Clunky in CBB yesterday, but we swept our Australian Open bets and we’re still 29-11 overall in all sports the last 5 days!
It’s baby shower weekend here at the house, which means a lot of family is here and I’ll have a lot less time to write up thorough details in our picks. Thank you for understanding!
Don’t love a lot in NBA or CBB today, but there’s some value out there:
NBA:
CJ McCollum over 25.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Looks like the Pels will have Herbert Jones tonight and although I respect the Magic and the kind of team they’ve grown into this season, the Pels are a deeper team and can’t afford to keep losing at this rate. I’ll just lean New Orleans, but this is probably a big CJ McCollum game, as he’s their most dependable shooter and the Magic are a formidable offensive team. It won’t be easy. Orlando has had 5 days off, but they also have a B2B tomorrow on the road. Not ideal. We’ll look to fade the Magic tomorrow.
Hawks 2.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Let’s keep riding the hot team. I love the chemistry, defense, and production coming from this Atlanta team, especially off an impressive win on the road against one of the Western Conference’s top opponents AND a potential MVP in Luka. It was also a TNT game, but Atlanta handled the pressure just fine. Dejounte Murray has been FANTASTIC on both ends, he’s turning into a legit star, and the Knicks recorded the fourth-lowest defensive rating (115.3) in the league when Mitchell Robinson (thumb) was sidelined for eight games earlier in the season. He’ll be out again today, which leaves that front court open for infiltration. I think Atlanta takes advantage at home.
OKC/Kings 1H over 119.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Two teams that are flying really fast right now and the Kings go even faster at home. Both OKC and Sacramento are healthy and Sacramento’s offense has returned to its #1 rating in offensive efficiency over the last two weeks. I expect a ton of points in this one– OKC has a good formula to create offense with their dynamic passing ability, too, and it’s not like the Kings are playing any defense these days.
CBB (24-18, +5.27 units):
St. Johns/Villanova 1H over 71 (-120), to win 1 unit
St. Johns 1H -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
I’m not sure if they can hang onto a lead but this is a revenge game for the Red Storm and they fly at an absolutely frenetic pace on their home floor. Their defense is considerably better than Nova and they have great momentum heading into this game. I think St John’s takes it to the Wildcats early.
I can see why this spread is where it’s at from when Patrick homes sliced this defense apart at Arrowhead back in November winning by 10 points, but I believe that the Jaguars are now a better football team and it showed over the last 5 weeks beating teams like the Cowboys, Jets and the Titans twice. Both teams are very healthy coming into this game. Kansas city has strong numbers. Mahomes is number 1 in EPA and CPOE. Kansas City is number 1 in net yards per play at +1.2. If the Chiefs have a weakness, it is against the run allowing 4.4 yards per rushing attempt where the Jaguars average 4.8. If Kansas City jumps this Jaguars team like the Chargers did, don’t expect a winning comeback, but if Jacksonville can control the clock some and put some pressure on Travis Kelce I think they could make some noise here. I like the fact that these teams have played each other and that there is familiarity for the dog especially. I also like how the Jags faced a team with a good tight end last week in Gerald Everette. The Chief’s big weakness is allowing touchdowns in the red zone ranking 31st giving up six at a 67% clip which should help the Jaguars in the Red Zone. Either way, I think Kansas City wins this game, but my number is Kansas City -6.75.
Jaguars +8.5 – 2.5 stars
Giants vs Eagles -7.5 O/U 48
Here is a huge game with two divisional rivals playing a third time! Now the Eagles have kinda limped into the playoffs with the Hurts injury. Do you think that the Eagles did anything to show their hand the last week of the season vs the Giants? Maybe, maybe not. I am a little weary of the Eagles defense here. Over the last 7 weeks, the Eagles defense is closer to average ranking 11th in oppoonent EPA per play. We don’t have to say much about the Giants defense giving up 5.9 yards per play and ranking 28th in opponent EPA per play. The way for the Giants to win this game is running the football. The eagles only weakness is against the run allowing 4.6 yard per rush and 26th in opponent rush epa, and that is where Saquon Barkley needs to attack them with the Giants averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 7th in rush EPA themselves. In saying that, the Eagles are number 1 in rush EPA at 4.6 yards per attempt while the Giants defense gives up a massive 5.2 yards per rushing attempt ranking 30th in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles have a huge 1.4 net yards per play advantage here. Metrically, I have the Giants by 10 points, but the 7.5 number is a good one based on the familiarity that these teams have with each other. I like how Jones played the last few weeks and his legs have been just as dangerous as any other quarterback’s. Their first game went to 70 points. Strong lean to Eagles but take the over.
I like the over 47 or 48 for 2.5 stars
Teaser: Kansas City to -2.5 with the Eagles to -1.5 – 1.5 stars
We have a HUGE show for you today! Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports and The Simple Handicap comes on to break down NFL Divisional weekend!First, Kiev talks about the horrible price the books are offering for a Brett Maher missed extra point. Then, Adam comes on and the guys get right into the big NFL games with some FREE PLAYS for the weekend! Next, Kiev talks some college basketball with some teams to buy low and sell high on as well as some big Saturday games with some plays. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have thirteen games taking place across the NHL tonight. There are several important matchups including Winnipeg/ Toronto, Boston/ New York, New Jersey/ Seattle, and Dallas/ Los Angeles. I break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Game Previews:
Winnipeg Jets @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Winnipeg Jets: 29-15-1, 1st Central (12-9-1 Away)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 27-11-7, 2nd Atlantic (16-3-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Winnipeg Jets
+145
+145
+1.5 (-175)
o6 (-120)
Toronto Maple Leafs
-175
-170
-1.5 (+150)
u6 (+100)
The Winnipeg Jets have been a tear lately winning eight of their last ten games. However, in their most recent game they lost to the Montreal Canadiens 4-1. They’ll face the Leafs tonight in their second game of a five-game road trip.
Toronto is coming off a come-from-behind win against the Florida Panthers where William Nylander was the OT hero. Murray struggled in that game allowing four goals on eight shots before Samsonov took over. Before that, they had dropped two straight games on the road.
WPG: C. Hellebuyck (22-11-1), 2.41 GAA, .924 SV% [CONFIRMED]
TOR: I. Samsonov (13-3-1), 2.24 GAA, .926 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Boston Bruins: 35-5-4, 1st Atlantic (14-4-1 Away)
New York Rangers: 25-13-7, 3rd Metropolitan (11-8-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Boston Bruins
-115
-115
-1.5 (+210)
o5.5 (-115)
New York Rangers
-105
-105
+1.5 (-250)
u5.5 (-105)
The Boston Bruins now have 74 points through 44 games holding a 13-point lead in the Atlantic Division. Last night, they defeated the New York Rangers 4-1 after being down in the first period. On no day’s rest, the Bruins are 5-1.
After a slow start to the year, the New York Rangers have found their groove winning six of their last eight games. They have only beaten the Boston Bruins once in their last five matchups.
BOS: J. Swayman (10-3-3), 2.35 GAA, .912 SV%
TOR: I. Shesterkin (20-7-6), 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%
New Jersey Devils @ Seattle Kraken
Time: 10:00 PM ET
New Jersey Devils: 29-12-3, 2nd Metropolitan (18-2-1 Away)
The Devils are currently on a five-game winning streak. They also have one of the best records on the road going 18-2-1.
Seattle has lost their last two games after winning eight games in a row. They’ve been outscored 9-3 during that two-game span.
NJD: M. Blackwood (6-3-1), 2.95 GAA, .895 SV% [CONFIRMED]
SEA: M. Jones (21-6-3), 2.84 GAA, .893 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Dallas Stars: 26-13-7, 2nd Central (14-8-4 Away)
Los Angeles Kings: 25-15-6, 3rd Pacific (14-8-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Dallas Stars
+100
+115
+1.5 (-215)
o6 (-105)
Los Angeles Kings
-120
-135
-1.5 (+185)
u6 (-115)
The Stars let up a three-goal lead against the San Jose Sharks last night that dropped them to 2nd place in the Central Division. With that loss, they have only won one of their last four games.
The Kings have had a few days off after losing to New Jersey at home on Saturday. That loss ended their three-game winning streak. On three days rest or more, the Kings are 1-0 this season.
DAL: S. Wedgewood (6-6-3), 3.19 GAA, .905 SV%
LAK: P. Copley (12-2-0), 2.59 GAA, .904 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Pick(s):
Columbus Blue Jackets in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
The Blue Jackets have been much better on home ice this season with a 10-14-1 record while Anaheim has been poor on the road going 4-15-4. Both of these teams have struggled lately with the Ducks dropping their last five and Columbus losing their last two. The Blue Jackets do have the advantage in net tonight which I believe will be the difference. John Gibson has allowed four or more goals in his last three starts. Elvis Merzlikins, while not much better, has only allowed an average of three goals against in his last two. These are two of the bottom teams in the NHL but given the home/ away splits and netminder advantage, I like Columbus here.
Los Angeles Kings (-135) – DraftKings
Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
Both teams are coming off a loss but the Kings have a significant advantage in terms of rest. Dallas played a tough game against the Sharks last night while Los Angeles hasn’t played since Saturday. The Kings have been great at home this year while Dallas has had some struggles on the road.
Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (-110) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units
Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
Washington Capitals in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings
Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units
Lean(s):
Florida Panthers/ Montreal Canadiens Over 6.5 (-105) – BetMGM/ Caesars
Dallas Stars/ Los Angeles Kings Under 6.0 (-115) – DraftKings
Buffalo Sabres (-120) – BetMGM
Player Prop(s) to Target:
Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160) – FanDuel
Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last two. The Islanders rank 17th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.1. On the road, that number increases to 32.1. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Alex Tuch over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – BetRivers
Alex Tuch has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Islanders rank 17th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.1. On the road, that number increases to 32.1. They also give up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.
Nino Niederreiter over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – FanDuel
Nino Niederreiter has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blues rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.4. At home, that number drops slightly to 30.5. They also give up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – BetRivers
Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.8 shots on goal and 7.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Lightning rank 12th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.7. On the road, that number drops slightly to 30.1.
Dylan Larkin over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-124) – BetRivers
Dylan Larkin has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Golden Knights rank 11th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.6. At home, that number drops slightly to 39.7. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers.
Kevin Fiala over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+106) – FanDuel
Kevin Fiala has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Stars rank 16th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.0. On the road, that number increases to 32.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Alex Iafallo over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-122) – FanDuel
Alex Iafallo has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Stars rank 16th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.0. On the road, that number increases to 32.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-114) – BetRivers
Alex Pietrangelo has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Red Wings rank 14th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.9. On the road, that number increases to 32.2.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I think this is a really good spot to back the Hoosiers. Indiana just endured a horrific 3 game slide where their defense in particular underperformed, but they responded with a dominant 63-45 win over Wisconsin this past Saturday. Quite frankly, I don’t view this is a very tough matchup for their defense. Illinois turns the ball over 13.6 times per game(291st in CBB), and the Illini shoot just 33% from 3-point land(233rd in CBB). Illinois is very physical within their frontcourt, but Indiana is a Top 50 defensive rebounding team in America.
The Hoosiers’ offense is not hard to trust. On the year, they’re shooting over 50% from the floor, 37% from 3, and take far better care of the basketball than Illinois. The Illini will present a tough challenge defensively, but Indiana is an incredibly experienced team that I expect to handle this road environment with poise.
I really don’t like backing road teams over the full game, and Illinois has started slow in each of their past 2 home games before pulling away in the 2H. That made it a pretty easy decision for me to isolate this in the 1H.
When you compare these defenses and each team’s rebounding ability, you simply can’t justify Arkansas being a ‘dog here. I know the Razorbacks have hit a bit of a rough patch in recent weeks, but this is still a Top 20 defense in America. For comparison’s sake, Missouri has slipped all the way to 187th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Tigers are also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in America(357th out of 363 teams), while Arkansas is good-to-great on the glass at both ends of the floor.
When these teams met in Fayetteville a few weeks ago, Arkansas played about as bad offensively as you could imagine… they would still go on to win comfortably. Missouri had been one of the best shot-making teams in America for the first few months of the season, but the Tigers seem to be cooling down a bit; they have scored just 64 points in each of their last two games, even versus a remarkably mediocre Texas A&M defense.
Arkansas is still a relatively young team, and Missouri’s offense can catch fire at any minute. As a result, I’ll isolate this in the 1H. With that said, I’ll be damned if I don’t take advantage of this poor line in some fashion.
The Mountaineers really need this win and back on their home floor, I expect the better offense to settle in and take advantage. TCU is overly reliant on efficient defense but that could falter severely in a tough road spot.
Lafayette +4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I’ll keep fading American here. Yes, they’re back at home, but trust me (I went there for grad school), there’s nothing impressive about that home court. Lafayette is starting to find a little rhythm on offense, they shoot a lot of 3s, and lately they’ve been winning through solid defense. This should be another close game.
St. Louis 1H over 34.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
The Billikens play with an attacking mentality and they’ll look to catch a bad Ramblers’ team off guard from the jump. Their pace and shooting ability should be too much early, but maybe Loyola-Chicago makes halftime adjustments and settles in late. We’ll take an early scoring melee from the away team.
Another nice day– 5-2 overall with NBA and CBB, so at least that combo is starting to work! We’re actually 18-6 overall the last few days, not too shabby!
Onto more! CBB Picks will be out later today, if I have time, and I’m starting to look at the Australian Open, too. Not that I have any time (lol), but we won a lot last summer.
NBA:
Hawks ML (+114), to win 1.14 units
Hawks/Mavs under 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks are playing good basketball right now, believe it or not. When they need to win by defense, they can win by defense. When they need to outshoot their opponent, they’ve been able to do that, too. John Collins warmed up and back in his normal rotation certainly helps, and D. Murray has been fantastic the last 5 games. Trae Young has found his range too, and seems to have turned a corner in his mentality. Dallas will get Dorian Finney Smith and Jeff Green tonight, but both are coming off missing 20+ games. They’ll be cold, and probably won’t have the wind to hang with a Hawks’ team that’s been aggressive and confident. The Mavs go at a slow pace and their defense has been horrendous recently– I think they tick it up tonight, while the Hawks have been formidable on that side of the court. Like the under, like the Hawks.
Hornets/Rockets over 237 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Yea it’s just hard to not play an over here. These are two of the worst defenses in the NBA and they’re just not improving. The Hornets have allowed 122 points over their last 10 games, while the Rockets have allowed a staggering 123.7 ppg. When two bad teams face each other, it’s usually a showcase of offense since neither team has much to play for this season. The Rockets have been a good offensive rebounding team, while the talent of LaMelo Ball means the Hornets utilize ball movement and assists more than most teams. The staple of a bad defense is when they don’t defend the rim, and neither of these teams are doing this in an adequate fashion. Neither is defending the 3-ball, either. High pace, over.
Cavs +7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Too many points for the Grizzlies here. This is an unfamiliar matchup for both teams but what the Grizzlies do best, attack the rim, is what the Cavs defend best. Even without D. Mitchell today, the interior defense of Cleveland should fend off the explosive offense of Memphis for much of this game. And seven points is just too much for a team that’s deeper than most outfits in the NBA.
Alabama/Vanderbilt under 154.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Stackhouse will have his team ready against the Crimson Tide– they always play Bama well and while the Tide are rollin’, I expect some better defense from the home team on the weird, lifted court of the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Belmont 1H -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has gone up too much but Belmont is really comfortable on their home floor and they’ve been lights out lately. They also have revenge on their mind after losing twice last season to a much better version of Murray St. Take them early.
