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San Antonio at Charlotte -5.5 (O/U 242)
Many would look at this game and ask, how the heck could Charlotte be 5.5 point favorites vs ANYONE. The answer in two words, San Antonio. Yes both teams have been bad this season, but one is somewhat competitive, the other not necessarily. The resurgence of Gordon Hayward has surely improved matters, scoring 47 points in the last two games, dishing out 11 assists and 4 steals.
The Hornets ended their 7 game losing streak this past Monday vs Atlanta with their highest offensive output of the season, scoring 144 points, while shooting 63% from the field. This is good news for the Hornets who face a Spur team who give up 51% shooting. It looks like the Hornets will be without Rozier tonight, look for Dennis Smith to have an expanded role in the offense, in return we get a reduced line on Charlotte. Works for me!
Charlotte is 6-8 ATS in their last 14, going 3-2 ATS at home with outright wins in all three vs Atlanta, Chicago and Miami. I know it might not look that impressive to some, but their recent form towers over a San Antonio club who is completely reeling. Before Monday’s game in Cleveland where they covered as 16 point dogs, they failed to cover in 11 straight and are 11-27 ATS as 5-12 point dogs. They seem to struggle with everyone, sporting a record of just 2-9 vs teams under .500 on the road. The Spurs just don’t seem to play the underdog role very well.
This Spurs offense averages over 15 turnovers a game, while Charlotte ranks 8th and 10th in the TO category. I think turnovers could be a big factor tonight, leading to more opportunities on the offensive end for Charlotte. Look for the Hornets to win by many tonight!
Hornets -5.5 (BetRivers -110) 3 units
Good luck to everyone if tailing, let’s get this 3 unit play HOME!
Another night, another disrespectful line for Northwestern. I don’t view this as a great spot for Indiana having to play their 2nd straight road game and coming off an emotional win at Michigan. Moreso, I don’t like this matchup for Indiana’s offense at all.
Indiana is an efficient jump-shooting team, but they attempt the 16th fewest 3’s in the country; on Saturday, they attempted just 6 three-pointers at Michigan. You can beat Northwestern from the outside, but you are going to have a tough time beating them as you get closer to the basket. The Wildcats rank 17th in opponent 2pt FG% and block 4.5 shots per game. Northwestern also forces nearly 14.5 turnovers per game, while Indiana can get a little sloppy with the basketball(144th in turnovers/game).
Northwestern does not have good overall shooting numbers, and in particular, they have shot 26.5% from deep over their last 5 games. With that said, Indiana has struggled mightily to defend the 3 on the road this season, allowing over 35% from beyond the arc in this role. Indiana has a strong 2pt defense that Chris Collins knows his guys can’t beat, but given Northwestern ranks in the Top 20% of the country in 3pt attempts, I think Northwestern will play this matchup correctly. All we need is a semi-decent shooting night from Northwestern here.
We’ve already seen the Wildcats beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this year, and as a kicker, the Wildcats hold a 3.5% advantage at the Foul Line in what’s sure to be a down-to-the-wire game. I like Indiana in a lot of roles, but this isn’t one of them; similarly, I think this Northwestern team continues to be undervalued despite consistently showing they’re a legit tournament team.
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Orlando at Toronto -7.5 (O/U 221.5)
Yes I have stated in the past I don’t buy into the Magic hype, but as sports bettors you must prepare to change your opinion quickly or get left in the dust. Realizing you have made a mistake analyzing a team I believe is a huge part of success and many have trouble admitting it. Well I was WRONG!
This Magic team plays a hard brand of defense, gets to the free throw line quite often and has a little edge to them. All qualities of a winning basketball team. With that said, they head to Toronto on a back-to-back, where quite honestly their record is not good straight up. They’re 1-9 SU, but 5-5 ATS. This tells me they come to play, just come up a little short. The Magic are 5-3 in their last 8, with wins vs Denver, at Philadelphia and at Minnesota, all while winning those five as 4, 5, 2, 5.5 and 9.5 point dogs. They seem to relish this role! In those 8 games, they have given up on average 106 points a game, which is not good news for Toronto shooting 46% in their last 5. When they played twice at Orlando in December, the Raptors shot 40 and 42% from the field. With the Magic winning both.
Toronto is 2-5 ATS in their last 7, with wins vs Detroit, San Antonio and Houston, yikes! They are also 1-6 ATS last 7 on 1 days rest, as well as 8-14 vs teams under .500.
Like I said, Orlando embraces the underdog role, going 18-9-1 as 5-9.5 point underdogs. I’m all over the Magic tonight, lets even sprinkle in a light ML play.
Magic +7.5 (Barstool -108) 1.75 units
Magic ML+245 (Barstool) 0.25 unit
Washington at Portland -1.5 (O/U 236)
Both teams will enter tonight on back-to-backs, with one nearly setting a franchise record in 3’s(23 to be exact) and the other looking for revenge. Fresh on their minds, the Wizards blew a 20 point lead in Washington just 11 days ago vs this Blazer team. Since then have gone 2-3, with losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Golden State. As well as losing Kyle Kuzma, with him missing the last 3 games. Ironically they have averaged close to 125 points in the three, while shooting a red hot 58% from the field. This is good news for the Wizards, since Portland ranks 26th defensively in FG%, giving up 52% shooting in their last 5 games.
In their previous match-up Simons hit 9 three pointers, he had a 4 game span of hitting 5, 3, 9 and 5 in those games. Since then he has hit 1, 2, 1 and 2. Yes Lilliard could go off at any time, but without Simons production they will have a hard time staying with Washington tonight. While Washington ranks in the middle of the pack vs 3’s, it will be a point of emphasis to stop Anfernee tonight.
The Blazers are 8-13 ATS in non-conference games, and 1-4-1 at home ATS in their last 6. I still love the Wizards record on 0 days rest of 7-3, they come ready to play. Don’t forget Washington can shoot it from beyond as well, averaging 39.5% from 3 in their last 5. I don’t beleive Portland’s success will continue beyond the arc, which is why I’m all over the Wizards tonight!
Washington +1.5 (BetMGM -110) 1.25 units
Good luck to all those if tailing, lets keep HOT February going!
I am simply not a believer in Illinois, especially in sleepy road games. Despite shooting 31.5% from deep, Illinois hacks up the 31st most 3’s per game in the country. Brad Underwood has done a poor job of playing to his offenses’ strengths, and the fact he hasn’t adapted this deep into the season is mind-boggling.
Illinois is very good on the other end of the floor, but this Penn State offense is no joke. The Nittany Lions have shot nearly 39% from 3 this season and take care of the basketball at the 3rd best rate in the country. This is a team that DOES play to their strengths, ranking 8th in 3pt attempts per game. Micah Shrewsberry knows his team can’t match up with Illinois’ physicality on the inside, but he has the pure shotmakers to combat that.
There are 3 intangibles I like about this matchup. First, we’ve seen Penn State take advantage of this matchup before; they beat the Illini by 15 in Champagne earlier in the season. Secondly, Penn State has stepped up well in these home spots all year, already notching wins over Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa on their home floor. Lastly, Penn State is the most experienced team in the country, while Illinois is one of the youngest teams in the Big10.
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55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
55.5% for 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
In the spirit of Cupid, lets give out some plays that we love!
LSU vs Georgia -4 O/U 137.5
This is an under the radar SEC game that I think has some good value. This line might be a little short due to folks thinking that the Bulldogs are in a let down spot from beating Kentucky at home. Are they really in a let down spot? The Bulldogs are 15-10 with wins vs Auburn, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. They have a shot to be on the bubble of the NCAA tournament. Had they not, this might be more of a fade spot. Georgia isn’t the best shooting team ranking 294th in effective FG%, but they at least are 49.2% at home, and they paly solid defense ranking 67th in opponent effective FG% at 47.7. LSU on the other hand hasn’t won a game since December 28th vs an injured Arkansas team. They are out of the NCAA tournament no mater what they do. They rank 299th in effective FG% on offense and 209th on defense. Matt McMahon hasn’t shown that his team can step up on the raod being that they still haven’t won an away game all year long. LSU at least has South Carolina on deck where they might get a win finally, but there is a chance that they have given up when on the road. I will gladly take the Bulldogs here who rank 116th on Kenpom at home against an LSU team who ranks 132nd.
Georgia -4 – 3 stars
Nebraska vs Rutgers -13 O/U 130
This game screams Rutgers at home against a lower tiered big 10 team, but I am not so sure. How many points do we need to give a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 290th in effective FG% at 48.1% and 240th in adjusted Tempo? Nebraska isn’t a good basketball team, but they at least rank 59th in opponent efficiency and they are decent near the rim ranking 47th in near proximity shots. Rutgers is without one of their best defenders in Mawot Mag which could throw a wrench into their blow-out plans. I will take my chances with the points.
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Brooklyn at NY Knicks -2.5 (O/U 220)
The vibe in New York and at the Madison Square Garden is as high as ever. This team is vibrant, energetic and it is contagious. This Knick team is having fun and bringing in Josh Hart is exactly what they needed, a high 3pt % shooting, outspoken, shooting guard who plays hard on both ends!
Yes I know the narrative, Brooklyn has beaten the Knicks 9 straight times. They have heard this for 2 days in the Big Apple and quite some time before that. No Harden, no Durant, no Irving, this new look Brooklyn team could have trouble with this high flying, fast New York club.
Brooklyn’s last three games they have failed to shoot over 43% from the field. Now they have to face a Knick team who might not necessarily force a lot of turnovers, but they’re extremely good at holding teams to low shooting percentages. What New York does do well, Brooklyn basically doesn’t. The Knicks are top five offensively in turnovers, free-throw attempts and offensive rebounds. While Brooklyn ranks 20th, 26th and 26th in those categories.
The Knicks winners of 3 of 4, have shown they can win both types of games, high scoring and low scoring defensive games. Three of their last nine outcomes have been determined by overtime, and this team has shown a fight in every single one of them. I believe the Knicks end that streak tonight and end the narrative of losing to Brooklyn.
Knicks -2.5 (BetRivers -110) 1 unit
Washington at Golden State -4 (O/U 233.5)
Golden State comes off two, as in Steve Kerr put it “frustrating games.” Lilliard scored 33 points off of 16 free throws in Portland last Wednesday. 3 days later they lose at home to a LeBron-less Lakers, in a poor shooting performance, shooting only 42% from the field and 27% from three.
Luckily, they face a Washington team who has had it struggles defensively as of late, giving up over 13 three-pointers a game. I think the Wizards are vastly improved this season, but I don’t believe they are at Golden States level yet. While Washington is 5-3 in their last eight games, 3 of those wins have come across bottom, feeder teams Houston, San Antonio and Charlotte. While the other two are vs struggling Indiana and New Orleans.
I believe Golden State will show its class tonight and take care of business at home.
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Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Kansas City vs Philadelphia -1 O/U 50.5
Well, the league seemed to have gotten what they wanted with Kansas City vs Philadelphia. We have two of the top four teams in the league facing off in the big game! A few narratives for both of these teams remain true. The Eagles had a cake walk getting here getting the seventh seed at home, and playing the 49ers without a quarterback. Kansas City played a very hard fought game with the victory assisted and helped secured courtesy of the Ron Torbert officiating crew (not saying they necessarily would have lost) as well as some fumble luck vs Jacksonville. In saying that, this doesn’t mean that these two teams aren’t great. I have the Eagles as my 2nd best team in my power ratings behind Cincinnati while the Chiefs are tied for third with the 49ers.
Lets look at how these two teams matchup. On the ground, both the Eagles and the Chiefs average 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, but the Chiefs allow 4.5 opponent rushing yards per attempt to the Eagles at 4.6. Slight advantage Chiefs. Through the air, the Chiefs are number one in drop-back EPA to the Eagles at number seven, but the Eagles are number one in opponent drop-back EPA to the Chiefs at number 16. Advantage Eagles. The birds are also number one in opponent passing yards per attempt at 5.4 to the Chiefs at number six at 6.1.
The Chiefs are +1.1 net yards per play to the Eagles at .9, but the Eagles are the more efficient team on offense at 13.4 yards per point to the Chiefs at 14.2. Close to a push if you ask me. The Chiefs have had the harder strength of schedule ranking 9th to the Eagles at 29th, and I have to factor that in some, but I also think that the NFL didn’t have all that much parody this year being that the NFC East was much better than the AFC West as a whole.
What I find is that the Chiefs path to victory is running the ball with Isaiah Pacheco, but as you could see last week, rushing only worked some of the time for a great rush team like the 49ers. Since week 9, the Eagles have improved their opponent rush EPA to 12th while the Chiefs regressed to 20th. Stopping Christian Jones will be a big task for the Birds, but the Eagles have the 6th ranked offensive line.
Even though our NFL 2022 MVP looks ok for now, we still can’t forget the Patrick Mahomes ankle injury. The kid is a warrior, but the Eagles pass rush ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate, number two in pressure rate, and number one in total sacks. I don’t think that the refs are going to allow all the holding that they did during the Bengals vs Chiefs AFC conference game, and especially with a flag throwing official like Carl Cheffers crew who calls the second most amount of penalties compared to the rest of the NFL officials per game. We also have to worry about all of the injuries to the Chiefs secondary with L’Jarious Sneed questionable and LB Willy Gay banged up. WRS Kadarious Tony and JuJu Smith-Schuster who aren’t listed as injured due to the big game, left last week’s conference title game due to injuries as well.
The Eagles are 3rd in offensive EPA and 4th on defensive EPA, the Chiefs are 1st and 15th in those categories respectively. The Eagles are just the more efficient team. With the injuries, the path to the Super Bowl, the metrics that I had just broken down, and the overall offensive and defensive efficiency, I have to go with the Eagles to win this game 27-24. I also think both teams have some nerves during the 1st half and will start out slowly. Take the Birds with a potential hedge back as well as the 1st half under.
Eagles -1 – 3 stars – If the Eagles are up at least 9 points at any point, hedge back at Chiefs +6 or better for 1.5 stars.
Here are some prop plays that back up my super bowl story. I truly believe that this game will focus more on the tight ends, and the running backs more than the wide receivers. The game usually stars out pretty slow being that both coaches won’t be careless with the ball. The second half usually outscores the 1st half in this game due to the desperation. I think that we can find some value playing some on both sides and cash no matter which team wins!
No points scored in the 1st 5 minutes -225 – .5 stars
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Let’s continue this heater in February, with our 3 unit play absolutely crushing last night! Articles are up +6.10 units on the month, with a record of 15-8-1!
Denver at Charlotte +8.5 (O/U 237.5)
Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone said, “We’re not playing hard enough.” As well as “Hopefully against Charlotte, we can find a way to play with a lot more effort, play with a lot more urgency.”
Essentially the HC called out his Nugget team to stop taking teams lightly. Losing at Orlando two nights ago by quite a margin due to, lack of effort. I expect a big effort tonight in Charlotte, Denver is 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss. The Nuggets are 1-8 away vs teams under .500, which in my opinion is more of a reason to play Denver tonight!
Charlotte is playing on back-to-back nights, playing 5 of their last 6 games away, as well as 11 of 16 away. They gave up 25 3’s vs Boston last night, that is not a good sign for the Hornets. With Denver ranking 1st offensively in FG and 3 point %, as well as 2nd in assists per game.
In Charlotte’s last 12 games being 7.5 point dogs or more, they are 3-9 ATS. They are in shreds right now, just trying to get through the season, losing and not covering in their last 5. I believe nothing changes tonight, so I’ll be backing Denver in the 1st half as well as the game.
1H: Nuggets -4.5 (BetMGM -110) 1.5 units
Nuggets -8.5 (Barstool -108) 0.75 unit
Utah at NY Knicks -6 (O/U 228.5)
This is a rare game where you have both teams playing back to backs, while playing different teams the night before. This is certainly foreign territory for the Utah Jazz, only playing 3 games away from Salt Lake in their last 14 and their 1st back to back in different cities since December 20th. The Jazz come off a comeback win in Toronto, being down 14 at one point, but were able to hold Toronto to 20 4th quarter points.
This Utah squad doesn’t exactly play a whole lot of defense, giving up 123 points a game in their last 7. Now facing a Knicks team who can get hot from the field, when they do look out! The Jazz desperately missed Clarkson last night, shooting as a team 6/24 from 3 point land. While he might come back tonight, they will need him and a lot more. What comes with is a player who turns the ball over consistently averaging almost 3 a game and 4 of his last 9 committing 4+. Utah ranks 25th in the league in TO’s, averaging 15.1 per game, this does not bode well facing a Knick team who ranks 4th in the league in forced TO’s.
The Knicks enter this game winning 5 of their last 9, with home wins vs Miami, Cleveland and Philly. As 6 point favorites or more, they are 5-1 ATS their last six games. When they’re heavier favorites they tend to take care of business. They have too much speed for Utah and play a pressuring defense, ranking 3rd defensively in FG%. They have rebounded the heck out of the ball recently, out-rebounding their last 7 of 9 opponents. Now face a Jazz team who have given up 14.6 offensive rebounds a game in their last 5.
Knicks -6 (FanDuel -110) 1.75 units
San Antonio at Atlanta -13.5 (O/U 240)
This young Spurs team of quite honestly no-names, head to Atlanta Saturday night to face the Hawks. San Antonio came off an OT loss in Detroit last night, while the Pistons caliber may not be as high as Atlanta these kids tried hard all the way to the buzzer. I found this stat interesting, they rank 4th in offensive assists per game. This shows me good coaching, and that the kids will listen. The proof is in the pudding.
I think this will be an up and down the court game tonight, with these two teams ranking 5th and 10th in pace. The Hawks have been scoring a plethora of points for a while, averaging 117 in their last 10, north of 115 in 6 of 9. Not good for the Spurs who give up 122.7 points a game, rank 30th in field goals made, as well as 3 point %. San Antonio is 5-3-1 to the over on back to back’s, with 5 straight overs. Giving up an average of 126 points defensively in each!
San Antonio is 16-9-1 to the over in away games, with 13 of their last 16 going over. As double digit dogs, the over is 8-1 their last 9. Atlanta comes into this game when 7 point favorites or more, the over is 6-1.
