This should be a fun game to watch as Big East conference play kicks off. Boh temas play pretty fast pace basketball with Seton Hall ranking 79th in average possession length to Marquette ranking 15th! So why the low total then? Well, Marquette has a decent defense ranking 62nd in efficiency while Seton Hall ranks 20th on defense. The big thing for me is that when Seton Hall stepped up in class, they have allowed 77 points to Oklahoma, 72 to Xavier, 91 to Kansas, and 71 to providence. The only games they performed ok in were neutral sites allowing 68 to Memphis and shutting Rutgers down away when the Scarlet Knights were injured. I think that Seton Halls defense is fake news, and this game plays fast enough to hit the over, but I do not trust Seton Hall’s scoring as much as the Golden Eagles. Take the team total here.
Let’s end this CFB season in the motherfuckin black!
CFB Bowl Game Picks (50-45-7, -1.25 units):
Oklahoma St/Wisconsin under 45 (-110), to win 1 unit
Without Spencer Sanders, the OK State offense takes a huge hit. Against an offense that’s not prolific in any sense, I expect the Cowboys to play ball control, run the ball, and attempt to play keep-away from the Badgers. And that’s all Wisconsin does is play conservative, keep-away football. Checks out as a slower paced, low-scoring affair.
Maryland ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
In games where competition is relatively even, the Terps have played really well this year. NC State is in a state of flux right now, while this game probably means more to a MD team that has way more explosive potential on offense, particularly through their passing game. If the Wolfpack show up lifeless at all, and I think they might, Maryland can take advantage and then it’ll be tough for NC State to catch up. Go Terps!
UCLA -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I don’t necessarily trust my numbers all the time, especially not in college football, but the UCLA Bruins are considerably more talented than Pitt, in my opinion. This should be a 7-8 point spread, especially since it looks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing. Pitt could take advantage of UCLA’s lackluster pass defense, but then again can they? Probably not, since there’s nothing exceptional about their own passing attack. With several key defensive players missing, I love the Bruins to take home this prize with ease.
Notre Dame -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen the Irish grow and grow into a formidable outfit this season, on both sides of the ball, while the ol’ Gamecocks are sort of this pedestrian, middle of the road SEC team who can take advantage of teams in a letdown spot. This is no such spot for the Irish. I think this game and this season means a lot to Marcus Freeman and the growth of their team, while SC probably isn’t as excited or motivated, especially they sort of already won their championship by beating two top teams in the SEC to finish their season. The Irish cover.
Alabama -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bryce Young and his supporting cast are suiting up for one final time, for the pride of their program, and I think that’s “all she wrote” for this contest. Kansas State is talented on both sides of the ball but this is shaping up to be a Bama-statement-game and I’d rather not be on the other side of that just to try and feel sharp. Not overthinking it– Bama wins easy.
Michigan -7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Wolverines might be the best team in the country and I don’t expect their elevated level of play to come to a halt in the final two games of their season. Now that Michigan’s offense has explosive potential, the talent disparity and opportunities for Michigan to pull ahead should be too much for a Cinderella team like TCU to overcome.
Georgia -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I said long before the Ohio State-Michigan game that I’m unimpressed by the Buckeyes and that remains true. Georgia has been able to assert themselves in the most impressive way all season when they’re in a big game and this is the definition of that, since Ohio State-Georgia is what many had to be the final game of the CFB season. Ohio State’s all-world speed and talent still isn’t consistent enough and I’m not a CJ Stroud believer. I am a believer in Stetson Bennett, who’s been with the Bulldogs since 2019, and a defense that proved it’s as close to an NFL unit as any unit in CFB this season Ohio State disappoints, again, and Georgia remains undefeated.
Purdue +15 (-110), to win 1 unit
Purdue had a great finish to their season before a predictable loss to Michigan at the end, but this is a team that can hang in games and hurt you with a dynamic passing attack. Brian Kelly is a great shit-the-bed coach, I’ve seen it plenty before in his stint with the Irish, and 15 points is way too many in a game that might mean a lot more to the Boilermakers.
USC -2 (-110), to win 2 units
All I needed to see was that Caleb Williams expects to play, and the value is with USC. I’m sure this game with be closer than we expect, but USC’s potent passing attack and while the Green Wave has its own degree of potency on offense, I don’t think they’ll have the talent to score at will like the Trojans should be able to in this matchup. Tulane’s sack-rate is what really concerns me (100th in the country), which will give Williams plenty of time to slice and dice their sub-optimal secondary. USC or nothing for me.
Sorry all – busy busy with the holidays, had to bring back my son this morning, you know how it is. Things will feel more normal starting tomorrow. Shorter write ups today so I can just get these out.
Like a few plays today:
Raptors TT over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Clippers are on a back to back and Kawhi will be back tonight– which is just as much a good thing for their offense as it is for their defense. Toronto seems to have found their groove and they’ve lost a few games in a row at home. This is a great spot, off 4 days rest, for them to take advantage and attack a tired Clippers’ defense. Toronto stays at home all week– great spot for them to show off a renewed attack with a much, MUCH healthier roster.
Grizzlies -8 (-110), to win 2 units
All of the most important perimeter scorers for Phoenix are out tonight (Booker, Payne, Shamet, Johnson) and this game sets up fantastically well for the Grizzlies, at home, after a tough defeat against the Warriors on Christmas. This is a nice revenge spot after that bad loss, and they’re as healthy as they’ve been all season. Go Grizz!
Knicks/Mavs under 219 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Knicks and Mavs are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA right now over their last 5 games and Dallas, without some key offensive contributors, is winning games by limiting second-chance opportunities for other offenses and playing methodical, technically sound basketball. Brunson also has a quad injury, which is the single biggest threat to a Knicks’ high scoring night. If he’s out or even if he’s in because he won’t be 100%, we love that for more defense, less pace and less points. Going under.
Might be best to focus on dome teams this late in the year.
Key Injuries:
TE Hunter Henry is day to day.
TE Jonnu Smith with a concussion might miss next week.
QB Mike White is cleared for contact this week.
WR Christian Watson has a hip injury.
TE Greg Dulcich was ruled out with a hammy.
QB Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions with a shoulder is questionable.
Waiver Wire:
TE Eric Saubert for the Dulcich injury could be a streamer.
WR Romeo Doubs for the Watson injury is big.
WR Randall Cobb might play a big part this week vs the Vikings.
TE Tyler Higbee was massive last week and only owned in 65% of leagues.
WR Kendrick Bourne had 9 targets, a TD and 29 rushing yards.
TE Shane Zylstra from Detroit had 3 touchdowns.
WR Isaiah Hodgins had 11 targets and a TD for the Giants.
WR Greg Dortch had 11 targets and 3 rushes for the Cardinals.
QB Teddy Bridgewater for the Tua injury.
Non Starters trending up for Week 17
RB JK Dobbins vs the Steelers could be big this week.
RB Jamycal Hasty for Jacksonville is huge vs the Texans. Jacksonville could rest their guys potentially. They could win this game, lose vs the Titans and still not make wild card.
RB Cam Akers vs the Chargers could be big this week.
RB David Montgomery vs the Lions is big.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions is good.
QB Jared Goff vs the Bears D is great.
TE Shane Zylstra vs the Bears is solid.
RB Jamaal Williams vs the Bears is huge.
QB Mike White vs the Seahawks D.
WR Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears is gold.
WR Romeo Doubs vs the Vikings.
WR KJ Osborn vs the Packers is good.
QB Baker Mayfield vs the Chargers is huge.
Busts:
QB Kirk Cousins vs the Packers is dangerous here.
QB Geno Smith vs the Jets might be rough.
RB Derek Henry vs the Cowboys could bust.
RB Miles Sanders vs the Saints isn’t looking great.
RB Josh Jacobs vs San Francisco isn’t looking good.
RB Kareem Hunt vs Washington isn’t looking good.
RB Nick Chubb vs Washington is also bad.
Nasty Sleeper: Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears D! His Brother plays for the Bears.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev get’s into a schedule change coming for College basketball 2023! Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Next, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 17! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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I’m off to a 3-2, +1.35u start in Bowl Season! I’m rolling with 4 plays up until December 29th and will be back in a few days with the rest of my bowl plays through January 2nd.
*CFB(1u): Coastal Carolina/East Carolina OVER 64–12/27 5:45 PM CT
This matchup features two below average secondaries, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage.
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall will play in this game before finding a new home at the Power 5 level. Quite frankly, I think the world of McCall. He features a 12:1 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for over 9 Y/A here in 2022. Coastal Carolina is traditionally a spread option offense, but with HC Jamie Chadwell off to Liberty, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Chants lean more towards the pass in their season finale. That would be the smart move in this matchup given ECU’s clear strength defensively is going up against the run while they have allowed over 8 Y/A through the air on 9 separate occasions this year.
East Carolina’s offense will succeed in this game because they are centered around star RB Keaton Mitchell. The Sophomore ran for over 1300 yards this year at nearly 7.5 YPC and shined even in his more difficult matchups. The Chants have been mostly good against the run by Sun Belt standards, but they’ve also been inconsistent enough to where I have little faith they will halt the Pirates on the ground. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is far from a world beater(7.9 Y/A), but he does boast a 23:5 TD/INT ratio and is certainly capable of taking advantage of this weak Chants secondary.
I don’t expect either QB to be under much duress, and I expect each to connect on explosive plays rather easily in this matchup. This game gets played in the upper 60’s at least.
*CFB(1u): Kansas/Arkansas OVER 69–12/28 4:30 PM CT
I typically wouldn’t be willing to play an Over at this number when one team’s objective(Kansas) will be to slow this game to a standstill. However, the defensive issues on each side are that extreme, and each offense is well equipped to take advantage.
Kansas has a very repeatable path to success offensively. This OL has allowed just 8 sacks all season and have paved the way for RB Devin Neal to run for over 6 YPC this season. QB’s Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean were both throwing for over 9 Y/A late in the season before Daniels struggled upon his return from injury; with a full month to prepare, I expect Daniels to look quite sharp against this Razorbacks defense. Arkansas had its top two LB’s opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and their Back 7 struggled tremendously all season. They allowed over 500 yards on the ground to Ole Miss late in the year and really just have a lack of quality talent in their secondary. Kansas might run slow, but this is still an offense that put up 35 or more on 5 seperate Power 5 opponents this year; there’s a reason the Jayhawks rank 9th in yards/play.
With KJ Jefferson healthy, I LOVE this Razorbacks offense. RB Rocket Sanders ran for over 1400 yards this year at 6.5 YPC, and Jefferson is a true dual-threat QB(8.7 Y/A through the air, over 500 yards on the ground). The Razorbacks might be thin at WR at the moment, but I don’t expect it to matter going up against a truly terrible Kansas defense. The Jayhawks allowed 47 PPG over their last 3 games and, like Arkansas, feature a Back 7 that is vulnerable against the run and pass. Unlike Kansas, Arkansas will run with a good amount of pace in this matchup.
I struggle to see a path to stops for either one of these defenses, and each of these offenses are equipped to take advantage. Over is the play.
*CFB(1u): Oregon TT OVER 44 vs North Carolina–12/28 7 PM CT
Oregon’s offense vs North Carolina’s defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch we’ll see this bowl season.
Oregon will win at the line of scrimmage at an elite rate in this matchup; the Ducks have allowed just 4 sacks all season, while UNC’s biggest struggle defensively has been their inability to get pressure on the QB. Along with that, UNC’s secondary is utterly atrocious. Over their last 3 games, UNC has been beaten by Georgia Tech’s 3rd string QB, NC State’s 4th string QB, and Clemson’s freshman QB with zero experience. Bo Nix is a true dual threat(8.9 Y/A as a passer, 6 YPC as a runner) that will absolutely feast in this matchup. Give UNC credit for improving against the run over the course of the season, but with 3 separate 6 YPC guys to defend(including Nix), I have a hard time seeing the Ducks get held down on the ground. Pace will be on our side here as both teams like to use tempo to their advantage.
I would lean heavily towards Oregon -14.5 as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I feel best about and not worry about a potential one-man effort from UNC QB Drake Maye. The Ducks have been one of the most consistent and explosive offenses in the country all year; I see no reason why that stops against this pungent UNC defense.
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -10 vs Syracuse–12/29 1 PM CT
I’ve loved backing this Minnesota team all year, particularly when they’re expected to win by margin against a clearly inferior opponent. We all know the Gophers have a Top 10 defense in the country that is particularly staunch against the run, but this offense is significantly undervalued as well.
Veteran QB Tanner Morgan has flirted with returning from injury to play this game, but I’m comfortable laying 10 with the Gophers if Athan Kaliakmanis is needed again. Both QB’s are at or over 8.5 Y/A on the season, and the Gophers are able to run the ball against anybody with their physical front and bellcow RB Mo Ibrahim. Syracuse is without their Top 2 cover corners for this game, taking away from what was previously the strength of this defense. Their Front 7 has not stepped up well against physical fronts and effective run games like Minnesota will feature(think Notre Dame and Florida State).
Syracuse will be without arguably their most talented player in RB Sean Tucker. Tucker didn’t have the year we expected due to having to run behind a pretty weak OL; with him not available, I think Minnesota will be rather dominant going up against the run. Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was a huge surprise this season(8.7 Y/A), but I do think his overall numbers are misleading. He padded his stats with great games against UCONN, Wagner, Boston College, and Wake Forest, but he also proved to be ineffective against Purdue, Notre Dame, and Florida State. Minnesota’s secondary is good but not great, but with the other stark advantages they hold on this side of the ball, I think it’ll be more than enough.
Don’t have ANY time this morning so please forgive the brevity of this message. Here are two plays I like today:
Nets/Cavs over 221 (-110), to win 2 units
The Nets have been unstoppable offensively as of late, and the Cavs will look to avenge themselves after a tough loss against a lengthy Raptors team where they only scored just over 100 points. Love the over.
Pacers/Pels over 234.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
When the Pels face high octane, small lineups that are defensively challenged, that usually results in a TON of points. No Herb Jones helps limit the Pelicans’ defense. Zion’s absence also opens up the lane for Indiana’s aggressive point guards. I have this at 242.
What gives with these Bears? They get massively classed and out-gained, and somehow cover last week vs a one loss Eagles team. The Bills on the other hand need themselves a slump buster. A team to pick on, and no better candidate right now than the Chicago Bears. People keep forgetting how this Bills team is very capable of getting margin like they did against The LA Rams, Green Bay and New England. Now the team in football plays the second worst team in the NFL and is less than a double digit favorite. Buffalo has a 1.1 net yards per play advantage over the Bears and that is counting when the Bears were actually healthy. As of last week, Chicago finally lost their best player on defense in Jack Sanborn. This won’t bode well vs the Bills. The Bears are a top four team in sacks allowed while the Bills are top ten in pressure rate. Buffalo is number three in offensive EPA and number two in opponent yards per point. Chicago is number 17th in offensive EPA and 30th in opponent yards per point. The Bills are fighting with the Chiefs for the number one seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Bears are fighting for a good draft.
Bills -8 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs New England -3.5 O/U 41.5
It’s gonna be cold and windy in New England like most of the country, so points will come as a premium, Anyone with a brain knows that the Raiders were gifted that win last week vs the Pats. The important thing here is that the Patriots cannot afford to drop a game, while the Bengals are sitting pretty right now in 1st place in the AFC North. Believe it or not, The Patriots have a .2 net yards per play advantage over the tigers. The Patriots have a very good defense ranking number two in EPA while the Bengals rank about 8th. My number actually has this a -2 point favorite for the Bengals and they were saved last week due to pure Buccaneer incompetence allowing them back in that game with four late turnovers. New England was embarrassed last week and this is the get up spot of all get up spots in football. Lastly, Mac Jones is compared to Joe Burrow both coming just one year apart from rival schools in the SEC. I think Jones needs to prove something today. I would rather back the dog fighting for his life over the one fighting for a better meal.
Patriots +3.5 -120 – 2 stars
Teaser: 49ers to -.5 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State -6.5 O/U 48.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii
Middle Tennessee State: Motivation – Low – I think they have fun in Hawaii.
San Diego State: Motivation – Medium High – They go to Hawaii often enough and will look to do business.
Home Field: Slight edge to San Diego State due to proximity
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee – 3-6 ATS in bowl games.
Brady Hoke, San Diego State – 2-3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Neither of these coaches have been great in bowl games.
SDSU has a SOS advantage at 91st to 126th.
SDSU has a .4 net yards per play advantage over the Blue Raiders.
I would look at the under this game if it wasn’t for MTSU being number 13 in Tempo. Maybe a TT under is a good look.
San Diego State has the best unit on the field in the defense. My power number is -6.5 but I lean them because they should take care of business.
Lean SDSU
Lean MTSU team total under 21.5
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green -3.5 O/U 47.5
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Ford Field — Detroit, Mich.
New Mexico State: Motivation – Medium High – This team hasn’t went bowling in a long time.
Bowling Green: Motivation – Medium High – They made a bowl by shopping at wish but all that they got in return was Detroit Michigan.
Home Field: Bowling Green due to being 83 miles away.
Jerry Kill, New Mexico State – 1-5
Diego Pavia, QB (Transfer portal) for New Mexico state.
Bowling green has the harder SOS at 86th to 139th.
NMSU has a 1.5 yard per play advantage over Bowling green, but they haven’t beaten anyone with a pulse minus maybe Liberty.
Jerry Kill will kill your ticket if you back him in a bowl game.
Diego Pavia is the better quarterback for New Mexico State so that is another check mark against the Aggies being the he is leaving.
I Have Bowling green -6.5 points here, but I feel more comfortable betting the ML. I also think that they will be more motivated to get a bowl win close to home.
Bowling Green ML -150 – 2 stars
Tuesday, Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo +3.5 O/U 67
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, Ala.
Georgia Southern: Motivation – Medium High – They haven’t played a bowl game in a while.
Buffalo: Motivation – Medium – Hard to gauge this team who blew their chances to get to the MAC title a few weeks back.
Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia Southern being 300 miles away.
Clay Helton, Georgia Southern – 1-4
Both teams will be without a few guys but nothing that major.
SOS isn’t too far off. 83rd for Georgia Southern to 100 for Buffalo.
GS has a .63 net yard per play advantage over the Bulls.
The big matchup advantage for the Eagles is their passing offense ranking 21st in the nation to Buffalo’s passing defense at 95th, but I am worried that Southern can’t get their defense off of the field giving up 5.77 yards per rush ranking 127th in the nation.
My power ratings have buffalo a 2 point dog so I will put a small play on them to cover and especially being that Clay Helton has had such bad bowl performances.
Buffalo +3.5 – 1.5 stars
First Responder Bowl: Utah State vs. Memphis -7 O/U 61.5
Start Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, Texas
Utah State: Motivation – Medium – Not a bad place to go to get away.
Memphis: Motivation – Medium – Medium season with a medium bowl game.
Home Field: None
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis – 1-1 ATS in bowl games.
Blake Anderson, Utah State – 3-4 ATS in bowl games.
Utah State
RB Robert Briggs (Injury)
CB Ajani Carter (Injury)
CB Michael Anyanwu (Injury)
Utah State will be without backup running back and some starting corners..
SOS favors Memphis here slightly at 74th to 87th for Utah State.
Memphis has a 1.37 net yards per play advantage.
Memphis has the best unit on the field on offense and should be able to run all over Utah State who averages 4.92 yards per rush on defense.
I have Memphis -9 so strong lean Memphis.
Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina +8 O/U 63
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, Ala.
East Carolina: Motivation – High – They get to beat up the talk of the town.
Coastal Carolina: Motivation – Low – They lost their coach and most likely their quarterback Grayson McCall for this game.
Home Field: None
Coastal Carolina
C Willie Lampkin (Transfer portal)
DE Josaiah Stewart (Transfer portal)
CB Manny Stokes (Transfer portal)
CB Zxaequan Reeves (Transfer portal)
S Dre Pinckney (Injury)
East Carolina
TE Ryan Jones (Opt-out)
C Avery Jones (Transfer portal)
EDGE Elijah Robinson (Transfer portal)
S Shawn Dourseau (Transfer portal)
Both teams are without their starting Center and good pass rushers
Very weird how Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game. I advise strongly against it.
Either way, East Carolina has a better SOS at 72nd to 114th.
East Carolina has a +.76 net yard per play advantage over Coastal.
Coastal will be giving up large amounts of points this game, but what the spread could comedown to is the back door for Coastal. East Carolina only ranks 97th in defensive success rate.
MY Power ratings have East Carolina by -7.5 points, but I really am not too keen on Coastal here with all of the uncertainty and I also think that the coaching loss is much greater for Coastal. Eastern Michigan should be able to run all over this team regardless.
I have East Carolina -10.5 in this situation.
East Carolina -7.5 – 2 stars
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State +3 O/U 43
Start Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Chase Field — Phoenix, Ariz.
Wisconsin: Motivation – Medium Low – New coaching, lots of transfers and no quarterbacks.
Oklahoma State: Motivation – Medium High – Why not beat the big 10? Not sure who plays QB for either team
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State – 11-5
Oklahoma State
QB Spencer Sanders (Transfer portal)
RB Dominic Richardson (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Bray (Injury)
WR Bryson Green (Injury)
DT Brendon Evers (Opt-out)
DE Trace Ford (Transfer portal)
DE Tyler Lacy (Opt-out)
LB Mason Cobb (Transfer portal)
S Thomas Harper (Transfer portal)
Wisconsin
QB Graham Mertz (Transfer portal)
QB Deacon Hill (Transfer portal)
RB Isaac Guerendo (Transfer portal)
WR Stephan Bracey (Transfer portal)
WR Markus Allen (Unknown status)
TE Jaylan Franklin (Transfer portal)
TE Clay Cundiff (Injury)
TE Cam Large (Injury)
OL Logan Brown (Transfer portal)
OG Michael Furtney (Transfer portal)
OG/TE Tyler Beach (Opt-out)
OC Joe Tippman (Opt-out)
NT Keeanu Benton (Opt-out)
LB Tristan Monday (Transfer portal)
LB Nick Herbig (Opt-out)
CB Semar Melvin (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Shaw (Opt-out)
CB Justin Clark (Opt-out)
S Titus Toler (Transfer portal)
Wisconsin has a 1.43 net yard per play advantage, but I really don’t want to play this high variance game.
The Badgers will have Chase Wolf or Myles Burkett start this game. How many times can this team hand it off to Braylon Allen?
This total probably has gotten too low. Lean over.
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF +3 O/U 62.5
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, Md.
Duke: Motivation – Medium – Making a bowl was impressive for Mike Elko.
UCF: Motivation – Medium Low – Maybe if this was basketball it would be higher.
Home Field: Slight edge to Duke at 300 miles away.
Gus Malzahn, UCF – 4-4
UCF
QB Mikey Keene (Transfer portal)
QB John Rhys Plumlee (Injury)
WR Ryan O’Keefe (Transfer portal)
SOS about equal.
YPP about equal at .6 ish.
If Plumblee isn’t playing, then Duke and the under! It will be a 3rd stringer. Wait to see how he is. If he is playing, bet UCF. He is worth 6 points to the line.
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas +3 O/U 69
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium — Memphis, Tenn.
Kansas: Motivation – High – SEC and finally made a bowl game after many many years.
Arkansas: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t like the Hogs much here being that they had higher aspirations preseason, but I certainly would not bet the under.
Home Field: None
Lance Leipold, Kansas – 4-1
Sam Pittman, Arkansas – 1-0
Arkansas
QB Malik Hornsby (Transfer portal)
WR Jadon Haselwood (Opt-out)
WR Ketron Jackson (Transfer portal)
C Ricky Stromberg (Opt-out)
LB Drew Sanders (Opt-out)
LB Bumper Pool (Opt-out)
S Myles Slusher (Transfer portal)
DB Chase Lowery (Transfer portal)
Arkansas has more transfers out than Kansas.
Kansas has a 1.08 net yard per play advantage.
Kansas also had a hard SOS just like Arkansas.
I like Kansas here and the over.
Kansas +3 – 2 stars
Over 69 – 2 stars
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina +14 O/U 73.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: FOX
Location: Petco Park — San Diego, Calif.
Oregon: Motivation – Medium – I feel this team wanted something better, but they still might put up a big effort.
North Carolina: Motivation – Medium – This team choked their last 4 games but that doesn’t mean that they don’t finally wake up here.
Home Field: None
Mack Brown, North Carolina – 1-2 * Only counting North Carolina tenure
Oregon
CB Christian Gonzalez (Opt-out)
North Carolina
RB Devon Lawrence (Transfer portal)
RB British Brooks (Injury)
WR Josh Downs (Opt-out)
DT Jahlil Taylor (Transfer portal)
DT Keeshawn Silver (Transfer portal)
EDGE Chris Collins (Transfer portal)
LB Noah Taylor (Injury)
CB Tony Grimes (Transfer portal)
CB Storm Duck (Transfer portal)
CB Dontae Balfour (Transfer portal)
S Cam’Ron Kelly (Transfer portal)
Looks like both QBs will play this game, but the opt out of Josh Downs and many others really ravaged this UNC offense.
Oregon has a .77 net yards per play advantage on a tougher SOS of 25th to 66th.
This number is starting to get a bit out of hand in my opinion being that my number is -10.5, but I will say that it’s hard to bet on UNC right now after the way that they finished the season.
Lean UNC +14.5
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 69.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
Texas Tech: Motivation – High – They get an SEC team that plays fast like them.
Ole Miss: Motivation – Medium – Lane Kiffen still there which is nice.
Home Field: None – Texas is huge.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss – 2-3
CB Miles Battle (Transfer portal) for Ole Miss
Ole miss has been a fraudulent team this year and it showed when they stepped up in competition. I see a good effort from the Red Raiders who has a solid pass defense ranking 24th in success rate.
My power numbers have Ole miss by just 1 point.
Texas Tech +3.5 – 2 stars
Thursday, Dec. 29
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. Syracuse +10 O/U 42
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, N.Y.
Minnesota: Motivation – Medium High – Why not play in the Big Apple?
Syracuse: Motivation – High – Chance to beat a Big 10 team
Home Field: Syracuse for sure being in NY.
Dino Babers, Syracuse – 2-0
PJ Fleck, Minnesota – 3-0
Syracuse
RB Sean Tucker (Opt-out)
DT Terry Lockett (Injury)
EDGE Stefon Thompson (Injury)
CB Garrett Williams (Injury)
CB Darian Chestnut (Transfer portal)
Minnesota
QB Tanner Morgan (Injury)
WR Chris Autman-Bell (Injury)
LB Braelen Oliver (Transfer portal)
S Michael Dixon (Transfer portal)
Great coaching records here.
Both teams hit by some injuries and opt outs.
Tanner Morgan QB is quetionable for Minnesota. If Morgan can’t go, QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis will start in his 4th game.
Syracuse has the better SOS at 47th to 67th
Both teams about equal in YPP at +1 ish.
Minnesota has a huge matchup advantage rushing the ball at 18th in success rate to Syracuse’s ranking 118th in opponent rushing success rate.
My power numbers have the Gophers winning this game by only 7 points right now, but with the rushing advantage and opt outs on Syracuse’s defense, i understand the line move to 10.
There should be a sizable home field advantage for Cuse here in NY. If Morgan can’t play at all here, bet Syracuse.
Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma -+9 O/U 65
Start Time: 5:30 p.m ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
Florida State: Motivation – Medium – I think they could have done much better this year and they know it.
Oklahoma: Motivation – Medium High – Pending hold outs, I think they rally around Brett Venebles.
Home Field: Florida State but not as much because OU travels well and it’s 250 miles from Tallahassee
Mike Norvell, Florida State – 0-4
Florida State finally got it together mid-season and has been on a tear lately.
Oklahoma
QB Nick Evers (Transfer portal)
RB Eric Gray (Opt-out)
WR Theo Wease (Transfer portal)
OT Wanya Morris (Opt-out)
OT Anton Harrison (Opt-out)
DL Jalen Redmond (Opt-out)
LB Joseph Wete (Transfer portal)
OT Harrison and OT Morris were the team’s starting offensive tackles, RB Gray was its bellcow running back and WR Wease had 19 catches so that hurts.
Florida State
WR Winston Wright Jr. (Injury)
WR Darion Williamson (Injury)
DE Shambre Jackson (Transfer portal)
DE Darrell Jackson (Transfer portal)
DB Sam McCall (Transfer portal)
FSU QB Jordan Travis announced he will be returning next season which is a big boost for the Semis.
YPP is about equal yet the what have you done for me lately question really leans Florida State.
Mike Novell’s bowl record is horrible tho and even tho I bet Oklahoma, I kind of regret it.
Lean Florida State -8.5
Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas -4 O/U 67.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas
Washington: Motivation – High – They will want to beat a Big 12 Team like Texas.
Texas: Motivation – Medium High – They get a good program in state.
Home Field: Texas for sure only a few hours away from San Antonio.
Texas
QB Hudson Card (Transfer portal)
RB Bijan Robinson (Opt-out)
RB Roschon Johnson (Opt-out)
WR Troy Omeire (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Alexis (Injury)
LB Prince Dorbah (Transfer portal)
LB DeMarvion Overshown (Opt-out)
Texas has a much harder SOS here at 3rd to 57th for Washington.
YPP is practically the same at about 1.5 net yards per play for both teams.
The Longhorns lost Bijan Robinson and a few others to the NFL, but Washington’s secondary is terrible ranking 75th in opponent passing play success rate so Quinn Ewers, should be able to move this ball some.
Texas on the other hand lost their best linebacker while their defense hasn’t been great against the pass ranking 48th in opponent passing success rate.
I am concerned some for more opt outs in this bowl game.
My power ratings has Texas -6 here, but the drop outs are really hurting Texas here and more might be coming. I think taking 4 with washington is a good move.
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 7-5 in the high participant Double-Ups. The Chargers decided to run the ball against an awful pass defense last week which led to our loss.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Saturday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Geno Smith, QB: $5,800. Geno had his string of 5 straight 20+FPPG streak snapped last week against the elite 49ers defense. Your reward for that is a lowered salary for his match-up against the Chiefs who have allowed a league leading 30 Passing Touchdowns to opposing signal callers this year.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. The Texans are allowing an NFL worst 167.5 rushing yards per game. The weather will be 15 degrees in Nashville on Saturday with 15mph winds. Less than ideal passing conditions. His last three starts vs the Texans he has 88 carries for 681 yards and 6 TDs. Looking for another 200+ yard effort Saturday.
J.K. Dobbins, RB: $5,800. Here’s another price I just don’t understand. With Lamar Jackson ruled out for Saturday the Ravens will again lean on the ground game against the Falcons. While Atlanta’s rushing defense hasn’t been awful they are certainly capable of giving up some yards on the ground. Dobbins is only averaging 14 carries over the 2 games since his return, but he’s put up over 120 yards in both contests on limited snaps with 8.8 yards per carry. I expect his workload to increase Saturday in the windy 13 degree weather in Baltimore.
D.K. Metcalf, WR: $7,100. Geno has to throw the ball to someone and D.K. has been his favorite target. He is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.5 catches and 86 yards over the last 4 weeks. He also has found the end-zone twice. He should see even more action with Tyler Lockett now sidelined.
D.J. Moore, WR: $5,500. Moore continues to excel with Sam Darnold under center. I understand that’s not saying much, but he’s gotten 58.8% of the air yards with Darnold at QB for the Panthers and that’s #1 in the NFL. With Darnold, Moore has actually ran more slot routes than before Darnold was the quarterback. He’s running almost 20% more of his routes from the slot with Darnold at QB, 68% of his total routes. The Lions are dead last in the NFL allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt in 2022. The Lions are also dead last in yards allowed to slot receivers as well. I’m on the over receiving yards prop here of 54.5 as well.
Darius Slayton, WR: $5,200. While Slayton has struggled some this season he hasn’t had the best match-ups. He’s come on the last two weeks where he has 11 catches on 15 targets. The Vikings Pass defense has been a problem all season long as they are one of just two teams to allow over 4,000 passing yards. The Vikings have allowed 45 or more points to the wide receiver position in four out of the last six weeks. With this game in the dome it could be one of the more pass friendly games on the ledger.
Juwan Johnson, TE: $3,800. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are both out for this one and the weather will be rough for downfield passing. Those factors should lead to more short targets for Johnson who outside of the 49ers game week 12 has produced top tier TE numbers since week 9. He has five touchdowns in his last four games and is targeted on over 23% of his routes since week 8. The Browns give up 11.8 yards per catch to tight ends and have allowed 14 TE touchdowns this season.
D’Andre Swift, Flex: $5,500. Swift and Jamaal Williams continue to split time in the backfield with Swift getting almost all the snaps in passing situations. Well take that passing game edge to the lineup card and hope the Panthers defense can put the Lions in multiple 3rd down situations on Satuday.
Cowboys, DST: $2,600. The Eagles are #3 in offense this season, but Jalen Hurts won’t play on Saturday. The Cowboys are 8th in total defense and tops in the league in takeaways and 2nd in the league in sacks. While Gardner Minshew has proven a capable backup in the NFL, he takes sacks on a high percentage of his dropbacks, and the Ball Hawk Cowboys at this bargain price have to be in play.
