NHL Preview & Picks – January 3rd, 2023

By

-

January 3, 2023

We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. There are several important matchups including Kraken/ Oilers, Flames/ Jets, Hurricanes/ Rangers, and Stars/ Kings. I break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

Game Previews:

Calgary Flames @ Winnipeg Jets

Time: 8:00 PM ET
Calgary Flames: 18-13-7, 3rd Pacific (7-6-5 Away)
Winnipeg Jets: 23-13-1, 2nd Central (13-6-0 Home)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Calgary Flames	-120	-140	-1.5 (+195)	o5.5 (-120)
Winnipeg Jets	+100	+120	+1.5 (-230)	u5.5 (+100)

The Flames have won five of their last seven games including their last two. They haven’t been great offensively but they’ve been able to win low-scoring games thanks to the combination of Markstrom and Vladar. In their previous matchup against the Jets, they won 3-2.

Winnipeg has won their last two games but lost their previous three before that. The Jets had a great start to the year but have slowed down since then. The main reason for this is due to their depleted lineup without Blake Wheeler, Mason Appleton, and Cole Perfetti.

CGY: J. Markstrom (12-9-4), 2.78 GAA, .895 SV%

WPG: C. Hellebuyck (18-9-1), 2.32 GAA, .928 SV%

Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings

Time: 10:00 PM ET
Dallas Stars: 23-9-6, 1st Central (12-5-3 Away)
Los Angeles Kings: 21-13-6, 2nd Pacific (11-6-2 Home)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
Dallas Stars	-125	-125	-1.5 (+195)	o6.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Kings	+105	+105	+1.5 (-230)	u6.0 (-110)

The Stars have won a season-high four games in a row. They start a two-game road trip tonight against the Kings and will face Anaheim tomorrow. In their previous matchup against the Kings this year, they won 5-2.

Los Angeles is on a bit of a hot streak, winning six of their last eight games. The Kings have struggled on the Penalty Kill allowing a goal in each of their last ten games. Pheonix Copley has also emerged as the new potential new number one for the Kings this year going 8-1-0 in his first nine starts.

DAL: J. Oettinger (17-5-3), 2.36 GAA, .921 SV%

LAK: P. Copley (8-1-0), 2.58 GAA, .905 SV%

Picks(s):

Tampa Bay Lightning/ Chicago Blackhawks over 6.5 (-109) – Barstool
- Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units

(Wait until Elliot is confirmed as the starter for Tampa Bay)

This should be a high-scoring matchup when looking at these teams’ home/ away splits. Tampa Bay’s offense has been solid as of late while Chicago has surrendered at least three goals in their past ten games. As I alluded to above, the Blackhawks average almost a goal more at home so if they can get at least two, I think this game goes over the total. The expected goaltender matchup should also help (Elliot/ Stalock).

Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units

Seattle just ended their three-game skid on Sunday defeating the Islanders 4-1 at home. The Oilers have struggled to string wins together this who year but have won three of their past five. Seattle’s offense has been great this year while they’ve been subpar defensively. This should hurt them tonight, especially against Edmonton’s offense. The Oilers will also have an advantage in net with Skinner getting the start for them.

William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.25 to win 0.26 Units

He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Blues also rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.

Lean(s):

New York Islanders (-110) – FanDuel

Other Player Prop(s) to Target:

Thomas Chabot over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and 4.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.

Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-103) – Caesars
- He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 SOG and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.

Michael Bunting over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125) – FanDuel
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 SOG and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blues also rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 26th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

January 3rd CBB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

-

January 3, 2023

With CFB winding down, CBB is now the main priority. I carry a 37-31-1(54.4%) record into this portion of the season and will upgrade all plays to 1u moving forward. Tonight, I’m rolling with 4 plays looking to break out in a big way.

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(1u): St John’s +2.5 vs Marquette–5:30 PM CT

Marquette picked up a massive road win at Villanova on Saturday to add to their already impressive resume. With that said, playing your second straight road game against a St John’s team that ranks 3rd in the country in pace sets up as a horrible matchup. What the Johnnies lack in raw shooting ability, they make up for with their pace alone. For as efficient as Marquette has been offensively, they have not upheld that same standard on the defensive end of the floor. Marquette allows far too many second-chance points, ranking just 233rd in defensive rebounding %. In comparison, St John’s is a Top 30 offensive rebounding team in America.

I like to play against teams in their second straight road game; I think Marquette’s defensive shortcomings get exposed in this particular matchup.

*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Michigan State UNDER 132.5–6 PM CT

While I can’t trust Nebraska’s offense against virtually anybody in the Big10, this defense is legit. The Cornhuskers held a high-flying Iowa offense to just 50 points last week. Prior to that, they held Creighton to 53 and Purdue to just 65. Michigan State is a poor offensive rebounding team that relies too much on elite shotmaking to pull away in these types of games; while they shoot 38% from deep, they shoot less than 45% from the field. Still, Tom Izzo has this defense in tune early in the season, as the Spartans are a Top 60 defensive rebounding team and good on the perimeter. Given Nebraska shoots just 30% from deep and 65.5% from the FT line, I’ll absolutely trust them in this spot.

A big consideration in this play is pace. Nebraska ranks 280th in adjusted tempo, while Michigan State ranks 301st. I like this to be an ugly game that stays Under the total.

*CBB(1u): Kentucky 1H -5.5 vs LSU–7 PM CT

LSU’s 12-1 start needs quite a bit of context. First off, the Tigers have played just 3 Power 5 opponents all season. More importantly, however, is the fact that LSU has yet to play a true road game this season. In just Matt McMahon’s first season and with a roster composed solely of transfers, we’ve yet to see how this team responds in tough road environments.

By contrast, this Kentucky team has played Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, UCLA, and Missouri already this season. I know sentiment is low on Calipari’s squad right now, but the Wildcats undoubtedly hold an edge on both ends of the floor tonight.

Early in this game and in an unfamiliar environment, I think we see LSU at their worst.

*CBB(1u): Minnesota TT UNDER 56 @ Wisconsin–8 PM CT

Possessions will be at a premium here as both teams run at a bottom 50 pace in America. Wisconsin in particular will slow this game to a snail’s pace while playing their style of staunch defense. Minnesota endured a similar matchup a few weeks ago and put up just 51 vs Mississippi State…and that was in their home arena. This is also the same Gophers offense that put up just 53 against a fast-paced, poor defensive team in DePaul earlier in the year.

In total, the Gophers shoot just 42.5% from the field, 59% from the FT line, and will have virtually no leeway for second-chance points tonight. That’s more than enough for me to trust the Badgers’ defense in this spot.

NBA Premiums, 1.3

By

Chris R. Farley

-

January 3, 2023

Firstly, let’s all hope Damar Hamlin has a full recovery, although I’m seeing mixed messages about that possibility. That was scary.

Back to more trivial things – yesterday was a great example of how my betting life is going. We went 4-2 in the NBA, but it should have been a unit-altering, massive 5-1 night. Instead, the Warriors (-3) blew a huge lead in the 3rd QTR and only ended up winning by 2 points in double OT – hahahahahahahaha… are you fucking kidding me? Hopefully everyone got -1.5.

Oh and then USC is up 15 points with 3 minutes left and they lose. Just awesome. I guess we did get a good beat on the Cavs -3, but the bad to good beats are 10-1 at this point. Moving on! Not a ton of value on today’s board but I’ll take the below:

Kings/Jazz under 241.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Jazz -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Kings are a surprising 12-5 ATS to the under when they’re on the road and this is their 5th game in 7 days. The Jazz tend to limit teams a little better at home in elevation (8-9 to the under at home) and these two teams had WAY too many easy baskets in the paint in their first matchup a few days ago. Adjustments will be made and I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll score 138 points in the paint again (55% of all the points)– that’s just too easy. Unless both teams shoot over 40% from beyond the arc, this one goes under, and the Jazz had a scheduling advantage and should cover in a revenge spot.

NBA Premiums, 1.2

By

Chris R. Farley

-

January 2, 2023

What could have been a 3-1 night turned into a 1-3 night in the NBA last night, what else is new, but that won’t deter me from thinking we’ll have much better results moving forward. Doing everything I can on my end to make sure that happens.

Onto the plays!

Cavs -3 (-115), to win 1.5 units

I just think Cleveland is the better team. They were atypically inefficient from the field and still beat Chicago, at Chicago, the other night. Now they’re back home, Mobley should be back, and even if he and Garland aren’t back, D. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind and Jarrett Allen is their most important piece. The Bulls depend too much on DeRozan and I think Cleveland’s defense can clamp down even better after seeing their offense so recently. Like a Cavs’ cover.

Warriors -3 (-110), to win 2.5 units

The Hawks, especially without Clint Capela, don’t have any real advantage against the Warriors offensively. And the Hawks are just SO much worse on the road. This is a forgiving line for a true disparity in momentum right now; I think this is another big Jordan Poole game for the win and cover at home.

Pacers/Raptors over 231.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Raptors just aren’t playing good defense these days, it just is what it is, and a team like the Pacers can really give them problems. Indiana had no problem serving up a very efficient game and 118 points in their last meeting, a win for Indiana, and this one should look very similar. The only difference– the Raptors should be MUCH more efficient from the floor. Toronto loses 10% of their effective FG % when Siakam, Barnes, and OG Anunoby aren’t on their floor. Barnes had a terrible night and they were without Siakam in their first meeting/loss to Indiana in November. Indiana runs with pace at home, and Toronto usually follows the other team’s pace on the road. A lot of ingredients for an over — I had this at 230 but I’m still taking it for 1 unit.

Rockets 1Q +2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Rockets 1H +4 (-110), to win 1 unit

This is right around where I have the line but that’s what confuses me about this for the sportsbooks. Dallas just thrashed Houston a few games ago and now they’re right back at it, they’re 4th time this season, and they’re only 7.5 point favorites on the road. After Eric Gordon openly criticized his team, I expect Houston to come out with more gusto and energy, and I think Dallas is probably sick and tired of playing the Rockets, quite frankly. A divisional foe that won’t go away, most of their games are closer than advertised and Houston can keep this close early. Value on the dog.

Clippers -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

I have no idea why this line is so short. The Heat are way more banged up than the Clippers, and LAC’s main stars are healthy and at home in a revenge game. The Clippers are off a few bad road losses too– this is a nice opportunity to get-right against a team that really hasn’t found its footing on either side of the ball. Love the Clippers tonight.

NBA Early Premiums, 1.2

By

Chris R. Farley

-

January 1, 2023

Warriors -3 (-110), to win 2.5 units

The Hawks, especially without Clint Capela, don’t have any real advantage against the Warriors offensively. And the Hawks are just SO much worse on the road. This is a forgiving line for a true disparity in momentum right now; I think this is another big Jordan Poole game for the win and cover at home.

Cavs -3 (-115), to win 1.5 units

I just think Cleveland is the better team. They were atypically inefficient from the field and still beat Chicago, at Chicago, the other night. Now they’re back home, Mobley should be back, and even if him and Garland aren’t back, D. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind and Jarrett Allen is their most important piece. The Bulls depend too much on DeRozan and I think Cleveland’s defense can clamp down even better after seeing their offense so recently. Like a Cavs’ cover.

January 2nd CFB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

-

January 1, 2023

Sitting at 8-6, +1.95u here in Bowl Season, I’m rolling with 2 plays for Monday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Tulane +2 vs USC–Noon PM CT

After forcing turnovers at an elite rate bailed them out all season, USC’s defense was finally exposed in the Pac-12 Championship vs Utah. We knew their pass defense was shaky entering that matchup, but not even I as a Utah bettor expected the Utes to run for 6.4 YPC on the Trojans. Tulane’s offense is similar to Utah’s in a lot of ways, but the Green Wave have an even stronger running game; Tyjae Spears ran for 6.5 YPC and 15 TD’s this season. QB Michael Pratt is not a world beater, but a 5:1 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 Y/A mark is plenty for me to trust him in this matchup. I’ll concede that USC is as healthy as they’ve been in awhile on this side of the ball, but we’ve seen the red flags all season. I like Tulane’s balance and, while they might not be high-flying, think they will sustain and finish drives.

Betting against this USC offense is tough to do, but this unit will be at far less than full strength. WR1 Jordan Addison opted out, and probably more importantly, they will be without two mainstays along their OL. In just Lincoln Riley’s first season, I don’t believe the Trojans have the quality depth at OL to soften the blow of those losses. Caleb Williams is a special player; I’m not going to talk you off of that. However, I also believe this is one of the best defenses he’s seen all year(actually THE best according to my power ratings). While pass rush is not a staple of this Green Wave defense, I give them the slight edge up front due to USC’s injury situation. Specifically, though, the Green Wave have been staunch against the run and pass all season; they held RB’s Deuce Vaughn, Frank Gore Jr, and Keaton Mitchell to their worst days of the season. One thing we saw in the Pac12 Championship was how much USC misses RB Travis Dye; replacement Austin Jones was held to just 2.3 YPC vs the Utes. I think Tulane will win handily vs the run and force USC to be one-dimensional.

Caleb Williams will get his, but when it’s all said and done, Tulane is the more balanced and complete team.

*CFB(1u): Purdue +15.5 vs LSU–Noon PM CT

I have been adamant that LSU is one of the most overvalued teams in CFB. While they had quite a bit of success in Tiger Stadium, this team is just 1-5 ATS away from Baton Rouge(I’m 4-0 fading them in this spot). Purdue might not be at full strength, but this number is a bit silly.

The biggest knock on this LSU team is their poor OL play. QB Jayden Daniels has been sacked 4 or more times on 6 separate occasions this year(it would’ve been 7 had he not exited vs Georgia), and that’s despite Daniels being a very mobile QB. I think LSU’s gotten the most out of their run game given they lack elite talent at the RB position, but Purdue’s run defense is quite staunch. The Boilermakers held Illinois to 102 yds rushing, Maryland to 72 yds rushing, Minnesota to 44 yds rushing, and Penn State to 98 yds rushing. Purdue starts to loosen up and become more attackable in their secondary, but I don’t view LSU has some high-flying passing game. Daniels threw for just 7.5 Y/A this season, and LSU is without 2 of its top 3 WR’s for this game.

Purdue will be without QB Aidan O’Connell and top WR Charlie Jones as they opted out. In steps Austin Burton at QB; Burton doesn’t present much of a threat in the deep passing game, but he has completed over 70% of his passes during stops at UCLA and Purdue and gives the Boilermakers a high floor in O’Connell’s absence. Purdue finally found balance in their offense this year in the form of freshman RB Devon Mockobee(5.1 YPC, 9 TD’s), and I think the Boilermakers can establish that part of their offense in this matchup. We saw LSU’s run defense deteroirate towards the end of the season, highlighted by when they allowed nearly 300 yards on the ground to lowly Texas A&M. I haven’t loved this secondary for much of the year and don’t think Burton is an incompetent replacement at QB.

I’m 4-0 fading the Tigers in this role… let’s add to it.

NBA Premiums, 1.1.23

By

Chris R. Farley

-

January 1, 2023

Alright ladies and gents, it’s JANUARY. Idk if I’ve ever experienced a crueler month than December 2022 in my NBA betting career, but I have renewed hope in a new calendar year. This is usually where the NBA (finally) starts making sense.

In that vein, I like a few more plays than usual today. Let’s get it.

Celtics 1Q -0.5 (-105 on FD), to win 1 unit

Celtics/Nuggets 1H O119 (-108 at FD), to win 1.5 units

The New Year usually brings out the best in everyone, which means we should see a great version of both the Nuggets and Celtics today. Thing is, Denver usually overwhelms teams early at home but I don’t think they can do that to Boston. The Celtics defense is elite and their team chemistry is back to a sky-high level and that should mean early success that’s jarring for Denver’s average defense. Eventually the Nuggets will go on a run and inflate the score, so we’ll take an early over, too.

Kings/Grizzlies under 240.5 (-110), to win 2 units

This total is too high– it’s only there because of the surge in points we’ve seen lately in the NBA, but only squares are taking the over today. The Grizzlies have been winning with their defense lately; they’re the #1 team in DEF EFF over their last 5 games, while the Kings have fallen out of the top 10 in OFF EFF. Memphis has been a top 10 defense all season at home and the Kings’ pace is slowing. They match up well against each other, too — two feisty Western teams who can make life difficult for similarly built, smaller lineups. Give me the under for 2 units.

Wizards/Bucks over 226 (-110), to win 1 unit

Maybe it’s simply the absence of Jrue Holiday lately but the Bucks’ defense hasn’t looked elite at all. Bradley Beal should be back today, which is a huge offensive boost for Washington, but even if he doesn’t, the Wizards are a good perimeter team and the Bucks have struggled defending that area. Giannis can dominate again, too– like the over.

NBA Premiums, 12.31

By

Chris R. Farley

-

December 31, 2022

Happy New Year’s Eve, folks! Decent day yesterday. Better today, and even better incoming in 2023- let’s gooo!

Clippers -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Clippers have been playing some great basketball and while you can say the same about the Pacers, they’re not on the same level. LAC matches up really well against the Pacers defensively, who don’t do much in the mid-range. The Clippers are experts at defending in the paint and the perimeter, and I expect them to show out today before they return back home.

Nets/Hornets over 237.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Hornets have been moving at the fastest pace in the NBA with LaMelo back and the Charlotte defense doesn’t have any chance to stop Brooklyn’s superior offense. I think this goes well into the 240s.

Pelicans +6 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Better spot for the Grizzlies, but this is too many points for a really good Pelicans squad, who’s feeling themselves right now. This series is tied 1-1, and Memphis has a game tomorrow night. I have this at Grizzlies -3.5, so I need to take it.

Heat/Jazz over 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

This total is again too low and feels like more of a “Heat total,” instead of what we think will be a fast-paced game because of how proficient the Jazz are, especially at home, running in transition. The Heat will be exhausted after facing a superior offense in Denver last night, too.

NFL Week 17 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 31, 2022

LA Rams vs LA Chargers -6.5 O/U 40.5

The battle of the LAs is on, and I think that it is a pretty interesting game. The funny thing this week about capping, is that motivation is starting to be a factor. The Chargers clinched a playoff spot on Monday night with an easy win vs a coach-less and quarterback-less Colts team. The question that I have is, how motivated should the Chargers be in this situation? The best that they can do is move into the top wildcard spot which puts them on the road against likely a hot Jaguars team. It’s better than the Bills or Bengals but it’s not like they won’t have to play them at some point anyways. The Chargers are finally getting healthy and it has shown well, but does that warrant them laying 6.5 points in essentially a neutral game vs their city rivals? I am really like what Shawn McVey is doing with Baker Mayfield towards the end of the season and the super bowl champs are trying to save face. The Chargers only rank 19th in offensive EPA while the Rams are 29th. The Bolts also only 15th in defensive EPA while the Rams rank 16th. This game should be much closer than 6.5 points and I also see some serious scoring. Take the Rams and the over.

Rams +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Over 40.5 – 2 stars

Carolina vs Tampa -3.5 O/U 40.5

What do you do when two bad teams play each other? You take the points. The Buccaneers are more fraudulent than Sam Bankmen-fried and Bernie Madoff volunteering at a soup kitchen. Tampa Bay’s strength used to be stopping the run. This year, due to all of their injury woes, Tampa only ranks 19th in opponent rush EPA while the Panthers rank 7th at 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Carolina ranks 22nd in overall offensive EPA to Tampa’s 23rd. They also bust the Bucs ranking 17th in defensive EPA to Tampa’s 19th. My metrics have Tampa winning this game by 2.7 points, but we also have to remember that Tampa just lost their best offensive tackle in Josh Wells. I see paths to victory here for the Panthers. Grab the points and if you can’t get the hook, wait it out.

Carolina +3.5 – 2 stars

Teaser: Cleveland to +8.5 with the Steelers to +8.5 – 2 stars

NBA Premiums, 12.30 and IMPORTANT NOTE

By

Chris R. Farley

-

December 30, 2022

IMPORTANT NOTE: Hi All! From now through the rest of the NBA season, my analysis will be much shorter with every pick. We’re in the final trimester with my wife and, for many reasons, life has been mentally taxing and insanely busy. You can always ask me questions by shooting me a DM on either Instagram or Twitter, and I’ll get to it when I can, but to save myself some time/pressure, I need to abbreviate these emails. Thank you as always for your support.

As a reminder: Many of you are approaching the end of your subscriptions, and although it’s been a rocky start to a very unpredictable NBA season, January-March has always been our most profitable. We hit over 65% for more than 45 units last season in that span. I intend to do the same this season.

HEY – maybe we can see some sensical things tonight in the NBA. Onto the picks:

Wizards -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Magic are sitting almost everyone/five of their players are suspended after their controversial loss to the Pistons the other night, while Washington is finding their footing thanks to some cohesive basketball and a team that’s finally at full health.

T-Wolves/Bucks 1Q under 56.5 (-105), to win 1 unit

Giannis under 55.5 PAR (-125), to win 1 unit

Both of these teams allowed some crazy end-of-game offense to their opponents two days ago and it screwed them both. Expect more defense from the jump. Giannis will look to incorporate others on a mega-inflated PAR line after dropping 70+ PAR in the last contest. That’s not sustainable.

Heat/Nuggets over 223.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

This is a Heat total. The line is too low for a Nuggets’ team that’s absolutely prolific on their home court. A few important Nuggets’ players have questionable tags but many sat out in their last road game against Sacramento. Expect them at full strength and at their best against a Miami defense that’s yet to find its defense this year.