Are the Buccaneers a little banged up on the offensive line? Yes, Is Todd Bowles a bad football coach? Yes, but if you saw how Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came back on Monday vs the Saints, you might regain a little confidence with this handicap. Now I have Tampa Bay a little bit above average team with upside while the 49ers were the 4th best team in the league with Jimmy Garoppolo, but that changed when he went out for the season. Brock Purdy did a good Job last week, but not good enough to lay more than three points to Tom Brady. The Bucs figured out that their wide receivers are awesome, and when they call three step drop passes and quicker developing plays, the Buccaneers can be very successful. Nick Bosa is banged up for the 49ers and if he plays, he will be less than 100%. If you remember last week, we said that the way to beat the 49ers is attacking that secondary. Well it was working for the Dolphins before Tua decided to choke. Tampa Bay now with a healthier defensive front should go back to their run stuffing ways forcing Purdy to make some big throws. I know that Kyle Shanahan will try and hide his deficiencies, but it could end up blowing up in his face if Tampa can play some bully ball. Grab the points.
Tampa +3.5 – 2 stars
Vikings vs Lions -2.5 O/U 51.5
What do you do when you see the highest total of the week in the NFL? You bet the over of course! Since week 9, the Lions have been a fierce offense ranking 4th in EPA per play and 3rd in offensive success rate. The Vikings on offense have been coasting through the season at 5.4 yards per play and 24 points per game. Minnesota has been very fortunate winning a bunch of coin flip games, but they have the power to do so with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson leading the way on offense. This is also the TJ Hockenson revenge game where they traded him prematurely for picks, and I could see a big performance coming out of him. Both the Vikings and the Lions rank dead last in opponent yards per play giving up 6.3 for the queens and 6.4 for the kittens. I see a shoot out here in Detroit where the field conditions and weather is controlled. Take the over 52.5
Over 51.5- 2 stars
Teaser: Ravens to +8 with the Eagles to -.5 – 2 stars
I’m told some didn’t get my NBA plays earlier– sorry about that. Not sure what happened. Here they are:
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Well I’d be lying if I didn’t say these NBA games are really pissing me off. Last night I want to say we just flat got a few things wrong, maybe that’s true in the case of the Suns’ loss, but from what I’m seeing it’s a lot of mega-variance hitting on the nights I’m betting on a tendency going the other direction. I’m told I can’t get too married to the why/what/how so I won’t– onto another day!
Unfortunately, there’s a LOT I like on the card today, ha. Hold onto your seats!
Heat -11.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
There’s a reason the line came out this high. San Antonio has been getting blown out every game for weeks but they decided to win one the other night. The Heat are overdue for a breakout, all encompassing performance. Especially at home. Miami dominates by 20.
Mavs/Bulls 1Q over 57.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Lately, no matter what the spot is or who they’re against, the Mavs are engaging in very high-level offense early. They also don’t apply the same brand of defense early. The Bulls are in a very good spot and will be ready to run the floor and keep up. Love a high scoring game, but would rather take it earlier. I’d also rather rely on Dallas’ first unit.
Clippers/Wiz under 220.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This has under written all over it. Two defenses primed to take on two less-than-consistent, clunky offenses. Both of these defenses have been shitty recently, too, which only makes this more probable, IMO. Two slow-paced teams looking to flex physically on each other – I have this at 211.
Celtics/Warriors 1Q over 60.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Celtics 1Q -0.5 (-115), to win 2 units
Celtics/Warriors 1H over 120.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Draymond Green over 8.5 pts (-125), to win 1 unit
Marcus Smart over 11.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Lots that I like in this game – let me elaborate. This game means A LOT to the Celtics, who are facing the opponent that kept their dreams in the closet last year after Golden State booted them out of the playoffs. In big time, national games like this, offenses almost always show out early. Both teams will try to put daggers in each other from the jump, which should result in a lot of aggressive drives to the basketball and fast-paced action. Boston and Golden State play at a fast pace and the Warriors’ run even faster at home. Boston’s offense has been historically good and GS is almost always more potent at the Chase Center. I think this game gets physical and slows down later in the contest (look for a live under if it gets too inflated), but give me some early over and early dominance from Boston. Marcus Smart and Draymond Green are tougher and more poised than most NBA players in these situations, so I like both of them to cover their points total in a high scoring game. TBD if the other stars will show up, but I’d lean over for almost all of ’em.
Timberwolves +5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
There’s some buy signs on Minnesota right now. Their pace, offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, and just plain energy on the floor all feels different lately without KAT on the floor. Maybe they just needed one of their big-men out of the lineup to create more space, who knows, but right now it’s resulting in more chemistry and more wins. The Blazers have been struggling at home and I think we all kind of knew that they weren’t one of the NBA elites. Over the last few weeks they’ve really started to regress on both sides of the court and I think this is closer to their norm. Minnesota can win this game – I like them to at least keep it close.
This is a pretty high spread when looking at two kenpom top 14 teams. The question is if it is warranted? I am going to say yet it is. Alabama has run through some rough teams with wins vs Michigan State, North Carolina in overtime and a nasty loss to UCONN, but this is a situation where they are a true road team only for the second time this year and during the first time, they didn’t cover against South Alabama only putting up 65 points. Alabama is a well coached team that plays very fast basketball, but with speed comes with slop as this team turns the ball over 21.5% of possessions ranking 303rd in the nation. Houston on the other hand has a ball hawking defense ranking number 2 in efficiency and number 5 in forcing steals. The fact that Alabama plays fast might get them in a lot of trouble here. Houston is the number 1 team in the nation and they have the opportunity to stamp that tonight. Houston’s best player in Marcus Sasser did injury his eye, but it looked like the injury was more around his eye and he is playing today. Gonna take the Cougs laying the points.
The big day is almost here at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia PA, where Army and Navy for the 123rd time in history. This game is a tradition unlike any other that takes place as a stand alone Saturday game before the bowls. I will have to say there that this game has had it’s back and fourth’s over the years, and the biggest trend to date is that the under has hit an amazing 16 TIME IN A ROW! The very reason for the low total is that time flies during this game being that both teams are triple option based teams, with long drives that run the clock thus preventing a lot of stoppages. I believe last years game only took around 2 hours and 15 minutes to finish. Now I want to warn you about this situation, and the under trend here. Over the last 16 years, the total was usually much higher than the 32.5 that you see here, and nine of those games would have went over that total had the market decide on a number as low as it is this year. There is no algorithmic position that predicts this low of a total. Both teams just looking at points alone average above 22 and give up above 23.
The Handicap on this game is simple. Both teams will try and mix it up some with a few passing plays to try and catch each other off guard but the most important thing is opponent rushing success rate. Navy gives up a ton of passing yards to average teams but they only allow 3.07 yards per rush to Army’s 5.12. Navy ranks 14th in opponent rushing success rate while Army ranks 125th. Navy’s defensive line is much more stout than Army’s and I can trust the Midshipmen to stop the run much more than I can Army. The Black Nights at least rank higher in rushing the ball at 5.58 to 4.05 respectively, but the strength of schedule that Army had ranking 125th in the nation on Sagarin pales in comparison to Navy’s ranking 60th while playing in the American Athletic conference. I Have navy winning this game by 3 points so I like them on the money line at -135 but I also lean to the over. Navy wins 19-16.
Navy -135 – 2 stars (this lines moved since I wrote this don’t take over -150)
If you are a college football fan, a sports bettor, or both, then you know that these college bowl games are based off of motivation, coaching, home field proximity, and player retention more than straight power. I think that it is imperative to know what you are up against if you are trying to bet on these games. In this article, I give you the matchup, the location, the odds, and the ever important speculation on each team’s motivation along with a potential home field advantage that you must factor into your handicaps, and office pools that you will be filling out before the games begin. Keep in mind that my speculation on each team’s motivation is subject to change so please keep checking this article periodically during the month of December.
Friday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl: Miami vs. UAB -10 O/U 44
UAB: Motivation – Medium High – This team shows up for bowl games and now they have a new coach in Trent Dilfer to try and impress.
Miami (OH) – Medium High – This team usually shows up to bowls, but it took a lot to get bowl eligible.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 11:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Thomas Robinson Stadium — Nassau, Bahamas
Cure Bowl: Troy vs. UTSA +1 O/U 54
Troy: Motivation – Medium Low – They won their conference and should still be partying.
UTSA: Motivation – Medium Low – They won their conference again and are probably Christmas shopping.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Exploria Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
Saturday, Dec. 17
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville -2 O/U 45
Cincinnati: Motivation – Medium Low – Coach Fickell being gone puts them in a slight pickle.
Louisville: Motivation – High – Coach Satterfield leaving for Cincinnati should put a fire under their asses.
Home Field: – None
Start Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Fenway Park — Boston, Mass.
Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. N.C. Central +16.5 O/U 56
Jackson State: Motivation – Medium Low – They lost Prime baby!
N.C. Central: Motivation – High – Let’s beat Prime’s team.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU -4 O/U 71
BYU: Motivation – Medium – Not a great bowl for them, but what the hell. QB Jaren Hall might not play due to his injury and potential transfer status.
SMU: Motivation – Medium High – End the season on a high note.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: University Stadium — Albuquerque, N.M.
LA Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State +1.5 O/U 54.5
Fresno State: Motivation – Medium High – They get to beat Power 5.
Washington State: Motivation – Medium – Good matchup for them.
Home Field: Small edge to Fresno being 220 miles away but WASU will travel.
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
LendingTree Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Rice +7 O/U 46.5
Southern Miss: Motivation – High – They wanted to get to a bowl this year.
Rice: Motivation – High – They wanted to get to a bowl this year and were the only 5-7 team to make it. These teams used to be rivals.
Home Field: Southern Miss being only 97 miles away.
Start Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium — Mobile, Ala.
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. Oregon State -10.5 O/U 52
Florida: Motivation – Low – Anthony Richardson won’t play the bowl game.
Oregon State: Motivation – High – Beat an SEC team? 11 against a 6? SURE, and may I double down?
Home Field: Slight edge to Oregon State who might travel some.
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, Nev.
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs. North Texas +10.5 O/U 57
Boise State: Motivation – Medium High – Not a power 5 but still will do nice with a young quarterback.
North Texas: Motivation – High – They will want to beat Boise:
Home Field: Huge for North Texas PLAYING PRETTY MUCH AT HOME.
Start Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Toyota Stadium — Frisco, Texas
Monday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall -10 O/U 40.5
UConn: Motivation – Medium – They finally got to a bowl but it’s fun to party in Myrtle Beach.
Marshall: Motivation – Medium Low – Bad opponent and might go out the night before.
Home Field – None
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Brooks Stadium — Conway, S.C.
Tuesday, Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan +3.5 O/U 54
San Jose State: Motivation – Low – They go to Boise all the time and probably was robbed or at least assulted while they were there.
Eastern Michigan: Medium Low – These kids got totally screwed. Now they might drink to just block out the fact that they are in Boise Idaho. (Kip)
Home Field: None
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, Idaho
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty +4.5 O/U 54
Toledo: Motivation – Medium Low – They won the Mac and now it’s time to party.
Liberty: Motivation – Medium – This team lost their coach but they at least do get a very good one coming in.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, Fla.
Wednesday, Dec. 21
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky +5 O/U 53.5
South Alabama: Motivation – High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.
Western Kentucky: Motivation – Medium – Decent matchup on a disappointing season.
Home Field: South Alabama some at 260 miles way.
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
Thursday, Dec. 22
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor -6.5 O/U 49.5
Air Force: Motivation – High – Get to play a power 5.
Baylor: Motivation – Medium – Good coach in Aranda.
Home Field: Baylor is only 108 miles away!
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, Texas
Friday, Dec. 23
Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest -1 O/U 60.5
Wake Forest: Motivation – Medium – They probably wanted bigger and better things but at least they go on vacation.
Missouri: Motivation – Medium High – This team accomplished a lot this year compared to others.
Home Field: None
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana +6.5 O/U 60.5
Houston: Motivation – Medium – Not the season that they hoped for.
Louisiana: Motivation – Medium High – They step up slightly in class.
Home Field: None – Same distance for both schools around 250 miles away.
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Independence Stadium — Shreveport, La.
Saturday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State -7 O/U 49.5
Middle Tennessee State: Motivation – Low – I think they have fun in Hawaii.
San Diego State: Motivation – Medium High – They go to Hawaii often enough and will look to do business.
Home Field: Slight edge to San Diego State due to proximity
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green -2 O/U 47.5
New Mexico State: Motivation – Medium High – This team hasn’t went bowling in a long time.
Bowling Green: Motivation – Medium – They made a bowl by shopping at wish but all that they got in return was Detroit Michigan.
Home Field: Bowling Green due to being 83 miles away.
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Ford Field — Detroit, Mich.
Tuesday, Dec. 27
First Responder Bowl: Utah State vs. Memphis -7 O/U 62
Utah State: Motivation – Medium – Not a bad place to go to get away.
Memphis: Motivation – Medium – Medium season with a medium bowl game.
Home Field: None
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, Texas
Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina +9.5 O/U 59.5
East Carolina: Motivation – High – They get to beat up the talk of the town.
Coastal Carolina: Motivation – Low – They lost their coach and most likely their quarterback Grayson McCall for this game.
Home Field: None
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, Ala.
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo +3.5 O/U 67
Georgia Southern: Motivation – Medium High – They haven’t played a bowl game in a while.
Buffalo: Motivation – Medium – Hard to gauge this team who blew their chances to get to the MAC title a few weeks back.
Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia Southern being 300 miles away.
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, Ala.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State +3 O/U 43.5
Wisconsin: Motivation – Medium Low – New coaching, lots of transfers and no quarterbacks.
Oklahoma State: Motivation – Medium High – Why not beat the big 10? Not sure who plays QB for either team
Start Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Chase Field — Phoenix, Ariz.
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF PK O/U 62.5
Duke: Motivation – Medium – Making a bowl was impressive for Mike Elko.
UCF: Motivation – Medium Low – Maybe if this was basketball it would be higher.
Home Field: Slight edge to Duke at 300 miles away.
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, Md.
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas +4 O/U 59
Kansas: Motivation – High – SEC and finally made a bowl game after many many years.
Arkansas: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t like the Hogs much here being that they had higher aspirations preseason, but I certainly would not bet the under.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium — Memphis, Tenn.
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina +11 O/U 72
Oregon: Motivation – Medium Low – I feel this team wanted something better.
North Carolina: Motivation – Medium – This team choked their last 4 games but that doesn’t mean that they don’t finally wake up here.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: FOX
Location: Petco Park — San Diego, Calif.
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss -4 O/U 69.5
Texas Tech: Motivation – High – They get an SEC team that plays fast like them.
Ole Miss: Motivation – Medium – Lane Kiffen still there which is nice.
Home Field: None – Texas is huge.
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
Thursday, Dec. 29
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. Syracuse +7.5 O/U 42
Minnesota: Motivation – Medium High – Why not play in the Big Apple?
Syracuse: Motivation – High – Chance to beat a Big 10 team
Home Field: Syracuse for sure being in NY.
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, N.Y.
Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma -7 O/U 65
Florida State: Motivation – Medium – I think they could have done much better this year and they know it.
Oklahoma: Motivation – Medium High – Pending hold outs, I think they rally around Brett Venebles.
Home Field: Florida State but not as much because OU travels well and it’s 250 miles from Tallahassee
Start Time: 5:30 p.m ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas -6 O/U 68
Washington: Motivation – High – They will want to beat a Big 12 Team like Texas.
Texas: Motivation – Medium High – They get a good program in state.
Home Field: Texas for sure only a few hours away from San Antonio.
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas
Friday, Dec. 30
Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson -7 O/U 64
Clemson: Motivation – Medium High – Dabo is a great coach and they have a new life with their young QB in Cade Klubnik.
Tennessee: Motivation – Medium – They still get to play Clemson even after the rough loss to South Carolina and lost Hendon Hooker that took them out of the Playoffs.
Home Field: None
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: N.C. State vs. Maryland -1 O/U 48
Maryland: Motivation – Medium – They should want to give it a go.
North Carolina State: Motivation – Medium Low – Why not give it a go being so close to home but they were not rewarded much having to stay in state. The preseason expectations were so high on the Wolfpack.
Home Field: NC State only 165 miles away.
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, N.C.
Sun Bowl: Pitt vs. UCLA -7 O/U 58
Pitt: Motivation – Medium – Kedon Slovis entered the transfer portal but Nate Yarnell looked pretty good.
UCLA: Motivation – Medium – Last chance to show off to the NFL for DTR.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: CBS
Location: Sun Bowl — El Paso, Texas
Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame -3 O/U 52
South Carolina: Motivation – Medium High – Bad start yet they made a bowl game which is huge.
Notre Dame: Motivation – Medium Low – Their QB Drew Pine is transferring and Notre Dame wanted something bigger in my opinion.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, Fla.
Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming +1 O/U 43
Ohio: Motivation – Medium High – Tucson isn’t much different than Tombstone Arizona but at least it’s warmer.
Wyoming: Motivation – Medium – Not sure what these kids will do against a MAC team here.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: Barstool
Location: Arizona Stadium — Tucson, Ariz.
Saturday, Dec. 31
Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky -2.5 O/U 31.5
Iowa: Motivation – Medium – Fun destination for these kids in Nash-Vegas, but by the way that they play offense, I don’t expect them to close the deal.
Kentucky: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t think Kentuckians like Tennessee. I might be wrong.
Home Field: Kentucky somewhat only going 212 miles away.
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Nissan Stadium — Nashville, Tenn.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State +3.5 O/U 54.5
Kansas State: Motivation – High – Playing Nick Saben and Alabama really says it all.
Alabama: Motivaiton – Medium – But Don’t count out Nick Saben here. Same thing happened in 2019 where they put a whooping on Michigan. (phyliss)
Home Field: Alabama should have more fans here 288 miles away from Tuscaloosa.
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU +8 O/U 59
Michigan: Motivation – High – Playoffs
TCU: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Home Field: Michigan has more fans than TCU so slight advantage Blue.
Start Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Ariz.
Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Georgia vs. Ohio State +6.5 O/U 61
Ohio State: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Georgia: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia being in their own State.
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.
Monday, Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. Mississippi State -1 O/U 46.5
Mississippi State: Motivation – Medium – Leach doesn’t seem to care about bowls.
Illinois: Medium High – Illinois first bowl game in a while. Getting to play SEC is nice, but Illinois blew their chances to win the Big 10 West. Let’s hope Brett doesn’t hit it too hard in Tampa!
Home Field: None
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN2
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue +8 O/U 58
LSU: Motivation – Medium Low – Lost chances to get into playoffs and some kids will sit out.
Purdue: Motivation – Medium High – They get to try and beat an overrated SEC team but rumors around Jeff Brohm going to Louisville are swollen.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
Cotton Bowl Classic: USC vs. Tulane +2 O/U 62
USC: Motivation – Low – They blew their chances at the playoffs and Pac 12 title in 1 day. Kids are leaving as well.
Tulane: Motivation – Medium High – Keep the good feelings going!
Home Field: None supposedly, but I think the crowd goes for Tulane so there’s that.
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
Rose Bowl Game: Utah vs. Penn State +2.5 OU 51.5
Utah: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
Penn State: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
Home Field: None
Start Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl — Pasadena, Calif.
Monday, Jan. 9
College Football Playoff National Championship Game: TBD
Magic under 105 or more (it should be 106.5), to win 1 unit
This isn’t out yet but it will be tomorrow morning
The Magic are 29th in ppg, but they’re a growing defense and they play horrendously slow. That’s a great under team.
The Raptors are a top 10 defensive team and they’re healthy, which means all the length should be there and in Orlando’s face at every turn
In regulation, Orlando only eclipsed 107 points in three different games
One of those games was against Toronto, where they shot nearly 50% from the field. I don’t see that happening in this contest
Knicks/Hornets under 224.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hornets are largely inept at scoring these days
And they play a lot slower than they used to. No LaMelo Ball, no tempo. No Dennis Smith Jr. slows them down, too
The Knicks are emphasizing defense and it’s starting to click. They’ve allowed only 82 and 89 points in their last two games, against much better offenses.
The Knicks are a slow-tempo team again.
The Knicks, on the road, shoot poorly. They’re effective FG % is dead last away from MSG
Cavs 1H -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Cavaliers are the #1 defense in the NBA right now and they’ll ride that confidence into this game
This is a revenge game for Cleveland, who got run off the floor early against Sacramento in their 1st game, which was at the Golden 1 Center
Jarrett Allen, a superior defender, had one of his worst days against Sacramento in game one. He’ll correct that tonight.
At home, winning 8 of their last 11 games and riding that momentum into this, I love Cleveland to come out hot on both sides of the court
Full game Sacramento can come back and -5.5 feels like a lot. I have this game at -5
But I want to play on the Cavaliers, so we’ll take the 1H.
In the first game they were outscored 69-58 in the first half of game 1, and that was a big reason why they lost.
Suns -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
New Orleans isn’t an easy place for teams to play lately, but apparently the Pelicans will still be without Brandon Ingram
I’m not all that impressed by the Pelicans’ lately. Sure, they’ve won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8, but none of those teams were elite
And they struggled against Detroit
And their most recent games against more elite teams (MEM, BOS), they were humbled real quick
I love a great coach like Monte Williams to coach up his team to respond after such an embarrassing loss to Boston
I’d rather bet on the Suns not losing 3 in a row than betting on the Pelicans to win 6 in a row. Which is more likely?
Plus, these teams meet again at New Orleans on Sunday- maybe that’s a spot for the Pels– not this one!
This is the final, full list for this Saturday’s UFC 282 event. LFG!
UFC 282 (13-21, +4.38 units in 2022):
Ankalaev + Pimblett ML Parlay (1.5 units to win 1.41 units)
Ankalov is made of the same insane makeup that Khabib and his proteges are made of and although I love Jan Blachowicz and his power is real, Ankalov’s wrestling ability and toughness will be too much for the Polish power puncher. Pimblett is growing in popularity for good reasons. The dude is insanely gifted and can win in so many different ways. He’s facing a better fighter in this event but it’ll take a true elite for Paddy the Baddy to experience his first loss, in my opinion.
Bryce Mitchell (+125), to win 1.25 units
Topuria/Mitchell under 2.5 rounds (+105), to win 1.05 units
I’ve been watching this dude on social media and he’s just a tough-ass country boy who’s trained differently, in the boondocks, since he was a kid. His opponent hasn’t lost a professional bout but he’s a little overconfident for my liking. Dude hasn’t faced an imposing fighter and I love that Mitchell will have a reach, height, and TD advantage. He also has an insane 75% significant strike percentage. I’m going country-boy-USA! PS – Mitchell is FIRED UP about this fight– I think he’ll go for the kill or be killed early.
Rozenstruik by TKO (-120), to win 1 unit
This one won’t last long and this is the most probable result.
Du Plessis wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+165), to win 1.65 units
Darren Till is beyond his prime, losing four out of his last five fights. And who knows if he even wants to be there– he’s vocalized how hard it’s been not being able to see his newborn baby. Du Plessis is younger, hungrier, and he’s won his last 5 bouts. He ended 4/5 of those wins early.
Magic under 105 or more (it should be 106.5), to win 1 unit
This isn’t out yet but it will be tomorrow morning
The Magic are 29th in ppg, but they’re a growing defense and they play horrendously slow. That’s a great under team.
The Raptors are a top 10 defensive team and they’re healthy, which means all the length should be there and in Orlando’s face at every turn
In regulation, Orlando only eclipsed 107 points in three different games
One of those games was against Toronto, where they shot nearly 50% from the field. I don’t see that happening in this contest
Knicks/Hornets under 224.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hornets are largely inept at scoring these days
And they play a lot slower than they used to. No LaMelo Ball, no tempo. No Dennis Smith Jr. slows them down, too
The Knicks are emphasizing defense and it’s starting to click. They’ve allowed only 82 and 89 points in their last two games, against much better offenses.
The Knicks are a slow-tempo team again.
The Knicks, on the road, shoot poorly. They’re effective FG % is dead last away from MSG
Suns -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
New Orleans isn’t an easy place for teams to play lately, but apparently the Pelicans will still be without Brandon Ingram
I’m not all that impressed by the Pelicans’ lately. Sure, they’ve won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8, but none of those teams were elite
And they struggled against Detroit
And their most recent games against more elite teams (MEM, BOS), they were humbled real quick
I love a great coach like Monte Williams to coach up his team to respond after such an embarrassing loss to Boston
I’d rather bet on the Suns not losing 3 in a row than betting on the Pelicans to win 6 in a row. Which is more likely?
Plus, these teams meet again at New Orleans on Sunday- maybe that’s a spot for the Pels– not this one!
Coming off a 2-1 night, I’m rolling with one play for tonight on what is a pretty short slate. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Iowa -4 vs Iowa State–6 PM CT
Just two nights ago, we saw Iowa look pretty poor in a double-digit loss to Duke at MSG. No rest for the weary, however, as the Hawkeyes return back home to take on their in-state rival. The first thing that jumps out to me is that this is a MAJOR revenge spot for the Hawkeyes after they were obliterated in Ames last year by a clearly inferior opponent.
Like most Big12 teams, Iowa State defends at a very high level; with that said, this is an offense I want to be fading, especially in hostile road environments. The Cyclones shoot just 44% from the field, less than 70% from the free throw line, and less than 32% from 3. Given the snails pace they like to play at, this is a team that’s going to try to engage in a lot of ugly affairs. Iowa, on the other hand, is a “run-and-gun team” that does a lot of little things right. They hold a stark FT% advantage in this game and lead the nation with a dazzling 1.9 Assist/Turnover ratio.
I can trust the Hawkeyes in their home gym given they’ve won by at least 16 in every home game this season. Meanwhile, this is Iowa State’s first true road game of the season. I would’ve made this number at least 6, so I see quite a bit of value in trusting the short home favorite in this rivalry game.
Well we went 3-3 Wednesday, annoying, but at least it wasn’t a complete ass-kicking like we’ve seen the last two days. And we had a slight + unit night. Don’t like much from this shitty 3 game slate tonight, but I have one play. Waiting on the Clippers’ injury report and maybe we’ll have another.
Nuggets/Blazers over 228.5 (-108), to win 1.5 units
This number’s been ticking up for good reason.
Both teams have regressed on defense, especially Portland. Denver’s never been good.
Denver plays with more pace on the road to compensate.
Denver has lost 3 in a row and they’ve been stifled at various moments by good defenses in their last 3 games. I think they get-right tonight.
Both teams have matchup advantages on offense– Denver’s size, Portland’s guards.
I set this number at 234.
Their first game ended in a 245 point total, and I don’t think that was an aberration.
