We have an great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 from @ShotQualityBets comes on to break down some more MARCH MADNESS 2023! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Justin comes on and the guys get right into how the committee did at seeding these brackets! After that, the guys break down the FULL SLATE of Friday tournament games with some FREE PLAYS! Finally, Kiev and Justin end the show by talking about what they might like for the play in games of the NCAA tournament! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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What a lackluster finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler at 10-1 wins it, capturing his second victory on Tour this season. His five-stroke victory was the largest on Tour this year. Scheffler now joins Jon Rahm and Max Homa as the only players to have won multiple events this season. With that victory, Scheffler has now returned to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s also the defending champion at two of the four upcoming events which is also something to keep an eye on.
The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida-type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways which is something you don’t see too often in the Sunshine state. Given it’s not a ‘designated vent’ we still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. Sam Burns is going for a three-peat at the Valspar Championship this week. If he’s able to do so, he’ll be the first player since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.
In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned in 2021 when Sam Burns captured his second consecutive victory on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook.
Innisbrook Resort has four courses: Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.
The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was also part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.
This is one of the newer events on Tour making its debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that period, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled to hold down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and has been the presenting sponsor since then.
Most Tournament Wins:
2, K.J. Choi (’02, ’06), Retief Goosen (’03, ’09), Paul Casey (’18, ’19), Sam Burns (’21, ’22)
72-Hole Record:
266, Vijay Singh (2004)
18-Hole Record:
61, Padraig Harrington (1st round, 2012)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only seven holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were No. 10, 12, and 17.
The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth-lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee is especially crucial this week given the rough has grown out from 3.00″ to 3.75″.
There are five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 8 which played just 0.083 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 17 which played 0.025 strokes under par.
The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.
The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is listed at 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.
Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.
Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players somehow hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.
Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is a relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16 – 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Valspar Championship. Only four of the world’s top fifteen players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:
Justin Thomas (+1100) has four top-20 finishes in his five appearances at Innisbrook Resort. His best finish during that span was last year when he finished T3. Last week at the PLAYERS, he had his worst finish of the year (T60) losing 1.11 strokes on the green. He has yet to win an event this season but has six top-25 finishes in his eight starts on Tour this year.
Jordan Spieth (+1200) will make his first start at Innisbrook Resort since 2018 when he missed the cut. Outside of that year, he has been great at this event winning in 2015. Spieth has had his struggles his season but has turned it around as of late finishing T4 and T19 in his last two starts on Tour.
Sam Burns (+1600) has now won the Valspar in back-to-back years. However, his recent play has been sub-par as he has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on Tour. Last week at the PLAYERS, he finished T35 gaining strokes in nearly every category.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1800) has had an up-and-down season to start the year. He’s competed in eight events finishing top-15 in four of them and missing the cut in three. Fitzpatrick made his debut at the Valspar in 2018 where he missed the cut. In his only other appearance at Innisbrook, he finished T5.
Previous Winners in the field:
Sam Burns (’22, ’21), Adam Hadwin (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Kevin Streelman (’13), Luke Donald (’12), Gary Woodland (’11)
Notable Withdraws:
Callum Tarren, Taylor Montgomery, Anders Albertson, Aaron Rai
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Sam Burns: T12/ T30/ 1/ 1
Matthew NeSmith: T21/ T3
Justin Thomas: T10/ T18/ MC/ T13/ T3
Jordan Spieth: T7/ T20/ 1/ T18/ MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Zac Blair: MC/ MC/ MC
Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC
Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC
Cody Gribble: MC/ MC
Sam Ryder: T68/ MC/ MC/ MC
Peter Malnati: MC/ MC/ MC/ T60/ MC/ MC
Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ T59/ MC/ MC
Michael Kim: MC/ T52/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Sam Burns (-17)
Price: 25-1
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
Price: 80-1
2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
Price: 25-1
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
Price: 25-1
Picks (Outrights):
Keegan Bradley (+2500) – DraftKings (Keegan WD on Wednesday)
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – DraftKings (Replacing Keegan Bradley)
0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Davis Riley (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Wyndham Clark (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Gary Woodland (+4000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Taylor Moore (+7000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Nate Lashley (+9000) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units (Update 1.21 Units)
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Hadwin (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Hadwin started off the season strong making the cut in each of his nine starts before failing to make the weekend at Bay Hill. He followed that missed cut up with a T13 finish at the PLAYERS last week gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. Hadwin has some interesting course history at Innisbrook. He won the Valspar Championship in 2017 and followed that up with a T12 finish in 2018. In the following two appearances here, he missed the cut. However, last year he put together a much better performance finishing T7. He’s not long off the tee ranking 135th but given the narrow fairways accuracy is more important this week where he ranks 24th. His approach play has also improved this season ranking 36th in strokes gained. Given his recent form and course history, Hadwin seems like he should be able to grab his second consecutive top-20 finish at Innisbrook.
Justin Rose (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Justin Rose captured his first PGA TOUR win early this season at Pebble Beach since the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Following that victory, he fell into a rut missing the cut in each of his next two starts. Last week, he seemed to figure things out off the tee at the PLAYERS finishing T6. His approach play has also been fantastic this season gaining strokes in each of his last five starts. The last time he played in the Valspar Championship was back in 2021 when he missed the cut for just his second time here. Out of his eleven appearances at Innisbrook, Rose has finished inside the top 20 six times. He seems to be in great form and given his extensive course knowledge, Rose seems primed for another great finish.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Ben Griffin (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
After missing the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Griffin has been playing some great golf finishing T21, T14, and T35 in his last three starts. He’ll be making his debut at Innisbrook. Griffin ranks 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 64th in SG: Approach. Last week, at TPC Sawgrass which has a similar green complex, he gained strokes on green, so I’m not too concerned about his putting. Despite the rookie making his debut at the Valspar, he seems like a great course fit.
Brandon Wu (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Brandon Wu has been on a hot streak finishing T14 and T19 in his last two starts. Last week at the PLAYERS, he gained 1.88 strokes putting which is a great sign as we head to Innisbrook this week which has a similar green complex. Last year at the Valspar Championship, he finished T33 gaining strokes in every category besides around the green. He ranks 57th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 49th in Driving Accuracy both of which are key stats this week. Wu should be able to continue his great form at the Valspar Championship and finish inside the top 40.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 5.17 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 Michigan State vs 10 USC – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
Here is the bottom half of the bracket. Let’s Go!
6 Kentucky (-4) vs 11 Providence O/U145
The Wildcats started off the season slow after a first round tournament exit last year as a #2 Seed losing to St. Peter’s. The struggled to the midpoint of the season when they lost to South Carolina. They righted the ship going 11-3 to closeout the SEC slate, before falling in the SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt. The Kentucky offense is explosive, and they can score in bunches. They also give up points in bunches as well. They also struggle from the free throw line which could be their undoing. Providence comes into the tourney ice cold after losing 4 of their last 5 including some very uninspired performances. If they want to hang with Kentucky they better figure things out quickly. Both of the metrics on these teams are very similar so I don’t have a side here. Both are highly efficient on offense although not really fast tempo teams. I lean to the over, but I am 0-7 on games involving Providence and Kentucky this season, so I’m just gonna sit this one out.
3 Kansas State (-8.5) vs 14 Montana State O/U 139.5
The KSU Wildcats as a #3 seed surprised some folks, but I think it is probably well deserved. They went 11-7 in the toughest conference in the nation and had wins against Kansas and Texas. They play fast and can score with anyone, but have also shown they can win grind it out games against the likes of Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Markquis Nowell is the kind of player that can takeover a game, and they’ve got plenty of Senior experience on their side. Their major strength is on the defensive side of the ball where they can stifle opponents for long stretches. Montana State is hot having won 17 of 19. They are a very good half court high ball pressure defensive team. That works in the Big Sky, but both times they have stepped up in class this year against Arizona and Oregon they have lost by 20. Their offense just isn’t going to be good enough to keep up, and they only shoot 32% from distance. The money is coming in on Montana State, but I’m staying away. I lean KSU here -8.5.
7 Michigan State (-2) vs 10 USC O/U 137.5
Sparty is back in the tournament again with a middling seed this season. Coach Izzo tends to get the best from his groups in March, but he needs to get more consistent offense from this group for MSU to have a chance to make a run. They do shoot the 3 Ball at 39.5% good for 4th in the nation so if they have a run of games where those keep dropping it could happen. The problem is they play slow and only shoot 3’s on 33.3% of their shots. Other than the last few minutes against Iowa a few weeks ago the defense is it’s usual solid self. USC has Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis who shoots…a lot. They have lacked consistency as well for most of the season holding a win over UCLA, but also losing to FGCU and Oregon State. USC does gum up the paint very well and is 9th in effective FG% defense so I think they’ll slow this one down a little and try to turn this one into a cage match. I’m on the Under here 137.5 for 1.5 Units.
2 Marquette (-10.5) vs 15 Vermont O/U 144.5
The Marquette crew earns a #2 Seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference Tourney. It is well deserved as Shaka Smart has this team rolling in all facets. They own a pair of victories over UCONN, Creighton, and Xavier. They boast a Top 10 offense that always seems to come up with clutch buckets when needed. Big East player of the year Tyler Kolak can shoot it and dish it with the best in the country. Vermont is no stranger to the tournament, and they always seem to give some poor top seed a run for their money. They shoot the ball well and don’t turn it over ranking 9th in the country giving it up on only 14.2% of their possessions. That’s a recipe to hang with anyone, and I could see it happening here, but unfortunately they won’t have enough scoring in the end to drop this Golden Eagles Squad who I have coming out of the East and going to the Final Four. No plays on this game though as I think it is right on the number.
I’ll be back next week to review the same region for the Sweet Sixteen!
We have an great show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks comes on to break down some MARCH MADNESS 2023! First, Kiev talks about some promotions as well as our NCAA tournament challenge starting this Thursday! Get in right here: Click Here To Join! Next, Kyle comes on to break down a few play in games as well as going over some early tournament trends. After that, the guys break down the FULL SLATE of Thursday tournament games with some FREE PLAYS! Finally, Kiev and Kyle end the show by talking about what they might like for Friday! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll share some insights on half of the bracket tonight, and the other half tomorrow evening.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 USC vs 10 Michigan State – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
We will take a look at the play-in game and the top half of the bracket tonight, and the bottom half tomorrow night.
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern (-2.5) vs Fairleigh Dickinson O/U 145.5
FDU got into the dance by default with Merrimack still making a D1 transition and not eligible for the NCAA Tourney. They are also the lowest efficiency team in the tournament. They have the third worst rated defense in all of D1 rankings 361st. About the only thing they do well when their opponent has the ball is turn them over. The poor FDU defense will match-up with one of the worst offenses in the country in Texas Southern. They got in thanks to a Cinderella run as an 8 Seed in the SWAC Tourney. I lean FDU as even though they have an awful defense, I just can’t bring myself to play a team that shoots 28.7% from distance like Texas Southern in a game like this.
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD
Purdue will face the winner of the play-in cupcakes, and shouldn’t have any problems. The Boilermakers earned their #1 seed by winning the Big Ten regular and Post-season Crowns. They are led by 7’4″ Zach Edey. They pack it in around him on the defensive end and slow the game down to take advantage of his size and passing ability inside on offense. Purdue does have two weak points and I believe one of them will cost them a game in this region. They don’t turnover their opponents as the are 329th in that category on defense. The bigger one is the lack of consistent shooting from 3-point range hitting at just 32.6%. I think they get challenged in the Round of 32 by whoever gets through the 8/9 Match-up.
8 Memphis (-2.5) vs 9 FAU O/U 150.5
The Owls of FAU dominated the Conference USA regular and post-season. They have 7’1″ Center Vladislav Goldin who could hang with Edey should they get by Memphis. The Owls are Top 20 in both offensive and defensive Field Goal Efficiency and will be a tough out for anyone. Memphis’ Deandre Williams will be the key to this game for the Tigers. If he can exploit a potential size match-up against FAU’s guards on the perimiter it could give Memphis an edge. Memphis just knocked off the #1 team in the land, Houston to win the American conference tournament and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Tigers struggle to protect the glass giving up quite a few second chances. I think FAU is a really well coached team and I believe if they take care of the ball they can get the win. Just a lean for me however.
5 Duke (-6.5) vs 12 Oral Roberts O/U 146
So the real question for me here is how good is Oral Roberts. They shellacked the Summit League. Two years ago as a 15 Seed they made it to the Sweet Sixteen and were a bucket away from the Elite Eight. They are fun to watch as they play at a fast tempo, but also are the #1 team in the country at taking care of the ball. They shoot 37% from behind the arc and are the #7 team in the country in effective FG%. They also have 7’5″ Connor Vanover inside. Duke is peaking and getting healthy at the right time. The Blue Devils have one and done sensation Kyle Filipowski to contend with inside and at 7 Feet tall he can at least almost stand nose to nose with Vanover. I think Duke will slow this game down and let their defense take over. That being said Oral Roberts could shoot themselves into this one if they are hot from outside. However…. I’m on the Blue Devils -6.5 1.5 Units.
4 Tennessee (-10.5) vs 13 Louisiana O/U 136.5
The Volunteers lost guard Zakai Ziegler to a torn ACL on Feb 28th. They are still trying to piece together their rotation as we head into the tournament and after an 18-3 start they’ve limped to 5-7 in their last 12 contests. Rick Barnes also has an awful history in the tournament both straight up and against the spread. That being said I think the pieces that remain in Knoxville are strong enough on defense to stifle this Louisiana attack. They are the top team in the nation in defending the 3 point shot and 2nd in defensive effective field goal percent. They will also have a definitive size advantage and are #5 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Louisiana is middle of the pack on defense and slightly above average on offense. They certainly were in every conference game in the Sun Belt, but they lost by double digits both times they stepped up in class when playing Texas and Drake. It will take some fast break points and solid shooting for them to sniff 70 in this one. I’ve got it 75-62 so I am on Tennessee -10.5 for 2 Units.
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Milwaukee at Sacramento +2 (O/U 244.5) 10:00pm ET
The high flying, high scoring Sacramento Kings take on arguably the #1 team in basketball Monday night. Averaging 132 points a game in their L9 and have not been held to under 122 points in almost three weeks. They have won 8 of their last 9 and 4 out of 5 at home.
Now taking on the Bucks is a tough task, but I believe they landed them at the best moment. With Milwaukee playing their 4th road game in their L5, and have traveled quite a bit since March 1st. Now flip the script. When Sacramento arrived home on March 1st, they played only 5 games and made one round of traveling, that was too Phoenix. Winning 4 of those 5, while beating the Clippers, the Knicks and the Suns. Ironically though, they have played 12 of their last 19 away from home.
The Kings have shot 53% in their L5 and 39% from downtown. This will need to keep up in order to beat Milwaukee, luckily for them the Bucks have struggled defending the 3 recently. Giving up 38% in their L5, but more importantly opponents staying in games with the way of the 3. The Kings get to the line and do it often, averaging 29 free throw attempts a game, as well as committing only 11 turnovers a game in their L5. Both of these are important when fatigue sets in late in this game for Milwaukee. If you wanted to find a weakness on the Bucks, they average 15 turnovers in their L5. Meaning extra possessions for Sacramento and getting bonus stops.
Backing Sacramento as dogs and on 1 day’s rest has been a recipe for success. They’re 26-11-1 ATS this season on 1-DR, 4-0 ATS in their L4. As dogs they have won and covered in 5 of their last 6. As good as Milwaukee is, recently they’re 1-4 ATS their L5 vs teams over .500, as well as 6-10-1 ATS overall for the season playing teams over .500 on the road. As opposed to 5-0 ATS vs teams under .500 their L5.
I’m on Sac town tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!
Kings +2 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
Let’s get this in the winner’s circle to kick off March Madness week!
We only have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Pick(s):
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Seattle Kraken (+104) – FanDuel
The Kraken are coming off an overtime loss against the Stars in their most recent game. Seattle outshot Dallas in that matchup but, Philipp Grubauer struggled finishing with a -1.24 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Dallas is sticking with Jake Oettinger in net tonight, while Seattle has decided to switch things up and have Martin Jones start. After a strong start to the season, Oettinger has fallen off a bit allowing at least three goals in each of his last four starts. Martin Jones will get his first start since March 2nd.
Dallas is in the middle of a six-game road trip and have won their first two games. Seattle is on their last game of a four-game homestand where they haven’t been great going 1-2. The Kraken also need every point possible as they’re in a playoff battle with Edmonton for the 3rd seed in the Pacific.
As a home underdog tonight, I think we see a much more inspired effort from the Kraken as they look to take revenge on a team that just beat them.
Player Props to Target:
Artturi Lehkonen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+118) – FanDuel
Artturi Lehkonen has gone over this number in just two of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 shots on goal and 3.2 shot attempts per game. However, on the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Canadiens rank 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.76. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.12. Montreal has also given up the 5th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers this year. In their previous matchup against the Canadiens this year, Lehkonen recorded 3 shots on goal in 5 attempts.
Valeri Nichushkin over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130) – FanDuel
Valeri Nichushkin has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 4.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Canadiens rank 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.76. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.12. Montreal has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this year.
Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-144) – FanDuel
Oliver Bjorkstrand has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Stars rank 12th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.92. On the road, that number drops slightly to 32.31. Dallas has also given up the 5th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers in their last ten games.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-148) – FanDuel
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Canadiens rank 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.76. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.12. Montreal has also given up the 14th most shots on goal per game to Centers this year. In his three previous matchups against the Canadiens, MacKinnon has recorded more than 4.5 shots on goal twice.
Mitchell Marner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
Mitchell Marner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Sabres rank 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.42. On the road, that number increases slightly to 34.23. Buffalo has also given up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this year.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
My 2023 NCAA® Men’s Bracket Games pool , The OddsBreakers, is back for another year on CBSSports.com. Visit the pool before the tournament starts so we can compete all of March Madness ® Please click here: Click here!
We have some slight modifications this year to scoring. The earlier games do matter more than before and we are giving away $500 in prizes to the top 4 finishers in this challenge. All you need to do is wright a 5 star review and take a screen shot and send it to INFO@TheOddsBreakers.com. If you already have the review then you can just retweet the podcast and send that screen shot in as well. 1st place will be $275, 2nd place will be $125, 3rd place will be $75 and 4th will be $25. Get your brackets in by Thursday before the 1st game at 12AM Eastern, 9AM Pacific! Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament!
Today Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev and Shawn @TheGreatKnoche discuss the NCAA Tournament! Which teams have it easier and which have it hard? Which teams should not have gotten in and which teams got screwed? What types of bracket games are there for play? We also have some FREE PLAYS that Shawn and Kiev gave out during the show!
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Portland at New Orleans -2 (O/U 221.5) 7:00pm ET
Things might look a little different Sunday night when these two teams take the court. The Pelicans went into Portland and beat them just 11 days ago, Simons only played for a short time and left the game and Nurkic still was not back yet. Well, Nurkic is back, Simons was tremendous two nights ago in his true comeback game, and the Blazers come into tonight in a huge revenge spot. The Pels have won the last 4 out of 5 in this series, but Simons/Nurkic were vacant in 3 of the 4 losses.
Now comes the elephant in the room, Dame is out and can they perform with out him. Surprisingly they have held their own without him. If you talk to me, you know my opinion. “When the true stars miss a game, the other guys step up.” It’s all mental, the guys around him play in the NBA, they’re good enough in the NBA and their best characters appear when truly needed.
Yes this is game 6 of a 6 game road trip, but due to injuries some of the starters are all actually well rested. The Blazers have played good ball as of late IMO. Winners in 2 of 5, but more importantly playing the 76ers down to the wire in a game they most definitely could have won. With the 3 losses coming against three strong Eastern Conference playoff teams.
The Pelicans on the other hand are reeling quickly, comparable to a caught fish on the verge of extinction. Now one game out of the play-in bracket, Zion is still not on the court and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. Also New Orleans will be playing its 2nd straight game without high % shooter Brandon Ingram. This is a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me. Let’s go BLAZERS!
Trail Blazers +2 (BetRivers -110) 2 units
Trail Blazers ML +110 (BetRivers) 0.5 unit
New York at LA Lakers -2.5 (O/U 226) 9:00pm ET
There is an abundance of indicators for this to be a low scoring affair. Like I stated in my previous article, the Lakers have improved tremendously since the All-Star break. Mostly in the defensive categories. While they still do run at a high pace, it hasn’t really shown up on the scoreboard. Mostly because they’re unable to shoot at a high rate. Yes I know they came off a game where they shot 56%(field) and 43%(3’s), but that was against Toronto who my local high school team would be able to score against right now. Previous to that in their last 6 games, minus the Golden State game since they have just completely quit playing defense. The Lake show has shot 44% in those 5 games.
Now let’s discuss the Knicks, they are playing their 6th game in 10 days, with 5 of them being on the road in 4 different cities. Fatigue was stated by Josh Hart in a recent interview and it surely has shown. Averaging 105 points a game in their last 3, while shooting an incompetent 36%. Brunson will miss his 2nd straight game, leaving the Knicks without their signal caller.
New York has gone under 3 straight, also staying under on the road in 4 of 6. While the Lakers have gone under 4 of 5 at home, also 6 of 9 with 1 pushing. I will land on the under here.
