I have a lot of trust in Saint Louis’ offense even in this tricky road environment. The Billikens have one of the most experienced rosters in CBB, which should make it no surprise that they hold a stellar 1.5 assist/turnover ratio. Yet, I do think their defense, which ranks outside of the Top 100 according to KenPom, will have trouble in this spot. Iona is another very efficient offense that is even more careful with the basketball(1.8 assist/turnover ratio) and has a knack for hitting the 3 ball(37% 3pt). When you consider that neither of these teams play primarily in the half-court and both are excellent from the free throw line, I think we see this get played out in the upper 150’s.
*CBB(0.5u): NC State -22 vs Coppin State–6 PM CT
Coppin State is atrocious on both ends of the floor, yet they run at the 10th fastest pace in the country. When stepping up in competition, this formula is going to get you absolutely run off the floor. Some people may be resistant to back NC State after seeing them lose outright to Pitt last weekend, but let’s not forget that they looked virtually flawless in their prior 3 games vs Dayton, Butler, and William & Mary. The Wolfpack are going to pair pace with efficiency on both ends of the floor and cover with ease.
*CBB(0.5u): Oklahoma 1H -10 vs UMKC–7 PM CT
Both of these teams play at a snail’s pace(which is why the total is at 122.5), but UMKC is really outmatched on both ends of the floor. UMKC has been held to just 55 PPG vs Power 5 competition this year, and their defense ranks just 219th according to KenPom. We know Porter Mosier coached teams will be stiff defensively, and while I still have my hesitations about the Sooners offense, this clearly shouldn’t be a spot where they stumble. I like the Sooners to beat UMKC at their own game in rather loud fashion.
*CBB(0.5u): Sam Houston State/Oklahoma State 1H UNDER 61–8 PM CT
Sam Houston State is 2-0 vs Power 5 teams this year, and the formula has been quite simple: Muck games up. They beat Oklahoma by a score of 52-51 and Utah 65-55, and given my concerns about Oklahoma State’s true playmaking offensively, I think they can do the same here. Oklahoma State will have no trouble getting stops with their Top 25 defense against a clearly inferior Bearkats offense. I’d isolate the 1H Under because this has the potential to be a close game with quite a few points at the finish.
Nuggets are #1 in OFF EFF in the 1st QTR in November
Nuggets are the #1 shooting % team in the NBA, period (50%)
Nuggets lead the NBA with 32.3 ppg in the 1st quarter
Mavs coming off a big win, important victory yesterday against the Suns, high emotions, etc. – this is a let-down spot
Mavs distributed their minutes nicely last night but this is obviously a tougher spot off a back to back and on the road
Mavs also applied significant pressure and energy in the 1st half last night, effectively. They won’t approach this game quite the same way.
Mavs/Nuggets split this series so far and Nuggets have yet to eclipse 100 points in both of those games– time to turn it on, aka regression.
Taking DEN 1.5 in the 1Q
Lakers +4.5 (-112), to win 1.5 units
If this line goes up, and maybe it will, we might wager more. Jarrett Allen may come back for the Cavaliers and they better hope he does. Right now Anthony Davis is playing incredible basketball and while I’ve been the first to make fun of how soft he’s been in the past, he may have turned a page and found some extra motivation. With AD playing the way he is, a Lakers’ team coming together with Russ off the bench and Lebron slated to play, I like a close game here. I think the Lakers could lose straight up. One thing to note– LAL is right in the midst of a hellish road spot so maybe they’ll hit a rough patch on the tour but, so far so good. We may look to fade them Wednesday against the Raptors.
As most of you know — it’s probably one of the reasons why you’re subscribed to my premium picks — I’ve been arguably one of the best NBA handicappers in the world over the last two seasons. We’ve made over 130 units in that span and hit at a 57% win rate (490-375) on nearly 900 plays. It’s all documented via TheOddsBreakers and SportsCapping.
We also placed 5th in Circa in 2021. Needless to say, it’s been a sort of meteoric rise.
But after last night’s 0-6 result, I need to take a step back and review some things. As of now, we’re hitting at 52% and barely in the black in NBA. That’s not okay with me.
Obviously last night’s losses didn’t make a lot of sense. The Raptors and Heat were in perfect spots, and the Warriors just didn’t show up at home, which is wildly out of their norm (they entered last night’s game with an 11-1 record at the Chase Center). Regardless, losing my own money and especially losing yours is not something I take lightly.
In the coming days/weeks, I’ll have less plays overall (both in NBA and NFL). When I do have a play, it’ll be with a maximum amount of confidence only. I’ll likely reduce my unit size, too. Until we get in a better groove and the NBA starts presenting more consistent results from it’s wildly volatile players and teams, I’m not going to put my hard-earned money or your hard-earned money on the line as often. That would be irresponsible if I continued to do that as your service provider.
Appreciate you listening and understanding. Only one play today:
Lakers +4.5 (-112), to win 1.5 units
If this line goes up, and maybe it will, we might wager more. Jarrett Allen may come back for the Cavaliers and they better hope he does. Right now Anthony Davis is playing incredible basketball and while I’ve been the first to make fun of how soft he’s been in the past, he may have turned a page and found some extra motivation. With AD playing the way he is, a Lakers’ team coming together with Russ off the bench and Lebron slated to play, I like a close game here. I think the Lakers could lose straight up. One thing to note– LAL is right in the midst of a hellish road spot so maybe they’ll hit a rough patch on the tour but, so far so good. We may look to fade them Wednesday against the Raptors.
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a wonderful Championship weekend in college and some NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend as well as some listener questions. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 15! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for December 6th along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction [0:00 – 1:50]
Trivia Question of the Week [1:51 – 8:13]
Around the League
Boston Bruins – Historic Home Run [8:14 – 12:19]
New Jersey Devils – Can they keep this pace up? [12:20 – 14:29, 16:21 – 20:48]
Buffalo Sabres – Key Pieces needed to become more competitive [14:30 – 16:20]
Dallas Stars – Jason Roberston is a superstar [20:49 – 25:42]
Toronto Maple Leafs – Mitch Marner Point Streak [25:43 – 29:59]
Vegas Golden Knights – Can they win the West? [31:00 – 36:21]
Winnipeg Jets – Season Expectations [36:22 – 39:32]
Tampa Bay Lighting – Organizational Consistency [39:33 – 45:31]
Shots on Goal Goats & Woats [45:32 – 51:00]
NHL Preview/ Picks – December 6th, 2022 [51:01 – 77:16]
Detroit Red Wings @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Chicago Blackhawks @ New Jersey Devils
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Los Angeles Kings @ Ottawa Senators
St. Louis Blues @ New York Islanders
Florida Panthers @ Winnipeg Jets
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars
Montreal Canadiens @ Seattle Kraken
Carolina Hurricanes @ Anaheim Ducks
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Ankalaev + Pimblett ML Parlay (1.5 units to win 1.41 units) Ankalov is made of the same insane makeup that Khabib and his proteges are made of and although I love Jan Blachowicz and his power is real, Ankalov’s wrestling ability and toughness will be too much for the Polish power puncher. Pimblett is growing in popularity for good reasons. The dude is insanely gifted and can win in so many different ways. He’s facing a better fighter in this event but it’ll take a true elite for Paddy the Baddy to experience his first loss, in my opinion.
Bryce Mitchell (+125), to win 1.25 units
I’ve been watching this dude on social media and he’s just a tough-ass country boy who’s trained differently, in the boondocks, since he was a kid. His opponent hasn’t lost a professional bout but he’s a little overconfident for my liking. Dude hasn’t faced an imposing fighter and I love that Mitchell will have a reach, height, and TD advantage. He also has an insane 75% significant strike percentage. I’m going country-boy-USA!
More plays incoming once the derivatives wagers open.
If this line goes up, and maybe it will, we might wager more. Jarrett Allen may come back for the Cavaliers and they better hope he does. Right now Anthony Davis is playing incredible basketball and while I’ve been the first to make fun of how soft he’s been in the past, he may have turned a page and found some extra motivation. With AD playing the way he is, a Lakers’ team coming together with Russ off the bench and Lebron slated to play, I like a close game here. I think the Lakers could lose straight up. One thing to note– LAL is right in the midst of a hellish road spot so maybe they’ll hit a rough patch on the tour but, so far so good. We may look to fade them Wednesday against the Raptors.
We have a six-game slate tonight taking place across the NHL. The only real marquee matchup tonight is the Golden Knights against the Bruins. I break down all the games and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Game Previews:
Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Colorado Avalanche: 13-8-1, 3rd Central (8-5-0 Away)
Philadelphia Flyers: 8-12-5, 7th Metropolitan (5-7-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-190
-200
-1.5 (+130)
o5.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Flyers
+160
+170
+1.5 (-150)
u5.5 (-105)
The Flyers enter this matchup on a two game losing streak dropping home games to the Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils. Philadelphia is riddled with injuries right now including Ryan Ellis, Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk and Cam Atkinson. These injuries also haven’t helped their offensive woes as they rank dead last in GF/G.
Colorado opened up December with a win at Buffalo but followed that up with a 5-1 loss in Boston. Just like Philadelphia, Colorado has several key players out. Even with a depleted lineup, the Avalanche have been able to scratch out victories going 13-8-1 overall.
COL: A. Georgiev (11-3-1), 2.58 GAA, .922 SV%
PHI: C. Hart (7-7-4), 2.82 GAA, .911 SV%
St. Louis Blues @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
St. Louis Blues: 11-13-0, 6th Central (6-7-0 Away)
New York Rangers: 11-10-5, 5th Metropolitan (4-6-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
St. Louis Blues
+145
+145
+1.5 (-170)
o5.5 (-120)
New York Rangers
-170
-170
-1.5 (+145)
u5.5 (+100)
The Blues have had an up and down season to say the least. They started off the year on an eight game losing streak then followed that up with a seven game winning streak. However, they’ve regressed since that run losing five of their last six. Jordan Binnington has been sub-par to start the year after he played extremely well during the post season last season.
New York is also in a slump of their own losing their last two games overall. At home, they haven’t won since November 13th. The Rangers have been able to generate chances up front but have had issues capitalizing on those opportunities. Igor Shesterkin has also regressed slightly from his Vezina winning performance last year.
STL: J. Binnington (9-10-0), 3.27 GAA, .895 SV%
NYR: I. Shesterkin (10-4-4), 2.59 GAA, .913 SV%
Vegas Golden Knights @ Boston Bruins
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Vegas Golden Knights: 18-7-1, 1st Pacific (9-1-1 Away)
Boston Bruins: 20-3-0,1st Atlantic (14-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Vegas Golden Knights
+140
+155
+1.5 (-165)
o6.0 (-110)
Boston Bruins
-165
-180
-1.5 (+140)
u6.0 (-110)
The Golden Knights and Boston Bruins have both had excellent starts to the year under new head coaches. Bruce Cassidy, the current head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights, will make his first return to Boston after being let go in the offseason.
Vegas had a major question mark to start the year off in net and Logan Thompson has firmly cemented himself as their number one guy. The Golden Knights have oddly enough been better on the road this year with a 11-2-1 record. Vegas does have a few key members of their team sidelined with Jack Eichel also being questionable for tonight’s matchup.
Boston has yet to lose at TD Garden this season with a 14-0-0 record. Linus Ulmark has been phenomenal for them with a +10.6 GSAx. Their offense and defense hasn’t been to bad either as they lead the NHL in GF/G and GA/G.
VGS: L. Thompson (12-5-0), 2.53 GAA, .920 SV%
BOS: L. Ullmark (14-1-0), 1.93 GAA, .936 SV%
Washington Capitals @ Edmonton Oilers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Washington Capitals: 10-12-4, 6th Metropolitan (3-8-3 Away)
The Capitals have lost three of their last four games including seven of their last eight on the road. They’ve been plagued by injuries since the start of the year, specially up front. Their depleted lineup has proved costly for them ranking 27th in GF/G.
Following a trip to the Western Conference Finals last year, the Oilers have gotten off to a mediocre start. Their offense has picked up right where they’ve left off but new goaltender Jack Campbell has had a less than ideal start. Through his first thirteen starts he has a 4.12 GAA and ranks 3rd last in GSAx.
WSH: C. Lindgren (2-3-2), 3.51 GAA, .890 SV%
EDM: S. Skinner (7-5-0), 2.91 GAA, .914 SV%
Arizona Coyotes @ Calgary Flames
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Arizona Coyotes: 7-11-4, 7th Central (6-9-3 Away)
Calgary Flames: 11-10-3, 5th Pacific (8-5-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Arizona Coyotes
+275
+280
+1.5 (+105)
o6.0 (-110)
Calgary Flames
-330
-340
-1.5 (-125)
u6.0 (-110)
The Arizona State Coyotes have lost four straight including eight of their last nine. There hasn’t been many positives for this team as they rank 28th in GF/G and 22nd in GA/G. Arizona’s last win against the Flames was back on November 16th, 2019.
After making some major offseason moves, the Flames have yet to fully click as a unit. They continue to generate a ton of chances but fail to capitalize on them ranking 29th in Shooting %. Their defense has been great but Jacob Markstrom has had issues with a -0.1 GSAx.
ARI: K. Vejmelka (6-6-3), 3.03 GAA, .913 SV%
CGY: D. Vladar (3-4-1), 2.61 GAA, .915 SV%
Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Montreal Canadiens: 12-11-1, 6th Atlantic (6-5-1 Away)
Vancouver Canucks: 10-12-3, 6th Pacific (4-6-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Montreal Canadiens
+175
+205
+1.5 (-130)
o6.5 (-120)
Vancouver Canucks
-205
-245
-1.5 (+110)
u6.5 (+100)
These teams have already squared off once before this season on November 9th. The Canadiens defeated the Canucks 5-2 behind a two goal night from Kirby Dach.
The Canadiens will play their third consecutive road game tonight. They split their first two games, defeating the Flames and losing to the Oilers most recently. Montreal hasn’t really excelled on offense or defense but has found ways to win games. Sam Montembeault has been great for them ranking 10th in GSAx with a +6.3.
The Canucks have struggled at home this year with a 4-6-1 record. They narrowly defeated the Coyotes on Saturday and will look for revenge on the Canadiens tonight. They’ve been solid up front but with a subpar defensive unit and goaltending, they’ve had issues closing out games.
MTL: S. Montembeault (5-2-1), 2.47 GAA, .924 SV%
VAN: S. Martin (7-2-1), 3.08 GAA, .901 SV%
Pick(s):
Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
It seems like a tale of two stories with these teams. The Capitals are in a downward spiral losing three of their last four while Edmonton has won four of their last five. The Capitals have struggled all season on the road with a 3-8-3 record. They’ve been injury riddled from the start and their offense specially has paid the price. Edmonton has started to round into form of that team we saw make a deep playoff push last season. They still need to improve along the blue line but their offense has scored at least three goals in each of their past five games. It’s looking like Stuart Skinner will get that start for them who’s been their best option in net this year which makes me like this play even more. I believe the Oilers can take care of business at home and win this one in regulation.
Player Props to Target:
Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110) – DraftKings
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 SOG and 6.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Avalanche rank 25th in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 4th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-118) – BetRivers
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and 6.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Blues rank 26th in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 10th most SOG per game to Centers.
Noah Hanifin over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – DraftKings
He’s only gone over this number twice in his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 1.6 SOG and 4.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Coyotes rank 30th in SOG Allowed per game and give up the most SOG per game to Defensemen.
Elias Pettersson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175) – DraftKings
He’s gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 SOG and 8.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Canadiens rank 23rd in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 15th most SOG per game to Centers.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
The Grizzlies are sitting everyone, apparently, so we have to play Miami at -4, too.
Raptors ML (even), to win 1.5 units
The Celtics are fresh off a tough battle with the Nets in Brooklyn and now they have to turn around, go over the border, and face a Raptors team that’s exceptionally healthy and in a much better spot at home. This is where the great can fall. The Celtics are good but they’re not a Warriors-like team of yesterday that can win 70 games. I think they lose Monday.
Heat +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Heat -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Grizzlies played Sunday, while the Heat are coming off 3 days of rest from a big OT win against Boston. The injury report suggests this could be a game where a lot of Miami players sit but I think not. The important dudes- Strus, Vincent, Herro, Butler– should all be in. Since we think that’s the case, it’s unlikely Memphis will be able to deal with Miami at full strength, especially in a back to back. Since they’re at home and Ja is a superstar, I’ll take the points instead of the ML.
Pacers/Warriors over 241 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pacers/Warriors 1Q over 61.5 (-102), to win 1.5 units
Pacers/Warriors over 237.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a sky-high total but it should be. So far the Warriors are unable to play any brand of solid defense this season (it probably has to do with their constant rotations to work-in the young blood), and the Pacers play as fast as any team in the NBA and they’re an offense-first outfit. Two teams that should be chasing one another, I’ll take the over. Only 1 unit since my number has it close at 244.
Tripling down on the Warriors/Pacers total, God help us, because we disagree with the line movement. Both teams score and run really fast early, so we’ll play on that, too.
Raptors ML (even), to win 1.5 units
The Celtics are fresh off a tough battle with the Nets in Brooklyn and now they have to turn around, go over the border, and face a Raptors team that’s exceptionally healthy and in a much better spot at home. This is where the great can fall. The Celtics are good but they’re not a Warriors-like team of yesterday that can win 70 games. I think they lose Monday.
Heat +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizzlies played Sunday, while the Heat are coming off 3 days of rest from a big OT win against Boston. The injury report suggests this could be a game where a lot of Miami players sit but I think not. The important dudes- Strus, Vincent, Herro, Butler– should all be in. Since we think that’s the case, it’s unlikely Memphis will be able to deal with Miami at full strength, especially in a back to back. Since they’re at home and Ja is a superstar, I’ll take the points instead of the ML.
Pacers/Warriors over 241 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pacers/Warriors 1Q over 61.5 (-102), to win 1.5 units
Pacers/Warriors over 237.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a sky-high total but it should be. So far the Warriors are unable to play any brand of solid defense this season (it probably has to do with their constant rotations to work-in the young blood), and the Pacers play as fast as any team in the NBA and they’re an offense-first outfit. Two teams that should be chasing one another, I’ll take the over. Only 1 unit since my number has it close at 244.
