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The Farmers Insurance Open – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
-

Jon Rahm captures the American Express outdueling Davis Thompson down the stretch. This is the second consecutive event that Rahm has won. He now moves up to 3rd in the OWGR. Rahm’s the current favorite this week and deservedly so especially given his course history. Most recently he won the 2021 U.S. Open which was hosted at Torrey Pines and the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open.

The Farmers Insurance Open will take place at Torrey Pines and will feature a multicourse setup like last week. It’s another unique event that features a great field loaded with some of the top talents in the world.

 

General Tournament Information:

  • Dates: January 25th, 2023- January 28th, 2023
  • Location: San Diego, California, United States
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
    • Wednesday – Thursday: 2 Course Rotation
      • Torrey Pines North Course
      • Torrey Pines South Course
    • Friday – Saturday: Torrey Pines South Course
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Pros & 156 Amateurs | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Purse/ Winner: $8,700,000 /$1,566,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2022: -3
    • 2021: -1
    • 2020: -1

 

Torrey Pines – South Course (3 Rounds)

  • Course: Torrey Pines South Course
  • Course Architect: William P. Bell and William F. Bell (1957)
  • Renovation: Rees Jones (2001, 2019)
  • Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,765 yards
  • Greens: Poa annua .095”
  • Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
  • Rough: Ryegrass overseed 3.5”
  • Stimpmeter: 11.5 feet
  • Bunkers: 82
  • Water Hazards:1 (In-Play on 1 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2022: 72.35 (+0.35), Rank 15 of 50
    • 2021: 73.34 (+1.34), Rank 4 of 51
    • 2020: 72.53 (+0.53), Rank 7 of 41
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Muirfield Village – the Memorial Tournament
    • Quail Hallow – 2021 Wells Fargo Championship
    • Riviera CC – The Genesis Invitational
  • Comparable Yardage (7,765 Yards):
    • This is the longest course on Tour
  • Comparable Greens (Poa annua .095”):
    • Spyglass Hill GC – Poa annua .100” – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
    • Riviera CC – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational
  • Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
    • PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – American Express
    • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
    • TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship

 

Torrey Pines – North Course (1 Round)

  • Course: Torrey Pines North Course
  • Course Architect: William P. Bell and William F. Bell (1957)
  • Renovation: Tom Weiskopf (2016)
  • Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,258 yards
  • Greens: Bentgrass .100”
  • Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
  • Rough: Ryegrass overseed 3.5”
  • Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
  • Bunkers: 42
  • Water Hazards:1 (In-Play on 1 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2022: 68.77 (-3.23), Rank 48 of 50
    • 2021: 70.13 (-1.87), Rank 44 of 51
    • 2020: 70.58 (-1.42), Rank 33 of 41
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Riviera CC – The Genesis Invitational
    • Club De Golf Chapultepec – Mexico Open/ WGC-Mexico Championship
  • Comparable Yardage (7,258 Yards):
    • TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • TPC Scottsdale – 7,261 Yards – WM Phoenix Open
  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass .100”):
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
    • Muirfield Village – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
  • Comparable Average Green Size (6,000 sq. ft.):
    • Monterey Peninsula CC (Shore Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
    • Puntacana (Corales Golf Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Corales Puntacana Championship
    • Port Royal Golf Course – 6,000 sq. ft. – Butterfield Bermuda Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Wednesday, January 25th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 2: Thursday, January 26th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 3: Friday, January 27th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM
    • CBS – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Saturday, January 28th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM
    • CBS – 4:30 PM – 8:00 PM

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Mostly Sunny 58 F, 8 mp/h NWW, 47% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Sunny 56 F, 16 mp/h NE, 30% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Sunny 57 F, 7 mp/h NW, 41% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 57 F, 11 mp/h SSW, 63% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Farmers Insurance Open will take place from Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.

The Farmers Insurance Open originated as the San Diego Open back in 1952. That name would last until 1958 when it was changed to the Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open. In 1992 Buick took over the sponsorship of the tournament and the name was changed to the Buick Invitational until 2009. In 2010 the name was switched to the Farmers Insurance Open and has remained that since then.

During the first few years of the event, the tournament bounced around different courses. However, in 1968 the tournament moved to Torrey Pines where it is currently played. The South Course at Torrey Pines has also hosted the U.S. Open twice in 2008 and most recently in 2021.

  • 72-Hole Record:
    • 266, George Burns (1987), Tiger Woods (1999)
  • 18-Hole Record (South Course):
    • 62, Tiger Woods (Round 3, 1999)
  • 18-Hole Record (North Course):
    • 61, Mark Brooks (Round 2, 1990), Brandt Snedeker (Round 1, 2007)
  • 18-Hole Record (North Course – Redesigned):
    • 62, Jon Rahm (Round 1, 2019), Ryan Palmer (Round 2, 2020), Alex Smalley (Round 2, 2022), Adam Schenk (Round 2, 2022)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

For the second week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. On Wednesday and Thursday, all golfers will play one round on the North and South course. Anyone who has made the cut after that will then play the final two rounds on the South course.

The South Course at Torrey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour. Due to its length and complex green designs, it plays as one of the toughest courses. The redesign in 2019 only increased the difficulty of the course with additional bunkers being added. The South course features Poa Annua greens which are notoriously difficult to score on.

Image

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

The North Course is by far the easier course of the two playing roughly 500 yards shorter in terms of distance. There’s also no water hazards on the course and has almost half as many bunkers as the South Course. The North Course also features pure bentgrass greens which are different from the South course. This course provides some more opportunities for birdies which players will need to capitalize on to compete this week.

Image

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
  • Proximity: 250+ Yards
  • Driving Distance
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

156 Players will compete in the Farmers Insurance Open this week. 5 of the top 10 players in the world are in the field.

  • Jon Rahm (+450), won his second event in a row last week at The American Express outdueling Davis Thompson. In Rahm’s four starts on Tour this year, he has never finished outside the top 10. He’s played in the Farmers Insurance Open six times before finishing 1/ T29/ T5/ 2/ T7/ T3.
  • Xander Schauffele (+1100), has finished top 10 in each of his first three starts this season. He did however withdraw at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Schauffele finished T34 last year at this event and T2 in 2021.
  • Tony Finau (+1100), won the Cadence Bank Houston Open back in November and has finished inside the top 20 in his last three starts since then. In his eight appearances at Torrey Pines, he has four top-10 finishes.
  • Justin Thomas (+1400), has only played three times this season finishing T40/ 5/ T25. He’ll make his second consecutive appearance at this event after finishing T20 last year.
  • Collin Morikawa (+1800), is trending towards a win finishing T45/ T29/T15/ 6/ 2 in his five starts this season. He last played in this event in 2020 when he finished T21.
  • Will Zalatoris (+1800), has only played twice this season finishing T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T36 at The American Express. He has some great course history here placing T7 in 2021 and 2nd in 2022.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Luke List (’22), Justin Rose (’19), Jason Day (’18, ’15), Jon Rahm (’17), Scott Stallings (’14)

Notable Withdraws: Max McGreevy, Mark Hubbard, Chex Reavie, Chris Stroud, John Huh

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

  • Jon Rahm: 1/ T29/ T5/ 2/ T7/ T3
  • Will Zalatoris: MC/ T7/ 2
  • Tony Finau: T24/ T18/ T4/ T6/ T13/ T6/ T2/ MC
  • Ryan Palmer: MC/ T35/ WD/ MC/ T2/ T13/ T21/ T2/ T16
  • Luke List: T68/ MC/ MC/ T12/ T40/ T36/ T10/ 1

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

  • Satoshi Kodaira: MC/ MC/ MC
  • Tyler Duncan: MC/ MC/ MC
  • Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ 77
  • Scott Harrington: MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Luke List (-15)
    • Price: 90-1
  • 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
    • Price: 25-1
  • 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
    • Price: 55-1
  • 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
    • Price: 14-1
  • 2018: Jason Day (-9)
    • Price: 22-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Will Zalatoris (+1800) – DraftKings
    • Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
  • Collin Morikawa (+2000) – DraftKings
    • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
  • Max Homa (+2500) – BetMGM
    • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Jason Day (+115) – DraftKings
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
  • Taylor Montgomery (+130) – DraftKings
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Luke List (+110) – FanDuel
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
  • Taylor Pendrith (+125) – FanDuel
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Farmers Insurance Open: 5.17 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

College Basketball 1/24/23 Tuesday Two-Pack – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

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54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

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62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Oklahoma vs TCU -6.5 O/U 138

We are smack dab into conference play, and hunting for undervalued dogs is what I like to do.   Oklahoma is a team that should be a little desperate here losing five out of their last 7 conference games.  They are currently on the bubble when it comes to the NCAA tournament and they desperately need a quadrant 1 win.  TCU is cruising after a nice win at the Phog on Saturday.  This is their first win EVER away vs Kansas and the kids are probably still celebrating.   In saying that, I now think that TCU is a bit overrated, and when it comes to this game, the numbers do not add up.  The Sooners play a slow calculated pace with great shooting ranking 18th in effective FG% to TCU’s 145th.  From down town, Oklahoma ranks 72nd in 3P% while TCU ranks a dismal 335th.   Now where TCU has an advantage is offensive boards ranking 31st in the nation, but on defense they only rank 286th with that fast pace.   The Sooners have a knack for playing good defense and that could hurt a Horned Frogs team fresh off of a huge win.   Lastly, the Sooners are a good away team ranking 55th in away from home games to TCU who is a poor home team ranking 322nd at their own court.  Gonna go with Oklahoma here to at least cover this spread and if they can limit the turnovers, they will have a chance to win this one outright.

Oklahoma +6.5 – 2 stars

Penn State vs Rutgers -6 O/U 130

This is a simple handicap for me.  Rutgers is a very good home team and there is no disagreement with that, but they are also a slower paced team who sometimes struggles on offense.  Rutgers effective FG% is only 47.5 ranking 295th in the nation.   They are great at defense and all ranking 10th in the nation in opponent FG%, but if opponents can come off the ball screen with clean looks, that could be a big problem for the Scarlet Knights.  According to shot quality bets, Penn State ranking 70th coming off ball screens while Rutgers ranks 199th in that Category.  Now Rutgers is good at finishing at the rim ranking 4th in the nation, but Penn State can defend that ranking 7th in the nation near the rim on defense.   If there is an area that Rutgers needs to improve on, it is defending the three ball only ranking 268th in catch and shoot threes.   Penn State ranks 53rd in the nation in catch and shoot threes and number six in three point percentage.  Take the Nittany Lions in a game where points will come at a premium.

Penn State +6 – 2 stars

 

 

NHL Preview & Picks – January 23rd, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We only have four games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Game Previews:

Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Florida Panthers: 23-20-5, 4th Atlantic (11-14-2 Away)
  • New York Rangers: 25-14-7, 3rd Metropolitan (11-9-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +110 +115 +1.5 (-210) o6.5 (-115)
New York Rangers -130 -135 -1.5 (+185) u6.5 (-105)

 

These teams faced off in the beginning of January where the Rangers defeated the Panthers 5-3.

After a slow start to the season, the Panthers have found their groove winning seven of their last ten games. Florida’s offense has been fantastic lately scoring at least four goals in each of their last five games.

The Rangers have won three of their last five games. New York’s offense has been sub-par as of late averaging 2.2 goals during that span. The total has gone under in each of the Rangers last four games overall.

FLA: A. Lyon (2-0-0), 2.55 GAA, .912 SV% [CONFIRMED]

NYR: J. Halak (5-6-1), 2.69 GAA, .901 SV%

 

Buffalo Sabres @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Buffalo Sabres: 23-19-3, 5th Atlantic (12-7-1 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 28-13-7, 1st Central (13-5-3 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Buffalo Sabres +165 +150 +1.5 (-150) o6.5 (-125)
Dallas Stars -195 -175 -1.5 (+130) u6.5 (+105)

 

These teams faced off in February where the Stars defeated the Sabres 4-2.

Buffalo has won their last two games defeating the Islanders and the Ducks. The Sabres are currenlty five points out of the playoffs with a game in hand on Pittsburgh.

Dallas has won three of their last four games. During that span, they shutout their opponents in each of those wins.

BUF: C. Anderson (7-6-2), 2.78 GAA, .917 SV%

DAL: J. Oettinger (21-7-4), 2.20 GAA, .926 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Pick(s):

  • Florida Panthers/ New York Rangers Under 6.5 (+102) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.26 Units

Florida’s offense has been great as of late but will face a tough New York Rangers squad tonight that allows the 4th fewest goals against. The Ranger’s haven’t allowed more than three goals against in their last five games. New York’s offense has been sub-par as of late averaging 2.2 goals during that same span. Jaroslav Halak is expected to get the nod tonight who has a 1.00 GAA in his last two games. Alex Lyon has been confirmed for Florida and has been solid as well with a 2.55 GAA and .912 SV% in his two starts.

  • Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-140) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.35 to win 0.25 Units

The Islanders are in a free fall losing eight of their last ten games including their last four. They’ve particularly struggled on the road going 1-7 in their last eight games. Sorokin has allowed at 4/3/4 goals against in his last three starts. Toronto is coming off a disappointing loss to the Canadiens in their last game. The Leaf’s have also been great at home this season going 17-3-4. Their numbers are much better at Scotiabank Arena averaging 3.50 GF/G and 2.38 GA/G compared to their overall numbers of 3.36 GF/G and 2.64 GA/G. I expect the Leafs to rebound at home and knock off the Islanders in Regulation.

 

Lean(s):

  • Dallas Stars in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings
  • Calgary Flames 1P -0.5 (-110) – DraftKings

 

Player Prop(s) to Target:

  • Carter Verhaeghe over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetRivers
    • Carter Verhaeghe has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Rangers rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.1. At home, that number drops slightly to 28.5. They also give up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. In their previous matchup against the Rangers this season, Verhaeghe recorded 4 shots on goal on 5 shot attempts.
  • Chris Kreider over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
    • Chris Kreider has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last four. The Panthers rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. On the road, that number drops slightly to 31.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on New York’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Panthers have taken five or more penalties in three of their last five games. Kreider has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against the Panthers.
  • Jason Robertson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
    • Jason Robertson has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Sabres rank 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.0. On the road, that number increases to 34.5. They also give up the 10th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. He’s on Dallas’ top Power Play which should see some of action tonight. Robertson has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in one of his two previous matchups against the Sabres.
  • Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
    • Tyler Toffoli has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last two. The Blue Jackets rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.9. On the road, that number increases to 35.2. They also give up the 15th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on New York’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Blue Jackets have taken three or more penalties in three of their last four games. Toffoli has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against the Blue Jackets.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Premiums, 1.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

Literally no time this morning. Maybe more picks later as things calm down at the household and I find more time to handicap. Here are my picks and nothing else, ha:

NBA Picks:
 
Pistons TT under 112.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
 
T-Wolves -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
 
Kings ML (-105), to win 1 unit
Grizzlies/Kings under 245.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
 
CBB Picks (26-23, +2.82 units):
 
Howard -8 (-110), to win 1 unit
 
Alcorn St. -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
 
Aussie Open (3-2, +3.54 units):
 
Rybakina/Ostapenko over 2.5 sets (+130), to win 1.3 units
 
Pegula wins 2-1 (Set Betting, +320), to win 3.2 units

Podcast 7 – 23 – NFL Divisional Recap – NFL Conference Week Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil recaps a big and profitable weekend of sports!  First, Kiev talks about the good the bad, and the ugly for last weekend in football.   Then, we get into some NFL football recap with box score analysis.  After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL conference Week!  Want to ask us something?  Or just want us to break down a game?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply. 

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC

NFL Divisional Weekend Sunday Funday Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Cincinnati vs Buffalo -6 O/U 49

I think the Bengals are a top three team in the league.   Last week against the Ravens was bad, and that is what good coaches like John Harbaugh does.  They ugly up games.  Roquan Smith has proven to be a pretty good asset on that Ravens defense.  In saying that Buffalo has a strong offense at 1.1 net yards per play towering over the Bengals at .1 net yards per play.  Buffalo looks to have advantages on the ground at 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, but some of that is Josh Allen’s legs himself.  Cincinnati strength is through the air matching Buffalo at 260 passing yards per game.  Both are top 5 in drop-back EPA and success rate.  The path for the Bills to cover this spread is on the ground as the Ravens showed us last week, but the Bills tend to not get the best out of their running game at times and only rank 16th in rush EPA even with the strong yards per attempt.  The Bills weakness is against the pass with their two best safeties out in Damar Hamlin and Micah Hyde early in the season.  This isn’t good news against Burrow and his 4 stud pass catchers in Higgens, Chase, Boyd and Hurst.  Don’t forget Mixon.  The Patriots showed that path to victory minus their special teams screw ups the final week of the season.  This is where the Bengals can stay in this game and keep it very close.   Now I know that Cincinnati has some bad offensive line injuries, but this is something that they delt with all year in 2022 and they made it to the Superbowl.  If the Bengals are smart, they also get Mixon very involved in the passing game and get him in some space.  Cinci looked good in the beginning of the cancelled game against the Bills a few weeks back.  I have the Bills -2.5 here.  I think the Bengals cover this spread with a shot to win it.

Bengals +6 – 3 stars – +205 ML for .5 stars
Bills sack prop over 2.5 sacks -110 – 2 stars

NHL Preview & Picks – January 21st, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We have fourteen games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Pick(s):

  • Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
    • The Islanders have been dreadful as of late losing eight of their last ten including their last three. Their offense has been stagnant averaging just 2 goals per game in their last ten. Oddly enough, they average fewer goals at home (2.87) compared to on the road (3.04). Ilya Sorokin who’s been confirmed as the Islanders’ starter for today has allowed at least three goals in his last two starts. Carolina has been finding their stride winning three of their last four games. Their lone loss was against Vancouver in a shootout. The Hurricanes do average slightly fewer goals for on the road but average the same amount of goals against. Since his return, Frederik Anderson has been great averaging just 1.67 goals against in his last three starts. Carolina’s defensive unit should be able to shut down the Islanders up front given their recent struggles. In their last matchup, the Hurricanes held the Islanders to just 16 shots on goal.
  • Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings

 

Lean(s):

  • Carolina Hurricanes/ New York Islanders Under 5.5 (-115) – DraftKings
  • Los Angeles Kings/ Nashville Predators Under 6.0 (-110) – DraftKings
 
 
 

Player Prop(s) to Target:

  • Matt Boldy over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-139) – Caesars
    • Matt Boldy has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Panthers rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. At home, that number increases to 32.4. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers. He’s on Minnesota’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Panthers have taken five or more penalties in three of their last five games.
  • William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – FanDuel
    • William Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Canadiens rank 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.9. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.2. They also give up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. He’s on Toronto’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Canadiens have taken three or more penalties in seven of their last ten games. Nylander has also recorded at least 4 shots on goal in each of his three previous matchups against Montreal.
  • Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-152) – BetRivers
    • Miro Heiskanen has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 6.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Coyotes rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.3. On the road, that number drops slightly to 33.3. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen. He’s on Toronto’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Coyotes have taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
  • Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-134) – BetRivers
    • Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.2 shots on goal and 7.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Canucks rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.3. At home, that number drops slightly to 31.0. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Centers. He’s on Edmonton’s top Power Play which should see some action tonight. McDavid has also recorded at least 4 shots on goal in each of his four previous matchups against Vancouver.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

UFC 283 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Luan Luiz Lacerda vs Cody Stamann – 370

This will be a good fight between a nobody who hasn’t lost in Luan and a somebody that hasn’t won the big competition in Cody.  I must say that I am not that impressed with Cody’s wins vs Brian Kelleher and Eddie Wineland.   In saying that, Cody has never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice.   Luan is Brazilian and that is important being this fight in Rio De Janeiro.  Lacerda has 12 wins and 1 loss dating back to 2014.   He is a BJJ blackbelt who has finished his opponents by submission 10 time out of his 12 wins.   He has never even been to the 3rd round since 2016.  I think that Lacerda has a great shot at winning this fight at +300, but I also think that it will be by submission and the juicy +600 price.   Just in case Lacerda gets knocked out, I am also taking this baby under 2.5 rounds being that you can get a juicy price at +175.

Luan Lacerda by sub +600 – 1 star
Under 2.5 rounds +175 – 1 star

January 21st CBB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): Iowa State/Oklahoma State 1H UNDER 58.5–1 PM CT

These are two of the best defenses in America, and both see their offensive play lag behind. Iowa State is the much better shot-making team, but do I expect them to knock down shots vs a Cowboys defense that is limiting opponents to just 29% from the outside this year? On the other hand, Oklahoma State is pretty porous shooting the basketball and also holds an ugly 0.9 assist/turnover ratio.

While pace will be on our side throughout the full game, this should be a down-to-the-wire game that could feature OT or late-game shenanigans. I know 58.5 is a low total, but it’s more than warranted. I’ll take a stab at this 1H Under.

*CBB(1u): Seton Hall +1.5 vs Marquette–3 PM CT

Marquette has found a way to maneuver quite a few close wins, but I don’t think they’ll enjoy that same luxury today. Unlike many Big East teams, Seton Hall has a legit Top 20 defense in CBB. They just forced a borderline elite UCONN offense into 17 turnovers and held the Huskies to less than 40% from the field. These sorts of teams have given Marquette issues this year; Mississippi State and Wisconsin both squeaked out wins over the Golden Eagles.

Seton Hall is in great current form having won 4 straight(including that aforementioned UCONN win). Marquette holds an edge in virtually every offensive category, but I will stick to my belief that Marquette does not have a Top 100 defense in CBB. In this sort of matchup, I’ll take the better defense that just happens to be catching points at home.

I thought about isolating this in the 1H given Marquette’s knack for strong 2H’s. The more I thought about it, the more I trust Seton Hall’s defense to close this game out. Marquette is not a very experienced group, and I think they falter on the road here.

Free Prop Play for NFL Divisional Week

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Giants vs Eagles

@theoddsbreakers

@betfredsports @kylehunterpicks @sportswageru @cubfandanny #freeplays #freepicks #NfL #sportsbetting #Eagles

♬ Sunny – Official Sound Studio

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