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An 0-1 Monday drops me to 19-16-1 on the CBB season. I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*CBB(0.5u): Furman/NC State OVER 155–5:30 PM CT
Furman is a well-oiled machine offensively that can absolutely hang in this game. The Paladins shoot over 50% from the floor, 74% from the FT line, and hold a very good 1.5 assist/turnover ratio. With that said, they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end of the floor, having allowed 75 or more to 3 teams bottom 150 offenses in the country already this season(Old Dominion, South Carolina State, High Point). NC State runs at a maniacally fast pace offensively, a big reason as to why they average over 80 PPG.
I see these teams having success offensively for different reasons, but nonetheless, I think this is a close game where pace and efficiency will be on our side. Over is the play.
*CBB(0.5u): Texas Tech -16.5 vs Eastern Washington–7 PM CT
I really don’t like this spot for Eastern Washington. The Eagles won @ Cal last Wednesday before losing a heartbreaker at South Dakota State on Saturday, making this their 3rd straight road game and easily their toughest matchup of the season. On the other hand, Texas Tech is well-rested, having played just twice over the past 2 weeks; both of those games came at home. Last time we saw the Red Raiders, they put up a less than desirable performance in a 7-point win over lowly Nicholls State.
We know the Red Raiders are staunch defensively, but the shooting has been better than given credit for(48% FG percentage, 35.5% 3pt FG percentage). Meanwhile, Eastern Washington shoots less than 30% from beyond the arc and less than 70% from the FT line. With no look ahead in mind, I think Mark Adams’ crew comes out with a sense of urgency and wins this game by 20+.
Philly’s defense has really devolved (21st last 5 games) and the Kings just had a terrible game against the Knicks, couldn’t find ANY offensive rhythm. Sacramento shot just 10-39 from three, 23-35 from the free throw line, and turned the ball over 16 times in that game against the Knicks- I expect positive regression tonight. There’s been a dropoff without DeAaron Fox the last 2 games, for sure, and players like Malik Monk, who’s been great off the bench, haven’t been efficient. Fox should return tonight– he practiced Monday. Philly also hasn’t really beaten any good teams lately. They’re also not great at defending the fast break (SAC is 5th in FB points), while SAC isn’t great at defending in the paint or defending the 3 point shot. OVER: I have it at 232.
Warriors/Bucks 1Q over 59.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Bucks are scoring over 30 ppg in the 1Q over their last 6 contests, starting off hot and fast in every game. They’ve always matched up well with the Warriors, who can’t defend Giannis worth a damn unless the Bucks are in a really weird spot. This isn’t that spot. They’re at home off a sleepy game against Houston where Giannis was just off the entire game. I expect the big man to eat today, the pace to be high, and both to push for points early. Milwaukee’s defense can step up late, only taking an early 1Q over.
Pelicans -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pelicans TT over 118 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pels/Jazz 3rd QTR over 60.5 (-104), to win 1.5 units
Yea I just don’t see any reason to play off the Pels right now. They’re a team to play ON, functioning at a very high level right now behind a determined Zion, really good defense (especially interior defense), and really high chemistry. They lost in their first matchup, very early in the season, against the Jazz and will look to get some revenge tonight. Valanciunas and Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram all had weird games in that first battle, plus it was way before they developed this kind of chemistry. Who these teams are now compared to who they were nearly 2 months ago? Different universe. Both of these squads come out of halftime scoring more efficiently, both averaging 30 ppg or more in the 3rd period, and I love that angle tonight. The first half could be fiesty and lower scoring than expected but I think things break loose later in the game. The Pels had a poor shooting performance overall in their first game against Utah and the Jazz defense has really declined. Give me a bunch of overs and a win for the Pels – a team to be reckoned with right now!
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a wonderful sports! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend as well as some listener questions. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 15! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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No Jakob Poetl, no real front court for the Spurs. Allen should dominate– hopefully he doesn’t need the 4th QTR because CLE could throttle San Antonio.
Rudy Gobert over 12.5 rebounds (-125), to win 1 unit
Gobert averages around 12 rebounds per game but in their last contest against Portland, they were out-rebounded 45-28. I mean the Timberwolves average OVER 50 rebounds per game so that might be one of their worst marks of the season. Needless to say, rebounding will be a key focus on tonight’s rematch and that’s primarily Rudy’s role. OVER.
Coming off a 9-6-1 week in CBB, I’m back with 1 play looking to start the week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Gonzaga -32 vs Northern Illinois–8 PM CT
Northern Illinois is the exact style of team that is going to get run off the floor vs the Gonzaga’s of the world. The Huskies are wretched on both ends of the floor, yet they run at the 50th fastest pace in the country. Poor efficiency + extending this game unnecessarily is going to lead to a crooked number.
This is a dream opponent for the Zags after playing one of the toughest schedules in the country up to this point. We all know they’ll score at will here, but what could maybe be argued is whether they’ll get stops at a consistent rate to cover this big number. Not only is Northern Illinois a poor shooting team(less than 44% from the floor), but they do none of the little things right; a 65% FT percentage and 0.7 assist/turnover ratio is a putrid combination.
Finally a winning 2-1 Sunday; let’s keep it rolling this entire week!
Hawks/Grizz over 228.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Hawks won’t be interested in playing defense in a back to back, they’ll be pissed and aggressive after last night’s loss, the Grizz are explosive at home. One feeds the other.
T-Wolves +5 (-105), to win 1 unit
T-Wolves ML (+165), to win 0.825 units
Minnesota should have won this battle on Saturday. Correct, redeem, cover and probably win.
Celtics -3.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Big response game for Boston after Jayson Tatum really shit the bed on Saturday against Golden State. I imagine they’re less worried about LAL tomorrow so they should be all-in in this contest. Paul George will have to have the game of his life to keep up with Boston, IMO. Kawhi still doesn’t look quite like himself, even when playing more minutes, and John Wall is a defensive liability. Celtics take it and cover.
Hawks/Grizz over 228.5 (-110), to win 2 units The Hawks won’t be interested in playing defense in a back to back, they’ll be pissed and aggressive after last night’s loss, the Grizz are explosive at home. One feeds the other.
T-Wolves +5 (-105), to win 1 unit
T-Wolves ML (+165), to win 0.825 units
Minnesota should have won this battle on Saturday. Correct, redeem, cover and probably win.
I almost made a video this morning so you guys can see how authentically frustrated I am with betting the NBA lately. I don’t give a fuck what anyone says, we’re facing some absurd results and the ball just keeps bouncing the wrong way.
We went 4-5 last night in NBA picks, but it very well should have been at least 6-3:
We lost two bets (T-Wolves +5.5 and LAC/WIZ U220.5) by 0.5 points each. Sweet.
The Celtics, statistically the best offense we’ve ever seen in the NBA over the course of the last month, couldn’t hit a basket in the 1st QTR in a REVENGE spot at Golden State, resulting in two more absurd losses (Celtics 1Q, 1Q O60.5).
The first half over easily cashed, further evidence that we had the right angle early. Just another big fuck you from the association.
If anyone was on the opposite side of those bets and thought they were sharp, it would take everything my momma taught me to not slap them right across their face.
Needless to say, if I turn this shit around and hit another season over 56%, it’ll be even more remarkable. Luckily we still have 5+ months of action this season, and that’s exactly what I plan to do. ONTO ANOTHER FUCKING DAY, and yes – we have some Sunday NBA bets.
Suns/Pelicans under 227 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The way that last game ended, with a disrespectful Zion dunk, makes me think this contest will be a very defensive affair. With animosity growing, this should have a playoff feel, and both teams shot exceptionally well in their first contest (both over the field, including over 50% from 3-point land for Phoenix two nights ago). This one slows down as defense becomes the priority on both ends.
Kings/Knicks under 232 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Knicks have only allowed 100 ppg the last 5 games and, even better, they’ve only permitted a ridiculous 91 ppg in their last three contests. The Kings have regressed on offense a bit lately, averaging 114 ppg in their last 9 games. Is that a low total? No – but it’s lower than what they’ve been offering and they’re in the middle of a really tough road trip. De’Aaron Fox is likely to be OUT of this contest, too, which should bring down Sacramento’s scoring ability substantially. Under for me.
Lakers -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
There’s also some animosity between these two teams. Last time they faced, back in November last season, Isaiah Stewart and Lebron James almost threw hands. Detroit is without Cade Cunningham again tonight, a contributor they really need to compete with good teams, and it’s their first game back home after a long road trip. That’s usually a flat spot, while the Lakers need to get-right after dropping 3 straight. They’ve played MUCH better the past few weeks and this is a great spot for them to feel good before they head back home. Road trips can create some magic, especially at the end, and I think the Lakers’ OGs assert some dominance tonight.
