Seton Hall is an Under team any way you slice it. Give Shaheen Holloway credit for having the Pirates playing a Top 20 level defensively, but as we found out the hard way last weekend, this offense sucks. They shoot under 44% from the field, just 31% from deep, and hold a brutal 0.9 assist/turnover ratio. Making matters worse, this team hasn’t played in a week, meaning the opportunity for a slow start is quite likely.
Butler has had a rough go of it as of late, but that has little to do with their defense. The Bulldogs are still a Top 80 defense by my estimation, and you could argue they are the most disciplined unit on that end of the floor in the country(under 13 fouls per game). Butler’s offense might be better percentage wise, but they are not aggressive from deep(277th in 3-pointers attempted) and rank 347th in offensive rebounding %.
Pace will be on our side here, and in addition to each defense having a clear edge, the dynamics of this matchup set up for a low-scoring 1H.
*CBB(1u): Stanford -10.5 vs California–9 PM CT
This is a major revenge spot for Stanford. Cal might be 3-17, but one of those wins came in loud fashion over these Cardinal early in conference play. Stanford has righted the ship as of late with 3 straight wins, and they’ll enjoy the luxury of playing their 4th straight home game tonight.
Cal is atrocious any way you slice it; they’re atrocious on the glass, they average just 61 PPG, and they hold an unfathomable 0.8 assist/turnover ratio. The Golden Bears do show competency at the Free Throw line, but they get to the line at just the 236th best rate in the country.
Quite frankly, I don’t think this game is coming down to FT’s. This is a home run spot for an experienced Stanford team, and they hold clear edges on both ends of the floor. This line tells you everything you need to know.
This might be the best game of the weekend. I also feel that this game is a distraction for both teams having to leave conference play. Tennessee is the best SEC at least right now, but they tend to have some shooting problems only ranking 141st in effective FG%. Texas also has those same issues ranking 300 on shot quality at Rim and three rate. Tennessee only ranks 178th in that department themselves and 138th in effective FG% Both teams are defensive oriented ranking top 8 in Shot Quality while the Vols are number one on Kenpom. Texas does play at a faster pace, but their defense tends to slow their opponents down some ranking 255th in opponent possession length at 17.9 seconds. Tennessee plays at an average pace themselves and their opponents rank 263rd in possession length. I like the under in this game being that it is a distraction from their conference goals, and both defenses should show up today. I think that both teams will be trying to figure each other out some and Shot Quality bets has this game only going to 127.3
Under 136 – 2.5 stars
Gonzaga vs Portland +13 O/U 163 (Nick Hub and Kiev O’Neil Consensus Play!)
Ready for a ton of offense and much less defense? This game has you covered. Gonzaga is a slightly overrated team still in my beliefs and it showed last week at home losing to Loyola Marymount. They at least got a decent win vs Pacific after that loss to Loyola Marymount at home. Portland is a sneaky team themselves and they are very good at home ranking 78th at home rating. They also shoot the three ball very well ranking 20th in three point percentage. Even though this Portland team had gotten blown out in Spokane earlier this year, I think this team matches up well against the Bulldogs. The Pilots have some of the same advantages in three point shooting ranking 9th in efficiency to the bulldogs ranking 338th on defense. At the Rim, the Pilots rank 5th on offensive shot quality efficiency to Gonzaga ranking 296th on defense. Both teams play very fast so you don’t have to worry about scoring. What’s not factored into Portland’s team stats is the fact that their best player Moses Wood missed games against Saint Mary’s, BYU, and Loyola. I think Gonzaga could be ripe for another loss here.
Today Kyle @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev @OBKiev discuss the NFL Wildcard Weekend with our special guest Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill. We have some big plays as well as college basketball for the weekend. Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!
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On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for January 27th along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – January 27th, 2023
Detroit Red Wings @ New York Islanders
Los Angeles Kings @ Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs
San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes
Vegas Golden Knights @ New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils @ Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Vancouver Canucks
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Virginia Tech: 12-8 – They went a spell without their guard Hunter Catoor, and I can see this team making a little run. Ranking 13th on shot quality in offensive turnovers and they are a good three point shooting team. Only ranked 46th on Kenpom with upside.
Iona: 13-6 – This team has also been injured some. Guard Walter Clayton missed three games and is back.
Washington: 13-9 – This team went on stretches without guys like Koren Johnson and Noah Williams. I think when healthy, they can look like they did vs St Mary’s. They are a tall team.
Sell High:
Auburn: 16-4. They haven’t even played a game vs Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. This team is very overrated and will be on the fade train.
Arizona State: 15-6 – This team can’t shoot the three for their lives ranking 280th from the Arc on Shot Quality. They are also a bad post up team.
Texas: 17-3 – This team ranks 9th on Kenpom even without their origional coach. They have a bad rim&3 rate ranking 225th on Shot Quality and they are about to get into the Kansases, Baylors, and Iowa State’s in their schedule.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Mike North @North2North from The Odds Couple and ESPN1000 comes on to break down NFL conference weekend as well as Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 From @ShotQualityBets breaks down some HUGE college basketball games for the weekend!First, Kiev talks about some promotions that we are running at The OddsBreakers! Then, Mike comes on and the guys get right into Chicago sports with some early baseball looks and a FREE PLAY! Next, Mike and Kiev get right into the big NFL games with some more picks for the weekend! After that, Justin comes on and the guys get into the SEC/Big 12 Challenge as well as some buy low, sell high teams. Next, the guys talk break down some huge games for this Saturday! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
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Pac 12 barking home dogs!
UCLA vs USC +5 O/U 134
What more can you want than an undervalued home dog? This game is a clear rivalry and these cross town teams hate each other. UCLA is a fine team who has a very high rating from beating a lot of middle of the road teams. They don’t do anything bad at all, they play good defense yet they don’t do anything great on offense ranking 110th in FG% and 22nd in adjusted efficiency. UCLA I feel is quite overrated without a top 25 win on Kenpom. USC tends to get hot and cold from three point land, but they do play amazing defense down low ranking 18th in opponent near proximity shooting. USC Ranks 9th in near proximity shooting themselves so I really like what they can do at the Rim. UCLA does not take a lot of threes ranking 350th in attempts in the nation and that is where they will hurt this game. The Bruins like to take too many mid range shots, and the Trojans defend that well ranking 6th in opponent mid range percentage. These teams played earlier this year at UCLA and it was a two point game. USC hasn’t lost at home since the first game of the year. Take the Trojans
USC +5 – 3 stars
Arizona State vs Washington +2.5 O/U 143.5
ASU is the name and being overrated is their game. The Sun Devils were solid at one time beating teams like Creighton, Colorado and Michigan, but what we found out is that Creighton was with out their top player in Ryan Kalkbrenner, Michigan had a bunch of youngsters in mid November, and Colorado is just plain not good. Arizona state has been very lucky as you can see, and that luck has faded some when facing teams like San Francisco, Arizona, and USC losing by nine or more points each. The Huskies on the other hand have been unlucky losing guys like Koren Johnson and Noah Williams in streaks during the season. When healthy, this Huskies team kept it within three points playing at Arizona as well as beating Seattle, and besting number seven on Kenpom Saint Mary’s. Washington hasn’t been the greatest home team, but they do shoot better than ASU at 43.4% to 43.2%. ASU struggles from the free throw line at 68.5% ranking 261st in the nation which doesn’t bode well for a favorite. I see this spot as a revenge spot for the Huskies at home and they win this one outright.
We only have five games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down one of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Carolina defeated Dallas earlier in the season winning 5-4 with Martin Necas scoring the winner in overtime. However, it will be a completely different goaltender matchup tonight as Anderson and Oettinger have been confirmed as the starters.
The Hurricanes have turned things around winning four of their last five, after losing four straight. In their most recent game, Max Pacioretty suffered a likely season-ending Achilles injury after he had just returned from a similar injury. Carolina has faced adversity all season with injuries, specifically in net. Frederick Anderson recently returned from a lower-body injury and has been quick to get back to his All-Star form.
Dallas has found little consistency as of late going 5-5 in their last ten games. They’re coming off an overtime loss to Buffalo where they faced a hot goaltender in Craig Anderson. Before that, the Stars’ offense was clicking on full cylinders as they had scored three or more goals in each of their last five games. The Stars rank 2nd in goals against per game averaging 2.55 anchored by Jake Oettinger. He’s been great this season with a +18.2 GSAx ranking 5th and has a shutout in two of his last four starts.
CAR: F. Anderson (9-3-0), 2.40 GAA, .910 SV% [CONFIRMED]
DAL: J. Oettinger (21-7-5), 2.22 GAA, .925 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Pick(s):
Edmonton Oilers 1st Period -0.5 (-105) – Caesars
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
On the year, the Oilers are averaging 1.06 GF/G and 0.79 GA/G in the first period. At home, Edmonton averages 1.00 GF/G and 0.92 GA/G. Columbus on the other hand is averaging 0.57 GF/G and 0.94 GA/G this season. On the road, those numbers drop to 0.35 GF and 0.70 GA. In Edmonton’s last five games, they’ve led after the first period in four of those matchups. Columbus has been trailing in the first period in three of their last five.
Joonas Korpisalo who’s been confirmed as the starter for Columbus tonight has struggled as of late allowing 4/3/6 goals against in his last three starts.
Vancouver Canucks/ Seattle Kraken Over 6.5 (-130) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units
The Canucks defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 last night with new head coach Rick Tocchet making his debut behind the bench. Historically, Vancouver has dominated Seattle winning each of their six previous matchups against them. In five of those games, the total went over.
Collin Delia got the start last night for Vancouver so Spencer Martin will get the nod tonight. He hasn’t been great this year with -16.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 26 games played. In his last four starts, he’s allowed four or more goals against in three of those games. Last week against Tampa Bay, he allowed four goals on ten shots and was promptly pulled. Earlier in December, he faced off against the Kraken allowing 5 goals against on thirty-one shots.
Martin Jones will get the start for the Seattle Kraken. He’s also struggled this year with a 2.86 GAA and .894 SV%. In his last three starts, he’s allowed five goals against in two of those games. In his one start against Vancouver this season he allowed five goals against.
Both of these starting goalies have been sub-par this season and against their opponents. The Canucks showed some signs of life under their new head coach and I expect them to come out firing again tonight. Seattle’s offense has been in a bit of a slump but Vancouver ranks 31st in goals against which should help them out.
Player Props to Target:
Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
Brady Tkachuk has gone over this number in four of his last five games at home. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game. The Islanders rank 17th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.4. On the road, that number increases to 32.9. He’s on Ottawa’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. New York has taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games. In their previous matchup against the Islanders this year, Tkachuk recorded 6 shots on goal on 11 shot attempts.
William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – BetRivers
William Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Rangers rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.3. On the road, that number increases to 29.8.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Blue Jackets rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.2. On the road, that number increases to 35.9. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers. He’s on Edmonton’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Blue Jackets have taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – Caesars
Oliver Bjorkstrand has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Canucks rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.8. On the road, that number increases to 33.5. They also give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. Bjorkstrand has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his two previous matchups against the Canucks.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’re back with a Wednesday Free Play for everyone! So far this season we’re up 27.63 Units in college basketball thanks to a 23-4-1 seven day run last week. This week we’re 4-3 so far and looking to add some more to the bankroll tonight with three games we like on the docket.
My Free play features the West Virginia Mountaineers (11-8 Overall, 1-6 Big 12) traveling to Lubbock, Texas to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-9 Overall, 0-7 Big 12). They will tip it off at 7:00 ET.
Both these teams are struggling in the most dominant conference in the nation up to this point. They have however for the most part played competitive games and had chances to earn more victories than they have shown so far. Texas Tech only has two double digit losses in conference play, and West Virginia only one. The Red Raiders are led by Senior Forward Kevin Obanor who averages 14.7 points per game and 6.3 boards per contest. Texas Tech is very balanced in scoring with six players averaging at least 9.6 points per game. West Virginia also has great balance with 5 players scoring 10 or more points per game. They are led by senior forward Tre Mitchell at 13.1 points per game.
For me this one comes down to a few main factors. First Texas Tech cant seem to find their footing on offense since the start of conference play. Kenpom has their offensive efficiency rating at 94.1 in Big 12 play which would put them in the bottom 50 overall in the country for the season. West Virginia plays solid defense across the board checking in at 42nd on Kenpom with AdjD. The other piece of the puzzle I dialed in on is turnovers. West Virginia forces them on 22.1% of opponents possessions and is 9th in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate. Texas Tech turns the ball over on 20.5% of their trips down the court. They are 278th in points allowed off turnovers and really struggle against teams that apply defensive pressure which West Virginia does very well, especially in the half court. Both teams have opposite home/road performance splits this season as well with West Virginia better away from Morgantown and Texas Tech struggling more in Lubbock. The last piece of the equation for me is the guys behind the benches. Mark Adams went 12-6 in his first season in Lubbock, but that as mostly with Chris Beard’s players that stuck around. His head coaching record at Texas Pan-American, although a long time ago was less than stellar. Bob Huggins’ teams haven’t been great the last five years, but this is a guy with an almost .700 career win percentage and 927 career head coaching victories. The game hasn’t passed him by and I trust him to push the right buttons in this one. I think the wrong team is favored tonight. Get behind Huggy Bear.
Take West Virginia +3.5 points for 1 Unit and West Virginia ML +140 for 1 Unit
Well we have arrived at Conference Championship weekend. I know four fan bases and anyone holding future(s) tickets on these four teams are stoked! The only unfortunate thing would be, football only has three total games left!
I’m going to break down my plays and how I plan on approaching C.C. weekend.
49ers at Eagles -2 1/2 (O/U 46)
Most of my action is going to come in the early time slot(3:00 Eastern), yes, the Eagles have been statistically one of the best teams in the NFC for most of the season and were still undefeated the 2nd week of November. With that said, I think last week’s devastation of the New York football Giants is slightly an overreaction. They dominated in every facet of the game, but the same thing happened back in Week 14. The Giants weaknesses are the Eagles strengths, they don’t match up with them and lets be honest there at a huge deficit talent wise. Of Philly’s last six games, three, yes three have come against the Giants. Which leads me to, who have they have faced this season outside of their division schedule? The remaining 11 games they faced two playoff teams(Min and Jax). The Vikings in my opinion are their SIGNATURE win, beating Cousins in a Prime-time match up on MNF at home nonetheless, yikes. I’m not sitting here saying strength of schedule is everything, but I think it should be taken into deep consideration that they haven’t faced a juggernaut like the 49ers yet! This leads to the SF side of things, no they haven’t had the most ferocious schedule either, but they have most surely faced more quality teams(Kc, Lac, Mia). Travel much? Their sky-miles did not get very high in 2022. Since Oct 23rd they have traveled to Mexico, Seattle, Las Vegas and LA, all under an hour plane rides. Only three true road games in that span. They are RESTED, I think that will play a huge factor in the 2nd Half Sunday.
Defense’s good vs the run has been the difference in the playoffs so far, but hey that is most years right? SF run D is 2nd in the league at 3.4 yards per rush, which is Sirianni’s bread and butter. They attack teams on the ground and counter with a threatening play action, then Hurts gets to do as he pleases. Without their run game, Hurts wont have an empty canvas to do as he wants. The play making will come down to him stepping up in the pocket and making plays vs SF’s dominant pass rush. I believe over the course of the game, he will ‘tuck it and run’ quite a few times, almost somewhat panicking. Especially, if they are behind ‘The SF defense has 9 INT’s in the last 5 games, if they can steal a few possessions and keep Philly’s offense off the field for large amounts of time they will have a hard time putting up big numbers. Which leads to the Philly run D, they are 24th in the league at 4.7 yards per rush. Shanahan has to be licking his chops hearing those stats! McCaffery, Mitchell and maybe even a Mason sighting are going to have a field day running the ball down their throats. I’m expecting big clock control for SF keeping Hurts and company on the sideline.
Ultimately, I think this will be a boxing match, I see the Eagles throwing the first haymaker, BUT when Purdy is ‘still standing’ LOOK-OUT!
49ers +2 1/2 (3 units)
Hurts over 47 1/2 rush yards (1.5 units)
Leans: Look to live bet SF if PHI has an early lead.
Bengals at Chiefs +1 1/2 (O/U 47)
With all the uncertainty with Mahomes and the ankle injury, I’m staying away from the side and total in this game, but I have a few props I really like!
Joe Mixon was turned loose in the Buffalo game, we have seen that a few times this year. Most fans remember the Carolina game when he scored 5 total TD’s. He got a ‘freshening’ in early December with a knee injury when he missed two weeks. Last week vs Buffalo he looked stronger than ever and he faces a defense that has NOT been good vs the run. The last 9 weeks, KC has given up almost 120 yards a game vs the run.
There were staggering holes last week vs Jacksonville, and I don’t see that changing Sunday!
Mixon over 58 1/2 rush yards (1.25 units)
Mixon Alternate Line over 79 1/2 rush yards +154 (0.5 unit)
Butker over 1 1/2 Field Goals -139 (0.75 unit)
Leans: Mixon Alternate Line over 99 1/2 rush yards +395 (0.25 unit)
Good luck to everyone playing the games this weekend- Eric Rocco
