Si Woo Kim (50-1) captures the Sony Open as we hit our first outright of the season! He also won the American Express back in 2021 so he could be worth another look this week. In terms of the rest of the card, Corey Connors managed to finish inside the top 20 while both of our top 40 placements finished T41 unfortunately.
We begin the California Swing with a unique event, the American Express. The Farmer’s Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am also held in California, will take place in the coming weeks. Something to note is that 12 of the last 13 winners of the American Express played in at least one of the two Hawaiian events.
General Tournament Information:
- Dates: January 19th, 2023- January 22nd, 2023
- Location: La Quinta, California, United States
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- PGA West Stadium Course
- PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course
- La Quinta CC
- Sunday: PGA West Stadium Course
- Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- Field/ Cut: 156 Pros & 156 Amateurs | Top 65 and Ties – 54 Holes
- Purse/ Winner: $8,000,000 /$1,440,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: -7
- 2021: -4 (36 Holes)
- 2020: -9
PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (2 Rounds)
- Course: PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course
- Course Architect: Pete Dye (1986)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,187 yards
- Greens: Tifdwarf bermudagrass os/w Poa .110”
- Fairways: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda os/w ryegrass .400”
- Overseeded Rough: 1”
- Non-overseeded Rough: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda 2”
- Stimpmeter: 11.0 feet
- Bunkers: 90-plus
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,187 Yards):
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 7,191 Yards – RBC Heritage
- Colonial Country Club – 7,209 Yards – Charles Schwab Challenge
- Comparable Greens (Tifdwarf bermudagrass os/w Poa .110”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
- Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (1 Round)
- Course: PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course
- Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1987)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,147 yards
- Greens: TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa .110”
- Fairways: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda os/w rye .400”
- Rough: Forman bermudagrass 2’
- Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
- Bunkers: 90-plus
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 5 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,147 Yards):
- Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) – 7,123 Yards – Fortinet Championship
- PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,125 Yards – The Honda Classic
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 7,191 Yards – RBC Heritage
- Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa .110”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
- El Camaleón Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
La Quinta CC (1 Round)
- Course: La Quinta CC
- Course Architect: Lawrence Hughes (1959)
- Renovation: Damian Pazcuzzo (1999)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,060 yards
- Greens: Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed .105”
- Fairways: 328/common bermudagrass .400’
- Rough: Common bermudagrass 1.75’ (last cut is 3 days before tournament start).
- Stimpmeter: 11.5 feet
- Bunkers: 82
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,060 Yards):
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 7, 041 Yards – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 7, 041 Yards – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) – 7, 060 Yards – The RSM Classic
- Comparable Greens (Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed .105”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle Bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (4,773 sq. ft.):
- Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, January 19th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 2: Friday, January 20th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 3: Saturday, January 21st, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 4: Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 51 F, 8 mp/h SW, 52% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 51 F, 9 mp/h NNW, 35% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Sunny 53 F, 6 mp/h NNW, 30% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 52 F, 5 mp/h ENE, 35% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
This is a unique tournament for several reasons but let’s start with the obvious, the 3-course rotation. The players will play a different course for the first three days rotating between the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta CC. The PGA West facility will host three of the four rounds as the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course are both on the grounds. La Quinta Country Club is roughly a 5-mile drive from that facility and will be the only travel required for players during this event.
Given that the first three days are at different courses, the lone cut for the event will be made after 54 Holes and not the typical 36 Holes. In 2021, this event only took place at just two courses, so the cut was made after 36 which has skewed the cut line data. The historical cut line for this event has been around -8 after 54 Holes.
Another interesting variation is the incorporation of the Pro-Am structure. Each pro will be paired up with an amateur for the first three rounds. So the groupings for the first three days will feature two pros and two amateurs. Given the format, the pin positions will be in easier locations for the first three days.
18-Hole Record (Stadium Course): 61, Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021)
18-Hole Record (Nicklaus Tournament): 61, Will Zalatoris (Round 2, 2022)
18-Hole Record (La Quinta CC): 59, Adam Hadwin (Round 3, 2017)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
As previously mentioned, this is a unique format with three courses coming into play. Another added difficulty this week is that we only have Strokes Gained data for one of the courses, the PGA West Stadium course. That’s the only course that we’ll see twice so it’ll be the main point of emphasis this week.
Let’s start with the Nicklaus Tournament Course, it’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,147 yards in length. As seen by the yardage, it is one of the shortest and easiest courses on Tour.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
La Quinta is the easiest course on Tour. It’s a Par 72 that’s 7,060 yards which is extremely short. If any player wants to have a chance this week, they’ll need to take advantage of all the birdie opportunities this course offers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Lastly, let’s look at the PGA West Stadium course which is the host course for the week. It’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,187 yards in length. This is the most difficult course that these players will face this week. In addition to difficulty, PGA West is also the longest course of the three.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
The three possible course rotations will be as follows:
- R1: PGA West Stadium -> R2: La Quinta -> R3: Nicklaus Tournament
- R1: La Quinta -> R2: Nicklaus Tournament -> R3: PGA West Stadium
- R1: Nicklaus Tournament -> R2: PGA West Stadium -> R3: La Quinta
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards
- Proximity: 75-100 Yards
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
156 Players will compete in the American Express this week. 5 of the top 10 players in the world are in the field. Last year’s winner, Hudson Swafford will not be defending his title as he has joined the LIV Tour.
- Jon Rahm (+650), returns from a week break after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In two other starts this year, Rahm finished T8 (Hero World Challenge) and T4 (CJ Cup). He won his event back in 2018 when it was called the CareerBuilder Challenge. In his two other appearances at this event, he finished 6th (2019) and T14 (2022).
- Patrick Cantlay (+1100), has had a great start to the year finishing T2 and T16 in his two starts. He has some great course history finishing inside the top 10 in his last three starts at this event.
- Scottie Scheffler (+1100), has finished inside in the top 10 in his last four starts on Tour. His best finish during that span was 2nd at the Hero World Challenge. Scheffler has competed in this event three times before finishing 3rd/ MC/ T25.
- Tony Finau (+1200), won the Cadence Bank Houston Open back in November and has finished inside the top 10 in his last two starts since then. His best finish at The American Express was back in 2021 when he finished 4th.
- Will Zalatoris (+2000), finished T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in his lone start of the season. He made his debut at the American Express last year where he finished T6.
Previous Winners in the field: Si Woo Kim (’21), Andrew Landry (’20), Adam Long (’19), Jon Rahm (’18), Jason Dufner (’16), Bill Hass (’15, ’10), Brian Gay (’13), Jhonattan Vegas (’11), Charley Hoffman (’07)
Notable Withdraws: Chad Ramey, Chris Stroud, Kyle Stanley, Brian Gay, Joel Dahmen
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Patrick Cantlay: MC/ T9/ 2/ 9
- Adam Hadwin: T48/ T6/ 2/ T3/ T2/ T32/ T25
- Jon Rahm: T34/ 1/ 6/ T14
- Sungjae Im: T12/ T10/ T12/ T11
- Cameron Davis: T28/ T29/ 3
- Andrew Putnam: MC/ T17/ T34/ T10/ T21/ T14
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
- Beau Hossler: T20/ MC/ MC/ MC
Joel Dahmen: MC/ MC/ MC- Michael Block: MC/ MC/ MC
- Juan Sebastian Munoz: MC/ MC/ MC
- Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
- Danny Lee: T66/ MC/ T64/ T41/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
- Price: 175-1
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
- Price: 66-1
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
- Price: 200-1
- 2019: Adam Long (-26)
- Price: 600-1
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
- Price: 10-1
Picks (Outrights):
- Tony Finau (+1500) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.54 to win 8.10 Units
Tony Finau has been playing some of the best golf in his life. He won the Houston Open earlier this season then followed that up with top-10 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and Sentry Tournament of Champions. Finau ranks 2nd in SG: Total, 9th in SG: Tee to Green, 12th in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Off the Tee, and 7th in SG: Putting. He’s also extremely accurate off the tee which should benefit this week. His best finish at the American Express was in 2021 when he finished 4th. Outside of that, he placed T40 in 2022 and T14 in 2019.
- Will Zalatoris (+2000) – BetMGM/ DraftKings/ Caesars
- Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Will Zalatoris made his debut at The American Express last season where he finished T6. He gained strokes in every category besides putting (-0.72). He’s only played in one event this season as he was recovering from a back injury. Two weeks ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions he finished T11 struggling a bit with his irons. However, I think that could have been a little rust as when he’s dialed with his irons, he’s one of the best ball strikers on Tour. We’ve seen his putting improve at the end of last year and it seems to have carried over to this year. If he continues that into this week, he should have a great shot to win this event.
- Brian Harman (+4000) – BetMGM/ PointsBet
- Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Brian Harman has been close to winning this event before. He finished T3 last year and back in 2017 when it was named the CareerBuilder Challenge. Harman also finished inside the top 10 here in 2021. He’s been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 32 in each of his five starts on Tour this year. In two of those events, he finished runner-up. Harman’s a bit inconsistent with his putter but has gained strokes on the green in each of his last two starts at this event. His accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely to highlight his ball-striking ability. If he can putt well this week, he should be in contention come Sunday.
- Cameron Davis (+5000) – BetMGM
- Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Cam Davis will make his fourth appearance at the American Express this week. In his three previous starts here he’s finished T28th, T29th, and 3rd. Davis has played in five events to start the season making the cut in four of those events. Last week at the Sony Open he was great off the tee and on approach but struggled with the flat stick. However, if we look at his course history he’s gained strokes putting in each of his past three appearances here.
- Andrew Putnam (+6600) – PointsBet
- Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Andrew Putnam has made the cut in each of his nine starts on Tour this season. He’s also gained strokes putting in each of those events as well. Last week at the Sony Open, he finished T4 gaining over two strokes on the green. His best finish of the season was back in October at the ZOZO Championship where he placed T2. Putnam has played in this event six times before finishing inside the top 34 in each appearance outside of his debut back in 2015. The issue for Putnam has been his play off the tee where he ranks 183rd in strokes gained this season. However, he is accurate off the tee which is more important than distance this week given the short tracks.
- David Lipsky (+13000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
David Lipsky is coming off a T4 finish at the Sony Open gaining 1.42 strokes on approach. Before that, he withdraw from the RSM Classic for an undisclosed reason, finished T22 at the Houston Open, and T10 at the WWT Championship. Last season, he made his debut at the American Express finishing T14 gaining strokes in every category besides off the tee. He’s struggled on the greens in the past but has been trending in the right direction in that category as of late.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.50 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Cameron Young (+130) – DraftKings
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Cameron Young had a great rookie year with 5 second-place finishes. He’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory but based on his recent form, he’s not far off. In his five starts this season he’s finished T53/ T23/ 3/ T7/ T13. Young made his debut at the American Express last year placing T40. In that debut he lost strokes in every major category besides one, putting. He’s a great fit for this course and his ball striking has only improved since the last time he was here.
- Si Woo Kim (+175) – BetRivers
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Si Woo Kim is coming off his first PGA Victory since winning the 2021 American Express. We’re going back to him this week given how well he fits this course. He’s great with his approach game ranking 3rd in strokes gained and also ranks 6th in strokes gained tee to green. Off the tee, he’s extremely accurate which has been a path to victory here. He struggles putting but has gained strokes on the green in each of his four appearances at this event.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Adam Hadwin (+100) – Bet365
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Adam Hadwin has finished inside the top 40 in six of his seven appearances at the American Express. Hadwin’s putting has been phenomenal at this event gaining strokes on the green every time he’s played here. His approach game is trending in the right direction and has been great at this event in the past. He’s coming off a bit of a layoff with his last start coming back in November at the Houston Open where he finished T7. Hadwin’s game fits this event very well and given his recent form, he should have success here again.
- Callum Tarren (+210) – Bet365
- Risk: 0.50 to win 1.05 Units
Callum Tarren is coming off a T2 finish at The RSM Classic where he gained 1.84 strokes on approach. His putting has also been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in the last five* events. He made his debut at The American Express last year and missed the cut struggling on the greens. Tarren ranks well in most categories besides his short game but gained strokes around the green in his last two events. He fits the course well and given the recent form of his putting and short game, he should fair much better in his second appearance at this event.
Just Missed: Rickie Fowler (+110), Wyndham Clark (+115), Luke List (+150)
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.50 Units
Total Risk on the American Express: 5.00 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
