Virginia Tech: 12-8 – They went a spell without their guard Hunter Catoor, and I can see this team making a little run. Ranking 13th on shot quality in offensive turnovers and they are a good three point shooting team. Only ranked 46th on Kenpom with upside.
Iona: 13-6 – This team has also been injured some. Guard Walter Clayton missed three games and is back.
Washington: 13-9 – This team went on stretches without guys like Koren Johnson and Noah Williams. I think when healthy, they can look like they did vs St Mary’s. They are a tall team.
Sell High:
Auburn: 16-4. They haven’t even played a game vs Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. This team is very overrated and will be on the fade train.
Arizona State: 15-6 – This team can’t shoot the three for their lives ranking 280th from the Arc on Shot Quality. They are also a bad post up team.
Texas: 17-3 – This team ranks 9th on Kenpom even without their origional coach. They have a bad rim&3 rate ranking 225th on Shot Quality and they are about to get into the Kansases, Baylors, and Iowa State’s in their schedule.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Mike North @North2North from The Odds Couple and ESPN1000 comes on to break down NFL conference weekend as well as Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 From @ShotQualityBets breaks down some HUGE college basketball games for the weekend!First, Kiev talks about some promotions that we are running at The OddsBreakers! Then, Mike comes on and the guys get right into Chicago sports with some early baseball looks and a FREE PLAY! Next, Mike and Kiev get right into the big NFL games with some more picks for the weekend! After that, Justin comes on and the guys get into the SEC/Big 12 Challenge as well as some buy low, sell high teams. Next, the guys talk break down some huge games for this Saturday! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Pac 12 barking home dogs!
UCLA vs USC +5 O/U 134
What more can you want than an undervalued home dog? This game is a clear rivalry and these cross town teams hate each other. UCLA is a fine team who has a very high rating from beating a lot of middle of the road teams. They don’t do anything bad at all, they play good defense yet they don’t do anything great on offense ranking 110th in FG% and 22nd in adjusted efficiency. UCLA I feel is quite overrated without a top 25 win on Kenpom. USC tends to get hot and cold from three point land, but they do play amazing defense down low ranking 18th in opponent near proximity shooting. USC Ranks 9th in near proximity shooting themselves so I really like what they can do at the Rim. UCLA does not take a lot of threes ranking 350th in attempts in the nation and that is where they will hurt this game. The Bruins like to take too many mid range shots, and the Trojans defend that well ranking 6th in opponent mid range percentage. These teams played earlier this year at UCLA and it was a two point game. USC hasn’t lost at home since the first game of the year. Take the Trojans
USC +5 – 3 stars
Arizona State vs Washington +2.5 O/U 143.5
ASU is the name and being overrated is their game. The Sun Devils were solid at one time beating teams like Creighton, Colorado and Michigan, but what we found out is that Creighton was with out their top player in Ryan Kalkbrenner, Michigan had a bunch of youngsters in mid November, and Colorado is just plain not good. Arizona state has been very lucky as you can see, and that luck has faded some when facing teams like San Francisco, Arizona, and USC losing by nine or more points each. The Huskies on the other hand have been unlucky losing guys like Koren Johnson and Noah Williams in streaks during the season. When healthy, this Huskies team kept it within three points playing at Arizona as well as beating Seattle, and besting number seven on Kenpom Saint Mary’s. Washington hasn’t been the greatest home team, but they do shoot better than ASU at 43.4% to 43.2%. ASU struggles from the free throw line at 68.5% ranking 261st in the nation which doesn’t bode well for a favorite. I see this spot as a revenge spot for the Huskies at home and they win this one outright.
We only have five games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down one of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Carolina defeated Dallas earlier in the season winning 5-4 with Martin Necas scoring the winner in overtime. However, it will be a completely different goaltender matchup tonight as Anderson and Oettinger have been confirmed as the starters.
The Hurricanes have turned things around winning four of their last five, after losing four straight. In their most recent game, Max Pacioretty suffered a likely season-ending Achilles injury after he had just returned from a similar injury. Carolina has faced adversity all season with injuries, specifically in net. Frederick Anderson recently returned from a lower-body injury and has been quick to get back to his All-Star form.
Dallas has found little consistency as of late going 5-5 in their last ten games. They’re coming off an overtime loss to Buffalo where they faced a hot goaltender in Craig Anderson. Before that, the Stars’ offense was clicking on full cylinders as they had scored three or more goals in each of their last five games. The Stars rank 2nd in goals against per game averaging 2.55 anchored by Jake Oettinger. He’s been great this season with a +18.2 GSAx ranking 5th and has a shutout in two of his last four starts.
CAR: F. Anderson (9-3-0), 2.40 GAA, .910 SV% [CONFIRMED]
DAL: J. Oettinger (21-7-5), 2.22 GAA, .925 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Pick(s):
Edmonton Oilers 1st Period -0.5 (-105) – Caesars
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
On the year, the Oilers are averaging 1.06 GF/G and 0.79 GA/G in the first period. At home, Edmonton averages 1.00 GF/G and 0.92 GA/G. Columbus on the other hand is averaging 0.57 GF/G and 0.94 GA/G this season. On the road, those numbers drop to 0.35 GF and 0.70 GA. In Edmonton’s last five games, they’ve led after the first period in four of those matchups. Columbus has been trailing in the first period in three of their last five.
Joonas Korpisalo who’s been confirmed as the starter for Columbus tonight has struggled as of late allowing 4/3/6 goals against in his last three starts.
Vancouver Canucks/ Seattle Kraken Over 6.5 (-130) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units
The Canucks defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 last night with new head coach Rick Tocchet making his debut behind the bench. Historically, Vancouver has dominated Seattle winning each of their six previous matchups against them. In five of those games, the total went over.
Collin Delia got the start last night for Vancouver so Spencer Martin will get the nod tonight. He hasn’t been great this year with -16.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 26 games played. In his last four starts, he’s allowed four or more goals against in three of those games. Last week against Tampa Bay, he allowed four goals on ten shots and was promptly pulled. Earlier in December, he faced off against the Kraken allowing 5 goals against on thirty-one shots.
Martin Jones will get the start for the Seattle Kraken. He’s also struggled this year with a 2.86 GAA and .894 SV%. In his last three starts, he’s allowed five goals against in two of those games. In his one start against Vancouver this season he allowed five goals against.
Both of these starting goalies have been sub-par this season and against their opponents. The Canucks showed some signs of life under their new head coach and I expect them to come out firing again tonight. Seattle’s offense has been in a bit of a slump but Vancouver ranks 31st in goals against which should help them out.
Player Props to Target:
Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
Brady Tkachuk has gone over this number in four of his last five games at home. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game. The Islanders rank 17th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.4. On the road, that number increases to 32.9. He’s on Ottawa’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. New York has taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games. In their previous matchup against the Islanders this year, Tkachuk recorded 6 shots on goal on 11 shot attempts.
William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – BetRivers
William Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Rangers rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.3. On the road, that number increases to 29.8.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Blue Jackets rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.2. On the road, that number increases to 35.9. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers. He’s on Edmonton’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Blue Jackets have taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – Caesars
Oliver Bjorkstrand has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Canucks rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.8. On the road, that number increases to 33.5. They also give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. Bjorkstrand has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his two previous matchups against the Canucks.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’re back with a Wednesday Free Play for everyone! So far this season we’re up 27.63 Units in college basketball thanks to a 23-4-1 seven day run last week. This week we’re 4-3 so far and looking to add some more to the bankroll tonight with three games we like on the docket.
My Free play features the West Virginia Mountaineers (11-8 Overall, 1-6 Big 12) traveling to Lubbock, Texas to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-9 Overall, 0-7 Big 12). They will tip it off at 7:00 ET.
Both these teams are struggling in the most dominant conference in the nation up to this point. They have however for the most part played competitive games and had chances to earn more victories than they have shown so far. Texas Tech only has two double digit losses in conference play, and West Virginia only one. The Red Raiders are led by Senior Forward Kevin Obanor who averages 14.7 points per game and 6.3 boards per contest. Texas Tech is very balanced in scoring with six players averaging at least 9.6 points per game. West Virginia also has great balance with 5 players scoring 10 or more points per game. They are led by senior forward Tre Mitchell at 13.1 points per game.
For me this one comes down to a few main factors. First Texas Tech cant seem to find their footing on offense since the start of conference play. Kenpom has their offensive efficiency rating at 94.1 in Big 12 play which would put them in the bottom 50 overall in the country for the season. West Virginia plays solid defense across the board checking in at 42nd on Kenpom with AdjD. The other piece of the puzzle I dialed in on is turnovers. West Virginia forces them on 22.1% of opponents possessions and is 9th in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate. Texas Tech turns the ball over on 20.5% of their trips down the court. They are 278th in points allowed off turnovers and really struggle against teams that apply defensive pressure which West Virginia does very well, especially in the half court. Both teams have opposite home/road performance splits this season as well with West Virginia better away from Morgantown and Texas Tech struggling more in Lubbock. The last piece of the equation for me is the guys behind the benches. Mark Adams went 12-6 in his first season in Lubbock, but that as mostly with Chris Beard’s players that stuck around. His head coaching record at Texas Pan-American, although a long time ago was less than stellar. Bob Huggins’ teams haven’t been great the last five years, but this is a guy with an almost .700 career win percentage and 927 career head coaching victories. The game hasn’t passed him by and I trust him to push the right buttons in this one. I think the wrong team is favored tonight. Get behind Huggy Bear.
Take West Virginia +3.5 points for 1 Unit and West Virginia ML +140 for 1 Unit
Well we have arrived at Conference Championship weekend. I know four fan bases and anyone holding future(s) tickets on these four teams are stoked! The only unfortunate thing would be, football only has three total games left!
I’m going to break down my plays and how I plan on approaching C.C. weekend.
49ers at Eagles -2 1/2 (O/U 46)
Most of my action is going to come in the early time slot(3:00 Eastern), yes, the Eagles have been statistically one of the best teams in the NFC for most of the season and were still undefeated the 2nd week of November. With that said, I think last week’s devastation of the New York football Giants is slightly an overreaction. They dominated in every facet of the game, but the same thing happened back in Week 14. The Giants weaknesses are the Eagles strengths, they don’t match up with them and lets be honest there at a huge deficit talent wise. Of Philly’s last six games, three, yes three have come against the Giants. Which leads me to, who have they have faced this season outside of their division schedule? The remaining 11 games they faced two playoff teams(Min and Jax). The Vikings in my opinion are their SIGNATURE win, beating Cousins in a Prime-time match up on MNF at home nonetheless, yikes. I’m not sitting here saying strength of schedule is everything, but I think it should be taken into deep consideration that they haven’t faced a juggernaut like the 49ers yet! This leads to the SF side of things, no they haven’t had the most ferocious schedule either, but they have most surely faced more quality teams(Kc, Lac, Mia). Travel much? Their sky-miles did not get very high in 2022. Since Oct 23rd they have traveled to Mexico, Seattle, Las Vegas and LA, all under an hour plane rides. Only three true road games in that span. They are RESTED, I think that will play a huge factor in the 2nd Half Sunday.
Defense’s good vs the run has been the difference in the playoffs so far, but hey that is most years right? SF run D is 2nd in the league at 3.4 yards per rush, which is Sirianni’s bread and butter. They attack teams on the ground and counter with a threatening play action, then Hurts gets to do as he pleases. Without their run game, Hurts wont have an empty canvas to do as he wants. The play making will come down to him stepping up in the pocket and making plays vs SF’s dominant pass rush. I believe over the course of the game, he will ‘tuck it and run’ quite a few times, almost somewhat panicking. Especially, if they are behind ‘The SF defense has 9 INT’s in the last 5 games, if they can steal a few possessions and keep Philly’s offense off the field for large amounts of time they will have a hard time putting up big numbers. Which leads to the Philly run D, they are 24th in the league at 4.7 yards per rush. Shanahan has to be licking his chops hearing those stats! McCaffery, Mitchell and maybe even a Mason sighting are going to have a field day running the ball down their throats. I’m expecting big clock control for SF keeping Hurts and company on the sideline.
Ultimately, I think this will be a boxing match, I see the Eagles throwing the first haymaker, BUT when Purdy is ‘still standing’ LOOK-OUT!
49ers +2 1/2 (3 units)
Hurts over 47 1/2 rush yards (1.5 units)
Leans: Look to live bet SF if PHI has an early lead.
Bengals at Chiefs +1 1/2 (O/U 47)
With all the uncertainty with Mahomes and the ankle injury, I’m staying away from the side and total in this game, but I have a few props I really like!
Joe Mixon was turned loose in the Buffalo game, we have seen that a few times this year. Most fans remember the Carolina game when he scored 5 total TD’s. He got a ‘freshening’ in early December with a knee injury when he missed two weeks. Last week vs Buffalo he looked stronger than ever and he faces a defense that has NOT been good vs the run. The last 9 weeks, KC has given up almost 120 yards a game vs the run.
There were staggering holes last week vs Jacksonville, and I don’t see that changing Sunday!
Mixon over 58 1/2 rush yards (1.25 units)
Mixon Alternate Line over 79 1/2 rush yards +154 (0.5 unit)
Butker over 1 1/2 Field Goals -139 (0.75 unit)
Leans: Mixon Alternate Line over 99 1/2 rush yards +395 (0.25 unit)
Good luck to everyone playing the games this weekend- Eric Rocco
Jon Rahm captures the American Express outdueling Davis Thompson down the stretch. This is the second consecutive event that Rahm has won. He now moves up to 3rd in the OWGR. Rahm’s the current favorite this week and deservedly so especially given his course history. Most recently he won the 2021 U.S. Open which was hosted at Torrey Pines and the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open.
The Farmers Insurance Open will take place at Torrey Pines and will feature a multicourse setup like last week. It’s another unique event that features a great field loaded with some of the top talents in the world.
The Farmers Insurance Open will take place from Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.
The Farmers Insurance Open originated as the San Diego Open back in 1952. That name would last until 1958 when it was changed to the Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open. In 1992 Buick took over the sponsorship of the tournament and the name was changed to the Buick Invitational until 2009. In 2010 the name was switched to the Farmers Insurance Open and has remained that since then.
During the first few years of the event, the tournament bounced around different courses. However, in 1968 the tournament moved to Torrey Pines where it is currently played. The South Course at Torrey Pines has also hosted the U.S. Open twice in 2008 and most recently in 2021.
62, Jon Rahm (Round 1, 2019), Ryan Palmer (Round 2, 2020), Alex Smalley (Round 2, 2022), Adam Schenk (Round 2, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For the second week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. On Wednesday and Thursday, all golfers will play one round on the North and South course. Anyone who has made the cut after that will then play the final two rounds on the South course.
The South Course at Torrey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour. Due to its length and complex green designs, it plays as one of the toughest courses. The redesign in 2019 only increased the difficulty of the course with additional bunkers being added. The South course features Poa Annua greens which are notoriously difficult to score on.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
The North Course is by far the easier course of the two playing roughly 500 yards shorter in terms of distance. There’s also no water hazards on the course and has almost half as many bunkers as the South Course. The North Course also features pure bentgrass greens which are different from the South course. This course provides some more opportunities for birdies which players will need to capitalize on to compete this week.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 250+ Yards
Driving Distance
Bogey Avoidance
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
156 Players will compete in the Farmers Insurance Open this week. 5 of the top 10 players in the world are in the field.
Jon Rahm (+450), won his second event in a row last week at The American Express outdueling Davis Thompson. In Rahm’s four starts on Tour this year, he has never finished outside the top 10. He’s played in the Farmers Insurance Open six times before finishing 1/ T29/ T5/ 2/ T7/ T3.
Xander Schauffele (+1100), has finished top 10 in each of his first three starts this season. He did however withdraw at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Schauffele finished T34 last year at this event and T2 in 2021.
Tony Finau (+1100), won the Cadence Bank Houston Open back in November and has finished inside the top 20 in his last three starts since then. In his eight appearances at Torrey Pines, he has four top-10 finishes.
Justin Thomas (+1400), has only played three times this season finishing T40/ 5/ T25. He’ll make his second consecutive appearance at this event after finishing T20 last year.
Collin Morikawa (+1800), is trending towards a win finishing T45/ T29/T15/ 6/ 2 in his five starts this season. He last played in this event in 2020 when he finished T21.
Will Zalatoris (+1800), has only played twice this season finishing T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T36 at The American Express. He has some great course history here placing T7 in 2021 and 2nd in 2022.
Previous Winners in the field: Luke List (’22), Justin Rose (’19), Jason Day (’18, ’15), Jon Rahm (’17), Scott Stallings (’14)
Notable Withdraws: Max McGreevy, Mark Hubbard, Chex Reavie, Chris Stroud, John Huh
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Satoshi Kodaira: MC/ MC/ MC
Tyler Duncan: MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ 77
Scott Harrington: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Luke List (-15)
Price: 90-1
2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
Price: 25-1
2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
Price: 55-1
2019: Justin Rose (-21)
Price: 14-1
2018: Jason Day (-9)
Price: 22-1
Picks (Outrights):
Will Zalatoris (+1800) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Collin Morikawa (+2000) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Max Homa (+2500) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Jason Day (+115) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Taylor Montgomery (+130) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Luke List (+110) – FanDuel
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Taylor Pendrith (+125) – FanDuel
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Farmers Insurance Open: 5.17 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Oklahoma vs TCU -6.5 O/U 138
We are smack dab into conference play, and hunting for undervalued dogs is what I like to do. Oklahoma is a team that should be a little desperate here losing five out of their last 7 conference games. They are currently on the bubble when it comes to the NCAA tournament and they desperately need a quadrant 1 win. TCU is cruising after a nice win at the Phog on Saturday. This is their first win EVER away vs Kansas and the kids are probably still celebrating. In saying that, I now think that TCU is a bit overrated, and when it comes to this game, the numbers do not add up. The Sooners play a slow calculated pace with great shooting ranking 18th in effective FG% to TCU’s 145th. From down town, Oklahoma ranks 72nd in 3P% while TCU ranks a dismal 335th. Now where TCU has an advantage is offensive boards ranking 31st in the nation, but on defense they only rank 286th with that fast pace. The Sooners have a knack for playing good defense and that could hurt a Horned Frogs team fresh off of a huge win. Lastly, the Sooners are a good away team ranking 55th in away from home games to TCU who is a poor home team ranking 322nd at their own court. Gonna go with Oklahoma here to at least cover this spread and if they can limit the turnovers, they will have a chance to win this one outright.
Oklahoma +6.5 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Rutgers -6 O/U 130
This is a simple handicap for me. Rutgers is a very good home team and there is no disagreement with that, but they are also a slower paced team who sometimes struggles on offense. Rutgers effective FG% is only 47.5 ranking 295th in the nation. They are great at defense and all ranking 10th in the nation in opponent FG%, but if opponents can come off the ball screen with clean looks, that could be a big problem for the Scarlet Knights. According to shot quality bets, Penn State ranking 70th coming off ball screens while Rutgers ranks 199th in that Category. Now Rutgers is good at finishing at the rim ranking 4th in the nation, but Penn State can defend that ranking 7th in the nation near the rim on defense. If there is an area that Rutgers needs to improve on, it is defending the three ball only ranking 268th in catch and shoot threes. Penn State ranks 53rd in the nation in catch and shoot threes and number six in three point percentage. Take the Nittany Lions in a game where points will come at a premium.
We only have four games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
New York Rangers: 25-14-7, 3rd Metropolitan (11-9-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
+110
+115
+1.5 (-210)
o6.5 (-115)
New York Rangers
-130
-135
-1.5 (+185)
u6.5 (-105)
These teams faced off in the beginning of January where the Rangers defeated the Panthers 5-3.
After a slow start to the season, the Panthers have found their groove winning seven of their last ten games. Florida’s offense has been fantastic lately scoring at least four goals in each of their last five games.
The Rangers have won three of their last five games. New York’s offense has been sub-par as of late averaging 2.2 goals during that span. The total has gone under in each of the Rangers last four games overall.
FLA: A. Lyon (2-0-0), 2.55 GAA, .912 SV% [CONFIRMED]
These teams faced off in February where the Stars defeated the Sabres 4-2.
Buffalo has won their last two games defeating the Islanders and the Ducks. The Sabres are currenlty five points out of the playoffs with a game in hand on Pittsburgh.
Dallas has won three of their last four games. During that span, they shutout their opponents in each of those wins.
BUF: C. Anderson (7-6-2), 2.78 GAA, .917 SV%
DAL: J. Oettinger (21-7-4), 2.20 GAA, .926 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Pick(s):
Florida Panthers/ New York Rangers Under 6.5 (+102) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 0.26 Units
Florida’s offense has been great as of late but will face a tough New York Rangers squad tonight that allows the 4th fewest goals against. The Ranger’s haven’t allowed more than three goals against in their last five games. New York’s offense has been sub-par as of late averaging 2.2 goals during that same span. Jaroslav Halak is expected to get the nod tonight who has a 1.00 GAA in his last two games. Alex Lyon has been confirmed for Florida and has been solid as well with a 2.55 GAA and .912 SV% in his two starts.
Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-140) – DraftKings
Risk 0.35 to win 0.25 Units
The Islanders are in a free fall losing eight of their last ten games including their last four. They’ve particularly struggled on the road going 1-7 in their last eight games. Sorokin has allowed at 4/3/4 goals against in his last three starts. Toronto is coming off a disappointing loss to the Canadiens in their last game. The Leaf’s have also been great at home this season going 17-3-4. Their numbers are much better at Scotiabank Arena averaging 3.50 GF/G and 2.38 GA/G compared to their overall numbers of 3.36 GF/G and 2.64 GA/G. I expect the Leafs to rebound at home and knock off the Islanders in Regulation.
Lean(s):
Dallas Stars in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings
Calgary Flames 1P -0.5 (-110) – DraftKings
Player Prop(s) to Target:
Carter Verhaeghe over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetRivers
Carter Verhaeghe has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Rangers rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.1. At home, that number drops slightly to 28.5. They also give up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. In their previous matchup against the Rangers this season, Verhaeghe recorded 4 shots on goal on 5 shot attempts.
Chris Kreider over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Chris Kreider has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last four. The Panthers rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. On the road, that number drops slightly to 31.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on New York’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Panthers have taken five or more penalties in three of their last five games. Kreider has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against the Panthers.
Jason Robertson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
Jason Robertson has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Sabres rank 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.0. On the road, that number increases to 34.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. He’s on Dallas’ top Power Play which should see some of action tonight. Robertson has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in one of his two previous matchups against the Sabres.
Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
Tyler Toffoli has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last two. The Blue Jackets rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.9. On the road, that number increases to 35.2. They also give up the 15th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on New York’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Blue Jackets have taken three or more penalties in three of their last four games. Toffoli has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against the Blue Jackets.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Literally no time this morning. Maybe more picks later as things calm down at the household and I find more time to handicap. Here are my picks and nothing else, ha:
NBA Picks:
Pistons TT under 112.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
T-Wolves -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Kings ML (-105), to win 1 unit
Grizzlies/Kings under 245.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
CBB Picks (26-23, +2.82 units):
Howard -8 (-110), to win 1 unit
Alcorn St. -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Aussie Open (3-2, +3.54 units):
Rybakina/Ostapenko over 2.5 sets (+130), to win 1.3 units
Pegula wins 2-1 (Set Betting, +320), to win 3.2 units
