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College Basketball Saturday Super Plays 3/11/23 – Sports Betting

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Duke vs Virginia +2.5 O/U 123

Things are looking a little different here with this Blue Devils team.   At one point they were overrated with injuries to Roach and Dariq Whitehead in the heart of the season, but now I think this team is poised to cut down the Nets.  Virginia is a solid team this year but not championship caliber.  They only shoot 51.7% effective FG% and their free throws are god awful at 69.9%.   Duke on the other hand has improved their game drastically and they actually play some defense this year ranking 31st in defensive efficiency and believe it or not, 12th in total rebounds.   Virginia ranks 300th in total rebounds which won’t bode well for a team that can’t shoot all that well.   Since the third week of January, Bart Torvik ranks Duke 18th in efficiency and Virginia is at 42.  7’0 Kyle Filipowski has been an absolute beast down low.   Grab Duke on the money-line.

Duke PK -135 – 3 stars

Xavier vs Marquette -1.5 O/U 154.5

Bravo Xavier.  You made the title game and shocked the world by beating Creighton.   Let’s face it though, you jumped this team going up over 20 points in the first half and ended up coasting the rest of the way.   Marquette proved something to me yesterday.  They can play on both sides of the ball as well as score from deep.   Scoring from deep is the key here.   Both of these teams rank in the top 9 in effective FG%, but on defense, Xavier allows 52.2% away from home while Marquette is at about 50.1%.   We also have to remember that Xavier is still without their best player in Zach Freemantle who was injured vs Creighton in late January and is out for the season.   This will affect their rebounding the ball which is so important in these big games.   Take Marquette as the short favorite.

Marquette -1.5 – 2 stars

Back this Blue Group of Freshman

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Duke vs UNC +2 (O/U 123.5) 8:30pm ET

Sweet revenge. This will be on the Blue Devils mind heading into their semi final match-up with Virginia Saturday night. When they played at UVA just about a month ago, they had the game in their hands for most of it, until roughly the 5 minute mark where the Cavs used an 8-0 run to take the lead. It would then go on to OT where UVA would streak away late. A game they definitely want back, but the ironic part is they held 7’0 foot freshman sensation Filipowski to ZERO points. That loss was the start, the start to their recent resurgence, winning 8 straight. With Filipowski averaging almost 17 points a game during this win streak. They have shown no signs of slowing down, shooting 52.7% in the ACC tournament, while averaging 90 points a game in the two contests.

Now I know many say, the ACC doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. Well their right, it’s pretty rough. The Cavaliers have faced exactly that as of late, facing L’ville X2, UNC X2, Clemson X2, Notre Dame and BC. A tier of schools who rank mostly low defensively. Virginia can go in scoring droughts, we just haven’t seen it recently due to lack of opponents. Well now they face the Dukies! In their last 5 Duke has given up 39.7/29.8% shooting, with only 10 assists per game. The Cavs haven’t seen this type of defense in some time, and I believe Duke’s defense will get them to the finish line. Not to mention this group of mostly freshmen, have grown together as a unit and matured over the last 4 weeks.

This will be a UNIT UPGRADE for me on the Blue Devils!

Duke -2 (Barstool -110) 1.5 units

To anyone tailing, let’s CRUSH this game together!

Podcast 19 – 23 – Kiev O’Neil goes solo – College Basketball March 11th – Sports Betting

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We have an great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil dives into some of the big upsets in the conference tournaments and talks about the early lines with some Free Plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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A Late Night NBA Play, as we head to LA

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Toronto at LA Lakers +2.5 (O/U 224.5) 10:30pm ET

The Lakers have vastly improved since the All-Star break, specifically in one category, defensively. Granted, they really don’t have any signature wins, but you can only beat what they put in front of you. Winning 5 of their last 7 games since the break, as well as winning 5 of their last 6 home games. Keep in mind they have been Lebron-less in their last 3, but still finding ways to win. The ‘Brow’ has definitely stepped up into that dynamic role, averaging 33 points a game in his L5. Even with a bloody nose after getting a right hook from David Roddy Wednesday, he came back in and led them to victory.

Now for their defense, they have averaged 110.7 points a game since the break, which drops to 107 a game at home. Also only giving up 42.7% shooting in those seven. I like the fact they’re 9-4 ATS as short dogs, this spot fits them perfectly. As well as 7-4 ATS on 2 days rest, or what I call the extra day. They have seemed to perform well vs lower level competition, going 16-7 ATS vs teams under .500.

Toronto is playing 7 of 8 away, and as good as there offense has looked at ‘times’, they’re only averaging 102.5 points a game. They have lost 5 of 7, and teams are shooting all over them at over 52% a game since the break, and quite honestly a high % most of the season.

In the midst of a tight playoff race, every game is a must win all the way out for the Lake show. I think Toronto’s rough schedule catches up with them tonight, and they will run out of gas. Providing the Lakers with their 3rd straight win.

Lakers +2.5 (Caesars -110) 1.2 units

Good luck to anyone if you’re tailing, I’m BACK!

College Basketball Friday Freedom – Sports Betting

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Penn State vs Northwestern PK O/U 130.5

Let’s try this again.  Northwestern must hate their home court because they lost to teams like Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State but for some reason when they leave their friendly confines of Evansville Illinois, they are 8-3 ATS as an away team.  Northwestern isn’t the greatest shooting team in the Big 10 ranking 309th in effective FG%, but they at least do not turn over the ball ranking 21st in turnovers.   The Wildcats win on defense ranking 19th in overall defensive efficiency.   Penn State is quite the opposite.  The Nittany Lions rank 15th in offensive efficiency and 125th on defense.  They shoot the three ball well ranking 7th in the nation, but they can’t defense it all that well.   Don’t get me wrong, Penn State has done well for themselves this season led by Jalen Pickett who will be playing at the next level, but Northwestern should be able to slow him down this time with Chase Audige on him who is a very experienced and motivated senior.   I trust the defense to travel to Indianapolis more than the offense of Penn State.   Northwestern ranks 24th in away from home splits while Penn State ranks 310th.  Take the Cats but if the opportunity to hedge presents itself, I would also try for a middle.

Northwestern PK – 2 stars

 

NHL Preview & Picks – March 9th, 2023

We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Pick(s):

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Buffalo Sabres/ Dallas Stars over 6.5 (-104) – Barstool

The Stars have been on a roll offensively scoring at least four goals per game in each of their last five games. They’ve also been sub-par defensively in their last ten games allowing an average of 3.10 goals against. Buffalo has been better offensively at home this year averaging 3.69 GF/G but worse defensively allowing 3.81 GA/G. Jake Oettinger who is confirmed for Dallas tonight hasn’t been in great form allowing three or more goals in three of his last five games. Eric Comrie, who’s opposite of him tonight has allowed at least three goals against in each of his past three starts. This game feels like a track meet especially with Buffalo trying to make a playoff push. The only way they’ve been able to win games this season is by scoring at least three or four which is what I’m expecting tonight. Dallas’ talented offensive core should also be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s weak defensive unit so I see this game going over the total tonight.

  • Boston Bruins in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings

There’s not much debate about who’s the best team in the NHL currently. The Bruins have been on a record-setting pace this season and only improved at the trade deadline with some new acquisitions. They’ve won each of their last ten games and are one of the few teams that can match the Oilers’ offensive production. They’re also one of the teams that can shut down the Oilers as we’ve seen in their previous matchup this year. While the Oilers have been better as of late, I think Boston stays hot at home this season.

  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-139) – Barstool

The Penguins have struggled against the Islanders this season losing each of their three previous matchups. Both of these teams are in a wild card battle in the Eastern Conference with only one point separating them. New York’s won both of their last two games against inferior opponents outscoring them 7-3. Pittsburgh’s been on a hot streak of their own winning five of their last six. They’re also coming off a comeback win against the Blue Jackets where they were down 4-0 at one point. The Penguins have been great on home ice this season with a 17-9-4 record while New York’s been sub-par on the road with a 13-14-5 record. Based on the recent play of each side I think Pittsburgh avoids the season sweep and moves ahead of New York in the playoff standings with a win tonight.

  • New Jersey Devils (-140) – Caesars

We have a tale of two stories tonight between New Jersey and Washington. The Devils have won seven of their past eleven games while the Capitals have lost eight of their last eleven. New Jersey’s in great form right now offensively scoring over three goals in each of their last six games. While they haven’t been as great defensively they’ve been able to rely on their offensive production to propel them to wins. Washington’s issues have also stemmed from their defensive play is an issue tonight. I expect New Jersey to stay hot and use their fast pace of play to defeat Washington tonight.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Vince Dunn over 0.5 Points (-122) – FanDuel
    • Vince Dunn has gone over this number in each of his last seven games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last three games. He’s also on the Kraken’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Ottawa has taken multiple penalties in each of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Senators, Dunn recorded over 0.5 points each time.
  • Vladimir Tarasenko over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
    • Vladimir Tarasenko has gone over this number in three of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last two games. He’s also on the Ranger’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight. In his three previous matchups against the Canadiens, Tarasenko recorded over 0.5 points each time.
  • Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 Points (-132) – FanDuel
    • Patrice Bergeron has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his previous four games. He’s also on the Bruins’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Edmonton has taken multiple penalties in each of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Oilers, Bergeron recorded over 0.5 points twice.
  • Jeff Skinner over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings
    • Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five games. He’s also on the Sabres’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight as Dallas has taken multiple penalties in each of their last five games.
  • Brent Burns over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
    • Brent Burns has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five games. He’s also on the Hurricanes’ top Power Play which should see some action tonight. In his four previous matchups against the Flyers, Burns recorded over 0.5 points three times.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Thursday, March 9th CBB Free Play

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*CBB(1u): Auburn +3 vs Arkansas–6 PM CT

This is a very even matchup in a lot of respects; these are two very disruptive defensives that thrive on the ball, and each team struggles greatly to make outside shots. I’ll also concede that Arkansas does a better job of playing to their strengths offensively and avoiding bad shot selection. However, the intangible aspects of this matchup were enough to get me on the Tigers at this number.

Auburn is one of the most experienced teams in CBB, while Arkansas is one of the youngest. Arkansas will put a lot of the load on freshman guard Nick Smith Jr down the stretch of the game, while Auburn features an array of chiseled veterans. You can say this doesn’t matter, but I would vehemently disagree.

These are also two very foul-happy defenses, so I think FT shooting will matter as much in this matchup as perhaps any I’ve bet this season. Auburn holds a near 1.5% edge in this department, and I think the experience factor plays to our favor here as well.

We saw the Tigers win comfortably vs Arkansas earlier in the season, and I saw some “buy signs” in Saturday’s win over Tennessee. We can run through all the numbers(most of which will be even), but this handicap is as simple as you can’t give Auburn 3 points here considering the intangibles of this matchup.

College Basketball Thirsty Thursday 3/9/23 Free Play – Sports Betting

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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Ole Miss vs Tennessee -11.5 O/U 127.5

Tennessee won the SEC tournament in 2022.   Is that sustainable?   I am not sure, but what I do know is that Tennessee hasn’t exactly been goon away from home.   The Vols rank 359th in their away from home metric compared to 70th for Ole Miss.   Both teams are quite defensively oriented hence the big move to the under from 130 to 127.5.   A few things that I do like about Ole miss is their block % is decent at 51%.   The Vols are good at rebounding the ball ranking 14th in the nation, and all but Ole Miss is half way decent ranking 129th in the nation as well.   The Vols average 71.9 points per game to Ole Miss at 67.9, but when Tennessee is away from home, they only shoot 46.6%.   The Rebels are pretty close at 46.3%.   We cannot forget the X factor here that Tennessee has lost their point guard and second leading scorer in Zakai Ziegler to injury and will struggle with turnovers as well as running their offense.   Who would you rather back?  A dog trying to improve his meal, or a dog fighting for his life?   Take Ole Miss plus the points.

Ole Miss +11.5 – 2 stars

Podcast 18 – 23 – With Erik Haslam – College Basketball March 9th – Bracketology – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have an great show for you today!  Eric Haslam from Haslametrics comes on to break down some MARCH MADNESS!  First, Kiev talks about some promotions and our NCAA tournament challenge coming up next month!  Next, Eric comes on and the guys get right into Haslametrics and how it is different from other NCAAB efficiency sites.  Then, Eric and Kiev get into some bracketology with his 1s and 2 seeds as well as some bubble teams.   After that, the guys talk about some of the big tournaments going on and who they each think could win.  Finally, Kiev talks some NCAA basketball games for Thursday!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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College Basketball Conference Tournament Wednesday Play – Sports Betting

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

Only $150 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

44% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Colorado vs Washington +3.5 O/U 138.5

Gotta love March Madness, but one thing that definitely seems like Madness is having Colorado favored over Washington.   Now the Huskies, aren’t exactly the best shooting team ranking 265th in offensive efficiency, but they do play some defense ranking 34th in opponent effective FG%, and 65th in overall efficiency.  Colorado on the other hand also plays good defense ranking 52nd in opponent effective FG% and 17th in defensive efficiency, but they also can’t shoot well ranking 277th in effective FG% and 140th in overall efficiency due to decent rebounding.  Their are two big problems that I have with Colorado as a favorite here.   One, they are terrible from the charity stripe ranking 280th in FT%, and two, they rank 329th in their away from home metric.  Washington at least ranks 70th in free throws and 39th away from home.   These two teams played once during the regular season in Colorado with the Huskies getting a 75-72 victory over the Buffaloes.  I expect a close game and a cover from Washington today.

Washington +3.5 – 2 stars