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LA Lakers at Indiana +2 1/2 (O/U 240 1/2)
This will be a position play, where I like the points. Indiana losers of 9/10, head back home and finally land an ‘easier’ opponent. 8 of their last 9 games they have faced a current 1/2 seed in 5 of them. Playing Milwaukee twice, Memphis twice, Denver, and going on the road to Phoenix and OKC. All tough, physical teams! The Pacers are on 3 days rest and hopefully get back potential All-Star Tyrese Haliburton, which could be the boost they need!
Now the Lakers are playing their 4th game in 6 days, including 2 OT’s. They come off a game where they shot 52% from the field, I don’t see them duplicating that process tonight. In the previous 4 games they shot 39, 45, 44 and 44%, where that won’t be enough to beat a hungry Pacer team still in the playoff hunt!
Pacers +2 1/2 (Caesars -110) 0.75 unit
Charlotte at Chicago -6 (O/U 237)
I will be doubling up on this bet from 2 nights ago where we were unsuccessful. Heading into this past Tuesday night, the Hornets have found themselves behind at Halftime in each of the previous 7 games, with an average margin of -10 points. The Bucks were unable to shut them down defensively and finished tied at half, breaking the streak. Now the Bulls have started hot, but have been unable to finish games. Being ahead in each of their last 6 at half, with a margin of +9.8 points.
The last meeting between these two, Chicago shot 41% from the field and 16% from three. I don’t see Charlotte being able to shut them down again, the Bulls average 36.8% from three, and 48.9% from the field. The Hornets hit the glass hard averaging 12 offensive boards a game and that’s where the difference will be, 2nd chance points! The Bulls rank 6th, giving up 9.7 offensive boards a game. If this stat holds true, Chicago will have no trouble handling Charlotte tonight!
*Unit Upgrade*
1H: Bulls -3 (DraftKings -115) 1.25 units
LA Clippers at Milwaukee -4 (O/U 230 1/2)
These are two teams that haven’t played much defense of late. The Clippers come in playing 11 games in 16 days, including 2 back to backs and 8/9 on the road. 4 of their last 5 games have gone over, and now face a Buck team shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 17 three’s per game there last 5!
The numbers favor both sides here, with the Clippers sporting a 18-11 record to the over on the road and Milwaukee going over 13 of their last 17 at home. I think this game screams points, the Clippers have a deep bench and will need them to stay in this game tonight.
This should be a fun big 10 game to with two desperate big 10 schools facing off. One is offensive oriented in Michigan ranking 54th in efficiency to Northwestern at 85th, and one is defensive oriented with Northwestern ranking 26th in efficiency to Michigan’s 85th. The x factor for Michigan is 7’1 center Hunter Dickenson, but if he is slowed down, then the wolverines are very venerable. The Cats will be able to throw 7’0 Matthew Nicholson and 6’9 Robbie Beran at him which will seriously throw the Wolverines off forcing them to take low percentage shots at the arc where they are only 34.3% accurate. The Wildcats have been trending up lately, and they are a much better rebounding team than Michigan. I like the Cats to cover the three at home. The Big 10 is only 35% ATS when they hit the road this year.
The NBA season is heating up, with tons of information and numbers to analyze. The All-Star break is just a few short weeks away! With that said I have a spot play tonight, I have been eyeing all week.
Toronto at Utah -3 (O/U 230 1/2)
The Raptors are finishing up a 5 game road trip tonight in Utah. Their last 9 games have included 3 back to back’s, with 7 of them on the road. 7 of the 8 they have been out-rebounded which doesn’t bode well for them facing a Jazz team who have out-rebounded 7 of their last 9 opponents. When Toronto is on 1 day rest, the over is 20-14, which tells me there is not a lot of defense being played. This Raptor team has to be tired and won’t be playing much defense tonight, look for Utah to jump ahead early.
On the flip side, Utah has enjoyed some downtime playing 7/9 games at home. 1 game in 6 days, and 3 games in 11 days. There on 3 days rest and have averaged 123 points in the following games. Utah shoots right around the league average of 47.3%, and Toronto comes in giving up north of 48% in 8/9 games. What Utah needs to avoid is turnovers, where they rank 23rd in the league and rely on there 3 ball. Where they rank in the top half and face a Raptor team who gives up 37.4% ranking 29th.
Lastly, I know their numbers aren’t great as home favorites, but have been better recently going 3-1 ATS, and covering them as 7 1/2, 8 and 8 1/2 point favorites!
We’re back with a Wednesday Free Play for everyone! So far this season we’re up 22.12 Units in college basketball. This week we’re off to a slow 1-4 start, but looking to add some more to the bankroll tonight with three games we like on the docket.
My Free play features the Radford Highlanders (14-9 Overall, 8-2 Big South) traveling to Clinton, South Carolina to take on the Presbyterian Blue Hose (5-18 Overall, 1-9 Big South). The line sits at Radford -5.5 with an Over/Under at 125. They will tip it off at 7:00 ET.
These teams are at opposite spectrums of the Big South Hierarchy. The Blue Hose have dropped eight in a row after getting a win in their first conference game of the season. Radford has won seven straight in Big South action after starting 1-2. Presbyterian struggles on offense averaging only 64.8 points per game. They are led by Freshman guard Jalen Forrest at 12.8 ppg. The Blue Hose are giving up 69.6 Points per contest. The Highlanders average 70.9 points per game while allowing 64.1. They will often roll with four guards on the floor at the same time and are led in scoring by Junior Guard DaQuan Smith at 12.9 points per contest.
The first meeting between these two teams this season was a 69-51 victory for Radford. The Highlanders were +9 on the glass in that contest and held the Blue Hose to 39.1% from the field while shooting 48.1%. Looking at tonight I think we will see much of the same trends. Presbyterian is dead last is effective FG% on both offense and defense in Big South Play. The unit on the floor that will decide this contest is certainly the Radford defense. They are in the top of most Big South defensive metrics and they should be able to suppress the Blue Hose offense again. Radford has also dominated the turnover metrics. They average 12.3 turnovers and 14.6 turnovers forced per game, that margin puts them first in the Big South and 51st the nation. The Blue Hose are 341st in the nation in quick points allowed off turnovers and if they don’t take care of the ball tonight the Highlanders will make them pay. This should be a slow paced game, but the Blue Hose just aren’t up to snuff in the half court against this Highlanders squad.
Max Homa (25-1) comes back from five strokes on Saturday to capture the Farmers Insurance Open! He gained over eight strokes on the entire field and picked up his sixth career PGA Tour victory. This gives us our second outright of 2023 after Si Woo Kim (50-1) won the Sony Open earlier this month. In addition to Homa, Jason Day (+115) and Luke List (+110) finished inside their respective placements.
We now move on to the AT&T Pebble Back Pro-Am where we cashed Tom Hoge at 60-1 last year. This is the third consecutive week that the PGA Tour will use a multi-course rotation. Players will have one round from Thursday to Saturday at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The final round will conclude at Pebble Beach on Sunday. In terms of the strength of the field, it is pretty weak with Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth headlining the event. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has 10 players in the top 50 competing this week while the Saudi International has 21 of the top 50 players in the field. Following this week we’ll see back-to-back ‘elevated’ events which should draw some of the bigger names due to the $20 Million prize pool.
The Tournament was founded back in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur. In 1986, the AT&T Corporation became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. The tournament has rotated between several courses throughout its history but has stuck with the current three since 2010. In 2019, the U.S. Open was hosted at Pebble Beach with Gary Woodland coming away victorious.
The starting field consists of 156 professionals and 156 amateurs. Some of the notable amateurs this year include Bill Murray, Josh Allen (who’s skipping the Pro Bowl), Aaron Rodgers, Gareth Bale, and Jason Bateman. On the first three days, the 156 two-man teams will play a better ball format while the pros also play an individual stroke format. On Sunday, the field will be cut to the top 65 low scorers and the low 25 teams.
In 2021, they shortened the course rotation to Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Along with other events that feature a Pro-Am format, they did not have any amateurs participate due to the pandemic.
72-Hole Record:
265, Brandt Snedeker (2015)
18-Hole Record (Pebble Beach Golf Links):
62, Tom Kite (Round 3, 1983), David Duval (Round 3, 1997), Patrick Cantlay (Round 1, 2021), Matthias Schwab (Round 2, 2022)
18-Hole Record (Spyglass Hill):
62, Phil Mickelson (Round 1, 2005), Luke Donald (Round 1, 2006)
18-Hole Record (Monterey Peninsula Country Club):
60, Sung Kang (Round 2, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For the third week in a row, we see a tournament that utilizes multiple courses. However, this will be the last rotating course set-up we see this season. Players will rotate between Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Thursday through Saturday, playing a round at each. Once they’ve completed a round at each course, the top 65 golfers and the best 25 Pro-Am teams will advance to Sunday for the final round which is held at Pebble Beach.
Unfortunately, we don’t have shot tracker data for Spyglass Hill or Monterey Peninsula so we’ll have to rely on Pebble Beach. While this is a slight inconvenience, Pebble Beach is the only course that will host two rounds.
Pebble Beach is only 6,972 yards making it one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. However, due to the layout, it forces many players to layup on most holes. This course is all about setting up your approach shot as it has some of the smallest greens on Tour averaging 3,500 sq. ft. With the smaller green sizes, Greens in Regulation percentages are lower than the Tour average here. Given the importance of approach shots, driving accuracy is another key stat to pay attention to. Besides the tough layout, limiting long drivers, and extremely small greens, the wind can also play a major role here as several holes are located on the coast. As of now, the wind doesn’t look to be too bad but if things change, it could make for a very difficult Sunday.
PEBBLE BEACH GOLF LINKS SCORECARD
HOLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
YARDS
381
516
404
331
195
523
106
428
504
3388
PAR
4
5
4
4
3
5
3
4
4
36
HOLE
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IN
YARDS
446
390
202
445
580
397
403
178
543
3584
PAR
4
4
3
4
5
4
4
3
5
46
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Spyglass Hill is the longest course of the three and can pose quite a challenge depending on the weather conditions. The four Par 5’s on the course are long but it does feature some very short Par 4’s that players will need to take advantage of. The greens average around 5,000 sq. ft. which in comparison, is much larger than Pebble. However, just like Pebble, second shots will be placed at a premium.
SPYGLASS HILL GOLF COURSE SCORECARD
HOLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
YARDS
595
349
172
370
203
446
549
399
431
3514
PAR
5
4
3
4
3
4
5
4
4
36
HOLE
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IN
YARDS
407
561
178
460
560
130
476
325
430
3527
PAR
4
5
3
4
5
3
4
4
4
36
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 4
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
This is the shortest course of the three that players will face this weekend. It features five Par 3’s, four Par 5’s, and, only nine Par 4’s, which is an unusual setup. Given the yardage and setup, it should be the easiest course which will emphasize going low here. All of the Par 5’s are reachable given a good shot off the tee and will provide plenty of scoring opportunities. The five Par 3’s are not particularly long either, so Par 3 Scoring will be another stat to check out this week.
MONTEREY PENINSULA COUNTRY CLUB SCORECARD
HOLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
YARDS
495
391
155
426
349
570
203
454
223
3266
PAR
4
4
3
4
4
5
3
4
3
34
HOLE
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IN
YARDS
544
182
599
417
190
425
500
430
381
3668
PAR
5
3
5
4
3
4
5
4
4
37
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11, 14
With all of the amateurs in the field, the course will be slightly less difficult than its potential in the first three days. Meaning, the rough won’t be grown out to its limits and the pin placements won’t be as hidden. However, on the final day where it’s just the pros, the pins will be in their most difficult positions creating an exciting finish. Even if the grounds crew and tournament limit some of the difficulty, they can’t control the wind, which will be the main line of defense for these three courses.
The three possible course rotations will be as follows:
156 Players will compete in the Farmers Insurance Open this week. Only 3 of the top 20 players in the world are in the field.
Jordan Spieth (11-1), has three consecutive top-10 finishes at the event in addition to winning here in 2017. He’s only made four starts on the PGA Tour this year, missing the cut in his last event at the Sony Open. In his three other starts, he’s finished T52 (CJ Cup), 15th (Hero World Challenge), and T13 (Sentry Tournament of Champions).
Matt Fitzpatrick (11-1), has finished T13/ T13/ T7 in his three starts on the PGA Tour this season. Last year, Fitzpatrick finished T6 at this event with his best finish coming the year prior (T5).
Viktor Hovland (12-1), made his first and only appearance at this event back in 202 where he finished T38. He’s made five starts on Tour this season finishing inside the top 21 in each event. During that stretch, Hovland won the Hero World Challenge which he also won the year prior.
Maverick McNealy (20-1), was runner-up at the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finished T5 at the 2020 edition. He’s been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 20 in five of his seven starts on Tour this season.
Tom Hoge (22-1), won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am which was his first career victory on the PGA Tour. He’s made nine starts this season finishing inside the top 20 in five of those events.
Seamus Power (22-1), won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship earlier this season. Since then, he’s finished inside the top 25 in each of three starts on the PGA Tour. Last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, Power finished T20 losing over a stroke on the greens.
Previous Winners in the field: Tom Hoge (’22), Nick Taylor (’20), Ted Potter Jr. (’18), Jordan Spieth (’17), Vaughn Taylor (’16), Jimmy Walker (’14), D.A. Points (’11)
Notable Withdraws: Davis Thompson, Vaughn Taylor
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Adam Long: MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Kim: MC/ MC
Andrew Landry: T70/ MC/ MC/ MC
Martin Trainer: T28/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
Price: 60-1
2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
Price: 18-1
2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
Price: 160-1
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
Price: 25-1
2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
Price: 500-1
Picks (Outrights):
Andrew Putnam (+3000) – PointsBet
Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Keith Mitchell (+4000) – PointsBet
Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Alex Smalley (+5000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Nick Taylor (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Taylor Moore (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Brendon Todd (+9000) – Caesars
Risk: 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Nate Lashley (+10000) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.04 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick had a breakout season last year capitalized with his victory at the U.S. Open. He’s played three times this season finishing inside the top 15 in each of those starts. In his most recent start, he finished T7 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions gaining strokes in every category. In the past two years, Fitzpatrick has found success at this event finishing T5 and T6. He’s accurate off the tee which should allow him to showcase his ball-striking ability. His putting has also improved from last season which is another positive for him. When you combine his current form, course history, and talent along with the weak field, Fitzpatrick is set up for success here.
Viktor Hovland (+115) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Viktor Hovland has been on a tear to start the season finishing inside the top 21 in each of his first five starts this season. During that stretch, he won the Hero World Challenge defending his title from the previous year. In terms of course history, he’s finished T5 and T4 in the last two years at Pebble Beach. Back in 2019, Viktor also finished T12th at the U.S. Open. Hovland has been known to have some issues on the green but has gained strokes putting in his last two appearances at this event. He’s also taken a step in the right direction in terms of his short game. Last season he was 191st in SG: Around the Green and this season, he currently ranks 39th.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Ben Griffin (+105) – Bet365
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Ben Griffin has a stellar start to his rookie year making the cut in each of his last nine starts. During that span, he has finished inside the top-40 in seven times. He’ll be making his debut at the event this week but despite a lack of course history, he seems like a course fit. He’s a great iron player ranking 41st in SG: Approach and gaining strokes in that category in his last nine starts. While Griffin does struggle on the green, he has shown he can lose strokes putting and still put together a solid performance.
Russell Knox (+105) – Bet365
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Russell Knox has made the cut in each of his eight starts on Tour. His best finish during that span was at the RSM Classic where he finished T21. Knox has some great course history here finishing inside the top 15 in three of his last five appearances at this event. His approach play has been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Knox’s play on the greens has also improved ranking 84th in strokes gained as compared to 179th last year. While he hasn’t had a tremendous start to the season this course fits him well.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: 5.04 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for January 31st and February 1st along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
Bo Horvat Trade
NHL Preview/ Picks – January 31st, 2023
Los Angeles Kings @ Carolina Hurricanes
Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets
NHL Preview/ Picks – February 1st, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres
Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
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Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Akron vs Buffalo +2.5 O/U 146
This should be a fun game to watch of offense vs defense. The Bulls under coach Jim Whitesell have been hot and cold this year, but they tend to show up a bit more at home where they are used to their backdrop. Buffalo is basically a middle of the road team both on offense and on defense who loves to speed up the game ranking 10th in average possession length. Akron on the other hand likes o play a bit more defense and slow the game down some ranking 271st in average possession length. They are a solid defensive team ranking 106th in defensive efficiency, but on offense, they do not shoot all that well ranking 241st in effective FG%. So why are they on a 6 game wining streak then? Smoke and mirrors, the Zips in their six last games played the bottom feeders of the MAC conference, while Buffalo is at least one of the better teams. Akron’s big problem is that they shoot a lot of threes ranking 37th in attempts while only ranking 249th in three point percentage. Buffalo has a decent perimeter defense ranking 120th in opponent adjusted three point percentage. Buffalo’s strength of schedule ranks 109th to Akron’s ranking 284th. Take the Bulls.
Buffalo +2.5 – 2 stars
Northwestern vs Iowa -7 O/U 149.5
Now I am not the kind of guy who likes to bet Iowa unders. The speed in which they play is very fast, and tend to lack on the defensive side of the ball. What does that mean for Northwestern? Well, they matchup well vs Iowa. Their defensive efficiency ranks 22nd in the nation while Iowa ranks 126th. Northwestern isn’t a great shooting team by any means shooting only 47.2%, but they are very good at not turning the ball over ranking 17th in the nation, as well as forcing turnovers ranking 26th in the nation. Those extra possessions could go a long way in this game. We also have to notice that Northwestern’s last three games have them shooting 56.9% effective FG%. Now the key to this game will be slowing down Iowa star Chris Murray who is 6’8 and can score anywhere, but having guys like 6’9 Robbie Beran, and 7′ center Matthew Nicholson, I kinda like their chances. Northwestern has had some great performances this year on the road beating teams like Indiana, Michigan State and Nebraska. Both Haslametrics and Kenpom have this only a four point game. I think that the Cats keep scratching their way up and this game they know will go a long ways when it comes to seeding in the NCAA tournament.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev talks about the good the bad, and the ugly for last weekend in football. Then, we get into some NFL football recap. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL Superbowl Week! Want to ask us something? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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*CBB(1u): St John’s -10 vs Georgetown–1 PM CT
Say what you want about the Johnnies’ ability to step up in competition, but they have blitzed the bottom barrel teams in the Big East. They beat Butler by 16 and DePaul by 19, and I’m expecting a similar result today.
Georgetown got off the schneid earlier this week with their first Big East win in nearly 2 years. Quite frankly, I couldn’t give a damn. In their 5 road games in Big East play, Georgetown is allowing almost 87 PPG and features maybe the worst defense Power CBB has to offer. St John’s is not a great outside shooting team, but I do like their guard play around the rim and think the world of big-man Joel Soriano. I’m expecting St John’s to improve in the shooting department here down the final stretch, and I couldn’t think of a better opponent to start that against.
One of the little-known facts in CBB is that St John’s has a legit Top 50 defense in the country. They force over 15 turnovers per game and should suffocate a poorly coached Hoyas team in this matchup. Patrick Ewing’s team is notorious for poor 2H’s, so I have no issue playing this over the full game.
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!
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55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
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54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
San Francisco vs Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 45.5
This game has the two best teams in the NFC facing off to make it to the big show! I must say, I have been equally impressed for both teams on both sides of the ball. Lets break it down. Both teams are top 4 in EPA per play both on offense and defense. Looking on the ground, both teams run the ball very well averaging 4.7 yards per rush. On defense the 49ers only allow a league leading 3.4 yards per rush with Fred Warner leading the pack. The Eagles on the other hand may have a weakness allowing 4.7 yards per rush themselves and 23rd in opponent rush EPA. Advantage 49ers. Through the Air, both teams are equally powerful at about 7.7 yards per passing attempt, but on defense, San Francisco gives up 6.4 yards per attempt compared to the Eagles allowing 5.4 advantage Eagles. If you had noticed, Dak Prescott was able to march down the field against the 49ers and that is due to their mediocre pass rush only ranking 18th in pressure rate. The Eagles rank number two in pressure rate and that doesn’t bode well with a rookie quarterback for the 49ers. Both teams are at bottom two in strength of schedule, so no advantage there. Both teams are +1 net yards per play so no advantage there either. The path to the 49ers victory is clearly on the ground, and this is why you are seeing a lower total. The problem that would exist for San Francisco is if they get jumped, it would be very hard for a young quarterback to get back into this game. The Eagles may be bad against the run, but they tend to tighten up in the Red Zone ranking 11th in opponent TD percentage to San Francisco’s 19th. The 49ers have played some poor pass offenses and when they stepped up in class, the Raiders dropped 34 on them while the Chiefs blew them out at home. Both of these teams are pretty equal in total power. I have to give the coaching advantage to Kyle Shanahan, and I have to give the quarterback and home field advantage to the Eagles. The spread is right but the prop market is what I will attack. I think the Eagles continue to fly here and I have them winning 24-21.
Lean Eagles and the Under. San Fran is a great teaser leg if you can partner it with the dog when more info comes out on Mahomes.
Props: Miles Sanders under 51.5 rushing yards -115 – 1.5 stars
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 TD Passes – +110 – .5 stars
Kittle over 46.5 receiving yards – 1 star
Fun prop 1st TD Scorer: Kittle +1200, Watkins +4000, Gainwell +2000 – All .2 stars each
Cincinnati vs Kansas City +1 O/U 48
We must be blessed here because we also have the two best teams in the AFC facing each other this weekend. The elephant in the room is Patrick Mahomes high ankle sprain. I do not know if we will get much info on how it is truly affecting him, but he is going to play, and I have to assume that he is going to have so much tape on in, that it will be almost like wearing a cast. In saying that, the Bengals have won the last three matchups in this game and you have to give the quarterbacking edge to Joe Burrow based on the injury. On the ground, the Chiefs look to have a rushing advantage at 4.7 yards per rush to 3.9 for the Bengals, but much of that was their second leading rusher in QB Patrick Mahomes getting 6.8 yards per attempt. Both teams are probably at push at best in this category. Rushing defense favors the Bengals allowing 4.2 yards per rush to Kansas City at 4.5. From a passing perspective, the Chiefs have an advantage on offense at 7.7 yards per attempt to 6.9, but on defense the Bengals have tightened up allowing only 6.1 passing yards per attempt to the Chiefs at 6.6. This is where the Bengals need to shine and they can with guys like Chase, Higgens, Hurst, and Boyd. The Chiefs have a +1.1 net yards per play. Compare that with the Bengals at .1, you see a large differnence, but over the last 9 weeks of football, the Advanced stats have Cincinnati number for in EPA per play on offense with Kansas City at number one, while on defense, Cincinnati number six and Kansas City number 10. We also must factor in that Cincinnati’s strength of schedule ranks 3rd compared to Kansas City’s ranking 11th in that very disappointing AFC West. I think that the Mahomes mobility injury really hurts this Kansas City team and his team isn’t used to him staying in the Pocket. For these reasons, I like the Bengals. In saying that, I think that the over is in play because a hindered Mahomes is probably better than 75% of the starting NFL quarterbacks out there. The Chiefs and the Bengals are both 5 in yards per point.
Bengals -1 – 2 stars with the over 47 – 2.5 stars
Props: Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards – 1 star
JuJu Smith-Schuster under 48.5 receiving yards – .5 stars
