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December 23rd CBB Play(Bonus CFB Play)

By
Michael Fordham
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A 3-0 Thursday in College Hoops brings me to 31-24-1 on the season! Short card for today, so I’m rolling with just 1 play that tips off this afternoon. I’ve also added a small addition on tonight’s Wake Forest/Missouri game.

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.

*CBB(0.5u): George Mason TT OVER 79.5 vs Coppin State–3 PM CT

Playing against this Coppin State defense is a dream for any opposing offense. The Eagles have a bottom 30 defense in all of CBB and pair that with running at a top 20 pace. Specifically, Coppin State is especially poor on the glass, ranking 349th in defensive rebounding percentage. I expect an especially weak effort from Coppin State on that end of the floor considering they played a 2OT game less than 48 hours ago. George Mason won’t be a high-flying offense come A-10 play, but the Patriots do a nice job of knocking down outside shots(37% from deep). I’m perplexed as to why this TT doesn’t start with an 8; Coppin State has already allowed 90 or more on 5 sepeate occasions this year.

*CFB(0.5u): Missouri +2.5 vs Wake Forest–5:30 PM CT

This won’t be one of my stronger plays this bowl season, but after getting some line movement in our direction, I’ll fire on Mizzou for a 0.5u. I talked about this game a few nights ago on my YouTube channel; see analysis below.

Full NBA Premium Picks, 12.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Obviously we could handicap all day and probably have many more bets today, but that seems like a bad idea and it’s probably part of the reason why we stumbled earlier this month. I love all of our plays today; added the Cavs and Kings – let’s keep humming!
 
Clippers +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.
Bucks/Nets over 225.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this matchup for a big offensive exhibition. As much as the Warriors’ road woes and injuries are a big part of Brooklyn’s historic night Wednesday, it doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t the biggest part of that story. Kevin Durant and company are humming like they never have before. There’s actual chemistry there. They’re having fun. They’re trusting their roles, and it’s showing on the court. They’re masterful scorers in the mid-range, and they’re increasingly skilled in the 3-point game. As Joe Harris warms up, that’ll get even better. Meanwhile, my #1 rated team, the Milwaukee Bucks, are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland. And a lot of that was the Cavs’ defense. Cleveland forced 21 turnovers that night, a figure not reminiscent of the Bucks we know. Reprogrammed for a big night, the bucks should look way better Friday (aka, regression). I think both teams will want to attack early and this becomes a superstar competition more than a defensive battle. Give me the over – I got it at 234.
Knicks -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

The Bulls have been dominated by the Knicks twice in two different looking games and for good reason. One was more about the Knicks’ defense and other more about the Knicks’ offense, but either way, NYK matches up well against Chicago. They’ve also been extremely efficient against bad defenses lately and worry not, Chicago is a bad defense. They can get a block here and there but against an interior-driving team like NYK, led by Jalen Brunson, they fold real quick. We’ve seen it before – the Knicks are just too physical for the Bulls right now, who just got two phony wins against teams in disarray. Give me the Knicks to respond at home.
Cavs -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Cavs superior defense will be a problem for Toronto tonight. Pascal Siakam had an MVP like performance against a tired Knicks team the other night, and that’s the biggest reason why they were able to eke out a win. But Siakam isn’t built and the Raptors can’t depend on him to score like that in every game. And it won’t happen tonight. Cleveland is tops of the NBA in mid-range and rim defense, the two areas where Toronto prefers to shoot the ball from. Which then begs the question– why have the Cavs already lost twice to Toronto? The first game was in the very beginning of the season; it takes awhile for a team with new skill players to come together. And in the second matchup– Cleveland faced Toronto without Jarett Allen. Allen is probably their most important defensive piece and when both bigs are healthy, the paint is a really tough area for any opponent to score. Lamar Stevens, who would add another big and another defensive boost, is also questionable. We’ll like this wager even more if both play and we think they will, but I still love this spot for Cleveland at home in a series where they need to snag their first win. Also, the Raptors aren’t as good of a perimeter defense. Besides Kevin Durant, no one is playing more minutes and shooting a more effective FG % than Donovan Mitchell. I think he can torch Cleveland tonight. That’s exactly what Mitchell and Garland did to the Bucks the other night. Okay I’ve written long enough- go Cavs!
Grizzlies -2 (-110), to win 2 units
According to the NBA Injury Report, the Grizzlies will be as healthy as they’ve ever been . Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and even Desmond Bane should suit up in this big Western Conference showdown. Morant recently said he’s not worried about anyone in the West, which the Suns’ probably take offense to, but that doesn’t mean they can do anything about it on Friday. According to multiple reports, Booker and Payne will both be out tomorrow, two of the biggest contributors to the Suns’ offense. That’s not a good thing against the hyper-paced Grizzlies. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, the Grizzlies will be as aggressive as ever in this big spotlight game. That’s always how they score, but driving to the rim angry is even better when you’re already in a bad mood. I love Memphis at this line.
Kings 1H over 60.5 (-120), to win 1.25 units
This game could be a blowout but I’m not as confident about that as I am the setup for Sacramento to score a lot of points. I’m also not as confident in the full game total over since it could be a blowout and things tend to slow down at that point. This is one of the worst spots for any team I’ve seen all season – Washington is on their 6th game in 10 days and the 6th and final leg of their horrific road trip. Fresh off a defeat by the Jazz where the Wizards simply ran out of gas late in the contest, now they have to pick themselves up the very next day and play a rested Kings team at home. At this point we all know how explosive the Kings can be. They’re healthy, they’ve been at home, and their offense (much like the Jazz) runs in transition as good as any in the NBA. That’s the achilles heel for the Wizards’ defense, especially when they’re this exhausted. All bets on the Kings are probably good ones, but we’re going with a fast start against a tired defense.

Correction: LAC +3.5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Correction – you should get the Clippers at +3.5, it’s available (PointsBet, for example).

Clippers +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.

More NBA Premiums, 12.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Knicks -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

The Bulls have been dominated by the Knicks twice in two different looking games and for good reason. One was more about the Knicks’ defense and other more about the Knicks’ offense, but either way, NYK matches up well against Chicago. They’ve also been extremely efficient against bad defenses lately and worry not, Chicago is a bad defense. They can get a block here and there but against an interior-driving team like NYK, led by Jalen Brunson, they fold real quick. We’ve seen it before – the Knicks are just too physical for the Bulls right now, who just got two phony wins against teams in disarray. Give me the Knicks to respond at home.
Clippers +3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.

Early NBA Premiums, 12.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Another winning night – we go 2-0 Thursday, cementing a 10-2 three day streak. Can’t hate on that. Keep trusting the process.

This is a HUGE slate so we’ll probably have more plays tomorrow. Gotta be careful on big slates like this though – Don’t want to be over exposed.

Bucks/Nets over 225.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this matchup for a big offensive exhibition. As much as the Warriors’ road woes and injuries are a big part of Brooklyn’s historic night Wednesday, it doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t the biggest part of that story. Kevin Durant and company are humming like they never have before. There’s actual chemistry there. They’re having fun. They’re trusting their roles, and it’s showing on the court. They’re masterful scorers in the mid-range, and they’re increasingly skilled in the 3-point game. As Joe Harris warms up, that’ll get even better. Meanwhile, my #1 rated team, the Milwaukee Bucks, are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland. And a lot of that was the Cavs’ defense. Cleveland forced 21 turnovers that night, a figure not reminiscent of the Bucks we know. Reprogrammed for a big night, the bucks should look way better Friday (aka, regression). I think both teams will want to attack early and this becomes a superstar competition more than a defensive battle. Give me the over – I got it at 234.
Grizzlies -2 (-110), to win 2 units
According to the NBA Injury Report, the Grizzlies will be as healthy as they’ve ever been . Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and even Desmond Bane should suit up in this big Western Conference showdown. Morant recently said he’s not worried about anyone in the West, which the Suns’ probably take offense to, but that doesn’t mean they can do anything about it on Friday. According to multiple reports, Booker and Payne will both be out tomorrow, two of the biggest contributors to the Suns’ offense. That’s not a good thing against the hyper-paced Grizzlies. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, the Grizzlies will be as aggressive as ever in this big spotlight game. That’s always how they score, but driving to the rim angry is even better when you’re already in a bad mood. I love Memphis at this line.

NFL Week 16 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of 12/21/22

Sharp Money On:

  • Saints +3 to +2.5 at the Browns – 38% tickets and 71% of the money.
  • Ravens -6.5 to -7.5 hosting the Falcons – 41% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Patriots +4 to +3 hosting the Bengals – 20% tickets and 70% of the money.
  • Buccaneers -3 to -6.5 at the Cardinals – 64% tickets and 94% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Jaguars vs Jets under 42 to 36.5 – 51% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Saints vs Browns under 38 to 32 – 64% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Bills vs Bears under 45.5 to 41 – 56% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Raiders vs Steelers under 41 to 39 – 58% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Packers vs Dolphins over 46.5 to 49.5 – 44% tickets and 93% of the money.

College Football Week 17 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of 12/21/22

Sharp Money On:

  • Air Force +5.5 to +3.5 vs Baylor – 60% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Kansas +4.5 to +2.5 vs Arkansas – 62% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • South Carolina +4.5 to +2.5 vs Notre Dame – 59% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Pittsburgh +4 to +3.5 vs UCLA – 36% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Wyoming +2.5 to PK vs Ohio – 42% tickets and 70% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina over 60 – 62 – 85% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • Pitt vs UCLA under 57.5 to 54.5 – 45% tickets and 90% of the money.

NFL Week 15 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The Ravens out-gained the Browns 324 to 283 yet lost 13-3.   A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible special teams and red zone hurt the birds.

The Eagles out-Gained the Bears 421 to 248 yet only won 25-20.  A nasty 3-1 turnover ratio killed the cover.

The Chiefs out-gained the Texans 502 to 219 yet only won 30-24.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad special teams hurt the Chiefs.

The Buccaneers out-gained the Bengals 396 to 237 yet lost 34-23.  A 4-1 turnover ratio killed them.

The Commies out-gained the Giants 387 to 288 yet lost 20-12.  A 2-0 red zone turnover ratio killed the Commanders.

December 22nd CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

Sitting at 28-24-1 on the season, I’m rolling with 3 CBB plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a rough Wednesday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(0.5u): Jackson State/Stephen F Austin OVER 142.5–2 PM CT

Both of these teams rank in the top quarter of the country in pace, and Jackson State ranks outside of the Top 300 in defensive efficiency. SFA shoots 49% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc; with their pace in mind, they should be able to get whatever they want offensively. Jackson State doesn’t have that sort of pedigree offensively, but context is needed. The Tigers have played one of the 5 hardest schedules in the country, already having matched up with Michigan, Indiana, TCU, Mississippi State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. When you exclude these games against laughably superior competition, JSU is averaging 74 PPG. The Lumberjacks won’t provide the level of resistance defensively that the Tigers are used to facing, and I think JSU will hold their own.

*CBB(0.5u): Texas Southern TT UNDER 60 @ Wichita State–7 PM CT

Wichita State is absolutely dreadful offensively, and I actually think Texas Southern can hold their own on that end of the floor. What TSU won’t be able to do, however, is create any separation offensively. Already this year, we’ve seen Wichita State allow 55 points or less on 5 separate occasions. Their game plan will be to slow the pace of this game down considerably and suffocate TSU on the defensive end. Given the Tigers shoot just 41% from the field, 26.5% from beyond the arc, and hold an assist/turnover ratio under 1, I see that plan working out quite nicely. Why does this TT start with a 6?

*CBB(0.5u): Illinois/Missouri OVER 153.5–8 PM CT

Illinois is going to get whatever they want down low in this matchup. Missouri is one of the smallest teams in all of CBB, a big reason why they rank just 309th in defensive rebounding %. Illinois, on the other hand, is a Top 40 offensive rebounding team in the country. Give Mizzou credit for their 10-1 start, but they’ve only played 1 Power 5 team up to this point; Kansas hung 95 on the Tigers rather easily.

For as much as I want to fade Missouri’s defense, I do trust their offense in this matchup. Mizzou has shot over 50% from the floor, over 36% from beyond the arc, over 74% from the FT line, and they hold an astounding 1.6 assist/turnover ratio. To top it all off, they run at a Top 15 pace in all of CBB. For as strong as I perceive Illinois to be defensively, they will be pushed to their limits facing a very complete Mizzou offense that runs with a lot of tempo.

NBA Premiums, 12.22

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Another 4-1 night in the books, and I’m telling you guys this feels different. Of course I did an insane deep dive earlier this week and that’s definitely helping, but I also think things are starting to make at least a little more sense.

Onto more WINS – these will be our only two plays today. Love what we’re doing – let’s not ruin it with too much exposure.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 2 units
Jazz 1H TT over 57.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
I hope everyone got this number, but it’s at a friendly -6.5 at most books now and I’d take that, too. Up to you if you’d rather put less units on that line. This game adds up beautifully for Utah. First, the psychology of it all. Washington already beat the Jazz once when Utah was floundering and the Wizards found a rhythm, but that’s not reminiscent of who they are now. Utah has one game left before they can enjoy a long holiday weekend at home, while the Wizards are on the FIFTH LEG of a horrific 6-game road trip that ends tomorrow, so this is the first night of a back to back. Washington also won their last contest, a big W in Phoenix, but that was more because of the Suns’ turning it over and fouling way too much. The Jazz are an AMAZING transition team and the Wizards, well, are not. They can’t stop it and they’re not good at responding with fast points of their own. This game is all about who controls the tempo and we strongly feel Utah will command it. It’s a way better spot for a more potent offensive team, and I think they take Washington to the barn and beat em up. Oh yea, and Kristaps Porzingis showed up as questionable on the injury report, too. Utah averages 58 ppg in the first half, too, and the line is telling us that Utah, as the favorite, is going to SCORE tonight. Go Jazz!
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