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Podcast 86 – 22 – With Justin Perri from Shot Quality – NFL Week 14 Plays – College Football Bowl Motivation – UFC 282 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE show for you today!  Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 from @ShotQualityBets comes on to discuss a new and great way of handicapping college basketball!  First, Kiev gets into the FULL SLATE of bowl games going over potential motivation and home field advantages.  Next, Kiev talks NFL Football week 14 games with some FREE PLAYS as well as his refuse to lose teaser that is 7-5-1 so far for the year.  Next, Kiev gets into a little UFC 282 with some plays and some leans.  Then, Justin comes on to talk about ShotQualityBets.com and how the site is predicting some big winners.  Use the promo-code ODDS23 for 20% off!   Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend!  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Week 14 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:

  • Cincinnati hosting Cleveland after beating KC is a maybe
  • The Raiders at the Rams after beating the Chargers is one.

Get Up Spots:

  • Jacksonville at Tennessee after being schooled by Detroit.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Seattle looking past Carolina to San Francisco.

NFL Week 13 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The Jets out-gained the Vikings 486 to 287 yet lost 27-22.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone efficiency killed the Jets.

Washington out-gained NY Giants 411 to 316 yet tied them 20-20.   Equal turnover and bad special teams and red zone hurt the Commies.

The Seahawks out-gained the Rams 438 to 319 yet only won 27-23.   Equal turnovers but poor red zone hurt the birds.

The Bears out-gained the Packers 409 to 357 yet lost 28-19.  A 3-0 Justin Fields turnover special killed the Bears.

 

College Football Championship Week Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

TCU out-gained Kansas State 469 to 404 yet lost in OT 31-28.  A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.

Coastal Carolina’s yards were garbage time but the rain hurt them bad.

LSU’s yards were garbage time and they were dominated.

Boise State outgained Fresno State 321 to 245 yet lost 28-16.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and a freshman QB hurt the Broncos.

North Carolina’s yards were garbage time.

Purdue out-gained Michigan 456 to 386 yet lost 43-22.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the Boilermakers.

Two More NBA Premiums

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Adding two more, like them too much not to. Lowering unit size to proceed with caution.

Celtics +1 (-112), to win 1 unit
  • This line has moved too much
  • Best team in the NBA getting value
  • They’ve handled their business in tough spots
  • The Suns are very good defensively at home, but can any team totally limit Boston right now?
  • I still have Boston favored by 2 points in this– too much value not to take
Kings/Bucks under 235.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
  • Another huge total and even though the Kings routinely hit these, we should only bet overs on totals this big in unique situations
  • The Bucks are healthier than they’ve ever been all season
  • Giannis and Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday can clamp onto the Kings’ stars and limit their production
  • Sabonis, in particularly, has a very difficult matchup against Lopez/Giannis tonight
  • I think Milwaukee sees stopping the Kings’ offense as a personal challenge– UNDER
—-
Hornets +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
  • This is too many points, period
  • The Hornets have been playing better, keeping games close against elite teams like the Bucks, Clippers, Wizards, and solid wins against the Timberwolves and 76ers
  • Charlotte seems to finally have more an identity– a try hard, more cohesive unit and plays over their heads because, well, they need to in order to keep up. They’re not turning it over, they’re collecting offensive boards, and their ball movement is cleaner
  • I grade the Nets as slightly better than an average team, and the Hornets as 4 points worse than an average team right now
  • Nets only have a +0.7 point differential
  • Charlotte is -5.8, but most of that is b/c of their losing stretch in November, where they were murdered by teams over and over while they incurred myriad injuries
  • Two eastern conference teams, it means something to Charlotte
  • The Nets are capable of blowing out a team like the Hornets but they rarely do, and their lack of team chemistry (b/c of their selfish stars) is a more frequent factor
  • I have Nets -6.5, that’s enough value for me.
  • On an ordinary day, this would be a 1.5 unit play. Because of the way our bets are going lately, we’ll keep it at 1 unit
Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit

  • The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
  • Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
  • It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
  • This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
  • This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
  • They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Thunder/Grizzlies over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
  • Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incoming
  • OKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 games
  • They’re also a top 10 offense who’s learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usual
  • Memphis runs faster and more explosive at home
  • Their offense has been clicking, even when their stars are out
  • I set this at 235 – taking the over
Celtics/Suns under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
  • This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
  • Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
  • Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
  • Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
  • But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
  • I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
  • Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
  • I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG

December 7th CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

A 1-2-1 night drops me to 11-11-1 on the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.

*CBB(0.5u): Miami(FL) TT OVER 84.5 vs Cornell –6 PM CT

Cornell is a team that runs with a lot of pace, but when stepping up in competition, that strategy is really going to hurt their defense(which ranks 234th according to KenPom). They have played only 1 Power 5 opponent this season(Boston College); despite having an offense that ranks outside the KenPom Top 200, the Golden Eagles had no issue putting up 79 on Cornell that night.

Miami presents a set of athletes that the Big Red simply haven’t dealt with this year. While the Hurricanes don’t specialize at 3-point shooting, they are great inside and should feast in this matchup considering Cornell ranks just 221st in defensive rebounding %. The ‘Canes are also great from the foul line, hitting nearly 75% of their FT’s. With the pace Cornell is going to bring into Coral Gables, I can see Miami getting to 90 here. Cornell could keep this competitive with their good jump shooting, but I will isolate the matchup I feel best about. 

*CBB(0.5u): Southern Illinois -4 vs Indiana State–7 PM CT

This line is very telling; 8-1 Indiana State is a sizable ‘dog to run-of-the-mill 5-3 Southern Illinois. First of all, I don’t like this 2nd straight road game spot for ISU after they played at Miami OH just a few days ago. Secondly, I don’t think the Sycamores’ 8-1 record is a good reflection of their talent considering they have played the 20th easiest schedule in the nation up to this point. I don’t think you can expect them to keep their current pace of play up in a road, conference game against an underrated Salukis squad.

The best unit on the floor tonight is clearly Southern Illinois’ defense; they rank 46th according to KenPom and have the likes of Oklahoma State and UNLV to 60 or less this year. While they slipped a bit on the road against a good Saint Louis this past weekend, I think they are equipped to shut down ISU tonight. Salukis win this game comfortably.

*CBB(0.5u): Arizona State/SMU UNDER 135.5–8 PM CT

This matchup checks a lot of the boxes I look for when playing Unders. Both teams shoot less than 70% from the FT line, less than 30% from 3pt land, are not great offensive rebounding bunches, and hold Assist/Turnover ratios around 1. Many people saw Arizona State blitz Michigan a few weeks ago, but that was an anomaly for this offense; they were held to just 60 points in their last road matchup at Colorado. SMU is clearly not the same team we’ve become accustomed to, but that has much more to say about the offensive playmaking they’ve lost. This is a major step-up spot for the Mustangs playing a Power 5 opponent, and I don’t think they have a whole lot of trouble getting stops. Still, Arizona State’s defense is by far the best unit on the floor, and SMU’s offensive woes are too gruesome to overlook.

I expect this to be a competitive game, but Under is the best play.

Full NBA Premiums, 12.7

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

It was pretty cool when AD got injured and left in the 1Q, since he was pretty much the main reason for my Lakers’ handicap. Sweet.

PS – the Celtics/Suns total shot up quickly after we gave out our picks so I assume everyone got under 232.5 in. We made the necessary changes. Move onward, all we can do.
Hornets +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
  • This is too many points, period
  • The Hornets have been playing better, keeping games close against elite teams like the Bucks, Clippers, Wizards, and solid wins against the Timberwolves and 76ers
  • Charlotte seems to finally have more an identity– a try hard, more cohesive unit and plays over their heads because, well, they need to in order to keep up. They’re not turning it over, they’re collecting offensive boards, and their ball movement is cleaner
  • I grade the Nets as slightly better than an average team, and the Hornets as 4 points worse than an average team right now
  • Nets only have a +0.7 point differential
  • Charlotte is -5.8, but most of that is b/c of their losing stretch in November, where they were murdered by teams over and over while they incurred myriad injuries
  • Two eastern conference teams, it means something to Charlotte
  • The Nets are capable of blowing out a team like the Hornets but they rarely do, and their lack of team chemistry (b/c of their selfish stars) is a more frequent factor
  • I have Nets -6.5, that’s enough value for me.
  • On an ordinary day, this would be a 1.5 unit play. Because of the way our bets are going lately, we’ll keep it at 1 unit
Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit

  • The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
  • Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
  • It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
  • This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
  • This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
  • They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Thunder/Grizzlies over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
  • Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incoming
  • OKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 games
  • They’re also a top 10 offense who’s learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usual
  • Memphis runs faster and more explosive at home
  • Their offense has been clicking, even when their stars are out
  • I set this at 235 – taking the over
Celtics/Suns under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
  • This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
  • Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
  • Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
  • Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
  • But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
  • I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
  • Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
  • I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG

Early NBA Premiums, 12.7

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit

  • The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
  • Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
  • It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
  • This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
  • This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
  • They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Celtics/Suns under 231 (-105), to win 1.5 units
  • This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
  • Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
  • Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
  • Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
  • But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
  • I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
  • Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
  • I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG

Fantasy Football Week 14

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye Weeks:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Key Injuries:

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo with a broken foot.   Out for season.
  • QB Lamar Jackson with a knee injury.  Week to week.
  • TE Hayden Hurt with a calf.
  • WR Courtland Sutton with a hammy.
  • QB Matthew Stafford has a spinal cord contusion and is out for the season.
  • RB Kenneth Walker III ruled out with a jammed ankle.
  • WR Traylon Burks with a concussion.

Waiver Wire:

  • QB Brock Purdy for the Jimmy G injury.
  • QB Jared Goff from the Lions.
  • QB Tyler Huntley for the Lamar injury.
  • TE Mitchell Wilcox for the Hurst injury.
  • WR DJ Chark had 6 targets and the Lions are legit now on offense.
  • WR Nico Collins had 10 targets.
  • WR Devonte Parker from the Patriots.
  • WR Michael Gallop is doing well.
  • RB James Cook had 14 carries and 6 receptions.   owned in only 24% leagues.

Non-starters trending up for week 14.

  • WR Mack Hollins vs the Rams will probably not be put on Darious Slayton like Adams will.
  • WR DJ Chark against the Vikings could be good.
  • WR Christian Kirk vs the titans will be huge.
  • QB Mack Jones vs the Cardinals D.
  • WR Adam Thielen vs the Lions should work.
  • WR Chris Olave vs the Falcons is big.
  • RB Gus Edwards might finally make some noise with backup QB
  • RB Jeff Wilson vs the Chargers is nice.

Busts:

  • RB Travis Etienne vs the Titans is suspect.
  • RB Najee Harris vs the Ravens is difficult.
  • RB Leonard Fournette vs the 49ers is bad.
  • QB Daniel Jones vs the Eagles is rough.
  • WR Darious Slayton vs the Eagles isn’t good.
  • TE George Kittle vs the Buccaneers is suspect.
  • WR Devin Duvernay vs the Steelers might be rough.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk is toast vs the Buccaneers.

Nasty Sleeper:   Gus Edwards vs the Steelers.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets: Mental Health in Betting, Dec 7 NBA slate, and a Big Announcement

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Contest-winner and pro handicapper Chris Farley discusses the mental toll of handicapping and how to navigate/understand some of its toughest challenges, he tackles the December 7th NBA slate, and he makes a big announcement! Don’t miss out!

Want Chris’ premium picks? Well, you should probably consider it. Chris started off his NBA season white hot, up nearly 7 units and hitting at 58% out the gate. He also had a big week in NFL Week 10 and historically, the second half of the season is where he does best! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:

  • 2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
  • Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
  • 2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
  • Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
  • Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
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