLB and NCAA-F, as well as horse racing. I have always been around the gambling industry: I played professional Jai Alai, I dealt Blackjack and was also a Jockey agent in horse racing.
I have been handicapping well, basically anything for as long as I can remember. Freshman year of HS in 2004 I picked UCONN to win the NCAA tourney and won my pool. Then in 2006, I handicapped INVASOR to win the Breeders Cup Classic.
Needless to say I was hooked for life after those wins. Throughout my life, I have consistently won deep football pools, to multi day poker tournaments, to pick 4/5/6’s in horse racing. All resulting in gigantic scores.
My clients will receive all my plays as I play them. Including write ups on each and every game, to focus on the why and how I came to a decision. Giving them insight on my thought process and ALWAYS up to the minute lines as I release them. Win or lose I’m honest and transparent. I have learned when you lose, don’t hang your head. As in Charles S. Howard said in Seabiscuit “you get up and keep trying!”
This past year I decided to take my passion from a hobby, to being a professional and the numbers have spoken for themselves. I have focused on getting better each and every day and learning from my mistakes. You will get my 100% focus and effort at all times. I truly do enjoy writing articles, so when you’re reading them know, you’re getting my full heart and passion put into them. And in my opinion that’s what it takes to be a WINNING Sports Bettor!
Purchase my Premium Package just below at any time! In this package you will receive all of my plays on each sport. Discounts will be available throughout the season for each sport as well. So come along to Eric Rocco’s SPORTS Mission and let’s enjoy the journey together!
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My baseball package is also now available, you can purchase the whole season, or if there is something else you are looking for DM me at anytime!
Can someone please tell Nebraska that they are not good? I mean, winning three of their last four games in non-sense right? The only thing that is non-sense is Maryland being favored by over three points on the road. Maryland’s real weakness is shooting the three ball ranking 335th FG% from the arc. They also do it too often ranking 158th in three point attempts. Nebraska isn’t the best shooting team themselves, but the emergence of Keisei Tominaga who is shooting 41% from the arc has really gotten this Cornhusker’s team motivated as of late. Maryland’s strength is certainly inside the paint, but the fact that Husker guys like 6’9 Derrick Walker, and 6’7 Sam Griesel has stepped up their D, they have kept teams like Rutgers and Wisconsin at bay. The Cornhuskers have some quality home wins vs Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin under their belt. I think they can keep the momentum that has won three of their last four big 10 games. Maryland is in a let down spot after beating Purdue. Nebraska has an opportunity here to get to .500. I think they will.
