We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big and profitable weekend of sports! First, Kiev talks about the good the bad, and the ugly for last weekend in football. Then, we get into some NFL football recap with box score analysis. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL conference Week! Want to ask us something? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Cincinnati vs Buffalo -6 O/U 49
I think the Bengals are a top three team in the league. Last week against the Ravens was bad, and that is what good coaches like John Harbaugh does. They ugly up games. Roquan Smith has proven to be a pretty good asset on that Ravens defense. In saying that Buffalo has a strong offense at 1.1 net yards per play towering over the Bengals at .1 net yards per play. Buffalo looks to have advantages on the ground at 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, but some of that is Josh Allen’s legs himself. Cincinnati strength is through the air matching Buffalo at 260 passing yards per game. Both are top 5 in drop-back EPA and success rate. The path for the Bills to cover this spread is on the ground as the Ravens showed us last week, but the Bills tend to not get the best out of their running game at times and only rank 16th in rush EPA even with the strong yards per attempt. The Bills weakness is against the pass with their two best safeties out in Damar Hamlin and Micah Hyde early in the season. This isn’t good news against Burrow and his 4 stud pass catchers in Higgens, Chase, Boyd and Hurst. Don’t forget Mixon. The Patriots showed that path to victory minus their special teams screw ups the final week of the season. This is where the Bengals can stay in this game and keep it very close. Now I know that Cincinnati has some bad offensive line injuries, but this is something that they delt with all year in 2022 and they made it to the Superbowl. If the Bengals are smart, they also get Mixon very involved in the passing game and get him in some space. Cinci looked good in the beginning of the cancelled game against the Bills a few weeks back. I have the Bills -2.5 here. I think the Bengals cover this spread with a shot to win it.
Bengals +6 – 3 stars – +205 ML for .5 stars
Bills sack prop over 2.5 sacks -110 – 2 stars
We have fourteen games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Pick(s):
Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
The Islanders have been dreadful as of late losing eight of their last ten including their last three. Their offense has been stagnant averaging just 2 goals per game in their last ten. Oddly enough, they average fewer goals at home (2.87) compared to on the road (3.04). Ilya Sorokin who’s been confirmed as the Islanders’ starter for today has allowed at least three goals in his last two starts. Carolina has been finding their stride winning three of their last four games. Their lone loss was against Vancouver in a shootout. The Hurricanes do average slightly fewer goals for on the road but average the same amount of goals against. Since his return, Frederik Anderson has been great averaging just 1.67 goals against in his last three starts. Carolina’s defensive unit should be able to shut down the Islanders up front given their recent struggles. In their last matchup, the Hurricanes held the Islanders to just 16 shots on goal.
Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings
Lean(s):
Carolina Hurricanes/ New York Islanders Under 5.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Los Angeles Kings/ Nashville Predators Under 6.0 (-110) – DraftKings
Player Prop(s) to Target:
Matt Boldy over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-139) – Caesars
Matt Boldy has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Panthers rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. At home, that number increases to 32.4. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. He’s on Minnesota’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Panthers have taken five or more penalties in three of their last five games.
William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – FanDuel
William Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Canadiens rank 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.9. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.2. They also give up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on Toronto’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Canadiens have taken three or more penalties in seven of their last ten games. Nylander has also recorded at least 4 shots on goal in each of his three previous matchups against Montreal.
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-152) – BetRivers
Miro Heiskanen has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 6.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Coyotes rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.3. On the road, that number drops slightly to 33.3. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen. He’s on Toronto’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Coyotes have taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-134) – BetRivers
Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.2 shots on goal and 7.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Canucks rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.3. At home, that number drops slightly to 31.0. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Centers. He’s on Edmonton’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight. McDavid has also recorded at least 4 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against Vancouver.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
This will be a good fight between a nobody who hasn’t lost in Luan and a somebody that hasn’t won the big competition in Cody. I must say that I am not that impressed with Cody’s wins vs Brian Kelleher and Eddie Wineland. In saying that, Cody has never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice. Luan is Brazilian and that is important being this fight in Rio De Janeiro. Lacerda has 12 wins and 1 loss dating back to 2014. He is a BJJ blackbelt who has finished his opponents by submission 10 time out of his 12 wins. He has never even been to the 3rd round since 2016. I think that Lacerda has a great shot at winning this fight at +300, but I also think that it will be by submission and the juicy +600 price. Just in case Lacerda gets knocked out, I am also taking this baby under 2.5 rounds being that you can get a juicy price at +175.
Luan Lacerda by sub +600 – 1 star Under 2.5 rounds +175 – 1 star
*CBB(1u): Iowa State/Oklahoma State 1H UNDER 58.5–1 PM CT
These are two of the best defenses in America, and both see their offensive play lag behind. Iowa State is the much better shot-making team, but do I expect them to knock down shots vs a Cowboys defense that is limiting opponents to just 29% from the outside this year? On the other hand, Oklahoma State is pretty porous shooting the basketball and also holds an ugly 0.9 assist/turnover ratio.
While pace will be on our side throughout the full game, this should be a down-to-the-wire game that could feature OT or late-game shenanigans. I know 58.5 is a low total, but it’s more than warranted. I’ll take a stab at this 1H Under.
*CBB(1u): Seton Hall +1.5 vs Marquette–3 PM CT
Marquette has found a way to maneuver quite a few close wins, but I don’t think they’ll enjoy that same luxury today. Unlike many Big East teams, Seton Hall has a legit Top 20 defense in CBB. They just forced a borderline elite UCONN offense into 17 turnovers and held the Huskies to less than 40% from the field. These sorts of teams have given Marquette issues this year; Mississippi State and Wisconsin both squeaked out wins over the Golden Eagles.
Seton Hall is in great current form having won 4 straight(including that aforementioned UCONN win). Marquette holds an edge in virtually every offensive category, but I will stick to my belief that Marquette does not have a Top 100 defense in CBB. In this sort of matchup, I’ll take the better defense that just happens to be catching points at home.
I thought about isolating this in the 1H given Marquette’s knack for strong 2H’s. The more I thought about it, the more I trust Seton Hall’s defense to close this game out. Marquette is not a very experienced group, and I think they falter on the road here.
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This is a perfect buy low sell high spot where Iowa has ripped off four wins in a row with three of them at home and a good roady vs Rutgers. I watched Iowa perform against Indiana and Michigan and pure momentum and home court whistles was the reason that they came back in those games. The Hawkeyes were very fortunate to make both of those comebacks. A big issue with the Hawkeyes is defense. They only rank 152 in opponent efficiency while Ohio State ranks 13th on offense. Ohio State also has the much better field goal percentage ranking 20th from downtown and they defend the three ball quite will ranking 21st in opponent three point percentage. Iowa ranks 104th in effective FG% and a huge drop-off from last year from downtown at 170th. Ohio State lost 5 games in a row, but many of those losses were without their best big man in Zed Key. He is back for this matchup to help clean up the boards. I think Ohio State should get an easier win here at home. Ohio State is better in almost every major category over Iowa.
Ohio State -3 – 3 stars
North Texas vs UAB -4 O/U 135
This is gonna be a matchup of fast vs slow. UAB ranks 8th in average possession length while North Texas ranks dead last at 363rd. The Mean Green prides themselves on defense ranking 38th in opponent efficiency. The Blazers pride themsleves on offense ranking 33rd in efficiency. The big issue with UAB is if they have a cold night from three, they struggle to score. North Texas defends the three ball pretty well ranking 64th in opponent field goal percentage from the arc. UAB can’t hit from two all that well with their percentage at only 48.6%. North Texas isn’t a good shooting team themselves at 48.4% effective FG, but they have played some fast teams already like FIU, Umass and Louisiana Tech and won pretty easily. The biggest issue for UAB is that their point guard Jordan Walker could miss this game and he averages 23.8 points per game. That is second in the nation. This game last year was very close and I think it remains so.
Iowa – This Iowa team has gotten lucky at the end of games recently vs Michigan and Indiana both at home. They are a little overrated and will have some tough spots coming up.
Seattle – Has won a bunch of very close games ranking number 2 in luck factor. When they hit the road, I’ll be fading.
LSU – This team is terrible and should get blown out many times the rest of the season.
Buy Low:
Wisconsin – Now that they have Tyler Wahl back, they should start heading in the right direction. Very underrated at 68th on Kenpom.
USC – It’s the Andy Enfield factor. Ranking only 58th on Kenpom and 46th on Torvik. They are also a great away team.
Clemson – Still very underrated especially at home. They rank 58th on Haslametrics and 62nd on Kenpom. They are better than that. I will look to be on them this weekend.
Today Kyle @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev @OBKiev discuss the NFL Wildcard Weekend with our special guest Sean Higgs @MrSeanHiggs. We have some big plays as well as college basketball for the weekend. Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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We only have two games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down both matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
These teams faced off two nights ago when Ottawa defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 in OT. Brady Tkachuk led the Senators in points with 4 while Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby each had 3 for the Penguins.
Ottawa ended their two-game losing streak against the Penguins in their last game. They have been in a slump lately winning just two of their last six games.
Just like the Senators the Penguins are in a slump losing seven of their last ten games. Casey DeSmith has handled the majority of the workload with Tristan Jarry out and has not been good at all. However, Jarry will make his first start tonight since January 2nd after suffering a lower-body injury.
OTT: C. Talbot (11-12-1), 2.91 GAA, .903 SV%
PIT: T. Jarry (15-5-4), 2.75 GAA, .918 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Colorado Avalanche: 23-17-3, 4th Central (11-8-3 Away)
Vancouver Canucks: 18-23-3, 6th Pacific (10-12-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-155
-135
-1.5 (+170)
o6.5 (-120)
Vancouver Canucks
+135
+115
+1.5 (-200)
u6.5 (+100)
Vancouver defeated Colorado earlier this season 4-2. Oliver Ekman-Larson and Elias Petterson led the way for the Canucks with two points a piece.
After a slow start to the season due to injuries, the Avalanche are relatively healthy and on a three-game win streak. During that span, they’ve outscored opponents 17-4. They’re still without Landeskog and Manson but are expected to get them back next month.
The Canucks on the other hand are in a bit of a slump losing eight of their last ten games. One of their wins during that span was against Colorado. Vancouver has been able to produce offensively but has struggled defensively with the injury to Thatcher Demko.
COL: A. Georgiev (17-11-3), 2.69 GAA, .916 SV%
VAN: S. Martin (11-11-1), 3.89 GAA, .877 SV%
Pick(s):
Pittsburgh Penguins in Regulation (+105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.25 to win 0.26 Units
The Penguins are just coming off a 5-4 OT loss against the Senators in their last game. Ottawa scored four goals on the power play in that game which is something they haven’t done all year. I’m expecting Pittsburgh to tighten things up tonight and not let the 3rd ranked power play have that many chances tonight.
Pittsburgh returns home where they’ve been much better with a 12-5-4 record. Ottawa while decent at home has a sub-.500 record on the road this season. The Senators’ home/away splits reflect that as they average almost a goal less per game away from home. The Penguins will also get Tristan Jarry back after suffering a lower-body injury earlier this month. I’m expecting the Penguins to come out with an inspired effort tonight where they take care of business in regulation.
Colorado Avalanche (-135) – DraftKings
Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
The Avalanche have yet to beat the Vancouver Canucks this season losing both of their matchups against them. However, the momentum has switched to Colorado who’s on a three-game winning streak. Vancouver on the other hand has only won two of their last eight games. The Avalanche have recently got some key players back while Vancouver is still without their number-one netminder.
Colorado has much better numbers at home this year despite the minimal disparity in their home/away record. Vancouver only has one win in their last seven games on the road and has allowed four or more goals against in four of those matchups. The Avalanche have scored at least four or more goals in each of their last three. Colorado’s offense looks to be hitting its stride and given the issues on Vancouver’s back end, I think they should be able to get their first win of the season against the Canucks tonight.
Lean(s):
Pittsburgh Penguins/ Ottawa Senators Under 6.5 (-110)
Player Prop(s) to Target:
Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
Alex DeBrincat has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Penguins rank 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.5. At home, that number increases to 34.2. In their previous matchup against the Penguins this season, DeBrincat recorded 4 shots on goal on 6 shot attempts.
Thomas Chabot over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – DraftKings
Thomas Chabot has recorded over 2.5 SOG against the Pittsburgh Penguins in nine of his eleven career matchups. In their previous matchup against the Penguins this season, Chabot recorded 4 shots on goal on 6 shot attempts. The Penguins rank 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.5. At home, that number increases to 34.2. They also give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.
Evgeni Malkin over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
Evgeni Malkin has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal and 7.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last four. The Senators rank 18th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.5. On the road, that number stays the same. In their previous matchup against the Senators this season, Malkin recorded 4 shots on goal on 7 shot attempts.
J.T. Miller over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-118) – Caesars
J.T. Miller has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Avalanche rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.0. On the road, that number increases to 34.1. In their previous matchup against the Avalanche this season, Miller recorded 3 shots on goal on 4 shot attempts.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
