Max Homa (25-1) comes back from five strokes on Saturday to capture the Farmers Insurance Open! He gained over eight strokes on the entire field and picked up his sixth career PGA Tour victory. This gives us our second outright of 2023 after Si Woo Kim (50-1) won the Sony Open earlier this month. In addition to Homa, Jason Day (+115) and Luke List (+110) finished inside their respective placements.
We now move on to the AT&T Pebble Back Pro-Am where we cashed Tom Hoge at 60-1 last year. This is the third consecutive week that the PGA Tour will use a multi-course rotation. Players will have one round from Thursday to Saturday at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The final round will conclude at Pebble Beach on Sunday. In terms of the strength of the field, it is pretty weak with Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth headlining the event. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has 10 players in the top 50 competing this week while the Saudi International has 21 of the top 50 players in the field. Following this week we’ll see back-to-back ‘elevated’ events which should draw some of the bigger names due to the $20 Million prize pool.
General Tournament Information:
- Dates: February 2nd, 2023- February 5th, 2023
- Location: Pebble Beach, California, United States
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Thursday – Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Spyglass Hill
- Monterey Peninsula Country Club
- Sunday: Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Thursday – Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- Field/ Cut: 156 Pros & 156 Amateurs | Top 65 and Ties – 54 Holes
- Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,620,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
Pebble Beach Golf Links (2 Rounds)
- Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Course Architect: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919)
- Course Type: Coastal
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 6,972 yards
- Greens: Poa annua
- Fairways: Ryegrass / Poa annua
- Rough: Ryegrass / Poa annua
- Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
- Bunkers: 116
- Water Hazards:1 (Ocean)
- Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft.
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 70.76 (-1.24), Rank 35 of 50
- 2021: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 29 of 51
- 2020: 72.52 (+0.52), Rank 8 of 41
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (6,972 Yards):
- Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) – 7,005 Yards – RSM Classic
- El Camaleón – 7,017 Yards – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- Comparable Greens (Poa annua):
- Spyglass Hill GC – Poa annua .100” – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Riviera CC – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational
- Comparable Average Green Size (3,500 sq. ft.):
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 3,700 sq. ft. – RBC Heritage
Spyglass Hill (1 Round)
- Course: Spyglass Hill
- Course Architect: Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1966)
- Renovations: Tom Fazio, Pebble Beach Company
- Course Type: Coastal
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,041 yards
- Greens: Poa annua .100’
- Fairways: Perennial rye/Poa annua .425”
- Rough: Perennial rye/Poa annua 2”
- Stimpmeter: 10.0 feet
- Bunkers: 62
- Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 72.18 (+0.18), Rank 16 of 50
- 2021: 72.79 (+0.79), Rank 11 of 51
- 2020: 72.88 (+0.88), Rank 5 of 41
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,041 Yards):
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 7,041 Yards – ZOZO Championship
- Waialae Country Club – 7,044 Yards – Sony Open
- Comparable Greens (Poa annua .100’):
- Riviera CC – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational
- Torrey Pines (South Course) – Poa annua .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
- Torrey Pines (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
- Muirfield Village Golf Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – the Memorial Tournament
- TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship
Monterey Peninsula Country Club (1 Round)
- Course: Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore)
- Course Architect: Robert Baldock (1960)
- Renovation: Mike Strantz (2003)
- Course Type: Coastal
- Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 6,957 yards
- Greens: Poa annua .120”
- Fairways: Bentgrass / fescue .350”
- Rough: Ryegrass 1.75’
- Stimpmeter: 12.0 feet
- Bunkers: 130
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 5 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 70.10 (-0.90), Rank 31 of 50
- 2021: DNP
- 2020: 69.69 (-1.31), Rank 30 of 41
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (6,957 Yards):
- Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) – 7,005 Yards – RSM Classic
- El Camaleón – 7,017 Yards – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- Comparable Greens (Poa annua .120”):
- Riviera CC – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational
- Torrey Pines (South Course) – Poa annua .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (6,000 sq. ft.):
- Torrey Pines (North Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
- Corales Golf Course – 6,000 sq. ft. – Corales Puntacana Championship
- Sedgefield Country Club – 6,000 sq. ft. – Wyndham Championship
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, February 2nd, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
- Round 2: Friday, February 3rd, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
- Round 3: Saturday, February 4th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 4: Sunday, February 5th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
- CBS – 3:00 PM -6:30 PM
- Thursday: Cloudy 54 F, 10 mp/h S, 61% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Showers 52 F, 7 mp/h ESE, 73% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: PM Showers 54 F,10 mp/h S, 79% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Showers 50 F, 14 mp/h WNW, 74% Humidity, 60% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Tournament was founded back in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur. In 1986, the AT&T Corporation became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. The tournament has rotated between several courses throughout its history but has stuck with the current three since 2010. In 2019, the U.S. Open was hosted at Pebble Beach with Gary Woodland coming away victorious.
The starting field consists of 156 professionals and 156 amateurs. Some of the notable amateurs this year include Bill Murray, Josh Allen (who’s skipping the Pro Bowl), Aaron Rodgers, Gareth Bale, and Jason Bateman. On the first three days, the 156 two-man teams will play a better ball format while the pros also play an individual stroke format. On Sunday, the field will be cut to the top 65 low scorers and the low 25 teams.
In 2021, they shortened the course rotation to Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Along with other events that feature a Pro-Am format, they did not have any amateurs participate due to the pandemic.
- 72-Hole Record:
- 265, Brandt Snedeker (2015)
- 18-Hole Record (Pebble Beach Golf Links):
- 62, Tom Kite (Round 3, 1983), David Duval (Round 3, 1997), Patrick Cantlay (Round 1, 2021), Matthias Schwab (Round 2, 2022)
- 18-Hole Record (Spyglass Hill):
- 62, Phil Mickelson (Round 1, 2005), Luke Donald (Round 1, 2006)
- 18-Hole Record (Monterey Peninsula Country Club):
- 60, Sung Kang (Round 2, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For the third week in a row, we see a tournament that utilizes multiple courses. However, this will be the last rotating course set-up we see this season. Players will rotate between Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Thursday through Saturday, playing a round at each. Once they’ve completed a round at each course, the top 65 golfers and the best 25 Pro-Am teams will advance to Sunday for the final round which is held at Pebble Beach.
Unfortunately, we don’t have shot tracker data for Spyglass Hill or Monterey Peninsula so we’ll have to rely on Pebble Beach. While this is a slight inconvenience, Pebble Beach is the only course that will host two rounds.
Pebble Beach is only 6,972 yards making it one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. However, due to the layout, it forces many players to layup on most holes. This course is all about setting up your approach shot as it has some of the smallest greens on Tour averaging 3,500 sq. ft. With the smaller green sizes, Greens in Regulation percentages are lower than the Tour average here. Given the importance of approach shots, driving accuracy is another key stat to pay attention to. Besides the tough layout, limiting long drivers, and extremely small greens, the wind can also play a major role here as several holes are located on the coast. As of now, the wind doesn’t look to be too bad but if things change, it could make for a very difficult Sunday.
| PEBBLE BEACH GOLF LINKS SCORECARD | ||||||||||
| HOLE | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | OUT |
| YARDS | 381 | 516 | 404 | 331 | 195 | 523 | 106 | 428 | 504 | 3388 |
| PAR | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| HOLE | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | IN |
| YARDS | 446 | 390 | 202 | 445 | 580 | 397 | 403 | 178 | 543 | 3584 |
| PAR | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 46 |
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Spyglass Hill is the longest course of the three and can pose quite a challenge depending on the weather conditions. The four Par 5’s on the course are long but it does feature some very short Par 4’s that players will need to take advantage of. The greens average around 5,000 sq. ft. which in comparison, is much larger than Pebble. However, just like Pebble, second shots will be placed at a premium.
| SPYGLASS HILL GOLF COURSE SCORECARD | ||||||||||
| HOLE | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | OUT |
| YARDS | 595 | 349 | 172 | 370 | 203 | 446 | 549 | 399 | 431 | 3514 |
| PAR | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| HOLE | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | IN |
| YARDS | 407 | 561 | 178 | 460 | 560 | 130 | 476 | 325 | 430 | 3527 |
| PAR | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 4
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
This is the shortest course of the three that players will face this weekend. It features five Par 3’s, four Par 5’s, and, only nine Par 4’s, which is an unusual setup. Given the yardage and setup, it should be the easiest course which will emphasize going low here. All of the Par 5’s are reachable given a good shot off the tee and will provide plenty of scoring opportunities. The five Par 3’s are not particularly long either, so Par 3 Scoring will be another stat to check out this week.
| MONTEREY PENINSULA COUNTRY CLUB SCORECARD | ||||||||||
| HOLE | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | OUT |
| YARDS | 495 | 391 | 155 | 426 | 349 | 570 | 203 | 454 | 223 | 3266 |
| PAR | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 34 |
| HOLE | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | IN |
| YARDS | 544 | 182 | 599 | 417 | 190 | 425 | 500 | 430 | 381 | 3668 |
| PAR | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 37 |
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11, 14
With all of the amateurs in the field, the course will be slightly less difficult than its potential in the first three days. Meaning, the rough won’t be grown out to its limits and the pin placements won’t be as hidden. However, on the final day where it’s just the pros, the pins will be in their most difficult positions creating an exciting finish. Even if the grounds crew and tournament limit some of the difficulty, they can’t control the wind, which will be the main line of defense for these three courses.
The three possible course rotations will be as follows:
- R1: Monterey Peninsula -> R2: Spyglass Hill -> R3: Pebble Beach
- R1: Spyglass Hill -> R2: Pebble Beach -> R3: Monterey Peninsula
- R1: Pebble Beach -> R2: Monterey Peninsula -> R3: Spyglass Hill
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)
- Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5 – Pebble)
- Proximity: 100-125 Yards
- Scrambling
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
156 Players will compete in the Farmers Insurance Open this week. Only 3 of the top 20 players in the world are in the field.
- Jordan Spieth (11-1), has three consecutive top-10 finishes at the event in addition to winning here in 2017. He’s only made four starts on the PGA Tour this year, missing the cut in his last event at the Sony Open. In his three other starts, he’s finished T52 (CJ Cup), 15th (Hero World Challenge), and T13 (Sentry Tournament of Champions).
- Matt Fitzpatrick (11-1), has finished T13/ T13/ T7 in his three starts on the PGA Tour this season. Last year, Fitzpatrick finished T6 at this event with his best finish coming the year prior (T5).
- Viktor Hovland (12-1), made his first and only appearance at this event back in 202 where he finished T38. He’s made five starts on Tour this season finishing inside the top 21 in each event. During that stretch, Hovland won the Hero World Challenge which he also won the year prior.
- Maverick McNealy (20-1), was runner-up at the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finished T5 at the 2020 edition. He’s been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 20 in five of his seven starts on Tour this season.
- Tom Hoge (22-1), won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am which was his first career victory on the PGA Tour. He’s made nine starts this season finishing inside the top 20 in five of those events.
- Seamus Power (22-1), won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship earlier this season. Since then, he’s finished inside the top 25 in each of three starts on the PGA Tour. Last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, Power finished T20 losing over a stroke on the greens.
Previous Winners in the field: Tom Hoge (’22), Nick Taylor (’20), Ted Potter Jr. (’18), Jordan Spieth (’17), Vaughn Taylor (’16), Jimmy Walker (’14), D.A. Points (’11)
Notable Withdraws: Davis Thompson, Vaughn Taylor
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Jordan Spieth: T22/ T4/ T7/ T21/ 1/ T20/ T45/ T9/ T3/ 2
- Maverick McNealy: MC/ T5/ 2/ T33
- Matthew NeSmith: T11/ T16/ MDF
- Trey Mullinax: T14/ T47/ T22/ T28
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
- Adam Long: MC/ MC/ MC
- Michael Kim: MC/ MC
- Andrew Landry: T70/ MC/ MC/ MC
- Martin Trainer: T28/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
- Price: 60-1
- 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
- Price: 18-1
- 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
- Price: 160-1
- 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
- Price: 25-1
- 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
- Price: 500-1
Picks (Outrights):
- Andrew Putnam (+3000) – PointsBet
- Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
- Keith Mitchell (+4000) – PointsBet
- Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
- Alex Smalley (+5000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
- Nick Taylor (+7000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
- Taylor Moore (+7000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
- Brendon Todd (+9000) – Caesars
- Risk: 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
- Nate Lashley (+10000) – DraftKings
- Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.04 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick had a breakout season last year capitalized with his victory at the U.S. Open. He’s played three times this season finishing inside the top 15 in each of those starts. In his most recent start, he finished T7 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions gaining strokes in every category. In the past two years, Fitzpatrick has found success at this event finishing T5 and T6. He’s accurate off the tee which should allow him to showcase his ball-striking ability. His putting has also improved from last season which is another positive for him. When you combine his current form, course history, and talent along with the weak field, Fitzpatrick is set up for success here.
- Viktor Hovland (+115) – DraftKings
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Viktor Hovland has been on a tear to start the season finishing inside the top 21 in each of his first five starts this season. During that stretch, he won the Hero World Challenge defending his title from the previous year. In terms of course history, he’s finished T5 and T4 in the last two years at Pebble Beach. Back in 2019, Viktor also finished T12th at the U.S. Open. Hovland has been known to have some issues on the green but has gained strokes putting in his last two appearances at this event. He’s also taken a step in the right direction in terms of his short game. Last season he was 191st in SG: Around the Green and this season, he currently ranks 39th.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Ben Griffin (+105) – Bet365
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Ben Griffin has a stellar start to his rookie year making the cut in each of his last nine starts. During that span, he has finished inside the top-40 in seven times. He’ll be making his debut at the event this week but despite a lack of course history, he seems like a course fit. He’s a great iron player ranking 41st in SG: Approach and gaining strokes in that category in his last nine starts. While Griffin does struggle on the green, he has shown he can lose strokes putting and still put together a solid performance.
- Russell Knox (+105) – Bet365
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Russell Knox has made the cut in each of his eight starts on Tour. His best finish during that span was at the RSM Classic where he finished T21. Knox has some great course history here finishing inside the top 15 in three of his last five appearances at this event. His approach play has been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Knox’s play on the greens has also improved ranking 84th in strokes gained as compared to 179th last year. While he hasn’t had a tremendous start to the season this course fits him well.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: 5.04 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
